Reuters World News - The stakes are high as Turkey votes

Episode Date: May 13, 2023

There’s a lot at stake in Turkey’s elections this weekend. Three months after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake, millions are still homeless or displaced. Inflation is soaring. President Tayyip Erdogan faces the closest challenge yet to his leadership in Sunday’s election. Who will lead the nation that holds NATO’s second-largest armed forces, has kept a communication channel open with Russia and decides what countries can join the alliance? Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt-out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

50,000 dead, millions homeless and entire towns raised. The price of an onion has risen tenfold in two years, and NATO's direction hangs in the balance. Turkey goes to the polls Sunday. The stakes are enormous. A strongman President Type Erdogan faces his biggest challenge yet to a 20-year hold-on power. And the voters set course after a devastating,

earthquake and runaway inflation. This is Reuters' World News, bringing you everything you need to know from the front lines in 10 minutes. I'm Kim Vinal in London. And I'm Jonathan Spicer in Istanbul. Convierte your passion in a business with Shopify and bathe records of ventas with the form of pay with a better conversion of the world. Has you heard of bien?

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Three months after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake. It's just one of the shocking facts about this election. Millions are homeless or displaced,

yet just over 130,000 of those people have registered to vote in a different place. Darren Butler visited Antakia in Huttai province. As bulldozers continue to clear rubble and daily survival as a battle, displaced voters have to get back to the city if they want to cast a ballot. Antakia is now like a ghost town. While thousands of people died here under the rubble, many thousands more,

left to live with relatives elsewhere in Turkey. Those who stayed behind are staying in prefab containers, campsites or in damaged houses. I'm going to speak to June 8 Uffkali, a district administrator in the city of Antakia. He says people here are not ready for the elections. They are still very much traumatized by the earthquakes of three months ago. I'm now in a makeshift campsites in a park in the centre of Antacia. where the local administrator is currently counting out the election papers for voters. In one of the schools where voting will be held on May 14,

container cabins have been set up in the school yard where people will vote. But in the city, there's little enthusiasm for the elections. Among those we spoke to, there is still frustration of what they see as the state's slow response to the disaster. Daily life is still a struggle in a city which is not expected to return to normal for years. and people are skeptical about government promises to rebuild housing within one year, leaving little hope that the elections will bring great change. Taiyip Erdogan, Turkey's strong man president, is in uncharted territory.

He is facing a possible defeat. Three days before polling, a survey by pollster Condor gives his main rival, Kimal-Kilich Daolulu, a five-percentage point lead. Both have held huge rallies in the final. week of campaigning. But a crippling cost of living crisis is front of mind for most voters. The humble onion has become a political flashpoint. Kilij Dahl, who filmed a video in his kitchen, holding an onion, warning that its price would soar if Erdogan stays in power. Ibrutange in Istanbul has been out talking to voters.

Everyone on the street is talking about inflation, increasing car, house, cheese, made and even bread prices. For example, to buy an average house or an average car is not affordable for ordinary Turkish people. Even renting a flat in Istanbul is a dream now because the prices has tripled and it continued to go up. In the cities like Ankara and Istanbul, campaign posters and flags are everywhere. And everyone is talking about the vote. Barba Hakim Ikinji is a lot. longtime supporter of Taya Perduan. But won't be voting

for the president, blaming his economic policies for eroding Turks purchasing power. He says they can't afford the basics and he can no longer visit his son who lives abroad. In one of Istanbul's markets, Halim Duman is doing her regular shop.

She tells us she obviously wants prices to drop, She can't afford meat and struggles to buy enough vegetables for her family. But she says the high prices are not President Erdogan's fault, saying it's the people raising prices to make bigger profits who are to blame. Erdogan is a master of political survival. Turkey bureau chief Jonathan Spicer is running Reuters' coverage of the election. Jonathan, could Erdogan's handling of the economy lose him this election?

Yes, it absolutely could. I mean, if anything is going to lose him this election after 20 years governing Turkey, it would be the economy. This is the main issue across the board for the election, and we think it will drive a lot of votes. The polls are showing that Erdogan and Kailaul are running almost neck and neck. How has Erdogan maintained that kind of support, even as the economy has run away?

Well, Erdogan has a very, very strong base of support, and he has other talents, including what we're seeing daily, here with his election campaigning. He does have a way with crowds. He's able to energize and provide that vision for his base he's credited with in his first, let's say, 10 years running Turkey, including bridges, hospitals, schools, colleges and universities across the country and places, you know, towns even that wouldn't have dreamed of having universities, you know, now have them. You can drive very easily anywhere across Anatolia. People like the fact that they can see a doctor, or that their children can see doctors quickly that day.

A lot of these changes were brought in in the first 10 years of Erdogan's reign, and they remember that. So tell us about Kiliq Daolu and why he's doing so well now. People have very mixed feelings about him and very sharp feelings. A lot of opposition voters don't really like him, and didn't really want him to be the presidential candidate. They didn't like that he couldn't energize crowds the way that Erdogan could. He's a bit of a technocrat.

He's very detailed-oriented, his former civil servant. He's a corruption fighter from way back. He's feisty. Well, he may not be able to magnetize the audience. He is quite energized about taking down Erdogan and resetting the country. If Kiliq Dahlulu wins, what would it mean for the country's direction in terms of secularism? Kliustra-Lu does come from the party with the secularist tradition, after all. I think we can see return to some of those instincts,

but I don't think it would be the mass transformation that some might want or that some might fear on the other side of the political spectrum. Is this election just about the economy, or is religion at play here too? And to the end, how important is the youth vote and the female vote? It's not just about the economy. People are looking at other issues, including, for example, the devastating earthquakes that took place in the South. Of course, cultural issues always, always play a role.

Again, conservative Turks remember some of the reforms that Erdogan brought in to really, in their eyes, you know, make the country their own where it was safer and easier to conduct a pious life. We've talked to many first-time voters. There are about six million of them, so quite a decisive bloc. And they tend to favor the opposition. They want change. They can't even remember a turkey without Erdogan at the top. And most of them are looking for change. Most of them look at their state, at their life, and they do compare themselves with youth all over the world.

They don't like the fact that their currency has been tumbling and then inflation is far and away higher than elsewhere in the world. Istanbul famously straddles two continents and underscores Turkey's international reach. It has NATO's second biggest armed force and is also a decision maker on which countries get to join. It's also played a critical role in keeping communication channels open with Russia during the Ukraine war. Andrew Gray is our senior Europe security and diplomatic correspondent and explains why D.C. and Brussels will be keeping a close eye on the election result. So, Andrew, what would an Erdogan win mean for NATO? Well, the big first question that either winner will face is whether to lift Turkey's block on Sweden. Sweden joining NATO. And so the expectation among diplomats is that if the challenger wins the election,

you would see that block being lifted. What's more uncertain is what would happen if Erdogan wins another term. Some diplomats think that, you know, secure having gained another term in power, he may then be ready to decide to change position and let Sweden join NATO. Others think he will try and extract yet more concessions. How about relations with Russia? Right, that's a big question. Obviously, Erdogan has cultivated a fairly close relationship with Vladimir Putin. So a key signal for the West will be whoever wins the election, whether it's Erdogan or whether

it's his challenger, whoever the winner is, what they do with regards to Russia if they start to distance themselves a bit more. People think that prospect is greater with Kalich de Roglu, but people, diplomat, we've been talking to, officials also recognise that Turkey is heavily dependent on Russia economically. So I think they would expect more of a gradual shift than a radical break with Moscow. That's it for this edition of Reuters World News. We'll be back on Monday with an update on the Turkey election and the early results, plus the latest headlines and major developments from around the world.

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