Rates & Barrels - The Last Weekend, Atlanta's surprising NL East win, and expecting an amazing White Sox-Astros series

Episode Date: October 1, 2021

Eno, Britt and DVR discuss the state of the final playoff spots entering the last weekend of the regular season, Seattle’s bid to bump an AL East team out of the Postseason, an Atlanta team that might be slightly underrated heading to the playoffs, and an outstanding first-round matchup in the ALDS with the White Sox and Astros.  Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels presented by Topps. Check out Topps Project 70 celebrating 70 years of Topps baseball cards. It is Friday, October 1st. Derek Van Ryper, Ido Saris, Bridger Oli, all here with you on this Friday, the last Friday of the regular season. And to be honest, it felt a little cold snap in the air when I went outside

to take Hazel out this morning. It actually felt like fall for the very first time for me in California. It felt like the seasons actually were changing just a little bit, but I'm not going to talk about the weather ever again because it'll just piss everybody off.

On this episode, we're going to talk about the still undecided AL wildcard race. Most of the playoff field is set. Most of the matchups are set, but we still have some things to look at with the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the Blue Jays this weekend. And of course, the NL West might come down to the final days depending on how things play out with the Giants and Dodgers matchups this weekend. Giants hosting the Padres, Dodgers hosting the Brewers. We'll get into the teams that are in, some strengths, some weaknesses, and a few other topics along the way. Yes, we will talk about Devin Williams punching a wall,

because that is actually a story that we have to talk about. But we begin with the Yankees. They have the magic number down to one to get the first wild card in the AL. So it would take a collapse of epic proportions for the Yankees to fail to clinch that wild card. Three at home against Tampa Bay to close it out. And the Rays are locked in to their position as the best record in the American League. So they will have home field throughout the AL portion of the playoffs. Can we see a collapse?

We talked about team entropy last week. Is this Yankees team going to disappoint us and actually just do their job? Or do you think they'll actually leave the door open to possibly whiff on what are extremely high playoff odds entering the weekend? Now, who do they got next? They go to Tampa Bay, right? They play the Rays. You know, I think they make it in because I would be a little more swayed, guys. But after watching Boston lose two of three to the Orioles,

and then Toronto only being able to win one of those games at home, I think this is the Yankees. I don't think we see an epic collapse. What are the Rays really playing for these last couple of days? Anything? I think that's a great point because, you know, Shane Bass and Drew Rasmussen could have gone this weekend, right? Those are two good pitchers that the Rays have.

They could use them this weekend. I don't think they will. Why would you throw Shane Bass against the Yankees when you might get the Yankees in the division series and you could throw Shane Baz, who they've never seen before, at them in the division series? So I would expect that Shane Baz does not pitch, Drew Rasmussen does not pitch, and that they patch together something. They don't care if they lose a couple of games. They've clinched home field. They've clinched the playoffs. They don't want to show the Yankees anything that they've got, any tricks they have up their sleeves. So I think they, in essence, will roll over. I mean, they'll win one or two, but there's no way that they're going to win all three and sweep the Yankees out of the playoffs, I don't think.

It's going to be Nestor Cortez and Jordan Montgomery going on Friday and Saturday for the Yankees. I think we're going to see a little bit of Luis Severino on Sunday. Are there any starters announced for the race? Probably not. It's TBD, TBD, and TBD. I mean, previously, the order was going to be McClanahan, Shane Boz, and Michael Waka. They could let Waka go on Sunday, potentially. Just throw Waka to the Wolves.

Will he even make the playoff roster? Yeah, right? There you go. It's just Johnny walk into the wolves. Like, will he even make the playoff roster? Yeah. Right. There you go. It's just Johnny, Johnny whole staff for Tampa Bay. The whole, the whole series.

I feel like Derek, we forgot, we forgot to tell the people guys what our plans are for the playoffs, what we're doing here. Now that it's October. On this show. Yeah. So the big news,

of course, if you don't stick around to the end of episodes, which is actually a good number of people. Bad assumption on my part. Beginning Tuesday at 1130 Eastern. Unless there's a game 163. Unless there's a game 163, we will have live streams of this podcast. So follow Rates and Barrels on YouTube.

We'll, of course, tweet out the links when that becomes available. But we're going to break down everything on a daily basis every weekday, maybe occasionally on weekends, depending on what happens with the schedule, when and where there's drama. We will try and be there to discuss it, but be sure to check us out on YouTube. We'll have the pod version of it. You make it sound like we're going to be in the raincoats in front of the storm.

Are we not going to be in front of the storm in the raincoats? No, I'm not going to do that. Wait a second. I bought a new raincoat. All right. You're our on-field reporter. Do I even need a raincoat out here?

Hurricane winds going behind you. Just as an aside, it's like a ridiculous thing that we want. Do we want that from our news? When I see that on the news, it's like, be safe. Get out of there. No, you see an umbrella getting mangled, khakis being drenched by torrential downpours and you're like, we know

it's raining. You can just tell us that. Show us the graphic. Send a drone out there or something. Show us the map with the big red blob on it. We can picture what that amount of water might look like. But yes, check out Rates and Barrels on YouTube live throughout the playoffs. 11.30 a.m. Eastern, 8.30 a.m. Pacific.

If you're in Central or Mountain, convert accordingly. The Red Sox are up a game on Toronto for the second wildcard spot right now. You said there's... With the Mariners, right? Yeah, the Mariners are still hanging around too. Come on. Is this really going to happen? Are the Red Sox really going to give this away?

The Mariners are sold out for the weekend. They announced that they sold 40,000 tickets for each night against a 47,000 capacity. I don't know i was watching that game last night i was wondering if the a's fans the a's players felt at all jealous because uh it was loud and uh boisterous and i think there's you know there's some research on this i think that there is a tangible effect from fans. I mean, you know, Sam Miller had a great piece about it in ESPN about how they can actually move like the, they can, they can change

the, they can heat up the stadium for one, like they can improve offense by heating up the stadium. 45,000 warm bodies actually warms up an area. Um, and, uh, and then just generally, you know, just having all these people screaming every time you do something good is going to make you feel good. So I could see it. You know, it just feels like the Sox are backing into this and the Mariners have, you know, all the momentum. But momentum is also the name of tonight's starting pitcher.

Was that a Curt Schilling quote? So who are the starting pitchers tonight in the Mariners and Sox games? You got Marco Gonzalez on the mound for Seattle and it's Jose Suarez going for the Angels. Chris Flexen goes on Saturday. These are not...

They're lined up. These are the guys that they would want to have there and the Angels, Nootani this weekend. Jonathan Diaz, I think, is, no Otani this weekend. Uh, Jonathan Diaz, I think is their starter on Saturday or the read. Detmers would go on Sunday.

So the edge clearly goes to Seattle just from a pitching standpoint. I mean, it looks like a sweep. Angels offense has been atrocious for months now. Yeah. No trout, no Rendon. They have been a complete mess.

Otani has been amazing, but they've got nothing else. So I think this is a great setup for Seattle to really possibly steal the second wildcard. It's been earned, but it just, it's surprising to me that it's even available to them. It's amazing.

I mean, can I be a fan for a second? I don't know about you guys. I'm pulling for Seattle. I think if you look at like the graphs right now, like it's so awkward to admit something like that. We're not supposed to pull for anybody, but it's a good story. I think it's amazing.

I mean, the Red Sox have been kind of backsliding, right? They just lost 2-3 to the Orioles. Seattle, I think I saw some stat over the last month or maybe even further back. Seattle's been the best team in the majors. This isn't like a two-week hot stretch, right? This has been a pretty prolonged period of them playing really well also it's cool because they've been so bad for so long like let's see how it'll have a wild card um they wouldn't host it obviously but hey listen i covered the 2019 nationals which two years ago today a ball went

through this is derrick probably need to put your earmuffs on as a Brewers fan. Is this the Grissom mistake? Yeah, it goes through his legs. And all of a sudden, the Nationals win, steal the wild card game, and win the World Series. So, you know, Derek, you're good now. I think you're good. Anything can happen. And I just love that Seattle's going with the Ted Lasso believe signs everywhere.

I love that they become this underdog. The Red Sox arrived earlier than expected. They're going to be good for a while. If you're a Red Sox fan, it's hard to feel that bad about a team that really was projected to top out what 80 wins, 85 wins. It's really hard to feel bad about the season that they've had,

even if they can't see it all the way through. I would love for Seattle to be able to pull this off. It's what makes sports so great. They have absolutely no business doing this, as Derek said, and they still might do it. Yeah, I just think about the caliber of most playoff rotations,

not all, is just at a level above what the Mariners currently have. I think this is an organization that has a bright long-term future. But you get through the wildcard game, how are they going to really stack up to the other big hitters in the AM? Also, let's just talk about this weekend.

For example, tonight, Marco Gonzalez is a fine pitcher, and the Mariners are bad, but he's favored by Fangraphs at a 55-56% level. But Eduardo Rodriguez against Josh Rogers is favored at a 66% level. So, you know, all things equal. Like, the Red Sox are a better team now. So it could still work out that they get through. Maybe it's set up for 163.

Maybe they both sweep. How are the, how are the nationals doing? I mean, they're going to, they're running around running out Josh Rogers. And is, is Josiah Gray going to go this weekend?

I don't know. I don't think I've seen all their probables, but I mean, listen, I think the issue with the Red Sox is they just haven't been playing well. Like I said, they lost two, three,

the Orioles and they're down what their two best bullpen arms. So even if they make it to a wild card game, it's not set up super well though as you guys said seattle has some issues like there are a lot of teams i was looking today in the al outside of tampa have issues right like houston's got two pitchers that they can really rely on mccullers and um valdez pretty much right so you look at the white socks and they haven't been playing that well they clinched the division a while ago but they haven't been playing that well. They, they clinched the division a while ago, but they haven't been playing their best baseball by any means. So outside of Tampa Bay, you look at the AL and you look at teams like Seattle and Boston and the

Yankees, and it's kind of wide open, isn't it? If somebody can manage to knock off Tampa Bay, we could have like an absolute like March madness. Everyone's brackets busted, total chaos in the end. I don't even think Tampa's bullpen looks as good as it did last year. I know the numbers are still there, but I'm not sure that it

looks the same. I just don't see that Fairbanks and Anderson combo there this year. I think your general point, your larger point is right. I think there's not really a favorite in these playoffs. I mean, the Dodgers could lose a wildcard game, and then everyone's been sort of second-guessing the Giants all year on the NL side, right? And the Brewers, I guess this is where we can talk about losing Devin Williams. I mean, I would have thought the Brewers were a favorite on the National League side.

Especially given their great front three starters and then the bullpen. But the bullpen's taken a hit. The offense hasn't been there for them this month. And they've been looking pretty ordinary. Just losing a bunch of games to the Cardinals. I guess everybody's been doing that but losing devin williams to a drunken uh celebration uh punching wall accident is uh not a good omen perhaps and it does it does celebration incident i don't know that was a happy wall punch

right right yeah i don't think that really exists too much to drink he did there was some picture of him almost in like the edward 40 hands and i have to tell you nothing good has happened to me when i did edward 40 hands so nothing ever happened to anybody 40 hands no No. No. Why is that even an idea? I don't even know why. Because people have duct tape and beer and 40s and are dumb. And Johnny Depp was amazing with scissor hands and

someone got drunk watching that movie 20 years ago. Oh, man. That's so bad. Here's the thing about the Devin Williams injury. It's a big one. A big part of the Brewers' strength is being able to basically end a game after the sixth inning because you can mix and match your other relievers.

They have a good bullpen. And then go Williams, Hayter in the eighth and ninth. Now you have to take some guys like Hunter Strickland, like Jake Cousins if he's healthy, like Brad Boxberger, and push them into that eighth inning role. And you have to rely on younger guys like Aaron Ashby for big outs, more than you would have otherwise. The bigger concern for me with the Brewers is the offense. It even is the health of Willie Adames. That quad is still a bit of a problem for him. He's obviously a key part of what they've done offensively when their offense has been able to hit at various points during the

summer. Yelich still hasn't come back around. He doesn't have 10 homers. He has nine homers. I know. So weird. I don't understand what's wrong here. I continue to think it's a health-related problem, playing through some kind of injury like the back or something,

but I don't have a clear answer. I think if the Brewers are going to actually win in the postseason, it's because the offense showed up enough. The pitching is going to be fine even without Williams. I think they have enough depth relievers to mix and match and get away with it. I really do. Didn't you have some stat about – You had a tweet about the worst offenses that have won at all or something.

You had a tweet where you laid out the WRC plus of the winning team. Right, because the Brewers offense is a below average offense. And it's weird to see a well below average offense win the World Series. And the last team to have an offense like this was the 95 Braves. They had a 92 WRC plus, and that was the Glavin Maddox and Smoltz Braves, which if you look at Burns and Woodruff and Peralta, the shoe sort of fits like they've built a team.

It's very similar. The offense is okay when it's not good. Postseason baseball is weird. You could have a crappy offense all year and random guys show up. And that's sort of the thing that they need to swing in their favor. It seems to happen, yeah. Because their star is not playing at all.

I'm not saying Colton Wong's been bad this year, but I'm just saying Colton Wong dominates the series. Right, yeah. Luis Urias hits four homers in a five-game series or something. These are not impossible things. These are not bad players, but they need these okay players,

these good players to like find another level to, to, to beat some of these teams that are out there, especially if they're up against like the Dodgers or giants, I think for a series, they're going to need, they're going to need some unlikely heroes or some guys to step up a little bit.

That happens though. That happens all the time. I feel like every year we're writing about like a Randy or Rosa Raina, right? Like someone having their like coming out party, the Cardinals, I feel like are always famous for like having some random dude. No one's heard of.

Well, some gets these big hits, so it's not out of the realm. I forgot. Paul DeJong is going to win the wild card game for them. Yeah, exactly. And you're like,

what, how did this happen? But you look at the giants and that's basically the giants all year. Right? Like they got Scott Casimir starting tonight against Madison Bumgarner, trying to win the NL West, like just how you drew it up. Right.

Like exactly how we all drew it up. You know, I did forget that the Brewers have Hunter Strickland, which means they now have two pitchers who have punched walls on their. Oh, that's right. Awesome. So they got that going for them,

which is nice. And they could go up against the Braves and we could get three in the same room. Amazing. Someone get Elias. That's got to be some kind of right. Well, we should talk about... That's a Jason Stark stat if you've ever heard one.

It really is. We should talk about Atlanta for a moment because they're an improbable playoff team just because of, again, Marcelo Zuna suspended or unavailable for his own reasons. I mean, domestic violence case for him. So who knows when he'll be back in the future.

I actually don't care when he comes back. But Acuna got hurt. That's a huge one. They had long stretches without some of their best pitchers this year. They had the active trade deadline, and they ended up cobbling together a roster that was good enough. They took advantage of the Mets slide and actually won the division, which is pretty amazing. And I think they seem like a team people are sleeping on a little bit on the NL side, especially.

I mean, the two teams I think no one really wants to talk about in the postseason, in the national conversation, are Atlanta and the White Sox. I don't know why people don't want to talk about the White Sox. They're fun as hell. But Atlanta, they look kind of dangerous to me on paper. They have a pretty well-balanced offense. Austin Riley has stepped up.

Freddie Freeman can still hit an MVP level. Even with the losses they've had, that is an above-average lineup. Their big three in their rotation is good, and they've got an A bullpen that's at least solid. So I look at Atlanta, and I see a team that can actually match up just fine, especially with a Brewers team struggling to score runs,

but probably with even the other big teams in the NL. So am I missing something with Atlanta? Is there a big flaw with this team that I'm overlooking? Yes, they never win in the playoffs. The history. You know, they never get past the first round. Yeah, it's been, I don't know how long.

You would have to look it up. But I think that makes people hesitant, right? Like there's been better Braves teams that have fallen early. if you're a braves fan you're just like oh god i've seen this script before i can't get excited although eventually not to go back to the nationals but that narrative has to change eventually and you have to win a playoff series and once they get that like proverbial monkey off their back could they all of a sudden be like cool let's just have fun and play no one expects us to win so i agree with. They could be a dangerous team if they get out of that first round for that reason. I wish more people were talking about some of the stuff they're doing.

Like Dancy Swanson, I feel like I didn't realize he was as good as he is. You watch this team and you watch a team that lost really, Acuna is probably a top five player in baseball, right? At this point, we can probably agree. He's in the conversation around there. For sure. To lose a guy like that and to still be able to win a division, yes, it was a bad division. Yes, the Mets collapse helped.

But you're right. I mean, they're a team that doesn't have too many obvious flaws. And I've kind of stopped predicting the playoffs because it really just comes down to whatever team

is going to be the hottest team for two and a half, three weeks. Oh, yeah. So personal news. I'm going to be making picks, I think, on the game level all postseason for the betting side. So watch me go down in flames. We're going to do that here next week, too, so we can all tease each other. Oh, God. But I guess the one thing I would say is that their bullpen is a little suspect.

It's like the kind of bullpen I could see working through 162. But then when you get to the playoffs and your back end is Will Smith, Luke Jackson, and Tyler Matzek. I mean, maybe. Matzek's been pretty lights out, but he also walks five per nine. Luke Jackson has been way better than his expected numbers. And Will Smith is down to 92.5, which is below average velocity for a closer, for a late-inning reliever. So I could see some better teams being able to hit that bullpen. Well, I think it's going to come down to how effective the starters are the third time through.

I mean, you get Morton, Freed, Ian Anderson, Waskery. Yeah, because it's also not the deepest bullpen. So it's like, yeah, if you're asking those guys to do multiple innings or do like four outs and five outs, then they're going to get stretched and it's going to get, it could get ugly. But yeah, a soft underbelly. Yeah, they do have the lineup to cover for it though,

a little bit, some of their mistakes. Yeah, they can score. They can score for sure. Yeah, I think they're at least six deep in the lineup, even without Acuna, and totally agree. Top five guy, no question, in terms of real value, beyond fantasy, he's a 1-1 guy. But even in real baseball, it's obviously not that far behind.

But Freeman, Riley, Albies, Swanson, Adam Duvall at least provides power. Travis Darnot is an above-average hitting catcher. And you go with guys like Eddie Rosario, Jock Peterson, Jorge Soler. They're not bad players either. I think that's a scary thing about this Atlanta team. There might not be that many easy at-bats for opposing pitching staffs,

which is saying a lot about the work they did to patch up the holes on this roster. But since people don't seem to want to talk about the White Sox, why don't we talk about the White Sox? I think they've got one problem that they can solve in a five-game series, and I'm curious to see how they solve it in a seven-game series. The big problem is they've got to get to the Astros to even make it to the LCS, but it's going to be a fun matchup. The White Sox pitching, I think, is perfectly fine for a five-game series. You have

issues with Carlos Rodon's health right now. Five-game series lets you work around that. You can tandem start him with Michael Kopech if you want to. I think that's a viable solution. If Rodon gives you two or three, Kopech gives you three, you get five or six combined from those guys. They've got enough short relief depth where they can cobble it together. This is a bullpen I think people are maybe overlooking a little bit in terms of its quality, perhaps one of the best all-around bullpens in the postseason. Oh, it's nasty. It's so nasty.

They've got some of the top arms in baseball in that bullpen. If this gets to the bullpen, Houston's in trouble because Houston, in my mind, only has two or three guys they really trust in that bullpen. Because Houston, in my mind, only has two or three guys they really trust in that bullpen. So if this becomes a series of bullpens, Chicago, to me, has the total advantage here. Oh my god. Dude, the Crotchet Rocket, Hendricks, Kimbrell. Aaron Bummer is awesome.

He's got this awesome sinker. Dude, he has a 91% ground ball rate in the last month. Michael Kopech and then Reynaldo Lopez is going to be the middle innings guy. And, you know, he's up to 97. Yeah, I think it's really difficult. One of the most difficult things I think sometimes is to see how good a team really is in a bad division. Yep. see how good a team really is in a bad division. Yep.

Because you're like, well, they put up these great numbers, but they're playing the Royals and the Tigers. And like, you know, like it's, it's pretty easy sledding for them. But when I look at that bullpen,

I'm like, oh man, like this is a legit ass team. Like this is a seriously, this is a, this is a contender. And in fact, I think, you know, chalk might be the White Sox in the AL

because you've got everything you need in terms of standout starters, a rock-solid bullpen, and then the lineup is really good, right? I guess the lineup is where you kind of, okay, you know, Robert and Eloy, they can chase, right? I guess you can kind of pitch to them. They're really right-handed heavy too, aren't they? Righty heavy. Yeah. So a righty heavy pitching staff could maybe chew up a little bit.

But Yasmany Grandal has been on fire. I was tweeting about this, I don't know, a couple days ago. And he has put together really the best slash line of his career. And he's one of those guys that always is a tough at bat, very patient hitter. But you think about Jose Abreu. This is an interesting aside on Grandal. So he has the best chase rate of his career this year and like the best walk rate.

And like, you know, so I'd wanted to talk to him about that. And I talked to some people around the team about it because he, he did, he, he, he said he had nothing for me.

But what it turns out is his knee was hurt and he didn't have the power to really turn on stuff. So he was just like, all right, the best thing I can do for this team is just take a bunch of walks. And so then he came back and his knee was healthy. And he's combining this sort of best approach of his career with better health. I think that's that's a good recipe. But it's interesting that it was born of an injury. best approach of his career with better health. I think that's a good recipe. But it's interesting that it was born of an injury. Yeah, that's a really cool tidbit, Eno.

He said he had nothing for you, but Eno said, you know what? I got something for you. I could still salute this one out. But this is a little bit like the Atlanta lineup, top to bottom, really strong because you've got Abreu kind of in that Freddie Freeman role. You've got Grandal and Robertbert and eloy jimenez being healthy tim anderson should have been mentioned earlier in that list who is the lefty then is moncada switchy switcher uh no yeah yeah moncada's a switch hitter and vaughn i guess are those their primary lefties yeah grandal switch hit grandal switch hits. Grandal switch. Okay.

Yeah, they're really right-handed heavy. Although Tony La Russa probably factors into some game, some decision at some stretch during this series, right? Don't you just kind of know something's coming? He just, what's going to happen, if they do well, he's going to get more credit than he deserves, which is just awful.

If he makes a catastrophic mistake, I feel bad in the sense that I like the core of this team, but I'll be happy that he will get the criticism that he deserves. Really torn on this one. I kind of wanted to do something stupid. What's his reputation? His reputation is to take

the starting pitchers out early right so i guess it would be like he took a starting pitcher out too early but i just don't see this bullpen kind of blowing it for him i think this team is kind of made for him you know it really is he can push the buttons and nothing bad's gonna happen yeah i mean like what's he what's he gonna do take somebody out too early and put michael kopeck in and kopeck's gonna blow it i mean it's possible kopeck had some stumbles down the stretch but kopeck is also probably I mean, like, what's he going to do? Take somebody out too early and put Michael Kopech in and Kopech's going to blow it? I mean, it's possible. Kopech had some stumbles down the stretch.

But Kopech is also probably going to be blowing 100 in the playoffs. Yeah, nobody second guesses that. Like, going to that bullpen, no one's going to guess. Exactly, yeah. Why'd you put Kopech in? Why'd you put the guy in that throws 100? Yeah, how dare you put in, like, how dare you use two of the league's top, like,

top relievers in big moments in the playoffs. So I'll be at that series at least early on the first two in Houston. So that's going to be a really fun series. I'm really looking forward to watching both of those teams. I think that might go five. I think that might, that has a chance to be a really, really good series. Yeah. And I think, I think I might be picking, I'm writing my bold predictions right now.

And I think I might be predicting the bold, writing my bold predictions right now. And I think I might be predicting the... Bold predicting the Astros to win it all. I'm telling you, people are creeping on them. That first series is going to be huge. I think that first series actually, in some ways, might be the series in the AL. Well, what's interesting about the Astros is they're going to probably put Zach Granke in the bullpen, right?

At least for that first playoff series. So he kind of has a little X factory to me. Like, what if he's like just dominant out of the bullpen because he throws all the crazy different speeds? Right. He will be a weird guy to come in. Like, if he came out after McCullers, you're like, you're up for 97. And then in comes this finesse, like power change weirdo, you know,

who also, he's just a strange guy. Just on, he said the neck, the neck is fine. And we were talking a little bit about the strikeout rate and that he said his strikeout rate was down this year, partially due to some, just some randomness and then partially due to some just some randomness and then partially uh due to actually intention um he said that the plan for him this year was to uh be the innings guy and so there was a there was like a focus on kind of eating up innings uh being the guy that that saved the bullpen going deep into games and not necessarily uh trying to waste a ton of pitches, trying to

strike everybody out. If that was the plan, it mostly worked. He was the horse for them. It worked out okay. It is nerve-wracking to look at a 6K9 on Greinke and the age and just be like,

ooh. It is bizarre. I think something Britt mentioned earlier, the trust level in the rotation, I think it runs deeper than McCullers and Valdez. I think with Garcia, it's just a matter of not letting him face the opposing lineup a third time. His third time through the order splits are brutal. His ERA, I think, is over six.

Luis Garcia? Yeah. Really? Yeah, he's got a deep arsenal. Because he has so many pitches. Yeah. I was really surprised by that. Maybe he loses Velo or something.

They may have to give him a quicker hook in the postseason than they would in the regular season. But then they have Christian Javier. He's going to be a great guy to soak up innings in the middle. You got Javier. You got Odorizzi for some bulk there. And Jose Urquidy is healthy too. I think that's sort of an X factor for them. Is Jose Urquidy being healthy, too. I think that's sort of kind of an X factor for them, is Jose Urquidy being healthy and effective.

Yes. I think McCullers and maybe Frambois are going to be the only sort of pencil-in, you know, four or five-inning starters, you know? I think everybody else is just going to be like, okay, we're going to take this guy. We're going to put this guy in. You know, it's just going to be like two or three innings at a time from people. I think they're really set up well. I think all of their guys do something different. You know, Odorisi is different.

Greggie is different. You know, Fraber is different. Each guy is totally different. So, you know, I think the best teams right now in terms of what I know of the analytics that are being done are modeling uh swing paths and pitch shapes in tandem uh to be able to say like um you know it's funny because batter versus pitcher is like the worst stats in baseball like the whole like oh this guy's three for ten against him we shouldn't play him you know like that's like the least informative stat in baseball is like the the guy like how he's done yeah it really is that means

nothing what if he's like 70 what if it's a huge sample size you still start that guy i think even then it's it hasn't been predictive it hasn't been shown to be predictive because you're if if it's that then you're talking about a guy who has faced that guy over a whole career so like how how important is it that young young version of him played well against young version right like now you're talking about old version of him versus all right like if you're talking about uh joey vato against adam wainwright or something like maybe they have a lot of matchups but this is now joey vato versus now wainwright which how relevant is that to when wainwright was throwing 94?

You know what I mean? Like, I don't know. Like, cause more old school baseball is like, he sees this guy. Well, like there's something in his delivery that this guy picks up.

And I'm willing to listen. Maybe when you're talking about like 50, 60 plate appearances, some of those guys exist there, but those are very few of them. And a lot of times it's like, Oh, he's three for 10.

And you're just like, come on. Three for 10 mean nothing. Guys know though, when they're like, oh, for like 20 off a guy. Oh, the players know. Oh, they definitely know. I just don't think it's that informative for analysis. But what they're trying to do now is model the whole interaction beyond just the names on the jerseys. So now you're saying, okay, this is a flat swing guy, and what we have here is these kind of pitches with this kind of attack angle. Oh, this is a good matchup for the hitter, right? So that's the kind of work that's being done.

And I'm sure that if the work is being done, the Astros have done it. mean they have the some of the front line um analytics in baseball so when i look at that starting rotation i see oh they have all sorts of different pitch shapes that they can throw and so they're gonna be like oh man these like fromber's curve is just super excellent here you know what i mean like they're gonna be like javier's breaking ball is what we need right here or or uh odorizzi's splange, his split finger or whatever. That's what we need for these hitters. I see a lot of different types of pitch shapes that all are really good and an interchangeability where they're just going to be able to

hopefully hit all the right buttons. Some of it depends on Dusty, but I'm a fan of Dusty's. Astros have the best offense in the league based on WRC+. That's a great place to start and the most contact. They are a problem for everyone, whether that's the White Sox in the first round. If they win, it's face to face, whoever later on. That's the issue. They can out hit any problems their pitching has, and their pitching might be underrated.

Yeah, exactly. Still a very dangerous team, but like, I just feel like we're just in for a lot of great matchups in this postseason. Even if there's chaos sprinkled in with a few teams on the NL side that yeah, September has been a dud, but I'm hoping October won't be.

No, I think October is going to deliver in a very big way. One of the thing I was looking at for the schedule, by the way, if we get to a game 163 that involves the Red Sox, they'd at least have Nathan Evaldi lined up for that. If the Jays were to get to one, I think it'd be Jose Barrios. Those teams at least have good pitchers ready to go, whereas Seattle would be a back-end guy.

They'd be underdogs, but anything's possible. Would it be Logan? Gilbert, I think, would be. Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Gilbert would be on short rest, I think. Yeah, it'd be. No, he went Wednesday. Yeah, he'd be good on full rest.

It would be Logan Gilbert. So a big test for him. We're a big fan of his, but that's probably not on the same level as having Evald here. Definitely not on the same level as having you of all deer definitely not on the same level and various no no it's just it's kind of good fortune i would say for boston and toronto to be at that part of their rotation because it'd be a lot different throwing martin perez or steven max out there in that spot meanwhile the nl wild card game could be like max schurz or adam wainwright It could be just like must watch, must view. If you guys are the Dodgers now,

do you stop trying to win the division? At what point do you stop trying to win the division because it may hurt you on the wild card end? I don't know. I think they should because Fangraphs has them at 9%, but Max Bay was running some simulations and said it was like under 3%, I think. So, uh, you know what, that's not really big odds.

And I think you can also kind of play a game today, day to day, because you, you kind of need, what do you need? You need the giants to lose two games. So it's up to, and then you like, yeah. So I think if the giants win tonight, then, then you're just like, okay, we're arresting people. We're, you know, no important starter is going to go. We're just going to play these two out. I mean, you could try it.

It's bullpen games and maybe just win anyway if that's possible. But, yeah, eventually if you push yourself into a game 163 or the wildcard game because you stretched yourself out and you're not even ready for the wildcard game because you stretched yourself out and you're not even ready for the wildcard game that's a horrible spot to be in so i think you're right brit at a certain point probably it probably is after friday night if it's and they don't even want like do they want a 163 because then it's like you play you have to like put these resources into this game 163 and you're if you lose you're in the wildcard game and you use your resources

for the 163 like would you use max Serzer for the 163? No. If they went to the 163... You also have Walker Bueller, so you are a little... Right, I guess so. But you're right. It messes stuff up. You wouldn't want to use your best starter in 163 where the losing situation is a

one-and-done game the next day. Right. Anything else that's of interest to either of you going into this final weekend? It's been a bit of fun, regular season. I mean, we have fantasy championships,

obviously coming down to the final days too, but what else are you guys excited about this weekend? I hope it's not shot in front of it. It's just legit interest. I'm wondering if what happens with Jace Tingler at the end of the season, that was something that in our reporting on the piece that came out today in San Diego went back and forth. There were people that were sure he was going to stay and people were sure he was going to go. And it speaks a little bit to the theme of our piece, which is that Preller has his guys, quote unquote, and they're mostly

from Texas for some reason. I don't think that the Rangers won a lot of games with those guys in leadership roles, but he's brought the band back together for some reason. And I'm glad you pointed that out because I was going to read that paragraph because I found that the most sickening part of the entire story. I know it's part of baseball everywhere, but these GMs get to just hire their buddies. And then when things don't go well, they hire more of their buddies. Yeah. And that's how this whole thing works.

And in the Rangers case, they're like, yeah, take them. Like no opposition. Chris Young's cleaning house on a lot of the stuff that's going on over there and several of the people that are now going to be in san diego i haven't heard anything good about so if they weren't good enough to be in texas and texas was like yeah take them whatever why are they the answer for a padres team that needs to get back on track other than the fact that they're from the same area that aj preller is from again this isn't just the padres it happens everywhere um but it is just honestly one of the most sickening parts about pro baseball is it's all about climbing the ladder and then hiring your buddies and that if

you get fired one of your buddies that you hired is going to hire you are you yeah you have a soft landing and round around we go and people wonder why there's no diversity. There's no different voices. There's no women. There's no minorities. Because this is what keeps happening. But there's nothing to stop it happening. AJ Preller doesn't interview people for a farm director opening.

He knows he's going to go get it. Was there an interview process? Did you talk to anybody? Did you post that job anywhere? Yeah. What are the credentials of these guys? What makes Chris Dalia, uh,

an expendable Rangers front office guy, but really a must have for the San Diego Padres. Yeah. And no, I had, I had a couple of links that didn't make it to the final piece, but, uh,

I think are worth saying here. Uh, some people may react to, um, discussion of, uh, sort of diversity and being like, you know, yawn, you're just being woke, whatever diversity for diversity sake is not worth it.

I'm sorry to tell you, but the research is definitive on this, that companies led by diverse leadership do better. You know, this is, it's just, that's, that's true.

That's a truth. Companies led by, with a collaborative work environment do better. You know, this is, it's just, that's, that's true. That's the truth. Companies led by, with a collaborative work environment do better. Both of those things are not happening in San Diego. And it is part of what you're talking about. It is a lack of, and, and, and diversity is, is, is tough in baseball because there's just not often a lot of talented, I mean, it's a, it's a, it's an endemic problem where it's like, well, there's nobody to choose from. And, you know, that, that to some point that's true. Like it's full of white males. So like how, but there's also the idea of diversity of thought and diversity of background. Exactly what I was talking about. And that, and that's, that's not really represented

there either. You know, you're either in the, like, we all went to Harvard business school, you know, group, you know, or you're in the like, we all were scouts in the Rangers organization group or whatever, you know, like, it's, it is the sort of buddy system that and, you know, to people are trying to break in, you know, it is important to know this and to know this going in. And it's something, an advice I would give to someone that's young and trying to break into baseball is that it is who you know on some level and what you know is important. But even if you're going to be a coach or work with people, like how you present yourself, how you present the knowledge, how you comport yourself with people in the office, there is no getting away from politics, from office politics, office politics is humans interacting with humans. You know, you're not going to have an office where that doesn't exist. Right. So like,

you know, if, if, if someone listening to this knows their crap down to the T knows all of the research knows everything about pitching or everything about hitting, and just can't wait to tell the team and coach people in this. Remember, remember, there are other people. And if you think they are a-holes, they think you're an a-hole. Yeah, exactly. And that's the issue with Preller. And that's what makes me kind of worried about San Diego is when you surround yourself by yes-men, right? Like if the three of us all thought the same thing all the time who would listen to this podcast isn't the fun when like you know cardinals take you know comes out with the numbers and i'm like you know like um that's part of the fun and that's what cardinals devil magic i'm like no they're a bad team cut up britney you don't know anything come on nick

that team can't possibly go to the playoffs we would that happen we just laughed at her dude they didn't even take it seriously i kept i kept my laughter quiet i chuckled off my mouth dude i'm sorry guys i'm telling you but no it's true that's how innovation happens you get people who are not afraid to call you out or say no and i just don't know how many people in san diego now will be like hey aj that's a bad move don't do this like how many people are okay voicing displeasure or okay standing up and arguing like i'm reading a book about the wire right now and which was a great you know best show on television arguably and they talk about these writers meetings where they screamed at each other because they had a guy who was like former police then a guy who was like former police, then a guy who was like former politics, and they would just scream at each other. And in the end, they all met somewhere,

and it made these great scripts. So I kind of see that for organizations, right? Like diversity of thought. Like they can all look the same and still have diverse experiences. Backgrounds, yeah. That's what I think they're lacking. And that's what I think a lot of these organizations lack.

And so when the guy at the top can't see his blind spot, nobody wants to point it out to him. So you got like an emperor wearing no clothes situation, right? Where they're just waltzing around and no one's going to say, Hey, you're wrong. Hey, you're naked. Um, I think that's kind of what's going on in San Diego. Yeah. And there, and there are more changes to come that, uh, will, that'll make you sound very prescient in what you're saying. It's not done yet and it's a tightening of the wagons at a time when he needs more voices in there, I think.

Anyway, that's something the store is not told yet and he says he'll speak publicly at the end of the season, so I wonder what he will say then. By the way, check out the piece on The Athletic. You can check it out. 50% off a subscription at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels.

I have one very passing thought. We're going to save this for more of an in-depth conversation once we get to the offseason when the hires are actually happening and we know which teams have GM openings. But we've already sort of speculated on what could the Mets do?

It's going to be a big splashy hire. Is it going to be Theo? Is it going to be Billy Bean? And I'm curious to know if there will be a point in the Mets search where Raquel Ferreira is even a serious consideration for the job. Because when we talked about Kim Eng being hired by the Marlins, we kind of said, when's it going to happen again? What's next? Is this the beginning of an actual sea of change? Or is this just one big moment that's not going to be followed up for a long, long time?

And based on qualifications, Raquel Ferreira is as qualified as anyone to be a GM of a major league team. And I don't think I've heard or seen her name linked to that job yet. It'd be pretty weird for a team that needs to completely overhaul its culture to not even consider hiring her and this is the i'm not saying i'm mentioning it first give me an award i'm saying the people that report on this are they even going to speculate that she's a candidate i don't think they will i don't have that kind of faith in people well sorry uh there's there's partially you know her her bond a few days but then there's just it's sandy like yeah it's sandy we'll save this for the offseason because i have many thoughts on that as well like yeah totally nothing in sandy's track record says he's gonna hire like nothing

said like he didn't even know who she was because he said he couldn't have checked with anybody that was at the same level as Jared Porter. That was a woman. Meanwhile, I know. Meanwhile, Raquel was his boss. Yeah. Yeah. So, like, I know multiple women after that who reached out and were like, I can help the Mets or bring me on as a consultant. Like, high-ranking women.

And nothing. Cricket. You can't help people who don't want to be helped, Eric. I just... I think Sandy sees this as the athletic. It's a problem with the athletic. He said that.

Oh, I know. It's not a problem with me. It's just the athletic. The athletic just wants to cancel everybody. I don't think that's our core mission here as a company. And again, I wasn't trying to like start a fire and run out the door. I've got another place I have to be,

but where we should all be, we should all be here on Tuesday at 1130 AM Eastern, 830 AM Pacific for live rates and barrels throughout the playoffs. So that is going to wrap things up for this episode of rates and barrels, but we are back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening.