Real Kyper & Bourne - Vally's View: Goalie Takeaways from Round One

Episode Date: April 21, 2026

New York Rangers analyst and CEO of Clear Sight Analytics, Steve Valiquette (3:58), joins Nick Kypreos and Justin Bourne to chat about why his concerns for the Ottawa Senators — who are down 0-2 in their series with the Carolina Hurricanes — focus on Linus Ullmark's performance, why Frederik Andersen hasn't changed in his eyes, how the Canadiens are finding ways to get by Andrei Vasilevskiy, if Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen can outplay Jeremy Swayman, and Connor Hellebuyck airing out his grievances on the Jets' season. Then, Nick, Justin and Sam McKee touch on Sunny Mehta's introductory press conference as the new general manager for the New Jersey Devils and if Sheldon Keefe will stay on as their head coach.  The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Sports & Media or any affiliates.

All right, let's get her going nationally. It's the real Kipper and Born show. We are live on Sportsnet 650 in Vancouver. Sportsnet 960 in Calgary. Streaming always on Sportsnet Plus. Spotify, Apple, podcast, and YouTube. Love the chats. If you can give us a thumbs up, we'd appreciate that.

Steve Aliquette will join us for his regularly scheduled Tuesday. We'll get into those goaltenders, including Allmark, who's been pretty darn good. Freddie Anderson, albeit one soft goal that Sammy felt like he needed to go to Twitter and give him a bit of a shot. Oh, you follow me on there? No, but people tell me this.

Oh, good. Oh, wow, good. You got some following now. We've created a monster, J.B. That's good. Let's get some traction on that stuff. Oh, me taking a shot at Frederick Anderson? Follow for more. Still fresh in your mind, those Toronto days.

I just, you know my thoughts. Do your little thing. This hour of Real Kippenborn, brought to you by Bet365. Yeah. And that's it. That's it. So, four hockey games last night, we did a little bit on this in the first hour, but I was mostly tuned to Caroline Ottawa, Edmonton game.

Yeah. The only one that surprised me is Ottawa going home down to nothing. Yeah. thought for sure there'd be a split there. Seems like they're so much more prepared and ready for this compared to what we saw against the Toronto Maple Leafs last year in their first round. Allmark was horrible this time last year against the Leafs. And it's been their best player.

And he's still down to nothing. It's actually ironic that his great play is making me more mad at him for Ottawa Senators' fans' sake. Because if he was anything other than Putrid for the first three or four months of the year, they wouldn't have to play the best team in the Eastern Conference, and he wouldn't have to be prime Dominic Hasick in this game to get it to Watt. Like, you know how good this guy can be. Where was this for them?

They wouldn't have to be in the series. But, you know, I shouldn't take away from his... What a save. I know. He was all over it. What a pack here. Look at the saves at 30 seconds left. Oh, it's a piece. God.

He was awesome. Could he used a sliver of that in November? They really let Carolina off the hook. They got a bit of a gift on the offside penalty shot, whatever the case was. You can listen to our thoughts in the first hour. Which is like second life. Yeah. You're right.

At that point, then Amadio goes in on the breakaway shortly after and catches a piece of post. And they just couldn't get it across the line, man. Timmy Stutzler breaks in. slides it past the pad, off the post, any other angle that goes into the net. That's just the one is like, I can't believe that's not in the net. He did everything right.

There's two moments. That and the Amadio moment where it's a, as soon as it's heading towards like, oh, that's in, then and it finds a way not to go in. It's gross. The Ottawa senators going home for game three Thursday night, down to nothing. Is there a chance tonight,

the Montreal Canadians, go home up to nothing against Tampa Bay. The Philadelphia Flyers move. Yes, there definitely is a chance. I mean, it was a pretty evenly matched game last time. Goaltending definitely not as good as the Carolina Ottawa series, but I don't know, I can't find a piece of criticism from Montreal.

Why couldn't they? They're really good. They got a lot of good young players. And I like what seeing Louise said to this team about you can't dip your toe off the end of the dock. You got a cannon ball in. Just like our next guest. Full cannonball. into the real Kipper and Bourne show every Tuesday, 5 p.m. Eastern.

Let's go, boys. It's playoffs. There he is. How are your cannonballs lately? Pretty good. I'm coming in a little bit lighter. I lost a few pounds. I'm not on Ozempic. I'm not on Ozempic. But my friend John is, and he just texts me when he's going to eat.

And I just follow that. John says it's each time. Okay. Yeah, I don't need a prescription. I just see notifications. All right, Valley. Let's start breaking down your early thoughts around some goaltenders who maybe came in a little bit questionable. And Allmark was at the top of our list, I would think, on his past performances and what we've seen out of him so far, which to me suggests that he is the least of Ottawa's problems right now.

See, I don't agree. Oh. And I know, I just saw the pack. I saw the pack. I loved a lot of it. I really did. There was, you see, I don't agree.

I don't agree. And I'll tell you why. And this is why I wouldn't be able to do color on television. Because Allmark makes a save second period. I'm going to give you an example on Taylor Hall. If you remember, it comes from the boards across the ice. Taylor Hall has a one-timer. He makes a great save.

Pat save. It was a glove. and then pad and then he rolled over and it was the barrel roll save in the second period. Great save, great save. The pass coming from the wall. I've talked to you guys a lot about this. I'm on the ice in the summer, five hours a day. I have 16 goalies on this program.

We do that seam all the time because it's from the wall all the way across the ice to outside slot. That's where Taylor Hall takes the one timer from. Every goalie I coach can get across there on their feet. on this particular save and many of them the puck comes across the middle of the ice no screen on the pass he butterflies when the puck is coming through the slot that's why he's late

that's why he's got to recover flashy and make a save so I'm telling you that I couldn't commentate because everybody would be going nuts here on this save which you should it's a great save it's a highlight real looking save but to me there's critical error in that save which is why he has to

a scramble. I had this issue when I played with Henrik Kipper. Guys at the back of the bus, after the game, Valley, you know, he went right by his glove on that one and, you know, right by his blocker on that one, shouldn't Hank have had it? And I'd say, guys, the pass came

from below the goal line. It went to the dot. It went across the ice. And then it beat him around his blocker. Do you understand that he's always there? It goes through him because he's so positionally sound. It looks like he's getting beat by it, nine out of ten other goalies in this league right now, you'd say he had no chance.

Some goalies are so responsible, they almost look worse because the puck goes by them, versus having a goal that goes in because they're not there at all and not responsible. Allmark is the highest level of talent. I don't want to take that away from this guy. Breakaways, one-on-one individual saves. You saw some rebounds there that were in front of him, that he's acrobatic. He's got the highest level of skill and talent. But beware of the goalie that looks like a great goalie.

Do you guys remember the goal that was scored that was taken back, the Martinute goal? He didn't even try for that rebound. Did you notice that? He didn't even try for it. He determines when the puck leaves him whether he has a chance to get it or not. And more oftentimes than not, he doesn't even try for it if he doesn't believe he's going to get it. His battle and compete level is too low for me. He doesn't go for it.

Guys, when guys that I'm coaching don't go for it after a save, and they just give it the fake stick wave. The Ole. That's the OLA, that's a down and back. Right after the drills over, the guys know it. Because you can teach compete. He's the highest level of skill, but not the battle level and compete of like a Vlodar that we're seeing right now.

You want to see battle and compete. That's Dan Vladar, so it's more suited for the playoffs. The overtime goal, he was screened. There was a layered screening that was a broken play. But was there a lot of battle there? Was there a lot of fight for sight lines there? I didn't see it. I saw a guy giving in.

And, you know, furthermore, I know what that's like as a goalie. The coach comes up to you after the game. Hey, did you see it? No, I didn't see it. And that just relieves you of the goal. Again, that's a lack of responsibility as well. Yeah, I mean that So I think that's great color commentary

But I understand why other people don't want you to You know Oh, it's great depth Take the fun out of it But Freddie Anderson I wouldn't be able to do it, Barney I'd be awful Great save and you're like

Actually Actually Let me tell you Not a good save And I'll tell you why But then at the other end So like I've watched Freddy's only given up two goals In two games

But it feels like everything is going through him He's hitting the post he's getting a piece. What are your Freddie thoughts? My Freddie thoughts are consistent with my Freddie thoughts for the last 20 plus years. Look, I go back to knowing

Freddie. His agent told me before he became an NHLer. I have a goalie that's playing for Florelanda in the Swedish Elite League. He's 172 pounds, and he's breaking all of Lundquist records. And he told me all about this Danish goal that was playing in Frunda.

Years later, he comes to Anaheim. He's a stud off the bat. He had one of those great runs to start his career. Before he came to Toronto, one of his previous goalie coaches told me mentally, weakest athlete I've ever coached. This was an NHL goalie coach. And I'm telling you guys, that was never out of my mind.

I spoke to the Toronto coaches during that season. If you remember his first year, got off to a really bad start for the first couple months, settled in. And he's just so talented. Once again, he's so talented, so good at movement, depth, squareness. He just looks like a goalie, but he fades in critical moments, and that's when you lose a series. That's the difference between winning and losing a series. If I was, you know, to explain guys what your goalie is required to do during a playoff series to win.

Stop the high danger chances at league average level. Because those chances are so difficult, the passes that come across the ice, the two-on-ones, the break, takeaways. These are good chances against really good goalies, and they do have physical and technical limitations. They go in one every three times. That's what's going to happen during a series. At the end of the series, you never see a goalie steal a series compared to the other guy in high danger. What you see is a difference in mid-danger. Mid-Danger's chances, they go in one every six, one every six. And goalies that are performing at a high level are playing at better than a one every six. they're playing out a one every nine, one every 10. Those are the guys that win the series. What's really critical is you don't allow the low danger chances. Those are going in one every 38 shots. Freddie gave one up the other night from the half wall.

That could kill a series. Now, against Ottawa, it didn't bite him in the ass. But, you know, we've seen that for years in Toronto. He's so talented. But again, he has these moments where he fades mentally and gives up the one out of every 38 that you should never allow that kills a series. series.

Right. You're watching and listening to Steve Aliquette analyst for the New York Rangers on MSG, also CEO ClearSight Analytics. Okay. Tampa Bay and Montreal. Dobish, I thought, was excellent in game one. Really had a presence early, even though Montreal could muster much more than five or six shots going into the second period.

But I continue to watch Vasilevsky. And there's times when you can see the brilliant. and then there's other times and the overtime goal, not to take anything away from Slavkoski, but like I'm sitting there going, Valley, does Vasi like realize he's, he's giving up so much on the glove side?

Does he, did he lose his net? That just didn't seem like a Vassi goal to let in. Yeah, Kipper, I went on my little computer and you see this printout right here. Okay. These are, these are, these are tabs that you can select when you want to go deep into the valley.

What you can do here, Kepra, is you can go and find out left-handed shooter from that exact location on the ice, in offensive zone play, at five on four, and you can find out how many shots from there in the NHL have been taken this year where Slavkovsky scored the O.T. winner and how many were goals. Okay. So the one thing that I found out pretty quickly here is that lefties should never be able to score long side from the left dot. 354 shots came from that spot this year. 41 goals. So it's an 11.6% chance to score, which falls into mid-danger.

But what did I just finish saying about mid-danger? You need to overperform your mid-danger to win a playoff series when you're going up against another top goalie. So that goal kills. It's not low danger. It's not critically bad. It's bad enough when the margins are thin and you've got the top 16 number one goal he's playing. Now, the one thing I'm looking at, guys, when a goal like that goes in, which it shouldn't happen.

When you go alongside, I can tell you that when I was with the Edmonton Oilers, Pete Peters was my goalie coach, first guy that ever did this, old school, took ropes from the crossbar, brought it down to the puck. I'm on my stomach behind the puck getting perspective. Ty Conklin's in the net. And he says to me, where does the puck have to go if a lefty shoots it? Can it go far side valley? And I'm on my stomach, right, guys? The puck can't go far side unless two things happen. You're brutal off angle, which was the case for Vasilevsky, and you go down early because it went over his glove.

The rope that went through to the puck, it went by Ty Conklin's knee. Like his left knee was where the rope was. If you're standing at the top of the crease, you can't go high glove. It's an impossible shot unless you make two mistakes positionally. And if I'm explaining goal tending to somebody for the first time, you have to understand that you need positioning. To get positioning, you need angle, depth, squareness, timing, and movement. To get scored on from there, you need two of those things to go critically wrong. And in that case, it was angle and timing.

And Vasilevsky, you know, Boner, you sent me a text before we got on here. I was listening to Simmer yesterday with his record and on your show. And, you know, it's what I'm seeing, too, fellas. It's a different guy now. And I don't know if it's physically or what's going on with him. But even on all the shots from the point this year, guys, he had the fourth worst safe percentage on net front. and what do we see that is critical to success in the postseason, having a successful net front coverage defensively,

clearing rebounds, broken plays, but having a goalie that can save them. Yeah. The playoffs are fascinating for me this year, Valley, because there's big names, but then there's some guys we're not really sure what to expect. You know, Buffalo goes and gets a win with Ukopeca Luchanan.

You know, is he going to be able to outplay Jeremy Swayman over a seven-game series? it seemed to be one of the places where Boston would have an edge going into things. I agree. I agree. Now, that game won was just amazing, wasn't it? Just the swings, the third periods, one of the better third periods I've ever seen. Ouka Pekalukinen, what I see with him is just a young goalie. He doesn't, no, he's had the results.

And this is where people are going to, you know, come after me on Twitter. That's okay. But, you know, he moves too much. NHL goalies that are the top guys, they move less, and they move less distance. When traffic comes to the net, watch UPL, he'll shrink back into his net and think that he's creating more time to be reactionary. And it's a very forgiving sport when you give your net back, unforgiving, I should say. And what I've seen from him is there's just too much movement when it's not necessary.

The goals against are usually chasing out of the post, and his stance can get too low for a guy that's six, four. He gets very low and wide. I don't see him having the same success that a top goal he would need and is required to play with to get through this thing. Could he get through Boston, maybe? But I still see Boston beating Buffalo in this first round. Swayman, for whatever reason, he had that moment that sometimes we can get.

it's a paralysis when the wave comes. And like I could tell you guys, the last goal I ever allowed in the NHL, Sidney Crosby scored on it, scored on me. He could have shot anywhere. It was going in. Like I was, I was, I was, I mean, where are you when I played? No.

Yeah. No, I'm telling you guys, like mentally where I was on that final shot, the game wasn't going well. It was getting away from me. I just, Sid scored on a two on one. And I have to go when I was like, man, he could have shot anywhere. Like that was, and I felt like, That's where Swamen went mentally on that go-ahead goal for Buffalo.

He was down once early on the way across. He stayed down. He was up and down twice before the shot. He just looked like he had that deer in the headlights luck that you have when the wave of offense is just killing you. Valley, when you consider how Jake Ottinger, Pete DeBore left and pulled Jake Ottinger against Edmonton, and then he comes back and he gets lit up and get,

game one against Minnesota. Is there a goalie that needed a win more than Jake Ottinger last night? Agreed. Agreed. And I still will stand by what I stood by last year before we went into the playoffs, which is Jake, for me, still doesn't quite have his best stuff. I see a very talented goalie there that just doesn't have the posture and form that's required and patience through the release because of the.

level of chances we're seeing in the NHL right now that are two things. The way that players are able to show false information before passing the puck, it makes you double clutch and lose your form from your stance. That's where I see him have the most issue. The second thing is a lot of players right now have the freedom to pass out of high danger chances. Now I'll explain what that is. It is a player receiving a puck with time and space in the slot. He should shoot that 10 times out of 10. Now, 10 and 15 years ago, you're asking it's stapled to the bench if you don't shoot that puck.

And guys now are passing out of that. So we have a stat for that. It's passing out of high danger. And, you know, it's, again, one of those enhancers like time and space. But it's those critical moments where you're trying to get a read. You're trying to hold your feet. You're trying to keep timing. Again, you're trying to capture positioning.

But then there's just more in the NHL than we've ever seen. and that's why it's so hard to play goal and save percentages down. We're just seeing better quality. One thing that I've seen in all these games, guys, is that everybody's hitting the secret sauce of scoring chances. It's like seven or more high danger with 12 or fewer low danger. Look at the games we're seeing every night.

The shot totals are so low. And out of the 11 games we've seen so far, eight of them have been won by teams that have had more high danger chances all the time while shooting 12 and fewer low danger. It's just it's the secret sauce of shot quality. And furthermore, I want you guys to think about this because it's really on my radar right now. As a company with ClearSight, we have 42 different shot types that we categorize. All year long, we've done this for 12 years now.

We get over 73,000 shots a season. Now, we're hearing a lot about slot shots, as if that's where the quality is. well, I want to tell you that out of the 42 shot types that we categorize guys, 30 of them can come from the slot. And they range from 5.8% chance to score up to 52% chance to score. So if you're trying to say that this team is getting more than the other team with slot area shots, there's not enough context there to arrive at this is why this team won or lost. slot area to me, guys. It's like the new coursey.

Interesting. That's a great perspective. You know, I think that probably relates somewhat to a question I want to ask you is not playoff related. Different season from Connor Hellebuck. We had a press conference recently and so this is less of a technical review. But more of your thoughts. I don't know if you heard what Hellebuck said, but you know, it basically was like, you got to get it together here. You know, I know it's hard in Winnipeg and he seemed a little, I don't

giving them a push to move things in that direction. What are your thoughts on sort of the crossroads he's at there with the Jets? Well, I think it's the sport, Borny. I think the players have never had more control than ever before. And unless you're a coach or a manager that wants to move into a partnership with your star players, and in that partnership, include them on some decisions so they feel a part of it, as in, all right, Connor, you know, here's what we're going to do. We're going to bring in this guy and this guy because our D was small last year.

The shot quality that Connor Hellabuck faced last year, guys, it went up tenfold from the year before. The year before, when you won Vezan and MVP, they had the best shot quality team in the league, best environment. One of the bottom three environments this year. So Connor Hellabuck certainly felt it. It reflected his own safe percentage. It reflected his expected goals. It reflected the goals that were scored over his glove because there's more time and space. And that's one of the biggest enhancers we see.

I looked at that a lot this week because I was looking at Dustin Wolf, very. similar issue there for him in Calgary as Hellebuck had in Winnipeg, which is when players in the NHL right now have time and space, especially when it's a high danger chance, it's like giving them an extra 20% chance to score on some of these scoring chances. And that has to be factored into the shock quality. And some goalies are just playing in a horrifically bad environment. I can imagine Helibuck felt that this year, even if he didn't know it statistically, and he's saying to himself, you know what, if we're not going to clean it up and I'm not going to have a chance to win, I don't know if I want to be here and be a part of this.

But, you know, he's, look, we know who he is and what he can do and what he's capable of. But for what it's worth, you know, Connor Hellbuck hasn't won them a lot of playoff series either. Two guys that haven't won a lot either, Dobish in Montreal, Ingram in Edmonton, just your overall thoughts of their first real taste of being the man. You know, I thought that Dobish got off to a great start. One of the biggest saves he made was really early on in the first period against Chernak, where he just stepped out and took, yeah, you remember that one? So, you know what he's doing there, Kipper is he's giving you a different look?

You can pre-scout me all you want, but if you think you're going to come down the middle on me with time and space as Chernak did there, I'm going to turn this into a breakaway. That's what he did there. That was smart. He just jumped up, got in his face. Now, breakaways this year in the NHL, they scored at 31.8%. That was up 3.5% from last year. Breakaways went up this year. They were going in a lot more frequently.

So goalies were stopping breakaways at 68% of the time. And I saw him recognize what oftentimes I say to the goalies that I'm working with guys, which is if you're in a team practice setting and players are just going to step to the middle and take a shot when the coach says on first drill the shoot from the wing, step out and play it like a breakaway. Get some breakaway ice, back up with him, take away the shot. And I think that that look

was a good example of what came after for Dobish. Everything he did as far as his reads, and if I was, again, working with a young goalie, that's what I would explain that play on Chernak as. That's a read. He made the right read just about every time in this game. And to compare him to UPL, again, I felt like UPL was making the wrong reads,

but you can still be successful making the wrong reads, just not over the long haul. And I can see Dobish, if he could play his game two, the way he played game one, he's got something here. He's got the look. He's got the composure.

He's got the compete. He's going for everything. So are we doing... Ingram? Ingram. Oh, Ingram. Ingram, I think, as well, guys, right now that one thing

I went to the past with him. Three years ago, before he went through his stuff, he was one of the top 10 goalies in the league when he was with Arizona at the time. I think that Edmonton recognized the talent there, and what he's doing is he's not allowing the bad goal, and he's not allowing the mid-danger goal more than he should. He's not stopping more than he should as far as the high danger,

but he's actually settled at two goals better than league average coming into this playoff. So he's the 25th ranked goalie in expected goals. But you probably line that up with anti-Niami winning a Stanley Cup, Aidan Hill winning a Stanley Cup. You know, you can go through at least four or five examples of teams being able to win with goaltending like that that doesn't hurt you. Again, goaltending that hurts you in the playoffs. it's the low danger goals.

Those are the ones that sink the bench and be better than mid-danger at an average. All right. Are we doing a playoff grill marks? Well, I think what we're doing here, fellas, is we're going to keep it going. Okay. Unless, right?

Because unless Borny, you could actually play your phone. No one wants a president's trophy. First of all. Season, I'm done. I was low managing before playoffs. Knowing that you and Borny text each other, before whatever happens. I'm protesting this whole season.

I'm good to do it anyway. These guys want to do it. All right. Let's let it rip. I think let's let it rip. All right. I want to talk about a few things in this segment that matter to success in the playoffs. There's going to be three teams on these three lists that I'm

going to give you. And these are all contending teams because they had really good regular seasons. And these are three key statistics that I think if you weight them properly, they would shed light on a successful team. The first one, it's high danger differential at 5V5 off the rush. So differential guys, what you have four off the rush, what you allow against, and in that difference, these are the three best teams.

Tampa Bay, Colorado, Vegas. I'm going to say Vegas. Yeah, I'll say Vegas too. I'm just going to take Colorado. They're good. They're a good team. McKee, Colorado. Yeah.

Duh. Really? A couple of bozos. Yeah, I mean, I think a Rhodes Scholar to figure that one out, boys. You weren't exactly jumping in the Q to get your answer out there. Oh, you know what? I want to give this one to you, McKee. So this one hurt.

I was going through my notes today. I was cleaning out my desk here. When we're talking about how important off the rush is in the postseason, defending. You should also, you should also be successful on your breakaways when you get them because they're hard to come by. Toronto Maple Leafs in the 21, 22, 22, 22, 23 playoffs, 14 breakaways, two goals, 23, 24 playoffs, eight goals, or excuse me, eight breakaways, two goals, last year's playoffs, 18 breakaways, three goals. Can you explain to me why the Leafs? 18, 18. 18. Great finish boys.

I bet you Willie had 14 of them and tucked one. David Camp scored one of those breakaways in one of those years. He did. Yeah, on Bassie. Well, what is it that we're not scoring on our breakaways? Is there too much pressure? What's the deal, McKee? Got to go back in. Top corner works every time.

Okay. We'll figure that out on another seven. In his men's league. Best team in high danger differential. Now, again, I said earlier, guys, the good teams, they're winning when they win the high danger battle. In fact, if you have half, and expected goals more than your opponent, you're winning 74% of the time.

That's how important chances are. Okay. Best team in high danger differential in the regular season, Tampa Bay, Ottawa, Colorado. Oh, go Ottawa. God, are we overthinking this? Am I going to get yelled at by McKee again? I'm going Colorado. Yeah, I think I am too.

Oh, you guys are going to kill. Colorado. Yeah, duh. It sucks. I'm not going first. Wow, what a thing. Third question, Colorado. Best team in unsettled differential.

We've talked about this a lot on your show. Unsettled. It's the 50-50 puck wins, four checking, back check, giveaways, takeaways. So the best team in unsettled differential at 5-on-5, Vegas, Colorado, Dallas. He's going for the trick. I'm going Colorado.

I just will feel like a fool if I don't. We're all picking Colorado. I picked it before you asked. Colorado! Oh, you sneaky S-O-B. Who do you guys think I'm picking in my Stanley Cup? I think we all are now.

I wish we'd had this conversation earlier. That's too good. Three for three today. I got some points. I was saving it for playoffs, boys. Great stuff as always, Valley. Great job, buddy. All right, boys.

Thanks, Valley. Love it. See you next week, buddy. That is the very, very smart, Steve Allicat. I sent, Colorado. I sent Valley a board that they're going to put in the game tonight. Playoffs at home for Andre Vasselowski since June 22nd. Record 1 in 10.

Oh. At home. Something's going on with him. 8% of 868. Let's do game time. Let me find my sheet. There we go. It's game.

Same time, present my bet 365, an official partner of the NHL, bus minute team plus Ontario only. Please play responsibly. I was looking through the futures there where you guys were talking to Valley. And one of the ones I love on here is the exact finals forecast. So you can bet on what, so for example, your final that you had was Colorado beating Carolina. Let me find that for you. That number.

It's looking okay right now, Carolina. All right. Still a good number is plus 900 on that, which is pretty good there. I'm sure he would have got a little better number if he had a bet it before the two nothing lead. Kipper, what did you say? Do you remember?

Ottawa, Mini. Mini to beat Ottawa. I could find that for you. That is plus 20,000. So 2,000 to 1, right? Is that right? Yeah, plus 20,000. So that's a big long one.

Ottawa needs four out of five. And I had Edmonton to beat, which is better odds plus 175,000. All right. So some interesting stuff there. You can probably find some value if you dig through there, but I love that one on Bet365. Anyways, that was Game Time presented by Bet365.

An official partner of NHL was going to team plus. And Tara only, please play responsibly. Okay, take a quick break. Sammy, are we good? Yeah. Take a break. More cliffs are going to talk. I went and listened to Sunny Mata while you guys were talking to Valley there.

and I got a banger of a clip. Nice. It's a long one, but we're going to play it and we're going to talk about it. Also for our Sports Net 650 in Vancouver, the sights and sounds of Kevin Adams potentially being talked about. Don't listen to Petey in our first hour.

In Vancouver. We'll get our thoughts out on that as well. Plenty more when we return to Real Kipper and Bourne. Dive deep into Toronto Sports and the NFL. The J.D. Bunkus podcast. Subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to the program.

Nick Caprio's Justin Bourne. Sammy McKee. All right, Sammy. Time now for the Accura Performance Matchup, the 26 Accura MDX, precisely premium. Tampa Bay Lightning versus Montreal Canadiens tonight, game two on CBC and Sportsnet.

Yeah. What was that stat you gave about the Lightning, losing or Vasilexki losing? Last 11 home games he's played is 1 in 10. That is unbelievable. Yeah. 608? And I believe Tampa Bay has lost their last five game two.

Ooh. Okay, that's really bad. So a couple of other things I dug up for this game tonight. Slav Kosky is the third youngest player in franchise history to record a hat trick. And he became just a third player in franchise history to complete a hat trick with an overtime goal. Eric Desjardin did it in 1993 and Gary Plamadon in 1949. Oh, who could forget the plumber? Plomsy.

Ploms are used to rip a man. A hell of a series. The Canadians have an all-time winning percentage of 6.56 in game two during a best of seven series, 82 and 43. The only team in NHHL history with a better winning percentage in game two of a best of seven series is the Columbus Blue Jacket. Oh, my God. Five and two.

with a 7-14 winning percentage. Right. So the Lightning lost their seventh straight playoff overtime game. dating back to game one of the 2020 Stanley Cup final. I was trying to dig up if that's a record. That's got to be close to a record.

And I think it's worse. I guess like 1 and 12 over 13. Like they're on a bad run. Seven straight's tough. And the Canadians, they improved to 8 and 2 in overtime playoff games since 2020. That's really good. They're the Cardiac Kids this year.

Everything late overtime. Yeah. Goes to Gary Pee. Flamadon is doing his thing for him. He's hot in the bolts. Anyways, that was the Accura Performance Matchup, the 2026 Accura MDX, precisely, premium.

Slavkowski, I think, just turned 22. Like, he's not, he's not even, he's a mule. He's not even finished growing yet. He could be. No.

No, no, no, no. He still, he still got ways to go here. And he, he plays at about 2.20. 25 right now. Yeah. And by the time he's done, he could be playing at around 235, 240. Yeah.

And skate like that. Do you guys want to hear classic Cooper downplay? By the way, he turned 22 like a couple weeks ago. Jesus. Like I said, he's still growing. Yeah. And he's under contract until he's 45 for 10 bucks a year. Yeah.

Derek, let's do, this is, they asked him about how do you, contain Slevkowski. This is the most vintage Cooper. Clip two, please. Slavkovs, he obviously had a big impact there in game one. Is there any kind of magic formula what you can do to try to prevent him from having such a big impact in game two? Well, he had a big impact.

Their power play had a big impact. And he was the guy that was, you know, that finished. So I think that's the way we have to look at it. I don't think we're zeroing in on one guy. they've got a bunch of guys that can burn you out there. He was just the one that, you know, was finishing those plays. So, you know, we're looking at it from a bigger picture on our penalty kill being better. Yeah, I just think of them as a power.

He's a powerful specialist. Power play specialist. I have expected to be like, yeah, what, do you have 70 points this year for me? We're worried about it. I love that. I mean, the thing is, when you've heard a coach, when you've heard a coach for so long, and you just learn the. And it's like, that's vintage Cooper.

Like, don't even, Marty, don't even play in five on five now. Just save him for the power play. And you know what? It's not even him. He's just on the tail end of what they do. We're just worried about the penalty kill. So, so funny. I teased it before the women to break.

Sunny Mehta was introduced today to the media in New Jersey. And boy, the questions, welcome home. You rocked us, the starter jacket you wore it 12 years old. It was a, yeah, they were preaching at the choir. of Sonny Mata. They were really loving it. But there was somebody who asked about the analytics and playing it sort of, you know,

how it works and meshing it with the hockey stuff. This is a longer answer, but it's fascinating. It's a minute and 45 second clip. Derek, I think it's clip one, Sunny Mata on analytics. Great question. I'm actually glad you wrote up the analytics thing, the A word. So I totally understand why I get kind of put in that, analytics bucket labeled as the analytics guy.

But it's really funny. I think if you actually look at my path, my background, even my own path to analytics is considerably different than the typical analytics person in sports in the sense that, you know, I never really ever set out to be an academia or be a mathematician or anything like that. I personally, you know, even though I ultimately kind of went back and got a master's in data science just to fill in gaps or whatever,

but truly where I learned statistics was on the job, like at the poker table, on the trading floor, and in the hockey front offices. And to me, the reason that I ever even cared about analytics, statistics, probability is because it helped me win in poker. It helped me win on the trading floor, and it's helped me win in hockey. And so that's why I care about it.

And the blending is, of course, that's important. You know, in the same way that in poker, it's not just numbers. You have to have a feel for your opponent. You have to understand the subjectivity of bluffing. You have to understand the psychology. And the same thing was true in trading, right? You have to have a feel for markets. You have to understand sort of like how news affects things and subjectivity,

human emotion affects things. And of course it's the same. You know, of course it's the same. Yes, data does undoubtedly give a huge advantage in hockey. in terms of projecting future performance of players. But you have to understand all those same things. The character, the locker room, the culture, the intangibles, all that stuff matters. So I find that fascinating.

Me too. I do. Me too. Wants to win. Well, just, I would have followed it up with like, okay, can you give me a couple examples? You've won the Stanley Cup the last two years. Give me the probability and the examples of all of that with a couple of decisions that you made in Florida.

But I don't think anybody followed up like that. I mean, I think, I don't know if this is a hot take or whatever, or just an easy thing to say. I feel like it's either going to be an incredible success or a 10 and a 10 failure after listening to that. Like poker, we're talking poker, we're talking. But you're not winning all the hands. We're talking trading.

We're not going to win all the trades and you're not going to, right? I do think, you know, if you look at any, GM's track record. Even the ones that if I said, who's your favorite GM? There's a half a dozen trades in there that are no good. Very bad. That is part of playing the best. So, you know, we covered a draft class for Tanner Geno. We cover the Toronto Maple Leafs. And it's my understanding that there was a few trades in the past that were very data

centric. And I think Kyle Dubis went on spitting chicklets or somewhere where he talked about maybe one of the worst ones, one of the worst trades. and he mentioned Mason Marchment for Malgan. Malgan. Which I think was kind of driven with the probabilities and the data. And that's no what he said. Peter, Peter the goalie, Mazarek.

Maser. Marazik. Marazik. Why did I? Right? I don't know. He should be. Why did I go old guy?

Oh, was that? Peter Marzic. Data driven. And like, so, I mean, there's, there's misses. There's no question. there's misses. Yeah, and just the same there's misses the other way. You know, like it's, this is the thing.

It's like, I think that's the only answer he can give is that, you know, we're trying to figure it out. Get all the answers we can and all the information we can and just make information, you know, decisions based on information. He had a quote in there. Someone asked him about what would you describe your playing, poker playing style as and how will that translate as a GM? I don't know if we have that. I don't have that. Sorry.

But he, no, that's fine. And he just answered that, you know, they call it tight and aggressive, that you don't play all the hands, you know, that you kind of wait for the good cards and don't play when you don't have anything sort of thing. And when it is time to go, you go hard. And I think that's kind of a healthy way to go at general managing and trading. I love poker. That's awesome.

I love poker. I could watch poker when it's ever it's on sports. And I just, I put it on. Oh, really? I love watching it. Yeah, I love it. I never seen Sonny Maida. A lot of people in my age, I had like a run with it.

Oh, yeah. Is he like one of those guys that we could watch? on TV too sunny. I have two books about it, so I assume so. I don't know. Like, I made you text Daniel Negrano about him because, and then I felt like we kind of made

you text Sidney Crosby about a beer leaguer maybe. Like, I don't really know. I don't know. I've never heard of it. He doesn't make it at the high roller table at the wind once in a while. I don't know. I just, it's been fascinating.

So did he take Jack Hughes out after or did they have a meeting? We got a clip. Clip two on talking with Jack Hughes. He's, uh, He's an intense dude, man. We met for coffee a couple days ago, and I want to say, like, the first 20 minutes, he just hammered me with poker questions.

And I was not expecting that. Listen, what else can be said? Fantastic talent. He absolutely fits that criteria or that mold of what I'm talking about, where I see the development. There are, in my opinion, I saw a lot of this when I went to Florida. like we had players of that ilk that kind of hit that part of the age curve 2425 where I'm just extremely excited to see what the sort of upcoming years are going to look like for Jack because I'm really bullish. Yeah, he's going to have to, yeah, he's going to have to be on a pretty, I don't know if he needs a tight ship around him, but like Jack's going into a year here where he needs. needs to go next level stuff here.

Yeah. There's a lot of talk that he'd be a... You know, and there's times when I think there's a maturity thing going on with Jack, too, and that whole thing about him getting hurt and how he got hurt and how much time he spent away from the team. And, you know, and that's what Sonny's going to have to kind of stay on top of. Oh, go ahead. Just, like, you know, maybe less discussions about poker and more on how to win.

Yeah, he, it's fascinating. Like as there's more guys with an analytics background who do this, and, you know, certainly more names are coming to the four. Is it Tim Barnes, I think is one of them? You know, there's other just names of people who have been through this that will be GMs, and not everyone could win. You know, do you like where the devils are starting at? Like, do you think if you handed it to Doug Armstrong,

would you like where the devils were headed next year? I thought devils would be a lot. in the playoffs this year. I think they were, when we were doing those early bet, 365, they were one of the Stanley Cup favorites at the start of the year. So where do you think they are with Keith? Yeah, that's unclear.

It sounds like evaluation. He kind of said we're evaluating. We're still evaluating everyone. Yeah. That sort of. I think they keep them. You think so? Yep.

Yeah, I mean. He's a good coach. Yeah, I think he's a good coach. One thing I do know, right, is he's willing to listen. He's worked with Kyle. willing to try. I think the two coaches that could stick around are Keefe. Don't say it.

I will say it, my friend. Don't say it, man. Yeah, Craig Bruby. Why? I'll tell you why. Because they don't want to spend the money on a new coach? No, no, no, no. Because they were, oh, it's because they were gas in every category.

No. No. Okay. Because they're brand new general managers and you don't want to come in right away and hang your hat on a guy that's yours. But then you're immediately doing the thing where you're prioritizing your own life. Yes. That's what they do.

Right. For sure. They do. They do. Right. A hundred percent. Their first thing to come in is to watch your back. And that's always been the problem.

Let's see what they have here. Let's see what we have. I think Matthews would be really upset. They'll keep Keefe and they'll keep Berubei and reevaluate a Christmas. If you got to make a change then, no problem. When you have to trade Matthews and fire Barrow. But that might be inevitable anyways. Reminder, this hour of Real Kippurborn is brought to you by Bet365.

Quick word on Porter Morton. Porter Martone. Yes. You were tweeting that he's going to be on Team Canada's to come. I do think so. Nice. I adore the kid. It's a good player.

It's a good player. It's my Babcock. Good player. The best thing about him is the fact that he's just really annoying. That's not even remotely the best thing. but it's a great Canadian perk for a guy that gets under people's skin. How about some, like, no fear. Little love for Rick Tocke and the job he's doing.

Totally. I did mention before Kevin Adams, of course, if you didn't listen to Andrew Peters, not very supportive of his work over the years in Buffalo, but your thoughts of maybe Vancouver taking a look at him. I mean, it's tough for me to look at what happens. happen in Buffalo and be like Kevin Adams great handiwork like Kevin when Kevin Adams took over they had Dahlene they had Tage Thompson he was there you know like I don't know that I look at it and go they are where they are

because of the work he did so I wouldn't say he handled the media awesome not I was so not thrilled but I mean I think I think now that Alvin's gone you have to show a level of kind of respect for the process and he might be included in that, but I don't get the sense they're going to go with Kevin Adams. No. Okay. I think some Vancouver fans would probably like that. All right.

Our thanks to Andrew Peters. It's covering the Buffalo Sabres as they go head-to-head tonight with the Boston Bruins. Big night. Steve Aliquette, of course, on our Tuesdays. If you're just joining us, give it a download, man. is always worth the listen.

Four games on tap. Find your game on Sportsnet. Enjoy your night. If you got a chance, give us a rating and review you. We'd love to hear from you. Go, Jays, go.