RHAP: We Know Survivor - Survivor Global: Survivor 49 Episode 8 with Taran Armstrong

Episode Date: November 15, 2025

Survivor Global: Survivor 49 Episode 8 with Taran Armstrong Survivor Global host Shannon Guss speaks to strategy expert Taran Armstrong to get into the weeds of episode 8 of Survivor 49. The pair discuss the decisions of the swing votes, who was really in control, the decoy plan, wielding implicit immunity, looking past the edit […]

Australian Survivor is saying. Selviour. Survivor. Survive. Survive. 21 South African. 12. Ordinary Australians.

Svente New Zealand. Svomalese. One million pounds. Million. Euron. Shkali. A million. Rumbli.

Hi, Habispo. The Survivor 29 for the adventure of a lifetime. Adventure of a lifetime. Hello, everyone, and welcome to RHAP's coverage of Survivor 49 for Survivor Global. I'm your host, Shannon Gus, here to discuss episode 8. We have something to talk about. I think we really, it's episode 8, but we've hit our straps here now. I think the last episodes were enjoyable.

This was the first time this season where I'm like, okay, like there's some like meaty strategic stuff here and to talk about it I have the best guest he is the king of big brother strategy he is a perfect person to wade through all these machinations literally wrote the book on big brother it is an armstrong kind of thank you for being here thank you for having me it's always a fun time yeah a long time no see after san francisco last week but i will say since then you i noted recorded your deep dive with morgan it's a long an RHAP history, which is so rude, because when Rob and I did that, Rob was like, no one will ever beat this.

I think he was like, won't even try. And then you did. And that was kind of all I had. And like, you are writing book. Like, I felt really selfish. You couldn't have, like, cut it by 20, 25 minutes. It was not in my control, I will tell you. The deep dive never are.

Right? We were saying this last week. Like, deep dive, sometimes I'll be like, yeah, this person didn't last us long. This would be like two and a half hours. And it's just not. But so I don't know Morgan at all. Should I slide into her DMs to like get angry about this or I don't know. Does you understand what I thought?

What have you done? Yeah. I don't think you want to pick a fight with Morgan. Okay. It's fine. It's it's it's we'll just have to go seven and a half hours today. Yeah, I guess so. Yeah.

So buckle in. There's quite a bit to talk about. and I'm getting that record back but Taryn how are you doing how are you enjoying the season of survival I mean I'm doing well I can't say I've been loving the season and that's not to do with

the players who I think are doing a wonderful job I think it's largely to do with how the structure just feels so repetitive now and I also just have an issue with the and I talk about this probably every time

podcast about Survivor, but I just don't love the way that they portray the show in the editing all that much. I feel like I'm just not getting a well enough rounded version of the events and the characters on screen that I would like. But yeah, we got some actual things to at least dive into in the last couple of episodes, which has been nice. Just, you know, especially I would say in the modern era of reality television, it used to be that Survivor was like a breath of fresh air after watching episodes of Big Brother, which were never very good. It was like, oh, Survivor's at least entertaining me. But now I'm like, when I'm turning on a reality show like this week, last week, and I turn

on Survivor, I'm like, oh, this is my least favorite of like physical Asia, squid game, the Traders, UK, even Amazing Race, I'm having a little more fun with right now. And it's like, that's rough, dude. Like, that's kind of rough. But I'm excited to talk about this one. Well, the shade on Amazing Race, like, even Amazing Race.

Listen, that one's been rough for a while. Well, to be fair, it'll, it's all be brought the plays at the moment, right? Maybe if they didn't survive the season. That has helped considerably. That would be your domain. Yeah, I mean, look, even this episode, which was by far my favorite of the season,

getting in its own way. The live tribal council we can't even hear that goes nowhere where you know production are like they got up and they're whispering. It's like they've been doing that for 15 seasons. Like unless it's going to be like actually interesting and if we can't even hear what it is you're just wasting my time. So that literally like

they're whispering and then at voting confessional they're like wow that was a wild one. I was like I would have liked to have seen it or I guess heard it. Yeah. Show it to me or don't. Don't do this which is neither. And And for sure, like, I mean, just like little things, like the way they're producing,

and it's not like the player's fault, I don't think, but like even producing Steven, they've done that a lot of Savannah this season on like, what a space launch vote. I work in space and this was a rocket launch to the blind side. I'm like, no one talks like that. He doesn't talk like in Savannah as well. Like coming to you, like, I'm a podcaster. And if I know if I were out there, they'd be like podcast about this and I would do it. But I'm like, it's that kind of like cringe, unrelatable.

and then like the main thing in this episode is obviously it's the split tribal which we all roll our eyes about I think in getting to that and my concern is that it was such a good episode that I think production are going to get the wrong idea because to be fair cutting it down to size the pressure of that did bear out on these cracks and we did get a genuinely surprising vote like I've said all season kind of the most predictable person has gone home every time I did not see emcee going before the episode and even going into tribal I was between it and that's

and I don't know who's going next. So that part is fun. But I think it's the wrong lesson to production because, yeah, okay, this was fun. The other side going might have been pretty bleak. I guess if Sophie wins, especially, and they can, like, split. It's a very standard, like, five to six person vote. And I think a 10-person vote, even though it was seven to three, like, who knows? You know, Uli are running all over them at this point.

Like, Rizzo with the idol, if Savannah had one immunity, Sof seems to have integrated pretty well socially where they might not want to sacrifice her and split on her. And like we've seen these cracks in Heena with Sophie beforehand. We might have seen that bear out anyway, so we'll never know what that might have been. But they're so scared that that might just be a steam roll. We might get like a one episode per gonging

that we have to change it up again. And that means that we've had four tribal iterations in four episodes. Like we asked for one swap and they were like have all the swaps in the world. And I'm like, I feel I need to be more. way more specific with my needs to you. Yeah, I think, I don't know

if it's necessary from a game perspective, and I think it's crazy from a TV perspective. I don't know how the casuals are like, who's with what now? Four tribal iterations and four episodes is absurd to me. I will say, so something I was talking about in San Francisco is that I love the regulation podcast as a podcast.

I have a friend Andrew who does that podcast. They are casual fans of survival. I mean, Andrews watched his whole life, but not watching this season. Jeff is like a fan, but they're pretty casual. They don't get involved in like the discussions online much.

And Jeff on that podcast was like, hey, are you guys watching? They were like, no, he's like, good, don't. It's a bad season. And I was like, oh, that's a bad sign when like the casual fans are just like very apathetic. However, the latest podcast, he was like,

oh, it's getting good. So that's my casual barometer. Jeff Ramsey seems to think the season's getting better. I'm not they confused like I just think tracking these tribes is literally impossible I mean the thing is it's like is it confusing when

there isn't a really like it doesn't matter coherent through line anyway yeah that's true you know what I mean sometimes people go home and it doesn't you like you don't need to remember what the tribes were two episodes ago and if I quizzed you on them now could you get him could I get him

I think I can do it. I'm not 100% sure and I podcast about the show. Yeah. But it doesn't matter as you're saying, right? I mean, I think it's been and I don't think it's strictly a new era thing, but I think that it has been getting worse.

The first season I really remember this being an issue for me was game changers where it just felt like there was no consistent through line to the plot. And like every round they tried to make its own thing. And that has felt so apparent this season where in the first like six episodes

every time we checked back in with Uli it was the same story. It was Juan touched my bag and Sage feels on the outs. And it was that over and over and over and we were getting very little from Hina and we were then sticking with disaster tribe. And it was just like it felt like

we were repeating the same episode six times in a row. until finally it paid off in the seventh episode when Sage and Joanne flip. I guess technically the flip on Shannon happened earlier than that. So you could say maybe it paid off a little bit in the sixth episode. But it really just felt to me like, why did we, why did we have to reset that every single time? Like every single round needs a reminder every single. Because like that's the only through line they have as opposed to who the hell is Yellow Sophie?

And why is she a big threat all of a sudden? And who is she aligned with? And why doesn't MC want to work with her more than she wants to work with Sage and Juwan? And like what else is going on on Hina? Where is Christina in all of this? Is she tight with Stephen and MC in the way? You know what I mean?

Like feels so strange to me that we have 90 minute episodes and so much time to tell these stories. And instead we're focusing on like these individual stories of what's happening in this episode right now. And you can tell that it's, It's not just the edit. It's baked into the very structure of the show because every round is a new,

as you mentioned, tribe format going into tribal. They want these resets. And I don't mind the resets. I don't hate the split tribe thing. I don't think it's a terrible thing. The only thing that frustrates me is when it's, okay, now there's five people or technically six at tribal, but that's not different. That's the same.

This is not different anymore. We've only had one actual vote with more than six people all season. yeah Christina if Christina wins the game she will go to six tribal councils because she missed this one she went to her first last week and fire to me doesn't count as a tribal council that's not a vote so she has a maximum of six votes like how can you and winners of one with six tribal councils it's hard to cement your legacy people talk about is poverty a two-time winner she went to nine tribal council christina a 0.5 winner she would be yeah I mean she'd be points I'm trying to yeah if that's point five this would be like point three right i mean i'm not everyone goes by tribal councils i certainly do really factor that into the way that i rank winners it's not christina's fault she kept being in tribes that won challenges and then one like then savannah won this for her and then people will say like well you know you've earned that win and maybe like for mc and sophy yellow sophy that's been a big part of their journey they've been big physical threats who have

earned these tribal wins but also it's it's easier to win challenges in the new era where two thirds of people win challenges and something like this gives another opportunity for a challenge that's actually an individual challenge that you don't even need to win so you can't even say that it's like on merit.

That was just like a Tom Westman like a super physical player contributing to those lack of tribal councils who does not go to a lot of tribal councils to win. It's not as earned in the new era and I'm very cognizant of the fact that every time I come into a podcast

we do spend 10 minutes pitching about the new era and it's unfortunate because I really like this episode but I think that the positives that I'll say is in that vein, which is when a show is so heavily produced, so we have this with Australia and Survivor, we have this with New Air Survive, we have this across reality TV, I know you have it with Big Brother. But it's so heavily produced, like, how much agency can we give to the players?

I'm here to say, the player did that. You know what I mean? And that's what I'm saying. It's like, if someone wins all the challenges, it's not my value system, but like, you did that. If someone, again, has an easier road to not being a tribal council, and it's from a production and a structural standpoint, I care about it less. So then this week comes along and it's like because the edit has been so uneven because Uli are our main characters, we literally have Sof who's basically an Ooli and Sophie

and I've differentiated them by being like we know one, we don't know the other and that can be like a good analog for the way I see both of these groups. Ooli are going to come out on top. When I asked you to be in this week of the podcast, I was like, I don't know what's going to happen, but like it's not going to be the three people on the bottom, right? That would be shocking. So how are they going to do it to win? And I thought it would be very unfortunate if they just got a lucky break in the split tribal.

And we would say it's not at all earned. Now, the split tribal is very constricting. However, I do think that it's a credit to Oolie and largely Rizzo for me in this episode where he earns this. His implicit immunity scares them and they scatter and they break. And it is a heavily produced episode. But that's earned and it's real. And that's why I like this episode because I could sink my teeth into decisions people

are making where it's actually on the player's agency. And I'm really glad that's what we got because it could have been just, you know, and even if like, okay, Rizzo just plays his idol, it's a four-on-one, he plays it, he sends someone home as an example. There might have been split machinations. It's also accredited him that he still has his idol. We can talk about all of the implicit immunity, but that would have been a little bit more boring.

But the fact that he gets to keep it and he's really used it to crack this other group, like that to me has earned strategic gameplay. Yeah, I agree. I was really happy to see Rizzo properly bluff the idol in the previous episode. You know, it's so rare that somebody like A does it and then B does it correctly by like not saying who he's going to vote for and so forth.

And it did. It wasn't necessarily at tribal that it scared them, but the idea of him using it scared them scared them enough to not vote him or Savannah. He was able to then not use it. And you could argue that it's his inability to see just how much Sage and Joanne have turned on him that prevented him from using it.

But at the end of the day, he still bluffed it, he still kept it, and was able to then use it in the following round in almost the same way. And you could argue again that he's trusting Sage and Joan too much. But the two tribals in a row, it's like maybe he should be trusting Sage and Juan as much considering that they're not voting for him.

And so I think you can absolutely credit that. And then on top of that as well, being able to push for his own agenda here is even more impressive, even like better of like a situation to come from this. It's pretty clear that for whatever reason, Sophie is a bigger target and somebody that is less ingrained in the power structure of Hina and the Sage-Juan situation. And so being able to remove MC from that and keeping Sophie is potentially crucial. Then you do have the Savannah of it all, which definitely complicates things. Her presence there alone significantly impacts, I think, the potential direction of this vote.

And then also the fact that she's going to be able to have an extra vote. Next round is going to be very interesting, I'm sure. but I definitely like the way that Rizzo has played if his only way of survival was playing the idol this round then he's probably just screwed next round anyway and as he said he doesn't care if he's eighth or second or whatever he said he's going to play to win and keeping that idol could be crucial to a win

and so I like the way he played it yeah that's what I agree with you like it's a mindset like there are points where it's like the reeds not great where he is like, well, good thing I came back with Joanne and from we see, well, we see ever, and especially at that point, like, he has not really come back with Joanne. John says to him at the beginning of the episode, he was like, it was never going to be you.

Jawan was the one specifically pushing for Rizzo last episode. So there are parts of that where he's maybe reading it wrong, but it almost doesn't matter because again, it is a general mindset that is like, he's not saying they're definitely not voting for me. He's saying like, in the position where they are voting for me, things are bleak anyway. I'd rather just kind of risk it and take my

idol through and I can get like a big win. And I do think that to me is becoming the theme of the season. I've spent a lot of time with the last few days thinking about how both MC and Rizzo last week used their public idol. You know, I was, I wasn't very high on how MC used it last week, but I was like, well, it's not a game losing move. Now this week might disagree. Um, knowledge is power, notwithstanding in case like that gets passed or taken from her, but she should have had an idol this week. Yeah. I said it was unnecessary. She needs to not have the numbers of Sage and Joanne where she spoke about not being able to really trust them, not having that tested,

but then they also need a vote for her. And she has a public idol. The odds of that are so low, as Rizzo knows, right? Like, taking that shot where you can't split is audacious. Like, none of these people have been really to this point, maybe now, but, like, audacious enough to take that shot. They're doing the exact same thing with Rizzo last week. And Rizzo uses that.

Like, Rizzo uses implicit immunity to get votes off him. His mindset and his approach is so good, where he basically says, this might be better. We said that last week in how he maybe if he could have saved Nate, that would necessarily be better. He says, I'm down in the numbers now. That means I can be more fluid. That makes him technically, you would think less of a threat.

And he gets to keep his idol. He sees that as better. I agree with him. Like, I love the way that he looks at the game. And I love the way that he maintains his idol defensively and uses it offensively to really scare people away. I think the through line of Heena cracking here is directly impacted by how scared they are of the idol. They're going to splits around it.

and things break apart. I think that's the main instigator in this episode compared to MC who used her idol very conservatively when it was so unlikely that it would be her. And if she was worried it would be her, she could have used implicit immunity more actively with a public idol to get the votes of her to make sure, even if Sage and Joanne aren't with you

and we haven't tested that out, you're not going to be the vote. You know, you have other ways of being immune and keep your idol. And I really think that binary is what's going to define this part of the season. It's Uli having some bite to them being more risk-taking. Now, no one threw challenges and they should have,

but Uli still will push it a little further, and he never been so conservative, and MC's move with Idol is so conservative, and I think that's what will make them be run over the top, because the lesson is going to be, you know, when MC's saying things like, I just need one more night, and Rizzo's saying, I don't care about one more night, give me first or nothing, that's the theme,

that's a lesson we're meant to learn of how to play this game. And it's actually something that I also agree with. You know, I always say like, you don't want to just sit at the end with someone you can't beat. Take out threats, get to the end in a winning position. And I think that that's all in the same vein of like actually progress your game rather than just kind of like crawling through, especially when you're in a position of power like he can have been

and have the capacity to like actually really push your game forward. Yeah, I do hear that. I do think there is something, especially in the modern era of Survivor to sometimes surviving one more round is all you need. And then the whole game opens up, right? But I think it's very dependent on the position that you're in.

Because sometimes, like, for instance, if you're Nate, if you're Nate and you probably just needed to survive that one round and who knows where the rest of the game takes you. If that had been Savannah instead of Nate, you know,

maybe Nate is looking at a deep run in the game. And so if he has a way to survive that one round, who knows, right? But I do think in general, yeah, you are looking at this scenario where, you know, how likely is it that one round will help me? Because sometimes one round is just one round, and it will be you next time. And you do need to make a bigger play. In fact, I would say that's most of the time.

It's just sometimes you just need to squeeze through this one round of vulnerability and then you're back in it. And so being able to determine which is which, I think is huge. And I'm sure that MC in the moment last week felt like this is a danger point for me because of all the idols and because this is the first vote. And if I managed to keep myself immune for this round, we should have the numbers for the future. And I don't hate that mindset. Obviously, she couldn't anticipate or maybe should have anticipated given the typical structure. He definitely should have anticipated the tribal.

She was saying that ex-interviews that she was like, didn't. I'm like, how? they are not creative with this. That's fair. I was going to say, couldn't anticipate, but then I immediately realized, you know what?

It's pretty formulaic, which is part of what our complaints are. So, yeah, maybe you do have to anticipate that there's going to be some kind of split tribal and an immunity idol

would be incredibly valuable in a spot like that. And so, yeah, holding on to it maybe makes more sense. And, oh, you know, MC was one of the few, though, that hadn't been super familiar

with the show, right? She had kind of recently come to it. That's true. So it makes sense that she was maybe not quite as aware of what was to comment. Yeah. I mean, even so though, like not being as ingrained in the discussion and just watching a bunch of seasons, like who knows

which ones she watched, I could see why she was maybe not as ready to anticipate something like the split tribal. I mean, any newer season that she watched, there is like no anomaly to the fact that the first time they're an even numbers pretty much. They're not going to do it at eight. So it's not even like, oh, I expected it at 12, but they did it at 10. Like, they're at 10 now.

It has been a different format in the pre-emerge than they've had. So maybe you're like, well, they've really like thrown out the rulebook. But, I mean, you have to think a good chance of Lispit tribal. Yeah, I mean, look, I agree with you that, like, sometimes you just need one more day. It is about assessing that position because sometimes you're in such a good spot that you don't need to be that desperate. Like, that's what I think, like, for MC, like, she was in a great spot. Even if her spot was worse than she thought, like, even if she doesn't have those numbers of Sage and Joon, then again you can be creative with getting the voice off you have a public immunity idol like your chances of going a solo you're not in that desperate position and you can afford to do that also but then ris was on the other side with like my spot is so bad that I actually think I need to like make active moves to progress my game so it's like it's when you're like in the middle but you're like I could just hold on here for a day and see that that is when you know and obviously it's better than nothing but I think if you're in the position of like I can really like set up my game here versus not um

You would, I mean, but for me, it's like a no-braider that emcees shouldn't play the idol. But she was so distrustful of Sajun Jawan. She was saying in exit interviews, like, oh, we were going to go vote for Rizzo, but then Ja-Wan got wind of the plan. Do you want in your group? So if they, to the point where they didn't trust Staj and Juan so much that they were going to do like a 5-4-2, possibly and like leave them out of the vote to not tell them. I mean, it works numerically.

Kind of screws over the group in the future, but it seems like she really, like, wasn't trusting what they were giving her. And that's also not the right rate. I feel like she must have watched, I don't even remember which season it was at this point, where they're like four or five people with immunity idols went home with it in their pocket. That must have been one of the seasons that she watched right before she went out. Yeah, and that's affected things ever since it happened.

But it also, it also, what it is, is it's just about playing scared or not. Like, yes, like, then look at how Rizzo articulates it compared to her. Like, Rizzo also watched that season, I can assure you. like Rizzo also knows that that's a threat but he's just not as scared of it because he knows the possible gain. It's literally just all risk versus reward and being audacious versus being conservative.

Sometimes you can't afford to be audacious and that's when you take your extra day. But M-C actually could really afford to be quite braver than she was more scared than Rizzo, who's in a worse spot. And still here, I mean, Rizzo not playing it here is very, very brave and it's on a good read and it's on a good mentality

even when the read's not great. I think to like really set himself up. So to me, that's kind of the theme of the season. I will go against DeGrain and say, I think this happens, even if Savannah doesn't come to that beach. I think we still get this outcome. What do you think? It's so hard to know because Savannah getting there does significantly change the calculus.

Like even if you were planning to do Rizzo, the second Savannah shows up, you do have to start to shift your mindset on like whether or not you're willing to take the risk because you can't afford to hedge in any way. Clearly, Sophie was going to try to hedge. You know, Jawan and or Sage could have also hedged in any direction that they wanted to. And, you know, given that MC was willing to seemingly sell out Sophie, they probably had a win on the revote no matter what happened. So it was a lot easier to put votes on Rizzo and go for that, that take. takeout before Savannah showed up.

Second Savannah shows up, now you're in trouble because, first of all, now all of a sudden, Rizzo realizes he's got some sway and he wants to go MC instead of Sophie. And that's annoying because you can't really say no to that very easily, assuming that Savannah's voting, which you kind of have to. And then B, you are now in this locked in scenario where... Either Rizzo is telling me the truth and he's voting MC and he's not playing his idol or he's lying. He doesn't trust me.

He's lying to me. And he's going to play his idol. And if he's lying to me about playing his idol, he's probably also lying to me about who he's voting for, which means it's probably me. That would be my assumption is if you're lying about one thing, you very likely are lying about another thing. And that means that the situation where I am incorrect about what you are going to do. means I'm eliminated. And do I want to take that much risk right now when there are viable reasons for why I might want to keep Rizzo around?

And, yeah, snip out one of the Hina members. You know, it's not the worst spot for me. So, yeah, Savannah showing up would significantly change my way of figuring out what I'm going to do in this spot. But then the question is, and the question you asked me is, did it change or were they always planning to do that? And it's just so hard to know.

But as I mentioned, I do think there is plenty of reason to actually vote with Rizzo here, even without Savannah, which again is that you, A, have the excuse of Rizzo had an idol. We couldn't risk it. He was saying he was going to play it. So we had to vote Sophie, which was, I assume, the plan that they would have done if Savannah hadn't showed up. And then you get to take out a Hina member without significant blood on your hands. You can still split votes on Rizzo, Savannah, SOF or whatever in the following tribal if you want

to continue to vote with Hina. Only now you're in a better spot with them because they've lost a number. That's a decent plan on its own. And I don't hate it. So it's very possible to me that that was what they were considering. I think this wasn't good. If we're talking about it from Sage and Joanne, I mean, I totally get your perspective of like, if they're lying, it could be me.

Because I'm like, well, I never heard St. and Joanne's name. If anyone should begin, have the capacity to be audacious, it's the people who are not in direct trouble, but they could be lying. I don't think playing the idol is such an outright lie often. You know what I mean? It's like, I'm not going to play it, but I do. Firstly, I feel like Rizzo was a little bit more vague about whether he'd play the

idol, sort of if he's, like, outwardly lying. I also think you could be like, I'm voting with you and not playing the idol and then get spooked and play it. So there are ways. where it's never going to bounce back on you. And if they're reading that, it's a little paranoid. And I get it because it's a constricted group. But from what we can see, St.

and Juan are just never on the table. So when I look at these kind of two pairs, not that Sophie and MC were a great pair in the end, but like I look at where it gets to you for especially like Sophie and MC. And I think you're, you just need to survive. Like, and actually Sophie is pushing the hardest to flush the idol. And I'm like, you, for you, a victory. is surviving.

And I'm seeing... Yeah, I mean, I hated Sophie's plan. Yeah, me too. Let's talk about it. Because other people really like it. I really hated the plan. But, yeah, everyone was into it. I'm so glad to not see.

But yeah, and then for Rizzo and then Savannah, the plan is stay with the idol as like the number one thing. And then secondly, get out your target and MC. So they get like ticks across the board. And then for stations you want, I do think the voice can always be on you.

It's a scary little group. The game is a monster. The show is a horror movie. However, they really, I think, had the most capacity here to try flush an idol and still be fine on the bounce back. Like, so much would have to go wrong. Like, the idol would have to be played. And then you also have to be targeted when no one is saying your name and that's not the raid. I think that they really had potential here.

And I do think that with Savannah makes it very high. She certainly, like, puts the nail in that coffin, like the grim reaper would, actually. But I don't know. It was already breaking between Hina. To me, that is Rizzo's implicit immunity and the fear of that, cracking everything down. It's impossible to know it is Schroding is tribal council that we never get because Savannah does come.

But even if she doesn't, I think to me, the main instigating incident is that MC and Sophie have turned on each other and just becomes like a binary. And then in terms of like Joanne and say, yes, they get out of Hina, but clearly trust is tenuous anyway. And I don't think this big Hina group is really a problem for them. I mean, look at the cracks. So if they were going to get out any Hina, I would have really. rather have taken out Sophie and come back to like this better majority.

Like now I think they've cracked everything open from a position of power that it really took them a long time to get. I think they've cut into themselves. They fed into the minority's hands. They've taken out the target of the minority once. And they left some powerful people with some powerful trinkets, even though they are a extreme minority. And I don't think it's what they should have wanted to do.

I think that there was capacity here. But I mean, who should we, whose perspective should we be talking? There's a lot going on here. Well, I think it's interesting too. And I don't know how much you've talked about the 50 players. Yeah, we don't say that on this podcast. Okay. Well, like, I won't say.

The thing that I feel is that there's this notion of like we need to get Savannah out. We need to get Rizzo out. we need to get Sof out, whatever, right? But they are only three people. Three people with three advantages at this point. Fair, but you don't know that Sophie has her thing. And you also don't know that Savannah's got a thing that can last. If anything, Savannah has a thing that could be played right now would be my assumption.

Like, she just came over to our beach. And Rizzo has this idol. But Joanne, theoretically, has like the best. best relationship with Rizzo out of anybody on the beach that's not, you know, in the core of himself, Savannah and, uh, and so. And so the blowback of trying to vote out, um, Rizzo and failing, either him playing the idol or turns out, oh, Savannah had another necklace. She was going to, you know, pass out or whatever. You know what I mean? Um, you know, the blowback of that is more than just the vote falling back on you in that tribal, but it's also giving up leverage in

future tribals where you know you and um and sage have made this move you've ventured into the land of heena and you don't know how super tight these people are we know that stephen and mc were really tight on original heena uh we don't we don't really know where sophy or where christina's like really fall in all of that um but like that's because we haven't been shown it in the episodes but like they probably know less than us at this point like you know in terms of like where do they really fall or maybe they know a little bit more than us and maybe they are pretty tight and losing one of those people isn't that bad and then you have the even worse fear of Alex as a solo player is way more appealing as somebody that a heena tribe might want to bring

closer to the end than a duo who flipped together and so I don't know that I want to either take Rizzo out or burn Rizzo in the process of trying to take him out all in favor of an alliance where I am two people of seven like that's

that feels very dangerous to me and I'm happy to take an opportunity to weaken that side a little bit. Now it shouldn't have been MC that kind of sucks or maybe it should have been because you know MC played the idol clearly didn't trust them before was trying to build trust and maybe that was a good

sign. Maybe Sophie is a better person to bring forward if she's less trusted. But clearly, you know, there's, it's just so hard to know because we don't know the details of those relationships. But, but that's why I feel like I don't hate this at all. I'm not that scared of this trio because worst case scenario, are they really coming at me first? If they do somehow gain power, I don't think it's super likely. And if I need to end up pivoting and going to the end with them, then that's, you know, that's five people. I don't love the position of being on the bottom of a five-person thing, but it's better than being on the bottom of a seven-person. They just got out of there. They just got out of being on the bottom with them. Right, but they

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We're all out of the ordinary. I think had I heard any of that from them, I would disagree, but I would see it. But that's not even what they're saying. And I could see Joanne out next. Like, again, I actually find it really hard to see who will be out next, which is so refreshing in the season. But they're not going to be happy that MC is gone.

I know that MC is very important to Hina. That's the one thing we know. Steven's not going to be happy about that. they will rely on them but it's possible if I could come together against him like when I hear that plan from you my first criticism is

it's again playing scared take a freaking shot I'm sorry but like oh my god but isn't it playing scared to be going after the people in the minority instead of taking a shot at the people who have more numbers

that's so much fear for me again that is like playing from a place of fear when you actually have power and you actually have runway and you're not anyone's target and you're scared that like what if What if it bounces back on me?

What if Rizzo stays and then he's mad? Like Rizzo is just like he's a young man. Like he's actually just like a young guy. And they're so, and I think as well, like even if this were true, they're not saying it. Like if that were the case and they were like, this is a really good opportunity to take out M.C. She is like prime OG Hina. What I hear is Sophie's a challenge beast. Rizzo is a real threat

and MC didn't tell me she was going to play the idol which is like the least egregious thing that MC has done to them even though there was a lack of trust she's shown much more trust since then and she'd only known Jawan for a day I actually don't know why he was that upset about her playing the idol I think it was a bad move but I don't get why he was so offended by it so I'm not even hearing I'm playing both sides take out MC tell them it wasn't our fault

but really what happened was they actually would least seem to want MC from everything we heard and then got kind of pressure it into it because of the fear of the idol and the power of mostly Rizzo and Savannah. Like I'm moving for the confessional where it's like, we're all on the same page here. Rizzo. Like, sure, you think it's your move. We'll keep that in.

We're coming for you next time. And I'm like now pendulum strategying this. Like, but I'm not hearing that from them. And even if I did, I probably wouldn't agree with it. But like, that's, you're saying that. They're not saying that. Well, I mean, I'm, I'm, it's tough because it's Survivor and history is written by the winners and or production.

And so, you know, I think they prefer storylines of she played the idol and therefore people got mad. And then because people were mad, she had to tell them about Sophie's plan and then they were mad at Sophie because of that. As opposed to a more like cerebral like, all right. So theoretically there are two sides and I'm trying to make sure that I may. And actually I do think we heard a little bit of this from specifically Joanne in the start of the episode when he talked about like, hey, I want to make sure I'm still. good with Rizzo because I want him to think I'm still with him because he clearly

wants to play both sides to some degree and so I do feel like there's a good chance that's on his mind. Of course, I can't know for sure, but I feel like this is part of my frustration with Survivor in general is that I often have to try to like play detective or come up with theories on

why players are making moves that they're making when you know the show isn't super interested in portraying them as a fully fleshed out human that is making strategic decisions because somebody else has to be that person. And so I so yeah, I mean, I don't know if this was on their minds. I do think we heard a little bit about it. But but I do I do disagree that it's just straight up wrong. I think that, you know, when we when we think about like making bold

plays, I do think that like lodging on to a larger group that was already together and then just hoping, like, crossing your fingers and hoping it works out and taking out the remainder of the minority who you have a better relationship than the rest of them have with. I think that's maybe kind of playing scared. I think that's like that's a little, that's something that I think that if the show were portrayed a little differently, we would go, what in the world, Mitch, are you doing? You know what I mean? Like, what in the world? Why aren't you making the move when you have the opportunity? they clearly don't have any power left. They have one idol at best, at least from your perspective,

and nobody likes Savannah anymore. Everyone wants her out. So why are we so scared of these people when we have good relationships with them and can use them to make bigger moves and get closer to the end as a duo? I think there's merit to that, and I agree that the show isn't providing evidence

for that point of view, but I don't think that means it doesn't exist. I mean, it's funny because my favorite thing about, not favorite, but something I really like about covering Survivor is trying to find those leaps. It's like being a detective in a way that you probably, you know, don't get if it's told to you in live feeds. And like often it means you get it wrong, but it's like it's so satisfying when you get it right. And I feel like, yeah, for this for me, I don't think that staying with Heena is playing scared. Like I think it's playing sensible. I think it's one vote.

I understand it is, you know, three main characters to a lot more less main characters. So they seem scary to us, but they are not, they are not a big scarier group. But then when I look at it, First, I'm looking at Sage's confessional going to tribal council, and those are the reason she gives. No one ever says MC's that bigger threat. The second thing, like in terms of like her connection to Oji Hina, which is the reason that Rizzo wants her out. But I just don't think that Jawan and Sage are and should be aligned.

Well, I have to imagine the Rizzo made that argument to Jawan. You know what I mean? Okay. But then also, Jawan, he said he wants to play both sides, but his intention is to flush Rizzo's idol and what changes. Does he change to have a change of heart to be like, this is too easy? I don't think so. It changes because inner start imploding and he doesn't, you know,

like there's less agency there for him to do stuff possibly. And then Savannah comes and that puts pressure on it. But I will say as well, so like, again, it feels like he's being led away from it. I don't see it as his agency because what he wanted was to flush Rizzo's Idol at first, right? I mean, I think best case scenario is flushing Rizzo's idle while still working with Rizzo. That's very, that's a, that's a hard assignment. Because here's my question for you. What is the problem?

MC has gone to him and told him that he's going to be a vote. MC wants to work with him. She's whispering to him a tribal council. MC's going home. She will take anything. You have SAGE. You have three of what you think is six votes. What is the issue with putting three votes on Rizzo?

They're voting for either Sophie or MC. So you're either winning three to one. And if he plays the idol, whoever they vote for goes home, it's almost definitely not you like it would be so scared and then if they all vote emcee like you really have to think that they come over like Sophie comes over at that point

of votes up Rizzo and we know they just win because Savannah didn't vote but like in this 3-3 you would think that everyone would be like well Rizzo didn't play the idol on a three three and if it's a good flush opportunity when your name's not being said

and the fear is yes then you've flushed Rizzo's idol you voted for him and that's so scary we can't keep getting scared of Rizzo. Well, again, it's less about the fear of that and more so. And again, it's like, it's again, it's again, it's not like, uh, like, oh, well, we won't

be able to work with Rizzo moving forward. It's, it's even more so the idea of even just voting with Rizzo, regardless of the idol, because if you do take Rizzo out, all that's left is Savannah and Sauf on that side. And does Alex have sway? Are they going to choose Alex over you? Will Alex want to protect Sauf? is Savannah still the target?

What happens if she wins immunity? You know already including. You say that, but like how can they know that and how can they be sure that like because that's the promise of every person who's at the bottom of an alliance is like, oh, don't worry, there's cracks. You'll get, you'll make your way in.

The cracks are forming like now. Like the other non-Rizzo plan is the fact that it ends up being MC versus Soviet out and that was so easy. Like it happened so quickly. I see what you're saying. But I think my point is that even like just, assume the world where Ahina just sticks together because it makes sense for them to do so.

Why would they seed ground there? You've given up the opportunity to be able to fight back. You now have, you know, Sof, Savannah, yourself, and Sage are four votes to five, you know, if the other side sticks together. Whereas if you vote with Rizzo, you can go with them for a five or you can swap back over for a six feet three and you theoretically have the option to go either way with a good excuse for why you had to vote MC and or Sophie because of the idol. And I don't think that's terrible. And I think that when it comes to like Sophie versus MC, I'm still not that concerned. MC gave some info to Joanne, which was like a good show of faith, but also didn't trust

them very much in the previous round. And they clearly don't have a great relationship with her. And she has a very good relationship with some of the other people on Hina. So her leaving again is potentially a good thing for you if you want to get deeper embedded into Lahina itself. And then also it felt to me like Sage might have had a better relationship with Sophie considering she goes to Sophie to talk to her about the whole thing. So that may have had some influence on that as well. But yeah, I mean, I think that's that's sort of the main perspective that I have. Again, not that I necessarily agree with it. But I do very

much think that it's a viable line of reasoning to think, you know, if I'm looking at these relationships in a way that seems very realistic, I'm definitely concerned about being two out of seven. And I can really start to hone in on these numbers if now all of a sudden I'm either two and six or two and five, depending on which way the wind blows in the following round. but in this world where you get MC in the last minute scramble or at last minute at camp who is completely beholden to you and has nothing else at this point.

You have three votes of six. But why bother, I guess, is the question. Why bother saving MC in that spot? Potentially, you know, taking a connection that you have with Rizzo and Savannah because trying to play the middle is a tenuous spot, taking that connection being like, I know you preferred MC,

but I'm actually going to go behind your back and take out Sophie instead. No, take out Rizzo. Did it really even matter? Or again, take out Rizzo, well, then that takes out the entire idea of playing both sides. But because your concern is

you don't want to go back to a fully formed Tina, but in this world, we know that Sophie is voting for M.C. The crack has formed. You trick Sophie into voting M.C. Well, Sophie is voting M.C. So from what we see, it's like, Rizzo and Savannah will vote,

probably Sophie or M.C. We think it's going to be MC. So I'm sure Sophie had to ask Rizzo and, sage like are you doing this and they would have had to be like yes we're doing that yeah but okay so fine so they're all voting MC but if you're in Jawan's shoes and you get three votes onto Rizzo Rizzo so likely goes like even Sophie isn't going to what a two to rock draw for Rizzo and to keep him in with the idol so either the idol works and

MC goes home anyway which we were saying there's merit too but the idol's also gone and Hina have cracked a little bit because Sophie did that. Or what I think is better because I think Rizzo is a very capable player, even though he's in a minority. And again, I'm trying not to be really like shifted around by the edit here. But if Rizzo goes with the idol, you've taken out the idol and Sophie's voted to get it against M.C.

So you're not coming back to this like big homogenous Hina group because not only could cracks form, they did form and they voted. So it's not going to be this. Brooke where Sophie and M.C. are on the same page. So you get a lot out of that. You take out an idol. At worst, you take out MC or Rizzo both threats in their own right. And you've definitely had a Hina crack. Like so much is gained compared to, and if you're playing both sides, kind of like everyone loses except you, right? Like the idol's gone and M.C. might be gone

and Hina's crack, which is great. But if you're like now, I think for playing both sides, Uli lost nothing, they didn't lose the idol. They got out the target they wanted. Hina is cracked and emcee is gone and like this was a bad day for heena but i think you've invented like if you're playing both sides it's a delicate balance but i think you've invested too much into the destruction of that side and uly have just gotten away with murder where i think you could you could kind of like have a lot of cake and eat a lot of cake with you kind of doing both because i like i like that in theory um but uh but i do worry that uh the reason i tried to to hone in on the idea that you do have to trick Sophie into voting MC.

And because Sophie will not vote MC if she knows that you are not voting MC, if you're, if you're Sage and Joanne, which means you have to pretend to Sophie that you're voting MC. And by doing that, you are pretty transparently. Yeah. You're pretty transparently trying to for, all Sophie needs to do is say, oh my God, MC, I'm so sorry. They told me all the votes were on you.

I didn't think there was an option. They tricked me into doing this to split us apart, split us apart and then voted with you anyway. And now all of a sudden, you look like the schemer that you are, which is not the best thing, I think. But that's also what happened.

Like that's not, like, MC and Sophie, like, legitimately broke. Right. I mean, I think the stronger point is exposing the fact that MC told Joanne about the thing. I don't think that the vote needed to be something there either but it's again it's the kind of thing

where it's like okay here's a crack but how valid is this how like real is it we literally just watched a season where two people pretended to not be on the same page for a long time in order to gain advantage and this is potentially one of those spots where that could have been happening

you have to worry about that you have to worry about not only that but even if it is real you have to worry about once they get back to the beach with everyone else you know Stephen is going to come in And then Christina's going to come in and be like, guys, I know you had a little bit of a difference there on that beach, but we have to stay four strong. We can't give up this advantage.

And now all of a sudden, a crack that seemed very valid is now looking like it's not. Because you've given them the option to form back together, whereas if you make sure that you are the one with your finger on the lever of power, you don't give them as much of an option there. So again, I do hear you. I'm very much arguing in favor of not taking out Rizzo. I do think there's value in not only taking out Rizzo, but even, I think, better, like, flushing his idol.

I just, I do think that there's a lot of value also in making sure that you are not going back to a spot where you just don't have as much leverage as you would like. And, you know, I really like the idea right now. If you can manage it of Jawan and Sage going back to the merged beach, and saying, hey, it's us two and Alex. And then additionally, we have Stephen and Christina, and then we'll continue to use Sophie as a number as long as we can. Maybe they can pull Sophie, but even if they do, we still have the numbers over them.

You know, what are they going to do? You know, it's like, and then if they do manage to overpower us, we are still the ones with the better relationships with them. And so hopefully the least likely to take shots and be able to maybe make a run down. in that path as well. So, you know, I just think there are, there are certainly some viable paths there.

Yeah, I mean, I still disagree with it. I wish I'd heard it from them. I felt like they go. I wish I heard all kinds of stuff like this on the show. You give them a lot of grace. I feel like they were kind of pressured into this position by everyone being scared of the idol. We can talk about Sophie's plan into this crack on Hina

and into the fact that Brazil was just like, hey, now I'm in charge. And they were like, okay. And I was like, What is wrong with you? But I think, I wonder what it will be like for them to come back to this group now. Something that's interesting in the split tribal council is, it's funny because this was a unanimous vote. However, there are people who will be very upset about it, and that's good.

You know, I think a lot of the fire of this episode was that they started because it was the first non-unanimous vote of the season. We finally had people being like, oh, my God, I voted wrong. I'm so sorry. And I was like, great. You know, we've actually had fallout because it's not unanimous. And I do wonder about going back to Stephen, who was really tight with MC. And being like, and trying to. Sophie's with you too.

She voted with you too. Yeah. You are. flipped the other side. Like it doesn't make sense to that. They are dependent on them. Not the best way for alliances to thrive. Alliance says you've just got into.

But sure, it's like they need them. But yeah, it's just, it's an interesting spot because it's kind of like three he is now. Like I see Alex Rossina and Steven. And Sophie kind of by herself, then there's like, allie three. which is Soph Rosso-Savana and all of their trinkets and then kind of Sajun-Jewan. It's a really interesting spot.

Like I don't, I still see Sajun-J-J-J-Wan as wanting to be Heena, but I think it'll be a hard thing to explain because it'll be like, what happened? And then you'd have to be like, oh, Sophie and M-C turned on each other, which I think is true. I think that is kind of what happened. And Sophie will back that story up. But then they'll be like, well, then why did you keep Sophie,

who everyone's fine with going? And then they'll have to be like, we wanted an undercutina. Like that, you know what I always? Well, no, I think they'll say, yeah, there were two guaranteed votes, Savannah and Rizzo on MC. And, you know, Rizzo was saying he was going to play his idol. And we felt like we didn't really have a choice.

And Sophie's going to be like, yeah, I agree. You're going to be telling the story with Sophie. And they can try to be like secret, like, bring it to the side. But oh, bro, why did you have to go with Sophie? It was just really tough. It was tough to make, like, get the votes there to make sure it would be Sophie and not the other way around. It was like a three to three, because Sophie, if Sophie is.

but the thing for me is that I think that's true. Like, I think that story they're telling them where they're like, our hands were tied and there's nothing we could do and we actually didn't want MC to go. Well, yeah, and that's true. And that's why I said it's annoying that Savannah showed up because it does impact the calculus and it does make that a very potentially true thing that might have happened.

Where it really was just the Savannah showed up and they felt like they didn't have a choice. I think that is what happened. I think it's like your tribe split up, maybe get your Hina members in line. they were coming for each other there were votes on MC that's what Rizzo was for that we had no choice and like I think my criticism

with Joanne is and Sage is like I think that is what happened like I think that I wish there was this diabolical like yes we wanted MC to go she was so important to Hina and now like we've taken her out

but we can still get back I wish I was hearing that rather than them going back and being like what happened and then being like Rizzo's so scary man I genuinely think that's true like if it was a story

I just don't see a world I don't see a world where even if that's true, they're given that edit. You know what I mean? Yeah, but I also, I just, I have to go on intention. And Joanne wanted to flesh that idol. I'm sure part of him did, you know? I'm sure that's the thing they showed.

You know, I, like, I hear you. And at the end of the day, we can only talk about what we were shown. But, uh, or no, we can't only talk about what we were shown. We only know what we've, we've been shown. Um, but, uh, but yeah, I just, you know, the thing that really got me all season was that I was really dogging on Jawan all season long

for seemingly being so oblivious to the fact that he was on the bottom of of Oolie. And then out of nowhere, he's like yes, screw them. Well. And it's like how, you know, like how long had that really been happening?

He didn't say yes, screw them. Sage said, well he was fully willing to turn on them and then take them all out one by one. Whereas previously he seemed like he was undyingly loyal to them. I mean, Shannon voted for him and he was still like, I don't know that we're taking out Shannon. Well, that's the thing. It's like, I don't know how true that was

or how much that was misdirection because he was willing to vote Shannon and then was not only willing to vote Shannon, but then going back to the previous thing. And then lying to all of them tricking them and then voting them out was like this is not in line at all with, I think, how they were portraying Joanne previous to this episode.

The edit has broken you and I understand. And it's also a, like the agenda of this edit is I've also talked to so many Survivor players and I know the way that the show is edited. Believe me, like you know, you do the Big Brother Deep Dives. Like the Survivor Deep Dives often are like

you know, this was like this whole thing was different. I'm like, well that was weeks of my life. I get it. But like I and it would be so irritating to be Joanne who was like, obviously it was a great boat for me. I'm playing both sides and I think he is the biggest threat because I don't know that Savannah and Rizzle have the biggest edit.

Like I don't have that information on the island. In saying that I do try to be, and that's why I try to be gracious in saying that I just don't think that's why he did it. Like I don't, like, and I think as well, it's like, it's so good for Rizzo and Savannah. And it just plays, like, right into their hands. Like, I think that, you know, it's the same way, like, and I love what Rizzo said about, like, well, we're going to take out MC over Sophie because you don't split the majority on their terms. We've said that for years.

Like, if they want Sophie out, if they're fine with that being the person they split from the majority, like, we're not going to do that. And Savannah and Rizzo both say that really well. And Jo-Wan, I think, is like, again, taking out MC is like exactly what this group do and make them, like, if Rizzo gets everything he wants, is that a victory? I mean, sometimes you, like,

they're always going to be winners and losers, right? You can't take out one side without benefiting the other side. And I do agree, I think that probably in his ideal world, it was Sophia and not MC. But when you're in a spot where it's like, you know, I'd rather take this partial win over here than a partial win over here because, you know, it's hard to get exactly what I want out of every situation. And I also want to make sure, like, I'm not making the case that this is definitely what

Joanne and Sage were thinking. I just think it's a very possible reason of what they were thinking. And I don't think that if it was true, we would see it in the edit. So, you know, I'm just, I'm trying to make sure that it's vocalized. Yeah, I see it. I don't think that's why they did it. And if it is, I get it more, but I still disagree. But I'm trying to pull myself back from the people I'm fearful of in the edit for them.

That's the main thing. Here's the, the edit is the easiest way to talk about strategy on Survivor because the edit will tell you who wins and loses. And I know right now that I'm very much arguing against what the edit is telling me. And I know that ultimately, like, what I'm arguing is, is almost definitely wrong in terms of, like, who is going to win the battle, right? But, like, you know, that's almost why I'm arguing. I want to make sure that, like, because knowing that the person who's going to lose the battle is less likely to have their story actually represented. I think I love it. It goes against the grain.

I still disagree, but I love looking at it from that perspective. Yeah, I mean, it would be very frustrating to be Juan To be like, this is what I was trying to do And he was this was one podcast He's like, Karen gets it, but It's literally, it's happened to me on Survivor podcast It's happened to be on deep dives, you know? And I'm like, but then I think there is also

The distinct possibility that, you know, that is not what happened with Juan, but I think it's It's good to give grace, yeah, but I think as well, yeah, again, I'm not saying it is what happened. I'm just saying, I think it's, it makes sense to me that that could have happened. even if that is what joan was thinking i prefer he took out riszo's idol um possibly riso if not mc and if rizzo goes and mc and sophy have turned on each other and the game is just a little bit more

wide open um especially just because it feels like they're just like you know they're like putty in rizzo's hands take a shot um something that we agree on though let's talk about that you didn't like sophie's plan that's great let's agree on that because everyone else seemed to liked this a lot. That's wild to me because this... No, at all has liked it. It seems so brazenly a bad idea. She proposed herself as the decoy vote and then planned for a rogue solo tiebreak, just in case,

break emergency class, if Rizzo plays the idol, I'll vote for Joanne. but what did she expect to happen on the re-vote if she was the deploy? I agree, thank you. The whole time I was thinking this, this is, yeah, okay, great, thank you. Even if MC had been on board with her, she still has to get Rizzo's vote with her. And she's proposing that he vote her. I've done a lot of Tarrant style digging into this, right? Because obviously at this point when Savannah's not there and there's like no fear of a Savannah vote,

what the thought is, is that Rizzo is going to vote for Sophie. Like, I think taking one vote of five was wild. very altruistic from Sophie from saying that Hina are way too conservative this was not conservative, right? That's a very selfless thing that she did and then she's going to throw a vote on Joanne and then it's going to get to a re-vote

where ostensibly, Rizzo will vote again for Sophie and now MC will vote hopefully for Jaun. We don't even have that, but we'll get to that. Where is Sage voting? So then I did some Tarrant style digging. okay so does she think she's voting with her and MC said on Twitter

that Sage and Sophie had a relationship so when I watched again this morning I really try to figure it out because the plan is a lot better if it's a lot better but it's not perfect but it's a lot better

if Sage is going to vote with her on the revote firstly she's misjudging MC but that was beyond the game we can talk about that secondly there are still pitfalls like what if Juan realizes Sophie could do that

and then just throws his own vote which he definitely could do as well Because I had the same thought, which was like, clearly Sage and Sophie have a relationship. So what if she thinks that Sage will vote with her? But the problem that I had with that is if she felt that confident in Sage's vote, why did she only tell MC and not say? He might have told MC. Now, again, I mean, she might have told Sage because we don't see everything. That's true.

That's true. Yeah. And the way that Sage responds, like Sage tells Sophie what MC has done. So I thought maybe. And I thought, really, is Sage more loyal to Sophie? We've never seen this relationship over Ju-Wan. But I wanted that it could be true. MCS said they have a relationship.

That is not what the episode portrays. We see Sage saying Sophie should go to Rizzo, so that's with a grain of salt. But even in confessional, Sophie's, she's willing to lose Sophie, who's a physical threat. And she's really been with Jawan the whole time. She's certainly not like, should we just all turn it on Juan. So if it comes between Yawan and Sophie, it seems so unlikely. you were going to quiz us on like what were the tribe configurations have sophy and sage been on a tribe together for very long time i don't remember they were on that second that second

but i just i just can't imagine that she's choosing sophy over juan if if that connection is very important because that makes the plan better obviously um if she can rely on say i have to imagine that something was there because you know it's again it's a plan that just makes no sense on its face, which again just makes me think there must there must be something that we're missing that makes this plan makes some amount of sense. Maybe she thought that Rizzo would be like, I'm working with Jawan,

now Jawan's voted for Rizzo and it's like screw you. That was my first thought. My first thought was like maybe Rizzo will feel betrayed and then he'll vote Jawan out. But Rizzo would never. Yeah. Yeah, that's way. That's riding way too much on a complete gamble. I feel like there's

no way you'd go that way. The thing for me is like even if all of this is true, Like, even if Sage is way more on Sophie's Camden Gowan, which I genuinely, after watching the episode again. Or maybe she just thought Sage was. Okay, fine. So if she's misreading it, that's bad. Right.

But even if she's right, which I really don't think so on re-watching the episode, but we don't know anything. You really made me doubt the whole point of podcasting about Survivor. That's my whole thing with Survivor. I apologize. No, this is my job, Jared. But I think, then Juwan can always throw his own vote. Like, you think that you, like, Juwan's not thinking the same.

Like, again, he didn't seem to be doing it. doing that. But we never got to the point where he was like, what if Sophie just throws one vote on me? Like, you take, like, Rizzo has one vote on Sophie. She's agreed to that. So then if Yuan throws a vote, it's now 2-2-1, it's still a split. And if Rizzo plays the idol, it's a 2-1 and you're not even going to a re-von. The smarter thing was if she, like the point of telling MC is not so that M-C has a heads-up of the re-vote. It's to get MC to vote with you. Well, that could be tricky because then if Jawan throws a vote, now there are no more votes on Rizzo.

Like there's one vote. Like now it's like a two, two, one where it's Jawan and, um, Sophie and there's like one stage vote. Um, and that would be unfortunate. I mean, like, again, like I, like, the way I look at this tribal council, like, because we've really gone to the weeds. The way I look at the tribal council was I felt like, Dewan and Sage had the power to do something.

And I felt like Sophie could, mainly because she put, she's been a threat, she put a hand up for it. She just needed to survive. Like, Juwan and Sage could actually, I think, achieve things. And I don't think that they got what all they could achieve. whereas I feel like Sophie, she does end up surviving and credit to her afterwards for going back and like, I think it was also like

circumstantial and convenient for Rizzo and Savannah to work with Sophie over M.C. But I think she has good arguments on it. But I would be going to Rizzo from the beginning. Like hopefully with MC and we can talk about it, but like, because MC obviously chooses to want. But like, I would be like, I want to work with you. I don't want to, I don't want to be on the bounce back

of what you would think would be Rizzo playing an idol. And I certainly would be putting my hand up to be the person on the bounceback. Also like because the more I think about this, like even if she does think Sage is with her because of how re-votes work

it's still she's the only one not voting, right? No. Or am I reading revotes wrong? No, Joanne wouldn't vote because it would be Rizzo's a one-one vote. Right, right. Rizzo's still votes. Rizzo's voting

ostensibly for Sophie. then Sage, then MC is voting, you would think for Joanne. And Sage is a swing vote. So it's, yeah, three people voting. She's hoping that Sage votes with. Yeah. And obviously it doesn't work when like Savannah comes anyway. But yeah, I thought that in a five-person tribal council where the target has an idol and someone,

and you can split, but then you can be counter split on, I just thought, this was brave. This was very charitable, Sophie. but like I don't know and I think maybe it was maybe it was a misread of Sage maybe I just can't imagine that Sage then what do I know if say is closer to the Sophie I met to the last night

then she used to Juwant why am I here? What are I doing Tara? What am I doing with my life? I'm so glad I'm having kids do I'm getting out of the game I mean that honestly that's again that's part of my and I think it's gotten worse I think it's gotten worse in the new era you know like there was that whole thing where like Like, didn't they show MCs telling Savannah that Sage ratted about Rizzo's idol?

But then the reality was that she had actually said it was Shannon and not Sage, but they showed it as Sage. Yeah, then they do that on Australian Survivor all the time. Do you have any room on the Big Brother team? Listen. I'm looking to switch coach. Because if they do a deep dive with Sage one day and she's like, yeah, I would have voted out to Juan over Sophie. I swear to God. There are a whole power.

that they hide from us sometimes on Survivor. What am I doing with my life? Why are we even doing those podcasts? We're talking for an hour. We don't even know who. You like playing detective. We're juggling all these realities. I like playing detective when I'm right.

I don't like, I like playing detective when you have to somehow figure out that Sage might be closer to Sophie than freaking Joanne. That's like a risk. I think I think it's more likely that Sophie believes Paige was closer to her than Juwan. Yeah. Sophie was wrong.

Because, again, I went through looking for clues, like a detective. And Sage is, like, openly talking about getting rid of Sophie. She can't be that important to her if it was, like, such a legitimate. She seems to want Sophie out more than anyone. Not Rizzo. But you know what I mean? Even more than MC. So I like to believe that Sage would have chosen to one,

the relationship we've known from the beginning of the game, rather than Sophie, who we've never seen them speak until briefly in this episode. My best guess would be Sage's hierarchy was like Jawan number one, stage number two, or sorry, Sophie number two, MC number three. And was annoyed with Sophie when she found out that Sophie was planning to do the Jawan vote and still talks to her about it. But then that also like, you know, maybe that's when she's talking about taking out Sophie and she means it. but then she also is pushing Joanne like, hey, I actually do prefer Sophie anyway to stay

over MC and Joanne's like, ah, that's fine with me. I don't have a super big preference anyway. Sophie did annoy me with the vote thing, but you know, MC also, whatever. And maybe that's the thing too is that like from Juana, maybe Juana and Sage did disagree on which of the two

should leave. And Juwan was like, let's gather up MC's vote and take out, you know, Sophie or make a different play. And Sage was like, no, I'd rather take out MC over Sophie or whatever the case is, right? Like, there's so many different possibilities. And all of that also leads to, like, what was MC saying at tribal? Why did they say that was such a wild tribal?

You know? In the ex-interview, she was saying how, like, she was asking to do the split. Not the exact split that I'm proposing, where it's like, how we just vote for Rizzo? And, like, that's what I would be saying, which is, like, why do we just work for Rizzo? And if he doesn't, like, if he does play his idol, I will go home. Like, I'm likely going home anyway, right? So, like, I'll take the barrier. And if he doesn't play it, like, you know, either way you get the idol out, which is great.

Or Rizzo goes with an idol. I'm like, I think, again, they have a lot to gain from that plan. I think she was saying it was like she wants like a 2-2-2, but I don't know if that really works because it requires Sophie to vote for Rizzo because you assume that Savannah and Rizzo are on MC. So if you're going to, like, it needs to be the 3-3 or a 2-2-2 that doesn't work. I think the 3-3 works. We know Savannah doesn't vote But yeah

The thing too though there is like And we haven't talked about it a ton But like we know what Savannah's thing was We're assuming that they're assuming she has a vote But I think you also have to assume That they're worried that she has an extra vote In this trap You know what I'm gonna say something

As a chronic overthinker That Goes against every fiber of my being You know like all of these things could be true But like at a point Like you know She could have an ectosic All of these things

things, yes, could be true, but sometimes they're going to take the shot. Like, you know what I mean? Like, yes, like, it is scary that she just rocked up with an advantage and her advantage was just being there and that does seem a little dicey. But, like, also, I don't know, it's like you'll be rooted in fear, like a streetlight, you know, I don't know. I think at a point, like, especially for MC, like, MC at that point is nothing to lose. That's why she's like, they should do it. And I think St. Jean-Juan have very little to lose.

That's why I think that they should kind of go for broke there. like I said I think they have something to gain if you're looking at it like that I can't go back to that chart I can't but like I'm like you want to think it's a good point but yeah I just

yeah so that I mean that was the that was the live travel of it all yeah Sophie's plan yeah I have to assume was a misread on Sage and then was a misread on MC actually

yeah I mean bottom line is it was even more crucially a misread on MC which again is like if she did approach Sophie or Sage with it or thought Sage had would be on board with it you could see why the show didn't even feel it was necessary to show that part because the second MC is not on board it's completely dead in the water but the misread on MC was beyond the game like I don't know if you saw but the ex-interviews but MC said she didn't want to black people on the jury

first up in at least one of the seasons she saw for Joanne yeah and she was so that's a really tough thing for Sophie to again though it wouldn't have even been Joanne yeah she didn't want to risk that she wasn't aboard with the re-vote and Sage theoretically wasn't involved with the re-

I know but she I guess she's telling yeah like Joanne was in no risk of going over at that point as far as maybe she did think that Sage would vote Joanne maybe maybe people think that Sage and Joanne are not locked in you know well to be fair she's choosing Joanne over Sophie for reasons that it'd be on the game

that Sophie can't reasonably read and in doing that is going all in on Juan like she's not thinking like hey Sophie oh you're going to throw a gun on Joanne I don't want Juan to go home I'm just I'm not going to vote for him on the remote he'll be fine she's thinking I choose Juan and like in a world where she chooses Jawan he is right to go to him and give him the heads up hey you're getting a vote

but I'm with you she gives it all to Jawan she gives him that trust she's fully investing in Juan for some reasons that'll be on the game The unfortunate thing is she, I really feel for MC, she's carrying that burden of being like, I don't want, you know, two black people to start the jury. Black people go home on the split tribal to an insane degree. It's a statistical anomaly or I can't, it's not an anomaly. Like, it's absurd the stats on it in a way that I can't explain because it's such a random point of the game.

You know what I mean? It's not like the beginning of the game when they used to be like outliers. and like would equal like. And like demographics, you know, we see like, all the women go, you know what I mean? Like, this is such a random point of the game. But the staff speak for themselves. I can understand how you don't want to be part of sending Joanne to be part of that graphic that we see every single season of the people who go home at the split tribal.

So she's having to shoulder that in a way that, you know, I would have the privilege of not having to do. So I really feel for her because then she does invest it all into Joanne, which if she's choosing Joanne, she should do. However, Joanne isn't meeting her in that trust. You know, Jouan is immediately turning on her. So she's given it all to Jowan and he's not in that place with her. Yeah, we don't know if it was immediate necessarily because it did seem like, it didn't seem like he was immediate like, okay, I'm turning around and voting you at

MC as much as it was. Once Savannah shows up, potentially that's when things might have changed or maybe it was Sophie first, you know. Again, we don't know the times when things happen, which kills me. but we see it as he does go back well we yeah so we see it as MC goes to

Jawan yeah and Juan tells Sage yeah and Sage tells Sophie yeah and Sage tells Sophie and then MC is given Juan so much and he doesn't choose her

and she has given up everything for him in a way that is beyond the game by fully investing in him But you can't criticize that, again, because it's just something that's so outside of the game. So, yeah, you would think at that point that he would be like, this is a very important connection. He just doesn't. Well, I mean, like, did he, did he know that is a question, I guess? Like, did he knows that she came to him and gave him the vote?

Right. They gave him that information. That's a lot of investment over an ally that she, we even know that she've been closer from the beginning. What is some of the only information on Hina that we had was that she went. to Sophie from the very beginning and tried to work with Sophie. And she chose Juan over Sophie. And that wasn't met.

I think that's fair. I think that like if I'm putting myself in a position where, you know, somebody very blatantly did not trust me in the previous round and I made it clear that I was like, whoa, why didn't you trust me? And then comes to me with like a little bit of information that theoretically doesn't actually

change anything, right? Like knowing that Sophie was going to put a vote on, me doesn't change the plan from MC's point of view. They're still planning to go Rizzo at that point. It just is like a little token of faith, right? A little bit of like, here, let me give you a little something. It's not necessarily sacrificing something big in this spot.

But here, let me give you something that like will make you feel like you can trust me. I'm not necessarily taking that to the bank. I'm not going to say like this is my new closest ally she's definitely chosen me over the person that she said that about um you know i've seen it just way too many times that like uh you know people use their own allies information as currency to win favor but then we'll still be more loyal to that ally at the end of the day you know what i mean like it's it wouldn't make me feel like oh perfect this person that i'm right now starting to build a relationship with i can take it you know take it home with me. I would still

probably not want to vote them out next but I also wouldn't be like well, I can't vote them because they gave me that information. Yeah, I see it as a big investment. I mean, I guess from Juwan's perspective, it's like, thank you for letting me know I wasn't going to go home like Sage and Rizzo wouldn't have voted for me.

But I think she's like, I'll vote with you. Like, I'm choosing you. Like, I see that as another of an investment that you would think would create some. But you might also think she's only telling me because she knows it's not going to work. You know? That is true. Like, hey, just letting you know, I'm going to be the third vote of three. Exactly.

Yeah, but, like, also, it may never even come to that. You know what I mean? Like, I think there is investment in betraying an ally, but giving that information to him. Certainly. It's way more than nothing. And I would really like it if that happened. Like, it's just not, I wouldn't, like, take it as, like, a signed contract.

For me, the gain and loyalty of doing something like that is, like, way better than the loss of loyalty of the fact that she, like, played an idol. Like, it was a bad move to play an idol. I just don't know that they were that offended by it. But for me, that is the thing because then, it's more that then Sophie turns on MC and creates this binary and then they don't stick with MC, even though she's invested so much into Ju-Wan. And I think that would have happened regardless.

But the craziest thing for me is that there's two crazy things, actually. It becomes like this clear Sophie-MC binary. You have to pick aside. They make that so evident to Rizzo. Like, if you're going to criticize Ju-Wan on anything, edit aside, the fact that he's the tribal council, like, I'm definitely not voting for you, Rizzo. It's like, you've made him so comfortable. At that point, just vote for him. Like, if you're not

voting for him, at least make him a little scared, he might just play it. Like, you might just be, like, they made him so comfortable. It was so clearly this binary. Yeah. I mean, tribal, tribal is always just such theater, though, you know? Like, the whole time, like, but that wasn't theater. He's like, I'm definitely not voting. And he wasn't. Right. But in some ways, if somebody was like,

oh, I might vote for you, Rizzo. I'd be like, okay, now you're trying to do something here. You know what I mean? Whereas if you, if you acted like you were never going to, that's going to make me more nervous, personally. I think that the atmosphere of the fact that Rizzo was getting no votes seemed apparent to everyone. And I don't know how they got to that point where Rizzo just knew he was just like so home free to not play title. And if that's the case, and it is what played out. And it did seem like, you can read double bloat.

But again, Taryn, like everything can be a double bluff. At a point you have to make a call. But I'm saying don't overthink so much. But I also think if you're MC and Sophie, why did you? vote. I think Sophie literally said Dempsey, like they're going to decide. Yeah, you have actually a trinket for that. I hope that they brought it to the challenge, but you can play a shot in the dark. Because you know your votes, that there, well, three or four people are choosing who goes home between you. Your votes don't matter. You're going to at least play a shot in the dark. And

you could go to them and be like, I'm playing my shot in the dark because my vote doesn't matter. Clearly, like, the only reason you wouldn't do that is because you wouldn't want Rizzo to know that he's so badly doesn't need to play inside of it. But we're way past that. So the point, but they know that and that's the clear environment go to them and say I'm playing my shot on the dark because it doesn't matter now maybe they don't want to vote for you like they of course like on a zero zero re-vote

everyone's voted for MC she plays a shot on the dark can just vote for Sophie but like maybe they don't want to piss someone off who's then maybe it just scares people off a little bit I just don't know why they voted what was the point what these people voting those votes

my assumption would be that MC was hoping that her ploy worked right? She said she was pitching like a 2-2-2 or something or like some kind of spot where her vote was necessary and she was hoping that the live tribal actually worked and Sophie knew it would just be MC and knew she didn't need to play. She must have known that that wasn't working because the 2-2, oh yeah, I guess who does she think of the 2-Rizbo votes?

Like she's not working. I don't know what she thinks the 2-2 is because that wouldn't require. I didn't listen to the emce. I mean, no, even in listening to it, I was like, I don't understand. Because then that it requires Sophie to vote for Rizzo. I imagine that, like, in the heat of the moment, she was just like, I hope it worked.

I hope at least two of them flipped and my vote might be necessary. And I'd rather take the risk that some of them flipped than the one in six or whatever. And then if it fails and I didn't vote and I needed my vote in this spot, I would hate myself or whatever. It's usually, I think, the kind of thought process they have. But what if, okay, then what about Sophie? Sophie who's literally like their choosing between me and you

Well I think she knew it was MC at that point Or at least you know read it correctly That it was MC at that point That is true That is true He didn't go home I always think if you're like one of two options Like you're not gonna

Like especially because sort of the last For like seven right This is so on Like I mean she has been a big threat She might need it in the future Any like I We have gone through every possible fear Any of these people could have

Right People are way too conservative with their shot in the dark, in my opinion. I agree. It's like if you're even remotely in the conversation, you don't need your vote, you should play. Trying to conserve your shot in the dark to me is crazy because it's like a minor advantage and the odds of it being

important. Like, it might be important down the line but your vote's more important, so you can't use it. And honestly, the threat of it is worse, I think. Because nobody's not going to vote for you because you have a shot in the dark versus not. But they will be extra careful to not tell, like, let you know that they're voting for you

in order to trick you into not playing it. And so if you don't have a shot in the dark, I think that, and please don't take this as like a locked in. I don't want a survivor play in the future being like, I played my shot in the dark so I could get rid of it because Terran said it was a good idea. But like,

I think there's a world where not having a shot in the dark is better because then if you pick up like an idol, they, that nobody knows about. They're less fearful about blindsiding you because they're like, oh this person doesn't even have a shot in the dark we don't need to care as much about blindsiding them

because in the shot in the dark meta strategy you have to fully blindsat everyone you have to trick them every single time and that fear might dissipate a little bit if they're like oh oh they already played their shot in the dark you don't need to be as careful yeah I there was a lot here that I didn't disagree with

I think I mean that I didn't agree with I disagree with a lot for Sophie we you didn't like her plan. Like, what do you think she should be coming in to do from the beginning in the strive? I mean, I think, I think, you know, obviously pitching the Rizzo plan,

but I think that you need to do your best to pitch to Rizzo. Don't vote for me. Yeah. Like, I think that's the ideal. I think that, like, anything you can do to get Rizzo to not vote for you,

certainly don't volunteer it. And if you can go to Rizzo and be like, you know, whatever, whatever the argument is, Like, hey, I am, I'm a big threat in this game. And, like, I mean, as we saw, Rizzo actually did want to take out M.C. over Sophie. So she actually had a very good argument.

And if she had made an attempt with Rizzo, maybe she could have convinced him to go M.C. over her. And now of a sudden, she can very safely put votes on Rizzo, hope that Rizzo leaves. And if not, boom, it's just M.C. And it's not even a problem. I think what Noodle said and again like anything can be scary is like then you do what Christina did to Sophie a couple of weeks ago

which is like now you've made someone else a decoy now you've made them angry it's kind of like damned if you do damned if you don't but okay you made them angry it's like whatever like at least you're not the decoy anymore you know I think there are ways that people have put their hand up to be the decoy

that have worked in other times that I've been like okay this is innovative it's selfless but it all it comes down to, like, what's the actual risk that you will go home for this? I say, as I talk about risk-taking behavior, but for me, it was a little bit too risky. Like, you know for a fat cruzo has an idol. He definitely could play it. You have a backup plan, but the backup plan to us doesn't seem to work.

And Juan could throw a vote. And it seems for Sophie that she was not anyone's priority on this tribe. Like, for everyone else, like, everyone else was fine. Even though she didn't go home, everyone was fine to lose her. So for them, a world in which even she throws a vote, but then she goes home anyway because on the tie with Yuan, she goes home. Like, that's a split that actually works for everyone else in a way that's really comfortable. Like, let's like all vote for Rizzo, flush is idle.

So if people go home, which we know MC is fine with, we know Jawan is good with, and even Sage seems to prefer when it comes to, I assume, Jawan. So that was like comfortable for everyone else. Like she just became such an easy scapegoat. Her chances of going home, I think, were high. too high to be doing this. I would have gone to Rizzo.

I would have outright gone to Rizzo, I think. The fact that she called it a perfect plan to me implies heavily that in her mind, she thought, I'm closer to MC and I'm closer to Sage. I'm going to gain favor all around by volunteering to be the thing to make Joanne feel comfortable. And then I'm going to throw a vote on Joanne, get my votes from Sage and MC, and everything will work out. And even under those assumptions, even if those assumptions are true, I still don't like the plan because of what you just outlined to some degree. Even if she was closer to Sage and even if she was closer to MC, the fact that she is the decoy vote is bad.

You see this in Big Brother all the time, people volunteering to be nominated or anything like that. You think you're gaining favor, but what you're really doing is voluntarily, climbing down the ladder of hierarchy and allowing yourself to be seen as somebody that is vulnerable, as somebody that doesn't have as much power. And people don't really operate on gratitude on Survivor.

They don't go, oh, well, you know, you really had us back there last round, Sophie. So we'll do you one solid this round and be the decoy for you this time. Like, that doesn't really happen. If anything, people are like, oh, man, I owe Sophie so much. It would be way easier for me

if somebody just took her out. you know what I mean like people who take people on the family reward it's like I feel so guilty looking at you I just don't want to even do with it like oh now that now people owe this person

I don't like that they have too much social capital or even worse just like you know I never thought about it before but now that Sophie's the decoy vote all it would take is for me to switch my vote and Sophie's gone should I do that

and like even just opening the pathway for that thought process is dangerous. Especially because people have already been like she's such an immunity threat. She made herself a very juicy target. Something that I have seen on Big Brother a lot. Because Big Brother, as I've talked about, a ton, is the competitions are very easily won by the same people over and over. And something that you see in Big Brother a lot is that if somebody remains immune for a long

period of time or holds power in the game for a long period of time, you'd think, And it does happen that as that immunity extends or that power extends, people go, oh, man, we really need to take this person out. They're such a big threat. But there is a threshold at which they've been in power for so long or they've been untouchable for so long that a learned helplessness starts to sink in. And you start to not even consider the idea of taking them out because it doesn't seem possible.

It doesn't seem like something that you're doing very often. And so you don't come up with those plans because you're just assuming that it's not an option. And this is obviously something that like Boston Rob really loves, right? Like he loves to never even be an option, buddy system it up and all of that stuff. And we've seen that fail certainly on Survivor. But in general, I think it's best to not be somebody that is in consideration as much as possible. Just be like that person that's on the sidelines that just gets kind of like, you know, put in in whatever situation that's like, oh, well, we're not going to obviously do Sophie.

Like even if we wanted to do Sophie, we'd have to get Rizzo to do Sophie first. And then we'd have to put out like, I'll do all this other stuff as opposed to, oh, Rizzo's already doing Sophie. Should we consider this? Yeah. And I think as well, firstly, you'd be like, why was she so willing? She must have a plan. She might be throwing her vote.

I should throw my vote. And I think as well, there's something funny about the fact that she was like, we'll tell Rother with me because that just makes no sense. And then Rizzo, like, voted for M.C. You know what I mean? Right. It was like, so it wasn't like really actually what Rizzo was thinking. So there was an argument that could have been made for anyone.

Joana and Sage just turned on Rizzo, you know? Like, she just really stepped up. Like, it was like, no one, nobody, no one at all. Sophie, Rizzo will vote for me. And everyone was like, right, when we're done here. Like, you know, and then obviously you go all in on like Rizzo not playing the idol. But like, you know, there's a chance, always. I know it's going to be me, guys.

I know he's going to vote for me. I'm the biggest threat. So I know it's going to be. Might as well. might as well just tell them it's me yeah they probably like came to the discussion to be like okay i'm going to argue why i shouldn't be the decoy and then she just was like let me stop you right there i'm the decoy and they were like amazing love that um until it all exploded boarding for flight 246 to toronto is delayed 50 minutes oh what sounds like ojo time

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apply. I have a couple more questions and they are to do with the advantage and the structure of it. What did you think about the fact that Savannah, because they win so much in these challenges, like this is what annoys me because I was just talking to Miles the other day from Australian Survivor about this and he was saying how, you know, for him, because, you know, it's crazy that they didn't throw the challenges. And like, for him, a big thing would be like, well, because in the challenges, obviously, they lose the flint and reward is tied to the immunity challenges. It makes it a lot harder to throw, even though I disagree with that. And I think they should still do it. But like, even in this, I would have loved to see a world where you might think, no one's

going to throw a challenge on this season, but you might think, wow, my allies are in trouble on that other side. Should we try and throw it? You know, and there's something really interesting there because maybe you do all throw it and this is very individual thing with just Savannah's having to do it and everyone else leaves her high and dry as an example. You know what I mean? But the fact that you would get an advantage and food and you win immunity and by the by you go back to a regular

beach where you can look for the idol which is apparently when they actually found the idol. That is a lot of value. Did you think this was too much? Like did Savannah win too much here for you? Because it obviously was like significant. Oh, I mean, it was, it was huge. You know, she's safe.

Then gets to also, like, obviously, just to talk about the decision, obviously it was a no-brainer to not vote. Her vote was completely unnecessary to actually go through with. But her presence there was massive, and there was an implied vote there. So she has a huge impact going over there

while still being immune and then also being able to bank a vote which could be incredibly useful in the future. It's all, yeah, just really a ton of stuff. And Survivor doesn't usually give you that much when you win immunity. It's usually just one immunity,

which is part of what I like about Survivor as opposed to Big Brother, because Big Brother, you get a little much. Yeah, a lot. Yes. But I'm not too, mad at a one time she gets a lot of stuff kind of thing. Yeah.

You know, like if this were like every immunity, then you know, it would be your brother. Yeah. Big Brother, I always say like it's more like a survivor's physically defensive and like you you can win immunity. Like Terry Deeds can win immunity but you never have control.

Whereas in Big Brother, obviously you wield agency when you win the competitions. You, it's physically offensive. I will say for this, some of it's better I mean, an extra vote itself isn't super powerful Although it might be really powerful going forward But very specifically in this instance It might be incredibly powerful

An extra vote, it's not a vote to steal Like more powerful, but like Her presence here was important I think it was better than what we've seen Like she actually earned it with the challenge Like often mostly what we see in the situation is that group wins They win food, they win immunity based on the back

Of one person winning the challenge And then they go to the camp and one person will find something like sold it as an example, which it's also just like planted there. It's not even like someone goes out and finds it. So I guess like at least Savannah earned it in a way that makes more sense. Obviously, this stuff is so extreme and makes the show seeming very produced and very physically based.

So I don't love it, but I think it does make more sense than what they've done in the past. And I don't think it was like game breaking. So I'm not like very angry at it. And then I was going to ask you as well, you could have, you can tell based on many votes were read that she didn't, that she didn't vote. Remind me how many votes, what the votes were. I can't. They said after three votes that the person voted out, I think, or whatever.

It was what? It was one vote. However, it was one vote for Sophie. So Jeff called it at the third vote is what you're saying. Sure. At the third vote for MC. Yeah. as opposed to reading out one more

because in a world where there are six votes it could have still been tied with three MC votes. Exactly. Yeah, that's what it was. So do we think they caught that is maybe the question. Do you get ahead of that or is that like way too crazy? I think you need to be watching out for that at all times on survival.

But for Savannah, do you go back and be like, I didn't vote? I was never voted. It was always a bluff. Or do you think that they're like, he has something else. if she didn't vote. Do you know what I mean? She could be like, no, my advantage was literally just to be there. But then they'd be like, but then why did you go to the booth?

I don't think you need to get ahead of it. I think if they catch it, then your excuses. You caught me. I never even had a vote. My whole goal was to go there and pretend I had a vote. That was the whole thing. And then, you know, that's your excuse. I don't think you call it out because there's a very real chance that nobody noticed.

in this new era though those notes are counting the votes let's be honest I don't know I just struggled but yeah it is I mean it is mostly counting to six so it is something that you can but I think the people have said that it like I know Christian is always doing that and he probably I haven't listened to the podcast yet but I'm sure he's talked about this um I think my issue is because she goes to the booth if she's just like I was never voting they'd be like you have something else they said it was an advantage and you went to the booth so now you have yeah I'm I mean, I think you say, yeah, I had to go to the booth.

Otherwise, it would have been obvious that I wasn't voting. I think you would have an extra vote. Is that crazy? Well, what I would say to that is that in this. Like, maybe it brings me a little over a side. I think the problem with that is that, like, number one, in this specific instance, that negates the power of the extra vote. Like, just to briefly talk about this, the reason I think this extra vote is very potentially

valuable is that heading into the next round assuming Sage and Joanne and Sophie rejoin the old Hina plus Alex and it's a 6-3 vote there's a very real chance they'll want to split their votes between like Rizzo and Savannah or something

along those lines but because Savannah has a secret extra vote her Soph Rizzo and her extra vote could make it a 4-3-3 Oh wow that's going to be fun do you think that's what it'll be? I think there's a very real chance.

Oh, damn. And they're going to be like, well, what if we can't split it? What if she has an extra vote? And then someone's going to come in like me, like, anything's possible. Just take a shot. And then they're going to lose and I'm going to look stupid. And I'm going to remember that overthinking is good. There's a reason we do it. It's good to be anxious all the time. That would suck because

it's really hard to prepare for every eventuality. So you are right. Yeah, that is powerful. And Savannah has to know this too. Like she's ready for a potential six three scenario. And knowing this extra vote that she has could potentially win the day. She wants to keep that as secret as possible.

Yeah. And so trying to hide that as much as possible, I think is going to be valuable. Even outside of this specific scenario, I think coming out and saying it's an extra vote, unless you can literally show people, which maybe you can, there's a good chance. They just won't believe you. They'll be like, oh, no, it's something better at that. Well, you know. That was my thought process.

Like, whatever they think she has is going to be stronger than an extra vote. But then now you pointed out this could be the most powerful of all the extra votes ever. after years you're saying the extra vote is completely useless. We've found it. Yeah, they're screwed. That is my favorite outcome personally of the next round. Because again, even whether or not

it was a calculated move by Joanne and Sage or whatever the case is, I love the idea of and maybe people wouldn't because it's a little sneaky to have given her an extra vote on top of everything else that they gave them. But it would require a very specific plan and formula to be like to force a split vote after Rizzo doesn't play as

idle twice and then use an extra vote that they were able to bank from the previous tribal to go 433 and that's like a way to to get on top would be very fun in my I don't think he will do that because I think they're too tenuous now to be splitting a vote even without like they know that Savannah could have something she won an advantage and they seem to doubt that it was just being a tribal council. They can count possibly that she hasn't voted. Yeah. And they also would be, yeah,

really be relying on Sophie and Joanne and Sage. And that's all now looking a little bit dicey. The lame way of Savannah Rizzo, kind of like surviving the next tribal is like what we see on Big Brother a lot. As I said, like learned helplessness of like, well Savannah's probably got a superpower. He's still got an idol.

we might as well work with them. Like this episode? Against them. That's what they just did. You don't know that. You was like that's that. Yeah. Or they wanted MC out.

Maybe it wasn't specifically MC. Maybe, you know, again, maybe Joanne specifically wanted Sophie out and caved on the MC decision. But, you know, it's again, it's like, you know, yeah, that might have been what happened this round. It might be what happens next round. and that's kind of an unfortunate way for the game to play out. But, you know, I see it as. Rizzo has an idol. It's scary.

Savannah adds to that pressure. It starts cracking Sophie from MC. Now there's no cavalry to try and, like, tackle this idol issue. Well, that's done. Okay. MC or Sophie, we don't really even have the votes to... possibly go for Sophie even if we wanted to. Right.

Because there's three votes against MC. So, um, yeah. I mean, I think I just see Juan and Sage as more heena strong. And again, like, so like Rizzo going is great for that because that's what they want. And they're also fine with Sophie going. So this was like the most egregious thing to do if you're heena strong. And then I also think they should be heena strong. I think that's where we disagree, where you're like, yeah, take it.

I'm like, well, you know, they've just flipped together and at a point you've got to just find a home, you know, like, I don't know. I don't know, man. Like, there are certainly scenarios where I'm fine with you running with a previous tribe that was fairly tight of four when you're two. But like, those are the specific scenarios. Like most of the time, I would be like, why in the world? I don't care what they're telling you. why in the world would you run with a tribe of four? In that world where it's MC,

Christina, like if you take out Sophie as an example, like it's MC, Christina, Stephen and Alex, I think are all quite tight. Right. Yeah,

I definitely see it. I just kind of feel like that's like a future problem. Going back and forth, like, and again, we can talk about this till we die and we won't. Certainly. We're going to get to the chizzy

and then wrap it up. But I think that, it's a dicey thing to do the pendulum strategy, right? Like that's the position they expound themselves in. That's what the great Rob Cessinino, Rob Cessonino,

a name I should be able to say, coined over 20 years ago. Tony's great at it, you know, like the greats. And I think that it is tricky. It's tricky because you're a minority in the game, which is always a tricky position.

Tika graded it. It does rely on both sides being so against each other which may be the case here that you can actively cut into both in ways that are brutal without one coming over the top and winning and again if we didn't have the power of the edit

we'd say maybe they're doing that you know they took out Nate last time they'd taken out MC here it was a big win for Uli but like if Uli are down next I just think Uli still have a little bit too much but again I'm always having to look at how I'm looking at the edit on that

the fact that that's scarier to me than a big Hina group could be. I think that they could have played it a little more deftly and achieved a bit more, especially with how scared people are of Rizzo's idol and how boldly he's willing to use it. It does feel like quite a concern. I think that more could have done on that. But like if in a world where they wanted to go for MC,

and that was left on the cutting room floor, she was a threat. Like, there's certainly merit there. It's just like, it's not what I saw, and it's not how I personally would go. But I think it was, you've made good points, you know? And also, again, like, I very much, in the world where that's the decision,

I do think you try to flush the idol as often as possible. Not by necessarily voting him out, but by getting him to play it. By not telling him, that's definitely not voting for you. Yeah. then yeah but look it's like i came in here i watched episode a couple of times i had more notes than i've had on any episode this season and you kind of like changed everything i thought i knew you know which i love that's a really fun thing you know how often yeah i mean like um what your place is in

this world which i now currently do once again survivor survivor analysis i feel has a lot of creativity to it at times because of what you don't see um and i always anytime i see something that feels like, oh, that's so obviously bad or this makes no sense. I definitely want to try to feel like, okay, what is the world where it made sense in this person said to make this move? That is my guiding principle as a

survivor analyst. I really do try to do that. I think I often give people too much credit because I'm trying to do that. But I think for me, parts of this made sense because I just saw the pressure of what like Rizzo was, like I felt Rizzo's

pressure so I could kind of see how it felt that way. so maybe you're right who knows but then it becomes if I'm giving the grace do I agree with it and I don't okay great

so that's where we're it's also it's the middle of the day if anyone's watching the video it is like dark right now because of the storm so do the chizzy

take away Jacob's take a wine scene and MC color one two three one one one three

one two one two three it's getting it's getting kind of cheesy three two one Taran would you like

to give your chizzy points first. Now I'm like, I see the whole world differently. So, no, I think I'm going to stick with my points, but give you a... I mean, I think there's an easy number one. Yes. Which is Rizzo. One. No, true. Yes. Yes. Keeps his idol.

Great play. Unfortunately, we're kind of limited to half the cast because, like, or maybe you disagree. I'd love to hear if you think that there's anybody outside of the people who went to travel who, like, even had enough content. Yeah. Okay, we'll get to it.

Okay, let me, let me think of who was outside of tribal that had enough. Yeah, I just feel like we didn't see enough of them. But maybe Alex for like, but I don't know how successful his damage control was. Anyway, I think Rizzo's number one. I think it's hard to say Savannah's not number two. I think that like the challenge. win was very impressive and it mattered a lot and she played it

exactly how she should. She came in with the MC argument gave Rizzo the leverage he needed to make that argument as well. Perfectly played it, knew exactly to save her vote to bank it. So good stuff from Savannah.

And the number three is tricky because pretty much everyone else kind of theoretically lost on this vote unless you go outside of what was shown to us. And I will not give chizzy points based on theories that are not supported by the edit because that is, it's one thing to talk about it. It's another thing to actively give points.

Yeah. So then it's like who else is there even to give points to at this point? I can't give them to Sophie, whose plan I did not like. It's hard to give it to MC when she goes. got voted out. It's hard to give it to Sage and Juan for from what we saw being pushed into a vote

they didn't want to do. So maybe it is Alex for kind of like coming back to the camp and you know, making good on his position. And Alex also benefits theoretically from MC leaving

in my opinion. So yeah, I'm going to say Alex number three. Okay, well that's interesting because I in a similar direction. Three to Rizzo, I think by far, I think that he, I mean, it's definitely by what we were shown, like he, his pressure did all of this.

And he's so bold and I love the way that he thinks about the game from every level where it's, okay, I can be more fluid now, it's actually not that bad to have lost an ally, let alone also to have lost Nate, when you may not have your ally the next time because we keep flipping into different numbers.

So, you know, like even playing the idol, it's like, oh, we won that one. we didn't get the majority. We kept Nate. Now we're like in a four, six, or ten. Is the minority anyway? And then you're going to get split up. So keeping your idol there.

Somebody found an idol this episode, didn't I completely forgot. Christina found an idol. Wait, I should have given points to Christina for fighting an idol. You want to? You still can. I think I should. I think I should. I think Christina should get the third one.

Yeah. I thought about that as well. It was funny how it was like the MC, MC playing her idol was like, they couldn't have had a worse reaction. They're like, we don't trust her. She didn't need to do it. but now someone else could find the idols. Like every bad thing they could have said about a playing the idol, they've said.

But yeah, I think Rizzo is wielding implicit immunity very powerfully. We've seen a lot of that. We've seen on Australian survive. I think Haley did it really well. Ferris did it well. We've seen it on Survivor in South Africa. Jacques, he kind of reminded me of Jacques in that, like, minority position, just like stretching it out every week.

It'll be annoying if he goes home with the idol soon. It'll be like, you know, you get until you don't. But that's the risk he's willing to take. think he's looking at the game the right way. So I'm giving three points for Rizzo. I thought that was easy. Two points to Savannah. It's mostly for winning the challenge.

I do think that this happens without her. She did some good things to... I don't think M.C. leaves without her, for the record. I kind of think she does. I think she does. From what we saw, at least, I felt like it was when she came into the game. Not only did she seemingly convince Rizzo that M.C... Well, I think it's not the same thing.

But I did agree. but also she then gave him the leverage to be able to push MC where previously he'd been like, I don't care. Yeah, it's hard because there were two bits of leverage. Like she showed up right around the time that Heena were cracking, which gave him leverage as well.

So it's like what was the leverage that would have pushed into that or did it require a combination? Impossible for us to know in the edit and possibly impossible to know in reality. I think it could have happened without her, but again, we can't really know. A lot of it is on winning. I do think that she made, you know, she connected well with even.

I'm a little bit concerned about the way that people talk about it now. Even MC in the ex-interviews called her a mean girl. They say she's rubbing people the wrong way. I don't think that's great. So those are some concerns for me, to be honest. But I still don't think there's anything else here to be two points. Yeah, I mean, and to be fair, I think I don't think we saw those specific traits in this specific episode. True.

Yes, for sure. If it's on this episode, that is true. I think, yeah, we saw an improvement, which is good. Um, yeah, I honorable mention to Christina for the Idol. I think I will, I, I thought about the Sophie we just met, um, for having good arguments later that Rizzo clearly agreed with about like, don't take me out now, but I just really didn't like her initial plan. So I can't give it to her. Even though I think that her objective was to survive and she did. But I think a lot of that was like, she was a worst target for them. And they just made a good choice. I will give one point to Sof, the sof we know. I do like, I feel bad calling herself for the right. I want to call her Sophie. No, Sophie, we know. Yeah. And then we know both, but she's so irritating. I like her a lot.

I wish she could have talked about her more. Yeah, I mean, we, Rizzo was right. That it would be way easier to lose one of them from her, just from talking about it. Yeah, I think that she's on really well socially. Like, Alex, she's still important to Alex. Sage really likes her. Like, she, and she's, I think she's in like a good social spot, like, of those three. We always hear about Rizzo and Savannah.

Where's so, you know? I think that's great. So I'm giving her a point for that. I mean, that's the three, right? That's the Oolie three that we currently have. And they're getting my cheesy points. Is there anything else from this episode, Tarrant? Anything else to make me question my place on Earth?

I don't think so. As you can tell, I completely blanked out, like, everything that wasn't related to the tribal at this point. That's so fair. That's so incredibly fair. They were on a different beach. They, the storm is crazy right now. should probably go and cuddle my cats through the storm. But, yeah, and Christina found it.

I mean, a bit again, like, and as MC said, that she found that when they were on that beach, just having the afternoon to themselves. Maybe that's why I slope should lose a point. How did she let that happen? She was the only one left with them. Yeah. I mean, she was doing a confessional or something.

Yeah, I mean, being the only one makes it harder to guard. She was put in babysitting Judy and they found an idol. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Do we have anything else? Taran, you have a lot to plug? you have a book coming out.

I do have a book coming out. You did a very long deep dive. You have much stuff. Yeah, if you're interested in a deep dive on Big Brother, we got tons of them actually, not just the seven hour one, but like three other four hour ones. I think it's three, yeah.

I did write a book. This is the advanced copy version. It's not hardcover, but I've been dealing with a lot of hard covers over at my local book store. I just finished signing. over 4,200 of them, which killed my shoulder, weirdly, not my wrist. Weird flex.

I mean, now you probably can't flex. It wasn't even, like, I used my right hand. It was my left shoulder. Explain that, body. Lifestyles of the rich and the famous. Crazy. But you can still pre-order it. You can find it on Tarynarmshung.com.

So check that out. I think it's very fun, especially if you're a survivor person, you don't know much about Big Brother. I think this is perfect for you. You'll get a sense of what Big Brother's like and why someone like me is so dedicated to it. What makes me so drawn to it and what makes it special. And you can also find, I've got a Patreon where I'm watching all kinds of shows, including some of the ones I mentioned, Squid Game, Physical Asia, which is a show I love. I never wrote about ever.

It's the original is physical 100. For as much as I complain about physical competitions on Big Brother, I do love physical competitions when it's all athletes competing and they're all on equal footing. And it's a very, very fun show. It's a bunch of countries in Asia competing in this particular version of it. And the Traders UK, the Traders Canada, Traders U.S. when that happens, Survivor, the Amazing Race, all kinds of shows. I'm watching them on the Patreon. I'm in a little bubble. I'm watching the show.

We're talking about it as it's happening. It's a good time. So come over to the Patreon and check it out. Okay, well, I have a lot less than that. I'm excited for next week now. I feel like there's, you know, so many possibilities. I feel like we need a podcast just on this podcast so I can like deconstruct how I feel about the show.

But I will have Miles, aforementioned Miles, here to talk about. He got back on board with the season. So he'll be here to talk about the episode on Survivor Global. We have Gus and Around. This week, Peter and I spoke about our trip. to Hawaii in San Francisco, we saw Taryn. Shout out to Taryn on that podcast as well. So Gus and Around podcast on YouTube.

It's also on Apple and Spotify. We're also doing a Q&A for that next week. So send in any questions that you want me and Peter to answer. But this has been great. This has been a really fun time. I don't think I have more. Follow me at Shannon Gates for all of that. Thank you so much, Taryn.

You broke my brain, but I, you know, that's good. I didn't mean to. Well, it would be mean if you came in meaning to. That would be a strange thing. I came to break you down in preparation for the next draft podcast. It worked. Well, I wanted to, the drives is, well, we were not driving for ages, so. Listen, I got to get in early.

Yeah, so, like, also, if I just slowly decline now over months, do you have left? Oh. Oh, it's just Juan now, yeah, yeah. Just Juan. I want to go slow team, Juan. I'm joking. Juan's been great. Possibly he's masterminding all of them.

in ways that the edit will not grace us with. This is why I actually don't like, not that you're being serious, but people are serious about Big Brother when we draft on Big Brother. And then, like, I have an argument for somebody I drafted. It's like, oh, typical. Oh, he's just arguing because he drafted that person.

But then, like, you know, neglecting the fact that, you know, like if you've watched for, in this instance, If you've watched my streams for the entire season, then you know I've been like, I've been like, Chowan, oh boy, you poor soul, watching him seemingly be so ignorant to his alliance. And now the one podcast I do, I'm like, I don't know, this might actually make sense.

What do you gain by giving grace to the people you dropped anyway? You know what I mean? It's not like there's points for that. I don't expect to find logic in it, unfortunately. People will look for anything that they can to, to kind of like invalidate analysis that they don't like, I think. I think, I'm not, I mean, like, I hope to analyze people objectively, but I think I do hold on maybe to hope when I'm like,

when Q was my last, my last drop big, I'm like, you can win. That could, I, and I had like scenarios. I don't think I, I literally, I watched the first episode and went, oh, that's me. Why? Not winning the draft. I had Annie, Matt, and Joanne. Yeah, that was bad.

Well, I was a grenade. so yeah I mean honestly I think you still like you still probably had a better chance than me winning the draft after episode one look I mean it's been again there aren't that many options to win the draft

this season so yeah it's going to go kind of one of one way probably Karen thank you so much this has been fun thank you our team behind the scenes thank you to everyone for listening and I will see you next time bye Australian Survivor is saying.

Survive in New Zealand. Salviour. Survivor. Survivor. 21 South African. 12 ordinary Australians. 16 New Zealand. One million pounds.

Millions. Million euros. Eighty million. Roveley. Tribes space. The cyber travel. Shire. The adventure of a lifetime.

The adventure of a lifetime.