Rates & Barrels - The Final FAB and Sandy Alcantara’s Possible Return

Episode Date: September 22, 2023

Eno and Al take their final look at weekly FAB, identifying players to target to help out in the season’s concluding week. They also discuss Max Fried’s move to the IL as well as Shane Bieber’s return and Sandy Alcantara’s timetable, and they talk about their expectations for Rays prospect Junior Caminero, who is set to make his major league debut. Rundown 1:24 IL comings and goings: Max Fried, Sandy Alcantara, Shane Bieber 12:42 The rest of the big news 20:47 How to approach the final FAB 24:14 Hitters to consider 37:41 Starters to target 45:03 Closer Corner Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello everybody and happy Friday. This is Rates and Barrels. I'm Al Melker. It is Friday, September 22nd and as has been the case for the last several weeks, I am here with Eno Saris. And this is the final weekend preview show. We will be doing another Friday Rates and Barrels a week from now. But this is obviously, if you check your calendar, the last time that we'll be able to preview waivers and just talk about fantasy baseball for the week ahead. So we'll be doing, I guess, more of kind of like a retrospective type of thing next week. That'll be fun. But, you know, we got, you know, one more week of fantasy to try to figure out here.

And one thing I want to talk about is what approach you take to fab and maybe to roster construction in this final week because i i do think well i know it's a different week we all know it's it's a unique uh part of the season and and different rules apply so we'll talk about that but we'll also talk about some players to target and there's also a few big news items so uh that seems like the place to start so uh let's go there and we'll start with the news that just broke a little while here ago on Friday morning. Max Fried going to the IL with a blister. And that's going to end his regular season.

But only 14 starts this year for Fried. So I guess there's a couple of angles. Darius Vines, it would appear, would be the most likely candidate since he's being called up to fill Fried's spot. So there's the couple of angles uh darius vines that would appear would be the most likely candidate since he's being called up uh to fill freed spot so there's the short-term issue to talk about also just you know freed for next year how do you you look at him for fantasy in 2024 he's always been uh just a over performer i feel like in terms of terms of his K-BB and in terms of his projections. He's somebody that looks like he is an okay pitcher and keeps putting up great stats. um i think at this point you're just uh you're locking him down for like a like a 3-0 kind of era and uh he's beaten that for the last 250 innings but you know in terms of projections

i think that's the kind of pitcher he is 77 innings uh he had a 165 in 2019, 165 in 2021, 185 last year. I would set the over-under on innings next year at 150, 160, probably somewhere in there. Does he strike you as a huge risk for next year? The types of things that he's had range from blisters, which I don't care about, to more concerning arm injuries. So I don't know. I know some people would see that arm injury this year and be pretty much out on him next year. Yeah. Well, I would set the over-under pretty much the same place

as you did, probably around 150. But yeah, I think that you can look at this and say, okay, well, this is the second time that he's out although granted probably not for very long and conflate it with uh the the other issues that he's had and and you know like i i think about past conversations that i had with people about john carlos stanton and of course this is you know many years and many injuries ago so now i think it's you know fair to to consider him an injury risk, but you know, he, he got hit in the head that one time. He just, you know, all his injuries seem to be unrelated and some of them sort of fluky. So I kind of view this as analogous to that. Like there,

there's an injury history here, but maybe, maybe, maybe not so bad that I would significantly downgrade him for next year. And like you said, he is consistently an over-performer. He's somebody who can miss bats, but also has pretty consistently done a great job of limiting dangerous contact and pitches for a great team as well. Yeah. Trying to remember what the other one was.

It was a forearm strain, right? That bothers me um there is a link between forearm strains and tommy john but um you know what are you going to uh I think it's uh mediocre stuff um I don't know how uh he's put up some of the ERAs he's had, like a 2 ERA in AAA is weird to me, especially when you look at the 7K9 or even the 20% K percentage for Darius Vines in AAA. It's a really weird line all the way across because it's a 20% K percentage that comes with a 17.7% swing strike rate for Vines. the 17.7% swing strike rate provides. So I don't even understand how you put those two numbers together.

I, I, yeah, I'm not looking at it. I can go and check, but that sounds like somebody who has a very high end zone contact rate and gets no called strikes or maybe doesn't get a lot of foul balls, but I'm going gonna guess average zone contact um my guess would have been uh change up let's see yeah 26 change up so sometimes change

up guys don't turn whiffs into uh strikeouts because uh i think you know in like a two strike count sometimes it's easier to anticipate a changeup, right? And the reason the changeup is so good is because it's a deceptive pitch. It's something that needs to look like the fastball. And so if you can anticipate a changeup, I think you can at least put it in play. The fact that he's a changeup first guy does mean that it's possible that Stuff Plus is wrong on him. But it's not a great fastball anyway.

So I don't know. I would be careful with him, especially, let's see, where are they? I'm trying to figure out. Atlanta will be home against Chicago in Vines is next start. And I don't like that matchup because you know that Atlanta, the old park was called the launching pad. And there's actually a little bit of altitude in Atlanta.

So, you know, those parks, there have been different parks there, but they've all tended to hew towards hitters. Yeah, which, you know, to get back to Max Freed, that's been a nice thing about him with Atlanta is getting all those ground balls because that stadium is one of the higher altitude stadiums

in the majors. And just to get back to something, yes, he did have a forearm strain, but I had said two trips to the majors. And just to get back to something, yes, he did have a forearm strain, but I had said two trips to the aisle. This actually is the third one for him this year. So early in the season, he had a strained hamstring. So it's been a variety of issues

that have limited his starts for this season. So while we've got some other pitching-related news, Sandy Alcantara made a rehab start on Thursday night with AAA Jacksonville, and the numbers were great. Not that I necessarily put a whole lot of stock in rehab start stat lines, but if you're looking for encouragement for scoreless innings, just one hit, no walks,

four strikeouts, and I would think that probably lines Alcantara up for a start next week. And if he stays on schedule, that would put him up against the Mets at Citi Field. Yeah, weird thing that happened is he had a 96-mile-an-hour fastball. He sat 96, it looks like. Everything was down Velo-wise across the board. It's kind of hard to be like, oh, I'm worried about him at 96, but I would want to see slightly higher velo in his next uh start but

it's against the mets at home so and it's sandy alcantara i'm i'm starting him for that i'm just saying that uh it's a little bit weird uh that he didn't quite have all his velo back and then also a strange thing for me was uh he threw uh his curveball the most that he'd thrown it in any start ever nope that's all the way back to 2019 you have to go back to 2019 he had two starts where he threw it almost as much um but uh he threw his curveball a ton and he threw it super hard it was like 86 miles an hour and he went on the il i'm not saying these things are completely related but um you know a hard a hard breaking ball can be stressful so i don't know well you know given that the velo was down and this is a move.

We talked about this a little bit offline before recording the show, but you were saying, oh, why are the Marlins doing this? Oh, yeah, the Marlins are good and they're right in the wild card hunt very precariously right now. So do you think this is a situation where you really watch it over the weekend because I could see the Marlins going either way on this? Yeah think he doesn't look at it one more time if they lose the weekend you know yeah it's possible that he doesn't make that start um although i i have a feeling that given their history they're going to play hard all the way to the end. They haven't been

successful in the playoffs much recently. Did just want to make a reference real quick. Saw the baseball project last night and they were great and I just thought of them because we were just talking about curveballs and they have that song Uncle Charlie.

So that was, they did a good rendition of that last night and had a great time in Menlo park. Oh man. Well, I am jealous. Yeah. We were talking about that too,

a little bit. So I had an opportunity to see them a couple of weeks ago and, and wasn't able to go. So catch them if you can, but let's move on to some other pitcher news. And this one, yeah, is a little bit more of a head scratcher maybe than the Alcantara move.

Shea Bieber to be activated later on Friday and to make the Friday night start against the Orioles. So he had been on the 60-day IL with elbow inflammation. He has a pretty generous pitch count of around 80 pitches for this start. And if all goes well, that would line line Shane Bieber up to make his final start of the season at Detroit next week his view though was pretty good in his rehab start I mean pretty good for where he is now uh 91.7 uh that would put him back to where he basically was in June. He had been ramping up a little bit up to 92 right before he got hurt. I think to some extent, this is just, you know, you kind of, I think as a pitcher, you want to get back on the horse.

You know, if you've had a season where you've been hurt all year and you've been rehabbing, you want to get back on the horse no matter what the team situation is. I think he just wants to prove that he's healthy and can pitch again before the season ends. I would assume he makes that start. Let me see. Who is it going to be against? Next week it would probably be at the tigers.

Yeah. That's a great start. So, yeah, you know, if you saved, if you have the fab hammer this weekend, uh,

and beavers out there, uh, spend all five bucks on them. All right. Uh, another move. Yeah. Another move,

uh, that, um, we'll, we'll, you know, possibly happen over the weekend is Byron Buxton coming back. So what's your thought on that? You know, with Bieber and Buxton both out there, obviously that decision is probably a needs based one for your roster. But do you feel similarly optimistic about going going for broke to get Buxton if he been dropped. And he has been dropped in some of my leagues. Oh, yeah. I mean, you can't be holding on to Byron Buxton all year. Yeah, sure. With Royce Clayton hurt, I think there's a spot in the lineup.

The one thing that sucks is that at this point in the season, you really just want to get playing time, and you're not sure that he's, with all the load management they do, you're not sure that he's going to be in the lineup every night. Yeah, and I think that's a fair point. And I assume you meant Royce Lewis. Royce Lewis. Oh, Royce Clayton.

Royce Clayton, as far as I know, has not played in a while. Yeah, that's a blast from the past. He was the money ball, wasn't he? Royce Clayton as far as I know has not played in a while that's a blast from the past he was the money ball wasn't he Royce Clayton the money ball if my memory serves oh was he in it I think he was I remember him from

Giants he was the Giants shortstop for a while in the early 90s yeah I actually had a string of seasons in the 90s where I drafted him a lot. Yeah, for the steals. I don't think I did particularly well. All right, well, let's move on to some other injury news. Wilson Contreras is out for the season with wrist tendinitis

in terms of a replacement on the Cardinals. I don't know that there's really anything much here. I'm not even sure how the playing time will be split, but you've got Andrew Kisner, you've got Yvonne Herrera. But there are some catchers, I think some very good catchers that are out there at least in certainly a deeper, or I should rather let me roll that back, not deeper, but the shallower leagues like one catcher leagues

or maybe some really shallow two catcher leagues. So we'll go over there. But anything about Kisner or Herrera that's worth putting out there? I mean, Herrera looks better if you're looking at the batting average, but underneath the hood, it's kind of scary. I mean, 64% ground ball rate, 33% K rate,

571 BABIP. I love that. Yeah, it's just all small sample stuff. I think, you know, most likely he's just like any other catcher, going to hit 230, and you'll be lucky if you get a bomb out of him. All right. Well, when we do talk about some fantasy replacement catchers, we've got options both for power and for batting average, believe it or not.

So we'll get to those shortly. But just a couple other news items here. Martin Perez has really done a good job going to the bullpen. Very reminiscent for me of Boston. This is terrible. You know, the starter turned reliever turned starter. Oh, Nick Pavetta. It's late in the season when I can't remember Nick Pavetta's name.

But it seems very similar to that kind of trajectory. But Perez has been doing it more with ground balls than with swing and miss in the bullpen. A.257 ERA over 28 relief innings. So Bruce Bochy says maybe going back to the rotation. And I think Perez has a pretty nice matchup the way it lines up for him for next week. Frank Grass has him at the Angels. At the Angels.

And then maybe a two-step at the Angels and at Seattle. I'd be rooting for the one start week there. You want the Angels and you don't want Seattle? Yeah. I don't know. At Seattle is fine for me. The park is obviously a plus.

That is really weird because that's going to be the last day of the season So they either could have But I think they might actually pitch I think he'll pitch I think they'll need to win that game You're right Who knows where the Rangers or the Mariners I mean there's the outside chance

That they're I would say clinching Before that day or the Mariners would be safe. I mean, there's the outside chance that they're – I would say clinching before that day is a small chance. Being out of it completely before that day is a slightly bigger but also a small chance. I think the biggest chance is they need to win that day. They play that day. They put their lineup out there,

and they put Martin Perez on the bump to get into the postseason. Well, you know, I guess, as I just say, I'm rooting for the one-start week. I guess, you know, if you need the bulk, there's not a lot of risk in going that way. He does get that great matchup. Yeah, he's not going to screw up your ratios at this point in the season, probably.

He's got to be one of the better two starters. I would agree with that. All right, and then one final note here. It seems fitting on the last Fab Preview show of the year that we've got a prospect promotion, and this one, to me, comes as a big surprise. This is crazy. Junior Cavanero coming up for the raise.

I don't get it at all. Yeah, I don't either um so and skipping over triple a but putting up great numbers at double a montgomery it is the race so is there any reason to assume why uh uh it's so weird because he's a right hander and they have 10 right-handed capable bats and he's been playing third base twice as much as shortstop in uh at double a and they have like three or four guys who can play third base maybe more they've got a lot of third baseman. So he doesn't fit in as a righty or by position, really, unless they're going to play him at short. But if they're going to play him at short, they have a pretty capable guy there right now.

Basabe is like a sort of hit tool and defense kind of guy. And then they have Taylor Walls, who's a power, patience, and defense kind of guy. And then they have Taylor Walls, who's a power, patience, and defense kind of guy at short. So I don't know. I mean, maybe they'll stick him at short and just try to get offense there. But if they do that, is he eligible for the postseason even?

You know, I don't know. I'm assuming he was on the 40 man yeah but i have to admit i do not know that for certain i mean it's just a weird all right i guess oh so fangraph says he's going to split time at third with paredes and mead but paredes is also right hander is part of my point right so i'm what are you watching if you've got paredes i'm watching his what position he plays as much as how much he plays this weekend uh if he plays short stop uh i might be much more inclined to put a big bid on him because he's playing short stop they're just like hey we're look we're gonna do the offense lineup where it's paredes uh caminero low and uh and diaz across the infield most of the time

yeah no that makes a lot of sense unfortunately yeah we're getting this news here on friday and we have a few days to see how the rays handle this situation if he starts one time uh he has the skills to hit the ground running in terms of you know good contact skills uh you know hits the ball really hard. So there's a possibility he's good right from the beginning. He's projected by Steamer to be 10% better than the average the minute he steps foot on the field. So he's definitely interesting if he's going to play. All right, that's right.

Yeah, you cannot produce from the bench. So something to watch this weekend. And something else to think about this weekend, the final fab. And of course, we've already been alluding to that and talking about whether to bid at all on certain players or not. the Shane Bieber's of the world who are, you know, worth breaking the bank for regardless of what you've got in the bank. Just if you need to fill a need, you know, we've talked about a catcher or at any, any position, the approach that I took with the waiver wire column this week was usually what I do is I'll, you know, group some players together, give some bid recommendations for different sized leagues.

And I just thought, you know, last last week that doesn't make any sense. Bid recommendation, I mean, just spend what you got, obviously. But I think I put a premium on which team a player plays for because somebody who maybe has a great schedule, but they're playing for the Braves or the Dodgers, or the Twins for that matter, is there less of an incentive for that player to play every single day versus somebody who is on the Marlins or on the Blue Jays

or somebody that's just right on the cusp of the playoff picture? So does that seem like a sound approach to you? Do you have a different idea? I think so. I mean, I was just staring at Christian Yelich and just being like, why won't they put him on the IL? What's going on with him? And then I looked over at the standings page and I was like,

Oh, you know, they just not in a rush to get him back. Like it's, you know, they just, they probably want to get them in one or two games to get his timing back before the post season.

And that's about it. So I, I so i i you know i think team is is is good one thing i would say though is it's not always easy to print with a broad brush when it comes to contenders versus not if you think about it a bad team may want to see a bunch of different players and so as much as it's nice to just give someone a whole month, they may want to see what this guy does at second or if he can handle the glove at short. You know what I mean?

So there's a lot of different reasons why you may see funky lineups in the last week. And then there's always just like that day-to-day injury in the end, just when you're like five or seven games away from the end of the season, you know, something that you might have battled through or, you know, played through or tried to get back from, you just sort of, you're like, okay, it's done. You know? Like, this hamstring injury for Royce Clayton Lewis is interesting because, you know, his team is going to the playoffs. They want him back.

But even if the MRI does not show a strain, I can't imagine he plays much in the last week. Again, just like maybe a game or two right before. Maybe he plays like Friday and Saturday, takes Sunday off before the playoffs. So I can't imagine that Royce Lewis is worth hanging on to, even if he isn't hurt. Yeah, which is a shame because he's been very productive

for those who picked him up for the last few weeks. That makes a lot of sense, though. All right, well, let's get to some of those players to target on Fab. We'll start with the hitters. And I'm going to do here what I did in the column and lump them by position, not position by position, but infielders versus outfielders separate out catchers. And I especially separating out the catchers because we had the discussion

earlier about Wilson Contreras. And I think there's some interesting options in, in one catcher leagues, players that are likely to be out there. Logan Ohopi, Bo Naylor, Luis Camposano, Alejandro Kirk. And I think the latter two kind of defy the stereotype that you mentioned earlier, that these are guys that maybe aren't going to produce that much power, but could help you with average in the final week if you happen to be able to move up or down in that category. Yeah.

You know, the Angels. move up or down uh in that category yeah um you know the angels i like logan ohapi for uh for the power and like you said uh kirk and camposano for average um and so there's some you know depending on your needs uh there's some choices you can make there. You can also do something like look at the probables. If you're trying to decide between Kirk and Camposano, you can look at the probables. Toronto gets the Yankees and the Rays. They're going to see Michael King, Garrett Cole, and Luke Weaver. And so they're going to see Michael King, Garrett Cole, and Luke Weaver. And Carlos O'Donoghue, Clark Schmidt, and – wait.

No. He's going to see King, Cole, and Weaver. And then who do they see at the end of the week? Toronto, King, Cole, Weaver, and then they get the Rays. So Glassnell. Cucucci and Gossman. What? Yeah, I'm seeing Rio, Cucucci, and Gossman. No, that's their starters.

Or their starters. Yeah, so they're going to face Glassnell, Littell, and Bradley. I don't think that's a good week for Kirk. No, yeah, pretty brutal matchups. And San Diego, on the other hand uh gets uh the giants and the white socks so they're gonna get webb harrison mania um and then finish with a cease clevenger urana there's some there's some bad matchups there too but i i like the Camposano matchups better. Plus, Camposano has maybe a little bit more power than Kirk. Oh, for sure.

So I say Camposano is the best pickup I like in your grouping. All right. All right. And again, obviously it's categorical need. So if you do need power, Ohapi or Naylor would probably be the better choice than Camposano. The one thing about Naylor is he finishes with a five-game week. do need power oh happy or nailer would probably be the better choice uh than campisano but uh the one thing about nailer is he finishes with a five game week yeah that's that's it could be a decider right there uh what's kind of interesting though is that

um i think nailer also of this group probably plays the least not not by a huge margin but i mean oh happy plays every day and almost every day behind the plate which to me is just bizarre given how much time he missed this year i guess it's just like trying to get some plate appearances the angels are like head scratchers like every time i feel like every time we talk about it we're like and why are they doing this yep uh infield is kind of interesting and i've got a bunch of guys who for the most part are multi-position eligible so uh it's kind of you know covers a lot of potential needs there but let me just read you this this group that i

have that i included in the column uh well the first four names that I've got here, Willie Castro, Noel Vimarte, Oswald Peraza, Kevin Biggio. And none of that group is really going to be helpful if what you need is home runs or RBIs. But I think overall that those are some of your best options. And, you know, some of those players would be available in 15-teamers. Biggio on CBS has a 4% roster rate, and he's been hitting really well and hitting in the middle of the Blue Jays' order,

and again, kind of giving him a bonus checkmark for being on a team that's playing for something right now. Yeah, some tough matchups for them offensively, though. At least he's a left-hander because some of the tough matchups you'll see are right-handers. But does it matter that you have the platoon advantage when you're facing Cole and Glasnow? I don't know.

You're pushing that platoon advantage pretty hard there. I'm always just a little bit nervous about Willie Castro's playing time. Again, with Buxton possibly coming back, he might lose a start or two there. I would like Noel V. Marte more, except he's on the road

and has a five-game week. So I think my pick here could be Oswald Peraza. Interestingly enough, yeah, I mean, I think probably the least splashy, maybe, of that group. But, yeah, I think there's definitely a case to be made. And I think he can. I'll include Luke and Baker.

His approach at the plate is, he only has one homer, so it doesn't look like this way, but I think he's going for homers. So, like, I think he could totally hit you a homer in the last week. Double his output. Well, speaking of homers, another player that I did include, and I think he's only eligible at first base on all or most platforms, and that's Lucan Baker. And I included him there because Alec Burleson, he's out for the season. So I figure somebody's got to pick up that playing time slack. Baker did not start for the Cardinals on Thursday.

So I think that's one to watch over the weekend in deeper formats. It's so wild. He had a 20% strike rate in triple a this year looking baker with 33 homers um and he has a 34 percent uh strikeout rate in the major leagues uh it's not a big sample but the 34 actually is more in line with what baker used to do like he used to strike out more and so the projections all say he's going to strike out 30% of the time. So Baker had a wild ride. I think one of the things you just have to realize is that line that he put up, AAA, 180 WRC plus, so great. He's 26 years old. So that takes a lot of the wind out of those sails. It doesn't take all of it. But remember, there was a rule

of thumb that we had on the show that every year is worth about 25 points of WRC plus at level. And so he's about two years older. So, you know, he might even be a little bit more than two years older, but you take 50 points off of that still 130 WRC+. That would translate to, you know, you'd expect like a 110 or a 120. So when you look at ATC, they've got a 122 WRC+, or Luke and Baker going forward, with a 243 average and a 286 ISO. So ATC is buying what he's done. And, yeah, I mean, we're all talking about trying to get one homer. what he's done.

And yeah, I mean, we're all talking about trying to get one Homer and, you know, it's between Parraza and Baker, I think are your best opportunities there. All right. Well, I'm going to throw out one more name because I'm not real impressed with the

power potential of this group as a whole. Yeah. David Schneider. Now he's pretty much well, well rostered in deeper leagues, but 10 and 12 team leagues, good chance he's still out there, but he is slumping bad. Went 0 for 3 with three turn the tide this weekend and you need power at second or third base, is he viable as a 12-teamer? Yeah. Yeah. I think so.

He's just trying to pull everything in the air. And I think when you have such an obvious approach like that, you can be pitched to. When you have such an obvious approach like that, you can be pitched to. But I've seen people still try to pitch him high in the zone where he likes it. And people make mistakes. I think what you're just rooting for is someone makes a mistake to him in that final week, and he will be the kind of player that would take advantage of it more even than Peraza.. I think if you were going to, you know, have the likelihood of one Homer over the last week,

uh, among all these players, Snyder has the best likelihood. All right. And some outfielders. I have found that, uh, in a lot of weeks,

putting together the waiver column, it's not hard to find, uh, some promising. I think it's, I think that's an important, uh, observation because it is why uh i

fade outfielders generally yeah that makes sense i just try to cobble together my last two outfielders late in drafts i have bench outfielders i use the fab for outfielders i feel like they're the easiest thing i mean if you think about it you for infielders, you have to have a position, you have to fill a position and then, you know, for outfielders, you need just a player, you know, you don't usually have it separated out into left and center and right. So that alone means it's easier to find outfielders because you can find all shapes and sizes in that outfield.

Yeah. Well, so that said, it was a little tougher, I think, this week for whatever reason. Tommy Pham, who I wrote about the week before as well, and I think we talked about him last week. These all seem like they would be highly rostered. Yeah. I mean, he seems like an obvious add in 12-teamers and maybe 10-teamers. Evan Carter, who I think we also talked about last week,

he's out there still pretty widely unrostered. Fam, 49% in Yahoo. Carter, 10%. Wow. Yeah. Get on that. Although I guess Adulis Garcia came back, so they do now have four outfielders and a DH that um all would like to play sir

yeah and again they're very much in the the thick of things so um be interesting to see if Carter's playing time suffers at least he is left-handed at the plate yeah so fam to me is an obvious one carter i think maybe as a wait and see over the weekend how that that plays out michael brantley i think is an interesting case uh he's a wait and see too because he's missed a couple of games with the sore shoulder but i mean he's doing michaelantley things. He is just not swinging and missing. He's making a lot of contact, playing against righties when healthy in the Nastros lineup.

So there's a lot to like there for Michael Brantley, assuming he gets back in the lineup over the weekend. Where do you see adding him? I see nine plate appearances in the last week. Yeah, well, one, there was one game that was a left-handed opponent i don't know if that was also health related or not but the next two definitely were i think in a daily league you can do it but uh i see too much risk in a weekly league to just plug him in for a

week okay and then also in the category of playing time risk heston kerstad which i thought maybe wasn't as much of a risk because ryan mountcastle is on the il now but um sort of like with lucan baker where i thought okay kerstad's kind of uh coast is clear for him for playing time and then after mountcastle goes on the il it's aaron hicks that winds up in the lineup instead so So I'm not sure that a real playing time problem is solved. Your next name on this, I think, might be my favorite for deep leaguers. Obviously, Pham and Carter are pickups. Obviously, Pham is a pickup in any league he's available. Carter, there's that sort of –

I think Carter, Brantley, and Kirstead all have that playing time uh asterisk where in daily leagues i'm more excited about them than i am in weekly leagues this guy joe adele i think is a pickup i know he's striking out a lot uh he did improve upon that in the in in triple a this year uh but for a, I don't think you care as much. Yes, striking out means that he can't hit the homer and that at bat. But, you know, I put him up there with David Schneider as the most likely name that we've come up with today that could hit a homer.

And he could, in fact, hit two. I mean, if we're talking about all or nothing, that's the deal with Joe Adele. So I think he's a pickup. I think they're going to play him every day, and I think he's a pickup. All right. Well, let's head on over to the pitchers,

and this was a really tough one for me you know i this was kind of light in the column compared to how it usually is it's because i don't really trust any of the the problems are lined up for two starts although you made an interesting case for martin perez i did make a case for results and maybe being a two-star pitcher and then looking at fan graphs this morning and this was I filed this column last night so uh looking at this morning they've got the Tigers going six man yeah I still think you know and again you know the Tigers with nothing really to play for right now but they've got got the Royals and Guardians, who I consider to be favorable matchups for pitchers.

Olsen definitely gets the Royals, and so does Sawyer Gibson Long. What about somebody like Alec Marsh, who had 125 innings in 2022, and this year has 111 125 or so so i think they really do want him to get innings you know to push those innings um and uh he's lined up for at detroit yankees at home um that's a pretty good one and i actually think they might pitch him so I think man would you take Marsh over would you take Marsh over Perez no I wouldn't no

no because I yeah I mean Perez gets the Angels I just love that matchup yeah and I think I mean it depends too I mean, Perez gets the Angels. I just love that matchup. Yeah. I mean, it depends, too. I mean, I suppose if ratios really didn't matter, maybe. I like Marsh's strikeout rate. But I can't give him that Perez. I think there's something there for Marsh.

If you cover up the home run rate, we're talking about a 25% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate. That's only league average K-BB, but league average K-BB for the Royals with those matchups? I could dig it. I think the projections are maybe wrong on him. They all have him with a

5 ERA. Okay, I'll take Perez over him, but I want to put Marsh out there. You're looking for two starters. I think he might actually make that second start because they want those innings. Kenta Maeda is listed as a two-starter. The second one is at Colorado, and they'll have clinched.

So I can't imagine he makes that start. I don't even know if Joe Ryan makes that start. I can't imagine he makes that start. I don't even know if Joe Ryan makes that start. I wonder if they just roll out the rookies for that Colorado series. Yeah. Would seem quite likely.

How about Paul Blackburn? This is somebody for much of the season I've liked for two starts. He starts with the Twins. He would finish at the Angels. But they're both away from home. I don't know, man. I might put Blackburn behind Marsh.

Wow. I definitely put Blackburn behind Perez. Do you think he even makes that second start? I'm not sure he does. And I like him a lot better at home. Makes sense. Alright, so I'll go Perez, Blackburn, Marsh

for the two starters so far. Who else have we got? Well, maybe Adrian Hauser. But again, I don't know if... I mean, I think if he makes that final play of the season starts or something. It's like the two innings or something. Against the Cubs.

Exactly. Yeah, I think that'll be what they they do hunter green uh probably owned and all but if you've if you're in like a 10 team for some reason he's out there um i like that i think they they might actually need to pitch him all the way through and even even if they're out on the last day he might pitch because he needs to build up his innings too um so and plus i think cincinnati will kind of want to just have the best record they could have this year you know what i mean i think they'll just play play to the end absolutely yeah so that's a great call i don't know like you said how many leagues he'll be available but 10 teamer that's i think that's that's a solid move right there um yeah i don't really see too much else in terms of two start pitchers

but yeah it's like at colorado at san francisco and i don't know if he makes that last start because i have pepio in the playoff rotation that's what i was thinking too you know and so maybe he's a one-star yeah that's that's not a good matchup that's not what you want this is this is always so rough right it's like that you're playing for something this last week and these are the things you have where do you put Zach Thompson at Milwaukee home against Cincinnati I think he could pitch for what I was saying with Marsh and stuff. They want him to be a starter next year, so he has to have the innings. So I think he could pitch those two games. My question is, is he much better than Martin Perez,

and aren't those matchups worse at Milwaukee, Cincinnati, versus Martin Perez at Anahaheim at Seattle. Seattle, yeah. I think Perez has the better matchups. I just like Perez better than Zach Thompson. Maybe less likely. Well, maybe likely. Yeah, okay.

Perez, Thompson, Blackburn for me. With Green, obviously obviously at the top and Nola's not going to make that last start pretty sure of that Aaron Nola's line up for two George Kirby's line up for two he could need to pitch them into the postseason um but he's not available so and I'm starting Kirby one start, two starts. So he's a guy I start pretty much every week. Yeah, exactly. All right.

Well, I think that covers it for starting pitchers, like I say. We talked about him last week. Because I think it looked like he would make two starts. He needs the innings. But he's also running out of innings. I don't know. The last start would be at Kansas City. I mean, I would have him ahead of Martin Perez

if I was sure he was making that second start. He might. Yeah. Yeah, I just would think that the running out of innings thing would outweigh the building up innings. Let's see. I mean, because it is pretty comical, right? Like last year he had 51.

He's already at 94. They could shut him down in eight months. I really feel like that could happen. And if he does start that game, I think that could be two innings or so. They're not playing for anything. So they could go bullpen game. Man, he went seven in his last. I just, I think, I know we talked about this,

but I think he's an injury risk for next year. All right. Well, I think that, I think it's just no matter what your situation, it's going to be tough setting a rotation this week. And then in terms of bullpen, in the column, I put out a list of some widely, well, I shouldn't say widely, but available starters in 12-team leagues. And it's kind of the usual group that we've talked about the last several weeks. Tanner Scott, Trevor May.

Who's the closer in Kansas City I don't think there is one I am rostering Carlos Hernandez in DVR's Maki League but you know it's the Royals and if you're splitting saves multiple ways it's just not good yeah

well the team I wonder about right now is the Mets because we now know that Edwin Diaz is definitely not coming back so does that make Adam Adovino somebody to target yeah I guess yeah so I like Adam Adovino I think James MacArthur uh high stuff pitcher who has gotten a save in the last week doesn't really have the strikeout or the fastball velocity or the ERA of a closer right now. But for some reason, the Royals don't trust Carlos Hernandez fully. So I just wanted to put James MacArthur on people's

radar. His underlying numbers are much better than his ERA. Maybe Chris Martin is someone people should know about because... But didn't Kenley just have... It was COVID IL. Yeah, so he's going to be back. He's not cleared yet, but he's going to be back this last week. And then, but he's going to be back this last week and then they're going to want to

pitch him. Right. Probably. But Martin is worth thinking about, I guess. Yeah, I think so. I mean,

if we're talking about Adam out of vino and you're talking about somebody who maybe gets one save, right. I mean, that's all we're talking about here. Yeah. Then, then Martin would, I think fall in that same category i have two dollars left in al labor i need two pictures so i have two long one dollar strings any thoughts on on who you're going to target

with those two dollars uh i'm not going to tell. Would you rather not say? I know there's people listening. And in fact, I'm pretty sure Colton and the Wolfman listen because at least they do when they're prepping for the draft. And I'm battling them for third place. have 83 points i have 82 and a half right now and uh jesse uh from baseball perspectives has 84 points so there's a almost a three-way tie for second place uh jason colletti is going to win AL Labor this year. So that's fun for him.

Congratulations to him. Yeah, congratulations to Jason. Well, that's good. We wish you all the best of luck with whatever it is you are playing for in this final week. I mispronounced Jason's last name. Sorry, Jason. I just always want to put that extra E on the end.

Oh, man. And happy birthday to him, too. Today? No. I think it was a couple days ago, but I just wanted to say happy birthday to him. All right. Well, happy birthday to Jason Collette. And before we wind up this last fab preview show, just a reminder, you can reach both Eno and I on Twitter or X or whatever you'd like to

call it. Eno is at Eno Saris. I am at Al Melchior BB. And just a final note here to send you off that you can get a subscription for The Athletic for just $1 a month for the first year for that deal where you can get all of Eno's columns and everything else that comes along with The Athletic. Go to theathletic.com slash rates and barrels and get yourself a great deal on The Athletic. So again, good luck to everybody out there. And thank you so much for tuning in

for our fab previews every week or whatever weeks you did tune in for this season. And just a reminder, we will be back for a Friday show next week, you know, and I, so we hope to see you there. So, uh, till then everybody,

uh, take care and, uh, good luck to you in the final week. Thanks for listening. Thank you.