Rates & Barrels - Trade Deadline Surprises, The Cards & Red Sox as Contenders & Getting Beat by Pull-Happy Hitters

Episode Date: July 18, 2024

Eno, DVR and Trevor discuss the Cubs and Dodgers squaring off in Tokyo to begin the 2025 regular season, mic'ing up pitchers, potential Trade Deadline Surprises, how the Cardinals and Red Sox might approach necessary upgrades in the coming weeks, and how to pitch Isaac Paredes and other pull-happy power hitters. Rundown 5:32 Mic'ing Up Pitcher on the Job 11:01 Making Cases for Unexpected Players to Be Traded 23:43 How Would You Approach the Cardinals' Trade Deadline? 33:13 How Would You Approach the Red Sox's Trade Deadline? 49:55 The Game Plan: Pitching to Isaac Paredes & Pull-Happy Power Hitters Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Trevor on Twitter: @IamTrevorMay Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us at 1p ET/10a PT on Thursday, July 18th for our next livestream! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Host: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris With: Trevor May Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Thursday, July 18th. Derek Van Riper, Inosaris, Trevor May here with you on this Thursday. Special shout out to the Live Hive watching us on YouTube, live every Thursday. One o'clock Eastern is the start time on this episode we've got Some rumors that we're going to speak into existence over time So we're gonna float some names that we think could be moved at the trade deadline somewhat unexpectedly Hopefully have some surprises in there for some people

We're gonna take a look at the Cardinals and the Red Sox two teams that are playing well right now And you know really are in position to make the playoffs but are not necessarily in position to do damage if they get there. So we'll talk about how those teams need to approach the trade deadline to become more serious World Series contenders this year. We're also going to dig into Esauk Paredes and pull happy power hitters. How does Esauk Paredes keep getting away with it? We'll try to explain that and why it's so hard to actually get this guy out,

which has been a problem for a lot of teams in the AL East and really for the entire league for the better part of these last two seasons. Now, gentlemen, we begin today with some breaking news. The 2025 season will open up in Tokyo. Cubs, Dodgers, they get to make the long trip, but that's a great matchup to be played in Japan, of course, a lot of Japanese-born stars on those teams. So are we down for a live Rates and Barrels

in Tokyo in March? Yes. You guys have a great time with that. I'll see you in the middle of the night here. Trevor's like, I will jump on remotely from the comforts of my home. Hmm, yeah, I wonder well I will having a six-month-old be will my wife let me go to

Good call good call, but it'll be a good time. I think it's uh, it's not surprising, right? We just had the Dodgers and Padres open this season in Korea. It seems like a great way to continue showcasing some of the international superstars just the other thing that's cool about this I think is I love baseball in Japan like from my experience like the food that you can get is really top-notch the beer can that comes to you out in the stands is like in a keg so they kind of give you draft beer like in the stands which is cool these young ladies wear these backpacks with coffee or with beer on their backs and kind of sell it that way.

They have both, coffee and beer? No, like one or the other. No, I mean, not mixed together. I just mean like, there are coffee servers with a backpack full of coffee. I just want that for home use. I just want to strap on the kettle back and have the cold brew going all day.

With one of those hats with the two two straws but it's coffee. Yeah I could do that too I mean look we've discussed my fashion sense it's basically zero anyway I have no shame I'll wear a coffee dispensing helmet I'm happy with that I feel like that'd be an improvement but yeah I think the environment will be fantastic it's one of those places that would love to go so if the stars align and at least two of us can make it out there, we can do a live show. We can be on the scene for it. And good news, Trevor, I'm sure they're going to do this like every year until the end of time. So, you know, missing one, not the other one.

Yeah, you're going to have some other opportunities. One thing that's been interesting on the schedule is if they do Mexico City again, which is I think makes geographic and demographic sense. It's, it's a really, uh, you know, important place for them, but it also sucks as a place to play for the hitters. I mean, like a bunch of them got, uh, sick, you know, with the poops and it's super high altitude. So all the pitchers are complaining.

Like Joe Musgrove got some weird, like his arm got worse when it was up there because it's high altitude and things happen, you know, to your veins and to like, you know, stuff like that. So he never really liked it. He didn't like it either. So it's higher even than Coors.

So it's kind of a big deal. I was thinking about that driving back from California to Wisconsin these parts of Wyoming I think that are up over six thousand feet and there's not a ballpark out there But I thought maybe we could put a game out here. Let's just play up here. Let's see what happens It might be might be fun, but it'd be a lot like playing in Colorado in most ways Let's talk about something that was happening during the all-star game I want to get Trevor's thoughts on this because we love great content here. We love anything that's relatively new and just shows us a part of the game that we don't ordinarily get to see.

And when Alec Minoa was mic'd up while pitching a couple of years ago during the All-Star game, everything kind of fell into place. Minoa had a good inning, the personality clicked, the technology worked. We didn't really get that experience with Tarek Scoobel in this year's All-Star Game. It sounded like the mic, the earpiece wasn't working at all. There was this wild feedback sound as you were watching the broadcast. He said it was really loud. He didn't really say anything. And it was just a total nothing burger. Trevor, is this a good idea? I thought of it from a safety perspective.

Just having voices in your ear beyond the pitch comm, which is pre-pitch, seems a little bit dangerous potentially, even though the announcers aren't just chattering nonstop through every single pitch. I don't know about dangerous per se. You know, I don't think guys are like, if you get a little distracted by someone talking to you, it's not like you're suddenly gonna just lose your command.

Like if guys are feeling not comfortable about where the ball's going, they usually just throw it away from the guy, right? The old Adam Ottavino abort the mission when you don't wanna throw that pitch anymore situation. So guys, no, so I wouldn't be worried about it being dangerous per se, as I would be like, it wouldn't be as fun to pitch

if you're trying to think through even the most simple questions. Like you're talking about a teammate, which is a normal question. We saw it with Jeremy Pena trying to talk about Altuve and he was like, how deep do you want to go here? Cause I still got to feel the ball and make the plays. And could tell like, oh, I didn't think that I'd be this

distracted that I am. And I think some guys handle that better than others. One thing I am interested in is, because in football they just mic the guys up and you get all this great stuff later and that you can like vet it before it goes live too, which is, I mean, I think TV likes that a little bit more. Yeah, the back and forth or whatever isn't great,

but I think you can like tell a guy, hey, you're mic'd up, so like talk through your process or whatever. Cause I talked to myself all the time when I was pitching, so I thought it would have been great just to listen to what I was saying. If you're not worried about it, you're not worried about it. But yeah, interviewing a guy who's doing something actively

is already like kind of hard to do in anything else even. Like they usually pick someone who isn't super engaged in something that is their livelihood. So I'm a big fan of just like trying miking guys up. Like outfielders, you can interview outfielders if you like because they're bored. But like if you just want to mic a guy up and get their conversations between like first, tie France on first, right? Talking to guys. We get to him sometimes doing that. It's awesome because he's talking the whole time. If he's watching, he's talking the whole time if he's watching he's talking to everybody

Those types of things are interesting. I think that's probably the best way to do it at least get that stuff But I also liked I mean if a guy's open to Like in all-star game you can be like hey guys, what should I throw now? That was like the Alec Manoa thing like it kind of was kind of cool when Alec Manoa did it Maybe two options. Maybe you do, you want passive mic'd up or do you want to do the interview and then the guy can choose it. Because I feel like the commentators

struggle with it a little bit too. How do we ask these? When do we ask them? And even with the clock, the guy's like. Yeah, right. There's no time to ask him anything longer than five words anyways. And you could tell, they're like, how do we? Yeah, so it's a little bit disjointed and it's so it varies so wildly from guy to guy

I like what's mic'd up to is that you could edit it afterwards, right? like you could edit it during the game like you could collect some mic'd up and be like because sometimes you mic up and they're just nothing really happens and The guy's really trying to push it and he was like I like, and he's like, you know, you can tell he's kind of faking it, you know? But if you were like, hey, we're just gonna mic you up for three innings, and then we're gonna put together a montage.

So don't feel stressed out that you have to do something for us, like just go about your, and we'll catch the two or three best. You'll have that minimum, right? Like that is probably the minimum viable product there. And then you can, you might be able to know when there's a big pitch coming up, three, two, maybe we cue in and see if he starts talking to himself.

Just check in, see if he's saying anything. If he's not, then you kind of go off of it. Things like that. And then just make sure that they know that any given time you could just go to them live so that they're not there saying like, you know. F bombs. F bombs. F bombs every three bombs every four words.

Cause some guys do that. It's incoherent, makes no sense, but it makes sense to them, right? So you want to make sure they know. And never ever mic up Rich Hill. And never mic up Rich Hill. He doesn't, he care. It actually doesn't matter if you mic him up.

You can hear him from most parts of the park. You can hear him from, yeah. Just put a mic out of the booth. It is that balance though, You can hear them from most parts of the park. You can hear them from, yeah, just put a mic out of the booth. You can really hear them. It is that balance though of getting everybody involved comfortable that I think that they still are trying to find. I'm glad they're trying new things, but that seemed like a slight miss,

and maybe that's the way to work around it. Collect the audio, play it back for us after the inning as a way to kind of fill in some of the spaces around other parts of the broadcast. that might be the best overall experience So it seems like we're at this point right now We're less than two weeks from the deadline deadline is on a Tuesday 6 o'clock Eastern Tuesday July 30th trade deadline so a little earlier than usual and now we're getting that flood of these teams need to go get these players and the

player that I keep hearing being linked to everyone is Tarek Scoobal. And I just want to start like, what do you think the odds are the Tigers are going to get some kind of offer from anyone that's good enough for them to move Tarek Scoobal when you also consider that they fancy themselves as a franchise trending in the right long-term direction. They probably went into this year thinking there was a shot that could be a wild card team, but if it wasn't this year, it's probably 2025. And if they trade Tarek Skubal,

they have to get a combination of players back that replaces him and gives them more. I don't see any team willing to do that. So I keep thinking that Tarek Scoobal rumors are just flat goofy based on where the Tigers are at as a franchise right now and the difficulty of finding frontline pitching like him. Yeah, I think they're goofy, I mean.

Don't do it, what are you doing? Don't do it, Tigers. Like, he's your guy. Tarek Scoobals don't come along very often. Like, and if you're close, he's your ace. Yeah. If you just look at what's happened, those trades haven't happened much recently. I think the trend is towards really rentals.

If you look at it, I just looked at last year's trades. So if you're talking about the veteran in the trade versus the kids coming back, the veteran in the trade is always one, either the rest of this year, a pure rental or this year plus one, you know, either the rest of this year of pure rental or this year plus one, you know, like the Max Scherzer deal, you know. Other than that, these are the four names that they were the veterans in the deal

and they had more than one year left of command. Aaron Savali, Jake Berger, Ryan Yarbrough, Sam Moll. I would submit to you, there is no Tarek Scoobal in that list. No, no. Without, without, without

Net-a-grain these guys. Maybe Sam Moll. Maybe Sam Moll. He is filthy. Next year, let's stretch him out and we'll find out how filthy he is. Yeah, so I don't think that's gonna happen. You could see any number of teams blank are interested in Tarik Scoobal. Who wouldn't be?

He's a true frontline starter. But the question I have for each of you is, can you make a case for an unexpected player to be moved? Right. Like maybe it's not an elite player, but someone very good that we're not really talking about, that the rumor mill is not bouncing around right now. I mean, you know, paired up with Aaron Gleeman a few weeks ago to make some tiered rankings for players that could move at the deadline.

There were some surprises on that list, so you could certainly pick from players that were written about there or go completely off the board to someone else. Because the most likely guys are, you know, maybe Jez Chisholm. That makes a lot of sense based on where the Marlins are at. Lane Thomas could be one of the best position players move. We talked a bit about him on the Tuesday show. The Nats did it last summer with Jamer Candelario because the difference here is the Nats have more outfield help coming.

They got Dylan Cruz in the upper levels now at triple A. Thomas is a little older, not necessarily a guy that's part of their next great team. So he could be as good or better than some of the other position players available, and that could make them appealing to teams trying to get an upgrade. That's not a rental. That sort of fits into the the Eno Jake Berger grade sort of player, just a guy that plays in the corner outfield instead. I just think that there's such obvious sellers and there are so many people

that are going to convince themselves that they're buyers or stand patterns That I think this is gonna be really difficult we were just running through the different teams where a surprise trade could happen and You say if you're in the San Francisco Giants, you know front office or the day the Diamondbacks front office or even the Reds Front office. I think you say we're in it. You know, we're three games under 500. Everybody's in it. Would the Cubs sell? The Cubs are 47-51. They're at the bottom of their division. You know, you might list them as a seller in some places. Maybe some people are clamoring for them to sell, but they could, you know, win their next series and be right in the middle of the wild card race. So,

you know, I think identifying sellers is hard. And then, you know, so then you look at like, okay, the Nationals, they can be sellers and that could be good for them. But do what they sell Mackenzie Gore, you know, in the same sort of situation that we're talking about with Tarek Scoobal. Maybe it's not quite Tarek Scoobal level quality, but I think Mackenzie Gore is a very good pitcher, you know, kind of a really good number two, kind of borderline number one somebody that would start in in a playoff series for me and They've got him for three more years. If you're the Washington Nationals, I think you tell yourself Hey, man, I think we're gonna be good in the next three years

that's why these teams don't trade people that have three or four years of control because you're like We're just admitting that we're not gonna be good for four years And I think the Nationals are like hey, no, we're just admitting that we're not going to be good for four years. And I think the nationals are like, hey, no, we got some building. So they're just going to let everybody go that's not nailed down. And so, you know, that's a winker trade and a lane Thomas trade maybe to open up the outfield for Dylan Cruz and James Wood. You know, they traded Hunter Harvey who had some use of control, but he's a reliever. So Kyle Finnegan could easily go. But I don't see them touching McKenzie Gore, who they've got till the end of 2027. Finnegan's interesting.

That's a really interesting one because he's 32 also. McKenzie Gore? No. No, Finnegan. Kyle Finnegan. Oh yeah, yeah. So he's an older guy too. So there's only, he's been really good for three years now

But like how long is that window because he's older and he threw and he's throw it hard He gets by throwing 97 98 and it says last year arbitration So he's gonna be I don't know what you jump from from five to if you're a closer Maybe seven eight nine ten, whatever. It's not gonna be super cheap It's not be super cheap But also like he's a type of guy you can slot in and could be a big deal for a team that's really hurting for someone who's good in the pen,

but also- Could close or could set up or whatever. Could close, could strike guys out because there's some teams we're gonna talk about in a minute who need a guy maybe like him. Yeah, it probably fits in well on a big budget team that could use him as a seventh or eighth inning guy next year if they don't see him as a clear cut closer in 2025.

But also not a surprise, you know? So I think, you know, in terms of surprises, I look to the American league where you might have a team like the Rays who are 48 and 48. You'd say, hey, that's pretty good. Well, it's 10 games out of first in the division. And it's not even particularly close to the wild card. You know, like the AL wild card,

the AL wild card right now is Red Sox at 50. The second AL wild card is a Red Sox at 53 and 42. So they're not, the Rays aren't that close. Blue Jays at 44 and 52 are even further and they're a good team. But see, I would count it as a surprise actually, if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette were traded. Just because, you know, I think the Blue Jays

want to rerack and try again next year. You know, I would kind of, I would say that would be a surprise. And the other surprise that, you know, we've tried to pull three or four times already is Randy or Rosa Reyna, but anybody on Tampa, I think, is kind of fairish game because they're always thinking years down the line. So anybody that's a little bit expensive like Andy Diaz,

you know, that could be a really interesting pickup especially for a team that is one way and wants something that's different. He represents something really interesting. He's a very flat bat path and he hits the ball extremely hard. So you might have a team that's more full of golfers who hit the bottom of the zone, you know? And then he's like, and let me just put Wayne Yandy Diaz in the middle of this to like just spank heaters at the top of zone. It might be really interesting. He has also great plate discipline and makes contact. So it's like a very interesting hitter to throw in a lineup. Yanderey- Mariners! Stan- Yeah, right?

I mean, don't they need someone who hits the ball hard? Yanderey- High-prince. Just flip them. And then, and the Rays and the Mariners love trading with each other, so it's like, that's, that's, that's, he would be a really good fit there. Don't try to get juice, never try to get juice from the Mariners, everyone's thinking, they're like, when you guys get homers, whoever hits homers isn't gonna hit homers there. So stop thinking that's the thing you need.

Yandy would be great. Yeah, just hit your, hit your, you sit here sitting, it goes really hard. Get us some doubles, get on base, just keep the ball moving. If you're shopping while working, eating, or even listening to this podcast, then you know and love the thrill of the hunt.

But are you getting the thrill of the best deals? Rakuten shoppers do. They get the brands they love with the most savings and cash back, and you can get it too. Start getting cash back at your favorite stores like Old Navy, Best Buy, and Expedia, and even stack sales on top of cash back. It's easy to use and you get your cash back

through PayPal or check. The idea is simple. Stores pay Rakuten for sending them shoppers and Rakuten shares the money with US cash back. Download the free Rakuten app and never miss a deal or go to rakuten.ca to start getting the most bang for your buck. That's R-A-K-U-T-E-N. buck that's R-A-K-U-T-E-N. Disco Dave has a wild scenario here with the Mariners trading Luis Castillo to Baltimore for prospects and then using those prospects

and some of their own be enough to get Jazz Chisholm and Vlad Guerrero Jr. I mean, it's fun to think like this, but like how often do you think like this happen? I think the closest I can think of is the A's trading. Do you want to assess for this and ending up with John Lester somehow? It is hard to make another one trade for Lester. No, but like making one trade that's contingent upon another trade is very tricky because things

can break down and fall through. If you don't make it a three team trade right off the top, you may end up caught in the middle of the two deals where something last minute changed and now you didn't get the thing that you wanted done. The contract they gave to Luis, Luis Castillo, the way they treat him, I think they want, you know, yes, they, they have a lot of pitching, but I think they want him there. Like they think of him as like, you know, either our ace or you know, our veteran ace, you know He's got three more years left on that five-year deal that he signed So I don't think he'd go but he certainly fit into the surprising players to get traded Ben

Because nobody's writing that one up from what I have seen so far I think we have a couple other players like Pete Alonso kind of stuck in the middle right now because the Mets have played well enough where if the Mets say, you know what, one thing you can do with the trade deadline is add payroll and not give a lot of long term value and you can make your team better. They could certainly go down that path and that team that just gets in and then somehow makes noise in October. I don't think that's that far fetched. So the initial Pete Alonzo didn't sign an extension.

The Mets aren't going to be good this year. Narrative that's kind of been broken through the first three and a half months of the season. Who's like a Jake Bergerish type person? Like, could M.J. Melendez get traded where he's got years of control? It could be look like a buy for somebody. But for the Royals, it's either opens up cash for another deal or you know gets them back something they need in the bullpen or I don't know. The Jake Berger you know Aaron Savali trade is actually I think the hardest to predict because that's like a role player with lots of years of control sometimes being sold from a contender you know.

Like a lateral shuffling move. Yeah sometimes it's like they're just moving around pieces on their 40 man I think the best attempt at that right now and he's been flagged as someone that would get moved because of where the A's Are at is Brent Rooker I think Brent Rooker kind of fits into that where you get several years of control left You don't even know for sure if the performance at the end of his arbitration window is gonna be so good That you're paying eight ten twelve million dollars for that final year to keep them But you say you know what I don't care about that far into the future. He makes our team better right now I think that's probably why you see Brent Rooker showing up as a target for

Atlanta and Kansas City and all these teams are looking for a corner outfielder. And I think he would qualify as a surprise because he does have three years of control left. But it wouldn't it wouldn't be a surprise in terms of where the A's are. You know, it might make sense for them to do this because, you know, I feel sad for Brent Rooker having to play in Sacramento next year at 115 degrees on the field. Feel bad for everybody in that situation because it's hardly optimal. But how about this? How about I make a case for Jordan Walker

as an unexpected player to be moved at the trade deadline, right? The Cardinals truly fit the at the fork definition, leaning more toward being a playoff team than not, or at least flirting with that line. 41.3% chance of making the playoffs according to Fangraphs. They're four and a half back of the Brewers. I think most people outside of Wisconsin and many people inside Wisconsin think the Brewers are gettable. They're just waiting for the wheels to fall off, that they've been able to do this with pitching that couldn't possibly sustain for two and a half more months.

That's the tone, right? Everybody has that vibe. Oh, who's saying that, Derek? Yeah, the haters. Bob from Economo Walk. You know? And no, it's not just, it's also people on this show. It's also, it's Britt, it's Katie Wu, it's Eno.

Stay with your chest. It's every, but Trevor Britt, it's Katie Wu, it's Eno. Stay with your chest. It's every, Trevor, you're the only person I've worked with on the show this year who hasn't crapped on the NL Central. So if you'd like to talk down on the NL Central, the floor is yours for a moment because that'll be the coverall, that'll be everybody. It's funny, as a player, like,

the doom and gloom around the, the, the brewers for me is I'm like, why it always ends up being okay. Like brewers always get it. Like for me, they never collapse, but like everyone's like, well, we're just waiting for it to be less of what we want. I just think that that's, I don't know, a baseball fan thing. Yeah. I don't see it the same way. Well, then again, I'm, I'm over here watching the Mariners every day and we're waiting for that just to be like,

we're waiting for the, I mean, I was on a team in 2021 that did the same thing. We met, we weren't first forever, but we weren't like, we weren't in first, we were like eight games over the whole time. It was just a matter of time before someone else started playing better and then passed us. So like, but it's not that situation in my opinion.

And I feel like people are thinking that way. Now I understand like the holes are big and glaring and, and how can we possibly sustain this with the pitching we have? But fortunately everyone else in that division has the exact same problem. So, so like, except, I mean, except for the pirates, but they're the pirates. So it's like they have their own thing where they collapse. So, or they have, they underperform regularly. So I still can't crap on the end all central I think it's I think that the but the Brewers deserve where they are now And I think that the overall they're the best team right now still cuz I'm not like I'm not threatened by I don't feel

Scared of the Cardinals like and then who else they're all everyone else under 500 So it's like but they do need starting but you're right. They need a starting pitcher if they get one though I think that I think that tune flips quick if they get a quality starting pitcher. Now I don't know who that is, like Eric Fetty, like, like it's probably not the needle mover with the exception of maybe like, they could use Scoobal. Sure, yeah.

But everyone could, Crochet, but you know, who knows? Crochet is throwing like 30 more innings for the rest of regular season. Like, so like, what's that mean? So yeah, I mean, that's how I feel about the Brewers. I think they're, but they're always, they always impressed me. I'm always like impressed by what they're able to do with what they have every year. And it's just funny to hear that the opposite from the fan base. I think they must have really strong game planning and really strong player

development in terms of, you know, they haven't had like, we'll see about Jackson Cheerio, they haven't necessarily pumped out stars, but they've pumped out a lot of really good players. It's, you know, it's on par with the Cardinals who seem to be really good at making league average type position players, you know, and then you have this Jordan Walker, who like they, you know, feels like maybe he's out of favor in St. Louis, you know, and he's not helping them now. And they have a long-term need when it comes to pitching. We were just talking, you know, about how, if you're in a, in a postseason

series with the Cardinals, you have to fill in their second pitcher with a trade acquisition, like in a playoff series, right? I mean, you don't want to go to, you're not going to battle with Sonny Gray. And then Myles Michaelis is pitching your second game or whatever, you know, or Kyle Gibson. Like I don't, I don't think that's a really good playoff rotation as much as, you know, I respect those pitchers. So it's like, I would rather, even if you take, you say Kikuchi and put it on that team, it's a very much a band-aid, you know, and it's just a rental. And I don't know that it stacks up super well against like the Dodgers, you know, in terms of pitching to that lineup. And then in, you know, so anyway, the Cardinals can get there.

But what if they'd made a trade that was more about winning once they got there? And so they tried to go up the food chain a little bit and maybe get into the Garrett crochet sweepstakes with Jordan Walker. Right. I think it's Walker and some other pieces in order to even get there. But I think when you're getting nothing from Walker this season, I can't believe he hasn't hit his way back onto the roster yet, that as a 21 year old he was 16% better than a league average hitter last year. Everything was trending in the

right direction over the course of the year for Walker. He fits the description of what they're looking for. They need more right-handed power. Power, yeah. And it's like there's the guy and he's struggling at AAA. He's got four homers in 59 games this year. It's weird. It's strange to see a guy play that well in the big leagues as a 21 year old rookie gets sent down and gets stuck for basically a half season at AAA.

But somebody will see his raw power and see his ability to make contact and decent eye at the plate and be like, the pieces are here. Like, let's bring him in with our hitting coaches and see what we can do. and decent eye at the play and be like the pieces are here. Let's bring him in with our hitting coaches and see what we can do. I think he would be a prize acquisition

and for St. Louis, maybe they just feel like, I don't know if we're gonna fix this or I don't know if we're gonna get this going. So he would have to bring back a piece that had multiple years of command. I don't think, and this is a little bit of a weird one, but like Jordan Walker for Blake Snell, that passed the sniff test.

It's pretty expensive Blake Snell. It's like 30 million next year at the player option. We're assuming that Blake Snell's opting in for the second year based on how his season has started as opposed to going back to free agency, but... And remember Rodone didn't get traded in the same situation. I don't think teams like uncertainty. They don't like like, oh, is he under contract or isn't he? And that's the only one of the many uncertainty things

attached to Snell. Yeah, exactly. That's a very not Cardinals thing. That's probably the last team of the 30 that would do something like that with Blake Snell, too. He's just not their type of guy. They seem like a command team. They really like to buy command in the rotation, so.

Yeah, that's the strange thing about them, right? I mean, they're 14.4% K minus BB percentage from the starters. 16th, right in the middle of the pack. 13.9% from the relievers. 15th, middle of the pack. Defensively, whether you use defensive run save or out's above average,

they're 13th or 16th, middle of the pack. It's like they're just kind of okay across the board. So you kind of can take your pick of whatever you want to improve. But I guess if you believe that Goltzman and or Aronado. That's what I think. More like themselves in the second half, you're probably pushing harder on the pitching

than you are trying to upgrade the bats in the lineup. I think no matter what you do, you're not really a playoff contender unless those two guys start hitting like they're supposed to. So on some level, you're like, why spend a lot of future pieces to add to that lineup if really it's just like, I can't, I can't make a good lineup out of this if they are not good. That's how I see it. So like, I don't think can't make a good lineup out of this if they are not good. That's how I see it. So like, I don't think I want to do that.

And I think that the rotation looks bad enough where I least want to put a rental in there for a postseason series. So I think I would just focus on a rental starter. Just hope my bats turn it around. So if you can't go big in a trade involving Jordan Walker than you're upgrading smaller. One rotation spot, maybe extra bullpen arm for depth, one more complimentary bat, which is going to make Cardinals fans upset. I went on the radio in St. Louis and they're like, who could we get?

And I was like, well, you know, there's a pretty good right-hander, top of the rental list. His name is Jack Fletch. Yeah, they didn't want to hear that, did they? Yeah, but they could be a Max Scherzer team if the Rangers fall out. I think that could be something that fits them, actually. OK, yeah, that could be interesting.

Maybe I think because of the no trade, there's a little more of the less certain less certainly going to be moved. But at the same time, like certainly going to be moved. But at the same time, like, sure as hell. I mean, he went to Missouri. Maybe St. Louis is on the list, guys. Yeah. Maybe, maybe it is. Let's shift the focus over to the Red Sox for a few minutes.

I was looking at their schedule before the deadline. They start with three against the Dodgers in LA, three in Colorado, which is just a fun house, even though the Rockies aren't good, three against the Yankees and they'll be in the middle of a three game set against the Mariners when that deadline arrives a couple weeks from now. This is an interesting team too because I don't think they necessarily expected to be 11 over 500 and only four and a half back of the Orioles right now. They're sitting with a 52.5% chance of making the playoffs according to fan graphs is a tick below 50 percent at 48 percent by BP's Picota system

and even Craig Breslow he had an in-game interview on Nessun recently and he said this team has put themselves in a position where we have to take them seriously which is that's why i'm thinking like wait were you not take them seriously. Which is, that's how I'm thinking of like, wait, were you not taking them seriously? You're on TV, man. It was an amazing amount of quote. I know it was said that and it was like, oh God, oh, there's my first one.

Didn't mean it like that. Yeah, I mean, we always believed in you, but yeah, trying to walk that one back. It is a little funny because the first thing you think about when you look at the Red Sox is, boy, they could really use an impact starter. Like they've done really well with that rotation, but Chris Sale would sure look good atop this rotation.

And it's even worse just because Von Grissom's been hurt. It's been just a lost season for him so far. There's a chance Von Grissom comes back and is a good player and actually fills a need on the infield and that helps. That's possible. But where do you think they go? Jen McCaffrey just wrote about their possible deadline and suggested a reunion with Nathan Ivaldi.

If the Rangers are in fact moving some pitching, that seems more like the cost level that the Red Sox would be comfortable with given their lack of confidence perhaps in being in this position in the first place. So is it Evalde plus one hitter and that's probably a good deadline for the Red Sox if you're running the ship there?

I would say yeah. I think Evalde would be a great pickup. I think Texas is, I can imagine what the conversations in the, up in the offices are right now because they could clean up. They really could. They have a lot of attractive rental pieces. Lot of attractive rental pieces like Kirby Aitzen,

Robertson are like, they would love to have one of those two guys. I was saying like Haney's a really good rental for a back end of the rotation because he can go into your bullpen. And now you've got like a power mid, like playoff bullpen guy, like a powery that can come in to give you two innings If you want the middle of the game, he's extremely versatile

He's shown that he could do it and he's done the last couple years and he's been throwing really well as a Just a full-blown stretch out starter right now So it's like talking about that game me through against the Orioles a week or two ago That was really impressive and and he's his command seems like he's he looks like he's dialed in pretty well And so if they sell I think the number of teams, especially in the NL that are gonna try, at least to do like some sort of grab one guy, I think they could get, like they could,

they could move five guys raw and either expiring contracts or have one year on them and really get a lot back from five different teams. And that would, and they have enough, like they got DeGroms still on contract for a while, you know, they got Sime And they have enough, like they got DeGrom still on contract for a while, they got Simeon and Seager, like they have their core still. So they're in a really good position

to where they don't have to like tear it down and still get a ton for a guy. They have a lot of that capital. So that's why I'm saying they're gonna probably do that. I'm feeling really good about them just being sellers. I don't think they're, just because they were so confident and they're not really buying a lot in the off season. So I feel like they're gonna confidently sell

and just be like, you know what, this is what we're doing. If I was them, I would say sell and sell for arms. Yeah, go get arms. Sell for like high level arms. Something, you know, ask your nerds who they like, who's high in stuff plus, who's high in this, whatever. Find guys that you can change. Find guys you can coach up and just get a bunch of arms

because that's what they'll be trading away and that's what they need. So yeah, I could see that. I hate to do the same thing I just did though. Von Grissom to the White Sox for Gary Crescendo. No, the, however they got that deal done, however the Braves did that, the Red Sox aren't getting equal value

trading away Grissom right now. Well Well that's a sunk cost fallacy. You could say, hey whatever he is worth, he's worth. We don't have to think about what he did before. But I do agree it's a human thing. I don't want to admit I messed that one up. Well it's also an optics thing too. They have to explain it and they don't want to. You know you got to explain it to people that don't care about all the underlying stuff and like the not because they will. That's not a sunk cost fallacy.

Yeah, right. Yeah. Craig Feslow saying that to the media is going to go over. Yeah, he's not going to say that. I have confidence he won't say no, that's not going to happen. Yeah, he's got feel, he knows. But I think what's hard about the socks thatx that's interesting is that they're actually kind of really good in all these different ways. Like I was like, oh, they'll just get a reliever and say we did something.

I mean, they don't necessarily need to get a reliever by war, Fangraft's war. They're the third best bullpen in baseball. I guess like maybe some power in the bullpen. They're kind of funky in the bullpen maybe but you know, even some of the guys They throw they don't throw soft But just like thinking Jansen's like not throwing as hard as he used to so maybe having some sort of like hard-throwing guy That you could bring in if I want him to get a strikeout guy if they can someone with a good breaking ball So I'm like they only have two guys with ten holds

Everyone's like five to ten like the whole bullpen So they've just kind of mix matching to try to get to Kenley. And having the one guy you're like, this is our guy, at least our one in the Kenley group where eight, nine is good. It's a big difference between having eight, nine covered than just nine covered.

And they're 15th in bullpen strikeout rate, so you're right. Yeah, they're not punching a lot of guys out. Though Martin is throwing a lot better lately and his strikeout rate is increasing. They don't have a bunch of swing. Actually, It's honestly the same thing the Cardinals. They they've been relying very heavily on They have a guy with 26 holds. They're the 26 and strikeout percent, but they're fifth and walk. So like they're due very Cardinals But it's just like you need one. You need a fireman type guy

Everyone can use one the Blue Jays have a couple.. Helsley's not really an every night guy too. So if you got Finnegan or something, like Finnegan clothes on the guys on the night, so he's not. And he's old, they love that. But the socks are, you'd say, okay, a bat, but they're very obviously have two guys that need to be better going forward in Masataka

Yoshida and then Tristan Cass is coming back and if you I hate to be like oh our best trade acquisition will be Tristan Cass is coming back off the IL but like You know, you're not gonna improve first base if you got Tristan Cass is coming back at some point, you know I thought have you heard have you been following the Tristan Cass? coming back at some point, you know, although have you heard, have you been falling that just in castles? So you're supposed to be swinging. And so they were asked him like, so you were doing a swinging guy. He's like, yeah. And then she was like, what kind of swinging? He's like, well, in my mind, mostly mental reps and the socks. Oh, wait, you didn't actually take any physical reps. So they had to kind of update their time frame

well since he's actually we thought he'd actually been swinging he explained it for a while too about what it is to do swings in your head so he went on like and they're like just to be clear you're talking about mental reps right so that we because we're writing articles here, man. We gotta tell people whether or not you're swinging. He did an in-game interview about how his dad got arrested on a little league play, on a little league field on Father's Day. I love that guy. He's John Crook while he's playing, man.

Oh my God, I love that guy. It's hard to find that much entertainment that easily but Tristed Cassis is a never-ending supply. I mean he's important to them for sure down the stretch I think. You're not going to upgrade first. Yeah, Dom Smith you could. No, you're gonna you're going to get Cassis you know and you're hoping that Von Grissom puts it back together. I think that's what you're hoping is he puts it back together and comes up and can be a piece for you. He has some versatility. He's not the best defender but you can play him in different places. Right.

Play him at second, move Hamilton back to short, move Raffaella back to center, move Jaren Duran back to... Shuffle everybody around as you need to. Improve your defense by bringing him up. Would you consider Adolis Garcia, either for the Red Sox, right-handed power, fits into the corner outfield mix, adds a defensive value, having a down year at the plate. But if you're the Rangers, so much of the conversation around the Rangers

is the pitching depth, I agree with that. I think that's where most of the moves are gonna happen. Garcia's one of those guys that in the right deal, I think could be on the move too, right? Look what he's done prior to this season. Usually you're about a three win player. Looked great on the big stage last year, so you get that, has that playoff experience,

that's always a nice little roundup sort of thing, and you're thinking about bringing somebody into the fold. So how about Adolius Garcia, either to the Red Sox or elsewhere? He looks like a Red Sox to me. I could see him in a Red Sox uniform. First of all, he passes that test. He's kind of in that fan favorite, like,

Ranger, core guy. He's in that core that fan favorite, like ranger core guy. He's in that core and he's been there for the tough years too. So that would be a tough one for the fans to swallow. But again, in terms of, and he's also, you're right. It's a little bit of a down year, so that might hurt what he's asking for. But again, so many teams that might want to add,

he would be, he's like a type of guy too, like not quite a Cespidus type, but like he could just go and rattle off 12 homers in a month. He could just do that. And that's the type, he's got that kind of like wild card thing going that I don't think there's many other guys on the list, maybe Randy. And but to the flip side is like, you know, if you're the Texas, you could be thinking, well, we don't love, you know, his, he he's he's a chaser with a high strikeout rate who debuted late.

So he's already 31. His contact rate on pitches outside of the zone is going to start going down soon. So like his strikeout rate might balloon up to 30 30 plus, you know, in the next year or two, like it may come that fast. And is what's happening this year kind of a harbinger of doom a little bit like in terms of his plate discipline his contact ability could we get something nice out of this i mean i think they would should at least discuss it and i think the teams that be the most interested are teams that would want him for a couple years that are starving for offense and so i mean seattle but

it's in the same division. So I, you know, I think you're a little bit less likely to do it in division. But how about like a Pittsburgh who could like put it as a buy, you know, saying, Hey, we bought, we got a player who's going to be more expensive. We're adding this team, but we're not just adding to this team for now. We're adding to this team for next year and then the year after too. And they, you know, for all that their pitching program has been looking pretty good in Pittsburgh, you're kind of waiting for them to, I think Nick Gonzalez is a little bit of a win for them.

You're kind of waiting for some more wins out of the hitting program. You can maybe help that along by acquiring an Edelis Garcia. He fits in a lot of situations if the Rangers are willing to move on and include him as part of a deal or trade him separately. The thing that Trevor was pointing out before, too, is that the Rangers, they break everything up into four or five deals. Atlanta. I think it's better. It's better to make multiple trades, right? Because you're kind of picking and choosing from each organization, getting a little something you'd like from a lot of different places, whereas if you focus on one or two bigger trades. Oh, trying to bundle three. I've seen American pickers.

Bundling favors the buyer. You don't have to bundle. You don't have to. Either, they don't have to bundle. A lot of times you bundle because you have to. Like, they don't need to because there's gonna be a lot more buyers than sellers. And then on top of that, like with bundling,

bundling really works if like you say, okay, I want to put all these things together to get like Jordan Walker. I want Jordan Walker and I want him specifically. We love Jordan Walker. So I'm going to put together like, hey, we're going to call the Cardinals and we're going to say we give you Haney, Scherzer and something for Jordan Walker. Right. It's all rentals, but we're're gonna bundle them because we want that one guy. Well, that doesn't happen in baseball because it's not good for covering your own ass because if Jordan Walker comes over, you just trade all those guys for one guy,

you got your guy and then he's no good. So it's your fault, just Mr. GM guy. Whereas if I traded that, those three guys for six prospects, you know, from three different organizations, the odds are one of those guys is gonna be good. I can be like, yeah, but what about this guy? We got this guy. Yeah, it's diversifying what you're trying to do long-term.

You're not putting too much behind one major acquisition. And I think that's the main reason why we see teams kind of deal this way now. I mean, actually kudos in this light to Craig Breslow for doing the basically sale for Vongress and that's a one for one challenge trade you know now he doesn't look great for it but it was kind of uh stones-y. Well I was at the Rolling Stones last night. You were yeah. Well, I was at the Rolling Stones last night. You were. Yeah. Yeah.

How long do you have to wait before you could actually say it was a bad trade for the Red Sox? It was obviously a good trade for Atlanta based on how good sale has been. And you have to wait. And they extended it. A year or two. But go back three and a half months ago.

I don't think anybody was expecting this from Chris Sale either. And given the recent problems with injuries. I actually kind of liked the trade at first, because it's like, oh, a position player you have for six years. I thought this was gonna work out really well for the, I thought the change of scenery thing was gonna

help be a big thing for Sale, and I asked him at the All-Star game on Palo territory, and he said, he didn't wanna say like, oh, leaving the Red Sox is a great thing, but I'm like, there is something to leaving that training room that you just lived in, because now when he has that associated, he just comes in the clubhouse and goes straight to the.

You're not associating with success, you're associating with her being hurt. And there is a psychological part of that, and he mentioned it. So I'm like, going somewhere, getting a clean slate, not having to be the guy, not having the big contract, having Max Fried, who's already the ace, you know, like all that stuff, just to say,

he might not have been this Chris Aile either. Yeah, it reset the expectations a little bit. The new chapter, it seems like it's been a really good. Sometimes you need that, even if you're Chris Aile. Yeah, even if you're Chris Aile, sometimes you just need a second to like let my arm, does it work right? Okay, now I can go pitch.

And it looks like that's what he's doing. With Grissom, he's not a free agent until after 2029. So aside from the fact that even if the next two months are still just injuries under performance, okay. We don't have to wait till 2029. You don't have to wait that long. It may have some ups and downs over that time period. Cause they're also. Give them one injury.

Atlanta's paying Chris Sale now. So it's kind of irrelevant after next year. Right. Like because that's almost just like a free agent acquisition at that point. Well, it's kind of like the Paul Goldschmidt trade a few years ago when the Diamondbacks, you know, made that move with the Cardinals, Cardinals extended Goldschmidt. The Diamondbacks weren't going to do that. So the question is, was the year of Goldschmidt that you gave up worth the players that you got back? I mean, that was the ultimate question. Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver and Uber driver Andy Young is our friends, Bogman and the Welsh used to call him.

See, I was so sure that was a bad trade for the Cardinals because they basically paid $50 million for Paul Goldschmidt that year because they paid him $25 million in salary and they also gave $30 million of prospects. Didn't really seem to matter much in the long run though. I mean Kelly's not their starting catcher even. Long term that one's a win for the Cardinals I think pretty clearly. Let's move on. We got a game plan segment here.

It's kind of a modified version of this. As people who listen to this show frequently know we have a bit of an obsession with esoc parades. There's one thing esoc parades does a lot and it's you know pulling the ball. These are some meatball fastballs. That's what Nick Paveda knew as soon as he threw it he just ducked which was no good. Right? Yanking fastballs here. You Darvish misses kind of out over the plate low line drive. It's sort of like the prototypical, this is what Esauk Paredes does.

One thing that surprised me from this is, I kind of put in my head that he's like, the Carlos Correa Alex Bregman pull the high and tight, you know, and he's not. You can see his bat angle from these clips. He has more of a steeper vertical bat angle if you just, the bat versus his body. He a more of a steeper vertical bat angle if you just the bat versus his body. He's more of a golfer. Right. And I started to think, oh, no, maybe it's mostly

fastballs. You look at some of the numbers. Actually, it does pretty well with breaking stuff, too. Here's a pitch. Luis Castillo throws a low and away slider and this almost hits the foul pole. He almost wraps this one around the foul pole in Seattle, which is just like, man, that's that's crazy to be able to do that with that pitch. At least it seems like it is. Then I thought, okay, there's no way he's doing this with outside fastballs, right? You could throw them outside fastballs and that's what the nerd says. That's what we thought.

Look at this one. I mean, like that's a moonshot off Alex Faito. And then Kyle Bradish missed a little more over the plate than Faito did. That one got hit to the moon pulled as well. So this has been the plan this year. If you look at the heat maps, this has been the plan this year because you can tell he's a golfer but out over the plate. Do we have heat maps? Yep, it's coming. Okay, so on the left is just his isolated slugging and you can kind of see his bat path in it, right? You can see that he's trying to golf low and in.

You know, that's his happy space. He might have figured out something high and away, but actually from the video it looks like he's just golfing there too. And so this on the right is the new fastball plan. In the years before it had been high and away, but they're actually trying to get the low fastball on the outside corner where there's, you can see on the left, there's a little bit of a blue,

he has a blue corner down there. They're trying to throw him low and away heaters, probably because he can golf the low and away slider that we saw, but if you throw him low and away hard, he can't get there fast enough to wrap it. You know what I mean? Like he's trying to get that ball out in front. So if it's a low and away fastball that,

but we just showed a clip of a low and away fastball that he managed to golf. And I think one of the things that was interesting to me when I was looking at your clips is that he's got, he's, I think he crowds the plate more against some players and players and against than others. And I think I was looking at his feet and I think they're close. So, you know, I think on some of them he's he's he got closer, which is the one that he's it's the first one. I think he's really close.

Now, the fight, the fight, the one's even worse, actually. He's like you can see on the line. If you stop it, you'll see his elbow is almost on the corner of the TV generated strike zone box. And I think there's a simple reason for it. Faito is mostly a four seam guy, doesn't really throw his two seamer. I mean, if you know that you're not getting a two seamer that's going to come in on your hands, you can cheat more as a hitter, right? You just get out there and look for it. Yeah, my question to Trevor is like, what do you like?

Pull hitters can often pull away pitches. And so, you know, what do you do when you see a guy crowding the plate on you? What do you see when you see a guy who can pull outside pitches? Like what do you do when you're faced with that problem? Specifically with him, and I had to prepare for him in a couple save opportunities last year as he came up both times and first things first he's pretty aggressive so not that he chases a ton but early in counts especially if

he's isolated the side of the plate that you throw to a lot I think that's what he looks at I think he's he wants to he picks does this guy go in or does this guy go away the most and then he just tries to cover that because he's figured out that this he can get a swing. So how far out will he go? He swung at some fast balls, I threw him like six inches off the plate away that he fell off. I'm like, the fact that, honestly, Salvi Perez, very similar, does similar things.

And I'm like, you wanna pull that pitch, but how far out, you get to the point where you physically can't pull it, and if he's swinging like that, you know that's what he's trying to do. So with Paredes, I tried to use my, I tried to use the sweeper a little bit more because again, he goes into galt, like when he breaks his hands,

he might adjust it to get to the lower pitch. So he hits depth, like we saw with the Castillo pitch. But this one stays on plane and goes out. Stays on plane and he gets under it, he popped it. So I think I got him, I'm pretty sure I got him to pop up in the infield on a sweeper. And because he was just a little bit underneath it because he was trying to get that down and away golf, but I didn't throw him the gyro, I threw him, I'm pretty sure I got him to pop up in the infield on a sweeper. And because he was just a little bit underneath it, because he was trying to get that down

on a wake golf, but I didn't throw him the gyro, I threw him the sweeper. And so like more horizontal movement, and then so that gave me both the how far is he going to go out and the type of movement I was looking for. But the thing is he knew I wasn't going to go in. So my only choice was a change up. And I think I threw him one and he took it just to like, be like, Hey, I'm willing to do this, like try to get under your barrel, even though I know you can drop it down there pretty easy.

My change was running at 16 inches. So I'm like, I don't think you can get it squared though. And he just took it. And then I just kept going away and he was, he was continued to go with me. You popped him out to Tony camp on a sweeper on a sweeper. Yeah. So, so, and I remember being like, he was underneath it. Well, honestly, it was like, let's go way out there. Cause he So, and I remember being like- In an O2 count. He was underneath it.

Well, honestly, it was like, let's go way out there, because he was swung at the fastballs off his plate, and then it just kind of like went away, but it had the movement, the correct movement, to where he tried to get square, He still- Lifted, and he did it. He still hit it okay for where it was, I mean.

And he's got a, he's got a pretty, I would love to see too, and I haven't been able to find a good way to do this, but like how guys, cause like Freddie Freeman, right, has a really steep swing naturally, but his range for how he can like go from steep to flat is impressive. And I want to see what Paredes does,

that like how far down he can go all the end, what's the range of the swings he's, he takes and still hits the ball hard. Because according to his ISO and his maps, he's hit stuff up and in well too. So he has gotten to middle up pretty well too, and down and in pretty well too. Here's an answer for you if you remember this.

You stayed away from him on every pitch, on every pitch, except for two pitches. High and tight four singers that weren't even in the zone necessarily. That was designed to kind of brush him, like not brush him off the plate, but sort of make him uncomfortable. Here's a spot that you might have to think about

because he's thinking, cause I'm so, I'm just up and away like from righties, just all the time. Like he met that very rarely threw up there on purpose. And he was one of the few guys we did that though my, nothing I threw really ran or moved in on him. I wasn't trying to get it jam him. I wasn't trying to get it, jam him. I wasn't trying to break his bat.

I was just trying to get him to either take that for a strike and be like, well, now I got to swing at it, or just know that he might get it. It was kind of a win-win situation so that he can't just fully sell out. And then I went off the plate again, and he went way out there with me because he knew I was going to go back.

So it was kind of like a, I know you know what I'm doing, but I'm still going to go a little bit farther than you can actually do the thing you're trying to do. And that's kind of like a, I know you know what I'm doing, but I'm still gonna go a little bit farther than you can actually do the thing you're trying to do. And that's kind of the way, that's what good hitters, you gotta approach them like that. But he was just so aggressive in those situations too that I felt very confident he was gonna swing at the pitch away, because that's very clearly

what he wanted. But if you had a sinker, and you're a guy who can throw like an up and in sinker, like a basset, he could just go, well I bet you he does too, just two seams up and in, and tries to throw them for strikes because you know he doesn't want it. He might take it and then try to get him to chase like a big slow curve ball way off the plate or something.

And he is way on the plate. Guys who do that, by the way, guys who like open stance, show their back foot on the line, those guys, this is one thing that happened in the big leagues that I found, in the minors you go and those are guys like, I want the ball away, I'm trying to get it so I can pull the ball away.

But they also had a side thing, they're like, if you threw down and in, like if you went in and didn't get it quite in there enough, they love it in, so they're trying to coax you to throw it in. If you had that foot back, they can clear those hips really quickly, right? I can clear the hips, but it looks like

I'm trying to hit everything away. So you're like, okay, I can get in on him, like in the very generic one-on-one way of pitching. And then you go in there and say, actually, that's my natural way I hit those pitches the hardest. So I'm way up here to try to get you to throw it in because I want to hit that pitch.

That's interesting, showing the back foot. But generally, those golfer pull-everything types can be kind of hard to pitch to if they can cover the top at all, right? I mean, they become a lot easier if you're like, well, you have a hole at the top zone, I'm just gonna fill it up up there. Galloway just had big, big, big holes

that you could just avoid throwing into the not big holes. But if they can close one of those naturally big holes for guys that pull, usually, like the archetypes are like. Like the Orioles that we talked to last week, where they're like, they're low ball hitters. These guys usually can't hit this pitch. Yeah, low ball hitters. They usually can't hit up and then you go look and they can't hit up sometimes. You're like, well, now what do I do? That's really all you have to do. Even if they're not hitting it as much as it looks like they are, if they just get it a couple times, that changes the

way you think about it as a pitcher and that sucks. So just keep missing the pitch you're supposed to miss, please. Thank you. I think at the top of the zone, Paredes might actually have a bit of an oppo approach because I was looking at, I just did a heat map of his pull zones and it's low and away and mid away, but not high in the zone. So I bet you, if he does do stuff at the top of the zone, it's more of a blocking kind of like, I'm just trying to chop this to right field, yeah.

The more he comes up, the more I wonder, and I think maybe this is in part because Trevor was talking about Sal Perez kind of having some similar things he does. Maybe this is a more sustainable approach than we've given it credit for, you know, because it's not as simple as it seems, not as simple as the result. Not as simple as the result.

There's a lot of ways he gets to the ball to pull it the way he does. I think we're so tempted to look at the results and say, oh, it's a cluster of pulled balls. It's only gonna work for a year or two and he's gonna wash out. But he's got a good enough eye at the plate or you could look at Paredes and say,

this is probably going to work longer than we thought. It's just a question of how much longer is this a 10 year big leaguer who's still savvy and finding ways to do this into his 30s or is this going to be a little more of a fast pique guy that by the time he's 29 or 30 maybe then he loses some bat speed, loses some of this ability. And then that's too much of a of a skills loss for him to get away with what he's doing right now. Yeah, I mean, just analytically, there's some weirdness where like year to year stickiness,

like your ground ball, fly ball mix, your strikeout rates, your swing decisions, they're stickier. This pull seems to come and go a little bit more, where I think we've been talking about pull is kind of an interaction between the pitcher and hitter. You know, pull has to do with your contact point. Pull has to do with, am I going to go get that ball? Is the pitcher able to manipulate that me wanting to go get that ball out in front? Is the pitcher able to pitch to me knowing that I like to golf these pitches? You know what I mean? Like there's an interaction there for pull that's not just the hitter and not just the pitcher. It's in between the two. And then the other thing that is interesting that is in order to know how good your pull rate is this year, I need 200 batted ball events according to Derek Cardy.

200 batted ball events. I need 50 batted ball events to know if your barrel rate is good. So if I'm just asking, if I'm just asking how hard are you hitting the ball? Did you hit the ball hard? Do you hit the ball in the air? I can know that in 50, I can know that almost four times faster than I can know how much you pull the ball.

Because I think you can wake up and be like, oh, I'm gonna let the ball travel this week. Oh, I'm gonna pull the ball this week. You can do it pitch to pitch. You can be like, ah, I'm going for it on this one. Like A swing, B swing. I'm gonna let the ball travel on this. It's a two strike count. I'm just gonna it on this one. Like A swing, B swing. I'm gonna let the ball travel on this. It's a two strike count.

I'm just gonna battle, you know? So I think you can change something about yourself there. That's tough. But if you're like Paredes and you keep doing it year over year, I think another thing that comes to mind is I was talking to a guy who runs, who's the director of player development for his team

just recently. And we were talking about if you have a high VBA, so if you have a steep thing like this, then it does make sense to pull the ball because I don't think you're going to push the ball well. A steep VBA, I think, will create that slice. You know, you'll just chop that ball and slice it just like he did on the pitch you got him out on. He'll slice that ball to second base.

It'll just be one of those really spinny things that's not going anywhere. And if you have a flat sling swing like Andy Diaz, then you can go the oppo really well, right? You kind of just, you're just spraying that ball. You're blocking it. You're just, you can, you have that flat swing. You're just getting to it.

And it doesn't have that much loft, but you're getting it everywhere. What do you need to be successful with a flat swing? Primo, primo bat speed, like Andy Diaz has. You need to murder that ball so that if you murder that ball, you hit a scre- like Stanton. Stanton hits those screamers to the opposite field, right? He just murders that ball so it works. But Isak Paradeis should not try to go oppo very much. He's trying to golf it. He does not need primo bat speed because he has the good VBA. He has the... he can put the good angle on it.

So I propose to you that... this is kind of nerdy, but that there's a optimal contact point for the hitter based on his vertical bat angle and his bat speed. Because if you are a golfer you want to get that ball out in front and you just want to lift it. If you are a primo bat speed flats like a Juan Soto type you want to let that ball travel have great discipline and swing the bat really hard. So there's a little bit the sliders there's sliders on that where you can kind of find some optimal things for you given your bat guy. Sounds a little bit like with pitching,

where it's like, given your fastball, what sort of secondaries should you throw? That sort of deal. There was one other kind of related thought that I thought was interesting as we were getting ready for this segment, and it's that, when we talked about Hunter Brown a couple of weeks ago, the two-seer was really big for him just getting on track

and being as good as he's been for the last two and a half months now. And it was something that Alex Bregman had actually talked to him about. And Bregman is the kind of guy that uses an approach like this where it's very pole heavy, right? And the reasoning was- But he prefers the high and tight a little bit.

It's a little more of a flatter swing. Yeah, different kind of swing. But the reasoning was, I think the two-seamers just keeps hitters from cheating in, from being... It gives him one more thing to think about. And that's why I think when I saw the Paredes versus Baedo homer, where he's like really out over the plate, it's just taking away possibilities,

knowing what the pitcher has or doesn't have in his arsenal. I think that's probably a big part of why multiple fastballs are becoming so much more important in the league, right? Having stuff that moves different ways just keeps hitters guessing, keeps them uncomfortable, keeps them from being able to cheat. Bregman is more similar to Paredes than I thought. He pulls a lot down and in too.

He's a golfer in a bit. One thing that's interesting to me, and I'm just trying like real quick before we have to get out of here, but the idea of like the difference physically what's happening, like when guys are hitting, especially Bregman's a great example of this, like these guys, they want to have their swing

and they want to make a decision on a location in their head and then just whatever happens happens. So whatever you naturally do, when you break your hands, when you turn your top hand over, that is usually when the barrel goes from being in, if you're looking straight on from yourself as a zero point, you're behind that line until you break your hands then you're in front of that line, generally.

That's when the barrel's moving the fastest too. So it's then guys who tend to pull a lot tend to have their barrel more turned over as they're hitting the ball. So it's angled more towards pull and guys like Yandy tend to break it a little bit or not even break it as quickly. And that's why he's got to be moving the bat fast the whole time when Paredes can be slow, slow, slow, quick, slow, slow, slow, slow. So it's like Bregman's somewhere in between sometimes that he adjusts, I think, better. I think he does things that those two guys

both do a little bit, which is why he's been such a great complete hitter for his whole career, basically. But it's interesting to think, so we call it a scoop guy or a hook guy or whatever. That's what they're creating. It's literally, their hands are positioned in a hook when the contact's being made. So guys that do this, a great example is like,

I watch Shay Langelier's all the time and he's got such a quick bat, it's in the zone, in and out, he's got fast bat speed. But the thing is, he's got one swing, so he doesn't adjust it well, and so he misses a lot. But what he does is, when he's good, he hits fast balls to right center, and he pulls breaking balls to left center.

Because that is, based on those speeds, because he's swinging the same, his hands are broken different. It's the same swing, but it's hitting the bat at a different point in his swing. And that's why he's getting those results. Another thing that this person said was that contact point and attack angle are one of the things that you can actually coach pretty well among hitters.

And that basically not everyone gets to their best bat speed at the same place in their swing. So that's a little bit what you're talking about. And so like if you if you're like, oh you get you get into the zone really quickly but you're your quickest before contact. You know, you're almost like slowing down by the time you get to contact. Then you manipulate that contact point or that attack angle to fit those characteristics. It's a little bit easier to do that than to say, hey, like, change your mechanics. You know, it's a little bit more.

That's a judge. He's so big and strong that he can be like fast and then kind of slows hands down and then just like Aaron judge the ball out. So he never looks like he's swinging really hard. But it's also why the guy who taught judge, what he teaches is not necessarily going to work for everybody. But it's really good for Aaron Judge. Yeah. And maybe other guys.

There's a few other guys, Kerry Carpenter. He's strong enough to do some of this stuff too. He hits the ball hard. Not as strong as Aaron Judge. It's allowing him to keep the bat in the zone longer, allowing him to make the adjustments to make better contact more regularly. Though, I think you're right.

I think the criticism of him is the number of guys that this is gonna be really, really helpful for, is it probably not huge? It's not 100%, and for him it feels like it's 100%. He feels like he can help anybody with this idea, you know? Yeah, it's a one size fits all that's not true. If your success story was Aaron Judge, that would give you a lot of confidence in thinking you can make anyone hit.

But look what you started with. Like you started with a pretty interesting player in the first place. Let's just say this, Isaac Paredes can't do that. Yeah. No, but that's why he does what he does. He has found an approach and seems to have this mindset that works extremely well for his strengths. And I think he's now getting a lot more credit for that.

Being an all-star this year and having done it now for a season and a half plus. He's among the leaders in polled homers over the last three seasons. Not a surprise. And they're almost all polled. That's the fun thing about Paradeis that we always like to come back to. We're going to go on our way out the door. A reminder, you can join us live every Thursday on YouTube at one o'clock Eastern. You can find Trevor on Twitter at IamTrevorMay.

Find Eno at Enosaris. Find me at Derek the Riper. You can join the Discord with the link in the show description. If you've got a question for a future stream, hit us up there or send us an email, ratesandbarrels at gmail.com. That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels.

We're back with you on Friday. Thanks for listening.