Rates & Barrels - Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Other Top Waiver Targets

Episode Date: April 28, 2023

DVR and Al consider how aggressively they want to pursue Guardians pitching prospects Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen, now that they have made their major league debuts. They also discuss the shallow-league appeal of Jack Suwinski and Jason Heyward and identify the streamable pitchers with the best upcoming matchups. Rundown 0:54 Prospect promotions and demotions 22:13 Injury fallout 28:35 Hitter developments 40:14 Notable pitchers 51:09 Streamers and two-start pitchers 1:02:13 Bullpen update Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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I'm Derek Van Ryper here with Al Melchior. As we do each and every Friday, we take a look ahead at the potential waiver wire pickups this weekend. As I say on a regular basis on these Friday shows, a lot can change between now and Sunday when FAB actually runs in many of these leagues. But this is just kind of the beginning of that conversation. This should help you at least have some fundamental ideas about what you're likely to be looking at this weekend, the types of players you're thinking about, and maybe some of the strategies you might want to use as far as bids.

Of course, we may talk about a few players to drop because we had some demotions this week, so a lot of ground to cover. But we begin with more pitching, Al. More young pitching joins the pool. We saw Logan Allen debut for the Guardians last week Sunday, which means in NFBC formats he was not eligible to be picked up yet unless he was drafted in leagues. I don't think he was drafted in many, if any, of those leagues,

so this will be the first crack at him. And then Tanner Bybee got the call this week as well. So we have two very talented pitchers joining the Cleveland rotation, at least for a little while, perhaps longer. We have a Taj Bradley demotion fresh on our minds right now. We've talked about that throughout the week, maybe being a very short term sort of thing. Are you thinking about throwing big bids at one or both of Bybee and Allen this weekend, given the need for quality pitching on pretty much every roster in fantasy baseball right now? Yeah, I think it's probably not realistic to really pursue both of them.

And I had a hard time for the waiver column deciding which to prioritize. I feel like they're very equal in terms of the value that I would expect from them this season. I gave a little bit of an edge to Bybee, but yeah, I think you definitely need to go all in on one. And then of course, whoever you don't prioritize, you make them the contingent bid because that's not really a consolation prize to get your second choice out of this pair. So yeah, I'm imagining, I think we said this maybe last week too, DBR, about Mason Miller, that it would probably be reasonable to expect bids around 20%. And if it was true for Miller, it's definitely true for these two. Yeah, I think Bybee in particular is going to fetch similar bids to Mason Miller.

There's more polish, probably fewer concerns about innings caps. I would say probably a much greater floor because of the support in cast, both in terms of the lineup. Even though the Guardians lineup has actually been outperformed by the A's so far, by WRC+. I don't expect that to continue. I would say the bullpen support behind Bybee and Allen is also a lot better than what you get for the bullpen support behind Mason Miller. And I say that as someone that got Mason Miller in a few leagues and wanted to get Mason Miller in a few leagues last weekend.

I realize that if you win a few of these pitchers early in the season, half your fab budget can be gone before you even get to the end of May. That's always a possibility. So if you're bidding on multiples and bidding big on multiples, it's probably because you either didn't have enough pitching to begin with this season or because you've been really on the wrong end of some injuries early on as well, which is totally possible. I think the argument in favor of continuing to be aggressive is that eventually, and we're not that far away from this point, the very best of the best prospects will have all been promoted,

or the best of the best prospects that you'll see will be guys who are stuck in the minors for the rest of this season because they started at high A this year, and they're just not going to be ready to pitch in the big leagues. So we will eventually run out of players like this to bid on, but there will be a few more weeks like this. I mean, Brandon Fott, if he hasn't been kept the entire time in leagues, seems almost certain to come up and take

a spot in this Arizona rotation with all the shuffling they've been doing. Andrew Painter, you know, with health, I think we'd see him. Ricky Tiedemann at some point for the Blue Jays, probably Kyle Harrison later in the year for the Giants. There's a few more than that even too. D.L. Hall could earn a spot in that Orioles rotation. So it's not as though if you miss here, you won't have other chances. But the timing on all those could be mostly a month or two months later than this. So that window to get these extra starts is significant. I think Bybee is actually a couple notches better than Allen, which says more to me about Bybee's ceiling. I think Bybee and Taj Bradley are kind of like

1A and 1B as far as the pitchers that have been called up so far this year. If Allen and Mason Miller were both available at the same time, I would actually prefer Mason Miller to Logan Allen by a slight margin. So I would say I'm in the 20 plus percent bids. If you want to be aggressive with Bybee, I'm closer to like a 10 or a 12% bid on Allen. It might be enough. It might not be, but I won't feel as bad missing out on Allen as I will feel if I miss out on Bybee this weekend. Yeah. Well, and I came down on that side of it too. Now I want to present a caveat too for anybody who's read the waiver comp, because I did not recommend 20% bids. And I don't know that I'll recommend 20% bids for anybody maybe coming up going forward

because it's just there have been some players, we've mentioned Bradley and Miller, that have gotten large bids already. So to recommend that there's two pitchers this week that you should bid 20% or more on, I just, it probably, I'm making recommendations based on what I am likely to do and facing facts that I'm probably not likely to get either of these pitchers. So obviously, yeah, you, you, you know, seasoned to your own taste. And if you're in the situations DVR, like you mentioned it being much more needy of, of, of pitching on, on some teams than others, just as an example, then yeah, I think you do go 20%, maybe even 25%, at least on your first preference of the two. Yeah, exactly.

The need is what dictates the actual cap on that bid. But if you're not desperate for pitching, you're just trying to keep the rest of the league honest, 12% to 15% on Bybee I think is a very reasonable place to go. And Allen for me would be more like an 8% to 10% sort of bid if you're in that, keep them honest sort of approach where you're happy to get them, but you're not in a bad spot. If you don't,

that's the best way to look at it with Tanner Bybee though. We've seen the premium velocity. There's command. It's really four pitches in that arsenal. There's just a ton to like the only thing that's working against him. Same thing that works against any young pitcher. We're at the whims of the organization as far as what the schedule looks like and whether or not he's up for good or not. He's up for now. That's the way the Guardians have set it to this point. I look at

that depth chart. Eno's looked at that depth chart. You've looked at this depth chart. And I keep coming away with this conclusion that if the Guardians are serious about being a playoff team this year, they need guys like Bybee and Allen to be in the rotation because they are not going to out hit teams. They need to be excellent in run prevention. And being excellent in run prevention is choosing Bybee and choosing Allen ahead of the likes of Zach Plesak and Peyton Battenfield and even Aaron Savali to some extent. I know he's hurt right now.

So I just think there's enough room here, especially with Tristan McKenzie still in the 60-day IL, for both Bybee and Allen to get a prolonged look here and possibly earn permanent call-ups going forward. Yeah. We can't know what the Guardians are going to do, but when you compare their situations to, say, Taj Bradley's, where we've already seen him get demoted twice, and we see the depth of that rotation. And you and I have talked about on previous episodes, how is this going to work long-term for Bradley to get innings at the major league level? So I'm with you in terms of liking Bradley as much as any pitching prospect that's been up so far, but his situation is so much worse. You could see him being yo-yoed back

and forth at least throughout the first half of the season. Whereas the Guardians really need Bybee and Allen in their rotation. There's not a major roadblock there, especially while McKenzie's out. It should go without saying, but it's worth bringing up just to make sure everybody understands there's a clear benefit to being ahead of the call-up, ahead of the debut. Some leagues allow you to pick up anybody you want whenever you want. If you can do that, you should be looking at the pitchers who are thriving at AAA, who are most likely to be discussed on a future episode of this podcast

because they will be very inexpensive, relatively speaking, if you're in a league that utilizes fab. We've talked about Gavin Stone, I believe, in recent weeks. Fott comes up like every other episode of this podcast. I think he's already rostered most places. If he's not, get him before he gets called up because otherwise you're talking about 15%, 20% bids on a guy like that as well. Andrew Abbott is someone you wrote about for the column, waiver column this week on The

Athletic. He's already up at AAA, was dominating at AA, put up some really big strikeout numbers at each of his stops a season ago. dominating at double A, put up some really big strikeout numbers at each of his stops a season ago. It's so easy to look at the Reds right now and say, there's a spot, Luke Weaver's taking turns. There's a spot, Luis Cesar's taking turns, right? Their big three, Hunter Green, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft right now,

it's just that. It's only three. Two wide open spots, and I think you reach a point with pitching prospects, even when you're rebuilding, as the Reds are right now, where you say, why would I let this guy waste pitches in the minor leagues? Why not finish his development in the big leagues? Because if you're the Reds, you want this group of young starters to be polished and ready to compete when your core group position players all shows up in these next couple of years. You don't want growing pains in 2024 and 2025 from your young starting pitchers if you can avoid them. I think one way to avoid them is to be a little more aggressive

with the time in their promotion. I'm just curious, how do you stack some of these these options up as far as you know abbott stone fought are they similar to you or it's just important to have one because these guys can be so impactful and you can save so much fab by using at least one roster spot to stash one away i don't think they're exactly equivalent uh because as you said fought he's already pretty widely rostered. But if you can still get him, you do need to add him because it's probably just any time. I mean, he was already in the conversation for filling a rotation spot for the Diamondbacks. And so his call-up seems pretty imminent, whereas Abbott just got promoted this past week from AA to AAA. So I don't think that they're just going to push him up to the final rung right away, but at least he's at that next step in AAA.

So it's a sliding scale. So Abbott's not that widely rostered yet. He is. Part of the reason that I put him in the column this week is he is on most added lists. So people are already starting to make that move in deeper leagues. So it's totally appropriate if he's out there in any sort of dynasty league where you can add him, you absolutely have to add Abbott right now. If you're in a, you know, maybe 15 team, certainly 16 team, 18 team league, I'd say stash him now.

But the urgency isn't the same as, you know, in a 12 team league where maybe Fott is out there potentially. If it's between somebody like Fott and Abbott, it's no contest. For no reason, just because of the likely timetable of those pitchers to come up. What's going to be interesting too, as we get more numbers for the project prospect episodes in the coming weeks we should get some pitching model data from avid and i think the reason it's important to see it is because this is a prospect who's had questions about his command and i just want to see where he's at in the model in terms of locating the pitches where he needs to.

It's a fastball-curveball changeup combo that he uses, a lefty that doesn't, I don't think he throws particularly hard, but it's just been a really tough angle, tough arm slot, tough something for opposing hitters to figure out so far when you look at those strikeout totals that he's been posting going back to last year. Started last year at high A, may finish this year in the major leagues. Now, other players to discuss, I mean, Taj Bradley, I've said throughout the week, I'm holding him. I just think it's only going to be a couple of weeks in part because you're talking about a raise rotation full of guys that have dealt with a lot of injuries in recent years. So I don't think it's going to take that long. And even if

it's just a matter of waiting for him to get onto that every fifth day schedule, if the rays are telling some truth in what they're doing and trying to get him down there to get him stretched back out, maybe bring his pitch count down, have him work every fifth day, push it back up to the 80 pitch range. That only takes a few weeks before he's ready to go.

So I think I'd be just as content to hold Bradley for the next couple of weeks as it would be to go out and try and add another one of these pitchers who has not debuted yet. I think if you're choosing between Bradley and one of the Guardians pitchers because you only have the one roster spot, that's a really difficult game to play, especially if Bradley was an expensive addition for you via FAB.

Yeah, I can't conceive of the situation where I would want to drop Bradley. And if I was really wanting to add one of those Cleveland pitchers, I would be looking anywhere to make room for him other than Bradley. Even though I said, you know, I could see that Bradley, this maybe is not his last emotion for the year, but he's going to pay off for you at some point. And you don't want to throw him back in the pool if you can avoid it at all. So Yanni Chirinos is going to be the member of the rotation in place of Taj Bradley. And Yanni put up some pretty good numbers back in 2019.

It was 133 in the third innings, mostly as a starter. I think eight appearances came out of the bullpen that year. It was a 385 ERA, a 105 whip, 114 Ks in those innings, mostly as a starter. I think eight appearances came out of the bullpen that year. It was a.385 ERA, a.105 whip, 114 Ks in those innings, so a little light in terms of strikeout rate, but it does a good job minimizing walks. We know with the opener and the different techniques the Rays use, not overexposing their starting pitchers. Win probability can be pretty high there. I actually like Yanni Chirinos a decent amount, Al. I just think it's silly that they're using him over a guy that I think is clearly better. What I want to see this weekend, we're going to see Yanni Chirinos pitch against the White Sox on Saturday, is how much he's able to push up that pitch count.

Because he's been working in a multi-inning relief role so far this season. We've seen him throw between 37 and 46 pitches in each of his first three outings for the Rays. So you don't really expect to jump by more than about 15 pitches per outing, which would make it very difficult to roster him, or at least to have him active as a starter in most leagues if you look ahead to the upcoming week. The matchup is really good. He's got a matchup against the Pirates at home

as he stays on that same schedule. But if he's only going to throw 60 or 65 pitches in that start, that's not necessarily going to play particularly well. And this is just a problem in general, I think, that you often see with the raised fifth starters or fifth starter slash follower, whatever the role is, you can't expect them to go a lot of innings. So yeah, on a different team in a different context, I have some interest in Chirinos, but there's just so much depth there. And you add that with the still somewhat unorthodox things

that the Rays do in terms of pitching roles, and there's just not enough upside there. And looking at Eno's pitching model, it's interesting because there's a couple of good pitches in that arsenal and the overall body of work so far to the bullpen. And fewer than 10 innings doesn't pop yet. So I'm just really curious to see what this expanded role starts to bring from him. Josh Fleming also sort of benefits from Bradley's demotion as a guy that's going to pick up bulk innings as well. I always find it difficult to utilize Fleming when I think he's going to be good for five plus innings and feel like I can steal a win. Usually

it's a two start week or a two turn week for him. It doesn't seem to work out. And then there's times when he's just sitting there on the wire, he's on someone else's roster and I'm watching him and he deals. He goes and pitches as well as he did in his last outing. And I just find that to be very frustrating. It kind of seems like he's the new Ryan Yarbrough in Tampa Bay. Yeah, absolutely. And that was a frustration I had with Yarbrough for years. And it doesn't look like he's necessarily gotten a better, more stable role with the Royals.

No, same old Ryan Yarbrough in Kansas City. But yeah, six scoreless last time out for Josh Fleming against Houston. Only two strikeouts. That's the thing with Fleming, too. You know you're probably not getting a big strikeout rate from him most of the time. The most extensive body of work we've seen him in the big leagues back in 2021, 65 Ks in 104 in a third inning. So we sort of know what he is. But for now, those are the two guys that are benefiting from Taj Bradley being back at AAA Durham.

I'm curious to know, what are you doing with Jordan Walker? Are you patiently waiting it out with him, same as you would be if you had Taj Bradley? I mean, the ceiling is incredibly high. The timing of the demotion was a little odd. The biggest flaw for Jordan Walker, we talked about this on the 3-0 show in the Athletic Baseball Show feed. Britt Giroli brought this up. Defensive run save. Jordan Walker, I believe, was a minus five already on the season, which is just hard to do in a month. As a hitter, he was basically a league average hitter by WRC+. He just seemed like the guy that got squeezed off the roster because he was the youngest. He hadn't played a AAA before, and

the Cardinals wanted to just make sure they shored up the position group for a little while. Yeah. Well, I still, I wouldn't be dropping Walker. I mean, I suppose possibly in 10 team leagues, but anything, you know, 12 and up. No, I mean, he, like you said, he hit fine while he was up. And the Cardinals, you know, every team now has a DH slot. So I'm sure there's a way to get Walker in the lineup. And I don't expect that he'll be down for long. So you can only stash so many players.

We've already talked about several to make room for, but Walker is somebody you definitely want to keep. And if you've caught the unfortunate have multiples like this, if you have both Walker and Bradley right now, you may be forced to end up dropping one of them. That's just the way things go. Eventually you do have to make the kind of moves to have someone available who can actually help you.

Alec Burleson, I think, plays even more now. I think this really just stabilizes playing time across that entire group where everybody was losing a little bit of time with a rotation as deep as it was when Jordan Walker was a part of it. Now we'll see what Burleson can do. I feel like when I watch Burleson play out, it's the same problem that they had with Walker. I just don't think Burleson's a good defender in the outfield at all. And then it comes down to who you believe in more as a hitter.

But I guess the thinking may have also been you don't want to take Jordan Walker out of the lineup a couple times a week. You want him to play every single day. We'll see how long they stick with this. It just seems like a trade is almost a certainty in St. Louis. If an injury or something else doesn't shake things up a little bit sooner for this roster. We did have one promotion, Joey Ortiz up for the Orioles. There were other promotions, one notable promotion, Joey Ortiz up for the Orioles. There were other promotions, one notable promotion. Joey Ortiz debuted for the Orioles on Thursday with one for three with three RBIs.

I think the logic here is that he's probably going to play a lot against left-handed pitching, and he's probably going to play a lot of second base. Now, I think the question is, if the Orioles like what they see with Ortiz, does he start to eat into the playing time of other fantasy-relevant players that we're very interested in? Does it start to hurt Gunnar Henderson at some point? Does it hurt Jorge Mateo at some point? My lean is no. I think it hurts guys like Adam Frazier and Ramon Arias. I think the guys on the margins of this

roster are much more likely to lose little bits of playing time than the young core guys. I feel like if they were going to do something with Henderson, it'd be what the Cardinals just did with Jordan Walker. And I don't think they're at that point yet. Because the more I look at the underlying numbers from Gunnar Henderson, the more confident I am that this is just a reasonably slow start for a guy finding his footing in the big leagues. Yeah, no, I agree. And I,

yeah, it's a little bit puzzling why Ortiz, at least to start is going to be on that thinner side of the platoon, because you wouldn't think Adam Frazier would be, be blocking a good prospect, but at least that for now that that seems to be the plan. And it was for that reason. I did keep Ortiz out of the waiver column this week

because I'm not confident that he's going to grab that playing time against righty starters. But it's definitely one to watch. Ortiz is definitely somebody, I think, to add in your 15-teamers. And probably now is a good time to do it because with people in your league probably being aware that he's on the short side of a platoon, it probably won't take much to get Ortiz because I do think eventually he'll start to cut into Frazier's playing time. Yeah, I think that's the way it's likely to go.

If he handles the small side role, they'll start to give him those extra bumps in playing time. I do think when I look at the league type that I would pick him up in, 15 teams seems like the cutoff. I think any league in which you were thinking about Jordan Diaz this time last weekend as he gets more opportunities to play in Oakland, any league where you would have rostered him, that's about the cutoff for Joey Ortiz right now. Longer term, it's really tough to know who's going to get traded, who's going to get opportunities in other organizations, who's going to get opportunities in other organizations, who's going to end up in more hitter-friendly environments and better lineups

because the Orioles have so many position player prospects knocking on the door for the big leagues. And Ortiz is the kind of player that I think would be a starting shortstop a lot of places and one that has at least, I think, average across-the-board offensive skills. So that tends to play really well in those deeper formats. And I think in like a 10-team league or a 12-team league, he'd have to end up in a situation where he has a clear-cut everyday job

before I'd begin to even put him in that conversation. But definitely a good prospect, even if he's not necessarily going to get everyday run here in the near future. Whoa, what are you listening to this for? Wait, who's talking? You know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa built-in, so you can change the music. Oh yeah, Alexa, change station to 99.2. See? Purchase a 2024 Escape ST-Line all-wheel drive with Tech Pack at 3.49% APR for 72 months with down payment. That's just $267 bi-weekly, APR for 72 months with down payment.

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Good night, kids. Good night, mama. Life's a trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Some other news from this week that could be pretty relevant for the weekend. Kenta Maeda is headed to the IL. Make the most of it at Best Western. had with changing some pitchers. Simeon Woods Richardson debuted last weekend. Louis Varlin looked really good in his first taste of the big leagues in 2023. So one or both of those guys could be among the players getting another look. Bailey Ober is part of that conversation as well. So as you kind of sift through three seemingly viable big league options for two spots,

how do you want to prioritize the replacements for Maeda and Malley in the near future? For me, it's pretty clear. Ober, the highest priority for sure. Somebody who I think you could even think about in 12-team leagues. And then Varland and then Woods Richardson. I think he's, at this point, if he were to be called up for me, I'm not even sure I would bid on him or at least more than a small contingency bid in 15-teamers. But yeah, Varlund, I'd feel pretty good about going after in a 15-teamer if he does get the call.

Louis Varlund, I think, is of the players in the pitching plus model so far this season. Among the biggest surprises, I think, when you look at what he was able to do across the board, everything looked great. Numbers, a 115 stuff plus number, 107 location plus, and a 103 overall. I mean, those are traits

that you see in very good starters, like potential top 40, top 50 starters. So that's a really encouraging sign for his development and for the Twins. So as long as he's the guy that actually emerges for one of these two spots, I think he could be a little bit of an underrated sort of ad. When you think about the amount of money we're talking about people throwing

at the likes of Bybee and Allen, if Louis Varlin, by comparison, is going to go for 3% to 5% of a budget, and again, a lot of this is going to hinge on the schedule and who actually lines up on the appropriate day. We've got to keep an eye on that over the course of the weekend, who gets scratched from various starts in the minor leagues. If Varlin's going to get one of those spots, I'm very interested in picking him up.

It's a four-pitch arsenal. He's got a four-seamer, he's got a slider, he's got a cutter, he's got a changeup, and he mixes those pitches really well. So a bit of a sleeper and a guy that in a keeper or a dynasty league, if he's out there on the waiver wire, I might put the extra couple of dollars on too, because eventually he's probably going to have a spot to call his own. Yeah. I think it's just a matter of time, sort of like the situation in Cleveland, maybe not quite as wide open, but I think with Ober and with Varlin in particular, it's just a question of time.

Probably coming up as replacements now, but in terms of a more stable position in that rotation, I think it's coming at some point this year. So keep an eye out in the news for those twin starters. But the Maeda situation that is reported as headed to the IL, Mally, I just feel like it's only a matter of time. By the time you hear this podcast Friday afternoon, it might be clear that that's the plan for him as well. So good depth right now in Minnesota. Be sure to take advantage of that if you can over the course of the weekend. We saw Aaron Judge leave early on Thursday. He's got a hip injury, which sounds like a day-to-day sort

of thing. Might miss a couple of games. I think I'm just putting this on the rundown because if we find out that Aaron Judge has to go on the il for a brief period between now and sunday i think you could look at the yankees as a team that you might actually stream against i believe they're they're right on that bubble without judge where you could start to talk yourself into using your fringy starting options against them i mean judge is fantastic and the rest of this lineup is solid, but it's not so good that you would fear throwing guys out there. I think you almost feel the park more than the lineup in a world where Aaron Judge is not available. Yeah, that's exactly what I was just going to say. I'm going to see that at NYY and think twice as long as it's a decent lineup.

But like you say, it's a solid lineup, but not a lineup to fear. But with the Yankees on the road, I might not go so far as to say that I'm actively streaming pitchers against them, but I'm definitely not holding somebody back because that's what's on the schedule. Right. If your typical response is an automatic not using them, you have to rethink that in a world where Judge is on the IL. Hasn't happened yet. Doesn't necessarily have to happen, but I'm just putting it out there because it seems like the injury that you don't want to have drag on. You have this late April problem. You think it's a day-to-day thing. You push through it too much. It becomes a much longer term issue if you don't take care of it. I wouldn't be surprised if they sort of changed course

with him at some point in the next 48 hours if they're not happy with how he's responding to treatment. Robbie Ray had season-ending surgery this week. It really opens the door for Chris Flexin, Al. I don't have a lot of interest in Flexin, but I do think you can find him to be an occasionally useful streamer,

especially at home. I just think there's gonna be some matchups he's gonna get in Seattle where you can throw him out there and maybe get get five or six quality innings run numbers so far been awful an era close to nine a whip close to two i don't really know what's wrong with him right now so if he pitches poorly enough then we have to rethink this completely and in fact this next start is coming up on the road against toronto it's a spot where i would never use chris flex in any way but for now he's the spot where I would never use Chris Flex in any way.

But for now, he's the guy that sort of wins. If you're in a really deep league where just finding anyone who starts is a priority, Chris Flex has a window now to take over that last spot in the Mariners rotation as a result of that Robbie Ray injury. And that at SEA is the inverse of the at NYY. You see any pitcher going to that environment, and you could have pitchers that are sort of mediocre do quite well. So, yeah, I think if we can see Flexin write himself

and put up indicators that are more in line with what he did the last two seasons, I'd be perfectly comfortable starting him at home against most teams, except, again, those ones that we just absolutely fear. But yeah, right now, and again, with the schedule as you described it, maybe in those deepest of leagues that you were alluding to, you can stash him because he'll probably be making starts for a while, but no reason to plan on starting him at least this coming week. Let's move on to a few bats of interest. You wrote a lot about the Pirates last week, and I think Ido and I, when we were looking at the X stats versus real stats

maybe 10 days ago, we saw Jack Swinsky on that difference leaderboard, someone who was underperforming their stats. The Pirates went to Coors Field, played the Rockies, and everything's changed for Jack Swinsky since that series. He has been on fire. His entire Pittsburgh offense has really been much better than expected. I think in most 15-team leagues, Jack Swinsky is now long gone. Is he a shallow league pickup? Is he someone that in a 10-team league might actually merit a spot because he's giving you power and speed and he's doing it with some pretty interesting stat cast numbers underneath? Yeah. And my feeling with Sawinski is that if you like him for 12-teamers, then you might as well

like him for 10-teamers because there's such a broad and good free agent pool in 10-team leagues that if somebody doesn't work out for a week or two, there's really no risk in just claiming and then ditching. But when I did write about the Pirates in the column last week, I did say that because Sawinski probably wasn't going to be starting against lefties, that he wasn't really a 12-team option. Well, on Thursday, he did start against a left-handed starter. So this is something to watch. I should see what the Pirates' schedule is for this weekend. Okay, they've got the Nationals, Corbin. So if he starts on Saturday against the Nationals with Corbin on the mound,

that increases my interest in 12-teamers right there. I think we might be at a point, too, where because he's playing center field for the Pirates, they're going to give him some starts against lefties. Now, during the upcoming week, they've got Shane McClanahan coming to town, or they go to Tampa Bay. They've got a matchup against Shane McClanahan coming up.

You might sit Jack Swinski against Shane McClanahan if you're the Pirates, because Shane McClanahan is a particularly filthy left-handed pitcher. You say it's Kikuchi the following weekend. That's a little more borderline. Kikuchi's pitching well right now, so I could see it kind of go either way. But I think the key is that if Swinski is their best defensive option in center field, that can keep him in the lineup. He might be buried in the bottom third in those matchups,

but that's better than not playing at all because eventually those starters leave the game and you get a plate appearance or two, perhaps against a righty, and you can sort of make up some ground then. So I just think with Swinski, he's somebody I probably overlooked a little bit back during draft season. You look at the numbers so far by stack has. He's 89th percentile in sprint speed. So just from an athleticism standpoint, it makes some sense that he could play some center field for them. Hitting the ball pretty hard at 85% hard hit rate. 62nd percentile in max exit velocity.

He's 97th percentile in barrels so far. And 96th percentile in chase rate. So really just doing all the things you would need to do to have a start like this. We've had five homers so far. We've had four steals so far. It's a 276, 397, 603 line. I'm there with you. I think if you're looking at shallow league options in the outfield who previously didn't get a mention for leagues like this, it's like Jack Swinski, Brent Rooker. It's guys like that. And I think for now you can play those guys because they've got prominent roles where

they're doing a lot of damage. Yeah. And it's not like the power is completely out of nowhere for Swinski. He hit with some good power last year, put up some good stack cast numbers. It's just even more so this year. And he's also completely leaning into the power game by hitting tons of flies, pulling the ball. So the monster numbers are no accident. And in fact, I was just looking at the X slug,

and the X slug is still, I think it was like 60 points above his actual slugging. So he's not even fulfilling all the power that he could, at least as he's hitting the ball so far. I think with that ability to not chase pitches outside the zone, I have a little more confidence in that 27% K rate maybe coming down a little bit more as opposed to getting back to the 30% K rate that we saw from him as a rookie a season ago in Pittsburgh. So definitely a good shallow league pickup where still available. Some deeper league outfielders, though, there's a handful of them. I thinkason hayward is the guy that currently pops for me when i look at the x stats laggard board and by that i just mean someone who's got good x stats but bad actual results hayward's actually been hitting third in the lineup this week for the dodgers while max muncie has been on the paternity list i know they'll move

him back down to like fifth or sixth once muncie's back so that's going to be before the end of the weekend, I assume. But Hayward is pretty much the biggest winner when you think about how the pieces fit in this lineup with Mookie Betts playing in the infield a lot more. In the last five games, Mookie Betts has only played one game in right field. The other four games have been at second base and shortstop. So Hayward is at least a big side platoon bat for the Dodgers now, playing right field on a regular basis. And when you look at how he's hitting the ball, he's making much better contact than we have seen in a very long time. So if you can deal with a guy who's going to play probably two-thirds or three-quarters of the time just based on those matchups,

looking at the upcoming schedule, it looks like each of their next three series, they're scheduled to face at least one left-handed starter. If that's enough for him to play in your league, he might actually be an upgrade over one of your last outfielders right now. Yeah, no, he really could. And he's the sort of player that I would sort of hesitate to say, get them in 12-team leagues. But if you're in the sort of 12-team leagues where there's a lot of bench spots, when the Dodgers have those righty-heavy schedules, Hayward could definitely put somebody out of your starting lineup and be an upgrade.

So at least time to think about that and look at the Dodgers schedule each week coming up ahead. And definitely if he's out there in leagues that are deeper than that, he's a must-add. Sticking in the outfield, are you interested in Brenton Doyle getting an opportunity in Colorado right now? There's power, there's speed, and there are a lot of questions about how well he's going to handle the strike zone. The plate skills are the question. It's not the tools.

It's whether or not big league pitchers are going to find a way to get him to strike out 35% of the time. Yeah, that's the issue because otherwise there's a power-speed combination there that's pretty interesting. And the thing is that he has been filling in for Jonathan Daza, who's been hurt, so I don't know if he'll eventually go on the IL or not. But I think just looking at the construction of the Rockies roster, I think that there's, I don't know how the Rockies think about this, but to me, there's a clear spot for Doyle here. I mean, they could send down, for example, Harold Castro. He's got options. Alan Trejo's got options. They would still have some infield depth there. And I think Doyle would probably be an

upgrade over Daza. I mean, even, you know, Yerkson Profar, I mean, he's not hitting. You figure at the very least they could have some kind of rotation going there and get that power bat in the lineup with Doyle. I think he'd really improve their lineup a lot. I just don't know if the Rockies, I always, probably as much as any organization question, you know, how the Rockies might see these things, but it would make sense to me. I think we had to keep a close eye on what happens with Daza in these next

couple of days, because if he goes on the aisle with that hand injury, then that opens up some playing time for Doyle for the upcoming week. Randall Gritchick eventually coming back is a problem as well. I think with Gritchick, he's supposed to play in three more rehab games over the weekend, and then he might be back next week. So if you're just looking for what could go wrong as far as Doyle getting bumped off the roster, it's really the return of Randall Gritchick coming out of the weekend that could cost him if they don't want to make him a priority. I think this actually is pretty similar to the profile of Sam Hilliard.

And I just remember how much frustration I had when they wouldn't play Sam Hilliard more. And I know he's still striking out a ton, getting this opportunity in Atlanta, but it makes me feel a little better about all the chances I was taking on Hilliard only to be wrong for the better part of three years. Yeah, but it's exactly that kind of history that makes me kind of reticent

to really take a chance on bringing in Doyle. But I don't think it's going to take that much. I think it's more an issue of can you afford the roster spot than do you want to put 1% or 2% down on him in, say, a 15-team league. Sure. No, I think that's completely fair. Nelson Velasquez is getting an opportunity for the Cubs right now, Al. He's been on the radar for me as someone that if they gave him an opportunity, I wanted to pick him up. He wasn't necessarily the kind of prospect or anything where I'd want

to stash him when he was stuck in the minor leagues. I'm wondering if you're seeing anything different from him this time around. He started three consecutive games in center field for the Cubs this week as we approach the weekend. Well, I still worry about the strikeouts. I mean, much like we were just saying with Doyle. So still worry about the strikeouts. I mean, much like we were just saying with Doyle. So I worry about the strikeouts. I, I do worry about the organizational depth. I do wonder when Christopher Morrell will be coming back up because he's

been hitting very well. So I, and I just, and again, maybe this is me living too much in 2022 and not seeing Velasquez getting a real chance. Then when it seemed like the, the, the roster situation was, was certainly no, you know,

no more crowded than it is right now and probably less so. But if you see him just continue to get chances to, to start pretty regularly, I love the power. So he definitely fills a need if, if that's an area that you want to shore up on your roster. Yeah, I like that they're playing him in center field. I think that's a key. Anytime you see a team giving a younger outfielder some run in center field, it's a more important position defensively. If a player can handle that capably, that can actually drive playing time

quite a bit because it makes them less susceptible to being platooned in many cases because a lot of teams don't have a viable second side they trust with the glove in that spot. So keeping a very close eye on Nelson Velasquez over the weekend. I'd love to see what Michael Bush could do with opportunities in the big leagues. He was the corresponding move for the Dodgers when they placed Max Muncy on the paternity list earlier in the week. I don't know if he's going to stay beyond Muncy's absence, if there's going to be some other corresponding move to send someone else down. But Michael Bush looks really good in the minors, really doesn't have a lot left to prove at AAA. He's been there for over 130 games now going back to last season. He's popped more than 20 home runs, good OBP there. He's been even better this year than he was a season ago as well.

But I think we're going to have some news on Michael Bush before fab runs, and that's going to probably guide us to stay away for now. Yeah, I agree. And just the depth, this is just the perennial commentary on the Dodgers whenever we talk about a prospect is that the depth makes it a tough call for the longer term. So regardless of how long Bush is up for now, I just worry that, like you say, even though he's got nothing left to prove, how much of a role is he going to play on this major league roster at this point? I wish they had a way to keep him up right now. We'll see if that

changes, but for now, just mentioning him because he needs something to break his way if he's going to hang around. I like they played him at third base though. And I guess the one thing I was wondering about was the slow start to the season for Miguel Vargas, which comes on the heels of a thumb injury back during spring training. Maybe that's the move. Maybe Miguel Vargas gets a brief stint on the IL or a brief demotion back to Triple A. I think the injury is actually the more likely thing, even though Vargas has been playing a lot. That would be the kind of thing that could at least open up a temporary window for Bush to show what he can do against big league pitching beyond this Muncie paternity list stint. So a handful of interesting hitters out there in a variety of different leagues this week. Let's get to our pitching segments for this week.

You wrote about Eduardo Rodriguez in the intro of the ads and drops column. I think it's a question of whether or not you trust him in shadow leagues again. There was a time not that long ago when Eduardo Rodriguez was a favorite sleeper type in the fantasy community. Someone that people thought could be a number three starter on fantasy rotations. And it's never really worked consistently for more than a half season. Last year was a mess for a variety of reasons for him.

Is Eduardo Rodriguez back? Is he at least at the point now where you can start to say, hey, Detroit's a cavernous ballpark. The stuff is back to where it used to be. This is a guy we used to like. We should like him again. Where do you draw the line, though, for types of leagues in which you can use him? Well, I think some of that maybe depends on, and this is something maybe DVR that you can address because I don't feel good about saying, well, something depends on one start that we get to watch this weekend. But since you've read the waiver piece, I'm very much on the fence. I don't know how to read these tea leaves exactly for Rodriguez. So he gets a start. We're talking here on Friday. So on Friday night, he will get a start against the Orioles.

And that's a decent test for him. And if it's a good start, it's a third straight good start. What I just don't understand is where all the swing and miss is coming from all of a sudden, because that's something that wasn't there last year. It wasn't there in the first couple of starts this year. And I didn't see what had changed. There wasn't an uptick in velocity. There wasn't an uptick in velocity there wasn't an uptick in spin rate uh on any of his pitches so i just i i literally do not know how to make sense of it and i kind of revert to thinking something's a fluke especially when we're just looking at two starts where we're seeing this this upward trend in in whiff rate so maybe maybe the third one's the charm uh with the

with the orioles this weekend. But I'd say even with a good start there, I'm sort of hesitant to go for him in 12-team leagues. I think it's very much need-dependent, and I wouldn't bid a lot. I would hope that maybe you could sneak him through and hope that he continues to pitch well. You're looking at the baseball savant numbers. It maybe is the cutter, the slightly increased use of the cutter.

It's been a really effective pitch for him so far. I'm not sure why exactly, but the cutter's never been a good swing and miss pitch for him. And all of a sudden it is. Yeah. Yeah. This is a good mystery. This,

this might be one that we need a little help from Eno on because there could be something else going on with it like yes it's still a cutter but maybe some of the traits of it have changed maybe he's locating something else better or because what i'm seeing looking at the actual model numbers is a low stuff number but a good location number which means he's more of a command specialist now and a command specialist in detroit can work, right? I mean, we were interested in Matthew Boyd coming off the spring that he had, and I think interest in him has slipped a little bit now that the season has started. We've seen how things have played out, but I don't think it's unreasonable

to want to pick up Eduardo Rodriguez in a 12-team league. I think at a 10, it would take a two-start week. It would take a few more weeks of things going really well for me to have the confidence in him to be at that level. Because you're talking about top 50, top 60 starters in a 10-team league being the guys you want to have on your roster. And I'm not sure he's quite in that range for me just yet. But I liked him enough before last year to start to get pulled back in. That's why I find him to be so interesting.

I think there's another way you can look at this. I mean, aside from watching and seeing what happens on Friday night, it's always nice to get that extra bit of information prior to the weekend. I think you can sort of test yourself by looking at the upcoming schedule. The next start after Friday would be home against the Mets. And the Mets are one of those teams that gets a very good offense that can be very dangerous. Their home park is also pitcher friendly. In this case, Rodriguez gets them at home. I would be inclined at least a 15 team league to probably play him

in this spot, or at least looking at the other options and kind of leaning towards doing it. Go ahead one more week at Cleveland would be the next start after that. I'm probably in on that. I mean, the takeaway for me on the guardians is that they have no power. They're second to last in the league and home runs. They don't strike out a lot, but they're not doing damage.

That's not a lineup to fear as they're currently constructed. So it's one maybe in one almost certain. Yes. On the schedule for these next two turns. And sometimes that's the extra little bump I need to put somebody either higher on the priority list when we're picking players up or to even be interested at all. Well, and another way to look at it, too, is if you're doing pretty well in terms of pitching depth that you can stash Rodriguez if you have the room and then you've got a couple of matchups that really and again now we're talking about a potentially fourth and fifth good start in a row but especially that Guardians one like you said they don't strike out a lot they don't swing and miss very much so if Rodriguez can pull off a double digit whiff rate against them that really says something I

mean this run he's been on going back to April 12th three starts at Baltimore home against Cleveland road against Toronto he's got at least six innings in each of, three starts at Baltimore, home against Cleveland, road against Toronto. He's got at least six innings in each of those three starts. He's gone six, eight, and seven with 19 Ks against one walk, no home runs allowed. Yeah. It's hard to fluke your way all the way to that. You have to have a decent baseline to have a three-start stretch like that. You do.

You do. I just don't understand where it's come from. And maybe that's analysis or paralysis by analysis and just look at the results and say, just, you know, you can't wait any longer. What are you waiting for? But I just think after last season and the fact that he came out of the gate this year,

looking like it was going to be a repeat of 2022, it's hard for me to get around on this. Okay. Well, let's compare him to some other names that you've put on the rundown. Erod versus Kyle Gibson. What do you see with Kyle Gibson that makes you even slightly interested in him? Well, I do love CSW. It just rarely fails us. And it's up this year for him 29.1%. Now it's not translated into strikeouts yet, which tells me that maybe he's not generating

a lot of foul balls. Cause that's usually what happens when you see a pitcher getting a lot of whiffs and or freezes, but the strikeouts aren't coming. But this is an interesting one, too. Sort of like with Erod with a couple of pitches performing so much better than they usually do. On Gibson's two primary pitches, the sinker and the slider, he's getting a ton of called strikes, which, again, is not something that he's done in the past. So, you know, if I'm going to make the argument with Rodriguez of, you know, you got to show me more, I should probably be saying the same thing about Gibson. But it does put him on my radar. And I think they're pretty similarly rostered too. So there's not necessarily a lot of time. I think what Gibson maybe has in his favor in terms of playing the wait and see game is that his last start wasn't that great. and C game is that his last start wasn't that great. So maybe you can see how Gibson does this next week. And if it falls in the same pattern of him missing a lot of bats,

then you make a play for him in one week. I think the thing that's making me a lot more confident in Rodriguez and Gibson is the strength of the schedule that they've seen so far. Four of those five starts this season for Erod have been on the road. The two that weren't part of this three start stretch that was so good at Houston and at Tampa Bay. Even the first start of the year against Tampa Bay, three earned over five

and a third, five Ks against that lineup right now, that's actually a positive outcome against the Rays, given that they've been the best offense in the league so far this season. But when you compare that to what Kyle Gibson has done, I think Kyle Gibson's done a good job of really picking on a very weak schedule so far. The first start of the year was at Boston, easily the toughest matchup he's had.

At Texas, home against Oakland, at the White Sox, they've been just destroyed by injuries. And then two against the Tigers. So I think with Gibson, I think what we're seeing is more of a matchup-dependent that we can trust more, especially because he's not in a hitter friendly environment anymore. I think that's what's changed for me with him. But I think with Rodriguez, there's still a possibility of something more being there. So I see a bit of a gap between those two guys, even though I'm finding myself often throwing Gibson in as a contingency bid when he's got these favorable matchups. And I think I've missed out on him just about everywhere so far. How about Brady Singer? Just looking at him probably is more of a toss up with Erod in shallow leagues, because I think Singer, with what he was able to do last

year, is still rostered in a lot of 15 and most 12-team leagues, even with this bumpy start. Maybe he's someone that people are thinking about cutting this weekend with an ERA sitting above 6. But it's a 24-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 5 homers so far in 5 starts. That seems like a blip that was mostly from one start against Atlanta on the road. I kind of wonder if that's just the thing. How much of what has

happened to Brady Singer in April is the result of one particularly bad outing in a difficult spot? Yeah, that's kind of what I'm trying to talk myself into. And he's got the A's this week. So even though they have been surging up the WRC plus leaderboard in the last week or so, I still think they're a pretty good offense to pick on. But yeah, he's made five starts and in three of those is allowed just one barrel. But then the other two, the brave start, which was the really bad one.

And then another one gets a giants between those two starts. He gave up eight barrels. So it's really skewing a lot of his indicators and plus his surface numbers. But he is allowing very consistently in each start a lot of contact in the zone and that's another indicator that to me is you know if you're at the extremes of that that can be very scary or very encouraging and he's on the scary

end of that so i did cut him last week in a 12 team league but he's on my radar radar to to scoop him back up at least for this start against oakland all right so he's on my radar to scoop him back up, at least for this start against Oakland. All right, so he's falling a little bit more to like a matchup dependent sort of range, but his next start after the one he's got this week against Oakland is home against the White Sox. That would be another go most likely for Brady Singer. So yeah, that's a good way to look at him. If the schedule eases up like that,

he could make up some ground and start to build more onto that track record we saw him lay down last season. I never saw it coming. He was one of those guys that when I looked up in August and saw what kind of season he was having, I had him nowhere. So it was a huge surprise to me to see what he had accomplished. Streamers and two-star pitchers this week, Al. I tried to do something just a little bit different. What I did is I took all of the truly bad offenses from the absolute worst, the Royals, up to about the Marlins and A's. The Marlins are actually looking a little better than expected offensively.

They still strike out a lot. I either want a flat out bad offensive team or I want a team that whiffs a lot if I'm going to take a chance on one that's closer to a league average sort of lineup and the Marlins at 90 for a WRC plus are still a healthy 10% below league average. I don't think they're going to jump above that league average threshold anytime soon with the way they're built. So for me, they made the cut. Now of the teams that are sort of like bottom 10 offenses by WRC plus that I'm not necessarily willing to throw anyone and everyone against. The Guardians, because they don't strike out. The Padres, because we know they're likely to wake up.

A lot of the numbers they've cooked in so far didn't have Tatis in the lineup. I think Juan Soto is going to get going. The Mariners are part of that group, too. I think of those three, I could see the Guardians being the one that I eventually pick on a bit more because I don't think there's a lot of power coming, but I'd like to find teams that whiff a lot if I'm going to go ahead and throw a mid-range starter against them. The Royals have the Orioles and the A's on the schedule,

so this gives us a lot of potential streaming opportunities. Tyler Wells and some shallow leagues would be out there as a possible streamer. We talk about him almost every week. I think he's an absolute go. Kyle Gibson, we talked about a little earlier, definitely a go against the Royals. The A's starters are tough. Are you throwing any of the A's starters at Kansas City with Drew Ruchinsky going back into that rotation, Kyle Muller, and Kelton Waldachuk also getting Kansas City on the schedule by next weekend? I don't think so. Maybe Muller, but probably not. We're going to talk about a lot of pitchers with good matchups here that are going to be way ahead in the queue,

ahead of anybody in Oakland. Probably an O for me. I think I'm in on Mull Mueller. If you had to talk me into another one, it'd be Walda Chuck, but I'm not choosing to do that on my own. That's me being dared to do it. Rocky's second worst offense in the league right now by WRC Plus tied for the Tigers with that honor, actually. 24.8% K rate. Because they've got a series at home against Milwaukee, you're not really looking at Eric Lauer to stream there. You're not looking at Adrian Hauser. If he's going to make that start,

you're not going to throw him there. They do go on the road though, to face the Mets. So if Tyler McGill is available in your league, I think he's an easy stream in a shallow format where he's not already rostered. You know, Max Scherzer or Kodai Singha,

of course are already long gone. The Tigers at a 72 WRC plus also the 25.7% K rate. So whipping plenty. They have David Peterson coming up and David Peterson has been pretty brutal so far. So this is a good test. How far down the list of starters are you willing to go to throw someone at this Tigers lineup right now? I feel okay with Peterson. I mean, I'm not talking about 12 team leagues, but 15 team leagues.

I'm okay with Peterson. I mean, I'm not talking about 12 team leagues, but 15 team leagues. I'm okay with Peterson. I just, prior to this year, he showed that he's the sort of pitcher that should be safe against a lineup like the Tigers. And maybe there is something wrong, but I think I'd be willing to take that chance given how pretty punchless that lineup is. He's had a couple of decent starts with the turns against the Marlins back on March 31st and the Padres on April 11th. But five, six, and seven earned runs in his other three starts. All of those came on the road against the Brewers, Dodgers, and Giants. So I think I actually would throw David Peterson there in deeper leagues, as you suggested. Tigers also match up with the Cardinals in St. Louis.

I don't think Jordan Montgomery is available even in shallow leagues. If he is, he should actually just be rostered because he's good. Adam Wainwright could be back for a turn there. He'd kind of fit in that deep league bucket with Peterson, not necessarily someone I would want to throw in a shallow league. And then Steven Matz, who I'd never seem to like. Can you talk me into Steven Matz in this instance at least? Pretty good for strikeouts,

and I think I'd trust him with a weak matchup like this. Yeah. Hopefully six or seven Ks coming from Steven Matz with a matchup against the Tigers on tap. Reds offense struggling in a big way there at an 80 WRC plus through 25 games, also striking out more than 25% of the time. Blake Snell rostered struggling, but he's a go as far as using him. He's not on the bench for the start. Michael Waka has been up and down. I think you could probably justify throwing Waka out there in some deeper

leagues. Seth Lugo, I think has been more in than out for people in lineups. He'd be a go for me. And some struggling White Sox starters in Lance Lynn and Michael Kopech, Mike Clevenger also in that mix as well. So a handful of guys that either have pitched poorly or maybe just guys you really haven't been able to trust based on skills all get in the reds.

Yeah, Kopech's a definite no for me because that series is in Cincinnati and he's had a real home run problem and a real hard contact problem. So a no for me there. Lennon, Clevenger, probably be fine with them. Man, Michael Kopech, I thought I saw some whispers

on Twitter that he might be tipping some pitches, which would explain why walks and home runs have been such a problem for him. He's never had great command, so the walk rate, you know, you expect to be a little high, but it's grossly high when you pair that with not keeping the ball in the yard, it would sort of back up

the idea that hitters have been able to figure out what's coming from him. So we'll see if he's able to correct that here in the near future. The White Sox, speaking of the White Sox, also a struggling offense in 84 WRC plus through 26 games. The Tyler Malley replacement will see this lineup. So keep an eye on who that is. We talked about Varland. We talked about Bailey Ober. Yes, in on both of them against the White Sox, no question. Obviously, Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray are in on both of them against the White Sox, no question. Obviously, Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray are in. And then two of the three good starters for the Reds, Hunter Green and Nick Lodolo, will get the White Sox.

Luke Weaver is an absolute no-fly for me. I can't go anywhere near Luke Weaver right now. I can't either. He's a no everywhere. The Nats are a team to pick on right now. Surprisingly, an 18.5% K rate, a little bit like the Guardians as far as being a weaker offense, but one that's not whiffing a lot. The Cubs are their first. Drew Smiley, Jamison Tyon, health permitting, Hayden Wisniewski,

Marcus Stroman, all guys I would start. I think even Smiley and more shallow leagues would be a pick up and stream for me in this spot. If Tommy Henry stays in the rotation this long for Arizona, he's lined up for a turn against them. I'd be on the road for the Nats, home for Henry. I don't think I want to pitch Tommy Henry. He just looks like a back-end innings eater, not really somebody that I trust. I do think this is a spot where Ryan Nelson could get well, though.

It's been a little bit of an up-and-down start for him this year, Al. I think Nelson against the Nats could be a really great streaming opportunity in leagues where he's been dropped. Yeah, I agree. Nelson is, even 15-team leagues, somebody that you have to really be careful with because he can give up the home run, but

the Nats would be a great opportunity to stream him. I mentioned the Marlins a bit earlier. A 90 WRC plus on the season. Not really anyone available to stream against them unless you're in that Drew Smiley situation I described earlier because that 90 WRC plus on the season. Not really anyone available to stream against them unless you're in that Drew Smiley situation I described earlier because that's the second start of the week for Smiley. So a really good two-step for him

if you see Smiley out there in your leagues this weekend. Justin Steele, Jamison Tyon also getting turns against the Marlins. And three good starters for Atlanta. Kyle Wright, Max Fried, Spencer Strider, all in, of course, against Miami. The A's, surprisingly, have a 95 WRC plus on the season through 26 games. I don't expect that to continue. They are striking out 24% of the time,

so they're striking out enough where you could still, if they maintain that WRC plus, you're still picking on them because of that K rate. They will see Seattle's three good, healthy starters, so all guys that are rostered that are in lineups anyway and Gilbert Kirby and Castillo but then they get the Royals with Singer Yarbrough and Grinkey we talked about Singer a bit earlier as a clear streamer are you going down that row with either one of Yarbrough or Grinkey where available you know I've historically and I alluded to this earlier

I've liked Yarbrough but he's just not striking anybody out so far. So I just don't feel great about that. Plus, I don't necessarily trust him to go more than like four innings. Greinke maybe in a 15-teamer. I think he's pitching well enough. I'm not thinking of the A's as a close to average offense. So against the type of offense I expect them to be going forward, I think Greinke would be okay. In weekly leagues, the two-star week for Zach Greinke as well.

So I think that'd be a thumbs up as well. As far as the two-start pitchers go, it's a pretty bad week for finding ones that you can actually pick up on the wire in a lot of places. Steven Matz in shallow leagues, I'd probably do it, even though the first start is against the Angels, and I don't really like throwing mediocre lefties against the Angels. Getting that second start against the Tigers would be enough for me to green light that.

Ryan Feltner, though, in Colorado, has to make one of his turns at home against the Brewers before he goes on the road against the Mets. Is it possible that Ryan Feltner is being a little bit overlooked for deeper leagues because he's a member of the Rockies rotation? I think he is, and I certainly have, because he's been sort of an up-and-down guy for them. So you think, okay, if this is not Kyle Freeland, Herman Marquez, and those are not pitchers, Marquez when he was healthy,

not pitchers that I was particularly interested in this season. But Feltner, taking a closer look, I think there might be something there. Now, the schedule's not great this week. It would not be my choice of places to give him a try. But almost 10 strikeouts per nine. The walk rate's high, but the components of the walk rate, the chase rate, almost 34% is really good. He's throwing a ton of first pitch strikes, 69%.

And he's throwing pitches in the zone, 45% right there. Those are all really good he's throwing a ton of first pitch strikes 69 and he's throwing pitches in the zone 45 right there those are all really good rates so i don't know if he's just not sequencing or you know pitching uh or finishing off batters but he shouldn't be somebody with a high k rate and he's got a uh he's missing bats like i say he's got the strikeout rate he's got the 28.5 csw he's um not allowing a lot of um a lot of pulled uh fly balls he's not allowing a lot of hard contact on fly balls i mean all the indicators actually look really solid for feltner so i don't i would still really hesitate to start him this week but maybe pick him up and see see how he does probably more of those are pretty tough matchups. Yeah, probably more of a 20-team league sort of guy for stash

purposes. Even a 15-team league, it's more of keeping him on the radar for future weeks where it's one start on the road against one of those teams we just mentioned, one of those bottom eight, bottom ten sort of lineups that boost up your whiffs a little bit. I do this all the time. I overlook Colorado pitchers because I just don't want to deal with them. I realize that

I can't use them at home and then there's even a few tough road matchups I try to avoid for overlook Colorado pitchers because I just don't want to deal with them. I realize that I can't use them at home, and then there's even a few tough road matchups I try to avoid for Rockies pitchers because I don't really like their supporting cast at all when they're matched up against the Dodgers on the road, or even the Padres on the road, and maybe even now, Arizona on the road. All those

teams in division really presenting some interesting problems. A quick bullpen check-in before we sign off. The Dodgers seem to be leaning a little more towards Broussard-Graderol, so wherever he's available, I think he might be worth a pickup this weekend. But it's still kind of an ongoing battle between Graderol and Evan Phillips, who I believe is also both of those guys among the Dodgers that have been on the paternity list in the recent past here.

Shelby Miller actually swooped in for a save while they were both unavailable earlier this week. Yeah, it's a frustrating situation because Gratterall or Phillips would be really great if they could be trusted to get a larger share, but I could see this maybe going on all season long. So for me, the conundrum is I've got Phillips in a couple of leagues and I just don't feel good about dropping him yet. And yet, you know,

he's picking up a space that maybe could be held by somebody who's got a, you know, a better share, a larger share of OSEO opportunities. A lot of that seems similar to me to what we had with Paul Seawald last year. There were stretches where Seawald

wasn't getting the saves and I had a hard time holding onto him. And then there was a stretch where he was getting all the saves and it was amazing. So if the skills are as good as they are with Evan Phillips and it's a team that should right the ship and win a bit more so he can vulture some late inning wins as well. I'm more on the side of holding than cutting. If possible, I realize you can get squeezed because of other things happening on your team, and eventually you don't have that luxury anymore. But this could just be a committee where they mix and match based on matchups, and both of these guys end up getting 10, 12, maybe 15 more saves

between now and the end of the season. Another wobble for Felix Bautista. I'm curious if you're speculating on any of the other Baltimore relievers, specifically Yenny or Cano, in case things shift for the Orioles. Yeah, I mean, I've seen in some of my leagues that Cano already getting picked up. He's been fantastic, just about flawless this year. In any other, just about any other situation, I'd be a lot more interested. But if you look at the overall numbers for Bautista, he's been very good.

So, you know, we see this a lot with relievers in April where the bad moments, I think, get magnified. So, yeah, this is just not one of these situations. I mean, Baltimore is just not one of these situations where I was expecting to speculate on a potential successor. And I honestly don't think that Bautista's job is in any sort of danger. But deeper leagues, what's the harm? Pick up a skilled guy. And if something does happen where Bautista loses opportunities, then you're probably going to have a very good closer in Cano. Yeah. I think it probably is for me more beyond a 15-team league. So in a monolig setting or a deep keeper or dynasty league, that's where I think the buck on Cano could actually pay off at some point.

I think the most widely available new closer, air quotes, is Brad Boxberger, who seems to be taking control of the Cubs bullpen, at least for now. Yeah, I think he probably is the best target out there that you'd be able to get outside of 10 or 12 team leagues. And we talked about him, I think, last week's show, and I expressed some concern that maybe Albert Alzali would be a more fitting closer candidate down the line.

But it's the saves game, and you've got to play the short term, and I don't see Boxberger getting challenged anytime soon. Yeah, I think my reservations with Alzali last week were that he was working a lot in longer opportunities, and he's been actually working in shorter stints in the time since I said that. I think every one of his last five appearances has been three outs or less.

So maybe things are still changing and then changing some more for this Cubs bullpen. But if you're looking for saves, Brad Boxberger might be the best available option in a lot of leagues out there. Quick heads up, Rysell Iglesias threw a scoreless inning in his first rehab appearance on Thursday, so he is getting closer to a return to that Atlanta bullpen,

which would probably put A.J. Minter back into a setup role, if not immediately soon after Iglesias proves that back-to-backs are no problem once that happens. Minter becomes one of those guys a bit like Evan Phillips where you like the skills, you like the player, but you're not necessarily convinced he's getting saves anytime soon and you may have to drop him, but that might be less

of a committee that we're seeing for the Dodgers, so be prepared to cross that bridge in the near future as Iglesias gets closer to returning from the injured list. That is going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. On the way out the door, a reminder that you can get a subscription to The Athletic for a dollar a month for the first year by going to theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. Once you have that, you can read Al's

weekly waiver wire column, which is already up on the site. As you're hearing this podcast, you can also check out Eno's updated pitching rankings, which feature projections for the rest of the season from Jordan Rosenblum. So lots of great stuff available to you this weekend. Of course, keep an eye on the news over the weekend. You can find us on Twitter. Al is at almelkierbb. I am at Derek Van Ryper. We are back with you on Monday. Thank you.