Reuters World News - The unity debate in Northern Ireland

Episode Date: March 16, 2024

Join Carmel Crimmins this St Patrick’s Day weekend on a melodious journey to Northern Ireland. As political changes amplify questions about the future, she hears from young musicians on what they want. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Starting route to Belfast City Hall. Head south-west on Sanford Avenue, then turn left onto Donor Avenue. For those of you who know me from our weekly headline show, I'm Carmel Crimmons, and I live in Dublin. On a sunny afternoon, just ahead of St. Patrick's Day, I'm driving up to Belfast in Northern Ireland. In the two-hour drive that separates the two cities, I see beautiful hills and the yellow flowers of the gorse shrubs that grow on the side of the road. What I don't see is a physical border. The only way you'd know you're actually in the United Kingdom are the road signs. They've switched from kilometres to miles.

It's a symbol of the huge changes that have happened on this island and the conversations that are happening now about its future. And how for a new generation, Irish unity could become a long-term reality for those under British rule, but masks the tribalism that endures. In this special episode, I go beyond politics to try and understand what a new generation of voters in mind. Northern Ireland wants. There's demographic trends, about faces on age-old sectarianism, and of course the contrasting economic fortunes in two places split for more than 100 years. And then, because this is Ireland, there's music. I'm Carmel Crimmons in Belfast.

Belfast is a UNESCO city of music, and music is so important to Northern Ireland. Flute and pipe bands are a defining part of the Protestant identity here. And the Fidl and the The Barron will feature heavily in St Patrick's Day Festival's north and south of the border. So I started off by visiting a pipe band in the small village of Doak, about 10 miles north of Belfast. I can have. Are you going to go to? This is the Major Sinclair Memorial Pipe Band. It's got over 40 pipers and drummers.

And every week, some or all of them gather in a small village hall to practice. We're talking all ages, from kids right up to grandparents. The band prides itself on being cross community and will be marching in the St Patrick's Day Parade in Belfast. Here's Glenn Baxter. He's a 24-year-old electrician and one of the band's two pipe majors. The pipes will play along with myself.

I went on a tour to Belgium with the group from north and south and we play along with the boron, playing jigs and rails. It is, it's all coming together. Music is music and I don't think the politics is coming into it. Honestly, I'd never heard anything like the sound of those pipes and drums.

It was so powerful, so unbelievably loud, so I had to relocate my interviews outdoors in the dark and the cold, which no one else seemed to mind, except me, I was freezing. First up was Johnny Cousins. Yes, that's right. C-O-U-S-I-N-S.

Yep, like the relatives. He's 24 years old and works as a cognitive behavioural therapist. And he's also an All-Ireland solo tenor drumming champion, twice over. Not bad for a guy who only took up drumming on his university gap year. And so essentially I find myself on like a Monday Tuesday, Wednesday night, having not very much to do. Johnny twirled his drumsticks throughout our discussion,

which reigned from music and religion to politics. And in particular, the ambition of Sinn Féin, the former political wing of guerrilla group, the Irish Republican Army, to unite Northern Ireland with the South. So it's very difficult for a lot of unionists to kind of get on board with the principle of United Ireland, which is being proposed by a party that for a lot of unionists is associated with a terrorist group.

And so a lot of unionists will, of older unionists especially will immediately be like we're never going to vote for that. A lot of my generation of unionists from Protestant or else of Scots will say no because there's no plan, there's no sort of idea of how we would integrate in terms of finances, in terms of NHS or anything like that. And so without that plan in place, you would essentially be voting for an idea rather than an actual concrete plan. Johnny spoke about the need to protect the Ulster Scots identity of a lot of pro-union voters. His bandmate Hannah Thompson agreed.

She's a PhD student in environmental science and a veteran pipe already at the age of 23. She described herself as coming from a unionist Protestant background. But identity can be complicated, like the time she travelled to Romania with a pipe band from County Duny Gull. Whenever you're in

Bucharest and somewhere, you know, that's not home. I don't really have, I didn't really have an issue being called Irish. You know, it was all the time. You know, you're the Irish Pipers, and you just go, yeah. Yeah. And how would you describe yourself here when you're home?

Oh, Northern Irish. Right. If I don't ask for my identity, I'd always go Northern Irish. And then British is a second. Like Johnny, she could foresee a border poll being held in the future. And economics and identity would play a big role in deciding how to vote. I think it's difficult to not vote for, you know, what you identify as. I would also, I would look at the posing cons of our situation at the time.

I would look at it with a sensible head. If it would be smarter to stay, to leave, I would consider posing cons. But again, you'd have to kind of separate yourself in a way of your identity. But again, it would be difficult to kind of remove yourself and think, you know, open. This is how I identify. How can I see myself, you know, in a future, in a place where I don't really identify being from. Yeah. I don't know. It would be difficult. Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou MacDonald says the United Ireland is within touching distance. There's a conversation underway about what happens next 25 years, 26 years, almost on,

from the Good Friday Agreement. What does Ireland look like in five years' time, in 10 years' time, In a generation's time, the days of partition are numbered. It doesn't work. But is that really the case? To find out, I spoke to our Belfast correspondent, Amanda Ferguson. She's been covering the twists and turns of what goes on in Northern Ireland for 15 years. We met in the grand setting of Belfast City Hall, where they were setting up for an event to mark International Women's Day.

The Good Friday Agreement is clear that for now, Northern Ireland, is a part of the United Kingdom, but it is a conditional part of the United Kingdom. So the only way that that would change would be if people vote for it in a border poll. Now, it would be up to the UK Government Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to call a border poll. He could do that in any circumstances, but the most likely one is if he is of the view that the majority of people would want to vote for United Ireland, and then the poll would be called. Up to this point, the UK government has resisted outlining the conditions that would need to be met for a border pole to be called.

So politicians everywhere feast on surveys and polls, but here it must be, you know, it's existential. What we have seen is to be very sort of blunt about it and it's not precise. We're kind of dividing along 40, 40, 20 lines. So 40% of the population roughly is from a British Unionist tradition. 40% is roughly what will be described as an Irish Republican or nationalist background. And then the other 20 is made up of what are known as the others. Now the others is there described. would vote for parties like the Alliance Party and the Green Party who don't take a fixed constitutional position. But within the support base for both of those parties, you will have people who are British Unionists and Irish Republicans,

people who could be persuaded either way whenever it comes to a referendum, whenever it comes to border poll day. And some people who don't really care about it at all, that it doesn't exercise them. It's not something that motivates them. And that is the cohort that everybody will be trying to court whenever it comes to a border poll because everybody else kind of knows

what they want, whereas that group is a little bit ambiguous, so they'll be extremely important on decision day, I guess. Is it a basic question of demographics, or is it not as simple as that? I think when you look again at a different chart that showed you who is most in favour of Irish unity, the over 65s

are least in favour of it, and the young voters who are 18 are very keen on that idea, so we know what happens to people as they age, they vanish from statistics, and those young cohorts become voters. So it depends, I guess. You can't just assume because someone's from a particular background

that they're going to vote a certain way because they'll want to know what's happening with the health service and with education and infrastructure and how it would make a difference to pensions and a whole range of different issues. Amanda's right. You can't assume from someone's background the way they're going to vote. On a Wednesday evening in the Crown and Shamrock pub north of Belfast,

you'll often find traditional Irish musicians having a session. Pints of Guinness on the table. eyes closed as they concentrate on the tunes. There's a nice, cozy vibe, and a sign which I'm taking to be tongue-in-cheek, warning against discussions of politics and religion. I take the plunge anyway. Owen Nugent is an 18-year-old student at Queen's University,

studying philosophy, politics, and economics. He plays the fiddle, considers himself Irish, and would like a united Ireland in what he describes as the not-too-distant future. I'd certainly go, yeah. That's just the way I'm inclined to understand that a lot of people would be on the fence and that sort of thing and maybe just They're not too sure as to what they'd see as to what to expect So in that sense it's just more comfortable for some people to vote for the status quo I suppose broader nationalism has to ask itself is

What do you do to then make the South more appealing then in those sorts of like social services and institutions. They'd have to be more appealing to persuade Michael Lawrenson. He's a 32-year-old geography teacher and not interested in identity politics. If someone has to say to you, well, what's your nationality? I just kind of go, whatever, like, you know, I'm not really. I'm one of those people. Nationality is not acquired. Socialist, yes.

He's more interested in the quality of life, and it's that, rather than the flag or the national anthem, that will be a deciding factor in any future referendum. I think it's an interesting because I couldn't say yes for no right. because it's ridiculous question. What does the United Ladder look like? Is it national health service? Is it national health service?

I can't speak. Health service. Is it public sector, massive investment in the public sector? Is Intel going to pay more tax in? So is Google going to pay tax? If they're not, why would I be interested in my livelihood? My quality of life isn't going to improve. But I would like social change.

Okay. Both in the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, the UK. There needs to be massive investment in public sector in renewables, nationalised and energy. All this health service, public, you know, all that stuff, is way more important than what country you come from with. Michael Lawrenson is the type of voter that Amanda describes as the 20%. So how are local politicians thinking about a referendum?

I'm in the town of Balamina, famous for being the birthplace of Hollywood actor Liam Neeson. Ian Paisley Jr. is the Democratic Unionist Party MP there. His late father, Ian Paisley, Sr., was a firebrand Protestant preacher and hardline Ulster unionist. Paisley Sr. was so opposed to closer ties to the Irish Republic that he was known as Dr. Noe. But he later said yes to sharing power with his once mortal enemies. Large pictures of Paisley Senior lined the walls in his son's constituency office. I started off by asking him if he thought there'd be a referendum on Irish unity. I think the border, the issue of the border has always been on the horizon since Northern Ireland

was created as a state. The issue is will it actually ever take place? I'm in the view that the fact that nationalism and republicanism, which is supposed to be deriving the issue of the border, keep kicking it off for 10 years every time, suggests to me that they know it's never actually going to change. So you don't think there will be a border, Paul? No, do not. And even if there is, I still think that all of the stats show

that ultimately Northern Ireland is better place to remain within the United Kingdom and it's much more stable within the United Kingdom. I also think there's a huge psychological problem, a huge, huge issue here. The problem of Northern Ireland is that you've got a people who are divided. People of Northern are one unit. Yes, they're Catholic and Protestant identity, or non-religious identity, they're unionists and nationals or unions and republican in their outlook, but they are a people and they are divided. The idea that you have a border pole and move those people from one

jurisdiction into a jurisdiction called All-Ireland doesn't solve the fact that the people are still divided. It's healing the divisions within the people of Northern Ireland that I'm more interested in, than actually focusing on oh they should be part of the United Kingdom and should be part of the Irish Republic that actually doesn't fix the problem and the problem is that people need to heal that division I've been hearing a lot about the other

the grouping of people in the voters who aren't identifying one way or the other are you actively reaching out to the other I hope that the status quo appeals as much to them as it does to unions who are big you unionists and it probably does to a large degree. I also, I'm not saying I'm skeptical about this other community called the other

because you scratch the surface in Northern Ireland of everyone on their tribal. Right. And anyone who says, oh no, I'm above that. Really, I'm really above that. You know, come on. You scratch the surface. Everyone is in some way tribal. And I'm not saying that they're sectarian in that.

I'm just saying that's just the nature of the, nation, the country that we've grown up in, and even families that are mixed and integrated and all the rest of there still is a tribal view within them. John Funukin, a member of Parliament for Belfast North, disagrees. Like all Sinn Féin politicians, he refuses to sit or vote in the Westminster Parliament. His father, Pat Fenuchin, was a human rights lawyer who was shot dead in front of his family in 1989 by pro-British militants. A picture of Pat Fanucan hangs in the corner of his son's law firm in Belfast City Centre.

I start off with the most obvious question. So for Sinn Féin for yourselves, when would you like to hold a border pole? Well, I think that we are in what we have described as a decade of opportunity. I think it's inevitable that a border pole will be put before the people of Ireland, north and south. This is not about me saying that I want a border poll tomorrow morning. I want a border poll exactly this time next year. That would be reckless. Brexit is the blueprint as to how not to do these things.

So for somebody who advocates for constitutional change, I will extend that by saying I advocate for constitutional change in an orderly, in a mature and an informed fashion. And that's why there needs to be a recognition, particularly from an Irish government, that they need to join this debate in a way that only a sovereign government can. The opinion polling without any real interaction and engagement from an Irish government, I think is very healthy. I think once this debate is resourced even more, then we will see that momentum continued. There is that other, the group, the other that I've been hearing a lot about. I find that for people who, at the very least, want to be part of the conversation and haven't made their mind up yet, the conversations I find tend to drift more towards health. It drifts towards the economy. It drift towards, is my pension safe?

What is this New Ireland look like for my children and my grandchildren? So I think there is a role, there is a role for everybody in this conversation on this. So political parties, civic society, academia, different sectors within society. And by and large, all of those different people in areas are stepping up and playing their role. No one person or party, particularly Sinn Féin, owns this conversation. This is a conversation that belongs to everybody. And that's important to say.

But there comes a point where only a government has the ability to bring it to the next stage and we are at that point now where it needs brought to the next stage. So the Irish government have a huge obligation and responsibility in that regard, but also so do the British government. So what is Dublin doing? Do the people and the politicians want to unite with the North? Poric Halpin has been running Reuters' coverage of Ireland for the last 10 years and knows his way well around the political corridors of power. The main government parties here both aspire to United Ireland. Ireland's Prime Minister, who's 45,

says he thinks that'll happen in his lifetime, but equally they've been pretty consistent that they don't see it in the near term. And that's cited, I think, as the main reason why they are looking to do any sort of planning. I think they also see it as divisive politically

at the moment when things are just getting back on their feet in Northern Ireland regarding politics there. So we're expecting a general election in Ireland sometime in the next 12 months. if Sinn Féin gets into government, how might that change an Irish government's approach

to possible unification? Yes, it could change quite a lot. Sinn Féin's reason for being is a United Ireland. They're the clear favourites to lead the next government when election happens in the next 12 months.

They want planning to begin in earnest. They want it via parliamentary committees. They want a citizen's assembly to discuss those kind of more difficult issues like a flag and a national anthem issues that Sinn Féin themselves haven't really,

haven't really just discussed in any great way. Now, if they're leading the next government, it will be part of a coalition. But the dynamic would certainly change. I think that kind of planning would be the price of Sinn Féin leading that government. So if the polls are correct and Sinn Féin come out on top of the next election, kind of form of government, that dynamic is going to change. How do people in the Republic feel about a potential border poll? So the surveys say they're in favour of it and in favour in pretty big numbers. It was a comprehensive a poll before Christmas that shows 64% in favour, just 16% against the United Ireland. The rest are in the unknown camp.

Interestingly, that survey looked and asked questions around flagged, around a new anthem, around possible changes to the Irish Constitution. And voters were split much more evenly on those issues. I think that goes to show that those kind of issues aren't really being discussed. They're not on people's radar. So I think while there's a big majority in favour, I think people haven't really thought about it beyond that surface idea. Speaking to people in Northern Ireland, they are worried about the financial ramifications if there was to be unification. Can the Republic afford it?

So on a headline level, Britain subsidises Northern Ireland to the tune of £14 billion each year for that very public serviced, focused economy. While Ireland is one of the few European countries running a budget surplus at the moment and quite a significant one at that, It was about half the level last year that the UK subsidises Northern Ireland. Like, Ireland is in a much, much better position to consider this question. Those healthy public finances, Dublin is hoping to turn into a sovereign wealth fund that could reach 100 billion euros within a decade that's driven by these huge amounts of corporate tax from the kind of multinational focus economy down in Dublin. So, like, on that headline level, Ireland potentially could be in a position to kind of consider it,

back to the point of no planning happening, those discussions on what would happen or how what the health service would look like, how it would be funded, those questions around pensions, those kind of things, just like haven't been discussed at all. So, you know, you can only really look at things on a kind of headline level, I guess. What's the British government's position on all of this? So the UK's Northern Ireland minister said recently that he doesn't see a referendum happening in his lifetime. And, you know, with polls consistently showing that a fairly clear majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote for the state of boat if a poll was held tomorrow. London can simply say, and they do, that the conditions for

holding a referendum are nowhere near being met. Interestingly, the Labour leader, Kirst Armer, said something very similar before the Labour Party conference last year. I think he described it as a hypothetical situation and again that the conditions aren't near being met. So I think until you see opinion polls that are much closer or certainly some going the other way, that will continue to be London's position, I think. A big thank you to all the musicians from the Major Sinclair Memorial Pipe Band and the Glen Gormley School. Play it loud on Sunday. Thanks also to John Funukin, Ian Paisley Jr., Brendan O'Leary, Brian Walker, Amanda Ferguson and Porig Halpin. And whatever you're doing this weekend, St Patrick's Day or Not, I hope you have a good one.

Reuters World News is produced by Jonah Green, Gail Issa, David Spencer, Chris Wall Jasper, and myself, Carmel Crimmons. Our regular host is Kim Vinell. producer, Lila Decretza. Sound design, engineering and music composition by Josh Summer. We'll be back on Monday with our daily headline show. Listen in every weekday for everything you need to know about your world in 10 minutes. If you haven't already, subscribe, rate and review on your favorite podcast player. If you like what you hear, we'd love it if you share this episode with a friend.

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