Real Kyper & Bourne - First Round Projections with Shayna Goldman

Episode Date: April 3, 2025

The Athletic's Shayna Goldman joins Justin Bourne and Sam McKee to help break down the playoff picture with the regular season coming to a close (6:15). They discuss the Montreal Canadiens' surprising season, why the Lightning are poised for a deep run, how the Oilers match up against the Kings in a likely postseason rematch and the balance in other potential First Round matchups. Later, Senators writer Alex Adams (29:33) looks closer at a possible Battle of Ontario series in Round 1, Dylan Cozens' impact since the deadline, why David Perron is a playoff x-factor, the levels of trust in Linus Ullmark and why Travis Green deserves more love in the Jack Adams conversation.The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Sports & Media or any affiliates.

Welcome back to Real Born and McKee. We are without our boy Nick Kiprios today. You know, he's doing the April thing that people do and go somewhere where it's warmer than Toronto. Although, it's cooking here. It's so funny when it's like this weather. You were so gun shy with the weatherman. Like I wore a jacket and like a long sleeve that I'm wearing right now.

Those pants with the zippable. But I just, I'm like, I'm not, it was snowing and then freezing raining all day yesterday. There's no way it's, and then I was walking. I am actually sweating. Dude, we had snow, rain, hail, thunder, lightning, sun, and fog in the last 24 hours. And then none of that has made up.

That has been a- Sounds like a soul band in the 70s. It's been viral. Basically. You know, we're gonna get to chatting with a couple of people here. First off, this hour of Kipper and Boran brought to you by Bet 365.

We always appreciate them. We're gonna to talk with Shana Goldman, national hockey writer for the athletic in a couple minutes here looking forward to that. We're going to get to Alex Adams of the sports net. Yes. Ottawa senators writer, which is great. Self-serving. Yeah, I'm like, are sense friends afraid to? Yeah, they afraid to. They're not afraid. They're excited. but so let's talk a little bit about last night I think before we give OV his flowers I just wanted to you know say rest in peace the Vancouver Canucks yeah it really a tough wish I could say good year yeah tough season but got that lost last night

rancid you know they they were brutal at home all year Yeah costume it really really cost them. They were brutal all year. It was a thing I don't know what happened to them there, but they just were no good At Rogers Arena, right? Sure. It feels like it's a sun, right? Yeah Seven games left. They have 81 points. So 14 points could take them to 95 The best thing you get to is 95 points both, Minnesota and st. Louis have 89 and the two wild card spots with six games left So you got to think they're gonna they're gonna get there. It's not it's not over over but It's pretty over. So too bad about that. So we could talk about Ovi a little bit. Yeah here but

We have on the network tonight Nationally Habs hosting the Boston Bruins. Mmm, and it's a massive games for the game for the Montreal Canadians We talked to a little bit about that with Shayna, but have you looked at the Eastern Conference standings recently? You know, I have the Boston Bruins are in last place. They've lost nine in a row I believe if not ten. Well it's six technically on... They got some overtime loss or something. It says lost six on here but every time I look at them they are losing. I can't imagine, I can't imagine the expectations going into a season where at the start of the season, Justin,

they were the Boston Bruins. They signed players, big players, big deals. They were the Boston Bruins. They had all their players and like, you know, Marchand was there and Carlo and you know, they got Zadorov and Lindholm and Pastrnak. It's like, that is the Boston Bruins. A team that you would have said you're worried

for the Leafs to face. For sure. And I think we definitely thought that there was gonna be a fall off here and that they were gonna go downhill but it has been a Remarkable fall off for them and they traded everybody understand it but like no coil anymore I I think you know you could convince yourself that they're the Bruins they have cab space They could maybe turn this around quickly like some other teams have but god you look down that lineup Outside a Pasternak. It's lean brother. You know they so it is nine a row. They lost one in OT. Okay the misleading it's almost like

They they they weren't good enough to win the cup this year But I don't know that they needed to give up to the degree they gave up. Like Brandon Carlo that they traded to the Leafs. Yeah. He's a nice hockey player. He's fine. He's 29 or you know. I think even a little bit younger than that.

He had three years or two years left in his contract after this one. I just, I. Did you need to. Go ahead. Extreme Jerry Seinfeld gif here, that's a shame. Like I, you know, I'm really upset to see the Boston Bruins finally

But but the but is they have been good for this long And they had a half a year where they were right in there and it wasn't terrible They pulled the bottom out and have tanked they could get a top five pick now They could be do the most Bruins II thing ever and not bottom out entirely have half of the half a bad season Go the top five this this next year supposed to be great Yeah, you know they could grab a really good player come back with Pasternak and Lindholm and Zdorov and you know still got players You know yeah, yeah, yeah, Macka boys way, man. Yeah, yeah, listen you're maybe you're right I'm not saying they're gonna be good good, but I think my overall point here looking at it is I am stunned

Yeah at this development like I heard a head of the bar the Buffalo Sabres. No, they're not. I'm sorry They're behind the Buffalo Sabres. Yes. Yes. Yes They are in the last place in the like they are the last place outside of the playoffs. Yes, it's crazy It is crazy truly remarkable at the other end of the standings, Ovi scores his 890 second goal to get within two to tie, three to pass Wayne Gretzky now, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, 892. Yeah. So he needs two to tie, three to pass, like he said.

So they got the full circus going now. Like we've sent Sean Reynolds to follow them. Betman's there. Gretzky's there. For sure. It's 10 Reynolds, it's officially a circus. Yeah, I'm really, I've talked about this before, I'll talk about it again. This was one of the most unbreakable record in sports to me. I wouldn't, you know, you talk about all the big numbers in all of sports and it's just this is one that I never thought I would live to see live to see the day that we actually see somebody break it and

It's it's happening here. Like it is it is absolutely inevitable. So it is coming. All right We're joined by Shana Goldman the national hockey writer from the athletic and the too many men podcast Shana. How are you? Thanks for joining us. Hey, I are you? Thanks for joining us. I am great. Thanks for having me. Absolutely. We were just discussing all the OV excitement and the chase for Azilian goals. Are you excited about the chase for Gretzky's record?

Yeah, I am. I've been looking at Ovechkin's goal total over the last couple of seasons pretty closely. So it's been fun to see where his game has changed, where it hasn't. You know, we all think of him from that power play spot, you know, with the one timer, but it's nice to see the versatility he still has in his game. So yeah, I think it's great. Yeah, no, it's been exciting in the sports center as excited about it too. Wanted to ask you a couple questions.

You know, we're in our Canadian national hour here. So like to go across Canada and talk about some of those teams. You recently wrote an article on the Montreal Canadians and basically said, don't worry about the underlying numbers. Let's be excited about where they're at in their developmental curve. So you're, you're feeling good about the direction of that team, are you? Yeah, absolutely. Because I don't think a lot of us expected them to be here, right? This is progress. Like, it looked like when you went into the season, if you go back to our previews at the beginning of the year, if I remember correctly, our best case scenario was that the Young

Guns progress and they get another top five pick. Okay, well, they've had a lot of top five picks. They've gotten a lot of draft capital over the years, and at a certain point you want to see it come to fruition. You want to see them start playing meaningful games, they are they're striving towards something towards the postseason so yes they're red flags but some of them are better than they were in the beginning of the year i think they look a lot better out of the four nations break and while there's definite defensive flaws you're seeing some exciting offense and you're seeing it from important

players this isn't you know veterans dragging this team along this is Lane Hudson doing amazing things and getting a lot better defensively and Nick Suzuki leading away so I think it's a good thing for them. Yeah I think if you're a Habs fan you're not gonna look at any end underlying number about anything at this moment like this is just pure gravy because I mean even for the job that Marty St. Louise done for this team I mean they had a was a long losing streak that they had this year. There was moments of this season where they were not a factor that they were out of the

playoffs. I remember that Leafs game on the Saturday night there where they went up three and then they seven unanswered the Leafs scored against them and it was kind of heading in the wrong direction. You got to give Marty St. Louise as a rookie ish pretty new ish coach here the turnaround for them to have these young guys playing Marty St. Louis deserves a ton of credit Yeah, and he's one of the longest tenured coaches in the NHL Number five I think on the list I'd have to double-check that but you're right

I mean look just heading into the four nations break if I remember correctly they were two seven and one in their last Yeah, he's heading into that like that is pretty bad It's been a roller coaster season and even within this, you know, last stretch since Four Nations, there have been steps back. It wasn't just, oh, the third period comeback fell short against Colorado, the hottest team in the league at the time. This was getting crushed by the Blues and the Flyers. Like, they really struggled for a minute there. But the resilience to do it against Panthers, who I know aren't at their best, but at the end of the day are still the reigning champs. That is something. Yeah. What do you think the ceiling for Hudson is? Cause to me watching them, that's the made,

the biggest change is that he's like, he's a dude now. Yeah, right. He looks so much better defensively. I think a big part of his getting them away from David Savard has been everything and more for his game. And you know, sure, he's not playing top competition that often there are stretches in games that he is. That's only natural.

You can't control the matchups perfectly. And he does have the support of the best players on the team naturally you know the best offensive defenseman is going to play with Nick Suzuki a ton and that's the reason why you know his stretch passes and his own entries are turning into actual you know scoring but for me the ceiling is super high because yes he's an undersized defenseman but he's very smart about it His anticipation and his poise with the puck are really important. I think we're seeing this even more

in these high pressure games. So I think you could see him turn into this true number one defenseman. And now that the defensive side of his game is coming along, if I remember right, it's before four nations and after four nations, his expected goal rate is down by a goal. That is a massive turnaround for him.

So if that can keep trending up, then the ceiling is super high for him to be their first pair of defensemen for years to come. Are you gonna move on the haps? Yeah. So the team that I keep looking at, when you know you start thinking in the playoffs about cup contenders and sort of sneaky cup contenders

and finding value, the team that I keep looking at that I don't feel like is getting discussed enough discussion as an Actual Stanley Cup contenders the Tampa Bay Lightning They've just kind of been cruising along because everybody expects them to be good But there's their second in the in the Atlantic Division and I think they're a plus 72 or a plus 73 gold differential They have a really easy schedule down the stretch here a chance for them to get hot and potentially even win the division with the Leafs and Panthers fighting there. And it feels like a whole new era almost.

Like Kucherov's still there, I understand that. And they're still the headmans of the world. But they've kind of turned this over where now it's Hagel that's contributing, right? Where he's one of their better guys. And they bring in York Stray and they bring in Gord, who is an old new guy. But it just feels like they've kind of reinvented themselves. You know, Gentzel. And I don't know if they get talked enough about as a real Stanley Cup contender.

They're fantastic. They absolutely do not get talked about enough. They were my pick from the beginning of the year. I was betting on a Colorado Tampa Bay final and after their deadlines, I feel so much better about them. To me, Tampa Bay's strength is their elite core, right? And they found a way to make sure that they're gonna be at that level again They didn't keep Stephen Stamkos

Which was a huge decision and went for Jake Gensel who helped revitalize That top six a lot and just had a different kind of threat who has a little bit more dimension bringing back Ryan McDonough allows Victor Headman to be Victor Headman instead of burying him in minutes with nobody around him So they had the pieces in place. You knew they had to do something at the deadline, and they did it. Bjorkstrand is such an underrated piece. I don't think he gets the hype that he deserves, and maybe it's a result of playing in Seattle and Columbus and not in a bigger market,

and that he doesn't have the flashiest of games, but he's a great shoot first winger. He's great on both ends of the ice, and Jani Gord is someone that's so tough to match up against there's so much versatility in this lineup And I'm excited to see the different combinations You know already they've been mixing and matching a lot But they have a really deep group because Hagel and Sorrelli can shoulder so much on that second line That they could go in any which direction I think if they hit a wall the coaching and the veterans kind of know how to turn it up when it matters most and now They have options so it's not just gonna be the same still lineup if it ends up being Florida and Tampa in the first round like that is a

Firework that is a disappointed somebody well those two teams the way they've like added and they built their teams out It's I mean, it's a it's a detriment of the playoff format those two teams the first round feels really not fair Well, you know, I'm looking at it now Chana and like they have five of their final seven games against non-playoff teams Tampa could still win the division and you know, that would be bad news for your Leafs But I did want to ask you about the Leafs and their potential first-round matchup as of today It would be the Ottawa Senators. Presumably they would have Brady Kachuk back. They would have a lot of I don't know good vibes in Ottawa What is the upset potential for the Ottawa Senators against the Toronto Maple Leafs and go easy on Sam?

Oh my god, that is a trap series On paper the Maple Leafs should be the better team, right? Because they have the super elite talent John Tavares is playing well to give them the supporting talent they need same with Maddie Nyes They have two capable goaltenders and the defense is good They've worked very hard to play playoff style hockey which for some reason they felt they needed to lean into they did right? This team should be built to make it into round two and maybe further But for some reason I'm giving this like a nine out of ten that the senators are going to I can't I'm upset. I can't.

I'm sorry. I every year I'm sitting here clamoring for the Leafs and that I have the passion. I'm so excited. I love watching them play. And this year they've destroyed it for me. And I just feel like I can see that potential of them of the easiest opponent. Right. The senators aren't the hottest team coming into the postseason. It's not like it's the St. Louis Blues that I just see that it should be a cakewalk and it won't be.

I have a doctorate in passion pain here. Like I know everything there is to know about this and you're right. I can't sit here and be like, no, how could you say that? It's you've been burned literally eight times. How could you go back to the oven and put your hand on it again? Like at some point you have to flip it over But yeah, I think the sends are a great story and it'll be really really great to sort of revitalize that rivalry that I mean all I really have is memories as a leaf fan is them beating them when I was like in high school and Like that's sadly enough like the crowning moments of my fandom 20 years ago, but you can see it You can see it and everybody can see it.

And maybe that for once will help the least because they don't actually expect it to happen. I don't know, but I'm not holding out hope. I'm really not. That's how broken I am. Great. Now I'm sad. In terms of the other series that, you know, where we have, we know who's

going up against one of the only ones we really know is Carolina, New Jersey. The other one, sorry, Edmonton and LA, looks likely. We'll stick to Canada if we could and go with the Edmonton one. How do you feel about them this playoff year compared to where they were at last season? I'm so torn on this. I picked the Kings to win the first year. They went head to head and I was wrong. And the second year I said, okay, I'm going to go with it. And I was wrong again.

But last year I was like, you know what, this Kings team, I can't trust you. And I kind of feel the same way going into this year. And it's not a slight at the Kings, right? Like they are very, very good team. They're outstanding on home ice. And if they can have that advantage, that's going to help them out a lot because they have three lines that could play the matchup game. They have two pairs that they can trust too in tough minutes. And the goal-tending from Darcy Kemper has been really great. So they have a little bit of everything. And yet I just don't see them having a counter for Leandre Isidle and Connor McDavid. And that's what it comes down to sometimes. And Kevin Fiala finding his game and playing

like a superstar again, that's going to help. And Kuzmenko, I think, was a good fit for them too. But I wish that the Kings did a little bit more to make this a little bit more of an interesting series. Because as flawed as this Oilers team is, and they are, I still look at it and go, I think they have this one, even with the goaltending question marks. And they are certainly a ton in Edmonton.

And my bigger question is, who's going to score goals alongside McDavid and Dry-Seidel because Hyman and Eugene Hopkins, they start to pick up the pace and then they kind of start drying out again. And Arvidsson hasn't worked out as well as I think we all expected. And every move was really good on paper. It just hasn't worked out. I think they needed to do something a little bit more than just adding Trent Frederick upfront.

And I think having Jake Wallman is going to add a spark from the back end and maybe that helps get those third and fourth lines going a little bit more if he ends up playing on the third pair in the postseason. But it's a flawed team. So can they get past the Kings? Probably. Can they get past anybody else? That's where I have the question. Yeah. A lot rides on the health of guys coming back and everyone kind of being ready to go at the right time. I did want to follow up Sam had mentioned on the health of guys coming back and everyone kind of you know being ready to go at the right time I did want to follow up Sam had mentioned before the likelihood of You know Tampa Bay, Florida and even this series the way we kind of lose great teams early in the postseason

I've seen you right before on what what other options could be and do you have any ways that we can avoid? Losing such great teams early in the postseason Yeah, keep it simple one to eight. Yeah, that's it. You want to reward division winners and make them one and two. I'm all for it. I think it's better than years past when it was three divisions going into it that, you know, I remember years, I think it was the Florida Panthers made it and they were the third place team in like 2010 and they were so much worse than fourth, fifth and sixth and it was just like the design of it. But when we compare that to what we have now, I mean, that seems like small peanuts,

but I would go one to eight, you know, and keep it simple. I think if you want to take it a step further, go for the three, two, one point system. So every point is a little bit more meaningful, and maybe the standings of one to eight are better reflecting the actual strengths of the teams. And, you know, if you do the math right now, which I did, what was that, a week ago, two weeks ago,

it's minor changes. The Rangers jump over the Canadians because they have more regulation wins and things like that they're gonna get rewarded for. It's not massive differences, but we don't know how different it would be with that system in place. Just like we see in the PWHL

and we saw it in Four Nations, if you know you need those three points, you're gonna be playing the game differently and taking more risks. Maybe you're pulling a goalie with eight minutes to go Maybe you know you just need to absolutely go for it to get that third point versus just playing for overtime So things could shake out a little bit differently have that pair with the one to eight that is perfection But that is way too radical of a change for this league. I do think that The three point two point one point thing is the most obvious thing.

It's comically obvious, actually. But that makes it seem that they love this parody. They do. They like the look of the congested standing. So fans go, ah, we're only a few points back. Because if a team that's really good is pushing for three points against a team that's fighting for a playoff spot, there's going to be some more lopsided results. You watch the end of a lot of these games where both teams

need points, especially if it's an out of hand on no one's shooting guys behind the net, the candle in like they're killing the clock. So they like this, unfortunately. And I think it's just one we have to live with. But do you guys remember what the real impetus was to go to the division thing? Was it like a rivalry thing rivalries was the idea?

Yeah, you'd get yeah guaranteed it in round one now right because you're guaranteed staying in division in at least two series and then you have a good chance of It for those third and fourth series per conference and then in theory you have to go through your own division Then your own conference to be able to go through the entire league and on paper sure that's great wonderful But how electric would it be if Dallas and Colorado had to go through each other to make it to the Stanley Cup final to be the true best of the West? That is what we're all looking for. And I feel like now you're getting those early series. Sometimes the playoffs fizzle out a little earlier than they should. Round one is electric. We know that. It's always going to be,

no matter what. It doesn't matter what the schedule is, who's playing up against each other, but you don't want it that round two, round three don't have that same energy, right? And I think that they're kind of getting away from that. Sure. You're gonna get some you know Dallas against Vegas, that's great Pacific versus Central amazing. Give me it every year But you don't have that same energy for every matchup So we love our favorite segment on the show called Jet's Talk. Jet's Talk. Jet's Talk. Because they're so good and they just win every night so we feel like we barely talk

about them so we say Jet's Talk and then say nice things. So there's just never, there's no- They're just there, they're good. Again, another win. But having said that, I gotta tell you, there's a lot, probably a ton of fans and a ton of people within the organization in Winnipeg that are really hoping that the Minnesota Wild fall behind the St. Louis Blues because the way the St. Louis Blues are playing right now and you know they've had a soft schedule here which has been a big contributing factor

through their long winning streak but that to me is not a enjoyable first round matchup for a team that has some scars in the playoffs and has some first round stuff They go to make some of the Leafs for the for the first round problems and boy have I heard it But the Jets aren't exactly a playoff dominant team either having the hottest team the league coming in there I don't think that feels like a great matchup for the Jets in the first round No, no It doesn't the perfect world for the Jets is that the stars stop creeping up behind them because I cannot believe that it is only a four-point gap right now crazy stars have a game in hand and

So they get to stay first place because they should not want to play Colorado in round one Like get through them in round two and then you can feel better But I think you need to get one round under your belt before that can happen And yeah, you definitely want to play the Minnesota Wild guess they're gonna have Kaprizov back But that wild team is a lot different than the St. Louis Blues, who are firing on all cylinders right now. You look at their numbers since four nations, and the Jets and the Blues are two of the best five-on-five teams in the league. And yes, the Blues have had the benefit of their schedule, and they are very lucky,

but they are not lucky to be good. This is a good team that happens to be benefiting from a high shooting percentage and really good goal-tending. But the play below the surface is pretty sustainable that you see that they are controlling play in their minutes. And the most impressive of it all is the defensive effort that they've had. Their rush defense is so much better. They don't even have Colton Perico who goes up against top competition for them. And they're still playing at this level. You get him him back that's another threat for them so I wouldn't want them if I were Winnipeg especially looking at it you know you look at what are the Jets issues and there are guys that I think have to step up in the postseason Nikolai Ehlers stands out as one of them to me at this point but Connor Hellenbeck I think showed a four nations the

pressure is not the problem it's that this team runs him into the ground before the postseason even starts and with the stars being so close to them in the standings I don't see him getting much rest between now and the playoffs. Oh yeah you're rolling them out by the way. We had that conversation recently about how much he plays and you look at his game logs with the past five years. Oh it's like Luongo. It is jarring by the way how close Dallas is to them and by the way tonight Winnipeg has Vegas and Dallas has Nashville. Okay. So this could be a two-point with a game in hand for Dallas situation if things go weird. Last one for you Shana, we

appreciate your time is I believe you live in New York, do you not? Yes. And you follow the Rangers fairly closely? Yes. Are they going to get in the playoffs? Are they going to break Canadians hearts? I don't think so. If you go by priors, right, and go by the numbers and go by the models, the Rangers have a good chance because of those priors. They have the elite talent, the proven elite talent, the Shostarkins, the Panerans, the Foxes of the world, that's going to help their numbers in this because we're not just basing everything on just this season, right? You need a bigger picture than that even though you're gonna like

weigh this season and the recency a little bit more But this team just can't get out of their own way. It is miserable to watch So for all hockey fans, not just Canadians, they need to not make the postseason so round one can be a little bit more enjoyable We had it last year with the Capitals Rangers. It was not a good series. We don't need that again It would be much more interesting if Columbus or Montreal could do it Yeah, I can't imagine the difference in vibes between the Habs first round series Oh, yeah Rangers first round series like a bunch of guys who have been there a bunch of times and hat no no No, no, no, they have no chance versus like a bunch of young upstarts. It'd be way better But yeah, they are a tough watch the Rangers right now. They are a tough watch. It has been lean. All right

Well, hopefully they don't get in and the Montreal canadens do. Thanks for all your analysis today, Shana. We really appreciate it. Thanks for having me. All right. That's Shana Goldman, a national hockey writer with The Athletic and the Too Many Men podcast. Got that great stuff there. It is a wake up call looking at the standings, how close the stars are. Stars are so good. What kind of run have they been on?

I feel like the Jets had a monster lead. I think they've won six or seven in a row. Yeah, they've just been really, really really good and that's without Heisken. Yeah, that's without Heisken and obviously since they've had Ranton and they've done a bunch of winning. Yeah, the Jets, you know, Jets haven't been bad man. They won three of their last four. Yeah, but yeah Dallas rising at an alarming rate. Look at the top three in that state in that division plus 80 gold differential for the Winnipeg Jets plus 65 gold differential for the Dallas Stars plus 41 gold differential for the Colorado Avalanche That is a bit of a beast of a division plus the two wild card teams are Minnesota and st. Louis. Yeah central is no joke

Yeah, blackhawks are close We're Where do you start? Like you're the worst team in the league, you're the best division anyways. But I will say you mentioned some goal differential stuff, so I was just checking it out. The Lightning are twice as good as Florida and Toronto

in division, they're way up there. They terrify me. Plus 72, Panthers plus 33. You know, you look at the East this year. Leafs plus 24 if you're curious, go ahead go ahead Sorry, no you look at the East this year The best team is the Capitals and we've had lots of conversations with the Capitals is it well I mean there a according to the NHL comm standings that I am looking at right this moment They are the top team in the East just with a brutal loss last night to the to the Canes

Some sore loser ism to which I don't hate as you know, but I had someone send me some stuff today some You know facts data that stuff capitals are yeah, that's so that my point is I Mean if you're a leaf fan, mm-hmm. It looks it looks a lot more palatable that it has in years past But if you're up a lightning fan, fan right I think you could make a real case they could be one of the favorites for sure the thing I was looking at was expected goals for and against differential since four nations face-off interesting capitals are like last really yeah they're getting filled in huh Vegas st. Louis Winnipeg leaves are sixth which is encouraging so there you go something good um yeah all right it's game time presented by bet three six five visit the app for latest odds and find out why it's never ordinary bet three six

Five that's a nineteen plus on terror only Please play responsibly. So like I mentioned on the network tonight nationally the Montreal Canadian Canadians are hosting the putrid Boston Bruins stink And if I told you in September that on April 3rd, the Montreal Canadiens would be minus 210 favorites against the Boston Bruins. Oh my God. You probably would have looked at me a little funny.

Really? Yeah, so that to me is a huge number. I would stay away from it. The Boston Bruins stink, but they're plus 175 on the other side of the money line. He's still got Swainman, don't they? I know he's been terrible, but he's been awful since he got his money I love the guy but he's meaningful game here too as well for the Ottawa Senators and Tampa Bay Lightning if you're a leaf fan

The Ottawa Senators are hosting the Tampa Bay Lightning plus 125 on the money line for the Ottawa Senators minus 150 for the Lightning I think the Leafs are at E fans are actually cheering for the Sens in that one which they may not be doing in a in three weeks time but a big one there for the Eastern Conference playoff standings and later on like you said the Winnipeg Jets are in Vegas taking on the Las Vegas Golden Knights. Huge game for the Jets here. Let me guess the line. Let me guess the line. Yes guess it. At VGK Vegas is going to be favored minus 130. Minus 155 on the money line for the Vegas Gold Knights plus 130 for the Jets a rare opportunity to get the Jets at plus money That's they're in tough clearly against the Vegas Gold Knights, but that's a pretty good number

The last one I'll bring up the Edmonton winners are in San Jose to take on the Sharks minus 300 on the money line All right And that was game time presented by bet three six five visit the app for latest odds and find out why is never ordinary I bet three six five must be nineteen plus until only please play responsibly wonderful stuff When we come back we're gonna talk with Alex Adams Ottawa Center's writer for us and the behind the play podcast Really knows the sins in and out and if you're a Leafs fan, you can sort of Figure out what could potentially be a renewed battle of Ontario. So looking forward to hearing from him and we will do that after this break.

Covering the Blue Jays from an analytical perspective. Jays Talk Plus with Blake Murphy. Be sure to subscribe and download Jays Talk on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Real Born and McKee. We are going to be joined now by Alex Adams of Sportsnet, our very own Ottawa Senators writer behind the play podcast. Alex, how you doing today, pal? Great guys. Thanks so much for having me on. Yeah we appreciate your time. This

is actually at a perfect time for us because we need to wrap our heads around doing the Leafs Hour. Just what the Ottawa Senators are so give us the synopsis not of the whole season maybe but what are the sins right now? Just how dangerous is this hockey team? I think they're a really dangerous hockey team, obviously. If Brady Kachuk, I think we'll be back shortly. But you have Brady Kachuk, Tim Stutzel, you have Jake Sanderson, who really in the second half of this season has really taken a huge step.

He just hit 50 points and he's an unbelievable defensive defenseman. You have Linus Almark, who finally saved the goalie problems in Ottawa that, you know, going from Matt Murray, Corpus Aulog, and everyone else. So I think this team's really good. There's obviously different, you know, some weaknesses. I think their third pairing could definitely be improved and is a sore spot. I think there, you know, there's questions in how much they can generate at five on five and their PK is kind of struggled So there are areas where this team hasn't you know, probably could definitely improve upon

But I think you know right now they would play the least and I think they'd be a really tough test for them And I know Sam McKee, you know had the the viral video that went went big here in Ottawa So a lot of sense fans loved that scene, you know fans seen the fear How big of a thing was that? I muted it like I saw it as a gold you I get that we're done with that one forever Didn't happen. So the question is is The fear factor from Lee fans and I don't think it's as much of a fear of the I think it's a fear of anyone Really when it comes down to the playoff time.

But are the stakes there too for Sens fans? This is what I wanna know. Like Sens fans in your life, are they as afraid of losing to the Leafs as the Leaf fans are of losing to the Sens? I think they are to some degree. I think another thing that Sens fans have told me a lot just with the potential looming of the Battle of Ontario

and the playoffs is like seeing like the Sens arena all with blue jerseys and Leafs fans. I think Sens fans would really not like that. I think that's something that would really get under their gears. And then if you lose to Leafs, then it's like a double whammy. So I think for the Senators, it is kind of okay, just get in it will be a fun ride But I think if they were to lose to Toronto it would have this really sour taste that they were to lose against Tampa Bay or Florida I just don't think it would be the same. So what's up with Kachak? Cuz I saw it. It's he's missed a couple here He's not gonna play tonight. I don't think against Tampa like what's what's the what's the latest with Kachak? So Travis Green studies day to day. He got hit by Ryan Graves in the second period

against Pittsburgh on the weekend, and he went down immediately and left the ice. He did return for the rest of that game, and he had been obviously dealing with a hip injury from four nations as well. So it's kind of on, you can't really have a good read in terms of how close he is, but he is their same day to day.

I don't know if that's playoffs speak for day to day. But I- Don't say day to day in this city. Yeah. Storrs was day to day and then missed six months. Yeah. So. But I would say that I'd be shocked

if he wasn't back in the next couple of games or so. I think the fact that this team also has a bit of a lead, although it is going down after you lose to Buffalo twice in a week. I think that if this was a playoff game, I believe Brady Kitschrump would likely play, but right now they have a little bit of breathing room and I think they're just being cautious and hopefully he's back soon. But I don't think it's anything major, at least, you know, I've seen him around the rink He's doesn't have a sling. He doesn't have anything He's wearing anything or it doesn't seem like a big issue at least for now

All right, we're talking with Alex Adams of sports net here in the behind the play podcast Give us your assessment. How are the returns on the Norris for Dylan cousin swap so far? I think it's been a home run. I think the difference between, and it's not a slight to Josh Norris, he's very much a straight line player. He's a finisher. I think ideally, honestly, in a perfect world, he's probably a really good winger rather than a center. Very good defensive player, but the problem with this team was that 5 on 5, they generated

very few opportunities. They weren't scoring at 5 on 5 and Dylan Cousins is a much better playmaker he's big he goes to the net which Norris is much more of a perimeter player and him and Batherson and and David Perron have just been unbelievable together scoring at will it seems their underlines are great too so they before the trade Ottawa really had one line with Tim Stutza and Brady Kachuk, and now they have two lines that can really create, and then obviously you have Shane Pinto on the third line. So it really insulated, I think, Stutza,

where he can have an off night and the team can score and keep winning. So I think he's been a perfect fit. I do wish Josh Norr is nothing but the best. It's gonna be interesting how he deals in Buffalo. He's still a really good player, really good defensively. I think he's probably better than Cousins in that regard. But I think Cousins, just the ability to play make has been way better.

There's a goal he set up with Batherson on the weekend against Columbus. And Cousins backpedaled on the blue line created space shot it at the net and then Batherson potted at home and I that's just not a play Josh Norris makes he probably shoots at the net or tries to find someone down low rather than kind of creating space for him so so that's kind of differentiators between the two and availability too right like it's the classic saying that availability is the best ability and I mean,

Josh Norris has had moments over his career where he's been a really good NHL-er, but I mean, you gotta feel for him. I mean, there's that clip floating around of Kevin Adams, we were talking about it the other day where he's, oh, we checked him out, he's good, no problems here, and then it's like another new injury. There's certain guys, Buffalo seems to find him. Just there's certain guys Buffalo seems to find them they do they really do see to find them

So I often when you're going into a playoff series I look at the other lineup and I say who is the guy that the opposing fan base is gonna be swearing about the most of that and You look down the lineup for the Ottawa Senators and you know, Brady Kachuk is clearly the power ranking It's not he's not even posted. He's number one But everyone's you know, you can talk about Ridley Greg and you know He's did the slap shot and the cross check and all that but to me the sneaky one is David Perron David Perron has made a career of being really really good in the playoffs and really really annoying with that hint advisor

He's just flying around out there in your shame light I I gotta tell you Lee fans if you're going in the in the Battle of Ontario David Perron is gonna come out not popular to the city of Toronto. I'm telling you right now Yeah, I mean he's been unbelievable, especially with with cousins and bathers and it's interesting, like, he was, you know, for people that don't know, his daughter was sick, and so he missed the beginning of training camp and then the season, and then he came back in November, got hurt immediately, so it was a very stop and start year for him, and then basically since, you know,

the start of March, he's just been on the roll. I think he has like 10 points in his last 15 games. And I think, as you mentioned, Ottawa, I think is probably positioned as better as a playoff team in many ways than a regular season team. Like you look at Ridley Gregg, you look at Brady Kachuk, you look at David Perron, like they have a lot of guys that are kind of snarly in your face, get underneath your skin. And so I think, you know, they're not the fastest team, but when the game slows down in the playoffs, you can hold on to guys more. I think this team will really thrive.

And I think whatever the case may be, to just to watch like the top three lines, you have Kachuk on the first line, Perron on the second, and then Ridley Greig on the third. Like that's not a lot of fun for opponents There's there's so what you're telling me is there's always gonna be an a hole on the ice For three quarters of the game you're gonna have somebody sticking your hook in your slash, but this is that's like, you know Forwards right they've got the guys up front that kind of will get under your skin and be at the net front How are they able to handle? Physicality in the back end?

Because the two best D that you have there in Sanderson and Chabot are not necessarily heavy guys, and they do play the most minutes if I'm not mistaken. How are they built to handle playoff style hockey? I think in a lot of ways I wrote a story about Nick Jensen. I think Chabot and Jensen's effectiveness in the playoffs will really be a huge determining factor, I think, in terms of the success of the Senators. Jensen has been routinely missing practices,

and he's been a really good fiddle for Shabbat, just bringing stability, and Shabbat's thrived. His defensive game has really improved, but since the new year, they've taken a step back, and I think they're not overly physical. I think Sanderson and Zub are just really good at puck retrievals getting the puck out of their own zone so I don't think that will be as much of a problem but I think if Shabbat and Jensen continue can play at a good level and kind of create a bit more offense not get

scored on too much I think this team can be in a really good position, but their bottom pair is really, it's two just hulking six foot five guys. So maybe not as good on the puck, but they're definitely ready for the playoffs in terms of Tyler Clevin and Nicholas Madden-Palost. So I really think that second pair will be a really key factor for the team heading into the playoffs.

So the All-Mark question to me is one for the Senators. And you know, you listen to the show, you've heard Steve Alliquette talking about Doctor Season Off and he's had his ups and downs over this season where he's kind of disappeared for a while, then not playing for a ton and then going right away to the Four Nations. I don't even know if that was a thing in Ottawa,

but we talked about that on the show like it was a thing. But it really it really does feel like he's kind of, you know, figured it out over the last little while where he's just playing. He's available. He's in that he's been good. Where's the trust level with sends fans and all marketing into the playoffs? I think that the fact of the matter, as I mentioned before, the bar was set very, very low. It's true. They had like seven good different goalies played two years ago for them.

So it's a good point. I think there is a pretty good level of trust. I don't think that's the Sens fans are going into the playoffs, presuming to get in and thinking, oh my God, like, is Almer going to race his game up, you know, for the playoffs? Although he has struggled in Boston, if you look at his numbers in the playoffs, although he has struggled in Boston if you look at his numbers in the playoffs. So I think, you know, since the four nations, as you mentioned, his numbers aren't that sparkling.

He's had a couple of games. People might remember the one against Detroit where he had 48 saves, but otherwise he's been quite pedestrian against Buffalo. He gave in a couple of squeakers. So I think he's been very hit or miss this year. And like most goaltenders, that's the case. But if you get a hot All-Mark, I think this team could really push anyone they play in the first round. But I also think there's a scenario where they go up against Vasilevsky or Vrovsky or

Anthony Solars or Joseph Wall. And All-Mark is the second best goaltender. So I think there's a level of trust that he's gonna be a competent goaltender But I think is he excellent or just pretty good, right? I think that will be the question and if he's really good then you have a really good chance like any team in the NHL So what is Travis greens impact on this club? You know, he's got a very particular style and I feel like he coaches kind of an he wants a playoff type of game. You know, I guess give us your thoughts on his impact on the Sens team. I mean, I wrote a story about it.

I think he should be in the Jack Adams conversation, maybe not, you know, the winner. But this team defensively in their own end is just day and night. Like in the past, guys would be leaking out all the time to try to get for a score. I was talking to Tim Stutza and I was asking him about scoring. I think he had 39 two years ago and what has changed because he hasn't been scoring as much and he said to me, in the past, I would try to leak out more. Now I'm trying to focus on the defensive end. So I think this team is just,

if you look at Travis Green's philosophy is everything's the outside, nothing in the middle. That's how their PK runs. It's like a diamond formation. And if you look at the analytics and the team itself, they're really good at stopping teams in transition, really limiting teams to the outside. I think Michael Amadio is a really good two-way player

that they've added. Shane Pinto, Ridley Grigley, they have a lot of players that are really good in their own end. David Prawn too, Klocher Rousseau. I think with Steyos' additions, plus with maybe much more of an emphasis on defensive play, this team has really become a much better defensive team.

And I think that's probably the number one reason why you see them in a playoff spot on April 3rd Yeah, anytime I hear him talk. I don't know if I'd want him. It just seems like gruff You know, it's just a lot of fun to come to work here like every day like oh, yeah Greener is gonna be leaning on us again. It just really does feel and guess what? You don't want to be best friends with your coach. No players if your best friends with your coach He's probably not the best coach, but it just he really does seem like a serious and intense guy and he's getting results What can you say? But any of your press conference I hear I'm like, holy green like Guys just won. What's wrong? Oh, it's business. Yeah, I guess I guess

Yeah, no, he's he's a tough cookie to crack but sometimes sometimes he smiled today. So oh wow, that's good He got made a couple jokes. So there you go. But last one for me at least Borny How is Claude Drew aging with the Ottawa Senators for you? I mean these hey, you know, the counting stats are okay this year He's seven forty seven points seventy four games But I mean when he kills some penalties a little bit, you know It feels like he's kind of moved into a different part of his career But you know, this is a guy that's had an excellent career and it's been an excellent playoff player too

And some of the you know Remember back in the day with the with the with the Flyers going toe-to-toe with with Sid it's a long time ago though That's 2010 but I do feel like yet another guy that may rise to the occasion once the playoffs start Yeah, I mean he just doesn't have the the leg speed to keep up in the NHL right now like you Like you have to put him with a guy like Tim Stutso because he can enter the zone But I think as you said like he's kind of been the heart and soul of this team I think the last two years where you really felt like when they were coming, when they were playing, well, he would kind of drag them into the fight. And I think he'll do that in the playoffs as well. I just don't know if he's still at

that level where he can have a huge impact in a series or in a playoff round, but he's a really good ancillary piece that you can put him in a bunch of different positions. He's a really still a really good 200 foot player. But he has been at times this year uncharacteristically just making poor reads. And I don't really know why that's the case making a couple bad turnovers. But he's still really good players can be interesting to see if he what he does in the offseason. He's a free agent. He came to auto because of his family for the most part So we'll see if he sticks around or if he goes somewhere else or if he retires But I still like closure in a playoff setting. I'm not yeah that

Alright, so listen. Thanks so much for all these insights We certainly hope that it is Toronto and auto and we get to have you on again and follow up with things man. I can't wait Gonna be great. I'm just excited for McKee's reactions All right. Thank you very much. That's Alex Adams He's a Ottawa senator a senator's writer for us here at sports net and the behind the play Podcast and just a reminder that this our kipper and born is brought to you by bet 365 You know going through that senators team You know going through that Senators team

There's a lot to like a lot of good players and I'm looking at you know What separates Toronto and Ottawa and it's really just top end, you know? They have so many good players, but you know like Tim Stutso this year 74 games played 71 points I thought he'd be a higher point total guy than that by now and Brady Kachuk, you know 71 games, 55 points. I thought he'd be a 40 goal guy. I still think that these guys will be that. They're still on the young end of things and as the team gets better, sort of rising tide raises all boats. But I think that is the ultimate separator. Yeah, you need, but that's what's also from a least respective in a potential, that's the scary part. That's the scary part is that every other top guy has kind of outplayed them.

You look at who their matchups have been against and you know last. Barkov and Sorelli and Bergeron for years. There's not necessarily a elite shut down guy on that team that you're gonna be like, oh my god Matthews is gonna get totally neutered by Barkov like he has in years past or it's not gonna be going up to Patrice Bergeron in years past Maybe it could be a little bit more higher at tempo where there's a little bit more goal not in terms of speed because I don't Think either of them are very fast teams particularly but just in general with more goals entering the net Yeah, yeah, I do think there's that potential but you know you forget

Matthews is really elite shut down guy yeah right where he goes against another team so and he can take them out defensively it just has to have the other part of it too so I think if you were gonna put the Ottawa Senators roster on I don't know the Flyers and they're your first round matchup The fans are feeling totally fine. They're feeling it's the like you're feeling the Jersey. No question It's just like their first kick at the can and however long they're gonna beat your team That's been getting beat up for eight years with first round exits. That's the only scary thing Well, and it reminds me of when this Leafs team finally got into the playoffs after a little absence.

They played the Washington Cavals, who I think were massive. They were finished first. Is that the year they won the cup? No, no, the year they won the cup, they played Columbus. But Toronto pushed them to six, won a game in OT, and it was like that energy, that youthfulness.

Had a series lead. I think it was Nazem Kadri in the slot or Bozak, one of them passed into the middle, and then Jim Houston was one of the great calls, like with this surprise in his voice being like, the Leafs have the series lead? Like it was just such a great, and you're like, this is gonna be the greatest era of Toronto Maple Leafs

hoggy. If you had taken me back to that very moment, like how many cups are there? One, two, it's just crazy how poorly it's gone, but no I I it's great stuff from Alex and at my core I can't be happy for the sense because I just might it's goes back too far But they've been a good story this year. They actually been able to sustain it so good for them So a couple of quick things before we go last night Carolina's playing Washington caps kind of scuffling a bit and Chatfield gets into a fight

with, don't remember who it was, oh, McMichael, Connor McMichael. And at the end of the fight, I mean, he can call it a slew, but he tosses him over his own leg, no helmet onto the ice, really scary play. Nothing for it. No fine, no anything for you there. Hated it. No fine. No anything for you there. Hated it. Yeah.

I think that is one of the code of hockey moves. Like you could kill him. Yeah, that's like that's a legitimate not wrong. Like if you're in a fistfight on the ice, it's totally fine. And like you can but like you can't you're mad at him. We can't try to kill the guy. I throw them to the ice like that. I think the league is worried that you can't start legislating

what you can and can't do in fights. Yeah, that's fair. I mean, you are fighting. Yeah. You are throwing punches, wearing knives. A big thank you to JD Bunkus who joined us today, to Shayna Goldman, to Alex Adams. Wonderful stuff from everyone. We're off tomorrow. We are off tomorrow.

And then I'm gone to Hawaii, so you won't see me for almost 10 days. Bye. Full crew back April 14th, but we will see you on Monday with Kipper. Bye-bye.