Rates & Barrels - Where Will This Year's Top Free Agents Land?

Episode Date: November 25, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss the top free-agents available this winter and attempt to predict where that group will land when the dust settles in the weeks ahead. Is Juan Soto staying in New York? Will Corbin Burnes re-up with the Orioles? Can the Padres keep their core intact and continue as perennial threats by adding Roki Sasaki? They consider fits and the potential contingency plans for teams trying to shop at the top of this year's class. Related Reading ($) '2024-25 MLB Top 40 Free Agent Big Board: Welcome to the Juan Soto sweepstakes' -- https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5891633 Rundown 3:58 Juan Soto Staying in New York -- Yankees or Mets? 9:45 Corbin Burnes: Long-Term Ace w/Durability Around Slowly Declining K% 17:15 Roki Sasaki: Maybe It Won't be the Dodgers?! 22:13 Max Fried: Moving on From Atlanta? 26:40 Blake Snell: Another Turn on the Free Agent Market 30:03 Willy Adames: Most Likely Destination? 35:22 Alex Bregman: Is He Really Done in Houston? 40:42 Pete Alonso: Part of the Mets' "A" Plan, or a Fallback to Return? 44:43 Anthony Santander v. Teoscar Hernández: A FA Would You Rather 54:15 Jack Flaherty: The Start of Tier 2 SPs? 1:01:21 Sean Manaea: Best of Tier 2 Options? 1:08:21 Yusei Kikuchi: Signs with Angels; We Would Have Got That Wrong! 1:09:59 Christian Walker: Underrated Power Bat on the Market? 1:12:53 Ha-seong Kim: Many Suitors with Injury Discount? 1:15:24 Reds-Royals Trade Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Monday, November 25th. Derek Van Riper, Enocerous, here with you on this episode. We are looking at the very top of this free agent class and making some predictions as to where those players will land in the weeks and months ahead. It's a good thing we're doing this episode today, you know, because the angels cannot be contained. The angels refuse to lose November. In fact, I think they're winning November.

And that was the advice my grandmother always gave me growing up. She said, you got to win November. That's the most important thing of all, win November. And look, Paramanasian, you know, win November. That's the most important thing of all. We didn't November and look, Parry Minasian, you know, his grandmother probably told him the same thing because he is winning November right now. I think I tried to like, look at this in the numbers once and was like, you know, of course

there's way too many, too much noise and too many things pointing at different directions. To be like, to try to look at like winning the off season and how you, you know, how you do, you know, the, the, the saddest thing about all this is that. And this is, I don't mean to throw any water on the, on the parade here, but the saddest thing is that like, because of aging and stuff, like we're probably looking at a bunch of players that have done cool things that will do less

cool things in the future Hey, but let's just pretend like that won't be the outcome. Let's think pie in the sky for everyone Well, Wada Soto is so young that maybe maybe there is a like a triple crown season in there You know, you could see him winning the MVP. Yeah I mean as far as your superstars hitting free agency at a young age, this is the rare 26 year old who hits like a Hall of Famer and should continue to hit like a Hall of Famer for the duration of whatever contract he gets. And that might be 11 or 12 years.

It's going to be a ton of money. We know that there are a lot of suitors out there that are actually lining up to make big pitches to Juan Soto and I think there are four teams listed on the Athletics Roundtable free agent rankings, all of them sort of clustered in the Northeast. Both New York teams are returned to the Nationals, the Phillies all being kind of tied in there. And there's one important thing to think about before we start diving into each individual player. You were looking at teams that seemingly have more money to spend than others. So you put a chart together, just looking at 2024 payroll, looking at what's on the books for 2025, and you found a group of teams that we would expect to see generally be pretty

active, all with significant room in their budgets to make a splash. The first two columns of numbers, they're gonna be different no matter where you look. And I actually don't think it's as important what those numbers say as what the difference is. Because if you look at, even this is fan graphs, but it's not the luxury tax number

that's at the bottom, right? So these numbers are a little bit lower than their luxury tax numbers and those luxury tax numbers are really gonna inform what they do because of aprons and all that so i wouldn't focus too much in these first two numbers. What the difference gives you a sense of which of these teams feels like according to the past established payroll norms they have money to spend. according to past established payroll norms, they have money to spend. And the Mets have a whopping 173 million against their last year number. Again, you know, I don't know if they're going to spend 173 million. I don't know that they want to live at 336 million because the, because of all the, you know, the tax implications of that, um, are pretty, pretty bad up at the upper ends. They're losing draft picks. They're paying one, one to one tax on, on, on all the numbers over that.

And like, it gets a little expensive up there, but I do think they have the most money this off season. And I think they're going to be the biggest players. That's why I give them Juan Soto. What a gift. That's prediction number one. Christmas gift to the Mets fans, steal Juan Soto from the Yankees. It would be the ultimate shifting of the tide, I think. It's just as far as the Mets really saying, hey, look, we are spending money like the

flagship franchise in New York now in the Steve Cohen era, right? To take them from the Yankees especially sends a particular message as far as how much you trust Soto to age I think his bat will age as well as any player we've seen in free agency in our lifetimes I believe that so the dollars don't even matter so you're giving them to the Mets I guess the the thing that I think about is if Soto leaves, the plan B for the Yankees is some multiplayer combination of guys at or near the top of the board, right?

It has to be an aggressive spend on multiple players because you're losing so much from one spot. It's hard to make up for that. Yeah. losing so much from one spot. It's hard to make up for that. Yeah. Um, and, and if you look back at that, um, that, uh, that salary chart, what you'll see is that, um, the Yankees are the basically the second team.

I knew the white socks have 75 million to spend. They will spend 70, none of those million. Um, and, uh, and so basically the Yankees, uh, you know, when it says 73 million, that's not a hard number, but I think that you could fit basically two or three, um, second level, uh, you know, free agents in that budget, um, to kind of replace the production of one Soto and mix it around, um, and maybe that's smart. Uh, on some level. What we saw from the Yankees at times in the postseason

was they were a very top heavy team where, you know, the stars were doing stuff and you were kind of waiting for, you know, Anthony Rizzo to have a big hit or whatever. And so with this kind of a budget, the Yankees could do something better than Anthony Rizzo at first base and get another pitcher and sort of move it around and improve their depth behind Arson Judge right there at the top. So that's what I think is going to happen is that the Mets steal Soto and the Yankees

are big players for some of the rest of the players on our list. So in my Choose Your Own Adventure Through Free Agency, I gave Juan Soto back to the Yankees. After all this courtship, I think the Yankees decided to say, hey, this is a player that we do want to continue to build around in our franchise and it's got to be Soto Plus. But instead of being Soto Plus, guys that are also in the top 10 of these free agent rankings. It's going to be taking some smart shots on the bottom half of that round table list that you can find over at the athletic. There was an interesting blurb in there. Only Aaron judge has a higher on base percentage than Soto over the last three

seasons and Soto has never had an OBP in the big leagues. It didn't start with a four. It's just unreal how good he is. And the power is legit too. I think you had a part of that note was that only six players have hit more homers the last three years. Yeah. Yeah. The last two. So I mean, yeah, the power is phenomenal.

Age is right. I think it's one of the New York teams. Last year, I did this with Will Salmon on the athletic baseball show. Each of our guesses counts in the sense that if, if either one of us is right, we get credit. So when we split, it's actually to our advantage. Sometimes we'll agree that's to a disadvantage.

Last year, Will and I did this for 15 players, top 15 on the board. We got six right. We had 400, you know. So that's not bad. That's, that's combined though. Combined. Any one of you did not hit 400.

You know, I think we were both above the Mendoza line because I think we agreed on a couple of we got right. Oh, that's it's really hard. I mean, there's we don't we're not in there in these meetings. We're in especially we're not in the means with the ownership where we know what the actual number is. So when we keep flipping over to the salary chart, you know, these are demonstrated numbers of what's happened in the past that they are looking at an actual number that they know they can spend this year. So, um, we're trying to guess along. I do think in your version of the postseason and this really, this

decision means so much to what happens afterwards. Cause you heard us talk about the dominoes that are going to happen, right? It's like, you know, the Mets have enough money where they maybe they can get Soto and still be players for some other players, guys. But if the Yankees don't get Soto, they're going to be Uber aggressive. I think on the second level, on the other guys. And so they're going to be winners of some surprise guys that you didn't, you necessarily didn't think of that are in the top 10.

So, um, you know, I think that, you know, then they become, if they get one Soto, they become penny pinchers. And I think in your version of the world, um, you know, then they become, if they get one Soto, they become penny pinchers. And I think in your version of the world, you know, this postseason, maybe they would go and get maybe like a Tanner Scott, you know, like get, you know, a good reliever and maybe finish with a backend starter, some sort of arm depth or maybe two relievers, you know, in a market that doesn't have great relief options. You know, they could they could try to, you know, improve the bullpen because the bullpen was on its last legs last year, too.

You know, they can't just go into the plant with just Luke Weaver and we'll figure out the rest, you know. So I could see them Soto and some bullpen arms. And that's their postseason, which is, you know, not maybe uber exciting, but the team got to the world series. And like the idea is we re-rack this with a couple, a little bit different pitcher luck. And, and, you know, maybe we work on our fundamentals

and we squeeze it out next time. So that does leave Corbin Burns as somebody that I don't think the Yankees can go get if they get Soto. I'm not even sure they would go get them if they don't get Soto, like in the plan B world where Soto goes to the Mets or goes somewhere else. I think the Yankees combination of players

begins somewhere just below Corbin Burns on this list. And the Corbin Burns story is pretty straightforward, right? The strikeout rate has been dropping each year since it peaked, but he's been very durable. He still shows what looks like near frontline stuff. There are only 10 pitchers who have an ERA below three since the start of 2021 with a minimum of 300 innings pitched. So one's a full-time reliever. That's Tyler Rogers, by the way. Two have moved back into starting roles again, after spending a lot of time in

the bullpen, that would be Michael King and Ronaldo Lopez and Corbin Burns is one of the seven others, right? One of the others is also available in free agency. We'll talk about him in just a few minutes. So Corbin Burns back to Baltimore makes a lot of sense to me because this core is still very good. They made the move to give him. That's my prediction.

I think this is what everyone thinks is going to happen. I think everyone thinks he's staying in Baltimore. So why are you convinced that the Orioles are going to actually pony up the money? It's probably going to be something in the neighborhood of seven years and 200 plus million dollars. They haven't in, it's a new ownership group, but this front office hasn't had a chance to spend like this.

So do you think it's just pure necessity and like not having a good way to replace Burns if they end up losing him to someone else? Yeah, I think that, um, I think it just makes sense for them to push back to some of the days when they actually had a more competitive payroll. Now if you look at this year versus last year, the Orioles have $4 million to spend on my tracker. I don't think that's how it's going to work. And if you look back to 2016 to 2018, they had top 10 payrolls for those three years combined and I'm not necessarily saying they're gonna jump into the top 10 in one year but right now last year they were 26th in opening day payroll according to COTS

contracts so I just kind of think that they are at this point where they're ready to push back into that level. They know that the lineup is pretty good and they have familiarity with burns. And I would say that most of that familiarity has been a positive experience for them in terms of, you know, the analytics of the signing. I don't think any analytics team is super excited about, uh, signing a pitcher to seven years, um, and dropping 245 million on a pitcher. However, if you have to be honest, you have to think, well, the Max Scherzo deal was pretty good.

Uh, the first Steven Strasburg deal was all right. They were, there have been big pitcher deals. The core, I would say the Garrett Cole deal has been pretty good to the Yankees. And so what you're looking for in these mega deals that work, if you say that Scherzer and Cole are the deals that have worked the best, there are some similarities between Corbin Burns and Scherzer and Cole in that the injury history has been pretty good for Corbin Burns, justerzer and Cole in that the injury history has been pretty good for Corbin burns, just like with Garrett Cole and, uh, with

Max Scherzer before that big deal. The strikeout rates have been really solid. And I think all three of them have something that is super important for an aging pitcher, which is a plus plus fastball, like an elite fastball. And you know, if you're signing someone to a longterm deal and they already have a subpar fastball, they there's not that many tricks they can play. If they get older, the trick, the main trick that a pitcher plays as they get older is, Oh, look, I have 10 pitches like Seth Lugo or whatever, you know, like, Oh, look,

I started throwing a cutter 20% of the time, you know, for Corbin Burns, I know cutter is his primary pitch, but that's his fastball and it's an elite pitch still. And even if you're saying, Oh, the swing strike rate has fallen a little bit or this, or the strikes right race falling a little bit. I still think that he has this really good foundation and he can play the old old pitcher triggers on top of that. And I'm sure of this because he throws a sweeper like basically five games a year and whenever it shows up on our little, on our little tracker,

we're like, well, that looks like a plus sweeper. He doesn't do it. Maybe I don't know why, maybe it's too much wear and tear, too many breaking balls, whatever it is. But you know, at some point, if he does fall below a point, you'll be like, okay, well now I throw a sweeper too. And I think he has enough touch on breaking balls. He's this, he's a guy who's been throwing three breaking balls for a while.

So, uh, he's your breaking ball master. That's another thing he hasn't come with Max Scherzer. Max Scherzer had like five breaking balls, you know, had a really good touch, uh, feel for spin. So I think Corbin Burns has this great feel for spin. The VELO is still good. He has a good health history. I'm giving him all the money.

And if I'm giving him all the money, the team that seems like they need him the most are the Orioles. If they lose him and they're trying to buy Max Freed or Jack Flaherty, like they've even done the Jack Flaherty dance. They're not doing that again, you know? Or, you know, I guess I would say in the alternate history of me is I would think they would go hard after Blake Snow if they don't get Corbin Burns. But I think that there could be a moment in Baltimore where they're like, hey, you know, we used to run middle of the pack payrolls at least. Let's let's push this a little bit. Right.

And again, new ownership as of last year, probably willing to spend a bit more. I think there's the appetite to actually win, kind of make this core and get all the way through the post season and actually bring home a world series as well. Interesting thing about Burns too that I noticed, the Velo is holding up well on the cutter. He averaged 95.3 on that pitch in 2024. If you go back to the beginning of this four year window I was talking about, 95.2. Nice. So that's a really good sign.

We're not seeing a half tick gone kind of year over year. So I do think he's going to get the bag deservedly. So I haven't gone to the Mets because again, it's if the Mets miss on Soto, if Soto stays in the 80s in my world, they are going to go make that splash. I think David Stearns knows Corbin Burns about as well as any front office executive in baseball. And I think if you fortify that rotation with someone like Burns, who you think is going to age gracefully as you become a powerhouse at developing pitching, you won't sign players like this in the future. But you do need one in the shorter term to sort of keep you at that level of being a perennial contender in the National League.

So I do think the Mets, because in my world they're missing out on Soto, get Burns. I don't think they're gonna get them both. So if they get Soto, then I fully buy into your Burns to Baltimore as a kind of a necessary fit for the Orioles. You're convincing me a little bit. I don't like this because I've got Willie Adamis

later on the list and if the Mets don't get Soto and then they get Korden Burns and they could totally use a Willie Adamus. Just bring back the Brewers, Sterns. That's what he's doing. He's just going to pay the brewers full price. All the guys that he sought out before had on his roster. He just wants to reunite with all of them. I don't think there's a page yet for Roki Sasaki over at Fangraft. So let's get to Sasaki next.

We've talked a lot about his skills in the last couple of episodes, so we're not going to go deep into that here. The main takeaway is that the stuff wasn't as good in 2024, even though it was still very good given his age, given that he's part of, as we learned, the 2025 international bonus pool instead of 2024. That kind of opens up a few more teams. We're actually in agreement into where he fits. I believe you suggested the Padres previously, and it makes so much sense because the universe just works with mischief. And it's not mischief in the sense of something nefarious being done to get

them to San Diego, it's that the Padres are at that point where they're going to start feeling the crunch of all the money they spent as those veterans get more and more expensive and they live right by that luxury tax threshold. It's going to become more and more difficult to sustain being a perennially competitive team just because of the passing of Peter Seidler, what seems like a slightly reduced appetite to maintain a payroll like that within the ownership group, TV issues, all of those factors. But Roki Sasaki is like the cheat code because he's not handled like a regular free agent. You're not making a nine figure outlay.

You're getting a guy that can be an ace and be there for a few years and completely manipulate the trajectory of your team. Keep you afloat for a few more years. And it makes sense. They've got Darvish. They have the ability to bring a player like this in. So I don't know. I mean, there's five plus other teams where he actually could go.

But the more I think about it, the more I think this is what's going to happen with Sasaki. Yeah, there's, there's other weird pieces of smoke around it, which is just that, you know, there were these allegations basically put forth in the press conference with, with Rob Manfred that like, oh, there's been a handshake deal with the Dodgers and Manfred had to be like, no, that's not allowed. Like, you know, which is, uh, disingenuous because we just found out that the Padres had a handshake deal with a 14 year old turned out to be 19 and the Padres are not in trouble for the

handshake deal. Yeah. Um, but the Padres are the entity that were wrong in that instance, right? I mean, not, I heat, not solely, not, not solely, but if you're mad at any one person or people, they made a hand shake deal with like a 13 year old. Yeah. Right. That's be more mad at the team than you are at the child in this case. I guess Manfred can't get in the position where he's like reprimanding the Dodgers

for having handshake with Roki Sasaki because, you know, the weird thing is though, that we have to remember that Roki Sasaki has a posting team and they have some motivations of their own and they're about to lose on this money wise, but by pushing the posting period. And they're not even doing much they're just saying we're not going to post them until like January one or something right by by posting January one instead of December one or whatever they get into the next year's money. And so the Dodgers had the most of last year's money but there's only $2 million they had

left in their in their international signing bonus money. So by pushing the posting period a month or whatever it is, um, they are now having a ha now have access to 20, 25 international, uh, bonus pool money. And all of a sudden the Dodgers go to one of the worst teams with 5 million. And you've got the Padres with that are more among the six and 7 million teams. Now, you know, the other team, the, uh, the, the posting team is only getting a fraction of that, but at this point they've lost so much. He was like, yes, we'd rather have a fraction of seven million than a fraction of two million. So please, please give us our pennies for this amazing player that might turn out to

be your race. And then, you know, from Roki's standpoint, he doesn't care. He, what he cares, he doesn't really care about the money as much. So he could still go to the Dodgers. Um, he probably cares about winning, but also I would assume some level of team fit culture and that sort of stuff may actually matter that he idolized, uh, you Darvish. So that's, that's part of that.

Maybe, you know, not everybody wants to join the front runner, the team that just won the world series. A lot of times they want to be like, no, I want to help a team that hasn't won the world series, win the world series. Then I'm a legend of my own, you know, and not just the guy who joined on with Shohei to like, you know, win some, some world series along with them, like maybe slay the giant, you know? So you don't know exactly how Roki feels

about these things and nobody almost does. And so it's gonna be a surprise wherever he goes really, but I guess it's either the Podgers or the Dodgers. Yeah, if you wanna say let's split our guesses so we can cover two teams, sure. I would technically change mine to the Dodgers to give us another shot, but I am buying your narrative as far as Roki to San Diego goes at this point.

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make and takes just 20 minutes of active time. It's just delicious. New York Times Cooking has you covered with easy dishes for busy weeknights. Find these recipes and more at NYTCooking.com. Smells so good. All right, let's talk about Max Fried for a moment. Now I see the Dodgers for Max Fried. Another Harvard Westlake guy. I think the need for the six-man rotation still keeps them in the market for another

starter. I think this is the ongoing problem, right? They've dealt with so many injuries in their group of pitchers that with money not being an object, with all the things that Dodgers do well in run suppression with their defense in particular, I think they are a very good fit. A reunion with Atlanta doesn't seem impossible,

but the thing I kind of looked at was the Alex Anthopolis Braves haven't really spent top dollar re-upping pitchers, right? They got a bit of a bargain trading for and extending Chris Sale and they signed Strider before he was even arbitration eligible, right? So I don't think their MO is to splash a bunch of money on a free agent guy, even if it's someone they like and someone they're familiar with. So I see Freed going to the Dodgers. I know it's less swing and miss than some of the other top end starters you see,

but this seems like a spot where the Dodgers could do well. Well, Fangraphs right now has the Braves rotation without Max Fried as the second best rotation in baseball. So that's Chris Sale, Ronaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwalbach, Spencer Strider, and Ian Holmes, Ian Anderson, Grant Holmes, additional Schaver, you know, some sort of grouping there. I could see them actually landing a sort of more backend guy. so that they can push the Anderson Holm Schaver group from 210 innings as they currently have to more 100, 150. So that's what I would see them doing.

I don't think they necessarily have the motivation even. And if you're just sort of reading the tea leaves of how they've interacted with their player, like they've had plenty of chance to sign to an extension and didn't. So this one seems to be having a long time sort of for some whatever reason is health or whatever. One thing I have noticed, I did read up on this, flexor tendon tears are a precursor to Tommy John. There's a pretty good link there in terms of peer-reviewed research that shows that once you've had the flexor tendon tear, you're more likely to have Tommy John. So you know, at this point though, you know,

you may be Tommy John's price of the package and you sign him to a five year deal and you expect to lose one of those years, you know, that's just, and the Dodgers seem to be okay with that. They're just like throw another, you know, possibly injured pitcher onto the barbecue and we'll, we hope we have a full plate of food when the, when October comes around, you know, so I could see that happening.

I could also see the, in my worldview, the Yankees have lost out on Soto. And so they're diversifying their, uh, their investment in their team. And one thing that's kind of cool, um, you know, having a lefty pitch for you And one thing that's kind of cool, um, you know, having a lefty pitch for you in New York is that the porch there is short for left-handers. And so suppressing lefty power, um, can go a long way. So I think it's important for the Yankees to have lefty starters. Uh, I think part of the difficulty for, um, you know, Clark Schmidt getting going is he being a righty and

giving up some of those homers over there so you know putting Max Fried in this group does mean that maybe Marcus Stroman becomes available in trade just as a either a monetary saving device and maybe I'm just I'm just wrong about this one I could see Fried going any number of places depending on what the actual device and maybe I'm just wrong about this one. I could see Freed going any number of places depending on what the actual contract looks like because he's not going to get the seven years, he's not going to get the six years even. If he's out there asking for five and 125, 150, like sort of the advanced Kevin Gossman, Robbie Ray deal, you know, then I think a lot more

teams will be interested in him. If he's trying to get over 200 million, uh, there's only going to select few of teams. And yes, I think Fried versus Snell is like really everyone's, um, you know, debate that they have and Fried has the qualifying offer attached to him. So you'd lose a draft pick. So you give him money and he's fits in a little bit

off injured, good, you know, good strikeout rate, like, you know, nice arsenal. Snell, I think gets dinged for a command in a way he shouldn't, I think he's chosen not to throw in the middle of the zone. And so he's chosen to walk guys. And with his strikeout rate, it actually works. He's high stuff and he has no qualifying pick

attached to him. I personally would rather have Blake Snell than Max Fried. Yeah, I think it comes back to a question of, what do you think age is better? Is it Snell's superior stuff with that willingness to maybe miss in places where he doesn't get hurt, which drives up that walk rate, or Fried's superior command.

I think you have durability issues with both. If you look at the year over year workloads, Freed has made two fewer starts in the last four seasons than Snell, but he's done that while throwing 62 and a third more innings. And that's been always a knock on Snell, right? His lack of efficiency sometimes limits the duration of his starts.

I think we pointed out last year, it's not as bad as you think. He's not under five innings as often as people make him out to be. And with Snell, you are talking about a guy that has a 315 ERA over the last four seasons combined, freeds in that group of guys below three. He's one of the pitchers that does fit in there. Two time Cy Young award winner. And you've got Snell also being a lead at hit suppression. I think that's a trait that both of these players have.

I think they're both good at avoiding damage. So it really is just a preference. I like that nice fast ball for Snell. You know, I don't think that Fried's fast ball is that great. I think he's already on the like you've seen it already in Atlanta. Cutter, Sinker, Fordseam, like he's trying everything, you know, and he's diversifying. Snell actually has a small arsenal, you know, it's a lot of times a three pitch arsenal. But he has thrown the slider and has been good enough with the slider in the past that I

actually think that that can be a pitch for him. And I don't think that he has a problem diversifying. I think he just has three really good pitches and is fine throwing those three really good pitches. So among the unknowns for this off season is just the aggressiveness of Buster Posey being in the main chair in San Francisco. I have a hard time if he's going to contend this year with that roster. I have a hard time seeing them do that without a reunion with Snell.

So I think Snell actually stays put on a longer deal with the giants. Um, where do you see Snell going? I've got him going to the Mets, Blake Snell to the Mets. And I know that I have in my universe, Soto to the Mets, but we did point out that they have a large coffer and what we do also know to the Mets, but we did point out that they have a large coffer. And what we do also know about the Mets is they have a real need in the pitching department. They are not only going to have to promote from within, work the back end of the pitching market, but they should work the front end of the pitching market too. And what I think, what I see is if they sign Soto, they don't

have the, I think, intestinal fortitude to also sign Burns in the same offseason. And if Fried gets any more years than Snell, which I think might be folly, but you know, maybe that's an idea that people think he will age better, like you're sort of talking about, then I'd rather have the fewer years. So I'm taking Snell to the Mets because I need him and other pitchers, you know, and I don't necessarily want to lose the draft pick with freed if I'm already in the sort of losing draft picks part of the luxury tax. So that's that's what I got snowed the Mets. Let's shift over to a few position players again. Again, we're working off of the roundtable rankings from the athletic. These are not our free agent rankings, but it seemed like a good place to go just to order things based on the opinions of a few other folks that we tend to trust.

Willie Adamis pops up here as the next option available. There's a lot to like with Willie. I think we've seen pretty good durability. His defense graded out better in 22 and 23, but it wasn't bad in 2024. We know there's a possibility he could sign and just not play shortstop somewhere. I think more likely he signs as a shortstop and then moves in a couple of years over the course of a long-term deal. One thing we've liked about him for a long time, four straight seasons now with a double digit barrel rate, makes a lot of hard contact, and Luis Adamus has kept that K rate at 25% each of the last two seasons.

So I landed on the Dodgers as the Willy Adamus fit. I was thinking about Max Muncie a little bit here because they have a club option for Muncie in 2026. So if they still like what they have in Muncie, great. It's 2025 plus one more year at a price they like. Beyond that, it's hard to imagine Max Muncie playing around the infield the way he does right now for the Dodgers. So the Dodgers could sort of kick the shortstop problem down the road a couple of years, move

Adamus to a different spot on the infield. Once they find a shortstop, they like better. Once they feel like maybe his glove erodes a little bit more. But this one stings, man. I will be Adamus is a player that if he plays for your team, I think you just, you like him. You could just tell he's generally liked by his teammates. Just, it's weird to see guys beefing with them.

Like we saw Jesse Winker in the post season. So you kind of tick all the boxes where it's like, there's power, there's a good enough glove to play short. There's not too much swing and miss. And you're getting what seems like an A sort of fit in just about any clubhouse. Yeah. Yeah. He's a, he's a, he's a, a, um, a top step guy.

Yeah. So that's a great way to describe it. Yeah. Top step guy. He's right there. He's, he, he's willing to, to represent for the team. He's willing to, and that's the only reason why Winker is beefing with him because if you beef with the Brewers, you're beefing with Willie Thomas.

You know what I mean? Like that's, that's, that's how it ended up, you're beefing with Willie Domus, you know what I mean? That's how it ended up. But not that Willie necessarily started it, I don't think. I'd have to review the tape, but Winker did a lot of stuff and was in Milwaukee and was not necessarily liked when he was in Milwaukee. So there's a lot of backstory to that one.

Other than the fact that I agree with you, Willie Domus seems like a leader. He's a shortstop that has played for two small two small market teams is probably ready to take the big money from somebody and and and be in one of these big places I did not maybe give the dodgers enough. In terms of players today because I thought. And though it says they're dropping down to 276, they could actually just, you know, bask in the glow and stay at 276, which is still a very large number and maybe not spend a lot this off season. And in my world where the Yankees have lost out on Soto and they need to win some of these free agents, they win Willi Adonis.

I give the Yankees Willi Adonis. And for similar reasons to you, where you're talking about the Mets, you're talking about the Dodgers having some issues with shortstop and center, and some of the depth chart issues, Max Muncie brought up. I think the depth chart ensues in New York are worse. Even if they do sign Soto, you have to think,

what are you guys doing about third and first? And is it really Ben Rice and Oswaldo Cabrera? You have two one-win players on a team that was just in the World Series? You're gonna sign Juan Soto and go in with Ben Rice and Oswaldo Cabrera, or you're gonna sign Juan Soto and other people? And that's gonna start pushing numbers

we haven't seen necessarily out of Yankees payrolls, you know, so possible, but I think not probable. That's, this is actually part of why I think maybe the Mets get Soto and the Yankees get the other players because they need somebody like Willie Thomas. You put Willie Thomas at third base and I get them winning a first baseman later. But the more on that later, then you change your depth chart and you're better in all the places. You know, you're, you're better around your better well-rounded team.

And I could see the Yankees deciding to do that. Willie Adamis at third base, I think gives you the best, some of the best left side defense in baseball, you know, um, yeah. And then you have jazz as either a center fielder or your second baseman. The depth chart starts to figure itself out. First baseman, you don't have to spend that much money on I've got, I've got them getting a first baseman too. So I think this is part of the post Soto revamp, but we'll, we'll see.

Adamus, I think what you're getting from him, you know, there are some issues with the strikeout rate. He may not age amazingly. Like it's not like such top-end Badded ball stuff that like you know I don't know that he would be your great first baseman No, no, I don't think he's ever that yeah I think he's good enough defensively where he can play third and second and still have defensive value through the course of this contract Right it's to me

I've said this before it's a lot like the dance toor and foray into free agency a couple off seasons ago in terms of what you're going to get. I think it'll age pretty well, but it's going to be a long enough deal where the end is a little bit tricky. That's how free agency tends to work. It's not a knock on Willie Adamis. Let's talk about Alex Bregman. It's hard to imagine Alex Bregman wearing a different uniform. There's some free agents just like, nah, that dude, that dude's staying.

That guy's an Astro. I've read they've made an offer. We don't know really what that offer is, of course. That's just not how it works. But where does he go if he leaves? Like, I think you have him going back to Houston. I think that's the most likely outcome. I kind of lean toward the OK, how about the Mets?

Let's think about the Mets and think about the types of players that certain front offices will value. I think David Stearns is gonna spend a lot of that money, maybe not all of it, but a lot of that money, because he can, why wouldn't you? You were as close as you were in 2024, you have championship aspirations, this is an opportunity to make your team a lot better. I don't think they have a quality third baseman

on the roster. We've talked about the value of Alex Bregman's glove. I think that helps him age really well. And I think when you look at a guy that doesn't strike out a lot, plays great defense at a premium position, you are comfortable if you're a guy like Stearns, if you're someone like that,

you're saying, yeah, I trust this over the long haul because there's a lot of ways for him to still add value even if the power wanes, even if moving into a ballpark that's not going to be as nice as Minute Maid is for the way his approach works, even if that kind of chips away at him a little bit. So I could even see like a Tampa Bay dark horse rumor coming out with Bregman where they're like, oh, the Rays are interested in Alex Bregman. That just seems like the kind of player that a air quotes smarter front office will generally want to be invested in for the long haul. So I have the Mets as the sort of next most likely place for Bregman to go.

But I think your reunion plan with the Astros makes the most sense. There's definitely been some decline already in, in Bregman's bat. He's 30 years old. He has not had an isolated power over 200 and you know, the average around the league is is up and down a little bit, but it's like 160. So he has above average power, but he does not have sort of no doubt power. And last year was weird because it was also the first year he did not have a plus walk rate. I think you would generally accept that that probably bounces back and he has a decent OPP next year, hits you 20 plus bags in most stadiums and plays good defense. So yeah, it's one of those players that

Um, and, uh, plays good defense. So yeah, it's one of those players that, um, it's kind of just a mid level guy, but with the strikeout rate piece, I could see why the Mets would be interested. The Mets were middle of the pack in strikeout rate last year. So by adding Bregman, what you can do is keep your, keep your power. You're not, you're not adding a Luis Arias, you know, like you're, you're, you're keeping your power up, but you're also improving your strikeout right you're moving mark vientos over to first i have them losing Peter lanzo. So i think that would make a lot of sense i just think that the astros have very little to spend. And I don't see them spending it on a pitcher and if they lose Bregman, there's not really a great option in free agency behind him to get any better.

And if you look at the depth charts right now at over at Fangrass in terms of third base, the Astros without Bregman are 26th. So, you know, taking 27th even, you know, going from Shay Whitcomb to Alex Bregman takes them from like 27th to seventh. So that's too much of a depth chart hole for them to ignore, I think. I tried to come up with the best ridiculous, how would they replace Bregman in Houston if he left?

And here's what I came up with. How angels would it be to trade Anthony Rendon to Houston while eating 90% of his money only to have Rendon crank out 140 games and just clobber them 13 times a season, would that not be the most angels thing possible? All of a sudden, Rendon is like is like, I actually, you know, I'd like to play now. Yeah. Like Houston's home relatively speaking, right? Played his college ball at Rice. So, hey, stranger things have happened, but yeah,

there's a sort of like a desperation of, well, if they lose Bregman, I don't know if there's an easy, smart fit for them to get even half of that production back from that spot. And that leaves them chasing somewhere else. I did see the tigers listed as one of the, the fits in the free agent piece on the athletic. I thought that was kind of interesting. I think that would be a big splash for Scott Harris and company.

It wouldn't mind that fit there either. So I want to see if they kind of actually do that. If they don't do it, it's Josh Rojas, uh, Donovan Solano, Gio Rochella. It's some other kind of trade. Like they would have to go out and make some kind of move. But in terms of assets for trade, um, they're not, Houston's not, you know, flush with, with, uh, prospects that people want. So maybe the angels want Chaz McCormick

and they'll send you Rendon and they'll eat a bunch of the Rendon money. No, you're gonna make too many people angry at this one. Don't do it. Oh, come on. Am I making anyone angry with this one? Yes. The Pete Alonzo thing is interesting.

You kind of hinted at this. Like you think the Mets are gonna lose him. I think because of all the other things they do, it does put them in a position where signing Alonzo makes less sense. There's obviously a world where he stays. That's not out of the question. Just depends on how the other dominoes fall. But Vientos's glove is a little bit a part of this conversation.

Vientos's glove is probably not that adequate at third, you know. It's not ideal. And you'd rather have the first base DH thing going. And if you do that, you really don't want a first baseman and a DH kind of locked into your plans. You'd rather have a little bit of float there, I think, with the way they're built. And starting Marte, you know, is maybe should be a DH

at this point. Right. So you already have Marte and Vientos. And if in this world, or they signed Soto, then you're like, oh, now we have three poor defenders, you know. So they could almost, they could almost be, you know, let Pete Alonso go for with or without Soto, with or without, you know, improving the third base defense with your, your Alex Bregman pick.

But Pete Alonso on the other hand, represents for the San Francisco Giants, something that they haven't had in a long time, which is a legitimate right-handed slugger that can, it's actually easier to hit home runs right-handed in San Francisco. Now the only problem is that Pete Alonso has a little bit of an oppo swing. Um, but we've seen with Elliott Ramos, we finally had a right-hander go, you know, into the water this year in San Francisco. And so Pete Alonso can go into the water over there. He would lose some balls to triples alley, but he would also hit some balls over the cars into,

into left field and just um, just generally be one of the more feared sluggers in Giants history. And I think the one thing that the Giants do want to do, you know, is by hitters because pitchers are always going to sign there, uh, and always take a one or two year bounce back pillow type deal, uh, to, to pitch in San Francisco. So if they're going to overpay for anybody, it's somebody like Pete Alonzo. Yeah. Go get the big bat.

I like that fit there. Um, I think in light of me sending Alex Bregman to the Mets, I've got the Astros swooping in for Pete Alonzo. I think their corner depth chart is highly questionable. I think John Singleton is a good story, but I think you can add Pete Alonzo to that roster, let John Singleton DH a good story, but I think you can add Pete Alonzo to that roster, let John Singleton DH against righties, feel pretty good about that as your plan going in and then maybe go all glove at third base if you get Alonzo, right?

If you replace Bregman with Alonzo and get a glove first third baseman to sort of keep you afloat, maybe you are okay with that if you're the Astros. That might make sense because their catcher is above average offensively most of the time with Diaz. And so if you've got an above average catcher and then Peña is not a zero offensively either, so then you would just be like, Hey, how many zeros am I okay with in the lineup? If I've got Pete Alonso at first, my zeros are at third and center.

That seems like maybe I can handle that. The, the Asterix I have on that though is your zeros might be at third and center, that seems like maybe I can handle that. The the asterisk I have on that, though, is your zeros might be its third center and left because right now Chas McCormick and Dubon Maricio Dubon are at the top of the left field chart. So, you know, maybe that's the one on Alvarez. But right now, there's maybe a little whisper of a third hole. And I would think when you get to three holes, that's that's one non Alvarez. But right now there's maybe a little whisper of a third hole. And I would think when you get to three holes, that's one hole too many.

I'd rather have two holes on my team offensively. We thought maybe early last season, I think you, Britt and I were talking about the Astros when they had that slow start with the, oh wow, this is breaking down a little faster than expected. We're seeing the warts. Now it starts to look, now you're like, oh, now I get it.

Wait, this is the great team? You know, like it doesn't look as great anymore. Yeah, it can change fast. This is a pretty critical off season for that front office, that ownership group to sort of figure out what they want to be in these next couple of seasons. I think you've got a few toss-ups in this group of power hitters. It's a first baseman

in Alonso that probably profiles more as a DH eventually. Anthony Santander and Teasca Hernandez kind of fit into this bucket as well. Santander versus Hernandez might be more of a toss-up for a lot of teams trying to think about who they prefer and what the better way to go long-term would be. Santander is kind of similar to Pete Alonso by strikeout rate, walk rate average, and slug just based on what they've done over the last three seasons or so. Where do you think Anthony Santander goes? Because I think this starts to open up that next group of teams that could be trying to get their most impactful bat available, since some of the very top options are just not going to be available to them.

Uh, I just, you were saying about a toss up, uh, this is kind of amazing. I know that Teasca Hernandez is two years older than Anthony Santander. So that is meaningful going forward and what kind of deals they will get and so on and so forth. But last three years, over 1900 plate appearances each. Teasca Hernandez, 8.3 Fangrass War, Anthony Santander, 8.3 Fangrass War. Teasca Hernandez, 123 WRC+, where 100 is average. Anthony Santander, 124.

So amazingly similar players, even though Te Grenade strikes out more and has a little bit more bat speed, a little bit more bad ball oomph, Santander strikes out a little bit less, but might be just as bad defensively. They might both be DHs already. And this is a critical point because you then start to limit who would spend money on somebody that could be a future DH, you know, and you, you limit yourself a little bit with Anthony Santander. I don't necessarily think the smarter teams are, are going to want to spend a lot of money and we, and we may find that with the qualifying offer and the draft pick in there too, that the Dodgers and Mets and Yankees of the world are not that interested in signing

Santander. Right. I have the Nationals landing entity Santander. I think the way I looked at it was if you believe you could possibly make them a first baseman over time, they don't really have first base filled, but more importantly, they don't really have first base filled, but more importantly, they don't really have an obvious source of 500 plate appearances at DH either. So they could use them occasionally in the outfield. You could keep rolling ahead with James Wood, Dylan Cruz, Jacob Young could be a fourth outfielder that plays a lot in center because of his glove, and then Santander is, you know, the other guy that rotates between the outfield and DH.

And then you're getting more thump and you're kind of figuring out the defensive aspects of it later. I'm glad you had the Nationals on your list of teams that have some payroll. I think they're a team that's on the rise with that young core. So if they see a way to close the gap

and become a playoff team right away in 2025 and they think power is the way to get there, Anthony Santander can do that, and he could do it probably for a slightly smaller deal than what Pete Alonso is going to get. I think relatively speaking, there's going to be a little bit of a bump on Alonso in part because of the higher end teams that are interested.

I'm doing an audible here last minute. Yeah, I imagine there's some other stuff kicking around in your head. Where are you going with this one? Well, I put the Royals, but two things happen. Um, we started talking about DH and I was like, they have a DH. They're crowded. Yeah. And also not only do they have sort of Salvador Perez who, who, who,

who's out there sometimes and then Vinnie Pascuantino sometimes DH is, but they also just got Jonathan India Indian a trade who, you know, Fangrass rightfully, I think puts at DH some of the time, um, is a player that is not amazing with the gloves. So they do have Michael Massey at second. So there could be a crowd at DH. Um, even though Fangrass still has the 21st best DH situation, it's not one where I think that they're necessarily going to invest some money. The Diamondbacks, however, are 24th on DH. And what they have primarily at DH is Adrian Del Castillo, who is a catcher,

primarily at DH is Adrian Del Castillo, who is a catcher, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who still has, I think, a little bit of defensive value. And then Blaise Alexander, who is the bottom of the 40 man, like could get DFA'd at some point. Like, I don't know, they tried it and I don't think it worked that amazingly. So I think that they would like to improve on that situation. And I had the Diamondbacks having a little bit of coin in their pocket. I don't know if they made the top of our list, but they have $24 million. And this is the kind of thing where they could improve their offense. I don't see them necessarily throwing more bad money after bad at the rotation, you know, even though you could say, well, they need a pitcher. Do you think right now in Arizona, they're like, uh, at the rotation, you know, um, even though you could say, well, they need a pitcher.

Do you think right now in Arizona, they're like, yes, let's spend some money on a backend pitcher. Cause it's really worked out for us. The last three times we did it. So I could see them being like, Nope, let's just beef up the offense, throw Santander in the mix. He can replace jock Peterson, but also maybe have a little bit more defensive value in the short term. It's tough though, because the Dbacks are

coming off a season in which they led the majors and run scored 886 runs scored. It just blows me away every time I see it. They were tied for third in WRC plus. Jock Peterson is a free agent. So, you know, figuring something out to at least replace him and Christian Peterson is a free agent. So, you know, figuring something out to at least replace him and Christian Walker is a free agent. Those are two important bats in that lineup that exceeded expectations last year. So you do have to at least reunite with one of those guys and then we bring someone else back in to maintain that.

If you want that strength to stay at that sort of level. So I do like that as a call. And something that Dave Cameron once told me a long time ago at Fangrass, which, which resonated with me, which is that, you know, you, when you are improving your team, one of the first instincts, and I still have that instinct is to look for the worst part of the team and try to make it better, but that's not the only way to get better. You can, you can just react to the market and decide, Hey, no one's

offering a task or anything more than three and 45. Like we can, we can do that. You know, we can, we can jump in 350 and boom, we've got a better option than Jack Peterson, maybe for our team fit. So and then you're talking about first base and stuff. So that, you know, maybe they say, well, you're our DH outfield first base guy and we'll see where you fit best.

Yeah. I just think players like this players like Santander and Teasca Hernandez, free agency is not as kind to them as it probably ought to be based on their track records because I think most people project them going forward as having steep drop-offs and it's tough with Teasca because you have this extra disappointing year from a strikeout rate perspective

that he spent in Seattle in 23, talked with difficulty hitting there. Even in a great year with the Dodgers, it's a 28.8% strikeout rate for a guy who's on the wrong side of 30. On the one hand, you're like, okay, there's more swing and miss here than there is with Santander. There's more swing and miss than there is a Pete Alonso. Then you look at the fact that Teasca Hernandez had the highest barrel rate and hard hit rate of that trio. If you look over the past four seasons, so the quality of the contact is high. And his chase rate, which at some point looked like, you know, his, his

propensity to swing it, but pitched outside of the zone looked like at some point it would be something that would really hurt him in the long term, because there were times when he was running, you know, like in Seattle's 38.5%, that's near the top. that's like near the worst chase rates and then what happens is. Contact rate on pitches outside the zone really falls off in the early thirties he's thirty two he's chasing you say this is not a good fit well last year he had a chase rate those right around the guy was just a little worse. So it's not necessarily the chase rate that's the source of swing and miss it's it's the bat speed, the approach. He is trying to hit homers basically. Um, and maybe this is something that, that Moenade is bad, as we think.

I mean, it is plus bat speed is plus power. Um, I also, I just think with the qual. No qualifying offer now he had the qualifying offer in Seattle. Teosca Hernandez. I believe he had the qualifying offer. He got the qualifying offer in Seattle. Teosca Hernandez. I believe he had the qualifying offer. He got the qualifying offer. So I think with that, I think he, I get, I say he comes back to LA. I don't think a lot of teams want to sign a guy that they think is a DH who's 32

and they got to give up a pick to do it. I think the Dodgers are happy to go year to year with Teosca Hernandez, but I think because of Shohei Otani, you don't want to do the multi-year longer term commitment to Teoscar because that's another guy that has to really as much as you can be taken out of the defensive equation if you really want to maximize what he brings to the table. Maybe they think they can make it more passable, but they had a year and he still doesn't look great with the glove. But I see Teoscare fitting in San Francisco.

I think it's similar to your thinking with Pete Alonso. I think they want some power. I think that's something they're going to seek out. I think you pay for what you can't develop. Power is something the Giants really can't develop right now, but that reunion with the Dodgers is solid. It's a new regime, but they tried this with Jorge Saler to some degree. So it's like, they like this type of player.

He is a little bit more of a pull hitter than Alonso. So maybe he's actually, maybe his spray charts fit better and he will cost less. And we don't know how aggressive they're gonna be. You're right. We'll try to go a little faster at the bottom few that we're gonna get to on today's episode. Going back to pitching here, Jack Flaherty, how much?

If you're looking at Fangrass right now today's episode going back to pitching here, Jack Flaherty, how much- If you're looking at Fangrass right now in our YouTube feed, you can see that this is not a guy with above average stuff. Right, and even with that, I mean, 2024 was great for Jack Flaherty, a 310 Sierra, 29.9% K rate. He looked like the guy that the believers said he could be for the last couple of seasons when he struggled

in St. Louis and then got traded to Baltimore. It happened, it's there, it's on the page. It's not gonna be the same in terms of years or dollars as the other top end pitchers go. This is clearly the beginning of tier two. I don't think anybody would debate that. I think what stands out to me is a couple of things. Flaherty has a 389 ERA over the past four seasons combined.

I know health's been a factor, but the velocity. He has the lowest fastball velocity out of the Burns-Fried-Snell group. I see kind of a right-handed Yusei Kikuchi where for a variety of reasons, but health being a bigger one for Flaherty than Kikuchi, where for a variety of reasons, health being a bigger one for Flaherty than Kikuchi, he hasn't been able to get the most out of his talent at various points in his career, but you have to worry about how the fastball velocity

is going to age, right? It's already on the lower end of what you're looking for. Do you have enough confidence in that knuckle curve and in that slider to where Flaherty can keep being something close to a 30-30-30 guy with those three pitches that maybe find an occasional fourth that he uses the guys on each side of the plate. To where you can offset what I assume will continue to be waning fastball velocity, especially in years three and four. Flaherty gets a four-year deal, not so much worried about years one and two, more worried

about years three and four being really bad. Yeah, I just took a peek over at the new stuff plus numbers and it has him a little bit higher, 100 stuff plus so he would actually be a little bit better than that little graph on the right tells you. I do think that the added use of the curve ball has been very interesting with the Dodgers, he used the curve ball more than the slider and he has had this weird progression where it's been away from a pitch that was his best pitch. So I think he is a true three pitch pitcher at this point.

And you have to think that advanced use of the curve ball counts in his favor. And then I just was looking around and I, it just fits the cubs for me in, in just their aura and what they've done in terms of they've been really active in the secondary market and sort of the fifth to 10th best free agents. They've done this a lot and I could see them you know using needing a little bit in the rotation and. Thinking that this was actually the easiest way to spend a little bit of the money they've got and improve and. And not get stuck on the horn for too many years cuz i do think this could end up being a three or four year deal. or four year deal and you would rather a three or four year deal in some front offices and with more question marks than a six or seven year deal that you

feel great about and then you know year two or three they get hurt so I think I think that Flair to the Cubs makes some sense it's probably similar to the deal Jamison Tyon got a couple of off seasons ago right and if it goes well I think that's a reasonable like higher end sort of outcome for what a long-term deal could look like. I think the Cubs make a lot of sense. I like that case that you just outlined. I'll throw the Nationals into the mix here. I think the Nationals make a lot of sense in part because Mike Rizzo has spent a lot more on free agent pitchers in the past, to varying levels of success. I think at the downside, you know, Jordan Zimmerman, obviously on the higher end, we could talk about Patrick Corbin.

That's a short-term hit, long-term miss, but big hits on Scherzer. And, but you know, as bad as the Corbin contract has been, and even the second Strasburg, you know, they did get a title out of it. So, right. Right. Right. No, I think he's, I think he's okay with, I think that what he's shown in the past is I build lineups and I buy rotations.

Yeah. You know, in other words, and it has worked for them. So it's not, why would he necessarily deviate too hard from that? In the meantime, I do think they've spent some resources and time and energy improving their pitching development to be like, Hey, can I buy some rotation and also like make some of my own? And I think they had some success with Mitchell Parker and DJ Hertz this year. They've got Kate Cavalli coming back.

But if you think about a rotation, that's Mackenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, uh, DJ hers and Kate Cavalli, you can add a, you can add a veteran to that. You know, it would make everything better. If one of those guys has to start in the, in the minors, that's fine. You know, they can, if they, if they shove, then they can come up and take somebody's job. So, um, you know, I think that's it's a, I would say that in my defense, the

Cubs backend is a little bit worse than the nationals backend. I mean, you're talking about DJ hers and Kate Cavalli over there. The Cubs right now are going to run out, have your facade and Jordan Wicks. And I would rather have, uh, according to fan graphs. Now they have Ben Brown, Brown, Horton. Yeah, they got some guys. Yeah. So in both cases, what you're doing is buying a veteran to buy yourself time to make decisions on the kids.

You don't want to be like, Oh, Kate Horton, you have to be our opening day. You have to be our fifth guy, you know, as the opening starts. Do you think the nationals, given the money they have, given where they're at, given their needs for a frontline starter, are actually at least contenders for some of the top end pitchers that we talked about? Could they be a team that splashes the money at Burns or Freed or Snell? I don't think that's out of the question. We didn't pick them, but I...

Not at all. And again, my chart, you know, that that should be better. Maybe a three year trend, because if you look at somebody like the nationals, like, okay, last year they spent 130 million, according to fan graphs this year, they have 87, so they have 40 million to spend, but 130 million from the nationals was a chump change for, you know, the middle of their, their run from 2016, uh, to 2019, the average, uh, salary they were spending was 180 million.

So they could look at 80 and be like, Oh dude, we actually have a hundred million to spend, maybe not in one off season, but between now and our peak, we have a hundred million to spend. Yeah. Let's go get Corbin Burns. Let's just like drop Corbin Burns on this team and, and, uh, see what happens. And yeah, I could totally see them being the mystery team on somebody. That's the fairy tale world. I like to live in, but Rizzo has done it before.

So that's why I think it's not out of the question that they could pull something like that. There's a bunch of guys that sort of fit into this bucket. I mean, Sean Manaya came out 12th on the round table, rankings of free agents. I think you could look at Manaya versus Flaherty. I think that's actually a fair sort of toss-up. I think Ivaldi sort of fits into this group.

Maybe Walker Bueller based on what we saw at the very end of the season and the playoffs especially. And then Shane Bieber coming off Tommy John surgery. I think if you're looking at this cluster of pitching, I think all of these guys are probably on the table. In some ways, I think Sean Manaya stands out to me as maybe the best of the tier two in terms of floor, even though I think you could talk yourself into someone like Bieber, maybe having the best ceiling,

everything comes all the way back following TJ. TG I think given their certain, their places where they are, what kind of contracts they're looking for, what they've done, where they are, you know, health wise, I think Shane Bieber to the giants makes too much sense because they're just, um, you know, they're, they're just, uh, uh, the pillow contract capital of the world for pictures. I think that just makes a lot of sense to your deal. Um, like the one Rodone did maybe with an option, maybe not, maybe it's two,

maybe it's three with an option where he can opt out that just, that's the kind of Shane Bieber to the giants that seems to make so much sense then between Manaya, Bueller, um, and E of Aldi. I think it's just really hard to pick, to some extent their contract demands might make an outsize importance for what you want. i think with eevealdi you have a little bit of nervousness about the health because he's had two chamejons already, you just feel like the next one might just be it. So I don't know that I'm giving him. Would you give me of all these three years to maybe three?

But I'm not giving them more than three. I think Sean Maniah could maybe ask for four. Yeah, I think you've all had, say, two with a vesting option for a third might be the the happy medium for me if I'm trying to manage the risk accordingly on that. I wonder if we can look at Shamanaya and say that he has reduced some of the injury concerns from earlier in his career. He's someone that would have an improving health grade over time. That 2023 season with the Giants, the usage was part of why the innings total dipped the way that it did, right? So,

he comes off of a career high 181 and two thirds plus some post season innings for the Mets in 2024. It's back to 2019 since he really had like some injury concerns. Right. Yeah. 179 and a third, the final year in Oakland, 158, the one year he was in San Diego. So I do think there's something similar here. Again, I bring up the Jamison tie-on deal from a few off seasons ago. Like I think that's kind of where Manaya fits for me. I'd be comfortable at that level. Some biomechanists driven teams, some teams that, that, that have advanced biomechanics and listened to their analysts there may not want to sign him.

I do know that there's some concern. Dropping down your arm slot like that. He did it on purpose, so it wasn't necessarily injury related. However, there's been some research that that sort of arm slots is higher stress on the, on the body. And then, then the biomechanist will be the ones that have an opinion about how that arm slot

relates to his trunk position at release. And so there is something there where some teams may feel that that's unhealthy and some teams may feel it's great. So there, there's some advanced knowledge there that may come to bear when it comes to who signs him. Um, I mean, the fact that he did this while with the Mets, um, suggested to me that they're totally cool with the arm slot change, you know? Um, and like I said before, they need to be active at the top, the middle and

the bottom of the starting pitching market. So I've got Maniah going to the Mets and Iavaldi to the Tigers. So I think the Tigers do need to sign a back end pitcher and I just don't know which one it will be. And the Tigers may just try to be opportunistic. I know that Scott Harris as a manager had a reputation, general manager had a reputation for being sort of opportunistic and being the contracts guy. So maybe the Tigers just sign which of the three is cheapest. And that might be Bueller.

It might be Ivaldi. It might be Ivaldi actually, but it might be Bueller. I kind of doubt that it's Manaya. So that's why I'll give Metz the sort of high priced backend guy. I'll give the Tigers the cheapest one. And I have no idea where Bueller is, but he's not the top 15. So we don't have to tell you. Yeah, we can save that for a future episode,

but I have Manaya go into the Tigers. I think there's something about his approach that kind of fits what I think Scott Harris wants to do, adding some depth to that rotation. I think another lefty behind Scoobble might be good. I think we're going to see a lot of Jackson Job this year, Reese Olsen being healthy, you get your two big righties there. I think that gives them a little bit of balance and gives them some much needed volume so they're not bullpenning quite as hard as they were throughout the second half of the season. Of course, some of that was from trading Jack Flaherty.

So they could sign too. They could sign someone like Manaya and go into the bucket. I mean, part of the thing with Comerica is that it's another good pillow place. That's why they got Jack Flaherty, right? I think that's part of it is you can be appealing to the guys that want to test free agency again a year from now and you can take advantage of your home park. And if you got Chris Fetter and you believe in your organizational pitching development, I think you can pitch that really effectively to guys trying to maximize their stuff too.

I can see it being Bueller. Yeah. Because Bueller gets to go to a place that is up and coming and maybe they can make him some pitches with what they would do in terms of his biomechanics or his, um, his pitch mix or whatever. And it would be a good park for him. Yeah. I could see, I could see it being Bueller with like a, uh, uh, three year deal where he can opt out after two or something like that, you know, yeah. Pillow-y, pillowy type deal too.

I just don't think, you know, even though I did declare San Francisco, the ca the pillow contract, I don't. Something about Bueller Dodgers, like, you know, he's a bit of a front step or two, like, you know, top step or two. So I don't, don't see him signing with the Dodgers. Maybe I could be wrong. I mean, money, money, money talks, but. Money talks.

I am going to throw Nathan Evaldi to the Cubs. I think we're both in agreement. The Cubs are going to do something on the pitching side. You had him take Flaherty. I have them going after Nathan Evolving. Yeah, it was kind of interesting. Cause he used to be this like guy who threw a really hard, really straight fastball at the beginning of his career.

And it was always worse than you expected, given the VLO he had and what looked like his stuff. Then he figured out how to sort of hide the fastball by throwing a ton of splitters and sliders, and he became basically a junker baller that also could throw 99 and then he got hurt again and now He's been pretty steady as a guy who's slightly above average V lo sort of 95 But big pitch mix guy and kind of a command and pitch mix guy who can throw 96, you know And it's been good where it's been at

But I think he you know given the surgeries on his arm, you don't know that you expect him to bounce back after the next one. Yeah, no, that's fair. I mean, the age is still younger than you think. He's 34, he turns 35 in February. But I think the per inning numbers could still be pretty good for Nathan Ivaldi. The other pitcher that fits into this bucket is Yuse say, Kikuchi, he's off the board. And to be honest, I wouldn't have put him on the angels anyway. So I'm sort of grateful that he signed before the episode because I would have been wrong. We've just been wrong. Just would have been wrong.

I mean, I think it makes sense. The angels needed pitching and I think we both like Kikuchi. I think the only thing from just a how does this go perspective is the angels, especially with pitching have not struck me as an organization that gets the most out of its talent. That is one area that they do not do well in. So whereas I was pretty excited about Kikuchi possibly landing with an air quotes smart team this winter, the fact that they didn't just give me some gives me some pause about expecting much more than what we got in 2023 and good

numbers like a below four ERA kind of a league average whip, good number of innings, good number of case. I just don't know if you're going to get the best of Kikuchi over a full season the way that I was sort of dreaming on when free agency started. Yeah, Kikuchi for whatever reason lost in the updated stuff numbers and is now more of a average stuff guy than a really plus stuff guy. I don't know if that really fits what I believe of him because you can see the strikeout rates have been really good for Kikuchi. And it's just been the balls and play, but stuff has something to do with balls and play as well. So maybe there is something about his pitches that leads to hard hit rates.

And it's not just the command like we previously thought. So I think he'll still be fine. I actually, I, you know, I don't want to say just because the angels signed him, it's a bad deal. I think it's actually, it's a great deal. You know, that thing, that's the best thing they've done all off seasons. I just, you can't just be like, well, they're a dumb, they're a dumb team. So it must be a dumb deal. I mean, it's three, 360 for a guy that worse end is going to be the worst, worst outcome for Kikuchi is he gives you 400 innings of league average, kind of third or fourth starter for the next three years, that kind of be worth $60 million. A hundred percent.

Yeah. I don't think the actual deal itself is the problem. It's more just like that fantasy ceiling. That's not quite what I was hoping for for maximizing what Kikuchi could be. But I think from a real life perspective, it's yet another move the Angels made. Or I'm like, yeah, okay, that's fine.

I think they're having a good off season so far, which is not something people always say about how the Angels are operating. They may be the early movers though. I don't see them having a ton more money left and I don't see them buying at the very top. So they just identified some people that made sense for their team and went and got them and that might be it for a little bit.

I don't hate the get your guys approach though to free agency, especially if you're going to avoid having four or five other teams pushing throughout the winter for the players that you like. You waited out Christian Walker. We talked about the Diamondbacks in passing a few minutes ago. I mean, a little cheaper potentially than some of the power bats we talked about earlier.backs in passing a few minutes ago. I mean, a little cheaper potentially than some of the Powerbats we talked about earlier. I just see him going back to Arizona.

Do you actually see him leaving? Like, do you think Pavin Smith is going to be the primary first baseman, like in a platoon situation for the Dbacks in a world where Christian Walker goes elsewhere? You know, this has a little bit of something to do with like the rankings. And I, you know, I'm not trying to disparage the rankings at all.

They're, they're great. And there's just so much good work in there. I just personally, I think Teoscar and Antenna Santander are more backend options than our rankings have them as suggestions. And I would have Walker ahead of them, you know, because I just, you know, his combination of plus walk rate, plus strikeout rate and plus batted ball stats is something that's not replicated necessarily by Walker or Santander.

You know what I mean? Like they each do like two of the three things, but Walker does all three of the things. It's also not a bad defender either. He's not getting hammered in defensive value the way like even Pete Alonso does. Yeah, and we tried to make Santander a first baseman. Walker is a first baseman.

So I could see Walker being more expensive than Tejas Curnandes and Anthony Santander. And I could see the Dbacks being like, well, we're gonna take a little bit less expensive one. And I think, you know, maybe if there's a team that they're the paystop freight, it's the Soto less Yankees. And so they would have a need at first base Christian Walker would be the

obvious guy. And maybe it wouldn't be a very long deal cause Walker's older, but I think by AV it would probably beat Santander or, or, or it's longer and Santander is shorter, you know? So either way, I could see the Yankees, Santander is shorter, you know, so either way I could see the Yankees deciding that, you know, doing something about first base is what they do post Soto. All right, you got Walker to the Yankees. I've got him staying in Arizona. That leaves us with Hassan Kim is our last player for today's episode. Where does Kim land when the dust settles? We know the start of his 2025 season will be delayed

coming off of shoulder surgery, but there aren't a lot of short stops available and at least you're getting a glove first guy who's shown at times some intriguing skills at the plate. Yeah, I mean, we right now on there have the same thing. So I'm gonna let you have San Francisco. All right. I'm gonna let you have San Francisco. We already have some smoke, some rumors that they're interested. I think he seems like a Giants type player. He can play

multiple positions. They said they want to move Tyler Fitzgerald off shortstop. He can play shortstop. He's a very good defender. And so if you start looking at the bottom of the shortstop group, you know, in terms of depth charts, and the Gi you, you start looking at the bottom of the shortstop group, uh, you know, in terms of depth charts and the giants kind of stick out as a team that wants to be competitive, we'll spend some money and, uh, is in the bottom half of the depth charts. Other teams that stick out for me though, um, are the Braves and the Brewers. Um, as teams that could want to do something at shortstop.

Now, maybe the Braves are just fine with Orlando Arcia hanging out there, but the Brewers just lost their shortstop. Even if they move Joey Ortiz too short, they could use another infielder and the Brewers love defense. And so I could see them making a little bit of a splash. I think that Haseom Kim is, um, not going to get a lot of money because the shoulder thing is definitely, you don't normally want to give somebody a lot of money or a lot of years coming right off of a shoulder surgery before he's played again.

He's also not a guy who showed plus plus offense. It was more about his defense. Um, and so I think he could be in the brewers price range. So brewers or giants, uh, I'm going to pick, uh, brewers to diversify our chat or our attack here. I like it. Yeah. They definitely need one more infielder.

I think the way Joey Ortiz and Bryce Durang can play defense up the middle at a high level gives them some flexibility. Kim giving them another guy like that could make a lot of sense, especially at a discount. I think if the Brewers are interested, throw the Raisin as a Dark Horse here, where, hey, you know, like they could use a shortstop and he plays all over, and if they have another shortstop they like better later, Kim plays somewhere else, and they trade them lots of options to go that route. There was a trade over the weekend that we kind of knew was coming. It was already rumored to be happening before it happened.

We've been talking about this at the Discord for a while. Yeah, Brady Singer ends up with the Reds. Jonathan India and Joey Weimer go back to Kansas City. I think that's fine for both teams, actually. I mean, I think the park adjustment for Singer makes him a lot less viable from a fantasy perspective. But the Reds get some innings. Park adjustment for Singer makes him a lot less viable from a fantasy perspective. But the Reds get some innings. I think India being an O.B.P.

guy whose power wasn't as boosted by Great American Ballpark as I expect. I looked at the splits like I think it was a slight lean with more power. A great American ballpark. I don't think that's his game. So I think his his approach will translate OK to a less Hitler friendly environment. So I could see this being a win win. Weimers kind of a wild card because he's, he looked better in center field than I expected him to in Milwaukee when they drafted him. I thought he was more of a corner guy, but once I watched him play center, he's at least a bench center fielder. So I think this is one of those trades that is fine for both sides.

441 slugging home for India, 381 away for his career. I think that's actually a little bit significant because my problem with Jonathan India is that I distrust OBP without SLG. And we've talked about where he sits on the bail rate curve. It may be, maybe he's more Bregman than I give him credit for, but for whatever reason, and we've talked about this a lot, Bregman, you know, you know, pulls his fly balls does, has a power approach.

I mean, we're looking at ISOs here for the last three years for Jonathan India, 130, 163, and 144. three years for Jonathan India, 130, 163 and 144. If the park pushes that ISO down to 110, 120, I think that affects his OPP. I think then pitchers fill up the in the middle of zone and then his passiveness. Um, you know, Jonathan India is pretty legendarily passive. He's one of the lowest swingers in the league. Um, you know, 38% swing percentage is lower than Joey Vato's swing percentage most years, uh, as a Cincinnati red.

So if you fill up the zone against him, because you don't trust, you don't, um, you know, respect his power. Um, I could see, you know, his walk rate going down, his OPP going down, and this not really looking good. He also showed up as a sub two win player in full year projections. Um, so I just, I don't really like this trade from either side. I see these players as both kind of one win players. Um, and, uh, they wouldn't have, they wouldn't be that interesting on the market.

I guess that makes them a good fit for each other. And they'd maybe just better fits on their new teams. I get that part. I get that the OBP has been pretty low out of the leadoff slot for the, for the Royals and they needed to improve their bats somehow. So I get it. I guess I just, from the fantasy standpoint, I want shares in neither of these players going forward.

I wonder if this makes Chris Bubich back into the rotation, a very likely thing though for the Royals, which could be nice for some very, very, very deep leagues out there if you took a late flyer on Bubich at the end of 2024. And it also is worth pointing out that, you know, if you've got Kyle Wright, Chris Boobich, Daniel Lynch, Alec Marsh on the back end of the Royals rotation, and you've got some more innings out of, out of their back end situations there and, and sign a starting pitcher again. And the Royals in particular, uh, are coming off a pretty legendary Lugo Waka, uh, off season. So they may feel like they, they can do this well and, and, and sign somebody for, you know, two, three year deal to, to deal to come in and provide those innings that Singer was supposed to give them. Yeah, it's a great point.

And there's a ton of other free agents that are available that we could talk about on a future episode. So if you like the format, let us know on Discord that you dug this episode and we can maybe make another one or possibly two if we have to get to the bottom of the free agent pool. It's fun to make predictions, fun to dig into these players in detail. You can join the Discord using the link in the show description. You can find Eno on blue sky at EnoSaris.Bsky.social.

I think they got to work on the nomenclatures over there. It's a little bit of a mouthful to throw that out there. I'm just DVR.Bsky.social if you're looking for us over there. But Discord is a good way to connect. Drop us some questions in that mailbag. I saw a few piling up. We'll do a nice mailbag episode soon. It's a one episode week for us with the holiday coming up here in the states on

Thursday, if you're celebrating Thanksgiving, hope you have a nice time with friends, family, having a good meal, you know, hope you enjoy the time with your family this year as well. Oh yeah. Got a splatscock, two turkeys got to rip their spines out and make a nice, make a nice meal for people. All right. Well, that's going to do it for this episode of rates a nice, make a nice meal for people. All right. Well, that's going to do it for this episode of rates and

barrels for back with you next week. Thanks for watching!