Rates & Barrels - World Series Reliever Rankings & Critical Matchups
Episode Date: October 23, 2024Eno, DVR, Trevor discuss the passing of Fernando Valenzuela, whose dominant 1981 season led to Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award honors in the same campaign and spurred 'Fernandomania' in Los Ange...les. Plus, they dig into reliever rankings for the World Series and critical matchups that each team will be focused on during the Fall Classic. Rundown 0:59 Fernando Valenzuela Passes Away at Age 63 5:21 Reliever Rankings for the World Series: Who Is No. 1? 15:59 Evan Phillips' Difficult Matchup with the Yankees' Bats 20:12 Tommy Kahnle's Extremely Heavy Changeup Usage 28:08 The Yankees' Lack of Power Lefties in the Bullpen 37:27 Uncertainty Around Nestor Cortes Jr.'s Availability & Role 44:22 Critical Matchups That Could Swing the Series Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Trevor on Twitter: @IamTrevorMay e-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.com Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris With: Trevor May Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Wednesday, October 23rd.
Derek VanRyper, Unicaris, Trevor May here with you.
Welcome back, Trevor.
How are you doing?
I am good, rested and ready to go.
Relatively rested.
Well, congratulations on the new addition to your family.
We're glad to have you back on this episode.
We're going to rank the relievers on the World Series
rosters.
Yesterday, we went through the process of ranking the pitchers
we expect to see as starters.
We're going to dig into a few critical matchups that
could swing the series as well, which
kind of ties into how we would rank these relievers.
There might be a couple of vulnerabilities that each of these lineups can exploit if
the right situations arise.
So a lot of tactical talk, a lot of reliever talk on this pod.
Some sad news though, as we get started today, we learned on Tuesday of the passing of Fernando
Valenzuela, he passed away at the age of 63.
A Dodgers legend who brought Fernando mania in 1981,
won the rookie of the year and Cy Young award that same season, six time all star.
And a guy that was a huge influence on the Latino community in L.A.
brought a ton of fans to the ballpark.
I think that was a huge part of it.
Also put his home country really on the map
as a place where big league players were going to come from
going forward too.
So massive impact, big loss
in not only just the Dodgers community,
but in the baseball community as well.
A lot of folks don't know
Fernando Villanueva also was part of that broadcast crew
since 2003 with legendary announcer Jaime Harin too.
So a huge part of the Dodgers organization. I feel like
jealous that I missed out on
Fernando mania because it sounds like
something that would happen today and get kind of like overused in social media and SEO
Optimization but was actually just a larger-than-life sort of phenomenon when it happened back in the 80s.
I agree. I love that stuff. I mean, that's what would have made those types of things. These
bigger than life characters in the game was what made me love it so much. I also attribute that to
why I love movies so much. I'm a big hero's journey underdog, you know, grind your way to the top.
It cream always rises top type of guy.
And, um, like I would have just ate that up.
He probably would have been my, I would, it would have been, I would have loved him.
Um, and every single time something like that happens, uh, I get excited, but like
you said, it does get a little like, is this a real thing or are we forcing this
to be a thing now?
And it's, that's not as fun anymore.
And also I'm going to, I'm a grown up and things get a little bit less magical.
But, uh, I just, yeah, it's something that, you know, it would be nice to have,
not have social media and relive that kind of a word of mouth, you know,
legendary status that happened. Um, that would, that's really cool.
I also just love that it's not came out of nowhere, but you know, it's like this, like we have this such this pipeline of baseball America, top 100 lists and all this like sort of fascination with prospects.
So I bet you to some Dodgers fans and to some people this was like who's this kid you know and then to win the side young and the rookie the year in the same year no one's ever done that and for him to do that side young to me a lot of times is like the oscars were like you have to actually have your oscar winning performance.
before you win the Siong. You know, like you kind of have to get into the group that people consider possible Siong. No, he was just like, nah, I'm here.
I give it to me. And, uh, you know, some of the things that kind of,
you might look at his strikeout rate that year and be like, oh, eight K nine,
you know, you know, in our years that's, but that was 1981.
So if you actually look at the plus stats, which are like, um, the, you know,
what was his strikeout rate relative to the league?
It's a top 40. That's a top 40 strikeout rate relative to his league
in the history of baseball.
And it comes in his rookie season.
And it's, you know, the people ahead of him are all Randy Johnson,
Nolan Ryan, Pedro Martinez.
Pedro Martinez, 2002 is the one
that's tied with him.
Um, and it's, it's a ton of Nolan Ryan and, uh, Roger Clements and Randy Johnson.
So, um, you know, it may not look like a Nolan Ryan strikeout rate.
It may not look like a Pedro Martinez strikeout rate, uh, but it was, and it
was such a glorious time.
There was, you know, like a two month streak where you gave up like three runs.
You know, it's like, can you imagine just, it's like, it's like skeins, but, but
there's an element of like, who is this guy?
As opposed to the skeins were all like, saw it coming.
Like where skeins, why isn't skeins up yet?
You know, where skeins, why isn't skeins better?
How did this happen?
Why did skeins give up a run yesterday?
Like the expectations are completely different in today's day and age,
of course, with all the information we have at our disposal.
Dodgers are going to honor Valenzuela prior to the start of game one
at Dodger Stadium on Friday.
So let's start with the reliever rankings today.
Let's dig into these because there's,
I think a lot of weight being placed on both bullpens.
The Dodgers more so than the Yankees
because they've been bullpenning at times
just to get up to this point.
60% of their outs have been from the bullpen.
It's much more than anyone would have anticipated
back when the season began.
They've done this at times in the past
and had success doing it.
But we've wondered with every team that does this,
are there diminishing returns as each round gets more difficult,
as each matchup you face has more quality bats in the lineup against you?
Is there going to be decay? Is there going to be fatigue?
I think all those questions are real.
And the way I wanted to frame this question was,
how would you rank these relievers just based on everything
we have to account for right now?
Recent workloads, maybe injuries guys could be coming back from
for some guys that may end up on the roster.
If we get to a point where the series is on the line
for either one of these teams and you need someone to come in
and just get the last three outs,
and let's assume it's the top of the opposing lineup
that you're going against.
So no, no easy path out of all the relievers in this series, Trevor, who do you want taking
the ball to finish out a game in this series? I will go
at this moment. Probably Blake Trinen, just because of the way that the lineups are
set up and the type of repertoire he has versus the other way around.
Um, I think just how it matches up.
It's really close between Trinen and Weaver at the moment for me, just
because, uh, of the way he uses his
change up and how that's the best against Otani and Betts.
But, um, trying has been really, really good.
And he's just like, he's like a magician watching this ball
fly out of his hand is crazy.
And then he's had, he's had the experience, he has the experience over Weaver.
So, uh, I'll just give him a slight edge and he's thrown really well lately.
So, um, and he's throwing lots of strikes.
So Phillips is walking a little bit too many guys in my opinion.
So yeah, I'll go with.
I'll go with Blake Triton.
Yeah, I think one of the keys for the top end relievers in the series
is going to be getting lefties and righties out naturally.
It always is.
And part of that's because you're not getting that much of an advantage
relative to other lineups, because the're not getting that much of an advantage relative
to other lineups because the elite hitters in both of these lineups handle lefties and righties
really well. So you have to be good as a reliever against hitters on both sides because you're
facing some of the absolute best hitters on the planet. You know, are you taking Trinen in that
same situation that I described for Trevor? One thing that makes me a little bit nervous is that
he throws a sinker.
And so I'm kind of looking for the best four seamer because I do think that fastball
will play better against both hands, just like you're talking about.
So for me, I think the decision between the best two is actually between Kopec and Weaver.
Those are the two best four seamers in this postseason and they're nasty.
They're at their froggiest.
They're looking pretty good.
Weaver's, you know, a little bit more overused or over.
I don't know what the word is.
Just been used more has been used for more outs, you know, has, um, has pitched more.
Maybe running up against, you know, that first time as a reliever, you're
like, wow, this is different than starting, you know, like this is his first.
Full year as a reliever, you know, with that schedule, maybe he's, maybe there's
a little bit of like, you know, there was, you know, the end of that guardian
series, there was a little bit of like, oh, he seems a little bit more
hittable than he has, you know, for most of the season.
But I'm going to give it to Weaver over Kopec because Kopec is still pretty wild.
And we saw that with his opening sequence in that final game that you can wait them out a little bit.
You can you can go to the you know, and Adam Audivino has talked to me about this where it's like, you know, there's a difference between, you know, he had,
Adam said his worst season was the season in which batters came to the plate
and said, I don't need to be aggressive. I need to wait.
He needs to throw me a strike before, before I sort of wake up. Like he,
I'm going to wait till he makes me swing as opposed to the
best years of Ottavino's careers. when people came to the plate and said I need to be aggressive and get to
The fastball before I get that breaking ball. So that whole idea of swinging I think with Kopec maybe you know
These pretty patient Yankee hitters can wait him out. I could in particular see Kopec versus Soto
Being an interesting matchup where Soto's like, nope, nope, nope.
Oh, that one was actually, you know, four inches lower than he wanted it.
And I just hit it out, even though it was super nasty.
So I'm going to take Weaver.
I love that change up because he can throw it to both sides.
He's throwing the cutter more and he has the best or second best for scene, uh, in the,
in the group of players that we're looking at.
Yeah. Those were the two I was kind of stuck on.
I think Trinen's effectiveness against lefties was something that put him over
the top for me for the top spot. But I think it's one, two Trinen.
We give it for me. The concerns you outlined about Copac are very real.
And here's the broader question before we kind of get into a few more names.
When you see a chart of the stuff plus numbers for this year's world series
teams, we've got it up on YouTube if you're actually watching,
but their post-season stuff plus only,
it's a snapshot of where they are right now.
I think that's probably the better way to do it at this point. I mean,
you mentioned weaver's workload of guys who've been used as relievers this
post-season. He's worked the most, he's recorded the most outs now.
The Cade Smith was number two.
But both of these lineups, both the Yankees and the Dodgers
are so good at making swing decisions
that I think bad command is more problematic now
than it is at any point in the season,
mostly because of who these teams are.
This happens every year, every way, anyway, but I think it's even more extreme
given this matchup.
Yeah.
I think despite Trinen's relatively lackluster stuff, plus the, you know, the
one-on-one location plus and the overall pitching plus being good, um, I would
have him right, uh, right around, uh, I think I'd have him after Copac, honestly, cause I want that stuff.
I would just want, I would tell him, throw it close to the zone and just try to
blow it by them rather than be super fine.
I don't think that's really going to work.
And so I have trying in fourth.
So it's basically a Weaver third Weaver Copac trying in third. Yeah. But the fourth spot, the fourth spot, Kopec, Trinen third.
Yeah.
But the fourth spot, the fourth spot, see the thing that was interesting here is
that I think the, the, even if I give the Yankees, the number one reliever, you
start to see the Dodgers depth because I'm going to go Kopec, Trinen, probably
Phillips, you know, I'm going to go three Dodgers in a row before I get to a Yankee.
The key with Phillips is both his location plus isn't above average on this one. I think
it's because he has to be fine with the sweeper against lefties. And so he's willing to walk
a lefty because he doesn't want to put that sweeper in the happy zone. And in particular,
I circled this matchup, Evan Phillips against both lefties and righties, just Evan Phillips against the Yankees.
This may not be the Dodgers best look.
I found that the Yankees were top 10 in terms of a whiff rate and having a good whiff rate slugging most of his most outputs for lefties and righties against sweepers.
So, and I, and the search that I did was sweepers with more than 14 inches of sweep.
So this isn't just like blah sweepers or all sweepers.
This is closer to Phillips level sweepers.
The Yankees are pretty good at them.
They see them pretty well.
Soto is going to see that sweeper.
I think you want to keep Phillips away from Soto.
So now we're dwindling the number of pitchers you want Soto to see.
So, you know, who do you pitch against Soto, especially if Alex Vesia is not in
there, if who do you pitch against Soto is going to be a big problem for the,
for, for the Dodgers.
They had Vesia, man, That would be, they just need him.
That's what you want.
So that's a, yeah, that's a big deal.
I agree with that fullheartedly.
I mean, I have Trine and then Weaver.
I would say I would probably go with two more Dodgers
with Kopec and then Phillips.
Kopec just because of pure, you know, pure stuff, you know, his,
the thing that, that, that he does, he has a little bit of a tendency and I went
and looked into this the same, similarly to like a guy like Ryan Stanek who has
also very, very good stuff, is when they, when things aren't fully, like things
have snowballed on them fairly quickly, I think they both haven't really found that like lockdown
for a, you know, 10 straight outings in a row.
They're really good for eight.
And then they have a couple just where they're just
nowhere near.
And in the playoffs,
it's something that gives me a little bit of pause
with Copic, but he does have the best stuff out of anybody
in any of the bullpens.
And so that's just going to make him a weapon.
And then also with Vessia gone,
I think that his four seam against Soto is
Your best option. They're gonna go to that a lot even like Banda who's the lefty he's sinker slider like
That's not gonna be as good against Soto as you think like sinkers are just he loves them
so it's it's I would say I would put Copic and then I throw Phillips just because he's
Gonna be interchangeable.
And if that sweeper is on, maybe not having, but not having, you know, not Soto per se,
but I think Stanton and Judge, if his sweepers on, even if they see it well and are not chasing
it off the plate, if he can get it in the zone and get it off the plate, it's just one of those
pitches that you're just not gonna, no matter how disciplined you are, if he's get it in the zone and get it off the plate it's just one of those pitches that you're just not gonna no matter how disciplined you are if
he's dialed in it's just not hittable and he's gonna be deployed against them
who are the other two guys that need to really not beat you so if he can keep
them and even labor Torres to an extent so like the four of the three of the
first four guys Evan Phillips will be the guy they want the face at times and
so I think that just puts them a little bit above another Yankees guy,
which it's close, but if I'm going to go to the Yankees, um, there's going to be
a couple of them next.
Yeah.
I think the problem with Phillips is a lot of the Yankees, even though they
haven't seen them much collectively have had a ton of success.
I mean, the one guy Phillips has eaten up is a guy that hasn't even taken
a plate appearance yet.
It's Trent Grisham.
I think Trent Grisham is over eightisham's 0-4-8 with five Ks.
And that's factored into an overall number, an 1137 ERA for Evan Phillips
against current Yankees, and that's with an 0-4-8 from Trent Grisham in there.
So there are a lot of difficult matchups for Phillips in particular.
It does make me wonder if his arsenal just does not work as well in the spot.
And that leaves the Dodgers in a tricky, at least a tricky spot.
If they need multiple appearances against the heart of the order, like if they can
only use him maybe one time through the top three or two through four hitters and
then say, okay, we burned Evan Phillips one time, we're not going to give them
multiple looks at him because they match up so well against him. Yeah. here's the here's what's so difficult about the modern game. So, you know,
I'm writing about a pitching plan for this series that's going to come out on Friday. And what we
found recently is that the third time you see a reliever is almost worse in a single series is
almost worse than the third time you see a starting pitcher in one game.
Batters have an 800 OPS the third time they see a reliever in a series. That's way too high. That is huge. That's higher even than what lefties hit off of righties with the platoon advantage
in the regular season. This is 800 is a big number. When you see that, that's almost like
when we talk about Trevor,
like when you see 60% tendency, you're like, Whoa, so 800.
You're like, what is that?
Like, I don't want my reliever.
Like, especially if you're talking about Soto and judge, you don't want,
even if you think Evan Phillips is good against Stanton and judge.
I agree. You kind of don't want to get in that 800 period.
Like, you don't want to have Evan Phillips come up with game six or game seven
on the line. And it's like the fourth time the judge has seen him.
You know, like I think then you're like, oh, he's, he's seen this.
He's been, he's been practicing. He's had the trajectory going like he, he's,
he's about ready to take one of these. So the difficulty is with the way we're using bullpens, you need to get through
the heart of the order twice in your wins.
So that's eight times in four wins, right?
And let's say you have a close game, you lose.
Maybe that's five games where you want to use your A bullpen.
So that's down 10 times that you need to see Soto and you need to get them out 10 times.
So you, and you don't want to use the same guy three or four times.
So you're like, this is a math problem.
You know, like so for Stanton and Judge, I fully agree that
Adam Phillips is one of the, is, you know, you can get them out.
Maybe three times, maybe three times with Evan Phillips.
Then Michael Kopeck, six.
Still missing like three to four.
Trump's got to close and yeah, like somewhat, you know.
That's why, that's why I think Daniel Hudson is also a big one.
That's a big deal.
I think I put them after Evan Phillips.
I like Tommy Conley.
I, I like who's the, who's I like clay homes actually.
Um, but Daniel Hudson has been throwing three miles an hour faster in the
postseason than he did in September.
And I thought something's wrong with Daniel Hudson and he's become, uh, if
you look at this, the stuff plus list, he's got one 23 stuff plus in the playoffs just behind him and Phillips.
He's super huge because he's that other righty.
He's that third righty.
That's going to get in there.
Uh, and then you use Ryan Brazier, I think as like, uh, you know, to try and
keep everyone from three, so those are your four righties that you're going to
use against Stanton and judge and you're going to, and you're, you want to use
Brazier last, you know, it's a, and you're, you want to use brazier last.
You know, it's a, it's a, it's a mix and match thing.
So I think the next part of the ranking that's tough is Hudson versus homes and,
um, and, uh, and Conley, I think they're all decent.
They're all pretty good.
I'm a little, are you at all nervous Trevor May that, that Tommy Conley has gone to 100% change-ups
in the last series?
So there's one interesting thing about that,
and I talked about it the other day on my show,
that everyone's like, how can you get away
with throwing that many change-ups in a row?
Now we understand the Lance McCullers curve ball.
A curve ball is a, you know, it breaks so much.
Or the mo-cutter, right?
Yeah, or like a weird moving pitch
that you can throw all the time.
But a change-up, once you know a change-up's coming,
you're supposed to be able to dial it in.
The thing is though, his variation,
well, so I went and looked, the variation of his vertical
on the pitch has been all over the place.
So sometimes he's throwing a true two seam, So sometimes he's throwing like a true two seam
and sometimes he's throwing a straight up splitter
and it's the same V-Lo.
The nice thing is too about that is as you get used
and the more pitches you throw,
fatigue affects the change of the least.
You know, your spin goes down, great.
V-Lo goes down, great.
It moves more, great. It's just command at
that time. So there is but like against the Guardians the Dodgers are a
different team. Mookie you can't just sit there and go change up change up
change up change up to Mookie Betts and get him get himself out all the time. So
he's gonna be limited as well. However However, there's this other side of things, which actually puts Kainly higher than Clay
Holmes for me, is because Mookie Betts is his worst pitch for variety is by far the
change up.
It's not-
That was what we used in the how to get Mookie Betts out second we did.
Yeah.
He hammer sliders and sinkers and Clay Holmes throws only those two pitches.
And if he can't locate a sinker, he's feeding one of the best slider
hitters ever sliders and he has no other options.
Haley at least can throw a pitch that he doesn't handle as well.
Even when he knows it's coming.
Same thing with Ohtani.
Ohtani hits sliders and fastballs, uh, sinkers and, and depth sliders
like what Clay Holmes throws better than he hits change ups overall.
I mean, he hits everything hard, but again, it, but it comes down to, are they just going to sell out
for the pitch or not?
And how much does that have effect with it?
I just think his repertoire are the same way that
Weaver is a fastball, he's got a cutter too,
but his changeup and fastball,
four seam are his bread and butter.
Those things line up against those two guys much better
than say the other way around with,
with sliders against the Yankees.
I'd say the changeups for the, for the. I'd say the changeups for the Yankees against the Dodgers
might have a better chance of neutralizing the guys that you don't want to beat you
better than the other way around.
But they also have grown more.
So there's a how rested will they be?
They've had five days off, so, you know, that should get you good.
But then again, your brain might say, hey, man, it's the off season. That happens sometimes. We were
like rusty as hell. And you come back and you're like, what's going on? It's because your body's
like, Hey man, we're supposed to be on the flight home. Like, what are we, what are we doing here?
So it'll be interesting to see, but I will say, I will say, I will put Kaylee even above
the heavy homes. But it does concern me. He's's gonna have to throw a fastball to the Dodgers,
you're just not gonna be able to do that the same way.
Or at least, at the usage he's had,
you're not gonna be able to do it two, three days in a row.
You're gonna have to be a different guy one of these days.
One thing that you just said that was really fascinating
that I don't think I've ever noticed before is,
I do think maybe he has two different change-ups. Yeah. I mean, you're talking about the
variance on the change-ups. It almost looks like there's a different cluster
on a savant page. If you just look at the top of his savant page, they now have
this movement profile. It almost looks like there's a different cluster of
change-ups that's about four inches less ride than the other cluster of change ups.
Yeah. I think he throws a Vulcan. He throws the middle, the split in the middle fingers,
like the, you know, Spock. Um, and he might split his fingers out farther. You can tell
when he taps, like some of them are really, really split. He's like trying to turn it
into a split change. And then the other one might be a little bit more restraint, more
like I'm going to get a strike or something like a sinker. Yeah, a little bit closer.
Use of fingers are together.
The more you're going to put force on the ball, that's like more like like a sinker,
they are going to put more Velo on the ball.
So it's going to be harder and straighter.
It'll be a little bit more true.
So you're yeah, it won't be like dropping off the table would be more gradual.
You'll be able to command it a little bit better, but it's still has changed up.
And he's got such a good feel.
I just don't think he's that confident in his fastball either right now.
His VELO has just kind of done this all year and he's used to throwing 98.
So that sometimes happens as well.
But when you got it and it's working, go for it, I guess.
Yeah.
I mean, I like maybe Holmes a little bit ahead just because I think people are going to pound
that great thing to the ground.
They may make contact, but I think, I think with all the
seamstriped wake, he's the seamstriped wake God.
When it comes to that sinker, I think that no matter how many
times you put that on trajectory, I don't, I don't know that the
trajectory can nail seamstriped wake, you know, like that's a pretty,
that's a really fine, precise thing to ask of it.
And, um, and it also has to do a little bit with deception of how the ball
comes out, how the ball spinning, um, and how it moves and how the looks out of the
hand and the trajectory can't really, it doesn't give you ball out of hand
because it can't, it has to spit out of a hole at some point.
So I think that, you know, to some extent, clay Holmes is still like a
little bit of an ace in the hole where he's like, you got two guys on base.
You got some righties coming up, you know, throw clay homes and try to get
that ground ball.
He's a little bit like Tyler Rogers on the giants.
We're like, it's a little bit frustrating as a closer because people make contact,
you know, because they, you know, you want more swing and miss.
Um, but it's really good as like an eighth inning guy or a guy who can come
on with people on base in this sort of old old school like I need a double play kind of idea
So I do have both those guys right around Hudson
I think that's a really hard group to to to separate each of them has their own strengths
The other thing that I would use Connelly for is it is it canley?
It's Cainley
Cainley the other thing I'd use Cainley for is
You know when you're talking about the left, the way I was talking about the righties and you know, you have to get them out 10 times or
whatever, you know, you got to, you got to circle Shohei Otani basically by himself or
Shohei Otani and Max Muncie.
Freddie Freeman is a little bit like, wait till he's, you see what he's doing, but you
know, they're going to put Freddie Freeman in between Muncie and
Shohei. So you've got this weird sort of five batter group with, you know,
Shohei at the top and Muncie at the bottom.
That's just, that's where you're like, Oh, what do I do against those lefties?
And, you know, we're talking about Nestor Cortez, you know, on the athletic
today as, you know, that's his deal.
Well, that's his deal.
But like I said, you don't want Nestor Cortez three times against Otani.
I, even if you say that's your deal, you're happy if you get it twice.
And you know, the other guy that you're going to use, um, against him is Tim Hill
and Tim Hill, I'm not putting anywhere near my top guys, but situationally,
he's a top guy.
And I think Canley has to be in the Otani mix because of the change up.
I agree.
And also Mookie's right behind him.
So he could, those, both those guys are good for Connelly.
The one nice thing about the Yankees is they have Carlos Rodin.
They have a lefty starter because that one day I think Carlos Rodin can take
an Otani out away from the bullpen.
He can go three times against Otani, I think, because we're done is so good.
And he's the lefty.
I think he can take one of those 10 from the bullpen.
You still got nine you got to get, which means and you only have Tim Hill,
Nestor Cortez and Tommy Canley.
And so, you know, if you're really going to get to 10 times
getting show your Tony out and wins, each of those guys
is going to see it a third time.
And I think, you know, a lot of people will be on the edge
of their seats when those things happen.
Yeah, I had the Rodin versus Ohtani
as one of my really important matchups
because of the lack of a power lefty in the Yankees bullpen.
You can only if they have Tim Maza on the roster too,
we'll see if he's even there, Hill and Maza,
you don't want Otani to get multiple looks at those guys.
Otani's not bad against lefties.
And if you're not throwing hard, especially,
he sees it one time, sees it the second time,
it's gonna be completely different, right?
You just, those guys don't work.
Yeah, I don't think Maza would face him
even if he is on the roster.
He's there if there's a blowout either way.
He just, you know, so he's not really be kind of like Alex.
Alex Young was for the for the.
Yeah, but I think they might throw Hill and wins.
I think they throw Hill and wins.
They're funky enough with a lighter earned it.
Yeah, I think lighter is weird because he's had a reverse split for his career.
So you have this righty that does well against lefties, that split finger.
That's probably your other guy that you're using
at some point in an important spot against Otani
and hoping it works out.
I don't know how many times you get away with it,
but you have to get away with it at least once.
If you, let's say it's sub three times scene,
who, what's the order that you're using,
you know, your guys against what Tony.
Let's say you OK, is it is it can be first?
So if it's can be first, you use them twice.
Who do you use next to instead of can be the third time?
Hill probably Hill maybe once.
Like if you can sandwich to like if it's like you go Hill and then someone else
and then Hill again, if you can get away with it, like I'm talking like the next day.
So Hill lighter is it right after I'm talking like the next day. So Hill lighter?
Is it lighter after Hill?
Well not the next day, like two games later.
Maybe light, so that's the thing.
Or Cortez.
Cortez, the thing it's interesting is like
how is Cortez, how do you wanna use Cortez
and how do you wanna use Stroman if they're on the run?
Like we gotta figure out who's where.
One of them has to be the bulk inning guy.
Like yeah.
Especially in the fourth game.
Yeah, Stroman will be.
He's not gonna come and face anyone on purpose.
He's gonna try, they're gonna be like,
we need three innings, please go throw three innings.
And he'll, I mean, he's the type of guy who's like,
I'll give you three, I'll give you four.
Like that's, so, but Cortez maybe, then again,
elbow inflammation, do we wanna throw him four times?
Like can he be effective four times?
Or can he get a lot better?
And he's a lefty that could figure in
on our Otani plan.
Yeah, maybe we start him against Otani, try to bring him in against Otani, like the fourth
of the starter and the game's tied and then try to get him around to face him again.
I could see that happening.
Or does Aaron Boone just go, play Holmes is our guy, man.
He's got to go get him out.
He's got to.
He has to because he's one of our best three relievers.
But the interesting thing to me, and we just mentioned it,
and I know we're going to talk a little bit more about our straight up matchup,
but Leiter is a very interesting thing, especially with how the last couple of
games against Guardians went and how how he did his job and did it well
after being called on after not being on the roster and being called on to do it.
He's going to be really important for me.
It's going to be a lot of because the starters just do not go deep into games. Even the Yankees have been
the best at it so far and traditionally though they still aren't getting as many
innings as they should from their starters. They just so like that that
fifth six inning like turnover is gonna be just it's gonna be the the inflection
point for every game like it was in the Mets series. In the sixth inning is when
the game either got out of hand or like it needed to be stopped
in the Mets never did it.
They kept like getting too much distance and were not able to come back at the
end of the game.
I think that that was happening kind of in the guardians all Stanton hit every
Homer in the sixth inning.
So it's like that is going to be the most important inning in the games.
Fifth and sixth inning are going to be the ones I'm paying attention to the most.
And you don't want to go to your three there so who gets it and who
has those like four or five six guys that do a better job that's gonna be
the I think what story of the game at least what I'm gonna pay to it I mean
they're gonna be like oh Donnie and judge that's what the media is gonna talk
about but I'm gonna pay attention to how well are those the set how well is the
second line doing in their bridge duties?
Because I feel like outside of Copac, there's no real like fireman guy.
There's no Kate Smith.
They can throw in the third and throw in the eighth.
Like no one's going to be doing that for these two teams.
Right.
It's like more of a depth the bullpen than it is like really excellent.
That's what they're still using their four through six guys in those bridge
spots, they're not using their four through six guys in those bridge spots.
They're not using their, their setup guy.
And if they're trying to get 60% outs again from their bullpen, like that's, yes, it's
going to be the fourth.
It's even going to be the fourth, the fourth, fifth and sixth, where it's going to be like
what are you guys doing?
Cause you, especially if you want to like alternate looks, you can't, can't just be
like, well, this is our plan.
It's always in the fourth, we go to this guy in the fifth, we go to this guy.
And the six to go to this guy.
No, then, then by the third time they see that the Yankees be like, Oh yeah,
we saw these guys in this order before we're, we're cool.
That's why I think you want to take those, this third, fourth, fifth
relievers and give them one shot each at the highest leverage spot and just say,
okay, you got to do it once.
And then you're not going to see them again until maybe the very end of the
series and even that's going to be them again until maybe the very end of the series.
And even that's going to be as situationally optimized
as it can possibly be in that situation.
That's what I think they are trying to put together.
I wonder if Jake Cousins has a couple of important innings
in this World Series.
He's kind of filthy.
He's been hurt a lot, but as far as swing and miss stuff goes, he's got that.
I mean, 34.2% K rate in the regular season has the walk issues that I think
leave him vulnerable in this sort of matchup.
But I think Jake Cousins for me is definitely inside that circle of trust
of guys
that I'm okay throwing out there against some of the Dodgers top hitters.
If I have to agree.
I think he's a way to, to alternate looks on, on righties in particular.
He's, you know, if you're doing the old Tampa Bay rays clock face, you know,
he's, he's different than almost anybody else on this roster.
He's kind of a side army rightyy, sinker slider guy, you know?
And, uh, you know, he even has a, uh, I've heard he has a fork ball that he,
that he never uses.
I doubt that's going to be, we're going to see it the first time in the world
series, but that would be pretty awesome.
If you do say one, please, please circle it and highlight it for me because I'm
waiting for him to throw it, but yeah, even with just the sinker slider, I think he's going to be a good weapon against
against righties. I put, I don't know if I put them in the top 10, the back end of the top 10 is,
is difficult. You've you got lighter.
You've got Jake Cousins.
I don't know. I don't know exactly who I fit in there.
Lighter has been pitching better in the postseason than they did in the regular season in terms of stuff.
What worse in terms of locations and so I don't know if I trust a guy that is so split finger heavy to not walk a bunch of guys if he walks you know to yankees that's instant trouble. You know, so I think, you know, I think I might sneak Jay Cousins into my,
despite inferior stuff plus to Mark Leiter,
I think I might sneak Jay Cousins in the back end of my 10.
Yeah, I think he belongs in that group.
Nestor is the toughest one to fit in
because we don't know for sure if he's on the roster
and then we don't even know on the side
if he's stretched out enough to go multiple innings or if he's one inning
at a time and we're going to see him in two or three different games like that's a great
unknown.
I think our first assumption was maybe heal and Nestor Cortez tandem in the middle of
the series to try and get five, six innings and then turn it over to the A bullpen if
everything goes well.
It's a little less than that if it doesn't. But if you told me, you know, Nester Cortez
is healthy enough to give you as many as six outs
on two occasions, then he's probably like a sixth
or seventh best reliever overall in the series
because of the importance of having a lefty on lefty
matchup and someone better than the likes of Hill.
It's just interesting.
He also was, he could come off injury, not having thrown in games,
like, Tenga, you know what I mean?
Yeah, we just saw a second do okay,
and then we just knew he wasn't the same.
So it's just like, it's just a crap shoot
based on how good someone feels.
We just don't know, like, if they're just like
the adrenaline of the situation, they're like,
I'm ready to go because it's the World Series
and I want to pitch in the World Series,
or if they're truly...
Oh, yeah, you can't even know if you're the World Series and I want to pitch in the World Series or if they're truly. Oh yeah.
You can't even know if you're the Yankees and you haven't throw a bullpen because you're like seeing the bullpen, you're like, ah, it was 90.
I don't know.
It looked okay.
Yeah.
Maybe that's 90 and okay in the bullpen, but 93 on the mound of the World Series and just fine.
Or it's, nope, it's still 90.
I think he's going to be the first time he goes out there.
There's just so many question marks.
I really do think it's going to be a, not the bleeding, give us a couple innings.
He our long guy at first.
And, but then they, maybe they, that happens in the game one game.
I, we hope not for, for Garrett Cole and for Rodone.
But if he has to, I'll know at that point whether or not what,
but they just won't know until he's in a game.
So it's just, that's a hard,
it's just such a wild card that I can't put him in here.
Yeah, it seems like a lot to start talking to him.
Like you're getting, you're our Otani guy.
Go get Otani out.
He's like, okay, I'll keep being me.
Like in game one of the World Series off of injury,
like here you go, Cole has kept them, you know,
kept them to one run in five and you know,
we need you against Otani.
It's like, okay, it's a one run game.
So given that he's coming off an injury, you'd both choose Tim Hill over
Cortez in that situation early in the series until we know what Nester has.
Yes.
And he did it.
It's funky enough to like last series too.
Tim Hill did.
How many times has Otani seen a Tim Hill type?
He's funky, man.
There's no one like him.
No one else throws the ball.
Is there another lefty that is under a sidearm?
I don't think there is.
I don't think there another one exists.
Like truly lower than 90 degrees.
I don't know if there is one.
He used to be like strong height,
like a little bit higher than the sidearm
and now he's just completely,
I'm just gonna be a Submariner and throw fastballs.
So yeah, it's one of those things like,
he's so funky that who knows how Tawny's gonna,
how that's gonna look to him.
As we know, Manaya gave him struggles,
at least in the first outing, like the guy stepping at him,
no matter how good you are,
guy stepping at you and then throwing across his body
into the other side of the plate.
It's just, there's something about it
that's hard to be on top of.
But then again, the guy's a freak, so who knows.
Oh, oh, hey, I got an answer for him real quick, sorry.
All right. Lowest lefty release points this year in baseball.
Tim Hill, three feet off the ground.
Second, whole be, whole be Milner.
Four point three feet off the ground.
Yeah. So he's the only one he's he's a unicorn.
And in terms of like how many times is what Tony's seeing?
Anybody like these guys?
Three is Joe Jacques.
Four is Rich Hill.
Five is JP Sears.
Six is Sammy Peralta.
I'm now going to put Otani as the batter.
And I bet you he hasn't seen any of these guys.
The I don't know, but I can speak to you how uncomfortable as a fan you are when
a Hobie Milner comes into the game just because it's, it's funky, but it looks so
hit a bull.
The lowest release point that, uh, that, that show your tiny has seen this year
from a lefty is Tom Cosgrove with a 4.78.
So Tim Hill's going to come in a foot and a half lower than the lowest release
points. So I, I would at least do it once.
I think I would do it twice depending.
I might even, I'm not like a results based guy, but if the first two went like,
you know, Tonya just didn't look like he could see it well,
then I might risk a third, but that's it.
I mean, there's going to be a point where it's going to be like,
we just have to do this.
Yeah, I know. I know the numbers dude, but what else am I supposed to do here?
He's funky, he's weird, he's done it the first two times, and we have to go off that.
I'm not throwing Stroman against Nohtani.
It's like when you walk Soto to get to judge with the bases loaded.
We know what usually happens, but it hasn't happened lately, we got to go off this.
We have to.
There's nothing else to do here.
Yeah, sometimes you get to those points
where it's a coin flip decision.
So you don't have an easy path
or you just are out of options
because you've already used someone else or.
Everyone's heard.
Everyone's heard.
Everyone's fresh.
No one's fresh.
Everyone pitched yesterday.
Sorry, Tim, here it goes again.
All right, so Trevor, your top five was Trinen Weaver,
Kopek, Phillips, Keenly, right?
So who do you have at the bottom half of your list?
Well, how do you round it out?
I would throw I would throw Clay Holmes at six.
And then I will go to just because the only reason that Daniel Hudson
seven here for me is just because he hasn't been used that much.
And I like to think that the Dodgers have some thinking behind that because he
has been really good I mean I know he's a little older maybe his stuff's a little
bit whatever but he could be the wild card he could be a guy they lean on he
throws really well and they just keep going to him and then Mark Leiter
probably goes in there Tim Hill probably goes in there and then I think another
guy in that realm of like you know know, Yamamoto's run four strong
innings, but now we're getting around the thing and we need a fifth inning guy.
I'll throw Anthony Banda in at 10, just because he's the lefty and he's, I played with Anthony
in 2021.
All this is just a little personal anecdote to see the things that he is, the way he has
changed and the way he's just bought into like, he used to have ride.
He used to sit there and just, I think it actually was 20 it was a 2021 yes it was
so he talked to Seth Lugo and I constantly about ride and about like
how do you spin your curveball so much he was super curious and he's trying to
get a riding fastball it looks like he's really bought in he always had good
electric stuff so to see him being successful like he is and just like
buying in and doing what he's buying into the thing and being good at it
that's good but I think that he that he's a wild card for,
we need a lefty to come in and get out,
Soto, jam him, get a double play,
maybe even Rizzo, I mean Rizzo had six hits in last series,
like we don't want, we need a guy to come in,
who knows, so I think, you know,
your lefty is always gonna be important,
so that's why I throw him a 10.
All right, you know, you went Weaver,
Kopek,
Tranon, Phillips, Hudson,
and then we got down to six at Holmes.
How do you round your list out?
I'm going to go Cainley.
Brazier.
Brazier, nice.
I think he's going to be really important
to diversify the looks against the righties.
You know, he's he he's underrated
and he got he was the only
pitcher that saw a Met three times.
In the Mets Dodger series, the only.
Dodger reliever that saw Met three times
other than their mop up guys was Ryan Brazier. He saw Pete lanzo three times and he got him out all three times.
So i have you know peter lanzo and aaron judge.
Then i'm not saying the same guy but they're both highball hitters.
You know the bit you know a little bit more weakness download you know there's some similarities there that I'd be like brazier is a guy who's gonna hopefully get judge out for me twice
So that alone puts him in my top ten because I need to I need to figure out all my judge outs in there
I'm gonna put hill as the best of the lefties
And that makes me at eight
That makes me at eight.
That gives you nine. Nine. That's nine already.
And I already said I'm sneaking cousins in at 10.
The only guy that I want to get on this list that I don't right now is
is Nestor when I know.
You know what his role is, what he is.
I would have Nestor. you know, what his role is, what he is.
I would have Nestor in this, and I might have him as high as Daniel Hudson
if he was throwing well.
And especially out of the pen, could he throw 93?
You know, out of the pen?
Definitely possible.
There's a natural segue here of the critical matchups
that could swing this series.
And I just look at, you know,
I mentioned the Rodin versus Otani
and the importance of him getting through the lineup,
or at least through Otani a third time in those starts.
That's gonna be really important.
I could see Ko-Pek against Judge being a matchup
at some point where the command is wobbly, Soto either works
a walk or gets on against him, there's traffic, and you get the right on right matchup with
Kopek against Judge and we'll have to see if he can actually execute.
That's going to be a spot where I'm like, all right, which Michael Kopek shows up?
Because if he's in and around the zone the way he can be great. No problem
He's gonna cruise if he's throwing non competitive pitches
Then it's a spot where a beginning happens and it's a spot where the Dodgers needed
Kopek to work through a jam, right? So I'm looking at that as one of the really important matchups
That's also fascinating because that's strength on strength
Judge is a high ball hitter. You know, Kopec is a high fastball guy.
Is Kopec going to try and throw like four straight cutters at the knees to, uh, to Aaron Judge?
If so, and he executes them, then he might get the out.
But I don't think the cutter is necessarily Copac's best pitch.
And what he wants to do is get a strike or two with the cutter and finish you with the four seam.
And you could get to two strikes on judge and try to finish him with the four seam.
And that's when he gives it the Homer.
So, you know, judge eliminates Copac's best strength in certain in a certain way,
or at least matches it.
So that's strength on strength in a way that,
you know, Kopeck may just say, screw it,
I can throw it by this guy.
And then Judge says, no, you can't.
And that's one of those matchups too,
batter versus pitcher stats.
They're not predictive, they're always tiny samples.
I don't know how much they actually mean.
Curious to get Trevor's thoughts on those a little bit,
but Kopeck has held Judge to an 0 for 6 with 2Ks so far
in their previous meetings.
And it's not like the Michael Walker thing
where it's a long sample and it's right on right changeups
that have worked really well.
It's typical like reliever versus slugger.
It could turn on one bad pitch, right?
It's that kind of split.
So I wouldn't put any stock into the success he's had so far,
but I'm 99% sure they will mention that on the broadcast
the first time Kopec faces judge in the series.
I mean, you know, Mookie Betts was one for six against me
with two or three strikeouts.
And am I confident?
Absolutely not.
I feel like I got lucky every single time.
He is a single.
That's all he has.
And he would be like, no man, you something about you.
And I'd be like, no, no, you're lying.
He's just trying to get me to.
If we had a seven, you would hit Homer.
Yeah.
And the thing about that is Copic's like, you know, he's a,
the guys he dominates, they're swinging missing 60%
of the time.
You get two strikeouts out of six at bats.
That's not, that's not him dominating. And I would like to see the four non strikeouts and
what those look like probably some flyouts right so and again like you
said it's it's power on power but it's like his best like the way you copac gets
that look in his eye like here's 101 and I'm only gonna throw this and that isn't
if there's any guy outside of Aaron Judge
or not Aaron Judge outside of Juan Soto who that doesn't work on it's Aaron
Judge he's just like you can't you're not gonna be able to out power me so
that is an interesting one for me too yeah and and you mentioned that the the
the interesting thing too now that we see the Dodgers in the World
Series again is how the big bugaboo with them lately, or the last whatever since they haven't
been getting as far into the playoffs, is how often they make decisions based on sample
size stuff from the regular season and they try to put themselves in the best position
and sometimes they make decisions that remove someone's ability to just step up.
I saw there's a moment that the Padres did it, I think it was game two, when Morihan
walked a guy 2-2.
And then they intentionally walked Betts because they're like, you can't get him out.
It's the fourth inning or whatever and it was 5-4 after a wild pitch.
Then they ended up losing.
And I was like, see, that's the type of thing you're like, Hey, Adrian, I don't
believe that you can get him out even though you're up, it's a two, two count.
I don't, and, and that is over managing in my opinion, just because yeah, the
numbers might say it's right, but that it's not, that's not how we operate here.
You gotta, Adrian needs to get him out.
He, it doesn't matter if it's not a good matchup.
He still has to get him out.
It might be better to send the pitching coach and say, let's, you know, don't give him anything in the middle.
You can walk him, but you know, let's, if you can get him out, great.
But what you're guaranteeing is you're bringing up another, even though he's
banged up another MVP to hit after him.
And it's a lefty that doesn't have lefty splits.
And Morahan didn't have the lefty, didn't have a huge platoon split either.
So it was just like, the numbers actually don't even back this up much.
It's just, you're, it's like an emotional.
So it's interesting cause the Dodgers have done this in the past. So, um,
but I want to see some guys do something they're not on paper have done before
or supposed to be doing that.
You know who I'm circling for that is Ben Casperius, you know,
because he's wild and has great
stuff, he's righty and he's going to be put in to a losing game and he could
step up and keep them close while the Dodgers offense tries to cook.
And so, you know, I think that there could be a game where get Ben Casperius
comes in, gets them six outs and keeps them, you know, scoreless.
And all of a sudden, you know, it's a tie game again.
And the A bullpen comes back out.
So that would be, that would require some of what you're saying.
It's sort of like, Hey, you're a guy now.
I know we're, we're down by one or two.
Like this isn't, we're not, we're not waving the white towel.
We're saying you, we can't use our a a but you are the guy that we you need to step up now and get these outs
And I think Casperius could do it
I kind of excited about him and especially in this role when he is a starter
He gets a little bit more exposed by his lack of command
But as a reliever, he can simplify his arsenal
and kind of really hone in.
So he could be an X factor for them.
Let's say you're trying to keep it close
and on the Dodger side,
Kasperius going against the Yankees.
That's the three innings, just keep your team in it.
And on the other side,
it's Stroman against the Dodger's lineup.
Who are you more comfortable with in that role,
trying to get through the opposing lineup once
while keeping it close.
I kind of like Kasperius because one of the things that we've been learning about is the
familiarity, the role of familiarity with shapes and familiarity with relievers.
Third time you see reliever in a series, third time through the order.
These are familiarity things.
I think every team like the Yankees or Dodgers should have like a Ben Kasparis that they keep in the minors all year and they bring up for the
playoffs because nobody has a mental book on Kasparis.
Who wants to be that guy? Let's see some hands.
We really like you, but we really want to bring you up in like on September 30th.
Is that cool?
you, but we really want to bring you up in like on September 30th. Is that cool?
We really value you, but really wants you to be that, that wildcard.
Think we think of you as Francisco Rodriguez, look him up 2002.
That's you're our guy.
But you know, everybody has a mental book on Marcus Stroman, dude.
Yeah.
I mean, everybody on the Dodgers is, I'm sure has seen Marcus Stroman at least eight, 10 times.
And command is this thing.
We don't know where his command's gonna be either.
We don't know how fresh he's gonna be.
So he needs command, like you said,
because various can get by with stuff.
And I would lean towards that guy more than I would
the command guy that hasn't pitched in a while.
You know, the only Dodger who's just torched
Marcus Stroman is Kevin Keirmeyer.
He's seen a lot of Mookie Betts.
A lot of first pitches, huh?
Out of his shoes on a sinker.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So a lot of Mookie Betts, uh, Marcus Stroman matchups that have gone Stroman's way.
Wow.
Okay.
Freddie Freeman is one for 18 against Marcus Stroman.
I was at least right that they have a huge mental Rolodex.
I'm surprised that Stroman got the better of them, but you know, some of this
might have also been earlier career Stroman.
So there's a difference.
That's why this is all ridiculous.
Like 10 year big leaguer has seen guys over various points of his
career, various points of their careers.
Everyone's changed a bunch of times over the span of that matchup.
That's why the matchups are so meaningless for me.
Any other critical matchups you've got circled,
Trevor, do you got any other spots
that you're looking at saying,
okay, this could be huge if it goes one way or the other.
I will say this, I'm banking on this happening
at least one time.
And I think that Clay Holmes is gonna have to get through
that's Freeman and then Te'Oscar.
It'll be really interesting.
Multiple times.
Yeah, like so the first time that happens,
cause I'm anticipating this being like a sixth inning,
three two, four two game.
And I really wanna see Mookie versus Clay.
I want to see how Mookie handles or how comfortable he looks
just because he's so quick at dropping his head on that down and in sinker.
And he's so good at hitting sliders, no matter how funky you are.
So it's...
What's left for Clay Holmes if there's those...
And I've seen Clay as of late, especially when his
commands not great and his sinkers a little up and he's just like, I have
to throw sliders and like, he looks like he's trapped.
He's like, Oh God, I have one.
I have one thing right now.
And this guy and Mookie's like the best, he's the best slider, right?
I'm right.
Slider hitter.
I've, I think we talked about this very early in the season, but just like
in terms of not chasing and then when it is in the zone, just smashing it.
Um, uh, you know, he's got what?
Four home runs.
And he can pull them even though the movement's going away from him, right?
Oh yeah.
He goes down and gets it.
And it's like, but if it's one inch off the plate, he takes it.
You're like, I have no confidence in this pitch and he doesn't have a lot of, it's,
it's got more depth than a lot.
And that's, he goes down and gets stuff down and both of his pitches go down.
So, um, obviously he's throws really hard and has a hard slider.
So like, you know, that's going to factor in, but I think there's going to be a
bridge moment where it's going to be very important for him to get Mookie bets out.
Um, so I'm in, uh, and I might happen twice.
And I think that's going to be a possible turning points one way
or the other.
How would you call it desperation or Wiley smart?
Well, one thing we found out from Cleveland
was they were top two in the league in high sliders,
high change ups, right on right change ups, you know, like
they were, they, they are top three and weird.
They love the, it was the Brent Rooker.
I don't know if you saw Brent Rooker retweet of, of the Eli Morgan high change
up that came back in and he was like, your brain cannot make you swing at this.
So would it be weird or desperate if you see Clay Holmes throwing
front door high sliders to Mookie Betts?
It would be weird.
My assumption, just because of how hard that is to do, and I'm probably speaking
for my own, this is my own bias, but like, it's so hard to do that on purpose
because the there's two, the two misses are you hit
them or it's right down the middle and you're used to burying stuff trying to
be nasty for swings and misses and when that's your natural inclination pull
anything if you're trying not to give up damage. What about a high and away slider? Maybe the high and the way slider where you're trying to get them to like try to go out and just poke it. Like that could be like, not even like a cutter
cause he doesn't have them, but he throws it,
you can throw 87, 88, you can get it like hard.
He throws a hard slider that supposedly
you have more command of.
It's not, you're not trying to throw a high
and away sweeper or something.
He's trying to throw a high and away hard sliders,
maybe possible.
I could see that, but again, then again,
you're like, it's an elevated slider.
Like, do I really want to do that?
You know that the commentator, the funniest thing is I, I, I sent the thing
out about Tanner by B's, uh, home run to giant collar Stanton and it was like,
well, he hung a slider.
I'm like, well, he missed his location by, you know, 10 inches.
Um, but the movement was, this was actually better than his average slider.
So is that a hanging slider?
It's just, you know, you did that on purpose.
Everyone said you hung a slider to Mookie bets, you know, if you did that on purpose, everyone said you hung a slider to Mookie Betts, you know, it's like, no, actually the game plan was to throw a high slider.
It's just Mookie's Mookie, you know.
Mookie's Mookie.
At the end of the day, Clay throws his slider on his sinker.
So the movement is away from the middle of the zone.
That is why he has those two pitches.
And those two versions of his pitches are the ones that Mookie Betts hammers. So it's like, so
does he change, does he take a shot like to try to finesse one? That's what I'm saying,
is it desperate or smart if he does something totally different? He might. He would have to be desperate I think,
especially with, you know, it's not like Clay's like, you know, pinpoint command.
He's got good command but it's not like, you only throw that hard and it moves that much.
You're Zach Britton.
You're not painting constantly.
And so maybe he tries it because it's the World Series
and scared money don't make money,
but I just don't think it's a great matchup
even though it's right on right.
And it's gonna be interesting to see
if Aaron Boone goes out there with like a,
yeah, because we got Clay Holmes
and he throws a sinker and he throws a slider and it's a right on
right matchup and if he knows whether or not Mookie's like mmm like that's my I'm
different that's the stuff I love I would rather a lefty come in throwing
weird stuff and my guess is if he can he just tries to throw the more most extreme
versions of those two that are basically out of the zone and he basically walks Mookie.
What did Otani just do?
Why is Clay in the game right now
and is in the middle of anything, is Otani on base?
That'll change things too, right?
And then if you're worried about Otani over there first,
good luck, man.
I'm glad that I'm not you.
He might be running too, right?
Yeah.
Then you have him on second, you're like,
now I really can't let Mookie hit anything.
Cause he, and, and so then you're stuck and both sides
are going to deal with this stuff.
We're like, okay, it's Soto on now I got to face judge.
They're going to both have to do this.
This is going to be a bunch of relievers holding their breath
all game waiting to go in the game.
So I,
I think the off, I think there'll be a lot of offense
in this series, right?
I think there'll be a lot of offense. We've, right? I think there'll be a lot of offense.
We've been talking about pitching the whole time,
but I kind of feel like the average game is going to be like six, five or something.
Didn't the Dodgers just score 10 runs in every single one of their wins
this ever they ate nothing.
So it was like, yeah, I mean, I think the Yankees staff is a little better
than the Mets staff, but that's still great.
Both teams are packed full of competent hitters that can do a lot of damage too.
So it's going to be a grind.
That's why we were focusing so much on the matchups and the bullpens
throughout today's show.
We're going to go on our way out the door.
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That is gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels.
We're back with you on Thursday.
Thanks for listening. Bye!