Rates & Barrels - Trade Deadline Day 2021!

Episode Date: July 30, 2021

Eno, Britt & DVR discuss a busy two-day stretch of activity leading into Friday's trade deadline including a potential blockbuster between the Dodgers and Nationals that will send Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to Los Angeles, the Yankees' addition of Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo, and a big deal between the Twins and Blue Jays that sent Jose Berríos to Toronto for prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic for just $3.99/mo: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels presented by Topps. Check out Topps Project 70, celebrating 70 years of Topps baseball cards. Derek Van Ryper, Eno Saris, Britt Giroli here with you on this Friday. It is trade deadline Friday. We are recording just after 1130 Eastern time. So we've got four and a half hours before the deadline. And I am hoping, praying, willing with all of my strength that we get breaking news during the pod

because we didn't on Wednesday. And I love nothing more than the Eno breaking news cut in. So we were watching Twitter. We talked about the deals that already happened. We talked about a teardown happening in D.C. Ever since Britt has joined the show, there has been a surprising amount of Nationals content to talk about, and it's not by design. We are not only talking about the Nats because that was Britt's old beat.

It's just the way things have played out so far. The teardown is in progress. Now the mega deal, the big deal from Thursday is not actually official just yet. That's the Max Scherzer Trey Turner trade with guys like Josiah Gray, Keebert Ruiz, Gerardo Carrillo, and Donovan Casey

supposedly going back to the Nats. So still some issues to iron out there. And there was a point on Thursday where it looked like Max Scherzer was going to San Diego. So we'll have to dig into that as well. Britt, what happened with Scherzer and San Diego? I was moving yesterday. It was another one of my moving days,

like moving day five of 12. So I didn't even realize that the Padres were closing in before the Dodgers swooped in and got a deal that could be finalized before today's deadline. What was your theory, though? Wait, you had a theory. Yeah, let's hear your theory. Oh, that's right.

I had a theory I told you guys about before the show. My theory was this. The Padres were getting close, right? And let's say the Padres and the Dodgers are like Frank Fritz and Mike from American Pickers, right? The two guys in that show. And they're doing a pick, and they're always looking at stuff. Frank sees an oil can and a rusty old bike that he wants.

But he starts only with the oil can. In this case, Scherzer's the oil can, right? So Mike swoops in. Mike goes, oh, I got to get both. I'm going to bundle. They bundle stuff on that show all the time. So Mike swoops in and says, hey, I'll give you $2.50 for the old rusty Schwinn and the oil can, and just leaps ahead of Frank because he's making a more

compelling offer than just $50 for the oil can. And I think that, that is how the Dodgers got Trey Turner involved in the deal, right? So you have Scherzer, the oil can in this example, Trey Turner, the old rusty Schwinn, because that's what they buy on that show. And the Dodgers said the only way we can get Turner is if we actually go ahead and bundle him up with Scherzer. Because then we can make a better offer with young players that we wouldn't be able to make if the deal was only for Max Scherzer. So that was my theory with how the Dodgers stepped in front of the Padres. But I have no idea how the Padres didn't just counter with something better because they've got a more robust system. Yeah. I don't know what happened.

I really don't. There's a couple different theories out there. I think the issue with this trade more than others was that Scherzer had 10-5 rights. So even if, and I had somebody after Ken Rosenthal said this is close, I had a front office executive text me, they're close as well. So this is something that they believed in the Nationals front office. Now, I did have somebody float the idea of, well, what if Mike Rizzo purposely played the media to drive up the price, which is another possibility, doesn't really fit Mike Rizzo's MO, just knowing him, covering him. Yeah, he usually complains about the media,

right? He's usually like, you guys got that totally wrong. Yeah, I just don't see him orchestrating these leaks so that another team steps in. I think they thought they were close to the Padres. I think what people don't factor in is Max Scherzer's agent is Scott Boris, who absolutely lives for chaos and drama you saw John Heyman minutes before this trade came out say that the angels are another mystery team in the mix like I just kind of imagine John Heyman with the mystery

team yeah like you just which you know comes from Boris and so you I was just kind of imagining Scott Boris sitting in the background stirring the pot right like it's all this is going on all this chaos. He's like, yeah,

let's circle this way. No, Max, let's circle that way. So I think that probably had a lot to do with it as well. I long thought that the Dodgers made the most sense. I think we've talked about this on this show. It made the most sense in the end.

The crazy part to me was them trading Trey Turner, which signaled a total rebuild. And I wrote about it this morning and kind of why it was the tough but probably fair decision for a team as window is closed. But to me, I think, you know, the Padres were probably in the mix. And then the Dodgers were like, you know what, we're gonna add this guy, this guy and this guy. And I think the Dodgers system, just the way it's set up they can trade those guys and everyone's like oh the dodgers gave up nothing right well the nationals are the worst

minor league system in baseball so i think for them it has impact i mean you can argue about whether they got enough for trey turner and people are like well you get trey turner for two years you get trey turner for 14 months yeah it's not like a two full season type of thing right um so I think what ultimately probably happened was the Nationals thought they were close Max Scherzer and Scott Boris have to give it the final okay and you know at the last minute another team kind of panicked maybe saw the reports maybe didn't and you know this is still not finalized which shows you that there's just a lot of stuff to sift through when you're dealing with a guy who has 10-5 rights and the kind of you know veteran that Max Scherzer is so um it was a real wild day I was up till 2 eastern time as I told you guys

because the Nats kept making moves after that it was just I you know people were like don't go to bed I'm like but I want to And they just kept making move after move. The Nationals really set the tone yesterday. And I don't know if they're going to be able to make any more moves. I think they're going to try. Jan Gomes. Jan Gomes. Yeah.

I think he's going to be the next guy. Josh Bell, they should listen on. I just love that there's an MLB trade rumors update. Two teams eyeing Jan Gomes. Okay. Yeah, eyeing. I think DVR should earmuff this because I would trade Victor Robles. I would trade anyone not named Juan Soto right now.

Well, you got to have somebody to play next to him. Like literally anyone. I would trade literally everyone not named Juan Soto and build around Juan Soto. That's what I would do. But yeah. Yesterday was insane, guys. Don't you love this trade rumor season? It is chaos. I like, one

thing that you said about panic kind of sets in for me is that the Dodgers were like, we might have a one-game playoff. And we might be in that one-game playoff against the Padres. And it would suck if the Padres rolled Max Scherzer out for that game. So, you know, and then another thing that is kind of coming to mind for me, it seems like a buyer's market.

The prices on these players, I think, you know, they seem fine. Like, they seem like, like, think about it from the perspective of the Dodgers. You have right now, by Fangraph's war, the second best catcher in baseball in Will Smith. And you have him for another five years. So it's not like, you know, it's not like he's going to run out. So in the next five years, you're going to have to be like, well, what do we do with Kybert Ruiz, right? Also, Ruiz's power hasn't's going to run out. So in the next five years, you're going to have to be like, well, what do we do with Kybert Ruiz? Right. Also, Ruiz's power hasn't really come to the fore.

So instead, you've got a guy who's like a lot of contact, could be a good catcher, might just be a guy, you know, a catcher guy, like, you know, a guy who's like the 15th best catcher in the big leagues or the 20th best catcher in the big leagues. So that seems very tradable. Josiah Gray, by my stealth numbers, isn't that exciting, but also is just a pitcher. He hasn't established himself in the major leagues. He still has a fairly high bust rate around him.

Those two pieces as the headliner for a Trey Turner that you're getting back for next year and the best rental pitcher, starting pitcher on the market, seems like a totally attainable price. If I was the Dodgers, I would have done that twice and done it a third time. And then I think also of the Gallo return. The Yankees didn't give up any of their top five prospects. Yeah.

Yeah, I thought that was pretty strange as well. For 14 months of Joey Gallo. Are you kidding me? Yeah. Because let's focus on the dodger side just for a minute how do you not get gavin lux for the nationals in this trade gavin lux is a short-term loser from this deal for sure because the padres wouldn't even go to you know the parties wouldn't even go to hassle i think the potter's gone to hassle they would

have gotten scherzer would you have done that No. But I wasn't in that war room. I mean, it must have been pretty intense. There's still Berrios on the table, and they still have Yu Darvish. So, you know, I bet you they feel pretty good about, you know. But if they don't get, now there's a lot of pressure on them to get Berrios, I feel like. Yeah. I mean, I think for the Nats return, it did seem one player too light. It doesn't seem like a bad return. It just was surprising

to me. It's definitely more than they would have got if they'd only flipped Scherzer, hence the bundling example that I threw out there as I drink from an American Pickers coffee mug this morning, which is kind of an interesting coincidence. But... Josiah Gray, I think

he's a good big league starter when it's all said and done. Probably like a number three. Maybe he becomes more than that, but I think he's a good big league starter when it's all said and done. Probably like a number three. Maybe he becomes more than that, but I think he's a three. I think Kybert Ruiz is going to be a starting catcher in the big leagues for a long time. Even if he doesn't develop power, he's been very young for the level.

He's got a very good hit tool. Finding a catcher for a half decade, that's worth quite a bit. I don't know if they're going to get a whole lot of mileage out of Donovan Casey. The numbers look really good, but he's been old for the level. I'm curious to see how quickly they give him an opportunity at the big league level. And then Carrillo, who knows?

Another pitching option they have, and they need pitchers. We've talked about their inability to develop pitching on this show for a long time. To Britt's point about Robles, I think the only drawback to dealing him right now is that it's rock bottom for his value. If you can just say, okay, we've committed to not playing for this season. He's going to play every day. He's going to continue to try and learn

how to adjust to big league pitching. If he finishes the season on a high note, the value ticks up. If we get to next year's trade deadline and they're still kind of playing for the future, by then, you've given him a calendar year to increase his value and he still has several years of control left so it's not like you're really hurting yourself that much so i think waiting on him might be the smart play just because his value has tanked so much which absolutely breaks my heart to be completely

clear the returns are not great in general like i would i would sell things that weren't sell not nailed down and maybe keep some of them if I thought they were. There's some of these returns I think you might almost want to do the qualifying offer and get a pick for them instead. Yeah, I wonder if that's what the Rockies are thinking with Trevor Story right now. We'll dig into some of the other moves that haven't happened yet a little bit later on in the show. But you mentioned this, you know, Joey Gallo goes to the Yankees and Anthony Rizzo goes to the Yankees. A couple of lefties getting a big park boost because it's Yankee Stadium. We've talked about that for a long time.

The prospects given up in both of these deals were not overwhelming in the least. Kevin Alcantara. They're like 17 years old. Yeah, Kevin Alcantara and Alexander Vizcaino go to the Cubs in the Rizzo deal. Jolie Rodriguez also going to the Bronx with Gallo in that trade. Ezekiel Duran, Glenn Otto, Josh Smith, and Trevor Halver.

I think Halver was the guy who was just on fire during the first week of the minor league season at low A. People were like, whoa, who's this guy? And it's like, he's an old college guy at low A. Calm down. Yeah, why is he in low A? Yeah, it's like he got assigned old college guy at low A. Calm down. Yeah, why is he in low A? Yeah. That was weird.

It's like he got assigned to a level that was too low. Let's see what he does against like double A pitching before we geek out about it. But Gallo, with a full season in Yankee Stadium next year, to me he's a 50 home run threat in almost any park. In that park, he should be projected to lead the league in home runs next season. I wonder how, you brought this up before we started recording,

league and home runs next season. I wonder how you brought this up before we started recording, you know, how are the Yankees fans and how will the media around that team react to the hot and cold streaks that tend to be a big part of Joey Gallo's overall good body of work. You get good production in the end. The path you take to get there is a pretty long and winding road sometimes. Yeah, like the batting average won't be

good. Yankees Twitter. Just cover it. Don't think about batting average with Joey Gallo. Look at the OBP, look at the slugging, look at the home runs. That's what he does. Those are all good. Yeah, the series against the Astros this year, we went 0 for 9 with 6 strikeouts. I'm pretty sure I was looking through the

game log that's gonna earn him a back page you know back page full splash they'll find some word to put with K's in it you know

there'll be some sort of pun with K's in it and people will be tearing their hair out. I don't know. I also think it's kind of more the same. Like, high OBP, high K, high power, that's what the Yankees have been doing so far this year. The slugging doesn't look good, but if you look at ISO, it's fine.

Like, if you take out the sort of singles luck, they slug. They barrel with the best of them. They have good eyes, but they don't really have a lot of contact. It might have been interesting to see what an Adam Frazier would have done to this team. Yeah, 45.4% chance of making the playoffs for the Yankees as play begins on Friday. They have to beat the A's, basically. Yep, Yankees versus A's, and we'll see what the A's are able to accomplish

in the next few hours. That could obviously change things quite a bit, but you're absolutely right. It's basically down to those two teams. Cleveland kind of falling out of the race at this point. It's still possible for them to make the playoffs. Blue Jays could make a run. Yeah. Blue Jays are definitely a threat. They're only two wins behind the Yankees,

and they've got two extra games still to play. I like only two wins behind the Yankees, and they've got two extra games still to play. I like these two trades for the Yankees, though, because I do think Rizzo is more like that type of player you described. He makes a lot of contact, puts a ton of balls in play. I think he'll get a bigger boost from Yankee Stadium than Gallo, relatively speaking, because of the type of hitter that he is. Gallo hits the kinds of home runs that are just moonshots everywhere. So he'll get ao hits the kinds of home runs that are just moonshots everywhere. So he'll get a

couple from the short porch, but Rizzo might actually get a significant bump down the stretch. We've been wondering where's his power been the last two years, but this creates a really odd situation for the Yankees. And again, this is like the 10th time this season I've thought about Lindsey Adler's Twitter mentions and just felt terrible for Lindsey. How do they make the pieces fit in this lineup once Luke Voigt comes back? Or is there another trade that possibly moves Voigt? Because they've been so reluctant to put Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield. But in a world where you have a healthy Rizzo and a healthy Luke Voigt, you have to play Stanton in the outfield.

And if you have Stanton and Judge, they have to play the corners, which means you have to play Joey Gallo in center. So this is a pretty bad defensive alignment for the Yankees with this sort of high variance. But dingers. Dingers, yeah. I mean, at a high variance.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, it's clear they went power over like actual, like let's make this team stronger defensively, right? Well, though Rizzo, though, I think is a good addition for them on that side, too, a little bit. But here's the thing I think of, guys, is that Stanton,

it seems like Stanton and Judge, one of the two of them is always questionable, right? Doesn't it seem like someone's always questionable to be in that light's lineup? So I say it's a good problem to have because maybe you rest those guys a little down the stretch. Maybe you're able to give them a little bit more of a blow. Yeah, I don't. It's. Yeah, maybe one of those guys is sitting every night. That could be okay.

If there's five of them, basically, or four of them, like, you know, one, two, three, four, five. There's five of them. One of them is going to sit. That's okay. Once a week, you get a blow. Yeah, you play the matchups. You know, I mean, the Yankees love the numbers.

They love the analytics. We can talk all day about if they rely too much on that and kind of lack the feel, because there might be a little bit of an argument there that, you know, the driver there seems to be all the numbers. But I think you kind of have to rely on that a little bit down the stretch. They have become a better team.

I wonder, as we sit here today, hours before the trade deadline, if the Red Sox feel the pressure to go out and actually make some moves. I mean, they did get Kyle Schwarber last night. Dude. I reported that real late last night. He's not their first baseman, though, right?

He's like an extra bat off the bench. No, I think he's their first baseman. Really? I mean, you don't think he's good defensively? No, he's a huge liability. No, at first. At first. I mean, at don't think he's good defensively? No, he's a huge liability. No, at first. At first. I mean, at first.

At first? Eh, better than the outfield. Right, that's what I'm saying. I was saying the outfield. I think he'd be okay at first. I think he's their first baseman. I think they got the first baseman. And the cool thing about Schwarber is that there are six batters in the major leagues right now that are top 30 on Fangraph graphs in both reach or chase rate and uh barrels and

gallo and schwarber are both on that list so i kind of feel like the red sox have returned one serve uh there's they've returned the volley they returned the volley they're in the game they do need another one another shoe to drop and i don't i don't i don't know who it is because i guess they're probably in on barrios but if if it's preller versus khan bloom for you know who's going to give up the best prospect for barrios it's going to be preller right because of what's in the cupboard and preller having possibly lost out on scherzer, is going to be extra motivated. I expect Preller to... If there's any way for Preller to somehow stop the Scherzer to the Dodgers situation,

if it's still pending a few hours from now, Preller's going to come in feet first through the glass on a rope and just make the best offer of all time in a trade and just get it done because that guy is just nuts when it comes to trading. If he puts Hassel on the table, maybe he'll... I think maybe he could get rid of the Will Myers money. I just don't

see them being able to get rid of Eric Hosmer money. So maybe it'll be Myers, Hassel, or instead of Hassel, maybe Weathers or Paddock, like a major league pitcher. And then for Berrios and something i don't know yeah when the scherzer rumors were going people were like oh are they gonna take the hosmer money i was like are you crazy nobody wants to take the hosmer money

they're not taking the hosmer money um for max scherzer like doesn't make sense but i do think today um theres kind of have to make some kind of... I think Preller's probably itching to make a move, right? Probably mad he missed out on Scherzer. Yes, they got Daniel Hudson last night. I don't consider that the move by a team that's right now in third place, right? They have to go out and do more. I don't know what that is. Hudson has the second best stuff among available relievers. So I think they got their sort of Craig Kimbrell for much less. They did. And I thought he was better for the Giants. I thought that was a blow to the Giants. And it seems like, you know, Giants fans are kind of

sitting there wondering like, hey, what are we going to do? I still I still think maybe some sort of Kimbrell Bryant package to the Giants. I think they're gonna they're gonna take some money on but the Red Sox, the Red Sox, what can they do? John Gray, apparently the newest rumor is that the Rockies are not going to trade John Gray, which is like, why? Couldn't you send Bart and Gray to the Red Sox and get one good prospect? Yeah. I mean, we still have four hours, guys.

So Gray could be gone by the time this episode actually drops into people's feeds right i always wonder how much posturing this time of the year right like we're not trading john gray like the nationals a few days ago but it's useless blown away to move trey turner and then they move them and it's not like a blow away deal yeah it's very reasonable it was very reasonably priced it was like like a Costco-priced player on the trade market. Posturing on a rental starter. Yeah, this wasn't a Whole Foods deal. Posturing on a rental just doesn't seem like it's going to get you very far.

We've seen the prices on rentals. They're not exciting. I'm looking at the Boston depth chart again, and I'm skeptical of Schwarber playing first base, not because I don't think he can do it, but because teams haven't asked him to do it. I think he's played one game at first base as a big league player. Yeah, so maybe they'll do that, but I wonder if they'll just play Hunter Renfro a little bit less.

Maybe go with more of a platoon in that spot. This gives them a little bit of insurance with Jaron Duran. If Duran doesn't hit enough in the final two months, they could put Kike back out there, or they could move Verdugo into center field and then play Schwarber and Renfro in the corners together. I mean, there's versatility. One game at first base. One.

Yeah. That's amazing. I thought going back to the offseason, back when the Brewers were looking for a first baseman, other teams were looking for a first baseman, I said, why not Kyle Schwarber? At one point, teams thought he could at least catch a little bit. Yeah, but that would give him all spring training to work on it, right?

You have to ask Ron Washington what he thinks about it. We really need that drop just readily available because it's an all-time great Ron Washington moment. He told me he didn't actually say that. Oh, come on, on Hollywood you jerks just be decent once in a while but about the Hosmer thing I did ask an exec about this uh I think my problem is that I want to ask the exec the top level questions and right now is not a great time to ask them like you know so I did ask like what's it like to move money right now and they're like

practically impossible and that's all i got in response because they also had to respond to 18,000 other text messages from other people yeah it's all about luck i think this time of the year too people don't realize like when you're texting and calling people, you, as long as you, if you are that person at the top, this is what one guy has told me, if you're the person at the top of their chain,

they're going to answer you first. They're not going to go scrolling back and be like, oh, you know what? Brittany bothered me two hours ago

at this same thing. Like, no. A lot of it's just about timing. Like, who's at the top? That's terrible. That means that you just

have to keep texting people. That's awful. I mean, you just like are a pest for like, I feel like I'm a pest during this whole trade deadline. Ew. Pesting. It's just people not calling you back.

You know, you just keep calling and calling. You're like, not going to stop. Not going to stop. But yeah, that's kind of how. Do you guys like as readers and followers of me, do you want me to do more of that? You're like a numbers guy. I don't want to do it. You don't need to be texting guys at midnight

about Kyle Schwarber like I had to do last night. Well, then I got a quick yes. So I was like, oh, then you have to hurry up. It's so stressful. So you want to break news. Yeah, not a lot of fun. Well, Boston, I think, will try to get one more starting pitcher. That's still on the table for me. I think they'd still like an actual infield upgrade too because

it takes a lot of pressure off of Bobby Dahlbach and some of the guys they've been trotting out there at second base. I know Christian Arroyo's had a difficult time staying healthy. They've played Michael Chavis there a bit, but I think that's one area where they could definitely use help, the right side of the infield in particular. Carlos Santana was my name. I still like that name. That could work, yeah. Yeah.

Are they players for Barrios, though? I don't know. I don't see them linked to him. I see a lot of other. I've seen the Padres. I've seen the Mariners. Speaking of trade itch, my goodness, Jerry DiPoto, as expected. He is a permanent case of trade itch.

I think it's more of like a seasonal rash for a lot of GMs. But Jerry DiPoto always has the trade itch, my goodness, Jerry DePoto as expected. He is a permanent case of trade itch. I think it's more of like a seasonal rash for a lot of GMs, but Jerry DePoto always has the trade itch. Hey, did you guys see in non-trade deadline news last night, speaking of Seattle, that Hector Santiago was suspended for testosterone for what, 80 games? 80. Something like that? And then just this morning, Starling Castro,

30 games for violating the domestic violence policy. And the Nationals are going to release him at the end of the season. So there's been like a lot of movement right now, if you're not paying attention, beyond the trade rumors. Starling Castro already had something in his past? Yeah. I think I reported it two weeks ago when they put him on that list. Yeah. He had something they were investigating. And obviously, whatever it was, they found.

And he's getting 30 games. He already had something. Oh, yes. Yeah. From Chicago. Yeah. Yeah. He had an incident in Chicago, which apparently never went to trial, which I think people

think automatically, it's like, oh, well, there wasn't anything there. No, there's tons of reasons why things don't go to trial. It's smoke, at least yeah it's not necessarily um a case of no evidence but yeah a lot a lot going on i i feel like after the trade deadline i always have to like go to the transaction page or scroll through trade rumors and figure out who's on what team now and like what has actually happened right it's really hard to keep track of everything going on i mean who can we put in the boston if it's not barrios yeah i'm looking at the the official rumors do not link uh boston it's probably because heimblum does not want to give up uh big prospect names you know he wants to hold

on to his but a rental i still think like you know gray bar that would be a fun little thing it's not gonna cost much because he costs some money money and the Royals aren't going to be good this year or next year. What about Kyle Gibson? Yeah. Gibson? That's a name I thought would get some more rumors here over the last 24 hours that I feel like we haven't really heard much about, right? Or have I been in my Nats bubble? I haven't really heard any trade rumors with him at all as we sit here.

Is he under contract for another year? heard any trade rumors with him at all as we sit here is he under contract for another year um i thought he was under team control and that's what made him like a guy that people were like all right i'll i'll definitely roll the dice there like you had him for more than that rental free agent 2023 yep he's got one more year left it's a three-year 28 million dollar deal that he signed with the rangers prior to the 2020 season for gibson so well if you just trade a gallo that is under control for next year, then you're saying that we're open for business on people that are assigned for next year too.

Yeah, but maybe a little harder to get someone to trade for him just because of the money owed next year. It seems like that's a pretty big deterrent, maybe less so for contenders who are expecting to have full stadiums in October. One thing about Boston that's really interesting to me is that I think that stadium is very weird. And in terms of how it plays, right? And I think that certain pitchers just wouldn't have success there.

And certain pitchers that you wouldn't expect might have success there. Think of Nick Pavetta. He's coming from an NL park that is hitter friendly, but they, you know, move some things around and change some aspects of his approach and his pitching mix. And he's been an incredible starting pitcher. I wouldn't have, I wouldn't have guessed that. I would have said, if you fail in Philadelphia, you're going to fail in Boston. But they've had other pitchers that have gone there that have just not found success. So they could look at Kyle Gibson and be like, this approach, this isn't going to work in Fenway.

For whatever reason. People are just going to pepper the wall off him or this or that. So I don't know. But if John Gray can find success in Coors, you think that he could go to Fenway. So I'm going to bang that drum for a while, even though there's absolutely no reason, no rumors behind it, no sourcing. It's just one of those

Eno specials. Bard and Gray to the Red Sox, because I said so. Those are the best. I do feel like no matter what happens, usually that last hour is chaos. So we're taping this. We are not at that last hour point yet. We're going to see we are not at that last hour point yet we're gonna see a lot of guys move and like you can agree on a deal a few minutes before the deadline

and as long as the agreement is in place it could still happen right like as a beat writer i just remember years of the clubhouse back when we used to be in the clubhouse would close about four um but teams would try to kick you out as early as they could because many times meeting you would all of a sudden meeting yeah yeah yeah you'd all of a sudden be looking at your phone and you'd be like i remember one time you look up more like oh tommy hunter you've been traded like as he's walking by and he's like what like you know it's a few minutes before four o'clock um and it's so stressful um i have definitely broken trade news to guys a few times just by reading twitter

um and so what's weird this year is you don't have that as much right you don't have like guys crying at their lockers guys hugging them goodbye you don't remember flora color i almost wanted to ask him about that because he's here but i just feel like so rude like how what how am i gonna ask him about crying in the dugout? I mean, Kevin Gossman cried when he got traded away from the Orioles. Koji Uhara cried like there. I mean, I've seen so many guys.

I feel like tear up my lasting thing of Max Scherzer is him crying, bawling when they won the world series. So like these guys cry real men. It's not necessarily that it's just like, what am I going to ask about it? Remember that time you cried? Hey, remember when you got traded? Remember that really sad day?

Yeah, right. And I'll never forget Jonathan Scope. We're in New York the year that the Orioles traded a bunch of guys. And Jonathan Scope comes in. It's like late. He came in kind of late. It's a few minutes before we get kicked out. He's changing in his locker.

He turns around. MLB Network's on that day, which i always think is particularly cruel it's on that day and on the scroll it's like jonathan scope's been traded to detroit and he turns and he looks and he's like like he's like what and he runs out and gets on his phone so like it's just um it's just chaos and i think you know as we tape this I think we have to kind of couch this whole podcast with there is chaos coming that we are not aware of yet. That's probably going to happen. Could something be done better?

I think of like I referenced on the last podcast, this idea that like, you know, Billy Bean doesn't want to be the guy to talk to the player and tell him that he wants, right? Like that's a sort of famous moment that Billy Bean does not want to be the one who breaks the trade news to a player. And so he either has lackeys do it or, you know,

he's not going to go into the clubhouse and take abuse from all the players, you know? And that came up in the context of the Jared Poto thing. But the one thing is that like leaks do matter and deals aren't always done until they're done all the way. Right? So, you know, Leaks do matter, and deals aren't always done until they're done all the way. So you've got Britt texting you, and you haven't yet told the player, but maybe you're on the way to telling the player, or you're about to call the agent, or maybe you just got off the phone with the agent,

and so you tell Britt, and maybe Britt is faster than the agent at getting the player, or you have one of these clubhouse situations. I think it's almost unavoidable that sometimes a player will find out not from the team. I think most of the time they find out not from the team. You think it's that way? I think most of the time, yeah. In the old days where there was like clubhouses

and reporters were in there, maybe this year it's a little bit more contained. But I feel like you found out all the time. It was just, and you're right, it's hard to avoid. You can't really avoid it by any means, but yeah, it's just always very chaotic, and you've got guys making, GMs making deals, like Rizzo last night's a great example.

He's making one deal, he's already on to the next. He agreed in principle, let somebody else handle all the specifics, right? And now he's already trying to figure out, okay, can I deal Hudson? Like, okay, who else can I deal here today? And so, or, oh, here goes Schwarber, right? Right, right. And now he's already trying to figure out, okay, can I deal Hudson? Okay, who else can I deal here today? Right, right. Or, oh, here goes Schwarber, right?

So I think in that scenario, lots of times it's on the agents. So there's no way in hell that Mike Rizzo is going to be down at the clubhouse. No, he's not calling Max Scherzer and having a tearful goodbye to Trey Turner. He's worried about his next thing. And so that's what's kind of going on too here.

But maybe you could send one of your lackeys to the clubhouse and be like, an AGMm send an agm down to the clubhouse and it doesn't happen it doesn't happen usually it's the manager who calls them in like really quickly but like there's just not enough time are you just going to station agm in the clubhouse just so that when he gets the text it just doesn't happen those guys are in the war room like hr people are supposed to like pr well I'm saying in real life it's HR people that reach out to you and tell you what's going on. Maybe it's your supervisor.

What's the HR of baseball? Is it PR? The PR people shouldn't have to do that. They're busy drafting the release. The manager can pass along that information because a lot of times managers have been through it. They've had to deal with it. The manager's also preparing for the game that night you got other coaches though you

got other coaching staff on on board like these we know we know in the trade deadline is months i just feel bad for these guys as human beings right like it's terrible it's terrible your your life is being bandied around on twitter and and and you find out from the scroll or from the writer that you've been traded. It feels very like you're a little random number generator that's being tossed around. You're not like a human being. But the reality of the situation is it's very hard to do something about.

Yeah, I mean, if I showed up to do an episode of Rates and Barrels and the little scroll in the bottom of StreamYard said, DVR has been traded by The Athletic to Pets.com. That was the first time I'd heard about it. I'd be like, hey, this hurts. What's going on? Give me a phone call or something.

Let me know from the source that this is actually happening. Don't let me find out that way. It's also super relevant to what the Mariners did because the Mariners traded away Graveman, and so everyone on the team gave all these quotes of how pissed off they were, and how it's just like the Mariners always do this, they always sell, blah, blah, blah, blah.

But in the end, they got Tyler Anderson, Abraham Toro, Andy Castillo. They were actually kind of buyers in some, I would say. I think they played it really well, except for that day that everyone on their team trashed their organization.

I know that Diego Castillo's velocity is going down and that relievers have short shelf lives and the Rays will trade a reliever at any time. But I think the Mariners did well to get him. Yeah, I think you're right like the the the personal part of the the trade deadline is kind of lost these but these gems also don't have time to go down there and like hold guys hands and explain moves they're busy making the next move yeah so it's pretty busy maybe maybe when the dust settles they're able to do it but i mean this happens to every guy whether you're also the rumors leading up to it mess with guys too you know I think I saw Chris Bryant talking about how he likes to eat ice cream and

get nine hours of sleep to check out which if that's the case I've been doing it all wrong but I think I've I think I told this story on this podcast already but the all-star game a few years ago when Manny Machado was on the trading block he called a bunch like me and three of the other like regular oils, beat writers into a storage closet underneath Nats park before the all-star game closed or started and was like in tears saying, you guys would tell me if you knew where I was going, right? Like this weighs on guys.

This is something where you're like, you know, it's not just as simple as, okay, you go to this team. See you later. If you don't have 10, five rights,

like Scherzer and Danny Duffy, which is rare, it's really hard to have 10 years of service time, five with the same team so that you can have a little control over your future. You know, Trey Turner yesterday, I'm sure they were just absolutely felt like they got gut punched, right? All of a sudden, pack it up, go to LA with your newborn and your wife and like, hurry it up. We got to be there. You know, know, it's, I think it's, um, it's a really tough thing for guys to deal with the human side of things. And every year I'm like, I'm going to write about all these crazy trade stories I've seen. And every year I get too busy and I'm like, Oh, I'll write about it next year. So instead I'm just talking about it on the podcast.

Yeah. I mean, the Castillo thing is another notch in the, Hey, the Mariners are trying to hang around a little bit and see what they can do this year, which I think they took the, the clubhouse took the first trade that was made as a shot at them. Like, hey, we're not going for it this year. And I don't think that's necessarily what they're doing. I think they're just trying to have good balance, take a reasonable shot at this year while continuing to get better. Castillo is better than Graveman because, at the very least, because Castillo is around next year. But is JT Chargois, who went back to Tampa Bay in this DLC, just as good as Diego Castillo? Doesn't the Rays are any worse off in the bullpen after this trade? The one thing I would say, and maybe Castillo doesn't actually solve that, but the one thing

I would say is, does the Rays' bullpen have standout velocity? that but the one thing i would say is does the rays bullpen have standout velocity right now the velocity leaders in the bullpen are rasmussen at 97 which is pretty good and uh charjois at 96 i guess that's okay didn't we talk on this podcast that velocity is becoming less of a thing and it's more about the deception and building a bullpen of different arm angles yeah and different movements it could be could be fine right it's just it's just a stable of guys who throw 98 as cool as that quote was uh yeah i get i don't know i just look at that bullpen i'm like okay that's that's the championship bullpen maybe it is are they done though are the race done because i think a lot of relievers are gonna the relievers are always the last-minute deadline guys, right?

I think. I feel like. It's like, oh, there's a flurry of reliever movement because you realize, hey, we're not going to get much more for this guy. So we might as well either sell or we're stuck with a reliever we don't need for two months. I think we'll see a bunch more get moved in the next few hours. That's always the case. You see 15 or 20 relievers, it seems like, on the move every single deadline. Even guys that aren't in Major League bullpens, those types

of guys get shuttled around in small deals, too. The Rays just bought Sean Armstrong, who was in the minors for the Orioles. Yeah, yeah. Which I thought was odd and I don't know, for cash considerations. By the way...

There's also like a 40-man crunch thing, right? Yeah, I don't know. By the way, this has kind of to kind of make some moves here? Where's your rebuild? Well, I think the problem with the Orioles is they have no interesting rentals other than maybe Freddie Galvis. And then they don't necessarily want to trade means. Why? Got time left. You could trade him in the winter, too.

Maybe they should trade Means. I don't know. No urgency to do it right now if you don't get an offer that you like, though. If it's a buyer's market, don't trade John Means right now. Don't trade him in the winter when everybody is looking for help. Trading Mancini seems mean. Yep. So really all you got is Galvis and Franco.

Nobody wants Franco. What about your boy Tanner Scott? You mentioned that last night on Twitter Spaces. Yeah, that's one. I would shop that because it's a reliever. Maybe Tanner Scott. Tanner Scott to the Rays. Here we go.

Well, we'll say goodbye to Britt. Britt has to go, so we've got a little more show to get to. So, Britt, we hope you enjoy the rest of the deadline, and we'll look forward to talking to you again. Well, I will look forward to talking to you again in a couple of weeks. You'll be here while I'm gone next week. Good luck texting. Yes.

I know. Well, you know what, guys? It's just people not answering me. May your texts land at the top of everyone's queue. Yeah, exactly. Keep going. Keep going. An old Irish beat writer blessing.

Oh, exactly. Keep going, keep going. An old Irish beat writer blessing. Oh, boy. All right, guys. I will see you soon, and I'll see you on the other side of this trade deadline. All right. We will catch you later, Brit. All right, you know, I think there's another small trade that's pretty interesting.

The White Sox picked up Cesar Hernandez, which we all thought Adam Frazier was going to be a member of the White Sox after the Cesar Hernandez, which we all thought Adam Frazier was going to be a member of the White Sox after the deadline. Obviously, he went to San Diego earlier this week, but Hernandez fits perfectly. They needed second base coverage with Nick Madrigal down for the season.

He gets on base. I'm not really buying the uptick in power for this year, but this is the kind of move that doesn't cost you much to make, and it actually leaves some pretty interesting playing time available for Cleveland, where they had a logjam in the middle infield. Now they can probably play Ahmed Rosario and Andres Jimenez together at short and second if they want to,

or they could throw Owen Miller out there at second base. But Hernandez to the White Sox, I think, is one of a few moves we're going to see from them between now and the deadline later today. You know, I think it actually has the chance to be the most impactful move at the deadline, which is like a crazy thing to say. But if you think about it in these terms, the White Sox before the trade were a bottom five second base situation in terms of depth charts.

And now after the trade, they're a top 10 situation. So in terms of turning like a real weakness into a strength, I would say that that's happened more there than almost anywhere else. Because if you're talking about Max Scherzer, you're really upgrading from, I mean, I guess you could say you're upgrading from Tony Gonsolin to Max Scherzer, but I don't think it's really

going to work out that way. Like, I don't think that you're basically taking the Dodgers rotation, which was top three, and you're making it top two, top one. Like it's not the same sort of impact. If you think about Anthony Rizzo, they were seventh in the big leagues with Luke Voigt. And I know that's projections versus what's happened to date.

And that, that can throw people off. Cause he'd be like, what the, you know, the Yankees are the seventh best first base situation with Luke Voigt? Maybe it's a lost year. Maybe the projections are wrong.

But that's the kind of true talent Luke Voigt has. And they went up to fourth with Anthony Rizzo. Not that big of a move. The Joey Gallo one, there's a lot of shifting stuff you'd have to look at. So maybe that was really impactful. What are you replacing? Starling Marte is the other one. You're replacing Piscotty and Brown,

which had to be a bottom five situation. I think every time we've looked at the A's, we just keep saying the middle infield has to change. The middle infield has to change. Hernandez would have been a good fit in Oakland. That could have been a good move for the A's to make. It did.

I think you were right to point that out because Piscotty is just not the guy we wanted him to be a few years ago. Brown looks more like a quad ace or a player. So three clear needs in that lineup. One upgraded in Oakland already, but another guy that would have fit really well off the board to someone else. So I still wonder if they're actual players for Trevor Story. I feel like the Rockies are going to botch that trade so badly

that Oakland could put together a pretty light package and still come away with one of the better available players at the deadline. That's why I keep saying athletics. They always have a surprise, right? And if nobody comes to the table with the right person for Story, then maybe it'll happen. But I also share everyone's cynicism that the A's will get Story. I understand. Money, blah, blah, blah maybe it'll happen. But I also share everyone's cynicism that the A's will get story.

I understand. Money, blah, blah, blah. Money, yep. But Cesar Hernandez is also interesting for another reason. This is kind of off topic. So from 2019 to 2020, Cesar Hernandez was a contact guy, spray hitter, had like 2.8% barrels, right? And he was exactly league average by wrc plus

this year uh he has nine percent barrels you know his hard hit is up by like 50 percent uh he's obviously like changed his approach he's league average by wrc plus so it's like i don't know if maybe sometimes these changes that people make are like think about yonder lonzo's career too right you know i had this big argument with someone because i was like he's better now he's hitting homers he's better but if you kind of look at the shape of his career you know he was a pretty good player with the launch angle or without you know he was kind of like different each case but in each case, but in each case, in the end, he was just a pretty good player, you know? So it's like, I wonder

sometimes if it's either cosmetic or if you just have a true talent. And then if you're going to maybe try to go for the barrels and the homers or go for the spray hitting, you're still going to end up in the same place, maybe for some of these guys. That's one thought. The other thought is there was a little bit of positive batted luck, as much as we understand about batted luck, in the first sample for Hernandez, and a little bit of negative batted ball luck in the second. However, if you're going to hit fly balls, you may have poor batted ball numbers in other cases. You know what I mean?

You may have a poor batted if you hit a lot of fly balls so I would say that generally I prefer the second Cesar Hernandez the one who can hit for power and hopefully has better luck in the future and is better than league average but it is interesting me that like both of these very different versions of Cesar Hernandez ended up in the same place. Yeah, in some ways, the power surge from Hernandez reminds me of what we saw from Eduardo Escobar a few years ago. Escobar was on the move after we recorded on Wednesday. He ends up with the Brewers. And I think that was the kind of trade that as soon as it broke, it was like, yep, that makes sense because he can play multiple infield spots.

And I think the Brewers seem to be prioritizing harmony in the clubhouse. There was a great piece that Zach Buchanan wrote recently about Eduardo Escobar and the impact he's had on the clubhouse in Arizona. He had this reputation. I mean, even before he was in Arizona, Eduardo Escobar in Minnesota was always a popular guy in the clubhouse there too.

So when you think about how you're going to make pieces fit, it's not just the depth chart. It actually is personalities within that core of 26 guys in the locker room and making sure that you're good to go there. And I think, you know, with Escobar, it's one more guy on the infield. It makes things more crowded. It takes a guy like Keston Hira and makes him more of a role guy than someone they have to lean on. It gives them insurance in case something happens to Colton Wong, who's had a lot of trouble with his oblique injury this year. So I just thought this was a really good fit.

And obviously another guy that didn't really take much in terms of prospects that were traded away to give the Brewers a nice rental on the left side of the infield primarily. Yeah, it's very interesting because using the rubric that I was using for like Cesar Hernandez and Anthony Rizzo, it didn't actually move the needle that much. The Brewers are still below average by depth charts at third base and first base. However, they're not the very bottom. And I just like this kind of roster construction where you have, they have like three guys who can play every position it feels like.

You know? And what that does, it's twofold. First of all, it ensures you against injury. There's no one player on that infield that gets hurt and you're like, ah, there goes the season. You know what I mean? And then second,

it actually sets you up for a sort of lotto ticket sort of season, right? What happens if Escobar comes over and goes into a funk? It's okay. You kind of, maybe Urias starts over him more often. It's fine.

You got another guy. You know what I mean? And, or, you know, maybe Rowdy Tellez goes into a funk or whatever. So you've got guys to kind of ensure against massive injury or massive sort of failure to perform to expectations. And a lot of them have options. So, like, you know, you can move things around. And personally, I just love Roddy Tellez. I love Willie Adamas.

I think Colton Wong is a good fit for that park. They're excellent defensively, right? Aren't they excellent defensively at every position now? Tellez, I guess, is a question. Everywhere it matters, anyway, they're above average or excellent, which is huge. Tellez is a question mark, but now let's say you get a lead. You take Tellez out of the game.

If it's a big enough lead or you just want to nurse that lead, you put Escobar at first. He's probably a better defender there than Rowdy. Anyway, it's a nice way to construct a team. People were saying there's more to go. I don't know. Maybe another reliever. You never know with relievers, but the way that team

is constructed, it's not obvious to me that they need to get something in a certain place. That's a team that's built to win the games they can win and lose the games they're going to lose. We'll see about the other third. I guess I wouldn't be stunned if Carlos Santana ended up there, right? If the Royals are going to move him, if Boston doesn't get him,

I think a guy that could just be the regular first baseman, that'd push Rowdy into a bench lefty role. Or if I were the Royals, I might take Rowdy for Carlos. Yeah, right. Take the chance on Rowdy, like Rowdy in a prospect or something for Carlos, like a lower level guy. I mean, there's a number of ways to make something like that work. And the other thing I wonder about with the Brewers

is if the right player becomes available, do they actually move Kestan Hira? Do they sell low? I mean, sometimes you just have a player and you don't want to wait it out any longer because the value seems like it's bottomed out, but it hasn't bottomed out yet. I've got a name for you like that.

Luis Urias. I'm saying the Padres sold low on Luis Urias. Oh, for sure. Yeah, and they absolutely did. They just got to a point where... But it worked out for them. They got Trent Grisham. So what do you think the gap is

between Grisham and Urias this season? Obviously, last season, Grisham was fantastic. But just from a pure production standpoint. You're asking me to not look? Don't look it up. How close do you think they are? I'd say that Grisham is blowing him out of the water if I'm not looking. I would say Grisham has three.

Oh, but he's been hurt. Well, I mean, just in terms of WRC plus. Okay, WRC plus. I'd say Grisham is at like level, and Urias is at 105. Yeah, it's 118 for Grisham and 103 for Urias. I mean, it's still a trade that looks much better for the Padres. But defensive value... Defensive value matters, and the Brewers are getting something.

Who has more defensive value? Defensive value right now, it's got... Fangraffs has Urias as a negative as a defender playing third. I think he'd be above average up the middle, especially at second base, but you're not going to play him there with Wong. Grisham, they've got above average. So I think that still favors San Diego too.

It's interesting to see Lauer as kind of a piece for them too. It's possible that War does not have infield, outfield positional value completely 100% sussed. Jeff Zimmerman has a really good piece about revisiting positional value on the Hardball Times, if you want to look it up, where he had actually different positional adjustments than war has and then if you think about it in terms of how teams actually act in on in terms of trading um there are teams that won't even trade for an outfielder they just think they can make them

you know but at the same time you look at the indians who are having a horrible time and they keep trying to trade for outfielders, and it's not working out. But I think if you asked an exec, would you rather have a good infielder or a good outfielder, they would say they'd rather have a good infielder. Like all things being equal? Yeah, I think so. We've got one more trade rumor to get to.

This is from MLB Trade Rumors. Apparently, the Blue Jays are now a leading suitor for Jose Barrios. They could use him, man. And I like how it's also building for next year. That's a good move. And this is from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

So I just keep refreshing trade rumors because I've only got so many tabs open. What is Prez going to do if he doesn't get Barrios, dude? What's left? He's going to call the Rockies and actually give him something for Gray. Pryaway, John Gray. Who else could he get? Who could he get that we don't think is available? Sandy Alcantara.

Yeah, him or someone like him. We didn't think Jesus Lizardo was going anywhere. What would it take to get Sandy Alcantara? Would you have to give up Cronenworth? Let me ask you another question. Would you give up Cronenworth as part of a deal to get Sandy Alcantara? Would you have to give up Cronenworth? Let me ask you another question. Would you give up Cronenworth as part

of a deal to get him? Because I don't think it's just Cronenworth. I think it'd be Cronenworth and something else. No, but maybe,

I guess, like, Hassel's a name that they don't want to give up, but keeps getting floated and there's enough smoke around that.

I think if I was the, I think that the Marlins have shown that they might trade a pitcher for somebody like Hassel, right? Think about it. They traded Zach Gallin for Jazz Chisholm. So I think Alcantara for Hassel. That's interesting. What about Luis Camposano as a possible fit there?

Yeah, I think they want to hold on to him, but maybe Camposano. I think they're definitely going to hold on to CJ Abrams. Yeah, I don't think Abrams is going anywhere, but the reason I think the Marlins might consider something with Camposano is because if you look at their top 20 prospects, they don't think Abrams is going anywhere, but the reason I think the Marlins might consider something with Camposano is because if you look at their top 20 prospects, they don't have a catcher in that group. They don't have that position

to get out for the long haul. How long do they have Alfaro for? Alfaro, a little more time. He's 28 already. Is Alfaro ever going to be more than he is right now? I think we kind of know who he is, what he is. He's not your catcher of the future anymore. So I think that might be a thing that develops

where it is a controllable pitcher, and yeah, they've got to give up something that's more important to them long-term, but it might be the move they have to make if the more established starters, the expiring guys, the more senior guys available all go somewhere else. Even if you think Jesus Lozardo might end up in the bullpen, they still have like eight quality starters as options for next year.

Yeah, I like it. I think we both agree Chris Bryant's going somewhere. And then there's Means. We keep talking about Means. Like maybe Means is a surprise. But I just don't – like if I'm the Padres, it's like, they got Max Scherzer. We got John Means.

It's a nice get, but not as impactful. And even Sandy at least throws so hard that you could be like, oh, yeah, well, we got a 98-mile-an-hour flame-throwing 20-year-old. So take your octogenarian and shove him. I mean, there's not really a lot of ways to counter a Max Scherzer trade. I'm older than Max Scherzer. Yeah. Just to be clear. Good to disclose that.

I am also a tick younger than Max Scherzer, for what it's worth, but we're not far apart. We're only a couple months apart. Happy birthday to Max. Congratulations. It's Max's birthday, actually, a few days ago. We should have pointed that out at the time. That's right.

But we'll see if that deal actually goes through. Remember, it's still not official, at least as of the time of this recording. So we're anxiously awaiting the conclusion of that deal. Chris Bryant's going to go somewhere, right? I mean, that's got to happen. You already traded Rizzo. Bryant has to go somewhere.

That's inevitable. Story is inevitable. There's a few more moves that have to happen. This is going to be a big deadline. Like one of the more impactful trade deadlines we've seen in a long time, actually.

I think it's because the buying price has come down. And it's been part of a multi-year trend. But I think it's also encouraged teams to go out and make the big splash because the big splash doesn't cost you

a huge part of your future the way it would have five plus years ago. Britt seems to think that the Berrios to the Jays has happened. Did she tweet it? Is it reported? I don't know. Oh, there it is. Yeah, Ken Rosenthal, Berrios to the Blue Jays, source tells The Athletic.

So we do not know the return yet. Should we speculate on the return? Because that'll be fun. And it looks like John Marossi has Simeon Woods Richardson as part of that deal. Oh, you know, I had a source tell me a while back that they thought that the Jays had acquired Simeon Woods Richardson to flip him. So that's interesting.

You go from Marcus Stroman to Jose Berrios with your nickel and string idea. Woods Richardson to flip him. That's interesting. You go from Marcus Stroman to Jose Barrios with your nickel and string idea. I think Simeon Woods Richardson is similar to Mike Soroka as a prospect. A guy that's very young, very polished and could be very good

in not a lot of time. So I do like that for the Twins if he's part of the return. I wonder if we'll see Buxton get moved then. If you're moving Barrios, you might as well start tearing down more pieces. Maybe they'll be the team that on Friday acts a lot like the Nats did on Thursday. Rodgers. The other two pieces that have value that are locked down for next year are Rodgers and Buxton, yeah.

And Duffy, I guess. Taylor Rodgers to San Francisco makes sense, right? He could pitch with his brother. I love it, actually. I love it. Because I do think the thing that San Francisco needs is a power righty with a second pitch. Well, or just a power righty. Because they've got a power lefty with one pitch in Jake McGee. And then they've got the submarining righty. Because they've got a power lefty with one pitch in Jake McGee,

and then they've got the submarining righty. They just don't have a traditional closer type that I think they could use it. I thought they could use Hudson. I still think Kimbrough because of the money, but yeah. That's funny. Rodgers and Rodgers. You could at least get some marketing time out of it. It'd be fun.

Fun to have those guys pitching together. It looks like multiple prospects going back to the Twins, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. We'll see if the return comes in the next couple minutes before we sign off. That kind of leaves Kyle Gibson as the next available. This puts San Diego in that dreaded position that we were just talking about.

What does AJ Prowler do now to get starting pitching? And hopefully it is something really exciting. Call the Marlins right now. The Marlins should call the Padres and be like, hey, we got some guys. Let's talk. I hear it didn't work out. We're here for you. It's like an ex-girlfriend.

I think it should be like a like an insurance commercial like where they just they're like we're here to be your friend all the time and you're like you're just here to take my money you just like me because you know i'll pay you money every month come on it's funny that you know how much we're feeling around in the dark when we prognosticate on the um and you're listening to Brit. Some of it is random about who gets that... Who's number one on a text message thread.

And then the other thing is there's definitely obfuscation where they're like, oh yeah, we're never going to... We have to be blown away for Trey Turner. Oh yeah, we'll take K.V. Reeds. I guess that could be blown away. It's a very good prospect. Maybe not as good as we once

thought. But no, so the whole idea was that A.J. Preller is the big swinger who's going to take whatever swing he's going to take, and so far he's gotten Daniel Hudson. He'll get there. He'll get something. I don't know who it is, but he's going to get someone or something to make that roster better. His reputation

is so cemented that we're just going to pull this. We's going to get someone or something to make that roster better. His reputation is so cemented that we're just going to pull this. We're going to leave this to the end. So here's the other rumor or report that's going around. Ken Rosenthal reporting that the Rays are talking with the Cubs about both Chris Bryant and Craig Kimbrell, which is, I think, in line just with the, hey, the Rays are doing something big and different. This isn't just going to be the Rays playing both ends.

Also, like, me looking at their bullpen being like, is this the bullpen? Well, I just think if you put Kimbrel in at the back and do all of your mixing and matching in the fifth through the eighth, it's a good thing. You get one more really good arm in there that you feel good about. Also, Kimbrel, other than... Oh, and Bryant being able to play all over is a total raised thing. Yeah, so I wonder, who's the best prospect they would trade?

Is Vidal Brujan the kind of guy that they would actually move in a deal to get both of those players? I don't think it's someone with as much positional value. They traded Nate Lowe, right? Like, maybe Josh Lowe? Let's see.

Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, Nate Lowe. So, Josh Lowe. Maybe they trade Josh Lowe. It seems like a person they might trade. Maybe a sell Lowe on Honeywell. Yeah, I could see a team sell low on Honeywell. Yeah, I could see a team being interested in Honeywell because even if you don't know what you're going to get volume-wise from him, they could still be quality innings even if it's 80 to 100 every year

instead of 150 plus. But how do you fit Bryant and Kimbrell? Right now, their luxury tax number is $84 million. Their estimated 2021 payroll is $67 million on roster resource. And their estimated final 2020 payroll is $74 million. Kimbrel is due about $4 million. Maybe that works. And then they just, you know what happens is they trade Kimbrell before the season.

Whoa, here you go. Here's the return for Jose Barrios. Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson going to the Twins. That's a great trade for Minnesota. I think we've talked about Barrios and long-term value and how we think he's going to age. That is a fantastic deal. It could work out really well for both sides. I love that trade for Minnesota because Martin is not far away. Woods Richardson is not far away.

Both could be impact players. That's an awesome trade. If you're a Twins fan, you got to be about as happy as you can be trading players away based on the market we're seeing for that return. That's almost a better return than what the Dodgers gave up to get Scherzer and Trey Turner. Yeah, you might have Martin on some lists ahead. There was some chatter at the Futures game that Martin wasn't impressing. And it's a one game look, but he just wasn't showing power to all fields. He was kind of looking kind of slappy. He's had an injury,

I think that might've affected his swing that people were talking about. That's just why he might've fallen in certain estimations. And it's kind of hard to use preseason lists to be like, oh, he was number whatever in the preseason, because we know that even compared to the normal year,

so much has changed since the preseason for these lists. I kind of wish that everybody felt compelled to do full 100s and full every team before the All-Star break or something so that we would have something fresher to look at. I do know that Baseball America is doing team-by-teams right now and that Baseball Perspectives had a midseason top 50. But that's, you know, we're still kind of – there's still an information gap there between the preseason list and what we're looking at now.

So I just wanted to put out there why maybe they would trade Martin in this deal. But what do the Blue Jays need more than anything? I would say starting pitching and under control for another year so that if they either only get the wild card this year or don't make the postseason this year, they have an asset for next year. And maybe someone you think about extending too

if you can get the terms right. I mean, I know it's hard for the Blue Jays sometimes to lure free agents, but you just never know. You get a guy in there, he enjoys being there, likes the young group around him. Maybe you can actually get ahead of the market in free agency. Why would you extend him and not Marcus Stroman? I guess one reason is maybe some health outcomes. Stroman has had some health issues,

which don't ever seem to be related to his arm all the time, but he has been hurt from time to time. And then also, if you just look at things like stuff and command numbers, which I know the Blue Jays use, Berrios is preferable. You might see something there that you just think will age better. Yeah, I'm blown away by this return

only because we have not seen a lot of prospects that are in that top 50 range. We're not seeing guys like this get moved very often. I think Ruiz and Martin, by name value and probably by sort of consensus rank, were the top two prospects moved so far. Yeah, Ruiz, I think you made a good point. Ruiz, both of them have taken a step back

from where maybe their peak rankings were. Yeah, but I think you made a good point earlier with Ruiz. Because of Will Smith especially, you were never going to have a scenario. I mean, even if you have universal DH, the Dodgers have so much depth at other positions that DHing Will Smith a lot and playing both of those guys was never going to be a priority. So it made all the sense in the world to actually trade him away.

And I think we did see Ruiz show a nice uptick in power at AAA this year. So I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up looking like a key player moved. Like if we look back, the two best players moved were Martin and Ruiz. It's certainly possible. There's a lot of catchers that can hit for power like that, bring a 30% K rate with it, and that's not Ruiz at all. They're also not like 17-year-olds in A ball, which, you know. Yeah, yeah.

A lot of the other pieces that are being moved are like 17-year-olds in A ball. Absolutely. Well, I think we're going to wrap it up here, A lot of the other pieces that are being moved are like 17-year-olds and A-ball. Absolutely. Well, I think we're going to wrap it up here because if we don't wrap it up, we'll be on for two and a half more hours. I think we got pretty lucky in this case. And you're going back on with Keith Law. Yep.

So if you hear this before 4 Eastern, there is going to be a live stream for the Athletic Baseball Show. I'll be on with Keith Law. We'll have a few of our beat writers on talking about all the trades that have happened in the last week or so, kind of talking about the winners, the losers, digging in a little bit deeper on some of the prospects, some of the guys that Keith

is more familiar with. You hear some of these younger names, you're like, whoa, never seen that guy. Haven't really seen him play anywhere. Keith's dialed in. He'll have some more information about some of these players

and get a better picture of what some of these returns look like. Obviously, we're digging into prospects too, but that's his wheelhouse. So looking forward to doing that a little later this afternoon. If you don't have a subscription already, this is a fantastic time to sign up. $3.99 a month gets you in the door at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. Be sure to do that. Twitter. He's at, you know, Saris. I am at Derek Van Riper. And as I mentioned previously, the schedule next week is moving week, literally the week that I'm driving across the country for my move. So we have shows lined up on Wednesday and Friday.

We'll be back to the usual Monday, Wednesday, Friday plan the week after I make it to California. So I hope everybody enjoys the shows while I am out. I will try to enjoy the scenes of Interstate I-80. On your rocket ship? On my rocket ship. Looking forward to that. Another life. Brand new life beginning

on Monday. So I hope everybody has a good weekend. Enjoy. Go west, young man. Go west. Going west. I'm looking forward to the weather upgrade, especially when the weather turns here. So that is going to wrap things up for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening.