Rates & Barrels - World Series Reliever Rankings & Critical Matchups

Episode Date: October 23, 2024

Eno, DVR, Trevor discuss the passing of Fernando Valenzuela, whose dominant 1981 season led to Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award honors in the same campaign and spurred 'Fernandomania' in Los Ange...les. Plus, they dig into reliever rankings for the World Series and critical matchups that each team will be focused on during the Fall Classic.  Rundown 0:59 Fernando Valenzuela Passes Away at Age 63 5:21 Reliever Rankings for the World Series: Who Is No. 1? 15:59 Evan Phillips' Difficult Matchup with the Yankees' Bats 20:12 Tommy Kahnle's Extremely Heavy Changeup Usage 28:08 The Yankees' Lack of Power Lefties in the Bullpen 37:27 Uncertainty Around Nestor Cortes Jr.'s Availability & Role 44:22 Critical Matchups That Could Swing the Series Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Trevor on Twitter: @IamTrevorMay e-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.com Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris With: Trevor May Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Wednesday, October 23rd. Derek VanRyper, Unicaris, Trevor May here with you. Welcome back, Trevor. How are you doing? I am good, rested and ready to go. Relatively rested. Well, congratulations on the new addition to your family. We're glad to have you back on this episode.
Starting point is 00:00:32 We're going to rank the relievers on the World Series rosters. Yesterday, we went through the process of ranking the pitchers we expect to see as starters. We're going to dig into a few critical matchups that could swing the series as well, which kind of ties into how we would rank these relievers. There might be a couple of vulnerabilities that each of these lineups can exploit if
Starting point is 00:00:52 the right situations arise. So a lot of tactical talk, a lot of reliever talk on this pod. Some sad news though, as we get started today, we learned on Tuesday of the passing of Fernando Valenzuela, he passed away at the age of 63. A Dodgers legend who brought Fernando mania in 1981, won the rookie of the year and Cy Young award that same season, six time all star. And a guy that was a huge influence on the Latino community in L.A. brought a ton of fans to the ballpark.
Starting point is 00:01:22 I think that was a huge part of it. Also put his home country really on the map as a place where big league players were going to come from going forward too. So massive impact, big loss in not only just the Dodgers community, but in the baseball community as well. A lot of folks don't know
Starting point is 00:01:37 Fernando Villanueva also was part of that broadcast crew since 2003 with legendary announcer Jaime Harin too. So a huge part of the Dodgers organization. I feel like jealous that I missed out on Fernando mania because it sounds like something that would happen today and get kind of like overused in social media and SEO Optimization but was actually just a larger-than-life sort of phenomenon when it happened back in the 80s. I agree. I love that stuff. I mean, that's what would have made those types of things. These
Starting point is 00:02:12 bigger than life characters in the game was what made me love it so much. I also attribute that to why I love movies so much. I'm a big hero's journey underdog, you know, grind your way to the top. It cream always rises top type of guy. And, um, like I would have just ate that up. He probably would have been my, I would, it would have been, I would have loved him. Um, and every single time something like that happens, uh, I get excited, but like you said, it does get a little like, is this a real thing or are we forcing this to be a thing now?
Starting point is 00:02:45 And it's, that's not as fun anymore. And also I'm going to, I'm a grown up and things get a little bit less magical. But, uh, I just, yeah, it's something that, you know, it would be nice to have, not have social media and relive that kind of a word of mouth, you know, legendary status that happened. Um, that would, that's really cool. I also just love that it's not came out of nowhere, but you know, it's like this, like we have this such this pipeline of baseball America, top 100 lists and all this like sort of fascination with prospects. So I bet you to some Dodgers fans and to some people this was like who's this kid you know and then to win the side young and the rookie the year in the same year no one's ever done that and for him to do that side young to me a lot of times is like the oscars were like you have to actually have your oscar winning performance. before you win the Siong. You know, like you kind of have to get into the group that people consider possible Siong. No, he was just like, nah, I'm here.
Starting point is 00:03:47 I give it to me. And, uh, you know, some of the things that kind of, you might look at his strikeout rate that year and be like, oh, eight K nine, you know, you know, in our years that's, but that was 1981. So if you actually look at the plus stats, which are like, um, the, you know, what was his strikeout rate relative to the league? It's a top 40. That's a top 40 strikeout rate relative to his league in the history of baseball. And it comes in his rookie season.
Starting point is 00:04:17 And it's, you know, the people ahead of him are all Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Pedro Martinez. Pedro Martinez, 2002 is the one that's tied with him. Um, and it's, it's a ton of Nolan Ryan and, uh, Roger Clements and Randy Johnson. So, um, you know, it may not look like a Nolan Ryan strikeout rate. It may not look like a Pedro Martinez strikeout rate, uh, but it was, and it was such a glorious time.
Starting point is 00:04:42 There was, you know, like a two month streak where you gave up like three runs. You know, it's like, can you imagine just, it's like, it's like skeins, but, but there's an element of like, who is this guy? As opposed to the skeins were all like, saw it coming. Like where skeins, why isn't skeins up yet? You know, where skeins, why isn't skeins better? How did this happen? Why did skeins give up a run yesterday?
Starting point is 00:05:06 Like the expectations are completely different in today's day and age, of course, with all the information we have at our disposal. Dodgers are going to honor Valenzuela prior to the start of game one at Dodger Stadium on Friday. So let's start with the reliever rankings today. Let's dig into these because there's, I think a lot of weight being placed on both bullpens. The Dodgers more so than the Yankees
Starting point is 00:05:31 because they've been bullpenning at times just to get up to this point. 60% of their outs have been from the bullpen. It's much more than anyone would have anticipated back when the season began. They've done this at times in the past and had success doing it. But we've wondered with every team that does this,
Starting point is 00:05:49 are there diminishing returns as each round gets more difficult, as each matchup you face has more quality bats in the lineup against you? Is there going to be decay? Is there going to be fatigue? I think all those questions are real. And the way I wanted to frame this question was, how would you rank these relievers just based on everything we have to account for right now? Recent workloads, maybe injuries guys could be coming back from
Starting point is 00:06:13 for some guys that may end up on the roster. If we get to a point where the series is on the line for either one of these teams and you need someone to come in and just get the last three outs, and let's assume it's the top of the opposing lineup that you're going against. So no, no easy path out of all the relievers in this series, Trevor, who do you want taking the ball to finish out a game in this series? I will go
Starting point is 00:06:39 at this moment. Probably Blake Trinen, just because of the way that the lineups are set up and the type of repertoire he has versus the other way around. Um, I think just how it matches up. It's really close between Trinen and Weaver at the moment for me, just because, uh, of the way he uses his change up and how that's the best against Otani and Betts. But, um, trying has been really, really good. And he's just like, he's like a magician watching this ball
Starting point is 00:07:14 fly out of his hand is crazy. And then he's had, he's had the experience, he has the experience over Weaver. So, uh, I'll just give him a slight edge and he's thrown really well lately. So, um, and he's throwing lots of strikes. So Phillips is walking a little bit too many guys in my opinion. So yeah, I'll go with. I'll go with Blake Triton. Yeah, I think one of the keys for the top end relievers in the series
Starting point is 00:07:36 is going to be getting lefties and righties out naturally. It always is. And part of that's because you're not getting that much of an advantage relative to other lineups, because the're not getting that much of an advantage relative to other lineups because the elite hitters in both of these lineups handle lefties and righties really well. So you have to be good as a reliever against hitters on both sides because you're facing some of the absolute best hitters on the planet. You know, are you taking Trinen in that same situation that I described for Trevor? One thing that makes me a little bit nervous is that
Starting point is 00:08:04 he throws a sinker. And so I'm kind of looking for the best four seamer because I do think that fastball will play better against both hands, just like you're talking about. So for me, I think the decision between the best two is actually between Kopec and Weaver. Those are the two best four seamers in this postseason and they're nasty. They're at their froggiest. They're looking pretty good. Weaver's, you know, a little bit more overused or over.
Starting point is 00:08:35 I don't know what the word is. Just been used more has been used for more outs, you know, has, um, has pitched more. Maybe running up against, you know, that first time as a reliever, you're like, wow, this is different than starting, you know, like this is his first. Full year as a reliever, you know, with that schedule, maybe he's, maybe there's a little bit of like, you know, there was, you know, the end of that guardian series, there was a little bit of like, oh, he seems a little bit more hittable than he has, you know, for most of the season.
Starting point is 00:09:06 But I'm going to give it to Weaver over Kopec because Kopec is still pretty wild. And we saw that with his opening sequence in that final game that you can wait them out a little bit. You can you can go to the you know, and Adam Audivino has talked to me about this where it's like, you know, there's a difference between, you know, he had, Adam said his worst season was the season in which batters came to the plate and said, I don't need to be aggressive. I need to wait. He needs to throw me a strike before, before I sort of wake up. Like he, I'm going to wait till he makes me swing as opposed to the best years of Ottavino's careers. when people came to the plate and said I need to be aggressive and get to
Starting point is 00:09:48 The fastball before I get that breaking ball. So that whole idea of swinging I think with Kopec maybe you know These pretty patient Yankee hitters can wait him out. I could in particular see Kopec versus Soto Being an interesting matchup where Soto's like, nope, nope, nope. Oh, that one was actually, you know, four inches lower than he wanted it. And I just hit it out, even though it was super nasty. So I'm going to take Weaver. I love that change up because he can throw it to both sides. He's throwing the cutter more and he has the best or second best for scene, uh, in the,
Starting point is 00:10:24 in the group of players that we're looking at. Yeah. Those were the two I was kind of stuck on. I think Trinen's effectiveness against lefties was something that put him over the top for me for the top spot. But I think it's one, two Trinen. We give it for me. The concerns you outlined about Copac are very real. And here's the broader question before we kind of get into a few more names. When you see a chart of the stuff plus numbers for this year's world series teams, we've got it up on YouTube if you're actually watching,
Starting point is 00:10:51 but their post-season stuff plus only, it's a snapshot of where they are right now. I think that's probably the better way to do it at this point. I mean, you mentioned weaver's workload of guys who've been used as relievers this post-season. He's worked the most, he's recorded the most outs now. The Cade Smith was number two. But both of these lineups, both the Yankees and the Dodgers are so good at making swing decisions
Starting point is 00:11:15 that I think bad command is more problematic now than it is at any point in the season, mostly because of who these teams are. This happens every year, every way, anyway, but I think it's even more extreme given this matchup. Yeah. I think despite Trinen's relatively lackluster stuff, plus the, you know, the one-on-one location plus and the overall pitching plus being good, um, I would
Starting point is 00:11:39 have him right, uh, right around, uh, I think I'd have him after Copac, honestly, cause I want that stuff. I would just want, I would tell him, throw it close to the zone and just try to blow it by them rather than be super fine. I don't think that's really going to work. And so I have trying in fourth. So it's basically a Weaver third Weaver Copac trying in third. Yeah. But the fourth spot, the fourth spot, Kopec, Trinen third. Yeah. But the fourth spot, the fourth spot, see the thing that was interesting here is
Starting point is 00:12:10 that I think the, the, even if I give the Yankees, the number one reliever, you start to see the Dodgers depth because I'm going to go Kopec, Trinen, probably Phillips, you know, I'm going to go three Dodgers in a row before I get to a Yankee. The key with Phillips is both his location plus isn't above average on this one. I think it's because he has to be fine with the sweeper against lefties. And so he's willing to walk a lefty because he doesn't want to put that sweeper in the happy zone. And in particular, I circled this matchup, Evan Phillips against both lefties and righties, just Evan Phillips against the Yankees. This may not be the Dodgers best look.
Starting point is 00:12:51 I found that the Yankees were top 10 in terms of a whiff rate and having a good whiff rate slugging most of his most outputs for lefties and righties against sweepers. So, and I, and the search that I did was sweepers with more than 14 inches of sweep. So this isn't just like blah sweepers or all sweepers. This is closer to Phillips level sweepers. The Yankees are pretty good at them. They see them pretty well. Soto is going to see that sweeper. I think you want to keep Phillips away from Soto.
Starting point is 00:13:27 So now we're dwindling the number of pitchers you want Soto to see. So, you know, who do you pitch against Soto, especially if Alex Vesia is not in there, if who do you pitch against Soto is going to be a big problem for the, for, for the Dodgers. They had Vesia, man, That would be, they just need him. That's what you want. So that's a, yeah, that's a big deal. I agree with that fullheartedly.
Starting point is 00:13:52 I mean, I have Trine and then Weaver. I would say I would probably go with two more Dodgers with Kopec and then Phillips. Kopec just because of pure, you know, pure stuff, you know, his, the thing that, that, that he does, he has a little bit of a tendency and I went and looked into this the same, similarly to like a guy like Ryan Stanek who has also very, very good stuff, is when they, when things aren't fully, like things have snowballed on them fairly quickly, I think they both haven't really found that like lockdown
Starting point is 00:14:26 for a, you know, 10 straight outings in a row. They're really good for eight. And then they have a couple just where they're just nowhere near. And in the playoffs, it's something that gives me a little bit of pause with Copic, but he does have the best stuff out of anybody in any of the bullpens.
Starting point is 00:14:39 And so that's just going to make him a weapon. And then also with Vessia gone, I think that his four seam against Soto is Your best option. They're gonna go to that a lot even like Banda who's the lefty he's sinker slider like That's not gonna be as good against Soto as you think like sinkers are just he loves them so it's it's I would say I would put Copic and then I throw Phillips just because he's Gonna be interchangeable. And if that sweeper is on, maybe not having, but not having, you know, not Soto per se,
Starting point is 00:15:13 but I think Stanton and Judge, if his sweepers on, even if they see it well and are not chasing it off the plate, if he can get it in the zone and get it off the plate, it's just one of those pitches that you're just not gonna, no matter how disciplined you are, if he's get it in the zone and get it off the plate it's just one of those pitches that you're just not gonna no matter how disciplined you are if he's dialed in it's just not hittable and he's gonna be deployed against them who are the other two guys that need to really not beat you so if he can keep them and even labor Torres to an extent so like the four of the three of the first four guys Evan Phillips will be the guy they want the face at times and so I think that just puts them a little bit above another Yankees guy,
Starting point is 00:15:45 which it's close, but if I'm going to go to the Yankees, um, there's going to be a couple of them next. Yeah. I think the problem with Phillips is a lot of the Yankees, even though they haven't seen them much collectively have had a ton of success. I mean, the one guy Phillips has eaten up is a guy that hasn't even taken a plate appearance yet. It's Trent Grisham.
Starting point is 00:16:03 I think Trent Grisham is over eightisham's 0-4-8 with five Ks. And that's factored into an overall number, an 1137 ERA for Evan Phillips against current Yankees, and that's with an 0-4-8 from Trent Grisham in there. So there are a lot of difficult matchups for Phillips in particular. It does make me wonder if his arsenal just does not work as well in the spot. And that leaves the Dodgers in a tricky, at least a tricky spot. If they need multiple appearances against the heart of the order, like if they can only use him maybe one time through the top three or two through four hitters and
Starting point is 00:16:38 then say, okay, we burned Evan Phillips one time, we're not going to give them multiple looks at him because they match up so well against him. Yeah. here's the here's what's so difficult about the modern game. So, you know, I'm writing about a pitching plan for this series that's going to come out on Friday. And what we found recently is that the third time you see a reliever is almost worse in a single series is almost worse than the third time you see a starting pitcher in one game. Batters have an 800 OPS the third time they see a reliever in a series. That's way too high. That is huge. That's higher even than what lefties hit off of righties with the platoon advantage in the regular season. This is 800 is a big number. When you see that, that's almost like when we talk about Trevor,
Starting point is 00:17:26 like when you see 60% tendency, you're like, Whoa, so 800. You're like, what is that? Like, I don't want my reliever. Like, especially if you're talking about Soto and judge, you don't want, even if you think Evan Phillips is good against Stanton and judge. I agree. You kind of don't want to get in that 800 period. Like, you don't want to have Evan Phillips come up with game six or game seven on the line. And it's like the fourth time the judge has seen him.
Starting point is 00:17:52 You know, like I think then you're like, oh, he's, he's seen this. He's been, he's been practicing. He's had the trajectory going like he, he's, he's about ready to take one of these. So the difficulty is with the way we're using bullpens, you need to get through the heart of the order twice in your wins. So that's eight times in four wins, right? And let's say you have a close game, you lose. Maybe that's five games where you want to use your A bullpen. So that's down 10 times that you need to see Soto and you need to get them out 10 times.
Starting point is 00:18:27 So you, and you don't want to use the same guy three or four times. So you're like, this is a math problem. You know, like so for Stanton and Judge, I fully agree that Adam Phillips is one of the, is, you know, you can get them out. Maybe three times, maybe three times with Evan Phillips. Then Michael Kopeck, six. Still missing like three to four. Trump's got to close and yeah, like somewhat, you know.
Starting point is 00:18:54 That's why, that's why I think Daniel Hudson is also a big one. That's a big deal. I think I put them after Evan Phillips. I like Tommy Conley. I, I like who's the, who's I like clay homes actually. Um, but Daniel Hudson has been throwing three miles an hour faster in the postseason than he did in September. And I thought something's wrong with Daniel Hudson and he's become, uh, if
Starting point is 00:19:22 you look at this, the stuff plus list, he's got one 23 stuff plus in the playoffs just behind him and Phillips. He's super huge because he's that other righty. He's that third righty. That's going to get in there. Uh, and then you use Ryan Brazier, I think as like, uh, you know, to try and keep everyone from three, so those are your four righties that you're going to use against Stanton and judge and you're going to, and you're, you want to use Brazier last, you know, it's a, and you're, you want to use brazier last.
Starting point is 00:19:46 You know, it's a, it's a, it's a mix and match thing. So I think the next part of the ranking that's tough is Hudson versus homes and, um, and, uh, and Conley, I think they're all decent. They're all pretty good. I'm a little, are you at all nervous Trevor May that, that Tommy Conley has gone to 100% change-ups in the last series? So there's one interesting thing about that, and I talked about it the other day on my show,
Starting point is 00:20:16 that everyone's like, how can you get away with throwing that many change-ups in a row? Now we understand the Lance McCullers curve ball. A curve ball is a, you know, it breaks so much. Or the mo-cutter, right? Yeah, or like a weird moving pitch that you can throw all the time. But a change-up, once you know a change-up's coming,
Starting point is 00:20:34 you're supposed to be able to dial it in. The thing is though, his variation, well, so I went and looked, the variation of his vertical on the pitch has been all over the place. So sometimes he's throwing a true two seam, So sometimes he's throwing like a true two seam and sometimes he's throwing a straight up splitter and it's the same V-Lo. The nice thing is too about that is as you get used
Starting point is 00:20:54 and the more pitches you throw, fatigue affects the change of the least. You know, your spin goes down, great. V-Lo goes down, great. It moves more, great. It's just command at that time. So there is but like against the Guardians the Dodgers are a different team. Mookie you can't just sit there and go change up change up change up change up to Mookie Betts and get him get himself out all the time. So
Starting point is 00:21:19 he's gonna be limited as well. However However, there's this other side of things, which actually puts Kainly higher than Clay Holmes for me, is because Mookie Betts is his worst pitch for variety is by far the change up. It's not- That was what we used in the how to get Mookie Betts out second we did. Yeah. He hammer sliders and sinkers and Clay Holmes throws only those two pitches. And if he can't locate a sinker, he's feeding one of the best slider
Starting point is 00:21:47 hitters ever sliders and he has no other options. Haley at least can throw a pitch that he doesn't handle as well. Even when he knows it's coming. Same thing with Ohtani. Ohtani hits sliders and fastballs, uh, sinkers and, and depth sliders like what Clay Holmes throws better than he hits change ups overall. I mean, he hits everything hard, but again, it, but it comes down to, are they just going to sell out for the pitch or not?
Starting point is 00:22:07 And how much does that have effect with it? I just think his repertoire are the same way that Weaver is a fastball, he's got a cutter too, but his changeup and fastball, four seam are his bread and butter. Those things line up against those two guys much better than say the other way around with, with sliders against the Yankees.
Starting point is 00:22:24 I'd say the changeups for the, for the. I'd say the changeups for the Yankees against the Dodgers might have a better chance of neutralizing the guys that you don't want to beat you better than the other way around. But they also have grown more. So there's a how rested will they be? They've had five days off, so, you know, that should get you good. But then again, your brain might say, hey, man, it's the off season. That happens sometimes. We were like rusty as hell. And you come back and you're like, what's going on? It's because your body's
Starting point is 00:22:51 like, Hey man, we're supposed to be on the flight home. Like, what are we, what are we doing here? So it'll be interesting to see, but I will say, I will say, I will put Kaylee even above the heavy homes. But it does concern me. He's's gonna have to throw a fastball to the Dodgers, you're just not gonna be able to do that the same way. Or at least, at the usage he's had, you're not gonna be able to do it two, three days in a row. You're gonna have to be a different guy one of these days. One thing that you just said that was really fascinating
Starting point is 00:23:21 that I don't think I've ever noticed before is, I do think maybe he has two different change-ups. Yeah. I mean, you're talking about the variance on the change-ups. It almost looks like there's a different cluster on a savant page. If you just look at the top of his savant page, they now have this movement profile. It almost looks like there's a different cluster of change-ups that's about four inches less ride than the other cluster of change ups. Yeah. I think he throws a Vulcan. He throws the middle, the split in the middle fingers, like the, you know, Spock. Um, and he might split his fingers out farther. You can tell
Starting point is 00:23:54 when he taps, like some of them are really, really split. He's like trying to turn it into a split change. And then the other one might be a little bit more restraint, more like I'm going to get a strike or something like a sinker. Yeah, a little bit closer. Use of fingers are together. The more you're going to put force on the ball, that's like more like like a sinker, they are going to put more Velo on the ball. So it's going to be harder and straighter. It'll be a little bit more true.
Starting point is 00:24:16 So you're yeah, it won't be like dropping off the table would be more gradual. You'll be able to command it a little bit better, but it's still has changed up. And he's got such a good feel. I just don't think he's that confident in his fastball either right now. His VELO has just kind of done this all year and he's used to throwing 98. So that sometimes happens as well. But when you got it and it's working, go for it, I guess. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:24:38 I mean, I like maybe Holmes a little bit ahead just because I think people are going to pound that great thing to the ground. They may make contact, but I think, I think with all the seamstriped wake, he's the seamstriped wake God. When it comes to that sinker, I think that no matter how many times you put that on trajectory, I don't, I don't know that the trajectory can nail seamstriped wake, you know, like that's a pretty, that's a really fine, precise thing to ask of it.
Starting point is 00:25:00 And, um, and it also has to do a little bit with deception of how the ball comes out, how the ball spinning, um, and how it moves and how the looks out of the hand and the trajectory can't really, it doesn't give you ball out of hand because it can't, it has to spit out of a hole at some point. So I think that, you know, to some extent, clay Holmes is still like a little bit of an ace in the hole where he's like, you got two guys on base. You got some righties coming up, you know, throw clay homes and try to get that ground ball.
Starting point is 00:25:28 He's a little bit like Tyler Rogers on the giants. We're like, it's a little bit frustrating as a closer because people make contact, you know, because they, you know, you want more swing and miss. Um, but it's really good as like an eighth inning guy or a guy who can come on with people on base in this sort of old old school like I need a double play kind of idea So I do have both those guys right around Hudson I think that's a really hard group to to to separate each of them has their own strengths The other thing that I would use Connelly for is it is it canley?
Starting point is 00:26:00 It's Cainley Cainley the other thing I'd use Cainley for is You know when you're talking about the left, the way I was talking about the righties and you know, you have to get them out 10 times or whatever, you know, you got to, you got to circle Shohei Otani basically by himself or Shohei Otani and Max Muncie. Freddie Freeman is a little bit like, wait till he's, you see what he's doing, but you know, they're going to put Freddie Freeman in between Muncie and Shohei. So you've got this weird sort of five batter group with, you know,
Starting point is 00:26:30 Shohei at the top and Muncie at the bottom. That's just, that's where you're like, Oh, what do I do against those lefties? And, you know, we're talking about Nestor Cortez, you know, on the athletic today as, you know, that's his deal. Well, that's his deal. But like I said, you don't want Nestor Cortez three times against Otani. I, even if you say that's your deal, you're happy if you get it twice. And you know, the other guy that you're going to use, um, against him is Tim Hill
Starting point is 00:26:56 and Tim Hill, I'm not putting anywhere near my top guys, but situationally, he's a top guy. And I think Canley has to be in the Otani mix because of the change up. I agree. And also Mookie's right behind him. So he could, those, both those guys are good for Connelly. The one nice thing about the Yankees is they have Carlos Rodin. They have a lefty starter because that one day I think Carlos Rodin can take
Starting point is 00:27:21 an Otani out away from the bullpen. He can go three times against Otani, I think, because we're done is so good. And he's the lefty. I think he can take one of those 10 from the bullpen. You still got nine you got to get, which means and you only have Tim Hill, Nestor Cortez and Tommy Canley. And so, you know, if you're really going to get to 10 times getting show your Tony out and wins, each of those guys
Starting point is 00:27:47 is going to see it a third time. And I think, you know, a lot of people will be on the edge of their seats when those things happen. Yeah, I had the Rodin versus Ohtani as one of my really important matchups because of the lack of a power lefty in the Yankees bullpen. You can only if they have Tim Maza on the roster too, we'll see if he's even there, Hill and Maza,
Starting point is 00:28:09 you don't want Otani to get multiple looks at those guys. Otani's not bad against lefties. And if you're not throwing hard, especially, he sees it one time, sees it the second time, it's gonna be completely different, right? You just, those guys don't work. Yeah, I don't think Maza would face him even if he is on the roster.
Starting point is 00:28:23 He's there if there's a blowout either way. He just, you know, so he's not really be kind of like Alex. Alex Young was for the for the. Yeah, but I think they might throw Hill and wins. I think they throw Hill and wins. They're funky enough with a lighter earned it. Yeah, I think lighter is weird because he's had a reverse split for his career. So you have this righty that does well against lefties, that split finger.
Starting point is 00:28:46 That's probably your other guy that you're using at some point in an important spot against Otani and hoping it works out. I don't know how many times you get away with it, but you have to get away with it at least once. If you, let's say it's sub three times scene, who, what's the order that you're using, you know, your guys against what Tony.
Starting point is 00:29:05 Let's say you OK, is it is it can be first? So if it's can be first, you use them twice. Who do you use next to instead of can be the third time? Hill probably Hill maybe once. Like if you can sandwich to like if it's like you go Hill and then someone else and then Hill again, if you can get away with it, like I'm talking like the next day. So Hill lighter is it right after I'm talking like the next day. So Hill lighter? Is it lighter after Hill?
Starting point is 00:29:27 Well not the next day, like two games later. Maybe light, so that's the thing. Or Cortez. Cortez, the thing it's interesting is like how is Cortez, how do you wanna use Cortez and how do you wanna use Stroman if they're on the run? Like we gotta figure out who's where. One of them has to be the bulk inning guy.
Starting point is 00:29:42 Like yeah. Especially in the fourth game. Yeah, Stroman will be. He's not gonna come and face anyone on purpose. He's gonna try, they're gonna be like, we need three innings, please go throw three innings. And he'll, I mean, he's the type of guy who's like, I'll give you three, I'll give you four.
Starting point is 00:29:52 Like that's, so, but Cortez maybe, then again, elbow inflammation, do we wanna throw him four times? Like can he be effective four times? Or can he get a lot better? And he's a lefty that could figure in on our Otani plan. Yeah, maybe we start him against Otani, try to bring him in against Otani, like the fourth of the starter and the game's tied and then try to get him around to face him again.
Starting point is 00:30:13 I could see that happening. Or does Aaron Boone just go, play Holmes is our guy, man. He's got to go get him out. He's got to. He has to because he's one of our best three relievers. But the interesting thing to me, and we just mentioned it, and I know we're going to talk a little bit more about our straight up matchup, but Leiter is a very interesting thing, especially with how the last couple of
Starting point is 00:30:32 games against Guardians went and how how he did his job and did it well after being called on after not being on the roster and being called on to do it. He's going to be really important for me. It's going to be a lot of because the starters just do not go deep into games. Even the Yankees have been the best at it so far and traditionally though they still aren't getting as many innings as they should from their starters. They just so like that that fifth six inning like turnover is gonna be just it's gonna be the the inflection point for every game like it was in the Mets series. In the sixth inning is when
Starting point is 00:31:03 the game either got out of hand or like it needed to be stopped in the Mets never did it. They kept like getting too much distance and were not able to come back at the end of the game. I think that that was happening kind of in the guardians all Stanton hit every Homer in the sixth inning. So it's like that is going to be the most important inning in the games. Fifth and sixth inning are going to be the ones I'm paying attention to the most.
Starting point is 00:31:24 And you don't want to go to your three there so who gets it and who has those like four or five six guys that do a better job that's gonna be the I think what story of the game at least what I'm gonna pay to it I mean they're gonna be like oh Donnie and judge that's what the media is gonna talk about but I'm gonna pay attention to how well are those the set how well is the second line doing in their bridge duties? Because I feel like outside of Copac, there's no real like fireman guy. There's no Kate Smith.
Starting point is 00:31:51 They can throw in the third and throw in the eighth. Like no one's going to be doing that for these two teams. Right. It's like more of a depth the bullpen than it is like really excellent. That's what they're still using their four through six guys in those bridge spots, they're not using their four through six guys in those bridge spots. They're not using their, their setup guy. And if they're trying to get 60% outs again from their bullpen, like that's, yes, it's
Starting point is 00:32:11 going to be the fourth. It's even going to be the fourth, the fourth, fifth and sixth, where it's going to be like what are you guys doing? Cause you, especially if you want to like alternate looks, you can't, can't just be like, well, this is our plan. It's always in the fourth, we go to this guy in the fifth, we go to this guy. And the six to go to this guy. No, then, then by the third time they see that the Yankees be like, Oh yeah,
Starting point is 00:32:29 we saw these guys in this order before we're, we're cool. That's why I think you want to take those, this third, fourth, fifth relievers and give them one shot each at the highest leverage spot and just say, okay, you got to do it once. And then you're not going to see them again until maybe the very end of the series and even that's going to be them again until maybe the very end of the series. And even that's going to be as situationally optimized as it can possibly be in that situation.
Starting point is 00:32:51 That's what I think they are trying to put together. I wonder if Jake Cousins has a couple of important innings in this World Series. He's kind of filthy. He's been hurt a lot, but as far as swing and miss stuff goes, he's got that. I mean, 34.2% K rate in the regular season has the walk issues that I think leave him vulnerable in this sort of matchup. But I think Jake Cousins for me is definitely inside that circle of trust
Starting point is 00:33:24 of guys that I'm okay throwing out there against some of the Dodgers top hitters. If I have to agree. I think he's a way to, to alternate looks on, on righties in particular. He's, you know, if you're doing the old Tampa Bay rays clock face, you know, he's, he's different than almost anybody else on this roster. He's kind of a side army rightyy, sinker slider guy, you know? And, uh, you know, he even has a, uh, I've heard he has a fork ball that he,
Starting point is 00:33:53 that he never uses. I doubt that's going to be, we're going to see it the first time in the world series, but that would be pretty awesome. If you do say one, please, please circle it and highlight it for me because I'm waiting for him to throw it, but yeah, even with just the sinker slider, I think he's going to be a good weapon against against righties. I put, I don't know if I put them in the top 10, the back end of the top 10 is, is difficult. You've you got lighter. You've got Jake Cousins.
Starting point is 00:34:21 I don't know. I don't know exactly who I fit in there. Lighter has been pitching better in the postseason than they did in the regular season in terms of stuff. What worse in terms of locations and so I don't know if I trust a guy that is so split finger heavy to not walk a bunch of guys if he walks you know to yankees that's instant trouble. You know, so I think, you know, I think I might sneak Jay Cousins into my, despite inferior stuff plus to Mark Leiter, I think I might sneak Jay Cousins in the back end of my 10. Yeah, I think he belongs in that group. Nestor is the toughest one to fit in because we don't know for sure if he's on the roster
Starting point is 00:35:02 and then we don't even know on the side if he's stretched out enough to go multiple innings or if he's one inning at a time and we're going to see him in two or three different games like that's a great unknown. I think our first assumption was maybe heal and Nestor Cortez tandem in the middle of the series to try and get five, six innings and then turn it over to the A bullpen if everything goes well. It's a little less than that if it doesn't. But if you told me, you know, Nester Cortez
Starting point is 00:35:27 is healthy enough to give you as many as six outs on two occasions, then he's probably like a sixth or seventh best reliever overall in the series because of the importance of having a lefty on lefty matchup and someone better than the likes of Hill. It's just interesting. He also was, he could come off injury, not having thrown in games, like, Tenga, you know what I mean?
Starting point is 00:35:48 Yeah, we just saw a second do okay, and then we just knew he wasn't the same. So it's just like, it's just a crap shoot based on how good someone feels. We just don't know, like, if they're just like the adrenaline of the situation, they're like, I'm ready to go because it's the World Series and I want to pitch in the World Series,
Starting point is 00:36:03 or if they're truly... Oh, yeah, you can't even know if you're the World Series and I want to pitch in the World Series or if they're truly. Oh yeah. You can't even know if you're the Yankees and you haven't throw a bullpen because you're like seeing the bullpen, you're like, ah, it was 90. I don't know. It looked okay. Yeah. Maybe that's 90 and okay in the bullpen, but 93 on the mound of the World Series and just fine. Or it's, nope, it's still 90.
Starting point is 00:36:26 I think he's going to be the first time he goes out there. There's just so many question marks. I really do think it's going to be a, not the bleeding, give us a couple innings. He our long guy at first. And, but then they, maybe they, that happens in the game one game. I, we hope not for, for Garrett Cole and for Rodone. But if he has to, I'll know at that point whether or not what, but they just won't know until he's in a game.
Starting point is 00:36:48 So it's just, that's a hard, it's just such a wild card that I can't put him in here. Yeah, it seems like a lot to start talking to him. Like you're getting, you're our Otani guy. Go get Otani out. He's like, okay, I'll keep being me. Like in game one of the World Series off of injury, like here you go, Cole has kept them, you know,
Starting point is 00:37:04 kept them to one run in five and you know, we need you against Otani. It's like, okay, it's a one run game. So given that he's coming off an injury, you'd both choose Tim Hill over Cortez in that situation early in the series until we know what Nester has. Yes. And he did it. It's funky enough to like last series too.
Starting point is 00:37:22 Tim Hill did. How many times has Otani seen a Tim Hill type? He's funky, man. There's no one like him. No one else throws the ball. Is there another lefty that is under a sidearm? I don't think there is. I don't think there another one exists.
Starting point is 00:37:37 Like truly lower than 90 degrees. I don't know if there is one. He used to be like strong height, like a little bit higher than the sidearm and now he's just completely, I'm just gonna be a Submariner and throw fastballs. So yeah, it's one of those things like, he's so funky that who knows how Tawny's gonna,
Starting point is 00:38:01 how that's gonna look to him. As we know, Manaya gave him struggles, at least in the first outing, like the guy stepping at him, no matter how good you are, guy stepping at you and then throwing across his body into the other side of the plate. It's just, there's something about it that's hard to be on top of.
Starting point is 00:38:17 But then again, the guy's a freak, so who knows. Oh, oh, hey, I got an answer for him real quick, sorry. All right. Lowest lefty release points this year in baseball. Tim Hill, three feet off the ground. Second, whole be, whole be Milner. Four point three feet off the ground. Yeah. So he's the only one he's he's a unicorn. And in terms of like how many times is what Tony's seeing?
Starting point is 00:38:46 Anybody like these guys? Three is Joe Jacques. Four is Rich Hill. Five is JP Sears. Six is Sammy Peralta. I'm now going to put Otani as the batter. And I bet you he hasn't seen any of these guys. The I don't know, but I can speak to you how uncomfortable as a fan you are when
Starting point is 00:39:05 a Hobie Milner comes into the game just because it's, it's funky, but it looks so hit a bull. The lowest release point that, uh, that, that show your tiny has seen this year from a lefty is Tom Cosgrove with a 4.78. So Tim Hill's going to come in a foot and a half lower than the lowest release points. So I, I would at least do it once. I think I would do it twice depending. I might even, I'm not like a results based guy, but if the first two went like,
Starting point is 00:39:35 you know, Tonya just didn't look like he could see it well, then I might risk a third, but that's it. I mean, there's going to be a point where it's going to be like, we just have to do this. Yeah, I know. I know the numbers dude, but what else am I supposed to do here? He's funky, he's weird, he's done it the first two times, and we have to go off that. I'm not throwing Stroman against Nohtani. It's like when you walk Soto to get to judge with the bases loaded.
Starting point is 00:39:58 We know what usually happens, but it hasn't happened lately, we got to go off this. We have to. There's nothing else to do here. Yeah, sometimes you get to those points where it's a coin flip decision. So you don't have an easy path or you just are out of options because you've already used someone else or.
Starting point is 00:40:13 Everyone's heard. Everyone's heard. Everyone's fresh. No one's fresh. Everyone pitched yesterday. Sorry, Tim, here it goes again. All right, so Trevor, your top five was Trinen Weaver, Kopek, Phillips, Keenly, right?
Starting point is 00:40:26 So who do you have at the bottom half of your list? Well, how do you round it out? I would throw I would throw Clay Holmes at six. And then I will go to just because the only reason that Daniel Hudson seven here for me is just because he hasn't been used that much. And I like to think that the Dodgers have some thinking behind that because he has been really good I mean I know he's a little older maybe his stuff's a little bit whatever but he could be the wild card he could be a guy they lean on he
Starting point is 00:40:52 throws really well and they just keep going to him and then Mark Leiter probably goes in there Tim Hill probably goes in there and then I think another guy in that realm of like you know know, Yamamoto's run four strong innings, but now we're getting around the thing and we need a fifth inning guy. I'll throw Anthony Banda in at 10, just because he's the lefty and he's, I played with Anthony in 2021. All this is just a little personal anecdote to see the things that he is, the way he has changed and the way he's just bought into like, he used to have ride.
Starting point is 00:41:23 He used to sit there and just, I think it actually was 20 it was a 2021 yes it was so he talked to Seth Lugo and I constantly about ride and about like how do you spin your curveball so much he was super curious and he's trying to get a riding fastball it looks like he's really bought in he always had good electric stuff so to see him being successful like he is and just like buying in and doing what he's buying into the thing and being good at it that's good but I think that he that he's a wild card for, we need a lefty to come in and get out,
Starting point is 00:41:48 Soto, jam him, get a double play, maybe even Rizzo, I mean Rizzo had six hits in last series, like we don't want, we need a guy to come in, who knows, so I think, you know, your lefty is always gonna be important, so that's why I throw him a 10. All right, you know, you went Weaver, Kopek,
Starting point is 00:42:05 Tranon, Phillips, Hudson, and then we got down to six at Holmes. How do you round your list out? I'm going to go Cainley. Brazier. Brazier, nice. I think he's going to be really important to diversify the looks against the righties.
Starting point is 00:42:24 You know, he's he he's underrated and he got he was the only pitcher that saw a Met three times. In the Mets Dodger series, the only. Dodger reliever that saw Met three times other than their mop up guys was Ryan Brazier. He saw Pete lanzo three times and he got him out all three times. So i have you know peter lanzo and aaron judge. Then i'm not saying the same guy but they're both highball hitters.
Starting point is 00:42:59 You know the bit you know a little bit more weakness download you know there's some similarities there that I'd be like brazier is a guy who's gonna hopefully get judge out for me twice So that alone puts him in my top ten because I need to I need to figure out all my judge outs in there I'm gonna put hill as the best of the lefties And that makes me at eight That makes me at eight. That gives you nine. Nine. That's nine already. And I already said I'm sneaking cousins in at 10. The only guy that I want to get on this list that I don't right now is
Starting point is 00:43:36 is Nestor when I know. You know what his role is, what he is. I would have Nestor. you know, what his role is, what he is. I would have Nestor in this, and I might have him as high as Daniel Hudson if he was throwing well. And especially out of the pen, could he throw 93? You know, out of the pen? Definitely possible.
Starting point is 00:44:02 There's a natural segue here of the critical matchups that could swing this series. And I just look at, you know, I mentioned the Rodin versus Otani and the importance of him getting through the lineup, or at least through Otani a third time in those starts. That's gonna be really important. I could see Ko-Pek against Judge being a matchup
Starting point is 00:44:22 at some point where the command is wobbly, Soto either works a walk or gets on against him, there's traffic, and you get the right on right matchup with Kopek against Judge and we'll have to see if he can actually execute. That's going to be a spot where I'm like, all right, which Michael Kopek shows up? Because if he's in and around the zone the way he can be great. No problem He's gonna cruise if he's throwing non competitive pitches Then it's a spot where a beginning happens and it's a spot where the Dodgers needed Kopek to work through a jam, right? So I'm looking at that as one of the really important matchups
Starting point is 00:45:00 That's also fascinating because that's strength on strength Judge is a high ball hitter. You know, Kopec is a high fastball guy. Is Kopec going to try and throw like four straight cutters at the knees to, uh, to Aaron Judge? If so, and he executes them, then he might get the out. But I don't think the cutter is necessarily Copac's best pitch. And what he wants to do is get a strike or two with the cutter and finish you with the four seam. And you could get to two strikes on judge and try to finish him with the four seam. And that's when he gives it the Homer.
Starting point is 00:45:38 So, you know, judge eliminates Copac's best strength in certain in a certain way, or at least matches it. So that's strength on strength in a way that, you know, Kopeck may just say, screw it, I can throw it by this guy. And then Judge says, no, you can't. And that's one of those matchups too, batter versus pitcher stats.
Starting point is 00:45:58 They're not predictive, they're always tiny samples. I don't know how much they actually mean. Curious to get Trevor's thoughts on those a little bit, but Kopeck has held Judge to an 0 for 6 with 2Ks so far in their previous meetings. And it's not like the Michael Walker thing where it's a long sample and it's right on right changeups that have worked really well.
Starting point is 00:46:16 It's typical like reliever versus slugger. It could turn on one bad pitch, right? It's that kind of split. So I wouldn't put any stock into the success he's had so far, but I'm 99% sure they will mention that on the broadcast the first time Kopec faces judge in the series. I mean, you know, Mookie Betts was one for six against me with two or three strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:46:39 And am I confident? Absolutely not. I feel like I got lucky every single time. He is a single. That's all he has. And he would be like, no man, you something about you. And I'd be like, no, no, you're lying. He's just trying to get me to.
Starting point is 00:46:51 If we had a seven, you would hit Homer. Yeah. And the thing about that is Copic's like, you know, he's a, the guys he dominates, they're swinging missing 60% of the time. You get two strikeouts out of six at bats. That's not, that's not him dominating. And I would like to see the four non strikeouts and what those look like probably some flyouts right so and again like you
Starting point is 00:47:12 said it's it's power on power but it's like his best like the way you copac gets that look in his eye like here's 101 and I'm only gonna throw this and that isn't if there's any guy outside of Aaron Judge or not Aaron Judge outside of Juan Soto who that doesn't work on it's Aaron Judge he's just like you can't you're not gonna be able to out power me so that is an interesting one for me too yeah and and you mentioned that the the the interesting thing too now that we see the Dodgers in the World Series again is how the big bugaboo with them lately, or the last whatever since they haven't
Starting point is 00:47:50 been getting as far into the playoffs, is how often they make decisions based on sample size stuff from the regular season and they try to put themselves in the best position and sometimes they make decisions that remove someone's ability to just step up. I saw there's a moment that the Padres did it, I think it was game two, when Morihan walked a guy 2-2. And then they intentionally walked Betts because they're like, you can't get him out. It's the fourth inning or whatever and it was 5-4 after a wild pitch. Then they ended up losing.
Starting point is 00:48:22 And I was like, see, that's the type of thing you're like, Hey, Adrian, I don't believe that you can get him out even though you're up, it's a two, two count. I don't, and, and that is over managing in my opinion, just because yeah, the numbers might say it's right, but that it's not, that's not how we operate here. You gotta, Adrian needs to get him out. He, it doesn't matter if it's not a good matchup. He still has to get him out. It might be better to send the pitching coach and say, let's, you know, don't give him anything in the middle.
Starting point is 00:48:47 You can walk him, but you know, let's, if you can get him out, great. But what you're guaranteeing is you're bringing up another, even though he's banged up another MVP to hit after him. And it's a lefty that doesn't have lefty splits. And Morahan didn't have the lefty, didn't have a huge platoon split either. So it was just like, the numbers actually don't even back this up much. It's just, you're, it's like an emotional. So it's interesting cause the Dodgers have done this in the past. So, um,
Starting point is 00:49:12 but I want to see some guys do something they're not on paper have done before or supposed to be doing that. You know who I'm circling for that is Ben Casperius, you know, because he's wild and has great stuff, he's righty and he's going to be put in to a losing game and he could step up and keep them close while the Dodgers offense tries to cook. And so, you know, I think that there could be a game where get Ben Casperius comes in, gets them six outs and keeps them, you know, scoreless.
Starting point is 00:49:47 And all of a sudden, you know, it's a tie game again. And the A bullpen comes back out. So that would be, that would require some of what you're saying. It's sort of like, Hey, you're a guy now. I know we're, we're down by one or two. Like this isn't, we're not, we're not waving the white towel. We're saying you, we can't use our a a but you are the guy that we you need to step up now and get these outs And I think Casperius could do it
Starting point is 00:50:13 I kind of excited about him and especially in this role when he is a starter He gets a little bit more exposed by his lack of command But as a reliever, he can simplify his arsenal and kind of really hone in. So he could be an X factor for them. Let's say you're trying to keep it close and on the Dodger side, Kasperius going against the Yankees.
Starting point is 00:50:34 That's the three innings, just keep your team in it. And on the other side, it's Stroman against the Dodger's lineup. Who are you more comfortable with in that role, trying to get through the opposing lineup once while keeping it close. I kind of like Kasperius because one of the things that we've been learning about is the familiarity, the role of familiarity with shapes and familiarity with relievers.
Starting point is 00:50:55 Third time you see reliever in a series, third time through the order. These are familiarity things. I think every team like the Yankees or Dodgers should have like a Ben Kasparis that they keep in the minors all year and they bring up for the playoffs because nobody has a mental book on Kasparis. Who wants to be that guy? Let's see some hands. We really like you, but we really want to bring you up in like on September 30th. Is that cool? you, but we really want to bring you up in like on September 30th. Is that cool?
Starting point is 00:51:28 We really value you, but really wants you to be that, that wildcard. Think we think of you as Francisco Rodriguez, look him up 2002. That's you're our guy. But you know, everybody has a mental book on Marcus Stroman, dude. Yeah. I mean, everybody on the Dodgers is, I'm sure has seen Marcus Stroman at least eight, 10 times. And command is this thing. We don't know where his command's gonna be either.
Starting point is 00:51:51 We don't know how fresh he's gonna be. So he needs command, like you said, because various can get by with stuff. And I would lean towards that guy more than I would the command guy that hasn't pitched in a while. You know, the only Dodger who's just torched Marcus Stroman is Kevin Keirmeyer. He's seen a lot of Mookie Betts.
Starting point is 00:52:10 A lot of first pitches, huh? Out of his shoes on a sinker. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So a lot of Mookie Betts, uh, Marcus Stroman matchups that have gone Stroman's way. Wow. Okay.
Starting point is 00:52:20 Freddie Freeman is one for 18 against Marcus Stroman. I was at least right that they have a huge mental Rolodex. I'm surprised that Stroman got the better of them, but you know, some of this might have also been earlier career Stroman. So there's a difference. That's why this is all ridiculous. Like 10 year big leaguer has seen guys over various points of his career, various points of their careers.
Starting point is 00:52:42 Everyone's changed a bunch of times over the span of that matchup. That's why the matchups are so meaningless for me. Any other critical matchups you've got circled, Trevor, do you got any other spots that you're looking at saying, okay, this could be huge if it goes one way or the other. I will say this, I'm banking on this happening at least one time.
Starting point is 00:53:05 And I think that Clay Holmes is gonna have to get through that's Freeman and then Te'Oscar. It'll be really interesting. Multiple times. Yeah, like so the first time that happens, cause I'm anticipating this being like a sixth inning, three two, four two game. And I really wanna see Mookie versus Clay.
Starting point is 00:53:27 I want to see how Mookie handles or how comfortable he looks just because he's so quick at dropping his head on that down and in sinker. And he's so good at hitting sliders, no matter how funky you are. So it's... What's left for Clay Holmes if there's those... And I've seen Clay as of late, especially when his commands not great and his sinkers a little up and he's just like, I have to throw sliders and like, he looks like he's trapped.
Starting point is 00:53:53 He's like, Oh God, I have one. I have one thing right now. And this guy and Mookie's like the best, he's the best slider, right? I'm right. Slider hitter. I've, I think we talked about this very early in the season, but just like in terms of not chasing and then when it is in the zone, just smashing it. Um, uh, you know, he's got what?
Starting point is 00:54:10 Four home runs. And he can pull them even though the movement's going away from him, right? Oh yeah. He goes down and gets it. And it's like, but if it's one inch off the plate, he takes it. You're like, I have no confidence in this pitch and he doesn't have a lot of, it's, it's got more depth than a lot. And that's, he goes down and gets stuff down and both of his pitches go down.
Starting point is 00:54:26 So, um, obviously he's throws really hard and has a hard slider. So like, you know, that's going to factor in, but I think there's going to be a bridge moment where it's going to be very important for him to get Mookie bets out. Um, so I'm in, uh, and I might happen twice. And I think that's going to be a possible turning points one way or the other. How would you call it desperation or Wiley smart? Well, one thing we found out from Cleveland
Starting point is 00:54:56 was they were top two in the league in high sliders, high change ups, right on right change ups, you know, like they were, they, they are top three and weird. They love the, it was the Brent Rooker. I don't know if you saw Brent Rooker retweet of, of the Eli Morgan high change up that came back in and he was like, your brain cannot make you swing at this. So would it be weird or desperate if you see Clay Holmes throwing front door high sliders to Mookie Betts?
Starting point is 00:55:32 It would be weird. My assumption, just because of how hard that is to do, and I'm probably speaking for my own, this is my own bias, but like, it's so hard to do that on purpose because the there's two, the two misses are you hit them or it's right down the middle and you're used to burying stuff trying to be nasty for swings and misses and when that's your natural inclination pull anything if you're trying not to give up damage. What about a high and away slider? Maybe the high and the way slider where you're trying to get them to like try to go out and just poke it. Like that could be like, not even like a cutter cause he doesn't have them, but he throws it,
Starting point is 00:56:06 you can throw 87, 88, you can get it like hard. He throws a hard slider that supposedly you have more command of. It's not, you're not trying to throw a high and away sweeper or something. He's trying to throw a high and away hard sliders, maybe possible. I could see that, but again, then again,
Starting point is 00:56:19 you're like, it's an elevated slider. Like, do I really want to do that? You know that the commentator, the funniest thing is I, I, I sent the thing out about Tanner by B's, uh, home run to giant collar Stanton and it was like, well, he hung a slider. I'm like, well, he missed his location by, you know, 10 inches. Um, but the movement was, this was actually better than his average slider. So is that a hanging slider?
Starting point is 00:56:41 It's just, you know, you did that on purpose. Everyone said you hung a slider to Mookie bets, you know, if you did that on purpose, everyone said you hung a slider to Mookie Betts, you know, it's like, no, actually the game plan was to throw a high slider. It's just Mookie's Mookie, you know. Mookie's Mookie. At the end of the day, Clay throws his slider on his sinker. So the movement is away from the middle of the zone. That is why he has those two pitches. And those two versions of his pitches are the ones that Mookie Betts hammers. So it's like, so
Starting point is 00:57:09 does he change, does he take a shot like to try to finesse one? That's what I'm saying, is it desperate or smart if he does something totally different? He might. He would have to be desperate I think, especially with, you know, it's not like Clay's like, you know, pinpoint command. He's got good command but it's not like, you only throw that hard and it moves that much. You're Zach Britton. You're not painting constantly. And so maybe he tries it because it's the World Series and scared money don't make money,
Starting point is 00:57:35 but I just don't think it's a great matchup even though it's right on right. And it's gonna be interesting to see if Aaron Boone goes out there with like a, yeah, because we got Clay Holmes and he throws a sinker and he throws a slider and it's a right on right matchup and if he knows whether or not Mookie's like mmm like that's my I'm different that's the stuff I love I would rather a lefty come in throwing
Starting point is 00:57:56 weird stuff and my guess is if he can he just tries to throw the more most extreme versions of those two that are basically out of the zone and he basically walks Mookie. What did Otani just do? Why is Clay in the game right now and is in the middle of anything, is Otani on base? That'll change things too, right? And then if you're worried about Otani over there first, good luck, man.
Starting point is 00:58:17 I'm glad that I'm not you. He might be running too, right? Yeah. Then you have him on second, you're like, now I really can't let Mookie hit anything. Cause he, and, and so then you're stuck and both sides are going to deal with this stuff. We're like, okay, it's Soto on now I got to face judge.
Starting point is 00:58:34 They're going to both have to do this. This is going to be a bunch of relievers holding their breath all game waiting to go in the game. So I, I think the off, I think there'll be a lot of offense in this series, right? I think there'll be a lot of offense. We've, right? I think there'll be a lot of offense. We've been talking about pitching the whole time,
Starting point is 00:58:46 but I kind of feel like the average game is going to be like six, five or something. Didn't the Dodgers just score 10 runs in every single one of their wins this ever they ate nothing. So it was like, yeah, I mean, I think the Yankees staff is a little better than the Mets staff, but that's still great. Both teams are packed full of competent hitters that can do a lot of damage too. So it's going to be a grind. That's why we were focusing so much on the matchups and the bullpens
Starting point is 00:59:11 throughout today's show. We're going to go on our way out the door. Just a reminder, get a subscription to Athletic for $2 a month at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. You can join our discord with the link in the show description. You can find us on Twitter. Trevor is at I am Trevor May. Eno is at EnoSaris.
Starting point is 00:59:25 I am at Derek VanRiper. The pod is at Rates and Barrels. That is gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening. Bye!

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