Science Friday - What is the Kelvin wave on the West Coast?

Episode Date: October 9, 2026

A Kelvin wave has reached California and is creeping up the West Coast, raising both sea levels and concerns from government officials. This kind of massive internal wave begins in the western Pacific Ocean and then travels eastward to the Americas along the equator, and then up and down the coastline. While it might raise sea levels up to 12 inches, it stays below the surface instead of crashing on the shore.Host Flora Lichtman speaks to oceanographer Andrew Leising to get the lowdown on what exactly a Kelvin wave is, and how wary West Coasters should be.Guest:Dr. Andrew Leising is a research oceanographer at NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center in San Diego, California.Transcripts for each episode are available within 1-3 days at sciencefriday.com.  Subscribe to this podcast. Follow our show on Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and Bluesky @scifri and sign up for our newsletters. Got a science question that’s keeping you up at night? Call us: 877-472-4374 Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hey, it's Flora Lickman, and you're listening to Science Friday. There is a strange ocean phenomenon creeping up on the coast of California. Calvin waves, kind of the latest buzzy word. You've probably heard a lot about them. We're worried about them coming our way with Aligno. They're invisible underwater waves and could raise sea levels along the California coastline by up to a foot. So what does that exactly mean? Yeah, what exactly does all this?

mean. Here to give us the Kelvin waves low down, the who, what, where, when, and how concerned we should be is my guest, Dr. Andrew Lysing, an oceanographer who studies marine heat waves at NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center in San Diego, California. Welcome to Science Friday, Andrew. Hi, Flora. So, I mean, I feel like ocean physics is really having a moment right now. Is this Kelvin's wave news fun or annoying? It is. It is. Actually, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's hilarious because, you know, it's a kind of thing that us oceanographers have known about for a long time. But it's the kind of thing in general we've kind of shied away from talking about because it gets a little bit technical. It's something that happens at every time there's an El Nino, but it can happen in other times and other places too.

But so it's actually kind of exciting to see this sort of breakthrough to the popular press. It's pretty cool. Wasn't on your bingo card, sounds like. No, absolutely not. Nobody's bingo card. We're going to talk about Kelvin Ways for the next six months. We'll have to come back to why it's having a moment now. But first of all, just take me under the sea.

Sure. Give me a visual. Like, where is this wave? How fast is it moving? And where is it headed? So where is the wave? It starts at the far western end of the equator in the Pacific Ocean. Okay.

And this is the main way that El Nino affects what goes on on the U.S. West Coast. and actually through a lot of the South American coast too. So what happens is essentially during a not El Nino time, the normal times, the wind is blowing from the east towards the west right at the equator. It's pushing all this warm water towards the west. Okay. And it kind of, it actually almost piles up. You can think of it as piling up like a mountain of water. And what happens when an El Nino starts is that it disrupts the normal sort of atmospheric pattern.

And that's the main thing in El Nino is. It's an atmospheric disturbance. So it disrupts that wind. And when the wind stops blowing towards the west, it actually changes the currents a little bit right at that surface. When that wind stops pushing that water, it sloshes back towards the east. And that sloshing is essentially what causes this wave. But the wave isn't like what most people think of as a wave at the surface. Okay, this wave, it's a type of.

wave known as an internal wave. And we call it an internal wave because it's deep in the ocean. It's not the surface. It's down deep. And what's really cool that most people don't think about when they think about waves is how waves transmit energy. They don't transmit matter. Okay. So these internal waves, they're not necessarily moving a lot of water. They're moving a little bit of water at the surface back towards the east, all on the equator. But what they're really doing is they're sending this internal wave that thickens the sort of normal surface layer of warm water. And most people can understand that you're at the surface, it's warm. If you dive down deep, it gets cold, right? And so what happens is this wave, it's not necessarily it's moving a lot of water from the west towards the east.

It's thickening that layer at the surface. So, okay, so it's thickening this, this warm water patch. And then why does that amount to more water? Why does that amount to higher sea level? Ah, because just like everything, when you heat something up, it expands, okay? And so if you're increasing the amount of warm water, that layer of warm water, if it gets thicker at the surface, the entire column of water, you can think from the surface all the way down to the deep, that whole thing is expanding and it sits basically taller than it used to. And that's why sea level goes up. Exactly, exactly. And so the cool thing is that this wave is so big. that it essentially is called a planetary gravity wave in a sense.

And it's because it's so massive, right? And Lord Kelvin described this back in 1900s, where that's why it's called the Kelvin wave. And it perfectly travels from the west to the east. And then it gets really neat because then it breaks apart and travels up the coast to us. So, okay, so it's very helpful. I feel like I have a much better sense of it now. So this wave is a symptom of El Nino. That's right.

How common are they? Okay, so what happens is that, you know, even though we declared it El Nino on June 11th, these atmospheric disturbances that can cause these pulses that form the Kelvin waves, those can happen at any time. In fact, one did happen starting even in February this year. Okay, so long before we declared it was an El Nino officially, these Kelvin waves were happening. Okay. And so what happens, though, as as the season goes on, we'll get more and more of them. And because the water itself is warmer as we go, you know, towards summer, the pulses themselves are stronger and will transmit more warm water.

And the wave itself can be larger and, you know, increase the depth of that warm layer. So, you know, you typically have, you know, during an El Nino, you'll have maybe five or six of these, okay, over the, the course of several months. Five or six. Okay. And the first one, yeah. And the first one is probably just arrived, like right this moment or last week. Oh, really?

Okay. Okay, so five or six during an El Nino cycle. Obviously, this isn't our first El Nino rodeo. Why are we just now talking about it? Like, why has the Kelvin wave burst onto the scene? Well, I think it was because a good colleague of ours, Dr. Dylan Amaya, would happen to be chatting with someone on the news and he brought it up and people were like, well, what's that? We've never heard that term before.

So he was brave enough to bring that up. It's like I said, normally I would, you know, when people ask me about El Nino, the past big one, I would just, I would not bring it up to the normally to the media because it's a complicated thing to describe. It takes a long time to describe. And I think just somehow this year, the media is just very excited about it being, you know, this quote unquote, super El Nino, even though there's no such thing as a super El Nino, It's a very strong El Nino.

But I think people have just gotten enchanted by this idea that this is a really strong event. And, you know, there's just all this going on. And we're seeing a lot of observations of unique and interesting things. And so people latched onto that term and said, hey, what is this? You know, the headlines have made it sound scary. But how scary is it? Or what should we be concerned about here, if anything? It's something that happens with every El Nino.

And it can happen other times and other places, too. I think in some sense we've maybe passed the worst point of it because there's a bunch of features that go into the total sea surface heights, not just this Kelvin wave coming through, right? But it's the total overall water temperatures. And we actually, right about now, we're actually over the cusp of the sort of yearly sort of seasonal cycle of when is the temperature warmest in the water, right? So the warmest ever temperatures we usually get along the U.S. West Coast is at the end of September. Okay, so we're past the hump there. And so the overall, even if the water level is higher than it normally would be because of these Kelvin waves yet to come, the overall temperature of the water is cooling at this point. Except that, here's the caveat.

So the overall levels are coming down. We're going to have more Kelvin waves that will keep raising it up. The only thing to really worry about, I think, is it's coming in the next month or two when we have storms. So now we typically with El Nino will have quite strong storms, and those sort of create this storm fetch that can raise it more. So we could have a case where we've got warmer than normal waters, we've got the Kelvin wave making it higher than normal, and we could have some strong storms.

At that point, we could still have some high sea levels. It's an added risk to a menu of risks, yeah. It's an added risk. And again, like this year, that was following on the heels of a very strong marine heat wave that was already there warming up the waters. Are there any after effects? I mean, what does the Kelvin wave leave in its wake? Ah, okay, interesting.

So actually, after it passes, it will raise the sea level height and thicken that layer. The biggest after effect is really because we've thickened that surface layer of warm water, so not only is it warm, and that can be a problem for some animals, but by thickening that layer, it decreases the ability of unresolved. upwelling to happen. And now upwelling is a really important process along the U.S. West Coast. Upwelling to simply put is, when the winds blow a certain direction, it can pull actual cold water up from the deep right at the coast, and that cold water has nutrients in it that fuel our ecosystem. And so one of the biggest after effects of these Kelvin waves is that it kind of tamps down

on that upwelling. It makes the upwelling, like less sort of biologically effective, we say. And so that's a big after effect. The other thing that's kind of interesting is that, like all waves, these waves can rebound a little bit. So sometimes after this, the wave can pass and thickened layer, there can actually be an upwelling part of that wave itself that comes through and can raise and can make the layer thin again. But usually it's a little bit more one-sided. It's usually more deepening than it is raising it. But those are the sort of two after effects of the Kelvin waves. And the heat waves?

So the heat waves are a whole separate thing. So heat waves could be caused by the Kelvin waves, okay, but you can also have green heat waves in the surface caused by other atmospheric things. So essentially we had in California, long before the Elinino sent the Kelvin waves up our way, we had ever since last December abnormally warm surface waters in most of Southern California

and all the way actually up to San Francisco. If you remember in April, we shattered a bunch of records, for the April ocean temperatures, okay? And so that was a very strong marine heat wave, not related to El Nino. El Nino hadn't even sent us pulses yet, really, or anything. So there was a strong heat wave there already.

And so that's a little bit of a problem because it means that we're heading into this El Nino season with the water already being much warmer than normal. So it gives you the possibility of raising the sea level even higher. And it's kind of similar to what we saw in 2015. So same thing in 2015. We had an event called The Blob, which was a massive marine heat wave. It put marine heat waves on the map.

And I basically, ever since then, that's all I, a big part of my job is studying green heat waves. So that really put things on the map for us. And that was actually a somewhat similar event to this year. In the 10 seconds I have left. How long does the Kelvin wave stick around? And when, you know, when will we be saying goodbye and looking for those after effects? Oh, well, the Calvin waves themselves will continue as long as Al Nino does. So we'll keep getting these pulses maybe once a month all the way until March or April.

Dr. Andrew Lysing is a research oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Southwest Fisheries Science Center in San Diego, California. Thanks for joining us. Sure. This episode was produced by Iman Moyne. And if you have any questions or comments about this or any other science story, we love hearing from you. 8774 Siphyzer number. Give us a call.

Thanks for listening. I'm Florida Lichtman.