School of War - When, Not If: The Baltics Prepare for War

Episode Date: October 13, 2026

In the Baltics, war with Russia is no abstraction. Putin could take Lithuania’s capital if he achieved surprise, the nation’s army commander told Aaron MacLean. This week, Aaron travels through Lithuania and Latvia to speak with Brigadier General Nerijus Stankevičius, Lithuanian defense Minister Robertas Kaunas, and Latvian foreign minister Baiba Braže about why Lithuania is amending its constitution to allow weapons of mass destruction on its soil, what schoolchildren are learning in their war-preparedness exercises, and what each country is doing now to make sure they’re ready if war comes.  02:58 — Brig. Gen. Nerijus Stankevičius 04:25 — Russia Could Take Vilnius 06:03 — How Lithuania Would Fight 09:58 — “Never Again” 14:14 — Robertas Kaunas, Lithuania’s Defense Strategy 17:28 — Drones, AI & the Eastern Flank 22:31 — Nuclear Deterrence 23:58 — Preparing the Whole Country 29:16 — A Message to Putin 31:29 — Baiba Braže, Latvia on the Front Line 36:12 — Drones Over Latvia 37:28 — Joining Latvia’s National Guard 40:30 — Russia’s “Sub-Conventional” War 48:46 — What If Russia Wins in Ukraine? 55:54 — Can Russia Be Pressured Into Peace?  This episode of School of War is brought to you by Maven Smart System, the builder platform for the American warfighter, fielded across the force and live on the frontline today. Learn more at palantir.com. This episode of School of War is also brought to you by Stratolaunch, a leading pure-play hypersonics company.  Stratolaunch helps the U.S. and its allies move new hypersonic technologies from concept to capability, faster and cheaper.  Learn more about how Stratolaunch is accelerating the future of hypersonics at Stratolaunch.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode of School of War is brought to you by Maven Smart System, the builder platform for the American warfighter, fielded across the force and live on the front line today. Maven Smart System isn't just software you use. It's the platform you build on. Every day, thousands of uniformed service members use AI coding agents to build their own agentic applications across all warfighting functions on top of the DOW's integrated ontology. What once took a contract in a year, now takes a warfighter and an afternoon. Administered by OSWCDAO, powered by the Palantir platform. One platform deployed everywhere at all classifications. Build at the speed of war.

Today on School of War, we travel to the Baltic states, literally. I recently spent a week in Lithuania and Latvia, speaking to military and government leaders about their perceptions of the threat from Russia and about how they're preparing for the possibility of war. Both the present-day invasion of Ukraine, but also the longer historical relationship of these states to Moscow, contribute to a sense of grim concern in this part of the world. Geography has condemned the Baltics to cyclical tragedy. Trapped for centuries between German crusaders sailing in from the west and Russian imperialists on horseback from the east, not to say occasional predations from the Swedes and the Poles. Independence in

these countries has not been a frequent condition. The Baltic nations achieved it with foreign military assistance after World War I, but were then swallowed by the Soviet Union in 1939, seized by the Nazis in 1941, and then seized right back again in 1944 by the USSR. Between combat deaths, Soviet deportations to Siberia, the Holocaust Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania had been called by Napoleon Bonaparte the Jerusalem of the North. It is that no more. And general suffering, the region's overall population in those years shrank by roughly 20%. This episode contains the highlights of three of the interviews I conducted on the ground, with the commander of the Lithuanian army,

with the Lithuanian Minister of Defense, and with the Foreign Minister of Latvia, all of whom are paying careful attention to the battlefield lessons coming out of Ukraine and who see it as their job to prepare once again to defend their freedom. Let's get into it. It is a perspective for war, this Milwaukee invasion of Iraqis. 17, 1941, a date which will live in history. A bloody experience of Vietnam is to end in a state.

We continue to face the rain situation in grand. We'll fight on the beaches. We'll fight on the landing ground. We'll fight in the fields and in the streets. We shall never have a rest. Our episode today opens with me sitting on a park bench in downtown Vilnius. That's the capital of Lithuania, with the commander of the Lithuanian army. Nairius Stan Kavishius, and we're talking about the day Russia will attack his country.

He speaks of it in terms of when, not if he calls the day D-Day. So let's talk about today. We're sitting here in the middle of beautiful Vilnius. Vilnius is only 15 miles, 20 miles from the border of Belarus, something like that. When you look at that border and you consider the worst-case crisis scenarios, what worries you the most? So one challenge is our capital is close to a Belarus border. So it's, you know, 30 kilometers. So with simple how we can shoot and we can receive the fire here?

So that's a problem. That's one problem. Another problem is that we had adversities from both sides. From east, it's Russian ally Belarus. And in the West, we have the Kalinigrad Oblasts, we have this kind of Russian enclave with the huge military forces over there. So two-directional, or threats from both directions. So this is a challenge for us.

And another thing is what they have a Swalke gap. So it's a narrow corridor for us. And I think Poland and then Lithuania as a land, the line of communication. So it's very, very important for us. And if you lose that, so not only then it would be cut off, but entire Voltaic State. So Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

will be cut off of its land corridor. So different could be threats. And we are ready for it to counter those threats. And we're looking in different scenarios. One of the, let's say, most dangerous scenario, if Russia would scale immediately and attack us. So because distances are short, they can easily close the Swaliki gap or take our capital.

So we need to prevent that. So that's why our intelligence is working very, very hard. We are talking about our allies in order to observe what is this to monitor, what is the situation in Belarus and in Russia in Kaliningrad. Are we units moving? Are they training in exact locations? Or we have maybe observing something different, something, but it's not normal.

So we are monitoring indicators. And if indicators are okay, so we say it's okay. So we don't want to be attack surprise because we need to be prepared for that attack. Okay. And being prepared, that means for us we need to be ready. And if it's a small attack, so we can block attack easily because we have units and forces. prepared for that and on a standby. But if it's a larger scale attack, so we need our allies also

because we will fight, no matter what, we will fight. But if the enemy is significant, so we need also a significant force to block it and to stop. So walk me through that. Let's talk about the most dramatic crisis scenario. So Waki Gap blocked air defense bubbles over Klinograd, St. Petersburg, Belarus, nobody gets in, nobody gets out. How do you survive? How do you survive a major even if you saw it coming for a few days. It's easy, I would say. Easy to answer. Easy to answer.

Not easy to fight, but easy to answer. Because we are ready to fight. And our armed forces are prepared for that. So our training our troopers that we need to block the walls losing any centimeter or any inch of our land. So on the borderline, we will block the enemy. So this is a task for us, no matter the costs, but our troops will go there and fight. So and by telling blocking the enemies, it's not only,

by digging the trenches and walking. Also, we need to use the firepower in order to block. And also, we need to also to provide deep strikes into Belarus or Kalinigrad area. So it's not only just, like really blocking small arms, fire, and our troopers standing on the border.

So we need to fight and we will provide the targeting, which is much deeper into Belarus and Kaliningrad rather than only on the borderline. I see. Lithuania is a country of some 3 million people. You'll be filling a full division now, is the plan for the army. As I understand it, you've got a armor brigade, a motorized brigade, and a light brigade. Is that correct?

Yeah, so our division consists from three brigades, heavy brigade, iron wool brigade, medium brigade, it's a griffin brigade or we call it Jermitia. And in the U.S., medium brigade, it will be Oaksditee or Highland. Where do you get the people that you need, the manpower, to fully flesh out a unit like that? Yeah, I know. It's society. So we have a conscription service, and those who want to join the professional armed forces, we could stay after the conscription service, or we can enter or join armed forces, like sign the contract and say that. So, so this is the idea. But you need to understand that in peacetime, during your peace time, we keep only 50, 55% our structure manned, or other percent. that's 45% and more, they come from reserve.

So we need to have a bigger reserve force. And that's why every year we have a conscription service. So have men, not women, what it's compulsory service, but our infrastructure, our installation, cannot take 100% of those conscripts that acquire the year of 18 to 24. So we have kind of lottery, computer selects, because we upload all entire list of,

for entire list, with the names of draftees, let's say, and computer selects who's coming there. So every year we attract three to four thousand individuals, and 10, 11% of those we sign a professional contest after the service. Those who finish the service, we go to the reserve, active reserve.

So they stay in that active reserve for 15 years. But every five years, we call them, back and do the refresher training. So this is the system. After 15 years, so we stay in the reserve. So the idea is what we, when delay comes, we need to really to mobilize the forces and fill the structure.

So 45% of something we need to build, and this is how we'll have the war-arm structure. And we understand that from a very fast moment and that it will be, let's say, we'll be in the field and we have a contact with enemy, we'll receive losses. So we need also to have reserve to restore our losses. So we count it mathematically how many a day it would be, let's say if the front is entire, entire our borderline, et cetera.

This is a math, and then we count it and we see it. So that's why we need to have a really big reserve in order to protect our country. So we count on our society. We will fight no matter what. and then we have equipment, we are training for that, and we are prepared. Seems strange to be sitting with you here in the middle of peaceful Vilnius. There's people going to work around us, going about their daily lives,

and talking about when D-Day comes, but this is how you think about it. We need to think like that because, you know, armed forces need to be ready, and there is no joke. Our independent is not a joke, so we lost our independence twice already in the past century, so we say never again. So we don't want to be occupied, and we see what's happening in Ukraine, in Georgia. So we do not want the same situation or our previous history back to this country. We saw a population.

We saw a lot of torture and killing of peoples here. So we lost a lot of our society. Our family still remember that. Our grandmas, grandpas, we told stories, and we grow with those stories. That's why we really don't want to be occupied or not independent again. So, yeah, maybe it's peaceful, maybe it looks okay. So because we are on duty and we want that peace duty to continue. And we are working with that peace would continue.

What about your family? What stories does your family tell about the occupation or deportations or things like that? It was a quite interesting story, actually. my wife's family, so part of them were imprisoned, part of them escaped to the US, we live in US, and others were taking, where the land was taken from them. So we could actually, because we were farmers, we were a bit richer people, so they lost the land,

and then some of them were in prison, some of them escaped. My family, so was not very rich, but we were simple, small but smaller farmers, but my granddad went into like a Protestant, like freedom fight, and he was killed in the forest. So my grandma, she was left alone with the kids. So it's a tough life. Your grandfather was killed by the Soviets.

Yeah. So that's sad story. So, you know, and then have those stories in our family, it has those stories around us. So we cannot really say, okay, it doesn't mean. It's a political thing, you know. if, let's say, whatever occupation could materialize in any political matter. I mean, because it was played also after World War II, you know,

it was like Russia would tell us, they're, okay, it was, you know, peaceful occupations, not even occupation, if he wanted to join the Soviet Union, but it's not true. As I say, politically, it could sound something different maybe, but in reality, occupation is occupation when indifferent or your adverse Islamic forces

come into your country, kill people, imprison people or take their property, etc. So it's not normal. It cannot be and it cannot be like that. So each individual deserve to live free,

deserve to have a right to save, choose a university to study and then easily planned it has a her career. So nobody could say, yeah, you cannot do this or that because you are whatever, Lithuanian or Ukrainian or etc. We used to have that. So never again. This episode of School of War is brought to you by Maven Smart System,

administered by OSW CDAO, powered by the Palantir platform. Maven isn't an app. It's a builder ecosystem. Right now across the Joint Force, thousands of uniform service members are pointing AI coding agents at their hardest problems and building the tools they need themselves, targeting workflows, intel products, battle management. No ticket, no vendor, no wait. The warfighter closest to the fight is now the one building for it. That's how you fight at the speed of war. As you can hear, things are tense in this part of the world.

Just in the last few weeks, the NATO Combat Air Patrol shot down a dozen. drone that had flown into Lithuania, and the Vilnius airport had to close for several hours after balloons launched from Belarus disrupted its airspace. Meanwhile, American policy is disorientingly fluid. The Pentagon's been signaling for months that it would like to draw down troop levels in Europe, even as Russian, quote-unquote, gray zone warfare accelerates. At the same time, President Trump appears to be brokering new arrangements of his own, including potentially a new American base in Poland. Despite the threats from the east and the example of Ukraine, Lithuanian defense minister Robertus Kaunis tells me that his country isn't scared.

The minister and I sat down to discuss the nature of his country's military preparations and his conversations with the United States about how best to establish deterrence. Minister, thanks so much for doing this. Hello, good morning. It's been reported that the American Department of War circulated a questionnaire earlier this summer as part of its force posture review for NATO. What was your response to that questionnaire? What case did you make for Lithuania to be host to troops?

How many troops? What would you like to see? We would like to see as much as possible. It would be a best scenario, but we also understand that should be a military logic here. And well, you know, I feel very comfortable about those questioners because Lithuania is a model ally. We did a lot and we will proceed in this way. We are already investing more than 5% of GDP to our core military need. We are enhancing and modernizing our armed forces, building all necessary infrastructures as training rounds, for example, military towns.

We're providing best. best training conditions I believe in in Europe for our allies United States and we receive this information this is not only our feeling we receive this information from our allies and also we enhance our host nation support package we are paying for stationing of our allies troops here in in Lithuania so I believe that we already providing all necessary what is very important to meet our allies here in Lithuania. By the way, Lithuania is also, we are not only asking for support.

We are not security consumers. We're also providing and contributing to worldwide security. For example, Strait of Hormuz. We did all necessary homeworks. We received a mandate of our... mandate in our parliament and we are able to start with mission in Strait of Hormuz as a sap actually. You're a software businessman by background. You've also paid close attention to the war in Ukraine and how that's proceeded. I understand that there is a high-tech aspect to plans for the defense of Lithuania.

In NATO language, this comes across as the Eastern Front deterrence initiative. or Eastern Flank Deterance Initiative. Explain, if you would, how this technological layer is going to function as a part of the defense of this country. Unfortunately, we have very unpredictable neighbors, Belarus, Russia. And our country, small country, we're only 3 million of population. So in order to protect our country, we need to build a defense line. And the fence line should be built not only with standard counter mobility equipments like Dragon Teeth or something like this,

but also what we see in Ukraine, all modern ways also should be developed and installed in our borders. What I should mention that among all our borders should be installed an unmaned platform. Technology, technology that will enhance a standard defense capabilities like artillery, tanks, infantry vehicles and so on. They should be enhanced by technology and sensors, artificial intelligence, capability to receive information, faster and make decision faster should be created here in our eastern front line, actually. Ukraine is producing millions of drones a year. Lithuania, obviously a smaller country, but to make the system that you just described function, you would need a certain amount of drones, sensors, let's just start with those two things. Do you have enough right now to make this concept work?

Well, first of all, we already integrated drones and anti-dron's capabilities in our armed forces. Ukraine, each day, sending around 4,000,000 drones to Russia. At the moment, Lithuania not requesting such amount, but what is very important to have all necessary possibilities to produce as much as possible as fast as possible. So now we are focusing on R&D. Now we are focusing to establish a new production lines in Lithuania together with Ukraine, together with the United States, together with other NATO countries, and has a possibility to understand and involve together with Ukraine. What we are

building right now in Lithuania is single layer of, let's say, ecosystem counter drones. What I will explain. We have many radars, we have many acoustic sensors, cameras, whatever is necessary to detect, but they all are fragmented at the moment. We need to build everything as a single system, combine all possible detection capabilities to a single system, then use artificial intelligence, intelligent, for faster understanding what we are detecting, and faster decision-making.

Then we should combine kinetic or non-kinetic capabilities to send data and to send requests to engage, for example. During peace time, it's impossible to spread armed forces across country. It's impossible. Nobody does this. we need to build ways where, for example, places, where we have to build places where interceptors should be deployed. And those places can be around country. And when we have detection,

when we have a single understanding of air picture, we can transfer data to those places and start interceptors, to counter Shahed, for example, from a center in Lithuania and work near our border. So you can achieve efficiency with technology. If American forces in Europe do end up being drawn down, one possible aspect of that is buttressing deterrence through nuclear deterrence. How do you think about that? Would Lithuania ever want to host American nuclear weapons on its soil?

Well, I cannot answer directly to this question because it is a very sensitive question. But as a Minister of Defense, I must arrange everything what is necessary and have all necessary tools in my toolbox to protect my country. And what Lithuania now doing is amending our... Constitution that all possible ways of defense could be used to defend our country. So before nuclear weapons would have been prohibited by the Constitution and now that Constitution is being changed to permit them? Yes, I mean our Constitution not allowing to you to place to deploy any weapons of mass destruction in our

country. So we're trying change this understanding, this opinion, in case it would be necessary, then we could use all possible ways to protect ourselves. As we've traveled around your country, we've been hosted by the Lithuanian Rifleman's Union, which as you know are ordinary citizens out learning military skills. You have a whole of society approach here to national defense in the event of a crisis. How do you prepare Lithuanian society, not just the military, but ordinary people for the threats that they might face? Well, we're not big country, so naturally our armed forces are not big. So total defense is the way, how we protect our country. We're speaking not about a few

We are speaking about few millions of people who are protecting their home. And Rifleman Union, all the initiative, very welcome in Lithuania, and we work together with our armed forces to train, to enhance skills, and provide all necessary support to our armed forces. forces. We're also working with our skilled people, for example, IT developers, engineers, medics, other type of critical profession who will support our defense and who will provide necessary service during crisis. And as I understand it, schoolchildren too. How are school children being prepared for crisis. Well at the moment we are teaching them first of all history to remember

where threat coming through. When I speak with my colleagues in West Minister of Defense not everyone understand that Russia is real threat because everyone have the challenges during their day day life and they country, while we understand that Russia didn't change during those years, and they will continue to be aggressive. So we need to learn from our history. And we provide this information to our partners, but we have to provide this information to our child too.

And what specifically are you teaching them? I mean, aside from Russia has a history of aggression, what are the key points you're trying to get across to these kids? Well, you know, maybe there is nothing very specific. You must understand what Russia is and that we were occupied by Russia for 50 years. Fifty year we live in occupation. They tried to change our language. not allowing to use Lithuanian language.

They deported many people from Lithuania to Siberia. They did very painful action to our economy, and so on, so on, so on. So we are owners of our home. We are owners of Lithuanian. Lithuanian people are owners of Lithuanian. So we need to understand this, first of all, and then to understand that without home, who we are done. So this feeling, first of all, need to be installed in our society to arrange total defense when it will be necessary. And it's not just history for the school kids, right?

There's military skills as well. Well, not military as probably you understand. Nobody learns children how to use weapons, for example. No, but we are learning them how to survive, example. What equipment you should have, how to use them, how to help to protect your family, for example, that you have to move to shelter

when you hear alarm or something like this. What age does this start? This next year we will start seven, eight class. How do kids react to this kind of stuff? Not negative. Not negative. And what I heard from some of child from 11, 12 class, that they would receive more interesting lessons, for example,

some trainees in Polygon, training areas, and so on, so on, so on, so on. But probably we will step further if it will be necessary to learn them how to protect the families and their selves. We've heard your message to the United States and your thoughts on NATO deployments here. What's your message to Vladimir Putin? We don't fear you. We understand who are you and with unfair. NATO is united. And all action, what Vladimir Putin creates, works opposite. The example is Sweden and Finland. They join NATO because of aggression from Russia. So after new aggression actions in Germany, in Poland, in Bolton, in Bolton,

States, NATO will become more united. A country of 3 million people isn't afraid? No. We are not afraid because we remember our history. We are in our home and we will protect our home. Lithuania has had a colorful history with China in recent years. And of course, as we see, Chinese support is key for Russia being able to continue its war effort in Ukraine. There was a moment of real tension there a few years ago over recognition of Taiwan. I'm sure you remember these issues.

Where do things stand between Lithuania and China today? Well, it's a tough question and probably answer would be better from a Minister of Foreign Affairs. Well, I believe that we should normalize our... possibilities to live in a single planet as much as possible, but still we need to understand that without China, Russia probably won't be able to continue his war in Ukraine. So I would like to invite China to reduce support to Russia. Riga, the capital city of Latvia, enjoys more standoff distance from a hostile border than does Vilnius, but it's still only about a hundred

miles from Belarus. That's about the distance from Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia. The threats feel just as real in this Baltic nation. I sat down with Latvian foreign minister Baibraja to discuss the sub-conventional attacks, as she calls it, that Russia is launching on her country, the prospect that matters could get worse and how Latvia is responding. Minister, thank you so much for doing this. I heard, as we were preparing to do this interview this morning that this building has quite a history. In addition to its various roles in Latvian political history, I understand it was the headquarters of the German army in World War II. Nazi, yeah. The Nazi army. It was the headquarters of the Latvian Communist Party during the Soviet

occupation. Soviet-Latvian, yeah. Yeah, Soviet-Latvian party. This is a country with the turbulent history, and the moment is turbulent that we're in right now for an American audience who has, general knowledge about the war in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin and things like that, but probably not a lot of specific knowledge about the situation here in the Baltics. What does the strategic landscape look like to you from where you sit? Proximity is relative because when we look at the map, so distances actually Vienna is closer to Ukrainian borders than that way is. So, you know, but in the same time, it's felt acutely here because we do have an external border of the EU and NATO with Russia and Belarus. So obviously whatever Russia is doing in Ukraine, people watch with great

anxiety and concern. And this type of war of aggression in its fifth year on the European soil has not been seen since the Second World War. So obviously across Europe, it has resonated, it has left an impact and it's very scary to tell you, frankly. And depending on how things go in Ukraine, how does that affect security here in the Baltics? Like, what are the different scenarios that you think about and what are the consequences here? We are a member of NATO, and NATO has not been challenged as an alliance since its foundation, 1949. Of course, Latvian history, as a country, we were as a state established in 1918, along with the Baltics, Finland, and a number of other countries, Poland, in Europe. And we grew, we were very successful. We were

This fall, you know, GDP growth, GDP growth was higher than Finnish in 1939 and 40. And then the Soviet occupation took place of the Baltics as a result of the deal between Stalin and Hitler. So after 1940, there was 50 years of occupation, which the US never recognized as legal. So the West never recognized it. And we were able to bring down not only the Soviet Union, but the whole sort of communist system and restore independence of the country. So, and this building is actually a symbol of that,

because this was the last seat of the Latvian government before the occupation. So now we are here in the foreign ministry again. And so that history, of course, shows to us and teaches us that we should never take anything for granted. So being a member of NATO, being a member of the EU, respected member of international society, We sit on the UN Security Council.

Now, it's some things that we cherish, but we also do what's needed nationally, which is the first step. So 5% of GDPs that goes for defense at a national level goes to hard-cap. So it's core defense expenditure. It's not for the roads. It's not, you know, for the soft stuff,

but actual what our military needs. And then, of course, with the NATO, we also encourage everyone to invest in defense to make sure that we have those capabilities across the alliance, but also in Europe in particular because of the supply chains, because of logistics. And we are really happy we have another 13 allies with their forces here in Latvia. So we train together, we exercise together, so that readiness and deterrence in action matter. And we also have US troops here, so it's great. We have the Allied air patrolling.

We have our ships and regional ships in the sea. So, you know, it's a proper sort of alliance in action. Speaking of these air patrols, I understand the Italian Air Force shot down a drone in your airspace just a few weeks ago, right? Yes, we have had a number of drones that have been. misguided incidents. The first drone was a Russian drone Shahid in 24, so two years ago in September. And it actually traveled via Belarus. It was disabled by Ukrainians and then it flew via Belarus in space and fell. And then this year we had a number of Ukrainian drones that were going into Russia, but then Russia disabled them, misguided them,

and they were misdirected into our airspace. Some of them flew in, flew out, some of them fell, and then the people were really unhappy because they were not taken down. And then with the Allies, it was great that we decided altogether that actually procedure has to be changed, and they were able to take down. Romanians took one drone down in Estonia,

Italians and French here, so it's been good. But the task is to have this layer their defense systems that can take out drones as soon as they approach. To illustrate the seriousness of the situation here, I want to ask a personal question. One never wants to ask a foreign minister to her age, but you don't, I think, fall into the typical category of military age. And yet I understand that you recently joined Latvia's National Guard. What was the thinking behind that? Well, I have wanted to do that long time ago, but as ambassador, I was serving abroad, so that was difficult to do. So as soon as I returned from my NATO post, I was Assistant Secretary General at NATO during Stoltenberg's time.

I actually applied and I joined. They accepted me. It's been great. I mean, physically it was demanding, but I've done sports all my life. I was a javelin-trow for Latvian team. so trained, you know, twice a day and more for quite a long time. So I try to do what I can. It's a voluntary force.

It's part of the National Armed Forces. And tomorrow, the day after it, tomorrow, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, most likely I will be serving. And hopefully they let me out for some of the most important meetings, but I've agreed with the Prime Minister and others that, yes, it's a big exercise that we have annual big exercise so I should be able to do that. Say more about your training and what is your job in the guard? So I did the basic training is what you go through to qualify. So everybody does that and it involves everything. It involves orientation in the forest. It involves the ability to communicate, the medical training. It involves the walk with heavy bags

through the forests at nights, you know, so night orientation. And So we did all that. Then I was supposed to go into engineering, but it would require another three weeks of actually being in the camp, which then the prime minister said maybe it's a bit too long. You have another job in the government, you know? Which I guess is correct. So I didn't even sort of push too much. Stuck in the infantry. And then, yes, I'm actually in signals currently, but in the signals, that part, that's, that.

that prepares and does the preparations of the exercises, the big exercises, and then also the operational part, so that's great. So if there were some sort of security crisis or alert, what happens? Depends what job I have. I see, okay. If I administer, I would obviously have to do my job. I see, I see. The forests you speak of, I spent a little bit of time out in them, both here, but also

in Lithuania in the last few days, and they're very beautiful, but sort of spooky, too, because it's mossy, so it's quiet. In America, the forests are very noisy when you move around, but from a military perspective, I can see you kind of move around here without making much noise at all. This must be familiar terrain for you, though. That's a task, yeah.

You move around without light, without sound. That's how it's supposed to be. Because the enemy can do that. There's a general sense that with the Russian army bogged down in Ukraine, that the biggest threats here are the hybrid threats, which we were just speaking about, the drones, to say more about that. But also there's this question of a limited incursion. This has been

increasingly mentioned back in the United States that if a stalemate continues in Ukraine, Putin may seek to somehow upend the situation by trying something, not entirely clear what, but more than the sort of simmer of hybrid warfare, less than a full invasion. What sort of specifics do you worry about in there and what is your position on those? There are all types of scenarios that are being constantly tested here at a national level to prevent them happening. That's the main task, that's the task of the redness. Because what we see Russia doing across Europe but also beyond is all types of subversive actions.

You can call them hybrid, but they are not much hybrid in them. And if you call them hybrid, what it reminds you of some hybrid car, you know. For example, Leipzig attack in the airport was state-sponsored terrorism in our book, because it was a state which organized it very clearly through its services. It was an armed drone and it was attempting to attack a civilian airport. So pretty straightforward. But there's also attempts at arson, so real actions that might have consequences people's lives or as a Polish fire minister said they attempted to derail a train yeah which then

we can only guess what would it be or there was a burning of the warehouse here uh supplying ukraine uh actually run by businesses it was not even you know a military or anything just civilian goods and and so and so and so on so so russia is trying not only informational warfare or cyber warfare, but actual conventional actions, but below the military threshold. So it's not a military attack. What it means is the readiness, both by our security services, to understand, to have the indicators, to have data, to really carefully monitor what is happening, share intelligence with our allies, neighbors, have the whole society readiness, keep.

our eyes and ears open for anything unusual. Private sector involvement, because a lot of functions are provided by the private sector to make sure that they take security also seriously, both basic security but also cyber and others. So it's a sort of higher level of readiness to make sure that we both understand and are able to counteract and prevent. That's the most important thing. And so the recognition of the issues is the most important things that we do have such a threat. If you don't like the term hybrid warfare, what should we call it? We call it the sub-conventional attacks, because that's what it is. It's a warfare, you can say sub-conventional warfare.

It is part of Russia's warfare doctrine. So they first try to prepare. Also, remember in Ukraine already since Ukraine established its independence, you know, they tried to penetrate businesses, corrupts, be present everywhere. And then, of course, Ukrainians decided that they also wanted to be part of European family. So that's how the Maidan started when that time president decided not to sign European Association agreement. So the Maidan uprising, the people's uprising started. And that's how the president of that time was kicked out in college. And then Russia, through

its green man, illegally and ex-K Crimea, then they started the eastern part sort of uprising, which was not an uprising, but organized Russian subversive action. That's how that whole thing started. So they first crept through all types of other parts. But again, they misread it then and they misreaded it 22 because it didn't change Ukrainian will to be free, independent, European and democratic. You travel frequently to the United States, just served at a senior level in the United Nations.

Do you think that people in the United States, whether in government or simply people who follow the international scene but aren't in positions of responsibility. Do you think they understand just how tense things are here? Well, we don't feel it's tense here because we live our normal lives. It's just the overall indicators, the way Russia acts are different. So that's why we, in the positions of responsibility, also sort of. prepare and warn our European colleagues and others and you saw that Germany did what it had what it did you know closing Russian consulate kicking out the spies and

making sure that its security is is properly acted upon we closed the Russian consulates here already after the invasion of 22 in Ukraine to make sure that we don't have those actors that that can create problems. And so that is a way, you know, we take security seriously. But I cannot say that the situation is tense. Businesses are growing. Economy grew 3%.

The exports have grown 15% in the first half a year. So it's, you know, there's a lot of economic activity investments coming in. Culture, sports, people traveling, you know, life is good. I cannot say it's tense. just as officials, of course, we take security seriously and we do what's needed to be done. Speaking of imports and exports, I saw that there's now a 300% tariff on Russian and Belarusian wheat. What's behind that? Yeah, the Russians have closed down black sea ports of Ukraine.

And that is a lifeline for African countries. And that is a lifeline also for Ukraine because of the exports. They have had the best harvest in 25 years. And Ukraine then did the same for the Russian ports to make sure that Russia cannot profit from there. But what Russians are trying to do now is through the railway to push the harvest, their wheat, through the ports in Europe. And that's why very clearly we said that this is not what's supposed to happen. So we are discouraging using of our transit and ports because formally the transit of grain, is not prohibited. It's not in EU sanctions or national sanctions, but through this, it's a

behavior of change that we are trying to achieve. The grain would come over land and go out through your seaports. What Russians are trying to do is to bring it through the railway and the Baltic ports, but that would mean money in Russian budget, so we don't want that. We call it bloody grain from Russia. So they can export through their own Baltic. sea port in Oslova. Somebody should probably tell President Trump that you're tariffing things. He's a big fan of tariffs. You should tell him you got the idea from him.

Yeah, we don't know if we actually have to tariff. It's, as I said, it's a political decision to discourage the use of the infrastructure. If things were to take a turn for the worst in Ukraine, perhaps catastrophically for the worse in the coming year or so, none of us know what's going to happen, what would be the consequences for the balance of power in Europe? How do you see the European strategic situation changing? if Russia, let's just say wins. If Russia, one way or the other,

succeeds in destroying Ukraine as it is today, whether that's through actually capturing things or a pro-Kremlin government comes into power there, wins the war. So what Russia is trying to do is subjugate Ukraine to wipe it off the map in a more sort of emotional expression

to erase its sovereignty, you know, from all the objectives that we see that Russia has stated, that are its objectives in Ukraine. First, they tried to reach them by, as I said, corruption, political involvement. They didn't succeed. Then they tried the limited sort of green men annexation, and now they try full-scale war. And they're in the fifth year of the war.

They are not succeeding. And if anything, Ukrainian will to be free is stronger than ever. So Russia will not succeed in enslaving Ukraine. They will not succeed. And Ukrainian will to resist is there. I've been there quite a number of times. I was there just a month ago. Yesterday we hosted high-level delegation of Ukrainians here.

It's pretty straightforward. They don't have any intention to give in to Russia, and they will do what's necessary to resist. What is your assessment of Putin's worldview? You're sort of compelled to be a student of the Russians being this close and having to deal with them as your neighbor. What is he up to here beyond just Ukraine? What is his vision of Russia in the world?

You know, I'm not some Putin whisper, so I can explain to you about Latvian worldview, but I won't go into explaining Russian or Putin's worldview. His nickname in Latvia is Butcher in Kremlin. Okay, well, that says a lot right there. Well, let's talk about Americans in NATO. Latvia is one of the leading spenders in NATO, as you said, in terms of percentage of GDP spent on defense.

host NATO forces. My understanding is you'd like to host more of them. There is an ongoing force posture review. I understand there was a questionnaire circulated in August. What is your understanding of where that review stands? What would you like to see the outcome be? What are outcomes that worry you? President Trump calls us model allies. It goes through all the decisions that we have made in our relationship with the US also politically, you know, with both parties, it's perfect relationship and we work really well. U.S. investments here are growing. So there is a very clear message that has been from all the American administrations that Europe needs to invest more in defense.

And this administration has repeated that message and acted upon it. So posture review is one of the ways how it expresses itself. So yes, Europeans are adding many more forces. like F-35s, a very mighty capabilities that was not there before, but also all types of other pretty conventional, but also unconventional capabilities. So every administration conduct its posture review, conducts its defense and national security assessment, and indeed the challenge of China is huge for all of us.

So it's not surprising that the U.S. not only concentrates its mind, but also practical aspects of work of how to ensure that there is no unpleasant surprises wherever they arise. US will have its interests in Europe and New Atlantic because throughout the centuries it has been seen that we are bound together. And that security and defense relationship is as strong as ever. But indeed, for European welfare states to make sure that, say, invest in defense is crucial. It's crucial because those threats that arise can arise anywhere. It can be in Germany, but it has been in Britain. We have seen burning of warehouses in Bulgaria, the ammunition factories.

So you can have, in Chequia, so you can have the whole set of various activities. So security defense investment is crucially important for our own European security, but also for making sure that deterrence and defense message resonates strongly, not only across Atlantic, but also to the east and further east. So this is where we support President Trump's message, where, from other hand, post-review has to be also such that it doesn't create wrong impression, in some heads in the East, what it is about. And also that it doesn't result in some type of capability replacement that is automatic,

but it still creates a deterrence effect that is what we want. What are the wrong impressions that you're worried about potentially coming in the East? You know, Putin miscalculated in 22. because all his decision-making was based on the fact that they will be very quickly occupying Kiev and Ukraine will give up. And that's why in the fifth year of the war, they are not succeeding. Economy is really not progressing well by all numbers. GDP growth below 1%, so basically no growth at all. Inflation in double digits or close to double digits.

the interest and loans double digit. So no private sector activity except spending on the war. And spending on the war is huge. I mean, official numbers, official statistics don't show it, but it's about 50% of federal budget, even more. So that is indeed something where the next spiral brings next spiral, because you don't create income, it's not productive. CIA director John Ratcliffe recently went to Moscow to deliver some kind of message,

have some kind of conversation. He went by way of Riga. What was the purpose of that trip to your understanding? What was the outcome? Well, that is classified as far as our national system is concerned. So as for the U.S. assessment, you would have to ask our U.S. allies. Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner didn't go through Riga. No, but they flew above Latvian.

I'll ask it that slightly broader way. This recent effort at shuttle diplomacy, what do you think its prospects are? Listen, we all want peace. That's the main sort of premise that we all base our efforts on. The Ukrainians are ready to peace, Americans ready for peace, Europeans are ready for peace. The only person who is not ready for peace is a butchering Kremlin. So how do we get him to be serious about peace?

Stop bombing Ukraine, but also stop demanding those objectives that he can't achieve on the battlefield than trying to achieve it at the negotiations table because that's not going to happen. So he would have to give up some of the objectives that he has put up there. And that requires, from one hand, yes, showing that there is a track, which is a track, of having a conversation, but from other hand, really supplying Ukraine, supporting Ukraine with what it needs in its self-defense, but also pushing Russian economy more through sanctions, limiting Russian military production, so impacts of sanctions, and also denying them income technology and partnerships to evade sanctions.

Where are they most vulnerable? I mean, if you were in Washington making policy, what would you focus on amidst that list of things that you just outlined? I think the first two is the most essential because the sort of denying them, for example, exports. So currently with Hormus crisis, the prices of oil and gas have risen. That brings additional income in Russian budget. So that sort of, that's why our interest to establish Hormos is there.

That's why we have committed to support U.S. allies also by sending our presence there whenever it's possible. And in the same time also making sure that, for example, Russians are able still to produce ballistic missiles. And there are, we see clearly from the Ukrainian analysis and information that have provided, there are elements and parts that come from Europe and the US and other countries. So that should be stopped and that can be of that ecosystem, payment system, financial system can be limited. And then, of course, the enabling parts are those countries, those companies that provide the sort of base for trading with Russia and still supplying certain elements that matter.

Final question for you, and thank you. You've been very generous with your time. There's obviously on one level tremendous solidarity here in the Baltics, which you can see. membership in the National Guard is a good illustration of that. There are also fissures within society. There's a Russian speaking population. I saw that Latvia has just banned books published in, you'll correct me on the details here if I get this round, but banned books published in Russia and Belarus from,

you tell me what the regulation is and why, because it was striking and I think speaks to maybe concerns about some of the domestic fissures on the question of Russia. No, we systemically try to close down imports from Russia and Belarus to limit the money going there. So at the national level we have decreased imports, lowered the imports by 92%. So there is like still 8% of the imports left. And that's why when we looked at what was in the imports from the last year, we saw that

there were books, video games, you know, newspapers, magazines, stuff like that. So the consensus view in the society and in the government was we don't need to import books from Russia and Belarus. It would be like importing books from Hitler's Germany. So it's not about languages. It's not about literature or anything because they are available. I mean, the literature in any language is available here or elsewhere. That is no problem. People can read and publish and do what they need.

do. There is all the capability, but we need to really limit the amount of money going into Russia. So that was the main decision. That's why those customs codes specifically was introduced by the cabinet in the import ban list. So nothing ideological, but very practical decisions. That's simple. But no, on the society here, our constitution is pretty straightforward. Everybody with a Latvian nationality is a part of Latvian. people and we have Latvian people from all types of different languages and colors all around the world. I mean, there's a big Latvian community in the US and they are our citizens, there are people who don't even speak Latvian. I was there as a summer at the big Latvian

Song and Dance Festival of the US. And... Where was this? It was in Grand Rapids. Ah, all right. It was great. I mean, the whole city was taken over by Latvians and literary. And And there are people who don't even speak Latvian anymore, but they are still very Latvians. They still feel very Latvian. So we also have people here whose first language was Russian, but Latvian is the official language. So they go through the education system in Latvian. The official language with the institutions is Latvian. In privately life, they can speak any other language.

That's fine. Nobody cares or limits, whether it's Russian or Ukrainian. We have a big Ukrainian community here also, but also Estonian, Lithuanians, Poles. My husband is Dutch. We speak English at home. So, you know, it's our private life. We speak in private life what we want. But then when I go to a local government or when I have the correspondence with police or public institutions, of course, it's in Latvian. But it's all digital. So I haven't been to local government, I think, in five years physically.

We have a sort of centralized digital system through which. in Latvia through which you do all the applications and everything. Parking permits, payments, construction permits, you know, cadastre registry, literally everything. I signed cabinet documents through my phone. I haven't been, you know, doing that by hand for a long, long time. What a time to be alive. Minister, thank you so much for coming on School of War.

I really appreciate it. Welcome to my beautiful country. Come back again. Thank you. This episode of School of War is also presented by Strato Launch, a leading pure play Hypersonics company. Hypersonic weapons systems travel five times faster than the speed of sound, making them difficult to predict, track, and defeat.

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