Rates & Barrels - The Wild Card Races Are Heating Up!

Episode Date: September 10, 2024

Eno, Britt and DVR discuss the return of Jasson Dominguez for the stretch run, Kumar Rocker's upcoming debut with the Rangers, and the Mets' continued presence in the NL Wild Card race. Plus, they'll discuss the Twins' untimely tailspin, the Royals' rise under J.J. Picollo, and how the current struggles of Justin Verlander might shape the Astros' playoff rotation plans.  Rundown 1:19 Jasson Dominguez Rejoins the Yankees 8:05 Kumar Rocker to Make MLB Debut on Thursday 13:30 The Mets' Continued Presence in the NL Wild Card Race 26:04 Can the Twins Disrupt Their Tailspin? 39:39 The Royals' Rise Under J.J. Picollo  55:41 Justin Verlander and the Astros' Playoff Rotation Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us Thursday at 1p ET/10a PT for our weekly live episode with Trevor May! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper, Eno Sarris & Britt Ghiroli Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Visit continue.yorku.ca. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Tuesday, September 10th, Derrick Riper, you know, Seras, Brichiroli here with you on this episode. We are discussing promotions for Jason Dominguez and Kumar Rocker, news that broke after we finished Monday's show. I think we willed the Dominguez promotion into existence though, so we'll take partial credit for that. Interesting enough, they left Verdugo in the lineup. Yeah, I know it was a Stanton day off Monday, but I think the usual plan will be

the one we outlined on Monday. More Dominguez. A lot of Verdugo to the bench and yeah, a lot of Jason Dominguez playing in a corner. I would get the NL wild card watch, the Mets, making things more than interesting in that race. We'll take a look at how that's happened and how the Mets stack up to potential playoff opponents if they are able to secure one of those spots

in the final weeks of the season. Could talk about the struggles of Justin Verlander and whether or not he will be a part of the Astros playoff rotation if his current form is the form we see at the end of the season and the AL wildcard race so we have a jam packed show today. Very ambitious I think would be the way I would describe us. Let's get the quick promotion stuff done because Dominguez as I outlined yesterday the projections have closed in on the Alex Verdugo projection.

Usually you look at a rookie or an inexperienced player and say, okay, there's a lot of swing and miss in the profile. Projection says 210, 220 average, low 300s OBP, a little bit of power, and a high strikeout rate. And that's not as good as what you get from a veteran like Verdugo, but Verdugo struggles and Dominguez's success at the top levels of the minor leagues have pushed those numbers closer together. And this just feels like a way to give the Yankees a little bit of a boost as they try

and wrestle away the AL East from the Orioles, but also to give Dominguez a window before the postseason where they can decide in, even though it's a high stake situation, whether or not he's an upgrade over Verdugo in the games that matter even more than the ones they're playing right now. Right. So I think this makes all the sense in the world. And, and Britt, we've seen players come up in key spots. Dominguez debuted, of course, last year and got hurt. So it's not his major league debut, but he's got very limited big league

experience. What is your expectation for how this is going to play out in the final weeks of the season? Well, I like this because you look at their other options and this is the reason we've been calling for him to come up, right? Why not bring him up? It's not like Verdugo was lighting the world on fire. You know, Aaron Boone said to reporters yesterday,

he's going to play a lot, which should be the plan when you call up a guy like this. He is eligible to play in the postseason because he was on their 40-man roster you know at that date at the end of August so I like this move I think sometimes the playoffs is all about these people you don't expect giving you contributions and he could definitely be an X Factor we know Aaron Judge is otherworldly We know how good Juan Soto is but just imagine if they get a little extra contributions from a guy like Dominguez Right, like he could come up in big spots. He probably will this is how the playoffs works, right?

It's always the the lesser names to an extent. I think this is a good move for the Yankees They have a little distance their game and a half up on the Orioles as we record this episode They have a little distance. They're a game and a half up on the Orioles as we record this episode. The Orioles have plenty of problems. Can't really consistently win. Maybe the Yankees, this helps them kind of reel off enough breathing room to take the American League East, which is what, you know, really they've been trying all along. Teams try to set themselves up for the playoffs. The problem here with the Orioles and the Yankees is neither team has ever created enough space to say we're going to win the ALE. So a guy like Dominguez, I think, sends the message that this organization wants to win

and they want to win now. And they're willing to try different things, which sometimes I think fans are just maddened by the lack of activity, by sticking with Verdugo, by wondering, you know, why we are platooning certain guys. So I think if you're a Yankees fan, you're pretty excited that the guy they call the Martian is back up with the big league team and figures to get a real chance. And the last time we discussed this team that doesn't ever get any attention, I think at that point, Anthony Rizzo was still on the IL. Dominguez

was still in the minors and Jess Chisholm was hurt. Chisholm has since returned, Rizzo has since returned and now Dominguez is up. So a lot and Jazz Chisholm was hurt. Chisholm has since returned, Rizzo has since returned, and now Dominguez is up. So a lot of those questions we were asking about the supporting cast behind Judge and Soto could have an answer. That's a huge possible lift for the Yankees to me. That's something that makes them a lot more dangerous if their lineup has that extra length behind Soto and Judge. Yeah, and one thing that I really like too, is that in their trade for jazz chism, in their development of Austin Wells, um, and now putting Jason in center,

I think that they've not only added an element of youth and speed and defense to this team. Um, they've done it in up the middle in key positions, key positions with Volpi at short at being such a great defender now at least the role players are all playing. You know great defense at important positions on the field and then like what brits saying that sort of unexpected contribution. of unexpected contribution can be their offensive stuff, but you're really shoring up defense and speed and you're, and you're adding an element to a Yankees team that it's historically been a little bit older, a little bit more plotting, a little bit more, you know, we need the homers to win kind of thing. This is a little bit more of a dynamic offense that can do different things, uh, and really pick it.

So, I mean, kudos to them because I think one of the hardest things to do in the two timeline world where everyone's trying to compete and, uh, and develop is give your kids enough chances, um, to establish themselves. And this year they managed over the last year, plus they managed to give Volpe and Wells and hopefully now Dominguez enough chance to establish themselves as major leaguers while they're young, while the team is competing. That is, I think a tricky thing to really pull off. And that's probably why this has taken so long.

I mean, people have been yelling for this Jason Dominguez thing for so long. The problem is Verdugo is a credible veteran, projectable, you know, there's no risk in putting Verdugo out there, it seems, but you know, the longer he does what poorly, the more the numbers kind of change. So, but I think that this is, this is a good change for the Yankees. And it'll be, it may end up being a big deal because they're really looking for somebody to step up. If it's not Glaver, if it's not Volpe, if it's not Wells, they need a cleanup hitter. They need somebody behind Judge. And they need to extend that lineup a little bit

beyond Judge and Soto. And I think Jason, the Martian, he can do it. What we saw in the first game was speed. He stole third and scored kind of a crucial run at the time. It didn't turn out to be a crucial run in the end, but it brought the game tighter and it was all legs. Also having the flexibility with Dominguez being capable enough center fielder.

You don't have to run Judge out there every single day. Take a little wear and tear off of Judge at select times. Did you know he's poorly rated? Yeah, but they at least trust him more than they would trust Verdugo or anybody else. No, Judge and Soto and Verdugo are poorly rated. Yeah, but they at least trust him more than they would trust Verdugo or anybody else No judge and Soto and Verdugo are poorly rated. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yes the average Jason's numbers are in really small samples So right it's I think there are questions about some of the some of the things we've seen from him coming through as a prospect Defensively, but could end up being an upgrade given the alternatives judge

I think his defense and center field was something we discussed previously, too. It's just like. He has the ability to play it. It doesn't mean it's a great idea. That's sort of the main thing. He might be their best option in a non Dominguez lineup to play that spot. That's probably the way they've landed on that so far.

Do you want him running the most out of every outfielder? Isn't it is like a type of question. Yeah, absolutely. The other promotion coming Thursday, Kumar Rocker, who has looked fantastic coming off of Tommy John surgery, 18 Ks against one walk in just 10 innings at AAA, 29 to 3 strikeout to walk in AA this year in 19 and two thirds innings, getting a nice soft landing spot that Mariners lineup has struggled throughout the season. You've looked at the numbers as far as the stuff plus model on Kumar Rocker and there's

quite a bit to like here. So it's a great audition chance for him to sort of get broken into big league level for a handful of starts before I assume taking over a regular spot in this Rangers rotation for the next several years. I would imagine any projection for this Rangers rotation to begin 2025 has rocker in it. Yeah, he throws the death ball. You know, we all love, we all love pitches with weird names and a fun acronym. So he throws the death ball 85 miles an hour straight down.

So just like a little baby curve. And there are some questions about his fastball shape he may end up being more of a sinker guy he has kind of a sinker shape on his fastball but he throws the ball on average around 98 miles an hour so even if the shape is not amazing on his four seamer if he throws at 98 and locates it as he has been then it won't matter so much because they'll have to honor the 84 mile an hour death ball and the sinker and the 98 mile an hour four seam so I think he has what it takes to succeed and the minor league strikeout and walk numbers are

are crazy good crazy good he's like striking out 40% of the guys he sees in the minors this year. Yeah, there's a guy named Paul Skeens who we might've heard of. We had, we talked about his fastball shape. His numbers aren't as good as rockers, just to put it in perspective. His minor league numbers were not as good as rockers, just to put it in perspective of what is going on,

because the Texas Rangers didn't have to call him up, right? Actually, he forced their hand by putting up such ridiculous numbers. And to me, what this says is that the Rangers want him to get the experience now because he's going to hit their ground running next year as part of the rotation. If they didn't call him up this year, you know, you might've seen some spring training, getting his feet wet, maybe some up and downs in April, early May. They don't want any of that. They want him to get out some growing pains now. Um, and he certainly earned the promotion, but I think that the Rangers want to pencil him in, like we said, it is part of that rotation and have no plans or

assumptions that he's going to take a step back. So that's really what this means, because this is a full year before they have to make a decision to even protect him. So this is a, this guy's been kicking down the door. He hasn't been shy about the fact that he needs to be up here. And so it's really kind of cool to see. I know Skeens has gotten so much attention in limelight, rightfully so. But like I said, this guy has been better and it will be really interesting to see how he fares, not just in this few weeks, but how he takes these few weeks, these reads on big league hitters into next spring training. Right. Uh, there's so much valuable expertise. And this is why the big, you know, it's a little bit of an older baseball thing where

you call up guys for September call ups, you know, with the expanded rosters, uh, because that is really valuable to get these reps at the big league level in September. And that's what the Rangers are getting. Yeah, and it's good to think about, you're right, about what this rotation will look like next year. Right now, I think Iovaldi has played himself into the ability to decline the $20 million player option he has and try to get, you know, a last, you know, two, three year deal or maybe not even the last. I mean, the guys, some guys are pitching into their forties, but, uh, get a three

year deal instead of just taking the one and 20, if he does that, then the only pitchers they have under contract, um, at the major league level for the rotation are DeGrom, Malley, and John Gray, who is currently has a neuroma in his foot. So that's just three veterans that have not been really that healthy. You'd kind of want four more pitchers. So I think Jack Leiter is going to be important for them next year.

Maybe as their sixth guy, Kumar Rocker looks like he's, you know, slotting as high as third or fourth already as a, as a rookie next year. And you'll probably see them go out in the free agent market and try to get one of their specials, which is, you know, kind of a, a one or two year deal with a veteran that they think can bounce back. Yeah. I think with the core they have in place, they will fancy themselves playoff contenders again in 2025.

There's no reason why they would tear down what they did coming off a World Series win last year, this year of course, with the injuries they were dealing with all season. We knew there was a possible step back. Still remains to be seen if we get an extension for Chris Young. That was something we brought up a couple of weeks ago. The front office not under contract for next year yet.

Still haven't heard about that. Yeah, his director, his AGM of player development, Ross Fenstermaker too. So I mean, those are two guys that have done some good work in the short time they've been there. It's sort of surprising they're still out there. Yeah, but for a team that doesn't seem like it's getting to the postseason this year,

there's still a lot to be excited about for Rangers fans watching Rocker and the eventual return of Jacob deGrom here in the coming days. If you're shopping while working, eating, or even listening to this podcast, then you know and love the thrill of the hunt. But are you getting the thrill of the best deals? Rakuten, shoppers do. They get the brands they love with the most savings and cash back. And you can get it too. Start getting cash back at your favorite stores like Old Navy, Best Buy, and Expedia.

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around. They've made things very interesting. If you go back to early July, pick July 5th, because I like looking at the fan graphs, rolling playoff odds, trying to find the dips. July 5th, the Mets had a 29.3% chance of making the playoffs. That was actually up quite a bit from some of their valleys in the first half when they were single digits at stretches. It was, it didn't look like a playoff year for the Mets

in the early stretches of the season, but they've been on this gradual rise and played really well basically since late May, give or take. They're up to a 58.8% chance of making the playoffs and they've taken a little bit of playoff share away from Atlanta in the same division and The brave said it's sixty two point five percent right now. So it's still kind of in that back-and-forth

coin flip sort of Situation the diamondbacks just for comparison eighty three point seven percent. They have been cruising They were also in the same kind of range as the Mets. 24.6% playoff odds back on July 5th. Arizona's played exceptionally well over the last two months or so now. So a lot to look at here. And I think the first real question is, how good is this Mets team compared to other teams we're going to see in the postseason, specifically in the rotation. Because I think that's where they entered the year with a lot of big questions. The Kodai Singa injury to start the year left a lot to be desired, I think, in terms of quality. And they have found

a way to make it work so far. When you look at the quality of what they've been able to assemble, Sean Manai has been kind of a fantastic pickup in free agency. David Peterson's a guy we talked about yesterday who's exceeded expectations. They really had a lot of things go better than expected. We know it's a picture-friendly environment, but it's not just that. Luis Severino isn't the old Luis Severino, but he's at least a good starter for them, and he's chewed up a ton of innings, getting to 166 innings through the first five months in change of this season. But I think a lot of people will say against the likes of the Phillies and the Dodgers,

they would be underdogs just based on the pitching matchups alone. Do you think that gap is too much for them to overcome as they're currently constructed? It is interesting because you know, the reason why the Mets, even though they're a game ahead of the Braves and just a game behind the Diamondbacks have the worst playoff odds of the three, is that you know in terms of true talent, how good is this team really? Over at Fangraphs they say the Mets are a 496 win percentage team. So not even a 500 team. They're a team that would go, you know, uh, 1882 kind of deal, um, in a full

season and the Braves are a 561, uh, true talent, supposedly better than the Phillies, um, uh, in that regard going forward, uh, and the Diamondbacks are a 542 team. So, you know, those are those they they're looking at those and they're saying, you know, it is going to be close because there's not that many games left, but the Diamondbacks are going to win more games. The Braves are going to win more games. The Mets are going to kind of go 500, except if you look over the last month,

if you look at the last month, the Mets are 18 and nine. You know, the Braves are 1711 as much as bellyaching is going on over there. And Arizona's 15 and 11. So really anything can happen at a 30 game stretch. If they have another 20 game stretch, just like the one they had, then the Mets will be in on those and they'll be ahead of those other two teams. So, um, that's, that's what's exciting. Yeah.

And I do think that when you look at the Mets as they are constructed in terms of, you know, what their strengths and weaknesses are, the thing that really stands out is that rotation. I mean, the lineups pretty good. I mean, Lindor is doing a lot of the carrying, but as Marte gets healthy, Vientos hits the ball really hard. Alvarez hits the ball really hard. Nimmo's underrated.

You know, it's a pretty good lineup that's covered up a little bit by a really pitcher friendly park. So you know, it's a decent lineup that has some of their numbers suppressed by that park. On the other hand, the starting rotation, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manaya, who's been a revelation with the new arm slot, David Peterson has been all right, and Paul Blackburn. I mean, I think as much as I like Sean Manaya, the best I can give him is like a 2-3 on a playoff team. I don't see an ace here.

But I did do a little bit of research just to put in context like what it looks like to have a World Series contending starting rotation and over the last 10 years the World Series winner on average had the ninth best rotation in baseball and the World Series loser on average had the ninth best rotation in baseball and the better rotation won the World series five out of 10 times. But there's a little bit of a maybe a mini shift going on in baseball because if you remember 2014 and 2015, right at the beginning of the sample, that was the Royals and the Giants.

And they had the 20th and 25th best rotations. If you remember, they weren't about their rotations. They were about the bullpen. Yeah. But what I'm saying is I think they inspired a lot of people to spend more time on their bullpens. And I think that there's been a shift. So if you look at the last eight years and you take those guys out and you say,

those guys change baseball a little bit. everybody has good bullpens now, maybe it matters a little bit more to have a good starting rotation, you might be right because in the last eight years the World Series winner has had the fifth best starting rotation on average and the World Series loser has had the seventh best. So that's that so you of, if you want to go to the World Series, generally in the last 10 years, you want to have a top 10 starting rotation. And right now the Mets are 22nd in that regard. Yeah, there are, but that's World Series versus playoffs. You know, I mean, I know this was, this was a

small bit of analysis done on a little piece of paper, but. I like it. You didn't even use a full sheet. I know, what's up with that? It's very eco-friendly that you're not even using a whole sheet for your notes. It's like your dog ate the rest of it kind of thing. That's, this is what my office looks like. I agree, listen, I think, I don't think we're going to sit here and make a case for the

Mets to win the World Series on one hand. On the other hand, I feel like people sit and try to make sense of the playoffs every year and you can't make sense of the playoffs. Like you just said five out of 10 times it works. That's a coin flip. Yeah. That's a coin flip. Yeah. Even in the even the last eight years, it's five out of eight, the better, better rotation hat one. So. And any front office person you talk to will tell you that nobody has figured out how to win in the playoffs because just like as Billy Beane used to say, yeah, getting there is all you can do. Once you get there, their best team doesn't always win. It's the hottest team. And you look at the Mets and you look at games like last night,, they really didn't have any business winning that game.

And they've done that a lot. They didn't have any business. They don't have any business being the best team in baseball since June something, which is what they are. Jose Quintana has been terrible. If they had any options at all, he wouldn't have been in that room. They would have taken him out of the rotation a while ago.

Jeff McNeil, that injury hurts. You look at the Mets and you're like, how are they doing this? And I think sometimes it's really tough to quantify. Lindor is having a terrific season. Manaya has been great as well. Severino, when they needed him, has come up big. I think Edwin Diaz being back to Edwin Diaz has certainly helped for that psyche because when Edwin Diaz is blowing save after save, the Mets just don't have the ability to recover from that. You saw that a little bit earlier on in the season. I think they're a pesky team.

I think they're one of those teams that if they get in and they get hot, look at what happened with Arizona and Texas last year, right? Was Texas a better team on paper? Do they have a better rotation? Of course they did. However, we see this all the time. So I feel like if you're the Mets and you're David Stearns, you're thinking like, if we get in, we could win a series.

We could win a game or two. And that's how this whole thing starts. That's how the boulder starts moving. So I think the Mets have been a fun team to watch. I don't think anybody expected them to be relevant. You know, if you go back to May, that they would be relevant here as we sit here on September 10th talking about the fact that the Padres in Arizona have played so, so well, means that the Mets have had to earn this, right? When sometimes I feel like we sit here and we

talk about, oh, nobody wants the last playoff spot, all this mediocrity. These teams have played really well, which I think is nice and refreshing, right? Whoever goes out of that NL wild card, like those, those teams have earned that right. We aren't seeing a lot of backing in this year, which has been nice. The Padres have been one of the hottest teams in baseball. Arizona has been very good. An executive said to me about Arizona, last year they were lucky, this year they're good, which really kind of illustrates what you're dealing with. If you're the Mets, it would be easy to fall off and be seven games back, eight games back, oh, a good season, they got to 500. But really I like what Carlos Mendoza has done

in his first year as manager, surrounding himself with more veteran coaches to really kind of balance out the fact that he was a new manager in a big media market. I think the talent that we didn't see and that we are questioning why they weren't better last year, we're starting to see some of that. And Mark Vientos has had a terrific year.

He's been a guy who I think they weren't sure what to expect from him. And he has been, Lindor obviously has carried them offensively, but Vientos has had some good hits. And Jesse Winker has been an interesting pick up for them where you kind of forget it happened, because there were hundreds of moves that didn't really matter, it seemed like. And that's one of them that you're like, wow, this guy's had a bunch of really

big moments for the Mets, and he's barely been on the Mets for a few weeks now. So I do like what they've done. I do think there's a lot of momentum. And I think the NL Wild Card race has been really fun, which is nice, because there are years where it feels like one of these teams that gets in is not going to be very good. I don't know how you guys feel. I won't feel like that this year as it's presently constructed because these teams have played so well. I don't know if I have a lot of years

where I look at the last Wild Card team in and have a vibe of like, oh, this team's bad. Why are they here? I think that can happen with the expanded field playoffs. I just don't know if it's happened yet. It's a great call on Viento. He's been their best hitter by WRC plus and tons of power. I think he's exceeded even the more optimistic projections

that anyone could have had. We've known he's had power. The question was, would the swing and miss offset it to the point where he couldn't be a regular, but he's been great. And a lot of times we talk about the number of players a team relies on that are above average with the bat. The Mets have a lot.

Fientos, Lindor, Alonso, JD Martinez. The Winkers kind of a semi-regular. Nimmo's in that group. Starling Marte has been right about league average. So they've got seven regulars basically that are in that group. And a few part-time guys like Jose Iglesias who've been really good. The McNeil injury is a bummer, but I think Iglesias can do most of the things that Jeff McNeil can do.

They could get a little more mileage out of someone like Francisco Alvarez at the plate. He's dangerous, at least has some thump. So I think the lineup is the thing that could make them a problem come October. This is a team that's hit more home runs than the Phillies this year. I didn't expect that from the Mets, especially having to play in that ballpark. Their seventh as a team in WRC plus every team ahead of them is a pretty clear playoff team. It's the Yankees Dodgers, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Padres and Astros. So they're in great company as far as what they're doing, at least on the run

production side, it's just going to be whether or not they can out hit their pitching or that the pitching is game planned and just effective enough at the right time to get the job done. It could be a lot better staff, I think, if it got slimmed down. A playoff version of this staff is probably better than the full season version of the staff.

If you're just basically running Severino and Manaya out there in the bullpen game, or figuring things out like that. Peterson on a short lease, you know, that sort of stuff. You know, I think that it's a lot better. You do, you threw a little throwaway comment in there that you don't always look at. You don't usually look at the last wild card and wonder how good they are. I love the twins and I'm not really talking trash on that, but I do want to put

the NL wild card race up against the AL wild card race in one way, which is. The third AL wild card seems to be a team that doesn't want it. Exactly. In the last 30 days, Seattle's 11 and 15, Boston is 12 and 16, and Minnesota is 11 and 17. Now, that's not necessarily the true talent. And I know people go up and down, but it is just weird to have these two things go up against it where, you know, these, the AL wild card seems like somebody's going to slink

their way into that last spot as opposed to the NL wild card where someone's going to surge their way into their last spot. So, you know, it's just, it's, I'm not, I'm not saying that so it's a bad team. I do think there'll be the, there'll be one of the wild cards, but right now they're not playing like a great team. And you know, there's, there's some rumblings in Minnesota about that right now. And, you know, there's there's some rumblings in Minnesota about that right now. Let's get to the A.L. side for a minute, because Rocco Baddelli showing rare frustration over the weekend. That will happen when you score two, two runs in three games against the Royals and get swept.

That'll happen. Aaron Gleeman had a good column on the athletic breaking down some of the problems. The twins recently during this slump have been a lot less disciplined. Third most in chase rate outside the strike zone. So just like whiffing on the fifth most swings overall, opposing the third worst strike out to walk ratio, that's basically like a three or four week snapshot. I think that defines what happens during a slump.

I don't think it means it's a permanent, this team's going to be undisciplined to play it the rest of the season. But the timing of your worst stretch. It does a lot to shape the narratives about your team, like playing your worst baseball at this time of year raises a lot more questions than having a bad run in June and then bouncing back and playing really well in July and August. So I would look at this team and say, you know, they were 63 and 40 from late April through mid August until this run started. They look like they're in control.

The AL Central, the roster is still that core group and they've been missing some key players, right? Correa, Buxton, Max Kepler on the IL. I think having a combination of those guys back would go a long way. I know Royce Lewis has been in a slump. That's probably going to change at some point between now and the end of the season. So I think it's just the question of can they weather the storm? There's something, I think

it's intangible about a club. And sometimes it comes down to the coaching staff, the manager, the guys in the room, how do they handle the adversity when things are going wrong? Are the twins going to find a way to put the pieces back together and just get back to being the team they were for most of the season? Or will this continue to spiral on them? They're six and 15 in their last 21 after dropping Monday's game to the Angels.

So the impassioned closed door meeting speech didn't have an immediate effect against the team that will not be in the postseason. I tend to think those things don't really have a... I tend to think that like if you're a player and you're watching your manager lose it in a meeting, on some level you're rolling your eyes. Well at some level you're just like what's the solution? Like does being yelled at actually help anyone? I don't know. Why didn't the twins do anything at the trade deadline? Help me understand this.

How do you go to your trade deadline and only add Trevor Richards? That was the only move they made at the deadline. And I think that would be, of all the things that have been going wrong for them, I would criticize them more for their trade deadline than for their last 21 games, because that was their chance to patch up the roster and be ready to be a legitimate October contender. Maybe they're a little gun shy after giving up real assets for Tyler Malley and Chris Paddock and all the guys, all the pictures they've traded for basically have been hurt. Yeah, maybe and maybe they're up against their ownership imposed spending limit. Maybe that was a factor, but for whatever reason, they were very quiet at the deadline

and they should have done anything, anything to upgrade this roster. But Britt was having a reaction about the rah rah speech. What was that? Well, no, I just don't. Well, I mean, as someone who was covered beats, was in clubhouses for days and days and years and years, I think you pick your spots.

I think for Rocco Baldelli, like you're so tired of facing the media and saying, we'll go get them tomorrow. And then you go out and you watch your team play. Like they played in that Royal series was embarrassing. If you were a twins fan, embarrassing, they got shut out two of the games. They scored two runs in the other one and everyone goes after the pitching, which is fine. But when you score two runs and the league average is over four runs, it doesn't matter.

Like you have to score, you have to hit. Aaron Gleeman did a great dissection of what's gone on with the hitters. The exit velocity is down, the rate of contact is down, the quality of contact is down. This is over the last month. This is the entire lineup. I don't know, you guys would know much better than me if this is something that is common. Are they all tired? Are they doing too much work?

I'm not sure. But I think with Rockabye Deli, you don't make that kind of a speech hoping that guys are like, oh, okay, I'll try now. We weren't trying the last month. No, you do it because you're at your wits end. You want everyone to know that you're tired of talking to the media and saying, these guys will turn it around. You want to light a fire. And you're also hoping that some of the veteran guys in there, you know, because the manager can only do so much, will stand up and

say, this is unacceptable. We have to get better, you know, because it really is the veteran players who set the tone in the clubhouses. Managers really aren't in clubhouses very much. It is very much the player space. So you're hoping to get something out of these guys. That's what I was saying. It's like, if the manager comes in and is yelling, then you're like, well, why are you in my space yelling at me? It's kind of like, it was me.

I'd probably be like, okay, okay. But with Rock, Guy like Rock the Ball, Deli doesn't get upset. It's worth something, right? It's not Ozzy Gian yelling because he yells when he orders breakfast, right? It's not Ozzy Gyan yelling, because he yells when he orders breakfast, right? It's like you pick and choose your spots. It is the change of tone.

I think that's a good point as far as just trying to convey a different message to your club, whether or not it's effective, I think is still an open question, but I do think it's out of character for Rocco, based on everything I've heard and seen from him, just to see that doesn't seem like his style. So I think that speaks to the level of frustration and who knows, if this season doesn't go the way that the ownership group expected, maybe they make a change

at manager. That's a possible thing. I don't know what that actually does to make the product on the field better. We always wonder what the impact of a manager is. I never got the sense that Rocco's tactics were so bad that it was costing the team games. Maybe people that watch this team every day have a lot of specific criticisms of Rocco Baldelli that they will send our way as soon as we release this episode.

But this team should be better, no matter how you slice it. And I think it's the combination of things going wrong at just about the worst time. And even with all of that, the amazing thing is, using that July 5th comparison point, and it was just over two months ago, the twins' playoff odds have actually increased since July 5th.

They were at a 76.8% on the 5th of July. They're at 79.1% today. It's because those other teams that I mentioned just sort of fading into oblivion. I mean, we've talked about the Mariners, you know, not being able to hit. And we, you know, we've talked on this show about the news that I've heard that they are actually

considering changing the batter's eye. And so, you know, we've, they're obviously doing some real soul searching about their batting program there because the pitching program is so good and you know, their, their rotation is so good to be ashamed to waste this rotation, you know, um, which it seems like they're going to do again. So I think they're, they're doing some real inward searching when it comes to, um, you know, batting, I don't know, you know, some real inward searching when it comes to, um, you know, batting. I don't know, you know,

the Red Sox have had such a tumultuous season. Like I think traditionally, you've been like, can we get somebody to pitch here? And then they were like the best pitching staff in baseball for one month and then back to being terrible. Um, but you know, that one month sort of gives you the idea that like, maybe these arms aren't so aren't so bad. And like, you know, that one month sort of gives you the idea that like, maybe these arms aren't so, aren't so bad. And like, you know, what, like, I think there is a little bit of like, what now in Boston to some extent, and maybe the, what now is just, Hey, ownership,

spend some money on arms, bring us some, some outside free agent arms in to, to bolster what we're doing in here because we've done some good, but it would be better if we also spent some money on the rotation. So that's, that's my guess for what they do in the off season is try to get a big picture. Yeah and in there see I feel like the a.l wild card is the epitome of. This team should probably shouldn't be here this year because look at if you look at it Minnesota you know Kansas City Baltimore okay Boston is only two games over 500. There's 73 and 71. Detroit's right behind them. 73 and 71 theoretically still in the hunt, but then you go to the NL and these teams that are in it, Arizona is 80 and 64.

The Mets are 79 and 65. There's more stratification there for sure. The fringy 500 team is the Cardinals and they're 72 and 71, but they're six and a half games out. And the, the, the guardians, Royals, twins and tigers are like, I, I ran the numbers at one point. They're like 30 and five against the white socks. Yeah. That's the other thing people were pointing out. Twins fans were saying if you take the white socks out, the twins are a lot,

what are the twins? Against the white socks. Yeah. Because how much does that pad things, right? take the White Sox out, the twins are a lot, what's the twins record? Can someone look that up against the White Sox? Yeah. Because how much does that pad things, right? How much has playing the White Sox helped them and maybe covered up some of these blemishes during some of their hotter streaks? I don't know. That is something that kind of came across on my feed and I was curious, have they beat

them pretty much every single time? Yeah, against the White Sox they are 4-0, 7-0. Let's see, we got a couple more here. 9-1, 12-1. Yes, against the White Sox, they're 11 games above 500, which means that against everybody else, they are basically 500. Yeah, that'll happen when you have a really bad team

in division. There are 12 games over 500, and there are 11 games over 500 against the Whitesucks. So that is pretty interesting. And like, yeah, the Whitesucks should be a gimme for every team, but they're not a sweep for every team. The weird thing too is that like offensively, the twins have always been like a leader in

barrels and hard hit rate. And this year they're now like 11th and 12th in those things. And you know, it actually, there might be some funny sort of process thing that happens where they get yelled at and they all swing harder and their barrel rates go up. Can't wait to see the results of that. Maybe you could yell somebody into swinging harder. Maybe they'd be like, crap, you know, things are gonna change, I better swing harder.

But I'm gonna guess you can't, but maybe. I would guess that some of that has to also do with backfilling the injured guys that would have hit the ball harder. Yeah, it's probably a big part of it. Bucks that hit the ball really hard. Correia hits the ball pretty hard. So it's another situation, though, when you look at the entire season

and you look at the twins alongside the Phillies, they have the same team, WRC plus the Phillies, they hit two more home runs. They strike out about the same, just under 22 percent. The lineups are more similar than you'd ever expect, even with some of the underlying process things being different. So yeah, this could be one of those scenarios, Britt, where the team that gets this last wild card spot absolutely backs in and they're one of the first teams we look at and say, why this is why expanded playoffs are bad.

This team shouldn't be there. But if the twins start playing better ball in the next two to three weeks, they won't feel as out of place. I mean, Korea comes back. Royce Lewis comes out of his slump, you know, like there's, you know, Buxton can, there's definitely things that can happen in the last couple of weeks that will change the scope of this lineup again. Who do you like to actually get this spot though?

Like between the twins, the Red Sox, the Tigers, the Mariners, I know the Tigers are playing really well over the last six weeks or so, but the Tigers feel like the one that doesn't belong yet. Like the Twins, Red Sox and Mariners, at least all made sense going to the year as teams we thought we'd see in October. The Tigers, I think were one notch below them. I thought they could be a team on the rise. Yeah, but they also serve as a little bit of notice for the Mariners and Red Sox, which is we thought we were better than the Tigers, but then Tigers are now in our mix and the Tigers may have in some ways, uh, at least a similar up arrow than to us, you know, in terms of like putting together, um, you know, some good stop top end pitching plus developing young players in the lineup.

Like that's the Red Sox want to say, well, we have good young players in our lineup. Yes, that's true. So the Tigers kind of, you know, so if you want to make the playoffs next year, you gotta, you gotta beat the Tigers as well as, you know, all the other teams you want to try to get in. Do you think the run differentials of these teams will end

up leading us to the actual winner of the final wild card because by that, the Mariners at plus 46 are the best of the twins Red Sox Tigers so far. Is that one of the tie records? Well, no, I just think in terms of like, what's going to separate these teams right now, there's a three game gap between the twins and the field, but they're all close enough where it's possible that any one of those three teams ends up getting the wild card. And also the Mariners, because they pitch so well, I know they can't hit their way out

of a paper bag and obviously had issues. But if you look at it, they actually would project to be kind of a dangerous team because they can pitch. They'd have to win games one to nothing. But kind of dangerous. Twins could be dangerous if we get the twins that we get in the middle chunk of the season. Not the start of the season twins, not the last month twins, the middle chunk of the season, very specific middle chunk of the season twins, they could be very good.

So I don't know, I know we talk about the Royals a little bit, but I do think it's important to note that what they have done has been really impressive. I mean they lose Vinnie Pasquettino and people think well this is it this was a nice story for them you know. One of the best hitters outside of Bobby Witt Jr. who if Aaron Judge wasn't doing the stuff Aaron Judge was doing we'd be talking about Bobby Witt Jr. a lot more. I think that's getting buried a little bit. What the Royals have created that culture under JJ Piccolo. Really is impressive. This seems to be the tip of the iceberg, I think, for them.

And it's really been fun to watch. They put on a clinic again over the limping twins over the weekend. They're just not going away. And I like the moves that they made this off season. They obviously went and spent over a hundred million dollars, which bigger teams say we can't spend money. The Royals proved the Royals can, the Royals can do it. You can do it. And then at the trade deadline, unsatisfied, they made little tweaks.

Right. And even when they lose Pascuatino, you know, they pick up a bunch of guys for basically nothing like Tommy Fam and those guys have helped them. So I really, as much as it is Minnesota has been floundering, I also want to give credit to the Royals who have really hung around and weathered a decent amount of adversity. Yeah, I love I love their like deadline and post deadline. It's Tommy Pham, Paul DeYoung, Yuli Gurriel. That's a, you know, those are credible veterans that are, I would say probably between, they're in that they're not valued by the market.

That's why they weren't spent, nobody spent money on them in the off season. That's why they were available because they're in that sort of just short of league average. They're like in war terms wins above replacement terms are like one one and a half win guys, you know, maybe maybe two. Those are not the type of players you kind of want to sign because you're always looking to be better than average, you know, especially if you're paying somebody real money. And so, but that means that they're available and, you know, he needed that in a couple spots, and that made them a lot better. But also just speaking to, you know, what they've done, generally, you know, I think that they've changed some of their pitching development in terms of the Brady Singer coming to camp with two new pitches.

Seth Lugo coming to camp with nine pitches. Mike Lorenzen. So, a couple of years ago, we talked about on this, on this, uh, on the show about a Royals pitcher that was told to stop throwing a sweeper and he stopped throwing his sweeper and he sucked for a while. And then he just started throwing a sweeper and nobody noticed. So that was the Royals of two years ago. The Royals now acquire Mike Lorenzen from the Rangers where the team doctor says, you shouldn't throw sweepers.

It's bad for your, it's bad for your elbow. We did a piece, Ken Rosenthal did a piece about this. Keith Meister, he's the team doctor. They don't really throw sweepers in, in Texas. Well, guess what they do with Mike Lorenzen? They say stop throwing on your regular side or throw your sweeper. And Mike Lorenzen has been better with, uh, Kansas city than he was with Texas in terms of underlying numbers. So that

sort of change can happen pretty quickly. And I really love this quote that you found from JJ Piccolo because, you know, we talk about how hard it is to change things. He is saying in this quote, you know, just not to like ruin it for you ahead of time, but this is how I read it. not to like ruin it for you ahead of time, but this is how I read it. We had the elements in place, but we needed leadership to align with those elements in a different way. So if you think about that while you're listening to this

quote, I think it makes sense how you can maybe change an organization quickly if this is the case. You know, for a long time we've been criticized for not being analytically driven, you know, just being behind the scenes, I know that we were analytically driven, we just had traditional minds, you know, as heads of departments. So I think it was a little bit unfair, unjust, whatever, it was what it was. But over the last year, year and a half, the people that we've

begun to employ in our hiring half, the people that we've begun to employ in our hiring practices, you know, we were looking for people with more diverse backgrounds and how they were raised in the game. So to avoid that, you know, being too one sided, you know, whether it's traditional thoughts, and just grind your way through baseball or too analytical. So anyway, we we've hired a lot of people from our major league manager to really entry level positions of people who have different backgrounds. And it's really helped us. It's helped us learn from each other, respect one another, think about the game in different ways. And that's been exciting for us. So that was JJ Piccolo on the windup earlier this year with Jason Stark and Doug Glanville. And it's interesting to me that as someone who's been in the organization since 2006,

JJ gets elevated to a higher leadership position and realizes that, hey, we're going to make sure we're not only listening to the new ideas, but we're continually finding new ideas, right? I think that's a huge part of how you keep an organization moving forward. And I think there were some people who believed when JJ Piccolo took over for Dayton Moore, heading up baseball operations that, ah, it might be more of the same in Kansas City. But I think it's a sign that this organization actually could be good beyond this season. I think there's a lot to unpack with just how they're doing it.

It's interesting that we've been so critical of the Mariners lineup all season by the way, because there are so many different paths to being league average or close to it at the plate. Both the Mariners and the Royals have 99 WRC pluses on the season. The Royals do a great job tempering strikeouts, right? 18.7%. Yeah. They're hitting 253 as a team. That's been a big problem in Seattle.

That's been the huge difference, right? And they've shown better, you know, more, more power in terms of slugging percentage than the Mariners too. Because they have batting average. Because they've got the batting average, but then like both of these teams hit the same number of home runs, like 161 for Seattle, 160 for Kansas city. They both run a lot. Mariners 121 stolen bases, Royals 116, but the contact is huge.

But Seattle, to begin the season, said they wanted to cut that, that strikeout rate and they didn't. Right. And I think if you said, which of those teams is more dangerous in the post season, not knowing anything else about them, throwing out the quality of their pitching, the quality of their defense, which lineup would you rather face in the postseason? You'd rather face Seattle's lineup in the postseason.

Because- You can get out of an inning with a strikeout. Balls in play are your worst nightmare in those situations. So I think if you're going to be league average, you'd rather be league average with that low K rate, even if there's something else, there's a little extra juice, maybe power-wise, maybe you walk a little more.

That's the difference for Seattle. I'd much rather go into a series, built the way the Royals are built, lineup-wise, than built the way the Mariners are, even though they grade out as the same by WRC+. That's a great point. Another interesting thing that I hear when he's talking is I tend to think a lot about organizations

and how they're built and how they communicate. And one thing that I do know from Houston is that in some ways they've lost an AGM with analytical ties. So there's no longer really, some feel there's no longer really a voice for the analytics work that's being done. Now you can't say that the Astros went

from being a league leader in analytics and sort of progressive tactics to going to being bad at it. They're not, there's still a lot of the same people that are doing the same work there. But if you don't have the ear at the leadership position, then two things happen. The people who are doing the work,

even rightly or wrongly, feel like, where's this work going? You know? And then the other thing is, you just don't have anybody implementing the work that's being done. So it becomes true, that you need to have people who are listening to it.

So JJ can say, oh yeah, we were doing all that work. But if the leaders of the departments weren't sort of that inclined to listen, you know, when they come up and say, you know, we need to do this or we need to do this or it's spin access or whatever, you know, then they're not implementing the work that's being done. So that's how you can change things quickly is if you think like things are

being done here down here that are pretty good, we just need up there to listen and to really implement all this. Then that's, that's, I think can be a little bit of a difference in the white socks because you know, the white socks did the same thing where they, they, they took somebody that was in place and put them, put them above. Um, and like, you know, Chris gets without really going out there and, you know, they get, they, there's a higher from within, but I don't think there's that same, you know, we were doing the work on the ground.

Now we just need to listen, you know? And they did a little bit where they like changed the stuff at the top. They, Oh, let's bring in Brian Bannister. He'll change everything about our pitching development and he can, but he's one guy. And so if he's out there trying to change every pitcher and make a plan for every pitcher, you got like 200 pitchers in there. You know, like, what are you, what are you going to do? Yeah, I agree.

So you know, you need to have some, there's a, there's a relationship though, between like all the small hires and the big hires, you know, there's, it's, it's hard to get right, you know, but you have to do both. Yeah. I heard the same thing when I heard that like, yeah, a lot of clubs make the mistake of saying, well, yeah, we use, we have analytics, we have analytics staffs, we use analytics. But if the decision makers aren't valuing that analytics, then what are you doing? You know, I had an executive from a, you know, a very successful team say recently to me, like,

the problem with analytics with a lot of clubs is if they have a gut feeling on something and analytics confirms it, they'll listen. But if the analytics tells them the opposite, they won't. And that's not really using analytics. Yeah. Cognant bias. Yeah. Right. So it can be a tricky slippery slope.

And I think, you know, what JJ, you know, recognize and also what he's done. And I want to give a lot of credit to, to Quattraro in the dugout, because every time you talk to somebody, they bring up Q and what he's done coming from Tampa Bay, another great organization, as we know, really innovative, really progressive, uh, changing the culture, uh,

setting expectations. Um, he, I think has done a great job. I've been a great conduit to that message that JJ Piccolo has. And also the Royals have changed over, like you said, so many different departments. And as JJ said, once you get that diversity of thought and opinion, now you're creating something a little bit different, right? Now you're looking at it and you're saying, all right, we don't want to do what everyone else is doing.

That's the mistake a lot of teams make is, Oh, every team's got two dozen analysts. We should hire two dozen analysts, even though we don't know what they're doing. We don't know what any of them are doing. Okay. You know, um, what I think the Royals are doing is saying, yeah, we're going to take a little this bucket. We're going to take this bucket. We're going to do things our way. Cause we're the Kansas the Royals are doing is saying, we're gonna take a little this bucket, we're gonna take this bucket, we're gonna do things our way because we're the Kansas City Royals and we can't win the way the Yankees are winning.

We can't win the way even, you mentioned the White Sox, they don't have to pay for all the White Sox. They just don't have some of these resources and so they have to take this information and they have to take these people and they have to not be afraid to take risks with things and I think they've done that under the hood. There seems to be a lot of really like positivity radiating,

not just from the organization, but from other people I talked to as it relates to what's going on in Kansas City. You know, I think on the national scale, Bobby Wood Jr. should be a lot bigger deal than really the attention that he's getting. But there's so much more going on there than what Bobby would you and your is doing. Yeah, you know, one thing I think about too is like, you know, the the length of a chance you get something I think about a lot because I'm in San Francisco and it feels like in San Francisco, you get two or three weeks, even if you do well, you might go back down. There's a very sort of you what have you done for me lately, very sort of we have a fluid roster. You might be down, you might be up.

We're all, we're all on board. We're all working together. But like, I'm in the minors and I just had a great month. Luis Montos, I just had a great month in the majors and now I'm in the minors. What's going on with that? You know? Um, so that put up against the A's who are like, no, we're going to put you in place for two, for two months, maybe a whole year, you know, and give you a real shot at this.

JJ Bladay, we're going to give you not only this whole year, you know, and give you a real shot at this JJ blooday. We're going to give you not only this year, but we're going to give you another year, you know, because we're the A's and we can, that's our currency. We can give you time. And so I think back on JJ Piccolo coming in and saying, Bobby wit is our starting shortstop, you know, full stop. We don't, I don't want to hear about it. You know, that's it.

Let's stop talking about it. He's our shortstop. And that allowed, I think, uh, Bobby Witt to kind of flourish defensively as well as offensively, just sort of being like, Hey, you're our guy. We're putting you in place. We're not going to muck around you. Don't worry about third base. Don't worry about anything.

Just man your position and hit the crap out of the ball. And he's been great because of, I think that's partially, you know, that's something that is very different from organization to organization. As much as I love Tampa, I think Tampa is more of a like, hey, we're cycling through people here. You know, you better do something or else you're out. You might be a platoon guy next week. So, you know, it's a little bit different

from organization to organization in terms of how much of a chance they give you, how they broadcast their confidence in you, what they tell you, you know, that sort of stuff. The last thing I just want to say about the Royals is I think defensively they've been fantastic too. And I think a lot of times we underrate teams that thrive in that facet.

Think it's one of those things that takes good pitching and makes it great. Average pitching and makes it good. But I think they actually have good pitching. They're more in that first category. It's a good staff. They added to the bullpen at the deadline. Airsig was a good get. Under Harvey's been hurt but I think that gives them two more high quality arms. Both those guys are healthy at the end of the season too. That makes them more dangerous when they shorten up and use fewer guys come playoff time. But if their defense continues to be airtight

They could just be a tough team from a run prevention perspective, too It's not just their pesky Ness the plate their second lowest strikeout rate in the entire league How often can one game turn on one just had some mistake, you know, right? They can avoid that that makes them a bit more of a problem against teams that are above their weight class overall But I think the other thing that stood out to me too, looking at the Royals, going back to our run differential conversation from a little while ago,

they're a plus 91. Like that's better than I would have expected. Just for context, the Orioles are a plus 84, the Astros are a plus 87, the Guardians are a plus 72. And those teams are quite a bit better than the Twins, Red Sox, Tigers, and Marinersers who are all in that 46 to plus 3 range as a group. So they're a cut above.

The Royals are a cut above the other teams vying for wild card spots in the AL right now. At least they have been up to this point and I think there's a lot of interesting reasons for that. But speaking of the Astros, Justin Verlander has not looked like himself since coming off the IL and it's still, there's enough time for him to take the ball a few times and get Speaking of the Astros, Justin Verlander has not looked like himself since coming off the IL and it's still, there's enough time for him to take the ball a few times and get right before the postseason begins, but it begins to raise a question about his role in October.

How do you think the Astros will try to manage Justin Verlander in the postseason if the struggles we've seen since his return from the aisle, it's only been four starts. If those continue over the rest of September, gently because you're dealing with someone who is going to be hall of famer. Uh, someone who has pitched in world series, has pitched in big games, has been a huge part of that organization. So ego is a factor. This isn't like a rookie who's lost his way. This is a guy who is going to want the ball if the Astros get to the playoffs. So I

think you have to look at the scenarios and say, are we going to run him out there? Do we feel comfortable he can get us one time through the order? Can he get us 12 outs? No, I think you have to, you have to look at the approach a little bit differently if he's not getting any better. I mean that, that Sunday night baseball game, Arizona just clobbered him. That can't happen. Yeah, that can't happen in the playoffs. Like you can't be giving games away. That's how series change on a dime. Um, so I think that Houston has to, you know, because he is so revered and has so much experience and knows himself in his body better than probably 99% of the league, you have to have that kind of a conversation with him.

And you have to approach it, like I said, probably gingerly and gently. And he's a guy who's going to push back, he's not afraid to. So you have to look at, okay, who are we going to start if it's not Justin Verlander? It's not exactly, the Houston Astros this year are not previous iterations of this Astros team, right? This is a team that has holes. This is a team that has benefited from the rest of the division having a lot of issues. So I think you have to look at it if you're Dana Brown and say, what is our best scenario

here? Can we really leave Justin Verlander off the playoff roster? I don't think you can. I don't think you can. I don't think you can. I think he has enough ability to help them. The question is how? How do you do that? Does he come out of the bullpen?

Does he start the game and give you two innings? I don't know, but I don't think if we have to decide here on September 10th, if Justin Verlander is part of their playoff roster, I still say he is. Yeah, I think what's weird is that, you know, in terms of his stuff, it doesn't seem that far off. The stuff plus numbers are not the best of his career, but they're, you know, they're not, they'd be above average for other players.

He's getting back up to 94 miles an hour. There's, you know, one thing we have to remember is that Arizona is actually really good. It's the best offense in baseball. So, you know, we may just have seen him kind of run into that at the worst, at the worst time, you know, one thing we have to remember is that Arizona is actually really good. It's the best offense in baseball. So, you know, we may just have seen him kind of run into that at the worst, at the worst time, you know, as he's trying to get back online, uh, he has two starts in a row now against the angels. He might be able to get right against them.

So we might change our opinion a little bit over the next couple of weeks. And then lastly, I think that because of who he is and because I think the real option is Hunter Brown, because I think you say Kik he is and because I think the real option is Hunter Brown because I think you say Kakuchi is pitch his way in from Ber is your game one starter I mean, that's your guy's been with you forever so it really comes down to Verlander or Brown for a start in the third game or and what I would suggest is You know reading between the lines to what Britt said and thinking of myself as a manager, I would start Justin Verlander in game two, because usually there's a rest after game two. And there's a day off.

Whatever date, whatever place in the schedule where you have a day off after it, you start Verlander, you have Hunter Brown in the pen to start the game. I don't know if he's like warming, but he's out there You know and and he starts throwing the minute verlander starts putting people on because you're right You can't give up grand slam to Pavin Smith in the in the playoffs You know if he gets to two people on he might be out So that's that's how I would I would treat it and I would say and that would be giving him all the respect in the world By saying you're still a starter for us, still game two starter for us. Um, and we still need you, but if, but if you, you know, we can't give you, you know, seven, seven RBI to one player, we can't, we can't, that can't happen.

I think it's really hard when you look at how well Hunter Brown's pitch since late May, like to, to not want to use him. I was hoping to look at his splits and be like, he's slowed down, but, uh, 145 year rate in August. pitch since late May, like to not want to use him. I was hoping to look at his splits and be like, he's slowed down, but 145 you are in August. But I do think if you're in a position, it's a longer series and you can start Verlander in front of an off day and you have someone like Blanco or Arragedi that you could just throw for innings behind him. If he doesn't have it, like that would probably be

among the best options you have where you can sort of try to have your cake and eat it too. If you think there's a chance he could write the ship, but you're not so certain of it that you want to just use them like regular starter. What if he goes out and dominates against the angels like he should, you know? So he's got two good stars. You still start him in game two, so that's the only thing that happens. Yeah. I think you're, you're looking at this more as like the entire body of work for the season. That's how you're kind of coming up with this plan and saying, yeah, recent form is confirming some of the things we saw at the beginning of the year.

So let's reevaluate where and how we want to use Verlander in the postseason. I think that's probably where they're at. I mean, look, he's 41. He's been hurt a lot this year, so it's going to happen eventually. It happens to everybody We are gonna go on our way out the door a reminder You can get a subscription to athletic at the athletic comm slash rates and barrels $2 a month gets in the door for the first year you can find us on Twitter

Brit is that Brit underscore Jiroli you know is that you know Sarah's I am at Derek and Riper the pod is at rates And barrels and of course you can join our discord using the link in the show description be sure to jump in there if you got a mailbag question for a future episode That's probably the best way to send those at this point. That's gonna do it for this episode of rates and barrels We're back with you Thursday at 1 o'clock Eastern on YouTube Thanks for listening College football is back like never before. I'm David Ubbin and I host Until Saturday, the athletics leveled up college football podcast. Three times a week you'll hear me and my co-host, fellow athletics senior writer Chris Finini, and two-time national champion Damien Harris embrace the sport's new madness with you.

We're also just going to have a ton of fun enjoying all the things that make college football great. Check out the brand new Until Saturday every every Monday, Wednesday and Thursday this fall. You can find us wherever you listen to your podcasts.