Rates & Barrels - Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers, Jung Hoo Lee to the Giants & A More Crowded Reds Infield?

Episode Date: December 18, 2023

Eno and DVR discuss the four-player trade that sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers, the subsequent four-year extension that Glasnow signed after the deal, expectations for Jung Hoo Lee in San Francisco, the surprising addition of Jeimer Candelario to the Reds' infield, and a few other recent moves including the D-backs' addition of Eduardo Rodríguez.  Rundown 1:04 Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers 7:53 Buying Ryan Pepiot's 2023 Skills Growth? 12:34 Rays' Rotation: Would You Rather? 17:10 Waiting on Walker Buehler This Draft Season? 21:47 Jung Hoo Lee's Outlook with Giants 29:43 Eduardo Rodríguez: Lands with Arizona 35:18 Jeimer Candelario to the Reds?! 44:57 Elly De La Cruz's Second-Round ADP, Are You In? 52:19 Weighing Early Pitchers v. Bats 55:47 Seth Lugo & Michael Wacha to the Royals Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow The Show on Twitter: @RatesAndBarrels e-mail: [e-mail] Check out our YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/c/ratesbarrels Give the gift of The Athletic this Holiday Season! One-year gift subscriptions are just $19.99 at theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Monday, December 18th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. We hope you enjoyed the Working in Baseball series that went up last week in place of the usual pods. It was a great opportunity for us to not only share those conversations, but to let some more of the offseason happen. Things worked out perfectly. We have an amazing rundown for today. Stuff. Stuff to talk about. Real stuff.

If we'd really tried to stretch out two or three podcasts last podcasts last week would have been like, one thing happened today. Let's talk about it for 45 minutes. Thankfully, transactions have occurred. And these are sort of the rundowns built more in order of how interesting these things are in the broader sense, not chronological, never is, right? broader sense, not chronological, never is, right? I think the most interesting thing that happened in the last week is Tyler Glasnow getting traded to the Dodgers and signing an extension, so four more years beyond this one, for Glasnow.

The trade was Tyler Glasnow plus Manuel Margot going to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepeo and Johnny DeLuca. And it felt a little light, but the thing about it is, and Johnny DeLuca. And it felt a little light, but the thing about it is, I think it felt light on the Rays' side. I don't think they got enough back. But maybe it's because I always have that look of wonder in my eyes

when I watch Tyler Glass now. I'm just in awe of what could be. And because I'm such a notorious optimist i just felt like they could have found a better offer for glass now it was only one year of course at 25 million so yeah i think that's the key and the 25 million means that he's not super underpaid it's kind of you know one year at cost you know in fact the extension was like $410 at new money. I thought that was light too. Yeah. Well, I mean, that has to do, I think, with the obvious thing, which is what's the over-under on the number of innings

you think the Dodgers will get out of glass now in five years? I mean, you might put the over-under at $500. And so I think that's why you're paying for the starts you get out of him, and you're paying for the upside, the fact that you can get an ace, especially if you get an ace in October. You get a guy that nasty who might even be your number two or number three once the dust settles on this offseason. I mean, that's what you're paying for.

And the reason the Dodgers do it, you know, for anybody who's sort of skeptical about how this shook down and skeptical about Glassnell's health and, you know, skeptical about all of this. The reason they can do this is because they can create another Ryan Pepeo. At least that's how they feel, I think. And so if you can you have a pipeline you got Amit Sheehan you got uh you know Bobby Miller you got uh Michael uh Grove and you know you just got you got guys coming out they got uh they got guys that I was like I was like

who's this uh Kyle Hurt and uh oh man there was something some other name that I was like I don't think people talk about this guy but he has like a 12k 9 in Triple A he's like ready to go you know and and so I think that if you are the Dodgers and you think that you can create another Ryan Pepe oh then what you want is glass now roll the dice on Glassnow every time you can get him in there. And then when he's not in there, you get your Peppio part two to fill in. So I think that some of the transaction analysis math is off when you think you have a pipeline that good. Yeah.

Who you're dealing with, club control um actual salaries all those things are are legitimate factors and i think the extension seeming light to me again as maybe tyler glass now's biggest believer i didn't know i was that person it's the workloads it's the year over year workloads tyler glass now doesn't even know he Glass now had a career high. Yeah. Career high innings last year. For a big league season, anyway, with 120. He's never thrown more than that in the big leagues before. That's where a lot of the concerns come from.

He's done it. Some of the minor league workloads are similar. You've got to add some of those in. I mean, he's had 140s and 150s. Yeah, like 2016 split between AAA and the big leagues of Pittsburgh was 134. 2017 between AAA and the big leagues, 155 and a third. So I think when people say Tyler Glass now never stays healthy, it's an overcorrection similar to the overcorrection of Blake Snell doesn't pitch deep enough in games.

Yes, there is injury risk here, but I think it's over-exaggerated to a slight degree with Tyler Glass now. I think when you look at what he is on a per inning basis, when you consider that he might be replacing Clayton Kershaw's place in the rotation, like Kershaw is a Dodger, maybe no more, right?

Their depth enables them to take this kind of risk because if injuries are still a problem, they have quality options that can fill in. If injuries are less of a concern, if he gets back to the 150, 160, 170 range for a few of these seasons, he's probably a five-war pitcher even without getting to 200 innings. That's the kind of stuff and results that Tyler Glass now gets. So I think that's a huge part of the calculation here. I'm curious to see how everybody treats him in their drafts. I would have to imagine the ADP is ticked up a little bit already since the move to Los Angeles.

We know Tampa Bay is a great place to pitch, but going to an even better team, I would imagine drives up interest in Glass now even further. Yeah, you'd think more wins, uh, maybe, uh, the rays win a lot of games, but there's also,

uh, lesser opponents for glass now, I would think. Um, and, uh, you know, this is a lot of things to like about him as a player after this deal.

I think there's one last, uh, note that's kind of of interest here is you've got Shohei Otani in 2025. And let's say they signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto as well. You know, I think there's a real possibility they go to a six man rotation. I don't know if it's this year or next year or both. But say in 2025, you go to a six man rotation. And, you know, you you know that pitching less leads to fewer injuries. That's just sort of easy math right there. But there's also math out there that shows that over the course of the season, every inning adds just a slight uptick in home run rate.

So pitchers are better if they pitch less. So you could have a Dodgers team that says we are such a super team, like we can actually come up with six really good pitchers and we're going to keep them all healthier and they're going to be better because we're going to rest them more. And we're going to kind of go to the more Japanese model where every pitcher kind of, you know, pitches once a week, you know, and that won't be great for the fantasy players. They'll be annoyed by that. You never get like a two-start pitcher in LA if that's the case, but it could be an interesting way to sort of keep those injuries down. Maybe that's, maybe that's what they're thinking is, you know, the Rays thinking is we're going to collect all these pitchers. And so if half of them were injured, we still got half of half a good roster.

What are the Dodgers are like? We're going to get all these these pitchers and keep them healthy. Going to the Rays side of this for a minute, Ryan Pepeo was someone I was pretty interested in in the brief time we saw him in the big leagues this year. I think it was an oblique injury that slowed him down throughout the first half. Didn't get a ton of time with the Dodgers. It was 42 innings at the big league level, 22 and change at AAA. The thing that had really changed with him though was control. The walk rate, both at AAA and during his time with the Dodgers was a career best. 5.4% walk rate at AAA,

3.1% during that time with the Dodgers. Even if you want to cut that back to 7% or 8%, compared to the double-digit walk rates we saw from him throughout his time in the lower levels of the minors, that was a pretty big skills improvement for Pepeo in a limited volume. So I'm wondering how much they see similarities between Pepeo and Zac Eflin, who they sought out last offseason, at least this version of Pepeo and Zach Eflin, who they sought out last offseason, at least this version of Pepeo, or if they see something that can be kind of Frankenstein together where these new skills with control paired with overall really good stuff could lead them to yet another undervalued arm.

I mean, I was intrigued before, but the fact that the Rays took him back as kind of the key player in this deal only bumps up that interest further. Yeah, I think that one thing that people are sort of like, oh, well, he had this, he made these adjustments and he made these changes and his command is better. And I don't know if I believe it. You know, I understand that he's made some changes and he's made some adjustments but you know when it comes to stats you know a big change in walk rate like that or a big change in location plus which he he did go from a 91 which is reliever level in 2022 to 104 last year which is absolutely doable as a starter like i just don't believe that jump you know like especially given that

he had these command grades on him um all the way up that are not good you know like that was the that was the thing on him was a 40 to 45 command on fangraphs you know like below average command was you have these bad walk rates all the way through the minor leagues so i'm not ready to believe that the walk rates are better um what i will give him is a plus change up uh maybe maybe even an elite level change up um I'll give him a an above average breaking ball I think this hard cutter that he's found is good enough um and with 94 miles an hour he has the velo so i could see the rays doing something where even if the command regresses a little bit the slider percentage goes up you know and he starts to steal some strikes with that slider and that and the reason i kind of believe that is he showed you know better he

showed okay command by location plus on the slider in both years. That's the one that's been the same, you know? And so you've got like this larger sample now of being able to command the slider okay. And it makes sense. It's a cutter, you know, it's a hard slider. It's a kind of a low movement pitch. So he's got this low movement pitch. You say, all right, you know what? He's got all the building blocks to be a great starter, like an elite change, a plus breaking ball, and 94 miles an hour. That's all the building blocks to be a starter.

And if the command regresses, we're going to up the usage of the cutter and steal some strikes that way. And he can be a little bit wild with the foreseam. That's fine. If he can have the cutter when he needs it, we'll find a way to get by, if he walks 10 of the guys so i mean for them also is just really attractive that we could have a a good starter on you know a seven hundred thousand

dollar salary so that's a that's a big part of it there was a funny uh piece by michael bauman on on fangraphs today where it's titled, I know when the Rays are going to trade Ryan Pepeo. And he was basically like, in two and a half years, in three years, they're going to trade Ryan Pepeo because they've done that

on eight of the ten starters that he had on his list. It was like everybody but David Price and Alex Cobb and David Price is David Price and Alex Cobb got hurt right in the window when they would have traded him so now that's actually glass now kind of got hurt in that same window too so you know they're gonna keep them for three years i bet you they get two good years out of them you know predicting which of those years will be the best years um be a little bit difficult. Are you all in on him in drafts? Is there a would you rather?

Do we have some early ADPs? None of them would factor in the fact that now he probably has a rotation spot, right? Right. I just looked at ADPs from the past week. Six drafts. The range is 181 to 202. Average pick is like 193. Okay. I don't think he's going to go up a whole

lot from there. The would you rather actually within the same rotation is Pepeo versus Aaron Savali. They're like eight picks apart. I'm taking Savali. See, I think I'm taking Pepeo. You just want the upside. The ceiling is higher for me stuff-wise. The way you 94 with the upside the stuff is is the ceiling is higher for me stuff wise like the way

yeah the way you're 94 with the fastball excellent change up potential plus breaking ball if that slider comes together that that's more than what savalli brings to the table savalli's like a spin it guy where he's got like three or four breaking balls you know a poor fastball. He's a spin guy. If you want to go outside the Rays, you're going to get a whole bunch of different guys that are in this range. This is the fun spot to shop for pitchers. Throw one else at me.

The other would-you-rathers, Hunter Brown versus Ryan Pepeo. I'm on Hunter Brown. Yeah. That one's actually kind of easy. Would you rather? Hunter Brown versus Ryan Pepeo. I'm on Hunter Brown. Yeah. That one's actually kind of easy. Bryce Miller versus Ryan Pepeo.

Bryce Miller. I've been getting really excited about the Mariners. Every time we talk about them, everything we look at. I want the other sentence you didn't say. Yeah. I'm really tired. My kid was up for two hours last night in the middle of the night. Oh, boy. Just up.

He just wanted to have a party. 12-15 to 2, so my brain's not working. Brian Wu also in that range. I'm taking Wu. Mason Miller. Oh, I'll take Pepe over Miller. Yeah, just the innings. I mean, Mason Miller, as we know, could be a closer instead of an actual starter, so you got that.

How about Evaldi? Nathan Evaldi versus Ryan Peppio. Evaldi. I mean, I'll just be happy and take the first four months and then have an itchy trigger finger when he's throwing 93. I think I might be Peppio over Evaldi, too. Oh, all right. Peppio over Braxton Garrett for me, too. Braxton Garrett goes in this range.

Garrett, to me, there's too much Miles Michaelis where it's like, you think you know what you got, and you think it looks beautiful, but it's a low-stuff, high-command thing, and a little thing goes wrong, and he's Miles Michaelis in the bad year, I feel like. There's also some interesting names on the raised depth chart behind him, where you've got Zach Littell, Shane Boz, and Taj Bradley, all kind of competing for spots with Pepeo.

I'd say Eflin and Savali. That's another thing. I think Pepeo has another option left. So you think there's a performance risk situation where you think he could actually end up back at AAA for a stretch this year if he's struggling? Well, they did it with Taj Bradley. I mean, when you have options

and you have to win as many games as you can in that division, I feel like Eflin and Savali are in. Zach Littell is probably out of options. He has zero options. So I feel like Littell is in. Even as I'm not very excited about him, I'd be way more excited about Pepe. I'm not saying pick Littell over Pepe.

What I'm just saying is Littell's in, you know, to start the season at least. And so then you have Pepe,boz and Bradley fighting for two spots, which Boz is coming out of surgery. Maybe you slow walk him. Bradley kind of, you want him to find those secondaries. I'm a little worried we've got a Taiwan Walker situation with Taj Bradley where the fastball is the best pitch and he's like struggling to find the secondary pitches that fit it.

But I'd be more excited about Shane Boz and Taj Bradley if I knew they were in I think than Pepeo but I think that's a pretty fun group Pepeo Boz and Bradley is going to produce at least one kind of almost like league winner type pitcher

he's not going to win you the league by himself but one of those pitchers is going to be amazing, I think. Picking which one it's going to be. Yeah, Albaaz goes a little earlier than the others. He's going around pick 172. So it's the same range. He missed all of last year. It's just hard to project the innings,

but in terms of his stuff when he's in there, it's pretty exciting. But that was a September of 22 Tommy John, so he's getting this extra time to recover. Walker Bueller, it's the second Tommy John for Walker Bueller. I look at the difference in price between Bueller and Boz. I know Bueller was really good for a long time before this second Tommy John. I think Shane Boz makes a lot of sense value-wise, whereas Buehler is still taking on quite a bit of risk

given that you're spending a top 100 pick to get him. Maybe by the time we get to the end of spring training, everything will look normal with Buehler and it's full steam ahead then. But I think right now, given that we didn't see either one of these guys pitch in 23, I'd rather go later if I'm going to take a chance on someone with that risk profile

yeah I don't know so the pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery twice we've got Eovaldi Jameson Tyon Daniel Hudson Joaquin Soria, Chris Capuano those are the success stories

the five who struggled Josh Johnson Joaquin Soria, Chris Capuano. Those are the success stories. The Five Who Struggled, Josh Johnson, was pretty much done afterwards. Chris Medlin. I don't know. Chris Medlin, that's not quite the Walker Bueller situation. You know what I mean? Chris Medlin seemed like he was kind of always hurt, right?

He had shoulder stuff, I think, on top of the elbow stuff, if I remember correctly, too. Jared Parker. Chris Madlin only had four years in between. Jared Parker had five years in between. Brandon Beachy had two years in between. I mean, that's the one where you're just like, that doesn't seem like it has much to do with Walker Bueller at all.

Brian Wilson had nine years in between. I also... It's not a great list to be on. I also, so here's the other- Not a great list to be on. I mean, honestly, your best case scenario is Nathan Eovaldi. No, and maybe I'm being too optimistic about injuries, even thinking or saying it, but also rehabbing all the way back in 2024 compared to 10, 15 years ago,

things are different now, right? Hopefully, it seems like the medical community has advanced. The recovery has improved a bit. Our biomechanical tracking has advanced, so maybe we know some better stuff about how to keep pitchers healthy, I mean, theoretically at least. Yeah, so I mean,

I think there's a better chance that Buehler, for at least a little while, pitches the way he did before he was hurt than some of those guys didn't have a chance. Because it happened so long ago that it was more of a roll of the dice than it is now. There's a little more to the whole recovery process. Now, I think the other part of this trade, we'll move on momentarily, that's kind of interesting, is Johnny DeLuca. Because he was really going to struggle to find a lot of time with the Dodgers but the Rays I think can afford to find a at least a big side platoon role for him is that possible now that they've cleared Margot

I mean I think there are a lot of rumors about Randy Rosarena potentially being on the move but I wouldn't think they move unless they get something they really like. Luke Raley kind of fits into a floating DH mix right now. So if it's a Rosarena, low, Syrian center, and Raley, DeLuca's a righty, so he'd be a small side platoon. I don't know why I thought DeLuca was a lefty, but is it too small of a role? I got a name for you. He has a lot in common with Isak Paredes.

Alright. I like that. Low strikeout rate and a really high pulled fly ball rate. Even though he's 5'11", 196 listed on Fangraphs, I feel like you're talking about a guy

who's going to make the most out of his power and could be a 20, 25 home run hitting guy, you know, that makes a lot of contact. I think they're trying to, you know, make more contact as a team. And, you know, yeah. What is his role in the short term? I wouldn't bet on anything than just basically replacing Manny Margot. I wouldn't bet on anything than just basically replacing Manny Margot. I think they basically made a trade where they're like,

hey, can we have cheaper versions of the two guys we have? I think the thing for me that could be a little bit different is DeLuca's power and speed might play up a little bit more than Margot's. So for our purposes, he might be more exciting. Margot could be the better real-life player in the long run, but I think DeLuca could fill a similar role. It's interesting, and maybe the Rays aren't done, and that's going to be part of the story here as well. And I think you implied it before, with that interest in Yamamoto,

the Dodgers could still add to that rotation, and they're already in pretty good shape with the moves they've made. They'd be in amazing shape if they went ahead and added one more to the equation. Let's get to Jungho Lee. We talked about a bit on the 3-0 show last week. Six years, $113 million. Let's focus more on the fantasy angle here. The production in the KBO is impressive, but the power is definitely the main question. How much hard contact is Jung-ho Lee going to make against major league pitching? He did well against KBO fastballs, as we talked about last week. There's a pretty big gap velocity-wise, probably about four to five miles per hour on average compared to major league fastballs.

miles per hour on average compared to Major League fastballs. So if you were trying to guess the scouting report against Jungho Lee, I'm going to guess you're going to see a lot of fastballs early on. High and inside fastballs to see if he can catch up to MLB velocity. If he handles that, the game plan

will change. This is a pretty big commitment from the Giants, so they must see some things they really like as far as what he brings to the table. And even if he doesn't hit for a lot of power, how well do you think the hit tool and the OBP skills are going to translate in his

first season in San Francisco? I mean, with a swinging strike rate of 3% in Korea, if you look at Ha Sung Kim's K rates, they actually poured it over pretty well. Haseon Kim played in the same parks against the same competition at roughly the same time because they were, I think they were teammates at some point.

And Haseon Kim, yes. I mean, in 2020, he had a 11% strikeout rate over there. And he came over, he's had more of a 19.6. But if you look over the course of Ha-Seong Kim's history in KBO, he had higher strikeout rates, as high as 19.8% his rookie year. He kind of settled in around 13%. So you have this 13% to 19% conversion for Ha-Seong Kim. What you've got for Jung-Hoo Lee is like fives and sixes in terms of strikeout

rate. So I think we could see a 10% strikeout rate from him. I do think there's going to be an adjustment period. I'm also worried that he pulls the ball. I think that's good, in fact, that he's able to keep this high of a contact rate while getting the ball out in front. fact that like he's able to keep this high of a contact rate while getting the ball out in front so maybe he'll have to adjust where he's fighting off major league fastballs at first right and and hitting them the other way uh but he's like if you've got that intensive a bat to ball skill i feel like you're still going to make contact right it's just going to be are you going to make a contact out in front and hit it for power or are you just going to kind of spray the ball so i would assume that he's going to kind of spray the ball and i'm going to be, are you going to make a contact out in front and hit it for power? Or are you just going to kind of spray the ball? So I would assume that he's going to kind of spray the ball and I'm

going to give him something like a two 80 to two 90 batting average with like 10 to 12 homers and five to 10 stolen bases. And that's, that's the sort of player I can see. And it may not, it may not, he may not hit the ground running with those numbers either, but with enough balls in play, I feel like the lottery tickets will keep him above 250, 260. Plus, he has a pretty good eye, too. And that line you described is almost exactly what Steamer has projected. Yeah, I'm just a little bit lower on the power, I think. A little lower on the power, which is fine.

It's an above-average player. It's like 15% better than league average by WRC+. If he ends up being even an average defender in center field, the Giants are probably happy with that. That's a three- to four-win player. There's also the possibility of more. The other part of this that I think is kind of interesting is, if you're Jung-Hoo Lee, you know there's a velo difference

between the KBO and Major League Baseball. Yeah, you can spend the winter, you know. Yes, you're trading on high-velocity machines every day in the winter until the season starts. I know it's not exactly the same, but the technology is getting better. You and I saw a pitching machine when we were in Nashville, and it was throwing Justin Verlander's arsenal when we were standing behind it. It was enough to make my innards shrink. Yeah, yeah, I was uncomfortable. I was worried about the net in front of me.

Yeah, I was like, is this going to come through the net? Like, it was pretty intense. Just sitting there, you're like, dang, Justin Verlander's good. People hit this? Ever? So I think there's like that aspect where, look, he knows.

The Giants know. Everybody knows who's involved here. He'll get a chance to work on that long before he's in the box in San Francisco. Losny. L-O-S-N-Y. Losny Sports USA. Big data pitching machine. In case you're looking for a pitching machine that could possibly be cheaper than Traject, I don't know.

But it's very much like Traject. They were right next to each other competing with each other. And they were both impressive. Eugene, right? That's right. He sent them to show us his big machine. Yeah, it was awesome. And they had an app where you could adjust all the settings and set it up to basically face any pitcher that you wanted.

Really, really cool stuff. Had this kind of screen that made it render a pitcher's mechanics as the ball was being thrown to the machine too. Very, very cool stuff. Lee's fantasy value. Definitely like a filler type guy for me. Kind of gets drafted like a fourth or fifth outfielder. In the NFBC right now, the earliest pick in the last week, 226 overall,

so still relatively affordable. I've seen some tweets from around the industry suggesting that the outfield gets really thin later on, in part because teams mix and match and share roles a lot, so you're just not getting enough playing time. And if that format in particular is is weekly so you really want people who are going to play every day um so there will be a difference like in your 12 team he could be like a last pick honestly like like like you see in a 12 team i'm like i don't know like yeah if you want to put him on your bench. If you want to have one bench pick.

And if it's in daily leagues, you're like, here's a guy I can stick in for some hits. That could be okay. But the reason he's a little bit more interesting in weekly leagues is, I do think that the Giants, despite all their mixing and matching in the past, have been really missing an everyday player that can play center field. That's why they pushed this number higher than anybody had. Everybody had it sort of $60, $70, $80 million. They went to $120 that they have to pay after the posting fee.

So I think, honestly, there's a lot hanging on this. You have to think about their GM just got a one-year extension and pretty much is hanging on this, you have to think about their, their GM, you know, just got a one year extension and pretty much is hanging on by a thread, you know, and he just spent $112 million on this guy. I think that they're going to put them out there and they're going to play him every day. I mean,

he's 25 and they need a center fielder. I think that's where he can make up some ground. I think jungle league can be better in weekly formats than people expect relative to projection because the volume and the playing time will be there consistently. I think it's interesting too. Fangraphs has a 60 on

his speed and he hasn't stolen a ton of bases in the KBO, but he's been pretty efficient. He's coming off ankle surgery and there's other people who think he's actually not that fast. Also with the the new major league name is godson grandson of the wind and there was questions about who was faster him or his dad so it would just be really funny if a guy that was stealing 10 to 12 bags most years in the kbo comes over with the new major league rules that were put in last year it's's 25 or 30 or something like, wow,

I guess it really is a lot easier to steal bases here with these, these new rules. But I do think as a depth outfielder, deeper leagues, especially I'm interested in Lee, even though San Francisco is a difficult place to hit. I don't think his game was power anyway. So if you've got a good power base,

he fits really well. Cheap average is hard to find. Here's a sign signing that happened almost two weeks ago. We were listening to Sweet Meg when this one broke. Eduardo Rodriguez gets a four-year deal with the Diamondbacks. At first, there was a moment where it looked like he was going to Cincinnati, and you and I, amidst the music, were like, ooh, that's not a good place for Eduardo Rodriguez. Play a sad song for Eduardo because Great American Ballpark is not going to be kind to him. And like two songs later, it was actually the Diamondbacks.

And then we both thought, this is good. Play a happy song. Get everyone dancing again. Eduardo Rodriguez is going to a place where he can have a little bit of success again. The difference, though, between Comerica in Detroit and Chase Field, even though Chase Field is not the old Chase Field pre humidor where it was a big time hitters park, it's still a slight downgrade for him, but it's a team upgrade.

So I wonder if the team upgrade ultimately offsets most of the park change for his home starts. He's just not, he's not my guy, you know, trying to say nice things about him because he's obviously had a decent track record he's coming off a decent year but you know people have to remember the 474 era in 2021 with boston the 471 in 2016 uh you know there were some some really boring

seasons in between a 419 and 2017 so like you know for his career we have 1100 innings with a 4era like i i can say all i want about his stuff and his command and this and that i feel like that's who he is he's just like a 4era guy sometimes you know the bigger the sample the more era actually starts to be something you can use. So a 4.03 ERA, a 4.12 Sierra, like that's who he is. He's a four ERA guy. He's fine. You know, I don't, I guess they can, they can depend on innings, um, you know, with him, but the knee was a big deal. Once the knee was, was knee was was that was why he was traded from baltimore to boston it was the knee um i believe so you know i don't know does the knee

just maybe the knee is fine now but i feel like you know you have a guy who's kind of lower stuff more command and you have this old reoccurring knee condition, all it takes is for the knee to flare up. And then all of a sudden the command isn't quite there. And then it's just either he's hurt or he's inconsistent with results. So he's not my type of player. Um, he does have a lot of pitches, which is something I've said I liked in the past. Uh, but it's not actually that many. If you talk about more than 10%, it's, it's four pitches, but two are fastballs. And the sinker is just really kind of a boring movement. So I don't know, man.

He's okay. It's fine. And for that price, actually, for the D-backs, that's $20,480,000. That's like just buying a middle rotation guy. That's not ace prices. I think the reason I'm okay with it, I even kind of like it for them. They basically graduated all of that young pitching.

It's all kind of part of the big league roster already, and I think we have more questions and answers now about Ryan Nelson. They graduated, but we don't know what the grades are yet. Yeah, Brandon fought. We talked about throughout the playoffs. The adjustment sort of started in August, made the move on the rubber, and things started to fall into place for him.

I think we can reasonably buy that adjustment. I think if you're saying, who's better for 2024, Erod or Fott? I think I'd actually take Fott over Erod. I don't think I dislike Erod. I think I'm a little more into him than you are, but the price is where it always is. This guy has lived most of his career in the pick 175 to 200 range. He goes back to his time in Boston because there used to be more upside.

Now it's probably more the stability. And I think given the way his career started, some of the lost time, of course, was due to personal matters. He had myocarditis, I think, in 2020. So some pretty odd, unforeseen things it hasn't been his legs that have been a problem for him so he's been a little more durable than i would have expected based on how his career started i think he kind of scratches the itch of what they really needed they needed one more solid starter yeah tommy henry was the only other lefty they really had that could possibly start. So they just had nothing

in the organization ready to contribute. He has one season over 160. Yeah. And if you look at the last five years combined, where do you think Eduardo Rodriguez ranks in innings? And he's missed some time. Oh my god, because he missed all

of 2020. Where do you think he ranks among all pitchers? Not that well, but yes, he has a 203 in there. So I bet you he ranks like 15th or something. Let's get the numbers. Eduardo Rodriguez, number 42 in innings

since 2019. I guess that's relatively durable. 604 and two-thirds innings. So that's more innings than Brandon Woodruff. It's more innings than Blake Snell. But it's still only 120 innings per season. That's more innings than Jordan Montgomery. Wow.

It's more innings than Verlander during that span. More than Evaldi. It's weirdly impressive. We're damning him with faint praise. But this is praise, at least. Hey, it's what pitching costs, so I think it's ultimately a pretty good signing for Arizona, even though I'm not

going to have him everywhere in fantasy, but he's not necessarily in a void for me, either. It could actually work out pretty good, at least in the early part of the deal. Here's a fascinating one. Jamer Candelario to the Reds? Like, of all the things, of all the things you could have projected the Reds like of all the things of all the things you could have projected the Reds to do

in the winter I wouldn't have put even a depth infielder on their free agent wish list and it came in below all the projections they got a deal on him what the heck happened here was it one of those things where they thought we kind of like him let's just see and then they're like oh hey we got him

do you think Candelario signed too early i thought from the outside looking in that the best market for him was going to be after matt chapman was off the board right because if you needed a third baseman you would prefer matt chapman to jamer candelario 10 out of 10 times right We've talked about the Matt Chapman hard hit balls, not pulling enough of his bad balls in 2023. Oh, I think I have an answer for you. What do you think happened? This is just a steamer projection. It's not gospel. There's other projections.

People have different numbers. But his steamer projection is for one win. And what we have seen in the past from the market is, and this is becoming more and the past from the market is, and this is becoming more and more true over time is that war is nonlinear and that teams do not necessarily want to pay $8 million per win for guys that are,

or $9 million per win for guys that are going to give you a win to two wins. Right? So even if let's say he's a one and a half win player and by war dollar sign you spit out 15 million dollars a year like you know i could see teams being like yeah but we still would be below average at third base like why would i pay 15 a year to be below average at third base um whereas the reds i think uh i think they almost bought pitching with this 15 million dollars like to maybe maybe the idea is we pay hymer 15 is it jamer hymer anyway candelario it's jamer and i'm idiot because i was sitting with uh eric carabel

and tristan cockcroft the very first time we're at a fall league game when candelario was still falling player whoa and i thought it was hymer and they're like no it's jamer and i'm like no Carabelle and Tristan Cockcroft, the very first time we were at a Fall League game when Candelario was still a Fall League player. Whoa. And I thought it was Heimer. And they're like, no, it's Jamer. And I'm like, no, come on, guys. It's Heimer. I took a lot of Spanish. And they're like, no.

No, dude, it's Jamer. It's like when Eric and Tristan tell you it's Jamer, it's Jamer. And it is Jamer. That's crazy. But in Spanish, it would. Anyway, that's fine. I've only taken four years of Duolingo. It's the J-E.

You don't see a lot of J-E's in Spanish, actually. That's what got I've only taken four years of Duolingo. It's the J-E. You don't see a lot of J-E's in Spanish, actually. That's what got me. Okay. Yeah, because maybe Jaime would be J-A. Anyway. It would look more like Jaime. Anyway. Our Spanish names podcast drops in 2024. The idea here, I think

maybe is to make Jonathan India expendable. More expendable. He already was expendable. Um, I, although he already was expendable. Another reason not to trade India first, unless you think you're going to pay Candelario more in that scenario. Like what?

Yeah, right, right. Why, why bird in hand Bush situation? Um, I guess this is also bad for Ellie De La Cruz. Like that's short term because it just it crowds things up even more on the infield.

If some people are saying Ellie to center, maybe. OK, Spencer Steer is going to play in the outfield now for sure. Right. That's definitely happening. Yeah. The other way to think about it is look at the Reds group of young position players and think about that group similar to the Orioles in terms of depth and say they're going to go trade. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. They bought pitching by making Noel V. Marte or Jonathan India more expendable.

Let's say you get more from Noel V. Marte on the trade market than Jonathan India. Which one would you trade? I mean, given that you know you would get more. Would you trade Noel V. Marte to get more? And so I'm saying you can trade Noel V. Marte for a guy who has like three years of team control left and that you're very excited about. Or you can trade Jonathan India for a guy who has like a year or two left, and you're a little bit less excited about. I think I would trade Noel V. Marte in that scenario.

Marte is just a really interesting cat that I can't quite get a read on. He's hit a ball 115.6, which is amazing. And when you look at where numbers like this are most important, raw maximum exit velocity, it's most important for the rookie to understand his power ceiling. It's almost like Stuff Plus where after you have five years of sample, you don't necessarily need to run to the Max EV anymore. You know what I mean? You know more about this guy. And so, you know, Maxie B is the stuff plus of hitters, and he has a 115.6, but he's had some real up and down power numbers. He's never had an ISO over 200 since rookie ball in 2019. And so it's like, is he just one of these guys who's always going to tease you and hit the ball really hard sometimes, but not really make the most of his power?

and hit the ball really hard sometimes, but not really make the most of his power. You know, it's just a... And then, like, what do you think his pure natural position is? Is he going to actually have defensive value? Or are people just faking defensive value early in his career and he's going to end up in the corner outfield or at first base or something like that? Yeah, the defense is really tough.

Like, I just haven't seen enough of him to make a strong call on that. The concerns, I guess, coming through the last two seasons have been that for his age especially, his body's changing really fast, and the general concern was a loss of athleticism. But I don't know, man. How do you lose athleticism and steal 24 bases between AA and the big leagues?

He was 24 for 30 as a base stealer. So maybe getting bigger but he's still he's still pretty twitchy and dominican winter league he popped his hamstring and his hurt he's injuries has been part of the story too and and maybe he's a guy that plays third for a little while and by the time he's approaching free agency he moves across the infield and plays first which is harder for him to do in cincinnati depending on how things play out here in the next couple of seasons. Especially since Candelario's on the team now. Right. I just, I thought it was, in Candelario, like landing in Cincinnati is great.

If you're going to get a full playing time share in Cincinnati and you have a guy that's got pretty good plate skills and like kind of 20-ish home run power, that plays up in a big way in Cincinnati. He could pop 30 home runs in a full season for the Reds. That's well within range. So it's like, on the one hand, this is great for Jamer Candelario's value. On the other hand, the fallout of it is really hard to figure out at this moment because it feels like part of a series of moves. But if the exciting player in Marte gets me back a potential future frontline starter, or even someone who's close to that already, I think you have to entertain that move and do that.

Because the Reds, as much as we love Hunter Green and Nick Lodolo, there's a lot riding on both of those guys staying healthy. And even if they stayed healthy, they're still probably at least one more quality pitcher short of being a legitimate dangerous playoff team. This team would be so much better with a real solid veteran

one or two. I was just thinking about how much I like Luis Castillo in Cincinnati. As a power pitcher that gets a ton of ground balls, like he fits, like that's the guy. And they had the chance. They could have extended him or tried to extend him.

They traded him. They got a lot back. They did really well in that trade. And that's part of why they moved this rebuild along really quickly, was making that move. But now, how do you get that back? How do you find that in another package? That's the challenge, I think, if you're in that front office right now.

Yeah, I mean, to some extent, they have a Spencer Strider-esque guy in Hunter Green, and that park tells you how difficult it is to even be Spencer Strider in Cincinnati. You know what I mean? There's a lot of similarities there, and Green gave up a lot of homers. It's just a really tough park. So I think ideally, what if they sign a Jordan Montgomery? It's not my favorite type of pitcher, but it is just like this veteran who's pitched in tough ballparks before, who has a big mix and might be able to keep the ball in the

park and seems like he can put up some innings. I feel like maybe that's a good move for them. It's kind of funny because I thought Eduardo Rodriguez would get smashed in Cincinnati. He's got the same five-year home run rate as Jordan Montgomery. They're so similar. And Rodriguez has more innings than Montgomery, too. Montgomery's going to get more money and probably a fifth year, if I had to guess. That's crazy.

And Rodriguez probably struck more people out in the last three years. Slightly higher K rate. Wow. Well, you know, recency bias is a thing. It's very real. And you just heard me sort of succumb to it

because they're really similar. Four pitch pitchers i guess eduardo has more of a better four seam than a sinker i mean they're really similar maybe would you say uh jordan montgomery secondaries are better than ever order you guys yes probably i mean there's more of them that you like i think that's that for sure so i. I could see the case where they look similar for a year or two, and then Montgomery is better in years three, four, and five. There's a little more there at the end of the contract for Montgomery than there is for Erod.

That wouldn't really surprise me if it played out like that. Elie De La Cruz, the range on him in the last week, picked 19 to pick 28. A firm second-round. Everyone loves him. In 15 team leagues. Even if they have a spot that he can call his own before we get to spring training, which seems possible.

Are you going anywhere near Ellie at that price? I think so. They're both what? They're mid to late second round? Is any of them in the third round? No, all of those pick the 19 to 28. That's all second round.

It's also for 15 team league. Yeah. I mean, yeah, I, I, I saw enough of a change in his plate discipline over time. Uh, you can look at his, uh, O swing and Z swing by game. And you can see that he basically just swung a little bit less. So it's not super clear because what you'd really like to see is the Z swing stay the same. And Z swing, by the way, for anybody listening that doesn't know what that is, it's swinging at pitchers inside the strike zone. And O-swing is swinging at pitchers outside the strike zone. He basically swung less over the course of the season.

And I like that because he's a little bit aggressive and he strings at too many stuff outside the zone. But I would have liked better if he'd stayed aggressive inside the zone. So yeah, there's some risk there. But, you know, I've been out on too many people like this the FOMO is too strong for me to to say i'm totally out and uh honestly like i don't think you know like who are the players like this jazz chism um you know who are some high k

uh guys you know i guess you could almost say bobby witt in the second year you know, who are some high K, uh, guys, you know, I guess you could almost say Bobby Witt in a second year, you know, where you're like, yeah, early career, Bobby Witt, I think is fair.

Um, it hasn't always worked out, but you, in this case, I don't think you have as much of an injury situation. Uh, we had to worry about injuries and I think you do have like primo, primo speed and power. And I know he hits the ball into the ground, but he hits the ball so hard that when

he hits the ball in the air, it's gone. And so I think, you know, steamer projections, 246, 20 homers, 30 stolen bases. I think that's light on stolen bases. 31 stolen bases. Next year, when he had 35 stolen bases and 427 plate appearances last season, I think this guy is going to go 240, 25, 50. You're not going to take that in the second round? 240, 25, 50. That can work. That could still work in the second round

I mean it's not the batting average you want but hey get Jung-Hoo Lee later combining two players with very different tools here's a game for you better hard hit rate in his rookie season Eli De La Cruz or Bobby Witt Jr. I mean, I'm just gonna,

I mean, I think because you asked it, it's Bobby wit, but I think it's Ellie. It's Ellie. You are correct. 40, 45.9% to 38.6.

Yeah. Better strikeout rate in his rookie season. Witter Ellie wit. Of course. Witt, 21.4. Ellie, 33.7. Better walk rate, Witt or Ellie? Yeah, Witt wasn't a great comparison.

No, it's okay. No, it is because the slash line, the problem with an early round player with a low average and potentially lower OBP, it scares you. It just scares you. Where they put in the lineup. It just scares you. It absolutely does. It's a totally fair comparison because they both get the power and speed and the things we look for in first rounders.

But they, you know, like, will a team continue to play them first in the lineup and let them do whatever they want to do if they have a 3 or 295 OBP, you know? But I think in the case of both of these, both these teams are, um, I was going to be really rude. Uh, both, both of these teams are in a place where they were, they have, they want to have these sort of jewel star, you know, this is our, our star of the future. This is our guy. This is the guy that's going to take us over the mountaintop. They're not going to mess around with that. You know, Bobby Witt has a 300 OPP.

I don't care. He's our laid off guy or he's a two hitter, whatever he is. You know, like he's whatever he wants to be. Yeah, his OPP jumped by 25 points from rookie year to year two. I think part of that improvement is just getting the reps. If you mess around with the playing time for a guy like that, how is he going to get better? Like really? I think when you, when you do what wit did at triple a, and when you do what Ellie did at triple a,

I don't think there's a whole lot you can learn by going back down when you're this tooled up. I think the other part of it is Ellie is a good enough defender where if he's still figuring it out at the plate, great. He's the most exciting number seven hitter in the game for half the year. You can live with that. And he's still going to steal a ton of bases. He's still going to hit some sick home runs, even if the slash line looks a lot like it did in his rookie year. If it's marginal improvement, that could still lead to a line very similar to what you outlined so you're in and in the first two rounds essentially in la and you might get a dip there might be a slight

slight drop in that price for a little while if the the uncertainty about how this depth chart's going to resolve itself persists i think the most difficult decision for me will be um you know i would love to take two uh starting pitchers in the first five rounds somewhere. And, uh, I think it will be difficult to be like, you know, it'll be about which types, like what the, what's the, would you rather on starting pitchers where he is? Who's a, who's a backend second round starting pitcher? is... Oh, man. I like all these pitchers, of course. Oh, yeah. I like second-round pitchers. Who would have thought? He's next to Corbin Burns and Zach Wheeler

for ADP right now. I would take both of those guys over Ellie at this point for 2024 only. Luis Castillo and Kevin Gossman are also in that round, in that range. This is why it pays if you are in high stakes leagues or let's say you care about one league and you say why why would i play any other leagues except for the one

league i really care about is because you need to practice this like you need to kind of almost mock it you need to mock draft it even if it's like for a different league you're actually going to play out you need to see what people what kinds of decisions people are making you need to know like if i pass on corbin burns what's going to come back around to me on the third or if i spend this much on corbin burns what does that mean i can't spend on later if it's an auction you know what i mean like you need to practice these decisions because you know right here i can tell you yeah i'd probably rather have burns than ellie but what if i play these things out and i say wow there are so many good second

round starting pitchers that in fact, you know, coming back around the horn, I'd be more excited about the starting pitcher I could get in the third than I would be about the shortstop I can get in the third. Yeah. So if you're sitting kind of like a mid position in the second round and you're looking at Ellie versus Burns versus Wheer and you choose ellie when it comes back to you in the middle of the round you're probably looking at kirby glass now pablo lopez or zach gallon as your first picture somebody asked me for a top five recently and i put kirby in it yeah but the kirby kirby i mean but that might be a lot of people might be like oh kirby i'm gonna get him in the third and then you're like oh i waited for kirby and i got glass now

but that's what i was getting at earlier with like the mariners like they do so many things right in pitching development they've got guys with great skills and it's a great park and the team's not bad so all of these really gonna come around to you in the third, everyone, everyone seems to like Kirby. And I think most people seem to like at least the combo of, of Kirby and Castillo, if not Logan Gilbert as well. And then the, the price difference compared to Miller and Wu,

like those are almost the bargains the way they're, they're going right now. So you can, you can get into that Seattle rotation with all these different price points and kind of feel good about it at every single spot. That's what I was trying to get to earlier. But also, if you're playing this game,

you're like, oh, I take Ellie now, and I'm waiting, and oh, Kirby's there. That's great. Well, if it's Kirby, and you're not as excited about the other guys, then maybe you should actually take Corbin Burns because you don't want to do this thing where you're like, oh, Kirby will be there, and then you have to sweat out like 10 picks.

You're like, please, please don't take Kirby. That's the part of the game of chicken is like, okay, I waited here, but then are there enough fallback options if there's a run for me to be okay? And if there is a run and i have to keep going hitter i take a closer and i have to wait and build that rotation later if i go down to my ace logan web you know round four round five am i okay with some combination of logan webb and fromber or max freed or yamamoto like can i build a rotation around one of those guys and we push a few starters up a little earlier?

You've got to go through the exercise to understand what you're really comfortable with. In a vacuum, it's interesting that you're actually in on Ellie because of past missteps with players like that. I feel it with Bobby Witt Jr. I was like, no, no, I've got to see it. I've got to see it. It happened and he was

totally fine where he went. I think the thing that I'm trying to learn is that when you're talking about the elite the very very best prospects the very very best prospects actually don't fail that much not not often we have the like ben grieves yes i know those guys exist that's a long time ago you know yeah how old is that when grieve failed yeah Yeah, that's the right name. But normally, in terms of a top five prospect bat, we're not talking about a lot of failures since. Ben Greve ripped off a stretch from 97 to 2004 where he was at least averaged by WRC Plus

every single year to start his career. Yeah. Well, that's not what was expected out of him. Expectations were higher than that. Man, history has not been kind to Ben Greve's career. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's not what was expected out of him. Expectations were higher than that. And history has not been kind to Ben Greaves' career. And now we just kick

his name around like I did. Now I'm like looking at him like, hey, he was pretty good at not chasing. I mean, 280, 28 homers like for a couple years. He'd be more exciting in today's game

than he was in that era because that was an era where everybody was hitting for more power than that. Oh, that's right. Yeah. So, you know. All right. Yeah. So,

you know, all right, we got about three minutes left. We're going to save some injury updates for the next episode. You're just going to yell a bunch of names at me. And I'm like, I like that guy. I don't like that guy.

I'm just going to yell stuff for the next three minutes. I'm going to limit you to three minutes. We'll know about two minutes and 45 seconds to wax poetic about Seth Lugo and or Michael Walker going to the Royals. Seth Lugo, two really great breaking balls. I think the fastballs are average. I don't know why anybody didn't give him this deal before. I think somebody else should have given it.

A better team should have given this deal. Maybe this deal is so they can trade him later. Maybe it's just so that they can't develop this guy. No matter what, to me, he's like an above average three, below average two. Why is that not worth $15 million a year? Done. Michael Walker, I don't know.

Sure. He's like, I don't know, 100 innings, could be a four and a half ERA, could be a three and a half. Yeah, you really hit the gas pedal there. I'd like to extend my apologies to anybody who listens to the show at one and a half times. You're could be a three and a half. You really hit the gas pedal there. I'd like to extend my apologies to anybody who listens to the show at one and a half times. You're having to rewind that several times because

Edo just went double time on you and you weren't expecting that at all. Okay, well I guess we can talk about Lugo for another minute because I thought you were going to use more of that time. The price for him is kind of cheap right now. Pick 266. Oh, I like him in fantasy.

I mean, it's Kansas City. Although, this is the type of player I get a lot of, and then I lose in wins. Like, how many wins is he going to give you? Like, eight? How high are we going to get on the Royals? Like, how much bounce back are we going to bake into them for the season?

Oh, don't get too excited about it. I mean, it's still not a good team. It's still not very good. I'm not trying to be rude about it. I'm just trying to say, can they be like an 82-win team? Right now, there are only one, two, three, four, five teams below them in projected war. Yeah, I look at this roster. I like MJ Melendez as a

cheap outfielder. It kind of fits into our conversation earlier. Hey, where can you get an outfielder that should play a lot? If Melendez and Massey hit their like 75th percentile projections that would be pretty huge for this team. And they might get to like

Nelson Velasquez and if Cole Regan keeps it up then I think they could keep get to like, oh, Nelson Velasquez. And if Cole Reagans keeps it up, then I think they could get to 81 wins. I'm laughing because Cole Reagans. We should actually dedicate an entire episode to speculating wildly on pitchers who are nowhere near a rotation that could be top 100 picks next year. That could be top 100 picks next year. Did anyone on any podcast outside of a Rangers podcast discuss Cole Reagans last December? Oh, my goodness. Oh, yeah, that's a good podcast.

I mean, I have my deep sleepers. Oh, let me see if I can pull it out real quick. Just because receipts are worth it. Deep sleepers, Eno, Saris. i think these are pretty good this is bonkers there there are not even dude i killed it on bats check this out kepler candelario jd davis jp crawford michael massey adam frazier uh, Nolan Jones, and Stone Garrett. Dude, I missed two out of like eight. On the pitchers, I didn't do as good. But this is, I mean, you're talking about, this is 400 plus ADP.

Braxton Garrett, Ken Waldachuk, Mitch Keller, Tyler McGill, Kyle Gibson was okay Matt Brash Brash was great out of the bullpen it wasn't great for fantasy but he was very good as a reliever Brian Abreu and Tyler Wells so I think you know

considering like what you're spending to get those guys I think I did okay yeah I will do something similar once I've done the research you can't just spring this on me dude you're spending to get those guys, I think I did okay. Yeah. I will do something similar once I've done the research. You can't just spring this on me, dude. I just had an idea in the waning seconds of an episode, and I'll give you more than two days to come up with it.

We got half of a rundown already made for Wednesday, so I think we can safely say that's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. I'll have one deep name for you. Early deep name before the new year. I'll come up with one. All right. So, yeah, I think our schedule is one more pod this week, off next week,

and then Eno's on vacation the first week of January. So we'll have pods. I'm just not sure who's going to be in the other chair yet. I should probably get on that because these next two weeks are going to fly. Give us a follow on X. Eno is at Eno Saris. I'm at Derek Van Riper. Follow the pod at Rates and Barrels.

If you've got a question for a future episode, ratesandbarrels at gmail.com. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening. Take care.