Reuters World News - The rules of war in Gaza, rate pauses on both sides of the pond and Musk in the UK

Episode Date: November 2, 2023

Israel’s justification for airstrikes on a Palestinian refugee camp has sparked a debate over the rules of war. Elon Musk and Kamala Harris in the UK as Britain publishes the Bletchley Declaration work to find a way to mitigate the dangers of AI. And a pause on rate hikes - but what comes next for the global economy? Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today, Israel's justification for air strikes on a Palestinian refugee camp sparks a debate over the rules of war. A pause for now on rate hikes on both sides of the Atlantic, but policymakers suggest it's still a guess about what comes next for the global economy. And Elon Musk visits 10 Downing Street to interview Prime Minister Rishi Sunak after a landmark AI declaration. It's Thursday, November 2nd. This is Reuters World News, bringing you everything you need to know from the front lines in 10 minutes.

Every weekday. I'm Kim Vinal in London. Hamas, there's nearly 200 Palestinians died in Israeli attacks on Gaza's largest refugee camp. Israel said its strikes killed two Hamas military leaders in Jabalya and claimed Hamas had command centers there. That's rare admiral Daniel Higari, Israel's military spokesperson, saying that the ensuing collapse of underground tunnels below the camp proved Hamas was using civilians as human shields.

But this justification is doing little to persuade Israel's critics and even some of its allies. The European Union's top diplomat Joseph Borrell said he was appalled by the high number of casualties following the strike and added that while Israel has a right to defend itself, it must do so within international humanitarian law. James McKenzie is Bureau Chief for Israel and the Palestinian territories. James, what is Israel's strategy in striking these locations? The Israeli position is that they strike targets where they think there are Hamas command centers or Hamas firing positions or positions of infrastructure, this kind of thing. And they say that Hamas hides these positions in sites like hospitals, and that it's therefore

Hamas's responsibility when these places are hit. They say they take all the precautions they can to prevent civilian casualties, but they consider the targets important enough to hit in any case. From the Israeli official position is that they do everything they can to reduce civilian casualties. Of course, Palestinians do. don't see it that way. They see it as a strategy of deliberately targeting civilians with the idea of driving them out and pushing them out of their homes, and depending on who's talking, deliberately killing them or deliberately targeting them in any case. Beyond what each side is saying about how intentional this is and how whatever precautions are taken, the fact is that

heavy bombardment of urban areas will cause severe civilian casualties. White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby on Tuesday was asked whether this strike violated the rules of war. Would it mean they violated the laws of war, given what we've seen? I'm not going to speculate on an internet that I really have no information on. That would be really, really imprudent for me to do. But what even are the rules of war here? Is an army allowed to strike a civilian area like this

if, as they say, they're targeting military targets? Well, put it this way, you're not allowed. to use civilian infrastructure to conceal military positions. So if Hamas is hiding targets under civilians, then they're not considered civilian at all? Well, that's the argument. The Israelis have said that Hamas is concealing these positions in hospitals and Hamas denies it. Let's put it this way.

If a combatant hides military infrastructure in a civilian facility, such a facility could be considered a legitimate military target. But all that's at the level of legal argument. There's no clear-cut reality to any of this. It's all about an argument. This is a war is happening, and each side is trying to fight each other. And it's not really a very realistic proposition to sort of be able to say, this is the reality, and that is not the reality.

That's part of the war is a dispute over these things. President Joe Biden has called for a pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. His comment coming after a heckler pushing for a ceasefire, confronted him at a fundraiser in Minnesota. The White House has previously said it supports a humanitarian pause to allow aid deliveries to Gaza and the release of hostages. Biden has thrown his support behind Israel, but has shifted his response in recent weeks

as the situation worsens in Gaza and the civilian death toll rises. Given how far we have come, along with the uncertainties and risks we face, the committee is proceeding carefully. Fed Chair Jerome Powell there after the central bank decided to hold interest rates steady in its two-day policy meeting. Powell isn't the only policymaker struggling to understand what to do after this pause. On both sides of the Atlantic, central banks are grappling with the riddle of whether to end tightening or not. Dan Burns is our US economics editor. Dan, do we think we've come to the end of these rate hikes?

That's a great question. and it has the appearance of that. And certainly investors have come to that conclusion. It's probably a bit more definitive on the other side of the Atlantic and the ECB and the Bank of England, which is due to make its decision imminently and is expected to hold, are both really in much more precarious economic positions than the United States is. So market pricing suggests the Fed is done. There's a modest risk reflecting in futures pricing that they might have to raise rates again either in December or January, but all likelihood not at this point. We've been watching this concept of the inverted yield curve for months now,

and it appears it's getting close to flipping. What does that tell us? The yield curve has been inverted by the most common measure, which is the gap between the yields on two-year notes and 10-year treasury notes for the longest on record for well over a year. It's seen as a classic indicator of oncoming recession, but it's been the most predicted U.S. recession that's never occurred. The thing is that most recessions, when they do occur, tend to begin after the yield curve is right at itself. We're nearing that moment.

It's clear that the financial conditions engineered by the Fed and more recently the bond market are beginning to have a real biting effect on certain parts of the economy. whether that begins to snowball and really slow things down here, as anybody's guess, the issue is there's tremendous momentum for the economy coming into this moment. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is set to visit Israel and Jordan. He plans to meet Israeli officials to voice solidarity, but also to reassert the need to minimize Palestinian civilian casualties. He'll also try to work with Egypt and Qatar on securing the release of all of the hostages. held by Hamas.

Donald Trump Jr. testified he played a minor role in his family's company finances in the civil case accusing the Trump Organization of fraud. Junior, along with his father and siblings, stands accused of inflating the worth of Trump assets by billions of dollars. Eric and Ivanka are set to testify as well, and the former president could be sworn in on Monday. jurors in the fraud case against Sam Bankman-Fried begin deliberation today. In closing arguments, prosecutors said SBF built a, quote,

pyramid of deceit, stealing billions from customers of his cryptocurrency exchange, FTX. Bangman-Freed took the stand this week, admitting to mistakes, but saying he never intended to steal from anyone. A vote to expel Republican lawmaker George Santos from Congress failed. Republican lawmakers from New York, where Santos serves, had introduced the measure. Santos has pleaded not guilty to laundering funds to pay for his personal expenses, illegally receiving unemployment benefits and charging donors' credit cards without their consent. President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will travel on Friday to Lewiston, Maine.

That's where U.S. Army reservist Robert Card shot and killed 18 people. at a bar in bowling alley last week. Kard took his own life inside a cargo trailer, parked on the lot of a recycling plant where he once worked. Here we are for the first time, really in human history, with something that's going to be far more intelligent than us. So it's not clear to me we can actually control such a thing, but I think we can aspire to guide it in a direction that's beneficial to humanity.

Elon Musk speaking at the AI summit at Bletchley Park, ahead of his live interview with Rishi Sunak. Earlier, Britain published the so-called Bletchley Declaration, with the US, EU and 26 other countries as signatories. The Global Agreement earning praise from Musk. I think there's a lot of concern among people in the AI field that the government will sort of jump the gun on rules before knowing what to do.

And I think it's unlikely to happen. I think what we're really aiming for here is to establish a framework for insight, so that there's at least a third-party referee, an independent referee, that can observe what leading AI companies are doing and at least sound the alarm if they have concerns. US Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to be in the room for Musk's interview with Sunak.

These threats are often referred to as the existential threats of AI because, of course, they could endanger the very existence of humanity. These threats without question are profound. And they demand global action. That's it for today's episode. We'll be back tomorrow with our daily headline show. To make sure you know what's going on in the world, listen in for 10 minutes every weekday.

And don't forget to subscribe on your favorite podcast player or download the Reuters app.