Rates & Barrels - The Mets & Padres Are One Win Away From the NLCS

Episode Date: October 9, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss critical Game 3 wins for the Mets and Padres that have the Phillies and Dodgers facing elimination Wednesday. Plus, they dig into the Tigers' and Guardians' pitching options in a bullpen-heavy Game 3 in Detroit, and the Clarke Schmidt-Seth Lugo pitching matchup on tap as Royals v. Yankees shifts to Kansas City.  Rundown 0:34 The Tigers' Game 3 Pitching Plans 6:49 Cleveland's Plans Behind Alex Cobb 13:18 Sean Manaea Deals in Game 3; Mets One Win Away From NLCS 24:05 Can José Quintana Keeps the Phillies' Bats Quiet in Game 4? 30:04 Clarke Schmidt v. Seth Lugo in Kansas City 35:17 Dylan Cease on Short Rest v. Landon Knack & the Dodgers' Bullpen Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday this fall. You can find us wherever you listen to your podcasts. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. it's Wednesday, October 9th. Four playoff games on the slate today, including one early matinee between the Tigers and Guardians. Derek VanRiper, you know, Sarah's here with you, breaking it all down. Two teams on the brink of elimination. We'll get to them in just a few minutes, but because time is of the essence, you know,

we are going right into game three between the Tigers and the Guardians. We talked a little bit about it on our Tuesday episode. I did the heavy lifting. That's not even fair. I took a moment to look at the usage of the Tigers pitchers from the first two games and because of the off days, both between games one and two and games two and three. The conclusion I came to is pretty much everybody's available. Tarek Scoobel won't pitch in this game. Of course, he started through 92 pitches on Monday.

He's going to be the starter for game five. The series goes that long, so it'll be on regular rest. And maybe you could say that Reese Olsen, because he threw 73 pitches as the bulk guy in game one on Saturday, is someone they'd use maybe like in extra innings on Wednesday and they'd like to have him as the bulk guy for game four on Thursday. So with a wide open card for the most part, A.J. Hinch has a few options. I think you suggested Bo Brischke as the first pitcher up for the Tigers. He closed out game two only through 12 pitches,

had the off day. What other options do they have? I've seen Cader Monteiro maybe as someone they could use a lot. He threw 25 pitches back in game one, so he could be used at least one time through the order, if not longer if they want to. They could do something different,

throw a short reliever in front of Brant Herter, who's only made one regular season start this year. They always seem to throw someone in front of Brant Herter. Lots of options on the table. What are your considerations and what do you think they ultimately do in this match at pitching wise? I think you still have to figure out who your bulk pitcher is. And when I'm on baseball savant today, it says Cobb versus Montero.

Whatever that means. And so if Montero is my bulk picture, then I want to go with Tyler Holton, I believe. And I just want to play with that lefty righty aspect to to begin with and see if I can't push the other, you know, push Stephen vote around a little bit in terms of at least where he puts people in his lineup in terms of lefties and righties and maybe even who he puts in line up, maybe make him burn a bench piece early on. So that's that would be the plan Tyler Holtan for. You know three outs four outs depending on how he's looking how it's going cater Montero for. Two and a third.

You know to you know just how many outs can you get one time through the order that's that's three innings so. one time through the order that's that's three innings. So, you know, so now you're in the fifth inning and then it's just a combination of Will Vest, Bo Brischke and Jason Foley for the most part to get through the last four innings. And I guess that means that each year guys has to has to pitch more than more than anything unless you kind of judiciously use Sean Gunther the lefty. What you can do even if he doesn't if he finishes the inning he doesn't need to do the three batter rule so what you do is I think you. the three batter rule so what you do is I think you you you do a full ending with like a bo briskey or a Jason Foley he starts the next inning if it's a righty he gets the righty out and if there's two lefties or two out of the next three your lefties that's when you bring in Sean Gunther to get through that and then you you reset with the other righties after that. So, um, Gunther might be a part of that. I mean, that's, that's, you know, they, they, they, they do this all. They, they, they have a plan. And in fact, rights holders, people that are sideline reporters and, and, and, and people that are associated with the people that are putting this on TV will have a meeting with the manager. a meeting with the manager a lot of times where the manager will tell them basically what the plan is and you know what order so that the rights holders know when to do a sideline bit when to do their bit

on you know oh bo briskey has been a great starter and a reliever this year whatever it is they know how to set up the the the even the guys in the booth know when to tell their story about Bob risky. So, you know, it's that's kind of, you know, what's weird, too, is that sometimes they adhere to that plan, no matter how good someone like Tyler Holt and could come out and get four outs in eight pitches. And the plan might still go on ahead. It might. And I think part of that is this is the only stretch of the series where they're going to play on consecutive days. You're thinking a little bit more about tomorrow with your relievers than you've had to at any other point in this matchup.

And this has been except that if you bank the win, you go up all important to one and you could almost flub tomorrow and there'll still be another day, you know, whereas if you don't bank the wind and the worst case scenario is you use all your guys and you use them pretty heavily and you lose. That's the worst case scenario. Right. But they are mostly rested. We haven't seen Foley. We haven't seen Brendan Hannafee. We haven't seen Herder. We haven't seen Jackson Job in this series. I wonder if there is a spot where the Tigers would like to get Job out there or if he's kind of the last guy they want to use.

They put him in a pretty key spot in that series against the Astros. Or maybe he's the guy if they're down one. You know, because you don't necessarily want to, you don't want to wave the white flag. Like that was an interesting thing for the Padres thing when they asked Dave Roberts after the, you know, Buehler gave up six last night. He's talking a lot about waving the white flag and thinking about tomorrow and thinking about usage. And that's, that's what, that's what they're thinking about is how many pitches can I use today in a loss or in a win and you know, that sort of deal.

So, uh, I think Joe would be the guy that would come out, especially since he could probably give them two. So if they're losing, you know, three, two in the sixth, you don't necessarily want to go to the Foley vest briskey package just yet. So you might do Joe first, see if you can get some runs together, then go to that, the final package. I do think we touched on it a little bit yesterday, but the way the guardians handle the early innings is going to be more interesting today than it has been in the previous games, because Alex Cobb has been hurt for most of the year.

He's only thrown 16 in the third innings in the big leagues. So I get the sense we're going to see one or two more pitchers than we've seen from the Guardians in the first couple of games of the series. It makes me wonder which combination of Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo, Eric Zabrowski or Andrew Walters we're going to see as part of the bridge before they get to the big four, as we've called them. They don't think they'll save Gavin Williams for game four. I kind of think they will save Williams because here's what I was thinking.

I think the way the Tigers are built and the way they're platooning Carrie carpenter with Justin Henry Malloy gives you a little more you can do. If you're Stephen vote to force the hand of AJ Hinch, right? So I think if you want to go ahead and use Eric Zabrowski, who's a lefty behind Cobb, maybe you can pick your spot and get a match up you really like. And the spot that would likely be if you start Cobb, Kerry Carpenter's up around the top of the order, right? Because Cobb's a righty, Carpenter's a lefty. You're not going to pull Kerry Carpenter early, but then what you're giving yourself is

the opportunity that second time through when you're taking Cobb out of the game to match a lefty up against both Kerry Carpenter and Riley Green if they're close together in the order. So I think it's something along those lines. So, you know, you take what you can do is you can take Kerry Carpenter, put him lead off so that you make a pain point for Stephen to vote in the Guardians early on, which is you've gotten through three innings. Alex Cobb is dealing. You think maybe we'll go second time through the order with him because it's looking pretty good.

I got Carrie carpenter is the first guy sees twice and if you then take sobrowski to you know reduce the effect of Carrie carpenter even maybe get him out of the game then. Then you then you've already gone to your bullpen. then you've already gone to your bullpen. Yeah. You know, in the fourth inning. Which maybe they're fine with. I mean, they do have a good bullpen. But in terms of depth, you know, we may have just the tiniest bit of disagreement

between the two of us about how deep this bullpen goes. I know that they led the league in ERA, but I don't really trust Hunter Gaddis. I mean, this is a guy who, coming into into the season had a career 13% strikeout rate. And I know that the fastball Velo went up a take and a half to two ticks. And that some of this was him starting before. So this could just be a regular old, you know, mediocre starter to good reliever conversion. But you know, like a one oh six stuff plus for reliever is only slightly above average.

And and he's like the fourth guy. So if you go to Sabrowski in the fourth, you have to do you have to pitch somebody that's worse than Hunter Gaddis, probably. Yeah, you're going to Katis, you're going to Gadis Smith and and. And Kate Smith and and class A to finish. If you want to save Sobrowski, you could throw Joey Cantillo and get maybe a little more length out of Cantillo with the lefty and have him go

through the lineup possibly once if everything's going well. But maybe you have a man from more than three outs. I think that's the other option you have. If you're if you're in Stephen Voet shoes, but I get the sense it's going to be one of the lefties because they have more lefties than that. They still have Tim Herron who is in their A-Core they can use later and by managing it this way I imagine AJ Hinch holds Justin Henry Malloy back as late as possible because they don't really

like his glove. You don't want to use Malloy early as a pinch hitter and have his defense out there the whole game. So you're probably looking at like Malloy versus Heron sometime after the sixth inning as a possible situational pinch hitting spot where you're throwing him out there. So that's the tactical thoughts around the pitching plans. I think in game three,

both teams kind of cobbling it together. Just, it just looks on the outside like Alex Cobbs, a little more stable than what the Tigers are doing, but I don't think that's the case at all. I think they're almost in the exact same spot. Yeah, yeah, it might be. I have a personal affection and affinity for Alex Cobb that may cloud my judgment. Like, honestly, just being honest, like he's, he was one of my favorite people

to talk to in the, in the clubhouse. So. Yeah. I was like, yeah, he can do it. Well, and Alex Cobb's story. I mean, I think if you ask Alex Cobb, Hey, can you just talk about the injuries you've had in your career? It's like the scene in forest gump where Bubba's explaining all the

ways you can prepare shrimp to forest. That's Alex Cobb's injury history. He's like, you're talking, you're like, boy, he's like thoracic outlet syndrome, elbow surgery, shoulder surgery. The one hip, the second surgery on the one hip, then the other hip. Stockholm syndrome. And you're like, wait, that's not an injury. And he keeps going.

You're like, no, no, I want to talk about the Stockholm syndrome. It's not a physical injury, but it's been a pretty amazing postseason so far. I think I saw our friend, Mike Petriello say this, maybe this is the best playoffs ever so far, like it's hard to put that out there, but I think so far it's been, It's so funny. My first response to... He had something like that, and my first response to his tweet, and I actually tweeted it, was few, because I thought that the first round was really boring.

I mean, at least in terms of like series, they weren't series, they were just sweeps. But they were surprises. They definitely had plot twists, and we've had all four of these series split at one. That's true, I guess even a two game sweep can be interesting, because it's an upset, and that's a surprise. I mean, the Tigers, Astros, the Orioles dropping two at home to the Royals is a big surprise.

The way the Mets got through. You know, what happened in that wild card round could be healthy for baseball. Because you could say man it's not awesome being like the third best division winner. Or being the first wild card and just leaving early you know like it actually maybe next year will buy that extra player and try to get to be one of the top two teams or. When our division that sort of thing. That might be why Phillies fans are feeling so deflated today, right? Mets are now one win away from advancing to the NLCS and the Phillies don't have the same

injury woes that the Dodgers have right now. You could do the Dodgers and say, well, a bunch of the pitchers got hurt. They have a whole pitching staff on the, on the IL. Right. And, and even though they, they earned the first round by, they had the top seed. They weren't the team on paper at the end of the season. They were at the beginning. So, you know, whatever happens from here happens.

They're just not that team. The Phillies are that team and they're one win away. And you can kind of just feel the momentum going behind the Mets right now. It's on the back of Grimace, the left shoulder of Sean Manaya, that they've got to this point. I mean, Manaya was phenomenal in game three.

19 swinging strikes, he out-dueled Arenola, just the way we would have drawn it up back in March. But I did see a clip from before the game, MLB's Twitter account put this out there, and our buddy Alex Chamberlain was kind of wondering if you use a pitching machine to replicate the release that Sean Maniah has, but the machine doesn't replicate the movement profile of those pitches, are you still getting the same benefit?

A better look at what you're going to see in the game, as opposed to something that might actually trick you a little bit because of the movement profile not being the same. I thought it was just an interesting question. I don't know if we have a real answer to it, but it's one of those things. It's like, how do you replicate weird in a way that actually benefits you in the situation? If the Phillies had come out and put up four or five runs on Manaya, knocked them out of the game after four innings,

the way people are looking at that clips completely different this morning than it is after the way Manaya pitched in that game. I think there's some benefit to what they did. I know that it didn't work, but you know, I talked to Michael Morris. He tied the game off of the sideways slinging Cardinals right-hander whose name escapes me right now, but he tied the game off of him and i asked him why someone was pouring beer down his backside. During the during the celebration afterwards how did you prepare for that moment how did you come off the bench cold and hit a homer off the one of the weirder releases in baseball and he said, I played the game who's up, who's up next, who, when do I come in? And I figured out that I would be facing him and I went downstairs and I asked our,

our, our bullpen guy, uh, downstairs to throw, you know, from that release to me. And that guy's not going to throw exactly like, you know, the pitcher that, that he faced that day. Um, and, and so, uh, you know the picture that that he faced that day and and so you know it's not exactly the same but it still helps because you're looking for that release you're looking for that release point you can still with that machine kind of kind of spot it I'm going to watch this real quick. Is it Neshek? Pat Neshek, yeah.

Yeah, Neshek. So I think that was it. I think he saw that release point. And he asked his starter, his bullpen guy, to throw from that release point. So you're looking for that. You're at least looking in the right direction. Whether or not the pitch comes out exactly right now,

you're talking about machines being, or machines being valuable at all, you know, because even the trajectory does not give you ball in hand all the way to the end, like a human being, so, you know. Well, and I think the question we've wrestled with at times on this show is, you know, what is the value of traditional BP, sort of grooved pitches that you're able to just crush? There's sort of a repetition, getting the hand-eye calibration that you want,

having a little bit of confidence, getting your swing to feel right. Yeah. It's more about feel than about replicating what you're going to see in the game in the way on-field BP has been done historically. But we're just seeing more teams try different things. I would be more on the side of maybe you would take a round to get that calibration, right? Take a second or third round that comes back and does something that's more

like what you're going to see in the game. I think maybe there's a both is actually the answer of what you're looking for in getting prepared to play. Yeah. Yeah. That's a good point. Um, you know, and then there's just a question of like, what are what things are available to you in the facilities that you're in currently?

You know, you do you get access to their trajectory? You know what? Do you have a do you have a bullpen guy who can throw from that angle? There's all sorts of questions that come to mind. That's a way to have a unique skill that keeps you employed right there. Just develop a funky arm angle and market yourself to major league teams as someone that can throw some BP. The, the, the, the game against the Phillies did inspire me to do a little bit of a little deep dive here.

And, um, you know, Pete Alonso, uh, in the first thing, what you saw from the Phillies was a definite attack plan of trying to get to know us fastball early in the count. They were very aggressive early in the count and Alonzo kind of you know started this off with. Taking a fastball the opposite way which is you know the announcers were talking about this is when Alonzo is good. This is what he's doing. But, um, I also wanted to point out that when Alonzo is good, he's doing some other things. He's kind of a silly guy. So here he is holding the rally pumpkin. When they asked him what the rally pumpkin was all about, he said, it's a pumpkin. It's fall.

This is Donnie. That was Don. This is the humping Alonzo did this, this humping thing that he was, that was a celebration for a while. It was kind of weird. That's the, the, the unicorn that he was doing him and Jesse Winker used to do this little weird unicorn thing when they celebrated. Um, and there was also the rally horse, um, which,

uh, you know, I think the, the quaddle bomb, I think they're, they're hitting coach had, had this one for a while, but this is the rally horse and the very end of this clip, you'll see that Pete Alonzo, uh, he looks back in the camera and he just smiles as goofy a smile, uh, after he pets the horse. And I, and I just think that this is, this is silly. Uh, one of the ones that went, one of the ones I've read by quickly is they created a hitting coach, um, that they called, uh, Donnie Donnie, Donnie Stevenson. They just made up this guy.

And for a while in post games things, they were like, oh yeah, Donnie's our approach coach. He knows what it's all about. And so then they hired an actor to actually act Donnie Stevenson out. And that was the guy that if you saw him in jean shorts with a ripped dude in jean shorts, that was Donnie Stevenson, the fake hitting coach that they made up. And, uh, I know, uh, you know,

it's to some part, some part of this is intentional. You know, it's just, um, you know, we need to loosen up a little bit. We need to have something to rally around and, um, but that goofy smile at the end from Pete Alonzo makes me think also like it's intentional in like a, in like a fun way, not like a somebody up in the front office is like, Ooh, you know, all the teams that have won, uh, have had a rally animal, like let's get a rally animal down there.

Yeah. Stat, you know, PR marketing, come up with a rally animal, get it down there, you know, and then it's like the rally pizza rat and everyone's like, stat, PR, marketing, come up with a rally animal, get it down there. And then it's like the rally pizza rat and everyone's like, yay, rally pizza rat. And sometimes, I think sometimes you get that with the home run celebrations. You ever get that where you're just like, okay, you guys got a hat and you put it on and like,

I mean, even though the rally spoiled sausage was like a little bit, I was like, I mean, even though the rally, like spoiled sausage was like a little bit like, you know, I was like, uh, this is, you know, what are we doing here? But I just wanted to highlight that Pete Alonso seems to hit the right tone with a lot of this, even when he's holding a nondescript pumpkin and fielding questions about the rally pumpkin. Yeah. I mean, I think part of it is having a group of people that are on the same page with how they kind of celebrate, but also how they keep things from becoming too tense

when things aren't going well. And I think that's maybe when you start to see some of the quirks of the personalities, the differences where some people are not into the celebration, right? If things aren't going well, but you're supposed to the celebration, maybe the clubhouse is kind of fractured. That's where I think you see some of that stuff coming out right now. I mean, like the Mets, everybody's rowing in the same direction. Most teams in the playoffs are like that, but you can definitely see it

in that dugout right now. I also, uh, you know, it's not necessarily pushing back, but like, you know, one thing that we have seen out of these Ms is a lot of different ones, right? So they had the grimace thing and Pete Alonzo was wearing the purple grimace cleats, you know, and then they have the OMG thing. And, um, I would say that like, there probably are different factions in the clubhouse, you know, there are maybe people who like the OMG a little bit more like that song, you know, there might be people who, who listen to different music and don't really like that song that much.

But the cool thing is that they've kind of flooded the space with all these different things that I do think that there's a little bit of like, Oh, well, you know, no matter what, when I celebrate, I can celebrate with something that that I like, you know, whether it's grimace or it's, you know, the OMG sign that they have, you know, there I like, whether it's grimace or it's the OMG sign that they have. There's different ways for me to be me in this clubhouse. So I'm kind of agreeing with you, but also there are different ways. It's not just that they're not all on the exact same page, but they're all like,

yes, they're all pulling in the same direction and they all have their own way to kind of celebrate. It's kind of like if you just had a playlist and your captain made the whole playlist, people might not dig it quite the same way as if everybody throws one song onto it. Yeah, exactly. Who's controlling the stereo in the clubhouse? Well, that kind of depends on their personality and how much they want to share that responsibility with everybody else. But this series, it's like one big swing for the Phillies away from going to a game five, is what it feels like to me.

And I think some people are going to say, well, they had the layoff, maybe the layoffs negatively impacted them. I don't know, they scored seven runs in the game they won. So I don't think we can look at that and sit here today and say, that's why things aren't going well for the Phillies right now. I mean, I think the Mets have played well. That's a simple explanation that satisfies me up to this point. I think there's only a couple of carryovers that I'm really thinking about from game three as far as bullpen usage goes. Carlos

Estevez came to this game and threw 26 pitches. So maybe if he's laboring through a save opportunity in game four, that catches up to him a little bit. And the Mets were able to rest Edwin Diaz on the other side. So I think that's a good thing given some of the struggles Diaz has had this postseason, I think less wear and tear on him this time of year could really only be a good thing and looking at the starting pitching matchup for game four, Rangers Suarez versus Jose Quintana. Quintana pitched really well in that game that sent the Mets through the wild card round

last week in Milwaukee. It exceeded my expectations in a lot of ways and I guess I'm getting to the point now where I'm having a hard time doubting him the way I did earlier in the year. But this seems like another tough matchup for a Mets starter that actually favors the bats the Phillies have. So it's just going to be having a good game plan, maybe finding a way to quiet that crowd early. If the Phillies are going to come back and take game four.

Yeah. And you know, you're throwing Jose Quintana out there as a lefty. You know, I, I just scanning the team. Uh, you know, I, I just scanning the team, um, I was surprised to find that the Phillies were third best in baseball this year against lefties with a one 18 WRC plus. And I, you know, I clicked through to see who was so good and you know, Kyle Schwab, our left hander, one 53 WRC plus against lefties this year, Bryce Harper, left hander 153 WRC plus against lefties this year Bryce Harper left hander 151 against lefties this year so I thought that those two left handers you know kind of maybe not necessarily neutralizing them with a lefty starter but. suppressing them a little bit would make this team more approachable because the big right handers are Trey Turner, Nick Castellanos and JT Riamuto with some bone. Those are good right handers, but they're not on the level of Schwab or in Harper, at least in terms of power threat.

But if Schwab or in Harper are coming off such a great season as lefties, I don't know that Kintana necessarily does much to to negate any of that. The Mets were fourth best with a 118 WRC plus basically tied with them against lefties so I don't know that the the left-handedness of the starters today is super relevant other than you may get Austin Hayes in this game for the Phillies at least to start the game. He hasn't appeared yet, but I think he's on the roster. He's been dealing with the back issue.

Um, but if he feels okay, this is why you got him. You know? So, uh, Austin Hayes may be in the lineup. I don't know for the Mets. Um, I mean, it's JD and Winker kind of sharing a spot right now. So I think JD would start and, you know, later in the game, we'd probably see Jesse Winker again.

And Jesse Winker just wants you to know he hates Milwaukee, which is like, dude, you were hurt and you had a horrible year. If you didn't say anything about it, people would forget how bad you were here. But now everyone here is going to remember how terrible you were for that one year. It's his choice, but a weird weird one. I mean I talked to him a few times that year and you know I do have a little bit of sympathy for him. It's just that you know when when you're hurting but in a way that allows you to play that was something that happened to me in my baseball career, uh, once. And you know, I took a immense amount of poop for it, you know,

from my play looking pretty bad. And I was like, yeah, well, I have a kind of a fractured bone in my foot. Like, yeah, playing hurt is like, it doesn't get you the curve. It should in most cases because the result of one kind of, maybe nobody cares because they're like, yeah, well, my thing hurts too. And that thing hurts. And like, you know, we're all kind of hurt like, so. Yeah. You just don't get a lot of sympathy from even your own fans in

situations that that is that like a Friday night lights thing. Are you hurt? Are you injured? Probably. Yeah. In any case, uh, it's just a little bit of sympathy. I understand that, uh, his celebrations could, in Milwaukee in particular, could rub people the wrong way. I don't know, what's the,

is there another move that they make? Is Harrison Bader in this lineup over somebody? Marte maybe higher in the lineup. Marte was lower in the lineup against Reide last time. Yeah, I mean, you got Bader and Tyrone Taylor are both Reide's, so I don't think think there's a look like a platoon situation there. It's just who do you prefer to play? But yeah, it's this seems like a close to even pitching matchup,

but one where I would probably lean Suarez if you said pick based on the starters. Yeah, yeah, it is an interesting thing that, you know, one from the from the from just you know behind the curtain a little bit I think that we're we tend towards and most people that are picking games tend towards who's the starter where's the starting pitching. You know advantage and I'm gonna start my my picks my my sort of process there and that becomes less and less powerful. The, the, the less the starters pitch. If we're going to, Oh, we're like, Oh, so Rangers Swires is better than Jose Guintana picking the Phillies. There we go. And they both throw three innings. And you're just like, Oh, dang it.

Yeah. You're usually making that pick based on like a five inning sort of assumption. Now it's more of like a three or four inning assumptions. You start whittling away. I kind of think the Phillies take this one and, and, and, and send it to game five. Um, if anybody's interested in some advanced reading, if that is the case, uh, I had a piece up to date about Kodai Senga and where his stuff sits, um, as he returns it, the Vila wasn't there and the cutter wasn't there.

Um, and so there's a couple of questions that Senga still has to answer that that the Vila wasn't there and the Cutter wasn't there. And so there's a couple of questions that Sengai still has to answer that may be surprising to you after what seems like a good debut in game one. So I think it'll go game five, and I think it'll be a fun series. It has been already. That's what I've been sitting on the entire time.

Philly's actually getting to and winning the World Series. So it's not great to have them on the brink of elimination quite this early. But that's the situation that I'm in. Let's move on to Kansas City, where the Royals are hosting the Yankees in Game 3. It's Clark Schmidt against Seth Lugo. I'm going to stand by my flyby prediction from Tuesday. The random dumb prediction that a misplaced sweeper to Bobby Witt Jr. is going to find the bleachers.

That's how Bobby Witt Jr. is going to wake up in this series. But I do like that we've seen Clark Schmidt in these last two seasons really develop into a pitcher who has four pitches that he's throwing against hitters on both sides of the plate. It's a pretty big step for him. He's got the cutter, the sweeper, the sinker, and the curve. That's a good mix overall. I wouldn't put a lot of stock into just how great he's been on the road because it's a small sample.

He missed half the season with an injury. He's also showed reverse splits this year. I wouldn't put a lot of stock into that, but I do think Clark Schmidt is a little bit of an underrated starter. And this is another case where, yeah, we're probably shortening up our expectations for starting pitchers because that's what it is in the postseason but I think this is a closer matchup than people might realize on the surface I mean the Yankees fans know what Clark Schmidt brings to the table I

think fantasy players know but I think a lot of folks who aren't in one of those two buckets might not be familiar with him and might be underestimating him based a little bit on just how good his opponent was over the course the regular season. Lugo was phenomenal and Schmidt only got about a half season in because of injury. I've got a 3-7 ERA projection for him using stuff plus and for Seth Lugo I've got a 4-14 so that's an interesting thing is that a model that looks at traditional the numbers and stuff plus would pick Clark Schmidt over Seth Lugo. Despite the seasons they've had so Clark Schmidt took a really good step forward this year in lefties he had a three eighty three sixty three slugging this year against lefties Clark Schmidt did last year was a 500 slugging for his career. It's a 457. So he really changed his approach against lefties this year.

And I don't know how important that isn't this particular matchup because most of the Royals thump is from the right. But it's nice to know that he has a plan for Massey and Melendez at least. And because he's so dominant, sinker sweeper against righties, I actually think he's going to suppress the offense in this one. I think this might be a low scoring game. Yeah, I mean it should be by all accounts. We did have Seth Lugo match up against the Yankees twice during the regular season.

I was looking at his pitch mix in those two starts. He changed it up pretty good. One of those starts was a really good one, a five, nothing win in September. There was a four, two loss in June. That was actually in Kansas city, but I wouldn't be surprised if he used another wrinkle because that's what Seth Lugo has just an almost infinite number of combinations of how he can mix and match. It was more cutters the second time out if memory serves me correct.

Um, but I think- Which is like a, it was a new pitch for him this year that he learned late last season in a bullpen with Ruben Niebla as a member of the Padres before he knew he would never pitch again on the Padres. It was a goodbye parting gift from Ruben Niebla, so. It's a pretty nice gift. I mean, it's better than a watch, right?

Yeah. It's the kind of thing that can get you to buy more watches for yourself later. Aaron Judge has got to wake up, man. I mean, I'm not not worried. It's kind of like my reactionary New York fan. He's got to wake up. I mean, yeah, yeah, he will. Right. Is there any reason?

Is there no reason to think he won't? No. But he's got to. It's got to. It's got to do it. All right. Who wins this game? Yankees. All right.

You got the Yankees. I think I'm going to take the Yankees in this one too. I started to think this series is going to go five though. I mean, they'll have a chance. They'll throw Cole in game four though, right? They'll have Cole on regular rest. Yeah. Which. And at chance. They'll throw coal in game four, though, right? They'll have coal on regular rest. Yeah. Which.

And at home. It'll be in your cold. Oh, you're talking Kansas City. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Cold. Cole.

Reagan's would go. Game five. Hmm. Hmm. I think the eggs are going to win this. Yeah. I had them go to the world series, so hopefully they can find a way. But I do think Judge gets going.

And there's just not there's not a lot in terms of questions I have about them right now. I think if they put themselves into an elimination situation going into Thursday, the conversation might be different. But I do think Clark Schmidt, despite a mistake to Bobby Wood, Jr., will pitch overall very well in this spot. Very specific prediction. I know's a very specific prediction. I know I needed a specific prediction.

They never land, right? I mean, that's, that's Bobby wit. Hallmars on an errant sweeper, low scoring game. Yankees win. Wits great. The rest of the lineup is bad. You know, you know who makes a prediction like that? Someone who's played fancy baseball for a while.

Right, someone who's built a DFS lineup or has been in a situation where they needed exact outcome like I'm throwing Clark Schmidt against the Royals and I have Bobby Witt on my team so I need Witt to do well but not to get smashed. Like yes. I need a solo homer. That is how my brain works after 20 years of this game. Looking at the nightcap the Padres have an opportunity in game four to That is how my brain works after 20 years of this game Looking at the nightcap the Padres have an opportunity in game four to eliminate the Dodgers you mentioned this earlier This game dude, so strange Mookie homers in the first the Padres hang six in the second and Mookie homers to the place that he homered when profile Stole it profile is there and because Profar is Profar,

Mookie almost abandons his run and actually get like, almost hits the pitcher's mound between first and second before his coach says, no, no, no, no, you hit a homer, get back. And he has to go back to second base. He like draws a heart on the infield. Uh, by the way, I guess by the rules, the umpire could have declared that he abandoned his run, but there's just no precedent for that. And it just, it would have been, it would have been ridiculous.

It would have been a pretty bad application of a rule that doesn't really get applied ever. But I actually felt bad for Mookie cause it, it, it stole the thunder of, he had his thunder stolen so ridiculously the first time that this time, even after he kind of got the Homer, he's like, yeah, okay. And then he did the daughter thing. He's like, okay.

Yeah. But you know, then the Padres come roaring back and Tatis hits a Homer that just explodes Petco. I mean, just the sound was deafening. I had friends in San Diego, their ears were done in by it. You know, it's just like just din, just absolute pandemonium. And then Tosca Hernandez hits a grand slam in the next inning. So, you know, you're like,

oh, it's gonna be one of those games. Yeah, it's gonna be 11-10, it's gonna be back and forth. They're gonna empty both bullpens, gonna be a slugfest, gonna be a major hangover going into game four. Yeah, they interview. Someone's gonna be just dragging, yeah, everyone's gonna be dragging going into game four.

Nope. They interviewed Dave Roberts after the third inning or so when it's six to five. And he's literally talking about waving the white flag. Now he's saying, we're not waving the white flag yet, but he, he's used the words. Hey, like the, the, the, the, the, the interviewer didn't use the words. He came up with those words. Oh, you're talking about white flag, huh? And, and he said, well, you have to think about who's pitching a day and who's pitching tomorrow and who you want to have available tomorrow.

So they left Walker Bueller in when it was six to two or whatever, six to one, whatever it was, they left it after he got smacked and then it left him in the game because they had smacked because they thought they'd lost the game. Right. And that's why I was so surprised. There were a couple of instances where I was like Walker Bueller still in this game, I put it in the game. Right. And that's why I was so surprised. There were a couple of instances where I was like, Walker Bueller still in this game. I put it in the discord. I think it was a top of the order came back up in the fifth and it was a six

five lefty when the top of the order came back around. Yeah. I mean, Bueller appeared to talk himself to stay in the game. Even at one point when Roberts went out there and I just thought, wow, this is, this is bold just in the sense that it's a one run game. You can still come back in, win this. And if Buhler gives a couple more runs here, you are going to be second guest and judged into oblivion for that choice.

Given how poorly the start went. Yeah, if you lose eight, six, eight, seven after you leave them out there, yeah. But to his credit, I mean, he stuck with his guy. Buhler made a couple of nice pitches, got through it. And then there's just no more offense. It's crickets for the rest of the game. It's six to five.

Yeah, the bullpens on both sides were great. And I don't really think you saw anyone get used to the point where they wouldn't be available for game four, which is really important for the Dodgers, especially because they're using a full bullpen approach behind Landon Nack. And then the Padres will use Dylan Ceason on short rest for the first time in his career. So you have to think a quick hook is possible for him as well. So that's kind of floating out there. Sores went for he's done that a few times this year. You could do something where you flip it and Suarez does, you know, gets an outer two and Tanner Scott

goes for. Right. You might just choose the matchups for that and let that guide the process. There was one play in particular that was fairly interesting from a rules standpoint, and I'm not the biggest rules jockey, so I had to read up on for this a little bit. But there's a point at which Manny Machado is at first base and he's running to second base, uh, and Freddie Freeman fields the ball. And this is where in Freddie Freeman hit Machado with the throw.

Um, and that turns a double playish or at least a, an out into no outs and Manny standing on third. That was a, that was a kind of a big switch and things. and Manny standing on third, that was a, that was a kind of a big switch and things. And, um, when Manny is hit by the ball from Freddie Freeman, he's, he's on grass. So if you think about it, he's running from first base to second base. And when the ball hits him, he's on grass. That means he ran into the throwing lane for Freddie Freeman. And he probably did it on purpose.

Now the, the, the rule book says book says, you know, people are like, oh, what about establishing the baseline? He ran out of his baseline. The baseline is established in a tag play. So there's a tag play wherever you are. When the tag play starts, you draw basically a straight line to the base and that's your baseline. You've now the tag play establishes the baseline. Now there is a rule that says that a runner may not interfere with the fielding of a thrown ball but in order to enforce that the umpire needs to know that was an intentional thing. And so the way that it works, the way that it's enforced in baseball normally is if the runner looks back. Yeah, I was going to say that'd be one of the only easy cues you have to really understand a runner's intent.

So if a runner looks back and then runs into the play, then you can say he's out. But in this case, and that's why I say I think man, he did it on purpose. I can't know. Well, there's a coaching. I couldn't know. And so the umpire didn't call it. But there's a coaching aspect of this of like choosing to run into that space based on where you saw the ball get hit without looking back. Right. That's the tactical is an infielder who knows he kind of knows what's going to happen, where that ball is going to, you know, you can, he can see it before he actually has to turn around and look at it. So, yeah. But yeah, if you don't look back, they don't have any real like obvious proof that you

chose to do that. Yeah. I saw a lot of takes of like, Oh, you know, he's out of the baseline. Well, that's not the right rule. I saw some takes. Oh, the, the umpire looked the. Well, that's not the right rule. I saw some takes. Oh, the the umpire looked the other way. That's not the right take. The umpire is looking for something specific to enforce it.

And that I think is literally the the runner turning around looking. Yeah. So the question for you for game four, how long does land and knack work into this game? I don't know that I would be throwing cease, but maybe the idea is go for the jugular and, you know, a Martin Perez bullpen game is not necessarily going for the, you know, going for the jugular. Right. Your choices are the you go, you go Martin Perez and your bullpen or you push cease by a day, maybe use your A bullpen

instead of your A and your B bullpen, and then you have a rest day. And if you need game five, you have Darvish on regular rest. That's a pretty good alternative to saving cease and maybe not ending up using Darvish at all. That'd be kind of a weird way to have it play out. Like if you were to not use Cease in game four, go to the bullpen, lose, and then have to choose between Cease and Darvish in game five, one of those guys doesn't pitch a second time in the series potentially. Yeah. Or they pitch less.

When did Cease pitch last? It would have been game one, right? Of this series? Yeah, it would have been Saturday. So in that game, I'm trying to see how many pitches he threw. They got him out pretty quick in that game. I was surprised by that. And the third 82 pitches, though it wasn't it wasn't the most.

So, I mean, it wasn't he didn't go 110. You know, it wasn't, you know, in terms of number of pitches, it wasn't, you know, one of the bigger ones of his career. He is their best pitcher. Yeah. So I think, I think I agree with the decision. I think you're doing it knowing that if you see fatigue, if you see anything that concerns you at all, you're giving them a relatively quick hook anyway, because you did that in game one on

full rest and that's part of just the difficulty of the matchup, it's part of the quality of the roster that you have, it's part of what you can do tactically to optimize your chances of winning. Nak, I mean, if we saw Nak for more than three innings, I'd be a little surprised. It's not impossible. I think we'd like what he brings to the table the table skills wise but I get the sense that this is much more of a. All hands desperation vibe in in terms of how quick they're going to flip the switch if they don't like what they see from land and neck. How how far how deep does your trusted bullpen go I I mean, I think Trayn and Vesia Phillips.

Copac is for Hudson's probably in there. That's five. Yeah, anything through like what four pitches yesterday in game three. So you got at least five. Those are five guys, but they're not five guys that maybe Copac could give you depth, you know, innings like in terms of four or five outs, if he's pitching well, like if he's commanded the ball, you know, it's, it's a really like, you have to watch to decide if he can go far.

But I would say from the five of those, I think the most I could, I could get is six innings. I mean, yeah, so I think you're hoping for a minimum of three. You're probably not expecting more than four unless your offense erupts and you can push it a little bit, but I still don't think they'd even push them that deep, even if they had a big lead because of the circumstances. Get three. That's where it gets hairy.

That's where you're in some trouble. Yeah. Because then you're bringing out, I guess, Anthony Banda who pitched. Okay. But I don't know how much I trust him or a rookie like Ben Casperius, cause you want a lefty out there. Ryan Brazier. I mean, there's some, there's some okay pitchers. It's, it's probably not as bad as some other people's depth relievers, but, um, that's, that's the Padres game plan is you got to chase that quickly.

Yeah. Yeah. What do you think? Is this one going five or do you think the Padres actually end it on Wednesday night? I think I know you got to winning the series. I think the Padres could end this. I mean, I like that, but. I like cease more and I like the back end of the the the Padres

bullpen more and between cease and act, who do I think can go for innings tonight? It's cease. You'd still bet on Cece, even on short rest, being more likely to go for. Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense based on what we've seen from Dylan. See the race to four. That's what that's starting pitching's come to. Who can go four headings tonight? You know, you know, there are so many old players just shaking their fist.

They're so mad at home watching this and something about that brings me a little bit of joy. It's like the game changes. What are you going to do about it? Like, we all have a little bit of troll in us. Even, even if you don't want to, we all have just, just a little bit. Thankfully I've got a lot less than a Jesse Winker though. That's all that matters. I think this series ends, I think the Padres take care of business.

Jesse Winker somehow. All right. Man, it's just uncalled for, man, just uncalled for. We are going to go as you mentioned earlier, you can check out his column plus all the other great baseball coverage we have on the site. Athletic dot com slash rates and barrels. Two dollars a month gets in the door for playoff baseball. NHL starting up NBA is just around the corner.

NFL and full swing college football. Whatever you're looking for, We got great coverage of that. Be sure to follow us on Twitter. Eno is at EnoSaris. I'm at Derek VanRyfe for the pod is at Rates and Barrels and join our Discord with the link in the show description. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Thursday.

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