Reuters World News - Inside Israeli politics

Episode Date: January 27, 2024

On International Holocaust Remembrance Day, hear from our correspondents about the view of the war from inside Israel. And how that's affecting politics and the rule of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When my father heard what happened, that there's nowhere to come back. There's no home anymore. He said, if you put him a million dollar in his hand, he doesn't take it and he doesn't want to put his foot anymore in Poland. And of course, and then he decided we're going only to Israel. That's Holocaust survivor Sarah Jackson. She was four years old when the war broke out. She and her family experienced years of hiding loss and deprivation in Poland and Siberia

before finally finding a home in Israel in 1949. On October 7th, Jackson sheltered three Israelis fleeing the deadliest attack on Jews since World War II. I couldn't believe, I couldn't believe it's happening again. And even now, I couldn't, even now, I can't understand, I can't take it that things like happened again. Today is International Holocaust Remembrance Day. The world remembers the some six million Jews

systematically murdered by the Nazis in German-occupied Europe. Inside Israel, the mourning is infinitely magnified by the October 7th attacks. Grief for those killed by Hamas gunmen. Fears for the hostages who remain in Gaza. And questions over Israel's security and its ability to protect Jews like Jackson in the future. All happening is the death toll in Gaza rises to more than 26,000, according to health officials. And the International Court of Justice demands, Israel prevent acts of genocide.

On this special podcast, we speak to our correspondence about the view of the war from inside Israel and how that's affecting politics and the rule of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. I'm your host, Carmel Crimmons, in Dublin. I'm joined today by two correspondents who, between them, have been covering politics in Israel for decades. All right, wait, I'll pull them off.

Dan Williams and Maya and Lubel are in Jerusalem. Both of them have been covering the atrocities on the ground amacinations in the corridors of power ever since the October 7th attacks. They're joining me today from a busy news bureau. So Dan and Mayan, thank you so much for joining me. Our pleasure, good to be with you. Thanks for having us.

So Mayan, we're more than 100 days into this conflict, but yet Israel has yet to capture any of the top Hamas leaders inside Gaza. There have also been some heavy Israeli military casualties this week, in fact, and more than 100 hostages are to. still being held captive in Gaza. How is all that being viewed inside Israel? Well, support among the Israeli public is still very strong for the war, even though support for the Prime Minister for Netanyahu is actually on the fall politically. Still, the Israeli public is behind the military. They still want to see Hamas removed from

power in Gaza. They want to see the hostages back. Having said that, you can see increasingly over the past week or two, there have been more protests and growing impatience, I would say, among some because the hostages are still in there. How do people in Israel feel about the idea of a ceasefire to get the hostages out? That's an excellent question. If you ask a relative of a hostage or a campaigner for the hostages, they will increasingly allege that Israel has been dragging its feet on a ceasefire. This doesn't quite correspond with what we understand are the conditions of Hamas, which is one of the belligerent parties in this war. Hamas and Islamic Jihad, an allied Palestinian group, have said pretty much from

the outset that for a total release of the hostages, and that really is the core issue for many Israelis, in addition to the Second War goal of permanently removing the Hamas threat from Gaza, for a total release of hostages, Hamas and Islamic Jihad would expect a total release. by Israel of Palestinian security prisoners. Now, that does not just refer to those captured during the October 7th attack, nor those captured in Gaza. It refers to all Palestinian security prisoners, some 11,000 of them, some of them serving multiple life sentences for major attacks dating back 20, 30 years. That really is a non-starter for many Israelis. And I think what is happening here is there is a generalized, highly heated and highly emotive discussion in Israel about the need

for a ceasefire without necessarily knowing the full extent of the demands. Now, there are talks underway. They're mediated talks because Hamas doesn't engage with Israel. They've been mediated by Qatar, by Egypt, to a lesser degree by the United States. There may be a role for Turkey eventually. and we've been told that a new round of those talks is happening right now. We cannot know exactly what is being discussed, but to judge by the core positions set by both sides. Hamas wants to retain power in Gaza. It wants a total withdrawal of Israeli forces

and a confirmed permanent end of this Israeli offensive, and it wants a full release of Palestinian security prisoners numbering, as I said, as much as 11,000 by Israel. Israel, meanwhile, wants all hostages back, and the destruction of Hamas, or at least the destruction of its military and governance capabilities in Gaza. So to judge from the public positions, a ceasefire is nowhere near close, because those would appear irreconcilable. We cannot know to what the efforts to reconcile them in these secret talks have succeeded,

but for now, there appears to be a lot of churning emotion on both side without necessarily leading to a conclusion to this. So on that issue of hostages, though, my aunt, we've seen the families of the hostages ramp up their protests. Is that resonating with the public? You know, are we seeing something change? Because they've been protesting almost since the start, since October 7th. But it feels like the ante has been upped.

So is that changing things, perhaps, in the political ether? I think that's a really good question. Yes, the protests have been getting more intense. They've also taken on the contours of, of protests that were sweeping Israel way before the war. They're sometimes reinforced by those kind of anti-government protests. But these protests are much smaller than the ones that Israel saw throughout the year up until the war.

We'll see over the next few weeks whether these protests begin to draw more and more people. They have been drawing more people. I think the difficulty in quantifying this is there are a few moving parts here. Is the intensity of the protest rising because of a natural and completely understandable frustration and worry among the hostages for the fate of their loved ones, that they might be undergoing abuse, that they might be

undergoing parlous medical conditions, possibly even dying in the course of the Israeli offensive. Is that what's speaking here exclusively, or are they actually stepping up the intensity because they're worrying that there is a fading of a national focus on this issue as the months go along. Naturally, time does what it does, national priorities could change. It's worth stating that the hostages are described routinely by Israeli leaders as the number one priority. But it's also worth noting that much of Israel has gone back to routine after the entire country was really gridlocked by shock in the first month or few weeks of the war. So I imagine many of these relatives, many of their sympathizers and campaigners are looking at countrymen returning to a routine. It's worth

noting here, by the way, that 11 of the hostages are foreign, non-Israeli, and a good number of Israeli hostages have second passports. Nonetheless, as an Israeli-called celebrity, I think there is a concern among the campaigners that perhaps this is dropping off the national agenda, at least shrinking in the national agenda. So they see intensifying as a way of counterbalancing that and keeping minds focused on a major humanitarian issue for Israel. I would actually be, I would be cautious, though, about saying that that's actually what is happening, that it's not, I think it's still number one at the top of the agenda. And I think it's also definitely on people's minds and in people's hearts and lots of

parents, you know, think about when there's interviews all the time, the media all the time with either hostages released or relatives, it's there all the time. And I'm sure so many, you know, Israel is such a small society and close-knit. People just put themselves in that position. Everyone knows someone who was killed. Everyone knows someone who is taking hostage. Everyone knows someone who's been called up and is now inside Gaza trying to win the war for Israel. So I think that it's still very much at the top of the agenda for Israeli society.

Okay. I think what might have been illuminating is the storming this week of a session of the Parliamentary Finance Committee by some 2,000 protesters. campaigners for hostage release. The placards they're carrying said, you won't sit here while they're dying there, in reference to the hostages. That clearly bespoke frustration and concern

that at least some of the machinery of government was chugging along and the country was basically moving along without necessarily keeping in mind these 132 people left behind. And also within Netanyahu's war cabinet, right, there have been people who have questioned the strategy around the hostages, right? That's a tough one. What we have, beyond dispute, is an interview given to Israel's

flagship current affairs program. It's really the Israeli equivalent of 60 Minutes in the United States or Panorama in Britain. This is a man called Gaddi Eisencott, a former chief of the military, former top general. He's also in a form of a form of a form. formerly opposition centrist party, which joined this conservative government in an emergency arrangement after the war broke out. Now, he's one of the five people in the war cabinet. These really are the men running the war day to day hour to hour. In December, he lost both a son and a nephew who was serving as soldiers in Gaza. He lost them to the fighting. So he has certainly been a man who's gotten a lot of attention and sympathy. In Israel, he's generally

considered popular and reliable by many Israelis, although of course now he's politically aligned and presumably has a political interest. He gave an interview in which he basically argued that a military release of all the hostages was not feasible and effectively putting forward the case that Israel needs to close the deal, even at the cost he said of not being able to kill the commander of Hamas in Gaza. Now he talked about a very specific target, a very specific man, a very specific mission, but his remarks were widely read as saying, listen, we may have to actually relent on this one war goal of destroying Hamas in order to achieve the other war goal of retrieving all hostages. And I think it's been obvious from the outset that Israel has put

forward these two goals, which on the face of it would appear hard to reconcile. How do you, on the one hand, pursue the destruction of a diehard enemy like Hamas, while on the other seeking the return through diplomacy talks duress of at least some of the hostages on the assumption you can't achieve a military release. Surely that requires, to a degree, the cooperation of the very enemy you're trying to destroy. I think people have been aware of this. I think that's also been brought home by the failure of classic military efforts to bring about the release of hostages. There was one hostage who was recovered alive in a military operation. There were three hostages who managed to extricate themselves from captivity and were accidentally shot dead by the very troops sent in to rescue them.

And also there are a number of bodies that retrieved from the field and the circumstances of their deaths remain not entirely clear. But I think it's beyond argument that so far Israel has not succeeded militarily in freeing the hostages. And when you have an ex-general and a member of the war cabinet saying publicly, forget about, in his words, an Entebbe-style rescue, and Tebi being the famous 1976 rescue by Israel in the heart of Africa of airline hostages abducted by a pro-Palestinian group when a man like that says something like this,

I think it's aimed to make the public and perhaps even the Prime Minister question and review the stated aims of the wall. But speaking of those military aims, there are other members of Netanyahu's coalition, the right-wing members, who very much want him to maintain this tough line. So he's kind of, you sort of feel like,

There's pressure on many different fronts, Mayan. Is that fair? Well, I think that's, that is fair. I mean, they say they want him to maintain this tough line. These ministers who are not inside the war cabinet, they have no, really no say in how the war is being conducted. And it's quite easy for them to level criticism. There resounds with their own right-wing base. So these are, namely, they are the finance minister Smotrich and the police minister Ben-Gvier. So one could say that they're also, they're trying to distinguish themselves and set themselves apart because they can also see a political opportunity here. Netanyahu's taking a hit in the polls and his Likud Party is taking a hit in the polls and everyone's to win back the right wing voters. So if you pursue this tough line and make tough decisions, you're also catering to your own base, basically.

Is that what's also driving Netanyahu's political calculus, that without a war, perhaps, there's no job? There is such speculation, but no one knows what's driving Netanyahu. Netanyahu himself has said that he is not doing any kind of politics right now. He's focused on winning the war. He's dismissed any kind of talk like he's campaigning. He's dismissed any talk of bringing forward the elections. He's been saying that the failures of October 7th will be investigated fully and that his own conduct will be up for review, but right now he's focused on winning the war. He appears to be set on surviving this situation politically. It does seem like some of his messaging is also aimed at his own base.

He's been accentuating his differences with the US about Palestinian statehood. He's been bringing that issue up of late, restating his long-held demands when it comes to Palestinian statehood. I mean, that has been striking, right? I mean, he very publicly said he opposed a two-saint solution, which is what the US has repeatedly called for. It kind of feels like he's giving the US the back of the hand. It would appear this way.

It seems like quite a big non-sequitur, given what's a... actually happening. I don't think anyone is seriously talking now about an imminent deal on Palestinian statehood. It's a concept that possibly the Americans revisited, possibly European powers revisited in what they saw as a necessary rounding out of their support for Israel's war in Gaza. You know, on the one hand, there is crushing force being applied on the other. I imagine they said, we need to give a horizon to everyone that this will lead to a better future. But Netanyahu certainly would have appeared to have been picking a fight with the Americans. The question is who raised it first. A few weeks ago, he started talking about Palestinian statehood being a non-starter for him.

It may be he decided to initiate it. It may be that he received word in private conversations that Western partners would be revisiting this idea. And he decided to publicly put them on notice. It's not something he was interested in pursuing. But I think it's beyond question that when it comes to current coalition, keeping the more right-wing members happy, does require disavowing on a regular basis this idea of a Palestinian state. And I think it actually goes beyond the far right or the right-wing. I think many Israelis seeing what happened in what is arguably, or what was arguably a rump state, a polity of a nascent Palestinian state, reduced one in Gaza, what Hamas managed to mount from that territory on October 7th. Really, a large-scale.

infantry attacked with rockets, with large-scale abductions, I think many Israelis outside the far right or conservative circles will say, well, is this really something we could trust? So I'm not sure his view, it might not be well received by the Biden administration, I'm not sure it rang hollow or unnecessary among many Israelis. I think at the same time as well, Netanyahu said that he still believes and he still wants to push for a wider peace or diplomatic agreements, normalization agreements with other Arab states, namely Saudi Arabia, who have put forth Palestinian statehood as a condition. So there are many contradictions within as well.

Maybe it's a question we can't even answer. Like, how long can you publicly oppose your main ally? We are seeing the US perhaps hard on its criticism of Israel. It's a high-risk strategy. This is Netanyahu's expertise. tease almost. He's always walking a tight rope between Washington and his own coalition, especially this coalition government, the most far right in Israel's history. So you'll probably see a lot of talk and basically nothing happened in the end. There's a very high chance of an early

election, even if Netanyahu doesn't want it. His only Kuwait party is feeling the heat. And his own image as Mr. Security in Israel was terribly dented by the October 7th attack. So probably you'll see a lot of political acrobatics from Netanyahu. And he's had plenty of experience, years of experience doing that. I think it's worth remembering it's also an election year in the United States. This administration may be talking up the idea of Palestinian statehood. And given what's happening now, state side, it could be that Netanyahu is reading that map and seeing a likely return of a Republican president, perhaps even a likely return to the White House of President Trump,

and thinking that right now what is hearing from the Democratic administration of Biden, is short-lived. It might even be lip service that Biden needs in order to keep some of his own Democratic Party on side as he enters an election. Netanyahu lost the support of the Israeli public after the October 7th attacks. The polls show that. But is it possible that he has a political future? Well, it's very hard to see him coming back from this simply because of the nature of this war. There's no glorious victory that can be achieved at this point in time, I think. It's a soldiers are going house to house, tunnel to tunnel. It's a long and dirty war. So it's hard to see his redemption coming from there. It's really hard to see. It's really hard to see that happening,

but never say never. And has it changed Israeli politics? I think that something you've been seen consistently since the October 7th attack is Benny Gantz, the former Israeli defense chief rising in the polls, and in a sense he's the anti-netoniao. He lacks charisma. He's a lot less telegenic, but he somehow comes off as extremely reliable and a man of the people and a true centrist. I think there'll definitely be a day after reckoning in Israel. The focus of it will be Netanyahu. He's already went into his 70s. He's already had a record long tenure as prime minister.

The question is whether he'll survive this round or be bounced out by an Israeli electorate and even by his own party who really think that Mr. Security, that's how he's style themselves over the years, failed unforgivably for them on October 7th. The question is whether this will reform an already fractured Israeli politics significantly. That's yet to be seen because as we've seen the coalition, Israelis veer in all sorts of directions during routine times. So they may come together during war, but once this is settled, we'll probably see that phenomenon recurred. Get your passion in a

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with Shopify. Empecia to start your period of month in Shopify. coms bar records. Thanks very much to Mayan and Dan for all their insights

and to all our correspondence in the Middle East, covering the ongoing war and teams around the world covering Holocaust memorials today. The Reuters World News podcast is produced by myself, Chris Waljasper, Jonah Green, Tara Oaks and David Spencer. Kim Vinal is our regular host. Lila de Kretzer is our executive producer. Engineering and sound design by Josh Summer.

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