Rates & Barrels - Trade Deadline Takeaways, Threading the Needle, and Remembering Vin Scully

Episode Date: August 4, 2022

Eno and DVR discuss Trade Deadline takeaways, the frustration when teams try to 'thread the needle' in the wake of the Brewers' recent moves, the seemingly light activity of the Mets, a fascinating Brandon Marsh-Logan O'Hoppe trade, the absence of Ronald Acuña Jr.'s power (so far) this season coming off of a torn ACL, Walker Buehler's pre-injury struggles, and their favorite Vin Scully stories.  Rundown -- All-In v. Threading the Needle -- Wild Card Bubble v. First Place Team in Deadline Decisions -- Shorten Service Time to Free Agency, Push More Teams to Play For Now? -- More Disappointment Per Capita: Mets Fans or Brewers -- Was the Mets' Deadline Really *That* Bad? -- Most Intriguing Deals -- Eno's Bad Mike Trout Trade -- Prospect of the Week -- Getting Dunked On By Kids & A Ronald Acuña Jr. Question -- Injury Risk in Long-Term Trade Targets? -- Walker Buehler's Pre-Injury Woes -- Remembering Vin Scully Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first six months: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Try Tim's new Sweet Chili Chicken Loaded Wraps and Bowls today. Take your taste buds on an exciting new adventure for lunch or dinner with our delicious new Sweet Chili Sauce. It's time for Sweet Chili Chicken. It's time for Tim's. At participating restaurants in Canada for a limited time. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Thursday, August 4th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. We are now two days removed from the trade deadline, and what a trade deadline it was. We, of course, had our live stream on the Athletic Baseball Show.

It's the 3-0 show episode for this week, which I think until Britt comes back should just be the 2-0 show. If we have a guest, we can call it the 3-0 show. If it's just the two of us, the 2-0 show. But will it be the 4-0 show when she comes back? Yes, that's the question. How active will our new fourth host on the show be in the first few months? That's a good question and a great unknown, really, for us as we continue potting.

We'll talk about the busy trade deadline, some observations now that things have sunk in. Seems like an appropriate time to have a prospect of the week segment as well, so we will dig into that. We've got a few mailbag questions to get to, some trading-related stuff as well. Now that we've had time to absorb it, the Soto trade, as it has come to be known, and San Diego's all-in push at this deadline, it's just fun because teams don't ordinarily go this hard all at once. And I think it is refreshing because the contrast of what the Brewers did, who they were a part of the teams that made deals with the Padres, trying to get it right long-term and short-term.

Thread the needle. Trying to be perfect. Let's try to get a little better right now and have more long-term value here. I think that's a really, really fine line to walk and it's also there's a few there's a few downsides to this like it's so much easier to be the aggressive buyer because your team gets excited your fan base gets excited everyone loves you right if you're aj preller you can do no wrong in this moment when you try to thread the needle no way that david stearns is trying no one loves you everyone turns against you the people that are asking your own players the players are sad you're a first place team

and you made your team sad even if you didn't make your team worse in the eyes of your team you didn't get better and that i mean hurts them that sends a message the poetic justice last night of the first inning for the padres walk walk from Juan Soto walk from Josh Bell grand slam from Brandon Drury and then the ninth inning for the Brewers I mean it's coincidence probably yes it is it is coincidence but uh it really sort of underlined, I think, the boost that you can get from the fans were lined up outside the stadium in San Diego. So I know that the numbers say that a single acquisition doesn't drive attendance. At the same time, the intuitive underlying knowledge there that caring matters and trying to improve the team seems to give everybody an uplift. I don't know.

I think there's something there that we might just be missing when we analyze strict attendance numbers. I think the excitement level in San Diego is higher than it's ever been. And part of that is this big trade they made. The other thing that I think is really interesting about San Diego is that we were just on the radio there. And I said that there's no homegrown players on this roster in San Diego. There are. We figured out who they were. Can you guess who the two homegrown San Diego Padres are that were drafted or acquired by San Diego?

Drafted or acquired as prospects? No, not acquired as prospects. Signed. Signed. Okay. Drafted or signed by the Padres. There's only two of them. That was a trade. I was just kind of quickly scanning the depth chart in my head. They're probably relievers. Is it two relievers? Oh, that's good. That's in my head. They're probably relievers. Is it two relievers? Oh, that's good.

That's smart. Yes, it's two relievers. Adrian Morajone's still there, right? Yes, that's one. They signed him as an international free agent. And then the other one would be, is it Rhys Nair? Oh, that's pretty good. I don't know if we looked at at him but uh steven wilson

steven wilson okay but yeah there you go two guys yeah we develop players what are you talking about well i don't know i mean i think there there are a lot of ways to build a team and no this is fine no i'm not i'm not i'm not actually in fact i think it lines up really strongly with aj preller's best strength right his best strength is scouting and acquisition, you know, finding young players, you know. And if he can continue to replenish it, like remember how he first came in and he traded away all the prospects for Kimbrel and Upton and Kemp and he built that team. We all said, oh, what an awful idea. It turned out to be an awful idea, but not that long later,

he had a whole bunch of new prospects. Right. You know? So that's a preview, uh, for my prospect of the week. So here's, um,

here's the big question, right? You think about stuff like Taylor Rogers, ultimately replacing hater in the bullpen, even though it was Devin Williams who gave up the game-winning home run on Wednesday night. Is the gap between Hayter and Rodgers small enough over two months plus the playoffs to say it's so unlikely to make a meaningful difference that it's worth taking on a couple of prospects. It's worth taking on that risk to get young talent in the organization.

Is David Stearns right or is he doing more damage than he is actual good? Because the point of playing the game in the first place, as Herm Edwards famously said in his press conference years ago, you play to win. You play to win the game. You win the game. That's a different sport, but it's the same. When you're as good as the Brewers are, when you're a first-place team, the foot should be on the gas.

The teams that played the middle were bubble wildcard teams and teams that didn't expect to even be close to playoff contention. That makes sense to me. But you can't play the middle when you're a front runner in your division i literally got a text message from an analyst uh in a front office saying they liked that trade and of course they liked it because they thought it was a marginal uh downgrade if if you know if not much of a downgrade from hater to rogers and they loved getting the new prospects however i would have to say the type of prospects you get in a reliever trade like this

even though it's hater and it's one of the best relievers it's not actually like gonna really move the needle for me like for example seattle last year did the same thing where they were threading the needle right and you know the the seattle was wrong and right and wrong again about this trade remember it was beautiful it would they trade away kendall graverman for abraham toro and then also traded for diego castillo so they they were improving themselves for the future. You know, I'm sure. Oh, who did the Brewers also trade for? It's like Trevor Rosenthal.

It's very similar. They added Rosenthal. They got Matt Bush. And your pitching model loves Matt Bush, by the way. Oh, yeah. They quietly made the bullpen deeper. And it's only a little worse at its apex. It's absolutely. The A bullpen is just slightly worse,

but the bullpen they use most often is probably better and deeper. And I think it's hard. I stare at baseball for a living and it's hard for me to explain that to friends, family, fans, people that were saying, hey, why did they do this?

Well, it may not also be right. So here's my longer point. So, hey, the did they do this? Well, it may not also be right. So here's my longer point. So, hey, the idea is free Abraham Toro, free Astori Ruiz. Yay. Abraham Toro has shown us why he was free. Right. And to me, Astori Ruiz is going to do the same thing. Yeah, yeah.

You've explained some concerns. He does not hit the ball hard and also he was being played in the corner outfield in in the minors do you know the number of left fielders that have like a hundred iso they don't exist for very long andrew penitentiary and steven kwan are like if if Ruiz, I don't, he does not going to show that kind of strikeout rate, right? Like he, that's like, there's like a 5% chance that Estrella Ruiz turns into Andrew Benatendi. Like, I, I really don't think that's, that's going to happen. Guess who's third on the list that Estrella Ruiz could be? Tony, MF, and Kemp.

So free Tony Kemp. Tony Kemp is free. Well, and the other argument here, so Robert Gosser might be a nice pitching prospect, but you're telling me if you just stayed put with Hayter now, you couldn't get a prospect like Robert Gosser as part of a trade in the off season? Like if the issue is, well, we don't want to pay Hayter

in his last arbitration year because Marco Atanasio wants us to keep our payroll at 130 million. And if you have $130 million payroll, that's a bad use. He has to go anyway. Fine, okay. The owner imposed limits keep you from retaining him.

Make the trade later. It's the timing. I think it's just the timing that people are questioning. It is the timing that you don't like. And maybe that's what makes sense here, actually, because maybe you don't get as good of a trade in the offseason because you don't have as desperate of teams. In the offseason, they can go sign a free agent

to be their closer. Yep. And then all of a sudden, it's $16 million on the open market for a pretty good closer, or $16 million for Josh Hader, plus a prospect. You know? So, I think

maybe that's the timing is the concern there. And, you know, they did get two free prospects and maybe Ruiz will prove me wrong. I think it's fascinating. I don't want to be wishy-washy and be like, eh. I kind of prefer the Preller approach a little bit.

I kind of prefer... I want to say I prefer the DiPoto approach, but he did the same thing. Right. But, you know, I think it's a little different to go and get Diego Castillo than to get Matt Bush. I think it's a little different. Kind of. Diego Castillo is under contract for another couple of years. Right, Bush isn't.

So, yeah, this doesn't help you in the long run in that particular area, but you helped yourself in another area. I don't know. Maybe the Brewers believe Asturias can play center field. Maybe that's part of this, and I'm not on that. I mean, they've improved other players' defense. He is still playing center field. Maybe that's part of this, and I'm not on that. I mean, they've improved other players' defense.

Yeah, so we'll see. But they have outfielders at AAA. Sal Freelick is there. Garrett Mitchell's there. Some people think Jack Centurio is the best prospect in baseball now. Right. Also an outfielder. So I just, I didn't quite understand it. I don't always understand

the moves when they're made. If you look back at the last trade they made with the Padres, it looked like a big W for the Padres. Then it looked even. Then it started to look like a win for the Brewers. And now it's kind of trickling a little back closer to even again. But long-term, that might end up looking just fine for Milwaukee. So I don't know.

The Brewers make fascinating trades, right? And Nelson Lemaitre got DFA too. Well, I think that might have been matching salaries. I think part of it was actually buying a prospect. They got Ruiz because they took on Lumet's money in order to make the hater thing work for the salary cap in San Diego. Right, to get more than free Robert Gosser

in the bullpen downgrade, they had to take back Lumetet, but I thought, I reasonably thought that they could make LeMet a reliever. And why not put him, like, aren't there enough bad relievers in Milwaukee that they could just put him in the bad reliever pile until he pitches his way out of it? I thought so, but the other

plot twist is that apparently he just recently reached the service time point where he couldn't be optioned to AAA even though he had options left without agreeing to it. So they either missed that or miscalculated it or that was something else that I saw thrown out there.

And so I don't know if they made that trade thinking they could send him down for a little while, but we'll see. I wonder if there's certain things you can ask and certain things you can't ask a player. Maybe they just weren't able to maybe because of timing they weren't able to reach out to nelson lamette and ask him if he would accept the you know demotion uh because there's the whole thing in toronto where they traded for whit merrifield who isn't vaccinated and then somebody asked them and they were like, well, we didn't ask him, but it's pretty obvious that we want him to get vaccinated.

Right. I just think of all the players you could trade for if you had any doubt about a willingness to do that, given where you play and given the requirements to be eligible to play. You'd think you would know before doing that. But, hey, you know, I'm I'm here and they're over there making those decisions. So I'm very surprised that they didn't have some kind of understanding. I think they probably read between the lines of his last statement, like, or a contender dot, dot,

dot. And they're like, well, we're a contender. I'm going to ask you this. I put it on Twitter onnesday and got a few responses that i thought were pretty interesting but do you think the tension between playing for now in baseball and playing for later would just be eased if we had shorter past the free agency both

just in terms of number of years before you have to go on the 40 man and of course number of years before you reach free agency because i just think the the bankable years of an undervalued player, we've talked about how that's led to even fans and readers and everyone kind of fetishizing young players coming back in a trade. I think you'd also just push everyone in the general direction of caring more about today if you didn't have these long future windows to dream on when you acquire a player that's never even played in the big leagues before,

someone that's really low in terms of service time? No, I think it would push more teams to play for the now if that was the case, but I think it's something that the union wants every year and something the owner's not willing to give so yeah it seems like a non-starter but i am increasingly just frustrated by this this idea that we can play both even uh you know one less year of the minimum would do that you know right just go to arbitration faster yeah yeah yes that structure

in any way would would would lead to to better outcomes i i also wonder about the incentives of um tv money sort of guaranteed tv money coming in versus uh what you get from from attendance if you could if you could if you could change that somehow, if you could make it more important to have attendance, like if you could, I don't know, it's not like you're going to take TV money away. Everybody wants that guaranteed money. But there is a certain level that teams get to.

They're like, okay, we want to spend exactly what we're, what we're promised. And then the attendance will be the icing on top, you know? And that leads to a lot of like, this is all we can spend. And that's, that's the last part.

I'm not trying to make this all about the brewers. They're just doing this thing that I think people can get really frustrated by right now. If they had done everything they did and then made a move to get one more bat or just something, some other impact kind of player, and it pushed the payroll up. A lot of people thought it was a precursor to something. I certainly did. I got fooled. But if they'd done that, I think the reaction would be a lot different.

And we talk about it all the time. The caps that GMs work with, front offices work with, are set by ownership. Those are self-imposed. That's just what they are. But they didn't spend a hater $16 million next year.

Right. They didn't get a player that's going to make that. They didn't go out and make the move for a Luis Castillo. Not that they needed pitching, but the player that would be there in 2023 that would also

make them better and cover that. They did it with a cheap league minimum player. Reynolds or Laureano would be somebody who would be a little bit more expensive next year that would play now. It sends a different message. Might cost you one of those outfield prospects. Because then if you're rooting for that team or you're in that clubhouse,

you're saying, well, we, you know, we're going to miss Josh, but we got more relievers, which is great. You know, we're all confident in our ability and we've got an upgrade to our offense. We feel great about where things are at right now. Instead, it was kind of like, yeah, I don't get it. I can even kind of detect it a little bit. I think it was Craig Council. It was Craig Council before the game was talking to the media. And he just had, Council's not like a super high or super low guy most of the time. He's very even keeled as a manager. You could just kind of feel it in his voice too, where it was just like, yeah, we got some good guys back there. And I don't know, like, I just, I listened to him like, this is a guy that is probably not happy about this decision,

even if he fully understands why it was made. That's just the way you have to live, I guess, in a situation like that. It's funny, too, because Milwaukee has not been good. Listen, I think their pitcher player development is great. I think on the hitting side, aren't most of their hitters traded for? Off the top of your head, how many Brewers starters? Tyrone Taylor.

Tyrone Taylor, yep. That's all I can come up with. They didn't develop Narvaez. They didn't develop Rowdy. They signed Colton Wong as a free agent. They traded for Willie Adames. Yeah. Luis Urias was a trade.

Omar Narvaez was a trade. Yeah. Hunter Luis Urias was a trade. Omar Naraez was a trade. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Hunter Renfro was a trade. So they got some hitting prospects. Weehoo. They haven't been amazing at turning those into players. Are they just going to turn around and trade them again?

I don't know. Whoa, what are you listening to this for? trade him again? I don't know. at 3.49% APR for 72 months with down payment. That's just $267 bi-weekly. Cash value of $40,294. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you.

This is for you. The Canadian Armed Forces, a message from the government of Canada. Who's more angry today? You've got to scale numbers down. There's more Mets fans out there. Mets fans or Brewers fans? Who's more disappointed by the deadline? More disappointed per capita.

Yeah, more disappointment per capita. Brewers fans or Mets fans? I don't know. I'm on Twitter too much, so I would say probably Mets fans. Or Yankeets fans. Or Yankees fans. Ooh, good Lord. Yankees fans were not happy. Well, Yankees fans can be a little over the top with their expectations. But they threaded the needle too, right?

I mean, they did go get Montas, so that's unfair to say that. But at the same time, trading Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader does have money implications. And I think it has something to do with next year's payroll. That was the thing that they did last minute. We talked about it on the stream. It was like, why? You don't have enough pitching depth to do that.

You just went out and acquired an impact starter for good reason. All they have is Clark Schmidt now. I mean, maybe Dave Garcia, but I think depending on him that guy is not pitching well and has been hurt a lot and wasn't that great when he was when he was better so i'd say they have clark schmidt and that's and and they're just sort of holding on to the side of their seat yelling we so so mets fans are i also wait wait i also in a piece today i i detailed do do you realize how

how much injury past that they're all their current starters have the yankees yeah tyone has two tommy johns uh herman was on the il for shoulder injury this year luis severino is on the on the il for shoulder injury right now frankie montas was on the il for shoulder injury this year. Luis Severino is on the IL for shoulder injury right now. Frankie Montas was on the IL for shoulder injury earlier this season. Oh, yes. This is a team that doesn't need a guy who's proven to be healthy over the past few years.

I don't know. That one's weird. But yeah, I think with the Mets, they drew a line. And I think the one that I wouldn't have drawn, I think I would have traded Mark Vientos for Wilson Contreras. If that was on the board, and I bet it was, I would have done that trade.

Because Vientos is striking out a lot in AAA. He plays third base. It's not necessarily a premium position. It's not like he's a young shortstop that you've got to hold on and you got to trade somebody keep Beatty keep Francisco Alvarez fine but like you can trade you know one of your prospects it's for a big upgrade um at the catcher position but otherwise I would say the Mets are just an amazing team they're just like pretty well built they have depth everywhere like and they really their worst spot was dh and they improved it with a uh what is it a vogel ruff vogel ruff yeah yeah ruff and ruff and bacher they uh they they have a vogelbach darren ruff combo back there that should be good

righty lefty and um you know that was their worst position before. So they did do something. It's just pretty small. The biggest critiques, I think, for the Mets were behind the plate, especially with James McCann hurt. But even with James McCann healthy, they could use an upgrade. That was the spot that they should have upgraded. If you want to say that they failed at the deadline because of that, I think you're just looking for a reason to be extra harsh. I think it's disappointing. But at the same time, they did upgrade in terms of getting more power. They do

have more depth. And that's one thing that the Mets have been doing going back to the off season. They've built a deeper team than they've had in a long time. I think that bodes really well for their chances of mixing and matching down the stretch, having the right guys in the right spot in the post season as well. So it's not sexy. It's not sexy to go. Yeah, we got Tyler Naquin, Darren Ruff and Daniel Vogelbach. Guess what? Like they're they're better the way they are now.

They are improved and they had a top five offense as it was previously constructed. The flaw was they didn't have enough home runs. Most of the guys they brought back. That's the thing they do first. They hit home runs. And I think that's the that's actually a good sort of way to go uh if you're there and i think the other question with the mets was did they need one more pitcher because of jacob degrom just coming off the il you know carasco's injury history tyone walker's got a few injuries as

well you could look at that group and say they need one more guy to get them there? David Peterson and Trevor Williams are not my favorite starting pitchers, but compared to just having Clark Schmidt, and you have Meggill on his way back, I think he's a big question mark, but that is a superior depth position than the Yankees. In the bullpen, I think they could have maybe added someone in the bullpen to just lengthen it.

The Michael Gibbons one was weird for me because by stuff, he's really lost a lot and he was already below average. And so I think he's, what, their fifth best reliever? Yeah, because Diaz, Lugo, Adovino, and May. And May, when he's healthy, and May's coming back. Yeah, those guys are all better than Givens. So I don't know.

I mean, other than not adding a lefty. Maybe it would cost too much to get someone who is actually better than any of those three? I get it. Look, I am a fan of a team that underwhelmed me at the deadline, and I can understand, but I don't think it's as bad as it can be. But the best of the Yankees, they should be elephants stomping through the forest, right? They should just do everything.

They should have a ridiculous bullpen. They should go out and put David Robertson in that bullpen just because they could. That's a good push here because I think what we don't know about the Mets is what's Billy Epler going to do at any given point? Is he going to be that kind of GM or is he going to try and be a thread the needle type? And this is more what a thread the needle GM would do. And I don't know if threading the needle works in new york you can get away with it maybe in milwaukee if you get the results through the forest and be a beast yeah yeah so that's that's the probably the part that's frustrating it's like well if this were any other team this would be okay but expectations didn't just get soto he got bell and hater and jury and jury like he just didn't care he

needed all those upgrades though yeah they were they were a tier below the best of the best teams in the league even when he's getting healthy they're fourth now yeah in a virtual tie with the braves uh for fifth so and what were they before all their moves like 15th seventh or eighth no okay they're even lower it doesn't you can't move the needle that much because it's Raves for fifth. And what were they before all their moves? Like 15th? 7th or 8th, no. You can't move the needle that much because it's two months and it's war. I thought they were lower in part

because, well, I guess Tatis would have been factored into projections all along, but they were a very average lineup without Tatis especially. Yeah, for sure. They definitely added more war at the deadline than anybody else. So I've decided with more time to let it sink in,

Brandon Marsh for Logan Ohapi is my favorite swap of the deadline. Easily my favorite trade because it was the one we just didn't see coming. My whole piece today for sure. Well, that's always appreciated. So what else made the cut i didn't get a chance to read your piece yet so this is all going to be new to me as we're talking about montgomery uh montgomery montgomery and and the marsh trade were the most intriguing uh there was five intriguing ones the the blue jays uh trade um and the siri trade uh in tampa but but

marsh was uh really and actually what's interesting there is a common thread here And the Siri trade in Tampa. But Marsh was really... And actually, what's interesting, there is a common thread here. Marsh, Bader, Siri. They're three of the five best center fielders by odds above average this year. So there were three teams that went and got elite defensive center fielders. I don't know if it's it's a trend you know every time is it a trend or is it aj preller you know i think it's it's a it's a reminder that there are a few spots where teams really still prioritize elite defense and center field is one of them and most contending teams already have a shortstop in place.

So they're not usually trading for shortstops because that's not how it works, but you can actually trade for, for great defensive center fielders. Yeah, that's true. And, and the through line for all of them is,

is there enough bat? And in fact, of the three, I think Bader, you know, Bader, a guy who, you know,

in our tears project, they said, the scouts said they weren't sure he had a carrying tool bat, like he, that he had a bat, an everyday bat. He has the best bat of these three in terms of, at least in terms of projections. I like, you know, I like Marsh and I like him more than Siri, but I was surprised by how similar they are. They both strike out like 35% of the time. They both barrel around 9% of the time. They both have, you know, 111, 112 max exit VLOs. You know, the one difference is Siri has a swinging strike rate of around 18,

which is high, high, high, high, high. And Marsh has one more around 13. So, and has like an actual reasonable swinging strike rate against fastballs. So, you know, there may be more to work with there. Also, Marsh had lower swinging strikeout rates in the minors, so there may be more to work with there, a possibility of getting him to 28%, 26% strikeout rate.

If you do, I could see a breakout for Marsh. Plus, Marsh is in a nice stadium for his offense. I think this was a good deal for him. Ohop is also interesting because he's an offensive catcher right before automatic balls and strikes. Yeah, I know. You've mentioned the timetable for that. It seems like you have a more aggressive timeline for that than other people. It's on the way, man. It's like in double A. If it's in double A, treat it like a prospect. If it's in double way man it's like it's like in double a if it's in double a it's like treat it like a prospect if it's in double a it's coming man it's like one or two years so uh i i think i think i think the the over under is a year a year and a half you know it's either

two years or one year is my is my guess all right so but but you know i think it's also interesting that the angels you know there's this uh finding uh that matt swartz had that that teams know better about their own players than other teams in free agency i don't know if that's been proven in trades like this but it is interesting that the angels got an everyday look at brandon marsh they they developed him they brought him up uh they released justin uppton this year because they said Brandon Marsh and Joe Adele are the future. And then they traded away Brandon Marsh. Something with Marsh is true like that. They see something they can't fix. So they say, well, we need a catcher for the future.

It's kind of hard to find those. And Logan El Hoppe's blocked in Philly. JT Real Muto's not going anywhere anytime soon. So they saw an opportunity to get better at an important position for them. They've got pretty good outfield depth. I was trying to decide. They really needed a center fielder. Does it really mean anything as far as the long-term health of Mike Trout? Like the Angels' willingness to move a major league-ready center fielder does it mean does it really mean anything as far as the long-term health of mike trout like the the angels willingness to move a major league ready

center fielder probably not actually just because it's one important position for another and i think it's easier to go out and find outfield help than it is to go out and find impact catchers well i think adele can probably play center the the. There's a wild card here, which is weird. Marsh was slated for center, and Trout was like, nah. Nah, I want to play center. Yeah, it was weird. And I think for my team, if we were about winning games, Trout's not in center field for me.

No, no, he would not be. But if he's the leader of the team and you're like, if he wants to play center, he's going to play center again next year, then I guess you trade away the guy who is not a great left fielder in terms of offense and is a better center fielder. So it's a little bit of a team fits for both, I guess, too. Yeah, but I'm with you. I just think that was a pretty interesting deadline.

I think the Angels, I mean, they could have panicked in the wake of the Trout news. They could have moved Otani, too, and it was clear before the deadline that they decided they weren't really going to make that happen, at least now. Maybe it'll happen this winter, if it happens at all. I think a lot's going to hinge on just the overall health of some players

coming back, but surprised they moved Rysel Iglesias in that multi-year deal because if they thought their window was still as open as it was going into this season, getting rid of an impact reliever probably wasn't the thing that made the most sense. Counterargument to that, though, Tucker Davidson comes back. Controllable pitching for them, it's important. Starting pitching has been as hard for them as anything.

Maybe they feel like they can just go out and spend $15 million a year again on a new reliever. Maybe go get Kenley Jansen. Kenley Jansen, right? Yeah, because Iglesias goes to Atlanta, you can make a one-year deal with Jansen, you don't have the multi-year closer anymore, and you've got other good relievers.

So that could be part of their plan. But I did sell low on Mike mike trout in one of my leagues what'd you get this might offend some people you might get some yelling i i did have a friend tell me that i did poorly um uh it's a keep six and he's like a fourth rounder so he's you know you keep him at their round so he's already he's was already my most expensive keeper um my other keepers were like jordan alvarez in like the 10th you know shohei otani in like the 11th so like you know i have some really great keepers i won last year and i'm in the in the yeah thank you those of you on YouTube can see which way Derek is already leaning.

Anyway, making excuses. But I traded him because I thought of him as my fifth best keeper out of six. I traded him for people that I'm not sure I'm going to keep, but would help me win this year, which is Reese Hoskins at first base going into a timeshare or pushing Rowdy Tellez to the bench. And Stephen Kwan in center, who pushes Aaron Hicks off of my team. So I think – and this is a league with Ks by batters.

And I also got Noel V. Marte. We have four free minor league keepers every year. Okay. So I got Noel V. Marte. We have four free minor league keepers every year. Okay. So I got Noel V. Marte as the minor league keeper that's free. Hoskins goes into a group with Bregman and Gleyber Torres as my final keeper. So I went from Trout as my final bat keeper to one of Hoskins, Bregman, or Gleyber Torres.

to one of Hoskins, Bregman, or Glaber Torres. And for that, I got Stephen Kwan, who I was running Aaron Hicks out at center, and I need to do better. So it's now Hicks, Profar, centerfield platoon. And, you know, I guess maybe I didn't do enough. But here's my thinking. Here's my thinking on Trout.

We talked to a back expert in email who is talking about this. I have very little faith he's coming back this year. First of all, the Angels aren't good. And there's no reason for him to come back. And secondly, this is the type of injury I gather from speaking with this back expert that is fairly serious, and you should give it all the chance to heal. Now, he seemed to suggest that if you give it all the chance to heal and heal well, he might be fine going forward. However, what I see with Trout is this ongoing issue where if there are any injuries,

he's just going to be done for the year if the Angels are bad. So I bet against the Angels as much as I did Trout because Trout could go back into next year and be like, I feel good. Everything's fine. He could play for three months, find some nagging injury. Angels are out of it.

He's like, nah, peeps, I'll be back again next year. So has that not described like the last two years? It's fair, totally fair. And look at the games played count and go all the way back to 2017. 114, 140, 134. So not bad those two years, but wear and tear starting to pile up. 53 out of 60 in the shortened season, 36 last year. And if he's done this year, 79.

We don't have confirmation of that. It's just the speculation. It's a high risk that if the Angels are bad again and he's got some sort of injury, he's just going to be out. Plus, he was the most expensive keeper I had. Yeah, well, okay. It's not a bad trade. I'm not going to be as mean to you as your friend was in this case.

I think your theory about how they would handle him makes sense. The organizational track record over the better part of 20 years would lead you to believe that you're acting on the side of, yeah, any sort of nagging problem is going to shut Trout down. And even if we're talking about two to three seasons into the future where he's still a player as talented as he is now, We're talking about two to three seasons into the future where he's still a player as talented as he is now. Very good impact player, capable in a league like yours for sure during that window for the per game production. How difficult is it to replace him in your league? I think it's a huge question and how valuable he is, too. I think we're starting to push Trout into this sort of like stars and scrubs. Like if you're in a 10 team league and you only start three outfielders,

it's really easy to replace a player when he's out. And then the per-game production is still so good that he's a difference maker. In those cases, he fits really well. If you're talking about a 20-team dynasty league, that's a totally different calculus. The waiver wire replacement, and then, of course, where you are in a long-term league. Are you playing for now, which you are? That's an argument for buying Trout, I think, and I'm comfortable with it because we're only a 12-team league, but it's fairly deep.

For example, I was cobbling together my center field, and it was Aaron Hicks, Jock Peterson, and Jerickson Profar. That's a pretty low level of production i was getting and uh uh so you know it's fair uh and maybe i made the wrong move but i also uh would rather be a year early than a year late on some of these declining older bats and i like noel vimarte a lot especially coming up in cincinnati uh and then on top of it i had a chance to win this year, and I don't think Mike Trout's coming back this year. So part of it was, you get a better keeper, I'll have to figure out my last keeper, but I want to win this year. I'm in third place. If I can run somebody better than Aaron Hicks out in center field, maybe I can win this.

Trout turns 31 on Sunday. What does someone get Mike Trout for a birthday gift at this point? Buy-in for his next fancy football league. It sounds like he is kind of a donor. Or I take over commish for you. That's a real good birthday present. That's one of those gifts. You know when sometimes you see

a charity auction and it's a gift value, priceless. Being the commissioner of that league, I mean, obviously he was in over his head in that case i was thinking maybe mike trout would like an astrolabe which uh there's an episode of the simpsons where homer buys an astrolabe so it's um it's an ancient astronomical instrument that uh was a handheld model of the universe so it oh yes i think he might like something that seems like a thing trout would would actually you know find some appreciation

for but i think the commissioning is the best thing you got him the better gift than i did i got him i got him a piece of junk that he'll look at once and throw in the corner yeah so i'm sure we'll have a ton of mike trout talk between now and opening day next year, because why wouldn't we? It's going to keep coming back up. Let's get to our Prospect of the Week segment. Prospect of the Week. I like how you added the music to the vocals for yourself, too, just making my job easier in every possible turn. Since you're very excited for this segment, I you should go first who is your selection you probably have

more than one i don't think there'd be a rule against that there really are no rules on this show very there are very few rules at least i have one uh i just wanted to bring this guy up because he he belongs in that san diego potters a conversation we're having. There's a lot of excitement about Jackson Merrill, 19-year-old shortstop and A-ball for the Padres, and totally could be the next C.J. Abrams that jumps up into the top 15 and the top 10 over the next couple of years, depending on how he ages. I think the one thing we're watching is the power, and he does hit too many ground balls. But he makes a lot of contact, has good patience, very athletic, great tools,

and I think the defense to stay at shortstop. So picking up an A ball guy is better than picking up a low A or a complex guy. So at least he's moved his way out of that. Obviously, it can go any direction from here because he's a 19-year-old in A ball. But I just want to mention that because maybe he's already found the next prospect he's going to trade away. It's a good chance, good way to look at it. it's good good chance good way to look at it i've decided that because i very rarely say nice things about the oakland a's that i should talk about an a's prospect and i was doing some

leaderboard surfing over at rotowire they've got hard hit data on prospects and jordan diaz a third baseman in the a's organization, actually stood out to me. Really young for the level. He's 21 years old. He's played all season at AA Midland. So that's a great place to be for a player that age. He's popped 14 homers to 307, 354, 506 line. Not a guy that I've heard a whole lot about.

I don't dig into a lot of prospect pods outside of the fantasy episode I host with Al every week, just preparing for that. So probably a guy that could creep into some top 100s, just looking at what he's doing in terms of the underlying numbers. Again, age to level, clear path to an opportunity. And I saw that they took Zach Gelof, who's missed some time this year with a shoulder injury, and they were starting to play him at second base. So it almost looks like they're trying to figure out how those two players might fit together on the same infield in the not so distant future. So Jordan Diaz, a sneaky prospect to probably add. I mean, the league you described where you get four minor leaguers, that's probably not a deep enough league because that would mean you to be basically a top 50 sort of prospect to be on the radar in a league like that but a watch list player for leagues like that and probably a must-add type in leagues where at least 10 prospects are rostered by each team and honestly if you just if you are keep four minor leaguers you may just uh eliminate

pitchers from your keeper pool completely in which case you're just asking him to be a top 50 bat prospect you know top 60 type bat prospect so you know he could be on he's probably still on the outside looking in for that but uh you know one thing that i would monitor with him i love his combination of um you know strikeout rate and isolated slugging i just want that ground ball rate to just keep getting a little bit lower you know and so far so good but uh his fly ball rate is also the lowest it's been uh in his career right now at this stop so there's some some uh something there i want to see some growth in the in the ground ball fly ball mix but otherwise uh good pull yeah hard contact up a bit from where it was last year 27.5 sports info solutions provides that data on the

rotowire pages those are scored manually um so they give you a good approximation but again age to level has to be a consideration with diaz but also age for contact quality is something i think is really important hit locations look really good in terms of using the entire field. Maybe he doesn't pull the ball enough. That could be something he does more in the future as he advances. Could be a way to unlock some power, yeah. Yeah, but I really like the overall approach here. Nice low K rate, really productive season at AA,

and just trying to give A's fans something to be excited about too because it's bleak right now, but two to three years from now, maybe it'll start to get a little bit better. Let's get to a few emails here. Got one from Pete. Pete writes, I was ecstatic to get Ronald Acuna at the turn in my 10-man redraft league

and he quickly dashed any lingering injury concern by swiping bags at a higher rate than he has the past few years, but outside of an earlier power surge, his pop to have disappeared he said some bad luck on balls in place on being patient but it's getting harder to watch him roll over on pitches night in and night out any real concern here love the show ps spent part of this summer with my kids in the mountains of zacatecas mexico. And when I had Signal, I would download the weekly episodes for our longer drives.

After a couple of weeks, my kids and their cousins would fight to ride in my rental car because they wanted to listen to the baseball nerds. That might be a new name for the show. Yeah, yeah. It could just be Rates and Barrels,

colon, the baseball nerds. I love it. No, Acuna is obviously struggling a little bit. I want to know if it has anything to do with the knee or it's just something mechanical. I mean, he's obviously hitting too many ground balls and pulling too many ground balls so that, you know, the rollover critique is there. At the same time, you know, the Max TV says the raw power is still there, and the barrel rate is the same as it was in 2019 where he hit 41 homers. That's the rabbit ball, so you would have to change that number.

But I would just say that the raw power is there. He's reaching more than he did last year, but it's not a ton. He's reaching more than he did last year, but it's not a ton. And I see he's like a tweak away. I think something's going to click for him. I think one thing that we can still, the collective, you and I specifically, the one thing that we can really overlook sometimes with a hitter coming off of a leg injury is the importance of your legs in hitting.

I just wouldn't discount that right now. I'd look at this and say everything in the barrel percentages looks comparable to what it was earlier in his career. The hard hit rates being in line, the

strikeout rate still being good, the eye at the plate still looks good. Pulled grounders means something's off. He's definitely something off there. He's pulling off on those. But it seems fixable to me because of the quality of the contact, even though he's not hitting the ball in the air as often as we'd like. So if there is any glimmer of being able to make a move for Acuna in a long-term league right now, absolutely do it. It's disappointing to not have that power, but the steals are so valuable right now, too.

I think he's been better than I expected, even though it's been in a different shape. The production has come a different way so far. What's his earned value? While I look it up, what do you think it is? He picked them 10th or 11th, so I'm guessing it's not 10th or 11th. I'm guessing it's not top 10. But I'm guessing it's still maybe top 20, in which case maybe he's not producing exactly as you wanted,

but he's not tanking your team. So let's have a look i'm looking at 15 team leagues using the rotowire in season number 14 is what it spits out for acuna so that's not top 20 it's actually top 40 top 60 i think would be where that is but hold on a minute though i i do think the the raw earned value numbers are a little bit unfair when we're comparing someone who missed 30 ish games compared to everybody above him so if you adjust it for a time lost because you're thinking about acuna plus whoever you had to replace and you can take a zero date filter on that it'd be awesome

if you could i think he's probably more like a low 20s player since coming back and that does kind of put him in the i don't know the the trout harper seager abreu matt olsen those guys all do it different ways but that that would be pretty good that's closer to like a top 20 top 25 hitter none of those on a per game basis though no no no troutout and Harper were. Well, it's a major injury. I mean, it's again, it's great to see him running as much as he has

because I thought that'd be the last thing to come back. I'm starting to think that maybe stealing bases is not the hardest thing about coming off of a torn ACL. Might just be still hitting the ball might actually be

the hardest thing about it. Thanks for the email, Pete. And I'm glad that your kids and their cousins were enjoying the show. Even if they were just making fun of us the whole time, at least it made some of those drives a little easier to get through. I've got a question here from John.

John's writing about an auto new points league in rebuild mode. Had a few stars this year, including Trey Turner, Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuna, Jose Barrios. He was hoping to flip the prospects and that didn't exactly work out. So he had to settle, try to get better by realizing that trading for hurt players is actually easier to get surplus value on the roster. So the question is, how do you evaluate injured players like Tyler Stevenson or Kyle Lewis, putting prices aside? It seems like those are players that teams are just willing to move

on from. When you're thinking about multi-year players like that, are there certain injuries that you're comfortable buying into and certain injuries that you're not? multi-year players like that, are there certain injuries that you're comfortable buying into, certain injuries that you're not? Is it certain positions, certain skills? When do you feel like injury risk in a long-term league is worth seeking out? The Kyle Lewis thing is interesting because this year it's been a concussion that laid him low after the knee thing, but I think it's the knee thing that's more worrisome

because that's more of a chronic situation that's going to be managed over his career and probably uh puts a an earlier end date on his career and and and and means that he's you know there's gonna be load management involved and you know i i just see that as as you know being a bigger deal. The Stevenson thing is a major injury that may affect him next year, but I think at some point he'll be back to 100% and I doubt it leads to chronic problems. I mean, it all has to do with what it looks like when you get in there. I think how displaced the fracture was and um you know how how long the recovery is and stuff um so you know stuff that a doctor could answer better but i think just generally uh nagging especially like sort of bone on bone remember how utley's career ended uh he had bad knees and he was still good when he was in um but uh it was kind of a like a you know if i remember

correctly um i'm actually going to look up all these numbers now that i said all that but i remember a pretty sharp decline there i don't i don't think you're off base but you can confirm in just a moment yeah for last few four years 400 plate appearances 500 350 200 so yeah i really caught up to him in those later years i think with kyle lewis that's that's the type of chronic injury risk that yeah there's a discount there in a long-term league i'm really not that interested i think he's better better served in short-term situations where people might be undervaluing him you catch lightning in a bottle and you know he's actually healthy for the for the last couple months yeah but i think in multi-year leagues i don't think you're i don't think you're looking at kyle lewis as a you know one dollar three dollar five dollar in-season pickup

that you're going to hold for multiple years and say yeah he's been great he's been a 15 or 20 dollar guy year over year over year after dealing with knee stuff up to this point in his career it's unfortunately just one of those things that's going to hang around i think but stevenson if let's say next year it's not he's not 100 or whatever or he doesn't have the whole off season to train he's not as strong um let's say you get 80 out of stevenson well let's say he's like a three dollar catcher or something right so that means you know uh in 2025 he's a five he's a seven dollar catcher he might still be worth that you. And he'd still be worth keeping at that level.

And he might be cheap enough where maybe next year you have to buy like a $5 or $6 catcher to pair with him just to make sure that you have two good catchers. Between one of them you have a usable catcher. But he'd still have value

going forward and if you might see by the end of next year oh the exit velocities are creeping up the barrel rate's creeping up you know here he's starting to get good again you know he's starting to so i i kind of like a catastrophic injury like that in a better in a way like i just it's just a one injury it's like uh as opposed to sort of a collection of of tissue, nagging, knee problem type stuff. I don't like that. Yeah, that's kind of the key difference for me. You know, the devastating one-off injuries,

they're not easy to come back from, but I'm not as worried about it once the rehab is complete as I am about something that's bothered a player for... Kyle Lewis with his knees, it feels like it's been five plus years now. Yeah, we both think Acuna is going to be great next year. Right. Like a first round talent even. Yes, I would

agree. I think that's still where I expect him to go and of course he's got two months and change to persuade everybody with more production the further he gets away from that injury. But thanks a lot for that question, John. We got another email here.

This is a trade question for Ben. It's a keep seven league with a 260 salary cap, 10-team rotisserie situation, and there's some salaries here, of course, so I'm going to run through this real quick. It's a simple trade. Give away Bobby Witt Jr. in a trade. He's at 15 as a keeper,

and get back Corbin Burns at 27. The other keepers include Devers at 44, Eloy at 15 as a keeper, and get back Corbin Burns at 27. The other keepers include Devers at 44, Eloy at 27 who must be kept, Wander at 15, Chisholm at 15, Joe Musgrove at 15, and Adley Rutschman at 5. So not a lot of pitching on that team, giving up the more interesting young player that can do everything, especially steel bases. more interesting young player that can do everything, especially steel bases. If Devers is 44, though, as a keeper,

and you could keep Burns at 27, if Burns were back in the auction, he'd go for 40-plus, right? Might be your best pitcher on the board. Might even go for 50. And what was Witt's price? Witt was 15. So it'll progress,

and he'll stay behind Burns for a while so long as they can be kept. I love what Witt is doing, dude. His chase rate has just gone down, down, down over the course of the season. I think he's settling in and I think he's a really top, top talent. I think he should be like a – I might push him to like second round next year. I'll have my whole board in front of me, but, you know, like I'm pretty excited about Bobby Witt. I wouldn't do it.

All right, so you like Witt enough to not lock in the top end pitcher at a slight discount because the multi-year discount on Witt you think is more valuable. Yeah, because year over year over year, I think you're going to keep Witt for three, four, five years, and Burns, you know. Do they get more expensive over time? They do. I think we've got for 2024, Witt's only 20 and Burns becomes 38.

That's a pretty big jump. So because Witt moves up slower. Might be a one-year deal for Burns or maybe two. Could be. So I think with that, that's enough to keep it on the preferring the Witt side. And wow, being stuck with Eloy at 27 is not great, but that's a conversation for a different day. But thanks a lot for that email, Ben. I've got a question about Walker Bueller that came in from Matt.

Matt wants to know if Walker Bueller's problems before he got hurt were just a one-off thing or if they were signs of longer-term issues trying to look to make some trades in a keeper league where they can keep eight players. Don't know if I should move him or someone like Spencer Strider or George Kirby for hitting help. So if you had injured Bueller and people were interested versus Strider, who looks amazing and Kirby, who we've talked about a lot on this show, trade Bueller, trade Bueller. Yes,

I would trade Bueller. There was a drop off and stuff on his fourth seam. Uh, that was pretty dramatic. He was still pretty good. And we saw Urias kind of have a drop off and stuff and kind of shrug it off and, and had a greatug it off and and had a great year uh and figure it out but um i just think the bueller is more dependent on his velo than urias

um and uh you can also look at it from a traditional standpoint which is he's always outperformed his strikeout rate and his swing strike rate you know and usually team players don't do that over the long run so i think there's two ways to look at bueller that you sort of you know wonder if the production is going to continue even when he comes back from injury plus he's injured so like they could turn into tommy john like it still could yeah so i would trade bueller in this situation like i'm definitely not trading strider that that's like a rocket ship taking out for the moon what was the other one kirby i like kirby too uh he's very different than the other two more of a

command guy but he's got a bunch of pitches the the stuff is improving a little bit over time and the slider command is elite so i'm gonna take kirby too all right yeah i'm on board with that i mean i just think the the dip for bueller probably brings him down to i don't know top 10 top 15 starting pitcher ceiling whereas a pre-decline with that stuff he had that top five sort of cap that we'd seen in a few seasons. So it's a lower ceiling with added risk. And if you can move that for a bat

that you'd love to keep, I mean, you're probably not getting first, second round bats back in the return, but some of those third, fourth round caliber bats can be just as good. You may not even get that for Kirby. I mean, Strider might, the one argument for trading Strider

is Strider might get you whenever you want. Yeah. Yeah, Strider might... The one argument for trading Strider is Strider might get you whenever you want. Yeah. Yeah, Strider might give you ridiculous stuff back. But even then, the other team might say, how many innings am I going to get the rest of the season? It may have to be with, like, a Rebuilder. Yeah. This might be all about long-term value.

But yeah, you're trading Bueller to a Rebuilder. I guess if the return... If the other team says, I'll give you whatever you want for strider and i'll just give you this list for bueller then maybe compare the lists but my instinct is to say trade bueller but more importantly the broader answer to the question here is that you saw enough of a decline in bueller before this injury to alter expectations for him even if he comes back healthy and this ends up being an injury that doesn't impact him all that much in the future.

But I think there is a chance this is the kind of thing that comes back as something more serious. Certainly encouraging to see him working his way back so far. Of course, the end of the day, Tuesday, we got very sad news in the baseball world. Vin Scully passed away at the age of 94, you know, and I think as many people have said, he's the voice of baseball. Like he, he did that. His career was just incredible. And I think my favorite thing, if I'd watched Dodgers games was to just hear Vin spin the yarn and tell stories that you never expected. And I was wondering if you had a favorite Vin Scully call or story or moment from several years of just enjoying the games he was calling. Because I had the story that sticks in

my head is the one he told about Madison Bumgarner and his wife coming across a snake. And Bumgarner, not knowing if it was a rattlesnake or not, decided he had to take out the snake with an axe. So he cuts up the snake to kill it. And they find rabbits inside, baby rabbits. And they nurse them back to health, which is just an absolutely absurd story. And just Vin casually telling it as he's calling the game the way he really only he did, just weaving things in and out. You didn't miss a second of the game, and you were glued to the story. That's such an amazing gift to have as a storyteller.

I think that was the in-game story that resonated with me the most, and just a guy that we've missed ever since his last game in 2016. No, I remember that one. That might be my pick as well. No, I remember that one. That might be my pick as well. But I think one of the things that really impressed me about him was you've seen so many players and broadcasters with his sort of longevity in the media kind of turn on modern baseball and end up sort of decrying, and maybe they have legitimate gripes, but maybe spending too much time sort of outlining and detailing and chronicling each of those problems with modern baseball where I never really got that from Vin.

I got sort of a lifelong love of the sport and a continued positivity to the very end. You've seen that clip of his last sort of salutation and the Irish poem and Irish benediction. He just was unfailingly positive. of it you know um and that is such a hard note uh to to to continue to ring you know as a writer um cynicism creeps in because you're you're in the you're in those press boxes for bad games and you have bad interactions with players and you can spot maybe something in the game that you don't like and you can start to sort of pick at it like a like a like a like a scab but he just sort of I don't think that he wouldn't acknowledge those things he might acknowledge it and say you

know things were different in a different time but he didn't put that value judgment on it that a lot of older players and broadcasters have. Yeah, I just think that constant joy around the game. I imagine that for most people doing any job for as long as Vin called games, you'd find it dull and boring at a certain point, no matter what that job was. You never got that sense.

It could be a meaningless game at the end of a season with the Dodgers going nowhere, and you'd still enjoy listening to the stories that Vin would tell on the broadcast. I don't think we'll ever have another person quite like him in the sport. Working solo and doing the pre- and post-stuff that he did for so long too. Just truly an amazing talent and just someone that really changed the game in a way that influenced thousands of people that get to talk about it and write about it today. So definitely someone that will be missed. And I've really just enjoyed reading a lot of the tributes and hearing a lot of new stories, but things that were before my time, especially,

and I really, really just enjoyed that coverage, even though it's very sad that Finn Scully is gone at the age of 94. We are going to go. If you'd like to ask a question for a future episode, you can send those our way. Rates and barrels at the athletic.com is the email address. You can drop those questions on this video on YouTube.

Be sure to subscribe to the YouTube channel if you haven't done so already. You can find Eno on Twitter at Eno Saris. You can find me at Derek Van Ryper. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening. Thank you.