Rates & Barrels - Weekend LDS Fun | Rays and White Sox Face Elimination; NLDS Matchups 1-1

Episode Date: October 11, 2021

Eno, Britt and DVR review a great group of weekend playoff games as the Astros and Red Sox try to close out their ALDS series to begin the week, while home-field advantage has shifted in each of the NLDS series with the Brewers-Braves and Dodgers-Giants knotted up at one game apiece.  Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Watch the show *Live* on weekdays at 11:30a ET/8:30a PT on YouTube and subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Subscribe to The Athletic at 50% off for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Braids and Barrels presented by Topps. Check out Topps Project 70 celebrating 70 years of Topps baseball cards. It is Monday, October 11th. Derek Van Ryper, you know, Saris Pritjoli here with you on this Monday. Another great four-playoff game day. We are so lucky to have that. Didn't look like we were going to get that when the weekend kicked off, so I think we're all happy and maybe relieved simultaneously

that there's plenty to get to. So we're going to recap everything that happened from the series over the weekend and take a look forward to the Game 3 and Game 4 matchups. Let's get going in the AL and start with the Astros-White Sox series. That series looked like it was going to end yesterday because at one point the Astros opened up a huge lead. They chased Dylan Cease in the third inning of that game.

So it just looked like, okay, here it is. Here's the sweep. Houston's exerting dominance on the series, and we're done here, but a nice rally for the White Sox, and certainly some drama in this game, too, including a throw home that hit Yasmany Grandal and led to a big, I don't know, hubbub, I guess we'll call it on the field. That seems like a fair word to use. And it's a very questionable bullpen management by Dusty Baker along the way. So Britt, I want to start with you. This series has been in your kitchen.

Well, not literally, but you were covering it in Houston. What did you make of the events that unfolded in game three where there was a lot of drama? Yeah, it was chaos. And what was crazy to me is I was watching the other game and then I flipped over to that game and I'm like, man, they tied it. So then I had to go back in and rewatch parts

of what the White Sox were able to do. But guys, you see plays that you never have seen in your life. I mean, the Red Sox Yankees, I mean, the Red Sox Rays certainly have one of those. And then also I've never seen a throw to first base hit a player like that. Have you guys like in 15 years covering baseball? I've just never seen that. And, you know, the Astros certainly thought that he got in the way on purpose, come to find out that the rules, you could basically

run wherever you want. You can zigzag, you can, you know, do whatever you want to get to first base, which I found crazy. I thought that was a big momentum changer there. I think that, you know, the White Sox were too good of a team to kind of go quietly. I thought their approach was much better. Yes, you knew we were going to have a playoff series that was going to involve some kind of Dusty Baker second guessing.

Let's keep in mind, though, that the Astros' bullpen has been, I know they won the first two games, but they were quietly kind of Dusty Baker second guessing. Let's keep in mind though, that the Astros bullpen has been, I know they won the first two games, but they were quietly kind of shaky, like Graveman in particular. We always knew this was kind of the underbelly of the Houston team. So I'm kind of excited for game four because I think if you're the Astros

and what was maybe the biggest deal was Tempura after the game saying, hey, kind of insinuating that the Astros are still cheating. I mean, are we going to talk about that? How long do we have? Because that was just, I mean, this is going to be a heated game. I'm going to have to watch this from the first pitch to the last because it seems to me very clear that there could be a brawl. There could be some serious bad blood here. There could be some inside pitches i mean you're gonna come at the astros like that after everything um and do it on a big stage like this uh i don't know i don't know what to make of that what do you guys think i mean he said it was because they they didn't strike they struck out

as much in game three as they did in the first two games in Houston combined or something or more, whatever. He was basically saying, hey, in strikeout in Houston, I wonder why, you know, just asking questions sort of deal, big just asking questions energy there from Tepera. I don't know, you know, I just think that the matchups were different, you know, like, I just think that the matchups were different, you know, like I just think that the pitchers were better, you know, like the, the, the, the white socks pitcher on that night was better. I didn't think that Lynn was going to strike out a lot of Astros, you know? So I don't think it was necessarily like what,

what signs do you have to give up for Lance Lynn? It's probably going to be a fastball. Yeah. Like pick your, pick your mic pick your uh poison on that but um you know one thing that stood out for me uh on that play is i feel like maybe we haven't seen that exact play with yosemite grandal being hit um but we see something like that and argue about something like that most post seasons i feel like wasn't't there the Trey Turner running to first? And the thing is,

so if there had been some sort of obstruction regarding his, like if someone had been throwing the ball to first and Yasmany Grandal got in the way of it where he was, he would have been out. Because there is a baseline you have to be in for the play at first but but because the question wasn't the play at first the question was the throw home the only thing that they had to decide is whether or not he intentionally uh hit the ball

and so they said it looked like he ran in a straight line, I guess. I think he took a real inside path. I mean, he's running on the grass, right? Yeah, that was a savvy veteran move. I don't think he waved an arm at the ball or anything. Tom Haley explained the call and why they applied the rules the way they did. And I think it makes sense. The throw from first to home is different than the throw from home to first just in terms of how these rules work.

But it also makes sense to be a little bit mad at Yasmany Grandalva because the student was running in the grass. That's a natural place to run, right? You kind of have to seek that out. So I don't know. I think that that's a difficult rule. And it was a weekend of difficult rules. And we'll get to some other stuff later.

But it is actually one of the things, I guess it's not unique to baseball, but it's not my favorite thing. When we start writing about the rules, like first of all, the rule book is some dry ass reading. I don't know if you've ever tried to read it. It is, it is some boring ass legalese, you know, if, if where to henceforth, blah, blah, blah. Oh my my god i hate reading it um and plus like every rule has subsections and then there's like references to other rules so you have like check also rule 5b32 you know so like you kind of have to check like five different places to figure out one rule uh but i guess you know i i had a little bit of football on because the father

in law is here and uh they do the same thing in football, right? They have a rules expert come in and be like, well, you know, while we're, while we're reviewing this play, let me explain to you the three rules that came to, that came to bear in this situation. So I guess, uh, it's not unique to baseball, but it's not my favorite part of fandom. No, no, it's not the best part of the game. I mean, I think the, the play that in boston was the one that i had more people concerned about a rule that needs to be on the books to change things there but we'll get to that in just a few minutes

the weirdest thing i think about this game from a decision standpoint was the decision for dusty baker to put yemi garcia into the game as a mid plate appearance replacement. And matchup wise, it didn't really make a lot of sense. Jake Kaplan had a good recap of the game, breaking this down. A couple of switch hitters, Larry Garcia hit the home run and Cesar Hernandez, also a switch hitter, was the next batter up. So going with a righty who's a lot more effective against same handed hitters didn't really make sense tactically and then the timing of the move made it even more curious for dusty was there anything that that made sense to you guys about that decision no um no but i kind of i kind of knew this right you kind of the first two games people were questioning larusa even a little bit last night about leaving

the starter in too long. And there really hadn't been a whole lot of second guessing about Dusty, so you kind of felt like he was due, almost. I don't think this changes the tenor of the series. I think Houston wins this series possibly tonight. I think probably tonight. I don't know if the events of last night's game swayed either one

of you onto Houston's side at all, but to me, it was nice that Chicago got that win. They haven't played a home playoff game in forever there. I thought that was nice, but I just don't see Chicago beating Houston twice. Do you guys? Twice more?

No, I don't think so. I was looking at the Luis Garcia's pitch velocity chart to be like, oh, his last fastball was down a tick. But, I mean, it looks like he was still at 93-94 like he was all game. Yeah, it's one of those things. You usually see that reserve for a pitcher clearly being hurt, but that didn't seem to be the case at all with Luis Garcia. So definitely a strange decision by Dusty Baker.

We knew he'd probably have decisions that were puzzling in this series made by these managers. Tony La Russa, I thought, made a really dumb decision back in game two. The White Sox had an early mid-game lead. Giolito didn't make it through five. It seemed like the prime opportunity to go to Michael Kopech. He went to the short relievers instead. After the game said they would have used Kopech if they needed him to win, which was just a dumb quote on top of a bad decision.

So way to cover both situations there, Tony. But yeah, this time we're talking about the situation with Dusty and the decision made on Sunday. I think the other interesting thing was Zach Greinke's usage on Sunday. Only 21 pitches. I thought maybe they interesting thing was Zach Greinke's usage on Sunday. Only 21 pitches. I thought maybe they'd stretch him out a little bit more. And there are some weather concerns, as Max Bay puts in the chat. The weather looks terrible, actually, in Chicago.

So we may be waiting another day for game four. It's Urquidy versus Carlos Rodon. Britt, you kind of made your prediction already. You don't think the White Sox get a second win, or at least you don't think they can win two more. But you think the series ends today if the game is played today? Yeah, I think the White Sox get a second win, or at least you don't think they can win two more, but you think the series ends today if the game is played today? Yeah, I think the series... I do.

That is my prediction. You guys may feel differently. I don't know. Eno, what's your side? No, I like that. I think Rodon's velocity was really poor the last time you saw him, and that's somewhat predictive. So I think how many innings are you going to get from Rodon?

I think is a great question to ask. And if you're asking that question before the game even starts, I think you're saying the Astros are going to win. I did notice something real quick. Luis Garcia, the fastball, the vertical movement on his fastball was the worst of the game the last pitch he threw. Okay. So maybe they had some sort of injury spotter, fatigue spotter situation

where they said, uh-oh, get him out of there. But it didn't work out, let's say. If I had to set an over-under for outs recorded by Carlos Rodon tonight, I'd set the number probably at nine and a half. Yeah. I think that'd be a good place to put it. If he goes three and he pitches well they may go to ronaldo lopez for two or three innings copec pitched yesterday

so he's not going to pitch in this one but i i think they've been planning for some sort of tandem situation all along for rodan given the way he's been dealing with injuries here for the last couple of weeks but i think jose or kitty comes through pitches well for the astros tonight today and i think the astros come away with a three games to one win in this series. Hopefully it goes five, and hopefully we do get to see some baseball today. Answering the important questions in our live stream, Patrick wants to know, is that dude drinking wine? I'm going to assume that's probably me with the clear glass. Now it's just the clear glass.

They sent me to drink this nice coffee. It is delicious. I'm not cool enough to drink wine. I've decided that years ago. It's not for me. Let's move on to the Rays and Red Sox, where things are chaotic right now. The pitching matchup is the old TBD versus Eduardo Rodriguez. And because of the way things unfolded for the Rays in Game 3,

it's a little bit more of a cluster than it ordinarily would be. They've got some guys that pitched yesterday that threw more than they were expected to, Waka threw a ton of pitches in Game 2. A lot of questions here as to how the Rays are going to navigate this, probably like a full-on bullpen game with the hope of extending the series and then getting five plus from Shane McClanahan in game five and of course that day of rest before game five will go a long way but I'm also curious if the Red Sox can use the quick hook on Eduardo Rodriguez again like they did earlier in the season you know given the way they've had to

use their pitching over these last couple of games. I'm checking right now. Did he pitch in the first game? Yeah. So that's one, two, three, three days of rest. Yeah, and he didn't pitch deep in that game. So, I mean, he could pitch deeper this time around. He could.

I mean, the main issue, I mean, they're both depleted at this point in time, right? Both teams are going with plan B or C, I guess, depending on how you view it. Because Pavetta was the reason. I know the rule is going to take a lot of the highlight away, but Pavetta is the reason the Red Sox won that game. He really is. What he was able to do, the innings he was able to eat up, especially because they had used so many relievers. I think with Tampa Bay, they're going to have McHugh start today.

Right. And then kind of piece it together from there. The issue there is that they wanted to stay away from like Luis Patino and they used him yesterday. I'm sure there were a lot of guys that they would have preferred to not pitch in that 13 inning game. Can they use anybody they used yesterday again? I mean,

I think so. They have to, I mean, I mean, anybody like that, they like, I'm talking about like drew Rasmussen, Luis Patino.

Like, do they have anybody that can give them innings? Well, yeah, here's, here's what's going to happen, right? The guys are all going to come in and they're going to,

most of these guys are going to tell Kevin cash. They're good to go because their season's on the line so it doesn't matter if they're available not available it's matter if they've never gone this deep whatever like it's the old baseball adage of you baby pitchers in september to abuse them in october right like none of these rules apply anymore if you're kevin cash you got to go out by out not even inning by inning out by out i know it's a different manager and i agree with you but i did ask um gabe kapler about this a little bit i said like is there any sort of go time like does do you you spent all season like you know load management and like you know let's try to uh make sure everyone's healthy and like does all that go out the window in October?

And he had an interesting answer. He said that we don't only baby them to keep them from being hurt. We don't do all that only to keep them from being hurt. We also do that because there's optimal performance. So there is that, okay, we could pitch between patino and rasmussen today um and maybe they wouldn't get injured and that and maybe it'd be fine but will we get optimal performance from from drew rasmussen or at least patino today well you have to ask yourself are they better options than your other guys so like like, you can't even look at it like that.

Like nobody is a hundred percent right now. Anyway, everyone you're running out there, whether they're fresh or not fresh, isn't fresh. They're not. So, I mean, I, I, I agree with that. I think if you're Kevin Cash, you're like, is a 80% Patino better than an 80% Dave Robertson, right? Like you have to kind of look at it like that and weigh it. We're going to see guys stretch to the limit. Otherwise, they go home. They have the entire offseason to rest their arms.

My guess is Patino is back out there and that they're just using Patino again. I kind of think not Rasmussen. I don't know. Rasmussen was in longer and threw more pitches. Rasmussen threw 33 pitches. David Robertson threw 40. I don't think those guys are pitching today. Fleming only threw 12 so they can get bulk from him. Kittredge will be

out there. He only threw 16. Fairbanks threw 19. Feierheisen threw 11. Whistler threw seven pitches to get four outs. So a lot of those guys actually are options. Again, Chargois, maybe a little more borderline. Just wondering who gets two. Maybe nobody gets two. Nobody. I think you go yeah you go you go out by out some guys might not even do a full some guy might say i'm here for i'm ready for two outs right and you use them for two outs that's what we're going to see here this is essentially compelling to watch i have to admit it's not going to be i mean it's going to be like that on boston side a little bit too i mean poveda did eat up a lot of innings but eduardo rodriguez was

not very good chris sale they clearly don't have a whole lot of faith in Chris Sale right now, and rightfully so. I think the first sign of trouble they pull, Eduardo, just to answer the question you started with, DVR. First sign of trouble. But you know, there's one thing that's a little bit different about today that was different than yesterday uh if you win game three like if you if it's tied and you win game three to go up to one uh that win puts you in a situation where you win the series 70 of the time no so it was 54 of the time they kept saying on the broadcast i was going off of sarah lang tweet. They said multiple times on Fox, it's actually not that big of an indicator.

It's only 54% of the time the Game 3 winner wins in a tied series in a best of five. Wow. I wonder where Sarah Lang's... Anyway, it seemed like they were playing that way. They both used their Game 4 starters. It was a very tense game that seemed like they were playing that way. They both used their Game 4 starters. It was a very tense game that seemed like it might change

the series in a big way. I do actually, after that game, before that game, I thought, I think the Rays still have this in hand. Then after that game, I'm kind of like, are the Rays not not gonna win this one

there we go so since 2013 so i think you have to go with the recency bias just because pitching and pitchers are used a little differently right we didn't have that many five game series so it's not like there's a large history that we're missing if we just do 2013 i don't know yeah i don't know where she got that stat but yeah it was weird because i thought it was going to be more too but it's really was going to be more too, but it's really not. To be honest, it's different than a game seven when you go down 3-0 and you have to win four games. You only have to win back-to-back games.

We sit here and we're like, what an insurmountable lead. They only have to win back-to-back games. Right. It just seems... There's the numbers and the fact of it, but also I'm a human being and I have an emotional reaction to this too,

which is like, Jesus, that Red Sox offense. It's loaded. I mean, it was dangerous all along because they don't strike out as much as a team like the Yankees. They can put runs on the board. And it was a secondary contributor that played the hero on Sunday with Christian Vasquez hitting the walkkees. They can put runs on the board and it was a secondary contributor that played the hero on Sunday with Christian Vasquez hitting the walk-off, but the weird play, of course, we referenced this in passing earlier, was the ball that Kevin

Kiermaier hit that hit the base of the wall or bounced out the base of the wall, then hit Hunter Renfroe and went out of play over the outfield wall. By rule, it was determined to be a ground rule double, which meant Yanni Diaz didn't get to score from first, which he would have easily if the ball hadn't gone into play. And this is just one of those things.

The umpires, the crew, did what they were supposed to do based on the rules that were written. And this play is one of those things that I think it was like John Hart or somebody on the panel who's been around the game forever or someone said, Have you ever seen that before? No. And John Hart's been in baseball for 50-plus years. It was one of those plays that you don't even conceive of needing a rule for it clearly there will be a rule probably put into play but I was wondering what should the penalty be in that situation like if you're making a new

rule it's going to be called the Hunter Renfro rule where an outfielder bobbles a ball out of play over the outfield wall as an automatic triple? Where do you draw the line on something like that? Here's the through line for me, actually connecting both the Grondahl play and this play, is that they both basically ruled that there was no intent

on the player's part. Yeah, I don't think Hunter Renfro intentionally bobbled the ball out of play. I mean, he did with his hip. It would be a crazy move if he, if he could have done that intentionally. Right. Yeah. But you could like soccer,

you could volley the ball over, or you could slap it with your glove, which would be intentional. Yeah. But I think, I think intent is really, really hard to gauge. And I think in these cases,

it seemed pretty clear, except we talked about how Grondahl took the inside lane and maybe there was some intent at the beginning not at the moment but at the beginning he kind of put himself in that position so uh i would i'm in favor of fewer rules that have any uh sort of need to judge intent yeah it's unfortunate because i would love for umpires to make a discretion call but imagine if the red sox lose that game last night because the umpires discretion said that the race score to run right people would be just as mad so i agree yeah i would say like if you hit something out like it's like if you threw the ball like what happens when you throw the ball past the first baseman they just give you the

next base right it goes into the dugout if If it's out of play, then yeah. You're talking about a ball that's out of play? Yeah, like if you throw a ball out of play. Yeah, they get the extra base. They get the extra base. So I think just apply that. That was clearly a double with runners at second and third. It's a ground rule double plus a base for the hitter hitting it out.

Right, because there was a lead runner. The runner scores. Yeah. What sucked is he clearly would have scored very easily. Like it, the bobble took place like after he was like basically rounding third. And so I don't know. I don't know what you do to that rule.

Except maybe you judge it by when the deflection happens, then they get to from where the runner is. Right. Why couldn't you do that? I did a split screen and Yandy hadn't crossed third yet because that was kind of when the ball landed. You know, I don't know. He was pretty close.

I thought he was close to third. And just, I mean, the other thing that you could do is just give it all discretion to the umpire and just be like, wow, he would have totally scored on that play. So like he scores. That's tough. I mean, I think if he's closer to third you give him a base beyond that maybe right you give him a base beyond that i think adding one kind of using the same principles as

the ball out of play and in that case over the outfield wall if it bounces over we know it's a ground rule double or automatic double okay add one that. You get a triple almost every single time then, so then you're good. That kind of covers that situation in the unlikely event that it ever happens again. But it also prevents the possibility of a very savvy outfielder knocking a ball over the wall. What is Rojo Paul talking about? Tommy Pham in 2019? I don't know. was there another issue here's the thing that series has already had and somebody adam be asking is there any other diamond you could think of to have that ground rule double happen no no because it's only

five feet there in fenway park um so there's not too many other stadiums where that's even a chance that that happens um but this series has been marred by weird plays because it's interesting when it happens at Fenway Park it's quirky. When it happens at Tropicana Field it's like, oh, they need to blow up Tropicana Field. It's a monstrosity. You either like quirky fields or you don't like quirky fields and you don't get to pick

and choose, guys. You don't get to be Eno. You gotta pick a side. Apparently this has happened multiple times in the last 10 years. It's according to the real Cobus. Ben Revere, Tommy Pham, Yassiel Puig. So our memories must be totally shot. It could happen at Dodger Stadium.

It could. Yep. Lower wall down there. Yep. That's a good call. There's a few random places where it could happen. But today's game is going to be just a disaster from a pitching standpoint. It's going to be back and forth pitching changes it's going to be probably

six five you know the highest higher scoring game i would think given the strength of these offenses and given the state of both pitching staffs and in part of how we got here too chris sale got through one inning gave up five runs in game two i mean the red sox came back and won that game shame boz didn't make it out of the third. That game was 8-5 after five innings for the Red Sox after they were down 5-0 in the first. I picked that game for the Red Sox because Chris Sale was starting it.

And I was like, oh, well, there goes that pick. At the end, I was like, okay. Not how I drew it up in my head. The two key pitchers, though, for the Red Sox in the series, of course, Tanner Houck was fantastic in that game. Nick Pavetta was fantastic in the game three victory.

Houck went five in his game. Houck went four, or Pavetta went four. The quality of those guys in that duration is kind of optimal. They're not necessarily guys that go six plus, but at four or five innings, they can be really effective. I think the other thing that surprised me so far in the series, Brandon Lau over 14 was six strikeouts.

He'd taken a step forward again, offensively in the regular season. And so far has been a ghost in the series. Yeah. Now if, if the Rays win tonight, does it can Hawk, Hawk,

is it Hawk? Is that how you say it? Hauk pitch game five? He could be a factor in five, couldn't he be? I think so. Yeah. See, this is where, to me, last night's game was so important, no matter what the percents say, because even if the Rays win tonight, I think the Red Sox are almost set up better.

And we unfortunately, I know I'm going off on not exactly what you asked, Derek, at all, but we talked about, like, how the Rays don't have those starters anymore that they can rely on for at least, like, five innings. And this is where it might hurt, right? Like, even if they scrape by today, the bullpen's going to be straight up exhausted. They get one travel day to get to Tampa Bay, still straight up,

still exhausted. That's the kind of thinking I was having during that game. I was like, wait, what? Like they don't even have like the, the Tyler glass now, you know,

where it's like, Oh, but they'll have Tyler glass now for four innings or five. You know what I mean? They don't, they don't have it. I guess Shane McClanahan would start game five. Yeah.

And they would need him to go five plus because everyone would be tired as hell. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't know you know i see i'm i'm fully on nerd status now we are one yeah i'm definitely more nervous for the rays winning the series than i thought i thought before that game i really had them still in hand in the series but i think it does speak to some

of the uh questions that we had were like is this bullpen as good as it was last year um and i think that the answer is no yeah yeah and we i think this is why the managers managed last night like it was a winner go home game if you use that many pitchers even in the regular season managers talk all the time like that's a tough game to lose it's one thing to lose it's another to lose in 13 innings when you use up that many guys. Using everybody, yeah. Like, it just crushes you for the next day. Had they lost in nine innings, okay, right?

It would have hurt, but okay. But because the later it got, that's why the Red Sox were like, we're using Pavetta because losing this game is going to really suck. Yeah. We're on to predictions. How does it play out today? I just expected total debacle in terms of a million pitching changes and a lot of runs. It might be fun.

It might take a long time. It might be fun. I think the Red Sox actually finish it off. I think the Rays are just on the ropes right now. They're too... They're both exhausted in the bullpen, but I do think the point Eno just made about that bullpen, it's not quite at the level it was at last year, and that might be shining through a little bit.

I think we all probably underestimated the quality of the Red Sox, not only at the beginning of the season, but even going into the postseason. Yeah, I think you are right. I think it's going to be Red Sox-Astros in the ALCS, and I hate it, but I love it. That'll be an interesting one. I mean, those are the two teams that have most recently gotten in trouble for sign

stealing. People don't remember the Red Sox one as much. No. They tend to brush that one aside. I'm loving this. I have my dog in here with me today, and there's a dog barking outside. It's only a matter of time before Hazel joins the show.

So brace yourself for dog barking. It seems like it's only a few minutes away. Let's go to the Giants and Dodgers series and go back to Logan Webb's Game 1 gem in that series. 21 swings and misses, had a 40% CWS with the change, the slider, and the sinker. That's called strikes and whips. That's CSW. I am in need of more coffee. But Logan Webb came through at a time when, look, I thought he'd go five or six and pitch well, but he was outstanding. He had a playoff start to remember, an all-time great start for a franchise that has plenty of great playoff performances.

Unfortunately, the Dodgers got a hold of the weaker Giants relievers in Game 2 and quickly leveled the series, but this one's tied up as we go into Game 3. I thought Kevin Gossman actually pitched well enough to keep the Giants in it in game two before things really unraveled. I think it was Dominic Leon where things started to turn. But I've been sitting here all morning just trying to figure out how are the Giants going to possibly steal game three with Alex Wood and Max Scherzer as the pitching matchup? I think they can. Scherzer's been kind of hittable. He didn't look great in the wildcard game. That was like pure guts that he pitched on to get as deep as he did he had two bad starts to close

out the year um I think they can get to the the Dodgers here my main issue is the Dodgers lineup kind of woke up in game two and so that is a little terrifying um I agree with you on Gossman what was nice about Gossman was they were going to hit for him in what like the second inning third inning um in that first game. And then he was able to kind of write the course and, you know, eat up retire like 10 straight at one point. So that was good. I did not expect the start that we got.

Nobody did right from Webb, maybe not even him. But I think when you look at this matchup, I don't think the starters are going to factor in as much as the bullpens. I think this is going to be a big late inning whose bullpen is going to blink first kind of game. And those are just hard to predict. You know, I picked the Giants to win the series. It's tied right now.

I'm going to stick with the Giants because I'm not going to go back. I'm not a waffler. But I don't know. I don't think that Scherzer is going to be this. He hasn't really been Scherzer's going to be this. He hasn't really been his dominant self as of late at all. So I don't know.

I think he's going to be hittable. I think the Giants are going to be on it. So I don't know. We'll see. I mean, if he reprises his wildcard game situation, I wouldn't be too surprised. Five or six innings, one run. I mean, that's really good work,

but I don't think it'll be like eight innings no runs you know 12 strikeouts kind of deal so um you know if he does that then it will be i think then brit will be right it'll be uh it'll be up on the bullpens because i think wood can pitch you know to like you know two or three runs and four or five innings right so if we're talking as 3-1 Dodgers in the fifth and the starting pitchers are out, that's – I mean, that's – it's gettable for the Giants. They have to do something before they get to Trinan and Jansen. So they'll have to do – like it'll be all about the sixth inning,

sixth and seventh inning. If the Giants can score in the sixth and seventh inning. Then they can they can push this game. Otherwise, they'll lose for sure. I mean, I would pick the Dodgers in this game for sure. I feel like I just reflexively pick the Dodgers against everybody because they're favored all the time. But Scherzer's last three postseason starts, including this year's wildcard game. He's allowed a total of five earned runs over 14 in the third innings.

I think that's the number that surprises me the most. It's only been 14 in the third innings over those starts. Hasn't gone deeper than five in any of those outings. So if the Giants can at least get him out around the end of the fifth inning, get a shot at maybe one of the weaker Dodgers relievers, that would be a big key, I think, to them possibly stealing this game. But I just try to imagine Alex Wood keeping the Dodgers offense quiet

and having a hard time doing it. Well, there's a big caveat on Scherzer's last couple starts because he couldn't move his neck in the one before the wildcard game, which was the 2019 Game 7 World Series. So it is a little bit of an anomaly. I don't know. Here's why I think it could happen

because it's the playoffs and there's literally no predicting. There's just no predicting. We see crazy stuff happen all the time. Like Randy Rosarena is the best player on earth in October. So I don't know. I could see it happening. You have to have a game plan and you have to execute.

And I don't know. I feel like Wood, as a lefty, could find a way to keep the Dodgers' bats quiet. I mean, I don't know. I feel like Wood, as a lefty, could find a way to keep the Dodgers' bats quiet. I mean, I don't know. As someone pointed out, the lefties for the Dodgers, though, that he would be quieting or whatever, it's just Corey Seager. Right.

Yeah, the impact of quieting Bellinger is not what it would have been in the past, right? So that changes things a bit. Yeah, it's really strange. I'm expecting the Dodgers to win this game. I don't think the Giants are buried. Obviously, 2-1 wouldn't be the end of it anyway. And we've got a couple suggestions here

for Logan Webb fans. Webb heads from Matt. That's a good one, by the way. We got Webb's Weeples. That's from McCabe. Or Webb's Swarm. Do you guys have a favorite out of those three? I don't know what a Weeple is.

It's people, but with a W. I like Webheads. Webheads seems pretty good. Web heads. Are we three for three on the Dodgers in this particular matchup then? Yeah, I think so. Let's hope the Giants can find a way to make it go five and win game four, but something for tomorrow's show to dig into.

I've been holding back. I put them at the bottom of the rundown for my own sanity, but a good question here from Steven in the live stream. Is this Freddie Peralta start the biggest of DVR's career? Yeah. I would say it probably is. My entire reputation hinges on how Freddy Peralta

pitches in game three of the NLDS. You know what is unfortunate? I feel like no one's talking about this series that much, and it's been such a good series. It's been really good starting pitching on both sides. It's been kind of baseball at its finest. We haven't had to talk about balls deflecting or guys hitting somebody running into the base pass. It's been good, old fashioned, really good pitching.

And starting pitching. They've gotten deeper, right? It's not the whole parade of relievers thing. Yeah, it's been really good. Honestly, it's the game I'm looking forward to the most because I feel like Derek put it last on the rundown, not because he doesn't give it love, but because he's kind of very, very worried about what may happen if Milwaukee goes down in this series. But I think it's going to be a really good game.

I hope it's a good game because I feel like these two teams have really kind of been like old school baseball in a sense, as you said, there's been really deep starting pitching. And now we're going to get a little bit further into those rotations right now. We talked about Morton and freed for the Braves, but okay, they already went right. Like, so, you know, we talked about Burns and Wunder if they're done too. So this to me is kind of a big game from that aspect because i could i can make a case for either team winning this game um and it may not be quite as low scoring it may kind of deviate from what we saw in those first two games um i think somewhat but i don't know is that the one o'clock game is that the game that's like literally an hour after we get off air? Yeah. That's the first game?

The game that will be three innings deep by the time people listen to the podcast version, if not further? Yeah. It's that one. Don't say anything dumb. I mean, I say dumb stuff all the time. I'm used to it. But the Brewers' offense has had some of the problems it's had throughout the regular season

through these first two games. Really, it came down to a mistake that Charlie Morton made in game one. Roddy Tellez got a hold of a fastball that got too much of the plate, and that was the difference. Both Corbin Burns and Josh Hader were kind of fighting the command a bit in those outings. Burns, of course, settled down for the first couple of innings. Hader was pretty wobbly in game one.

I don't know if that's changes to the baseball or what exactly explains that, but that was pretty weird. Something Will Salmon pointed out in his recap of game two, Brandon Woodruff's 2.86 runs of support is the lowest among qualified starters in the regular season. I assume Jacob deGrom doesn't qualify. And then if he did, he'd probably be number one on that list because Jacob deGrom owns that list thanks to the Mets and incredible offense every time he takes the ball. But Max Reed's been pitching really well that was something David O'Brien had written about going back to late July he's been more efficient less strikeout focused had a good strikeout game in game two quietly I think one of the the better young pitchers in the game

not necessarily an ace or top 10 sort of guy but someone that is still showing that he's got a little more ceiling that he could still reach. So much of this matchup for me with Freddy Peralta comes back to the depth in his arsenal and just how different he is now than when he debuted. The pitch breakdown, if you haven't noticed it this year, the four-seamer just over half the time, a slider 26.4% of the time, curveballs just under 11% of the time, and even a change-up for lefties right around 10% of the time as well. He's not fastball Freddy anymore. I think the biggest thing I'm worried about is command, early command, because at times, if he doesn't have his command, the pitch count gets high, and then you do have to turn it over to that bullpen earlier than you want to. Otherwise, I think Peralta is better suited for this opportunity now than he was at any other point in his career.

Yeah, I think he talked at the All-Star game about that slider and said that it's a two-finger grip and he stays through it. It's a pretty interesting pitch. I think it might be kind of a cutter to him, but that's what

he figured out that made him take that leap this year. One thing that I didn't realize because I didn't have that many shares in fantasy is he kind of struggled on the stretch. Yeah, ever since he had that little shoulder injury. Yeah, and there's been a little bit of a drop

in his fastball velocity. I mean, in, you know, what is this? Three straight starts. He didn't get out of the fourth inning in early September, late August. The good news is the VLO came back for his last start to some extent. But actually, no, no, it didn't. 92.3 and 92.9 those are concerning numbers

for me yeah well it's going to force them probably to go to those secondaries a little bit more often a big part of what makes freddie perlte's fastball so good is hitters just don't see it particularly well especially righties because kind of hides the ball behind his head gets a lot of extension but that missing jumps out ofow is definitely a concern. Sam in the chat, yeah, I miss Victor Robles being brought up each podcast, as Steven said. All that's missing from this series for DVR is Victor Robles. We all want more Victor Robles in our lives.

Except Britt, she's covered him, so she's seen more Victor Robles than most people need to see in a lifetime, having covered the Nats. But yes, I'm here for more Victor Robles. But Ian Anderson, you know, the big story for me is how bad the Brewers offense has been. Yeah. And they have to prove something because Ian Anderson is gettable.

You know, he makes mistakes. There are going to be some pitches that they should hit hard. So far, Rowdy's the only one who's done it. Yeah. That's exactly what I was going to say. If they don't win here, they're in big trouble, right?

You could re-rack your start. Who would be four? I think they'd give Waskery Noah some innings, wouldn't they? No. In the next start? No. They just come back with Fried. Morton.

Morton would be on short rest because you get only one off day. Maybe. It'd be on short rest. You could do Morton for four and then Enoa for two. It would be something like that, or even more for Inouye since he could be fully rested. I think there's a couple other interesting things here in the comments that are worth pointing out.

Steven pointing out the Braves, he has been punished for playing this outfield, which defensively is a bad outfield. You don't put balls in play, though. It doesn't test it. I've been kind of impressed by Jorge Soler, though, just in terms of the quality of his plate appearances. I think he looks like he's faster than his sprint speed numbers. Obviously gets on base, been leading off in the series. Just one of those guys that

could end up being a pretty interesting value in free agency during the offseason. And then there's a lineup decision in here. Eduardo Escobar on the bench. Luis Urias in at third base today. So it gives them one guy that can come off the bench whenever they need someone who will stay in the game and probably move some guys around defensively.

But a little surprising that Eduardo Escobar not in there against Ian Anderson today. I mean, that's like searching around, searching for the right tool in the toolbox while you're looking the other way. You know what I mean? Like get the hand behind you and you're like, where is that?

box while you're looking the other way. You know what I mean? Like get that, the hand behind you and you're like, where is that? I mean, the, the, the big answer is Christian Yelich.

Like, yeah, I mean, any day now, any day now, it'd be great to get Yelich back to something close to the 2018 and 2019 form. But I don't know.

I don't know if he's walking through that door. The hype video I thought was maybe the beginning of the turnaround and hasn't happened to the first two games of the series. So let's get to your predictions. I know, Britt, you originally had Atlanta in five, I'm assuming as a split 1-1 in Milwaukee went, you're probably not changing your tune on that. Right. Yeah, this is a coin flip of a game to me. Like, I wouldn't be surprised if Milwaukee wins this game. But like Eno said, I think until I can be convinced that the Brewers' offense is for real, that they're back, that there's some signs of life somewhere. It doesn't have to be Yellich.

It could be some random. It could be Colton Wong. It could be, like, some random guy, right? This is the playoffs. Anything can happen. But I think it's going to be Atlanta. The series is now in Atlanta, right? That's a tough place. The people are going to be very excited.

I got to stick to the Braves. I can't change now. I haven't seen enough from Milwaukee to make me flip. I had the Brewers in three. Whoa. Because you guys were killing me on the waff in three. Whoa. Because you guys were killing me on the waffling thing.

It's our fault, EVO. Yes, it's your fault. I'm searching the leaderboard here for some stats to help me feel good, but this makes me feel worse. I wanted to say, Milwaukee, with that lineup in September,

the offense was better. But now I remember they couldn't score any runs in September. Their WRC Plus was 88. Yeah, for the entire second half, they were resting. They were banged up a little bit in September. And they were facing the Cardinals every other day, it seemed like. They, I think, were just a shade below league average, but still not a playoff caliber offense

during that entire second half. So this is the problem for them. I think when they get runners on base, which they did in game two, they have to cash them in. They don't have the luxury of stranding a lot of runners because they don't get enough guys on base in the first place.

So it's going to be all about timely hitting, clutch hitting, our everyone's favorite word this time of year. I'm going to stay with my guys. I'm going to say the Brewers get the win here in Game 3. Do I feel good about it? No, of course not. Am I going to be sweating bullets the entire game?

Yeah. Why wouldn't I be? So, you know, you're bailing on the Brewers just to set the record straight? Put Steven's comment up. You're bailing, right? No, put Steven's comment up. So if Hito is wrong, he's still right. And when he is wrong, it's DVR and Britt's comment. You're bailing, right? No, but Steven's comment. So when Hito is wrong, he's still right. And when he is wrong, it's DVR and Britt's fault.

That's exactly right. Absolutely. Can we get that as the new background of the show? Yeah, we should probably put that as our banner on YouTube. El Capitano 2109. Lauer going to pull up Pavetta today. They kind of need it. If Freddie only goes three or four,

which based on the end of the season, health of the shoulder, velocity might be part of the script. If you get Lauer out there for a long run of innings and relief, that could go a long way. They used Adrian Hauser as part of their bridge in game one from Burns to Hader, and that worked really well too. So clearly they are trying to stay away from some of those soggy relievers that they don't want to throw out there

in key spots. And I like the way they're doing it so far. I'm going Brewers. Going Brewers. I'm saying all that rest, Freddy Peralta has had a lot of rest since his last start. I'm saying he comes out,

averages 94 plus on the fastball and shoves for at least four innings. I think if they can get four innings of shoving from him, I think Lauer would only have to do an inning or two. Brent Suter. Yeah. Hurt. Hurt?

Yeah. Oblique. Dang it. Yep. So who's the middle? I love Jake Cousins and I love Hader. Who comes after Lauer? Well, you could throw Gustave out there.

Oh, and Boxberger. Strickland somewhere in there. No. No. That fastball is as straight as the street. That guy makes me so nervous. In 19, he didn't even make the Nats bullpen, just to give you an idea.

He gives up so many homers. I really don't want the Brewers season to come down under Strickland getting people out. I don't want to talk about that. Peralta for four, Lauer for three, Cousins, Hader. Brewers 11, Braves 1. No, that would still be Brewers 3, Braves 1. I'll try.

I'll just try to be my own hype man. It's going to be okay. And again, the Brewers pitching has come through, as Steven points out. Atlanta isn't piling up hits and doing a bunch of damage so far either. So it's going to be, I think, a very stressful postseason, so long as the Brewers are in it for Brewers fans, because they're just not built to pile up runs. You play a lot of good close games. You play good defense. Your pitching comes through. It's good to have a team built that way. It's not relaxing to have a team that

is built that way, but we need to go. Hopefully, a lot of you out there got to take the day off and enjoy this because the four playoff game days are pretty rare. Or you're still working from home and can have the quad box up in the background. Yeah, get those games all lined up however you like them. 50% off a subscription to The Athletic, by the way, at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. So all the great playoff coverage that we have on the site, everything we do, all available there. If you're watching us on YouTube, take a moment to barrel up on that like button.

Be sure to subscribe to the channel to be notified every time we go live. Thank you for watching. be a time where I celebrate and drink a glass of wine. I don't know. I still don't think I'll become cool enough to do that, but that is going to wrap things up for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening.