Real Kyper & Bourne - Vally's View: Winning Numbers for the Stanley Cup

Episode Date: May 13, 2025

Steve Valiquette – analyst for the New York Rangers on MSG and CEO of Clear Sight Analytics joins Nick Kypreos and Justin Bourne (5:17) for his weekly chat to break down the save percentages from goaltenders in the playoffs and what it could mean for a future Stanley Cup winner, why there shouldn't be indecisions off the rush at this stage of the season, Connor Hellebuyck's continuing struggles on the road, and how he sees Sergei Bobrovsky in his series against the Maple Leafs so far. Then, Nick, Justin and Sam McKee discuss the LA Kings' plan to name Ken Holland GM, Lou Lamoriello's next move in his career and Miro Heiskanen's return for the Stars.The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Sports & Media or any affiliates.

It is the national hour on the Real Kipper and Bourne show. We are live on Sportsnet 650 in Vancouver and Sportsnet 960 in Calgary. This hour of Real Kipper and Bourne brought to you by Bet365, Nick Kipriels, Justin Bourne, Sammy McKee in a couple of minutes, Steve Valiquette, analyst with the New York Rangers on MSG, CEO of ClearSight Analytics will join us on his Tuesday segment. Got to start with Stuart Skinner. Three-nothing win for the Edmonton Oilers last night over Vegas. A very convincing three-nothing win. I don't know if it was it impressive, JB, of just the complete hockey game or just Skinner's

performance, particularly in game fours, where Sammy... He's red hot. The numbers are off the charts here. He's 5-0, 1.32, and a save percentage of 9.53 in game fours. Not quite Justin Williams, Mr. Game 7, but he's Mr. Game Four. I will say, I will like to pat myself on the back going into the playoffs. I said, if the Oilers can play deep enough into this thing to get Evander Kane his feet underneath them, to get Trent Frederick comfortable in the lineup, they're going to be tough to

beat and this game changing for them. They suddenly are tough. They're falling on the goalie They're you know, they're all over the opposing crease. They're gonna get if they win this round looks good. They're gonna get at Colen back It's really tough to sit here and not say they look like cup favorite It was a statement game not only just to Vegas. I think to anybody else that's watching It was from the jump in that game. It was like, oh, they're just better They're better you guys kind of gave me a little bit of flack for calling Washington, Carolina boring yesterday So wait, yeah, I did I did way I did you did you do like oh come on?

Yeah, we did you're both like oh come on. I must have been humoring someone because it's anyways I watched the third period of Carolina, Washington Yeah, and I hard to compare Mike and then I like watched the first Fighting people Frederick and Hagrid going at it. You got Adam Henrik doing like on these other guys are fighting From the teacup to space mountain It was amazing. Yeah, it was an amazing first period that's a tweet You know why watch playoff hockey? Yes, nor cocaine to ride a helicopter out of a motorcycle I just I

Hag is a big big guy was not was like we're fighting like a Hey, Hag is a big big guy was not was like we're fighting like a Frederick also took a couple of little he's sneaky mighty mouse punches from him before it opened up Yeah, is that first fight of the playoffs like the first? I know that there was no fights. I want to say the first round Trying to think Frederick by the way gets sorted out in that fight and does just fine Yeah hangs in there, but yeah, Hag's a big boy. That's... I just, I loved the Oilers last night. I thought they're so impressive. They're just getting depth goals.

They're playing good defense. Like they're not even their best guy. And it's crazy. It's almost as if now you got still, you got the bullets in the chamber that, and McDavid and Dreisait still that can can have that. They're going to have a couple of games every series where they're just better than everyone and they win.

And then exactly. And they haven't really had that yet. They've been good. Don't get me wrong. It hasn't been needed every night. Just the stress factor of not having to be those guys all the time and watching four or five guys around you score what now five six seven points to the playoffs you know what's funny

is the other team and Jets fans cover your ears the other team that's finding it is Dallas Stars get Miro Heiskenen back and all of a sudden Robertson's back and they're finding their footing and Miko Rantan has suddenly become the guy that everyone thought he was in Colorado. Like you can see these two collision course. Yeah. These two just absolute giants headed straight for each other. And listen, I am unapologetically rooting for the Winnipeg Jets totally agree to win that series. I'll be open about that. But it's really tough to see anything but Dallas Edmonton headed straight for each other right now. So some big, big work ahead for Vegas and for Winnipeg. Repeat conference final.

But for last year, yeah. Yep. Big work for Steve Valakett to still explain to us Winnipeg, Connor Hattelbeck, Homer on the road. I don't think I've ever seen that before. You know what it reminds me of is the Stanley Cup final Vancouver Boston where Vancouver would eke out a win at home Then they go to Boston just get filled in eight nothing. Yeah, go home and eke out a win I don't know that that means you're the better team when that happens, but they're trying they need Connor to be a bit better

The numbers I put in the numbers here Hella buck in his last eight playoff road games. 08 0 and 8 5 8 3 8 27. Kriminy. Oh, yeah. Oh, and eight. From our beloved sports net stats. So got to trust them. All right. As I just mentioned, someone way smarter than us who can explain all of this is joining us. Steve Alliquette. How are you, my friend? Very good, buddy. Steve Alliquette, how are you my friend? Very good buddy, I've got a lot of information

in my small computer. I think that's the way that you put it once Kipper. Good, we're glad because we got to explain all of this. So let's start with the effort from Stuart Skinner last night. And it helps I think getting thrown back in. It wasn't a coach's decision other than the fact that Calvin Pickard was not available. It was a wonderful opportunity to get back in there.

I don't know if anybody expected a shutout, but maybe we should have based on his history of game fours. Give us your overall thoughts of Skinner last night and the ability to make believers out of a lot of people again. So small picture, I thought it was an excellent performance. I thought that he didn't move a lot and I thought that he was playing deeper in his crease than he was in the previous game. So that's the key when you don't move really well, you have to

find a way to move less and I'm actually an expert at that because I got 10 tapes from Sean Burke from my goalie coach Benoit Allaire once upon a time during the 0405 lockout and he said to me in no uncertain terms. You don't move well enough to play in the NHL you have to move shorter distances like Sean Burke does find out how he plays here's the VHS tape and what I did guys was I took those tapes and I went to the West Farms mall in Hartford and it was when Apple just was

in its infancy I I got a converter. I was able to get that VHS tape into Final Cut, learned how to edit. And Borny, did I ever get ripped by my teammates? Oh, what are you doing, Valley? Going to the Genius Bar, learning how to do some more video? You're like, yeah.

It's going to make me rich one day, you idiot. You're all over me. So really, guys, I copied where he was standing off the rush. I focused on where his depth was when he was taking shots from the outside, odd mans etc. The one thing I learned from Benoit Lairt too was that if you can stop pucks playing deep with confidence and practice when players have time and space you can do it and playing deep with confidence and practice when players have time and space, you can do it and give yourself permission to do it in games.

That's what I saw from Skinner last night. I thought that he played deeper, bigger, quieter. That's the way that he has to play. It really got me thinking though, can the Edmonton Oilers do something that no team has done in the last 20 years? And that's win with a goalie with a save percentage at 880. Because that's what we're looking at. And I'll tell you what I did, fellas, today. I went back and looked at all the championship save percentages over the years. And I think some of these will surprise you because they're higher than you may remember them. All right, so I went back, all the way back,

to Auntie Niemie when he won with the Chicago Blackhawks. You know, he didn't win with an 880, he won with a 910. And Tim Thomas and John Quick in the next two years were 940 and 946 save percentages. Those were the big, like that's when we used to say, goaltending wins cups. Those guys stole those two cups those two years Crawford in the next year was a 932 and quick was a 911 Crawford again with a 924 So these are big numbers

Going forward with Matt Murray your number three right now, and he was a 923 and he was a 937 All right your number three right now and he was a 923 and he was a 937 all right? Hopi was a 922, Binner was a 914, Vasilevsky was a 937 and a 927. Kemper is the only outlier that I was able to find. Okay. He's a 902. He was a 902 and you you guys remember he was shaky in and out didn't carry the load had some blowout games That was the one cup that I remember over this last You know 15 years of modern hockey where I'm kind of like I'm not so sure about that one Aden Hill was a 932 save percentage So, you know you're looking at the big picture here and I'm kind of saying to myself

Can you win with 880 goaltending and I don't we haven't seen it so we haven't seen it so many things have changed including attitudes toward goaltenders and we waited forever for Carolina to go get a star goalie and they they didn't get one I think the main reason is they don't think they need one and they can win this way so you know what's that old saying? You know, like 50 is the new 40 when people are getting old. So is is 880 the new nine? Is it you know, is it like, can you win? Can you win at 890? See, I don't I don't see it. I don't see it because Edmonton is still giving up far too much off the rush. And I went a little bit deeper.

Okay. I went scuba Steve for this one. Goals scored at five on five so far this year in the playoffs. Off the rush account for 39% of all the goals scored at five on five so far in the postseason Off the rush matters. I bring this up a lot over the four years. We've been doing this together guys It's a predictor You must have a goalie that can stop the puck off the rush and you must be a team that knows how to cover off the rush Specifically odd man rush so it's 39% of all the goals scored off the rush.

Offensive zone play is 30% of all the goals scored at five on five. Off the four check, it's 14% of all goals. Giveaways, takeaways, 12%. Off face-offs, 4%. And that's off of 252 goals that we've seen so far in the postseason at five on five. But 70% of all the goals are

scored at five on five. So to me it matters when we're talking about 40% of the goals being scored are off the rush that you have an off the rush goalie. And some things give me a bit of pause here because I was looking at Joseph Wall and you know I started by looking at the two on one goal that Bennett scored the other night. Yeah. And I don't know how you guys feel, but I always wanted the defenseman that was back

covering the two on one to absorb the two on one and I wanted the back checker to take the weak side man. And I wanted that because it gave me a clear defined read on the play. Now I went back and looked at all of Joseph Walls off the rush play and I was surprised and not surprised in a good way. This is the one place he's weak in his game. He's got a rating of 40th out of 44 qualifying goalies on two on ones over the last two years in the regular season Well, this was 46 two on ones faced and he had a rating of 40th out of 44 goalies with a minimum of 40 two on ones faced. So you watched a lot of these?

Yeah, and you know what I saw? Yeah, what did you see? Blocker shots a lot of little blocker shots and and I think there wasn't a trust there and I you know when you look at the regular season what is it? It's to build up trust. Now McCabe is coming back and you've got Tanev playing it. And he still chose to play the same guy that Tanev had. Do you see the look Tanev kind of gave him after that one? Yeah, because Tana was pointing to him, right? He was trying he was pointing to him. He won't. Yeah. And he wanted him to take him. March 22. I don't know why my psycho brain remembers this,

but it was against the Nashville Predators. And they gave up another one same two guys when they were on the ice high glove on a wall at that point. But when I was looking through the video, I could see that this should have been something that everybody is clear on at this stage of the game. So off the rush, we should have clear, concise expectations for goalie and for players. And to me, there's still some indecision there

and there shouldn't be a conflict at all on what Everybody's role is when you're defending an odd man rush It's a it's a great a plus scoring opportunity a game and it was a swing moment in that game That's interesting Valley. I know we're gonna get to different goaltenders Hellebuck included, but I did want to ask you generally during the playoffs Have you come across anything that shows that there's a higher percentage of goals through screens through traffic It feels to me watching the games right now That like the only way to get through these tight defensive structures guys sift and pucks through and being on top of the net

Oh, it's a pinball machine right now. It's going in off everything yeah, so I did that because I heard our fearless leader Sammy talking about it that on the show recently and you know what I saw was that there's just a higher shooting percentage Borney they're not happening more. So there are much higher shooting percentage this year on point shots I thought as you thought as Sammy said last week that it looks like everything's just coming from

the point now in offensive zone play. One thing I have noticed is that shooting percentages and opportunities are down coming out of the corners and trying to get from below the goal line to slot on short plays. Although we saw a goal in the Edmonton Vegas game last night haven't seen a lot of it in the in the bigger picture, but most of the goals that are being scored from screens from broken plays from point shots, it's just a higher

shooting percentage of the shooting percentage on again, broken plays and rebounds and screens was 38%, where it's typically in a 2524% range in the past years. So it's going in more. And that's why we're seeing it because we obviously always focus on the goals. Big storyline, no question. Maybe one of the biggest is Connor Hellebuck coming off of a potential MVP season two.

What's wrong with Connor, particularly on the road? And when we're watching other goalies suffer these bounces, is there comfort for Connor to know that others goalies may be underperforming as well in this? This just may be the year of not the goalie. I have so much prepared for Jet Talk that I might just keep going. It's time. It's time. It's time.

It's on. I mean, I'll tell you, it's a fascinating story. Hellebuck, you know, I'm going to start from the top here and just stick with Rush, but I'm going to get there. Hellebuck has an 842% safe percentage off the Rush. He's allowed 12 goals off the Rush, more than anybody else. So as much as we've talked about goals going in from the point with him, he's been terrible off the Rush. So that's a big piece there. Winnipeg chances for and against. Our model doesn't like anybody worse than they like the Winnipeg Jets right now and their chances of getting through Dallas.

It's like, yeah, expected goals are 5 on 5, 15. Off the rush, they're 15. So they're giving up a lot of chances and they're not scoring on their chances. Their goalies are giving up a lot of goals on their chances. The model really dislikes them But one thing I looked at for you Kipper was the home and away discrepancy with Hellebuck All right regular season Hellebuck on the whole on the home end This is where he dominated his expected save percentage was 905 at home this year Now that's good because remember we remove all the noise,

like all the dump-ins and all that. We're just looking at scoring chances. So a 905 expected is a very high number. That means you're playing for a very good defensive team. He was a 930 actual at home, way above everybody else. That's where he, you know, gets into that heart conversation and why he wins the Vezna. It's because of his strength at home, way above everybody else. That's where he gets into that heart conversation and why he wins the Vezna. It's because of his strength at home.

On the road, what a difference. On the road, 901 expected in the regular season, and he played at 902, which means he did his job. He played at the level that he should, but this is where it gets crazy. On the road in the postseason, he has the worst expected save percentage, which means his team is the worst at defending on the road.

He's facing the hardest chances. 868. 868 early. So that seems really relevant to me, Valley. Yeah, like they're just giving up a ton. And his save percentage, Borny, on the 868, what he should be as 868, as hard as that is, 759.

Oh. Oh. And that's the worst in the league in the postseason, right? So he's performing terribly on the road and his home numbers are actually okay. I mean, he's an 890, 892. So he's actually solid like he should be at home, but he's getting destroyed on the road, and part of it is his own performances and bailing out his team.

Now, one thing that I take quite seriously is trying to qualify a money goalie. When I was in Hartford, I remember having this conversation with Jim Schoenfeld and we were talking about a goalie's impact on momentum. Now, in this particular game, we were in Manchester. Jason LaBarbara, who is now the goalie coach for the momentum. Now in this particular game we were in Manchester. Jason LaBarbara who is now the goalie coach for the Calgary Flames, he was my goalie partner and I can't tell you guys how much I respected him as a person and

as a goalie. Like this guy he played in games sometimes that I didn't want myself. Like he was one of those guys and then I remember getting on the bus saying to myself you know I should have wanted that game as much as Barb's did. He went out and won. You know he was just one of those guys. And then I remember getting on the bus saying to myself, you know, I should have wanted that game as much as Barb did. He went out and won. You know, he was just one of those teammates. He taught me a lot. We're in Manchester one night. We lose 1-0.

He has 42 or 43 saves. But the goal he gives up is from the half wall. And after the game, Jim Schoenfeld, our general manager that was really good, he had a great culture that he set for us there in the American League at that time. I think we ended up getting seven of our American League guys to play for the Rangers.

He said, you're judged on the goals you allow, not the saves that you make. Now, even as LeBarber's teammate, I'm saying to myself, I mean, we're not even in that thing if it's not for him. How am I going to blame him for the goal from the half wall? But the point is that if you want to play at the highest level, you're judged on the goals that you allow because they can either add life or sink the bench and it's goalies

can control momentum in games. So why do I say all that? I want to know who's stop in the puck when the game is on the line because we've seen a lot of games in this playoffs where a team storms back, they tie it up, and then the goalie deflates their own team after carrying that momentum. And I'm sitting here watching the game and I'm saying, God, like the goalies just aren't really with the swings and momentum. So if we factor in a goalie's save percentage when they are score tied up by a goal

or down by a goal, I like to refer to that as the money goalie. Now the money goalie stat of all stats that kills Hellebuck and the Jets right now is that he has an 822 safe percentage when the score is tied, whether up by a goal or down by a goal. So for a guy again that we're talking about for Vezna and maybe even for Hart, good news for the Leafs, Joseph Wall is second in the money goalie stat. He has a 916 save percentage at score tied up by a goal

or down by a goal. Number one, Frederick Anderson Kipper. He has a 939 save percentage in the money moments. Now Kipper, I heard years ago from a goalie coach that Frederick Anderson was the weakest mental goalie coach that he ever worked with mentally He was the week that he'd ever work. Yeah, I've never been able to get that out of my head, right? It just sits there and when I see moments that have been Frederick Anderson moments over the years and at the same time I wonder will he be able to break through? Has he worked on himself enough mentally to have

a breakthrough? Look I'm rooting for him but his career has been marred by these moments where you really question it. He's got him a game away from a conference final. 935 save percentage in playoffs right now. He's at the leaderboard of every one of our deep dives, every one of them. He's all over the play page. Can I can i ask you go ahead valley about uh bobrovsky because early in the toronto series we've seen a couple of goals go in on him after uh what usually would have been a momentum saver but uh maybe a little leaky early but he's shut the door if you're the leafs how do you beat him tomorrow night? All right so I got some interesting stuff on Bob before the series began he

and we had talked about has a weakness of up in the net above the gloves seven of the 11 goals that were scored in the Tampa series were over his hands. Now here's where it kind of gets interesting for me because of the way that Florida defends. When I worked at Quinnipiac, and this is many years ago and 2012 was specific year, we had a 2-on-1 drill in practice and our goalies got smoked and we talked about in the locker room and what I had said to the coach at the time was, how about tomorrow you let me speak to the defenseman, just the defenseman, we won't let the forwards know about this conversation. And I laid out an imaginary line through the slot, which I used to call the Royal Road. And I told the defenseman that if the puck passes across that line, or the puck carrier

carries it across like the Bennett goal, then let's just say that that is your net. That's your net as a defenseman. And if it goes in your net, it's going to end up in your goalie's net. We're not just going to make it vague and say, defend the middle of the ice. I want you to defend that line. The puck never goes across that line. Do you guys understand? Well, they went out and they positioned and posture different.

They had earlier flex out and then came in to protect that line. And the goalies didn't give up any goals on two on ones. At that moment, everybody bought into protecting that line. Now go fast forward to where we are in modern hockey. That line, it still matters, guys. One goal every three times the puck crosses that line. Florida, they've only allowed a pass or a player to cross that imaginary line nine times in the playoffs. That's best in the NHL. Only nine times.

Yeah. All right. So I'm looking at the teams that are doing really well and the teams that aren't doing well. And oftentimes it does matter to me with goalie save percentage and how it reflects that line. So I'm watching Austin Matthews the other night and he receives the pass that I put on the Twitter for before the show and it's down seam. And when he receives that puck, you know, look, again, as a viewer, I'm saying to myself, he's got to make the most on that play because they're so hard to get against Florida. And I know that he has a 45% chance to score on this play if he one touches it. Right?

He hangs on too long. He hangs on to it, Borny. And like that's what we do with our company, right? We want to see this puck on and off the stick in less than half of a second, right? We've talked a little bit about quiet eye this year. Well, that's the importance because you see where Bobrovsky is, you can see the slot line, the puck comes down that seam. Austin Matthews has a 45% chance to score this goal if it's a one touch. And it's funny enough, but last night, two nights ago, Nino Niederreiter had the exact same seam.

If you remember any hit it on first touch, it was like bang, bang, and it's in the back of the net. And it doesn't give the goalie any opportunity to close that space. By the time Matthew's got that off his stick, Borny, he was at three quarters of a second. And it must be off the stick in less than half a second. On your computer, each frame is 33.1 frames per second, so you can count them. And that's oftentimes what we do with our company. We were trying to just qualify time and space. Bob came across standing up too, which was impressive.

Exactly. Like, he didn't give him too much time there. So the one question I have for you, because I see this all the time when I'm seeing goalie analysis, as a player, I often shoot where, you know, when I was trying to score goals, I shot what was available. If you you're in tight you're trying to put it over the goalie if you're backdoor You're trying to hit a short side like you have you know, there's so rare. I see people go

Oh that guy's weak here. Oh, he's got a bad glove or whatever There's like two chances every 20 games where you get to think and pick a spot, you know You're mostly just shooting a spot. Can you be a successful NHL goalie if you have a spot? Because I see a lot of coverage that's like, oh, they're getting him high glove, but it's like, he's in the NHL. You know, I'm sure he's pretty good there. Look, I agree with you, I agree with you.

This is a long conversation, but I'm gonna try and make it short, right? Okay, so what you do is you don't just take the big context of that illustration and say that's where he's been scored on. I want to see the scoring chances that he's been scored on from that location. So that's exactly what we... Exactly. Was it a tip? Was it a rebound? Now, if we look at just shots,

because start the easy way and just look at straight on shots, I would look at odd man mans and shots from the slot and shots from just outside of slot. Joseph Wall, for instance, in my opinion, he uses a paddle length that's just a little bit too long so he has a low blocker spot, right? So if I'm an open shooter and I'm on Joseph Wall, I'm actually targeting low blocker

and I'm just gonna shoot my shot there. But if we talk about the Bobrowski conversation and we're talking about east to west and we're talking about elevating the puck, I did prepare something for that and I think this is really important. So we have seen 130 those low east to west like the Austin Matthews graphic we just saw. We've seen 130 of those scoring chances so far in the playoffs this year. We've seen 52 goals. All right, only seven of them, Borny have been on the ice. Only seven. Really? Right? Yeah. So what does that tell you? You have to

know how to elevate the puck on first touch. And we're talking about all encompassing things. You know, when Matthews makes a mistake on that play, he also looked back door to Kn because nice was there so he received it. He dropped his jaw He delayed to look up as he crowd the puck so he's already in trouble and if you look at the replay again He's looking at nice to try and throw Bobrovsky off as Bobrovsky comes across and gains depth on his feet So all of that time that was accumulated by Bobrovsky gave him the advantage to score. But my point is, is that when I'm looking at all of the goals on low passes like that one, they are all in the

upper part of the net only seven on the ice. So get it up, learn how to get it up on first touch and don't think about trying to make a better play. That's not the moment in the game that you're trying to be perfect by making a backdoor slam dunk for nice. That's not the play. It is one touch up elevation. So if you wanna know how to score in the NHL,

every one of those passes East-West is one time. In the past, he was never that guy, okay? I mean, he's always been shoot first. He's not He's not Your your typical Playmaking centerman this guy was a pure shooter and I mean has he lost a little Confidence the fast twitch that he had Doesn't appear there right now

Well, you know listen whether it's and I know it's been debated by you guys and rightfully so like is he hurt or something going on. But as I'm watching the game and I'm seeing him drill a one timer that he misses the net on but it's still a bomb. I know the one you're talking about. He pounded it. Yeah, like, hey, man, like this guy's wrist is fine if he could pound it like that. Yeah. Now, part of it it now part of it is he's not getting the chances this I was gonna use this on the show last week and it's good thing I hung on to my notes, but check this out So the east to west that he faced when he scored the 69 goals or 15

What was it 69? 69 69 so 69 goals that he scored not this season last season. He had 62 east to west passes where he scored 20 goals. Again, back to that same graphic. And then this season, he only had 29 east to west chances where he scored only seven goals. How do you go from 62 to 29? And then in the playoffs, that was his first east to west chance, the one that we just talked about. That was his first one. That's his first one. He's not getting his chances.

And sometimes, as you know, you can go through that with a player and say, hey, this is on you. You're not a target. You're not getting open. But boy, oh boy, like that was off a four check too, that chance, which to me, again, to me, watching from Connecticut, I'm like, that's a goal guys. This is the series.

Yeah. You know what, Valley? I'm just, I'm looking at some, some big names with three goals or less in the playoffs. And I think McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, of course, like when you, when you look at your analytics in general, is there a huge, like there's, the game's changed from regular season to playoffs. We know the intensity's up, the attention to detail. Like, does it look on paper as big of a swing from regular season to playoffs as I think it might? No, it does.

Like, for instance, I know about Jack Eichel and his focus is like defense first if Jack gets a lot of his Cookies during the regular season on the softer nights He'll end up behind the other team's net and he'll be looking for more offense because he knows he can get away with it on A night in Buffalo But he does come up to the challenge of like shutting down dry sidle and Connor And I don't think he's even thinking offense right now. Like he's not stretching himself out to take chances. Connor's interesting because what I noticed with Connor

is he's like leading his team with shots from the outside. He's taking a lot of fluff and he's really focused on being a passer. So on his two-on-one game winner with Dreisaitl, you know, Aiden Hill should know on that one, this is a pass like 10 times out of ten right now with this guy like that's just what that's just what he's doing that's the way he's playing this is what he's looking for he's not really that threatening it's almost like that phase

where Sidney Crosby went through where I know that when we were pre-scouting him because we had a couple of playoff rounds with him it was always let him shoot if he's on a two-on-one or a three-on-two we love him as a shooter until he improved that piece of his game But you know that you can defend against him a certain way and it's and it's that way But yeah, I'm seeing it like an expected goals You can see just the raw numbers of guys just aren't getting chances that in Oftentimes you're looking at the big guys and you're saying Austin's there like he's not getting it's not that he's unlucky

Because there are ways that you can look at it and say, All right, let me see the video. All right. He's got like four posts on open nets. These are these are going to turn for him. This is a this is a number that's going to turn for him. I don't see the light at the end of the tunnel though. Wow, great stuff, buddy. Family, how many hours do you think we can do a show just the three of us?

I think that we well I think that we're working towards next year Which is Sammy and friends and he's gonna run the show and we're just gonna all come in and he's gonna pay us a sum In fact, I got a bone to pick with you. Sammy. Oh guys about last week. Here we go. I knew this is coming Yeah, I knew this is what you do. What do you think? I'm gonna say? Why did you make me move for Hank? Is that what you're gonna say? Why did you make me move for Hank? Is that what you're going to say? I thought for sure listen for the record. I told them the same thing When it comes to this show Valley is not the backup. Sammy, 230 games in the NHL with this thing on.

You know what? He got starstruck. Listen, okay. Dr. Wayne calling Hank's not a way with that. Sammy, you'd get away with that. If I wasn't taking a walk on the beach the next day, listening to it, listen, it's not often that the producers nightmares get brought up on national television, but I got the squirms boys. I'm feeling it. Just be honest with me, man. You didn't, you didn't even ask why. If you had asked, I would have told you. You didn't ask. Don't ask. There's no job too big. There's no job too small for me. Listen, I'll eat the crap on that one. We had to get handsome Hank on. It was the

only thing he could do. Sorry brother. Yeah. You're better anyway. And Sammy's wife pressured him. Thanks Sammy. Love you bud. Now I'll ask going forward. Thanks Sammy. Thanks Valley. Great job. Alright fellas. Better looking Steve Allocat. Let's go Leafs. Come on Leafs. Let's go. Alright boys. Ciao. Oh great stuff. Honestly we could do hours. Hours of just asking Valley questions.

Oh man You okay? Oh, yeah, but I just I There's certain Truths and half lies you have to tell when you're a producer. It's much like being I don't know in a relationship And that was one I didn't know it was hoping would never come don't ever give relationship advice In fairness, we knew we could only get Hank that one day at the one time God. He's so handsome How can you say no? I can't argue a game time Game time. It's game time present. I bet 365 visit the app latest odds and find out why it's never ordinary at bet 365 must be 19 plus Ontario only please play responsibly

What was it that you want in boarding the total of goals goal or goals under what's there over under for? Individual goals in the game. I'm just like to bet under two and a half consider under one and a half I'm trying to figure out that right now on the fly here, but the game for the the total Itself they are flying they are expecting at six The number is six for tomorrow and the under is mine It is a favorite at minus 120 the over is a little bit of an underdog plus 100 that you get your push at six goals if you want to think it's gonna be seven I mean if you wanted to tease if you really think it's gonna be a slog

He's the line they have so I mean they have two and a half goals the under on that one reliefs No, like oh the game for the game. So I guess it would be yeah three two final Yeah, I think I think that's a safe bet So if you think it's gonna be a three to fire and you push the under is five and a half goals So that would be there you go. There's your number there and that would be minus 105 for tomorrow night So it's one of five a yeah under four and a half goals Under is plus 265 So that's where you start I would consider plus 265 is a good number. I would consider that I could see a 3-1 score

Tonight the Jets are in in Dallas game for crucial one for them They are underdogs against the Dallas Stars. They are plus 130 on the money line I think I was gonna I think Dallas is going to go 70. Like that move. 11-7. I really like that move. Just going to work him back in.

And I'm looking at the numbers here. Miko Ranton is still plus money to score a goal. I mean, it's plus 140. You kind of got to press here, don't you? You know what the DeVore clip is on going 11-7? He goes, yeah, that just means I get to play ranting and exactly right so you'll give me I mean give me you'll give me a Miko rant and anytime gold tonight why would I bet against that at this point of the playoffs I also don't mind a Kyle Connor anytime goal at plus 190 and

that was game time presented by bet 365 visit the app latest odds and find out what's ever ordinary at bet 365 That's for 19 plus Ontario only please play responsibly. So I'm all over Isles Twitter Yeah, just like I follow a bunch of people from I thought you said something that got you No, no, no, like I just follow a bunch of people and right now spotted sources close to the situation Tell me Isles GM a long time and I told you Lou Lammer, Lowe spotted at the Buffalo, Niagara International Airport There's a picture of him in Buffalo You know, I don't know. Can he help the Sabres? No, I'm happening. Here's the thing. Maybe loves chicken wings

I thought I ever spot to I've had Lenovo wings. They're fantastic. So I in for why not Kipper says no, give me says no. I don't ignore my aisles Twitter. Are you done? Oh, I'm done. Did I not say the end? I thought so. Did he say the end? I thought I said the end. Did he say the end? I did. I don't pay attention to you. Okay, well, that was game time. That was game time for some of my Met 365 I did.

Okay. Met 365, game time! All right, we're good. We're good. We're good. Okay, we'll take a quick break. When we return, we'll get into a little bit more of that. And I'll tell you why Lou's not going to Buffalo.

Oh, because he's going somewhere else? We'll talk about the LA Kings and Holland are Elliott Friedman reporting on Monday that indications are LA closing in Have to be 70 to get a G. I'll tell you I'll tell you the reason why Holland's gonna go to LA and who he turned down after the break. Whoa, sexy tease, buddy. Let's go.

You are watching and listening to Real Kipper and Born. Everything you need to know about the Blue Jays, Blair and Barker. Be sure to subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to the program. As a reminder, this hour, Real Kipper and Boran brought to you by bet 365 the kipper is Justin born Sammy McKee Sammy how's team Canada doing with the world championships 3-0? They've had big wins over France

over Hungary over Slovenia Nate McKinnon against Hungary. How'd that go? How did I saw Sid punch? They beat Latvia I saw son Sid punch a Latvian guy's helmet off So he's around Robin over because nobody really pays attention to that. They play a lot around Robin games I think their last ones against Sweden May 20th I want to say so I think that'll be the end of it and then everybody will get into it But yeah, I saw Sid spin off some guy just buried on some team and practice Jersey. So looks fun And I got my eyes on it, all right

I'll get I'll get more into it once they get to the medal rounds and stuff But I I've got my eyes on it. Okay, just before the break we mentioned Ken Holland and now expected to be named general manager of the LA Kings or Some position I'm not convinced that manager of the LA Kings or some position. I'm not convinced that it's a long-term thing for him as a general manager. My sense is that they're gonna bring him on board and there might be another hire coming.

And I don't know if it would be someone kind of new, fresh, someone that Ken can groom but there seems to be obviously the different direction that they're going but they're starting with Ken Holland all these organizations now with this whole president thing they're all yeah we're gonna bring in Kent Hughes but but Gordon behind him and we're gonna bring in all the input Rutherfords behind him and you know everyone wants to have this like layers of I think I'm not mistaking Ken might be about 70 years of age. So, I mean, he's not not really old now

But he's no spring chicken either. So I I get a sense that It's not gonna be the day-to-day Situation that it would normally come with being a general manager that there's gonna be someone else. What a dream when you're 70. Yeah Los Angeles I'll live in Manhattan Beach and I won't be the day-to-day guy. Sounds good. A big draw for Ken also was West Coast. He's got a home in British Columbia. He's a Predator Ridge guy isn isn't he? He's around the Vernon area. And I think being on that West Coast in LA is a better situation for him to get home

much more than the Islanders, which I'm told they were, they offered to Ken Holland really and he was more interested on Going to the West Coast and LA was a better fit for him to teams My dad played for it, but I will say and taking the job for foolish decision take Yeah, so he but this this essentially turned down the job of the New York Islanders is what I'm saying And to me he made a lifestyle choice, right? He wants to be closer to home. It's a nice place to live. It's all, you know, those are you're not typically getting.

And I'm not saying this in a way that I hope not to disparage Ken, but that's not like you always talk about guys coming to play for the Maple Leafs. You're like, yeah, because they want to be here. They want to come home. They want to play in front of their friends. They want to, you know, it's not necessarily the most motivated people to win a cup. You're just getting people who want to come home. They want to play in front of their friends. They want to you know It's not necessarily the most motivated people to win a cup. You're just getting people who want to be here You know, I hope there is someone else there They're working with them and yeah guide because he knows he knows his stuff obviously look at the Oilers right now. No

Yeah, it's funny though. You want to go? To the team that just like every year loses to the team that you used to run. I I'm not putting words in his mouth, but I don't know if it's a hundred percent It's a lifestyle thing right again go take a chance at the Kings has to be at that age Yeah, it's got to be like a complete package kind of thing. It works and it also works Away for the away taking this job in Columbus. He's not no, you know, he's not no taking it in Winnipeg. No offense Anyway, the other the other name that you mentioned Lou Lammer, Lowe not going anywhere nowhere Staying with the Islanders staying with the Islanders in

some sort of capacity which I hope you completely Go away. I I said on this show I That he didn't strike me as a guy that would want to kind of special advisor around but I that he didn't strike me as a guy that would want to kind of special advisor around, but I hear he's hanging around. I think you get to a point where your choices are hang around or don't be around. And hanging around is an upgrade on the dope beer. I've also talked to enough people where it's like, they're not really sure like how much he's gonna hang around some tell me like minimal minimal and then others say Yeah, he he'll be behind the scenes

I always think and I know this is like telling about my own personality, but like Go catch marlin Go play golf go see rome go Don't you want to do stuff? That's not Lou, okay? Go watch, well then go watch hockey in Switzerland. What do you like? Go like, if you love hockey so much, they play hockey in beautiful, but like Budapest and Germany, and they play hockey all over the world,

go watch it there. I guess this is what he likes to do. He likes to run hockey teams. But I mean. He loves, it's all he knows. Right. It's all that's been around in his life. And it would be really hard. And I don't know if he

felt like he was not interested in now doing the same role for another organization. I think the islanders ownership group offered him this ambassador, whatever you want to call it, special advisor, whatever you want to call it, special advisor, whatever you want to call it. And he took that rather than uprooting again to a new organization. It's a great place to live.

And he is, you know, I think he's very well settled. I know he's respected and liked and he likes the area. So if Ken Hall and the area with the devils for years, if Ken Hall and kind of, well, if he turned it down, then would another experienced guy come in with Lou or would it make more sense for the ownership group with Lou's help to go find the next young general manager? I'm team Matthew Darsh. That's the name that I keep hearing.

I would like to see Matthew Darsh get the job. To me, it's like he has seen what the Lightning have done for the past decade. They have been ruthless in their decision-making, whether it's Gord or Pallad or you know go through left Stamkos obviously. So if you go with Matthew who's got no experience at the general manager level and you've got Luce somewhere hanging around. Just over his shoulder I would Know what kind of feel to Islander fans that maybe lose still the guy that's that's the danger and again I don't know again. Some people are telling me no lose not gonna be around that much. She's not gonna He's not gonna be pushing buttons like he did in the previous season.

You're right. This guy, if he wants to be there and he lives in the area and that's what he likes doing, he'll probably be around some. I'm torn on it because I have a ton of respect for Lou. The man he is, the job he's done over his career and the way he runs organizations. I was ready for a fresh start but... It's not a fresh start. You're beating around the bush.

Like you said, if he's there, he's the guy. It is not a friend you got your beating around the bush like you said if he's there he's the guy it is not a fresh start yeah he is he's lurking he's just always gonna be around like you think like you said he was a little lurk or Ella you're gonna be making a big decision without like Lou if he's there if he disagrees with the decision you want to make Evans can be like what do we do is Is he saying this? Is he the guy? I don't know.

Again, I don't know how it's going to work for the next few years if Lou takes on this role for a couple of seasons. I guess if he stopped being a GM now, it'd be like when Brooks gets out in Shawshank Redemption. And then there's a head coach too, right? Not used to the world. Let's not forget, there's still a head coach. Hall of Famer.

Patty Wa? Regret. He's the dude. He's staying. We're regarded as one of the best in history. So there's a lot of still strong, strong opinions in that organization, not too far removed. Listen, they, I mean, say what you will about Lou, but it was his last year as general manager. He gave them a parting gift with that Brock Nelson trade.

First round pick, Cal Richie, who's starring for the Oshawa Generals in the OHL final right now, he is a stud. I would have rather they had multiple parting gifts. Sure. Peugeot and of course But that was first pick overall coming. Yeah, that's that from the Calritchie thing. No, no, they won And that yeah, they should be in decent shape Yeah, and two three years two years and get aggressive Two three years two years and get aggressive

Flip somebody's old guys. I think they're gonna be right around that 89 to 93 point team when you got one of the best boys the league got a chance and Broken rules so broken can be one of the best guys in the league when he certainly can tonight Heiskin and back Miro Heiskin. What do you think of? Peter Boricola and 7 love it. I Think it's a good way to end in sorry if Heiskenen is not ready to do 25 minutes like he usually does then you don't want to disrupt your pairs too much mm-hmm. I Think it was January. He was out with a

Collision say a little later. Maybe fed. I don't know maybe January I felt like he was three and a half months it's been a long time regardless three and a half months as much as a collision with Mark Stone I think in January maybe late January but man it's a long time to be out to come back in and hit that high note of a series but you know if they're leaving the other 60 and they're taking out Alex Petrovic I know he kicked one in he's a great story but I don't think it's a massive loss to get Miro Heisken in. The last game he played, he played 1950 on January 28, 2025. There you go. Okay. No reason at all to change the channel

at all. Hockey, hockey, hockey. As Sportsnet brings it all to you, One game, you start to get a little worried about there being less jets in Dallas, 8 p.m. Eastern Sportsnet and CBC. Our thanks to Steve Valakette and Gord Stalick in our leaf hour edition. Enjoy the game tonight and we're back tomorrow on the real Kipper and born show.