Real Kyper & Bourne - First-Round Goalie Evaluations

Episode Date: April 30, 2024

Nick Kypreos, Justin Bourne and Sam McKee start with a review of what has been a lopsided first round for the favourites before they are joined by Rangers analyst Steve Valiquette (3:21) to break down New York's sweep over Washington. Then, he discusses the significance of 'bad goals' in the playoffs, the Islanders' goalie dilemma, how to explain Hellebuyck's struggles, the Canucks' outlook without Demko (or DeSmith) and more goalie situations around the first round. Finally, they regroup with Sam for news & notes - Stamkos' future in Tampa, what the summer's coaching carousel might look like and the two goalie interference calls in the Bolts/Cats' series-deciding game.The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Sports & Media or any affiliates.

welcome back into the real kipper and born show our national edition as justin born shows off his new bob born rookie card first in my life kenny reed just dropped it off so like all these years you weren't collecting cards of your dad at all i had cards but for some reason they just didn't have a rookie card i have stacks of them were they in your um bike spokes lanky pivot man acquired from kansas city lanky look at the things they wrote on cards back then lacks experience but shows definite promise of future success nice lanky pivot man that's what they called me in high school nice he's justin bourne he's sammy mckee we're with you for the next hour on real kipper and bourne national edition what that bob bourne reminded me of the

billy smith interview that you tweeted out last night which is one of the all-time greats if you go to borne's twitter he's with dave hodge and the commissioner commissioner the president i guess of the nhl back then was john ziegler and he just won the con smith and they're presenting him the con smith and he's just giving it to gretzky for being a diver and then he dove and then he dove and it's like that old two can play that game how do you like that one canada he dove. And it's like that old two can play that game. How do you like that one, Canada? He's cutting a wrestling promo. Like you just won the cup.

Usually everyone's like, just like to thank our opponent. You know, what a great opponent. They called the greatest player in history a diver the moment he wins the consmite. He's got a beer in his hand. He's probably got a dart somewhere not too far. Just wanted to show Canada two can a dart somewhere. Not too far. And said four other guys on his team should have won the conspire.

The first one was your dad. He was a good teammate. They loved him battling Billy. Wherever you are watching live on Sportsnet Sportsnet 650 in Vancouver Sportsnet 960 in Calgary. We're real happy you're along with us in this hour of Real Kipper and Born, brought

to you by Bet365. In a few minutes, we're going to welcome in Steve Allocat, analyst for the New York Rangers on MSG, also CEO of ClearSight Analytics. We'll get the lowdown on all the goalies around the league and who's making the cut

and who hasn't up until this point weird first round for me kip like you know usually the first round of stanley cup playoffs is unbelievable and it's tight and it's overtimes i mean we got how many series are three one or over right now all of them but one yeah there Yeah. There's four games on the schedule tonight, including the Leafs. Four teams could move on tonight. There's Bruins could move on tonight. Carolina could move on tonight. Colorado move on tonight.

And Vancouver could move on tonight. And like maybe two overtime games all playoffs? Panthers and Lightning had one. And wasn't there another double OT one maybe? Carolina, New York went to OT. Yeah. We're going to get to Steve Aliquette, but we'll get into all of those series, including the Tampa Bay, Florida.

That's one of those series where you thought this could easily be a Stanley Cup final. But boy, did Florida do a number on Tampa Bay to close out that series. Okay, let's welcome in Steve Aliquette. Busy guy, or maybe not so busy with the New York Rangers sweeping Washington. How are you, pal? Very good, boys.

I just got off the ice. It never stops. I'm glad to be on with you guys. All right, so we were just talking about, you know, the reputation of the National Hockey League the last few years is the first round's the best, right? The closest, the tightest, players getting shot out of a cannon.

What have you seen so far, including the Rangers sweeping Washington? I'm not sure that we're real surprised on that one, but certainly I think the Panthers dismantling the Lightning so quickly might be a surprise. Yeah, to start with the Rangers, guys, the vibe is really high the expectations

are high everybody's trying to find out the similarities between this year and 1994 kipper yeah look there was a solar eclipse in 94 i think you guys have heard all this uh a first round sweep in 94 a president's trophy in 94 even morning, I'm on the ice with some kids from Canterbury High School, and they're drawing the parallels because their last championship was in 94, and they won a championship this year. Everybody has a positive energy about the team, including OJ Simpson. I was going to say, you left out OJ was in the news both years too. So I'm telling you guys, like, it's a real thing.

I mean, to compare it to what's going on in Toronto, where I can only imagine the temperature, is it on cremate today? For us, it is on cremate. Like, we haven't had a bad day in a week, and everybody believes this is the year. So, the excitement's at an all-time high okay so like what is it okay because the feeling the last few years is you don't need a star goalie here and uh you know just make the saves you're supposed to and don't put so much money back there but

sometimes it's worked for some teams and some it certainly hasn't in this first round yeah you know what kipper um i was just looking at this before we got on because you and i had a conversation recently about bad goals and how much it just cripples a hockey club how about this stat from this year so far in the first round there have been 14 bad goals we saw one last night, Dandadov, from the corner off of the helmet of Thompson. So that's a bad goal. Vegas loses. Only three wins of the 14 games where we've had a bad goal at one side and the other goalie doesn't allow one.

Talbot won a game, Thompson won a game, his game won, and Georgiev had a win. But it's losses for everybody else that's why when that frederick goal goes in in game three i'm like oh you're done it's a killer even though it's the first goal of the game unless the other guy evens it up with a bad one you're not going to win in the playoffs the margins are too slim valley and you're right yeah like how do you judge a bad goal like sometimes people can watch and go that's not a bad goal and then How do you judge a bad goal? Like sometimes people can watch and go, that's not a bad goal. And then you go, it's a bad goal.

And then there's the fans that may be caught in between. Maybe they're not educated enough. What are the criterias for you as a bad goal? Is it first the angle? Is it second positioning of the goalie? Where do you start? If all the goalies in the NHL are stopping a kipper and your goalie isn't, it's a bad goal. Imagine that there's a hundred shots.

This is a good example from a presentation I gave a few years ago to an NHL team. And they said, how would you rate this chance? It was a point shot. It was a deflection from the ice and it went over the glove. And the coach said, we would call this a great A. And I said, okay, I just want you to understand that I don't wake up in the morning and put my pants on and say, good goal, bad goal.

That's not how we're doing this. But there have been a hundred of those this year, and there have been three goals. That means everybody else is stopping it. And just because it looks like a good goal to you, if there's only three or four or five on every hundred, it's a good goal to you, if there's only three or four or five on every hundred, it's a bad goal. And it's up to us as a company to track these events all the same way. They have rolling averages.

The goal from Dan and I, that's an obvious bad goal. It's from the dead angle. You should be able to shoot that 100 times and score once from that distance. It was more of a corner distance so it's really about just uh doing the same thing over and over again cataloging these events the same way belly one thing i know about keeping people's attention on the radio is don't talk about teams like carolina the islanders but i don't care tell me about the goaltending on long island today i mean this is fascinating to you the varlamov goes in with, what, a month ago of the season or three weeks?

He gets hot. Sorokin's supposed to be the guy. He loses when he goes in. They go back to Varley. They win again. What's happening in the Islanders' crease? Well, to start with, I love Varley. I played with him, actually.

And I will also contend that he wears 40 because of me because he was my backup. He got a slovel in 2005. That's how far back we go. And I joke about that because he was my backup in 2005 that's how far we go and i joke about that because he was 17 and you could already see how elite he was but the story uh for varley being able to play over sorokin i i'm having a hard time with sorokin except when i do watch the goals what i see is a goalie that's not tracking the pass. So what that means to us, I'm wearing a track suit. If I'm on the ice with a young kid, I would say to them, as soon as the puck gets across my zipper,

my head is on the puck and I have to begin my movement. What Sorokin's doing, Borny, is he's just sitting in his stance and he's watching it go. And then he's getting there and he's late. And if you rewatch the goals for his last game before he got pulled, he was late on all three of them. And when you're late in this game in the playoffs, when you're facing the best shooters, you can't make up for that ground.

Varley, he's played well. The one game they gave back when they were up by three, he had a couple of bad goals in that game. That was on my list here for goalie performances that allowed bad goals that didn't win the game. We're talking to Steve Alicat, analyst for the New York Rangers on MSG and CEO of ClearSight Analytics. The Vezna favorite, Connor Hellebuck.

How do you explain this? I spent a lot of time on him today, boy. He's faced 15 screens in the, boy. He's faced 15 screens in the postseason. He's given up six goals. He's faced nine east to west. This is actually, I don't know if you can't see my screen anymore. Nine east

to west. He's allowed five goals. So when you look at his overall game, you don't like it. However, do you remember when I was on with you guys a few weeks ago and I said the one thing about Winnipeg I'm not sure about their defense? I didn't think they were big enough. Nobody's given up better quality scoring chances in the postseason

than the Winnipeg Jets. They've been awful. They've been just awful. They're not even close. They're the 16th, but they're even below 16th. If there was any chance I could put in a few more teams, they'd be in 20th. Really been bad.

They've been giving up a lot. They haven't made it easy on him. He hasn't been good, but, you know, he's actually performing below average, below league average, but they're giving up a ton. Yeah, you're tough to win when you're doing that. But, you know, some teams in fate in light of not playing awesome the vancouver canucks have not had many shots they actually i believe set the record for the

the fewest shots over the first four games of a playoff series and they're up 3-1 they have wins from demko and she loves and to smith what are your thoughts of their chances now relying on the third guy i doubt you've seen him play much as you think he only has 10 NHL games. Do you guys remember two years ago when the Rangers went seven games and Louis Domingue confessed that he had spicy pork and broccoli? Yeah, I do. So it went the distance that series. And coincidentally, they went through Jari, then Casey to Smith,

who has a reputation for leaving and some sometimes guys have that and now you're on your number three it didn't show up until game six uh crider if you guys remember this shot it was from honestly it was from the trent frederick spot the 625 shots and you only score three goals all regular season that's how you define a bad goal well he gave up that exact same shot if you go back and watch the game six goal and it was in overtime and it was at his body and he brought his blocker and it went off his blocker went over his head and in the net so you don't know when it's going to happen yeah but the damn always breaks there's such a difference between a number one and a number three.

And I can tell you that quite honestly. I was a number three. You just met an expert. The best number three of all time as far as working. There you go. There you go. We saw two pretty darn good goalies in Florida, Vass and goalies in Florida.

Vass and goalie Bob here. And I mean, for Bobrovsky now to come full circle from those first three or four years in Florida, where it was to the point where it's like, you're untradeable to this. I mean, it's one of the better, I think, NHL goaltending stories in recent memory for me. It is. You know, it's funny because I know I've talked on this show

about expectations and how it can really change things for goalies. In those first couple of years, man, he was wearing that contract with every single shot he was fighting the puck it was weird to me too because you know kepper i shared with you how i look at the data if i see that somebody's performing well below league average i just go right to the video and i'm just figuring out why okay what's the theme here well bobrovsky before signs the deal, he's one of the best goalies on breakaways. He's one of the best goalies east to west. And then all of a sudden, the following year, he's the worst. How can you explain that?

And there was no decision-making problems. There was no depth problems or positioning issues or tracking. And it just seemed to me like he lost a little bit of that the edge that he had, his intensity, his fight or it was too much and he wasn't be able able to stop the puck I honestly I know I've said this

before but it's hard to know exactly what's going on between the ears of the goalie except for seeing the issues they have with early goals against in a game or bad goals and against in a game or based on the score of the game score tied up by one down by one who's allowing the most goals and those to me are always psychological you can at least have a pathway to an answer that way but seeing somebody flip from that good to that bad the extremes saw it this year at the beginning of the year two of the number of goalies and philip gustafson comes to mind the beginning of the season for sorrows and we we saw it a little bit for the first half of the season with a lot of guys and this was a strange year in that well there's a another canadian team to get to that we'll get to but

while you're talking about that florida tampa bay series uh just vasilevsky is he where do you have him in his career arc he's had some work done now right he had hips done was it or whatever yeah he's he's hurt a little bit does he look like a different goalie this season to you after coming back all right so hear me out on this when when you guys watch vassie and it's been well documented that he has issues from point shots with traffic and if you look at his head does it not look like this to you guys yeah he's got he's got it up so because his head's so high my hand right here just below my chin i can't even see it so you can imagine that he's got to just bring his head back down he's got to degree his head

back down so that he can see the scope of the ice better and he won't come down to the ice like a ton of bricks and then spread his knees apart when there is a screen a broken play or a rebound because he's having issue with all of that stuff around the net and it's been in the postseason for the last two years early exits uh toronto i think had six or seven point shots with broken plays and rebounds last year. And it's the same story again this year. And I think he's just got to change his posture. It would be a conversation where we're going to take your head, we're going to degree it down, that's going to help your posture come down.

And now when you are looking over the screen, you'll have a better cone of vision, and you will be able to get down to the ice better, and you'll have a better seal. It's looking like the toronto maple leafs are going to ask joseph wall to save their season tonight in boston judging from our conversations uh no real surprise on your part that samson off couldn't finish this series no not at all it's um it's funny i spent quite a bit of time on this because it's a fascinating story.

And I think the interesting thing about knowing your goaltenders and during the season, it can happen where you can't properly identify them. Because even though they're on the same team, they can face a different array of quality chances. I've played on teams where you sometimes feel like you're at Christmas and you're saying, I feel like I've gotten every hard start. And this other guy that I'm playing with is getting every layup. And what I feel like with the way that Wohl came back, you shouldn't go with him in those games against Boston and make an easier ride for Ilya Samsonov.

And I can tell you right now, it's here in the data, if you want to look at the quality of chances faced for Samsonov versus Wall since they got back, it was 23rd. 23rd is Samsonov as far as the environment that he played and the difficulty of the shots that he faced through the season. And it's 48th for Josephoseph wall he had a much more difficult season in net for the toronto maple leafs he played he had harder starts so the conclusion that i came to which i think is kind of fascinating is we play better as a team in

front of samsonov but the more consistent and better goalie is joseph wall and that's where there was a bit of a conflict. And I think that if you're having a hard time reading the data that you do have on your goalies, it's hard for you to properly evaluate and measure the quality of the chances they're facing unless you're doing it the right way for the entire league so you have context. But you have to answer these questions. Who's had the tougher starts? Who's playing better? Who's more consistent? You know, one of our client teams asked me to build out a quality starts page.

So I would look at this, and this was really indicative of not going with Samsonov at the beginning of the series. The positive game percentage, the games that he had a positive impact, positive performance, it was only 55% of the games that he played this year. Only Darcy Kemper was worse. So 18 out of his 40 starts this year were statistically considered bad. He had 11 blown games. He had seven bad games. And conversely, Joseph Wall, he had a positive game percentage of 72%. 72% of the games he played, he had a positive impact in the game. He either played a great game, a quality game,

or an average game. But he didn't have the bad games and the blown games like Samsonov had. And he had three stolen wins during the season to Samsonov's one. Samsonov had 11 blown games guys. Yeah. You keep going to the playoffs like that.

That was to me, negligence on the part of the decision makers on that one. Where was this info? Oh my God. For us to get to the Toronto Maple Leafs. How have they hired you? Hey man, I gotta tell you,

I'm sorry, but I, I, I pretty busy guy too, but we to tell you, I'm sorry, but I'm a pretty busy guy, too. We really appreciate you coming on. I can't do everybody's homework, boys. I know, you're right, you're right. But I'm going to ask you to do one more homework on,

I want to hear your thoughts on Frederick Anderson, because a lot of Leaf fans. We need to do Skinner, though, before I go. Okay, yeah, we're going to get to Skinner, too. But just Frederick Anderson, is he changed? Is he learned? Is he like Bobrovsky now turning a corner? Is he rested?

Was he ever rested as a Leaf? Did he ever go into the Leafs postseason rested? No. Guys, mismanagement of games played. That's where we're at right now in the NHL. It's been a very long time. I think we have one winner in the last 20 years that has played 60 or more games do you remember how much he was playing back in those days you're right you're right come on i always hated that because guys it's easy to see too because all right let's

not even talk about statistics at all but let's just talk about eyeballs if i can't see a goalie beating a pass getting to a complete stop and then being able to make a save and doing that over and over again over the course of a game rather than getting wide and getting into the butterfly slide too soon because they're so wide and so committed to their stance because they're fatigued and they get wide early watch a goalie at the beginning of the season and see their feet and you have there's, we use them at MSG, that you could measure the distance between Igor Shosturkin's inside left ankle to his right ankle at the beginning of the season when he is physically fit versus when you feel like he's burning out like he did in January this year.

He was almost a foot wider in his stance. So when the puck is being passed, I talked about the puck coming across my zipper. It's so much more difficult for me to get across. And now I've basically emptied all the gas out of my foot before I can even get across explosively in one piece. And you can see goalies with your computer, frame by frame, showing up later and later and later. And when they get behind like that,

it's a losing proposition. The goalie's entire game is predicated on and later and later. And when they get behind like that, it's a losing proposition. The goalie's entire game is predicated on the harder and smarter I work before the shot, the easier the shot's going to be. And I physically have to be able to do that. It's a big component of this thing. It's not just technique. Wow.

I mean, this is all great stuff. And last one before, well, I leave you alone anyway. I'll leave you alone too. It's just Stu Skinner we're in our national hour here in Canada he's got his face 60 shots in the last two games and only given up one goal has it looked better

yeah just one thing too he lost game two and I loved his demeanor because he didn't get rattled at all for a guy who's supposed to be so inexperienced at this. Yeah, I agree with you, and I heard your comments on that, and I agree with you.

Has not allowed a bad goal, so you can start there. He's been very solid. There's been a couple of games where L.A. just didn't create a whole lot, and it's not going to be that easy to get through Edmonton unless you get a lot. He's also, one thing I can say about skinner very good off the rush he's got a good rush save percentage um so i think the next opponent it's going to be a different series like for me this first round series for a lot of these teams for a lot of these goalies it hasn't been a massive test. Not every series has been as quality as Dallas-Vegas. We've seen quite a few sleepers here, guys,

and there's been a little bit of a low event thing happening here. But I can tell you, as far as trends, because I'm following the goal trends as they happen, there have been 31 goals in the playoffs this year. This might surprise you. It's low east to west, below the hash marks, from one side of the ice to the other that's been the goal that's gone in more than any other and then it's broken plays

from the point we see those every night and then it's layered screens from the point so those have been the three highest events as far as goals for and um like look you see samsonov and uh i sent you guys some notes on that um he couldn't move east to west, and that really killed you. I think it was six goals in total. Let me see here. Six goals on 11 east to west plays. He had a 45% chance to make a save. You know, you can't win.

You can't win like that. Buddy, what an effort today on the real Kipper and Boren show. It was like you just saw 50 shots in 60 minutes right now. Hey, Kipper, do you think I'm coming on your show with a butter knife? A dagger, my friend. Thanks for doing this. Outstanding, Valley. Thanks, Valley.

Oh, wait, wait, wait. Before I go, I got one note because Sammy, I heard Sammy talking about this. He was worried about the two on one conversion rate against the Leafs. Remember that show? All right. During the regular season, I think I know what Sammy saw 20 times. Their opponent went across the ice east to west, got the pass, got through on the two on one, nine goals were scored. It was worse than the NHL. Oh, cool. That's great. But the 15 goals against on the two-on-ones, that ranked 10th.

So it wasn't bad. It was just when you didn't protect your goalie on the pass, you got beat. But I guess that coincides with Sammy not being able to go east to west. All right, I'm out. Steve Allicat. Thanks, Valley. Appreciate it. All right, boys.

Okay, does anybody know more than him? No. It's just such a niche position. It is. And to know it that thoroughly, you could ask about any goaltender, and he's got something. It is unbelievable. You know, we need to hand out awards on this show at the end of the year,

and he's, I mean. First ballot, real Kipperman Board Hall of Famer. He's on the left side of the mount rushmore boys anyways it gives you a a different perspective a different look of the leaf stuff of the decisions that are made and why they made and like i don't know i mean the leafs must have the same information i don't think so you don't think so i know goaltending stuff is very specific and i don't it's possible that they do i'm not saying it's 100 i don't think that they have that well if they had that the wall would have been playing right if yeah judging the quality of start to valley before game one. If Sheldon Keith talked to Valley before game one, might add a different

thought process on starting. For sure. Like, I'm sure he went to his coaching department, and they said, here's what we think, but I don't know that... I don't know. I could be totally wrong. Maybe I'm behind the times. God, that was good. Alright, Sammy, what do you got for us?

It's game time. Presented by Bet365. Visit the app for the latest odds and find out us it's game time presented by bet 365 visit the app latest odds and find out why it's never ordinary at bet 365 must be 19 plus ontario only please play responsibly since we've been talking more money has been coming in on the boston bruins because they've gone from plus one the leafs have gone from plus 130 when i first mentioned it to now all the way up to plus 140 the boston Bruins are minus 165 on home ice. That's the Austin Matthews effect. Yeah. So we're just starting to get in here.

Maybe he's not going to be playing tonight. And the money's swinging. So, yeah. It's still not great value, right? Like on the Leafs? Like plus 140? No, that's not not i wouldn't really recommend just stay away like there's no even the worst part about this for my gambling purposes

what i do in the playoffs yeah there's absolutely no opportunity for a happiness hedge tonight i wouldn't do it anyway because i don't really feel happiness anymore with the toronto maple east there's no way that this goes right for me. Sammy, snap out of it. Put the money into therapy. How about that? Yeah, honestly, great point. Please win. Yeah, I don't even know if I want them to win. Anyways, if you want the Boston Bruins, maybe minus a goal and a half, you think they're going to kill them.

That's plus 160. Maybe there's a little bit of value there, but yeah. Not a ton to go with that one. Your New York Islanders are massive underdogs tonight in uh carolina plus 225 to see your islanders gonna win minus 275 for the colorado for the carolina hurricanes the colorado avalanche minus 115 in winnipeg tonight winnipeg needs are showing tonight in a big way i mean that if you're connor hellebuck you listen to what valley said

he's like thank you yeah yeah they've been hanging me out to dry what are you down 15 screenshots nine east to west you know like a lot are going in but those are high numbers you can't have mccarr coming a thousand miles an hour through the neutral zone no winnipeg's whole thing is that they're going to be this great structured team that's tough to get through right good positional heavy it ain't been there so far and for our friends out west in vancouver um it is my they're minus 125 to move on to the second round tonight uh national predators plus 105 don't know which way you guys lean on that yeah it's in vancouver i feel like that was such a backbreaker for nashville that they may not win i also believe that she loves has that kind of like young confidence young and dumb just like yeah you're just like i'm the best goalie i've been the best goalie everywhere i've ever played it's my time to shine

i should have been the goalie before watch that's wrong with them that is the absolute mentality you want your young goalie to have yes They need to put it away, though. I wouldn't let Nashville hang around. I was disrespectful to Nashville several times this season. Based on just looking at their roster and being like, who do you like here? But, boy, that's a hockey team. Game time?

Yeah, that was game time. Presented by Bet365. Visit the app to find out why it's never ordinary. Bet365 must be 19 plus. Ontario only. Please play responsibly. Okay, we're going to take a quick break. When we come back, we've got some news and notes. Still have to talk a little bit to Stephen Stamkos

because that seemed to be a very hot-button topic. The moment the Tampa Bay Lightning were eliminated last night, where's his future? Where's Cooper's future? Where's Mike Sullivan's future? On this coach's carousel that ain't slowing down

anytime soon. So plenty to get into on that and more when we return to Real Kipper and Bourne. Get smarter when you listen to Hockey Talk, the Hockey PDO cast with Dmitry Filipovich. Subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. a little interesting uh twist to the tampa bay lightning being knocked out is the fact that

we've known all season long that stephen stamkos was playing the last year of his contract. Interesting to see him be the last one to leave. Right? Yeah. He took everybody, you know, as everybody came off the ice. He, as a captain, last guy. I'm not sure I felt the complete vibes of Patrice Bergeron last year. But it had some of the tones well if you're not sure you're coming back you know you're never going to be a lightning captain again take that last moment and

soak it in but he's going back to tampa bay he's like hey julian you see me so yeah watch this yeah look at me let me leave? Oh, wow. What did Cooper say? He's like post-game. You want to hear it? Yeah. Clip one on Stephen Stamkos from Cooper there, Derek. John, there's going to be a lot of conversation about the future of Stephen Stamkos.

What can you say about your captain and if you can imagine him not wearing a lightning? I don't know if there will be much conversation. I hope not anyway. He belongs here. We know it. He knows it. But, again, this is two seconds after a game,

but he and I have grown up together. He's a heck of a player, but he's also, you know, I mean, I suppose in control of his own destiny, but I, you know, he's, I don't know what's going to happen, but, I mean, he's, he feels like a bolt for life, but only he and Julian can answer that one. What a lawyer. Do you hear the lawyering in there? He's like, I don't want to say the wrong thing here.

No, I think he's far beyond that. I don't think he ever worries about saying the wrong thing. Well, I think he's saying, you know, like... He's saying it's not for me to decide. But I don't think he wants to give any... Right, but he doesn't want to give anyone the hope, and he's still welcoming steven back i think he's a bolt for life like i think that's all is cooper a bolt for life well just hold on for a second i want to stay on stamp coast before you start jumping into your leaf next head coach of the toronto maple leaf

who said the least you i know so he had he had a hell of a year and he was the best player for tampa in this first round at 40 he's not 35 yet i think he he turns 35 next year so what do you think's fair for a guy who's going to be 35 years old next year on a new deal i mean he's last three years are 42 30 440 goals that's not super easy to come by around the league but i gotta tell you you know that he's a kind of one-dimensional guy now right he shoots it in the net like you're not he's not killing penalties he's not he is what he is and i don't think the numbers are going to go up so you're anticipating getting a 30 goal guy for a few years i don't think the numbers are going to go up so you're anticipating getting a 30 goal guy for a few years i don't know what do you think it's six and a half

times three three from tampa is that is that that hard 20 million 21 million over three years you were talking a lower number at one point um again the the beauty of tampa florida vegas is that you could you could be a million and a half below other market prices and still come out on top yeah that's the beauty so six is like seven and a half in Toronto. The one thing I think about this is that Tampa Bay is a pretty ruthless and analytical organization, I think. And I think Stephen Stamko said six and a half million is worth it. You know, that's he's going to get 30 plus goals. Good leader.

Been through it. One cups. Going to have a statue there by the end of it. Probably like I think he's worth it for sure. But I do think the Lightning are up against it pretty good with their salary cap and so they more than any other team might have to grind the very guy you don't want to grind if he's willing to be ground that probably increases his odds of sticking around the grinding would have happened with that situation where he was in Toronto the Leafs

presented and by the rumors now they offered him Canadian Tire they offered him the whole chain I think they were throwing in Tim Hortons do I remember it? I've held a massive grudge against him ever since clearly I remember it well

so that was the time you were seriously considering leaving. This one, it's got to be a really embarrassing offer for him to leave. Yeah, he'll sit down with Breezeball and be like, I want to stay. You know, how do we make this work? And Breezeball will say, look at our cap. We want you to stay too. Let's talk about how we can make this work. Probably ends up.

Maybe it is five and a half. At the end of the day, he's. Maybe it's seven. He's, I don't know, career earnings. Got to be close to 80, 100 million. Remember the Sedins at the end just did yearly deals. They're like, yeah, we'll sort it out every year. We want to be here.

You want us here. So. I don't think he's, I don't think he's going anywhere. Yeah. Honestly. Career earnings are 99 and a half schmil. There you go. Man.

Yep. Quite good. That's so many. That's like two NBA seasons for a good player. With no state tax. Yeah, not bad. With no state tax. There simply is no world in which he does not play for the Lightning next year.

I'm just trying to imagine a team that he's... I mean, Nashville going to Godfather offer him? Like, I don't know. Here's the other thing you got to consider. Dallas, Utah? Maybe. They're still good. They're still like prime good.

But it's tough to see them getting better and they're not good enough. Well, then you're going to have to find, I think, another D. Sergeyev helps. Then there's Hedman. There's Hedman who needs a new contract. Correct me if I'm wrong, but is he eligible to sign a new deal

as early as July 1st, and then he's UFA at the end of next season? He's UFA at the end of next year, yep. Yeah, so that's an interesting one, too. Do you think maybe they have to pick one or the other do you think in that case you pick the six foot seven defenseman i don't know uh they're both legends yeah both future hall of famers and arguably one two and three and most popular in history it's extremely cool like i know the stanley cup he played all the way through is awesome but the one year that he was hurt and he played two minutes and 39 seconds

scored i know i wrote about the full 239 i broke down every second of his power his playoff run and yeah ting all right uh just before we move on from lightning oh i guess maybe we're gonna talk about cooper yeah i you know we've been talking a lot about the Leafs and guys missing games and all that. Sergeyev, he explodes his leg. When was that? It felt like it was last week. Yeah. I don't know.

Five months ago? No. Three? Less than that? Yeah, probably. It was in this year. It was in 24. And he comes back when their team is down 3-0.

January. Maybe that's why he comes back because it's like, well, you know, nothing's going to, whatever, like it just doesn't matter or whatever. Just coming back to February 7th. And I watch him in that game last night. This guy's diving in front of shots. He's involved in the game. He should have had a goal with the disallowed goal.

Like, it's just dogs. Yeah. You know, it's just a different thing. Are we going back to Toronto? No, no, no. Everything's about Toronto. Everything's just dogs. Yeah. You know? It's just a different thing. Are we going back to Toronto? No, no, no. Everything's about Toronto. Everything's going back. How can I not watch that?

And then see what I'm dealing with. And not, I mean, TJ Brochure. I get it. TJ Brochure with a broken hand, a sore back. Like, his back's all. I get it. Cooper. I get it.

Pablo Cooper. Okay. It's my understanding he's got one more year left on his deal, but sometimes that might not matter if you're not aligned in the same place. I hear that's probably being more questioned in Pittsburgh between Sullivan and Kyle Dubas, and I think Kyle Dubas came out publicly and said that no one's asked us for

permission on Sullivan, nor has permission been granted. I found that very interesting. Everything's great. He needed to come out and say that. Yeah. I love that. But those are the two names that if they have a change of heart or feel like their time is, you know, at an end in their respective cities,

they can make something happen. The thing is, like, my understanding about the way Sullivan likes to build a team and play is similar to Duvis's, right? Like speed and skill over Braun and, you know, bulk. Same thing, probably. But here's the difference, though, is that you're bottoming out now. You missed the playoffs. So it's not necessarily what do we need to build.

It's like how do we strip? Do you think they're going to? How do we strip down to rebuild? Do you think they're going to be worse? Like they're going to try to get bad, you think? I don't know if they're going to try to get bad. But you need to make big decisions on who stays and who goes. Like before you bring in and build, you got to strip something here.

They got to clean something up here. And I'm not sure if they're completely aligned yet on that. I think there's fireworks to come from Pittsburgh still. I don't know who that is. Is it Malkin? Is it Carlson? Is it Marner for Crosby? I am curious to see,

because I don't think they're just going to, all right, well, we'll try this again next year. Like, you just, you can't do that. No. Yeah. Remains to be seen. If you had to, out of the two guys, more likely to have a new destination next year

between Cooper and Mike Sullivan, it would probably be Mike Sullivan? Sullivan. Yeah, I next year between Cooper and Mike Sullivan. It would probably be Mike Sullivan. Sullivan. Yeah, I would say Mike Sullivan. Cooper, like, he's a really smart guy who's the coach of a team that's got good players in a tax-free state that's warm in the winter. You know, I don't see him being like,

I'm going to go take on... Toronto. San Jose, you know? San Jose's nice. If, in fact, i don't know sullivan finds his way on the out somewhere new jersey i don't know yeah and things don't go well for the toronto maple leafs in boston tonight you worked for sheldon and kyle dubas do you see any world where if there is an opening in pittsburgh that kyle dubas will go back to his old friend sheldon keith

reunited i don't think so i don't think so i don't think it's good for either of them to do that you know like i think it you would become known as a package deal right and like if it fails there you can't who's gonna hire one of them knowing it's two you know if you need a new coach is it i just feel like they need to create separation to say i can exist independently there's some like peter deborah and steve spot have been together for 20 years. Yeah, but that's an assistant coach, right? Like GM and coach, is it possible to have a 20-year career doing that? But listen, I'm not saying it's not possible.

They are super close. I get it. And I agree with you, by the way. It's not good for them. I do agree with you that, like, can you guys, like, you know, show everybody you're not joined at the hip? Right. I mean, if Sheldon Keyes is a free agent and they're looking for a coach

and Kyle Dubas is the general manager, what are the chances that you think he would really be like, maybe he's an assistant, maybe that's the way he gets back in, was an assistant with Pittsburgh. But to me, it's hard to picture it not happening yeah i mean maybe not the best sell to sid i don't know they went deep in junior they want to call their cup they you know took the the leafs to the second round that's special we'll see we'll see okay just to go back one more thought on the Tampa, Florida, and this is more a general topic,

but they were the two prime examples of goaltender interference last night. And it was interesting to watch Cooper handle the second one for me. By challenging it. By challenging it. By challenging it. And it was almost as if I watched it as if John Cooper was daring the NHL to take away another goal. That's the way I saw the second challenge. I saw it as we don't believe that we can generate more.

Like, it's so hard to score on this team that I would rather take my chances of having this go in our favor than say, all right, we're just gonna allow them to overturn it and try and score again. Like it's, it's hard to score. The difference between the two though, is that the first one was good goal on the ice and they overturned it.

And then the second one was bat, no goal on the ice and they tried to get it overturned. So there are two very different situations, but to me, they're both egregious. Like the first one was bat no goal on the ice and they tried to get it over turns they're two very different situations but to me they're both egregious like the first one he's getting held on to he gets backed into the into the goalie and then the the second one it's like are we playing hockey here goalies are supposed to be hockey players he's outside of the crease he throws his stick to sell it it's like what are we doing i i i didn't go yeah i didn't see it the way you saw it that i i said i mean i'm i'm the goalie crasher man i'm the first guy that wants to bother them

i've seen a youtube video about that now yeah didn't like the outcome of that one but yeah we'll leave that for another day but i'm all over like bothering. But what I saw last night, I favor the goalies. I favor the goalies. And it's... This is not a hockey one. For me, it always has to come down to, like, you are in the blue paint. That's undeniable. It's about how you got there and i saw both of them in scenarios

where they weren't pushed in i know he was being held but if you're being held you're being held away from the goalie how do you go into the blue paint like the sorelli spin i think he would have stayed above the goalie were it not for the d. However, the D has that ice, right? So to your point, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt there. The D has the ice, so he's allowed to be there. Cirelli's spin put himself into the blue paint. When you're into the blue paint, then it's an easy sell to go, I can't move, you're in my paint. And I think it was the glove that got got caught around sorelli's foot for just a split

second and then he drops the the stick classic goalie diver which totally sold it so that's why you get the waved call but it's it's all about how you got in there and if you got pushed in there then all bets are off but if you go in there on your own, then you totally run the risk of losing the goal. I thought Shirely just could have claimed he got bumped. I think if that goal is called a goal on the ice, it probably stands as a goal. I think it's that close. And can we really be honest here? Don't think it would have mattered.

No. No, they lose by. Florida is a wagon. And that Barkov looks so good. Oh, my God, he's good yeah they're licking their chops at the bruins leafs winner like it's the bruins he's he's he's uh patrice bergeron like he's that smart yeah yeah he's an all he's a player. He's the new Selke guy. Here's your Selke trophy.

Go get it. And not even close second for me. Yeah. Not here to argue that point. No, can't. He's so good. He's so good. And they're, even with Sam Bennett, like, Sam Bennett's an important player.

Now, you can win with injuries? Yes, you can. That's allowed. Yeah, you can. Oh, your captain can score. Do you? Jets. Yeah, you can. Oh, your captain can score. Do you... Jets. I do Jets.

But to me, Rangers-Florida is a tantalizing conference final. If the Leafs can't create miracles, that's what I'm hoping for, is Florida and the Rangers. That would be lovely. Yeah. Winnipeg Jets need Connor Hellebuck to not just be okay,

to not just be good. They need him to be exceptional. They're kind of built on that. Rick Bonas weighed in on that for tonight's matchup. This is a big game. You know it. Your players know it. How would you characterize the vibe that you're getting so far today?

Great. The guys are good. We just had a really good meeting with them. Talking to the guys a lot this morning. They all feel good. Listen, they know our best hockey. We haven't played it yet, and they know that. They know we need to play with more discipline so we stay out of the penalty box. They know we need to score some more goals. They understand, but there's not one guy in that room ready to call it a day and call the season over.

So I'm very confident that we're going to see the A game from everybody tonight. There's a great mood in the room. The practice was good, lots of energy. So we just hope that carries into the game tonight. Listen, between him and Sheldon Keefe, I get it. I get it i get it like you know maybe not the best time to dump on your players right now you gotta you're gonna you're gonna win you're gonna lose together yeah yeah no it's it is that time of year where you know it's not the coaching should be done by now and it's a matter of trusting your people and supporting them and getting them in the

right mind frame and the color Colorado team has looked very good. Don't love their chances against Hurricane Makar. No. He's a different animal. He is in the McDavid class for me. He's right there. Well, I've said this before, and it's a controversial opinion, and I'm not even sure I believe it,

but you offer me which one to start a team with. It's not... We're having a meeting. We're having a meeting. Definitely. That's exactly the point I want to make, is that it's not just like, with everyone else in the league, it's McDade. McCarr, I got to think about it. Toronto, done or they win tonight? God.

I mean, they lose tonight. Done. Done. Islanders, Hurricanes? Done. Done. High Isles? Done. Corned beef. Jets, Avalanche. Oh, my gosh. We got a lot of Burger King whoppers here. I want the opposite of all those results, by the way.

There's just grill marks everywhere right now. Done. Vancouver, go through. Yes. Van City. Enjoy your game tonight, and we're back tomorrow at 11 Eastern on The Real Kipper and Bourne Show.