Rates & Barrels - The Push for September Roster Reinforcements

Episode Date: September 9, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss an adjustment from Luis Castillo that might help to prolong his peak in 2025 and beyond in the wake of a hamstring injury that could cost him time down the stretch. Plus, they discuss several new relievers in the mix for saves in September, streaming pitchers to consider in the final month, and a few weekend waiver-wire adjustments.  Rundown 4:10 Luis Castillo's Hamstring Injury & Slider Adjustment 9:23 Jesus Tinoco Joins Late-Season Saves Mix 15:50 Nestor Cortes Jr. Follows Clarke Schmidt; Six-Man Rotation for Now? 21:58 September Streamer Watch 33:57 Increasing Trust in David Peterson 42:07 Is There Anything Behind Elly De La Cruz's Home/Road Splits? 45:44 Pitch Tipping v. Other External Cues (Astros Trash Can Banging) 54:50 Where the Money Went: Trevor Story is Back! Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Thursday at 1p ET/10a PT for our next livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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drivers. Add your team to your Uber account today. After decades of shaky hands caused by debilitating tremors, Sunnybrook was the only hospital in Canada who could provide Andy with something special. Three neurosurgeons, two scientists, one movement disorders coordinator, 58 answered questions, two focused ultrasound procedures, 1 specially developed helmet, thousands of high intensity focused ultrasound waves, zero incisions, and that very same day, 2 steady hands. From innovation to action, Sunnybrook is special. Learn more at Sunnybrook.ca slash special. Fuck the rates and barrels, it's Monday September 9th. Derek and Rhyper, you know, Saris here with you on this episode. Get some baseball news you should know as is often the case in September injuries are piling up opportunities are

Bubbling up to the surface as a result of that So we'll take a look at some changes around the league got a bunch of mailbag questions We're gonna get to including one looking at some September streamers some younger starters that have taken on larger roles and their viability For their final starts of the season Can we find some value in that group of pitchers? Got some interesting stuff about Ellie De La Cruz, a question about tipping versus trash can banging. And of course, as we have every Monday where the money went, we'll get to that

later on in the show, you know, how's it going for you on this Monday? It's going well. It's going well. It was a nice weekend. We said goodbye to Oakland Stadium with the kids on Saturday to the Coliseum. And Friday night was a really exciting game. It was one of those games where they each scored one in the 10th and two in the 11th and one in the 12th and was a walk off in the 13th. But it was a fun weekend in the Coliseum. A little bit of like, you know, it's been a lot of negative energy

and I think it's, you know, warranted. But I think to some degree this last weekend, it was like almost normal, you know, just people rooting for a team that's like getting to be more decent and kind of going has a future. But it is weird to kind of root for a team that's here and be like, Oh, they're gonna be good soon. And then be like somewhere else. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think there's a lot to unpack with

that. And we're gonna do that as the season winds down, including A's fans. What do you do? You could be a free agent now. I've made this argument before. You could be a free agent in fanhood at any point in your life. You don't owe the team to you for a lifetime contract. I've moved somewhere new and been like, okay, what's so good?

What's my new team? Yeah, I just think it's one of those relationships. It doesn't have to be lifetime. It can be. You want to be that way. That's fine, too, to each their own. But I think sometimes people choose to suffer in a fan base, and they don't have to. It's really OK to switch.

I will not judge you if you change. Allegiance is a long way. If you do it every season, maybe I'll poke fun at you a little bit for that. But I think everyone at least gets one move, one time, at a minimum. We'll weigh in on that more on a future episode. And this one is forced.

So I do have, I have friends who are long, long time AIDS fans who were, who actually went on a baseball trip. Um, one of my, my best friends went on a baseball trip with his daughter. Um, and they just, uh, they were basically openly shopping their fandom. They just went to different places. They went to Wrigley and bought, you know, a Jersey there. They went to, uh, Pittsburgh and brought a Jersey there. And we're just kind of trying them all out.

Yeah. You need the equivalent of a realtor to just like bring you around each baseball city, like a big tour. Well, you're a little used to suffering. I can tell you're an ACE fan, so I can't just put you right into the realtor. Like a big tour. Well, you're a little used to suffering. I can tell you're an A's fan. So I can't just put you right into a front runner. You can't just become a Dodgers fan overnight.

Let's ease into it. Maybe a little bit of suffering in Pittsburgh perhaps or. And now I have an idea for a series of shorts. Write that down. Series A's fans shopping for new teams. Write it down on the post-it note. Don't lose that post-it note. If you'd like to interact with us on Discord,

we are in the Discord. You can now also interact with other fans, be that A's fans or fans of any of the other teams in the league. You can also ask questions for the show as well. It's a great way to send mailbag questions. You get the link for that in the show description. So let's begin today with some baseball news you should know. Luis Castillo is having an MRI on his hamstring. I saw first that he was having an MRI. I didn't know what part of his body was going to be the focus of that MRI and kind of breathe the sigh of relief when it was his hamstring and not his shoulder or his elbow.

But I think we've looked at Castillo a couple of times this season and even in the broader scope of looking at how his stuff has really evolved over time. He's aging pretty gracefully. I think the ballpark in Seattle is certainly helping that. This could be a problem though for what's left of the season, especially as the Mariners cling to their slim playoff hopes, still technically alive in the AL wild card race especially, and maybe technically in the AL West race as well, but having all hands on deck would certainly be something they

need. Now, where do we go from here with Castillo? I don't think the replacement is necessarily the interesting part of the conversation. It's more like, is it this is this the safe baseline for him? A mid threes ERA slightly better than league average whip, K's because of volume, but not necessarily more than a strikeout per inning the way we'd grown accustomed to in recent years because this feels like a natural decline. And the number that I'm actually more worried about than anything else is the home run rate because especially in Seattle for half of his starts Home runs shouldn't be as much of a problem for Luis Castillo as they have been these last two seasons 53 homers combined in about

372 and a third innings I do think he took a weird step back on purpose this year with the slider Throwing it so much much softer and I think that has negatively impacted his swinging strike rate. As you can see, it's the lowest of his career actually. And he kind of came over to the Mariners and became a little bit more of a four seam slider guy with a sinker change up base. So he can be a bit of a chameleon where he can change depending on the batter and depending on the needs of the handedness of the batter, the needs, the strengths of the batter. So I do think

actually he can have another better season in him. I think there's something weird going on in the slider this year that hasn't been great. I'm not going to blame the hamstring on it. I think it looks like a decision he made that was, I don't think it was a great one. So I don't know why that decision was made and I'm sure it was made with his pitching coach and I'm sure he didn't just go off on his own to do that. But I would say that I think he can he started to throw the slider harder again and I think he'll get back to where he was and you know I think he'll get back to where he was. And, you know, I think you can project him for like a three, four or three, three next year. I don't think you need to go and change your projections that much for next year.

That's good news. I mean, I think if you see it that way, because I think there's always the risk of falling more into that Jose Barrios class of pitchers where it's usually good, It's not always good. And playing the matchups can be a little difficult with pitchers like that. I think it's easier in Seattle and it's pronounced

with the splits of pretty much everybody in that rotation that the home starts are very safe. There was some chatter in our discord that perhaps for some of the younger starting pitchers that maybe we are too comfortable throwing mariners pitchers on the road, given the discrepancies and strikeout rate and ratios that we see from that group. And having heard that they are definitely considering changing the batter's eye, if that is the source of some of those splits, what if half of those splits go away and those Mariners pitchers aren't as safe at home next year. It's a good question. I also see with Castillo, you know, one risk was, you know, we always had the narrative that like, oh, don't worry about his VELO,

he'll get there and he warms over the course of season. And I think that the risk with something like that is that the warming comes a little bit later and is a little bit less every year as he gets older, right? And you've seen that a little bit this year where 95-7 for the year 96-4 last year 97-1 for Luis Castillo the year before that so The velocity decline is happening right now The one thing that I do like though is that he has has these different pitch types under his hood And he has these different places he can go. I don't think that he will go into full, you know, Barrios mode just yet. So I feel pretty good about his next couple of years.

All right, there you have it. And I think with the contract too, it might be safer to pencil him in than it is to pencil in Gilbert or Wu or Miller for the long haul staying in Seattle. Are they traded or, yeah, exactly, yeah. That's the way I'm looking at Castillo for the keeper and dynasty perspective.

But I like that you're a little more optimistic on the skills front than I am. And if you look at the VELO graphs over the years, that pattern of getting a little more at the end of the season, it's exactly as you described it. Like you take a line over the last three seasons, it's a gradual decline in velocity

the way you'd expect it to be. So it's kind of what aging gracefully should look like, I think, in the case of Castillo. But being able to throw that slider a little harder later in the year has been an encouraging sign. Glad you pointed that out, because I had not noticed that. Got some interesting closers

getting opportunities right now. And injuries are part of that chaos, as I mentioned up top. Kelvin Fauche, who we talked about a few weeks ago, is on the IL and now it looks like Jesus Tanoko is joining the mix as a list temporary closer, but maybe he's actually showing enough to battle Fauche or anybody else. The Marlins might bring in between now and the start of next season for some saves in 2025.

So how are you stacking up to no go to the likes of Justin Martinez in Arizona or Edwin Uceda for the Rays? Luke Weaver is popping up and getting some saves now for the Yankees. Porter Hodge has been discussed a little bit on some recent episodes. How do you kind of look at that cluster? Do you see any standout guys in terms of stuff and opportunity that that make a little more sense than the rest of the field? I mean, I'm assuming that Michael Kopek is is owned in this situation. I think that he's my favorite of the bunch in terms of newly minted closers.

And I have a piece coming up with Sam Blum tomorrow that's going to be about the changes he's made to his pitching mix, this different philosophy and why it works so much now. But it was something that I have a lot of Copac shares because A, he's one of those SP eligible closers that's in a couple of leagues, it's super valuable. And then B, I just always thought the stuff would translate and I think it's translating now and he's on a great team and they're going to give him save chances. So, Kopex is in another group in the sort of, what's the other group, sort of Porter Hodge, Justin Martinez, Heezus Tinoco, or were you speaking specifically of the Marlins? Just looking at this entire group, I mean, I think when you're looking for these late season save sources,

it's a lot of deciding if you're going to either get more opportunities because of just longer runway or better team. Like trying to balance that out is really tricky this time of year. I like Porter Hodge second best in terms of stuff and quality of team and likelihood that he's the closer. The way they're using Nate Pearson suggests that maybe there's something to this starter situation next year. They're using him more in the middle innings for two innings at a time. And so I think there might be something to the smoke around the idea that he might be a starter next year. Um, and so Hodge looks really safe and the stuff is great.

The only little wrinkle I have is that I didn't want to start him this week because of Colorado. He's going to Colorado, but, um, yeah, yeah, I think he's good. You know, Dennis Santana is in this mix. I think Dennis Santana is on the lower end, just because they have Chapman and Bednar that can get right at any moment, you know, and Santana's stuff is inferior to all them. Tanoko is my favorite probably in the Marlins pen. I just don't know how many situations they'll give him. So I have Justin Martinez, closer to Porter Hodge as a big stuff guy, good pen. With Justin Martinez though, there's been a little bit of struggle recently and

there are other options in that pen. And so that makes me a little bit more nervous about Martinez versus Hodge. So I guess I would rank them COPEC and just just in a general sort of, you know, free agency, who should you pick up off of the wire? I would rank them Copac, uh, assuming Ryan Walker's gone. So Copac and Walker up there, hodge, uh, above Martinez to Noko right there by himself in this interesting, yeah, just pick them up. He's probably the guy.

There are some other guys, they're not going to give him any opportunities. And then I think Dennis Santana last. I don't know. Anybody have missed? I think Weaver is the other name. Weaver skills. Weaver skills look identical to Tinoco's in terms of K and walk rate so far this year.

The ratios are almost the same. ERA in the low threes, with below one. Kind of remarkable how similar those two guys are statistically anyway. But I think with the Yankees, I have a really hard time getting a read on their intent. Are they comfortable using Weaver all the way through September and possibly deep into October? I mean, of all the things Luke Weaver could have turned into in his career, Closer wasn't necessarily something I thought about with him at the beginning

of his career. I thought he was going to be a wide arsenal starter and kitchen sink guy that could at least be effective for a long time as a starter, but he's really taken to short reliefs, having a great season. So maybe this is like the second chapter of his career. And we're talking about Weaver as a guy that could be in the mix next year too. He's at a club option with the Yankees. Clearly the love for Clay Holmes is fading a little bit. So maybe this is a better opportunity short and long term that I'm giving a credit for, even though I've been into Weaver in leagues with Soulds and like auto new all season long.

This is the first time we're having him in a Roto league has actually made a lot of sense. And I think he's got to be the favorite for me. And one of the things you'll see with Holmes is, you know, the stuff plus is high, but it's it's really centered around his breaking ball. And if you look at the stuff plus on a sinker, it's 80 this year, which is not ideal. And so if you run through the other options, the guys who have holds in that bullpen, you see the same sort of thing. Jake Cousins high stuff plus, but it's all in the break ball. 79 on the sinker for Jake Cousins.

He has four holds. Tommy Conley is, has a great change up and a pretty good slider. Both of those keep his stuff plus high. His three holds, his stuff plus on the sinker is 90 on his four seam is 58. So none of those guys have good stuff plus on their on their fastballs. And I think that's just something you need from your closer. It's like sometimes they're going to need to throw a fastball and try to throw it by somebody.

I mean, just look at what Chapman's done with bad command his whole career. He's just had great stuff on the fastball and it's served him well, even into, you know, late into his career. So most of these guys, you know, Tim Hill, it's kind of a funky guy. It's not a guy I think you want closing. Um, and, uh, Mark Leiter Jr. I, it's just not, not my, so I don't think they have any other, any other options. I think it's actually going to be Luke Weaver and I would put Weaver.

I think ahead of everybody I've mentioned other than maybe Copac, cause it's a great team and I think they're going to settle on him. Yeah, it's definitely possible. I was hoping earlier in the year it would happen, but hey, better late than never, especially if you're in a situation where saves are particularly tight in the final weeks of the Yankees, by the way, Nestor Cortez was in the bullpen piggybacking behind Clark Schmidt this weekend. That's a little surprising. I mean, Nestor Cortez is a good pitcher. He's seventh in the player radar in the last 30 days. I know Brian Cashman in the Yankees front office don't really care what the Fangraphs player radar has to say about Nestor Cortez, but kind of makes you think you mentioned this before the show. Maybe this is a similar to the Jordan Montgomery situation a few years ago, where even though they have pretty good rotation depth, trading Nester Cortez seems like it could create a problem if injuries strike in 2025, but you don't

get the sense that they necessarily want him as part of their mix much longer if they're handling him this way relative to the other options. Fangrass has decided it's a six man rotation. No, well, I mean, maybe they'll go to that, depending on the schedule. Maybe he was piggybacking on Clark Schmidt because Clark Schmidt was coming up and there wasn't sure how many innings he had in him, how many pitches he had in him. And so as Clark Schmidt adds more pitches, maybe it makes sense. The other the other way that it makes sense. One way it doesn't make sense is I think that

Garrett Cole is clearly the best pitcher on this team. Right. And by going to a six man, you may cost yourself a Garrett Cole start that you would have otherwise had. Same thing for Luis Hill, we're like those two are probably the best two starting starting guys. Why wouldn't you just do something where with a six man, it's very obvious Luis Heal would get one more start if it was a five man rotation. You know, he would be we would get a start on the last day of the season, maybe one of those last days, and he might be the difference between winning the

division or not, right? However, if you say, well, we're going to the playoffs either way and Garrett Cole is, you know, just now sort of coming online and even now still doesn't quite have the same stuff that he had last year, I'd rather not spend a lot of Garrett Cole bullets and Luis Gila is running out of innings. You know what I mean? I don't necessarily want to spend a lot of those bullets on the regular season. We'll just let the regular season, the bats decide

our pitching is good enough and this way we'll have more innings out of Heal and Cole, maybe better innings out of Heal and Cole in the post season, which might be worth more to us than necessarily winning the division. So I could see it going to six man rotation. If it doesn't, uh, and I think holding Cortez is a great idea to find out if they are going to six man rotation.

They go to six man rotation. He gets Boston at home, Oakland on the road and Pittsburgh at home. So maybe that first start isn't amazing, but the next two would be in maybe in your head to head playoffs for Nestor Cortez with great starts so worth keeping Cortez if you can to find out what happens and then the deepest leagues may be worth keeping Cortez because he may steal some wins from Heal and and and Schmidt coming in in the third or fourth or whatever. Yeah that's a really good point and if you look at the way they are lined up if if they keep it as a six man rotation,

I think that would mean Garrett Cole is basically their Saturday starter, each of the final three weeks of the season. And if they were to be in a position to not have to play in the wild card round, then they can sit in the last start even. Yeah, they could have the option to do it. And even if they had to use them, that he'd still be back, I think before the end of the wild card series, he least be able to pitch the last game of it.

So there is like a calculated like here's the scenarios that could happen. We got a couple of off days. They have flexibility with all six of those guys healthy. They have two off days the next two Mondays. So they could also skip and skip Cortez on that way. Yeah. A lot of different ways that one could play out but just an interesting to see him following because he's he's a good enough starter to just be a starter in most cases. Yeah we had a little mini debate about you know I was making a

reference to Jordan Montgomery where I feel this is very similar where they developed a guy you know from inside it's a success for their player development both of them Jordan Jordan Montgomery and Nestor Cortez, very much a success because not a lot of sort of draft capital and stock, but credible major league starting pitchers that have had some really good times in the major leagues. And yet the Yankees don't seem to value them too highly. I mean, they traded away Jordan Montgomery to get Harrison Bader because I guess they

didn't think they were going to start in the postseason. And the way they're treating Cortez now, Sid says they're not going to start Cortez in the postseason. They don't see him as a postseason starter, which means he could be traded anytime, you know, and we've had a little mini debate Cortez versus Jordan Montgomery. I think I'm taking Cortez. Yeah. He's just got weirder stuff. So it's like a weirder, you know, I know the VELO isn't great, but the VELO isn't great for Jordan Montgomery either.

And Cortez has like a almost unique fastball. It's a, it's a cool fastball. In fact, it's like similar to COPEX. It's just eight miles an hour slower. Just, yeah, just a lot slower. And we're talking about Montgomery closer to peakacs, it's just eight miles an hour slower. Yeah, just a lot slower. And we're talking about Montgomery closer to peak Montgomery, not present Montgomery versus Cortez. Just looking at their body of work within the Yankees organization, I think Cortez has just been a level better. And that's a really good picture.

Again, that's why I'm so surprised at how things are going as far as that usage. But it's nice to have six starters available in September. A lot of teams are scrambling Throwing guys out there that you know, we're at double a a few weeks ago, right? We've talked about the angels and some of the things they've had to do Even the Orioles who they're fighting and not you know, they they're not sitting pretty when it comes to their rotation I did see some news that you know, Grayson Rodriguez is some news that, you know, Grayson Rodriguez is headed towards a late return.

I think I'm still holding him in one league. I'm just like, I want to get that one last start out of him. And it's going to be like a four inning start, you know? But they're the one I'm reading between the lines. It's going to be it's going to touch and go like if you really need the Grayson Rodriguez roster spot, I think you can let it go mostly. If you're shopping while working, eating, or even listening to this podcast, then you know and love the thrill of the hunt.

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Must be legal drinking age. Well, if you're doing that, you're probably doing it for a relatively unproven starter, but that's the way it works in September. So we got a lot of great questions in our discord, one from Barnesworth for today's show. I'm wondering if we could discuss some of the young arms and streamability down the stretch. So that includes Zevi Matthews, we really liked upon arrival, at least by the stuff metrics. I know it's been a couple of bumpy starts for him more recently. Guys like Jack Leiter, who just had 20 swings and misses against the Angels recently. And then even Cade Povich, who's getting an opportunity in part because of the Grayson Rodriguez injury that you just mentioned, having a slightly different pitch mix this time around with the Orioles.

So who are you looking at kind of in this next group? Guys that maybe have been rostered in 15 team leagues, but have been more fringy for more shallow formats that are up and down on rosters and might actually be available to help with a handful of quality starts here down the stretch. It's a lot. It's a lot.

I think it's just really schedule and format dependent. If you're in the auto new points league, you just can't give up the homers. It becomes a lot for me about parks. There are times when I would love to start Dean Kramer and there are times I do not want to start Dean Kramer, you know, and so, you know, they're like, you know, parks are a big deal. You know, if you're in a quality start league, how deep can they go is a big deal. And if you're in a weekly league, is it a to start week or not, you

know, so it's kind of hard to talk about these players in any uniform manner because it's so different for your for your schedules. But, you know, somebody that I that I'm trying to pick up right now is Jack Leiter. And it's it's just for that Seattle start. You know, it's a it's a guy with great stuff whose command has gotten a little bit better and who will at least strike out a lot of guys and I'm hoping for, you know, five and two thirds in a win with a lot of strikeouts. Uh, you know, the Seattle offense isn't great.

That's one where the park, the stuff, you know, all of it lines up in a way and the affordability, the availability, you know, all these things have to line up and they have to be good enough, but available and fit into your lineup and do the right things for you. So Leiter's been somewhat, I've kind of circled. Yeah. We've talked a little bit about how he's been able to make those adjustments, just seeing him get through five innings and consecutive starts at the big league level and having the six Ks against the angels with all those swings and misses. All of those things are big steps in the right direction for him.

The numbers of AAA were finally good. I mean, there's been no point since being drafted where you look at a stop for Jack Leiter and say he did really well there by results. At least you could say at AAA this year, things were much, much better. 351 ERA, 126 whip, 110 Ks in 77 innings. I mean, that should pour it over to a useful back end starter at the very least. And I think you definitely take that chance against the team like Seattle. So, I mean, you like Edward Cabrera, you know, Denver Cabrera is on the road in Washington. I feel like Jack Leiter is Edward Cabrera is on the road in Washington. Hmm. I feel like Jack lighter is Edward.

He's more similar. It's very similar, but I would rather would I have Jack lighter, you know, against Seattle or, you know, Edward Cabrera in Washington. I think I would rather have Jack lighter is the decision I made. What are you doing with Zebby Matthews right now? I mean, I think it's pretty clear the twins need to see what he can do. They need to use him for these next several turns, it appears, right? So the schedule is, I think, home against the Angels is a start this week. So even if you've been worried about him, you probably want to throw him out there in that matchup.

He's got a two step both on the road if the calendar holds next week for Cleveland and Boston. And then in his final start of the regular season, he'd have the Orioles at home, which is a pretty tough assignment. But I think at least for the sake of the Angels start, that'd been a go for this week for me in a lot of leagues. And then the two step, you might be playing the volume game, you'd probably use them just because you need innings

and a shot at a couple of wins in a lot of instances. But what do you think has been the issue early on here with Zebi Matthews? Like why is he running a ERA north of seven at this point with an arsenal as good as what he's shown and with control that was just absurd like we talked about when he was promoted? Yeah, I don't I don't really know other than the in the one game that he got blown up. He didn't get to his slider very much and I'm wondering if that just means that you know because he only pitched two innings is he very much like an established the fastball guy like could he you know throw more of his mix right from the beginning. And keep them off balance because he does have that four pitch mix and none of his pitches I think is necessarily like a

Elite pitch right so I think he needs to be kind of a 25 25 25 guy where he just keeps them on On their on their heels by always mixing it up And yes, that means they maybe get two more looks at the cutter before the fourth inning or fifth inning But he may not be a guy who goes seven anyway, he's only going five in any of his starts So if he's only going to go five then don't worry so much about what's gonna happen the third time through the order against The guy you may never see him a third time So rather mix it all up from the beginning that would be my suggestion to him as a pitching coach as Somebody who has to use him for fantasy,

I'm gonna use him in this angels game. That two step is just a little bit terrifying for me in terms of those offenses in those parks. And I get it. If your ratios are all set, then maybe throws Ebby Matthews in Boston and Cleveland and just be like, I'm hoping'm hoping to get, you know, 10 innings, one win, you know, he's going to give up six or seven.

I mean, couldn't he like, what do you think he'll give up? I think he'll give up six or seven in those two starts. Combined. Yeah. I mean, that's, that seems reasonable. As long as he gets you 10 innings and a win with it, maybe you live to tell the tale because maybe you get nine or 10 K's to go along with it as well. I mean, so much of that damage came in one bad start.

It's all it's all it takes when you've only got a handful of opportunities in the big leagues. So even if it's a little more good command, good control with kitchen sink stuff, I think the arsenal is wide enough where I would tend to trust it. I'm more in than out despite that, that meltdown. And we'll learn a little bit more in this angels start. I know it's against worst competition, but if he can dominate the angels,

then you can feel a little better about competing against the guardians and Red Sox, I feel like. Yeah, yeah, I think that's a good way to put it. As far as Cade Povich goes, I know you weren't really high on Povich out of the box, pitched really well at AAA, got a chance earlier in the season Got sent back down. He's come back to the Orioles throwing his curveball a bit more

Getting away from the sinker a little bit I think he's also added some sweeper usage to like 17% on the sweeper when we saw him back in June and July that was closer to like 10% in both of those months So the new version of Cade Povich, does that slightly increase your interest? I mean, being on a good team and being in a good home park, that certainly puts him in that streamer bucket more often than not, but has he done enough to be more

than just an on and off the roster guy for you? No, he's very much matchup dependent. Today at Boston, I am not throwing him. And that means that even though he's a two starter this week, I'd have a hard time throwing him in a two start weeks, even though the second one's at Detroit. So if you're in a weekly league, he's sort of out for me. I think I'm that worried about that at Boston start for me.

If it's a bad fastball, it's not, there's no real elite secondary. He's trying to kitchen sink it, but he doesn't necessarily have the elite command of other guys. So I'm not really into it. I love that at Detroit start. If it was just that at Detroit start, I would take it. And he's got versus Detroit later. So if you're in a daily league, there's two Detroit starts in there that I'd probably start him for. But that at Minnesota to end the season is sort of 50 50 for me. So it's a big no. And then two yeses, uh, that are not timed correctly for weekly leagues, you know? So it's kind of a guy that if you're in daily leagues and you're looking at that

at Detroit start, yeah, don't, don't hesitate, take that. But you know, at Minnesota would be kind of a dividing line where I'm not sure I would even use them for that. Yeah, that's gonna be just a, what's the situation that last week? Is it all hands, just throw anybody you can or protecting ratios, that might be a scenario

where I would steer away from that last start from Cade Povich. We are getting a lot of questions about A's starters and they're getting more mileage out of some guys than expected. Osvaldo Bidot has been very good and someone that has probably made his way up to a lot of 10 and 12 team leagues in the last few weeks.

He has a two step this week at Houston at the White Sox. I get the sense that most people would say the second start is so good that they'll take the risk with the first one. So in weekly formats, I expect him to be in a ton of lineups. But where I think there's more uncertainty and opportunity for rostering guys, Mitch Spence gets a start against the White Sox on Friday. JT Gin is in the mix here, too.

JT Gin, probably Gin. What do you think about these other guys? The A's have been throwing out there in their rotation? I mean, is there something there, at least in these these layup type matchups or when they're at home? Like how are you trying to use that group behind Bido's sort of earned our trust a bit more over the past month? I prefer them at home. I think the only one that I really want to start away from home is probably Bido. He has two good above average fastballs by stuff plus. I think,

you know, it's just a question. He's a little bit, you know, got the hair up his nose in terms of command. Some games the command is not there and some games it's there. So you're just hoping that the command is there for that at Houston game should be good for the White Sox. He's got the Yankees at home, which is a tough matchup, but at least he's home. And then he's at Seattle at the end of the season. So I'm a guy who's probably starting him in three out of those four, maybe all four of those. So I like him the best.

Joey Estes is a guy I like at home because he's a command artist. And I think with the, you know, if you just suppress balls and play with a command artist, that's a really good combo, think because he's not gonna walk guys and then the park will keep him from giving up homers by being too much in the middle zone so Joey Estes unfortunately though only has Texas left but he ends the season well so if you if you're if your playoffs or your your season goes all the way to the end, uh, Joey Estes versus Texas at Seattle is a pretty good ending.

Um, that's, that's what I like for him. Spence is a guy I only want to start at home, bit of a kitchen sink guy who's figured out a cut fast ball and some of it works, but he just makes me nervous. Um, you know, anywhere but home and his his only home start that I really would circle is versus Texas September 25th. So I'm actually in a tough spot where I've had Spence for matchup play all season, a lot of leagues, and I'm considering dropping him just because, you know, I'm looking at that at Chicago White Sox start for Spence. I'm like, if I don't start him there, then I might as well drop him and then see if I

can even get him back at the end. You know, it's like he's really the dividing line for me in that rotation. Yeah, seems completely fair. And then the other schedule and where they're pitching is a big, big part of whether or not you can actually trust a few of those A's options in the final couple of weeks. I did see David Peterson getting up into the 70, over 70% range for roster ship on CBS, but there might be a handful of shadow leagues where he's out there. You were mentioning him earlier in the year as someone that was

making some adjustments and changing up his arsenal just a little bit. What do you make a Peterson at this point? He's running a sub- three ERA for the season. The whip doesn't necessarily go along with it, but this is by results, the best version of David Peterson that we've seen really since his rookie year back in 2020. Yeah. One thing that I like and that stuff plus really likes is that he is going to the sinker more than the four seam. He's always had this weird, uh, four seam shape that wasn't ideal. And I'd like that he still throws both of them but I like that he's been upping the sinker usage because I think it's his better pitch. The other thing that I can say about Peterson is that as a lefty he's, you should probably,

I don't know what the number is but you should probably bump up his stuff plus a little bit. Lefties are rarer, so batter see them less often. And what we found is that we're going to have to make an adjustment in the offseason where we just put our finger in the model and say, lefties get plus two, you know, just to make it line up the way that it should, I think. So, you know, if you're talking about a guy with 96 stuff, plus below average locations and a extremely good pitchers So, you know, if you're talking about a guy with 96 stuff plus below average locations and a extremely good pitchers park that pitches in, you kind of get the sense of where he's

at, maybe a little bit ahead of the Pence line for me. But somebody that I prefer to start at home. Let's see what the schedule says. He's got at Toronto. I think I'm okay with that one actually. It looks like they're running a one, two, three, four, five, six man rotation right now with Blackburn coming back. So there is some danger that all of these matchups will change, but versus Washington, I'm taking versus Philly is borderline. At Milwaukee to end the season is

borderline. So I think he's somebody that I want in the short term that I may drop for the last week of the season. Yeah, that last weekend series in Milwaukee could be a series in which, you know, maybe the Brewers are still jockeying for a first round bye or maybe they're resting guys because their fate as the three seed's been determined. Maybe the Mets are playing for their lives

just trying to get in to possibly play the Brewers in the first round. There's a lot of scenarios that could unfold in that series. Right, I wanna start Peterson in that Milwaukee season, in that Milwaukee one if they're resting Churio and like resting people, you know what I mean? Like they could last two games of the season. Right, give it a couple guys a day off, yeah.

Yeah, it's definitely possible. That's the funny thing about the last week of the season. Like, we just don't know what it's really going to look like from a who needs what perspective at that point, who will still have something left to play for, because that could end up being a layup sort of start for David Peterson, depending on the circumstances. It'd be really fun to like, you know, target the Dodgers, you know, for the last series of the season with a pitcher, because you're like, you know, target the Dodgers, you know, for the last

series of the season with a pitcher because you're like, hey, they're that's a veteran team that they want Freeman's finger to get better, you know, whatever it is, like they'll rest everybody and they'll be in. But what if right now it's a one game difference between the Dodgers and Phillies for best record in the end? What if they care about that? And they play their starters for two out of the three games and all of a sudden you're like, oops, you know, or even the last game of the series,

what if they start them for the first three innings for whatever standing season seeding reasons? So it is one of those things where you kind of like you're tempted to want to target those things. But things can really change still between now and then that, you know, might make it not as great as you thought. Yeah.

Well, and that series, that last Dodger series of the regular season is On the Road at Coors. Oh, OK. Well, so you're not going to get mileage out of Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner. You're not going to do that. But you know, you could change the names of the teams. Like you could target the Guardians. That might actually be a good one. But you know, but the Guardians are like a young team.

So do they really need to rest everybody? I mean, I don't know if they would. Ramirez, maybe Jose Ramirez doesn't just like a day. It's just probably a day here. They're probably is what they're looking for. We've talked about the the downside now the downside of the rest. But that is actually reasonably tight too. It's two and a half games behind the Royals.

So yeah, I think the, the Phillies might be one, you know, maybe they're locked in as the two seed by that time. Right. And you're throwing some Washington starters at home against Philly that you wouldn't normally throw like DJ hers is maybe safer if the Phillies play out positions locked in for that matchup, right? So that's kind of stuff you're really looking at. And they have older guys where, yeah,

Schwabr would take a day off, probably Harper would take a day off, yeah. Yeah, I think there's a lot of ways it's still gonna play out, but that's what you're looking for anyway as far as finding some clues that might give you a few extra streaming options in the final weeks of the season.

I was gonna say, is there anyone else that you've been eyeing up? I was starting to think about Hayden Birdsong for this week, but he's got two at home, but Brewers and Padres, two teams that need every possible win right now. So that made me gonna dial back on my interest a little bit with Birdsong. Alex Cobb's dealing with a blister,

and otherwise I think he's going to start against Tampa. I love revenge games. Um, I think he's always been an underrated guy. So, you know, Alex Cobb is a guy I've circled, you know, the, uh, brewers. Have an interesting schedule where, uh, I'm totally into some of their guys in the short term, but then I think I'm not in the long term.

How does that work out? So they've got the Giants this week. So I've picked up Savali and Colin Ray just for these Giants starts. And then they've got Arizona, Philly, Arizona, which I don't want any part of for Savali and Ray types. Maybe Myers gets one of those starts for me, but mostly, and Peralta gets every start for me. But otherwise, I don't want the Savali, Ray types in those.

But then they finish at Pittsburgh versus the Mets, and I feel like those are times again where I might want Savali. You know, Savali right now is lined up for at Pittsburgh on September 26. I like that. So you know, Savali is a pickup that has a lot to do with can you nurse him through that Arizona Philly Arizona situation without having to start him. Then I like him as a sort of a person in the schedule.

They've also made some changes to him, which I detailed my story just about how Savalli's now throwing a really distinct slider and sweeper in it, you know, might be the better collection of breaking balls that he's thrown in a while. Yeah, just by basic results it's down to a 388 ERA, 127 whip for the ratios during his time with the Brewers spanning 10 starts. Almost a strikeout per inning, still has a little bit of a home run problem. That would be the underlying skills flaw that you're most worried about. So the park factors might be the other thing you're looking at with those Savali matchups.

But yeah, pretty tough stretch of schedule for the Brewers. They try to finish off the NL. Yeah, like I don't want to throw Montas in that in that in that nine game stretch there. You want to throw Montas against the Arizona Diamondbacks right now? I don't want to throw anybody against the Diamondbacks right now. No, we finally learned our lesson. It haven't Smith five months hitting grand slams off of Justin Verlander. Yikes. We'll get to Verlander a little bit on our Tuesday show.

It's been a bumpy stretch for him since he came back off the IL. But thanks a lot for that question, Farnsworth. Hopefully that helped a few people out as you try to think through some options that weren't previously on your radar. If that's Dan Farnsworth, what up, Dan Farnsworth? That's Dan Farnsworth? I don't know if it is. If it is, what's up, dude?

It's been a while. It's probably not Kyle Farnsworth. No, no, though, if it was, what's up, dude? It's been a while. It's probably not Kyle Tharnsworth. No, no, though, if it was nice hammies. You know, actually, he's I think he's like an MMA fighter now or something, like something that makes a lot of sense when you saw tracks. Yeah. That definitely tracks. Got an interesting message here about Ellie Dayla Cruz, and Ellie has home road splits that are a little different than you'd expect.

This came from Jay Lee in our Discord. Did not know that Ellie's hitting way better this year in away games at home. Away, 275, 352, 509 for the slash line and a 136 WRC plus, 12 homers compared to 11 at home. You would think that Great American Ball Park would be boosting up that home run total at home a little bit, right? You'd expect that slash line at home is two 48, three 33, four 45.

He hasn't been bad, but I don't know. Is there anything to this is just a small sample, just a one year blip? Because as Jay Lee said to us, like if Ellie can just reap the benefits of his home park, like just at a normal sort of level, that would bump up his production and make him even more enticing. Like he's doing better in the non-great American ballpark environment.

So any thoughts as to what might be behind that? Yeah, I'm tempted. I mean, my first reaction is just, this is noise. One year splits are the type of thing that, um, you, uh, you shouldn't put too much stock in, especially when they run counter to what they are expected to be. So like reverse platoon splits with a righty that hits righties better than lefties or something like that, or a lefty that hits lefties better than righties.

You know, you shouldn't believe that, especially in one year splits. Um, one thing I wanted to check real quick is his bat speed home and away because what if he was, he's swinging harder on the road, um, because he thinks he has to hit it harder to make it go out 74, eight at home, which is amazing. Bat speed, by the way, 75 three away. I was right. bad speed, by the way. 75.3 away. I was right. It's weird.

That's also something that this, that this can be like, like a hitting coach should like, could I realize that and be like, dude, just swing as hard as at home too. Like why not hit homers at home? I could be botching the math completely here, but he's a switch hitter, right? Are you looking at all swings from both sides? I'm just wondering if he said more from the side that he swings harder on the road, like if it's worked out that way. Cause I think his left-handed swing is faster than his right-handed swing. If I remember correctly, I will limit it to lefty left-handed swings, left-handed swings away. Let's see if there's still an effect here. Left-handed swings away 76.1. Maybe this will help your argument. And left-handed swings at home.

Oh, do it. 76.1. It's the exact same. Yeah. Okay. No, no, no. But that, that helps us, right? He, no, that helps us. He has seen more of the wrong hand on the road. Or I don't. Right. That's what that's what's happened. Would be random. I think it's the way that's the way that's from a randomness.

I think if he's swinging the same, I thought maybe there'd be some sort of like mental effect where he's like he's in New York. He's like, God, I got to swing real hard to hit it out of here. You know. I mean, you never know. But my thought was switch God, I got to swing real hard to hit it out of here. You know, you never know. But my thought was switch hitter always got to double check some stuff with switch hitters because things are different. If he's swinging the bat just as fast on the way at home and away. And we found that it looked like he was swinging the bat faster away.

That means that the platoon situation is different on the road that is at home. Thanks a lot for that message, Jaylee. We had one here about pitch tipping and then kind of looking back at the Astro's trash can scandal, which we're not going to rehash the whole thing, but this came from Ryan in our Discord. And Ryan writes, when the Astro's trash can scandal came out, there was data push suggesting that the banging of the trash can didn't help. Are these ideas consistent between pitch tipping and the idea of what trash can didn't help. Are these ideas consistent between pitch tipping and the idea of what the Astros were doing? Is there a difference between the external

recognition, like the banging and hitter picking it up with animal brain instinctive recognition? Right. Like, I kind of wonder, like when we look at this, like the samples from the Astro stuff were also small samples, relatively speaking, right? So it was hard to know what effect there was. But I think most reasonable people would agree that if you had an indication of pitch type ahead of time, that's generally going to help you in the long run. So I don't think that even when that study came out,

I think there were a couple of players that were worse with the bangs or something. That was the narrative that was going around. It's like, well, think about it in the long game perspective though. Like what would really happen if you continually had that information? I think pitch tipping sort of tells us

that having that information, no matter how you receive it, probably is extremely valuable. Maybe it's easier to react to it with animal brain, just the instinctive recognition of the cue of a glove being tipped a certain way or seeing something before it happens. Because a lot of that processing,

when a pitch is being thrown or even pre-pitch processing, is just reacting. It's not as easy to break that down. Hitters will just often say, I'll just do it. They can't really explain what's happening. They just, they've seen the pattern. They've seen it so many times. They just handle it. And I don't think there's inconsistency in these things. I think they're just they're different cues. Well, it's also I dispute the characterization that that didn't help them much. Right. It was based on like certain splits.

It was like splits on pitch types that were. Outlined by the banging. Yeah, but we found some real differences when it comes to process stuff. So I think what happens is, you know, knowing what pitch is coming can help your process, but then there's so much noise in what happens after that, that maybe the splits, you know, don't show that they were amazing and with these whatever situations, you know what I'm saying? So like, if you look at the process, though, you see, and this is backed up, Jim Albert did some work where he was looking at,

you know, the piece that Jason Stark and I did. And he found a lot of the same thing. So this, I'm quoting Jim Alpert's numbers, so you don't think that I'm just quoting my own numbers. And this hasn't been sort of verified out there. So Jim Albert says that the swing rate, you know, just in general, dropped from 47 to 45% and 43% during the time they were cheating. So swing rate goes down. And then he shows, you know, we talked about low breaking balls, because if you know that a breaking ball is coming, right, because from the trash can banging, and then you see it's low then you're just gonna less likely swing out because you're you're you're you're expecting breaking ball and you can think. What's a little bit low but low break ball amount you know and what we find is the swing rate on low breaking balls went from thirty nine percent to thirty three point seven percent. rate on low breaking balls went from 39% to 33.7% from 16 to 17. And it stayed that way during the during the sort of trash can banging phase. We also find that their contact rate went up,

you know, and the contact rate on swung pitches went up in particular from 79.6 to 82.5. And it stayed there during their cheating phase. So yes, there, if you kind of look at some splits and you kind of try to, you know, look at the bangs and did they hit a home run or whatever, then you can say, um, I'm not sure that this was super helpful for them, but if you look at the process, is it better to not swing at low breaking balls as much? Yes. Is it better to make more contact when you do swing? Yes. So like in terms of process, when they knew things were coming, they improved their process

and that's why they did it. That's another piece of the puzzle. It's like, why do you think every baseball player is searching for tips? Why do you think they're at the front at the top, you know, talking about it? Why do you think they spend so much time looking at scouting reports and trying to decide what's coming? Because there is value in anticipation. We talked a little bit on this show, too, about having different swings. So if you have an A, B and C swing, I was just talking to to Brent Rooker about this and I was like, how are you so good on on on sinkers this year? And he's like, I

don't know. But you know, there's there is a role of anticipation where, you know, people really wanted to throw me sinkers inside early in the season. I anticipated that and I was able to put wood on it and go to the opposite field with my sort of scoopy swing. I said, if you swing your sinker swing, and you get a four seam, that's not good, right? He's like, nope. And he's like, that's why everybody in the league

is throwing three fastballs now. So, you know, anticipation, especially as value goes up, I think the value of anticipation and guessing correctly goes up because you have to start your swing so early to honor the 99 or whatever, that you have to say in your head, okay, this is, I think it's going to be slider.

I'm going to swing. Oh, it's not slider. Check swing, whatever it is, you know. Yeah. I mean, even just thinking about your example with the low breaking balls, like just spinning on those pitches changes count leverage. Then you get something much more hittable later in the count too. So it has a massive impact.

Right. So if we focus on each pitch split, you may not capture that, oh, we just put them in a better count situation to do something better later. So yeah, I think generally it helped and, and, um, it's just hard sometimes to, we also, it's really hard, you know, sometimes to prove when things start and when they end, this is one that was steroids. It's like, you know, sometimes to prove when things start and when they end. This is one that was steroids. It's like, you know, like we can't really do a study on the effect of steroids on players because we don't know when they started.

We don't only stop. Even they get popped, they come back. They could still be on it. We don't know. I've just always wondered, you know, like if you get some gains from steroids and kind of just break through a new plateau in training and then you get busted for the roids, but you've made yourself stronger

and you just maintain the gains. Like you kept the effects, didn't you? Like I've always assumed you've been able to do that. Yeah, and then there's this idea of like sort of using steroids in the off season and then sort of not using it as much during the season. Right, yeah. It's always been there.

Always been there. You know, good luck studying that. We need a control group to take steroids. Right, you guys over here. You're not gonna get the steroids. You will get the steroids. Good luck. Yeah.

You know, this sounds like the Peter Thiel, you heard that he's doing this thing where he's having the Olympics for all the people on Royds. They're like, Peter, can you also play some baseball on this scene? Do some baseball on this. Well, he could probably find some retired players willing to jump in on that. Right. I mean, why not? I guess, except I might have implications about what you did when you were.

I guess if you're not headed to the hall. Right. I mean, why not? I guess, except it might have implications about what you did when you were, I guess if you're not headed to the hall. Right. Yes. It'd be a certain, certain level of player you're going to get. You'd probably get Jose Canseco to do it. Almost certainly at this point. Thanks a lot for that question, Ryan. I mean, I don't think that was a question designed to like exonerate the Astros or to just like kick them either. No, it's the question of like, how similar is that?

And those cues are different for sure. I think I would absolutely acknowledge that there might be some people that find the external cue distracting. Like that could be a thing that doesn't work perfectly for everybody. Yeah. I actually think that is possible. Yeah. It's also because if you think about it, like you're at your batting, how

often do you, are you using your ears to think, anticipate the pitch? So now you're asking someone, you're asking someone, you're asking something different of your head than you've ever done where you're like, Oh, listen for the bang and then decide to swing. You know? So like it may have, may have helped them some and also hurt them some because now all of a sudden they're thinking about their ears instead of their eyes. Yeah. I think that's very reasonable, very possible that it happened like that

for a few, at least a few of those guys, but we'll never know for sure. It's one of those questions. We need a Jim. Someday. So we got a quick, where the money went on our way out the door. This was Trevor Story week. It's nice to see Trevor Story back on the field at the end of this season. I almost look at this as just the, yet again, an opportunity for him to show that he's healthy, to go into an off season feeling normal, and then to

possibly be a hundred% going into 2025. And it's hard to imagine a three-year stretch with a new club that could go worse from just a health perspective. We knew there were some issues with stories armed back when he signed that deal, but like all of the worst case scenarios have unfolded and it's been a long time since we've seen him at that 2020 level, 20 home or 20 steel level, which came in 2021, his final season with the Rockies. And now I'm just wondering,

how much have the skills deteriorated during all the time that has passed while he's been rehabbing back from all these significant injuries? Yeah, I mean, we'll get some slight little hints of it in terms of, you know, would, you know, right now he's hit a ball 1026 like that's not that's not helpful. But, you know, if you can hit a ball 110 again before the end of the season, that'll give us a little sense of, okay, the bad speeds back. We can now look at bad speed. We can't look at bad speed last year yet, but at least we can look at maybe the bad speed increases over the last couple weeks, you

know. So we can see see that come online. We'll get some hopefully get some full on sprints out of him. See some sprint speed because we want to know how much he might steal next year, you know. And the last I think you know to some degree you want to know what his swing strike rate is. It won't be in a huge sample, but it'll give you some sense of what his strikeout rate will be because he's had times when he's been lower, way lower and way higher. You know, what, what do you want to project him at a 26% strikeout rate for next year or 28 like his career or the sort of 30 plus he's been sporting in

Boston. So those are the things I'm looking at and I am still considering him as you know I have a four dollar auto new share where maybe some people think I'm crazy but I might keep him because I think he would go for you know, six dollars in the in the auction next year and Having a second shortstop and when my first one I think is Jeremy Pena like yeah like this story is the guy that maybe like does it and is a lot better or Pain is my guy who does it all year and I cut story for a free agency money You know what I mean? Like in these certain situations I could see buying shares of story next year. I could see him Coming back and I think defensively

It looks like it's still there So I think he might be the shortstop for them next year And if not, like there's still an opening at second Yeah, they can find a spot for him and given the contract. I mean they will so long as he's healthy I started to look at story going back to last season now as a speed first sort of play. I think he's still going to be relatively inexpensive because of all the missed time. So look at it much more as like an MI than a clear like starting shortstop from a fantasy perspective. So more in the 15 to 20 range at the position and a little bit more of like a long

shot sleeper type, you know. Yeah, like a guy that you're still going to draft another shortstop or middle infielder behind because if it doesn't work out, you don't want to be chasing on the waiver wire. But I think, you know, enough skills that there's still a reason to take that chance. I think you're right on that threshold in auto new four bucks right now and having him bump up to be like, do I want the roster spot and the flexibility or do I want to just see what happens at a very fair price for Trevor Story? Any big ads for you? I mean, the market was like Reid Detmers, Johnny DeLuca, Cade Povich, who we talked about earlier. I think we talked about Darvish and Schmidt before the weekend. We didn't talk about Rhett Lauder earlier as part of that September streamer group. He's looked good in his first

couple of big league starts. His fastball shape is not ideal. I think he's someone where the sinker might be better than the four seam. And he's been trying to do the four seam. And I think it's OK. But I don't know if I see an ace. Yeah, it's been good results with shaky process stats.

I mean, decent number of walks. Not a lot of swinging strikes in the very early going, but it's only 10 innings. So this is more of the early audition for 2025. I think there's a lot to like about Rhett Louder, even though that fastball is not ideal right now. I think you have to just sort of take a small leap of faith that they'll get the right adjustments in place

going into next season. I think the cost will be relatively low as well, given how little we'll see of him this year and with the home park. I think it's enough of a deterrent until you flash above average skills where you can generally find pitchers like this in a hitter friendly ballpark in the bargain bin. Yeah. Wait, who are you talking about? Louder.

I don't think Louder's going do enough to and ridiculous ADP. That rotation is not in good shape in terms of, you know, knowing when who's going to start where. So it's a little bit hard to even play the schedule game with him where you're like, oh, yeah, because I wouldn't rather start him at home because it's just a tough part, you know. But I don't know exactly when he's going to be home because they're playing with our rotation like nobody's business. I was I was looking at Johnny DeLuca trying to tell the story of what's happening.

A little bit of more pull, a little bit more pull fly balls and just generally playing better recently. And you know there's still this weird thing where if you look at his walk rate his strikeout rate and his power It's the batting average of balls and play that doesn't fit for DeLuca And if you could just get that to 300 and he's projected to poorly there, too, and I don't know why But nobody he hasn't done great batting babbitts in the minors either to Luca so there's something about what he does Maybe he's too many pop-ups or something, but if he ever had a 300 babbit he could have a 240 batting average and Like 1530 home runs and steals over the course of a season, you know

So I've picked I've picked up some DeLuca shares. I'm dropping Ramon Larianno. I knew it was gonna start happening Kellnick is a lefty Larianno has already started to seed starts to Kellnick again after a nice hot start there. And I picked up Seth Brown. He walked off two games. You know, you get on my radar. The schedules are right.

They go away from home. And then Joe Dell got hurt. So, you know, I had I had to find something. And then you Darvish, I got you Darvish for 11 bucks out of a thousand in the great, in the TGFBI, the great fancy baseball invitational. I don't like every start he's got left on the radar, but I love at Seattle.

I might start in verse Houston, depending on how he does in that Seattle game, then verse Chicago White Sox. And then, you know, I don't need to start him on the 28th against Arizona. I'm back. So You know new Darvish looking like get three out of his last four starts And I think just compared to that September streamer segment we had earlier I mean more faith that Darvish will put the pieces back together quickly than some of those young guys will make the adjustments

That was like getting the rust offs start the last one, I think, you know. I think so. I mean, it was only two and two thirds against the Tigers was a nice spot. Sixty three pitches. So you can imagine maybe seventy five or eighty this time out. And then he's kind of back into that normal range for those last couple of turns. So, yeah, it totally makes sense. Eleven bucks. That's the classic September price. Right.

No one has money left. You know, hand seems to have dropped out. Everyone's just trying to patch up holes. That's the classic September price, right? No one has money left. You know, handfuls have dropped out. Everyone's just trying to patch up holes. That's what it was for me this week. I didn't have any real big gets. I just had to replace Jeff McNeil in the league and McNeil, Adele. Uh, I picked up, uh, Dennis Santana for Doval. Doval's pitch movements and extension and stuff.

He's, he hasn't changed him. He's, he's not, I think it's Ryan Walker for the rest of the season. So is it Ryan Walker next season? Yeah, I think there might be, uh, some reporting that needs to be done between now and then in terms of what, how Deval shows up next year. You know, so it's just, it's hard to take the job away from Ryan Walker based on how well he's pitched all year. Yeah. You know, so it's just it's hard to take the job away from Ryan Walker based on how well he's pitched all year.

Yes, but there's also a little bit of a Velo jump. So I kind of want to know what's he what's he sitting next year? You know, fair question. Any other big wins from the weekend? No, I had to drop Fochay. I had to drop Jeffrey Spring. So I got Andre Palante for the double tap this week and Savalli for that San Francisco game.

And I had to go back to the Alex Verdugo well because of McNeil. Verdugo actually projects decently this week, but I feel like at any moment they could pull the plug and be like, no, we're calling up Jason because that's what everybody in New York wants. And I don't know why they're not doing it maybe it is the projection I was even thinking about this with my son we were talking about it like I think you want I think that what they're thinking is we need to we need to win the division we need to make the playoffs

and the projectable guy the guy with the better projections right now is Burdugo right like that's the guy who's got the better projections. And he even works in some ways behind Judge, because he makes a lot of contact. So Judge can get there on, Judd and Sodor are on, and Verdugo can theoretically make a lot of contact and put the ball in play and score that way, right? It's not really working that way. And I would say that the, the best case scenario is Jason Dominguez is killing it. So there's a balance between wanting to win the division and what you would do best in the postseason. I think that's happening.

Cause you, if you want to win the division, you kind of stick with the boring known entity, but if you want to go further this postseason, I say you take Jason now, put them in for the next two weeks and see what you got. See if you want Jason Dominguez starting for you in the postseason right now, you're not learning anything about Jason Dominguez. I would have made the move already. I think I've made my feelings about Alex Verdugo very clear. I, the projections aren't even clearly better anymore.

They're very close. Well, yeah, look at, just look at how well Dominguez is playing right now. And then tell me with a straight face that you don't think he can do the same things Alex Verdugo's been doing all season long. Well, one thing he can't do is make contact, though. So anyway, projections range from 99 to 101 WRC+. ATC has 106 Verdugougo. That's kind of crazy, but 99 to 101 generally.

And Jason, uh, who is striking out more, um, but not actually that much in AAA this year is projected from 93 to 101. But it's a, it's a, it's an on off switch. Half the projection system is 93, the other half 101. So you're right. It's getting closer. Just make the switch already for the sake of everyone, not just for Yankees fans. Do it for all of us. We all want to see Dominguez out there instead.

You could probably still play Verdugo like, you know, just damn Dominguez is like, gets more of the starts. Yeah. Give them three out of four when they're facing righties. That'd be fine. Anything's better than just keeping on down the same path with Alex Verdugo. We're going to go on our way out the door. A reminder, you can get a subscription to the athletic. It's $2 a month for the first year at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels.

Find Eno on Twitter at EnoSaris. Find me at Derek VanRyper. Find the pod at rates and barrels. And again, you can join the discord with the link in the show description. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening. Bye!