Rates & Barrels - Two More Prospect Callups and Spencer Torkelson's Recent Surge

Episode Date: June 16, 2023

DVR and Al look into the fantasy impact of the two latest prospect callups, Emmet Sheehan and Luis Matos. They also discuss the recent improvements Spencer Torkelson has made and Spencer Strider’s home run problem. DVR and Al finish up with a preview of next week’s streamable pitchers and some analysis of the bullpen situations for the White Sox, Angels and Rays. Rundown 0:56 Prospect promotions: Emmet Sheehan and Luis Matos 13:48 The other big news 29:34 Hitters to consider 37:03 Starting pitchers of note 44:13 Two-start pitchers/streamers 56:41 Closer corner Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like... Come on kids, back to the hotel room. Good night kids. Good night mama. Life's a trip. Make the most of it at best western Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Friday, June 16th. Derek Van Riper, Al Belk, you are here getting ready for another weekend of pickups. And on this episode, we have a couple of prospects that have come up this week. One on the pitching side, one on the position player side. We'll talk about a few other players coming off of injuries, demotions, all sorts of big news from the week,

and some recent strong performances that might be pushing players back onto rosters in more shallow formats as well. And as we do each and every week, we'll take a look at some two-star pitchers and some streamers as well. So it's the weekend preview episode of Rates and Barrels. That's what I like calling it, the weekend preview. It's not a fab podcast. It's a weekend preview. We begin today with the Dodgers promoting Emmett Sheehan. He's going to pitch against the Giants for his big league debut on Friday. He's making the leap straight from AA to the big leagues. Dodgers have had a lot of injury issues in that rotation, and Sheehan's been one of the biggest prospect risers of the season. This is a guy that I think was outside of most analysts' top 100 lists and has jumped on some midseason lists into the top 25 range.

He's really just taken off in this organization. Interesting thing I saw in the player outlook for Emmett Sheehan, I was reading his Rotowire player outlook. I love the profiles they do. They used to have that magazine with the big A to Z section. They still write those great player outlooks on all the player pages. Emmitt Sheehan's fastball has an attack angle that is very similar to Joe Ryan's. If you remember, Joe Ryan, when he came into the big leagues, had like a 92, 93-mile-an-hour fastball, and it worked really well

because of its deception. It has that sort of illusion that it's rising. Sheehan throws harder. He's got more of a mid-90s fastball that can touch 99, so it's that pitch plus a changeup as his main pitches that he uses. A lot of success in the AA level so far this season, and really the biggest question is just workload expectations on top of skills, right? Any young pitcher, you look back at the past workloads. We saw 92 and two-thirds innings from Sheehan back in 2021. That was his draft year, including what he did at Boston College. And then we saw 84 combined innings last year

between the minor leagues and the Arizona Fall League. So you start to do the math. You say, he's thrown 53 and a third innings at AA.. If you want to use 92 and two thirds as the previous career high, I have no problem with that. Add 30 or 40 innings, you're in that 120, 130 range, which means 70 to 75 innings today forward is probably the limit for Sheehan going forward. So it's not quite as extreme as Uri Perez in terms of how he might be handled going forward. But there are restrictions in place. And, of course, then there's the other Dodger starters. The path to stay in the rotation requires pitching well because there's a lot of competition and that you have injuries sort of persisting with this group.

Julio Urias, for what it's worth, will need a rehab assignment that could begin very soon. But Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, and Bobby Miller, that's only four starters. I don't think Noah Sindergaard is getting a spot back. So this looks like Sheehan and Michael Grove sort of competing for the fifth starter spot against the other Dodgers prospects that are still waiting for opportunities at double and triple A. Yeah, I didn't expect that the Dodgers would get to Sheehan this year, but here we are. And I definitely could conceive of the situation where he forces Michael Grove back to the minors

or maybe a long relief role. It's just always the question of how does he make the transition? How does any player make the transition from pretty limited time at double A to the majors? And in the Braves organization, they seem to do pretty well with that. But I can't really think of too many similar precedents

in the Dodger organization. But like you said, really great numbers, pretty much replicating what he did at high A last season, now at double A. And I hadn't read or seen that Joe Ryan comp, but I find that really encouraging because I remember when Ryan came up and people were sort of naysaying him and saying,

yeah, he doesn't throw that hard. Those numbers aren't going to translate. And of course, he's been just fine. So you've got a pitcher with a similar attack angle who throws even harder. That's pretty exciting. Yeah, that seems like it can work. And even if this is a two, three, four-week opportunity, Sheehan goes down, maybe comes back later this season, he's good enough, I think, to be interested in him in a lot of leagues. I don't think this is a player you'd want to pass on even in more shallow formats. Pitching has been hard to find everywhere. I think in your deeper, more competitive leagues, you are probably talking about a percentage of fab that is in the double digits, at least 10 to 15%, possibly more, depending on how aggressive your league is.

We've talked about this several weeks in a row. If you spent the money already, you probably can't be as aggressive as someone else can be. That was the problem with Ellie de la Cruz for a lot of people last weekend. It's going to be a problem for Emmett Sheehan for some folks this weekend as well. But this is kind of making me think about Fab a little differently this season and having so many prospects coming up, so many pitching injuries opening the door for guys that we didn't necessarily expect to see this year. I used to have a greater sense of urgency in April and May when prospects would come up because my thought was if they're not up by now,

they're probably not coming up in June or July. Maybe they'll come up in August and September and get that late season taste of the big leagues. But maybe teams are just going to be quicker to, especially with pitching, fill needs internally with prospects as opposed to using some of those more traditional up and down organizational filler type players. I hate using that term, but I can't think of a better way to describe it. Those veterans that get caught between AAA and the big leagues, the 25, 26, 27-year-old guys that just chew up innings, I think teams that have guys like Sheehan increasingly are willing to push those chips in.

Fab is basically fantasy baseball's version of the Monty Hall problem. When do you want to push those chips in? Door number one, the prospects being called up this week. Door number two, the prospects being called up later. We don't know who they are or when they're coming up, but we know they're coming at some point. And then door number three is all the non-prospects who might just be as good or better than some of the prospects that you're looking at today. And those players tend to be a little bit overlooked sometimes. And the reality is any and all those players could be goats, like the lowercase goat.

And then some could be like capital G O A T. So it's such a hard thing to figure out, uh, and in any given year. And I think the landscape of how teams treat players is changing in a way where we probably have to rethink just how aggressive we are with some of the earliest promotions that come at the beginning of the season. Yeah.

Well, and this sort of piggybacks off of the discussion that we had on the last Friday show about how do you deal with fab when you're already depleted? Here we are a week later, and some of us maybe lost a 10 or 20% chunk of our original budget since we had that discussion. And what do you do? And this announcement came after I filed the waiver column this week. So there's no discussion of Sheehan in there. But it probably would have changed the discussion that I did have in there about Christian and Canarsio Strand.

Because my argument there was, well, it seems like the prospect hops are kind of trickling to a halt here. And we don't know when Canarsio and Strand is going to come up, but maybe, you know, now's the time. How much longer can the Reds wait? And now you have to decide,

OK, am I really going to go for it with him or am I going to now reinvest and try to reinforce my pitching with Sheehan? So that's a tough call. I think it, to some degree, has to be needs-based then in terms of who's going to help your roster more. Yeah, I think that's 100% correct.

I think it's also considering how much of a potential upgrade each player you're bidding on really is. Is it a marginal upgrade because you've got good depth? Is it a significant upgrade because you've got major injury problems or clear and obvious players that don't belong on your roster? That might dictate just how aggressive and when you'll be aggressive on prospect promotions in the future. you'll be aggressive on prospect promotions in the future. I mean, that's part of people's analysis already, but I just think you have to be more disciplined than I have been in the past because prospects are coming up seemingly in greater number

and spread out over the entire season, which you also don't want to go to the opposite extreme of always holding your fab because there's nothing to spend it on that's worthwhile in August and September, at least in terms of how much you could have left by not spending early in the season. It's a very fine line to walk, but the landscape is changing. We have another prospect up in San Francisco on the position player side because of the Mitch Hanager injury suffered earlier this week. Luis Matos, we talked about on Project Prospect, got the promotion, already has his first big league hit. I had a chance to talk to Keith Law on the Athletic we've seen during his time in the minor leagues may not translate. He's a very small framed player and their speed, there's a good hit tool,

phenomenal numbers, low strikeout rates at AA and AAA this year. He's going to play center field, kind of a clear area of need for the Giants. There's a ton to like here. And I was surprised that Keith, having seen him and having done this type of work for a long time, was more optimistic power-wise on Matos than I expected. 20 to 25 home runs in the long run is what he could see coming down the road. So you look at that sort of profile for a team that needs a player like that, everyday playing time really could be there as long as he doesn't fall on his face. I'm curious what your interest level is in Matos because I think in terms of what he's going to go for in fab leagues, it's going to be, compared to the Eli De La Cruz bids a week ago, it's going to

be a much smaller number, even if it's still a significant bid to go get him. Yeah. Well, that's an interesting observation by Keith Law because what I had written in the column this week was that, and I didn't allude to his frame, but that certainly was a part of my thinking is, okay, he's put up huge numbers in the PCL, but not really great power numbers elsewhere. And then he's also got this home park that's going to have some sort of squelching effect

on his power numbers. But all he does is make contact. So I feel like the batting average is something that you could definitely count on. There definitely seems to be enough power there that he's not going to be a complete cipher. He's going to make contact, but it's going to be a bunch of soft contact. So I do think the batting average is going to be there. And one thing that I wrote in the analysis is that the Giants are right at the bottom, not the very bottom, but like in the bottom three or four in terms of stolen base attempts. And that worries me too, because that could be a part of his appeal.

But you look at Tyra Estrada and he's certainly helping in that category. So maybe Matos has enough speed that the Giants organization would see fit to allow him to use that aspect of his game. But I do think the stolen bases and the power for me are a bit of a question mark. And that will keep me from bidding more than just a nominal bid in 12-teamers, but definitely go more aggressive, not 10%, but 5%, 6%, 7% in 15-teamers, especially if I need batting average help. I think there's a case for him in down to at least 12-team leagues in the short term. He might be someone who's on the roster,

off the roster in those formats, but there's enough in this profile to like where I think you'd want to go ahead and make that move. Rest of the season projections from the Bat-X have Luis Matos at a 273, 314, 410. I think that's appropriate as far as adjusting power expectations initially. And part of the reason I think there's that long-term projection is because Matos is so young. Not only did he have a hamstring injury last year that may have significantly impacted

his performance at high A, that limited him to 91 games as well. We're talking about a guy who's still just 21 years old, and he won't turn 22 lot as a team, so much of that is personnel for me. I don't think it's an organizational mandate that they don't think stolen bases are worth it. It's that they have so many guys like Jock Peterson and J.D. Davis and Conforto, Hanager, Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, Brandon Crawford. Those are all guys that are mid to late parts of their career for the most part and speed's like the last thing you'd expect from them based on their tools so i think you would see matos get green lights much more like a tyro astrata i think i wouldn't worry about the org slowing him down if he's not stealing bases it's probably because he's not getting on base enough initially to make that part of his

game pop so definitely someone i'm interested in in a lot of leagues this weekend and excited to keep getting more players like this in the profile or with this profile in the pool. Guys that have sub-10% K rates that can actually do some things are very exciting players to be looking for. Some news in Chicago, Northside, Justin Steele coming back from that forearm injury, Al. It's going to come back without a rehab assignment. So if you're in a league where you can activate him this weekend,

you've been waiting on the IL or on your bench and you've got daily moves, are you actually throwing him out there right away? Steele was pitching very well before he got hurt. Kind of goes back to the second half of last year too. But I think I'm a little hesitant without the rehab assignment, knowing that he may not pitch as deep into this start as he was going pre-injury.

Yeah, no, that's a very good point. The matchup is the Orioles, which is sort of a mid-range matchup. So I think maybe if it were, I don't know, the Tigers or somebody on that level, maybe I would take my chances. But I think that if it were, I don't know, the Tigers or somebody on that level, maybe I would take my chances. But I think that's the right move to take a wait-and-see approach,

keep Steele on your bench over the weekend. And if he's between four and five innings, I think you can feel pretty good about him getting that ratcheted up for his next start. And I worry a little bit about the results, too, coming right off of the IL. But I would certainly intend to start him next week, unless it's really a disastrous or very, very short outing. Really nice number so far this season. 265 ERA, 106 whip, and a 58 to 16 strikeout to walk ratio.

Definitely not what I saw coming. But if everything looks stuff-wise like it did before he got hurt, I think he's someone you're going to be using more often than not going forward, especially in this environment. The other Cubs news of the week, Matt Mervis was demoted to AAA Iowa. I think he's mostly, for redraft purposes, only going to be held in NL only leagues. I mean, keeper leagues and dynasty leagues, of course, he's going to be kept in many of those formats because there's still some long-term appeal, but is Mervis someone you're actively trying to target in long-term leagues right now? And what is your interest level in him sort of going forward based on what we saw prior to this demotion?

Well, I will target him if he gets dropped in long-term leagues because I don't see just this initial struggle that he's had in his first call-up as a reason to discount everything that I had hoped for before the season started. He was a player that I actually had been holding in leagues from opening day forward. I targeted him, figured he'd be an earlier call-up actually than he was. And so he's somebody that I will target in dynasty leagues. As far as the 15 teamers where I've been holding him all season long and using him on and off since he's been coming up, that's going to be a tough decision because I do imagine as I look at my bench options now, and you can't just afford to be carrying players all season long that are demoted and or not producing. I'll probably cut him at some point in those 15-team redrafts,

but it's not a given. I may wait a week or two and look for other options because I still think there's going to be some production at some point for Mervis later this season. Yeah, I think after the trade deadline, there's a good chance that things will clear up a little bit on that depth chart. They'll bring him back, let him have a couple of months and see what they have to determine if he's going to be a starter for them in 2024. I think the long-term outlook is still decent because the numbers he put up in the upper levels of the minor leagues, really almost every minor league stop other than his very first taste of A-ball back in 2021,

he's put up impressive numbers everywhere. Maybe he's more of a big-side platoon guy than someone we're going to see as an everyday player, but that still carries a lot of value if he's able to carve that out. So I'm still pretty optimistic long-term, even though things didn't look great. Part of it's that the quality of the contact was there. I mean, that 13.8% barrel rate, that's good.

That's real good. This actually reminds me a little bit of what we saw from Spencer Torkelson as a rookie. I know Spencer Torkelson is a guy that went 1-1 in a draft, had much higher expectations and seemingly a much higher floor, and that might still be true, but even for a guy like Torkelson who was making what looked like good swing decisions last season, the results weren't there. He got that demotion to AAA himself, and maybe, just maybe, he's starting to turn the corner now. I think he's kind of intriguing.

You put him on the sheet today. You put him on the sheet today since May 20th, 247, 381, 441 for the slash line, 15.4% barrel rate. And he's doing something that you're always looking for. When he hits the ball in the air, he's hitting it hard. Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's really impressive what he's doing. I think this is really the longest extended stretch where we've seen him just do a lot of things really well. And that 247 since May 20th, I think he's even gotten a little bit cheated on that.

I don't remember exactly what the expected batting average was, but I think I want to say it was maybe about 20 points higher than that. So, which by the way, with Mervis too, his expected stats were much better than his actual stats. Something to keep in mind there, but it's not only that he's hitting with a little bit more power, but since that cutoff date, May 20th, he's got a 381 on base percent. So his walk rate has just shot right up.

So there's just a lot of good things happening for Torkelson all at the same time. And when you factor in DVR, exactly the thing that you raised, that he was a first overall pick, somebody who came in with all this prospect pedigree, it's a little bit easier to buy into the narrative that, okay, now Torkelson is finally putting it together and putting up some numbers that we probably hoped and expected we would have seen this time last year. Yeah, I think when you take a look at performances to date this season, and then you look at rest of season projections, you'd find that Spencer Torkelson's got one of the more favorable gaps where the projections are still very optimistic. And we've seen some underlying improvement this year in that the barrel rate's a tick higher. He's in the ball in the air more often. Those things are all good. If you look at the Tigers as a team, Spencer Torkelson actually has the best projected WRC plus of the entire roster for the rest of the season at 122. That's with a 255, 333, 466 projection going forward. So that'd be better than what he's done so far. Not quite as good as what he's done in this recent stretch, but things do seem to be going in the right direction for him. So I think if you're in a shallow league, you're looking for some help on the corner, Torkelson could actually be a good solution. I don't know if there's a lot of deep leagues where he's available, but he might be playing his way into some of those more shallow formats. the selection for this week's installment of injured pitcher injured a pitcher you should

try to stash where available three scoreless innings five strikeouts at triple-a toledo on thursday only through 31 pitches in that game which makes you think there could be possibly two more rehab starts but at least one more seems likely before a possible activation and if that happens you know like a week from saturday a week from Sunday, if we see him back in the Tigers rotation, that first start back could be one with some kind of pitch count. But I think the important thing with Scooble compared to some of the prospects we've talked about in recent weeks, there probably won't be a season innings cap workload concern for him at all. Once he's back, he just goes every fifth day and pitches as deep into games as he can based on how well he's pitching. And that's pretty exciting. So I think I'm definitely trying to stash him now.

I think if you did it a week ago, you were further ahead of the curve and you probably saved precious fab dollars in leagues where those are used. But I think Scooble has shown enough ability to make adjustments during his time in the big leagues where I'm pretty excited about what he might bring to the table over the course of the second half of the season. Yeah. And he's close enough now that I think that it makes sense if you didn't, like you say, do it a week ago. Now is a good time to do it because as he gets closer, probably, I don't think he'll be back this week, but next week, you know, he'll be much closer. Then there's going to be more anticipation, probably more aggressive bidding on Scooble. But it week, he'll be much closer. Then there's going to be more anticipation, probably more aggressive bidding on Scooble. But it's easier said than done to do the thing that you suggested,

which is get a couple weeks or more out ahead of it. Because I had Scooble and Maki, and I dropped him because of wanting to pick up some other players. And it wasn't an easy decision to make. But thinking about this time, I'd go out and try to pick up some other players, and it wasn't an easy decision to make. But thinking about this time, I'd go out and try to pick him back up. Now, I understand that Maki's a special situation that he has to already be off the IL, but just the idea that you have to really watch

the situation carefully. So in a league where you can stash him, I do think that this weekend is the time where you can do it and be able to also dedicate some dollars to Matos and Chien and some of the other players that we've talked about who might command a little bit more. and that was a big time adjustment for him. Good results on that pitch overall. He can get some whiffs with it. Opposing hitters didn't do a lot of damage against it.

Still has pretty good velo on his fastball as well. Works in the changeup, works in the curve. I like the guys that can not only miss bats, but have multiple paths to do it. And Scooble seems like one of those players. So I'm excited to see him coming back here in the near future. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. So I'm excited to see him coming back here in the near future. instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton bike or bike plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access membership separate. Terms apply.

Want visibly glowing skin in 14 days? With new Olay Indulgent Moisture Body Wash, you can lather and glow. The 24-hour moisturizing body wash is infused with vitamin B3 complex and has notes of rose and cherry creme for a rich indulgent experience. Treat your senses with new Olay Indulgent Moisture Body Wash. Buy it today at major retailers. We did see some angels infield injuries. My goodness, I think it was within hours of me suggesting that the Angels might be real this year. The team looks a lot better.

They were built with better depth this time around. They're playing well right now. Everything seems like it's falling into place. A bunch of stuff all broke all at once around the infield. Neto got placed on the aisle with an oblique strain. Usually those can be three to four week injuries. So we'll see if he's able to get back maybe at the shorter end of that timetable. All of this is to say, I think Luis Renjifo is going to play a ton because Anthony Rendon is banged up and Renjifo sort of that first infielder up anyway.

So with multiple injuries, he was already playing a lot as it was. Now he's probably an everyday guy and he's the winner in all this. But it's really a bummer because Neto seemed like he was starting to as it was. Now he's probably an everyday guy and he's the winner in all this. But it's really a bummer because Neto seemed like he was starting to put it together. And he wasn't even like a bad player upon arrival. He was just kind of underwhelming for shallow and mid-sized fantasy leagues because he was mostly in the bottom of the order, kind of an empty batting average sort of contributor initially. But the last couple of weeks, last 14 days specifically, contributor initially, but the last couple of weeks, last 14 days specifically, 333, 424, 741, three homers, a couple steals, picking up some runs in RBIs, of course, being a part of that Angels lineup. I think this is a player who's done a lot in a very brief time to really give

us an idea that he's likely a top 12, top 15 shortstop as we start thinking about rest of season rankings once he's healthy and start putting an eye even towards 2024. Yeah, and it's a deep shortstop pool. So, yeah, he was sort of overlooked. But like you said, recently really forcing us to notice him more. So it's definitely bad, bad timing there. It is a situation where Ranjifo should play more. Bad timing there.

It is a situation where Ranjifo should play more. Andrew Velasquez started for the Angels on Thursday. And this is obviously more of a deep league, AL only, deep mixed league thing. But Velasquez did steal 17 bases last year. So if there's any sort of regular playing time for him, which there very well could be, that's just something to consider if you're looking for cheap steals. Yeah, that's a good point. Deep, deep leagues, but for sure, someone that can offer a little something in that category with all the injuries.

I think Gio Urshela's banged up for the Angels right now too. So the very scenario they were trying to play against still unfolded on them in the matter of like a day. Yohan Mankata goes back on the IL. It's the back that's still giving him issues. Generally, Al, I make an assumption if you go on the IL with any sort of injury and you go back on the IL with that injury again,

that your second stint will almost certainly be longer than your first stint because the first stint didn't get you back to 100% or close enough to 100% to avoid further issues. And with Mankata, I think I'm more willing than ever, even in deep leagues, to just say he's not himself. He is not the guy that we saw a few years ago. This is a very different player than we thought he would be at his peak.

And even now we're starting to wonder, is the playing time when he comes back going to be max volume playing time? Part of what made Mankata a deep league fallback option for me at third base on the corner was thinking that he's going to play every day. He's a good enough defender. He gets on base. Even if he's not providing power, the White Sox want to keep playing him. But everything just seems like it's missing skills-wise right now. Maybe it's just the injury injury and we could be talking about him as a heavily discounted bounce-back candidate for really deep leagues in 2024, but this feels

like a pretty ominous IL move and it seems like a path for Jake Berger to start doing what Jake Berger does best, just mashing homers. Yeah, and for me, that's really one of the more, maybe the most interesting angle from a fantasy perspective about all this, because those of us who picked up Berger when he was getting regular play and then when there wasn't room for him, it was a real question of what do you do? Because if there's a new opportunity, you don't just want to let him loose. I think there's a lot to the perspective that you have about looking at these repeat injuries and IL stints. On MLB.com, on the White Sox injury news page, every team, you know, they've got their injury updates page. And it says that the expected time for Moncada's return is two weeks. So I don't know how seriously you take that. But I mean, at least if you look at that as a possibility, that's got at least a decent probability.

It's a real conundrum. So at least in the short term, you figure Berger's going to get that playing time. But I don't know. It just seems like by now the White Sox would have figured out some way for Berger to have a little bit more job security. And I think we're going to have to wait at least a couple more weeks to get more clarity on that picture. And with Berger, I think we're seeing a pretty odd slash line because most guys that hit the ball as hard as he does tend to walk more than he does. And right now we're talking about a player who,

you know, 400 plate appearances into his career has a 5.% walk rate, and he's striking out 32.2% of the time, but he's giving me that power a lot. 18% career barrel rate, 22.2% this year. He's hitting the ball hard enough to deal with the flaws. This looks worse than it did a few weeks ago when I was really excited about him. I still like him. Projections are still pretty optimistic about Jake Berger and now his main impediment to playing time has been removed. So I think he's a weird slash line award winner at 248, 296, 606. A lot of times the 240, 290 is followed by like a 440 for a guy that has a little bit of power, not a 600. So I wonder if with more regular opportunities to play, if the K rate can come down to the high twenties, low 30% range,

maybe the walk rate goes up a little bit as well. Like part of, part of the, this got a little worse was the inconsistency with playing time in recent weeks. Yeah. I mean, we certainly,

those of us who have burger are really hoping for that to happen. And yet I still wonder if that will be enough whenever Moncada comes back. So, I mean, like I mean, we certainly, those of us who have Berger, are really hoping for that to happen, and yet I still wonder if that will be enough whenever Munkata comes back. So, I mean, like I say, I'll be happy to start him now. If anybody dropped him, I will be on him on the waiver wire, but I do think we may need another couple weeks at least to see what the longer-term picture is going to be. Let's move on to a few other bats to consider.

Nolan Jones playing really well with this opportunity in Colorado, immediately raising the question, why wasn't he up sooner? Why did you sign Jerickson Profar? The same questions I've been asking all season. Are you buying into Nolan Jones as someone who has more value than just being more of a deep mixed league player? Do you see him as someone that is shadow league relevant, least for streaming purposes when the rockies are playing series at home uh i i am i mean i i'm definitely buying in too late for um where i feel really certain that he's he's got some value uh because he's he's got pretty high roster rates and he's really uh you know paid off uh on the the faith of the fancy managers who got him when he first came up.

And the thing that I didn't foresee was that he would offset the high strikeout rate, which he does have. He's striking out in one third of his plate appearances so far. And you figure he's going to get a Babbitt bump from playing home games in Coors Field. He's got a Babbitt now that's edging up about 500. So yes, I think there's some regression coming, but maybe not so much that he shouldn't be close to universally rostered. And that's something a couple of weeks ago I would have thought would have been utterly ridiculous. And part of too what has me buying in on Jones at that level is he's already stolen four bases. So that's a part of the mix I didn't really expect from him. So I think he's one of these players that when we were talking about back in March, who's going to benefit from these new rules and who might have been somebody who would have stolen six or seven bases before. Maybe he's going to steal 15 or 20. I think maybe Nolan Jones is one of the answers to that question. question. Yeah, I think being in Colorado does give you that average bump. Instead of being a possible liability in the category, he might actually be more of an asset. And if he's not necessarily good in average, he probably won't be horrible if he can hold the current plate skills.

The thing that I thought was interesting about Nolan Jones back during the winter was that the little bits we did see him in Cleveland pointed to a player with plenty of tools. It was 80th percentile max exit velocity last season, 69th percentile sprint speed, which is more than I expected. I just thought he was more of a plotter than he actually is. And 100th percentile arm strength. That's a pretty toolsy player. I thought it was strange that the Guardians gave up on him as quickly as they did, given their need for power. But maybe they saw some flaws they feel like they couldn't correct.

They got an interesting young shortstop back, Juan Brito, who's doing really well in the minors. So, you know, good for them. If you get the better long-term player, I guess that matters. But more importantly for Nolan Jones right now, that sprint speed is actually up a little bit, 77th percentile. So this could be something that continues. This Colorado lineup that needs to find different ways to manufacture runs. I think they're going to keep playing him as much as they've been playing him. So I wonder if it eventually costs someone else.

We were relying on some plate appearances, but I'm with you. I think at least short term, he's someone you can start to slot in for some of those more shallow formats. And I didn't expect that to be the case either, even though I thought there was some kind of mid-range league appeal with Jones. I was just wrong about how long it was going to take for him to actually find a role in Colorado. You pointed out on the rundown, Matt McClain has a nice barrel rate so far, 11.6%, which I think if you said when Matt McClain came up, which skill, which tool are you most concerned about initially? I think we said it was power, but we thought

the ballpark might cover it. If he's going to hit the barrel rate in the double-digit, low-double-digit range, it's not going to matter. The power is going to play pretty much everywhere. He is striking out about as much as he did at AA last year. He's not walking as much as he did in the minor leagues,

but this is a guy that's going through his first run of big league pitching. He's only 28 games into his career. So I think that this point it's a similar question. We were just talking about Nolan Jones, like is Matt McLean playing well enough and showing enough skills where for the more shallow formats where he may have previously been unrostered, should he be universally rostered? Oddly enough, I mean, McLean, the player that I was much more interested in

when he got called up and had this clear access to everyday playing time, I have maybe more doubts about him now that I have about Nolan Jones because, you know, whereas Jones, we figured he probably would strike out a lot. You know, that was a concern. I wasn't that concerned about that with McLean, but like you mentioned, the strikeout rate is up. The walk rate is way, way down. He's kind of papering over that

by hitting a lot of line drives, which is not necessarily something that he did a lot before. And then the one thing that I figured we would get from him are steals. And he's had just two stolen bases in his first 132 plate appearances. So that's definitely behind the paces that he set in the minor leagues. So I'm unsure about whether or not he's really going to be able to maintain

the batting average. I don't know if the steals are ever really going to come. So long-term I like, like McLean a lot. I do like the power, which is the point that you started out making, right? Decent power in the minors that's really holding up at the major league level. And then he's got that great home park. So I think we could maybe see more to come in that category.

But the overall picture, I would expect that we will see some regression. overall picture, I would expect that we will see some regression. We've been wondering all season if the A's would continue to find useful fantasy bats for us, at least, just because there was so much playing time available. Jace Peterson made the rundown today, and I don't know if I can make a case for him outside of being a good roster glue in a 15-team mixed league if you just need someone who will play and you need contingency bid options, someone who can do a little bit of everything. I think that's something Jace Peterson's done pretty well

for the last few seasons, working more as a bench player in Milwaukee for the last three years. Kind of a low average, some power, some speed, pretty efficient base stealer. Each of the last three seasons, he's only been caught one time while racking up double-digit steals.

He's about to do it again for the third time this year. He's nine for 10. Is there anything different in the profile with Peterson, or is this just more of the same and a guy that you can use the way I described where he's a better feeling than people are giving him credit for because of that speed?

Yeah, I think it's exactly the way that you framed a DVR. I put him on the rundown not because I think that people need to add him all over the place, but this is the sort of player that I think is useful when you're talking about running low on fab and you need to fill a particular spot or maybe in a particular category. And in Peterson's case, I think his main appeal is those stolen bases. He's getting a lot of playing time with Oakland and he got off to a terrible start. And so with this hot streak that he's on right now, that's kind of brought his overall stat line to the very place where you figured it would have been all along. So because he got off to the slow start, I'm sure he's out there in a lot of 15-team leagues. So if you do need the stolen bases or maybe a little bit of run production, I think that he can be that sort of glue guy for your roster until maybe you get somebody injured back from off of your I.L. slot or somebody better comes along. But in the meantime, he can fill some needs with probably a very minimal bid.

Yeah, I think that's a good way to look at Jace Peterson at this point in time. Let's move on to some pitchers. You wanted to talk about A.J. Smith-Shauver, someone who has made a couple of starts now after beginning his big league career in the bullpen. We're starting to see a few more whiffs that last time out against Colorado. So what are your impressions of Smith-Shavar seeing him more stretched out now against the big league hitters? Well,

I'm sort of disappointed actually, because I picked him up in a 12 teamer figuring, okay, maybe we'll, you know, wait through a week or two and, and he'll ultimately be pretty useful, but I just couldn't

start them for this, uh, this last start at home against the Rockies, which I think is maybe the best matchup you can ask for. And it's right up there with, uh, you know, facing Oakland or Detroit and it went fine. He lasted five and two thirds. He did get those six strikeouts, uh, got more whiffs in this one, but it's like, if you can't put up those kinds of numbers with that matchup, I'm not sure what, when you can. And his first start was at home against the Nationals, also pretty, pretty favorable matchup and didn't get very many swinging strikes in that one. And, you know, didn't give up any or any earned runs in that start. So the result was good, didn't give up any or any earned runs in that start.

So the result was good, but the underlying metrics behind it were sort of underwhelming. So I think it's another week of me kind of waiting and seeing with AJ Smith Shover and seeing if he can continue to put up the types of numbers that he put up against the Rockies. But I think if we're in the same place a couple of weeks from now, I might have to drop them. Interesting for shallow leagues, of course. You're 12 and less. Yeah.

It's hard because I think with a good team especially, your win probability just goes up so much that you feel like you're giving something up. The next start for him is coming up on Wednesday. It's on the road against the Phillies. I imagine you're looking very closely at your alternatives and probably putting him on the bench for that. But there is a possibility of a two-start week

the week after with a home start against the Twins and a home start against the Marlins. So if he sticks on your roster in those shallow leagues, I imagine it's because you're trying to squeeze in that two-step and get some max volume from him after this upcoming week. Yeah, I think in that 12-team league that I'm talking about, I think it's a really pivotal week because, yeah,

if he can do well at Philadelphia, it's certainly the most challenging matchup he'll have had so far, tough park. So I think if he does well there, I'd feel okay about him making that two-step. And if he doesn't do well, then I really have to beg the question of when am I going to be able to start him? Is it worth using up the roster spot? So yeah, that's going to be a very, very important test. Yeah. Looking at the called strikes and whiffs, the CSW percentage, 27.7% so far for Smith-Shavar. Starters league-wide averaged 27.4. So kind of like where he should

be given his age. I mean, that's encouraging, but it doesn't seem like his fastball is nearly as effective so far against big league hitters as it was during his time in the minors. So that's going to be kind of an interesting thing to watch with him going forward. Spencer Strider has fallen on some rough times recently, and my takeaway is there's really nothing actionable right now. Two road starts await. I wouldn't sit him for a two-step. I think he'd have to struggle for four or five more starts before we'd even consider

actually putting him on the bench. This just seems like a still young pitcher going through a bit of an adjustment phase. I mean, maybe there's a little bit of a command issue right now. Maybe hitters have found something that he's tipping. I mean, we know there's a lot going on where this was happening with Grayson Rodriguez. Enos talked about this on the pod, using Hawkeye, finding different things with the limb technology that are leading to hitters getting a better read on pitchers. Maybe something like that's in play. I'm speculating wildly right now because Strider was so electric with the two-pitch mix he had last season and even to begin this season that I think it'd be silly to completely abandon him as a top 10,

top five even starter just based on a little run where he hasn't quite been himself. Yeah. I even think there's a potential buy low opportunity here. Everything in the profile looks pretty much the same, except he's just giving up a ton of home runs, 10 in his last 32 innings, which is obviously a ghastly ratio. He's got a 6.47 ERA over that span. That's six starts. But if you do look at the ERA estimators, they're still looking at Strider even with all those home runs as like a mid to upper three ERAs guy. So that's not what you bargained for when you drafted him. But if that's Strider at his worst is just below a sub four ERA pitcher, I think you'll take that.

Yeah, I think so too. Yeah. As far as being able to get someone to flip them, I don't think that's a tough sell. Even still, I think it'd be an uphill battle, but it's at least possible. I think a month ago, it would have been impossible to get someone to trade you Spencer Strider in most circumstances. Sean Minaya, not being used like a starter, but being used very effectively. Given all the conversations we've had this year about the difficulty of finding good starting pitching, is a bulk reliever, someone who goes behind a follower, someone who works in tandem, sometimes a Jake Junis. Is this absolutely fine as far as your deeper leagues as you try and

round out a pitching staff on any given week? I think in Minaya's case, maybe it's the best thing. I think the negative with how he's being used is it's not often that he's being used immediately after the opener. It's the third pitcher in. So I think that that probably minimizes his chances for picking up a win. But there's something to be said if there's maybe if he's feeling less pressure or it's just a better situation for him to be beginning a stint in the third or the fourth inning and he's putting up the numbers that he's put up the last few weeks. I'd rather take that than have him starting, maybe going a little bit deeper and overall having, having worse numbers. And you could still, you could still probably vulture some wins this way. So I'm interested to see,

I saw a piece yesterday where Gabe Kapler said that Mania's pitched so well, maybe he'll go back in the rotation. I was sort of like, no, no, don't. It's not a good thing. It'll be interesting to watch. And I think even if he does go back in the rotation, there's just been such a stark improvement in his results that I'm hopeful that that will translate even if there's a change in role. For me, it's kind of like if they use him as a traditional starter or just let him start games, I think the way they've used him recently is a pretty good indication that we're not going to see him go six or seven innings very often, if at all. It's going to be a lot of four-inning starts and five-inning starts where if he's pitching well, he'll get a little deeper. If he's not, they're going to be quick to go to someone else, just kind of flipping the order around, trying to get matchups set up the way that they want them. So it works in deeper leagues.

It's very hard to use players like this in a shallow league, even when the performance is as good as it's been for Shaman. Maybe some sparky goodness in some instances is kind of the way you could use him in those other formats. So let's be clear. When it comes to shipping internationally, can I provide trade documents electronically? Mm-hmm. The answer is FedEx.

Okay. But what about estimating duties and taxes on my shipments? How do I find all the... Also FedEx. Impressive. Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about? FedEx. Oh. But let's say that... FedEx. What a... FedEx.

Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx, where now meets next. You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you. The Canadian Armed Forces.

A message from the Government of Canada. Let's get to a few two-star pitchers and streamers. And I wanted to bring up Ryan Nelson again, a frequently discussed pitcher, because it seems like he's one or two more bad starts away from possibly getting sent down or getting moved to the bullpen if they don't make an adjustment to their rotation. Ryan Nelson has a two-start week coming up. He's actually available in some of my deeper leagues still. Both starts come on the road at Milwaukee and at San Francisco.

Part of this for me, Al, the Brewers' offense is just bad. I am not afraid of throwing even below-average big, big starters against Milwaukee right now. A little more concerned trying to mess with the Giants, given how well they mix and match and game plan. But I think Ryan Nelson's two-step is a budget two-step that I would actually consider because I think the Brewers have become a team that you want to seek out for streaming in two steps. I'm with you there. And so I was sort of disappointed because I saw those matchups and thought, okay, maybe this is finally the time to go target Ryan Nelson. And I just could not find anything that really inspired any confidence in me to use him with what I agree. I think that's a great term, a bargain two-step, good matchups. Now, Aaron

Savali's got the even better version of it at home against Oakland, and then he's got the Brewers at home, but Savali's much more widely rostered. So as much as I've got some questions about what's in Savali's profile, I feel much more comfortable starting him than I would Ryan Nelson. So yeah, that's not a good vote of confidence when you don't feel good about using Nelson with those matchups. It's not a good vote of confidence when you don't feel good about using Nelson with those matchups. Yeah, I don't love it, but I actually would do it in 15-team leagues and deeper and quickly plan on replacing him next weekend if I actually do pick him up for the two-step. We talked about Cutter Crawford last week.

Knowing that there was a good chance his start against the Rockies wasn't going to be five-plus innings, he's still kind of stretching out. Are you still optimistic about him, especially with a two-start week on tap? Both Crawford and Garrett Whitlock have the Twins and the White Sox both on the road for this upcoming week. I am optimistic about Crawford for all the reasons that we talked about last week. Just really good peripherals. But that start against the Rockies didn't go well. It's a little puzzling.

I didn't go deep into it. Didn't get good results. So going into this week, if Crawford is out there, the only situation where I would think about targeting him is if it's a league where I have the bench space to, to, to stash him,

because I don't think I would start him, even though these matchups are not really tough matchups road starts against the twins and the White Sox. But Whitlock, if you can get him, even in 12-teamers, I feel just fine about Whitlock. He's got good peripherals as well and going much, much deeper into games at this point. So of those two, there's no question that Whitlock is the better option if you can have it. Yeah, I think Whitlock is pretty easily someone you should be picking up in your shallow leagues where he's still available. I think he has the skills to stick all season long in those spots.

Crawford is, to me, maybe a person I'd have on a list with Ryan Nelson and probably ahead of Ryan Nelson, but I think Crawford's less available than Ryan Nelson in those deeper leagues, so you have to be mindful of that. Ranger Suarez probably pushing his way back onto the shallow league radar if he hasn't done that already, but some pretty tough matchups with Atlanta at home and then the Mets at home. Mets, Sands, Pete Alonso, maybe a little less scary,

but I'm curious what you're doing in leagues where you've got Ranger Suarez and a two-step where that first start is particularly tough one. I'd feel okay about using Suarez in a 12-teamer this week. And he is available out there in 12-teamers, at least some of them. So it's a week that, I mean, you're probably starting to get the picture. It's a really dreadful week for streaming pitchers. It's bad. It's kind of hold your nose with Suarez for that brave start at home, which really does scare me, or hold your nose for Savali even with two good starts.

I think they're two of your better options. Michael Lorenzen, who we've talked about within the last couple of weeks, has gotten kind of hammered his last couple of times out. So even with pretty decent matchups, I would definitely feel much better about using Suarez or Savali than Lorenzen. Yeah, I think Savali would be even higher than the others we've talked about so far. I think some people are going to be interested in Josiah Greggs throwing a new sweeper home against the Cardinals, road against the Padres, no cakewalks there. I think the Cardinals' problems are not their lineup. It's the starting pitching.

It's been the starting pitching all season. So I think you're taking a little bit of risk there. And you know with the Nationals, they're also not playing well right now that you've got a low win probability anyway. So that one to me, Josiah Gray sort of depends a little more on how much damage you are willing to potentially take on, even though he seems to be doing a lot to try and find different ways to get hitters out. I like seeing that. So I think he's one of those guys that you don't want to write him off completely if you've been ignoring him in more shallow leagues

because the tweaks he's making could actually make him a lot more effective and eventually lead him to spots where you do feel good about using him later on this season. The Pirates have Osvaldo Bito and Johan Oviedo going up against the Cubs and the Marlins. That seems pretty good. I think with Beto, I see more of what I described earlier, that sort of organizational guy that, yeah, he misses a lot of bats,

but the results are never that good. So he's a little more of an NL-only league desperation volume play. But Oviedo keeps showing us little glimpses of maybe unlocking something. And I think this is a week where I'd be pushing Oviedo into those same sort of bids where I'm thinking about Ryan Nelson. I'm probably putting Oviedo just one notch ahead of him. Yeah, that's exactly where I've got him too.

So I had bigger hopes for Oviedo back in March and then he started off really well. A little bit of maybe confirmation bias there with those early starts. Hasn't gone so well for him deeper into the season. Those are pretty nice matchups on the whole. So yeah, I put him in the Ryan Nelson bucket of could do something with those matchups,

but a lot of question marks and maybe just put him a hair above Nelson. Some individual start guys. Well, actually one more two-step. Daniel Lynch is the one that I think by name, you keep wondering like, is he figuring it out? Is there something here that we should be excited about? Last three starts, trending in the right direction. At Detroit, lovely. At Tampa Bay, okay, that's tough. Deep leagues only, I think,

would be the approach there. Jordan Lyles has the same matchups. I wouldn't throw Jordan Lyles out there in an AL only league with those two matchups, Just to give you an idea, if you can split them and just take the Tiger one, maybe in an AL only league, I would throw Jordan Lyles against the Tigers. That's about it. Yeah, I wouldn't even do that. And Lyles was a guy that it seemed like we talked about a lot in 2022 as, you know, somebody maybe in this kind of week you would take a chance with, but absolutely not. But I think Lynch is interesting because the first three starts were all pretty solid,

really encouraging. And then he just got absolutely hammered by the Reds in his most recent start. But he's getting so many whiffs on the changeup, like a really dramatic increase from last year or so. Makes me wonder if maybe that for some reason that Reds start was a little bit of an aberration. But I think that, yeah, if it was detroit and then something not quite as bad as at the rays i i might take a chance on lynch this week but uh instead i think i'll sit back and watch yeah a lot of the single start options you might stream in some leagues stand out as better plays than the two-start guys we've

talked about braxton garrett i know you like Garrett quite a bit. Home against the Pirates, available in almost 40% of CBS leagues. That should at least temporarily be a number that goes up for that matchup. Ben Lively and Andrew Abbott against the Rockies. Even with the underlying numbers for Abbott in these first two starts are concerning mostly because of the walk rate. He's had some issues with walks. I think I'd still trust Abbott enough to play him against the walk rate. He said some issues with walks. I think I'd still trust Abbott enough to play him against the Rockies. Lively is still more of a mystery to me.

I'm trying to be cautious about using him, especially at Great American Ballpark. Yanni Chirinos against the Royals. I think this is a spot where even a low strikeout starter could actually come through with a few extra Ks, so I'd be okay with that in some deeper leagues. Louis Varland. I saw this exchange on Twitter, and I apologize for not remembering who was having it. It's just one of those things that showed up in the For You tab. Thank you, Twitter, for that gift that just keeps on giving mostly garbage. This was one of the rare times where it came through for me.

Louis Varland, we liked him on this show because the stuff numbers are good. And then when you watch him, the velocity, the movement, everything looks good with Varland. He's had a pretty tough schedule. And that was something that was going back and forth in that conversation was that maybe part of the reason he hasn't been great so far is that he drew some tough matchups. The skills are solid. 22.9% K rate, 6.4% walk rate, 12.2% swinging strike rate. Those are all good. Homers have been the problem. Over two homers per nine. 470 ERA, 126 whip for the results, almost a strikeout per inning. This is generally a pitcher you would believe in because you'd say, okay, the home run rate, even if he has a home

run problem, won't be that high going forward. So the ratios will come down to the lower mid-fours. Whip's not bad. K's are there. If the matchup is good and the win probability's high, thumbs up. That's where I'm at on Louis Varland, especially against the Tigers. And just to shed some light on how difficult that schedule was, the last five outings for Varland at Toronto, at Tampa Bay, at Houston before Yaron Alvarez got hurt, home against the Blue Jays, and at the Angels, which when they're healthy, isn't a

picnic either. So that's a pretty tough run of schedule for anyone to go through. And six home runs in those five starts have been a part of why those results haven't been as good as we'd hoped. Yeah. Yeah. The underlying numbers that you mentioned really encouraging and now he's got a really great matchup. So while I preface this whole section by saying it's kind of a brutal week to stream pitchers, Varland, he's not really out there in 15 teamers, but I would be okay with using him in a 12 teamer this week and I might just give him what the other options are. Yeah, I think the other interesting matchups, I mean, you've got the A's going up against Cleveland on the road, so Paul Blackburn might be useful in some deeper leagues. J.P. Sears in even more shallow formats, I think, has been

pitching well enough to be used in a matchup like this. It's trying to decide what to do with Matthew Boyd and Reese Olsen with home starts against the Royals. With Reese Olsen, this week he had a pretty tough two-step, so if you had him on your roster, you were probably looking really carefully at your alternatives. I played him in a couple of places. Step one did not go particularly well, hoping step two goes a little bit better. I think even if step two doesn't go well this week, I would probably give Reese Olsen another shot, at least in deeper leagues going up against the Royals offense that's just been putrid this year. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. They've actually fallen behind the A's in terms of winning percentage. Brutal. Yeah. Which is absolutely

brutal. So I kind of wasn't appreciating how bad the Royals have been this year and now they don't have Vinny Pasquantino. So that's a really nice matchup. I think I'd be okay with Boyd in that one. And oddly enough, Olsen, who I really was excited about, I think I would maybe do a wait and see with Olsen on that, but I think I'd be okay with Boyd. I think I'm almost at the point with Olsen where it's like, if you like him enough to keep him in a redraft league for this week, then you almost have to start him. I know those weird conditions are not necessary, but it's sort of like a conviction play. It's like, no, I like him enough to keep him,

and if I can't use him in a single start against the Royals, what am I clinging to? What am I actually keeping on my roster? So that's the way I would think about Ree Reese Olsen in leagues where I've got him. And I think better days are ahead. I think he's going to miss some bats and ultimately be a useful back-end starter for us in most leagues. Wade Miley also coming back. So pretty interesting matchups for him as well.

So keep an eye out for how he does this weekend against Pittsburgh to get an idea of how stretched out he is and everything looks the way it's supposed to look for him in terms of his arsenal. A couple notes on closers before we go. Liam Hendricks had a cortisone injection and a PRP injection in his elbow. So it will probably be a few weeks, if not longer, before he's ready to return from the IL for the White Sox. if not longer, before he's ready to return from the IL for the White Sox, which leads us to say Kendall Graveman might be a pretty good pickup here for some saves, at least for the next four to six weeks. Kendall Graveman makes sense as an upgrade for contending teams' bullpens, so it may be short-lived, but if you're chasing saves this weekend,

he might be one of the best options available. Yeah, I think he's the best option available in terms of leagues where maybe just about everybody who's getting a large share of saves is pretty much rostered. So I think Grieveman's the best option there. I should have looked at this. I don't think I did DVR, but I think that he might actually be more rostered than the Rockies' closer Lawrence. So I think between the two of them, I think I'd actually rather have Lawrence. Oh, I'd take Graveman for sure. Easily.

If Justin Lawrence gets out of Colorado, I'm in. But I don't want anything to do with him in Colorado. Well, my bigger concern with Justin Lawrence is not even like the ERA or pitching in cores. It's just the lack of save opportunities. Yeah. Because I actually think that he does a good enough job of keeping the ball down even in cores that he'll be effective when he gets a chance. He just might not get that many chances. Here's the question for you about a former Rocky.

Carlos Estevez has been great so far this season, had a really rough outing Thursday in Texas, didn't record any outs, loaded the bases, so actually did a little damage to the ratios. I think he added 0.1 to his whip just in one outing, but he's been really good so far this year. You've seen some changes in the underlying numbers recently that may point to some trouble. Yeah, and they're not huge changes. He's not been getting out of his own chases pretty much all season long, but that's just an issue that's been exacerbated over the last few weeks. And then that's combined with a whiff rate that's notably down in his recent appearances. So it's just not a good combination. And I think probably the biggest thing that would keep me from speculating on

that angels bullpen is that I just don't really see other good alternatives. I think they'll, they'll, uh, ride it out with, with, uh, Steves,

uh, unless it just, you know, it gets, gets worse than, than what it's been lately. Yeah. I don't know if I see anyone who jumps off the page as the next best option

right now, either, you know, Ben Joyce got hurt. He, Don't know if I see anyone who jumps off the page as the next best option right now either. You know, Ben Joyce got hurt. He wasn't necessarily knocking on the door for highest leverage opportunities yet anyway. So there's that. You know, you look at some of the names they got out there. Chris Davinsky, I don't know. I think it's more of a, this is a Stevis's job to lose.

It's a bullpen worth watching to see who's getting the ball in front of him consistently in these next couple of games. But unless we see another meltdown or possibly two between now and Sunday night, I don't think I'm speculating in this bullpen if I'm trying to find future saves, at least for now. It's more of a yellow light as opposed to a red light where you're definitely chasing someone else in that pen. And then the other news of the week from the Tampa Bay Rays, Pete Fairbanks is back. I saw the clip going around on Twitter that he has a black eye. He was at a hip injury that put him on the IL. Apparently he was in a swimming pool with his kid, his three-year-old son, dunked over his kid on one of those basketball hoops, like a little tight hoop or something,

but pulled it onto his own face. So in his own words, taught his son a lesson about how to defend in the paint, but then also smashed himself in the face with a basketball hoop. So Pete Fairbanks, hip feeling good, face feeling a little bruised. Yeah. But back in the bullpen. So right up there, I think with Graveman is somebody you can target. I don't know how many people would necessarily drop Fairbanks. I mean, it was looking like that was going to be a short-term hiatus for him anyway. So, but if he's out there, certainly in leagues where, again, you're not going to be getting somebody with a primary closer designation, Fairbanks is about as good as it gets.

Yeah. I think for me, I wanted to bring it up as much to say if you've been relying on Jason Adam for some temporary saves again, he'll still probably be part of a committee. Right. You may just want to reevaluate that based on Fairbanks being healthy again. So a lot to think about this weekend, and we hope everyone has a good time going through the wire, getting their bids in. Nice to have a couple prospects out there again this week. On our way out the door, a reminder, you can get a subscription to The Athletic for $2 a month for the first year at theathletic.com. Slash rates and barrels. Be sure to check out Al's weekly waiver column. That is up on the site.

We've got pitching rankings from Eno that went up a couple weeks ago. You can dig into those. Lots of great stuff all around the major sports. So a good time of year to be a sports fan. You've got off-seasons getting underway in the NHL and the NBA. You've got football just around the corner, baseball, heart of the season. So a lot of good stuff up there at theathletic.com

slash ratesandbarrels. On Twitter, you can find Al at almelcurebb. You can find me at Derek Van Ryper. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you next week