Sad Boyz - Gambling, But For Girls

Episode Date: April 24, 2026

Check out 150+ bonus episodes at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://patreon.com/sadboyz⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ✨find us everywhere✨ https://linktr.ee/sadboyzpod 🎬 CREW 🎬 Hosted by Jarvis Johnson and J...ordan Adika Produced & Edited by Jacob Skoda Produced by Anastasia Vigo Thumbnail design by @yungmcskrt Outro music by @prod.typhoon & @ysoblank 00:00:00 Inventing New Types of Guys 00:03:47 Pete Hegseth Pulp Fiction Prayer 00:12:45 Prediction Market Baddies 01:40:12 A Much-Needed Sequel 01:49:54 Info Wars & The Onion 01:53:04 Sad Boyz Nightz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Sadboys, a podcast about feelings and other things also. I'm Jarvis. I'm Jordan. Hey. Hey, man. You met him. Hey. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:00:09 What are you doing? Oh, who's this cool guy? What are you doing? I like him a lot more. That's my guy right there. I'm his guy. That's my freaking guy. This is how my old neighbor Bruce talk.
Starting point is 00:00:21 For real? Boys will be boys. That is really cool. He did, and he said, get on my motorcycle. Are they still making them? Guys like that? Yeah. I think they did.
Starting point is 00:00:30 died off. They just stayed up there was like a um I feel like like some sort of DNA um like anomaly we lost that phenotype yeah we unfortunately it died off like it was from like having asbestos in the drinking water or something it is cool that like every now and again we like create like a specimen yeah new bloke like uh we got gout gout now you know about gout he's uh he's this kid from um Australia uh he's breaking all of usan bolt's records that's so rude He's like 16 or he's 18 now, he's 18 now. But he's like breaking every record and it's crazy. Oh my God, he was born in 2007.
Starting point is 00:01:09 Yeah. That's really funny. Yeah. It does feel sometimes like if you are like a previous record holder and you just like blew everyone's mind, you were so incredible. And then someone else comes along and does it, you can't be resentful. Because like, well, that kind of is what I did. Where does family immigrate from? because his name's supposed to be like
Starting point is 00:01:32 Guat Guat but when they immigrated to Australia they missed they like typed it wrong at whatever their Ellis Island equivalent is and Sudan and yeah see look it was misspelled when officials by officials when his parents fled Sudan it's like well and because and now they were like trying to change it because it's like got the disease association
Starting point is 00:01:58 They misspelled it twice, like while writing it, they screwed it up twice in a row. Transliteration from Arabic. But anyway, I mean, shout out to this kid. He's killing the game. It's got to feel so weird to have, like, be trying to avoid protagonist syndrome, but you are the protagonist. It's kind of cool. It's a little bit like I saw a video of I Show Speed jumping with like Olympians. And they were all like pissed off.
Starting point is 00:02:22 It's so funny that to jump as high as you could. That gift given to that. That's truly like if Peter Parker just like went into esports or something. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, you have great power. You need to do great responsibility. Pass. I'd rather not.
Starting point is 00:02:36 I'd rather be internationally known. Is he a Twitch or is he a kick boy? He's on YouTube. His name in English is he shows speed. Yeah, man of speed. Man of Swift. It is funny that this guy is like the new fastest kid in the world. And then I show speed is like, he never said he was fast.
Starting point is 00:02:58 But he did say he shows speed. He shows. And he often does show speed, which I love that he keeps in the name. The only time I ever see speed anymore is him embarrassing athletes, and I don't know what, what are his streams? Like, is it only that? His streams of late, I don't know what he's up to this second, but he was doing like, speed goes to Africa. And then he does this go, he like goes through all these cities. Humiliates their local athlete.
Starting point is 00:03:22 And he's doing this like world poor of like, and I thought it was incredible because it's just like, the amount of place. planning, like thinking about getting streaming quality internet. Anywhere. Everywhere. Everywhere. Yeah, wild. I'm pretty sure he was just in WrestleMania. That tracks.
Starting point is 00:03:38 He traveled all the way to the nation of WrestleMania. I show speed smashes Logan Paul through a table after L.A. night, Usos get the win. I heard about this, but I haven't seen it. It's a clip of Pete Heggzeth, the secretary of war. The local clown Pete Hexsv, which there's people like calling him out on R-slash-military, is awesome. Well, yeah, he's a... Am I the only veteran that recognizes this guy's personality?
Starting point is 00:04:03 He's an Army weep. Like that's it. Yeah, he was in the military. He was in the military, but... This guy, this guy on the R-slash military, who's a real one apparently, he's like, let's unpack this. He's an infantry officer, but he didn't complete ranger school, airborne school, or air assault school.
Starting point is 00:04:19 And he was the side of the 101st. Did the cost, taxpayer cost of rebranding the Department of Defense to the Department of War? Crazy. defense to the department of offense. It's like, are we the baddies kind of mindset? Yeah, we put a skull instead of the eagle, and then we put a sniper rifle scope that's aiming at an innocent person.
Starting point is 00:04:38 I guess it's, in many ways, just more transparent, because it's not like, it's like, I'm defending against you while you're, like, doing regime change. And you're like, what? Ow, stop defending at me. On guard, I'm defending. Ow. Stop poking me with your sword. So the prayer is CSAR 2517, and it reads and pray with me, please.
Starting point is 00:04:57 The path of the downed aviator is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of camaraderie and duty, shepherd the loss through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to capture and destroy my brother. My. And you will know my call sign. is Sandy one when I lay my vengeance upon thee. And amen.
Starting point is 00:05:34 My brother. Now, now this guy is a highly religious and devout guy, so presumably anything he's going to be quoting is it comes from a reliable source. And it appears that people within the military told him about their special prayer. Well, that's the extra fucked up thing is that people in the military are seeing themselves as Samuel Jackson in Pulp Fiction. Samuel Jackson and Pulp Fiction is a assassin. He's a assassin, but he's also like a political radical. He's not an army guy.
Starting point is 00:06:07 It's like cops that have the Punisher logo. Exactly. He's not into the stuff you're into. He even says in this clip, I know this prayer because it's badass and it makes people scared before I kill them. And it's famously embellished. Of this, what's like a full minute speech.
Starting point is 00:06:24 a couple of lines are from the Bible. It's a script written by a loser. But it's not, it's just childish, dude. We may not be able to show this, but if we can, let's... At least for my own enrichment. I haven't seen Pulp Fiction in a minute. And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee.
Starting point is 00:06:50 Maybe history's most annoying man, by the way. Yeah. I watched his black cent interview. you again and it made my skin crawl. So if he had sent me something that I plug into my computer, I don't know if I would have ever hurt it. All right. Hey, download this. I don't know how to do that. All right, you know, so.
Starting point is 00:07:04 It is so surreal. Speaking of cringy. It's hard to watch him. It's hard to watch him. Yeah, I'm like a black guy. I'm like a black guy the way I don't know nothing. Too, I'm not that brother, brother, cousin. Take a shot every time. Jordan says
Starting point is 00:07:20 brother cousin. I had tried to listen to him talk before. Like someone's like, oh, he talks about this movie you really like and sends me something. I'm like, I can't. Unbearable. 30 seconds in. It's very hard to listen to him without just dying inside.
Starting point is 00:07:38 He has loud cousin energy. It's like not a comfortable kind of individual to be around. It's like. That being said, he writes great speeches for political figures. He's very helpful for the, for the, um, the czars of battle or whatever
Starting point is 00:07:51 the department is. The Lords of Venet. The um, the, um, uh, the Christmas Avengers. Yeah. That's fucked up. It's fucked up that he's essentially quoting our military and our military is like, we get excited to kill people and we say this little. And we say our little speech from a movie.
Starting point is 00:08:15 It's not a prayer. We only, the only thing we think about is the, the fun. It's like it's the, it's like one of the most quoted like the, like the, part before that speech is the most quoted thing from... It's on mugs. It's like, English, motherfucker, do you speak it? I always connected with that quote,
Starting point is 00:08:36 which is presumably from the Bible, I believe. What does Marcellus Wallace look like? What is... It was in... My brother. Marcellus 1314. I heard speculation that, like, somebody within, you know, his PR team is like
Starting point is 00:08:51 fucking with him and, like, doing that on purpose. But I think people are underestimating how many people have, like, like, how many people espouse the values of the Bible and have not read it, but also who are just media broken. Like, their brains are, like, poisoned by the media that's available to them. It's clavicular doing the American Psycho opening, like, because it's cool. Yeah. The guy that's cool.
Starting point is 00:09:15 Well, it's like, it's optics only. Yeah. You know, it's like, and that's, I think we undersell how much that matters to so many. I'm trying how it matters to us when we're like 14. Like before you kind of like have values or something and you're just like, yeah, I'll just quote a standup special I saw. That will be my joke that I'm doing. I don't understand it, but that's what the comedy is. It's how I got started.
Starting point is 00:09:40 It's Michael Scott doing the Chris Rock stand up, but like running our country, right? Yeah, and I'm getting slapped. Did you see that? You go freaking slapped again? Oh, Chris Rock. Mr. President. I thought you meant Michael Scott. Oh, Will Smith wound up his arm until there was like a little bit of steam coming out of his head.
Starting point is 00:10:01 He hit him in the chin and it flew off into the escrow. Kind of embarrassing. Everyone was like, you know, oh, Judd-A-Bettow. Oh, he could have killed him. It's like, no, it's just kind of embarrassing for Will Smith. Yep. He could have. Oh, why are you acting this?
Starting point is 00:10:17 He could have died. And act out where it's Stephen Colbert as Will Smith and Steve Carrell as Michael Scott or as Michael Scott as as Chris Rock and then and then they're doing it because they're both they're both correspondence of the Daily Show and it's one must dominate and one must dominate almost find strength who kind of a Colbert kind of mugged by by John Oliver in retrospect long term mugged a little bit yeah I mean I think Colbert's interesting I think he like won back some some edge with when like the Trump beef happened.
Starting point is 00:10:55 I think he's a better comic. Like, I think he's funnier, but there is a... I think he's a good interviewer. Unfortunately, I do think it poisons your legacy a little bit to do any late night at all.
Starting point is 00:11:07 But that's... But also, I just think he... Like, you have to remember, he is, like, devoutly Catholic. Yeah. And he just has, like, some bad, like, old man opinions that bum me out.
Starting point is 00:11:20 Like, letting out of the rings. I really didn't like his Zoron interview. Yeah. Yeah. Though... He quoted Ezekiel 515. He... It's 2517.
Starting point is 00:11:30 It's Marcelus Wallace 6.7. Of course. The... I am interested to see his... Lord of the Rings movies writing. Yeah. I'm saying highly. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:11:44 He's like... He likened it to... And I do respect this, I think. He likened it to when Bill Hader left S&L and he wrote for South Park for a season. That makes sense. And I'm like, it's just like, like work on something that you, you don't do it for the prestige, you don't do it for the mic. Like, I think it's funny because Colbert, like, he's got like a 68% hit rate with me where like most of the time.
Starting point is 00:12:08 And then he like, he goes into like super Catholic mode or like some of that, some of the old man kind of sensibilities come out. And I'm like, ah, you got to chill on this. That was simmering. I forgot almost for a second. It was like Pete Holmes a little bit, especially these days. He's kind of regretting. He's a little bit more trad now. Oh, shit.
Starting point is 00:12:27 At least in his phrasing, he's gone from like, I'm purely spiritual with no associations, kind of all the way around again to like a little bit more reference. But hey, you do you, Pete. Huh. He's kind of got Tucker's laugh. The new, the DLC that Tucker Carlson got, the new laugh that he chose to start doing.
Starting point is 00:12:44 He's so personable now or whatever. Speaking of personability. Oh, yeah, can you make things, sometimes I don't like stuff, but then, You know one thing that I didn't like, and I was like, we shouldn't do this anymore, is prediction markets. But then... Well, I was just, the reason I don't like prediction markets is because there's so many baddies out there that don't really have prediction markets being marketed to them.
Starting point is 00:13:11 They're often, they're oft forgotten about. I'm predicting that they're going to market to baddies. Market. Market. Yeah. I don't even love to them. It's just at Red Vair and the drunkest woman in the world came up to us. So I talking about how like we needed to like get into erotic sock play.
Starting point is 00:13:37 They were really interested in that. They talked to us about that quite a bit. Couldn't track anything they were saying. She asked me when I was in the military. I immediately said yes. This is your dream. Before my brain, they were like, you're in the military? Mm-hmm.
Starting point is 00:13:48 Yep. That was in the army police. And then... The British one. I was in the British Army police. Yeah, any follow-up questions you have? Sorry, it's the British one. No, you don't know.
Starting point is 00:13:56 It's the British one. But they think I've talked about that. And then I'm not getting either way, like, I have to tell you, you have to start doing this. I just learned about this. We only start doing this and just did the clock it for like a really long time. Oh, my God. I have a question about the clock it. Middle finger, index.
Starting point is 00:14:15 I feel like people do it with index. Yeah. I mean, I'm sure it depends on what your nails. With the middle? Which nail you want? I feel like I've seen it with both, but I actually don't know. Come. Right? Remember? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:14:27 Okay. That's from chainsaw man. Aki. Show me the thing. Okay, so there's, you know, Kalshi and Polly Market are like the two big prediction market companies. Yeah, they're the Coke and Pepsi of betting on everything and anything. And they are also rotting society the way that. Coke and Pepsi rot your teeth.
Starting point is 00:14:52 So, whoa, bars? Cali has, is it Cali Girlies? No way. No, no. Calci Girls. Couchy Girls. Oh, wait. Is it Calci Girlies? It's like the, um, when
Starting point is 00:15:04 when Mamala made her like, her like HQ 6,7 or whatever. Yeah. And then they immediately were like rebranded it and it was like 6, 8. Huge upset as Governor Gavin Newsom replaces social media.
Starting point is 00:15:20 I had a gasm when you were talking about Gavin. Do you think social media, oh, he should have get the Rizlet into his social media management. Oh, baby gronk. And Polly Market has Polly Baddies, and both of these accounts are just like sciops to get gals, to get girl bosses into prediction markets. For those who aren't familiar, we were talking about John Oliver earlier because we planned this episode and then last night, John Oliver, last week tonight had an episode about prediction market. So that's a good place to go for like the very basics. I wonder we got that idea. The way that these prediction markets work is they've essentially found a legal loophole to do betting on everything.
Starting point is 00:16:00 And this is a thing that has actually been written about for decades. It's written about, I think it was first coined in a book called The Wisdom of Crowds, that it was like merely a economic hypothetical at the time. and there were kind of pet prediction markets that existed. There's also the CFTC, which is meant to prevent this stuff from happening, but it's not enforced by the CFTC because, one, the CFTC isn't properly staffed for this. And then also Donald Trump Jr. is on the board of both companies. Yeah. Why would that be really?
Starting point is 00:16:43 For fun. But like, why would that change? Because he's like an economic genius. But he's... It's really funny. He's helping, I would think. In that last week tonight video, you can watch it on YouTube, they show a clip from an interview where the CEO of Cal She, I think,
Starting point is 00:17:06 is being asked, why is he a consultant? Why is Donald Trump Jr. a consultant? We have a lot of consultants. And he just says, we have a lot of consultants. And they're like, okay, but what does he do? Like, do you pay him? And, like, I mean, we have a lot of consultants, so. Yes, and one of them is Don't Trip Jr., and so I asked a question about it.
Starting point is 00:17:26 And we have a lot of consultants. Of course. It does remind me of, it reminds me of when someone doesn't want to lie under oath, and then they keep answering a sideways, like, question. Asked and answered. Yeah, and it's like, bro, like, we know what, like, the optics of this are worse than probably being straight up, if I'm honest. Yeah, but why?
Starting point is 00:17:45 You just look like a little. We need loser. Like, also the truth social company, parent company is getting into prediction markets as well. What is the name of chief, the Department of Defense guy, Henry Kissinger. Remember, I don't know if you guys remember this. Henry Kissinger was on the board of Theranos. Oh my God. I didn't know that.
Starting point is 00:18:07 Yeah, that's fun. He's dead as a don't know right? Yeah, no, he is. He just, he would have loved Kalshi. He would have loved it, dude. He would have loved betting on the outcome of war. He saw a Chris Rock got slapped and it killed him from shock. But so, you know, it's like, is this just for boys?
Starting point is 00:18:24 That's my question. Oh, yeah. So the other thing about this is that while you can bet on whether or not it's going to be sunny in New York today, you can bet on, you know, the words that someone's going to say in a press conference, you can bet on who's going to win elections and on the outcome of, you know, military conflicts. in like Ukraine, let's say, or whether or not, you know, we're going to abduct Nicholas Maduro, like all these things.
Starting point is 00:18:53 All these things are bedable. All these things have insiders. They all seem like a way to extract money from the every man who thinks that they're playing a fair like numbers game. But the most volume for the prediction market still happens in the sports betting space. And they run ads in the sports betting space. and anyone that says, like, sports betting has been heavily legislated for its entire history, and previously, like, most of it was happening in, like, Vegas and stuff.
Starting point is 00:19:26 But we started- Predatory market that can capitalize on people is- Yeah, like, even draft kings and shit, like, operate as a gambling, like, sports gambling, and so they are limited in where they can operate. And so I hear Calci and Polymer can come in with their little loophole. where they run ads where they say like the only legal sports betting in all 50 states
Starting point is 00:19:54 and but they can say it well so that's the thing so John Oliver calls us out in his piece where he talks about how they're talking out of both ends of their mouth because they'll run ads where they say they're betting and then they will then clarify that they mean betting in the sense that any financial investment is a bet T-shae. The
Starting point is 00:20:15 Gambit. The King's Gambit. So, I don't know if you've heard, but like, our economy's in the toilet. No one can get a job. But gas is worth more than ever. Doesn't that mean it's going on well? It's like the biggest number.
Starting point is 00:20:30 The gas in my tank has never been worth. I need to resell this car. It's going to be full of gas. Yeah, I got to sell this gas, dude, while the getting's good. It keeps going down on my way to go sell it. Oh, my God. I mean, and that just makes things better.
Starting point is 00:20:45 That helps. It feels, and I'm not an expert, it absolutely feels like we are, I'm not even close to an expert. I'm not even an amateur. I'm like a no nothing nobody, but. Yeah, we're nothing of all trades on this. To me, though, it does feel like every time I look at what experts are saying, the economy is being held up with like holograms and fake graphs and the... A wink and a nod in an elbow. And hype.
Starting point is 00:21:13 I learned more about the thing that we talked about last week with Allbirds, right? Yeah. So that Allbirds situation is actually even darker than you'd imagine in terms of the state of our economy. So the news last week was that Allbirds rebranded to AI compute and their stock rose 600%, right? So. Versus its former business position as a... Selling bad shoes. Sneeds to tech workers.
Starting point is 00:21:42 And so what actually happened is that their investor, they have an investor who is hedging with like multiple companies where he's doing these deals that are like, I'm going to promise you or I'm going to offer you $50 million. You get $5 million up front and I can pull away the other $45 million unless certain conditions are met. And then I get priority option to buy at a certain stock price. Oh, so. So essentially he's investing in like 10 different companies, seeing what pops, and then covering the spread essentially on the rest of the rest of the investments. And so it really feels like a market that runs on hype. But the only problem is a male-dominated field, baby? Too many men in this in this betting space.
Starting point is 00:22:38 So too much of the Kalshi and pop. All we market transaction volume is happening with men and sports betting. So the solution is to stop gambling. What's that? Sorry, no, get women into gambling. Yes. Yeah, we got to get chicks in. We're kind of a progressive show.
Starting point is 00:22:56 I don't want to speak to everyone. I think broads are just as cool as the boys. These chicks are just as good as the fellas, frankly. It's like, you know. They're just like a smaller boy, you know what I mean? Like in the 90s when it was like, oh, Gillette only makes razors for boys. I can't use that.
Starting point is 00:23:14 It's blue. I got a pink one. A razor just for me. Yeah, but it's softer. And then like you see like a dollar signs in my eyes. As I hand you the the shick leg razor for ladies' legs. The pretty, the pritifier. But now we all know.
Starting point is 00:23:33 We've all learned and grown. And it's girl power. To the top, baby. let's girl boss this they went to college they got more knowledge so let's watch some of this content women have been making a little more money on the dollar these days and it's time to lose it all to the slots baby
Starting point is 00:23:52 they've been getting a little smirk frankly it's time we gamble it away I think we steal that money back it's Ocean's 11 but it's stealing all the money that women make boom do do do it I was just walking into a woman's house and taking her money I'm leaving. Kalshi and Polly Market
Starting point is 00:24:11 have launched massive campaigns targeting women. Both of them have opened their own accounts. Oh my God. To market specifically towards women. Taylor Swift right in the center of the banner. I was going to say, take a look at this banner.
Starting point is 00:24:27 Oh, my God. I mean, it's called the funniest thing it could be called. Cali Girls. What do women love. And then, by the way, it is like the most generic things you could possibly imagine. and then Taylor Swift in the middle. Yeah, why does you say television?
Starting point is 00:24:40 Like I... Television. I would understand it better if it was like Bachelorette or something like that. What's hiding behind the logo? Boxic. Music. I was like, you think, more generic. No, but I just, it's so funny.
Starting point is 00:24:59 Like, only women like television and music. Yeah, they're kind of in art. Is this... Okay, guys. Is this... supported actually by cali this is an official account from cali this is one of calshis like they have kind of been doing the throw spaghetti at the wall shotgun approach for all of these like little subcategories because calci sports is something that makes a lot more sense for it's more aligned
Starting point is 00:25:27 that is also a huge revenue driver and so they post a lot more sports clips and content and things that make sense but very clearly it's like what what are girls into television and Taylor's Whip? Yeah, I guess this is how you do it if you do just see people as cattle. And this is the best approach. So there's some new news developments, but first let's set the stage. Let's look at this Kalshi Girl Starter Pack. Movies.
Starting point is 00:25:50 Okay. I'm 15. What do I think women are? Pomeranian. Okay. First of all, that looks like your dog. Excuse you. Girl, are you coming to lunch?
Starting point is 00:26:01 That's me to you, Anastasia. I'm going to be 15 minutes late making a few. trades on Kalshi. Why are you so bad at planning? Why are you doing trades? That's like not a thing that could make you late. It's also not a huge amount of time to be late if you'll do. Like in that,
Starting point is 00:26:19 I'm going to be like, I'm a little late. It's not 15 minutes of Kalshi. I'm in traffic or something. Yeah, I'm actually driving right now, but I have 53 notifications on my Kalshi app. So I actually need to look at those while I'm driving.
Starting point is 00:26:32 I'm bidding on if Van Kleefe bracelets, Pomeranians, and Macha is up. And plant. Oh, and Road Beauty, the Haley Bieber skincare brand. Doesn't this literally, it feels like a resentful in-cell meme about just like, you know what, the stupid girls, they don't get video games. They like, they like a hoodie. They love a hoodie that says, oh, it's cropped. Sorry, it's cropped for the ladies.
Starting point is 00:26:55 Of course, that's right. And they love the Billboard Hot 100. Yeah, it was cropped by the paint tool. Yeah, it looks almost, hmm. Yeah, it's got no back. Okay, so let's look at these. bids that this is why you're late Anastasia you were betting on who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey's wedding uh-huh you were bidding on who will be a bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelsey and Taylor Swift I think I know
Starting point is 00:27:19 who you think of me wow we should insider trading wait but I saw a clip where uh one of the CEOs I can't remember which one they're interchangeable to me said they're looking out for insider trading because like, you know, if you work on something, you could just tell everyone. And then when you tell everyone, they know. Right. They call, they're like, that's why these are information markets. Because actually the information, there's a financial incentive to put the insider information into the market.
Starting point is 00:27:56 So yes, you are insider trading. And yes, you were making money hand over fist and stealing that from people who don't have the information that you do. But eventually, that. the line will move and it will be reflective of the truth. And it's actually good, I guess is my point. And it's actually good because I made money on each of those transactions.
Starting point is 00:28:13 Goodbye. It really does feel like Taylor Swift is the only woman they've heard about. Oh, for sure. Taylor's wedding, Taylor Swift music. This is Christine Aguilier actually predicted this, speaking of prediction markets, when she sang her song, What a girl wants, what a girl needs.
Starting point is 00:28:32 Prediction markets will set me. financially free. Do they think they're brat? Oh my God, they all be in brad. Like slightly more blue. Yeah. It's like blue brat, but also brat was so long. It was like a hundred years ago.
Starting point is 00:28:51 It's like a color combination. It's disgusting. And the great thing is it only exists in Photoshop. Yeah, this has never been printed. They keep getting legitimized by like Bloomberg, by CNN. Yeah, because they're taking, because CNN and like these major news networks are taking their money because this is an opportunity where there's a ton of investor interest and there's a ton of like liquidity. And so there's a ton of advertiser money going around. And they're like, why not?
Starting point is 00:29:28 So on CNN they're showing like on the ticker like who's going to be the next pope like 18? percent chance is this person or whatever. He's from Chicago? Nobody would have guessed that. You could have made a lot of money on that as a swing. Remember to Polly Market real quick because I want to point out their handle is insane. PolyBaddies? The color for girls.
Starting point is 00:29:48 It's pink. In that Atlantic article, they're like, do not Google that because you'll find a different... Yeah, Polly Batties is I want polyamorous bad ladies in my chat. Polybodies. I mean, it's great branding for that. How was this not taken? So this one, this one,
Starting point is 00:30:06 they not only paid the $1,000 plus for the gold check, but they're also linked in the polymarket network. So that is like verification. You know what, Girls Love, I just remembered, is incredibly low-rise profile pictures for a professional brand. But it's pink.
Starting point is 00:30:21 In fairness to them, Twitter just does that. I think that X is so broken, you like can't do it. Okay, Polly Badi rules. So this is from Mean Girls. Wait, can you scroll up real quick? So in September, Polly Badi's created their account.
Starting point is 00:30:44 And then in October, Kalshi Girls, because they're like, we got it. We're playing catch up. And then they both pinned tweets from October. They're like cribbing off each other's homework. Yeah. And then, of course, this is, is that the burn book? Yeah. Mean girls.
Starting point is 00:31:01 You know what women like? You heard about this movie? It's the only, it's like mean girls and Taylor Swift. Well, the name girl, girl is it? So it's for girls. Okay, explaining the hype to the girlies. We went from a few prediction market super cycle tweets to badges flying everywhere. The energy is crazy.
Starting point is 00:31:16 And as a certified poly baddie, I love seeing more women joining the space. But with new faces come new noise and sometimes unnecessary bullying. To the bettas or to calci? We're all still new here. What the hell is that one on the right there? The bloke up with zero. I don't know. The fuck is that.
Starting point is 00:31:36 Zero. Also, don't include them if it's zero. That's mean. The biggest volumes, still traded by TradFi veterans. That's traditional finance, but they tried to make it sound. Oh, wow. Oh, they're doing like, it's like a counterculture thing. Yeah, because they do, like, defyized finance, I think.
Starting point is 00:31:54 Oh, my God. Jordan, they're going to love this. The logo, the mysterious logo. go with zero, melee markets. What? Mele. And it got zero? It got zero.
Starting point is 00:32:08 Oh, it's loading. It doesn't exist, I guess. You don't need a finance degree to have a voice. Well, that much is obvious. Yeah, same with sports gambling. What are you talking about? When I started, I wasn't trading. I was researching, observing, and learning.
Starting point is 00:32:20 Even now, my volume is small. This is so funny because it's like everything in the world, I feel has these exclusionary vernacular. It's like I could swap these out for synonyms that are like everyday words and it would make a lot more sense but in order to sound like you're in the in group you have to talk
Starting point is 00:32:41 about tradfi volume. My oh my edge is curiously they're just talking about their competitive edge but but you'll see that it's like I look at my volume as in my trading volume as in how much I'm how much I'm how many transactions I'm doing
Starting point is 00:32:56 recording Mm-mm-mm. Sound speed. That's how you know I know what I'm doing. Polybatties build, not gatekeep. Who wants to identify as a polybattie? It's sickening to me. Literally who.
Starting point is 00:33:10 Sorry, it's actually zero, right? Like, it sometimes feels naive or hyperbolic to be like, well, who the hell would even want this? Who the hell would watch this shitty movie? It's like, a lot of people just don't care. That I cannot believe there is a single human, being that would want to identify this way. I just don't believe it.
Starting point is 00:33:30 This reminds me of something I encountered in a day job I had that I hated. It's the girl boss thing where it's like, I need to get mine. I want to make money. Girls, it's actually feminism to get cash, that kind of thing. And there is a culture where this works. It's advertising. It's co-opting something, which, is like there's a very real patriarchal thing, which has kept, it has oppressed women and kept
Starting point is 00:34:03 women down, right? Especially financially. Especially financially. Like women couldn't have credit cards in the 80s. Right. And or like get loans and stuff. Yeah. And like that type of thing, leveraging that for your trading platform is I feel inherently
Starting point is 00:34:20 predatory because it's saying like you could do it for any marginalized group and saying here's how we're gonna pull ourselves up by our bootstraps, and it's by gambling. Because like when this is just gambling, and you know that it's just gambling, and you know that everyone on these prediction market sites lose, there are 2 million traders on these prediction markets, and like 700 of them are making money.
Starting point is 00:34:48 One of the things that's really predatory about what we're talking about, like re-utilizing and co-opting language that's actually like supposedly could have could be progressive or as associated with progressive ideas is that you get to inject your it's just a predatory gambling process but you get to inject it with a little bit of counterculture aesthetics and then it sounds like it's altruistic like yeah we're a sports betting website maybe we got a little to that of that to the side but it's a fucking thing guys there's an affordability crisis and you just start saying keywords until people like yeah you're right this could be my way out of it well no because it's like it's a pink gun
Starting point is 00:35:25 A lot of the clips from the higher-ups at these companies are just completely like egg on my face. I can't believe you said that. One of them is, and this was in the journal, everything as well, is, oh, you're struggling with medical debt. You can bet against certain clinical trials, succeeding or failing, and then you can hedge against the horrific medical debt you're going to go into from the treatments that you need. And that's a working society. And they claim that companies and the government will see the popularity of something and actually go with it because so many people are betting on it. It's kind of like a hot fix for the meritocracy where like so much is not a meritocracy, obviously, but we were promised that it would be as children. And this is almost like it's like a sloppy patch, like a day one like, oh shit, version 1.01.
Starting point is 00:36:19 Now you can literally just bet on anything and so if something feels like it's luck It isn't anymore of the medical debt thing is bad bad on it and now it's fixed it's it's like the The thing about gambling that so that like allows it to be so predatory is it like praise on this like natural hubris this this Feeling that you understand something more than you do and if you ever have a win a it could be the worst thing that happens to you because it could make you think that you're actually smarter than you are. The real reason that day trading, no one makes money, day trading, and I'm speaking in generalities because the vast majority, this is a 99.9% situation.
Starting point is 00:37:09 The reason that the vast majority of day traders and the vast majority of prediction market people don't make any money is because the actual people that you're competing against have dedicated resources, you're competing with people with way more resources and information than you. They should win.
Starting point is 00:37:27 It is completely stacked against you and you are... David and Goliath is a story because you didn't expect David to win. 99, 99 times
Starting point is 00:37:40 out of 1,000, Goliath beats Dave. He stops her. Well, that's the thing that systems game. And so that's what I mean is that all of these people, we show you, David, I could be fucking up David versus Goliath,
Starting point is 00:37:54 but I think you know what I mean collectively. But like, but basically what they're doing is they're showing you David versus Goliath and you're like, look at that. The little guy took on the big thing and they won. But that's the selection bias propaganda that we show you so that two million Davids can go lose to Goliaths and then 700 David's win. And then we don't care about those. 700 Davids that won because we just had 1.99 million Goliaths just pay us their entire and get
Starting point is 00:38:25 addicted. It's not a very interesting myth. Like, David versus Goliath, but David had a gun. David, or it's like, it's the myth of the guy that went to work 40 hours a week and went home and never did anything bad and always kind of just did his thing. Wow. And it's like, ooh, that wasn't really, that didn't really compel me in any way. I don't want to do that one. Don't you just want to be like somebody who doesn't.
Starting point is 00:38:48 everything the right way. I mean, it's a good reflection of how the David and Goliath myth is boiled down into the bit where he's epic as opposed to the power he spends the rest of his life with the burden of the fact that he achieved one big thing. That's like the essence of that story, which would be winning once and then it burdening you for the rest of your life, smoking two cigarettes. Hey, but all you need is one big win. Also, to be like an expert marksman, you've got to hit him fucking in the eye, bro, with your slingshot.
Starting point is 00:39:14 Isn't that the thing? I don't know. Yeah, yeah. He's really good with it. Yeah, I'm like, not everybody is, it's like looking at the Olympic archery and being like, I could do that. I just hit the middle. Or like looking at that Turkish guy who's like a really good shot with the naked eye. And every other person in that entire like field uses like terminator, like Robocop.
Starting point is 00:39:34 I'm watching that and being like, oh, I guess I'll go to the Olympics and shoot like that. We could all do it. One great example of this is there's this guy named Benjamin who does these like videos about like. awful Wall Street Betts losses because it reminds me of Wall Street Betts because Wall Street Betts was like it's the place that the game stop stock thing happened but most of the stuff on there is people creating like easy to follow arguments for an investing thing but leaving out something extremely major because they don't actually understand the the markets that they're in and then losing a bunch of money and in one instance that
Starting point is 00:40:14 roaring kitty guy was had a well-reasoned thing about GameStop, but it was not to be crazy gains. It was to be like marginal gains. And then it became a meme. And then he made like tens of millions of dollars. But then it's kind of cooked people's brains because now they think that like everything is going to be the next GameStop. Same with like AMC. It's like these businesses that are bad, but people are speculating on bad businesses. And so it's like all birds again. It's like this thing will continue and the people with the information are going to be the people that win and the retail investors like typically how you refer to like people like this is going to be the one holding the bag. And so this creator
Starting point is 00:40:54 Benjamin is like I watched a bunch of his videos. He is like pretty intelligent about finance and talks about these people, their psychology, how they lose all their money and how you get into this headspace of, you know, thinking you're bigger than your britches and stuff. And he just posted on his Patreon that he lost all his money. And he posted a video where he's like, yeah, where basically I, at least his, his, his like entire savings. He kind of talked about it as this like cautionary tale of trading as an individual, the psychology, you like start getting high on your own supply and you take risks that if,
Starting point is 00:41:36 if you were at a firm, they would like stop you from doing that. But because you're an individual, he just like ended up doing stupid stuff. off irrationally, even though he knew it was bad. It's like, uh, Goku beating Freezer is like so unlikely that then in the next arc he should have been like, I'm not going to fight again. I already got away with one victory. There's no way I'm going to get any stronger. I'm not the protagonist anymore.
Starting point is 00:41:58 Or even the thing is the reason that we know Goku's name is because we saw the guy who did all that stuff. Yes. And not the millions of people in that show who just died. Yeah. It's like watching that and going like, Wow, it seems like Freezer's easy to beat. That must be what was the result of that.
Starting point is 00:42:18 It's like Master Roshi being like, and I'm still that dude. There's actually a great movie about this called Wall Street. And a sequel with Shail Abuff. No, stop it. It's the Dunning Kruger thing of like, I watch sports all the time. I think I know. I'm pretty smart. I watch sports all the time.
Starting point is 00:42:37 I know that Steph Curry is going to get over 21 points tonight. And then I also know that, you know, this. player's going to get this many assists. So why don't I just parlay those things together? And you don't think about the probability compounding and how when you add those, like, that's why parlayers are like a huge money sink is because, yes, you can win big, but the reason you can win big is the odds are astronomically large that you lose. And the stakes for losing is so immediate.
Starting point is 00:43:04 Like, like I genuinely thought to myself, yeah, I'm actually really good at melee. And I think there could be something here. I go to one tour and I get fucking schooled. And the lesson I'm taking from that is like, oh, well, thank God I didn't put all of my savings on this. I got to learn I wasn't good enough with no stakes. I had that with whenever I would watch like smash tournaments and wager Twitchbits. Oh, yeah, yeah. And it would be like.
Starting point is 00:43:31 The believers. Or whatever they're called points or whatever. And- Bit or at least at one point. Yeah, or something. It's not real money because I think Twitch bits are real money. So this was just fake currency. It's like it's a thing you make up because I remember when I ran predictions
Starting point is 00:43:43 There was another you can make it up so so it's like because the bits I think you can buy some or they just but you also get them with time Yeah, but this is like fake currency and I would like earn money Making my my bets and then of course some Unlikely event would happen and I would bet with the majority and I would lose it all you see this all the time where it's like Someone's gonna place a big bet on a 99% percent thing, but a one in 100 chance that you lose everything is not worth the risk for the marginal gain. And so the thing with this Benjamin guy, like losing his money, it's like, he's a smart guy,
Starting point is 00:44:22 but he, I was reading something about how, like, his models are really good. But the issue is you model reality, you, and then that, you become, like, normalized to that, and then you want for more, and then you have to start thinking outside of reality. And the issue is you're breaking away from these things that model what realistically can happen. The only solution would be to make the money and then never, ever, ever, ever touch the markets over again. And the way the bin, or just like investing in like, like low yield, like slow, boring investments that are just not flashy or exciting. It's much more exciting to find the next big thing. You become the coach.
Starting point is 00:45:02 You can't play anymore. Your knees are bad. Like, you're not, it's fine. But the last thing I was going to say about that before we go into more of these. baddies is gambling is addictive because it plays on these human like predilections for it plays on human psychology in a very insidious way and we know that people can get addicted to it and it can ruin lives and that's why it shouldn't be everywhere it shouldn't be it should be sequestered because it's like the island that makes you old it's like the app that
Starting point is 00:45:38 steal that like makes you bankrupt yeah and it is people are weird about i think specifically money like like actual currency in a uh uh people's relationship with currency is for some reason like different than their relationship with any other material thing where well it's mine as though money is not like just part of a larger system it's just a it's uh it's uh just a just a as much of like riding a chokebo in vital fantasy. It's just a system. It's just an element. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:46:13 And people treat it like it's like a tool. Well, but the money was was never yours, really. Yeah. It's the points that are being distributed. In fact, like, it's like, do, I feel like a lot of those people get radicalized by like watching their taxes be taken out of their paycheck or having to pay taxes and then be like, I had this and now I'm losing it. And it just hurts to lose anything.
Starting point is 00:46:37 There must be something wrong here. It hurts psychologically so much more to lose than it does to gain by like a large factor. And then they're like, it's like, I think the natural human instinct to be like, well, just don't take away my ability to bet on sports. Just don't bet on sports if you don't win. But I am a temporarily embarrassed multimillionaire. And I need to simply unlock my true potential, which is having a billion dollars. And I will gladly make a skin lamp out of every.
Starting point is 00:47:08 one else so that I can get that. We made a video about these prediction markets a while back. The house always wins. If you're too good at predicting if you're winning too much, they actually just kick you off their ass. They do that for sports betting. I wonder if they do it for prediction markets.
Starting point is 00:47:25 I don't know. I will say that that's documented for all the major sports betting apps. For prediction markets, I actually don't know. But I do know that like the insider trading thing should spook you about anything. I saw that you could bet on some euphoria stuff.
Starting point is 00:47:40 Yes. And I'm like, bro, like, that show has writers. It's already been filmed. That show has already been filmed in screen. There are hundreds of people who've seen all the plot elements. There's a best boy grip who. Exactly. One of my favorite roles in the credits.
Starting point is 00:47:56 And you guys, I'm actually into a girl group. Have you checked out that version of the service? It's pink. Like you guys have pointed out before, a lot of these platforms are advertising that as a feature. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. It's like you know this because you were a best boy grip, so no, why not make some money off of me?
Starting point is 00:48:13 And I want to create the market where the best boy grip is able to spoil who dies in the Uphoray season three. The best boy should be allowed to chew. I do think there's something like maybe it's more just like an emotionally predatory practice or like it's adding demonic vibes into the world or something. But I do think there's something very sad about taking advantage of people's trust in systems, especially right now, where a lot like a lot of, like a lot of. of people, we expect people to be cynical enough to see this and go like, I'm not fucking doing that, you crazy. But really, genuinely, most of the time, if somebody sees that something is big and they see that it's a big thing with lots of money in it and lots of people in it and it employs lots of people, that for a lot of people legitimizes it for us.
Starting point is 00:48:54 No, I mean, it's like you, I feel like, yeah, I have to know the amount of extra information I have to, I have to have to have in order to be distrustful of something. The average person doesn't have. Well, they would go like, well, there's laws about sports gambling. Because surely they would kick in. If this wasn't safe, the government would help us. But it's like, but then the government is also putting out Melania coin. And then you're like, hmm.
Starting point is 00:49:16 And it's like quite, it's like, no, it's not really the government, but then it's like weird. It's close. The government would do something good. And then there's also all of the Trump associated crypto stuff. But at least you made that really good movie. Oh my God, dude. The soundtrack impeccable. I, so we have some baddie content, right?
Starting point is 00:49:36 Hell yeah. That's what we call the show, dude. Do we really want to quick want to look at a couple points on this, polybeddy oath? Of course. Let's look at the unofficial polybadi oath. I will trade or learn at my own pace. I will not shame others for doing the same. I will understand that we're early and that being early means building not gatekeeping.
Starting point is 00:50:05 Are you a way? I will remember that bringing new people in is just as valuable as winning a trade. That's not true. I want money. I don't believe it for a second. No one's going to sign that oath. Is this? What? That doesn't make, that doesn't add up. I will keep the vibes high and the odds honest. That's not true. It's a platform with
Starting point is 00:50:24 insider trading as a feature. It's fucking cringe. I am a woman. I am always right. That one's interesting. This was written by a man. I am a J.G.B.T. I am a baddie. That's who I am. Crooking cringe. Yikes.
Starting point is 00:50:40 Oh, man. Oh, brother. What is that? I almost spat. Wait, can we look at that mural? Yeah, I want to see this is in there. The Avengers of Baddies. Is this real?
Starting point is 00:50:51 No. Like, what the... There's no way, right? It's not even mapped properly. No, no, no. It's, it's, uh... Why did they do such a bad job? Is that the CEO of Polly Market?
Starting point is 00:51:01 Is that the, like... Is that like a professionally taken photo that's supposed to look like not a professionally taking photo of the CEO of Polly Market looking at Pollymarket on the... I've run that. Oh, it is the CEO of Pollymarket. Yeah. He's wearing a very CEO fit. The thing I think about a lot, and it's a thing I struggle with because I would want, I want a billion dollars, but I don't want it.
Starting point is 00:51:24 You know what I mean? Yeah. Because like my brain's wired to want money to never want for anything in my life, but then I know that I don't actually want to do the labor theft that's involved with. with doing that. More that nonsense. And so, and so I see those guys and I'm like, man,
Starting point is 00:51:41 that is something I thought I wanted. And so there's a, there's a shell of myself that's jealous. Does that make sense? But it's that you used to, you didn't realize you were like a Sith. But you're like, I like these lightsabers and the cloaks are cool.
Starting point is 00:51:57 What are you guys? Oh. But here's the thing, like the reason why that's a plot point in Star Wars, where Luke is like, do I want to be to like go to the dark side? I love my daddy. It's like I love my daddy. I don't know my daddy, but I want to know him.
Starting point is 00:52:16 And I want my daddy love. I want to see what's under his hell of it. But it's because it's so easy. Like I just think it's really easy to get pulled. We all have it inherently inside of us to go one way or the other, right? I have a high midi-chlorian count. You have a low-metichlorian count, I bet. Yeah, so one of the leading
Starting point is 00:52:38 baddy influencers in this space is someone who officially works with Polymarket. That's weird. What are the arts? Named Evie. And she's worked with Polymarket for a long time. She teaches women how to do this stuff. But now...
Starting point is 00:52:56 How to open their computer and, you know, do computer. But now... She's starting her own prediction market. Dude, my day once. Trading internet's viral moment. Oh, my God. Tricia Pettis has become the face of, it's like, it's like a, it's like Taylor Swift.
Starting point is 00:53:18 You know what I mean? It's like an icon of a certain generation. What are you girls like again? And also this is so, this is so, okay, can you hit back real quick? I'm just going to call out a little pick-me-girl boss moment. So it's a, the zero X is like a, like a memory address. Oh. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:37 So it's, yeah. Cool. That's badass. So linking to Polly Market, huh? Well, you got to get your. I think she's still working with them. Her platform's only in beta right now. What is her writer?
Starting point is 00:53:52 Her banner say. It's, I'm, your favorite ginger in tech, I am a serious founder. Oh, I did. Graphic. No, because it's like, she's a serious founder, but she's also a small bean. I still think that aesthetic can be cute and quirky, but like when you're leveraging what you're leveraging here, like doing it in tech and prediction markets, I'm like, pick a struggle. Yeah. This is not your realm.
Starting point is 00:54:15 Yeah. At the risk of cringing a lot, I want to watch POV 2026 Y Combinator founder application video. And then I want to watch the video to the left, which I am assuming that she bought a Mac Mini to do. open claw AI automation stuff. That's my, that's my theory. So I'm attempting to clock it here. So I expect to cringe and then I expect to open claw. Oh, this isn't my money.
Starting point is 00:54:39 You're good. Oh, and she's wearing a quality leering center hoodie merch. That is Nick Shirley merch. That's the in, um, was it Minnesota? No. Oh. Yeah, it was the Tim, Tim Walts, right? So in Minnesota, it was the Somali, like, um,
Starting point is 00:54:58 childcare centers that he was trying to expose. That he was trying to expose. One of them misspelled learning on their sign and he made this merch with 1,800 fraud on it. And so I feel like wearing this is very much a...
Starting point is 00:55:14 It almost doesn't feel contiguous with the brand she's doing. It's kind of unrelated. Yeah, well, it's a... It's a posture. It's like, don't worry, I'm not one of those wokeies. I'm actually like the secretly
Starting point is 00:55:27 extremely conservative text. Yeah, she's, oh, you know what it is? It's like the inverse equivalent of like the exact same personality type, except they're wearing keep calm and gangster rap and it's got like biggie on it or something. You're like, oh, I get it. You're also really cool. It's got a, it's got like keep calm and wag me as in we are going to make it like a thing that the crypto investors say. And it's, it's a Sam Bankman Friede wearing it. I have to assume her, her, her, the MacMenies are employee because with OpenClaw, you no longer need people.
Starting point is 00:56:05 You can simply have AI agents be your employees. You can siphon their blood. Love that. Hi, I'm Callum. I'm Evie, and this is my co-founder, Richard. Hi. I'm Richard. And this is our application for the 2006 spring bat. I built a prediction market on live streaming.
Starting point is 00:56:20 We did. That's right. We're going to take over the world. Shut up, Richard. Okay, sorry, what's the... What is this? I don't know what I just saw. We got to watch the Mac Mini video next.
Starting point is 00:56:34 I need one to explain what just happened. So imagine a world where your entire community is brainbroken tech people. That was sketch comedy for them. Where it's like, oh, this is this. I've created an AI co-founder and he's secretly evil, but I'm trying to stop him from saying it. And he's threatening Y Combinator. let me in or else I will hack you. And she's like...
Starting point is 00:57:03 It requires a lot of... Fuck. It feels similar to like a Minion's movie. It feels similar to Improv 1. Yeah. It feels like a recent family guy. A fully baked idea that only exists in their head. They don't do any of the work to bring you up to speed with where they're at.
Starting point is 00:57:25 That literally felt like I was watching a previously on for season 9. of a show. Yeah. And I'm like, who that was Dune? All right. Let's see if, let's see if I clocked.
Starting point is 00:57:33 I do the thing. You know what that means? Richard is getting an upgrade. I already set an EC2, but unfortunately blocks a lot of features for Richard. So Richard got an upgrade. Let's set this baby up. When you see a Mac Mini and you're talking about AI,
Starting point is 00:57:45 that's your open clotting. People talk about like the Mac Mini is like, that's my virtual employee. And that's how you're supposed to treat it. I just, I'm just. I know. It's a whole new world.
Starting point is 00:57:53 There's so much about what she's doing that feels like, it's just key. words, especially the Nick Shirley hoodie. Yeah. It's just, I'm like, your joke is like, what if your computer is your friend? But also, keep an eye out for these foreigners. Oh, that's just a side interest. No, that's just a side thing.
Starting point is 00:58:14 That's like if I was wearing a community shirt. Right. It's exactly like, it's just merch. That's so. It's merch. Oh, fucking whatever, man. Yeah. I mean, yeah, you're there.
Starting point is 00:58:22 You're there. No, you're there. Yeah, absolutely. It literally can't pair with my Logitechette wireless mouse, so I'm going to best by right now. Why can't you pair it? That can't be right. Said it up a claw bot is seriously an IQ test.
Starting point is 00:58:36 At the office. Mom, I'm employed. We are so rich. This is quirky, like me at the computer and it's a dog. This is tough. This is like millennial core. I mean, it's our fault. Yeah, I did this.
Starting point is 00:58:50 We did this to manually zooming in during a recording. Dude, I see myself in this so bad. Like, if I took the wrong exit. Oh, dude. But we got caught because there wasn't also fascist coding related to everything. It wasn't like a bunch of wearing a hoodie that says like, no Negroes now or something. Yeah, that's a good point. I do wonder, like, if I was coming up in this time, if I would have had the same.
Starting point is 00:59:13 Because I think that a lot of tech for me was very optimistic. Yes. And I am an optimistic person. but I became very pessimistic about how tech was being applied. Oh, we would, I think we would talk, and a lot of people in the space would, and I'm sure still do. You talk about traditional offices and traditional work in an oppositional way. Like, this is, that world's corporate, that world isn't trying to achieve anything. We're going to ping pong table.
Starting point is 00:59:44 We're hanging out, dude. We're actually hanging out. We've almost hired a black woman. Hell yeah. And we're really thinking about it. And guess what? We did, but she's our facility's manager. She's not really working out.
Starting point is 00:59:55 We gave her a job that's different. Yes, don't worry. She makes the least amount of money on our team. It does the most amount of work. And don't worry, every person of color is in a similar role. Don't worry. Except one. This guy is...
Starting point is 01:00:06 It's me and Erica Baker. That's true. New CTO. It is my cousin's friend's frat brothers party organizer. He is 15 years old and does not have a computer. The good news is the only people like that were the, if you were grandfathered early. I guess we're not supposed to use that term anymore.
Starting point is 01:00:25 If you were legacy. Oh. I think because it's about slavery. Always gets in there, doesn't it? I think it has to do with like about whether or not. It's like one drop rule stuff. Dude,
Starting point is 01:00:36 slave owners were so obsessed with terminology. I'm, yeah. It's like, it's always a process of like, yeah. It's like obviously. Learning about our language.
Starting point is 01:00:45 Yeah, learning about our language, understanding what things. I'm not like villainizing anyone who says grandfathered in. And I think, It's one of those things that's intuitive as something else, right? It's like, yeah, like a grandfather because it's old, isn't you?
Starting point is 01:00:58 Exactly. And then I think the origin just happens to be post-Civil War southern United States, roughly 1895, 1910 as a legislative tool designed to disenfranchise African Americans. These laws allowed illiterate or poor white voters to skip literacy tests and pull taxes if their ancestors had been eligible to vote before the abolition of slavery. So basically, it's like rules for V and not for me. So like, if you're black, you have to. It's like you have to work three times harder.
Starting point is 01:01:24 Yeah. You go, no, I mean, if you deserve human rights, then prove it. But I mean, we solved racism already and all these black people need to just stop complaining. Dude, FD. Why is FD wasting all these time of this long video essence? Just pay Tekken, bro. Just play Tekken. Get back to work.
Starting point is 01:01:40 Just shut up in special. Or shut up in old, bro. Put the Dragon Ove in the bag, little bro. Put Hay Hachie in a chokehold, little bro. The Hachie is a chokehold. Does that happen in Tegin? I don't know. Put Eddie Gordo
Starting point is 01:01:52 with a capoeira stand, spin him around. I'm assuming that she's setting this up so that she can create her employee for prediction market startup. Her new prediction market. People are using, and this is, by the way, I do want to watch the stuff that you guys prepared, but just setting the stage with this,
Starting point is 01:02:11 people are using these types of tools to do automated trading. Oh, wow. To kind of empower the new generation. Now, it's not just Wall Street that has, as like bots and things like looking at stuff. It's actually me and this AI that can't count to 10. Or tell me there's an X in October.
Starting point is 01:02:33 Oxtova. I have a question. Maybe this is just a vibes read. You're going to have to do a soul read on this one. What is the ratio balance here? The percentage ratio between wants to do this, to just kind of do anything to get clout and attention, and post
Starting point is 01:02:53 versus making clouty content to get attention to do the thing that gets you the money. Sometimes it feels like it's validation for within your in-group that you're, so much posturing happens in tech. It's like that meme that I showed you that one time where it's like, me and my co-founder were at dinner
Starting point is 01:03:13 and we had an issue with our code base and then the waiter actually helped us fix it. Yeah. Only in SF. So, I'm such a humanist. We didn't tip him. I don't believe in that kind of country. San Francisco is a place with a lot of rich culture,
Starting point is 01:03:27 but it does feel like tech is kind of this parasite that's like eating the culture away from the city. And then the thing I would be is like, you can't throw a stone without hitting a MacBook. Like with a terminal opened up. And I just wanted like a little more, like L.A. has its entertainment industry, but like it feels like it has a lot more. It's bigger by a lot.
Starting point is 01:03:51 So there's just like a lot more space for culture to happen and there's like cultural reflection in it's like a miracle I met Anastasia I was like a normal like a normal person I'm a normal person if yeah for San Francisco you're normal have You never work in tech at all right? I've never in my life work in tech See that's that's like you're a you're a unicorn and you're so fucking weird and despite not having worked into we found one of the weird ones outside of it yeah that's the thing it's like from base principles I moved to the Bay Area because when I was growing on the Bay Area was punk rock and artists. That's what I thought of.
Starting point is 01:04:26 I thought of we were talking about Green Day before we started recording. I was so excited to go to Gilman. I'm like, oh my God, I can't wait to go to Gilman. I can't wait to go to Bottom of the Hill. All of these venues that I had heard about. I moved to the hate when I first moved. I was like, wow, this will be, oh, there's nothing.
Starting point is 01:04:44 And you were like, I love it, actually. This is much better than I heard about, actually. And so I moved there and little did I know. I was moving there right in the moment when tech was becoming an Uber parasite. Like, it had already done that in the early 2000s slightly, but it was staying in the South Bay. Yeah, the dot-com boom was mostly in the South Bay. And now it's spreading to Oakland and San Francisco and this is bad back in 2008 when I moved there. And then it was like, oh, I didn't realize that I was going to move in.
Starting point is 01:05:21 to a place to watch everything I love die. Yeah. There's also that like kind of Chernobyl radiation that spreads out and infects everything around it where like in retrospect, this is so fucked up. But early on, people talk to me about Oakland like it was the dormitory living space. Like it was Shirek.
Starting point is 01:05:42 Yeah, you could, because you can just like live there for less money. It's basically a hotel. Like it's not its own place with a culture. I was going to say, oh, people talked about it like it was, like super dangerous and like... Yeah, that's where the crime is. Yeah, yeah, that's where all the black people are. So, you know.
Starting point is 01:05:57 Yeah. They got this guy, Ryan Cougler running around. Look out. Look out. Look out. He's playing a big friend. If I had run into him. And that is, that sort of read on tech in San Francisco is very reductive. But it speaks to like a frustration that I had, especially once I quit my tech job and was no
Starting point is 01:06:17 longer like going every day. Yeah. And then I realized how much. You know, all of my friends were still in it and all the people that I knew. And then it was just very, like, isolating. Whereas, like, in L.A. L.A. is weird. Like, so many people, like, don't have traditional jobs and, like, are, you know, you go to, like,
Starting point is 01:06:35 Hillhurst at 2 p.m. on a Wednesday. And there's, like, people out and about. And it's like, I don't. Yes, the entertainment industry is huge here. There's also other, there's, like, a hundred other industries that are also huge here. And it's also worth noting that San Francisco is, like, seven square miles. Yes. And Los Angeles is 100 billion,
Starting point is 01:06:52 bajillion, it's a fucking state large. It's a bug bite to an elephant kind of thing. Like it's like, oh, that's weird. Plus, even like the industry, industry, like the most cynical parts of it here, it's still 100 years old. You know, there is like implicitly some kind of cultural value there in there that's being maintained,
Starting point is 01:07:10 like a super old theater or something. Honestly, it's the practice. Or like the Castro, there's so much history, and especially with like gay rights and stuff like that. There's this combination of like not, building additional housing and the like kind of nimbie thing. Yeah, yeah. Combined with the proliferation of tech workers moving into San Francisco and creating
Starting point is 01:07:31 a competitive housing market where like the prices of, you know, at the peak, San Francisco was more expensive than New York and L.A. Yeah. Yeah, that sounds like. And I remember when I moved, I could get like a two bedroom apartment in L.A. for the price of like a one bedroom in a shared... Yeah.
Starting point is 01:07:52 Like you had roommates. And I had roommates. Yeah. It's like I didn't pay that much more to get like a place where I could have an office since I was going to be like working from home and I needed to have some sort of separation. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:08:04 Half the thing that motivated me to move down was like, I don't know, it was like $600 left, less than the studio I was paying for to live in a one bedroom here. And then now, I'm like, oh, well, that's because this is like, it was a building here that was a pre-established living environment. And this was essentially like just the dorms for a law school that I was living in in San Francisco.
Starting point is 01:08:29 So like no one there spoke to anyone and it just was kind of culturally absent. But yeah, maybe I'm out of touch and out of pocket. We were a little, this is the thing that was like, I always thought, naively, that if nothing else, the like, that like silly kind of, kind of culty, but like warmth. Like it's insulated and no one from outside is welcome. But that kind of like, we're a family who did that naivete, would at least exclude the fascists. Yeah, you would think. No.
Starting point is 01:09:02 You would think people like, if you wore like a Nick Fuentes shirt or something and you went into the Patreon office, you would be absolutely. Like there would be. Yeah. At the very least, at the very least, like I worked in places that were very, supportive of like trans people. Yes. And and they were like, it was like very like stage one lib where like I don't know if you
Starting point is 01:09:28 remember when Trump got elected in 2016. It was like a, it was like a dark day at the office. Everyone was upset. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But like at the very least, people had their hearts in the right place. And I met so many amazing people. It is one of those things where it's just like I got a, I got to. I got to eject.
Starting point is 01:09:46 I got to hit the eject button on this. I do think while tech was originally a very like liberal space back in the day, do you think is getting more and more conservative? It is. I feel like it's, it's, I mean, I don't know. My diagnosis is that it's the allegiance to the almighty dollar. Yeah. Over any sort of civil liberties and social like freedoms.
Starting point is 01:10:10 Yeah. It's like at the end of the day. And then also when when belts tighten like. like financially and money isn't growing on trees because like it used to be easier like comparatively to raise uh to raise funds and stuff i don't know you just start becoming uh like corporatocracy i guess yeah and guess who's getting called is probably yeah the people in lower positions of power which most likely are ones that aren't going to look like you the CEO and know you the CEO what do we know we're just the guys who goof at the TikTok so let's just
Starting point is 01:10:41 just you silly boy set up for insurance It feels like an ad. It does feel like an ad, but it's not because they wouldn't be selling anything. That is kind of something that happens with prediction markets is where people will be like, I'm going to go through all of my earnings on Kalshi, and they're not disclosing that it's actually a Kalshi ad, that they're being paid by Kalshi to do that. So, yeah, there's a lot of undisclosed ads too. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:11:15 This is funny. I don't know if that's what this is. Because the AI is telling them, they're doing the, ooh, close. Okay. So they're setting up open claw. This is like a dark future of like those day in the life videos that Maiko did. And I like did a little bit. It's this one, but it's like, I drink my protein slurry that served to me by my AI companion.
Starting point is 01:11:39 If you want a picture of tech optimism, watch a day in the life of a software engineer. Definitely. Yeah. On my claw bot is telling me how to set up a claw bot. It is literally getting dark outside. I do have bad news. I do have bad news. I guess she's saying I've been working all day, but that's like what everyone knows.
Starting point is 01:12:10 That's a job, yeah. That's just five o'clock. That's crazy. Sobbing, this is sobbing. We lost his son, we lost a soldier. The Richard I had before, unfortunately, gone. I tried getting it back, but it just didn't work. Anyways, we have Richard number two.
Starting point is 01:12:24 I think I make a new video about setting up Richard. I want to teach him how to trade. I want to teach him how to do my social media, and I can't wait for him to run my life. So yeah, it's like, so that you get in a sense, it's like this type of person is using a lot of AI to run various aspects I still think about. and there was a window of time where this video made sense. I was going to do a video where I had AI like post and tweet for me for like a week,
Starting point is 01:12:48 but it was years ago. And so then- It was pre-pandemic. It was pre-pandemic. Yeah. And it was a novel thing because I was fiddling with, I used to have fun like fiddling with technology for videos, but now it's like not fun because it makes you think about this stuff.
Starting point is 01:13:04 Yeah. Well now, yeah, because now it inevitably feels like a laundering, The optics of it. Yeah. It's like, oh, God, it must be fine. Yeah. Let's talk prediction markets, but in dating terms. A binary market is basically a yes-no bet.
Starting point is 01:13:20 Imagine you betting on him texting you back or not. Hedging means protecting yourself against the risk by taking the opposite position. In dating, that's basically having a backup guy in case your main relationship fails. This is like what I was saying earlier about the just words that they use. Yeah. Like a binary market being a yes-no bet, it's like, it's like, it's just a yes, no bet. You said it in a way that I understood, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 01:13:45 But then, and also then saying it's basically a yes, no bet. Even more basically, if you're a chick, here's the version of yes, no. I also fall into this thing where sometimes I will still use words that I'd use if I was like in a meeting in tech. Yeah, oh. Like I'll say like the term Boolean or something or binary. Oh yeah. And it's like, it's.
Starting point is 01:14:06 I'm m-dashing in my voice. Yeah. Let's circle back. Taking this offline is something I had to like scrape out of my brain. Oh my God. Which always bother me because it doesn't. It doesn't make sense. It's the opposite of whatever.
Starting point is 01:14:20 Like the number of time people would say that after an in-person meeting. They actually mean offline in a completely different technical context, which is or even a non-technic, but it doesn't matter. It's confusing. Linguistically it is by the time it reached me, no reference to the technical elbow. Yeah. Or I didn't even know if it's based on. There's a technical thing. I think it could be referring to and a non-technical thing I think it could be referring to,
Starting point is 01:14:43 but it doesn't matter. Market odds are an extremely important component of prediction markets. It's basically when the whole market collectively believes that a chance of something happening is. The odds. I'm like, why did she use so many words to describe the odds? The odds, like literally. But I guess, I guess she's saying if you see the term market odds, if you see the term market
Starting point is 01:15:03 odds, that's the odds. Markedly. Of the thing. If you will. It's kind of like when you're doing your nails Girl style Yeah, I'm like, why did that sound so complex? I was like, why are we doing this?
Starting point is 01:15:17 It's like water. So when people say water, they're referring to like H2O, Which is a collection of molecule. Collection of molecule is two hydrogen, one oxygen. But sometimes there's other stuff in there. Sometimes there's other stuff in there. So it's a composite beverage. The government, maybe, yeah, it's fluoride.
Starting point is 01:15:33 Can you explain it for a light skin nerd? We put it in light skin nerds It's like when Vegeta Yeah It's like if Vegeta Bet on something 50-50 Yeah He bet on whether or not
Starting point is 01:15:48 They'd be this They'd find the legendary Super-Syad Me going bankrupt doing this Right before I bet on something So let's say there's a 70% chance He'll go to and 30% he'll commit Those are the two things Yeah
Starting point is 01:16:01 30% he'll commit is incredibly high Commit also I don't know And that's not the That's not a binary market Would you like to be married Oh no yeah you're right It's completely different
Starting point is 01:16:12 It's a 50% chance No a binary market is there's two options And she's presenting this as a binary market When in reality there's a bunch of options Between a ghost and commit Yeah But okay again And explain it for a light skid nerd
Starting point is 01:16:26 Oh well so I was going to say I was going to say the tech The word I would use in a tech meeting That I have to take out of my vocabulary Is it's actually modal Stop stop stop stop stop Probability curves equals modern astrology. And lastly, let's talk inside a train.
Starting point is 01:16:41 Explain that. Yeah. Why did you know what was so fast? Why is everything else over explained? Was that a metaphor? She explained to the concept of odds that an event would happen. Twice. So probability what?
Starting point is 01:16:53 Probability curves. Curves. Yeah. As in like... Did she set that up? Modern astrology. Probability curves equals modern astrology. There's those sparkles.
Starting point is 01:17:04 that we were insecure about putting in the the The Sparckles because it's, I think now it's like the AI Sparkles so we got fucked on that but whatever. All right, let's keep watching this. We should have, uh, sad baddies, bad. Maybe it's boys. Well, maybe now it's like meta.
Starting point is 01:17:19 Yeah, we're owning them. Yeah. And lastly, let's talk insider trading is when you have the information before everybody else does. Almost like if you know that the guy that you like is going to break up with his girlfriend, so you slide in his DMs early. Tune in or follow me for more.
Starting point is 01:17:34 prediction mark a term explanation. I know maybe there's like a hint of irony to it, but there's always, there's something, the like relatability element of just being like, it's like when you do something cruel and sociopathic, you know what I mean? I'm still upset that the one thing she didn't explain. It's the one that was the most confusing thing. It's like modern astrology, dude. All right, who's this?
Starting point is 01:17:54 It's kind of like when you read a novel, how there's words and stuff. Who's this, baddie? These are some examples of paid ads on TikTok and Instagram that, Cali has put out. Oh, this is actually, this is like potentially a sneaky integration. This is straight up. These are straight up just ads. So we're going to look at a few more of these.
Starting point is 01:18:12 But the reason that people are talking about this right now is because there are a bunch of lawsuits against Polly Market and Cali. There's a class action claiming Cali illegally runs online sports betting platform, which you know, they might have a case. I mean what? Just because they do? That's the rule now. Just because we advertise and allow for sports betting on our, you know, the.
Starting point is 01:18:34 sports betting on Kalshi is like Los Angeles basketball team versus they don't name the team. That's how they do it. I think because to name them, you have to have some sort of name license or something. That's so funny. And it's like, uh, Dickela Dottich or something. Gikala boat bitch. Slovenian point guard for the Los Angeles basketball team. European style big guy.
Starting point is 01:19:02 Yeah. And then there are also several investigations into how they're advertising and targeting young people, making it seem like using these platforms are like a hack to make money. And that's the biggest. Because they say it out loud. And that is the biggest thing because given the time that we're in right now, there are more people being squeezed than ever. And it's harder to find traditional work. And so these are the times when people want a way out. And this is preying predatorily on that desire.
Starting point is 01:19:37 Yeah, there must be. And even I think people are often sharp enough to know, well, it's like you were saying, the stats are against me. Like the house usually wins, but, but, blah, blah, blah, hang on, hang on. Because I have a strategy. It takes 20 seconds, but on the weather. I do it repeatedly. I do it not too overambitiously.
Starting point is 01:19:54 And it's like, well, no, it's going to feel not overambitious because gambling-wise, 30 bucks feels like a reasonable thing. but if you are doing it every single day and being drained financially, it's just like, it's cute, bankrupting. So this one says, the caption is, 2026 side hustle,
Starting point is 01:20:12 predict the weather, 20 seconds, make $35, repeat daily, make $2,70 dollars. This is like when you're betting on your sneaky link's penis size. That's on your son's nighttime erection. Oh, yeah, when you're Brian Johnson. Did it say sponsored by Kalshi? Because a lot, I use this Kalshi,
Starting point is 01:20:29 but I do think that there have been a lot of these that do not explicitly say that their ads. These ones have been taken down so I don't have access to like the caption or the hashtags. But it's, it's believable that it could happen that it's not, it doesn't say hashtag sponsored because I, with my own eyes, seeing it not happen. I guess like, what do they care if they just shotgun blast out a bunch and they get taken down? Yeah. Like, okay, whatever.
Starting point is 01:20:53 Ask for forgiveness. This one does say actually sponsored baked into the video. Is this from Kalshi? Yes. This is a sponsored advertisement from. Yeah, I guess this is a sponsored post, but there's something unsettling when a, if I'm being paid by a brand to like say an ad read, that's one thing. And it's disclosed.
Starting point is 01:21:13 This is this weird thing where you know it's an ad, but it's on the official page. And they talk to you like we're best friends because they're trying to leverage that parisocial thing. And it feels very icky. Like, okay, guys, let me tell you about something that I've really loved lately. you watch it and then you're like, for a second, I thought this was like a real TikTok and then I looked and saw that it was sponsored. And now I'm going to swipe away. I wonder if there's even like, do a lot of like younger people get why that's bad? Like, I think it's so normalized.
Starting point is 01:21:50 I think it's like, I think you see this and you go, oh, this is cool. This person was posting a sincere thing and Kalshi decided to repost it. Like I don't even think the idea. that something that's supposed to look authentic wouldn't be. And they go like, oh, yeah, it must be real. Like, she's in her house. Pay. She didn't out loud say, I'm being paid to do it. It just says it in a text.
Starting point is 01:22:11 It just looks like it was shot with a front-facing iPhone camera. That's just like the one I have. That's my best friend. I have a phone. I should bankrupt myself. I also just, before you hit play, I want to point out, it's clearly an ad for gambling. And then it goes, payouts vary with marketing conditions or real world events, not guaranteed.
Starting point is 01:22:25 As if it's like the video is about to be, here's how you can guarantee to make money. Yeah. I simply know what the, weather's going to be every day. A money hack. I simply, it is, they do this all the time. They'll be like, um, I bet on Trump saying sleepy Joe Biden, duh, because he always does. Hey, I don't know why more people aren't doing this. Like, I literally need $7.61.7. Like, I'm not a trader or anything. My friend literally just told me about this app called CalShe.
Starting point is 01:22:55 Wait, can you pause? That's what literally. I'm not a traitor or anything. Trader. Trader. Trader. Trader. A day traitor? I was like, I'm not a trait. I'm not Benedict Arnold. I'm a faithful. I'm the most faithful.
Starting point is 01:23:08 That's what I thought too. I literally I was like, I'm the most badassest, the dopest, the dopest, the coolest, faithfulest, faithful day ever was. You imagine. Kelsey has hired the most unlikable man in the world. It's the Michael Rapaport, rap report. Oh, dude. Dude, that's my S&L. Basically pick what you think is going to happen in real life.
Starting point is 01:23:34 I saw this one where everyone was choosing the same side. Like you pick what's going to have. That's just novel gambling. I found this. Okay, check this out, guys. Here's how I won $1,000 in Las Vegas. There's this little dice, right? It has six sides.
Starting point is 01:23:48 And I bet what the number is going to land on. And I made $1,000. I'm not a trader. I'm a faithful. I'm not getting paid for this. And this is really. crazy thing is like I all you have to do is know what number it's going to hang on every single time and that's not that hard guys like I get it right a lot like at least one and six times
Starting point is 01:24:12 I know like way more people than six I could name all of them I could remember all the numbers guys I found this hack where I just flip this coin and if it lands on heads I make money and if it lands on tail anyway you should check out Kalshi uh or polymarket She said a friend of mine said the app to it, right? Yeah. A friend of mine named John Kalshi. It's a weirdest thing. There's a friend who said, sorry I'm late 15 minutes, just doing some Kalshi trades.
Starting point is 01:24:42 What's Kalshi? Here's a photo of my small dog and also it's Brat Summer. Is that Kashi like the cereal? No dumb ass. No moron. It's Kalshi. Just for the record, there's no such thing as a money hack. If you see someone saying here's a money hack that you should use, they're lying.
Starting point is 01:25:00 The one money hack is getting paid by Calci to do a fake act. Yeah, that is the real. That's a real hack. It's owning a betting website. The money hack is stealing other people's labor. Yeah. The true money hack is... Slavery.
Starting point is 01:25:17 I was going to say what Elon Musk is doing. I mean... Well, he's not ever good. He was choosing the same side. The whole chart was green. I was like, okay, if everyone thinks this is happening, it's probably happening. So I just picked the same thing they did.
Starting point is 01:25:34 I woke up this morning and it paid out. Why aren't you guys doing this? It felt stupidly easy. Okay, so that's crazy. So they're actually, which is, this is crazy to me. They gave an example bet. The example bet was a 99% chance odds
Starting point is 01:25:49 of something to happen. If there is a 90, the way that Cali works is that you are buying contracts for one side of the bet. So if 99 to 1 means that, like, essentially, I'm like simplifying this, but like 99% more people bought one side than the other side, which means your payout is fucking nothing. Yes.
Starting point is 01:26:10 If it pays out. And it's kind of like a. No, that's not the right word. It's gumbling. It's gumbling. Gombling. If you, but the thing is, and this happens, we talked about it earlier, if you want to get paid out on those 99% bets, then you have to spend. a ton of money. And then there is a one, if it's a 99 to 1%, exactly, there is a one in 100
Starting point is 01:26:35 chance that you lose that giant sum of money. There are not a lot of 99% consensus on anything, right? Like, it's such a crazy, because there's always going to be a contingent of people that are like, well, it's 60% people going on with this thing. I'm going to go 40%. It's always going to, it's, I mean, I just can't believe they actually showed the thing. Yeah, you can take those bets, but you should, like, consult a quadratic calculator and look at, like, what the odds are of certain events happening. I swear to God, if more people looked at a calculator, I guess you'd, no, no, no, it's hard to do probability, like, theory.
Starting point is 01:27:11 But analogies are helpful. I think if we educated people with analogies more often and, like, compared the scale of, say, like, people's perception of what a million to a billion is. Oh, my God, yeah. It's just difficult for the human brain to comprehend. I mean, it took us like thousands and thousands of years to think of the number zero. It took us thousands of years to come up with CalShe, the new sports betting app where you can bet on anything. I haven't heard about this.
Starting point is 01:27:33 Where would I find such a thing? Well, easy. You just go to your app store. Oh, no, they're stuck in an ad. You go to your app store and then you fucking throw your phone in the trash. Oh, perfect. Yeah. I mean, I'm not going to eat the phone.
Starting point is 01:27:45 The real app where you can bet on anything. Because you're a girl. The guy who, the YouTuber Benjamin, who lost all his money, was doing, uh, arbitrage across a different prediction markets. Oh man. And like it was just like is super duper in the weeds like because like they don't always agree on the pricing of something and so you can find like gaps in the market. And it's just like don't do it.
Starting point is 01:28:08 What better example could you have than the guy that everyone thought just got it completely. Yeah. Yeah. It's like Michael Burry being like, hey, I'm bowing out of this because this market's crazy right now. Me and I'm my my old roommate for he was he was much more dedicated and consistent with it. but he used to play blackjack online for like, because the gambling rules in the UK and Europe,
Starting point is 01:28:29 they're kind of flexible. Like there's like slot machines in pubs, right? Whatever he was doing was at least at the time eventually resulting in like a small profit. Like, like I'm talking like less than £100 a week. If you have a 50.5% win rate or whatever and you always make the same bet. And he was just doing that like very consistently.
Starting point is 01:28:48 And I remember we, one day I asked him like, why aren't you doing that anymore? and he just said like it's literally less money than the job I just got that's the thing it is it's labor to like but it feels like you hacked it when they they always say like I did it from bed blah blah blah the people who are really about that life or if you've ever like seen someone who does day trading and shit they're the most anxious people in the world they're always on their phones doing their things or they're always on their computers or they need to be looking at all the monitors at once and then they still lose most of the time yeah yeah like no finance degree required is so irresponsible. Like obviously, why not? Like, it's like, even if you had a finance thing, you can still be addicted to gambling. But this just feels like they've, it's, um, it's like a, it's like Pichinko parlors on your phone. Like if you've ever seen a Pichinko parlor where it's just like a bunch of old people like
Starting point is 01:29:42 playing Pachinko in unison, you're an expected value machine. Like, it's just going to happen. It's going to slowly seep you of all your money because the way those things are set is to do exactly that. Yeah. So if you only continue to play, then you will lose your money. The only way to win is to get extremely lucky and walk away or to not play, which is what I think everyone should choose to do unless, like I actually, that's what
Starting point is 01:30:06 I think everyone should do to do. My stance on gambling is don't do it. Yeah. And if you don't heed my advice, you're an adult. You can do whatever the fuck you want. But that's my line. I've known so many people who are. are addicted to gambling in Phoenix and they spend all of their time at those casinos.
Starting point is 01:30:28 And like one of my high school friends, his mom lost everything, lost their house, lost everything because she was addicted to gambling. I mean, I've had family members get addicted to gambling and then it becomes my problem. Yeah. So it's like I have a personal vested interest in fuck stop fucking gambling. People treat, I think, a lot of like behavioral addictions. like they, you know, everyone says like, I get. But they should be treated with actual care.
Starting point is 01:30:55 But they treat it. Yeah, I think it's like when there's a chemical element involved, people, like literal physical imbibing, right? People will, you can at least refer to personal experience. You'll be like, okay, well, when I drink, I feel a little better. So when alcoholics drink, which is also not correct. Because it's not the high of drinking that alcoholics rely on. It is the addiction that they have to mitigate for the most part.
Starting point is 01:31:18 But there isn't like a, I think. the comparison for gambling is so tricky for people because if you are not, if you don't have like a predilection to get addicted to gambling, you literally, and I'm, this is the way I am, I literally can't even conceive of wanting to do it after I lose. Right. When I lose, I go like, fuck this. I'm never even going close to this again. I've been to Vegas two times, second time.
Starting point is 01:31:40 I didn't bet a penny because I got sad losing like 20 bucks the first time. But if you were a gambling at it, you are literally, it's a different dialect, different phenotype. Your brain is so different. that people can't relate. And it's just like, why would you do that? Every time you get a little up from winning anything, there's neurologists who study this because it literally is like rewiring your brain every time you get that little high.
Starting point is 01:32:06 We don't have the explanation of the solution. So unfortunately, the best solution we have is prohibiting this till we have a better thing. It shouldn't be legal. And it's like not, it's legal through loopholes and not through intelligence. Yeah. Yeah. There's a reason they can't think trade. I can't believe it's it's, trade NFL. Trade NFL would be a crypto tech. Just trade it around. Not complicated. It's legal in all 50 states. Just try it. It's legal in all 50 states, by the way. Sounds like it wouldn't be,
Starting point is 01:32:35 but no reason. Just don't look into it. Why would it be illegal? Trading's not like. What do you mean? Trading sports. I'm trading on the call sheet culture market. Oscars for best actress. I saw Hamnet cried. I would put everything I own on this on that gone. There is run. Wait, it did not. What was she betting? Oh, that was Jesse Buckley. Yeah, Jesse Buckley one. Damn.
Starting point is 01:32:55 Wow. I got to get. Oh, fuck. Wait. My kids' college. Yeah, this is, is this one where this aired before the Oscars? Because if it aired after the Oscars, then wow, you picked everyone correct. I was going to say that shit as well, like, should we come to think of it?
Starting point is 01:33:13 This feels targeted towards women because it's like, again, like, I don't want to bet. on sports. Ew. Scary. Movies. I know movies. It feels like it's leveraging grow math. Again, and I think it is a, it's a symptom of how patronizing people are when in positions
Starting point is 01:33:32 of power, especially misogynistically, where it's like, look, this is ultra, ultra-cinical, but women don't, there's too stupid. They're not going to see that we're trying to trick them. Jingly keys, but when they can pink and they won't know. And it's like, no, human beings can smell the cynicism. on this it just depends whether or not you like get why it's bad in the first place right who's gonna win the bachelorette season 22 there's so many options is that the one that got canceled yeah that shit that's awesome that's so sick couldn't see that one coming huh I know where is the option
Starting point is 01:34:07 on that yeah and then and then this is the type of thing where it gets canceled and calci's protected yeah like bachelor gets canceled everyone uh no one is charged for their bets but I don't know if you get charged to a transaction fee or something like that. Right. Because you have to buy the contracts. Right. So I don't know how that part works. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:34:26 Maybe you have like an internal currency that remains or something. There was, I can't remember if it was a lawsuit exactly, but some kind of her fuffle because there, it was like Ayatola will leave office by this date. And it's like, well, he was killed. He never left office. And so they were saying they weren't going to pay. out and everyone was like, but he's not in office anymore. Super duper not.
Starting point is 01:34:53 Yeah, that's pretty locked down. So I can't remember if it was like some, what kind of dispute it was. Talk about insider trading. Oh my God. Like signing up for that one and then blowing someone up. That's cheating for sure. I mean, you guys have seen that there's like a lot of the ones that involve like Iran. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:35:11 Oh, totally. Like 20 minutes before like, okay, fees are not charged when they when they cancel. However, you do pay to bid because you're buying a contract that, so basically it's like 99%, 1%, right? You buy a contract that is basically that if it's like a 50, 50, right, a contract costs 50 cents on one way and the 50 cents and that way. That way the math is really easy for how the payouts work. And so that's why arbitrage is possible because it doesn't look like they handle fractions of a set for the contracts. I can be wrong. That makes sense.
Starting point is 01:35:49 I mean, it's whatever works out the best, so I guess. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, just to wrap up, this one actually, I don't know if anyone actually saved the video, but there's a screenshot from a video that part of the lawsuit. This was one of the official, like, Kalshi Page ads. Oh, wow. POV, I was about to be unable to pay my rent, but I got two years of rent through Kalshi's predictions.
Starting point is 01:36:10 It's amazing. So who knows if it's like in the video, but like, let's just be clear for a second. let's be the most generous and say this is in like the one of the cheapest areas to live in the country. She is saying that she just won what, like 20 grand or something. I think it bothers me more just because it's so fucking sneaky. Yeah. To even say like rent, you know that thing you're afraid of? That thing you're constantly scared about.
Starting point is 01:36:36 Healthcare, that thing that brings so much stress. We can help you with that. It's not like, now you can buy PS5 or something recreational. It's like, this will save your life. life. And they don't even say this with like, with like Robin Hood or something. Like it like, like Moomoo doesn't advertise this kind of shit. This is move fast and break things, move fast and loose. Like we have all this. Move fast and break everyone's financial lives. Oh, the one thing I'll say is they have been taking action against insider trading recently, but like they will never take action
Starting point is 01:37:05 against inside. And like how could they possibly take action about it? Yeah. It's like every possible topic on everything about every. Some like Mr. Beast employee got fine. by Kalshi, like, some amount of money for insider trading, but they're running at ads now. Can you, can you put on? Like, the in the world. Rule number one, Kalshi bans insider trading. That's the first rule. Because Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange.
Starting point is 01:37:31 A little secret there at the bottom. Because Kalsh is a different. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That Mr. Beast one is about how some Mr. Beast guy got fined for insider trading. These are very, um, scary signs. I've been seeing these around at like bus stops and stuff. Rule number five, we don't win when you lose. You know what the real answer is?
Starting point is 01:37:52 Is that they win no matter what? How could they not win? That doesn't make any sense. Actually, that's a lie because they do win when you lose, but they also win when you win. Yeah. We don't win when you lose. That is like, straight up. They should say we don't exclusively win when you lose, but that already, like, we aren't the house.
Starting point is 01:38:12 No, you are. Yeah. They don't win if no one wins somehow if like everyone lost someone. They win by having a transaction fee on everyone's trades. Win or lose? No, they said they don't win when you. Their marketing towards women appears to have been paying off. Women now make up 26% of Kalshi users doubling from 13%.
Starting point is 01:38:35 10 months ago, Jesus. Wow, that's a gigantic jump. I can see like, I mean, we're being skeptical about like the actual content of the ads, but I do think just the noise works, right? Like it doesn't matter the content of what you're saying, but if you just tell people, especially that round one, I can see that being very impactful. I feel like, you know, even the fact that if you have a very specific algorithm
Starting point is 01:38:57 on TikTok or Instagram or whatever, maybe you've never even heard of Kalshi. And all of a sudden, you're these women who look an awful lot, like the women you follow. Yeah. are now like look at how easy this is you could be like all right i'll give it a try i do think that trading a little on um i mean even the color palette and some of the presentation i think they are doing like a robin hood acorns kind of like you know when you especially when you're a kid like
Starting point is 01:39:27 you don't really know what's like you know savings as like an abstract and you know investment as an abstract but it's more just like that's like grown up work you wear a tie and you do grown up work i can totally see it being like, you know, what was ACON's old thing? It's like every, they round up every dollar you spend or something. And then that goes, no, I can see this being, they're like, look, we're just a bunch of kids. We're just young. Hey, do you have to do that tell, sell, sell, wolf of Wall Street stuff. But with that simple little system, maybe you just invest a little bit.
Starting point is 01:39:58 Even a little guy like you can win back. Just a little silly. Oh, just a little guy. And then it's like if like by rounding up, you were using ACONs, it's like, oh, no, we meant round up to $10 million. Oh, sorry. You didn't read the fine print. Oops. Jordan, I do have a surprise for you, but there is a sequel to a movie that we both love dearly in our hearts. No way.
Starting point is 01:40:23 Our hearts and our minds. Are you fucking kidding me right now? And it involves a certain British individual. Are you kidding me? Who does a flawless American accent? He does a flawless American accent with no flaws. Are you kidding? He's keeping the peace?
Starting point is 01:40:35 He's protecting the queen. Oh, my goodness. Oh, he fucked up. The beekeeper, too. Let's go. Oh, he's made of bees now. Following on from, he just kind of disappeared out the window, right? That was the end of the last.
Starting point is 01:40:52 Didn't he, didn't he, am I imagining this? Or did he, like, dig up his getaway clothes and swim out into the ocean? Right, like a bee. Right, like bees do. Yeah, you know how they love being dunked in water? You're stuck in a bathtub? So it's been a right. rough time, our economy, and our government, and unwanted wars.
Starting point is 01:41:14 Thankfully, the beekeeper too will follow the beekeeper society trying to overthrow the U.S. government. That way, the first part of what you said was in the synopsis? No, that was me. Oh, it sounded as expected. You'd overthrow the government with bees? I thought he killed them all. It literally goes all the way up to the top.
Starting point is 01:41:35 But the president's left alive. The president's left alive and her fail son, who's who's like Mark Zuckerberg slash like slash John Ralphio. It's a pit, pippa, from the Hunger Games, right? Yeah, it was Josh Hutcherson. He's so good in it, by the way. Yeah, he's great. He plays a fantastic Jared Kushner.
Starting point is 01:41:58 Is he the one we just found out is from Stroud? No, that's Josh O'Connor. Oh, too many Joshes. We got a lot of little white guys. So this last line, So there's a new line. This is from Discussing film. I'm going to have you read.
Starting point is 01:42:15 The Beekeeper 2 will follow the beekeeper. Right. Makes sense. The Beekeeper Society trying to overthrow the U.S. government. Jason Statham. Wait. Jason Statham also. also now uses bees to heal his wounds.
Starting point is 01:42:44 Wait, what? And I forgot to mention something. Oh, that's right. I've harnessed the power of bugs in the animal kingdom. Like, the, it says... The first movie does not have supernatural elements for those wondering, by the way. Also, the character's name is not Jason Zinclair. Offset.
Starting point is 01:43:02 I mean, but it's him, though, right? His name is Adam Clay. What a name... Oh, my Lord. What a, like, scientific... scientifically engineered, like Tom Clancy. That's like open square brackets name to be inserted later. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 01:43:16 You will never remember it. You just call him Jason. Wait, it's like, it's like, okay, the name of a game is come up with an X CIA operative name in a John Krasinski led. Clyde Slate. Yeah, yeah. It's like, um, I said Tom Riddle.
Starting point is 01:43:31 What's wrong with my brain? The riddler. Then I almost said Tom Scott. Tom Scott is actually pretty good. My brain is incapable of coming up with unique names. The guy who wrote the original one is like an old, like, because it was David Ayer. David Ayer? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:43:47 And if you go to Kurt Wimmer, this guy wrote, uh, if you scrolled down. I believe, didn't he write a law abiding soon? Yeah, Law Bid and equilibrium. He wrote equilibrium. But he's like 70. He, uh, so Kurt Wimmer is, um, not only did he write equilibrium, but they're in the behind the scenes for that movie is him extensively. talking about how he created and practices the martial art of Gun Carter.
Starting point is 01:44:15 Oh, God. Like, it's a real thing to him. He built it. I guess this guy's producing Bekeber 2, but he's not writing it. But he's there. Wow, he might be the most famous person from University of South Florida. I have never, I don't know any USF alums other than like athletes. I'd never seen this type of grid, by the way, that it's like, no, no, no.
Starting point is 01:44:38 I love these. I love these. Producer, no. It's like, we're saving space because you're not famous enough to have a section for all of your, like, writer credits, your producer credits, your directorial. They do this also for like famous, like Martin Scorsese.
Starting point is 01:44:52 Did he write this one or just directed? Right. That kind of thing. Or you see it also on award show pages for like what things won, what awards. I'd rather, I think if I could make a request, if I had a point break too. I would like a check mark for the yeses
Starting point is 01:45:06 and then just a blank for the numbers. As a buzzer no, no, no. But that's the point break remake. Oh, you're right, it's 2015. Yeah. No kianno. How has there not been an equilibrium remake? It can't be perfect.
Starting point is 01:45:20 It's perfect. Did it not do well in the box office? I did fine, I believe. I just don't. Because it's perfect. I mean, what would you change? Eskimate. What's its exclamation?
Starting point is 01:45:30 It's exclamated money. How much money did it exclimate? Wait. Oh. Oh, that's quite bad. Yeah, that's really, really bad. What? What?
Starting point is 01:45:41 Okay, now this movie, this movie had to make its money back on DVDs, though. It was in the right time for it, right? Yeah, that's rough. So, I estimated budget of 20 million, which doesn't account for a lot of people say double for budget. I don't know what it was like in the early 2000s, but yeah. The film was shown only 301 theaters. It's all it needs. It's fine.
Starting point is 01:46:03 500 grand in its opening week only to only 1.2 million when it closed. total $4 million internationally. And so 5.3 worldwide. But then again, this was a time when you could make money on DVDs. And we don't have the numbers on that. But this was a movie, by the way, with Christian Bale and freaking, was it John Travolta? No. Oh, Sean Bean is in it briefly and then he gets shot through a book.
Starting point is 01:46:29 And Tate Diggs. Not John Travolta. Why did I say that? Sean Bean gets shot through a book because it's a metaphor. Angus McFaid and Kigler on him for a second. Oh, that is an insane photo. Wow, how do you get that chosen as your photo? It's him holding a gun pointing it at you.
Starting point is 01:46:43 There's a moment in equilibrium where he cuts Tadex whole face off, which is pretty funny. What? I got to watch that movie again. That's so good. It's very beekeeper-esque, frankly. I feel like I saw it in school. Yeah, it's really, because it's basically a better version of Georgia or what stuff. It doesn't have stuff.
Starting point is 01:47:02 I don't think I've ever seen it, but it's kind of about like a surveillance state kind of thing. right? That never happened. It's funny that you ask her to say, don't look into the camera. I would say that the tail of cleric Preston is largely concerned with the surveillance state and the numbing of the emotional expectations
Starting point is 01:47:20 of you and those around you and the isolation of art and personal growth available. And it's also about standing in a circle and then little guns come out of your sleeves and you kill in the most optimal pattern possible, which of course is how the clerics are trained. This is all from your dissertation that you wrote, right? It is funny to think of an era where Christian Bale was like
Starting point is 01:47:43 It's pre-Batman begins So his biggest role is American Psycho at that point So I think this is like It's big, but maybe he's not a drawler Like had American Psycho that came out in 2001 or 90-something 90-something Let's see
Starting point is 01:48:00 Between 1990 and 1990 2000 I actually went to the year 3,000 Not much changed Except for one huge change. One huge change. One gigantic change.
Starting point is 01:48:11 What am I forgetting? Oh, it's entirely... Live underwater, yeah. Oh, but anyway, your granddaughter? Yeah, great, great-great-granddaughter, which is, by the way, not enough of his age. Yeah, like, yeah, but so Atlantis is back, but your granders are a babe. What was that? Busted?
Starting point is 01:48:27 Yeah, busted, later covered by the Jonas brothers. I never knew about, like, the Jonas Brothers covering it, and then... I never knew about Busted. Right, like, busted and, I want McFly Those were the big British ones Oh McFly had a big song
Starting point is 01:48:43 No they had a song Sorry they had another song that was covered by the Jonas Brothers What was that one? Because my fly was very briefly big in the UK I just don't remember what the song was 3,000 It was a year 3000 2005
Starting point is 01:48:55 But the sequel by Donald Glover And her cousin is so hot The Pit just wrapped up I gonna watch this show So it's good I mean, I'm in. In for a penny and for a pound. That last episode.
Starting point is 01:49:11 Whoa. Whoa. Episode before that, I cried. I leaped a tear. I cried. They fall in the big pit. Yeah, they finally fall in. It's about that.
Starting point is 01:49:19 It's based on the mouse rat song from Parks and Rec season one. Um. Those, those Andy. Andy's fate. What is his last name? I don't remember. His band? Chis prior?
Starting point is 01:49:31 Baird is it Dwyer? Is it Dwyer? Andy Dwyer. Why do I know that? He's annoying, right? Yeah. In that show? I watched the new Mario.
Starting point is 01:49:42 Nowadays, nowadays is pretty annoying. Yeah, yeah. I was just checking. I'll check him with these fellas. Yeah. So we don't like him, right? Simulating me, having a relationship with culture? Who am I?
Starting point is 01:49:53 Did you hear there was a ruling? It's not finalized yet. where a bankruptcy lawyer for Info Wars, which is going bankrupt, right. What happened? They are telling the deep state happens. Oh, no. The judge of that case.
Starting point is 01:50:15 I'll be the judge of that. It's like you. You have to pay $50 million to the families of Sandy Hook victims because. Wasn't it even more than that? by the way. Well, I want to say it was like, billion dollars or something. I want to say it's like 50 million per family. Yeah. Yeah. It was like it was like a bankrupt thing amount of money. That's only for families in Texas because. Yeah, wasn't it like a civil case and a local case or something like that? There's like two different states where the case is going on because he was found liable for
Starting point is 01:50:47 $1.4 billion in definition judgment. Which I don't even know if you can make that much on the supplements. Well, so the bankruptcy judge is trying to figure out how to get these families their Right. And he's trying to hide as money as fast as possible. And he also is trying not to sell. If I eat the money, they can't take the money. He still wants control over Info Wars because he's amassed this whole following. Right. Well, the onion is like, we will rent info wars from you.
Starting point is 01:51:16 Yeah. And he said, no, I refuse. I won't give the onion anything. And then the judge said, hey, let's actually let the families decide. They're like, this is their money. Yeah. So there's an offer from someone who says, supports Alex Jones.
Starting point is 01:51:30 And they think it's like a shell company of Info Wars, like someone who already owns Info Wars or whatever. Information battles. And it would be way more money. It was a big offer of money. But the family said, we want the onion to have it. So they let the families decide and they chose the onion. Nothing's finalized yet.
Starting point is 01:51:54 But there's a big New York Times article about it because they were. like this is kind of unprecedented that they let the families like well maybe it's not unprecedented it's like the end of rap battles of history you decide you who won the families could have who buys like they chose the place
Starting point is 01:52:12 offering less money as a like big fuck you yeah I mean it's like a classic Paramount trying to buy CBS Discovery or whatever Warner Discovery it is it's a very like kind of
Starting point is 01:52:28 Like King Solomon, like ethical decision mode or something? You cannot be the owner of this child. You must choose. By the way, terrible idea. Cutting the kid in half. Bad idea. But that was his trick, dude. Yeah, I would have said that too.
Starting point is 01:52:45 They chose the other. I'd be like, that was a test. But then what if they started cutting the kid in half? And what they didn't know is that it was two kids in a trench coat. Boom. You ruined the coat. Oh, it's like one of those magician tricks where there's a box and they're spinning it off. He's like, it's actually two kids.
Starting point is 01:53:01 Congrats, it's twins. You thought it was one really long baby. Thanks, everybody. We're going to head over to Sad Boys Nights where we're going to talk about Final Fantasy 7 rebirth. Also, we have a special announcement going on our Patreon free tier. You don't have to have a Patreon account to see that.
Starting point is 01:53:17 But it's announcing something pretty cool that we're pretty excited about. So definitely check it out if you're interested. We're going to be in full cosplay. Nope, that's not happening. Okay. Well, we could be. Try again.
Starting point is 01:53:26 Javis will. Will not All right then We'll agree to the word blood I said We had every episode establish with a particular phrase
Starting point is 01:53:33 We love you And we're Norrie Hey-bye Hey-bye Goochie girl How you doing How you're moving
Starting point is 01:53:40 Gov'n That future girl Future girl Yeah we're on now Take my money Go away Oh you want Go too rich for me
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