Real Kyper & Bourne - Vally's View: Best Fit for Hellebuyck + Leafs' Second Line Numbers

Episode Date: October 6, 2026

CEO of Clear Sight Analytics and former NHL goaltender Steve Valiquette (4:04) returns to Real Kyper and Bourne to chat about Connor Hellebuyck's trade request and sitting out in the first few games for the Winnipeg Jets, which team he would fit the best on, if Edmonton Oilers have improved on their defensive end and in net, why the numbers don't look good to start the year for the Maple Leafs' second line of Gavin McKenna, John Tavares, and William Nylander, if Jacob Markström can bounce back against the Florida Panthers, and the volatility in Sergei Bobrovsky's game. Then, it's the return of Grill Marks, where Vally asks the panel who is the oldest, tallest, and the heaviest goaltenders this season. Finally, Nick, Justin and Sam McKee discuss embellishments in hockey and Macklin Celebrini's late scratch with a lower body injury. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Sports & Media or any affiliates. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's the national hour on the Real Kipper and Bourne show. We are live on SportsNet. Sportsnet 590, The Fans, streaming always on Sportsnet Plus and YouTube, where we always appreciate a thumbs up. If you miss us, download us, Spotify, Apple, podcasts, you name it. We're there. This hour of Real Kippoor and Born brought you by Bet365 at Kippreel's Justin Bourne. Sammy McKee in a few minutes.

It's Tuesday, right back at her with Steve Alicatt. What do you got for, Sammy? Nothing. Nothing. Okay. I was just looking at my phone. He had this look on your face. No, I was distracted. He was musing over the bunting signing.

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. He was going $1.2 million. Did he get $1.2 million? Yeah. Isn't that? Not very much. Oh, gosh. I think at this point you can sign guys for $8.50, 900.

What's... They're sitting at home. Right? I mean, I guess maybe I didn't pay enough attention to a decline, but, you know, lighter guy, not fleet of foot as he gets older, I imagine he will be less effective. But, man, the Flyers need help. Kip, they're getting outshot by 20 shots a game.

What happened? They're brutal right now. What happened? I'm not really sure because I like a lot of their young guys, but you need guys to take a step and they don't have top end. Joseph Wall is like, I played the least last year and now I'm going to be this. No shots against in the league last year and now this. There's just a lot of teams that don't have top end.

Top end is really hard to find. Like Kine is their best guy. They wanted Mitch Koff to be that. And he hasn't found it yet. Zegris, none of us here are massive Zegris guys. I like Stanheim. You know, like they just don't have top end. They're really solid all the way through.

But they need everyone going. And you called them an immature team. Yeah, I did. I did. And yeah, I just think that they still have a long way to go to bring back that that feel of being a powerhouse in the National Hockey League, which they were in my era. The top headline on SportsCat.a, as they pull up the website here,

is Larkin, likely to debut versus the senators. Thoughts, boys. I mean, he's under contract. He's the, you know, recent captain. He's healthy. There's no reason he shouldn't play. Yeah, I totally agree with that. I think that he should be their best player.

Yeah, to me. And how can you come to the rink without your best player? His best chance of getting traded also is playing well to me. Like play really well so teams like, okay, this guy's available, he's great. You know, I don't think going out there and doing what Pierre Luke Dubois did to get traded out of Columbus is particularly helpful. You know, I think he's got to give a good effort. They need them. I want a documentary

Like I don't know When do they usually come out like 10, 20 years later? I want I want to I want to hear this whole story Yeah So he got viciously booed In the home opener when they introduced him We had the conversation about it yesterday

Some of the clips or the pictures of shirts that were floating You don't think someone should wear an Osama bin Larkin shirt That was a thing that was someone wore to a game People with like the leaving instead of Larkin on the back like he's going to get booed mercilessly again every time he touches the pock like what if he scores what's the reaction fans in a bit of a pickle

a dilly of a pickle would you say it's a dilly it's a full Larkin Hellebuck two of the biggest names right now that are out there and in the respective markets maybe public enemy number one

love to hear our next guest thoughts as we welcome in season debut. Oh, yeah, man. Do you not know that, like, like, like we own the Toronto Blue Jays? Can't come on. He's okay.

As long as the Jays are out, I think we're okay. A ball just got by Steve Valakat as he's sitting there. Fourth error of the hit. Valios. How are you, my friend? Are you ready for this season? Are you ready for us this season? I've been waiting here for two weeks.

You haven't called? Yeah, yeah. You got the grill time in your back pocket ready to go? Yeah, how was the dinner? Skipper, how did it go? Tell me you used it, Kipper. Oh, no, you know what? I still have it.

You didn't tell us this, Kipper. Hold on. Yeah, he sent me a gift certificate, like a, a, an amazing steakhouse. Valley, what a guy. I sent you a note going, oh my God, I can't believe you did that. And then I forgot about it.

Oh, come on. Hey, wait for Valley. You should wait for your in town. Thank you for reminding me. Thank you for reminding me. Jacob's Steakhouse, was it not? That's right. That's right.

Jesus, Louise. Jacob's Steakhouse, boy. Fresh off there, Dante's Fiesta. Gentleman and the scholar, the Steve Valacette. It's a privilege to have you on the show. Hey, like multiple concussions. You've got to cut me some slack. All right.

We'll have to reach up to your wife to make sure you use it. That's how you get things done, I promise. True or false? Like Hella Buck, one of the hottest stories. It continues to be out there. We just mentioned Larkin, but let's start with Hella Buck. And your overall clear sight analytics on where this thing is heading. Yeah, it's wild, isn't it?

You know what, guys? I went back and I was looking at from the time that Shevoldeov took over as GM in 2011. He went three years and I think it was eight months before making a player for player trade. Does Hellebach not know that? Like he's a patient guy.

He might not be willing to do something quickly here. Hellebach himself, look, I think this is, I'm again, I'm mostly pro player as well, but I don't like to see guys set a precedent where they're not going to continue to play when they have term like he does. As far as where he could end up, we have a goalie swap model on our app that we're able to plug a goalie into the different nets around the NHL based on the last two years of how that

team performed and how the goalie performed in his own net and then get a good sense of how the fit's going to be. The one area that Hellebuck doesn't fit into a lot of nets is net front. So shots from the point where there are traffic, screens, broken plays, deflections, that hasn't been something that suited him well in the postseason. And when it reflects on the different teams around the league, some do it well, some don't, some teams that don't, that may be on his list, that don't protect netfront really well, that would include Detroit, San Jose, Florida, Montreal. I don't think he's going to go to a Canadian city.

What I have seen, guys, is that over his 11 years in Winnipeg, only four playoff rounds, he's won. The reason why is the net front chances, 29 goals against in his playoff career on net front chances for a safe percentage of just 762. Now, that is fifth worst amongst the 90-some goalies that have played in the Stanley Cup playoffs during his term. But Brobsky, as a comparable, was fifth best. So I think you're worried a little bit about fit. What I did go through the exercise with as well was putting them in each team's net and then seeing what goalies would possibly come out in a trade. Wedgwood, he would have performed better than Hellebuck in the Colorado net.

Blackwood would have been a good exchange. It would be a plus seven in Hellebuck's favor if he goes into Colorado's Net and Blackwood is in a trade. If he goes to Florida, because it doesn't work out with Markstrom, which could happen, he would have stopped 40 more goals than Bobrovsky would have last year. But keep in mind, Bobrovsky was the worst performing goalie last year in the NHL as a minus 22. So there's some contacts there. In Carolina, he'd be a huge upgrade on Bussie.

In Vegas, he'd be a big upgrade on Hill and a marginal upgrade. grade on Hart. In San Jose, because I think that could be a deal. He'd be a plus 40 over Ascarov, which would be astronomical Ascarov. He undercover a little bit last year. He had a pretty bad year. Over Allen, only a plus five in New Jersey, but over what Markstrom was last year in New Jersey, a plus 30. In Buffalo, marginal up, a plus three on UPL and a plus four on Lion. So that's what it would look like around the league and where he would fit in with his skill set and the way that he would be coming into an environment that defends in his favor or not. That's fascinating stuff. I'm curious to see, you know, maybe Carolina makes a lot of sense.

Curious to see how that plays out. You know, we're going to ask you about lots of goalies today, so I'll keep it moving on that. I may get back to Helibuck, but I don't want to make sure we get all these other ones in. First off, hello, hi, how are you? Good to see you. Secondly, Oilers. Jari, Levi, can either one of these guys

be the answer for the Oilers this season? I think a lot of it's going to depend on how well they defend. And, you know, it's interesting because last year, Jari's safe percentage off the rush was 871. As a comparable,

Walshead, he was a 936 with the same amount of chances faced. But the environment was considerably different. It was easier in Minnesota to play off the rush than it was in Edmonton. And I think that the most important thing for everybody in hockey to understand is you have to protect the slot line, the line that goes down the middle of the ice. The way I would explain it to

defensemen is that there is a net there on the slot line and if the puck goes through that line, it's essentially going into your net, And whether the player crosses it with possession or it's a pass, it's more likely to end up in your goalie's net. We did a big research study on two-on-ones and three-on-twos this summer. Edmonton doesn't rate very well in those. How long can they play without defending the right way for their goalies? But watch the first two games, the Vancouver games, not good for either guy. But the other night, I thought Levi played very well.

He had five high danger saves in the game, a lot of cross crease, but he's not very long. And, you know, that's a big deal right now in the NHL because right now in the NHL, there's more rush and there's more net front. And if you're not long, you have issues with covering those two very important areas of the ice. Just a real short follow to that about the slot line thing. How early on a two-on-one, like I loved as a forward to make a pass as soon as we got across the blue? Because usually the D is still backed off and he's not in your way yet. the goalie move? Is that still dangerous or is it matter how deep in the

zone the pass is? It's a great question if the goalie's over challenging. Yeah. So if the goal is outside is a crease and sick. Okay. But if he's back but if he's back, it's a different read. Try and get in, get closer. You're still a shoot first option. But the

part of the two on one that hurts most teams, Borny, is when the defenseman jumps the puck carrier in the circle. It's easier to pass through that defenseman. and get it across the slot line for the valuable tap-in. And when you're going through what, like, Edmonton wasn't good at last year

and what you can expect this year, how do you factor in that darnel nurse played 20 minutes a night and he's no longer there? And, you know, Ryan Shea comes in and, like, how does that all kind of mix in and help or hurt comparables from one season to the next? It's absolutely a fair. comment because the biggest challenge we have predicting what's going to happen this year is look at

the lineup changes for the Rangers for Toronto for Edmonton. The best you can do is look at look at hockey in four buckets, all right? Because there are four things that account for what matters most in the game. Number one, at five on five, it's off the rush. That's where 30% of all the offense comes from any given night in the NHL. So that's most important. That's why we're talking about off the rush. And I'll talk about that a lot because there is a lot of rush hockey right now. Rush chances are up.

So 5V5 rush matters. The second bucket that really matters is 5 on 5 ozone play when you have the puck with possession. And you're looking for dots down offense. You're looking for net front offense, slot line offense. Those are the three key areas. The next key bucket is five-on-four offense. Same thing. When you have possession on the power play five-on-four in your setup,

you're looking for slot-line plays, dots down offense, which is mostly placed from below the goal line to slot or net front. And you're trying to win net front every night. And the fourth bucket, which actually the Leafs were great at last year, but that was too much to their identity, was the unsettled offense, looking for offense off of four checks, 50-50 puck wins. giveaways, takeaways, that's unsettled offense. And if you look at hockey this way, guys, it's really what I've arrived at this summer,

which is I sent you guys some work yesterday. And the reason why is because you can get a good idea of a team's playing style, and then what wins and what matters most, and you can track it during a season. The Stanley Cups that have been one over the last five years, they have a significant blueprint with what I just described there. four out of every five goals in the NHL is scored in one of those four ways that I just described. Yeah. So you mentioned that rushes are up this year.

Is that typical that early in the season before systems, people are well structured, that there's more rushes early or is this uncommon? It is. It is. Look, I was looking at the safe percentage and it was 890 two days ago. Last year was 896 league-wide, 30-year low. right now there is more net front and there's more off the rush chances, more high danger chances overall. There's a lot of loose hockey. I was looking at just falling out of my frame here for a second.

The Ottawa Senator's Bruins game last night. There's 14 shots on goal, Ottawa on Boston's net, and they've got six high danger chances after two periods. Like it's not easy hockey, borney. It's really challenging for a goalie. Swamen's playing great hockey. He was outstanding Tuesday against the Rangers. Patience. He has his timing. He's out there. He's facing one two on one after another, one

breakaway after another, and not facing any feelers. Like that's the biggest issue that the game has right now for the goalie is there's not enough shots in the game to keep them warm and they're facing the high danger chances at a higher rate than ever before. You're watching and listening to

Steve Aliquette analyst with the New York Rangers on MSG and CEO of ClearSite Analytics. So lots of talk here in Toronto, particularly around the fourth line with McKenna, Neelander. Second line, sorry. McKenna, maybe soon. Easy now.

McKenna, John Tavaris and Neelander. And is it expecting goals against? They rank maybe one of the worst in the league, right? 125, 127. Jim Hiller says he's going to be patient. When you do analytics and you see those sorts of numbers, what's your first instinct? Give them another chance or blow it up?

Oh, geez. You have to give them at least a five to seven game run and they haven't gotten there yet. I typically look at offense when a player gets to like an expected goals number of five or six under what they should be performing at. They're always going to break loose. especially when it's a top scorer.

I remember we talked about that last year with Jason Robertson. He got off to a start where he was a minus seven and then he scored in his next six games. That's very typical. The other way, it doesn't work as typical, I would say. It's almost like you can't afford the negative side, the way you can't afford the positive side because the positive side with scoring chances is you're getting scoring chances.

The only time a scorer should get worried, concerned is when they're not getting chances. But when it's going the other way, the dam usually breaks even if you haven't felt the goals against because that's the game we live in, guys. The high danger chances go in one every three times. You have to win that battle. I could tell you last year in the Stanley Cup playoffs, the record was 12 and 3 for the teams that won the high danger battle in their playoff series. In the first round, Montreal, They lost their high danger battle against Tampa. Tampa probably should have won.

Buffalo, they also won the high danger battle in round two. Montreal won that. So I thought that Montreal got through by the skin of their teeth twice. In the Stanley Cup final, Vegas actually had more high danger chances than Carolina. I want to make sure that we get around the league here. So move on to Florida. Last year you had mentioned to us that the way that they played would have really insulated Jordan Binnington.

He would have been a very nice fit there. They don't give up a lot of rush chances. He had struggled off the rush. They added Markstrom this year, and everyone around here has picked Florida to win the Stanley Cup. Markstrom, is he a good fit for the style of defending that the Panthers bring?

You know, there's something with age guys that changes the way that you react, your quickness, which is one, but also the way that you replay, read puckoff release, react on straight shots that used to be relatively routine, and then moving out of them. And those three things are more challenged the older you get. You may think that you're moving really well.

You may still think that you're a Vesna level goalie, but it's like recording myself last year skiing. And I thought I was, I thought I was Han Solo going down there. I'm talking to a couple of my buddies afterwards. I'm like, man, I looked at the video of myself. It's embarrassing. I thought I was killing it. And one of my buddies, Anders Mirvald.

Anders Mirvald is a Norwegian guy that skis a lot, and he watches your show. He's called me about it. He goes, Valley, after 40, never watch yourself on video. Like, that just way it is. It doesn't look like it does in your head. I feel the same way, guys, I feel the same way about after age 35 for the hockey goalie. It's like, you've lost a step. You can't help it.

your eyes aren't converging and diverging at the same rate they once did. And I oftentimes, when I'm watching the game, I've got my computer next to me so that I can go and click over. If I don't like the way something looks, like Markstrom may be missing an open shot and spilling a rebound. And I can tell you that it's always confirmed that the older guys don't quite have the same safe percentage they once did on the clear-sighted shots, not just stopping them, but managing the rebounds that spill out. In fact, Bobrovsky, over the last three years, I think his number was worst in the NHL.

Yeah, it was. He has a 747 save percentage on rebounds over the last three years, which was worst in the NHL. I got to ask, there's some Calgary Flame fans out there still, despite their tough start. What kind of year is Dustin Wolf in four?

Well, I can tell you that a lot of, Okay, the goalie position is emotional, isn't it? And you're oftentimes connected to results. And results are based on the positioning of your teammates. That's how you read the play. Calgary is going to be an incredibly hard team to play for. They have two great goleys. Cooley, I believe, is a guy that somebody should want to bring into their tandem if they need a goalie.

I think he's one of the top eligible younger guys that's capable of playing more minutes. I have all the respect in the world for both of their games. I just think the environment they're in, it will stress them and it will make it very difficult for them to believe game after game that they can go out and just play their game without trying to do more, which oftentimes becomes less. You know, twice now you've mentioned Bobrovsky and being the worst in the league last year at a couple things,

which if you're doing the Toronto Maple Leaf stuff is a concern, They're going to Stolar's tonight. The panel here has conflicting views on how that should go. Are you okay with saying to Bob? Hey, we're going back to Stolars tonight. Well, it's tough because it's hard on the ego, Borny. You know, it doesn't matter. When you get older, it doesn't get any easier.

I was talking to Henrik about this the other night. It's like there's more pressure the older you get because you're trying to get back to the level that you played at. And I did a lot of research on this summer. I have something in front of me. me and it's a goalie recovery model and it's really important when you've had a season of minus 15, meaning you've allowed 15 more goals than you should have. And depending on your age, can you recover from that?

Because we know there's a lot of volatility in the goalies game, but younger goalies under age 27, what we've found is that, and this is over a 10 year study, young goalies who fall below expectations, minus 15 or worst. They can recover quickly because with one season, this group, poor season is oftentimes volatility not decline. So I wrote down two goalies that would have qualified for this conversation from last year. That would be Ascarov, Marilinen. Mid-tier veteran goalies, age 27 to 32, recovery depends heavily on the environment.

Goalies in this range can rebound if they move in a structured, predictable team system, especially if they have a past winning pedigree. So a goalie that would be in that conversation would be Aidan Hill. Decord had a down year last year but is recoverable. Lankin is another goalie. But older goalies that are 33 or older and have a season minus 15, they fall behind that minus 15 line recovery becomes much less likely. At this age, a poor season is more often structural decline signal than a short-term performance dip.

Now, this is really where we're talking about Bennington and Bobrovsky because of their age. Now, what we've understood over these 10 years, and this is something that I send to our client teams is because most teams in the off-season are considering doing something with their goalie picture. Above a minus-15 is recoverable. Below a minus-15 is high-risk, but situational, and below a minus-20 is a strong decline signal, especially for goalies at 33 and over. And this is all about acquisition value because you can try and find somebody

that's coming off a down year that might be available. And that's why teams in the off-season work towards this. I have one really good case study to bring up, which is Darcy Kemper. Because when he was leaving Washington three years ago

and going into his 34-year-old year, he was the second worst goalie in our model. He was a minus 19. and I thought he was done. But he went to L.A. and coincidentally played for Hiller. Jim Hitler insulated him really well in the starting months of the season, October, November. And then I felt like Kemper bought into his own game,

and he took it and he went through the roof. And he's been great since. Overall, his entire career in L.A., well insulated, but got his game back. And he had winning pedigree, as Bobrovsky does. So I think that when you separate these things and you're trying to look at, you know, look, Bob was available for a reason.

He was a minus 22 last year. Can he be recoverable under the right conditions? Toronto just can't defend in front of him like they did last year. I got to ask you about Allmark not finishing the game last night. And like, I mean, we've seen this record before, skip a few times here. Yeah. Is it a good thing that he feels confident enough despite his reputation to do this? Pull himself?

Look, if I'm in the room, I am having an out-of-body experience with this guy. And I want to give him another chance. I mean, that's human nature. But I feel like it's a bad relationship where I had a guy working on my house. He messed everything up. And he was a great guy. This is my Vermont house, just in case my local guy here in Connecticut is listening. But, you know, he wrecked my Canam.

He just one thing after another. And, you know, how it is with relationships. I just knew it wasn't going to get any better. There's always going to be something. And with this relationship, this team, Ottawa is too good of a team. They could have missed the playoffs last year going through it with him. And I think that it would be a big mistake if they don't. don't get ahead of this future problem now.

All right. Hold on before you do the next thing. Did you add a third Emmy? Is that what's behind you? Do you have three Emmys now? Yes, yes, yes, yes. Look at the bottom shelf, too. I know, pretty cool.

It's got three. He's got all the boys books. Do you see your books over here, guys? Did see that. I got a good one for you. I went to the bookstore the other day. And, Borny, your book, it comes out a day before Doug McLean.

in the U.S. I don't know if you knew that. I didn't know that, no. So I ordered both of them because I am a supporter of you guys. Thanks, pal. Three Emmys, man. What an honor to have you on our program. And I don't know if you noticed, the towel that's a bit of a collector's item right now, too. Oh, it is. It is. Hey, so if we go into grill time, yeah, I think he's got a grill time for us to start this season. I do? Well, one of them include, do we think that Shisterkin's going to challenge

McDavid for the Art Ross trophy? Can you believe him? He was going for it again on Sunday. He was going for the net. So Schisturkin's having his own out-of-body experience. Now, there's got to be some sort of handicap we can give Kipper. I think he won by one

point and we stopped a week early, so it's under... We absolutely stopped a week early. You're in the lead all season long, Borny. But to me, if you're sent to Jacobs' gift card and don't use it, you're void. You're out of the contest. No, no. No, there's no expiration date on that thing.

Okay. But I'm going to try and get it sponsored this year. But ground beef's going up in price and I got to get in there. Ground beef. You're not going to Jacob for brown. Hey. Hey, have you seen the prices of Jacobs? I'm getting ground beef.

Oh my God. That's great. We've been talking a lot in this show about the age. of the aging goaltenders, et cetera. So the first question on grill time is, who is the oldest goalie in the NHL this year? I have a list of five guys. And I'm going to name them right now.

You guys got to select which one is correct. Darcy Kemper, Jake Allen, Jacob Markstrom, Cam Talbot, Sergey Babrovsky. I have my answer, but I'm afraid to, I don't know it, but I'm going Talbot. That was my answer, too. I think it's Talbot. It's Cam Talbot, age 39.

Good work, boys. Everybody gets a point. Hot start. Everybody gets a point. On the board. All right. Who is the tallest goaltender in the NHL this season? Mike Dunham.

I have a list here, and it is Joel Hofer. Okay. This is actually. interesting because there were so many goalies here that are six foot six which one of these guys is not six foot six okay Joel hoper anthony stolars Sebastian kosah Dennis Hildeby or Jacob Markstrom markstrom got it those other guys feel like humans I think Stoller 6 5 I'm gonna say is Hild to be that big yeah I'll think Hildeby sure Who's not 6-5?

Who's not 6-6? Oh, who's not 6-6? Hartstrom. Final answer. I'll go Stollars. Stollars. Hofer. Hofer.

The rest is, all those other guys are 6-6. Monsters, man. Jeez, that's huge. All right, and on this theme, I think my teammates in Sudbury would like this from my past history being a very heavy goalie. Who is the heaviest goalie in the NHL this year? Hildebee, COSA, Stolars, Vasilefsvsky. I know the answer. It's Stolars.

Stolars, for sure. All right, everybody's on the board. Oh, nothing said. Oh, no. Really sister kisser early. I saw he was in the top 10 total weight or something, all positions. He's a big man. Seriously.

Hey, all right. Really, guys, I'm sorry about the season the Blue Jays had. But give me a little support here. It's baseball in October. All right, pal. You know the three days for the Yankees, too, right? You get to enjoy this until October 9th. Probably going to the game if there is a Thursday game.

So, you know, hoping for the best. Only because of you, I'll say good luck. Come on. All right, pal. All right, boys. Thanks for joining us, Valley. All right, Valley. Great stuff, as always.

Off to a great start. Thanks for doing this. Steve Aliquette. Goalies did not used to be 660. 240 consistently. What did you think of his algorithm for finding Hellebuck the right spot?

Fascinating. There's teams where he'd be 40 goals better? The team that just... No, it's Carolina. Whatever he said the number, I think it was 30 goals better than... It'll be Bussy. It's just the team for me. I just... Yeah. Like, what is Carolina going to give him?

It's not a huge going to because he's not going to go. I just feel like Hella's not... He's just going to watch the season. You think he's going to watch the whole year? I don't know. I could see it go until like deadline time anyway. Do you think it could go the whole year, Kip? No.

I don't think it's going to go the whole year. I think, but it may go to December. Really? Yeah. Also, Winnipeg's going to get desperate too, right? Like, they need a body back for him if he's not in the net. That kid they picked up on waivers looked pretty good last night against the pens. Place Stevenson's good.

Yeah? He's a real deal. Okay. Game time? Game time. It's game time. presented by Bet365, home of the three-goal early payout, an official partner of the NHL, most-19 plus, Ontario and Alberta only.

Please play responsibly. Nine games on tap tonight, boys. Good night. Love a Tuesday. Big night in the NHL. I, of course, because it's always about the Leafs Net, I'm going to look at the Toronto Maple Leafs game, and they are big faves tonight.

They are minus 164 on the money line. Preds coming in are a plus. 139. I just wanted to look at a couple goal scores. Over his career, I should have pulled this up before the show, but I can't imagine there's many guys that have scored more goals against the Leifes that are active right now than Stephen Stamco's.

Give me a Stephen Stamco's anytime goal tonight plus 205. You don't want curfut? I don't. You know, we could do curfut, but like, you know, that's just too, too easy. AI tells me Stamco says 24 goals and 56 games against the Leafs. Does that sound right? Feels a lot. A.I. But it feels like it could be more than that.

I got to tell you, AI stats are trash. Do not listen to what I just said. Yeah. Anyways. And I think tonight is the night. I think God McKenna is going to get off the Shinae tonight. And I think one is going to enter the net. A goal?

I think one is going to enter the net via his stick tonight. Give me a any time Gavin McKenna. Plus 800. Plus 280. Plus 280. Eventually. Yeah. He's not going to go zero and zero.

It really helps when your coach is still, I think, pushing, and he should be able to hit between 13 and 15 minutes tonight. Yeah. It will give him a legit shot of finding a bit of a seam here. It's a mediocre team. And a couple other really good games tonight. Montreal hosting the hurricane tonight rematch of the Eastern Conference final. Montreal is actually underdogs in that game plus 11.

So maybe a little bit of value there. And the New York teams, Isles versus Rangers, at MSG, always fun. Simon Varlamov back. First time since 2024. Only double knee surgery, right? Yeah, yeah, you just got new knees.

Okay, he's fine. Anyways, that was game time. That was game time, because then I bet, 365, home of the three goal, early payout, and an official partner of the NHL must be 19 plus, Ontario and Alberta only.

Please play responsibly. Okay, let's take a quick break. When we return, go around the national. National Hockey League, diving allegations. Did you ever dive? I'll answer that after the break. Good T's.

What else we got? Yes. We got injuries. Montreal's. Demadov. Demydanov? Sellebrini. Barkov.

Barcov. Celebrity. That sucks. Plenty. That's super fun. Around the league when we returned to Real Kipperman Born. The best Blue Js show out there, period. Blair and Barker.

to subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. As a reminder, this hour of Real Kippurin, brought to by Bet365. Nick Kippreelis, Justin Boren, Sammy McKee. Nine games, Sammy tonight. Would you say nine? A lot of hot.

Carolina, Montreal. You get a lot of games. Nashville, Toronto, Utah, New Jersey, Minnesota Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, St. Louis, Chicago, Vegas, Seattle, and Florida, L.A. Speaking of the Ottawa, Senators, off to a pretty good start. Yeah.

No Jake, Jake Sanderson. Allmark now out. I don't know how, we don't know how long he'll be out. But a little challenging right off the bat, but Stutzla off to a pretty good start. Sammy doesn't like it. Pretty nice goals we've seen early in the season out of him. Yet there's a little bit of a talk about this guy being maybe the worst diver.

in the league. You know, we're fresh off a World Cup where this is a thing in other sports, right, trying to draw penalties. It's a skill in the NHL that teams love to have. Yeah, okay. There's a skill and then there's don't embarrass the officials. Yes. But the only reason why you don't want to is so it doesn't come back to you the next time

when you do it, right? That's the big deal. 100%. Let me check it. You will not get benefit of the doubt. And these officials, they're a team just like any other team we've watched. They stick together. They share notes.

And if you gain this reputation of being that guy, you won't get the legit calls, let alone the fandom ones. The top five in drawn penalties last year, could you guys guess? Try to do your best. There's a number of guys. Connor. Connor. Connor number one and a staggering number.

56 drawn penalties, which is 18 better than the next highest total. The next one is NAS? Don't think you'll get the next one. No, no NAS? No. Next one is the D-Man who's tough to pin down. Quinn Hill.

Kale, McCar. Matthew Schaefer. Really? Schaefer drew 38 penalties last year. And then third is Timmy Stu with 36. So he does it. A lot. And he's good at.

Has he ever been fined for diving? That I don't know. I'll look it out. But like... By the way, the rest of that top list, Celebrini, Pasternak, Rantan, and Beckett Seneca, as well as Ridley, Greg. All tied at 34 drawn penalties last year.

Tim Stutzler has never been fined by the NHL for diving embellishment despite a widespread reputation among players and fans for exaggerating contact. Cadre, 28. He used to be number one. There is an argument to say historically it's been a play

right, that guys have used and some guys are really good at it. I thought I was actually pretty good at it. You had a sense for when to go. Like there's a point where you're not getting the call unless you go down. You can, there's ways that you can

exaggerate certain things. Not necessarily just throwing your head. But if I'm in a 50-50 race and I would feel a guy just pull my shoulder for split second, you can actually fight through it or you could turn yourself right around. Yeah.

And it's like, well, how did I get here official? And you will get the call if you actually turn around. I don't need, you don't need. even need to have to fall. Yeah. If you just shift your skates to go, I got, I got, I got yanked. Someone tweeted a Mario Lemuel goal today where he like pushes it past the D and the D's flat-footed

and sets the hook in the water ski and it's just pulling, pulling, pulling. I don't know if people remember young people definitely don't remember how much that was a part of the game. Are you talking about the one where he put the puck in Ray Bork skates and he kicked it up to him? No, this is a separate embarrassment of D where he is. water-skied. Yeah.

I don't know. I just... But for the record, I'm kind of being devil's advocate. I don't like it. Particularly the dramatic fall down. I just think there's a certain honor in hockey that guys have been diving for editor, but we know the guys. We know the names.

Like, you have a reputation. Yeah. And, like, the fact that Stutzla has never been fined is insane to me. Good at it. No, he's not. He's not good at it. So far. I watch every game that he plays at my golf.

You can never read his jersey because it's covered in snow. He's on the ice the whole game. There's the ones that you can exaggerate. And then there's the ones where you snap your head back with no reason because the stick didn't hit you. Yeah. Yeah, you're right. And that's from fabricating. It's massively different.

Yeah. And when when you snap your head back. Yeah, when you snap your head back and you find out the stick never hit you at all. The rest are like, oh, this guy. So do you, let me ask you both this question. If you're going around the league and it's your job to watch things and see who's embellishing and dish out fines and given the reputation, do you not think what happens Saturday night is worth 5K as a fine? I think you have to have embellishment penalties typically.

That's typically the only embellishment fines you get as a guy gets multiple embellishment penalties and then they fine them. Yeah, I don't know about diving. I'd be fine with a fine. Yeah, just at some point. You can argue it's an unsportsman-like conduct. I think Stutzler has turned into one of the premier players in the league. I think he's incredibly fun to watch. He flies.

He's got sick hands. He's good both ways. He scored two shorties last night, I think. You don't need to do it every game. Well, with so many cameras in the building now, I'd be really scared to pretend I got hit when I really didn't. You can say you're in a 50-50 and got tangled and go down or whatever. But when there's no actual contact, there's no actual contact,

then you know you're going to get called out on it. And the best thing is the Sends fans on Twitter being like, oh, he's just so good. Like, just imagine what they would be saying if he was on the Leafs. Like the- You got to see it for years. Oh, yeah, Cadre you did it. You know who's brutal for it was Bunting. Bunting was a horrible die.

Cadry 28 drawn penalties last year, Bunting 27. But he probably took a few, too. Like his plus minus probably wasn't great for that. But just the sense fans that are like, oh, he's just so elite. It makes me so happy how Matt, you're secretly embarrassed about this. That your best player is an egregious diver, I would be embarrassed about it. That's it. Dutzo took a decent amount, too.

He was plus 18. Bunting was plus 17. And there is a feeling like he's this was actually better today than he was even three years ago. Oh, yeah. He's got to be a 90-point guy for them. Oh, at that. No, at embellishment.

Oh, geez. Yeah, that's not great. They think he's actually been better lately. I don't know about the week. I mean, I've watched two games this week with him involved, and he's had an egregious dive in both of them, so I don't know how much better he's getting. Celerini.

Celebrini. Anyone know? Go ahead. Left in warm up, I believe, did he not? I know what that tells me? What? Florida. pounded him.

Yeah. To the point where he... Lower body. He tweaked something. Something didn't feel right. It wasn't enough to keep him out of warm up, but then after he's like, no, I can't go. But I watched that game.

They ran them, boys. They went after him. They did, but good for... The trouba stuck up... Yes. I think it was on that hit, maybe. Maybe on that hit. Yeah, you mean the punch in the head from behind

by Brady Kachuk? Yes. Yeah. We should have a quick Brady Kachuk conversation and sends fans. My feed is a lot of Senators fans taking early victory laps on Kachuk's start. No points through three games, a minus, not a ton of minutes. Like Matthew's playing five, six more minutes per game. Just not a hot start for Brady in Florida so far.

Well, we have a lot of players that are better. Like, he's just going to play less because they have five players. What was his minutes? the other night, 15, 16, his brother played, what, six minutes? 22 or three? Six, seven more minutes. I think on Ottawa, he was one of their stars. And on Florida, he's not a star.

This reminds me, though, of, like, when a team who's rebuilding gets a player and not to do, but like when Calgary got Conor Zari, and they're like, we got a guy. And it's like, you know, the level for being really, really good in this league is so high. And once you get good and you're back in the playoffs, Philly made playoffs last year, did they not? They did.

Yeah. And then, and now it's like, they won a playoffs series. That's right, too. It'd be Pittsburgh and then got swept by Carolina. And like once you get into that tier of teams and Montreal ran up against it in

playoffs with Carolina is like there's another level still. And Brady is experiencing that on that team where he's going to have stretches where he scores and he accumulates points. But I don't think he'll ever be like his brother in terms of. of the big numbers that Kachuk Matthew's already, like, had. Yeah. I don't know if, if Brady's going to get there. Brady has multiple seasons of 35, 35 and 37 goals.

I thought he was going to be a 40-gold guy forever because he lives in the crease. But on Florida right now with Ryan Hart and for Hagey and Bennett and all these guys on the power play, like where's. Markov at some point. He's just one of a handful of guys. And in Ottawa, he was the guy. Yeah. Yeah. So, going to be interesting to see how that works out, like, how he adjusts his role.

Do they sell their podcast? Honestly, I don't know. Do they sell their podcast? You can maybe talk about it on there. I don't go over well in Ottawa. They love that there. Good news for Panthers fans, right? With Barkov avoiding surgery.

That's really big news. because his body language leaving the ice the other night in San Jose said, no, not again. Still probably bummed to miss what could be two months. That's not nothing. So get the frustration there. What did you make? I just saw something on here.

I wanted to talk to you about. Hold on a second. We got Obie's final season. Do we discuss that? No. Would you make of Zari clearing waivers? Yeah, Elliot tweeted that it was a salary thing and that they're still trying to work out a trade. you know, they're going to bury 3.775 in the minors.

Cap hit doesn't matter because they're not going to be a cap team. So if they just want to pay real dollars, they can swap them for someone who makes less. And there's people in Toronto being like, do miles wood for him, you know. Yeah. But I think you'd have to add to make that happen. And he was a first rounder. Yeah, 24th overall in 2020.

Yeah. It really hurts when your first rounder just doesn't pan out. That's during a rebuild. It's hard because. yeah, you might get picks, but you just can't guarantee that they're going to be, again, not just guys who are good, but guys who are better than your average good player in the league. So that's what you're trying to do. You really need those to hit.

But it looks like Flames will have a very high pick this year. Very like. Unfortunately. They'll be picking high. Hellebuck won't go to Canada. I saw LeBron had reported that. So I don't know if we didn't know that or not. You wouldn't go to Montreal or Edmonton?

No. Why not? Guys, you're telling me he's going to go through all of this with Winnipeg just to move next door to Edmonton? I don't think Edmonton and Montreal. No, you're, you don't go through all what he went through and the whole USA thing to turn around and go to Canada. Not a chance. Okay. Not a chance.

Yeah, Ovi's final season. He played 12 minutes over the other night. There was, why he said he's quit. There were issues with him and the whole Canada, USA thing. and White House and all of it. So don't tell me for one second. It's not made a major part of what he's going through in Winnipeg. He's had some combos on this show over the year.

I know. That was a bad. That show after they lost. Tough show. OV playing 12 minutes tonight is a massive story. What are they going to do with him? No. Chicago.

They're just going to suck again. They can't tear it to the studs. It's not easy to rebuild. People keep their jobs. do, hey? Rebuilding. How good they're. You just have to sell a plan.

Sell a plan. Our thanks to Craig Simpson and Steve Aliquette. Nine games on top. Pick yours. And join us tomorrow. And we'll do it all over again on the real Kipper and Born Kielman.