Reuters World News - 2024 elections around the world: Democracy on the line

Episode Date: December 30, 2023

It's been called the biggest year for democracy since democracy began. More than a third of the world's population go to the polls in 2024 to elect leaders, including Taiwan, Russia, India and the United States. But that doesn't mean democracy is thriving. Join global managing editor Mark Bendeich and host Christopher Walljasper as they discuss the elections in 2024 that will shape the end of this decade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's been called the biggest year for democracy since democracy began. More than a third of the world's population goes to the polls in 2024 to elect their leaders. Taiwan, Russia, India, and the United States are among about 50 nations engaging in the democratic process next year. But that doesn't mean democracy is thriving. In this special episode, we look at the strongmen trying to maintain power. The ways controlling parties and other powers are attempting. to influence free and fair elections, and how the return of Donald Trump could impact democracy at home and around the world.

I'm Christopher Wal Jasper in Chicago. And I'm Mark Bendai in London. Mark Bendai is our global managing editor. He covers politics, economics, and general news. And he's covered elections around the world, including Asia and Europe. Mark, thanks for joining me today. Thanks, Chris. Now, 2024 is gearing up to be a huge year for elections and democracy around the world.

What are some of the elections that we are watching closely here at Reuters? Well, we're watching quite a few this year. Obviously, none more closely than the U.S. election in November. But things kick off very early and in a very interesting way with the Taiwanese elections, both for Parliament and President in January, January 13. and then we move to Russia in March. The election outcome there for the presidency is not in any doubt, but it will be very, very interesting to see how Vladimir Putin handles that vote.

And then in May, in the middle of the year, we got a couple of very interesting elections. So by May, anyway, in India, so the world's biggest democracy, we'll head to elections, and we will have a very interesting vote for Modi, the prime minister and his BJP party. and then between May and August we'll have an election in South Africa, which will be very interesting indeed if the ANC loses its parliamentary majority for the first time since it came to power with Nelson Mandela in 1994. And then there are many other elections, Chris, but those are the ones that I think are particularly interesting for us. And then we roll towards November, of course, for the US elections. Wow. That is just so much happening this.

year. How does Reuters think about coverage of so many different elections? So we're very well-placed, I would say, in Reuters to cover these elections. There is only one way to cover an election, and that's on the ground. So we have a bureau in Moscow. We have reporters there who will be following this very closely, including any signs of opposition protests, for example. We'll have people on the ground in India, in Taiwan, and of course in the US and South Africa. So it's really important. Obviously, elections at the end of the day,

they're about who wins and who loses, how many seats in Parliament, or how many votes for the presidency, a party or an individual gets. But really, to cover an election, you have to be on the ground, to pick up the shifts in mood, the anger, the frustrations of electorates,

which we're already seeing and already reporting out now, in fact. So let's go a little deeper, starting with Russia. Just this last week, one opposition candidate, Yekaterina Donsova, was disqualified from the race. And opposition figurehead, Alexei Navalny, was moved to a remote penal colony above the Arctic Circle. You mentioned that even though the election is something of a foregone conclusion, there's still a lot at stake. Yeah, sure. I mean, even though the election result seems to be in no doubt,

Vladimir Putin will rule until 2030. It'll be particularly interesting to see what happens on the street. I mean, there is some token opposition to Putin in this election, but it'll be particularly interesting, I think, to see whether the de facto or the most prominent opposition figure, Navalny and his supporters, can create some kind of noise and track some kind of attention during the Russian election. But I think in terms of Russia thinking about more broadly, Putin stays until 2030. He's playing what we've reported quite clearly to be a game of patience with Ukraine in the Ukraine war.

This is a politician who I think believes he has time. He's under no really significant domestic pressure to change course in Ukraine. That's the evidence as we see it now. But of course, if you have Donald Trump in the White House, former president, Trump has been critical of the level of U.S. support to Ukraine in the war. So you can imagine a scenario where, with a new mandate till 2030, Putin has all the time in the world to really wait out events. And time seems to be on Putin's side and not really on Ukraine's side.

Ukraine, if you remember, too, they toyed with the idea of having an election in 2024, but decided with their hands completely full with a war that they weren't going to do that. But politics actually has not stopped in Ukraine. And there are increasing and growing voices that are critical of President Zelensky and what's seen as his close circle of governing supporters. So it's going to be very interesting, but time and the waiting game are going to tell, I think, in terms of Russia and Ukraine. Now, there was a great Reuters story out this week from Taiwan about mudslinging ahead of the election. That kind of speaks to the vibrancy of that democracy. Freedom of speech is honored and power is held to account. But the big story there is, of course, that Taiwan claims it's an independent nation from China, but Beijing disagrees. How might that relationship impact these elections? Well, I think they're at the center of this election. Taiwan is a really fundamental piece of the global economy. It's where 80% of the world's semiconductor.

are made, and it also happens to sit just a short distance off the Fujian coast, off mainland China. And Taiwan is considered a renegade province by mainland China, by the communist government. But of course, Taiwan is also a vibrant democracy allied strongly to the United States, and it's armed. The DPP, the Democratic Party in Taiwan, traditionally the party, the party that. has in the past promoted the idea of independence, their candidate, the leading candidate in this election, is not really campaigning heavily on that this time. Obviously, it's not the warm embrace of mainland China that maybe some in Taiwan would prefer, but it's just a fascinating

election, Chris, because it comes at a time when Taiwan is increasingly looking at itself and its future and where it wants to be. It's seen Hong Kong in the last few years go from something like independence, like an independent territory to very squarely within the control of the Chinese Communist Party. And we've seen political demonstrations being cracked down upon national security laws, that kind of thing. So Taiwan, how it votes will also perhaps determine how mainland China approaches Taiwan in the coming years. For instance, there is talk in the U.S. military that Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, has told the People's Liberation Army there in mainland China to be ready to move on Taiwan, if necessary, towards the end of this decade. So there's a lot at

stake. There's a lot at stake in Taiwan. So it'll be very, very interesting to see how that plays out. Is China trying to influence the outcome of this election? Well, some would say yes, perhaps within the DPP in Taiwan. We're going to be reporting this out in the weeks and, well, now only days ahead of the January 13 vote about disinformation that's been blamed on China using even religion as a kind of a Trojan horse for influence in Taiwan. And also, you know, China has been very active, the Chinese military. in the Straits of Taiwan as well, which it would serve as a reminder to Taiwan voters that it is Xi Jinping's cherished goal to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. India is the world's largest democracy, and the economic growth there in recent years

has Narendra Modi and his BJP party expecting another term in power. But there are some concerns over his human rights record, especially in Muslim communities, How might that affect this election? There really is a very solid amount of support behind the BJP and its economic agenda, even though Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister, has drawn a lot of criticism from certain quarters over his human rights record and treatment of minorities, Muslim populations and communities in particular. But the recent state elections in India showed that the BJP, the Hindu Nationalist Party,

is really going into this election as very firm favourites, and the opposition is a bit of a shadow of its former self, the Congress Party. So again, the reporting on the ground really bears this out. You know, if you go and visit India, it's striking the amount of infrastructure development that has been going ahead in India. And it's hard to resist the conclusion that that has really engendered a level of support for the BJP, notwithstanding. the fact that there's been sharp criticism of the way the BJP has treated Muslim voters.

But to be sure, and we wrote about this recently in an in-depth article, which looked at the way the BJP has also been cultivating Muslim voters. I think the one thing that's really clear from India and looks like being borne out in the election, Chris, is that it is a formidable political machine. It really, really is. this is a country of over a billion people, and the BJP campaigns at a door-to-door level. You know, it really does go down to the doorstep and talks to voters, and it's clearly a key to their electoral success so far.

In Africa, political turmoil in some parts of the continent in recent years has troubling implications beyond the borders of individual nations. What do we expect in 2024? Yeah, if we look at West End. Central Africa, there have been, I think, eight coups since 2020, and it's been a big concern, particularly for the people who live in those areas, which have generally been countries that have been troubled by insurgencies, jihadist insurgencies and other types of insurgencies, violent is the kind of the common thread through that.

And so loosely that area that we call the Sahel, which stretches through from central into Western Africa. That's where we've seen some of these coups, and that's raised concerns among Western countries, particularly, say, in Europe, France and the United States in particular, where they really are concerned that the breakdown of democracy and then security in these countries will lead to an expansion of this violence, further destabilizing the region, and then creating migrants who could then head in greater numbers towards North Africa and across the Mediterranean to Europe. So there are a lot of concerns about the future of democracy in those areas. Now in South Africa, the ANC party, the party that ended apartheid, is facing criticism for

economic mismanagement and corruption. Around a third of South Africans are unemployed and swaths of the country are hit by up to 10 hours of electrical blackouts every day. How does all this lead to something of a democratic turning point? Well, if they lose their parliamentary majority, it will be the first time in 30 years that the ANC has had to even think about sharing power. And of course, you know, when you share power, lots of things come with that. That is, you may have to change the way you govern. You may have to change public policy in order to attract and keep a coalition partner.

I think it would be particularly interesting to see how this plays out, particularly among younger voters. I think they call themselves the born free, the voters who have not known anything but democracy and haven't lived through apartheid to see how they vote. But the ANC would be looking at kind of one of two parties, this economic freedom fighters, which is a party that's very strongly allied to poor black voters and is a Marxist. Party. And then there's the Democratic Alliance, which is much more of a free market economic party that is very traditionally supported by white voters and would probably be among those two more favoured by, say, the middle class in South Africa. But it's certainly, whatever it means, it's going to mean change if they lose their parliamentary majority, which for the first time, that's a risk. It's not for certain, Chris, but that could be a bit of a turning point for not

the ANC, but South Africa and South African public policy. A second term for Donald Trump could have a big impact, not just in the US, but around the world. He's already come out fighting, promising revenge on those he perceives as enemies. Could Trump's re-election threaten democracy? Well, I don't know if it will, Chris, but it'll be very, very closely watched, obviously at home there in the US, but also in the rest of the world. I think what Donald Trump does in his first days, if he were to regain the White House, would be critical.

He has said that he would go and clear out certain elements of the bureaucracy, for example, the Department of Justice. And also, depending on what happens with the charges against him, including attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election. So there's a lot there better as ever, and this is what happened in the first. first term too, people waited and watched to see, but there are very definitely concerns given his public comments about what he would do in another term in office. But it looks like it will be a very interesting ride, not only for American voters, but for other countries, frankly. I think Europe is really trying to figure out how to play Donald Trump in a second term. One of the things that they would expect is that support for Ukraine in terms of continued very high levels

of US military support for Ukraine, that might be scaled back, and then the burden shifts to Europe. There's also, when the US is not beating the drum on human rights in international forums, then there's criticism. That means the generally respect for human rights in international forums on world affairs that they tend to start to fade if the U.S. is not banging away at them. So, yeah, I think it'll be, it'll think it'll be very interesting, but the proof will be in the pudding, as the saying goes. Interesting. Now, I grew up in rural Iowa, a part of the country that voted for Trump in the last two elections. There are people in places like that who say that Trump's ideas about cleaning out the bureaucracy, that they're much-needed reform.

to a bloated government, not that they're an existential threat to democracy. So how do we balance these two ideas? Yeah, I think there's a lively debate to be had. I really do understand, and I've received feedback from readers, including this very point, that democracy needed to be remade, that there were people in the US that didn't have a voice previously. I've heard those arguments as well. It's a difficult one to have a hard, fast and objective view on, but I think one interesting thing that is a test of, I guess, of democracy is if and when democracy doesn't give enough of a safety valve for minority groups or for a certain sector of opinion, then you find it hitting the streets. So one thing to watch,

right around the world and elections this year will be the extent to which they are seen as free and fair, that the result is accepted by the losers and that instead of people taking to the streets, there's still a will to pursue their differences through the democratic processes and through institutions like Parliament and the courts. So I think that is really when the rubber hits the road, that's when democracy works or doesn't work, I think. Again, it's all a debate. These are all of subjective things, but these are the things that touch our lives, right? That's why as journalists, we're so passionate about reporting it out. Okay, so let's step back.

We've talked about various instances around the globe where the idea of democracy is being tested. What does this mean for political representation around the world? Although there has been a lot of coverage about democracy. being on the back foot and backsliding, losing ground, as it were, for many years globally. So sort of the big picture is that after the fall of the Soviet Union, then there was a blossoming of democracy and there were new nations born and there was a real resurgence in democracy. And then the Freedom House, which is a US-based not-for-profit, does kind of an annual survey of, let's call it democracy, but they use civil and political rights as a kind of a broad measure

for the health of democracy in countries. So they say that for 17 years, essentially it's been a net degradation in the health of democracy globally. That is that rights have been curtailed in those countries, that free and fair elections are getting fewer and fewer. The prevailing trend is toward authoritarianism at the least in autocracy at its extreme. dream. But it's interesting if you look at some of the academic research that's been done on this, it's actually telling a slightly different story. There is one study done by Berkeley in the University of Virginia, which argues that on much more objective measures, so for example, the losers of elections that accept the result and so on, that there is no actually clear

evidence, that there has been such a dramatic slide in the state of democracy globally. So it's sort of interesting. It's a very hot area. Democracy can be a very subjective term, but suffice to say, there are a lot of concerns this year that democracies will elect people who may have, as part of their agenda, things that might not score well on a democracy checklist. But it's a very hot area, and I think it'll be very interesting to see and not to jump to any any conclusions necessarily and to see how how the year unfolds. Absolutely. Well, I look forward to reporting this out with you as we march into the new year.

Thanks so much, Mark. Hey, thanks, Chris. That's it for this special edition. We're off until the new year. Thanks for listening in 2023. Thanks to Mark Bendai and all the reporters covering elections around the globe in the coming months. It's that on the ground reporting that makes this show possible.

Reuters World News is produced by Jonah Green, Tara Oaks, David Spencer, Kim Vanel, and myself. Our senior producer is Carmel Crimmons. Our executive producer is Leila de Kretzer. Engineering and sound design by Josh Summer. To make sure you know what's going on in your world, listen in for 10 minutes every weekday. And don't forget to subscribe on your favorite podcast player or download the Reuters app.