Reuters World News - Iran's $200 oil warning, trade probes, school strike and Lebanon

Episode Date: March 12, 2026

Tankers burn and Iran says the world should be prepared for oil prices to soar, as major economies release barrels from their strategic reserves. Investigators think the U.S. military may have been responsible for a strike on a girls’ school on the first day of the war. Around 800,000 people in Lebanon have left their homes as the Israeli campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah widens. Plus, a train from Pyongyang to Beijing sets off for the first time in six years. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast ⁠⁠here⁠⁠. Sign up for the Reuters Econ World newsletter ⁠⁠here⁠⁠.  Listen to the Reuters Econ World podcast ⁠⁠here⁠⁠. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices.  You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hi, I'm Kim Vinal in Wanganui, New Zealand. It's Thursday, March 12th. Today, tankers burn in the Middle East, as Iran warns the world should prepare for oil at $200 a barrel. Outdated targeting data may be involved in the U.S. striking an Iranian girl's school. And the Trump administration opens new unfair trade probes to rebuild tariff pressure. This is Reuters World News, bringing you everything you need to know from the front lines in 10 minutes, seven days a week. A witness captures footage of an oil tanker on fire off the coast of Iraq, the vessel sending huge fireballs and plumes of black smoke into the air. It's one of two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, which appear to have been attacked by Iranian-controlled boats laden with explosives. Iran is stepping up its attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East,

and is warning the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel. Spokesman for the Iranian armed forces, Ibrahim Zolfiqari, says Iran will not allow even a single liter of oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz if that oil is going to benefit the U.S. or Israel. The U.S., meanwhile, will release more than 170 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserve in a bid to reduce rocketing oil prices, part of a bigger release of 400 million barrels by nations signed up to the International Energy Agency. And U.S. President Donald Trump has said there's another way the U.S. could help. When the time comes, the U.S. Navy and his partners will escort tankers through the strait if needed.

But our global shipping reporter Jonathan Saul says in reality the US Navy isn't yet prepared to act. The industry has essentially been requesting on a daily basis since February 28th, support from the US in the form of escorts or some military help. But in actuality, they are being told that the US Navy is not prepared at this stage to commit due to the complexities involved and the risks faced not just by the commercial. ships, but also by military craft in the strait. We've seen up to 14 vessels that have been hit either directly or indirectly from everything from projectiles to missiles and of course drones. So the Iranians have got an array of options available to them and this is why the majority

of shipping traffic has come to a halt. By that I mean that they've actually dropped anchor literally and they're sort of clustered around different parts of the Gulf area. What has moved so far have been a few tankers and a few dry bulk vessels. For news on the impact of all of this on the markets, tune in to our sister podcast Morning Bid, available wherever you get your podcasts. A strike on an Iranian girls elementary school, one that could rank among the worst civilian casualty incidents

in decades of US conflicts, may have been using outdated American targeting data. That's according to two sources Reuters spoke to. Some 175 girls and school staff were killed in the attack on the first day of the war, according to Iran's UN ambassador. Deliberately attacking a school, hospital or any other civilian structure would likely be a war crime under international law. Here's Reuters' foreign policy correspondent, Idris Ali.

But it was really one of the most deadly, if not the most deadly strike, that the United States has taken. when we reported that military investigators had found that the United States was likely responsible. We have seen social media videos and videos from Iran of what appears to be a Tomahawk missile striking either the school or near the school. And it's important to know that in this conflict, the only site that has Tomahawk missiles is the United States. Iran does not have Tomahawk missiles that can be used. In the U.S., Senate Democrats have signed a letter to,

Defense Secretary Pete Hegeseth, calling for a swift investigation into the school strike and any other potential U.S. military actions which may have injured or killed civilians. The Pentagon has maintained the position that the U.S. does not intentionally target civilians and is investigating the school attack. President Trump's response, however, has changed over time. At the beginning, he said Iran was responsible. When he was pressed on it, he said, well, Iran has Tom Hocs, which they don't, and he has eventually landed on there's an investigation ongoing. Idri says in addition to the two sources who told Reuters that the US may have been using

this outdated targeting information in this attack, Reuters' journalists have also been looking at location data. We have and our colleagues have gone over archive copies of the school's website, and in there you can see that the school is adjacent to a IRGC, which is Iranian or Islamic Revolution Garkar compound. And so you can sort of see that this school was at the very least located close to a potential military target. In Reuters exclusive, U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran's leadership remains largely intact and in control, nearly two weeks into the sustained US and Israeli strikes. One source who Reuters spoke to said a multitude of intelligence reports

conclude that there is no immediate risk of the government collapsing, despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamini and other senior figures. All of the sources Reuters spoke to were granted anonymity to discuss US intelligence findings. The intel underscores how difficult it may be for Washington to find an off-ramp and comes as the Trump administration gives Congress an initial price tag for the war. A source says officials put the cost of just a source. just the first six days at over $11 billion. Overnight explosions rocked Beirut's southern suburbs

as Israel continues to target Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. That widening of the war has now displaced some 800,000 people, according to Lebanese officials. That's over a tenth of Lebanon's entire population. Those who fled describe grueling journeys. Like Ali Ali, who fled from southern Lebanon to Saigon. He says the journey took him 18 hours on the road, without breaks for food or rest. Families are taking refuge where they can, including in a school in Saigon.

Enas Badran says she's grateful for the initiative. It's offered her family a place to cook and to shower. Lebanese authorities say nearly 600 people have been killed. killed in the strike so far, including more than 80 children, according to the World Health Organization. The FBI warned law enforcement agencies last month that Iran could try to retaliate for any U.S. strikes by launching surprise drone attacks on California. That's according to a security bulletin seen by Reuters. The confidential alert issued before the war began, said Iran allegedly aspired to carry out a drone attack launched from a sea vessel if the

U.S. struck Iran, though it stressed there was no information on timing, targets or perpetrators. President Trump is reopening the tariff playbook again after the Supreme Court knocked out a big part of his earlier tariff program. The administration has launched new trade investigations into 16 major trading partners, including China, the European Union, Japan, India, South Korea and Mexico. correspondent David Lauder in Washington, D.C., has more. What the Trump administration is doing here is it's trying to rebuild the pressure that it had on other countries that the Supreme Court struck down. The Trump administration immediately put in place some temporary tariffs that last for 150 days, 10%. But that's not a lot of lasting leverage.

They negotiated all these trade deals over the last year, so they feel like they have to try to keep them from all falling apart. that's kind of the motivation behind this. I don't think it's an immediate kind of a situation, though. We're talking a few months before you actually get to the point where you're imposing tariffs. And finally, a 24-hour train ride from Beijing to Pyongyang. It's setting off today, the first passenger train service between China and North Korea after a six-year pause. It's part of a series of moves by. Beijing to rebuild ties between the two countries. Now, before we go, we wanted to make sure you know

that the video version of this podcast is now available on YouTube as well as on Spotify. And we also want to make sure you know that we are listening to you. So we have a question. What do you want to know about the Iran War? Let us know your questions in the comments and we'll answer some of them in tomorrow's episode. For more on any of the stories from today, check out Reuters.com or the Reuters app. Don't forget to follow us on your favorite podcast player. If you're listening on a smart speaker,

just ask for the latest news from Reuters seven days a week. We'll be back tomorrow with our daily headline show.