Rates & Barrels - The Prospect Parade Continues with Jordan Lawlar

Episode Date: September 8, 2023

Eno and Al talk about what to expect from the latest prospect callups, Jordan Lawlar and Evan Carter, and consider the fallout from injuries to Sandy Alcantara and Jorge Soler. They also sort through a lengthy list of projected two-start pitchers and discuss some recent bullpen changes for the Marlins, Rays and Rockies. Rundown 1:17 Prospect-palooza continues with Jordan Lawlar, Evan Carter and Davis Daniel 10:54 The rest of the big news items 25:12 A few more hitters to consider 34:31 Two-start pitchers and streamers 49:26 Closer corner Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello and welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Friday, September 8th. I'm Al Melchior. I am here with Eno Saris and this is our weekly weekend preview show. Just a few of these left. And, you know, right off the bat here, I'm just going to confess that I lied. I lied about the date. For you, if you're listening to this right when it comes out, it is, in fact, Friday, September 8th. We are recording this a little bit early on Thursday the 7th. So there are a handful of Thursday night games that may, I'm certainly, I'm sure they'll

produce some news. It'll be a little too late for us, but we got plenty, plenty to talk about without those games in hand. So we are going to take a look at the week's big news. We've got one big prospect for sure coming up, maybe one or two others that are on the way, and the usual preview of hitters and pitchers to target, and a big, big list of two-start streamer candidates, and a little bit of bullpen news. So lots to get to here, Eno. So let's get right away to the big call-up, Jordan Lawler. He is coming up with the Diamondbacks.

Spent most of the year with AA Amarillo, 263 average, 15 homers, 33 steals, and great numbers in AAA. Reno, for the brief time he was there. So my question to you, Eno, obviously this is a big deal. It's big news. How much do we maybe discount the AAA numbers given the environment there? Does it even matter? Do we just go and pursue Lawler everywhere regardless of what those numbers are?

Or are you a little concerned that he's more or less leapfrogging AAA? One thing that I like is that ever since he had his injury, he's cut his strikeouts year over year as he's advanced through the minors. So I do believe that he can probably be an asset when it comes to batting average. It looks like he has a little bit of a lower launch angle,

so he's not going to be a guy that kills you in BABIP and he's fast. So I think this is a guy who, despite the projections, could probably hit 260, 275, 280. He kind of has a skill set for that i also think he'll get on base at a decent clip he's had double digit walk rates all the way through the minors so that's good news i do think that power is an open question mark we've had isolated slugging percentages for jordan lawler all the way from like 140 uh up to the current 250 in Reno. And the best ones have usually been augmented by a nice park situation.

I see a 108.6 max EV in AAA and a 33% hard hit rate with a 47% ground ball rate. I'm just using those to kind of approximate what would be a barrel rate in the major leagues. And I'm assuming it almost be like a four or five right now. So I'm not thinking that power will be the greatest output for Jordan Lawler. But I mean, for the D-backs, it makes sense. Everything's on the line this weekend with a series against the Cubs who are ahead of them in the wildcard race. He's better than Nick

Ahmed. He's better than Geraldo Pardomo probably. And there is the chance that he does hit for some power. I think if I was, you know, guessing a true talent full season where Jordan Lawler is right now, I'd consider him like a 275, 1530 guy, maybe 1525 guy uh obviously helpful in most categories but not as helpful if you need homers down the stretch right right and i mean just that combination prorated to a full season that to me sounds like a 12 team mixed league kind of guy still used in all leagues yeah somebody should be pursued uh i mean if we're saying all leagues, that would include 18-10 team. And I've talked about this before, you know, but my philosophy with that is when you have somebody with such a high ceiling and you're talking about really shallow leagues, I don't see an argument to not pursue them there because they get off to a slow start. If you've got a stacked lineup that maybe they don't crack it this coming week. Those players are easily replaced on waivers.

I have a 12-team league. It is sadly sort of a hybrid with keepers, so Lawler is not out there for me. But in this 12-team league, I am currently nursing along Jeremy Pena and Willie Adamas to the finish line, and I'm in second. And I would love the ability to bid on Jordan Lawler to drop one of those I think I would probably drop Peña first because Adamas at least shows the power

but yeah could he like could he outproduce Jeremy Peña the rest of the way for sure yeah that totally seems reasonable I think that, those are good comparisons too because those are both players that probably aren't in a lot of 12-teamers, but it's kind of on that fringe. So I think that's, yeah, Lawler is certainly a better candidate to have in leagues than the players that you mentioned. And I mentioned at the top, maybe a couple of other prospects coming up this weekend as well. And one is a result of an injury situation that's not entirely clear just yet, but Adolis Garcia left the Rangers game on Wednesday against the Astros, trying to make a catch, injured his right knee. And so the word from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News is that Evan Carter may get a call up. And like Jordan

Lawler, he has spent most of the season at the double A level, put up some nice numbers at Frisco, 12 homers, 22 steals, a 284 average, a 132 WRC plus. So if you're not overwhelmed by the counting stats relative to the league, Carter did quite well and a little time at triple A as well. So first of all, have you heard any updates on Garcia? Maybe that I missed in the last hour or so. And where do you think Carter belongs if he comes up? I have not. I saw the injury in real time.

My kid was excited to watch a divisional matchup. So we were watching that game together. And he tried to make a catch at the wall if i'm if i'm understanding that the right situation and he landed uh awkwardly on his knee and he he stood there for a while we thought he might even come out of the game i think he finished the game but he uh you know he's he's now it seems like he's hurt. Carter is a favorite of mine in OBP leagues, uh, in on-base percentage leagues. Evan Carter is a guy who's carried a 400 plus on-base percentage all the way through the minor leagues. Um, and I love his ability to make contact and, uh, take walks. Uh, it's not

quite Mookie Betsy, but it's reminiscent of that in terms of higher walk rates than strikeout rates at some of the levels. So I'm pretty excited about him in those terms. 106 max EV this year in AAA, and it's only 39 plate appearances in, so that's not everything, but it does line up with, again,

question marks about his power. He's more a guy that'll get on base and run than he is necessarily going to come up and hit a bunch of homers. I mean, he spent all year this year in the minors, 500 plate appearances, has 13 homers for it. So, you know, it's not a package that is going to produce the kind of outcomes that Odolese Garcia did. But it is nice for a Rangers team to have somewhat of a worthy replacement for Garcia if he needs a blow. Yeah, no, absolutely.

You know, given that the Rangers need to compete and get into that postseason picture, this move would make a lot of sense if Garcia is going to be out for any period of time at all. And then there's a third prospect that we may see. It sounds like we are going to see him not really on the same level in terms of Lawler or Carter, but Davis Daniel report from the athletics, Sam Bloom, is that he is going to be called up before Thursday night's game against the Guardians. So again, those of you listening on Friday, this will certainly be confirmed for you. It does sound like it's going to happen. And there's a TBD currently as we speak here for the Angels starter.

So Daniel could very well be making his major league debut as a starter on Thursday night. So Daniel has missed most of 2023 with the shoulder strain. He's not been pitching in the upper minors coming back from that injury. So, I mean, there's a lot here to kind of, I think, temper our enthusiasm, but do you see anything here if Daniel does go into the rotation that we recommend him maybe in 15 team leagues or something deeper? We recommend him maybe in 15-team leagues or something deeper. This is a complete black box, I feel like. I mean, he's pitched 25 innings this year, five of which were at the complex, and the other 20 were at A-ball.

Maybe if I had stuffed numbers for his AAA last year, but that was weird because after double-digit swinging strike rates, double-digit strikeout rates, he hit AAA last year, but, you know, that was weird because after, you know, double-digit swinging strike rates, double-digit strikeout rates, he hit AAA last year and dropped to a 7K9 with a 9.9 swinging strike, which, you know, if he was coming up off of that, I'd say, I'm not that interested. He has recovered the swinging strike rate, but he did it in the A ball. So I don't know if I'm touching this one. I'm just going to say that I will be very interested in his numbers once he pitches. I would much rather know what happened afterwards. Eric Longenhagen over at Fangraph that daniel was up to 96 miles

per hour at auburn but he was sitting 1994 with a nice curveball before his elbow blew out um and uh so now we have uh tj in april of 2019 and shoulder in in 2023 so, you know, in terms of dynasty, there's a lot of iffiness there with the injuries as well. Yeah, no, absolutely. So, but something to monitor. And again, maybe you all listening have had a chance to even check him out on Thursday night. So, not quite the prospect palooza that we had

at the roster expansion deadline. Yes, yeah. But it's still something. not quite the prospect Palooza that we had at the roster expansion deadline. But it's still something. It's, I don't know, going into September and seeing big name prospects like Jordan Lawler come up. Pretty exciting. I think we could also count a young starter who's on the cusp of sort of

losing his prospect done, but there's a Marlins guy coming up that, that you could almost count as part of prospect palooza in Edward Cabrera, who's suddenly I think a full starter that I know that he got used for four innings in the Dodgers game, but that same day they got the news in Miami that Sandy Alcantara has a forearm

strain and is out for the rest of the season so uh I can't really see how they're going to do anything but start Edward Cabrera every start out yeah they I think they really kind of need to do that and uh this this sort of forces us to jump ahead a little bit, you know, because like I said at the outset. Sorry about that. No, no, no, no. No, this is a good thing that there's a very lengthy list of two-start streamers and Cabrera definitely belongs in that.

And with his first start back up, really an excellent outing. Only four innings though, but still I'd be willing to overlook that. It was against the Dodgers and granted they've been scuffling a little bit lately, uh you know maybe give the the Marlins a little bit of credit in that and just a fantastic outing for Cabrera against the Dodgers and then uh for next week he lines up at the Brewers then at home against the the Braves so the Brewers one I kind of like but

that's clearly a mixed bag. So would you roll with Cabrera in 12 team leagues, which is probably where you'd be able to pick them up at this point? Yeah, that Braves start is a rough one, but the one nice thing is at least it'll be in Miami. I do believe in Cabrera's stuff as top shelf and maybe even willing that you know the Braves do sometimes only score two or three runs you know so uh that's possible what I do like after that is uh he gets the Brewers again and then he gets the Mets and uh I think that those are good matchups. The Brewers is in Miami. So, I mean, if it's daily leagues, he's got to be gone off your wire now because I'd start him in all those games except for the Braves.

If it's in weekly, you know, we may find some other guys that are two starters that we like better. But in terms of stuff on there, I think he's improved his locations. His locations have been above average over the last month. And that's really, really important with Cabrera. Cause like when you talk about his starts being at Marlins park for some

pitchers, it's, you know, that's a very encouraging thing. It's like, okay, they can keep the ball in play and, and minimize the damage that way.

But Marlins Park doesn't necessarily help Cabrera when he's wild. So the location being improved is really, really key for him. So that's, it's an interesting two-step for him. And while we're on the Marlins here, Jorge Soler has finally been placed

on the IL. His absence so far, when he was day-to-day, created some playing time for Xavier Edwards just a little bit of moving around with Josh Bell going to DH and then Luis Arias moving over to first base and Edwards I just I hate to say this you know but it's just my first association is always with the Blake Snell trade and I'll leave it at that because Blake Snell had a very infamous comment about Xavier Edwards but I will say it's it. Blake Snell had a very infamous comment about Xavier Edwards,

but I will say it's, it's sort of played out and Edwards first appearances in the majors, a very, very low hard hit rate, but he said him for average stolen some bases. And that's what you figure you can get from him. If he, if he does get some playing time,

which it appears he's, he's in line for right now. To me, the story I think is more that some of the guys that had been kind of in and out of that uh lineup uh maybe more solidified i'm thinking in particular of kind of jesus sanchez um seems like he's an everyday starter now um and with jazz chism in center you know you could do brian de la cruz jazz chism and jesus sanchez most nights you know and so i think edwards will get some play but this is i think the best news is for jesus sanchez i don't know you. Maybe it just means playing against more lefties, which may not be great for him.

But I do think that's more chances to hit a home run. And why do you have Jesus Sanchez in your lineup except for chances of hitting a home run? Well, let's go back to the Angels because obviously there's a big story there, ongoing story with Shohei Otani. And again, because we're recording before the Angels play on Thursday night, we won't know whether or not he started that game. But if he missed it, it'll be his third straight game, or I'm sorry, fourth straight game out. Now with the oblique injury for Otani, which obviously he's not pitching again this year,

not likely to pitch next year. But he, up until the last few few days had been dhing regularly so this is something you know that is not to make this personal on this show but uh hurting me in a playoff matchup this week where i started otani maybe unwisely because it was always a day-to-day thing to him even before the oblique injury so yeah i feel like he could be shut down at any moment. Yeah. So if we roll into Sunday and there's still not any resolution here, do you just have to go ahead and bench Otani next week? Yeah.

I feel like the momentum here is towards shutting him down for the season, especially because I'm speculating that he could possibly do an internal brace on the elbow, and that's a six-month timeline but if you think about it uh just giving him even this month of September in that six-month timeline uh gives him more time to pitch during the season next next year um so there are reasons for him to do it. I wonder if his agent is, I don't know if it's,

it's probably not legal, but, and I'm not suggesting he's doing something illegal, but there's got to be some way to kind of figure out what the market will bear. Will it be a one-year pillow contract? In which case, all you're trying to do is

play well enough to get a $20 million, $30 million contract for one year, and then prove that you can pitch by the end of next season, in which case the six-month timeline doesn't matter. So there's a lot of things going on in Ohtani Bill right now, especially centered around what he wants to do. And number one thing is he wants to do his play. So there's things pulling him in every direction, but I just think at some point somebody will tell him he has to shut down. Yeah.

Well, I think that is the wise assumption to make at this stage. And obviously when I talk about it rolling into Sunday, that's another few days there. So, you know, that's not a good situation either way, whether he's officially shelved for the season or there's limbo for basically a whole week. Neither situation is very encouraging. Just a couple more items here.

Gary Sanchez has a fractured right wrist resulting from a hit by pitch on Wednesday. And so his season appears to be done. And meanwhile, Luis Camposano, he's been getting, I guess, roughly half the playing time behind the plate. I would assume that this means a bigger role for him. And Camposano has done all right in this somewhat limited playing time. So as somebody who's not very widely rostered.

Yeah, I've watched him and I'm really surprised by the amount of contact he's making. There were some iffy whiff rates in his debut and in some parts of the minors. He's definitely not a patient guy, but there are a lot of players that kind of take this high hit tool, always swinging approach and and take it to to good heights so um the barrel rate's pretty decent the the max ev isn't isn't amazing uh but

you you know when you're talking about catchers the bar is always way lower um and in terms of like uh even his projected 17 strikeout rate that would be what like second or third best among catchers uh so i see this as a one of the rare catchers that can give you batting average um and could he do something like cabret ruiz has done this year with a 260 average and 15 homers uh 16 17 homers next year, I think that's totally possible. Yeah, and that's a good comp, a useful comp for us because it seems that whenever on the show,

whether it's you and me or DVR and me, we talk about catchers. Usually the discussion is, are they going to be a second catcher in a two catcher league? Because very rare is the case

that somebody just comes onto the scene or inherits playing time. He's right in between the two, I think. He could be a back end number one, I think. Yeah, but I think that clearly does put him in the number two catcher category.

So that's good news for a lot of people. Oh, that puts him in the number two for you. I think Ruiz is a back-end number one, and Camposano probably slots behind him just because you don't know. You know more about Ruiz than you do. I think we're talking sort of 12 through 15 anyway right

okay and I was gonna say when I use that one versus two catcher that totally ignores whether we're talking 10 teams 12 teams 15 teams 20 teams so yeah I think in certain instances Riz you're right

would be that number one catcher low end but yeah would be there in Capisano because of the playing time uncertainty and the production uncertainty I think does slot in behind.

So just one other item here, something that's, again, been sort of an ongoing story for the last several weeks on this program is the Orioles rotation, Cole Irvin going to the bullpen. Now, the thing that's a little bit of a twist here is that that's been anticipated because John means return is imminent, but the Orioles are going with a fine five man rotation for now. So that leaves John means role and arrival time a little bit unclear. Does this change anything for you or is it still safe to assume you think that means it's going to be in that rotation and needs to be added where he can be

outside of maybe some shallow leagues. I mean, this rotation also has Kyle Gibson in it, so it's not like they can't move somebody else out. Yeah, that would be my assumption, actually, whether it's Gibson or Dean Kramer. And I think what you do if you're the Orioles from a real life strategy standpoint is you make Gibson and Irvin the guys like if you are trying to win in order to win the division. Right. Because I could get tight. I would use Irvin and Gibson in like the fourth inning or the fifth you know what i

mean like yeah bring them in to be that bridge uh to the seventh especially since you've lost baptista and everybody moved up a chair uh that makes the the sixth inning more vulnerable so if they can pitch the fifth and the sixth you could ask flarity to go out there throw as hard as you can for three four innings We're going to take you out early. Sorry, dude, we got to win all these games. Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. Yeah, it makes me wonder if that's what's with this sort of weird timing

with them going to a five-man rotation. Yeah, I do. Like, what happens when you play the schedule game? You know, like, who has, who's, where Irvin was supposed to be the spot where Means took his schedule, right? Right. And what day was that going to be? Yeah, because they were, I think, at least at one point

lined up on the same days. Yeah, I've got a pitching probables from MLB. And for tomorrow, is there a game today for them? I don't believe so, but I can... No, there isn't. So then Friday, it lists Bredish. And Saturday,

it's got Flaherty. Sunday, it's got Grayson Rodriguez. So these are all the guys we know. Monday, it starts with the TBDs. Yeah. So.

So, yeah. And that'll suck too because that's when you're picking somebody up for it. Sunday night, you got to decide. Hopefully, we get more information. I would just say that some of this is not so important because I don't think Gibson is rosterable in a lot of leagues. He would have to be a two-starter, although I guess if he's that TBD guy, he could be a two-starter. I wouldn't basically depend on anybody on the back end of this to be a great two-starter. Even if Means

is scheduled for monday they call him up for monday and they say oh he's pitching monday and that makes him a two starter do you think he'll pitch much more than like six or seven innings for the week you know yeah so that's a that's a good point and so i'm looking at some probables as well so the way these are lined up and i agree you have to really take this with a big grain of salt, is Dean Kramer and Gibson. Yeah, they'd be Monday, Tuesday. But yeah, I wouldn't feel great about that.

On the Sunday, Neen said he'd make another minor league start. So he's making one during this week. So he could be activated Monday or Tuesday. I kind of think Kramer has risen above. So if you do want Kramer for... What's the schedule then? It's Cardinals race. It's not great. I don't think that I'm running

to get Kramer there, especially given what might happen. Yeah, I'm with you 100% on that. All right, well, let's pivot back to some hitters and not really a long list. In fact, this is going to be sort of a revisiting of a lot of names that we've talked about in recent weeks. But I want to go back to the big names from about a week ago on this show. Jason Dominguez, Ronnie Mauricio. And I'm going back to them, first of all,

because they've both performed better than I would have necessarily expected, especially Dominguez. And they're both out there. Mauricio especially, he may even be in some, not 15 team, but maybe 13, 14 team leagues. And they're both out there in someicio especially, he may even be in some not 15-team, but maybe 13, 14-team leagues. And they're both out there in some 10s and 12s. So obviously based on the results,

you would make a play for them this week. But we've also seen lots of times where very good prospects come up initially and do great. And then things kind of catch up with them. So do you see any risk at all? I see a little bit with Mauricio just because I like Jason Dominguez's approach to the plate better. Ronnie Mauricio has swung at 47% of the pitches he's seen outside the zone.

I have to feel like, and he's also hit 69% ground ball, which is not nice this early in his career, and also maybe not super meaningful 19 plate appearances in, but still, those are two signs where I'm like, man, I feel like this guy can give you pitch too. Plus, his projections aren't as nice. So if I'm choosing between the two, it's Dominguez. If I'm choosing between two for two, it's Dominguez. If I'm choosing between two for

careers, it's Dominguez. I'm not saying that Mauricio has no chance. Mauricio does hit the ball super hard and has good legs. So I do think that he will be a contributor. But I also think there's gonna be some bumps in the road for a guy that has some flaws in his approach. Yeah. So you mentioned legs, three steals already in just five games, 421 batting average. But that's obviously extremely BABIP driven. Like you said, not much power, not much launch angle there for Mauricio. And yet some results that have been helpful for those who have started him this week.

So I do agree. It's kind of a no doubter that if Dominguez is out there, pick him up wherever you can. And then a few other players who they're kind of on that same fringe, like probably out there in your 12 teamers, but not necessarily JP Crawford, who's really broken out in the latter part of the season. David Schneider, who's sort of carrying the Blue Jays offense at this point, strangely enough. And Mitch Garver, who I'm just always surprised each week when I look at roster rates that he's not more widely rostered. So is it time for Crawford, Schneider, Garver to just be graduated to shallower leagues at this point? Crawford's kind of boring I I like him and he's my shortstop in

AL labor and we're trying to push uh we're you know second or third every every other night but um and I'm happy that he's doing this and I think you know it's he's played well but uh what's he gonna do the rest of the season maybe hit for for an okay average, maybe hit one homer, maybe steal one base. Schneider, on the other hand, is trying to pull everything in the air. And while there may be some ups and downs to this in the future, where we've seen his batting average yo-yo in the minors, and when you hit this many fly balls, I get it. But he also does not swing at pitches outside the zone.

balls. I get it. But he also does not swing at pitches outside the zone. And this approach really leads to, it can lead to homers and bunches. So if I was looking for homers in that threesome, I would pick up Schneider in a second. In fact, I know his strikeout rate is high. This is the kind of guy that I would bet on over a struggling. Like if I was still nursing Tim Anderson along, hoping for him to hit to his projections, David Schneider would be an easy pickup for me. Yeah, and still getting regular play, obviously, with the players out for the Blue Jays hitting in the heart of that lineup. So a lot to like there with him.

I think also even when they get fully healthy, I'm not sure that, uh, he sits anymore because a, they've needed offense, uh, you know, more than all and anything. And then B like, it's not like second base was, uh, super solidified. You can play Merrifield in the outfield. Um, and, uh, you could pretty much give Schneider second base and move Merrifield into a platoon with Kiermaier and into a virtual platoon if you want to move Moparsha over to center or whatever. But, you know, it's not like Cabanvigio or Santiago Espanol or Whit Merrifield has been playing so well that David Schneider can't play. Absolutely true. No argument there.

So those players, none of the ones that we mentioned are likely to be around in your 15 teamers, 14 teamers. So not necessarily helpful to think about them there, but I've got a few players who are pretty broadly available. And one, a little bit of a surprise to me, you know, Nuelvi Marte, on the one hand, a little bit of a surprise. And on the other hand, I mean, he's not been overwhelming at the plate. And then when he first came up, there was the question of where is there even going to be regular playing time on that. I think that's – isn't that still kind of a question?

You've got people asking Joey Votto if he's going to come back or how he feels. Steer came back, and Carnacion Strand is there. mcclain is the guy who uh we're waiting on but uh uh he said another two to three weeks that's news i hadn't seen so that means marty might be safe for another two to three weeks um okay just getting close to end of season yeah at this point i think uh martez is an interesting pickup again he's a little bit mauricio like but he has a better uh plate approach doesn't swing at everything hasn't quite gotten to his max power um you know over and over again but it's in there um and there's you know chris, you know, and I've had some discussions

about this where there are people who disagree vehemently about how good he is. And I could see that because, you know, he's hit a ball 115.6 already. That's amazing. He's never had an ISO above 200 at any level in the minor leagues except for rookie ball so that's a disconnect for me like what's going on there he's not getting to that max power enough and I wonder what what the mistake is there also like he has stolen bases but I'm a little surprised that he's had five in the major leagues given that he seems more like a 15 to 20 guy in the minors. So, yeah, there's some question about how good he is, but he's going to play some games in Cincinnati.

He's playing regularly, and he has that massive raw power, and he's stealing bases. So I think he needs to be owned everywhere. Yeah, yeah. I don't know about super shallow leagues, but definitely, you know, 15 teamers where he's,

he's out there, not maybe broadly, but he is, I'm surprised he's out there as much as he is. And even some of those deeper leagues. So definitely needs to be picked up there for sure. And then going even a little bit deeper, you know,

Nick Martini, he's been sort of a staple on the show the last couple of weeks, because he keeps surprising us both at the playing time and the production. And then going even a little bit deeper, you know, Nick Martini, he's been sort of a staple on the show the last couple of weeks because he keeps surprising us both at the playing time and the production. And then a player I think I brought up last week, but I think it bears bringing him up again because nobody's really picked him up is Nelson Velasquez, who's getting some run and some power production with the Royals. So Martini, Velasquez, where do they fit in fantasy wise? I don't know if I can get behind Martini, Velasquez, where do they fit in fantasy-wise? I don't know if I can get behind Martini. I mean, they just claimed an outfielder. They seem to have so many outfielders. I don't know that I can really figure out the playing time situation

in that outfield. Martini has come off the bench for some of his games, if you look closely at his game log so uh i don't know if i'm uh fully a support of him nelson velasquez on the other hand i think is starting every day and i do wonder if uh the scouting report's going to catch up to him i mean uh you know for chicago the teams that saw him regularly found a way to kind of minimize his power and maximize his swing and miss. But obviously in Kansas City, that hasn't been the case. I wonder if it's sort of a lag time on his scouting report.

At the same time, I don't care. I think we're getting into the YOLO part of the season. If I need homers, where else am I going to get them? This is a guy who's producing them in bunches. In most of my leagues, Schneider's not there. Velazquez is a budget-level Schneider if you need. Yeah, and I like that categorization. And of the three deeper league options that we're bringing up,

Velazquez is definitely the one. If you've got a categorical need for home runs and maybe RBIs. I think he's the obvious choice given that all three could be available. So let's get on with the pitching portion of the weekly breakdown here, Eno. And as I said, there's a lot of two-start options. We mentioned Edward Cabrera. So I'm probably going to lump some of these together because like I said, there are a lot. So let me just start with a one-off here. Brady Singer, he's got,

or at least projects to have a road start at the White Sox, which whether it's home or away, I just like them as a matchup. I think most people do at this point, but then he finishes up at home against the Astros. So very much a mixed bag there for Brady Singer. Astros have scored the most runs in baseball in the last week in the last month yeah well yeah they've been scorching for a while so is that is that scary enough

to not uh you know not take the plunge with singer say in a 12 teamer yeah all right well because i don't i don't like his talent that much. Okay. Well, then that's a bad combination. We've got a couple of Red Sox options here. And James Paxton, I'm not sure about this, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he was on the most dropped list. I think he is there, given his run lately.

Cutter Crawford. The matchups don't sound, based on history and what we're kind of used to, the matchups don't sound great, but a couple of teams that aren't what they used to be offensively with the Yankees and the Blue Jays. I don't know. The Yankees did show recently they're a little bit revitalized. They've changed their lineup. They aren't even what they were two weeks ago.

And Toronto, at Toronto, I know that Park is playing a little differently this year, but I can't circle these names. All right, well, let's go one down the list, and this is going to be a tough one too, you know. At Colorado. Jordan Wicks at Colorado. Then at Arizona, that one I don't mind too much

Loller in the lineup but Jordan Wicks first of all just what's your general impression of what you've seen from him so far Wicks is interesting because his best two pitches are cutters and changeups and those are ones that my model does struggle with a little bit at the same time

when I encounter a situation like that i just want more sample uh to really believe and it's not like he comes with huge prospect pedigree or anything so um you know in the case of somebody like brian bayo who had more prospect pedigree and my model said you know his changeup wasn't that good, I was able to say, well, the model doesn't love changeups, but his changeup's performing well, and the prospect hunters loved him. I'm going to give him a nudge in my ranks, and I'm going to believe in him more. I don't necessarily have that with Wicks.

Yeah, that's fair enough. It wasn't on a lot of our radars just a few weeks ago. Clark Schmidt, he's been kind of a tough one this season because earlier on was getting a lot of our radars just a few weeks ago uh clark schmidt he's been kind of a tough one this season because earlier on was getting a lot of swing and miss but not great results better results uh the latter part of the season but less swing and miss and then he starts at the red sox which is not great but then at pittsburgh so a really tough one here i think to read i think this is uh a little bit better than the ones so far. I don't know that I'm rushing to circle him here,

but I did want to check really quickly. I have a mailbag coming out tomorrow, and I wanted to look at some of the pitchers all the way through. I have a Detroit at Boston-Pittsburgh. Does that mean he's starting tonight, Clark Schmidt? I don't believe so. Or maybe he just started against Detroit. He just did, yeah.

Okay, I got to get rid of that one. So that Boston start is his next scheduled start. So at Boston, at Pittsburgh, and then he finishes Arizona possibly, and then at Toronto. So, I mean, if the calendar worked differently, I would love that at Pittsburgh, Arizona combo. So, you know, there's some interesting things going on in this schedule where I wouldn't necessarily want him at Boston, but I might grin and bear it, like I said. And then if you do grin and bear it, you might get him for Arizona the next week and be happy with that.

Okay. All right. So it looks like maybe he is the leader in the clubhouse up to this point okay yeah home starts so you gotta like that for jose cantana city field and then the matchups i don't know what what to call the reds at this point because they're not at full steam they're not producing like they they did uh probably a couple months back so i'm not sure if they're a good or bad or medium matchup at this point but but you got the Diamondbacks and the Reds at Citi Field for Quintana. Yeah, I'll take that. I love that park. He's not my favorite pitcher on this list by quality necessarily, but he's not in the bottom

of that. And then the matchups I like the best. Okay. Well, I'm going to start grouping together here. He's got a couple of pitchers who haven't always gone real long into games, but they've become staples in their respective teams' rotations, Pedro Avila and Zach Littell. And Littell's scheduled to start on Thursday night. So obviously you've got another start there to look at that we don't at this moment. But Littell's at Minnesota, at Baltimore, at the Dodgers,

but then at Oakland, so got to like that second start. Yeah, and I think we can package these together with Hanjin Ryu versus Texas versus Boston, Dakota Hudson at Baltimore versus Philadelphia, versus Texas versus Boston, Dakota Hudson at Baltimore versus Philadelphia, because they're all kind of guys that won't go deep. Hunter Ryu is stuck at five exactly. I, in fact, am amazed by how exactly at five he's gone.

I think he's gone exactly five in every start. So it's hard sometimes to get a win, especially if you're going against Texas and Boston. You only pitch five innings. You feel like those games will be decided in the sixth and seventh. So I don't think you're going to get a win there. Littell doesn't go deep. Avila doesn't go deep.

Hudson doesn't go deep. I'm going to take the pass on all of these guys if I have better options. This does smell to me a little bit like what happens in your deepest of leagues, like if your main event in NFBC or something, you might be looking at something like this. And in that case, I guess I would grin and bear it and take Littell. Yeah, I think I agree with you, but I was also thinking that on the whole with these four pitchers the matchups are are not that great no and so if this is a situation dvr brings this up

a lot and i think it's helpful because some people play in daily league some people play in two uh lineup setting uh points a week and for the avila at oakland i would not want to miss but coupled with the dodgers start i'm probably gonna pass yeah that's why i say latel like neither one of those is the worst of the options and neither one of them is the best you know what i mean and like talent wise he's probably the best or second best and matchup wise he's like second best so i'm just gonna take the guy who's second best talent second best matchups you know um i don't know i don't i just i don't believe ever in dakota hudson he's got a bottom shelf command they don't let him play that long he doesn't get strikeouts will the cardinals get a win against baltimore or philadelphia so i don't like that at all. Ryu's team might get wins in those, but I just,

I don't think with him going five innings, he's going to get the win. So Littell's my guy. All right. Well, we've got three at the end here and I did put these in, in an order that that's approximates my preference, but you know,

it sounds like we, we vary a little bit and you kind of like this middle group, maybe a little better, but at the bottom here, we've got Ryan Nelson at the Mets and then at home against the Cubs. And Nelson, too, is pitching on Thursday night. So that may influence things. And then Andre Jackson at home against the Nationals and Yankees. So Jackson's got the home park.

A good matchup, I think, against the Nationals. And then Ken Waldechuk. I just don't like the matchups at Houston, and then Padres at home. But anybody here, that's worth the risk. I guess Nelson. Andre Jackson has a good curveball. He has three pitches that are close to average close to average

command but i think you can see how that goes up and down he just had a bad start um in his last outing and i just i don't know that yankee start yeah i know it's at home but it bothers me and what i like about nelson is it's in new york where that's a bit of a decimated lineup uh they're running out the kids and it's in new york and then when bit of a decimated lineup. They're running out the kids, and it's in New York. And then when he's home against Chicago, I actually kind of think what's interesting about that is now you're choosing among the bad options. And the only interesting thing about Nelson versus Chicago is

that's such an important game for Arizona that I just can't imagine they let him out there to die on the vine. You know what I mean? It's not going to be a blow-up. So what you're hoping is a good start against New York. He goes 5-6, gets a win, and then the bad is mitigated because even if he goes two or three innings and gives up two or three runs in Chicago,

it won't be a six-run thing. There's no way they let him out there to give up six runs because they will have other guys ready. Their whole season is almost on the line. They need to beat the Cubs to stay in this wild-card race. I like Nelson a little bit there. Interesting. I like the thinking on that.

All right, and then just a handful of one-start options because I basically, well, three of them I like the matchups. One is just interesting, and that's Michael King. I don't like at the Red Sox, but he's starting. He went five deep. I think it was his last time out. So, I mean, is he worth trotting out there against the red sox and is there anything longer term that you like about king as a starter uh i did want to see here uh i like king uh he's kept his stuff plus up in the transition to

starting and uh he has a good sinker slider combo and i think he has enough other than that to make it work um the problem is that uh you know you've got king down here for this at boston start the next two starts are toronto at toronto and then at Toronto. And I know they haven't been pinning that well, but that is not one that I circle. I love that King ends probably at Kansas City. So it depends a little bit on your stomach for risk and how good you think King is and how much you want that last start

and how much you think he can make it to that last start because we're talking about an innings guy we're talking about a transitioning guy so I like King's talent a lot and if you're like in a dynasty or keeper league where you can pick them up and pitch them some and maybe keep him for next year then i would do that um but uh in terms of matchups those aren't great matchups yeah well he he got the astros the last time out and did really well went five deep he's got the brewers this weekend which i don't think that tells us a whole lot but you could pick him up and stash him if that's something you can do in your league for uh that boston start because i think if he he fares well against milwaukee against boston those toronto starts to me look a little

less scary so that's just one way maybe to approach it and i just uh i'm sorry that could be it yeah i mean if you if you don't find those as scary then don't worry about it yeah yeah and then uh a few other starters actually i think i said there were three others technically i'll throw in a fourth one kyle harrison gets the guardians that's not a great matchup for strikeouts but harrison if nothing else he's he's been getting the strikeouts since coming up uh wade miley uh weekly fixture on this show he gets the marlins at home griffin canny gets the tigers at home and i'm going to toss in kenny rosenberg who I think is strictly monoleague and deep mixed league, but he also gets the Tigers.

Yeah, I like Kyle Harrison some. Somebody asked me why his stuff numbers were higher in the minors than they have been in the majors. And it's a pretty easy answer. And it's a pretty easy answer. When he was in the minors, he was working on fastball command. I talked to him about this. And so they had him throwing fastballs and sliders.

Now, interestingly, those are the pitches that he can't command as well or the fastball isn't. So his location numbers were bad. His walk numbers were bad. But it does point to what we see sometimes, which is in the minor leagues, are about development. And if the minor leagues are about development, you have him doing certain things that are better for his development than what he would do in order to win games. Now he comes up. He wants to win games. He's throwing more slurps, he calls it, the breaking ball, and change-ups

than he did in the minor leagues. Now, Stuff Plus doesn't love those two pitches, but it might make him a better pitcher to throw the fastball slider curve and change and be a four-pitch pitcher. So I think, all in all, to have two really good pitches that he does in the fastball and slider and four pitches overall and not be showing as poor command as he does in the fastball and slider and four pitches overall and not be showing as poor command as he was in the minors i'm generally still positive about kyle harson i like that cleveland matchup and you know i don't know uh how good his matchups are beyond that um i mean it's a bit of a guess with uh how stupid the Giants are, but I'm guessing it's at Arizona, which is good, but then he finishes it with at L.A., home against L.A.

So whatever you think of Kyle Harrison, he's probably not a great stash for the end of the season. All right, but he can be a streamer this week and, again, give some consideration to the others that we mentioned here. But I just want to pivot here to the final segment, the closer corner. And we've actually got a little something this week. So first of all, this is not really a super new development. But Tanner Scott does appear to be the Marlins primary closer at this point.

And yet he's still he's out there, 10, 12 teamers. And one of my 12 teamers where I lost, Felix Bautista, I picked up Trevor May. Tanner Scott's still out there. So if you had that opportunity to swap out May for Tanner Scott, would you do that? Yes. Yes, I don't know.

I think the Marlins are playing well, and despite some injuries that we talked about today, I believe that they will win more games. And if you win more games, you can have more saves. So that's my thinking there. Also, I think that Tanner Scott has more stuff. All right. So a very strong argument there for me to make a switch this weekend.

And you too, if you're in a similar situation. A development in the Rays' bullpen going back to the weekend, this past weekend, Jason Adam put on the IL with an oblique strain. Pete Fairbanks has just continued to get saves for them, but the Rays being the Rays, sometimes that's a team where you can go in deeper leagues for that second option and try to pick up a few stray saves. Robert Stevenson's really emerged as a very reliable reliever for them.

Do you think that he'll maybe pick up a save or two? I just did something really weird that's crazy i was trying to make a custom report and i just put like everything in that is hilarious how did i do this this is so funny on fangraphs you can do custom reports and i put like every stat in so i'm i can now scroll sideways from all the pictures on the Rays. But I'm like so deep in that I can't find who the name is anymore. All right, I'm going to sort by holds if I can find them. Where are the holds?

I mean, my basic way of doing things is I get the Stuff Plus on there and I get the holds on there. Because the most important thing is how uh a team is using you um and so holds are a huge metric and i am stalling to try and find this in all of this mess that i've created that is hilarious i've got all right well i think i could toss you a softball how many a softball oh there's a holds there we go and it lost me on the 14 there we go I've got it

Robert Stevenson yeah that's my guy I think alright Sean Armstrong is a decent pickup too he's got some holds he has better stuff plus overall and what i've found that's a little bonus for you in starting pitcher uh eligible leagues um he's starting pitcher

eligible yeah that's that's not nothing yeah there's a lot of places where you can pick up sean armstrong and sneak some holds i just just did that today in one of my leagues. What up, Pitchfork crew? And that's what I was thinking, was that Armstrong is going to be up a seat in that thing, and he's starting pitcher eligible. And on the days I don't have a starter in there, I can throw him in there and try to get some sneaks and holds in.

All right, excellent nugget. Well, we'll finish up on something. I think it's, it's going to be an easy call, but the Rockies appears has a change in closer. And so Tyler Kinley is the new pitcher in the seat. There doesn't matter. It's the Rockies.

I can't do it. I mean, like when they're good and they win some games, then like, maybe I can grin and bear it, but they're the worst team in baseball or second worst team in baseball. What are they on pace to win in the next three weeks?

Yeah, five games maybe. Five, eight games. And then how many of those would have a save attached to it? Like two or three? And then how many blow those would have a save attached to it like two or three and then how many blow-ups do you have to take from your your closer area to get those three saves be a lot of work for three saves yeah no i agree so uh i figured but had to ask i had to ask you know so fair enough all right well let's uh just uh close out, close the week out. And first of all, just a reminder that if you want to find Eno or me, we are on Twitter.

You can find Eno at Eno Saris. I'm there at Al Melchior BB. And also, you can now get The Athletic for a month, for a dollar a month. You can get it for a month if you want, I guess. You can get a dollar a month for the first year. We recommend the whole year. So, and you get all of Eno's work.

You get the, at least for a short time, my weekly waiver column. You know, what do you got coming up that people can, can be reading? I got a big mailbag coming up tomorrow. That's kind of fun.

I did break down some of these pictures and some ones we didn't even mention because I was looking at their full rest of season schedule and I broke it down by you know available in 30% leagues and 20% of leagues so that's part of the mailbag and then some other ones I had to pair a beer with all the pennant contenders some people might be mad at me for the words I wrote down but I think it's all in good fun and people hopefully will get a laugh at it. All right. Excellent stuff.

So again, dollar a month for the first year, go to theathletic.com slash rates and barrels, all written out rates and barrels. So that's going to be it for this episode and for this week. So thank you all so much for tuning in and we will be back on Thursday. Thanks for listening.