Reuters World News - Beyond Super Tuesday: Voters and issues shaping the general election

Episode Date: March 2, 2024

Join members of the Reuters election team for a conversation with host Christopher Walljasper about how some key voting groups are thinking about the race for the White House. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Super Tuesday sees 16 states holding primaries for both parties' presidential nominees. It's often a contest that seals the deal, especially for the person challenging the incumbent. This year, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are well out ahead as their party's preferred candidates. So we decided to fast forward for this weekend podcast and look past Super Tuesday to what we know so far about the voters who will decide. side the general election. In America's complicated electoral college math, certain demographics and issues will play an outsized role on November 5th. Join me and members of our U.S. elections team as we dig in to some of them. I'm your host, Christopher Waljasper, in Chicago. First up, let's welcome White House editor Heather Timmons. Heather runs the Reuters team that

covers the Biden administration's inner workings on a daily basis. and she's also leading them on his campaign trail. Heather, thanks for joining me today. Thank you. I want to start out by talking about women. We've heard a lot about how women voters could make or break either candidate. Why is that? As we all know, we shouldn't talk about any voting block in America as a monolith.

And the women's vote in America, while it does lean overall democratic, white women voted for Trump in 2020 by 55% to 43%. And so what we've seen a lot when we go and we talk to people that are supporting Nikki Haley is there does tend to be a lot of women at her rallies. And there's a lot of women there who say, I voted for Trump. I held my nose. I voted for Trump. Thank goodness I don't have to do it again.

Or I don't want to do it again. So a really big focus for both the Biden camp and the Trump camp is getting those Haley voters over to their side. And we're going to probably see for the next few months both sides trying to convince them. to come over to them. So what issues do the parties think they can use to do that? Right now, and particularly from the Biden campaign, they are looking at abortion rights and reproductive rights and maybe more broadly women's ability to have agency over their own bodies. It's one of the biggest advantages that Democrats think that they have. And they do have polling that shows that yes, Democratic women believe that women should have a right to decide whether or not

to have an abortion, but also independent women, too. And that's something that anecdotally, we see a lot is that voters that we talk to that consider themselves, independents don't want the government telling them what to do about a lot of things, including, again, what to do with their own body. So this is something that Democrats absolutely think they have an advantage. And how does that compare to the Republican strategy? Well, it's obvious that the Republican Party scrambled really quickly and Donald Trump scrambled really quickly to try to come out again. that Alabama Supreme Court ruling. You know, Trump said he supports the availability of IVF. We've seen Congress members proposing various different bills. I think we're seeing, you know, someone like

Nikki Haley on the campaign trail talking about how she pragmatically would like to see the Republican Party address abortion and abortion limitations. Maybe she personally says I would be in favor of some sort of nationwide law to limit abortion at a certain number of weeks, but we can't win on this. So what we need to do instead is figure out a way that we can win on it. We're going to see the state of the union next week. Republicans have picked a relatively young congresswoman from Alabama to do the rebuttal, and she's a mother of young children. And I think they've specifically highlighted her to do that so that they can be talking to women. And women, they play an outsized role in the actual number of people who turn up to vote, right?

It's interesting, you know, women register at a higher rate to vote in America than men do, and then those registered women come out and vote at a higher rate. So there have been more female voters than male voters in every U.S. presidential election since 1964. One thing we saw recently come out from the AARP is that women, age 50 and up, play an outsized role in that voter rate. There's about 62 million of them, and they cast about one third of all ballots in 2022, but they're just a quarter of the voting age population. Some of the things that we've seen that have been very interesting when we talk to women voters, particularly about support for Joe Biden, is there is an age gap right now. We talk to a lot of voters recently, young women who are very

upset about his stance on Israel, about his failure to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, their students, they're out there protesting. And these women tell us, but they're talking to their moms. And their moms are like, if that man isn't elected, you're going to lose your reproductive rights. So there's this interesting sort of gender discussion happening among women on the left in America. Are there places where women will be more influential in November? The big swing states, you know, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Democrats are trying this time to win North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona. We already saw women coming out in those states in the midterms to vote pretty strongly

for Democrats, particularly, and in 2020, Michigan particularly had a huge rate of young voters. A lot of those young voters tend to be women. We're going to see Democrats looking to focus on women in some of the states that have big college towns. Michigan is a really good example for that. Wisconsin is another place that a lot of young voters came out in 2020 through various sort of social media and other organization kind of things. That's the kind of thing that we're seeing the campaign talk about. Now, you mentioned young women voters. how are either party trying to extend that outreach to the younger voting population in general?

Well, we just saw the Biden campaign joined TikTok. Don't know how that's going to do. But, you know, if you look around at social media right now, the young person's political conversation is happening online right now on TikTok. So there is nowhere else for them. Again, we're going to see them do a lot of college campus stuff. And that is definitely true for the Republicans, too. We will definitely see them try to do a lot of, do a lot of college appearances.

And beyond reproductive rights issues, what are some of the things that might motivate those Nikki Haley women voters that you mentioned to ultimately pick a new candidate? You know, that is a really good question. I mean, I think comfort about the economy. We see Republicans and Democrats both talk about crime. The latest polling that I have seen that looks at the issues that they care about is, their reproductive rights and the economy. So we're talking about, can you afford your rent, your housing, your food, and things like that.

You know, Super Tuesday is going to make this into most likely a Biden versus Trump race. And so what you're going to see everybody do after that is scramble to go after these Haley voters. And the people that are able to capture them might very well be the people that are able to capture this whole election. Are you in L.A.? Are you in San Francisco? Where are you? Los Angeles. Omar Yunus is one of our video producers here at Reuters and has reported around the world for more than a decade.

He's spending most of 2024 crossing the U.S. to cover candidates and voters. Well, first of all, Omar, thank you for chatting with me today. No worries, of course, anytime. Now, you recently traveled to Michigan for the primary, and we saw a big protest vote by some Democrats about Biden. stance on Israel. What can you tell us about the voters you spoke to and how they could impact a general election? So when I was in Dearborn, which is more than 54% Arab, I spoke to Democratic voters of all ages in different professions and almost all of them said that Biden's handling of the conflict in Gaza would possibly make them decide not to vote in November.

because they were so upset about it. One young Democratic voter that I spoke to Adam Abbas Sala, who's a 23-year-old Palestinian-American. In 2020, he actually campaigned for Joe Biden. Muslims in Michigan voted for Biden, which put him over the top, really. And, you know, when we look at it, we helped this guy get over the finish line. And he, you know, was going house to house in his neighborhood. We donated to him, we knocked on doors for him.

But now he's actively campaigning against Joe Biden. He's definitely not committed to the Palestinians and their concerns. So we're going to vote uncommitted because we are not committed to this president. And we're not going to be committed in him winning for another four years. We also spoke with the mayor of Dearborn, Abdullah Hamud. He's the first Arab-American mayor of the city. For us, it's, you know, this alignment with Benjamin Netanyahu and the most right-wing government Israeli history

is truly a sense of betrayal to this community. You know, he's a Democrat, and I asked him if he was going to vote in November, and he just kind of, you know, laughed it off. Yeah. You know, I very much am operating on a day-to-day right now. Now, that's interesting. What compelled this community

to vote Democrat in the last elections? Well, I think there's about 300,000 Arab Americans or Muslims. living in Michigan. And in the last election, the majority of them overwhelmingly voted for Biden. That comes after former President Trump's, you know, Muslim ban, his fiery rhetoric. Trump was very pro-Israel also when he was president. He moved the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He upset a lot of Arab Americans in the process. So Trump's rhetoric, toward Arab Americans while he was in office was incredibly problematic.

And now President Biden's record in the Israel-Gaza conflict is also a challenge. Where does that leave this community come this November? Well, it really, I suppose, depends on what Biden does in the lead up to November. But he has said that he's hoping a ceasefire will be in place by Monday, and he has kind of upped his criticism of the Israeli military's response. And with Biden having won Michigan with only about 155,000 votes last time, and there being 300,000 Arab Americans, you know, it could really lead to some problems for him come November if,

Things don't change. To give us a sense of what's going on in Michigan and beyond, really, let's bring in Kat Stafford. She's our race and justice editor and is actually based in Detroit. Thanks for joining me today, Kat. Thank you so much for having me. So, Kat, we just heard Omar talk to us about why voters in Michigan were disillusioned and chose to vote uncommitted in the Democratic primary. How did this uncommitted movement grow beyond? just the Arab American community there.

So what we saw on the ground was really, and I think this is an important point, is that this was a multiracial, multi-generational movement. It wasn't just Muslim and Arab-American voters who decided to come out and vote uncommitted. They were able to galvanize people across racial lines to really send this message.

And one thing that I heard in particular from a black advocate was that she said that she's hearing on the ground that black voters are also. frustrated in seeing what has happened with Gaza. They also want to see a ceasefire happen. And in fact, she went as far as to say that if President Biden cannot understand the plight of Palestinian people, how will he ever understand the plight of black Americans? So I think people really wanted to come out and send a strong message to President Biden that they expect in our demanding to see more from him on this issue. What is it about the conflict in Gaza that is resonated?

with that community? I think people are seeing a commonality, a similarity they feel between the two sides. They see this as a version of oppression that they feel kind of, as it was described to me, a kindred spirit looking at the legacy of racism and how things have happened here in America, looking around the world when they see this happening elsewhere, what they perceive as being similar to what's happened to them, they feel a sense of kinship. And so they said, we can't just fight for the rights of black Americans and citizens here in this nation. This is a worldwide struggle that they view for civil rights and the rights of people.

So they're really trying to take that and use that as a way to unite people again across racial lines on this. Now, in 2020, President Biden did very well in Democratic-led cities, right? Milwaukee, Atlanta, Detroit, Philadelphia, and black voters were a big part of that coalition that he built. Do we see what happened in Michigan as a bellwether for some of the other states in future primaries? Potentially. The one thing I do think that's also interesting to point out about the Michigan primary is that in the city of Detroit, the largest city in Michigan, which is about 77% African American, we did not see as significant amount of voter. coming out to vote uncommitted. So some of the experts that I've talked to see that as a potential opening for President Biden and Democrats to get there, get on the ground and really try and raise

awareness and get that support going again for this very, very key group of black voters in Michigan. Because I think the reality also when you're talking about black voters is there are a significant amount of issues that are resonating with them that are important to them. So while we are seeing a significant amount of support among some aspects of the Black community in various cities on this topic. There are others that are really focused on other key issues impacting their communities on the ground. What are some of those topics? Well, if you think back to 2020, when we had the racial reckoning after the police killing of George Floyd, Brianna Taylor, and so many other Black Americans, people were really expecting and fighting for sweeping criminal justice reform.

form. So we saw people demanding that Biden, the Democrats, really take up these issues and just overhaul and dismantle the inequities that have come out of our nation's criminal justice system. So that's one piece of it. But there are a lot of other topics that are important to black voters. If you think about reproductive rights and health equity, that is something that is very important to black women, in particular, which have been touted as being kind of the backbone of the Democratic Party. Asma rates for black children, high blood pressure, black people have some of the highest rates of health and equity. So these are things that matter to them. Going beyond that, a lot of the people that I've talked to, they're also saying that we cannot forget about the threat of white supremacy,

white nationalism and how that has manifested into real outcomes, such as the Jacksonville shooting that we had, the shooting in Buffalo, New York at the grocery store that killed several black Americans. So there are a range of topics that are resonating with black voters, including the economy and inflation. I just talked to a woman who mentioned that she was on the ground doing a focus group with black voters in a key swing state. And this woman said, listen, I cannot put food on the table for my children. That is what matters to me in this moment. So I think what we are seeing and what we're hearing from advocates is Biden has a lot of work to do in terms of galvanizing these key voter groups. How have Republicans found success in reaching out to black voters on some of the

issues you just mentioned? So we are seeing Republicans trying to identify key places where they can try and shore up a good number of black voters. I think the reality is, is black voters have been the most consistent voter base for Democrats. So I think it's safe to say we're not going to see a significant amount of voters suddenly switch to the Republican Party. But what they're hoping for is can we get just enough to flip somebody's key states? So they're trying to get on the ground, get into some of these communities, and particularly make inroads. We're seeing some black men who are saying, hey, Biden isn't speaking to me. But I'm kind of interested in what the Republicans are saying. so let me hear them out.

But others are saying it's kind of hard for us to separate the party from some of the inflammatory, racist rhetoric that they have seen. So I think we can't say yet for sure how that's going to turn out, but they are definitely on the ground in these communities trying to build up at least some semblance of a voter base. But I think they have to answer some tough questions in regards to how are you actually going to do something for black. Americans when you have this history that a lot of people are quite uncomfortable with.

And I just want to say one other point on President Biden. While I think that there's a lot of frustration and anger in this moment for a lot of reasons, there are also a lot of people out there who are ready to get out the vote. They are organizing right now. A lot of voter advocates are getting the buses ready. They're talking to the churches, trying to figure out how to get out in the community. to galvanize voters in the same way that they did in 2020. So while there's a lot of skepticism, anger, frustration on the ground, on the flip side,

there are people who are excited and they really see this election as the determination of what America's democracy is going to be in the future. Immigration reporter Ted Heson was on the southern border this week when both Biden and Trump faced off. They desperately need more resources. They need more agents, more officers, more judges, more equipment in order to secure our border. These are the people that are coming into our country. And they're coming from jails and they're coming from prisons and they're coming from mental institutions. The dueling visits reflect how immigration is playing a big role in voters' concerns this year.

And for a growing number of Latino voters, that issue is even more complicated. But it's not necessarily the only one that will. decide their vote. Ted, you spoke with Latinos in Nevada. What are some of the things you're hearing? So Nevada is one of a handful of key battleground states in the coming presidential election. And President Biden beat President Trump there by a narrow margin in 2020. At the moment, former President Trump is leading in the polls. And it's an area of concern for Biden. He's taken on this tougher immigration messaging. And the idea is that nationally, he wants to be a lot of to perform better with voters and show that he's addressing the issue.

But there's also a risk associated with that, too. And it could potentially alienate more progressive voters, Latinos, who care about the immigration issue and would like to see policies that protect asylum seekers. That's one of the things that came out in conversations with one community organizer, Rico Ocampo, who's with an organization called Make the Road Nevada. This is not the way that we thought he was going to reform the immigration system. And they regularly go out and talk to people in immigrant communities, people in Latino communities, and have conversations about voting at times. And during some of his conversations, what he's hearing is that people were turned off.

Latinos in Nevada in particular were turned off by the tougher stance that Biden was taking. He came in chanting. He said, yes, we can. And now he's essentially chanting through his decisions. No, we can't. No, said we can. And I think there's a frustration element that. comes with that, with the borders that we're speaking to.

And also that President Biden hasn't done enough on the issue of immigration for them. Specifically, what they'd like to see is more affirmative relief for people that lack immigration status, more protections and ways to be in the country legally and to work legally. So he's really got to thread the needle here, do enough to reassure both sides without losing either. It's a balancing act, and it'll be a balancing act for, Biden in the general election and specifically in a state like Nevada where there's a 3.2 million residents in Nevada and a third of them are Hispanic. One in five of them are foreign-born.

And in particular, there are several powerful unions that will turn out the vote for Democratic candidates there. And one, for example, is the culinary union that has 60,000 members based in Las Vegas. And the majority of those members are foreign-born. Immigration is a huge priority for that Union, and they've said they would like to see more deportation relief for people that are here illegally, support for programs that allow people to get work permits if they've been in the country and they're following the rules. They're supportive of President Biden, but energizing their voters and getting people out may be more of a challenge if presidents out there with this tougher message saying that the border needs to be shut down. And Republicans are making inroads with

Latino voters. Are Democrats concerned at all about that? I think what you see is that in recent election cycles in the last 10 years or so, Republicans have made progress with Latino voters across the U.S. and in certain states that will be key to this election as well. One thing we noticed when we looked at Nevada, we looked at data from this liberal data and analysis firm called Catalyst. And even though they saw that Republicans were making inroads with Latinos in Nevada, they saw that from 2020, to 2022, Latino support for Democratic candidates held steady at about 60%. And I think that from the Biden campaign perspective, maintaining that is almost a baseline at this point towards victory.

And when you look at current polling and you see President Trump with an edge in those states, you could easily see why the campaign may want to energize Latino supporters there and turn out more. I think it's a tricky equation because Latinos are not a voting block. It's not a monolith. It's not that, you know, all Latino voters are going to come out and vote for one vision of immigration policy. So just like many voters, President Biden's trying to play two sides of the same coin and say that he can be tough on the border, but he can also be humane and not be as hard line as his opponent here, Donald Trump, when it comes to people who are in the country illegally now. Right, right.

And to your point, these voters, they might be more focused on the price of food or gas or maybe education, right? It's not just all about immigration policy. That's right. And I've seen polling on the Latino electorate that's shown strong support for, say, a path to citizenship for people in the country legally, but also significant support for stepping up controls at the border. So it's possible to hold both views to want to say that people who are here already should have a way to find work permits and stay legally. And that also we do need more control and we need a better way to manage the border. And I think President Biden is trying to find the sweet spot there. It is a tightrope act,

and he still has months to go before the election. Some of that could even be defined by what actually happens there. Crossings rose in December to the highest number for a single month on record and then fell by about 50% in January and have remained slow since then. I think if things remain on the quieter side, this issue is easier for Biden to manage. If levels rise back to record levels or beyond, it becomes much more challenging. Now, the voters we talked about today are in no way intended to be an exhaustive list. There are other demographics, states, and even counties that will be key to who becomes our next president. We'll have plenty more discussion on Reuters World News about who they are

in the weeks and months ahead. You can follow along with all the action on Super Tuesday and the election on Reuters.com or in the Reuters app. Special thanks to Heather Timmons, Nandita Bose, Omar Eunice, Julio Cesar Chavez, Kat Stafford, and Ted Heson for all their work for this podcast, as well as the entire U.S. elections team. Reuters World News is produced this week and every week by Jonah Green, Gail Issa, David Spencer, and myself, Christopher Waljasper. Our host is Kim Vennel.

Our senior producer is Carmel Crimmons, executive producer Lila Decretzer, sound design, engineering, and music composition by Josh Summer. We'll be back on Monday with our regular show. Listen in every weekday for everything you need to know about your world in 10 minutes. And if you haven't already, subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite podcast player. If you like what you hear, we'd love it if you shared this episode with a friend. You can also hear us every day when you download the Reuters app.