Rates & Barrels - Tough Breaks for the Tigers & Second-Chance Surprises

Episode Date: May 31, 2023

Eno and DVR discuss the promotion of AJ Smith-Shawver, a pair of key injuries for the Tigers with Eduardo Rodriguez and Riley Greene heading to the IL, another injury for Harrison Bader, the pitch mix of Grayson Rodriguez, and several second-chance league surprises -- including big risers Joe Ryan, Esteury Ruiz, Josh Lowe, and Merrill Kelly.  Rundown 1:10 AJ Smith-Shawver Joins the Braves 7:55 Eduardo Rodriguez's Finger Injury; Tarik Skubal Nearing Rehab Assignment 12:28 Opportunity for Reese Olson? 16:56 Riley Greene's Breakout Slowed by Tibia Injury 20:42 Colt Keith Time? 30:08 Harrison Bader Goes Back to the IL 37:43 Grayson Rodriguez's Pitch Mix 42:20 Second-Chance League Surprises 48:02 A Detour to Discuss Luis Medina 53:05 Esteury Ruiz Rising Up Boards in Second-Chance Leagues 58:20 Josh Lowe's Move Up; ROS Expectations 64:17 Merrill Kelly's Strikeout Rate Surge Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Head to factormeals.com/rates50 and use code rates50 to get 50% off your first box Nuts.com is offering new customers a free gift with purchase and free shipping on orders of $29 or more at Nuts.com/rates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

So let's be clear. When it comes to shipping internationally, can I provide trade documents electronically? Mm-hmm. The answer is FedEx. Okay. But what about estimating duties and taxes on my shipments? How do I find all the... Also FedEx. Impressive. Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about? FedEx. Oh. But let's say that... FedEx.

What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx. What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx, where now meets next. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Wednesday, May 31st. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. On this episode, we've got some news and notes.

A big promotion in Atlanta as A.J. Smith-Shover joins the bullpen, at least for now. Some longer-term questions there. Shover's a good nickname. It really is. Injuries in Detroit to Edward Rodriguez and Riley Green. Unfortunate because both players were having very good seasons. Harrison Bader goes back on the IL. We had some pitch

specific questions that were coming in about Grayson Rodriguez in the wake of his demotion, so we'll address those a bit on today's show. I figured we'd also take a look at the second chance league surprises I mentioned on yesterday's show. There have been a handful of drafts over at the NFBC that are for the rest of the season going forward. So we'll talk about some of the big movers that really have caught our eye. And we will get to the mailbag questions that we did not get to on the Tuesday episode, specifically a question about Nolan Gorman.

So let's begin today, you know, with AJ Smith-Shavar. It's a bullpen role for now, but it's pretty clearly a starter's arsenal. And long term, this is a guy that we're likely going to see in the middle or even possibly closer to the front of the Atlanta rotation. Yeah, pretty excited about him. The minor league stuff plus suggests that he's got an elite fastball. The scouting has been positive about his breaking balls the the results have been uh through the roof um the only uh asterisk i have is a strange thing where uh the fangraph scouting grade on the curveball is a 40 uh 40 present 50 future the stuff plus on it

is not great in a very small sample um and uh other people have mentioned that it's really big movement so i wonder if it's just such a big curve while he also didn't use it very much in triple a i don't know if that's because he's transitioning to relieving or focusing on his best pitches, but I am intrigued to see the curveball even if it's not his best pitch. I think he's more fastball. I saw fastball, cutter, slider, so I wonder if it's fastball, gyro, slider, and sweeper, if it's sort of fastball, gyro, slider, and sweeper,

if that's the sort of general grouping that he's got. But in any case, the fastball's elite, the breaking balls have performed really well, and he's here. And the big questions for Atlanta have been in that back end of the rotation thanks to the injury to Max Freed and the injury to Kyle Wright. Missing two of their starters has left them in a more vulnerable position. Bryce Elder, of course, you guys talked a lot about him, I think, last Thursday while I was out. The performance versus the underlying numbers is a huge disparity there. Even if you think Bryce Elder will continue to exceed expectations, he probably won't exceed them by this much.

Jared Schuster, kind of questionable as a back-end starter, at least in the short term. Then Michael Soroka coming off the two Achilles injuries just finally made it back. I thought he looked okay in that first start back against Oakland, so I'm really curious to see what the next couple of turns bring for him. But for a team that has legitimate World Series aspirations, there are some shorter-term issues in terms of getting quality innings every fifth day,

especially from those back-end guys. So how they use Smyshover, probably multi-inning relief, probably piggybacking in some form or often pitching behind one of Schuster or Elder or Soroka. I think it makes a lot of sense that we might actually see him tonight. Jared Schuster might be pitching for his roster spot if I sort of read between the lines here a little bit. Elder, no matter what you think of his stat cast page or his stuff plus numbers or whatever,

I think has shown enough competence to be a number five. Freed's on his way back. You know, Soroka will probably get some leash no matter how he's pitching. So Schuster and Smishava seem like the guys who are going to be short-term replacements. If this rotation's fully healthy, I would are going to be short-term replacements if this rotation is fully healthy I would expect it to be Morton, Strider Freed

Soroka and Elder and but I will say I think Smith-Shavar has the stuff to maybe unseat Elder the projections all expect a mid-4 ZRA for Bryce Elder going forward that's what I personally sort of expect that's what he did in AAA and so there's even a little bit of daylight for Smith-Shalver

to take the fifth spot from Elder and the last bit of daylight that Smith-Shalver has is that Soroka's stuff wasn't all the way back his change- up uh performed pretty poorly uh in the in the model and has been flatter since the injury his change up used to have more depth now his change up has less depth than his sinker which is just weird and so so far weird bad according to the model. I know Jerry Moschino's Stuff Plus model that's out there on Twitter, he was saying that his model liked it and said it was weird good. In any case, it's a straight change in a league where straight changes are not in vogue. And so Soroka is an interesting character. He before wasn't a Stuff monster, even in 2020,

but he always has located well and made the most out of what he does have. So I'm interested to see if maybe Atlanta has some secret sauce here with Elder and Soroka beating models. Yeah, with Soroka, the four-seamer in that first start back was at 93.3, mixes the four-seamer in that first start back was at 93.3.

He mixes the four-seamer with the sinker, changeup, and a slider. He kind of had an even mix of those four pitches, though. Nothing over 27% usage across the board. And the sinker and the changeup look so similar when you watch them. They really are. It's bizarre. Yeah, but there's a 10-mile- 10 mile an hour gap so that's a straight change you know thing um and it might be enough uh especially if he locates it well but he didn't

he didn't really necessarily locate that well in his first start either so um and uh his extension is totally different he has uh changed his uh delivery some uh some during the time back. So just a crazy story for him. So of course I'm rooting for him. I don't know that I'm dropping really heavy coin on him. I'm a stuffist and I'd rather spend on Bobby Miller. Yeah, if that's an option, I'm right there with you. I think the problem is if you emptied the piggy bank for any one of Mason Miller or Taj Bradley or Uri Perez,

you didn't have the hammer bids available for Bobby Miller, which is the unfortunate part of not knowing exactly who's coming up and when they're coming up. You have to sort of guess, like, is this the best it's going to be? Do I want the extra couple of starts from the guys that come up in late April, early May, versus the guys that come up a little later? We play that game every single year, but I'm with you. There's a pretty big gap between those two guys from just a pure skills perspective. Let's get to the tigers injury situations uh eduardo

rodriguez who we talked about maybe two or three weeks ago on the show as someone that wasn't really doing anything different compared to past years when he's been pretty erratic uh but this year 213 era 0.98 we have 67ks and 67 and two-thirds innings. Unfortunately, he suffered a left index finger pulley rupture. This injury has occurred to other pitchers before. It is a little bit unusual. We don't hear of it very often, but this is probably a two-month injury based on the handful of past injuries.

I think Adam Wienwright was one of the players that have dealt with this in the past. It's a ligament injury, right? It's a serious problem, and it's pitching hands problem so it's pitching hand so it's going to be again probably months as opposed to weeks and this is a big blow for the tigers because even if they weren't going anywhere this year i think rodriguez was the kind of starter that could have been moved at the trade deadline if he's not healthy before then that probably eliminates the possibility of dealing him. Obviously, bad news for player himself.

Bad news for fantasy players. Just bad news all around, especially because the Tigers still have a lot of their young starters working their way back from injuries. They don't have a Casey Mize or a Tarek Skubal or any of those guys quite ready to step back into the rotation. Well, Skubal's about to start a rehab assignment. I don't know how long that's going to be though um he just threw a live batting practice yesterday so uh you know you'd have to expect at least a two-weeker you know i don't think you know i don't think he can just jump in there so for at least two to three weeks i would say that they are a starter short. Spencer Turnbull with the fake neck injury. I don't know. He has yet to resume throwing,

but he had been on his way to the minor leagues before that. I don't think Joey Wentz is a quality Major League starting pitcher. And Matt Manning threw a bullpen early this week and has some quality concerns of his own. So this is a bad injury for the Tigers, who are amazingly in second place. I was surprised to see that. I thought they were having a bad year, which those two things may not be completely incompatible with each other. It's only May 31st. They could still have a bad year.

Also, they're in a division where they are below 500 and in second place. Yeah, it says a lot about the state of the AL Central right now. Even though I'm on board with the idea that they're a lot better. With Scooble, it probably is a full, almost a max duration rehab assignment. He's coming off that flexor tendon surgery. I wouldn't be surprised if it took him all of June to get stretched out again. And maybe by the end of the month, he's activated. That gives him a lift for sure.

He'll, he'll be in there starting five. Once he's healthy enough, probably going to be someone that people are picking up in leagues a couple of weeks before he returns last year, the location numbers were better for Scooble. I'm surprised that the model didn't like the pitches because he's been so good at racking up strikeouts throughout his career,

especially in the minors had some really gross strikeout rates. The big issue for Scooble, his first two seasons, or parts of the first two seasons he was in the big leagues, were home runs. And he seemed to have fixed that last season. Got a lot of balls on the ground, cut the home run rate, kept the walks under control. And even if he doesn't get back to the ridiculous strikeout rates that we saw in the minor leagues, he looked like a quality big league starter. So I think his return is actually a pretty big one to our player pool and for the Tigers

that they are going to hang around in that AL Central race longer than people expect. Yeah, I'm not going to bet against Scooble. And one thing I do like about Tigers pitchers is I will always draft them or pay for them a little bit better than the stuff model, because I think that's still a pitcher's park. And I think it's a nice light landing. Like Lorenzen looks like sort of meh in the model but uh he's been pretty useful at home and uh if you play the careful start game with him um I think you can get value out of him here's a name uh that may end up uh because I'm reading between the lines here and trying to figure out what the the corresponding move for Eduardo Rodriguez is I don't know if they've announced something um but uh there's a possibility for me that reese olsen gets a chance um and i know his

minor league numbers in terms of results haven't been great but if you look beyond that a little bit and just look at his 2022 and 2023 uh years between you know in the lens of k minus bb you've got a guy who has about a 30 percent strikeout rate and a 10 percent walk rate nine percent walk rate that's actually very exciting uh some of the things that he had problems with might be mitigated by the park in terms of home runs and Babbitt allowed. I mean, Babbitt allowed is something that can be a problem when their defenders in the minor leagues are bad and then they get better in the major leagues. And then lastly, by stuff plus 105 stuff plus 103 location plus despite the high walk rates. Now that can be obscured by poor umpiring, poor framing by minor league catchers, and Hunter Brown had a similar thing where he had a really bad reputation for command, some bad walk rates in minor leagues, has not really had that problem in the major leagues, and Location Plus presaged that.

So, I would say that Reese Olsen may have some improvement in his walk rate in the major leagues. If he retains some of that strikeout rate, he could beat his projections, which are already pretty decent. A 4-2 from some places, a 4-8 from the bat, who has the best idea of the current run environment, but the bat is always pretty harsh on rookies. So if you see a good situation, you hear Reese Olsen is up, and you can identify a start where he's home or something like that, that's a name I would put under my hat. Yeah, probably cheaper than a lot of the other pitchers

we've been chasing this year too, because the prospect community is not as hyped by Olsen as they are by some of those other pitchers that we've seen but good results last year for sure interesting too to point out that the AAA leagues both AAA leagues have been using the automated balls and strikes system the international league in which the Tigers AAA team plays started using it in late april so both have had it now for over a month we have seen walk rates tick up for obviously for hitters and pitchers because walks are up in general so keep that in mind too when you see a walk rate spike at triple a this year that could be part of what's

going on it might not be entirely a command issue and because of the park i'm right there with you look at the stat cast park factors rolling three-year average comerica park still right there safely in the blue 24th in park factor so one of the more picture friendly don't know you know what his pitch mix is in the minors there's often like you know we saw with taj bradley like go to the minor leagues and work on your you know inconsistent fastball command and you know he throws like 80 fastballs in the minor leagues and you're like okay but then when you get to the major leagues it's like no we want to win today and you don't really have great command of your fastball so hey let's go with like 40% 50% cutters and curves

which you seem to land better. The Fangrass prospect TLDR on Olsen is he doesn't have great fastball command well what if he comes to the major leagues and they call 35 sliders you know and he hasn't been throwing that many in the minors and he can actually land the slider so um i'm just saying the location plus does not suggest somebody that has 30 command as they say on fangraph so uh i'm interested in that and it reminds me a little bit of like the louis varlin situation where it's like maybe this guy's a little better than people thought. Right. And those players make a pretty big difference on the margins.

By the way, Comerica Park, in terms of home run park factor, it is the most pitcher-friendly park in the entire league by the StatCast Park Factors. Despite the changes. Can you change that to one year? Just this year, three-year rolling, no. Hit update, hit the sort button, and it is, ooh, it's 22nd for this year three year rolling no hit update hit the sort button and it is oh it's 22nd for

this year only so it's still picture friendly yeah with a home run park factor of 87 so still not bad yeah so keep on rolling those tigers for those uh home starts when you get the opportunity up your health game with sun life and the Toronto Raptors health experts. Access nutritional tips, mental health coaching, and advice on overall wellness. As the official health and wellness partner of the Toronto Raptors, we want you to be a fan of your health with sunlifehealthyyou.com. Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze, and it felt a little like... And it felt a little like... Life's a trip.

Make the most of it at Best Western sticking with the Tigers for another few minutes Riley Green has a stress fracture in his tibia I have not seen a timetable kind of poking around

I don't think this is a minimum IELTS situation I also don't think it's necessarily a season ending situation but a lot of uncertainty for the time being

so hopefully in the next few days we'll get some clarity on just how long Riley Green will be sidelined by this injury. It's a really finicky sort of thing. I think it has to do with like how much separation there is. If there's actually, you know, some separation, then the bone has to kind of grow together. And, you know, but generally, you know, from what I understand, blood flows to bone better than ligaments, which surprises me. But not intuitive for me as someone who didn't study the human body in college.

Right. Yeah. So there's a chance this isn't that big a deal. But there's also, you know, just the fact it is a stress fracture it's like a repetitive motion thing so it's like what were you doing like there's something you were doing that was causing that and if we'd let you back out there again you know without really fully diagnosing you then you may just sort of undergo that stress again and do something to it so yeah it's it's really frustrating because riley green was putting together a nice season, a.296 average, a.362 OBP. The power was up to a.443 slug,

five homers in 52 games, which in that park, you're on a mid-to-high teens pace in that category. And he was six for six as a base dealer, showing some improvement in an area where he was just one for five as a rookie a season ago. So really helping in five categories and as a young very young player just a guy who's 22 years old doesn't turn 23 until basically the end

of this season in late september was quietly having that step forward sort of breakout year that people were hoping for yeah rip uh i can't afford to lose any more bold predictions, but this would have been the one that got me to three. Unfortunately, I don't think I'm going to get to three this year. But, you know, the interesting thing about him is that he's always had that max EV, and he's just getting to that power better over time, and there's some corollary to that power better uh you know over time and that there's some uh corollary to that to the minor leagues so um you know he's a guy that needs to shave off some ground balls

even going forward uh but uh that also allows him to hit the ball hard um and make the most of his balls in play and he's had very high babbips his whole life because you know he is a right hander uh nope he's not he's a left hander that can't get shifted anymore like he used to be able to um and he's uh able to uh you know hitting those good angles he's not hitting the ball in the air 50 of the time um and make just enough contact to put the ball in play, and then he has good legs. So he's a guy who's going to run upper half Babbitts, and if you see, even his projections are for a.350 Babbitt. So he's a guy who's going to make the most out of the contact

that he puts out there. And I'm still excited about him long-term. I think this will be a tough one for the Tigers, and if we're playing the depth chart game, Nick Monton is going to get more playing time. I don't know, because Matt Vierling is hurt too. And so there's, you know, maybe, is there an opening for a call-up?

It's too early for Colt Keith, right? Well, they brought up Jake Marisnyk. Which is just not exciting at all. Right. Organizational depth. I mean, I think the two position player prospects you look at with the Tigers, at least guys that are more highly regarded, are Colt Keith and Justin Henry Malloy, who they acquired from Atlanta back during the winter. Keith's at double A right now. He's 21.

He's a left-handed bat. Keith's at double A right now he's 21, the left handed bat there's some questions about where he fits in defensively but I don't think there's any doubt about what he can do with the stick I mean it's just he'll be a little bit young but like hey maybe, hey we're in second place

like let's try this why not give it a shot at this point if you're in their shoes to take some lumps in the major leagues like you can always reset whatever service time you give him right um it's unfortunate that parker meadows who has some things going in his favor has run into a bit of a buzzsaw in triple a um this was somebody that was kind of toolsy and putting things together was the thought and had some good looks in the AFL.

But I don't know what is a failure. The Fangraph's grades are most pessimistic about his hit tool. But his strikeout rate isn't necessarily the problem. But hit tool is not his strikeout rate isn't necessarily the problem but hit tool is not just strikeout rate so uh the maxi v111 and triple a i mean at least that's average power raw power he's got plus speed would they try parker meadows just because he's an outfielder and he plays center field and he's close to the big leagues, even though he's not really quote-unquote earned it, I guess? They might.

I mean, I think part of the problem with Keith is that he's playing almost exclusively at third base. They've tried him at third. They've tried him at second. So I don't think they can really make that work as the corresponding move unless they're going to play Nick Maton in the outfield more often. I think you could probably try that. Yeah, Maton's played all over. But the Marisnyk

thing seems almost like we're going to keep Parker Meadows down. You don't have to trade for Marisnyk if you just promote Parker Meadows and put him in center. Yeah, and they do also move Zach McKinstry around so you could play McKinstry less on the infield. So there's a path for Colt Keith as someone that could get a look. Scope might benefit. I think it's one of those deals where a lot of people might benefit and not a lot of them are going to be useful for our leagues.

So I think in general, McKinstry, who's already owned in most places that he should be owned, may benefit, but he was already kind of being an everyday guy. Maton, who I don't think, I think he's an AL only type player, is going to benefit. I think Jonathan Scope is going to benefit, but I don't necessarily think he's going to get back to where he was. necessarily think he's going to get back to you know where he was um he you know he hasn't been he hasn't barreled the ball well uh for you know three years and uh you know sad that's just that's just very sad yeah and like he's last what is this now 600 plate appearances he's been more than 40 percent worse than league average with a stick. That's a player that you would designate for assignment. If you're going to create a spot on the 40-man roster.

For Keith. Yeah, I think that's the corresponding move you make at this point because he's in the final year of the two-year deal. You've given him two months this year to show you that last season was a fluke and not just a full collapse, and he's done nothing really to convince you that he's still got something left in the tank so if you're the tigers why keep putting him out there why keep him on the roster there's just not a whole lot you can do with a player

like that so i think we could see colt key i think you're onto something here you know i mean he's the one who's earned it so i think what I would watch is if Maton starts playing center. Right? Or Badu plays center and Maton plays left. Kerry Carpenter's coming back. Did Kerry play center before? Oh, this is a fun trivia game for you. Who has played, who has started a game in center field for the Tigers this season?

Let's see how many you can name. There are. I've just been looking at it. So, I mean, it's Badou. There's actually two players that have started in center field prior to today. There are two players that have started in center field because Riley Green plays every day. And then you name the other one. Green and Badou?

Vierling. Vierling. Vierling. Before he got hurt. So, when Vierling comes back, Vierling probably plays center. Until then... Vierling's injury is Vierling probably plays center. Until then... Vierling's injury is a little bit short-termish. Kerry Carpenter

hasn't played center field since 2021. So Kerry Carpenter's not going to help. But he begins a rehab assignment. So what is this in the short term with Green out? I think it's Kerry Carpenter, question mark in I think it's Kerry Carpenter,

question mark in center. No, Kerry Carpenter, Matt Veerling when Veerling comes back. And you still have an opening in the outfield. Badu has not been playing well. Is he even in the major leagues? He is in the major leagues, but he's been playing better.

They're playing, so today, there's a game happening right now. They're playing the Rangers. Dane Dunning's been playing better. They're playing, so today, there's a game happening right now. They're playing the Rangers. Dane Dunning's a righty. They're facing a righty. So Badu's out there. They put Badu in left, and they put McKinstry in right,

and they played Marisnyk and hit him ninth in center because Marisnyk is a good defensive center fielder. So they put McKinstry in the outfield. But that's when Vierling comes back, they can put Vierling in center, so they could run that most days. And then Carpenter

can push Bidoux to the bench against he's a lefty too. Carpenter could push McKinstry to the infield. I mean, I know it's the AL Central, but how

is this team only three below 500 as it is currently constructed? You think they should be more games under 500? I think they, I mean, just at a glance. Just to clarify, Nick Maton has not played center field since 2021. And I don't know how you feel about Pythagorean win-loss, but Pythagorean

win loss has the tigers at 21 and 32 so i'm not just being rude yeah but there's a there's a bit of a a a question mark here in terms of um organizationally do you just take the banked wins and just be like hey we're this is fun like let's let's We're in second place. Let's go for it. Or do you say, no, we're not very good. Let's continue playing like we're not very good and just try to identify if Meton's going to be on our team next year

and who else is going to be on our team next year in the short term. This is probably something we're going to get into with a few other teams on 3-0. But for the Tigers, they have a sub-5% chance of making the playoffs and earning play today, according to the fan graphs odds. Even in that division.

Do you think they should be an aggressive seller? I think they should still be an aggressive seller. And I think if they're... They should sell Badoo. Especially in light of what just happened. If Erod and Riley Green were healthy, those are two pretty important players if you're going to exceed expectations.

Both of those guys staying healthy and doing what they were doing over the bulk of what's left of the season was really important to them. And now that can't happen because of their injuries. I think if you were on the fence about it, that's enough to swing you into the... Who do they sell? Play young guys. It you into the, well, play young guys.

It's more just like keep playing the young guys. If you're the Tigers, learn as much about the guys that you think are part of your future as you possibly can while also upgrading the roster. The odds of Colt Keith being worse than Jonathan Scope are very low. So make that change. Put Colt Keith on the roster and play him instead of playing 28, 29, 30 year old guys that are not part of your future. Play Meadows over Marisnyk.

Yeah, I think you should. Who could you trade? Lorenzen? But then you're just really, you're going to have a terrible rotation. You're not going to get a whole lot out of most of this roster trade-wise because it's not built for now. It just wasn't.

It wasn't built that way. Bias is going nowhere. You could trade Lang. Because generally you think a guy like Lang is relatively easy to find or develop. But is trading Alex Lang going to change the long-term fortunes of the Tigers all that much? Probably not. There's some sort of frenzy.

They need a frenzy. You know, people overpay for relievers. Yeah, sure. You could trade a guy like that and get someone back who helps you more later, but they're just kind of in the learning. It's learning as much as they can about the pieces they have and having a better idea of where their truest needs are for when their window is open again.

Yeah, I think in terms of playing Scope and Marisnyk, that's the two where I'm like... Yeah, just don't do that and see what happens. That's all. A couple more injury news items to get to. Harrison Bader placed on the 10-day IL. I just want to see what would happen if Harrison Bader could stay completely healthy. We talked about this back in the outfield preview.

The previous career high in plate appearances for Harrison Bader was 427. That was back in 2018. So he's got three seasons where he's been in the low 400 range for plate appearances. This is normal for him, unfortunately. He shows power and speed on a per-game basis that makes you think that if he stays healthy for 600 plate appearances, you actually could see 20-plus homers and 20-plus steals.

The skills are still there. He's doing it in a strange way this year. It's a 267-295-511 line, but not surprising to see him showing us more power with the move into Yankee Stadium for half his games. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think that OBVP needs to come up, but it has been up in the past. I mean, he's like one of these players where if you could smush together different aspects

of his line from past years, you could put together a superstar. You put together that 11% walk rate he put in 2019 with his 13% strikeout rate this year, with his ISO from this year with his ISO from this year and his speed from last year. It's why we all keep getting

hooked in and saying, maybe this is the year. Maybe this is the skills consolidation good health year. The injury seems real. They traded for him while he was injured uh they knew what they were getting and i thought i think that they thought they would have better depth but uh aaron hicks is a baltimore oriole uh and the uh the corresponding move here was franchi cordero uh being up um which you don't want Franchi in center.

So I guess what you're going to see is some IKF and or Allen. IKF and Judge. And Allen? Greg Allen some? Yep, you'll see Greg Allen. Greg Allen will play a little bit out there. IKF will play a little bit out there, and Aaron Judge will play out there.

I wonder how they parse that out. Let's see here. IKF has played 112 innings in center this year. Yep, 112 innings in center this year. That's 13 games. And he's acquitted himself

averagelyely as he does everywhere. I think he's a nice bench player to have. I really do. I just think when you get caught using him for 600 plate appearances then you've probably missed somewhere. This is strange.

Jake Bowers. There's going to be some days where it's Jake Bowers there's going to be some days where it's Jake Bowers Greg Allen and Willie Calhoun in the outfield oh no Willie Calhoun how much are they playing Willie Calhoun

I'm just saying there could be a day when they do this a getaway day or something I mean Calhoun's playing some. I keep saying his name in the... Let's see here. What does this game log say?

Calhoun is playing... Look at that. Three games in right field. He's played three days in a row. Yeah, he's played three games in right. He's DH-ing a lot right now. Because Stanton is hurt. Right, and Stanton's not that far away from coming back.

So my murderer's row outfield is probably not going to happen because even in that scenario, Calhoun would be DHing and Judge would be in the outfield. This is pretty typical stuff for the Yankees. It always happens to them at some point in the year. Bowers has been alright. They do fine guys. Franchi's okay. I'm not saying these guys are terrible, terrible players. It's just not what you drew up. No, but they're still sitting just five games behind the Rays,

despite the Rays' amazing start. They're only four games behind the Rays for projected wins for the rest of the season. And Carlos Rodon hasn't thrown a pitch for them yet. So there's the possibility they get him back. They just got Luis Severino back. So they're starting to put that rotation in place. They're about to get Josh Donaldson back.

That's going to change everything. Harmony in the clubhouse will take a hit. This is a good team. It's a good team. But there are times when you look out there and you're like, what is this lineup? What is happening here? How do you take advantage of it uh i think that all these kind of guys are great sort of bat streamers you know

jake bowers has really changed something he's i've never seen uh like first of all i've never seen a max ev like this never seen a barrel rate this. It's been a long time since we've seen a pull rate like this. He's much more of a three-two outcome guy than he's ever been in his life. And to some extent, that's treating him well. So, you know, he's a lefty that with the short porch, if the Yankees are home, I'm in on Bowers. If the Yankees are playing somebody who's not good at defending the steals i'm in on gregory allen you know i think these guys are going to play a fair

amount in the short term because when i look through this list i only see aaron judge yeah i think there's a a longer term thing the yankees have done well with some of these depth players going probably back to at least Gio Urshela just finding players that are unheralded, turning them into those depth guys using them to be the glue players throughout the regular season and getting pretty good results Bauer's having an 18.2%

barrel rate is a surprise I think we know Franchi Cordero for as long as we've ever been interested in him as a big league player has been one of those guys that could do fun stat cast things, but couldn't do the basic baseball things that earn enough playing time, right? There was a lot of swing. There's always swing and miss in his profile, too. That was the other part of the, why doesn't this work with Franchi?

But the why teams keep taking a chance on him, that's easy to see too. He's got a 15% barrel rate as an up and down guy. And I think when you have guys that come up like that, that do damage, even if they're two, three time a week type players for you, that's helpful. Yeah, if you get a homer two a week, then you're like, all right. Found money if you can make that actually work. So familiar place for the Yankees and a familiar place for Harrison Bader. Unfortunately, I was pretty pumped about what he was doing once he finally got healthy because I was willing to take on that risk back on draft day.

And I thought I was right. These guys better than the rest. IKF. Bowers. It's so hard because IKF is exactly the type of real player that earns the playing time that you want them to give to Franchi because Franchi has the ceiling. So then you have to bet on the guy that you think has the much

lower ceiling because you are more confident he's going to play. But Bauer seems like threading the needle between those things. I would agree with that, I think, of the options. Good enough at all the different things that you're just going to put them out

there. But a 34.4% K rate. Yeah, I know you're getting good power. Better than Frenchie, though. Right. It's still ugly, even though it's better than it was for Jake Bowers. This episode is brought to you

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That's just $267 bi-weekly. Cash value of $40,294. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. Let's talk about Grayson Rodriguez for another moment. He came up on yesterday's show briefly, and we were asked, I think it was Jay Thomas on Twitter that tweeted at us, about Grayson Rodriguez's pitch mix and specifically issues with the cutter. And this is something you've written about. When I look at Grayson Rodriguez, I see a guy that actually is pretty fixable. There's a lot to work with.

The Orioles are showing us they can develop and tweak pitchers in ways that makes them a lot more effective. Tyler Wells being a really good example of that. And Rodriguez certainly brings a lot more in the kit to start with than Tyler Wells had when they brought Wells into the organization. So what did you see as you did the deep dive on Rodriguez's pitch mix and some of the issues he was experiencing? I know you mentioned tipping on yesterday's show, but how long do you think this demotion is going to last? And just how soon do you think we could really see Grayson Rodriguez put the pieces back together as he works through it at AAA? Yeah, I mean, there's some scuttlebutt that there's some sort of Hawkeye-identified tipping going on where maybe some aspect of his delivery is different for the different pitches. But I see a real simple thing when I look through the line of, you know,

plus fastball by Stuff Plus, plus slider, plus curveball, average changeup, poor cutter by Stuff Plus. And he's really emphasized the cutter. And if you look at the results, the results have not been good on the cutter. So I don't know why he's throwing the cutter so much which just suggests to me that you know there's something about his fastball that he doesn't want to throw it as much against lefties um and so he doesn't want uh he can't just be a curve change up guy against lefties so he's brought this cutter in i would say okay fine don't throw the cutter much against righties he's throwing it too much against righties uh throw it uh you know half half uh you know half the time you would throw your fastball against lefties throw cutter uh use it sparingly

use it in that way um and become who you were against righties dominate the righties with the fastball the slider the curve and the change so um you know there are some command issues but a 99 location plus again is not uh you know bottom shelf command it's not it's not a problem it can't be fixed so i would look through the hawkeye and see if there was something that he was uh tipping i would uh reduce the cutter usage um and uh i would identify a plan of attack against lefties yeah all things that are reasonably fixable i mean if you told me it's going to be four or five starts at triple a and then we're going to see grace marigas again around the fourth of july or the all-star break i think that would make a lot of sense i think in redraft leagues

it's really tough to hold somebody for a month when they're giving you nothing, especially when there's no certainty about the quality of the innings you're going to get once he comes back, but there's still so much to like in this profile long-term. He would a hundred percent fit into the, I'm not playing for right now, but I'm close for next year.

I'm going to take my chance for next year because that innings total, you know, the ceiling on that will go up even more so long as he avoids injury this year. That's the key to continuing to push that season workload up is just keeping him on the field this year. A couple thoughts, too, about how could someone that was performing so well in the minor leagues and had such great numbers come up and come to the big leagues and then have such a tough time.

Derek Shelton last night at the ballpark talked about how sometimes players are dominating with less than perfect mechanics or they're getting away with things in the minor leagues that the major leagues will not let them get away with. They're getting away with things in the minor leagues that the major leagues will not let them get away with. You know, and as opposed and the stuff plus thing, that's it's a it's an importance that it shows you the importance of how much your pitch mix matters. And like, you know, his stuff plus was through the charts in the minor leagues. He wasn't throwing that cutter.

he wasn't throwing that cutter. But he did identify some shortcoming in the way his pitches fit together that he needed the cutter. It's sad. Not every pitching process works out. He could still not work out in the long run, but given what I see on some of these pitches, I think it's just finishing school.

He's just got to make that last leap. Yeah, and it's not like we've seen him even spend a full season at the AAA level yet. So it wouldn't be surprising if another month or two did the trick for Grayson Rodriguez. Let's get to some second-chance league surprises. You mentioned your bold predictions earlier. One of your bold predictions was that Kevin Gossman would win the AL Cy Young, and I think that's one that looks pretty good. And I think what we're seeing in a lot of drafts at the end of draft season to

someone who now goes inside the top 15 kind of a fringy first rounder second or third starting pitcher off the board i think it was strider mcclanahan gossman if i remember the order correctly this is legit and i i was worried about him a little bit last year because we saw the whip jump up to a one two four that was the highest whip he'd posted since 2019. So I was wondering what was going to happen with another year of facing teams in the AL East. And I think he's answered all of those questions and then some. Pushing the K rate up a bit, keeping some of the walk rate gains from last season, and

keeping that home run rate in check. That's been a huge part of the last three seasons now for Kevin Gossman. The home runs that plagued him for the early part of his career really just don't seem like an issue anymore. Yeah, I've got some projections and rankings coming out on Friday and looking right now at the projections for the rest of season. 317 ERA, 29% projected strikeout rate. He's got a 303 ERA and a 32% strikeout rate he's got a 303 era and a 32 percent uh strikeout rate so

um you know our model believes that he's uh that he's doing exactly what he's earned um and so uh i'm i'm fully in on the gossman hype train um you know you mentioned that corbin burns had dropped down to uh it dropped down a little bit, but not fully. Yeah, it's not as much as you'd think. The range, there have been four drafts completed now as of Wednesday, and the earliest he'd gone was pick 17. The latest was pick 35, so kind of in the mid-20s, I think, is where it all averages out right now. It's not nearly as much of a drop as I would have expected, but I think one thing to keep in mind is some of the second-chance leagues

are gladiator leagues, which means there are no benches, and you have to just find guys who are completely healthy right now, who are performing right now. So I don't think it necessarily impacts Burns necessarily, but it's more the certainty of volume volume matters a lot in this format and i think there's still no doubt about burns's volume and i think people can pretty reasonably look at what he's done in the last two months and say okay if this is as bad as it gets skills wise it could be quite a bit worse a 368 era and a 119 whip in this run environment is

actually not that bad. And there's a very good chance that he's better than that the rest of the way. More likely than not, he's better than he has been so far going forward. .304 projected ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate. So our model says the strikeout rate is going to rise to meet his strikeout rates from the past, and that he's going to beat his K-BB going forward. So this is exactly the kind of stuff that Stuff Plus was designed for. You look at K-BB and you say he looks below average.

You look at his stuff, he's easily above average. So I think he's going to perform to the back of his baseball card going forward. And I think, man, if I got him with a 30-second pick, I'd be pretty excited. Yeah, imagine if you were in a 15-teamer coming back at that round two, end of round two, beginning of round three turn. Never would have thought, yeah. And you went Acuna, Burns, and someone else, some other hitter that you like there.

You can do whatever you want. You've got a nice 1-2 combo right there. That's real nice. Joe Ryan makes the leap ADP-wise. Pick 34 ranges like 19 to 44 overall. Added the sweeper. I mean, that's the thing, right? You add a pitch to something like what Joe Ryan already had.

So this is a solid pitcher that we trust most of the time. Now he's got this extra weapon. This, to me, feels like a slight overcorrection. That's going to happen when you draft in season. I would be susceptible to this. If I were in the room drafting, what's happening so far would carry more weight than it probably should. But how much has Joe Ryan's ceiling changed for you with the addition of that sweeper?

Well, I hate Google Sheets, and I can't get you his projections. But, you know, what's also interesting is not just a sweeper or it's multiple sweepers and a really interesting conversation with Alex Fast about this over at Pitcher List. And so I do think that one thing that he's teaching me, Joe Ryan is teaching me, is that I love, you know, players with really good fastballs, young pitchers with really good fastballs that have shown at least enough secondaries where you can dream on them and you can see how they might might improve them. uh, might improve them. So, uh, if you're looking at Taj Bradley and you say, well, the fastball command is not great. And are these other pitches that great? I don't know, man, I'm still betting on Taj Bradley. It's a great fastball. Bryce Miller is having some issues on the, on the slider, not getting swings, still a great fastball. Bobby Miller, great fastball, you know, Tanner Bybee, great fastball. So, you know, uh, in this case, Joe Ryan, great fastball you know tanner bybee great fastball so you know uh in this case joe ryan great fastball

and now the secondaries are meeting it i think the uh being excited about him is is worth it going just a little off script for a minute i'm thinking about luis medina because i'm just i'm sorting the the fan graphs fastball leaderboard and if you watch luis medina like there's there's stuff there there's no doubt about that there's a lot of where's it going kind of built into that we talked about this maybe a month ago at a certain point tools for hitters and just raw stuff for pitchers can be so good that you shouldn't give up on a guy but if something is fundamentally flawed to the point that the tools can't really be unlocked or it's going to just take forever you know let someone else go through the growing

pains clearly Luis Medina is the kind of guy it's going to take a while if it happens but where does he fall for you does he fall into that too risky category or does he actually show so much raw stuff that you would actually bet on the profile that the command could come around or get to an acceptable level to the point where he could make it as a starter? 94 location plus is really rough. I mean, that's 95, 96 is where I usually have

the bottom shelf for starters. So I think he's a future reliever. 97 location plus on the fastball though. 98 on the slider. Maybe if he reduced usage of the curve and change and really tightened it up and just became more of a two pitch pitcher. But then he becomes a two pitch pitcher and has the issues that come along with that. So he's like a pickup or a throw in yeah okay i'm just just curious because

the idea really pops on that the fastball stuff or fastball scouting grade leaderboard they have over at fangraphs the uh other guy that kind of stands out on that list by the way is dre jameson i know they're using him in the bullpen right now. I think he would also fit into our conversation from the Tuesday show this week. Players you want to trade for that probably wouldn't cost a lot and could help you in the not-so-distant future. It's not hard for me to look at that group of starters as it is currently constructed and still imagine a world in which Dre Jamon has a rotation spot to call his own. That is not hard to do in a rotation that features Tommy Henry and Zach Davies and a struggling Ryan Nelson.

There's three reasonable paths into that rotation if Dre Jameson shows electric stuff in a multi-inning relief role again. Yeah, yeah. And I mean, that's why I think brandon fought is uh gonna stick quickly checks his fan graphs page to find out he has not been demoted he has been yes well wrong on that one nice i do think brandon fought is going to come back you know and i do think there'll be a rotation spot waiting for him because i do not believe in tommy henry and as much as i like ryan nelson you know the results have not been there um so i think that dre jameson has a window um you know the locations have not

been good for him either you know he has not been good at commanding it. He's throwing harder, which is a benefit to him. Going up from 95 to 97. But that's related somewhat to the shorter stints. And it has not been good for his command. But somewhere in there could be a real optimal. It's a Harrison Bader thing almost. Can we take the good velo and the good strikeout rates and good whiff rates and put them together with the good walk rates if then you could have a real breakout on your hands and so he's definitely

a guy of interest and somebody I have I would have a head of Medina for sure I would also say with Dre Jamison I'd be surprised long-term if we don't start to see more of the other pitches. We see a lot of fastball slider from him. That seems premature based on scouting reports and some of the expectations for him to have four pitches in the arsenal, more change-ups, more curveballs.

Something should be there. It shouldn't just be two pitches for Jamison if they want him to make it as a starter. Put him on the list as a longer-term, easy-to-get player right now that could actually be in this rotation. Maybe in the second half of the season. A lot can change.

They may just see him as their best option eventually. Injuries could open the door. The curve is a 130-stuff-plus curve, and he uses it 0.8% of the time. Now, of course, it could be a small sample thing, but there's enough promise there where I'd say, hey, let's try some curves. And don't forget about the Amarillo-Reno combo for AA and AAA and what that does to D-backs, pitchers.

It screws their head. A lot of that still has to be undone once they get to the big league level in Arizona. Here's one that hurts the pod. It's Turi Ruiz. Pick 66 in the second chance leagues so far. Range pretty tight too. Pick 59 to pick 74.

I think this is more of a question of are you comfortable building teams with a guy that creates so much of his value from that category and really just leaves you in need of surplus power? If you do that early, that's a little different than doing it late. And I mean, if we didn't like history Ruiz 125 picks later, back in late March, I'm guessing you're not turning around on history Ruiz and saying, I like this now. Ah, I might. Really? And here's the difference. On a year-to-year basis, betting on this profile, I think, is as fraught with risk as betting on miles straw year to year okay you know but within the year

i can't believe this is happening within the year knowing that he's built this much of a runway for himself you know almost like like you know i would say with certainty that he won't get sent down you know with fairly good certainty that he's not going to strike out above league average rate strike out above league average rate. Right? Yeah, you could probably say that at this point. I don't know. Those are things that you did not know going into the season.

Yeah, I mean, part of what makes him safe for the next few months is that they almost certainly won't have a better option to throw out there in center. He's one of the few good stories. They're going to have a league leader on their team. You certainly can't say that about 2024. Who knows what happens to this roster going through another winter. There's still so much I don't like here. I think the Miles Straw comparison is pretty fair. I think when you look at the quality of contact,

you're not drafting a Sturridge because of the quality of contact, you're not drafting a Sturri Ruiz because of the quality of contact, right? You're drafting him for speed first. You're hoping that the K rate is low enough and that he sprays the ball well enough to be good on average. What's interesting to me is that if you did the very lazy thing and sort of tripled up the counting stats, he'd be at 72 RBIs at season's end and 72 runs, which really isn't terrible, even though he has to lead off for that team to get to those numbers. That's better than you'd expect for the almost zero power sort of player. And then, of course, you're talking about someone who's going to flirt with 80 steals. Even when steals are easier to find, 80 steal players are

a pretty big difference maker. So maybe this is more of a roster construction preference. Are you comfortable getting the large percentage of your steals from one player? I've always been a little bit, in recent years, reluctant to go after a player who I thought was going to give me a third of my steals or even 50% of my steals. Because if that player gets hurt, I'm taking a massive hit in the category. You're not going to find another player like this on the wire, most likely. So this to me feels like an even bigger overcorrection

than Joe Ryan, even though I understand the process by which people get there. 27 for 31 as a base dealer with a 340 OBP, it's a lot of green lights. But as a frighteningly low hard hit percentage 21.2 percent hard hit rate like fine you don't want to lift the ball because you can't okay

hit it harder than that more often a 21.2 percent hard hit rate is a problem yeah I think I think it's uh it's you know it's possible the next year uh he hits 237 316, 302 as Myles Straw is doing right now. I mean, that's... Rest of season has that baked in too, though. 244, 300, 348. We're drafting a player with that slash line in the 60s? That's the bad X rest of season. That's the bad X.

I mean, take the best projection rest of season. It's still 323. Yeah, 250, 32424 375 at pick 66 even with a lot of steals i don't know if i can bring myself to do that josh like we have a little bit of a bias towards uh towards real life players right he's not a great real life player but i think i think that bias is generally okay because i think playing time is critically important. It is accounting. It's an accumulation game when you're playing Roto.

You try to max out everything possible. I don't know. Maybe there's a failure in logic for me with Ruiz, and maybe he's exceedingly valuable. Maybe he's the player that people years ago wanted Billy Hamilton to be, where he's good enough to keep the job, and he hits enough and gets on base enough

to steal 70 or 80 bases and is he's fine if you build around him correctly that could could be the case but i just don't think i'm committing to those three ruiz if that's the the new range in which he's going to be drafted i think josh lowe is tougher That one's a little bit trickier, right? He's a top 100 guy now in the second chance leagues. Pick 78. Better all-around player. Better all-around player. Range is pick 71 to 94. More balanced production, of course.

Similar problems exist if you look at the rest of season projections relative to what he has done, right? You're not going to see anything close to the line so far. In what is expected to happen. Going forward by projection. But you see double digit home runs. You see double digit steals. Obviously this is a raised line of score runs. 3-0-0. Yeah.

The interesting thing here is the K rate. How much do you trust the improvements. In the strikeout rate now that we're a third of the way into the season? For what it's worth, Lowe's playing time share is a little smaller than some of the other guys that have been true everyday players to this point.

I also tell you this. I would believe the strikeout rate improvement a whole lot more if his swinging strike rate wasn't exactly the same. It's a really strange thing that his walk rate went down his swinging strike rate stayed the same and his chase rate went up i know there's some there's some compelling stuff in the heat maps about closing up the hole but i would just venture that the strikeout rate creeps up over the course of the season to meet his uh swinging strike rate the swinging strike rate is in a bigger sample.

It's per pitch. And it looks exactly like it did before. And if you look at Josh Lowe's rolling strikeout rate graph, which makes for great radio, we can all look at it together. Unless you're driving, look at it later. Do not pull up graphs on it together unless you're driving look at it later do not do not pull up graphs on fan graphs while you're in the car as the driver he took he he like really started the season with a 15 strikeout rate and like look like a completely different person for the last 25 games his rolling strikeout rate has been 25 or higher so i think if I put the over under somewhere for his strikeout rate,

rest of season, it would be north of 25. Yeah. Projections in 29 to 30% range. Yeah. And that puts us down. So, you know,

projections aside, I'm just looking at what he's done and the rolling, the rolling aspect of what he's done most recently. And it's, it's pushing towards where he's been in the past so i would say that you know even if i am more rosy on him than the projections i would say 27 strikeout rate from here on out he's at 22.7 and uh i would not project a 300 uh batting average for someone with a 27 strikeout rate let's let's do that who else has a 27 strikeout rate we've got uh we've got 30 guys with a 27 strikeout rate or higher and the highest batting average is aaron judge at 303 uh riley green with that massive babbitt uh and mike trout with a 277 uh so you've got

basically three players four players above 270 and 27 players under 270 so i would say most likely i'd put the over under on the rest of season uh batting average for josh low at 250 and this is i'm like i'm being a little bit more uh i'm being a little bit nicer to him done his projections would you take rubies over low if we're looking at them in the similar range I mean there's no I would take Lowe you would take Lowe even though starts against lefties will be hard to come by because he's doing enough even in the big side platoon role he has has done enough in the big side platoon role to make that a moot point so far I'm not certain that's going to continue

i like josh low it's worth it's worth it i mean i think i think so he also is the kind of guy you can look at it who gets into games when he doesn't start him yeah okay so they're definitely looking for a chance to to bring him in uh even if he didn't start the game. And so he's not a full, full platoon guy where he's just going to sit on the bench for those other games. So I'm into it. But there is some risk. Like, Ryan McMahon is just really bothering me in my main because, yeah, I'm super excited to put him in when he's in colorado but

then every time he's not in colorado i'm like man i know the numbers are gonna be there at the end of the year but they would be better if i had someone else to put in here and then all of a sudden i have to have another third baseman on my roster yeah it's uh you see like you see a weekend for josh josh low where you're just like oh, he's about to get two lefties in three games. I wish I had someone else to put in here. I was just looking at their upcoming schedule too. It's not bad. They've got a double header

this weekend, so they're going to see four right-handed starters between Friday and Sunday. They see all righties in the Monday to Thursday window, so three for three there. And then he does get two lefties next weekend. So he would have been probably in your lineup to begin this week, in, of course, for the weekend, in for next week,

out for the following weekend based on that. 75% usage in those NFBC formats. Daily leagues are totally different. I think obviously in a daily league, there's a ton to like because you can just mix them and match them on the days where he's not playing. One more player I wanted to ask you, but I don't know if we've talked about him all season, Merrill Kelly. Merrill Kelly has an ERA under three, has the best whip we've seen from him since coming back other than 2020, which was about half as many innings as he's thrown so far this year. We've seen the K rate jump,

a 27.4% K rate. Way above where he's been in the past. The walk rate has gone up along with it. But the home run rates come down. So just looking at the analog skills. Much more good than bad. What do you see in this profile? Merrill Kelly jumped to pick 129.

So that's up about 100 or so picks from where he was going. At the later part of draft season are you looking at this as legitimate sustained growth or someone who's probably had his best two months in the first two months of the season one thing that has improved uh and that's it's an interesting thing to improve because he didn't really throw this pitch last year. He has a new pitch. The slider. And we're such a slider league. That anytime someone adds a slider. Even though he's only throwing it.

Five. Four or five times a game. Or whatever. I'm in. I like this addition. Because he is a guy that. Depends on having a lot of different pitches at his disposal but now he has a third above average pitch by stuff plus and slider curve

change uh takes some pressure off of his hard pitches which are not in the like madison bum garner 67 stuff plus on the four seam territory you know they're not terrible they're just not great he's a he's your typical you know kitchen sink type pitcher but he's got the command that he had last year and now he has an extra pitch uh not necessarily saying he's going to continue doing uh everything he's doing uh but uh that is a recipe for believing in the higher strikeout rate to some extent. And the higher whiff rate supports it. And the new pitch supports it. So if I'm looking through, I'm going to shop projections here.

Oh, look. Oh, look. It started working. Nice. The spreadsheet's back. The spreadsheet is back. Does Kelly have an E on the back end? A visual on the

screen, though, if you are watching us on YouTube. It's me trying to find him. Just covering our faces so you can't see our shame right now. Am I just like misspelling all his names there? Here we go. Two R's two L's. No,

it's not finding it. I don't care. Well, you'll find out on Friday, but, uh, I, you know,

I just like this. Uh, I like this profile. It's, it's the kind of guy that I'd like to bet on in season, it's the kind of guy that I like to have a share or two of later in drafts

because I think that you can drop them fairly easily if they're not there and then sometimes you just get these pop up seasons like Kelly's giving you right now, I don't really disbelieve I disbelieve the 2ERA but I don't disbelieve that he's going to be useful going forward. It's just a really strange thing to wrap my head around that I would want to choose Merrill

Kelly as a third starting pitcher in a 15-team league. But what I popped up on the screen, by the way, if you are watching us on YouTube and you should check this out, check out where he's locating his six pitches yes he has six different pitches by savant there are some very sharp and specific location strategies with those arsenals with the arsenal i mean the change up living would would be that'd be down and in to righties the curveball kind of down and away to righties if you're just trying to visualize it the slider same thing or backfooting it to lefties i mean there's just there's a lot to like it really interesting foreseeing fastball strategy too i mean yes he's doing some above the zone but his

foreseeing looks like it's designed to maybe look like his sinker and go to similar places as a sinker and a cutter and then do different things? So it looks like he's kind of playing with that. Like, oh, you think it's going to be the cutter. And so it's going to cut in off the plate. And so you lay off of it instead of the support seam. And it stays true and stays on the plate. Called strike on the edge, yeah. Yeah, so that's what command can do for you.

I think you also look at these heat maps and go, oh gosh, like, you know, three inches in the bad direction. That's what command can do for you. I think you also look at these heat maps and go, oh gosh, like, you know, three inches in the bad direction and this guy sucks. So, but that's one thing that Location Plus tells you is that in season, you can bet on something like this, but season to season, it's a little bit harder.

Yeah, pretty interesting start to his year though, for sure. And glad we, glad i just saw where he was going in those second chance drafts because i don't have him anywhere so i have not noticed how good it was until uh until i saw that uh one more question before we go a bit of a long episode today so apologies for that if uh if that somehow bothers you and you're still listening that doesn't apply to anybody we had multiple multiple questions come in about Nolan Gorman, and the basic question was, what are our takes?

What do we think about his future potential? Is he a future 30 home run hitter, future 40 home run hitter? Where do we put the cap on his power ceiling based on what we're seeing so far in terms of his strikeout rate? We know, of course, that Gorman, there have been some questions about where he fits in long term defensively they played him enough at second base already this season for him to qualify there next year so you don't have to worry about anything along those lines but where are you at in terms of Gorman's potential as a as an offensive player like do you see him as a a clear-cut like possible

league leader in home runs someday you know or do you see something a tad below that? I suppose there could be some small limit on his home run potential due to his park, which has been playing in different directions. Now I kind of want to check that park factor.

86 for the three-year rolling home run number. But yes, I want to turn it off. I want to turn the three-year rolling home run number. But yes, I want to turn it off. I want to turn the three-year rolling off. I'll race you. Cardinals are. Yeah, now it's a 122 again. This happened last year where it was playing early. The fifth friendliest place for homers this year.

Yeah, but last year did that for a while. Then it wasn't like that for the whole season, which was really strange. This is why we use three-year rolling. Yes. Why did you have me turn that off? Because it plays hot sometimes. Anyway, 23rd. I would suppose if the park plays the way it normally does,

I think they are building things around St. Louis, around the park, and way it normally does that uh they are i think they are building things around st louis around the park um and the park factors can change but anyway uh i suppose you might want to uh roll him back from you know just say uh just saying you know on pace for 39 homers or whatever um i think i'd be more comfortable you know uh projecting him for you know 35 homers on the year and uh i believe in that i believe in 35 homers a year this is outstanding raw power outstanding barrel rate outstanding i even love he's not hitting 50 fly ball so it's not somebody that's just you know robbing himself to to hit homers you know he's not he's not just trying to put everything straight up in the air

like David VR or something you know he's he's got a really good mix I think that's partially why he's striking out less this year is his fly ball rates down a little bit I don't know man I'm in the tank I wish I was in the tank earlier uh i did see the strikeout rate concerns is that something that i don't always love um i know michael salfino who writes on our site was saying a you know 30 strikeout rate in the minor leagues is a is a hard no for him uh gorman in 2022 had a 36.7% and 188 plate appearances in AAA. But he also, the year before, had 19%. So, I don't know.

I think this is a guy that can live where he's living. I think the huge thing for me, and I'm with Salfino in terms of being alarmed by a 30% K rate in the minor leagues. I'm not saying that's a thing you shouldn't worry about. Where I think I want more information is in the age column. I'm not saying that's a thing you shouldn't worry about. Where I think I want more information is in the age column. I think it makes a huge difference. If you're Nolan Gorman or you're Ellie De La Cruz is another example, someone in the minors right now,

and you are two, three, four years younger than everybody else at your level and you're striking out 30% of the time, that is much less of a problem than if you're age appropriate for the level. So I would always want to know more about the player in that regard before I make a real sort of judgment about swing and miss problems. Yeah. And for a couple of different

reasons, which is that a, the younger you are, the more years you have a potential strikeout rate improvement, uh, since strikeout rate improves until about 26 27 like many others that stats and then b if you uh missed yesterday's project prospect uh there was at the end a piece by nathan stoltz that pointed out that every uh year of age in the minor leagues um is worth 25 wrc plus so basically uh you know in double a in 2021 when he was 21 years old it looks like uh maybe yeah 21 21 that year uh in double a when he put up a 128 wrc plus and a 27 strikeout rate he was uh two years younger than the average player or maybe a year and a half you could ostensibly add 30 or 40 points of wrc plus uh to that number and And that puts that strikeout rate in another context, like the way you're saying.

Yeah, I mean, it's absurd power. I think it's 40 plus home run power. I really do, even in that ballpark. And I think it comes with a better average than you'd expect for someone who swings and misses like that. I've compared Gorman from a raw skills perspective to Austin Riley in the past. I think you could see Gorman follow a trajectory like that.

If you told me Nolan Gorman is going to keep hitting the way he's hitting or something close to it for the rest of the season, where does he go in 2024 drafts? Probably somewhere in that 30 to 40 range overall, and it would be justified. So I think he's a really good long-term player. We probably got a little too hung up on the K-rate and didn't take enough stock of the raw power and the

overall production. He's been a tick below average at one stop. A 97 WRC plus is the worst he's ever been at any level while being young for the level everywhere he's played. Yeah, and I think some of our concerns weren't necessarily long-term, but more short

term too in terms of like where does he fit on the roster this year and i think you know jordan walker's promotion and demotion has to do with this team you know wanting to field a contender every year and uh wanting to win the next game and if nolan gorman's had struggled at all i think offensively maybe due to a strikeout rate uh then the defensive concerns would have been a bigger deal. And he might be in the minor leagues instead of Jordan Walker. Exactly. I think that was more of an open question.

We kind of went 50% on the concerns, right? Yep. Yeah. All right. Well, we appreciate the questions about Nolan Gorman. I got made multiples of those so i figured it was worth talking about him on today's episode more questions to come on future episodes you can send those our way rates and barrels at gmail.com if you don't have a subscription

two dollars a month gets you in the door at the athletic.com slash rates and barrels you can find eno on twitter at eno saris you can find me at derek from my part it's going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels we are back with you on Friday. Thanks for listening.