Reuters World News - Modi’s narrow lead in India, Hunter Biden gun case and Iran-backed allies in Iraq

Episode Date: June 4, 2024

India’s Narendra Modi is on track for a historic third term but may fall short of the landslide victory predicted. The jury is seated and will hear opening statements in Hunter Biden’s federal gun case. And Iranian-backed groups operating in Iraq have ramped up rocket and missile attacks on Israel. Sign up for the Reuters Econ World newsletter here. Listen to the Reuters Econ World podcast here. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today, votes are being counted in India, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi's hopes for a landslide could be dashed. A jury has been chosen and will hear opening statements in Hunter Biden's gun case. And Iran-backed groups in Iraq ramp up rocket and missile attacks on Israel. It's Tuesday, June 4th. This is Reuters World News, bringing you everything you need to know from the front lines in 10 minutes every weekday. I'm Tara Oakes. in Liverpool. New Delhi, and counting in the world's largest election, where India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi,

looks set to fall short of the landslide victory many had predicted. His alliance raced to a majority early on, but not with the big numbers seen in exit polls. Christian Kausik is in New Delhi and is monitoring the count. So how is Modi placed right now, Christian? What we are seeing at the moment is that even the alliance is unable to touch the 300 mark as of now. If these trends hold true, that means Modi's Bhartya-Janta party will be well shot of the halfway mark of 272. It doesn't mean that he has to sit out of power, but it definitely

means that he will not have the free hand and the free reign that he had in the first two terms where the party had a majority of its own. Is there any indication yet as to why Modi's not done as well as expected? A few obvious answers, of course, are the issues that people had been discussing throughout the entire campaign phase, is the issue of unemployment, is the issue of incomes not going up in the agricultural belt of India and the rural parts of India. There are indications from certain polls that the youth did not vote for the Modi this time and unemployment is a definite factor for that. Along with that, the opposition has definitely done much better than expected in certain states, certain key states. So when will we know the

full result and what's going to happen next? The final result might take several more hours. It could go late into the night. It's only by Wednesday that we will definitely know how many seats each party has won. Once that has happened, if the BJP by itself is well short of the halfway mark, there could be a lot of political negotiations, a lot of haggling between the allied parties who become the kingmakers then. With Modi struggling to win a majority of seats, Indian stocks have tanked. Carmel Crimmons has more. So India's main stock index has tumbled as much as eight and a half percent in Mumbai. That's the biggest intraday drop in four years. Investors are spooked because Modi's BJP party is unlikely to win an overwhelming majority, as originally

predicted by exit polls. That could mean a new government isn't able to push through land and labour reforms that are seen as crucial for India's economic growth. India's sovereign bonds and the rupee fell. And speaking of currencies. Yes, Carmel. Tomorrow's episode of Reuters Econ World, my new weekly podcast, is actually all about currencies and specifically the dollar, how it affects you whether you live in the United States or not. Sounds great. I hope so. You can catch it on Reuters.com or your favourite podcast player.

The Israeli military has said another four hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7th have died in captivity. All four were previously filmed alive in hostage videos posted by Hamas. Hamas has said that one of the men died of wounds sustained during an Israeli air strike. I've changed my mind. It's allowed you now. Former Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage announcing that he is going to stand in the UK election after all for the right-wing reform party. He had previously said he would not run in order to help Donald Trump's election campaign. After the announcement, Farage posted a video to social media, soundtracked by Eminem's hit Without Me.

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Rishu Sunat and Labour leader Kirstama will go head to head on Tuesday. in their first televised debate ahead of a July 4th election. Just days after former President Donald Trump was found guilty in his hush money trial, a jury has been sworn in for Hunter Biden's trial. The president's son is accused of failing to disclose his drug use when he bought a gun in 2018 and of illegally possessing the weapon. He has pleaded not guilty to the three felony charges. Reporter Tom Hals was at the federal courthouse in Wilmington, Delaware.

So, Tom, what should we expect from the first day of testimony? Well, today we're expecting the U.S. Special Counsel David Weiss. He's the one leading the case. He'll be calling. He said his first witness will be Erica Jensen. She is a special agent for the FBI. And in court papers prior to the trial, they described her as a witness who will explain Hunter Biden's drug addiction, who will go through portions of Hunter Biden's autobiography, where he said he lived every day at the demand of the crack pipe or some phrase like. that. And the FBI agent will also go through messages that the authorities collected from Hunter Biden's phone, Hunter Biden's laptop, Hunter Biden's ICloud account. And at least in pretrial papers that were filed with the court, they showed that those messages were connecting with what they claimed were street-level drug dealers to gain crack and things like that. So it could be a kind of

ugly first day for Hunter Biden. What's the sentence like for something like this? The Department of Justice says he faces up to 25 years. That would be a maximum sentence. The Department of Justice was also careful to say defendants in these kind of cases rarely get the maximum. What's been the president's response so far? He's been very supportive. He's always been very supportive of Hunter Biden. He put out a statement on Monday saying he stands by his son, he loves his son. He's careful to say in that statement that as president, he would not intervene in any way in a court case.

The fact the case is being brought, I guess, shows that the DOJ had a free hand in going after Hunter Biden. What's the political impact of such a trial against a sitting president's son? Having his son's drug addiction dragged through the media and being a media focus for a week or maybe more, you can see that being a hard thing for his campaign and making it difficult for him to get a message out. But on the other hand, it's genuine problems that a lot of families are dealing with. So maybe it's possible it'll generate sympathy for the Biden family and support for the way Joe Biden has really stood by his son. Iran-backed Shiite-armed groups in Iraq have ramped up rocket and missile attacks on Israel in recent weeks,

raising concerns of potential Israeli retaliation and regional escalation should they draw blood. Both Washington and some of the group's Iranian allies are watching the increasingly sophisticated attacks with unease. Timor Azahi is our Iraq bureau chief based in Baghdad. So Timor, these groups are allied with Iran, but their attacks are going further than some of Iran would like, right? Yeah, it's really interesting. The groups and the access of resistance, you know, this regional network of Iranian allies, while they are all sort of strategically aligned, they don't always agree on everything. And what we hear from sources is that this is one of the cases where there's some unease in Iran, but also among Hezbollah. The unease centers on what some

in the axis see as the headstrong and kind of reckless nature of some of these Iraqi groups. So why can't Iran or Iraq, where they're based more successful? reign them in. In Iraq, the government is in a tight spot. This government was formed with the backing of some Iran-backed armed groups. There's been a lot of anger over Israel's Gaza campaign, and it's difficult for the government of Iraq, which has no relations with Israel and doesn't recognize Israel, to kind of come out and say, stop attacking the Israelis when there's so much popular anger against them. For Iran, they do have the power to intervene. We saw that in January when the guards commander came here and told them to tone down their attacks on U.S. forces, and they did. But at the same time, Iran doesn't

necessarily have an on-off switch for the resistance groups in the region. You could sort of think of it perhaps as more as a dimmer. They can dim the attacks a bit, but it's important for these groups also to feel like they have some level of independence. So what's at stake if these attacks continue and have greater success in hitting Israeli targets? Many of the officials we spoke to said that if these attacks managed to draw blood in Israel if they hit military or civilian infrastructure and cause injuries or damage, that could lead to Israeli retaliation in Iraq. That could then set off a spiral of violence. The drone and missile attacks that are being undertaken by the Iraqi factions have to pass over Syria, Jordan, and perhaps also Saudi Arabia to get to Israel. So there's always a chance

that they could hit something on the way. And there's a risk as well that Washington could be drawn into this, right? Yeah, so the US has troops in Syria and in Iraq, and after the Gaza war, they were facing near constant daily attacks by these Iraqi groups. Now, those have stopped, but US officials told us that US forces in the region, including in Iraq, have been intercepting these drones and rockets fired at Israel. Now, that would be very controversial in Iraq and potentially could also draw the US further into this conflict. That's it for Tuesday. We'll be back tomorrow with our daily headline show. And don't forget that tomorrow

we'll have a new episode of Econ World Podcast 2. To never miss an episode of Reuters World News or Econ World, subscribe on your favourite podcast player or download the Reuters app.