RHAP: We Know Survivor - How Season 50 Was Won (And Lost)

Episode Date: June 6, 2026

How Season 50 Was Won (And Lost) Today, Rob Cesternino dives deep into what really determined Survivor 50. This special episode, featuring Rob solo, offers an exceptional breakdown of the most pivotal moments, surprising shifts, and hidden factors that led to Aubry’s unpredictable win. Rob painstakingly retraces every tribal, alliance shakeup, and win probability swing, asking: Was Survivor 50 about big moves — or simply outlasting the chaos? This episode unpacks the most consequential events from the current Survivor season. Rob explains his unique “win share” calculations, tracking each player’s changing odds to win after every elimination. He takes listeners through early exits (like Jenna Lewis and Kyle), the devastating impact of the Blood Moon triple elimination, and the strategic ripples after power players like Mike White, Charlie, and Ozzy are sent packing. As alliances shatter and new threats emerge, the episode sheds light on how key gameplay decisions — from hidden immunity idols to the art of flying under the radar — carve new paths to the end. Rob highlights Aubry’s journey, watching her odds climb from the bottom, as well as how players like Cirie, Rizo, and Tiffany rise and fall with each vote. Key moments in the episode include: – The dramatic Blood Moon night and its impact on Genevieve, Colby, and Kamilla – Cirie’s near-miss as a front-runner and the social dynamics that lead to her blindside – Rob’s breakdown of “win share”—how rapidly odds shift for favorites like Ozzy, Jonathan, and Aubry – The value of laying low versus making flashy moves, seen through Aubry’s late-game push and hidden threat management – Critical alliance upheavals after big moves, including the ousters of Mike White, Charlie, and Rick Devens Does playing a quiet, adaptive game now trump bold moves and big threats as the surest path to $2 million in Survivor 50? Can calculating the win equity at each vote help us truly understand how Aubry survived the bloodbath? Tune in as Rob untangles the chaos and reveals the unexpected truths behind Survivor’s landmark fiftieth season. Chapters: 00:00 Oops All Aubry Concept Explained 02:35 Assigning Initial Win Percentages 05:55 Jenna and Kyle Eliminations Impact 10:44 Early Positioning of Aubry and Angelina 13:52 Tribe Swap Dramatically Shifts Odds 17:11 Mike White and Charlie Votes Change Game 23:12 Blood Moon: Three Major Eliminations 27:07 Genevieve Boot Transforms Aubry’s Chances 31:12 Colby and Blood Moon Fallout 34:53 Merge Vote: D Goes Home 36:15 Coach and Chrissy Double Elimination 40:26 Christian’s Blindside and Sizable Impact 44:06 Stephanie Out, Aubry Rises to Middle 46:55 Aubry Flips on Ozzy at Power Broker 52:18 Rick Devens Voted Out at Final Six 53:52 Cirie Blindsided, Jonathan Becomes Favorite 56:01 Finale—Aubry Wins Crucial Immunity 59:15 Aubry Seals the Win at Final Tribal 01:03:02 Lessons From Survivor 50’s Outcome To order Rob’s book, The Tribe and I Have Spoken, visit www.robhasabook.com Never miss a minute of RHAP’s extensive Survivor coverage! LISTEN: Subscribe to the Survivor podcast feed WATCH:  Watch and subscribe to the podcast on YouTube SUPPORT:  Become a RHAP Patron for bonus content, access to Facebook and Discord groups plus more great perks!

Hey everybody, what's going on? Rob Sestrinino, and I'm here, and I've got, I really cooked one up for you here today because this is my attempt to go back to Survivor 50. I thought about after the season was over. I wanted to do a video that I was calling Oops All Aubrey. I did this after Survivor 43 about Gabler. I did a video called Oops All Gabler, and I went back through every scene with Gableer. all of his confessionals.

And the idea was sort of like, how did Gabor win? What was going on? How did this happen? But that I think was a little bit more something that I think was special for Gabor. I think that people after Gabor won, they were like, wait, what the hell just happened? How did Gabor win the season? Was he hiding in plain sight? And it was part strategy, but I think also part edit reading of how did the editors hide in

plain sight to us, what Gabler was doing. I don't think that that was really the case for Aubrey. I don't think we're really at a lack of understanding about how Aubrey won Survivor 50. So it got me thinking about, is there a way to sort of tell the story of Survivor 50 and take a look at what were the moves that mattered over the course of the season? What were the things that really changed the outcome of this season? like what were the butterfly effect moments that really made it so that maybe was it not so much that Aubrey won the season, but did other people blow it?

That's what I was thinking about. And I wanted to go back and take a look at how this all unfolded. And I wanted to do it in a way that I'm a sports fan. And I certainly have seen these types of graphics quite a bit. but one that really stuck in my mind, listen, we have Knicks fever here right now. And going back to a couple of weeks ago, the Knicks were facing the calves in game one of the playoff series. And there was this point in the game where the calves were winning 93 to 71.

and the Cavs had a 99.9% chance to win the game. The Knicks had a 0.1% chance to win the game with 749 in the fourth quarter and the Knicks came back and won. And you see these types of graphics all the time in football games and baseball games of the win probability and it shifts totally. And I am not Dr. Christian Hubicki. I'm not a mathematician, but I wondered if I had. could go back and try to take a look at going through the entire game of Survivor 50,

would it be possible to take a look at everybody's win percentages? Some people would call it the win equity of all of the players over the course of the game. How did it shift? And how did we end up in this situation where Aubrey ultimately wins Survivor 50? I have so many caveats for you. not a mathematician. I am not a professional. I've never done anything like this before. This is actually pretty nerdy. Don't tell my wife that I did this either. I would appreciate that. Thank you so much. So what I attempted to do is go back and assign a win share percentage to every

single player over the course of the season. And then I've gone through and I updated the win share percentage of every single player after every single elimination. And what I had to do then was after a player gets eliminated, I had to then reassign their percentage of the pie to the other players. I am doing this as a video here. If you're watching, I'm also recording this as a podcast. If you're listening to the podcast, you feel free to come watch the video. But I also want to make sure that everybody can follow along. So I have put my PDF that I'm working from up. It's at Robisofa website.com slash season 50 odds. That's a season 50 odds. And you can go ahead. It's not like Kalshi. Okay. I have this ready for you to take a look at. And I'm so hoping that you'll be

able to see some of this small print that's going to be here on the screen. So I had a hard challenge to start off of how did I assign the odds for all of the players? And this was a difficult task to go back. I, again, I have my own biases. I know how the season is going to end. I also thought that maybe that you would have maybe more variance in terms of where people were going to start. But in a 24 player season, and maybe people are going to say, I've never done this before.

Full disclosure, but come along with me for the ride. I think it's worth it. I don't know how to do this. So I sort of just guessed what were the best, what were the odds of players? And what I ultimately came down to was the idea that players didn't really have that drastically different odds to win the season in this 24 player season. I ultimately ended up with, I went back to Dalton Ross. and Mike Bloom did a draft before the season really got going.

And they did this draft that was, they recorded it for RHAP. And in their recording that you could go back and listen to, they drafted all of the players. And in their draft, they had coach number one. Coach was an early preseason favorite, and a lot of people felt like that coach had really great, a good chance to win, went first in a lot of drafts.

I have coach here at the start of the season. I have him at the top at 5.5% chance to win the game. And the person that I had the lowest percentage odds on was Rizzo at 3%. But there's not that much variance between. I really tried to say, look, it's going to be a crazy game. Anything could happen. People could get hot. But that was the biggest thing where I don't think that there was.

was one person that came in. And maybe you could argue, actually, Rob, no, Ozzie had this great chance, Surrey had this great chance. They should have had at least 9%. And I say, fine, you know, let's just go with me because I think that the math, while it's not going to be precise, there's no possible way that I think you could have done it precisely unless you were in the field calculating these things in the real time. But I think that the ballpark math is there. So let's just come along with me on the ride. So I've got coach coming into this game. People were eating up what he was saying.

He goes first for Dalton Ross and Mike Bloom. I went back to the podcaster draft also. And I just tried to factor things in. So there was a couple people that Q went very low in the draft for Mike and Dalton. But I'm still a Q believer. I had them at 4%. Aubrey I have here at 4% to win the game. as the person who's coming in, nobody really knows him, I thought he had a, didn't have a great

shot to start off. So he's going to start off at 3%. So just come with me on this ride. And so what you'll see here, here's what I'm going to do. Here's Jenna Lewis. Jenna Lewis gets eliminated first. We all know. And so what I'm giving you here is a before and after, after each vote. So Jenna Lewis, I had coming into the game. and she is going to be, I believe I have her at something like four and a half percent chance to win the game to start off. And so Jenna Lewis is going to be out of the game. And now I have to reassign Jenna Lewis's percentage to somebody else. And so after this, what do you do with Jenna Lewis had four and a half percent chance to win the game?

She's out. So some other people are up. Maybe people who are her allies are going to be down. But I had to give away her four and a half percent. I'm going to do Kyle separately. I tried to do each elimination by its own person. And so you sort of just spread it around for Jenna Lewis. I think that Christian is going to jump up to five and a half percent.

And I spread some to people on the other tribes because now they have a better chance to win. because somebody from this tribe is out. And that's, you know, I'm reassigned, just so you're following along with what I'm doing. I'm going to reassign their percentage points. Kyle, I think, is maybe the more interesting one. Because Kyle is in a good position. I think that I had Kyle maybe a little bit higher

than where he started. And then now I have to reassign Kyle's percentage to win the game. And so Kyle is out. he was at a three and a half percent chance to win the game for me. And so now we're going to start to move stuff around. I think it hurts some of the people that were on Kyle's tribe. I think if Kyle stayed in the game, I think it's helping Colby and Q and Genevieve and Stephanie and ultimately Rizzo.

But we see by the time that Kyle is out of the game, Aubrey and Angelina are not in good positions. and Kyle, I think, was maybe the bridge to Angelina and Aubrey on that original starting tribe. So I've dropped Aubrey now to a 3% chance to win the game at this point in time that we're going to start seeing that people are going to go into her bag. It's not a great spot for Aubrey to start from. I did bump up Camilla after this a little bit. I felt like that that was good for Camilla, but we have to give away Kyle's percentage chance. to win the game. Okay. Then we're going to go to, we know that next is going to be another

winner, Savannah gets voted out. I had Savannah down at only a two and a half percent chance to win the game at the time that she gets eliminated. So there's not that much to do with her getting eliminated from the game. I think I bump up Rizzo a little bit because that now there's only one person from season 50. I am also starting to bump up the win percentage for the people from the Kalo tribe. That's the coach tribe, the blue tribe where they haven't lost anybody. It seems more likely that the people over there, I have Charlie at the top of the leaderboard now at 6%. So far, and Charlie to me was the person who is in that tribe is the person that he's connected, he has the most connections to everybody.

and so I have Charlie at a season high, 6% chance to win the game at the time that Savannah is going out. You had where Dee and Tiffany and Camilla, they are together, but there's also some talk that Christy's trying to get them. It seems like that Charlie's in a pretty safe spot. He's got Mike White. He's got coach. He's got Jonathan. He's working with D. So to me, Charlie looks like the favorite at this point that Savannah ends up getting voted out.

Savannah was kind of dead in the water at this point. I think that she was also the lowest person on the percentages at this point. And Aubrey is still only at 3%. There's a gap between Aubrey and Charlie, but it's interesting. Where if you look at like in the numbers, yeah, Aubrey's down pretty low. But that Charlie, who's in the best position in this, by my name, has a 6% chance to win the game. And he's in the best position in the game.

And here's Aubrey, who's in the worst position to win the game. And she has a 3% chance. Now, maybe you would do this totally different if you were going to go through it and say, who is the most likely person to win, I'm sorry, who is the most likely person to be eliminated next? And if you were going to draw the odds for that, maybe Aubrey could have and this is, I think at this point

she does get the hidden immunity idol at this point. So she does have the Billy Ilish Boomerang Idol, so maybe that would drop down. But let's just take the idols out of the equation. If you were going to say, who's the most likely person to get voted out next? I think you would say, well, it could be Aubrey, could be Angelina.

It certainly could be, I'm not sure if they went to another truck. It could be Joe after Savannah gets voted out. It could be Chrissy. It could be D. there's four or five different people that it could be. But Charlie, I think you would say at this point in time, is probably one of the least likely players to get voted out.

But it doesn't necessarily mean that he's that much more likely to win the game than Aubrey. Even though there's a higher chance she could go home, I don't, like, I've never done this before. Should Aubrey's percentage chance to win the game at this point be even lower? should Charlie's chance to win the game be significantly higher? He's much less likely to go home at this point, but it still doesn't seem likely that he would have this gigantic lion's share to win the game.

So I just think that this is interesting, and I'm sure the comments will be electric on this one of Rob. You don't know what you're doing. This is maybe just a mental exercise for me of trying to talk this through, but I think that this is, you know, so interesting. I don't know necessarily how you would do it differently. So let's talk about now, okay, the tribe swap is going to change everything. We had Q who comes in, and I had Q at a really good spot. I had Q at 5.5% to win the game at the time that Q ultimately goes home as I switch to the Q slide.

And so Q goes from having a 5.5% chance to win the game. at the point that he gets swapped to ultimately out of the game. So what do I do with Q's 5.5% of the game? And I think that also I have to take some winshare percentage away from the people who were Q's allies like Stephanie, who is going to drop a little bit after this. And so I spread it around. and I think that it's going more to people from. I've got Coach at 5.5%.

It's a little hard for me to read my own tiny font here. But I'm going to bump up Charlie a little bit and coach. And Jonathan, I have as the top three people. Because Q was a big part of the original VATU. And they lost a key cog. Kalo is fully constituted. Genevieve is still right there as the person who is doing the best from the original Kalo, or sorry, original Vatu, even though she was a Q ally.

So that's what we're doing with that. I've got still Christian and Emily and Mike White all doing good after Q gets voted out. They work together on that one. And Q has, it's a big, shift in terms of that OG Vatsu, they've lost Kyle, they've lost Q, and now we'll see how it all plays out. Now, okay, this is another big shift that's coming up in the game where Mike White gets voted out.

And my thesis coming into this was that the voteouts of Mike White and Charlie drastically change the game for Kalo. If it wasn't for Christian taking out Mike White and then Kalo between D and Jonathan not getting along anymore after the Charlie vote, I think that maybe the winner of the season could have come from Kalo. That was my thesis coming in. I'm not so sure about that now after I've done this exercise. So, all right. Now, now that Mike White is out of the game, coming into this, I had Charlie at a six and a half percent chance to win the game prior to Mike White getting voted out. But it takes a little bit of a dip after Mike.

Because I think that Charlie has this great connection with Mike White, as we will see on the White Lotus season four. and Mike White going out of the game is going to change things a bit. Charlie is not going to get back to the high watermark. I saw this ultimately Mike White getting voted out as a boost to Colby and Genevieve. I actually have Emily at the third best percentage chance to win the game after Mike White gets voted out. and Jonathan is going to hold steady at fourth, and Angelina, I think, drops even a little bit more. I had Angelina at a 3% chance to win,

and then she drops down to 2.5% after Mike White goes out. Aubrey's still right there at 3% after the Mike White vote. So now Angelina and Charlie are going to get voted out next. And for Angelina and Charlie, I'm going to do these separately rather than one bulk night. And you'll see how I do this for some of these double eliminations. Let me start with Angelina. I think Angelina is the easier one to talk through

because reassigning Angelina's 2.5% is the easier task. So Angelina first is going to go out. And for Angelina, we're going to, just divvy up her two and a half percent, ultimately, not that important. Very Angelina, that she was kind of dead in the water at the point where Mike White gets voted out. But I want to talk more about Charlie because that was kind of the reason why I wanted to do this video in the first place. I really felt like that we're going to look back at this and see this is a huge swing for the people ultimately on Calo after Charlie gets voted out. So Charlie is the only person in my data who was at the top of the leaderboard who gets picked off before the merge.

So it wasn't necessarily that people were going super big game hunting, maybe in the case of Mike White that Christian, but in Christian's mind, Mike White was the biggest threat. but that's not necessarily how anybody else is looking at the game in the pre-merge in this season, that the players are not necessarily targeting the big threats. In fact, when we look at Jenna Lewis, she was the one person who was like, hey, let's get out the biggest threat here. Let's go after three. And people were like, no, we're not doing that. And so it was not really a season where early on people were like, we're going after the biggest threats. it was a little bit more of we're going after a little bit more of the easy targets.

And that's what we saw with a lot of the votes, maybe Mike White and Charlie being the exception so far. So after Charlie ends up getting voted out, what do we do with Charlie's percentage chance to win the game, which I had probably around 6% coming into this vote. And so I ended up giving a lot of it to Colby and to Genevieve. I gave some to Surrey. I have Surrey jumping up a little bit after Charlie gets voted out. Now, remember, the Charlie vote happens where it's Rizzo and D come together. They bring in Surrey, Surrey, and,

Rizzo form this bond. So I saw this as a big boost to Surrey, much more so than D, who is the person who is somewhat responsible for this move and shares it with Rizzo and Camilla and Surrey. But I saw this as a big boost for Surrey who is able to get out Charlie, who's a big threat, but doesn't get any blood on her hands from the people from Kalo. Nobody's going to be mad at Surrey for Charlie getting voted out, whereas D is going to, after she's just, she's taken out Charlie, who was an ally, and also made an enemy out of Jonathan. And again, I have the benefit of seeing the future, but I think if I was there, I would say, you know, D is going to, like, what's coach going to say about this?

What's, you know, what's Chrissy going to say about this? And some of these people maybe were not necessarily D's close allies, but now, Now, she's made enemies in a way that Surrey hasn't by this move. So I have Surrey up. Colby and Genevieve is sort of the people who are at the center of Vatu up. Ozzie and Emily, I still have in a pretty good position. And Aubrey doesn't really affect her at all. I still have Aubrey at 3% to ultimately win the game.

Let's talk about the blood moon. because the blood moon is going to be a major event that happens. Three people are going to go out in the blood moon. And so let's talk about how that changes things. First is Camilla who ends up going out in the blood moon. And Camilla is, I thought was in a really good position coming out of every. I didn't think that she was going to be seen as one of the people that got blamed for the Charlie vote. and after Camilla gets voted out,

we're going to have to reassign the, and Camilla is going to be a major part of the D. Tiffany group. So that's really a shift. Camilla going out, I think, has starting to signal, even though D is at the tribal council where Colby is going to get voted out, that it's going to be a bad night for D ultimately by the end of this, the blood moon. So I have Camilla coming into the blood moon with a five and a half percent chance to win.

I thought she was in a pretty good spot. After that's over, I think it's going to see, it's going to be a little bit of, I did this one at a time. So Colby and Genevieve, even though they are going to get voted out in this same night, coming into it, I did this separate, and then I'll go back and I'll show you pre-blood Moon and post-blood Moon of how things went. Jonathan gets a big boost out of taking out Camilla here, because it's going to solidify Jonathan.

While he does make an enemy out of D and Tiffany, I think that he still improves his position. He goes from 5% chance to win to 7.5% chance to win. I think this is a boost also for Stephanie and for Chrissy who sort of lock in the Honor and Integrity Alliance. And so that's how I think that the Camilla boot changes things. I think that Tiffany, I also drop her down a little bit after the Camilla boot, where she drops from, I think just from five and a half percent to five percent. and I think I also, I think I leave D alone for now. But let's talk about then a huge shift in the game,

which is going to be Genevieve. And the Genevieve boot, ultimately, they now were talking because Genevieve is somebody who has a pretty decent chance to win. She's all the way up at the top, and she has a 8% chance to win at the point that she's eliminated. from the game. And it's going to be a seismic shift, the Blood Moon. And this is where we're going to bring

Aubrey into this. So prior to the Genevieve vote and the Blood Moon, I have Aubrey at 3% chance to win. I bump Aubrey up to a 6% chance to win after Genevieve has been taken out of the game. And I think that's something that is going to be interesting to track is that what we're we talk about Aubrey and to bring it back to an Aubrey-centered video that originally got me thinking in this area is Aubrey does talk a lot about who is who are the biggest threats right now. And now Aubrey and Genevieve, they have their own thing, but it was a little bit where I think that Aubrey could see Genevieve was like that Genevieve came into this season. I was worried for her.

She comes in great. She wins over Colby and Stephanie and Kyle and Rizzo and Q. And she's really set up. And I think that that Aubrey is the one person who in her starting tribe looked at Genevieve, the way that the people on Survivor 47 looked at Genevieve of like, boy, she's really good. She voted out Saul. Do you remember that? She took out Saul, everybody.

And I think that Aubrey was kind of coming into that. And everybody else was like, no, we love Genevieve. She's the best. And Aubrey, I went back and I have some of Aubrey's quotes about players. And I want to include them in Aubrey's. I don't trust Genevieve whatsoever. I think Genevieve is calculating and an exceptional liar. I feel like Genevieve is someone who,

Genevieve is someone where I'm going to have to cut your throat before you cut mine. We know that Genevieve, obviously, is targeting Aubrey the whole way through. This is a big swing for Aubrey. So Aubrey inherits not only Genevieve's jacket, but some of her win share. I also am giving some more to Ozzie and Jonathan and Stephanie. I'm not sure if I gave any more to Stephanie. But anyway, you get the idea. It's a big night for Aubrey. And then let's, also include Colby also because Colby is a close ally of Genevieve. Colby and Genevieve, I had them at really some of the top people to beat early on in the whole first half of the season. And I don't know if Colby was going to win the game. I know that Surrey called him the head of the

snake when it came down to, should we vote off coach or should we vote off Colby? And Sarie said, it's Colby that we need to vote off. We know that. Colby talked about that he was doing pregame alliances. And so he had really tight bonds with people that were going to be tough to break, like Coach and Stephanie. And also he had new bonds in people like Genevieve. So Colby, I think, really was set up pretty well. If this was maybe Survivor, I was going to say 20, because Colby was on Survivor 20,

if this Colby was around and around Survivor 20, I think that this would be the type of player you easily could see winning the season. And who knows ultimately how it would have gone if Colby survived the bloodline. He's also, I didn't factor in that he's injured and walking wounded, but let's just go with this. Okay, so now Colby, I have to give away his 8%. And I think the biggest beneficiary here

ends up being Surrey. And Ozzy also comes out really good. And for Ozzie, really the best thing that he did was just sort of. survive the blood moon. I mean, this was a huge thing to just be able to get a, if this is a board game, you got to basically move ahead three spaces on the board game. And in doing this, it a little bit does feel like that Survivor kind of is a board game where really, we're just trying to get to the finish line. And for Ozzie and Rizzo, move ahead three spaces. You skip the blood moon.

And so, and really everybody that gets through the Blood Moon moves ahead three spaces in the game. And there's a lot of winshare that has to be passed around. So I have a slide for you that is going to be pre-blood Moon and post-blood Moon. And we can kind of take a look at the biggest risers and fallers. I think that's a word, Rob, after the blood moon. And so it's a huge redistribution of the win share of we have, Surrey is the first person to get to a 10% win share after the blood moon.

She comes into the blood moon at about 6%. So it's a huge night for Surrey where that Camilla was an ally, sure. but maybe like maybe Ceres 12th best ally at this point in the game. And people who were not working with Ceri and Colby and Genevieve are gone. Her allies, Ozzie and Rizzo are off on Exile Island. So a big boost to Ceri at this point in the post-merge. Ozzie also is going to jump up. I have him at 6.5% prior to the Blood Moon.

He's up to 9%. Christian comes out of the Blood Moon ahead. He goes from 6% to 8%. In terms of the people that fall, I don't know if it's not necessarily a fall because now the tide is rising. Everybody is getting more of a win share. And it's kind of weird to talk about this,

where everybody's numbers is going. They've all moved ahead three spaces in the game. There's three people that are gone. So coach came into the Blood Moon with a 5.5% chance to win. And in my calculations, he's about the 7th or 8th highest percent chance to win the game. After the Blood Moon,

coaches, chances to win the game are about the same. He goes from, in my calculation, he goes from 5.5% down to 5% to win the game. So he's only lost a half percentage point, but in these unofficial calculations, I have coach as the least likely player to win, and he's not necessarily on the bottom, anything but. But it's hard to imagine the scenario where he's going to get to the end.

He lost some key allies in Colby. And he also pisses off D also. He's lost Colby. He's lost Genevieve. Camilla was somebody from his original starting tribe. And we see that I wonder if, if coach maybe also perceive this, because this is when coach starts to crack.

Also, coach is doing the haikus. He's really trying to rally up the troops. He's trying to get Jonathan of like, hey, we got to, that's it. You're going to turn me back into the old coach. And this is where we see are really off-the-handle coach post-merge. Let's talk about then the first vote after the merge, which is when D gets voted out. And so we have our 14-person tribal council,

and here's where we start to get this really easy vote on D who came into the merge. I've had towards the bottom a six and a half percent chance to win the game. Ultimately, she's going to go out and we're going to redistribute her six and a half percent. Tiffany is going to drop down that she was at a 5.5% chance to win the game. I drop her down to 4.5%. But I have to keep giving away the winshare that each person had. And I'm going to give it to some more to Surrey and some more to Ozzy as well as we go further along. And what are you going to do?

I got to give it to somebody. And so let me just look at my data and make sure I have this right. So that Ceres at 10.5%. This is a level of dominance that nobody else has had. And Tiffany's at 4.5%. Is she too low, Tiffany? She's the most likely person to be voted out. She's going to get to a position where people feel like that she can win.

But what should her percentage be? And again, please in the comments respectfully. I would love to hear if there are any fallacies in my math. But I think I'm in the ballpark on all of this. And Surrey at this point, even though she's in a good spot, 10.5% with Ozzy at 9.5%. I did give some more to Jonathan after this vote. And so Jonathan is now going to be up. to, I have him in third at 9% after this.

Big swing coming up. We have our duos tribal council. Coach and Chrissy both go out in one night at the double duos tribal council. And we know that this is also when Rick ends up pulling out the fake hidden immunity idol and then ultimately saves him in Aubrey. and so in this double tribal council, coach is eliminated. Coach had the highest pregame probability.

He was at 5.5% coming in. And amazingly, coaches win, coach, like really, that this is so interesting, that coach, I think, stays between 5% and 6% to win the game the whole way through.

but you love coaches five and a half percent chance to win the game before it starts. And you don't love it as much when he has a 5% chance to win the game at the merge. You want your number to be going up as there's less people. And it seems like that as other people gained ground in the game, it seemed like that coaches' odds were diminishing comparatively. It's almost like, hey, I have. have $100,000 in the year 1900. Like, oh, wow, okay. I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm doing great. And now I have $100,000 in the year 2000. It's, I have the same amount of money, but it's

worth less. And I think that there's like this, everybody else is going up. Coach, I think, just stayed at the same level throughout the game. So his ultimate 5% chance to win the game at the when he goes out, not as impressive as where he started. Chrissy also, I feel like never really got going. I had her at 7.5% chance to win the game. Ultimately, she's out. But now we have to reassign coaches 6% and Chrissy's 7.5%. So now 13.5% of the pie have to go to other people.

And I think that it's fair to say that the biggest beneficiary here, is going to be Sari. And so I've got Sari now up to 12.5%. This is when she went to Exile Island. She came back. She said this is what we're doing. Rick Devons ends up making people upset by pulling out the fake idol.

People are going to be mad at him and Christian. And Christian and him have to lie. Nobody's upset with Sari after this. So Sari is able to add more to her lead. I have her at 12.5% here. Here's Ozzy is second, and I think I have them up to 11.5%. And while Jonathan, I still have him at 9.5%. I think it was hard to really bump up anybody else that much.

This is where Joe and Tiffany start to have something. Tiffany ends up being a pretty decent beneficiary here. I have her now up to 8%, where I think she came into this tribal council, 4.5%. so coach was being the biggest hater of Tiffany. I don't mean he actually hated her, but it was being the person who was wanting to see Tiffany out of the game. So that Tiffany gets a bump. And Aubrey as well, I have her gaining a little bit here

going from a 7% chance to win the game to an 8% chance to win the game. But people are upset with Rick and Christian after they lied about that they were going to vote for coach Chrissy, and they've pissed off Jonathan and Stephanie and Joe. And so ultimately, with the help of Jimmy Fallon, Christian is going to be the next person to go out of the game. And it's going to be a blow to Christian and his side of things.

So Christian is somebody who had a 9% chance to win the game. So this is probably now the most, the person with the most wins. share in the season to have gone home. I think that Colby and Genevieve, they had eight. I have Christian with 9% here, and he's going to go out of the game. And it's going to be a big night for people. So I haven't met 8.5% on his exit. It's the third largest win total of of people in the season behind ultimately Surrey and Ozzie. And we're going to see where Aubrey is going to continue to gain here.

Aubrey, I have her up at 9% by the time that Christian goes out. It's bad for Rick and Emily. I have them now at the least likely P players to win the game. They're both at about 7% after this as Surrey continues to be the leader at the big stack here. I have her up to 16% chance to win the game. And Ozzie is second in Rizzo. So Ceri's Wizard of Oz really dominating at this point. And so I have Sari, Ozzie, Rizzo, Tiffany as being the four most likely players to win the game at the point that Christian is eliminated.

But here comes Mr. Beast, and he's going to bring in the Mr. Beast super beware advantage, the coin. And at this time, this is where Jonathan says it's time to make a move on Ozzy. It ultimately gets turned around back on Stephanie. And Stephanie is going to go home. Stephanie, I probably did not. I should have bumped her up a little bit at the point where she gets the extra vote. but she lost her allies in Colby and Genevieve. She really tried to be part of the thing with Coach and Chrissy.

I think she gets a little bit kneecap there as that ultimately unfolds the double duos. She tries to lock it in with Jonathan and Joe, but ultimately it's not going to work out. So I have for Stephanie, I had her at about an 8.5% chance to win at the point that she goes out of the game. and where do I give her 8.5% to? And the answer is going to be the same as what I've been doing, is I'm giving more to Surrey. Now, I think that there's a school of thought where that Stephanie, I think, tried to say this in her exit press.

He's like, hey, I was with Surrey. I was going to stay loyal to her. We'll see if it's going to work out for her to not have me. I do think that there's a world where that Ceri did seem to be able to get Stephanie to do things that she wanted. Could Ceree have used Stephanie at the final six,

the final seven? I do, I wonder, I don't think it ultimately changes things, but I think that there was a school of thought. It kind of an interesting point from Stephanie to say that, well, listen, like, I wasn't, Ceri would have been able to get me to do what she wanted. I would have kept her. So that didn't ultimately have to get tested.

I do think that Stephanie would have probably, you know, at a point, realized, hey, we're going to lose to Surrey. Let's go ahead and vote her out. Maybe not at that exact moment, but it does seem like that that was coming. So, Surrey is doing great. We have her up to 17% here on the chart. And she gains. Ozzie is gaining.

Tiffany, I have as the third most likely player to win at this point. So for the Surrey, Ozzie, Tiffany, Rizzo, it's doing great, but look at Aubrey. Aubrey has now climbed up to kind of the middle of the pack, slowly rising, Aubrey. She gets to 10% win share here as we have only, what is it, nine players left in the game. So first time Aubrey crosses 10% in the game. I didn't know what to do with Joe. Joe is somebody, he's never in danger of going home. But we know that Joe ultimately, we see him get to the final three.

He doesn't get any votes. Is there a world where Joe still has win? Should Joe have a 0% chance to win? That seems wrong. He could get to the final three. First off, there's still, there's time left. Joe could win every immunity challenge. Joe could turn over a new leaf.

Joe could develop psychic abilities. Joe, so the cake isn't fully baked. So it's hard to say that Joe, we know Joe has a 0% chance to win. But does he have a 0% chance to win yet? I don't know. I don't know how to answer this. This is imprecise science that we're doing here. So Joe, I have him at 8% chance to win.

He could get to the final three with people who ultimately completely bomb the final tribal council. He gives the speech of his life. So I don't want to go too low with Joe's win equity. Am I not giving enough to Surrey? We know Surrey's not going to get there. But this feels still right to me that Surrey has a 17% chance to win the game.

She has to get there. Ozzy's still here. Things are going well. Let's talk about where things start to not. go well, okay? And let's talk about the power broker night. And I'm going to break this out. I'm going to talk about Emily first, and then we'll talk about Ozzy, and then we will look at the two events together. So here we go. All right, here's Emily, and Emily is going to come into this power broker night, and she's not in a great position. She is only at 8% chance.

to win and she's ultimately going to go out. Rick is going to play the idol and Rick is going to, even though he survives, Rick's percent to win the game. I have him going down from nine to six, but at this actual tribal council, Sarib plays the extra vote, she comes through it. I think that Ceres' chances to win the game actually peak in between the two tribal councils that I have Surrey here with a 20% chance to win the game after they vote out Emily before Jonathan goes to the second tribal council that that she has a 20% chance to win the game heading into the final eight. Ozzie, I have him at a 16.5% chance to win the game at the time he's about to get voted

out of the game. So Ozzy is getting ready for the fall. Jonathan, I bump him up a little bit in between the tribal councils. I think he goes from 10% to 11% in voting out Emily at the first half of the power broker tribal council. But let's talk about what's going to come next. And here's where Ozzy, he's making his speech to Aubrey, and we should bring in, this is where Aubrey's game really starts to heat up, where I probably should have made a bigger deal about how Aubrey wanted Christian out and worked with Jonathan. She didn't want to be

seen with, she almost saw the writing on the wall with Rick and Emily and Devin and Christian that she didn't want to be part of it. And so she gets told the plan by Ozzy. And she says that, you know, Ozzy's laid out the plans. It's like Ozzie's giving me his final tribal council speech about why he deserves $2 million before my ass is even out the door? I don't think so, buddy. I'm using this information to save my ass and shake up the entire game. Aubrey is the likely person to go here at this tribal council. You would have thought going into, you saw how the tribes were made up, you looked at it and you said, okay, this is probably going to be Aubrey who goes out. But instead, Aubrey flips it around on Ozzie. Rizzo

doesn't tell him to play his idol. Aubrey's going to shoot up here from 10.5% chance to win the game. I have her going up to 14% chance to win the game after Ozzy goes out. I have Jonathan also getting a big boost from this. Jonathan, I have him at 12, 13%, and he goes up to 17% to win the game after Ozzy goes out. And Surrey is going to start the draw. Saris peaked. Seri's, she hit 20 after Emily went home.

But now Ozzie's gone. And now it's 17. It's not over for Surrey. She still has a 17% chance to win. Rizzo. Ozzie was mad at Rizzo. I have Rizzo's chances to win the game going up. I have Rizzo going from about 12, 13 to 17 to win the game.

So it's a good move for Rizzo, ultimately. He increases his chances to win the game as Ozzie has now gone out of of the game. But now, Aubrey has entered a different phase of the game. It's almost like Aubrey's looking at our charts here. Aubrey seems to be the person very keenly aware of who is the person that we need to be looking for, looking out for. And so she worked to get out Ozzy. Let's talk about, now Rick Devons is going to go home. And this is kind of an open and shut vote. Everybody's on the same page.

We need to take out Rick Devin's. Rick Devin's could wait. Actually, I'm sorry. This is, I had a slide that was about the blood moon before and after. And so you see here from coming into the blood moon to ultimately where we left the blood moon. Surrey kind of starts it and ends it in a similar place. But there was a peak in the middle. And so it was good for her to get rid of Emily and not good for her.

I probably, Seri should probably be lower, I think, honestly, but I still see a path for her. And the biggest winner of the night, Jonathan, he goes from 10% chance to win to 17% chance to win after the Blood Moon. Joe is just, uh, stay, stays the same.

Steady, uh, but Joe, even by, by two people going out of the game, he increases his chances to win the game up to about 10.5%. Rick goes down for the night on the power broker twist after losing Emily and playing, his idol. And ultimately, here comes Rick Devons. Rick is going to go home. I had Rick as the least likely player to win the game at this point. It does. In hindsight, yes, Rick Devons is very

dangerous if he gets to the end, but nobody seems to even be interested in letting him get to the end. And so it seems that am I too low on Rick having an 8% chance to win the game at the point that he gets voted out. I don't know. Is that hindsight being 2020? I guess he could find idols. The jury likes him. He could win challenges.

Perhaps I'm too low on Rick Devin's, but either way. I had said, I thought that Surrey needs to keep Rick Devin's in the game at this point. She said no. I'll defer to her. But after Rick ends up going out of the game, we have to award Rick's percentage of the high to somebody. I give it mostly to Jonathan. Jonathan, I have now at a season high, 21%.

I believe that's higher than even the peak that Surrey was at. So headed into the final six, I have Jonathan now as the most likely player to win the game. Tiffany also gets a boost here. She's up to 18%. And then Rizzo has 17. I think this, like, I've always said I thought this was bad for Surrey. She's down to 16%.

But here comes Aubrey. Still only the fifth best chance to win the game at the final six. And still a better chance than Joe, who I just don't see a path in the final three. Let's talk about Surrey. Surrey, oh boy, what a ride for Surrey. Surrey was doing great in the game. Ultimately, I think that if the blood moon doesn't happen

the way it does where Ozzie goes home, you really could see a way that Surrey, wins this game. She had a great chance, but we see the plan starts. Let's vote out Tiffany. And then it ultimately lands on it being

that we're going to take out Surrey. And Aubrey is very aware of this. Aubrey says about Surrey, we're playing with the most elite survivor player of all time. I think she's better than Tony and Sandra. She's a mastermind.

Surrey is trying to turn the tables on me. It's really hard in my position right now to go up against the best, but come on. I love when my back's against the wall. So Aubrey knows she has to get Surrey out of the... Everybody does. And I really feel like that Surrey did a great job of making moves in this season that didn't have her fingerprints on them. The coach and Chrissy vote is one of the best examples I can think of where Surrey gets two people out of the game. She really helps out her own cause and nobody's mad at Surrey.

She does it in a way where people are mad at Rick, people are mad at Christian. It was brilliant. Ultimately, the back of the baseball card, I think, ends up being the biggest factor for Surrey. She wasn't really doing anything flashy, but I think people just woke up. Aubrey reminded, everybody, hey, guys, remember, this is Surrey. We're going to lose to her. And it was just too easy of a vote for people to get rid of Surrey. And so we have a big chunk of the pie to redistribute. Surrey has 16% chance to win. And so some of it is going to go to Jonathan, who I then have after this vote of taking out Surrey, I have him go from a 21% chance to win the game to a 33% chance to win the game. But look at Aubrey. Look at Aubrey in the in the 10,000.

Brown on your chart that Aubrey goes from 15% here up to a 25% chance with. This is Aubrey's biggest jump of the season. Aubrey is now has the second best chance to win the game at the final five. Rizzo, by voting out Surrey, improves his odds a bit. He goes from 17.5% to 20%. Tiffany is down also that she's lost her ally. she's now become the number one threat. She's got to win two immunity challenges to win the game.

And Joe, who we know is drawing dead. I don't want to give him, I don't want to give him nothing, but he's at 9%. And so let's go into now the finale of Survivor 50. And, you know, we know where this is going. Tiffany is going to be the next person voted out. Tiffany's win conditions were, if she, got to the final three, she was going to win.

Ultimately, that did not happen. She was one puzzle piece short. And so Tiffany, at the point that she's eliminated from the game, I had Tiffany at a 13% chance to win the game. That was the calculations that I came up with of Tiffany needs to win

the Final 5 immunity challenge and the final four immunity challenge or or make fire. I think that that was the chances that that she had to get both the final five immunity and the final four immunity or fire. That was her scenarios, which I calculated at about a 13% chance to have that happen. If she gets to the end, she wins. But she didn't. She did not win that challenge and she's out.

So I reassign her 13%. And so at this point, we have our, going into our final four, Jonathan, I still have as the favorite. He's at 36% here on my chart. And so then there's Aubrey, who's now above 30% to win the game, and there's Rizzo, and there's Joe.

My math here is that if Jonathan gets to the final three with Rizzo and Joe, I think he's got a 50, 50, maybe 65, 40% chance to win the game. I don't know how many people were going to vote for Rizzo. I think it was really going to come down to Emily and Christian and Rick in terms of what they wanted to do. Did they want to go with Jonathan or with Rizzo?

I think you could argue it either way. If Aubrey gets to the final three, she's winning. We know this. And it's not necessarily a done deal, but it is likely. But Aubrey needs to win the final immunity challenge. And so this is basically the chance, this 32% chance, that what's the chance that Aubrey is going to win? Maybe it's even too high that Aubrey still has to,

I guess there's also a chance she has two shots at it. She has to either win the Final Four immunity challenge or beat somebody in fire. It might be more unlikely that she'd beat somebody in fire because I think that maybe Jonathan might put himself into the fire. So Aubrey is at 32%. Rizzo, you know, his win condition is he's got to get to the end with Jonathan and Joe and ultimately have a great final tribal counsel and beat out Jonathan.

And then there's Joe. I have still at 8%. And so Aubrey, though, she knows that Tiffany, it's not good. She says if TIF's out at the end, she's the kind of person who could take the whole thing. I'm having flashbacks to Survivor call wrong. I'm looking at Michelle Part 2. If Tiffany gets to the end, she wins the thing.

And so, Aubrey knows. She's like, Tiffany's a threat they need to deal with. Somebody who can beat her at the end. Let's then talk about one more person to go home. It's the Riz God. And at the point that Rizzo goes home, this is the first time that we see that Aubrey has moved into pole position.

Jonathan goes from having a percentage chance to win the game. of, I believe, 35, 36, and he's going to drop down to 23% chance after Aubrey wins Sumotion. It doesn't matter that he beats, he starts to fire like nothing against Rizzo and Jeff is going to tell everybody before it happens. It doesn't matter. Aubrey, she shoots up from a 32% chance to win before Sumotion to, I have her as 70%.

Maybe that's too low. but I think that there was a chance that it wasn't a foregone conclusion Aubrey automatically wins in the final three. I still think that the swing voters were Christian, Rick, Emily, and Rizzo. They all end up go, all the swing voters end up going to Aubrey ultimately, but I don't think it was impossible that Jonathan could have pulled them. I think he'd have to pull all of them because he only has three votes. I think it ends up being eight to three in the final.

tribal council. So he needs to get to 6-7 to win the game. And is there a 23% chance of that happening? And Joe, I love Joe. I got him at 7%. There's a chance that maybe he's still going to have the tribal council of his life. And ultimately, we know how it goes. And I don't That's my, that was my exercise of how do we get here to ultimately look at all this. And I know that I'm sure there are points in this that you said, Rob, that that's off. This person should be higher. This person should be lower. But I think that the ballpark tells you a lot in terms of like, you had this person at 5%.

It should have been 7. It should have been 8. I really thought when I came into this that there was going to be a point where, as I said, that I thought that the Kalo tribe blew it. I thought that maybe, and I thought that the Vatu tribe got very unlucky, and the Kalo tribe blew it, and they opened up the door, and then ultimately, Opry was able to take advantage of other people's mistakes, and that we would have seen where there were players who had huge shares to win the game ultimately plummet.

And that's not really what we saw. That ultimately, other than Ozzy at that point where Ozzy's at the final eight and ultimately doesn't play his idol and goes from 16.5% to zero. That wasn't really how the season ended up playing out. That there were people who were starting to get ahead. And we're not going to let that happen. and it didn't really matter so much what happened earlier in the game. That there were really nothing, there were no things that were from the first, even two-thirds

of the game where you could really run up the score, where it's not as much like a poker tournament, where that if I build up a big stack of chess, early in the tournament, I have this incredible advantage going into the end of the game. If anything, it's more of a liability. So I think season 50 and Aubrey's win, I think, really did teach us a lot about the state of Survivor in after season 50. because we've been trained for years that the answer to how do you survive is make big moves, you build the right alliances, outmaneuver your opponents, win the fishy every week.

And players this season, they did all these things. They got voted out for doing them. Because the moment you make a big move, you become the biggest threat. And the moment that you become the biggest threat, the other players have reasons to work together against you. So almost every player who got too much of the pie at any point got eliminated. Colby at 7%. Genevieve at 8%.

Gone. Christian does a 3-2-1 against Mike White. He's gone. Mike White and Charlie are gone. Surrey gets up to 20%. She's gone. Ozzie is at 16.5%. He's gone.

Aubrey spent most of the season at the bottom of the win percentage chart. and it was like she was innately tracking who was ahead. She had 3% and she noticed where other people were. She had no immunity wins until the one that mattered most. She wasn't seen as the most strategic player on the cast. She wasn't the most physically dominant. She wasn't the audience fan favorite. But she's the one who won.

And I think that she understood something that's fundamental about 50 seasons of the show where we are now. And the name of the show is not outwit, outplay out last. The name of the show is Survivor. But it's not about surviving the elements like they originally intended. It's how do you not be the most interesting person in the room? How do you not get too much attention? How do you avoid doing too much in the beginning in the middle? Because at best, you increase your chance to win by a couple of percentage points. It's a sugar high. It makes a lot of, it makes a lot of, you more likely to lose. Survive in advance.

Don't get voted out. Sandra said it best, anybody but me. And Aubrey proved it on the biggest stage that the show's ever built. It's called Survivor. Survive every round. After 50 seasons, Aubrey proved it's not about surviving the elements anymore. It's about who can survive the bloodbath and make the jury happy that you were the one to do it. So kudos to Aubrey.

This really did change the way that I've... It's a lot of things that we've talked about over the years in terms of, no, that's not big moves. It's more little moves. But it's almost in some way, does it even matter what moves you are making? As long as you don't get voted out and don't piss everybody off, does it really even matter what you do before day 20 of a Survivor's season. It's an interesting thing to think about. I think that the show really does not want the players to think about it in this way.

I think they really want players to play hard, go for it, dig deep. Everything about the show is push, push, push, push, push. But I do wonder if that this season, more than any, shows us, especially as the number of players in the game go up and the number of players who actually could win the game goes up, it really does seem like that Aubrey played it 100% the right way of sit back, don't get too much attention, hey, everybody knows I have an idol, I'm giving it back, I don't want this, it's a scarlet letter, let me take a look at who's the most likely players to win, and then when the time is right, strike and have incredible,

amazing timing with winning that final immunity. easier said than done, but I think that Aubrey understood the assignment. And thank you for coming along with me on this wild ride. I had a lot of fun doing this. Ultimately, we'll see what you thought in the comments. Thank you so much. And we are going to also, if you're not Aubreyed out, Chappelle and I are doing a Survivor Call Wrong rewatch starting on Monday on RHAP.

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