Rich Habits Podcast - Leaked Anthropic Financials, Oura Ring Delays IPO, & America.gov

Episode Date: October 2, 2026

Robert and Austin talk about the biggest market-moving stories from this week. ---🤖 VCX: the public ticker for private tech --⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠���click here or visit https://getvcx.com/ to learn more! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠---🚀 Invest alongside Robert and Austin and 1,100+ other members inside the Rich Habits Network,⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠click here!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠---⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠🏆 Wall Street Favorites⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ is LIVE!⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Click here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to see what Wall Street is buying before everyone else.---🧿 Protect your family with term life insurance from Suriance! Get a $1M+ policy for $50 or less per month.⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Click here!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠---‼️ Have feedback to share? Please let us a comment on Spotify! We're excited to mold these new weekly episodes to be exactly what our listeners want.---⚡️ Sign up for the Rich Habits Newsletter and never miss a market-moving headline again,⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠click here!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠---⭐ Download our FREE Financial Planner –⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠click here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⭐ Download our FREE Budgeting Template –⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠click here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⭐ Earn 3.8% on your savings with a High-Yield Cash Account –⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠click here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⭐ Automatically buy stock where you shop with Grifin –⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠click here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⭐ Protect your family with term life insurance from Suriance –⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠click here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⭐ Use code “Spotify” for 15% off our 4-module video course –⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠click here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠---📬 Inquire about working together – [e-mail]---This content is sponsored by NEOS Investments. The creator is compensated by NEOS to discuss NEOS ETFs. This content is for informational purposes only, and is not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice, and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Before investing, carefully review the NEOS ETFs prospectus at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠neosfunds.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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Hello, mid-sized business. We see your big ambitions, but how do you achieve the wins you want when your technology is holding you back? SAP Grow is built to grow with your business, no matter its size, with AI embedded at its core, working across every system, all ready to go from day one so you can hit the ground running. Bring it with SAP Grow. AI Cloud ERP for any size business. You are tuning in to the Rich Habits Radar, our Friday, up. episode of the Rich Habits podcast where every Friday morning we're coming at you with the biggest headlines impacting you and your money. This episode is brought to you by VCX, the public

ticker for private tech. My name's Austin Hankwitz. I'm joined by my co-host Robert Croke, and the three things sitting at the top of our rich habits radar this week include every important AI executive signing a pact at the White House, Anthropics IPO filing getting leaked, in mortgage rates now rising toward 8%. Be sure to stick around to the end where we talk about ORA ring and their delayed IPO, which we think is a pretty big deal because we were just talking about the IPO, Robert, but feels like maybe about a month ago.

So we'll close the loop there very soon. All right, Robert, let's stick into our first story. That's right. Trump got AI's biggest rivals to sign a pact. Then they fought about it behind closed doors. Tuesday afternoon, President Trump stood outside the White House, flanked by roughly two dozen tech CEOs. Jensen Wong, Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Dario Amadeh and Elon Musk, and several others, all smiling for the cameras after signing what the administration billed as a unified industry statement on AI safety.

Trump called them, quote, the greatest most brilliant people in the world and announced a rebrand along the way, saying, going forward, he wants AI called superintelligence because in his words, it's not artificial. So here's what they actually signed. A one-page voluntary agreement committing companies to risk reviews, internal auditing, and third-party evaluations on all of their models. Ask point-blank if it was binding, Trump said, I think it's morally binding, not legally binding. So not enforced by any agency, just morally, they're really going to be policing each other, and that's the way it should work, he said. Now, behind closed doors on that same day, Jensen Wong and other executives,

directly confronted anthropic CEO Dario Amadeh, asking him, according to people familiar with what happened, why he's been so extreme in public about AI's dangers. Amade's answer was, it's important to be honest with the public about what these models can actually do and not downplay the risk. So while the cameras outside were capturing this unified industry, the room inside was arguing about whether Amadei should even be allowed to keep sounding the alarm on artificial intelligence. I guess super intelligence, whatever you want to call it, AI, SI, whatever. Now, this tension between them is not new.

This summer, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, they had actually coalesced around a real regulatory idea, which was a FINRA-style self-regulatory body for artificial intelligence, the same model that governs brokerage firms today. Jensen Wong, Mark Zuckerberg, and Elon Musk spoke out against it. Their objection was, and this was reported by the Wall Street Journal, that that structure would have concentrated enormous power in exactly the three companies pushing hardest for the oversight, which is Anthropic, Open AI, and Google. So the real regulatory idea was scrapped, but was signed on Tuesday was that one pager that had no real enforcement mechanism, just a compromise of people all coming together saying, yeah, we'll do better. Yeah, self-policing. Well, on top of that, Anthropic just came off a brutal stretch with this administration.

A two and a half week shutdown of two of its models over security concerns and a blacklisting by the Pentagon after the company refused to let its AI be used for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons in a $200 million contract dispute. And at the same time, Anthropic is gearing up for its IPO. It hopes to value the company near $2 trillion. So Amadei shows up to a private Sunday dinner with Trump, their first one-on-one meeting ever, and getting called fantastic by the same president who months ago was blacklisting his company is a real reversal. Trump even called Wong, a very handsome guy in the same breath.

The tone of the whole event was closer to a product launch than a safety summit, but we'll see what happens. Yeah, not everyone in the room was feeling weird. AMD's CEO, Lisa Sue, let's go, Lisa. she left it in a quote, feeling very encouraged, telling reporters that there was a lot of optimism and a sense of responsibility in the room. Alex Karp, the CEO and co-founder of Palantir, said something a little bit different. He said, we have to take responsibility for the dangers we're aware of. All of us do. And by the way, American people don't want separate rules for tech people and for themselves.

So, Robert, I think it's important we talk about this story, this PAC that was just signed by all these people. You know, AI safety was a headline. I'd say about two weeks ago where they were saying, hey, we got to slow down. Elon, Sam Altman, and Dario all took to X.com to say we should slow down. They took those conversations, turned them into a sort of, you know, a larger conversation that took place at the White House. They signed a piece of paper saying, let's be a little bit more safe. But does this really change anything? I wonder, in your perspective, what does this mean for our listeners and their money? I think it means that I'm kind of torn on this because if we slow down, do we let China and other countries pass us in this technology. But if we go wild, wild west and we don't have

guardrails and safety involved in this, and that's why this meeting was so important, then I think that's a problem as well. And if you think like when Dario and Sam went public with these slowdown fears a few weeks ago, cybersecurity names like Crowdstrike and Palo Alto networks spiked on the someone needs to defend against this trade while chip stock sold off. So this is the same dynamic with a political bow on it. A government that keeps choosing optics. Overenforcement is a government that isn't going to slow anything down, which is bullish for this Kappex story.

So Invidia, meta, the hyperscalers, right up until the next rogue agent headline spooks the market again. Remember, there's a ton of things going on behind the scenes. I felt that was definitely a rogue. Let's put it all out there and scare everyone to ruffle the feathers. and it worked because we saw what happened to the markets. So if you're holding Nvidia meta on an AI build-out thesis, nothing about Tuesday changes your position.

A morally binding agreement with no enforcement body is functionally the same as no agreement. So if you're more cautious, keep an eye on Anthropics IPO Roadshow, a CEO this willing to publicly disagree with its own industry and his own president, $2 trillion of market cap riding on investor confidence, is a wild card we definitely need to keep and watch out for as this listing nears.

Yeah, well, let's talk more about the listing. Jumping to our second story here, we all know that Anthropic is gearing up for what could be the largest IPO in history. This could take place in November at a $2 trillion plus valuation. As a reminder, SpaceX was $1.75 trillion, which, by the way, that's more than the GDP of Spain.

But inside of this, you, you know, listing here is a 300-page prospectus. And for those you that might not know what a prospectus is, a prospectus is essentially for any investment, kind of a breakdown, a written legal breakdown of what could go right, what could go wrong, and why you should invest in the company. Now, this prospectus has been leaked, and it was reviewed by Reuters, and inside of it is a company arguing with itself on nearly every single page. A third of the filing is just dedicated to risk factors, right? More than double the space spent explaining what the company actually does. So quite literally, 48 pages spent describing the business, the opportunity,

what they're working on, what they're excited about, and then 80 pages describing the danger of what they're building. Now, the paradox is interesting because Anthropics says the only way to make AI safer is to make it more powerful. But defiling itself admits that a more powerful AI is more likely to behave in unexpected, even dangerous ways. The filing says its AI can, and I quote, dramatically improve quality of life and transform every sector of the global economy, while also being quoted saying, if not properly controlled, could pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity. The financials explain why investors need convincing on something that big. According to Reuters, Anthropic loss more than

$50 billion over the two years ending in 2025 and has already locked in more than $500 billion in future spending commitments. The New York Times and Fortune, pulling from the same prospectus, put 2025 alone at a $42 billion net loss and an $8 billion operating loss on revenue that grew 12-fold year over year to $4.6 billion. Now, Fortune noted the company spent $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure last year alone, more than its entire annual revenue. So, and forward-looking, the company has committed to roughly $518 billion in cloud computing and infrastructure buildout in the next years ahead. So for context, SpaceX posted a comparatively modest $4.2 billion loss over the same two-year stretch. It's also worth remembering that

SpaceX is down 30 to 34 percent from its post-IPO peak as lockup as lockup as a lot up expirations and spending concerns caught up with the stock exactly the kind of landing Anthropic is trying to avoid. So to manage all the risk, Anthropic isn't asking for more oversight, it's asking for less. The filing asks investors to hand control of the company to its seven founders, even as it separately warns that concentrating power is one of the exact dangers AI poses to society. So in other words, the founders are distinctly equipped to be stewards of our mission, but the governance structure could produce decisions that, quote, may conflict with short, medium or long-term financial interest and business performance. So the translation, public shareholders get economic exposure, but not real say and how this is handled.

That's really interesting thinking about how they want public shareholders to not have any voting power. So crazy. And scary. Yeah. Well, speaking at the UN last week, CEO Dario Omadei day leaned to do. into the irony rather than, you know, kind of denying it, quoted saying no leader, no company, no nation can manage this alone, which I think is a kind of weird thing to say. The same month, you're asking investors to trust seven, only seven people with a two trillion dollar company. And the friends with hidden risk problem runs even deeper, you know, because like everyone knows anthropic as this company, but the revenue they're getting, the partnerships they've signed,

that's just as important if you're an investor and you're trying to figure out what this IPO could mean for you. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Broadcom, they, four alone made up 47% of Anthropics 2025 revenue. And those same companies are also their compute suppliers, meaning Anthropic is contractually on the hook to pay for least computing capacity, even if it doesn't use it. The Financial Times reported separately that just two customers account for roughly a quarter of all of Anthropics revenue, with a large share of its user base on a no long-term contract at all, meaning that revenue could evaporate fast, even if it's just one of those relationships sours.

And because Amazon and Google carry large stake, equity stake ownership and Anthropic on their own balance sheets at today's sky high valuations, a bad IPO or a pricing doesn't just hurt Anthropic, right, because Anthropic wants to make as much money on this whenever they sell their equity, but it forces a write-down on Amazon's, and Google and all these other companies that own equity in Anthropic as well.

So, Austin, we know they've got to get liquidity. That's why they've got to be careful of when these IPOs happen. There's a lot happening out here right now. What does this mean for you and your money? This filing is Anthropics lawyers billing as much money as they can. No, I'm just joking. But it does include an excruciating detail. Every reason a sophisticated investor should be asking the hard questions.

before buying into this IPO. And it's why, you know, we didn't talk about buying SpaceX's IPO on day one. It saw a crazy pop, came back down. You know, we started buying SpaceX. We talked about it at 125, 135, 135, 145. We think that's pretty reasonable, not 220, 230, whatever it might be. Most of these hyped up IPOs experience a pop, and then they come back down to reality after the lockup periods expire.

So if you're thinking about buying into this listing, you need to separate a couple things in your brain. The first one is the business. The business is growing genuinely really, really fast, right? By the end of this year, they'll be doing, what is it, 100, $120 billion in annualized revenue. The company, though, is telling you the other part of the story, which is that their path to profitability means that they have to spend multiple times of their revenue on compute. And, you know, all the crazy stuff that comes with that, I think we just saw Anthropic

and SpaceX have another sort of partnership that was announced. here with that data compute stuff going on over there said like they got to spend a ton a ton of money now don't buy this thinking that it's going to be a you know a SaaS company with a 10x revenue valuation multiple and you're just going to ride off into the sunset if you are going to buy this buy it from the perspective of i have the ability to invest into a venture type you know company here which is essentially not profitable growing revenue like a weed but they're not profitable they're not free cash flow positive right this is not your apple microsoft blue chip amazon this company despite the two trillion dollar valuation is still very

much a high beta high risk bet on the future of compute and AI and all that fun stuff which is great something to bet on for sure but you have to understand that this is not one of these blue chip you know googles that just prints cash for shareholders or a meta this is a company that is spending all of the money they're making from revenue to go make more in the future. And that trap could get really violent if they don't spend it correctly. I think that's a good call out for me, Austin. The bigger takeaway is all of that, but also that Wall Street has spent years pricing in that AI will change everything.

And investors have mostly shrugged off the safety warnings as marketing. This prospectus is the first time one of these companies has put, quote, this could end humanity and quote please give us a $2 trillion valuation in the same legal document and whether the IPO prices anywhere near that number will tell you whether investors are actually pricing the risk

or just buying on the hype so for me please be careful know what you're doing out there we called it out perfectly what was going to happen with SpaceX there's a lot of the same thing happening here so just be careful and know your buy box and what you're doing So, Austin, before we jump into our third story, support from the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech. For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination. And for generations, everyday Americans could be a part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all the U.S. stock market.

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So visit getvcx.com for more information. That's getvcx.com. Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com. This is a a paid sponsorship. All right, Robert, take us into our third headline story for this episode. Definitely. This one is exciting and a little bit confusing for everyone. So the jobs report beat expectations, but that's exactly why your mortgage rates just spiked. So Tuesday morning brought what looked like good news. Private employers added in that 90,000 jobs in September according to ADP, blowing past expectations and a sharp acceleration from a revised 36,000.

in August. Education and health led the way with 55,000 new jobs, leisure and hospitality added 22,000, while financial activities actually shed 16,000 jobs. The number sets up Friday's official Labor Department report where economists are modeling 84,000 jobs added and unemployment holding steady at 4.1%. And we filmed these on Thursdays, but it comes out on Friday. So by watching this, You should know what that report said. So hopefully, unemployment did, you know, hang steady at 4.1 and 84,000 jobs were added. Now, normally a stronger than expected job number is a great win. We want people to have jobs.

But this week, it landed in the middle of something else, which was not foreseen. The housing market just had its worst week in four years. 30-year fixed mortgage rates jumped to 7.28% up from 7.03%, which is the biggest single weekly increase since October of 2022, according to Freddie Mac. Rates started September at 6.71 percent, and a historic bond market sell-off sent them climbing from there. Now they're sitting at the highest point since 2001. You go to mortgage, what is it, Robert Mortgage Rates News Daily, something like that, website, and you can see a breakdown of all the different types of loans. 30-year loans right now at 7.6, 7.7%. It is bonkers. And the reason for that is because

the 10-year treasury yield. This is the benchmark that mortgage rates track most closely to. It hit its highest level since 2001 as well. And this is the connective tissue to our jobs number. That sell-off is being driven by inflation that won't quit, a surge in government debt issuance, and heavy corporate borrowing to fund the AI buildout, and it's all pushing yields higher. A resilient labor market and solid pay growth, the same data point that Wall Street cheered Tuesday morning, is also exactly the kind of data that keeps the Fed cautious about cutting and keeping bond yields elevated. Good news on jobs in this environment reads as bad news for anyone trying to finance a house right now. Mortgage applications fell 6% for the week ending September 25th, the fourth straight week of declines per the Mortgage Bankers Association.

In Georgia, the gentleman named Adam Wharton had a full ask offer on his home within four days of listing it in early September. then when rates jumped he said and I quote since that it's been nothing no scheduled showings no offers no nothing from people who have looked at it before he said he's not panicking his existing mortgage six at 3.35% with the payment under a thousand a month so he and his wife are just pulling the listing and they're going to rent it out instead waiting for the market to loosen he's quoted saying everybody has in their minds these two and three and four percent mortgages and unfortunately it's much higher than that today Yeah, definitely that instinct, don't sell, don't touch the cheap rate is the lock-in effect that's defined this entire housing cycle.

And after showing real signs of cracking the summer, this week's rate spike threatens to freeze it right back up. Meanwhile, prices haven't budged either. The national median home price right now hit a record in August of $429,100 up 1.6% year over year, even as sales fell to their lowest level, and pushed rates higher. Buyers would normally offset a higher rate with a bigger down payment, but home prices are up more than 50% since 2019, which means that they don't have more money to buy these houses with. They're just so expensive.

And the response from buyers has instead to be using adjustable rate mortgages as, you know, as we started this year, the stat Robert is 6.3% of all applications were adjustable rate mortgages, but now it's 10%. Right? So about a 4% increase as of September 18. And we're filming this here October 1st. So I'm sure they're even increasing more if people are even finding mortgage applications at all.

I also read Robert that one buyer bought a home in South Carolina in cash using a family trust loan so that they could close immediately. And then they took an arm out at that 5.75% against it afterward. But that's the same kind of gamble where we saw a lot of people kind of get burned on heading into 2008. So, you know, I'm building a house right now. I'm going through the mortgage application process. It is kicking my ass. But one day at a time, baby. That's what I like to think.

Robert, you know real estate. You know it very well. You are buying rentals right now. Actually, I think you're paying cash for him, though. What is your take on the mortgage rates, real estate right now? Is this 2008 all over again? What should people think about this? How are you thinking about this for yourself and your money?

I would say it is a very tricky situation and one of the worst I've ever seen in 30 years of being in real estate because on one hand, people are being forced to live in this renter nation. But on the other hand, I feel it's a really great time to still buy real estate if you're an investor. Because right now, I think it puts us in a tough situation to pay seven and a half, eight percent interest rate if it's your single family home. but if you're a cash buyer or you're buying as an investor, it won't affect you as much. So this is the clearest good news is bad news set up we've covered all year. A strong labor market and solid wage growth are themselves part of the reason yields

and mortgage rates won't come down because they give the Fed less cover to cut. So if you're sitting on cash waiting to buy a house, this is not the week to rush out and do it because showings have stopped, sellers with 3% mortgages aren't budging, and brokers are describing the market as fully stalled, and I am seeing this every day with mortgage lender friends and real estate agents. I even had a real estate agent tell me that in northwest Ohio, over like 67% of real estate agents haven't sold one single house this year.

So for me, the bigger takeaway is the economy is sending two signals that used to point in the same direction, and now they don't. Jobs data this strong should be an all clear sign. Instead, it's arriving at the exact moment. Borrowing costs are punishing the one asset class housing that most Americans net worth is built on. So when the labor market and the housing market stop moving together, that usually is the bond market trying to tell you something the stock market hasn't priced in just yet. And I think that is the, you know, stubborn inflation at three and a half percent. I think that is the federal debt at $40 trillion. I think all of that has to do with this.

Absolutely. It's very annoying, Robert, that the 10-year yield is above 5%. Now, we talk about this inside the Rich Habits Network. Here's the interesting part. You know, stock market not tell you yet, join the Rich Habits Network to get this kind of insight. But historically speaking, when the 10-year yield is above 5%, the S&P 500's PE ratio is 15 times. Right now it's 20 times. which tells me either we're going to get some big multiple compression in the S&P 500, which I hope we don't for our sake.

I want stocks to go up. But historically speaking, multiple compression could be around the corner, especially as the Fed is raising interest rates or earnings growth is going to have to just explode while the PE ratio then kind of comes down naturally that way. I have no idea what's going to happen. Obviously, I can't predict the stock market, but it's very interesting to see the violent just rise in bond yields that we've experienced in the last call it two. or three months here. It's like it's just something is happening and I don't know what it is. It's very, very weird. Well, but the other thing is, when we talked about this in the Rich Habits Network just this week, is that the math says that 100% of the time after a midterm election year, the S&P 500 goes up on average 15% that year after the midterm, which is next year. So, yeah, I don't think anyone knows, and these are definitely some crazy times when you look at all

the juxtaposition of the bonds versus growth versus labor versus, you know, mortgage rates. It's just really hard to figure out. And that's why it's never been more important to be involved, get out there. Make sure you're just researching, join the Rich Habits Network so you can always be on top of what's really happening out there. Absolutely, Robert. Well, time to jump into our radar points. These are sort of a show and tell type vibe. I've got three. You've got three. I'll kick us off. I'm going to be talking about NVIDIA's largest stock buyback program in U.S. history, Elon building his second Silicon Valley across the Sun Belt, and obesity drugs now entering sort of round two,

more specifically focusing on keeping muscle mass while also losing fat, which just sounds like a miracle if you ask me. Robert, how do I gain muscle while losing fat, right? That'd be cool. GLP ones. Yeah, let's start with NVIDIA. NVIDIA's board just approved $150 billion increase. to their share repurchase program on Monday, bringing the total buyback authorization to $235 billion, which is more than Apple's record $110 billion back from May of 2024.

Now, this comes just four months after Nvidia's board already added $80 billion to the program. The timing comes up with record sales, $96 billion for the quarter ended in July, company guiding to 70% revenue growth in 2007 here. Jensen Wong called it a once-in-a-generation platform shift to AI. But the buyback lands alongside a growing secular finance concern people still have with NVIDIA. They disclose stakes slash investments in 13 public companies. And here we go, Robert, 229 private companies. Holy smokes. They're also partially guaranteeing up to 500 billion in data center financing for their own customers. They backstopped OpenAI's Ohio Data Center project directly

and hold $20 billion in long-term data center leases on their books that they plan to reassign to other companies. So you know what? That's cool. Invidias figured it out still. Five, six trillion. I'm a shareholder. I'm riding this wave.

Who am I to tell Jensen Wong, according to Trump, a very handsome man, how to spend his company's money. Rock and roll, Jensen. I'll be a shareholder until I'm in the grave. Rock and roll. let's talk Elon Musk's second Silicon Valley that he's building. So Elon owns a lot of these companies, right? SpaceX, Tesla, Neurolink, you know, that he's boring company. He's got a lot of different companies. Now his companies, he announced that a wave of megaprojects have taken place here in 2006 and he's chasing the states that give him the biggest tax breaks. Who would have thought a trillionaire is doing that, right? So we got SpaceX and Tesla's 16.8 billion. dollar terra fab chip campus taking place in Grimes County, Texas, one of the largest chip factories

in the world. They've got the $100 billion SpaceX rocket refueling buildout taking place in Louisiana. They've got Star Base expanding in Brownsville, Texas. They're going to, they're making its own city, Robert, have its own mayor, and the mayor of that city is going to be a SpaceX executive, which is hilarious. And they're building their third colossus, Data Center campus in Memphis. Now, states keep enabling him. They're like, we're rewriting the laws. We want to give you these tax breaks so you can bring all of this to our states. The bet is that jobs and the tax revenue, but the catch on this is that most of that hiring is not going to start until 2009. So you can get all mad about billionaires and trillionaires getting tax breaks.

Call your local representatives and state, why are you rewriting the laws to give it to them? That's my take on that one. My last one here, of course, is what I was alluding to, a little bit of muscle with the fat loss, GLP-1s. And they're coming out for round two, a new iteration of these GLP-1s, Robert. The benchmark for GLP-1s is this 20% body fat weight loss. You know, you're going to lose 20% of your weight by being on one of these GLP-1s, Eli-Lili, Novo Nordisk, Regeneron. They're now racing to a different type of a standard. How do we keep that body fat loss while also preserving the muscle? You know, we don't care about pounds because pounds could come from muscle loss too. Regeneron's muscle preserving add-on drug cut thigh muscle loss by two-thirds to three-quarters

versus semaglutide alone. Nova Nordisk's Kegri-Sema combo drove a 14% weight loss with less liver and pancreas loss specifically, which is good. Eli Lillies Reda-Trutide, 28% weight loss with patients reporting better daily mobility. This is a real shift in how these companies are going to market these drugs in the future, how they're prescribed, and how they're insured. Global GLP1 patents. This one's interesting, Robert. Here's the stat. Patents filed for GLP1s, right, up 28% in the last year as more and more companies are not just trying to get into the GLP1 race here, but saying here's why our GLP1 is a little bit different. It helps preserve your liver

in your pancreas or it helps do the thighs or the muscle, like they're trying to make them a little bit different. And I think that's important. I think your radar points were incredible today. And the two takeaways for me is, I believe this GLP1 category, and we've been talking about it for a long time, is a great place people should be focusing more on.

Everyone is chasing the AI trade. But there is a lot of money to be made in this GLP1 category coming forward. in the next few years. And then also I want to touch back on Vermillion Parish, Louisiana, where this other SpaceX factory is being built. Currently, the average wage in Vermillion Parish is $54,000 a year. But with the addition of this SpaceX factory, that is going to go up to $88,000 a year, almost double the average wage. And Robert, to that point, you know, we're talking about the O-Zempic, the GLP ones, OZ. E-E-M is the ticker symbol.

O-Z-E-M is the ticker symbol on the GLP-1 E-T-F. So go check that one out. I own it. Robert probably has some of it, too. I'm sure we've been talking about that one for a while inside their Rich Habits Network. And Eli Lilly, I'm up like 25, 28% on my Eli-Lilly position because they are the ones behind Reda-Trutide.

Red of True Tide's going crazy on the Internet. People loving that one recently. But anyway, over to your points, Robert. Yeah, great call-out. O-Z-E-M is a great ETF if you want to follow and be involved and invested in that sector. Some of the best companies everywhere are in there. Viking therapeutics.

I'll give a shout out to them. I really like that company as well. So I'm going to start out strong here. Ora Ring just delayed its IPO and it's not alone. Smart Ringmaker, Orra postponed its NASDAQ listing Tuesday due to uncertainty in the IPO market, despite what it called strong investor demand. The company was valued at $11 billion in last year's funding. round and was recently priced at $14 billion. So what's really happening and what does this mean?

I think it's pretty clear and simple. For me, in my opinion, there was a valuation pushback. Investors bulked at this aggressive pricing expectation of around $44 per share. External volatility with the rising bond yields and spiking oil prices also created some uncertainty. And even though they have strong fundamentals, I think all of this came together and they just had to come up. up with what do we do next and they decided to push back. I'm going to be keeping a close eye on this because I really like their technology and I think they will do great after the IPO as long as it's priced accordingly. My second radar point today is the U.S. Senate blocks the bill to limit stock trading by lawmakers. This is long overdue and kind of upsetting. The U.S. Senate on Wednesday

block legislation placing new restrictions on stock trading by Congress members as Democratic Democrats refused to provide enough votes to advance the measure towards passage, arguing that it falls short of a full ban. By a vote of 53 to 47, the Senate halted a Republican drive to open debate on the partisan bill, which was passed in July by the House of Representatives. And my third point today that I think is very important to cover is that Trump just launched the American.gov website, an AI concierge service from the federal government. The administration unveiled America.gov Tuesday, an AI-powered portal meant to be a single front door to federal services like passport renewal, Medicare enrollment, student loan status, campsite reservations, and all searchable in plain language via two AI agents. They've integrated GROC and Gemini. So you now have one front door for every single question Trump said, calling it, quote, a restoration of America's founding. promise. Airbnb co-founder Joe Gabbya, now heading the White House's National Design Studio,

is leading development with GSA providing the backbone. The ambition isn't new. Every administration since Clinton has tried a version of this, and the federal web footprint only grew. Version 1.0 launched Tuesday, with full integration still a matter of months out, but I checked it out. It looks really cool. I think it's a step in the right direction to give people the information they desire rather than getting it somewhere else or from headlines that might not be factual because all of this information is coming right from the federal offices so you know it's going to be accurate and not some made-up thing or some click-bady headline that you might have followed. Yeah, this is pretty cool. Yeah. This is pretty cool. They made it

very intuitive and easy, which is what I like so people don't get lost. We've seen for decades a lot of the government websites where you're trying to get something done is very, very difficult. I tried it yesterday, Austin. I had to do an update on my address. I went to the Florida government website, spent about 30 minutes, couldn't get it done. Then it kicked me out. And I gave up. So definitely a step in the right direction.

Yeah, Robert, you can totally see, I mean, the design elements on this, the guy that's doing the design, co-founder of Airbnb. Like, yeah, this looks like a fintech company. Listen, it's better than the crap that's been on the internet for 20 years and no one, you know, gave a crap about it. It's just, it's nuts. So cool for them to do that. I've not played around with it yet. I'm excited to dig in. I love the natural spoken language of using AI agents to say, hey, I want to update this or how do I do this or this is the problem I have? How do I solve it? And you said, Robert, I think you said it pulls together like 20 something thousand, you know, websites, government websites into one just workflow there. So I think that's, you know, It's great. The feedback, though, I wanted to share was on ORA ring. I think ORA is dead. I don't think it's a good anything. Here's why. I think they pulled their IPO because of the new Apple watch that Apple unveiled last week. It has the exact tracking, the exact same physical, everything that an ORA ring has, except it's an Apple watch with no subscription like that. Plus, ORA ring, how do you go from saying your round is 4X oversubscribed to, no, we're not going to IPO anymore? Like, no, if you're you actually had that type of demand and investors were actually that excited to invest in your company, then it sounds to me like you would actually IPO. And the last thing is, forerunner Ventures, an early investor in the company, has publicly said, yes, at the IPO, we are selling 100% of our position. Right. So an early investor in the company is saying,

I don't want anything to do with this after I get to sell. Pretty much, I'm going to sell the top and laugh at you guys on the way down. So for me, I think Ora Rings IPO is not a cool thing. I think they'll probably find themselves in a graveyard like a Fitbit does or has in the past. And it's just not looking good. I love that take. I think the biggest thing for me that's a hurdle and I'm not an owner of ORA Ring and I don't use it is the $5.99 cost per month. So many people. I went through when I was doing the research on this IPO.

So many people in so many threads just really hate that $6 a month. And I was like, wait a second. and it's so inexpensive, you would think people would not care, but it's really a big hang up for people. So we'll see how this all plays out. But I really like your take on that. Everybody, thanks so much for joining us on this week's episode of the Rich Habits Radar.

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