Rates & Barrels - The Biggest Prospect Risers of 2024

Episode Date: September 13, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss Corey Seager's season-ending surgery and long-term outlook, Kumar Rocker's debut, and an impressive rotation coming together for the Rangers in 2025. Plus, they crowdsource some of the biggest risers among prospects from several members of The Athletic's MLB staff, and discuss a few intriguing names to consider on the waiver wire this weekend. Rundown 5:58 Corey Seager to Have Season-Ending Hernia Surgery 11:26 Kumar Rocker Debuts, Jacob deGrom Nears Return 19:55 Twins Minor League Catcher Derek Bender Released for Giving Away Pitches 26:27 Project Prospect: (Some) of the Biggest Risers of 2024 33:40 Position Players Reaching Double-A At Age-18 or Younger 42:59 Carlson Reed: Another Pirates Pitching Prospect to Monitor 55:27 Two More Rising Bats 1:01:34 Weekend Waiver Wire Preview Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Thursdays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

I'm going back to university for zero dollar delivery fee. Up to five percent off orders and five percent Uber cash back on rides. Not whatever you think university is for. Get Uber One for students. With deals this good, everyone wants to be a student. Join for just $4.99 a month. Savings May 3. Eligibility and member terms apply. What great barrels it is Friday September 13th Derek and Riper you know Sarah's here with you on this episode we have a weekend waiver preview as we do each and every Friday

but we've also got project prospect and. And to do Project Prospect this week, I reached out to some of our friends at the athletic. I asked for risers in as many organizations as possible. Many of our writers delivered. Got some names from Keith Law in there as well. So we'll talk a lot about Prospects in the middle part of today's show. And we've got some news like we do each and every day

before we get to that. How's it going for you on this Friday? You know, what do you got lined up for the weekend? Baseball and then some baseball and maybe a little baseball. It is fall ball season in this family. So nice going from game tonight to literally games all weekend. It'll be fun. Oh, also watching games on your phone.

Yeah. Covering games. All of it. That season. Uh, one, I call it 1000% baseball season. The, uh, other thing, uh, boxing match Saturday. We're going to have a couple of friends over Canelo. Okay.

It box is one of those things where I feel bad for liking it. You do consume more boxing than I ever realized. I know there's something about it. Really engaging. It makes me put down my phone when they're playing, you know, like it makes me be in the present and I'm and it's it engages that I've been in like one fight my whole life. It was about video games in college. I'm not that person, but when they start fighting, I'm like,

like I it more than almost any other sport. I like get in there with them and like feel like, you know, I don't know. But then then I'm like, you know, I don't know. But then, then I'm like, yeah, this is awful for them. I was even just talking to, uh, who's the, uh, head coach, uh, the manager of the, uh, Brewers, um, Murphy. What's his first name? Pat Murphy.

Pat, Pat Murphy apparently was like a three sport athlete in his words, not good at any, but, um, uh a good enough to like train at a legendary I forget the name of the place but a legendary boxing Facility and good enough to have had like 25 fights. I don't know semi-pro or something like it's some he he fought and He was telling us that Like he has no cartilage in his nose or something anymore and that like he has no cartilage in his nose or something anymore. And so he's been in some scraps and that the doctors told them that his

neck is just like all fused. It's just all like, just a block of ice back there basically. And that that's all from fighting. And he only, and he didn't do it his whole life. He just did it, you know, when he was a younger man. Um, and uh, and that. And that's why I feel bad about it. Like, I feel like they're giving up their bodies, you know? Sure. Well, I get it. I understand. I don't really watch boxing, but hey, glad you found something you really enjoy.

And Murph, I've always wondered, like, this guy just looks like a tank. Like, you just would not mess with Pat Murphy. And that explains a lot about it. I got immediately the, the sort of genius of making him the manager, just talking to him for like 10 to 15 minutes. I w like he didn't, I don't, I don't even think I introduced myself. I don't think he, I don't know if he knew who I was, but we just talked. Like there was like four or five of us

and we were just talking about, you know, different sports and he's telling stories and it was so comfortable. Like that's, I think a thing that is a unquantifiable thing that a manager needs to do. Yeah. It seemed like that from day one, as far as how he's interacted with local media here, how players feel about him.

The thing I'd like to someone who's not in or around that clubhouse is the continuity, knowing that he had been there for so long with council, it wouldn't be as jarring as bringing in someone from the outside who doesn't necessarily have those relationships already or doesn't build them as quickly. But it's funny because he's also different than Council. Like he's not as sort of like,

there's a little bit more intensity with Council, a little bit more, you know what I mean? Like he's a little bit more relaxed. Council seems more tightly wound in a, Yeah. It almost seems like in a more analytical sort of way. Murphy seems more like he could be tightly wound like in a, we've got to throw a hand sort of way.

Like the different, it's a different way of being to be like competitively tough. Sort of old school. Yes. Right. That's, that's the vibe I've always got from, from both of those guys. You see it on counsel's face. But I mentioned it to Devin Williams, the fighting, you know, and he's like, oh, yeah, he's an old brawler.

It's like that. That suggests to me also that there's been some interaction between the players and the manager on like that same level with like they know who he is, you know, and like it's chill, you know, as opposed to like, I think there can be managers that. Sort of broadcast more like an authority figure that I'm like in charge here, and you don't actually get to know that much about me. They're you know, they're different styles in there, but I Doug Murphy style. Yeah, it seems like it's working so far in year one for Pat Murphy with the Brewers.

Let's get to some news you should know here on this Friday, Corey Seeger's 2024 season is over. He's going to have season ending hernia surgery, sports hernia to be specific. That doesn't make it any more fun. I think it actually adds a little bit to the recovery timetable, but all indications should be that Corey Seeger

will be ready for the start of 2025. Now the interesting thing here is he ended up putting up another great season in a year that's been bookended by injuries like the spring he was slowed down only played 123 games, stuck at the 30 homers for the third consecutive season. The average came down a bit from last year, but all in all, like considering that he was probably playing at less than a hundred percent for a couple of different stretches of the year, I think Corey Seeger continues to establish himself as one of those early

round foundational bats, despite the fact that he just doesn't give you much of anything in the stolen base department. Yeah, it's the anti-Sivian. It's kind of funny that he's across the way from Simeon where it's like, you know, we we've wondered like, when is Simeon going to have the year where he's injured? And, you know, we're wondering when Seeger is going to have the year that he's healthy. And they've just kind of metronomes in that regard. I think that we all assume

metronomes in that regard. We can, I think that we all assume that Simeon will age better. Hmm. I don't know if I, I'm not sure I've made that assumption. I think it's hard because I expect Seeger's skills as a hitter to age exceptionally well, right? Because of his swing decisions and low strikeout rate, but the cumulative wear and tear on his body of the injuries, the surgeries he's had,

could cause that decline to be sharper when it happens. So maybe it's the magnitude of the decline, whereas Simeon, finding ways to stay out there every single day, day after day, the performance will taper off more gradually. Seeger, it might just be, he's good until 35, 36 years old. And then the major injury that hits him at that point in his career is one that he can't quite get back

from the same way. Like that's more like how I see those two players aging. Yeah, we have, he's going to be 31 next year. Yep. And we have one qualified shortstop that was over 31 And then that's Trent Turner and then we have Mookie Betts who's probably done playing shortstop Dylan Moore

Who's the utility guy Miguel Rojas who was done playing shortstop is playing shortstop again, but it's probably done playing shortstop Javi Baez Tim Anderson who might be done playing baseball Nick Ahmed that those are the only ones over 200 plate appearances. I Wonder how much it behooves the Rangers to find on their shortstop, you know How long it's gonna last for Corey Seeger at shortstop. But shortstop is one of those positions where, you know, could he have more value as a third basement or a first basement? I mean, it's not impossible.

A shortstop is not necessarily giving you that much positional value by itself as a position. There are tons of good short stops every year. They're young, they're stars. That's where you put your star. Right. You're talking about, yeah, from the fantasy perspective, it might actually help our player pool to have Cory Seeger somewhere else.

And it would also be, I think, better comparatively speaking to have a guy who doesn't offer much of anything in the stolen base category at a position where you're not expecting that. Yeah. Make him a first baseman for the next five years of his career, a couple of years from now for a stretch of five years and it's different. And then he starts looking like Freddie Freeman a little bit, right? Like, you know, Vlad Guerriero Jr., right? You know, 300 with 30 armors, you know?

Yeah. By the way, Josh Smith picking up a lot of the extra playing time. It's short now that Seeger's down again. Things have cooled off for Josh Smith quite a bit. He was great through the first half of the season. I was just looking at his second half splits, 45 games, 213, 268, 293 slash line, two homers, four steals. So the first half magic from Josh Smith, who really was a great fill in when Josh Young was down, that seems to have faded.

The league has adjusted. Things have sort of corrected back in the direction we expected. I mean, he's he's just a decent player is all he is. I mean, he's a he's a guy who makes contact, has a good plate approach, you know, doesn't hit the ball extremely hard. And, you know, it would be valuable if he got 700 played appearances at shortstop next year for the Rangers, if they made that decision.

But I don't know if his age lines up to be the guy that replaces Corey Seager at shortstop, because he's already 27 himself, you know. And I'm not sure that he profiles as a guy. You're like, okay, we're upgrading defensively going from Corey Seeger to Josh Smith, I don't think so. Yeah, I mean, I wonder if one of their top prospects, their top prospect now,

Sebastian Walcott is the replacement for Seeger. There's questions long-term about Walcott maybe growing out of shortstop, but he could probably play it for a little while before eventually moving to third base or somewhere else. And there's an age that lines up, and we'll talk more about him later, but 18 years old, that's the sort of age that lines up. Yeah, absolutely.

But a lot going on with the Rangers right now. We had the Kumar rocker debut on Thursday. I think between your projection and Trevor's, you almost nailed it. He was one inning later. We were like an out away, dude. Yeah, it was close. It was Really close. Yeah.

Really nice debut from him and underrated part of the debut was just like his parents are very attractive. Let me just put that out there. Didn't think that was going to be where you're going with that, but they had style, I don't know. I just dug them. They just, they were dressed so well. Like there's so many times when they sit to the parents and they're just wearing like a t-shirt and a hat and you know, these guys, they were dressed so well like there's so many times they sit to the parents

They're just wearing like a t-shirt and a hat and you know They were like well dressed and and looked like they were at the opera or something They were just amazing so and Kumar dealt one thing that we did tell you about was the power death ball and one aspect we didn't necessarily bring up when we talked about it was And one aspect we didn't necessarily bring up when we talked about it was with that slot that he's got, you saw probably if you watch that he had this two plane fastball kind of like a sinker ish forcing, you know, had a lot of sideways movement. That's what's going to make it tough on lefties. And what you saw from the lefties was a lot of people spitting on his pitches, you know, more walks to lefties, right? Because in this is what Casey Meyers was telling me was that if you throw a lefty a sinker, if you're trying to get it in on them, in which case you're trying to not get a swing, right?

And you're trying to get it to fall into the zone. What happens if it falls too much into the zone, then it's very hittable, right? And then if you're trying to get them to swing at it and you throw it far away and it's going away, it's going away from the zone. Right. So then the lefty is like, oh, that's that's already on the outside. Plus it has sinker movement. So it's going out. So I'm going to I'm not going to swing at that. So it's really hard to get swings when you want it and not swings

when you don't want it. You know what I mean? Like and what you saw is lefty's got the walks off him. So I'm not gonna swing at that. So it's really hard to get swings when you want it and not swings when you don't want it. You know what I mean? Like, and what you saw is lefty's got the walks off him because of that fastball movement. Anyway, when you have a slot that creates that sideways movement like that, you expect the curve ball to be much more of a slurvy kind of sort of the other component of that.

Like, oh, the fastball goes like this, then this curve's gonna go sideways. It's gonna be kind of a sl the other component of that. Like, oh, the fastball goes like this, then this curve is going to go sideways. It's going to be kind of a slur. He has that death ball where he's able to get on top of that curveball and be more 12 to 6. And to some extent, it's why Aaron Nola is good. But Kumar Rocker's death ball is like at 85 miles an hour, and he's got 98 on the fastball.

So I do think he's going to be good. But there the question marks, there are still some question marks about what he does against the lefties with the fastball. I think now that Kumar Rocker is post surgery out of the rehab phase and it has this run here at the end of the season where he can just pitch and then go into the offseason healthy. He has at least the slate coming up this winter to go ahead and make some more adjustments. It's not just about getting back. Now it's about getting better. And the foundation that he has is really impressive. Right. Like could he, he could start throwing like a cutter, you know, and do kind of cutter four seam sinker

like, you know, he was 38% four seams, 14% sinkers yesterday and that reflects that you're gonna load the lineup of lefties against him. So if he you know did some more cutters off of those four seams against lefties. It might be a good idea But yeah, I it looked really good and he kept the whiffs and I think he set some sort of Rangers rookie For whiffs or rookie debut for whiffs or something like that He's not gonna have a lot of innings next year, you know And so I do think he might make three starts I we were looking at the schedule and it looks like if he takes cody bradford spot in the rotation which is where he lines up he would get a pretty good schedule the rest of the way he would get verses toronto on the eighteenth.

At oakland on the twenty fourth and possibly the last game of the season at the angels so. then possibly the last game of the season at the Angels. So I bet you, you can take Bradford, who has been pitching well and make him the piggyback because what if Kumar is only going to go for or whatever like he did. I think Cody Bradford is more of like a sick starter for the Rangers next year than someone you necessarily want to depend on. And then there's always the chance that either Scherzer gets shut down or that Cody Bradford piggybacks with DeGrom because he won't get depth or even somebody like he evolved to get shut down. You know, like there's there's all sorts of give there.

But since Kumar doesn't have any innings right now, he has 36, 37, 41 innings on the season. I think that behooves them to try and get as many innings as possible down the stretch. Yeah, even if the starts are similar to what we saw in the debut, 75 ish pitches, that's fine. Like there's no there's no need to go deeper than that, given that he's coming off the injury. But I think when you try and say...

He might still sneak you a win, you know? Yeah, it's close enough where he could end up picking up a win or two down the stretch. I think when you look back at what Kumar Rocker did workload-wise at Vandy, that's where you get your high water mark for innings in a season. 122 innings back in 2021 at Vanderbilt. Struck out 179 guys that year. The stuff's back to early Vandy levels, and now maybe it could be even better than that long term. It's not quite as dire when you try to project a workload for Kumar Rocker for 2025.

It's not as dire as like the Garrett crochet situation, but it's probably not quite as good as the Paul skein situation for this year, just based on how they've had to bring him along. Yeah. Proximity to that maximum too, right? Like, right. Cause I mean, skeins through a healthy number of innings last year in his final college season, it was just closer to it.

So it, I'd probably split the difference between wherever you would have projected skeins and wherever you would have projected crochet rockers, probably somewhere in between that, as far as your initial expectation for next year. Like 110, 120 innings maybe. Right. And maybe they ended up pushing them a little harder if everything's going well. But I just think you have a hard time drafting him with a higher expectation than that, given the shape of the last few seasons from him.

Yeah, and you know, I think the Rangers rotation is for next year is starting to take hold a little bit. You're going to see de Grom today or tomorrow? Friday, today. or tomorrow? Friday today today. And, you know, I think even with 110, 120 innings, you pencil in rocker into that rotation. And, you know, you've got you have all these 20 million dollar options, which maybe you can turn maybe you can turn that internally into an extension, you know, and just be like, hey, let's just make it three for 50 or three for 60 or something.

And you've got John Gray coming back. Um, and, uh, and Tyler Malley is, is under contract for next year. So what are we at? Is that four? Four. And I think you said mentioned Bradford before as kind of an extra guy, Bradford lighter yet. Lighter. Yeah. Iford, Jeff Leiter.

Yeah. I mean, they've got enough there already. Leiter, they have all these four innings away from vesting that option. So that should happen. But it is also a question if he takes it. Right. He could he could opt out. Yeah, because he's been pitching well enough that one and 20, you know,

he could ask for three at this point I think in his career so yeah so they will have to sign at least one free agent maybe two but if they sign one and Jack Leiter is your sixth starter and you know and there's other good news later in the prospects portion like you could you could just sign one free agent and so that means Kumar Rocker's spot in that rotation is pretty safe. Yeah but a lot to be excited about in Texas down the stretch as we've talked about and Rocker's debut I think delivered at the level we expected given some of the constraints he was working with. Here's your bizarre story of the week in baseball the twins released a minor leaguer named Derek Bender,

a catcher they just drafted in the sixth round of the 2024 draft after he was tipping pitches, telling opposing hitters what pitches were coming in a recent game. Like, I don't think I've heard of this happening before. I mean, Bull Durham. Sure. Sure, but in reality, not in Hollywood.

Yeah, right. Yeah, no. I mean, this is, and this is extra strange because we're not talking about a five year journeyman who's been in the minor leagues grinding it out and it's just having the, I can't do this anymore sort of vibes, but apparently that's Derek Bender was telling teammates he wanted the season to be over, which all it tells me is like, there's probably a little more to this story that we know right now. He declined comment. There's an ESPN story about it. Other news outlets have

picked it up too. But man, like that's a strange way for your career to probably just end. I don't know if there's a second chance there. I mean, we're talking about a guy that had a pretty good college career, coastal Carolina, and got a $300,000 signing bonus just a few months ago, but did one of those things that on the field is on the short list of stuff that probably does get you that soft ban, unless there's some pretty clear indication of like, oh, this happened because of some stuff that we didn't know about and we'll give them another chance, but it's not going to happen with the twins because they quickly released them. Yeah.

I mean, absent, uh, some further knowledge of, um, you know, I do think of, uh, of sort of, um, maybe some struggles with depression or mentally, some sort of issue there where, and it made me think a little bit of Demar DeRozan who's come out recently, he's written a book about his journey, which has been very public in his battle with depression and how he in some way has led to a requirement

for NBA teams to have a therapist on staff that travels with the team and is confidential to each of the players. led to a requirement for NBA teams to have a therapist on staff that travels with the team and is confidential to each of the players. Um, you know, that, that. I'm sure it does not exist in high a, if it does exist, maybe organizational wide or on the professional level that they have the sort of, um, you know, help, uh, for, for bouts of, uh, of depression or whatever it is that they're dealing with.

So that sort of support may not be there for him and he may not have needed it. Um, you know, I also think of, um, you know, what if he just decided that he couldn't hack it? I mean, you know, one of the things that we've seen is that, um, this is the first time in his career, you mentioned that he really ever struggled. This is the first time his OPS was under 800. I noticed that, uh, he's a 21 year old in low way with 33% strikeout rate. Um, you know,

that's not necessarily a good harbinger for the future. And, uh, maybe he'd just said, you know, this is, this is not going to happen for me. I don't think. Um, and he just wanted to be over so that he could. Start looking for a job or something if that is the case though all these things being true i just wish that there been the chance for him if if there was a didn't take it on him or the chance for him to. You know sort sort of feel vulnerable and say, Hey, I'm not feeling good. I need to get out of the situation right now. If he had gone and done that and said that to the twins, he might still be a

twin because they could, they could have easily said, yeah, you know, he's just, he's got to take some time for himself. I mean, we've seen players take time for themselves in the major league level, you know, where they don't have to explain it. They come back and they're like, yep, I was gone. That's it. I don't want to talk about, you know, like, you know, they could have done that for him.

Um, and instead, I don't know if that, if they had those resources, he didn't take advantage of them or if he just, you know, he couldn't, but that's a sort of thing and the reason why it matters and why I'm trying to humanize him, because I do feel badly for people in these situations. There's gotta be something that's kind of explain it is that he did do something bad though, you know, and we have to keep side of that as well, because there's a picture involved in this and that was the picture is trying to make it, you know? And that was like the worst outing of his career, you know?

And so like if he had done something that was just sort of acting out and they, and they, and they fired him for it, that's one thing. But the thing that he chose to do affected his teammates in a way that they didn't have choice over, you know? So, um, you know, I thought of a lot of things. I thought this was a really fascinating story. It's human, it's raw, it sucks, it sucks for the pitcher. And I feel also badly for the player involved, for Derek Bender. So the whole thing is just rough. But it's really hard on players, especially in low A a and these first times that they're pushing

themselves to, you know, a ton of games, you know, I think that you'll find, uh, people breaking down at the end of those a lot of times. Yeah. I mean, just again, looking through what he's done historically, he's played summer ball a couple of times after a college season, so it's like not completely uncharted territory, but I don't know if he's been dealing with injuries or personal stuff. Like all of those details have not been revealed. But he also did better in those situations, right?

It's a little bit easier to play further into the season if you're like, ah, I'm still sockin' homers, got an 850 OPS, you know? Yeah, again, and that was my thought when I just looked, I'm like, wow, like this was the first time the numbers really weren't good, and maybe that was part of the equation. Maybe it wasn't, maybe it has nothing to do with that, but a very unusual story out of Fort Myers

with the release of a six round pick from just a few months ago. We'll see if anything else comes from that. Maybe we'll get a followup story at some point. I mean, we've had people go into the wilderness and come back. I mean, Evan Gad, we've had people go into the wilderness and come back. I mean, Evan Gattis had a crazy story, you know, where he was like a, a player that could have been, I think he might've been drafted.

And then he struggled with alcoholism and it was like in and out of baseball. And then he came back and was actually like a very good player in the major leagues for awhile. So don't just assume you'll never hear of this guy again. You know, long roads to the big leagues. Sometimes while. So don't just assume you'll never hear of this guy again. Long roads to the big leagues sometimes. We'll see if this one. If he has the desire, right? Right. Yeah.

That's the component. Complete unknown at this point. But let's get to Project Prospect where we crowdsource some of the biggest risers of 2024. A lot of interesting names submitted. And I think we've mentioned this before. We talked about probably the most interesting prospect of the entire season from a riser perspective, Christian Campbell earlier this season in the Red Sox organization and Jen McCaffrey covers the Red Sox for the Athletic.

She put it right out there. She said, you're probably not going to miss Christian Campbell. I asked Jen, I said, where do you think he fits in to their roster once he comes up? Because we've noticed that Christian Campbell can play a lot of positions and play them well. He's not the guy with multiple gloves trying to find a place that makes sense. He's the guy with multiple gloves that can do well anywhere he plays. Jen's estimation was that second base actually probably makes a lot of sense just based on

current organizational needs. They've got Sedan Raffaella, they've got Trevor Story, who's now back. David Hamilton. David Hamilton. They've got a lot of depth right now at shortstop. So there's a path for Campbell to make an impact in 2025. I think it's safe to say. Second is where he's played the most this year too. Yeah, of prospects in the minor leagues this year. This is probably the biggest riser of all. So if you happen to miss that episode, I thought it was important to at least

mention Christian Campbell again. He's jumped up a ton of prospect lists, understandably so, because he's been great this year. I think baseball America just announced that Roman Anthony is number one. Yeah. I think with the graduations and everything that, uh, so that's, uh, you know, Hey, did heimblum do a good job, baby? I'm pretty sure he did actually.

I think at least he didn't do a bad enough job to be fired at the time that he was fired. That's my overall assessment. Well, yeah. So I'm excited for Chris Campbell. It looks like a, one of those really tasty combinations of contact, uh, patience and power and speed and maybe not plus defense if he's going over to second base, but enough defense where it's not even is set in stone that it will be second, you

know, like it's, he's going to have defensive value somewhere. It's not, he may not be, uh, at a premium up to middle position, but he's going to have defensive value somewhere. It's not he may not be at a premium up to middle position, but he's going to have defensive value for somewhere. Tim Britton threw us Brandon Sprote, pitcher for the Mets, who I mentioned in a rehab outing for Jacob deGrom. Sprote was touching 100 in a recent start. I mean, his his stuff has really ticked up and it doesn't look like he's far away from the big leagues at all.

I mean, probably early 2025 as someone who's shown electric stuff. I know the results haven't been there at AAA, so maybe they'll want to see a run of decent starts to begin next season before they give him that opportunity. But I could see Brendan Sprout spending most of next year in the big leagues. He's been mentioned a couple of times on the show this year. of next year in the big leagues. He's been mentioned a couple of times on the show this year. Katie Wu gave us Quinn Matthews in the Cardinals organization and it leads me to wonder, are the Cardinals starting to find a little bit more

on the pitching side? Have they started to change just enough where we can be a little bit excited about Quinn Matthews, maybe Tekoa Roby once he gets healthy, Tink Hentz, someone we've talked about a few times, but it seems like Quinn Matthews has made a bigger leap than expected. I just saw he's inside the top 50 of our friend James Anderson's updated prospect ranks.

I'm tempted to say yes, but I have to tell you something about Quinn Matthews that makes him so very Cardinals like. He has a below 100 stuff plus and he has an 87 stuff plus on his four scene. Hmm. So on that side, it looks the same, but by results, how many recent Cardinals pitching prospects have had K rates above 30% at multiple stops. I just think it's might be based a little bit more on having a large mix with decent command of all those pitches than it is based on any one

number, and I will point out. Oh, OK. They weren't as good as I thought. I thought Matthew Libertor had really great minor league numbers, but they weren't this good. That would have been really disappointing because I actually like Matthew Libertor. And if they if he if he had success at that same level. Yeah, not quite there, like low to mid 20s at a lot of stops for the K-rate.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, not not the same. But we do have the stuff numbers on Quinn Matthews don't really line up with that K rate. So that is worth mentioning because we've seen some other guys with really high minor league K rates come up and not really produce those at the major league level. You know, I think of Brian Bayo, I'm not singling him out, but like, you know, there are other guys like that. really produce those at the major league level. I think of Brian Bay, I'm not singling him out,

but there are other guys like that. So I'm cautiously optimistic about Matthews. At least he's going into a good situation with a 30% minor league K-rate. I like that. Yeah, good park. But I'm not gonna put him on top of my list. He's not near the top of my list.

No, but I think he will be a useful Cardinal starter. Like that's a, that's a pretty big rise overall. Like another guy to be excited about. Cause it really, it was hence or Roby or hence and Roby for most people looking for the next couple of high quality Cardinal starter. So it's having one more in that group or maybe having Matthews replacing Roby. That's a good sign for them from an organizational perspective as well. Levi Weaver just wanted to mention Sebastian Walcott because he's reached

double A mentioned a little earlier in the show, 18, 18 year old at double A, which gives you an idea of the ceiling. I mean, he's top end prospect and everybody's list. I think what, what's worth mentioning here is that earlier in the season you probably could have made a move to get Sebastian Walcott. Now he's sort of entered that group of almost ungettable prospects in a lot of key foreign dynasty leagues because of where he's ranking. And that's why I do think that you should in your deeper prospect leagues or just deeper prospect leagues are just in your headspace if you're a fan, leave some room for like that high A, low A guy with incredible numbers and but also not depend on until they make

that jump. I mean, I know that Walcott's only been a double A for 12 plate appearances, so it's not like he's quote unquote made the jump. But that is such a significant moment when they've actually crossed the barrier into double A. There are so many players in low A and high A that have bonkers numbers, let alone complex leagues. So just the fact that he's completed that level,

he's made it to this next one, he's 18, like all these things line up. But then on top of that, what he's really done a great job of working on is his contact rate. It's fallen, the swing strike rate has fallen, over time to pair and powers come to meet it. So it's not a profile that's not without risk,

but it is very exciting. I was just trying to look back and see if we've had even in the last, like I think the leaderboard goes back to 2006. How many position players age 18 or younger have played at double A since 2006? It's as far back as it goes. How many do you think there are? I'm going to guess like 15, maybe like two a year. Even less.

It's 10. 10. 10. Do I know any of them? Is it Jackson Churio or? Yep. Jackson Churio did it. Nice.

You just did, Hey, congratulations to Jackson Churio 2020 at 20. Youngest in MLB history to do it. Right? Yep. How about that? So this list is pretty fun. Samuel Bisallo, who's currently in the Orioles organization, did it last year. Sebastian Walcott just did it this year.

Fernando Martinez did it for the Mets back in 2007. That's a deep cut. That one. I, that was one where I thought he was he was on the cusp. He's going to make it. He did not make it. He did not make it. And that was like 60 games.

A lot of these guys, it was a handful of games because it was their birthday. They just barely made it to the level for the end of the season. They got called up for the playoffs. Bryce Harper did it in 2011. Yeah, I mentioned that. You saw Nelson Rada has been doing it all season in the Angels organization. I think he came up on a project prospect earlier this year. Uh, eggy Rosario did it for the Padres for three games back in 2018. Just three games, but still made it.

Ethan Salas as a 17 year old last year went down a level this year. That kind of speaks to the thing we're talking about with the Padres pushing guys. Yeah, that's very aggressive. Uh, Santiago Chavez for the A's in 2014 got three games and then Churio. So yeah, it's a pretty short list, especially of guys that have been there for more than a series and for Walcott, it's going to be a handful of games. It'll be probably 15 games or something by the end of the season. But that being on that list alone is not enough, as you can see.

No, no, just getting there is not enough, but it's some pretty high ceiling future Hall of Famers on that list that are really cool to see on there. So worth mentioning, right? Ungettable now, I think is the right way to describe Sebastian Walcott. Andrew Bagley sent us Bryce Eldridge, and I think similar thinking here is not like Eldridge

wasn't off the radar coming into the season, but he got the AA this year. and that's probably moving a little faster than people expected. I think we've looked at Eldridge and thought maybe 2025 is actually a possibility. He's desperate for power man. Yeah. I think he'll be in the major leagues next year. I don't know if it'll be to begin the season because that'd be pretty aggressive, but you know, just imagine you're Farhan. So Farhan has come out recently and there's been some reporting that, um, his contract is not guaranteed next year.

So Farhan came out and said, there is language in my contract and, and my managers that gets us into 2026 but it is correct that is not fully guaranteed. So he's under contract for next year but it's not fully guaranteed I think this is the most lame duck a GM could be. I mean it is really close. So imagine your Fajon next year and let's say you sign a first baseman or you go in with your Gérard Encarnacion slash, I don't know, plan. Who's the, who's another first baseman that's under contract for them next year? Wade's probably still around. Oh yeah, so Wade, you go in, you say Wade and Encarnacion and we've got first base handled, you know?

And then that doesn't work out and that's not working. And Bryce Eldridge is mashing and it's May. I think you pulled the trigger. Okay. So you think it's possible that in the old fabapalooza window in May, that's the possible sort of early end. I think the more realistic expectation would probably be August where they can preserve rookie of the year status for 2026.

And then do you not consider preserving rookie of the year status if you don't think you'll be there next year? If you're just trying to keep if he's hitting enough, then sure. Then that's a factor to consider like, hey, we got to try and get another boost here. But I wonder, I still wonder if the Giants might have a path to Pete Alonzo in free agency. You know, you can use them as more of a DH things once Eldridge is up. They need thumb. But Eldridge has played some, he played some right field in 2023.

Um, be interesting to see if they do, they do sign Alonzo. Um, but he is, he's not quite unattainable. He's been pretty hard to trade for, but in auto new, uh, I decided, because I think he's so close, I paid $3 for him. I have this sort of rule in auto news. I don't ever really want to have a prospect for $5 because then by the time he comes up, he's going to be six or $7. And that's a lot of pressure to put on a player to be worth $7 out of the

gate. You know what I mean? So I try to keep guys that sort of zero to three, and I try to keep them at one because you're going to have to, they're going to keep adding dollars while you're waiting for them to get to the major leagues. But in this case, I said, I think I'm going to pay three, make sure I get him. He's going to be four for me next year. And I think he's going to be in the big leagues next year. So that was that was thinking out loud.

Now everybody in my league knows exactly what I'm down on a player. But I think they missed this episode. You know, it's possible. Anyway, so I have Eldridge for three. I've got a new philosophy at Auto New, because I'm relatively new to playing it, but I'm okay with holding on to the inexpensive far away prospect in this format because the rosters are so deep.

It's just, it's sort of like how we talk about managing a redraft rosters where you can have one prospect or one injured guy that you stash and then the rest of your bench has to be guys that are helping you right now. Yeah, I feel good at sort of three to four. If I'm rebuilding five, if I'm in contention, one. Yeah, you kind of toggle it based on where you're at for sure, because I picked up Jesus Made in the Brewers organization, even though he's in the Dominican Summer League, because he's starting to show up on top 100 lists that are being updated in season and is entering the off season with as much hype as any prospect in baseball, right?

And there's a lot of ways this can go. It could take him a long time to get to the big leagues. He could not even make it to the big leagues. He could be a superstar. Like all those things are thrown into the table. Or he could hit the trio, the trio rocket ship and be in the big leagues in two years. So if I get him, I got him for a buck. It'll be two bucks for next year. Probably be three bucks for 2026. He gets close to double A next year

or at least finishes the A ball circuit. Yeah, like splits his season between the two A ball levels and does really well. And then we're talking about him as a possible top 10 prospect going into the next season. Yeah, because he could maybe just get a taste in double A playoffs or something. Right, so I thought that was actually a risk worth taking.

You can't have eight guys like that on your auto new team, but I didn't have anyone quite that far away other than Josue Di Paula from the Dodgers organization. He's further along than Made, but you know, I just, I wanna have a couple guys like that all the time and keep her leagues because if you're right, the payoff is huge. If you're wrong, it's an easy drop. You could move on. Take your chance on somebody else. The other submission from one of the beat writers was from David O'Brien covers the Braves Nacho Alvarez Jr. We did see briefly in the big leagues for a little while earlier this year and Drake Baldwin. in the big leagues for a little while earlier this year and Drake Baldwin, a catcher who I think is knocking on the door to be ready probably reasonably in 2025. He's already up at AAA, putting up great numbers there. 15% K-rate, 15% walk rate, 51.2% hard hit rate at AAA this year

from the FanGraphs numbers, a dozen homers in 64 games. So I think Drake Baldwin is a lot more interesting now than he was entering this year. And he wasn't a bad prospect before, but mostly last year spent the year at high A. And to see him finishing at triple A having success points to a guy that should be a nice contributor behind the plate sooner rather than later. I just distrust catching prospects so heavily. That's so. I'm like, I mean, this is the, you just look at his, you know,

AA this year, he had a 0.093 ISO, you know? Um, I, I don't, I distrust it and I think they take forever to get here. So I, yeah, I I'm aware of Baldwin, but like I'd rather have Coero Coero and, um, Chicago. rather have Coerro in Chicago. You're the Edgar Carrow. Edgar Carrow. I think there's just, you know, his, his, the path to playing time is easier. You know, um, I think he'll get there first. Uh, not your offer as junior gives me a little bit of on Grissom revives,

a little bit of power, a little bit of speed, a little bit of patience, a little bit of contact, a little bit of speed, a little bit of patience, a little bit of contact. Probably not a star, but I find him interesting. We got a big riser in the pirate system. Who's interesting to me is Carlson Reed. I don't know who gave us that, but thanks. Keith Law sent us a bunch of names. Carlson Reed was among those names. And I think we're reaching the point. And when Keith joined the show a couple months ago,

we kind of threw this out there. The Pirates might be one of the next organizations that we consider to be very good at developing pitching. And Reed would be part of another group behind the likes of even Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington, some of the guys we've already seen move into the upper levels of the system. This is another high quality prospect.

He's gonna finish the season at high A, nearly a 30% K rate at both stops. The concern is reliever risk because of command, but it's three average or better pitches by the scouting grades with that below average command. We talk about that profile a lot on this show as one that teams should try to develop as long as they can as a starter. And given that Reed's a little behind some of the guys that are closer, I think he has that space to do it. It's not like it's too crowded where there's four other good starters or five other good starters at the same level. They're going to bump into that role too early. So I like what

Reid brings to the table on paper, which is a guy that hasn't received a lot of hype yet, but could be out there in some deeper leagues. Really interesting numbers here. 44% CSW on the slider to lefties. And 35 CSW. No, and the change. Oh, yeah. OK, that's the slider to lefties, which is kind of crazy. The change up 35 CSW to lefties

and versus righties, the slideriders 36 and the change up is 38. So like his change up and slider work to both hands. And another interesting thing is he's, he's only up to 93 miles per hour. So it's not a big VLO. And so from what I gather, it's not something that stuff metrics are picking up so well yet. But we know that changeups don't always register great on models. And there's something about his changeup that is really good. So you know, here that he's a cool and calm kid, was a reliever, who's So, you know, hear that he's a cool and calm kid,

was a reliever who's like, you know, may still have more velocity in him because he's sort of building into the role as a starter. So definitely some reliever risk, but also some noise that he may be the pitcher of the minor league year for the Pirates. That's pretty interesting. So it actually kind of sounds, I don't know, like, like the Parker Messick fastball in

some ways where it's not necessarily big V lo, but maybe it's just not getting picked up really well. Like that could be something, something deceptive about it. Maybe, maybe it ends up being a swelling back thing too, where he's got a pretty decent arsenal. He's, you know, new to starting and, you know, he, he figures it out well and has above average command or you're saying the command is a risk though. I mean, that's what the scouting grades have on it is command risk, but enough pitches,

enough quality pitches where the risk is worth taking, especially in an organization that's doing so well on the pitching development side. I think that's also something that can lead you in or out on someone. I'm a little predisposed to, uh, guys who do register well in the stuff metrics and, um, and, and give us those vetoes. Um, so I think I have him behind, um, uh, Alejandro, Alejandro Rosario. Uh, was that another Keith one? Yeah.

Yeah. Keith put that name in there too. So I'm, I'm curious what you've got on Rosario. So he's in the, uh, in the Rangers, uh, uh, uh, development system. And I, and I think that, I think there's something changing there. I think it's improving. I mean, I think Jack Leiter's starting to come out the other side. The Kumar rocker development has to be seen

as a positive, you know? And now you have Alejandro Rosario who throws a 97 mile an hour fastball, 85 mile an hour slider, and 91 mile an hour splitter. And he was top five in the minors for qualified starters in K divided by BB. So, you know, according to some internal stuff metrics, one like one of the best stuff plus guys in the minors. So I don't know. That's that's that's like your more traditional, you know, blows your socks off.

You know, a 22 year old in high A with 37% strikeout rate and the stuff metrics to back it up. I mean, that's, you know, that's where I start to really take notice. I don't know when he'll make it. It's probably a 2026 or but you know, because we're pushing our arms. We're getting so many injuries and we're pushing our arms like you may see him next year. Yeah, it could be a deep sleeper for twenty twenty five. And he pitched in college workload this year is probably going to come in close to about 100 total innings when it's all said and done. And you could see him starting next year at double A or getting to double A very quickly

since he's kind of split this year between low A and high A in that system. So yeah. So what if he's got 50 innings in double A next year? They're one of their starters is hurt and he's got another 75 innings left in them at that point. You know, like he, those might be at the major league level. I would, I would put the over under at like 20 innings or 30 innings,

but I could see him putting as much as 75 innings in the major leagues. Yeah, just to bolster a rotation that might need some second half reinforcements next year. Maybe the opposite situation. It might be a healthy rotation going into the year that needs a little help late, as opposed to one that was banged up

in the first half this year with guys coming off major injuries and just trying to find solutions. So we'll see if thated up in the first half this year with guys coming off major injuries and just trying to find solutions. So we'll see if that lines up with the arrival of Alejandro Rosario. There's George Klassen is someone we've talked about before. The Angels got him at the traded line from the Phillies. Not surprisingly, the Angels bumped him at the AA right away and the strikeout rates dropped, the walk rates jumped up.

So those metrics going in the wrong direction. But another guy where if you like to bet on the stuff over command profiles, or at least the guys that have a lot of stuff and they're still kind of working on command, Clausen absolutely fits that description. The prospects TLDR from Eric Long and hanging over at fan graph says he's still really wild. Yes. And they're saying a late

inning relief projection. But if he has three plus pitches, there's always the door open for starting. I think you know. Teams are so desperate for starters. If you have three plus pitches in the minor leagues, they're going to. They're going to keep you at

starter as long as they can. Absolutely, so we've talked a lot about Colossus before. We don't have to get too far into the weeds with him. Another name from Keith though is Jaden Hamm in the Tigers organization. I just saw he cracked the top 100 list over at Baseball America. A Hamm with two M's like ham, but two M's.

I think I'm pretty sure it's Jaden Hamm, like the gymnast, the Hamm twins. Not hams? Not like the beer? Could be like the beer. I think it's Hamm. I'll try to get confirmation. Ooh, those are some sexy strikeout rights. Yeah, the limitations of the pronunciation guide are always a problem. But another college arm, another guy from the 2023 draft class, fifth rounder, went to middle Tennessee state. So,

you know, not as highly regarded as a program, but a big school, big program nonetheless. And now by most public facing rankings is the number two pitching prospect in their organization behind Jackson Jobe. So that's a massive leap. He spent really all of this year at high A West Michigan, well over a strikeout per inning, no major control issues, no major home run problems. Probably gonna see a long window at double A to begin next year and then we'll have a better sense

of the timetable, but kind of a similar situation to the other names we've talked about where it's not unthinkable to see how I'm in the mix for a spot at some point by the end of next year if everything keeps going well. Yeah, one piece that makes me a little bit cautious on him and might be a little surprising is that he came in with a fastball and a curveball and no slider really that that he was in love with. And so. The fastball, one thing that the Tigers have done, according to

an interview with him by David Larrilla over at Fangrass, was that they were like, hey, throw this high in the zone. He's like, oh, that's a thing people do. Because he'd been taught in college to be more at the knees. So that's helped him strikeout rate wise and also obviously helps with a nice spike curveball That's 12 to 6 you got the good. You know he's becoming a north-south guy you know, but He's tried a sweeper. He's on a gyro slider right now. He's

Trying to make this the fat the slider work the reason I bring it up is that not every guy Who has a curveball can spin a slider. We've seen that Adam Wainwright never really had a good slider. And then we have Casey Mize who in my interview today admitted he does not spin the ball well. And he has reverse splits where if Casey Mize only face lefties he'd be good. He has reverse splits where if Casey Meyers only faced lefties, he'd be good. I promise you. And stuff plus likes his slider, but the results are bad and I'm not even sure that Casey Meyers is going to try and do the right thing because he's just trying to throw it harder. I think maybe he should just try to have more drop on it. In any case,

you don't come in with a feel for spin. You're just not necessarily necessarily gonna be my number one or two or three prospect. You know what I mean? Like I'm just, I'm a little bit, little bit predisposed to wanting Velo and feel for spin. If I could have, if we were having a draft of skill sets for pitchers, that's where I'd start.

Well, you could do that sometime. Put all the skill set things for a pitcher out there. Yeah. And have like a draft. Yeah. Command, large arsenal, you know, north-south, east-west, you know, fastball, each of the pitches, feel for spin. Yeah, I wonder, wonder what would be under drafted in there. I wonder if we'd possibly get wrong. People would say, no, you actually need more. Nick Pollock likes command a little more than I do.

So I think he might even take it first. I think because I spend so much time with you, I've, I've been completely steeped in the stuff over command. So I see a 30 command grade and I'm like, how many good pitches does he have? Three? I don't care if he's got 30 command. Yeah. So I see a 30 command grade and I'm like, how many good pitches does he have? Three? I don't care if he's got 30 command. And people that analyze pitching outside of this pod are like, you sure about that?

30 command? Like you're really comfortable? Like you do understand how bad 30 command is? Like yeah, that is pretty bad. But I think I've also started to subscribe to an idea that you can improve command. That command is not permanent. Stuff's not permanent either. Like these things can both change.

So I mean, you could you could maybe present some interesting data looking back at the last 10 years and say, hey, we got all these pictures that here's a bunch of guys that had average or better arsenals, but like average command or good command. And then here's a bunch of guys that but like average command or good command. And then here's a bunch of guys that had above average stuff, below average command. Here are the outcomes for them. And maybe you could show me over time, there was more improvement from the command group,

getting better stuff. There was from the stuff group, getting better command. And maybe then I would dial back my love for just throwing command aside and falling in love with multiple plus pitches. Well, maybe they'll always have Dylan Cease. 80 stuff, 40, 40, 40 command. Right. That's what I'm always hoping for is to find the next Dylan Cease at a bargain, I think.

A couple more hitters to get to here. These also came from Keith Law. Demetrio Crisantes in the Diamondbacks organization. He was a seventh rounder out of high school in 2022. He actually had two Tommy John surgeries in high school. So where he plays on the infield probably gets dictated by how well his arm and progresses over time might be a second baseman. But I got the line that I always like from people who are great scouts. I got that he can really hit like those four words mean a lot. You've had people tell you that before he can really hit like

the simple words and like, what does that mean? It means he can really hit when baseball people say that to you. It's a special bat nine times out of 10. So I think there's a name right there that was not on my radar at all that I'm gonna try and start to sneak on to some rosters before the hype gets to the point where he's like a consensus top 100 guy.

I'm sure for in season updates, he's already starting to make his way out of those lists. If anybody's interested in a deep dive into Hit Tool, there's a great piece on baseball prospectus about the in-zone contact rates by Ben Zeidman. So what he's talking about is we tend to think of in-zone contact rate as a thing that more is better for Hittal. And what he found was actually there's a, it's a shelf statistic.

So there's a, there's a minimum amount of in-zone contact you have to have to make the major leagues. And then every bit above that does not actually inform your outcomes that much more. And so I kind of think of that a little bit when I look at Chris Sates, because he has a swing strike rate that I would say is plus, but it's not tiny, you know, uh, to have someone say he really hit. Oh, that's okay. He has a really good hit tool.

Okay. Well, uh, he had a 9% uh, swing strike rate in the complex league and then he has 7.3, um, in a ball. Those are good numbers. Those are not like, oh, he's gonna be the next Luis Araya's numbers, right? But what I'm saying here is it almost doesn't matter. You know what matters more? after you get to a certain shelf of contact ability is

Stuff like max EV or 90th percentile EV Things like can you hit high in the zone and low in the zone? Um, and so he lists in that piece, a bunch of the other things that are really important to draft analysts as he is, um, that, uh, go beyond just looking at swinging strike rate and saying he can really hit. So yeah, 355 average in the complex league for Croisantes, 333 in a ball, you know, good ISOs. If you had access to some of his exit velocities, maybe you'd see, you know, I would guess like a 107 or 108 max EV, you're hoping he grows in that a little bit,

but then you also look at contact rates in the zone. You say, oh, he's good high and low in the zone. So he's covering, that a little bit, but then you also look at contact rates in the zone. You say, oh, he's he's good high and low in the zone. So he's covering that's that's the modern. It's a really cool look at the modern way of trying to approximate it to because it's still one of the hardest things to put a number to. Yeah, has the quick hands in scouting report that Eric Lungenhagen has up on him as well. That's what you usually find for guys that get to the ball often like

Chris Santis does, but also have some power to go along with it. I wouldn't look too far into age to level in this instance because of the injuries. I think that's why he's been held back. So I would imagine that 2025 could be a more aggressive year for a guy like Chris Santis, where if they start him at high A and he crushes it, he's going to be a double A for a long time. And that would be, that'd be the big breakout that could push his rule five eligible in December 26.

So they also have a reason to move him fast. They need to figure out fairly soon. What's going on with them. Last name here for you that I think is really tough for us to get excited about and keep her in dynasty leagues, but the organization has me thinking twice about it. The last one that Keith sent us was Trey Morgan. And if you read the Rays outlooks from Keith's initial rankings this season, he described Morgan as an elite defender at first base with a slap profile.

Morgan has been making adjustments to his swing though. Got a new swing, got a different bat and actually was showing a high teens home run pace at high A this year before getting the bump up to double A. So could be some developing power on a guy that has great back to ball, elite low like Steven Kwan, Luis Arias type strikeout rates. So it's a weird profile, especially for a guy that plays first base, but how do you see this possibly developing in the Rays organization? I think this might be a slow burn.

I mean, he just finally cut his ground ball rate percentage, you know, his ground ball rate to like a place where I could see the power coming. And his, you know, his strikeout rate at double A with this new ground ball rate kind of exploded for him. It's still not high. So I could see him kind of having to adjust and adjust back and kind of maybe sort of fits and lurches.

Um, but at 22, uh, and rule five eligible in December 26, uh, he's either going to be traded in the coming year or he's going to see he's going to see a lot of time at double A and maybe even some time at triple A. Yeah, I want to see a little more in terms of batted ball quality just to know like how how slappy is it now with the adjustments? I mean, I'm sure the way it was and the way it was described, it used to be low EVs and low max.

But I wonder if we saw some big growth with the adjustments that Trey Morgan made this year. So a lot of great names there. So thanks to Keith and David O'Brien, Andrew Bagley, Levi Weaver, Katie Wu, Tim Britton and Jen McCaffrey for playing along and helping us crowdsource some of the biggest risers among prospects this year. Let's get to our weekend waiver preview. We got a few names to throw out there.

I was starting to wonder, is Spencer Horowitz actually showing us some 12-team league skills? He's got 12 homers and 320 plate appearances now this year. A 277, 363, 471 line, a sub-20% K-rate, double-digit walk rate, kind of doing everything we're looking for from a regular hitter. Is this going to work? Are we going to be talking about Spitzer Horowitz through all of next season as an everyday guide for the Jays? Yeah, it's interesting because it's it's one of those ones with the barrel rate

outpaces the max CV, you know, and we've seen that in AAA, we've seen that in the majors so far, we've seen that despite kind of mediocre max EVs, he's had average or above average power at most stops in the minor. So I don't think he's necessarily a guy that you can just double the homer total and say, oh, next year he's going to have 25 homers. Um, you know, but, uh, I could see him being a sort of 15 to 18 homer guy with a two 75 to 80 average, um, and a good on base percentage. And that's all going to add up to a good WRC plus if you're reading between the lines, which means he's going to be a regular, you know, he's going to be a guy that stays in there.

I mean, right now he's 137 WRC plus project is his current one is projected as a one 10 from the bad X or one 20 from steamer. If you even if you take a one 10 and then you take the normal platoon split off of that, you would expect him to be around league average against lefties. So if he's around the average against lefties and 10 to 20% better than the average against, you know, uh, against everybody, I think he's in all the time. And this is a Blue Jays team that's been looking to see who is going to, you know, be a regular on this team next year. I think he's the big winner out of everybody.

Maybe Clement is in there and maybe Horowitz is in there. And I could also see them shopping and free agency because I don't think Lowe Profito is a regular. I'm not sure. Will Wagner's a regular. I'm not sure David Schneider's a regular. So there's still a spot that they can maybe go and buy an older outfielder, you know, on a short term deal. I do think they might, I don't necessarily see them going and dropping a bunch of coin on Juan Soto because it's, it seems like it'd be a weird time to do that if they have to

also then make the decision on Vlad Guerrero and Beau Bechet extensions. But Rogers always kind of, you know, surprises sometimes with the way they'll throw their money around. So Soto, Blue Jay and Horowitz, the second baseman. Yeah. I wonder which member of the Shark Tank cast we're going to be tracking during free agency this year. That's going to be fun. But I'm with you.

I think there's enough here for this to actually work for Horowitz for next season. Same kind of question for you with Andreas Shaparo. You could pick him up in some Shadow Leagues where he's still available down the stretch, but they've been hitting him third, fourth in that Nats lineup. Lots of key pieces for next year already on the roster, and maybe they would shuffle the order a little bit as they get a better look at Dylan Cruz

and some of the future stars that might be hitting behind Shapiro, but he's had one day off since the middle of August. So they're giving him a really long look. And it's always been a bat first profile with some questions about whether the glove is good enough to play anywhere. What do you see so far from Shapiro? Do you think we're talking about him next year as a fringy like 12 team guy that could actually make an impact?

He's okay. I mean, the contact rates, decent, uh, the max of these haven't been good this year, but have been good in the past. Um, you know, he's one of these guys who's kind of traveling around a little bit. He was a Yankee in 2023 and a diamond back to begin this season. Um, and, uh, now a starter for the nationals, speaking of one soda, there's a piece up today, um, about why it would make sense for one soda to come back to the nationals.

Um, and I do think. Not necessarily that it has to be one Soto, but that Andre Soparo is one of those guys that maybe plays while you're rebuilding, but maybe isn't a starter when you're good. And so there's always the risk that they get good faster than you think, or that they go spend money on a first baseman. Maybe they get Pete Alonso, you know, because this is a team that's on the cusp and you never know what they're going to do. And I doubt that they're going to be necessarily satisfied with the 25 year old who's projected to be either worse than league average or league average with

the bat and not have a lot of glove in him. But in the short term for the rest of this season, you know, I'm looking at a Washington Nationals team that is going to be home against the Royals and Phillies to end the season against Miami. You know, so there's some schedule juice in there for him. He's not really facing a lot of great pitchers except for that Cubs series where he gets Steele and Imanaga and then the end he gets Suarez, Wheeler, Nola. So there's, you know, there's a spot here where like, you know,

he's about to get Valente Bellozo, Adam Aller, you know, Tyler McGill, Jose Quintana. Like there's a chance for him to have a good week or two. But, you know, would you start him against Suarez, Nola and Wheeler to finish the season as much as you might like him in the meantime? I would try not to because those are really tough matchups, but you know, the high volume of playing time might be enough in deeper leagues to keep it afloat even in those difficult matchups for Shapiro. Like it's it's okay. Not great. I think is the way I'd look at it with that schedule.

There's a bunch of middle infielders. It's kind of an open would you rather for the waiver purposes. One of the corner guy, I guess I'll just throw a mention Anthony Rizzo's back So he might be out there in some leagues, but I'm not sure he's the same Anthony Rizzo anymore But if you're looking for a middle infielder, you have a bunch of different guys You got Trevor story coming back from his long IELTS in you got Trey Sweeney playing a lot right now for the Tigers Got Jacob Wilson back from that hamstring strain, and you got Thomas Sejese coming up for the Cardinals getting an opportunity right now.

So where is your interest if you're trying to find an upgrade out of that group? I think for speed, it's Trevor Story. He's already stealing bases, and he has the highest speed upside down of all of them for batting average. It's Jacob Wilson He has great contact rates and he puts the ball in play All the time and has had really great batting averages up and down the minors. I think that'll continue I Know that leaves the gaseci sort of Sejese.

Sejese, yeah. Sejese, that leaves him sort of in between, but he has shown power and speed in the minors this year. You know, there's a question of which way the strikeout rate's gonna go. None of his batted ball stats leap off the page as being particularly plus. But if you need power and speed, I suppose, um, that could be an option for you.

I think I would rank them sort of loosely in that direction. Story, Wilson, Segeci. Hmm. Trey Sweeney in that mix ahead of Segeci? Oh yeah. I think I might have Sweeney ahead of CJC because they both have some swing and miss in their profile, but Sweeney's batted ball stats, like his hard hit rate and his max CB and stuff are a little bit better. Yeah, I think that's how I set it up too. I would have Sweeney ahead of CJC if both are available, but I

think if you're looking for that little bit of everything sort of production, that's where CJC comes in with Story being the best speed option, Wilson being the best average option of this group. Waiver Arms, actually not as bad as they have been in recent week. We'll run through these pretty quickly, but Landon Nack's getting another look because of Kershaw and Gavin Stone being on the IL. It's going to be a streaming opportunity against the Marlins next week, so that's a two thumbs up where available, maybe one of the better streamers that you could possibly get in certain instances.

I'm wondering if Reese Olsen comes back, if you would throw him against the Orioles next week. Some question about how many pitches he'll have in him. But I do. I think I'd rather have that on my bench if that's a possibility. And maybe he'll have more pitches September 26 against the Rays. If if that matters, if that I tend to think that probably he's one of those guys where you leave him out there for the Baltimore game and you hope that maybe you can get him for that last and that last waiver group for the last week. Yeah. Or you pick him up, stash him and then just activate him

for the final matchup if you have a luxury doing dollar days. If you've got that luxury, how about a Jordan Wicks two step home against the A's home against the Nats only 13% rostered on CBS right now. He's a guy that has confounded my model to some extent but I love the matchups. I think that he's probably the best two stepper that's available most things. Yeah pretty good idea to push that given that both those starts are at home as well. Joey Cantillo for deep leagues kind of stands out to me as a name that's available a lot of places, got knocked around in a couple of his first few starts, looked really good against the White Sox, because a lot of people look really good against the White Sox.

Home against the Twins, only 4% rostered on CBS. Basically, it would come down to Joey Cantillo versus someone like Ian Anderson, who could actually step back into Atlanta's rotation after injuries and a multi-year gap because of the Ronaldo Lopez absence with the shoulder inflammation that knocked him out of a start this week. I'm taking Cantillo easily. It's an above average fore seam and above average to strong slider. And then the stuff plus doesn't love his change up but the change

up has always gotten good grades in the prospect report it was his best grade over at fangraph 60 on the change up so I'm going to believe in that change up despite the stuff plus and I think he's also somebody that you could pick up in say an auto new league or a keeper league where if you can get them for a dollar or two and be a backend starter for you next year a depth starter for you next year. That would be a good idea. I like him. Pick him up at one keep him at three for Joey Cantillo.

I think you've always been a little bit down on Ian Anderson but he has pitched a little better at triple A recently 45 to 21 strikeout to walk since the start of August 324 ERA, but a 127 whip during that span I don't know if anything is really different about Anderson than the last time we saw him I think that would be the thing I would need to see to get really excited or at least to see him as more than a streamer on a good team Just checking the stuff plus real quick. He was never a stuff plus darling and it's even worse now So I will not even tell you these numbers. Those are Wow Even worse, you know his change up. You remember he's like he had a good change up and it did well

60 stuff plus right now and it in he's thrown 303 of them. So it's not a sample thing It's just the stuff plus model has never liked to change up and likes it even less. Now does not have him with a single pitch over a hundred. You know, it is possible he's one of those guys that have a little bit of a Bailey O'Barriske weirdness to his release point in that it's kind of crazy over the top and I could see him, you know, just not being captured by models correctly, but also coming off like a 4-3 ERA and AAA with a 23% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate. The results are not jumping off the page in a way that I have to reevaluate my priors on this one just yet. Yeah. I mean, even back in 2021 when he put up good ratios and a hitter friendly season, like that didn't come with an amazing strikeout rate.

It came with kind of an okay one. Sierra pointed to a guy whose skills were more of like a mid-fours ERA sort of picture than a mid threes guy. So be careful, but he's coming back if you're desperate. At your own risk. Yeah, at your own risk. We're going to go on our way out the door. A reminder, you can get a subscription to the athletic for $2 a month at theathletic.com

slash rates and barrels. You can find Eno on Twitter at EnoSaris. You can find me at Derek van Rijp, or find the pod at rates and barrels. Have a great weekend. We are back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening. College football is back like never before. I'm David Ubbin and I host Until Saturday, the athletics leveled up college football

podcast. Three times a week you'll hear me and my co-host, fellow athletics senior writer Chris Finini and two-time national champion Damian Harris embrace the sport's new madness with you. We're also just going to have a ton of fun enjoying all the things that make college football great. Check out the brand new Until Saturday every Monday, Wednesday and Thursday this fall. You can find us wherever you listen to your podcasts.