Rates & Barrels - When to Sell in Dynasty League, Top Prospects Targets & Young Major Leaguers on the Fringe

Episode Date: May 12, 2022

Eno and RotoWire's James Anderson to discuss when to decide to sell in dynasty leagues, which prospects will be big movers on his prospect list next week, what his ranking process is like, how organizational context matters for prospects, and end with a would you rather between two veteran pitchers who have been pitching well. Rundown -Deciding when to sell in your dynasty league -What types of prospects to rebuild around -James Anderson’s top prospect target -Young major leaguers on the fringe that might take a job -Organizational contexts for prospect ranking -More Twins depth chart discussion -Three top-ten prospect outfielders? -Learning from Jeremy Pena and Hedbert Perez -Moxie, pitch mix, and minor league Stuff+ -Max Meyer vs. Grayson Rodriguez Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first six months: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello and welcome to Rates and Barrels. I'm sorry it is my voice and not the sweet dulcet tones of Derek Van Ryper. sweet, dulcet tones of Derek Van Ryper. I'm sure there'll be other moments when you'll notice non-smooth transitions and general blabbing of the mouth without Derek here to tell me to shut up. So I apologize ahead of time for that, but I do not apologize for our guest today. Really happy to have a longtime friend and co-manager of our Devils Rejects team,

James Anderson from Rotowire on. How are you doing, James? Welcome to the show. I'm doing great. Thanks for having me, buddy. I'm still reveling in last night's Bucs win, but this is going to be fun. Yeah, yeah. I enjoy watching them.

Giannis with the blood streaming down his face, just taking on the whole team. I love those little finger rolls over three people. It's pretty amazing. But here on the baseball front, we're going to talk a little bit about the minor leagues. James does a great job covering prospects, along other things. It's not just prospects. uh james does a great job uh covering prospects along other things it's not just prospects but uh uh we'll talk about uh how uh i'll finish first and he'll finish second in labor uh this year uh maybe a little bit of that uh we'll talk about some movers on his uh rankings um that that'll be coming out shortly um he does some really nice, really deep dynasty rankings and prospect rankings that will be useful. I think because, you know, this is an interesting thing.

This is, it's not on the rundown, but let's talk about this because we are in Devil's Rejects right now. We are like, I think somewhere around six, fifth or six, you know, depending on the day. I think somewhere around six, fifth or six, you know, depending on the day. And, you know, I think that there are other people who are in that sort of spot where it's fifth and sixth out of 20. So we're definitely, you know, among the contenders. But I think there are a lot of people who are in this spot where it's like, when do you make the decision to go for it and acquire or to, to start selling off. And there is probably some advantage to make that decision quicker in terms of what you might get on the market,

you know, for your players. On the other hand, you might miss out on a run. So you can talk about within the context of our team or just generally like, you know, in your dynasty leagues, how much longer

are you going to give it before you sell or definitively buy uh yeah i mean i think it depends on sort of the dynasty format a little bit too uh like i know dvr commissions the that maki league uh or i think i think that's what it's called but um like it's it's a league where you can quickly rebuild via trades um and in those types of leagues i think there's a ton to be gained by by uh rebuilding uh sooner than later is that uh is that because of the is it something about the format or is it because it's a contract league, so it's like, you know, you can only keep guys for so long, so that makes it easy to kind of rebuild over the span of like a year or two.

But like in our league, Devils Rejects, rebuilding, I think, in this league would take maybe four years. There are guys in that league who have been rebuilding the whole time I've been there. Yeah it's just like because it's you keep each team keeps 28 guys and there's no no limit right and the and it's just not a league where um like obviously the the elite prospects have have a ton of value but but having the 60th best prospect or just having a bunch of prospects from 50 to 150 in this league

just isn't that advantageous because each team's only keeping 28. And so I just think – I mean, you obviously have to be realistic with yourself about just sort of how close you actually are. Like the worst place to be usually is kind of in that middle of the pack range in your league. A little bit where we are. It's a little bit tough. I mean, we're staring at Cody Bellinger being like, do you have another gear, please? yeah we i think we're just trying to like we have too many good uh players who are in their primes to think about rebuilding because we just um like we're in striking distance and i mean this this league pays out i think what like one through five and yeah if we just if we can catch some

breaks from a health standpoint uh like last year we Last year, we could not stay healthy at all. I think we've got to just keep fighting, keep pushing. If we were in 12th place in this league, you'd have to look at the roster a little bit, but that's, that's not where you want to be. I think you want to be. And if you are in that situation and you know, you're below halfway, like now seems like an okay time to start, you know, talks, right?

Like it seems like, you know, if you're in 12th now and you just, and you're looking at your team, you're like, Oh, there's no, Oh, this guy's been hurt or that guy's been out or whatever. And he's coming back. Like if there's no sort of narrative for you to follow, then I think it does make some sense. What's your favorite kind of rebuilding strategy? Is it, you know, quality quantity? Is there, is there, do you like to identify like one player? I remember some point Ozzie Albies and Cody Bellinger were two prospects

I just really wanted. I gave up a lot to get them, and it felt good at the time. It feels okay now, but, you know, I've also in that league, Tom Trudeau traded away like Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Nola and somebody else for Ronald Acuna Jr. when he was like in high A, and I thought that was insane. But, you know, he gets the last laugh yeah i'm 100 percent uh quality over quantity on those types of trades where you're um selling

your old guys for young guys like you trading for prospects like the bus i think people always in dynasty underrate the bust rate of prospects that are kind of in that like 15 to 50 range like they just think of these guys it's like oh well this guy's going to be good and this guy's going to be good and this guy's going to be good like realistically if you have two prospects who are between like 15 and 30 one of them is going to bust at least. So really going for those, those high end guys in those trades. And then I think there's a lot to be said for being active on picking up these sort of under hyped guys that are,

that are possibly breaking out of the big league level on bad teams. If you stay active on waivers and you're focused more sort of on skills than role at the time, just adding those guys, that can help in a rebuild too. Yeah, so in a practical scenario, you might do that deal where you're giving up a Goldschmidt, Nola type. You're giving up two or three players, and you might be giving up for one

prospect. And, you know, I don't know how much of your top five you want to give, but I think top fives are actually probably the easiest part of the rankings, right? So who are your top five right now? I mean, I think like to me, if I were rebuilding like Corbin Carroll would just be my dream target to sort of build around. Like, I think he's kind of the next big thing, really. Just kind of a perfect fantasy skill set. 30 steal upside, 25 to 30 homer upside, really elite hit tool, good on base skills. Like the type of guy who could be just a perennial top five pick in fantasy. upside, really elite hit tool, good on base skills.

The type of guy who could be just a perennial top five pick in fantasy. You obviously would have to pay a ton to get him right now. Nobody's sleeping on Corbin Carroll, but he's the type of guy that I'm just extremely confident in. So give up an old pitcher,

an old bat, maybe a third piece and get Corbin Carroll back. What's nice about that is you get those two roster spots and play with those two roster spots, you know, pick up, you know, pick up guys that don't don't have the shine. You know, maybe like a Glenn Otto, you know, a young a young pitcher that, you know, could go on a tear that, you know, might look good in the pitching plus model. I don't know. Do you think of a young major leaguer that's sort of on the outside of a job right now but could break out? Could you pick up like edwin

rios is your league that right yeah probably not i mean i think this is the time of year where it depends on the depth of your league of course all those guys probably gotten scooped up already like um like i i love clay holmes like long term um like he's like maybe my favorite reliever in baseball right now but i think he's probably already been picked up in Dynasty Leagues and stuff. It's like Owen Miller, if you could have added him first week of the season. Those types of guys. Yeah, I wonder if there's some lurking on some bad teams here.

I mean, a jury could bust out into a regular playing time. I'll give you like a super, like, I don't even necessarily believe in this guy, but Jack Sawinski with the Pirates. Right. Someone who's just like just someone who's getting run. Like just, you know, you can pick up the flavor of the month you know and you know like if you picked up so insky and he turns into schwindel and i'm just saying that because of the letters in their name i don't know anything about swinsky yet but uh and he turns into schwindel then maybe you have another piece to trade in the offseason uh just because he's he's he's

busting into playing it and and for those of for those of us who are listening who are in more shallower dynasty leagues, I think like a Diego Castillo or Michael Chavis. I like Richie Palacios with the Guardians a little bit. I think he just got sent back down. But those types of guys, like the guys that are either hanging out or not hanging out. Yeah, knocking on the doorstep a little bit. I think he just got sent back down. But those types of guys, like the guys that are either hanging or knocking away. Yeah, knocking on the doorstep a little bit. And maybe you get lucky. Maybe there's a trade

in the Guardians and he gets a spot somehow out of it where he gets traded. So yeah, into that sort of generally. But then specifically as you are, how do you make your... How are you, you're doing an update right now? Like how, what's the process for you?

It's looking through stats, texting people, like what's the. Yeah. Like I've had a lot of people sort of reaching out, like asking for like who are going to be the biggest risers, like that type of thing. I thought I could ask you. risers like that type of thing uh i'm gonna ask you well like it's it's very easy for me to say like who um you know like which guys that are in my top like 150 now are gonna be moving up like that part of it's easy but i haven't even sat down and started kind of crafting the rankings yet. I'm still like, I'm in this sort of period. I'm really just scouring for information on, you know,

which guys are breaking out, like getting familiar with these guys. And then probably starting on like monday of next week i will actually be um working on the actual rankings um so i'm still sort of been um talk to people watch video um look at stats mode on a lot of these guys just getting myself familiar with them and then I'll be kind of actually crafting the rankings this upcoming week. So who are you hearing good things about? Well, like, you know, I mentioned Corbin Carroll, but like Jordan Walker with the Cardinals is a guy that's, I think, like top 30 for me now, but might be top seven or eight on the update.

He he's kind of, he just looks like a phenom got a super aggressive assignment to double a as a 19 year old. And he's handled it better than I would have ever imagined. Robert Hassel and Michael Harris. And Walker's still playing. Is he playing short? I think he's playing third.

He's playing third, okay. I mean, there's no chance he would end up at short if that is where he's playing right now. No, it's third. It's third. So what's the, you know, do you ever think about, I mean, I guess you don't really care about that for your rankings, although they are sort of fantasy forward rankings, right? Yeah, but I do care about defense a lot.

But do you also care about, like, what's happening in the major league level? I mean, it's... Is Gorman ahead of him? Not as a prospect. He'll get to the big leagues ahead of him, but he's not as good of a prospect. With a guy that's this sort of elite, the type of guy that only comes around for a team every five or ten years, I just never care about what's blocking them. You just assume they'll make room for them.

Right. If it's a guy... I love Jonathan Aranda and Curtis Meade in the Rays organization, but betting on a Rays infielder to get regular playing time anytime soon. That just really stings for the their value right even brujan right like just yeah you know he's up now and you still don't know how much he's gonna play yeah they're just they've always got they always go like too deep at every position

on the 40 man and um even when the guy's up they're playing like four or five days a week tops until they really really break out unless it's a Wander Franco type. Do you ever notice? Yeah, what's that? Well, like the team context matters for like that type of thing, right? I mean, like most teams, you don't have to worry about that. Do you notice, like do you ever like sort of notice new positions they're playing in the minor leagues and sort of see that as a sign that they might be called up soon like for example let's say

next year jordan walker's at double a and all of a sudden he's playing left field yeah totally uh be like whoa that's that's that's new that's different and if like a good example that is like if if carlos Correa had never gotten injured, I was just going to be constantly keeping tabs on what position Royce Lewis was playing at AAA because he had only been playing shortstop and he can play everywhere. So it's just a matter of when were they going to decide to start playing him at third base.

At second or third, yeah. Yeah, so that's something you're definitely always checking, especially once a guy's at AAA. And Jordan Walker kind of looks like a prototypical right fielder in many ways, and he's got a monster arm. So I could see that being a spot that he might end up. So yeah, that's definitely something to keep an eye on, especially once guys get to AAA. Do you think that Royce Lewis will stay up?

I think if he plays to his potential, I think he will. I think that they're probably very open with him about the fact that we'll see how this goes. You're obviously not going to be playing shortstop once Perea is healthy. Royce Lewis is a better player than Jose Miranda, and he's a better player than Luisa Reyes. So if he hits and he's not just in a real funk at the plate

when Perea gets activated, then I don't see why they would send him down in favor of players that aren't as good as him. But I don't think they would mind sending him down at all if he was struggling. I was a little bit... I had Miranda kind of in a different space in my head, I think. When I started looking at his minor league numbers again,

yes, he has these eye-popping batting averages, but it's mostly kind of a low strikeout rate medium power approach which you know do you have opinions about like how certain skill sets uh poured over to the big leagues and and you know that like that what like how does that rank for you like a kind of like a 12 strikeout rate 180 iso in the minor leagues kind of guy yeah i mean i think it's sort of what what type of trajectory are they on like have they have they only recently sort of started getting the power which to be fair to miranda you know the better power numbers are recent yeah Yeah. My big question with Miranda

is he's kind of in that Willie Calhoun range of a defender where there's always going to be pressure on his bat. That's where defense does really matter, especially if you're comparing Miranda

and Boyce Lewis, where Lewis is going to be a really good defender at the positions other than shortstop. We saw that in the Arizona Fall League a couple years ago, where he was just playing all over the place and looking really good. Miranda, I think there's a chance... You don't want to be playing Miranda at third is what I'm hearing. No. You want to play him at first base or DH. Basically, the Luis Araya's problem. You don't want to be playing him anywhere either.

I think Miranda had sort of earned the opportunity ahead of Lewis because of what he did last year where he just kind of destroyed upper level pitching and put himself in this position. Lewis was way better than Miranda at AAA this year and he's a way better defender. I think it's a really interesting team for me because I find Gio Urshela actually to be a mild buy low. He's got the best swing strike rate of his career, one of the better reach rates

uh chase rates oh you know his barrel rate is one of the best better ones of his career like his strikeout rate is you know like it's it's all looks good except for you know the the batting average and the power so i kind of think i would if i were the twins i'd be running them out there a little bit longer especially since the glove is decent but uh you know when you do have a high end upside in terms of royce lewis and then you know miranda who you know might be a better bat than urshela then you kind of you have these options and then they're kind of just right in front of you it must be a really difficult time to make a decision there um who are some other names that have popped out for you uh so like there's there's these three outfielders uh that we're all top 100 guys and and a couple of them were sort of top 30 guys coming into the year but like robert

hassell uh with the padres michael harris with the braves and pete crowe armstrong with the Braves and Pete Crow Armstrong with the Cubs, they all kind of fit sort of the mold of prospect that I really gravitate towards where people maybe question the power a little bit, but everything else is just off the charts and they're getting to some power. And they're sort of those kind of five-tool-y sort of center field types where you just – the power might be the last thing to show up. Like, I really like those guys, and they're all off to excellent starts. And, I mean, Harris, he's the only one in the upper levels out of the three.

Pete Crowe's at low A. Robert Hasselink's at high A. in the upper levels out of the three. Pete Crowe's at low A, Robert Hasselink's at high A. Harris is at double A, but Atlanta really loves him. They've gone out of their way to not block him long term. I think he'll be up probably for most of next season. He could be up pretty soon, especially since they've been running out some interesting center field options.

Yeah. I mean, they've been playing out of the home center. Yeah, they're they definitely have been going kind of the one year at a time veteran retread types there. And they've been, you know, the buzz around harris you know he's you know david bryan's writing articles about him and then you know yeah there's like he almost sounds he's like almost on that untouchable list when oh yeah you know trades come up and stuff yeah prospects that are as good as him in real life don't really get traded um yeah he he's uh and i i love him because you can just like look at the skill set and it's just like oh man this guy is so good at everything uh his worst thing is hitting for power

but even that like he rates well in terms of hard hit rate and stuff like that and he's got the the 213 iso as a 21 year old at double a right and he just has like he's got the the 213 iso as a 21 year old at double a right and he just has like he's got the the exact sort of skill set that we all are chasing in fantasy yeah would would he kind of maybe go on that corbin carroll list maybe like where you could you could make a big trade for for him yeah like if you if he was the headliner for you and you were selling like a really good veteran big leaguer, I think that's fine. He is better in batting average leagues than OBP leagues.

Yeah, I was looking at the patience. It's not maybe elite. He's a little Tim Anderson-y to me. Good contact, good power. Not necessarily going to wait for the number one pitch. For what it's worth, I wrote this piece about swinging, and we might be in the middle of a little bit of a sea change in the big league level where when you have a home run rate

like you did in 2019, it makes sense to do what Alex Bregman said, which is I only swing at pitches I can homer on. But if the league is actually deadening the ball and that's going to stick around, then you actually want more Tim Anderson types because you want to shorten up. You want swinging. You want singles because you can't wait for that homer as much anymore. You need to kind of start stringing together some hits. So it's interesting to think sometimes about how these prospects interact with

how the you know how the league is changing and what the league wants like if they ban the shift you know won't everybody want lefties yeah um and actually that's that's interesting that you uh what you said about like guys trying to hit for singles because i've actually noticed in some of my research this year that it seems like a lot of even like the best hitting prospects and the minors have really upped their opposite field rate so maybe they're just a lot of teams are sort of teaching these guys like you know don't don't be afraid to just take a single when it's there on the outer corner um so probably play reduce the strikeout rate that's interesting uh but then how does that play with like if they ban the shift and like no no just pull it

everything it's gonna go back well so uh if so if if there's a if they ban the shift aren't like how are they gonna do it so that guys aren't just moving as soon as the guy delivers the pitch? Wouldn't infielders just be breaking in certain directions? I think there's obviously going to be ways to game because you have an analyst, you have an R&D department. As soon as they create new rules, the R&D department goes around and tries to figure out how to you know support them basically right so i guess what i would do if i was if i had to have two guys on the left side of the infield i

would still have my second baseman in kind of as deep as he could be and close to first base as it could be and my short stop would be standing on the bag wherever he's allowed to be and then he would break into that space right he would break into that space past the pitcher on the right side of the of the bag so yeah we you can't and then you can't legislate that you can't be like well you can't go over there like what like i'm not allowed to be over there yeah so it'd be that's that's fun um also uh interesting in this trio of outfielders that you've mentioned is they're you know michael harris there's a kind of a distinct difference between michael harris and pete crowe armstrong in that they're the levels they're at and you know we at devil's rejects in the past have we had – you got to help me remember some of them

because I've always thought like whenever you come up with their name, I'm like, oh, my God, these stats are amazing. Hedbert Perez was the one I remember in A-Ball, but there have been others. What are some of the other names that we picked out? I should dig up our trade history. Yeah, because we've been trading them left and right. Basically, I don't think we've ever regretted trading a guy

in the lower levels of the minors in this league. And part of that is it's not like we're rostering these elite number one overall pick types and then trading them. We're picking up pop up guys. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this is a open universe. That's the difference between Hedberg Perez and Pico Armstrong, right? Well, yeah, I mean, Pico Armstrong was really a high-pedigree draftee who basically missed all of last year with an injury, which is the only reason he's still at low A.

But he's going to be – like, he should already be at high A probably. That won't take very long. But, like, with Hedbert, it was, like like a lot of buzz from what he was doing and like the tricky league where they weren't keeping stats and like what he was doing uh big league spring training and stuff like that and um you know it just it was one of those things where a very talented uh player very like gifted in certain ways as a hitter but he's just been completely unable to make the normal adjustments that the best players make when they go to and that's that's the problem with i mean yes go like if you have those two roster spots after your trade

you know maybe one of them can go to a pop-up guy in a complex league or and or in the dominican or somewhere that's just putting up some bonkers stats it's fine to do that uh but then don't i wouldn't hug that guy too hard you know like if it comes down to a choice about keeping you know and it's him or somebody with a little more pedigree like i think sometimes you trust the scouts and you trust the trust the rankings and don't worry about that guy who has a four 20 batting average in the Dominican league or something, you know? Yeah. And it, and like sort of a prospect, my process for evaluating prospects for,

for dynasty is kind of always evolving. And there definitely was a run there where I i was overvaluing uh those teenagers especially like the international guys who uh because we had just we just kind of come off of that uh one soto where you want to be out in front on a guy that didn't have the pedigree necessarily or didn't have all the buzz and was just rocketing up the way right and it's just uh like there are always going to be those guys you know like like juan franco happened just last year right so there are always going to be those types of guys but i think i over i started overrating the best international signees before they had really proven it.

And so I think you, it's okay to be a little cautious with some of these guys. And it's also the gap, like, because they got rid of all those short season leagues, you're just going to keep seeing a ton of these guys go from complex ball to low a and really struggle because it's just such a massive gap like the pitching like the pitching and the complex leagues is just terrible so anyone that has any sort of hand-eye coordination and power is going to be able to put up crazy numbers there so we just got to kind of be careful to not look at those complex league numbers and assume that it's just going to keep carrying over isn't the complex league a little bit different now than it was uh before they they slimmed down

um the minor leagues aren't isn't it a little bit more crowded uh do they have new rules about how many people can be down there because there was a whole deal um where they just you know eliminated uh you know basically a team a minor league team per organization almost and uh and you know i'd i'd heard from people oh they're just going to throw all those kids down the complex league and the d-backs apparently had you know like 60 people down their complex or something uh are they tightening those rules or or is it pretty crowded down there? What's the complex league like right now? Well, there's some teams.

It's kind of different team to team. Some teams are just really, really invested in that level and just having a bunch of players there and other teams. Like, the Rockies never had a complex team. Like, they had the DSL. I can safely say, don't do what the Rockies do. I can't tell.

Has it worked out for the D-backs? Has there been some shining jewels that have come out of the Complex League recently where we've been like, oh, yeah, it was great that we had 80 people down there? Let me see. Well, Davison De Taylor Santos, um, it was kind of a, a big deal. Uh,

he was a 2019 J two guy. Uh, uh, Christian Robinson would have kind of been a big deal if he hadn't. And Christian Robinson, maybe they were allowed. They, maybe they could like,

you know, there was a whole, there was a whole like personal angle on that's, that's Robinson, right? Where he had stuff he's going on so maybe it allowed them a kind of a place to bring him back into the fold you know your complex things like they they they feed you and stuff right so it's like you know they're not just like hey you know you're living in Modesto now and I think I think a lot of these

these uh they just want to sort of have their guys all around and they might not all be like active um in terms of playing in the the games but they're on the roster quote unquote yeah they're they're always sort of scrimmaging down there and stuff too so like um i think it's just you know be it be at our facility that's that's where they have all the sort of high-end developmental tools and stuff. And they've got all the dieticians and stuff like that. So they want as many of those guys there as they can handle. Yeah.

But, yeah, so I think generally, you know, pick up those high-A pop-ups, low-A pop-ups, complex pop-ups but don't uh don't fall in love too much but you know it is still kind of difficult to kind of you know i think of jeremy pena you know like he's doing so well right now what was what did what was pain to doing on your on your rankings as he came up like how did did he slip between the cracks or was he always prominent? How old is he right now? He's 24. A little bit older than other guys. That would have taken some of the ceiling off of him for some rankers.

Every prospect on their player page has like a graph where I can go and see where I had them ranked. And so Pena was around 300 back in 2019, got up to like 200 the offseason between 2019 and 2020. Then he came off the rankings during the pandemic year um like he was he's a really good example of um a player who legitimately made themselves a better player um when nobody was watching basically uh like he he made his body like like he just showed up uh in 2021 and then he was injured in

2021 too but like he he showed up so much more power yeah yeah he added a ton of good good weight uh during the pandemic and so he got so much better and we didn't really know. I mean, the Astros obviously knew, but we didn't necessarily know how much better he got. 2021. Yeah. And then he, then he even showed up like after he got healthy in 2021, you know,

he put up really good numbers, but like, if you look at his like K to walk in triple a last year, like it wasn't that good. And already at that point, he's 23, you know yeah yeah so he was um let's see so like at the end of last year i had him uh 147

uh which was the highest point i'd ever had him but i didn't bump him inside my top 100 until this past winter when you started seeing a lot of buzz about this is going to be a guy that has a chance to break camp. And then I had him top 30 before opening day, but even that wasn't high enough. You know, I think just getting a when it's a proximity guy who um is as productive as he is i mean like you really can't put a price on that especially rebuilding but like i mean that's what a lot of teams major league teams are trading for right like they want they want a guy who's kind of popped up a little bit but not

a high a they want the guy who's popped up and is doing it a triple a or double a right because you just have so much more confidence in the reality of those numbers yeah yeah i think that's what the a's do most of the time the a's just like oh that guy who's just putting up good numbers this last year in double a you know like we'll take him kevin smith yeah sure yeah they went i mean they went and traded for just a ton of low pedigree pitchers who had put up good numbers at triple a and then they just sort of hoped that like maybe two of the five would turn into like back-end starters for them yeah yeah they're they're they look really uh really weird through the lens of the pitching plus and stuff plus like uh loach has uh really interesting stuff

plus and no command all or has one uh one major league pitch it looks like the slider uh and i'm not sure that he can even like command the rest but he has this reputation as a strike thrower. Just a really weird collection of arms that they put together. And yet, if I look at the guys that have made it in their rotation and are quote-unquote good options now, I'm like, what? I don't think Paul Blackburn is good. Is Paul Blackburn good? I hope he's good. You did. You put some money on him in labor I uh I think

I bid like 28 on him and I all right I got him for 26 in labor and uh the next closest bid was like six or something yeah so I was needed pitching is that what you're saying no you need the pitching? Is that what you're saying? Or no, you have the pitching. Yeah, I have too much pitching. Like I have Winder and Clay Holmes on my bench and I can't really plug them in. But I need, I'm short a couple bats. I've got bats. But yeah, Blackburn, is Cole Irvin good? You know, like they're weird. If you watch them too, you're like, Yeah, it's Cole Irvin good?

They're weird. If you watch them too, you're like, I don't know. They have pitches, but are any of them really good? I think Blackburn's got plus plus Moxie. Moxie! I do think that they have a lot of pitches. Irvin and Blackburn have a lot of pitches. And I think they have decent command of those pitches. And so, I mean, if pitching is like keeping people off balance,

then at least they start with those things. I just sometimes wonder if they have, like, the pitch they need for that out, you know what I mean, or that swing, that strikeout. I don't necessarily see that. But it's really interesting to put that up against Matt Brash, right? Because if you are in love with

the Stuff Plus and the Pitching Plus model, you're like, oh, Matt Brash. He has a 190 slider. I've never seen that before. This is amazing. And you fall in love with him. Then he doesn't have Moxie. He has minus Moxie.

Yeah. Then you're like, well, maybe he only has one breaking ball and he really doesn't command it. I even talked myself into him because of we'd sort of seen like uh like denilson lamette and tyler glassnoe and guys like that uh yeah dominate big league

hitters with the two monster pitches yeah and then now it's and then that kind of it the the interesting test case i think is going to be max meyer to some degree uh because he's got a he's probably got a better change up than um brash and he's got better command than brash but he's still uh really reliant on how good that slider is and how good his fastball is. So I think that'll be a really interesting test case to sort of see how he does over the span of like 12, 20 starts. Yeah, well, that was a really good segue.

I do have a piece coming out tomorrow about minor league numbers. I have minor league stuff numbers for uh the pcl that where max meyer is uh what was your line about the pcl though how many how many top pitching projects does the pcl yeah yeah you were you were like we're only gonna go we're not gonna go past like the top 10 or so i gotta leave something on the bone like well you don't know how much i'm leaving on the bone yeah um but uh max meyer the slider 124 stuff plus uh 110 location like that looks perfect he knows where to put it it's a really good slider what i like is the fastball has a 109 stuff plus 91 locations. So maybe there's some fastball command issues, but it's also a couple of starts of information.

So I don't think I'm ready to run for the Hills yet, but the changeup has good stuff. Plus so I, I see the possibility there for a three pitch guy, the top 10 for and I put no minimums on it because uh there just frankly aren't a lot of guys who pitched a lot of innings um and uh so the number one uh pcl stuff plus is blake snell that's cheating uh and then actually there's some names on here that are just awful uh cesar valdez is second yes Yes, that Cesar Valdez.

I could see actually how he doesn't have great pitching plus. It's great stuff plus okay location, not great pitching. Bad platoon splits because it's all that fosh, right? He might even have like reverse platoon splits where, you know, he's got that changeup, but what can he do to get same-handed guys out and somehow they're trying to turn him into a starter so i just i think that's kind of hilarious um then uh brian mitchell who i don't know that is uh hunter brown you had something to say about we'll return to him real quickly tyler thomas max meyer kelvin nunez ryan pepio and mackenzie gore and matth Matthew Liberatore end up the top 10.

But Hunter Brown and Ryan Pepeo, you thought, had similar profiles, if not. I mean, nobody throws the Ryan Pepeo screw slider change-up thing that he throws. But there's something similar between Hunter Brown and Ryan Pepeo? and Ryan Pepeo? Yeah, they have just really, they seem like classic two to three inning relievers, most likely to me. Like Pepeo, just that first outing couldn't have been more kind of textbook.

Like he just, he'll give you like a pitching ninja gif and then he'll walk half the guys he faces. And like Brown's kind of the same way. But you were saying that the command numbers you have on Brown were better than Pepe. So maybe he's – like he's still walking too many guys, obviously, but maybe he can get by with sort of an elevated walk rate. What organization is he in? Houston.

uh well you know the nice thing about houston is they have some um you know uh i think that they were doing some of what the rays were doing with the one target um you know with glass now they had one target for glass now where he just you know always hit that one target and if it's a curveball it just works off that target down um and so maybe there's some things that houston can do uh to get the most out of brown but also uh houston will be fine with a two-inning pitcher too and like they might just use them as that because that's going to get them to their championship right so uh there's kind of a double-edged sword sometimes the smart organizations um i wonder uh if pepio will make it the i think the main that really pops for me, and I think it's cool that Gore and Liberatore have some similarities

in that they both have above average location plus, top 10 stuff plus in the PCL, and lefties that have had kind of an up and down run in prospect list and just like, you know, what people think of them. And so I think this makes me more bullish on Matthew Libertor because Gore has come into the major leagues.

I think he's shown a good fastball with good shape and good below a slider that looks like a major league slider that he can command. And then two pitches he can work on you know like obviously the change-up i think has a good shape and used to be his one of his out like maybe his out pitch but uh he isn't commanding it well at the major league level so i would say you know find a way to command that change up better and uh and you've got a three pitch pitcher and it's going to work out so i am, because of these numbers, more bullish on Matthew Libertor. Where do you stand on him? Yeah, he's been trending up for me for

about a year. The fastball, I think I wrote him off a little bit. Because it's a sinker. Yeah, I mean it's just not ideal from a velocity or shape standpoint, but he's really improved the rest of his arsenal.

His slider's gotten to be really good. He knows how to pitch. He's definitely a starter. And I mean, you couldn't... I've said this i think i've said this a couple times but like you couldn't ask for a better situation for a pitching prospect to be right yeah it's like because you just you have everything there right like you have easy access to that rotation you have just a perfect division great park yeah yeah like it's just it's really nice so um you know if a pitching prospect with any potential comes up through the cardinals

org this year i'm going to be excited yeah yeah and i could see either dakota hudson i mean dakota hudson i just don't get i can't believe that for his career he's had 280 innings with 318 era with the pitches he has like i and the command he has like he has minus minus command minus stuff i mean just look at his like his spring strike rates the strikeout rates like i don't get it it's because uh he's got a 58% ground ball rate. He walks a guy and then he gets a double play. Yeah, right. Yeah. It just seems unsustainable.

The things that we know about major league pitching are that K-BB is one of the most powerful things. And he has a 3 K-BB. The average is 13. So it's like, I don't get it. So I feel like Dakota Hudson can implode uh or get injured he's also been oft injured in his career um stephen matts uh has been oft injured and uh is imploding um and uh and you know wayne wright is old and michaelis is old so i feel like he

he might be and then hicks has been injured So I know Verhagen is on that roster, but I kind of feel like Libertor might be, uh, or he's not on the roster. He's, he's rehabbing a hip. I bet you that's a phantom rehab. Um,

but anyway, uh, uh, I feel like he's, he's knocking on the doorstep. So that's a fun one. You know, um,

fastball shape is, is a tough one. You know, fastball shape is a tough one. I think it's really hard to see, you know, when you're like, you kind of need to be behind home plate. And even when you are, I think like I was even talking to some scouts about this recently, like that ride and jump, like the difference between a pitch that's just straight and doesn't have ride and a pitch that is straight and has and has ride i think is just really hard to see with your eyeballs so you think you see i like i think i can see it better

from the like behind the angle yeah yeah like um like i i actually prefer when I'm video scouting a pitcher, I prefer the TV angle than the... I had a hitter told me that he preferred to prepare for pitchers from the TV angle. Yeah. I just think you can see what the stuff

does and how it plays off each other. The pitches play off each other better. I think you get a better sense of command from that angle too. Because you can see the target. Yeah. But I don't know.

But do you think that the fastball shape is one of the more difficult things to scout? Totally. is one of the more difficult things to scout? Totally. I mean, well, like, if you get reliable data on the, like, spin and stuff... It makes it easier. Right.

I know there's sort of debates about how reliable that stuff that people get their hands on is, but I don't know. I mean, I think you can... The hitters will kind of tell you, like almost like just sort of how tough it is to square up the fastball. But I mean. Yeah, you could maybe see like pop-ups,

like if it is a high ride fastball, you see a few pop-ups or you sort of like see like hitters kind of like, you know, not swing it or like, or like, you know, kind of do some body language maybe. I did see some, I did see a track man for Grayson Rodriguez. And the best comp for the fastball is Kevin Gaussman. And then he has a change up that almost nobody is throwing it has like uh 14 inches vertical separation off of the fastball and 14 miles per hour difference difference which like that makes me a little bit nervous because a lot of the guys who had that plus change-ups like that are like

honeywell foria cotton you know like that are both plus velocity differential and movement differential. But the curveball had 30 inches drop off of the fastball, and it was hard. And, like, so I don't know. I think that even if his change-up isn't as amazing, you know, he's got – he looked like he had legit four pitches and was sitting 96, 97. Who, just off of your info, who do you like more out of Grayson and Max Meyer?

I have seen the underlying numbers for both of them. I'm going to go with Grayson because he's throwing four pitches and he's throwing them regularly. And that's kind of what I like. You know, when I say about Gore is like he's there's only two pitches that really rate above average in the model and that are like solid major league pitches. But I'm happy he throws the curve and the change,

even if they aren't great. Because the thing about that conversation, we're just having a Cole Irvin versus Matt Brash, right? Like Matt Brash doesn't even try to throw the other stuff, you know, like he's already, he's already narrowed it down. He already knows these are the two pitches, you know, and that's what I've got. So I'd rather have a guy who made it all the way to the major leagues with four pitches, even if maybe later he focuses on three, because it just, it tells me that he's got a wider arsenal. He's got more chances at it, too. Let's say the changeup is weird.

Well, he's still got the curveball and slider. You know what I mean? It's not all going to depend on one pitch. Whereas, I think with Meyer, if he doesn't throw the changeup, then it'll be fastball, slider. If he doesn't throw the changeup, then it'll be fastball slider. We've seen some weakness on fastball slider guys. I think it's a fun juxtapose.

I think it's possible you see Meyer and Rodriguez debut the same week. That's what I'm hoping for. you see Meyer and Rodriguez debut like the same week. Babel Palooza. Yeah, no, it's, that's what I'm hoping for. Like I'm hoping,

and honestly, you might see like, you might see Lieberthor up. Like they could all three come up kind of around the same time. And the sneaky play here, like reading between the lines on our, on our, on our analysis here,

the sneaky play might be to not do the like $250 bid on Grayson Rodriguez. Keep it in the pants. Even if you think Grayson Rodriguez is the best, do like $120 bid on him and then $115 on Max Meyer and $111 on Matthew Libertor. Maybe you end up with Matthew Libertor for $111, but they're closer than people might think.

I mean, that's what the underlying stats are saying. Yeah, I mean, I think you're... Libertor does have the worst fastball. I do have it done by pitch, and it's an 86 stuff plus fastball. So, like, he does have the worst fastball of the group. Yeah, you kind of... It's tough because you run the risk. Like, with Libertor, it's possible that he's just a guy

that you only feel comfortable starting against the Pirates and the Cubs. Then with Meyer and Rodriguez and then George Kirby, I think you should feel pretty good about, I can just leave this guy in my lineup um and just hope that they stay healthy yeah that's a big difference i mean i definitely have libertor third but i i think there might be a sneaky play there or there's the sneaky plays is is max meyer you know bidding a little bit less on buyer than rodriguez and winning meyer uh because there there's a lot to like about all three of them but um i think anyway like me I think Meyer's slider, I just wanted to get your take on

really quick. Does it remind you of any other sliders? Because to me, it's kind of just this unicorn slider almost in terms of its shape and its velocity. It's just a vertical drop on it it's just crazy yeah it's uh it it's uh it is a crazy it's a crazy slider i'm looking here i thought i had um um huh i thought i had a comp here in my yeah anyway um yeah i don't i don't have i don't have for it because it has it has good it's like all sorts of movement right like it's it's you know i think it's i

and it's funny too because the the the the the the scouting has just been like this guy's great on the side like this guy's slider is great you know yeah and it's just uh it's just kind of like the perfect it's like the perfect slider like if i were to just give someone a slider um yeah i wonder if the the model has something to say about this what's funny is that um on uh on the in the model um so pitching plus does not uh stuff plus does not look at um at uh platoon splits okay um and then pitching plus does um i don't know if that was the right decision and we may revisit it but the idea is like just look at which shapes work and then pitching plus can say is that a shape that has a platoon risk

right and i wouldn't think that his does and it doesn't yeah yeah in terms of uh you know the the pitching the stuff plus on is 124 and the pitching plusing Plus is 123. So it looks like it doesn't have the platoon splits. So, like, for example, just to compare, Matthew Libertor's slider has a 126 Stuff Plus and a 107 Pitching Plus. So that has more of a platoon split. That's more of a traditional slider. So there's something to tease out there but um so it may not be that risky also right if he's just fastball slider and it and it doesn't have platoon splits right yeah i mean i've heard uh i i had uh

nate handy on my podcast uh yesterday and he was saying that the slider just destroys lefties. I think the changeup is still nice to have just to keep guys off balance. He will throw. He's not going to throw his changeup. Put your organizational read

there too because he's not on the 40-man yet and Edouard Cabrera is. Edouard Cabrera is behind him in terms of bulk and just's not on the 40 man yet and edward cabrera is edward cabrera is behind him in terms of uh bulk and and and just being pitching on the season um you know but and they don't really necessarily have a quote-unquote need uh i don't know i i my read was like maybe if it's a injury like a short-term injury it's cabrera. But if they're making a real change in the rotation, like for example Elisir Hernandez is out of the rotation, then I think if it's a real change it might be Meyer.

I was talking to Craig Misch about this a few weeks ago. He thinks that Edward Cabrera might be a guy that they shop. And so maybe I don't know whether it would help or hurt his trade value if you bring him up.

Maybe you just want to keep him putting up really good numbers at AAA or something. I don't think anyone would fault them for just going with Meyer. I mean, he's like, what could he possibly be learning right now at triple a like triple a hitters just have no chance against that stuff so i would be tempted to just get him up while he's healthy

and then cabrera you know i don't think there'd be anything wrong with letting him build up as well just because he's missed time with injuries and stuff. Yeah, yeah. I mean, two starts, injuries, plus the command isn't looking good yet. So, I mean, if it's about winning games, it's Meyer. Mm-hmm. And I think it's got to be about winning games for that team. Yeah.

Given what they did in the offseason. Right. And, you know, they're 14 and 17. They span the playoffs. They can convince themselves. They've got a shot at it. You can't waste this jazz season. That's right.

So, you know, I think that hopefully that helps some people, the way they think about their dynasty teams, the way they think about their dynasty teams, the way they think about prospects, the way that they go and get a Rotowire subscription and read your rankings when they come out. But I think we're going to wrap this up here. Well, I did want to do one Would You Rather real quick. This is just a random one bonus for anybody who stuck around. Would you rather

James Tyon or Alex Cobb? For me, it's Cobb pretty easily, but it would have been close if it was Angels Cobb versus Tyon, but Giants Cobb.

95-96. i'm obsessed with like cobs it's just so pretty watching his fastball and his his splitter like it's just so and the curveball is good too yeah i'm i'm really like i if cob can just stay healthy from here i really think's going to just be a monster the rest of the way, taking nothing away from Tyone. I just think the strikeouts are going to be separated. Yeah, just talk to Cobb. It's funny. He said that everybody tells him he needs to throw his curveball more. My model says his curveball is good.

He goes out and he shoves yesterday and he throws 10 curveballs. So I feel like there's even like a, you know, oh, you're seeing me a second time. Hey, how about 25 curve balls today? So I think the curve ball is good enough for him to like, you know, kind of get through the line lineups teams again you know, who are kind of prepping for the splitter, but also who's going to win labor. Well, you have a

you have a 27 standings point we'll see there's also five months to go i just i i was asking you before we started recording like what like what your true talent level is because like i i don't i'm looking at my offense i don't think i can get to the i don't think i can get to triple digits you're at 110 i'm at 83 so i need you to kind of give half of that back i don't think i can take up more than half of it yeah i was saying i don't i don't really have an over performer i mean if you think brandon marsh can't hit 264 i guess he might come down josh naillor is not going to hit 347. But I also have a surplus with Kyle Lewis coming back.

So hopefully I make the right moves. I would like to. Maybe I can bank on like a Josh Naylor steroid suspension or something. Let's start that. Don't start that. But, you know, the embarrassing thing is that I think this is like my 10th or 11th year in labor. And the reason that's embarrassing is just by the frigging numbers, I should have won one by now. There are 12 people in labor.

I have a one in 12 chance every year. Yes, they're all really good. I hope this is my year and you can have next year. Yeah, I mean, you're super due. Yeah, super due. Cold at the plate. Thanks so much for coming on. It was a pleasure.

Hope to see you. I'll see you at the arizona fall league worst case scenario uh but uh let me know if you come through around here uh and enjoy this bucks ride uh through the playoffs and uh uh for those of you listening there's a you can subscribe like and subscribe please uh barrel up on that like button that's something that derrick says uh barrel up on that like button on youtube please uh subscribe like and review wherever you can do such things uh there's a one dollar deal if you follow uh theathletic.com slash rates and barrels uh james anderson what is your i don't have your uh your twitter handle

in front of me uh real jr anderson that's right real that's he's james anderson's real jr anderson on twitter i am enos saris uh and that's that will wrap things up for us back with you next week thankfully with derrick van ryper in the fold thanks for coming on james yeah thanks so much for having me, man. This was great. Thanks for listening.