Science Vs - Did We Predict the Pandemic?

Episode Date: May 11, 2023

Just two months before Covid-19 broke out, we made a fictional pandemic episode that was like “Contagion” but with citations. And we played it for Dr. Anthony Fauci. Today, we’re looking back at that episode and asking — how much of the pandemic did we predict?  This episode has some unbleeped curse words.  Find our transcript here: https://bit.ly/ScienceVsPandemic In this episode, we cover: (00:00) Chapter One: Why we’re sharing this episode (03:42) Chapter Two: Meet Dr. Anthony Fauci (07:10) Chapter Three: The fictional pandemic begins (26:50) Chapter Four: Fauci’s thoughts on our fake pandemic (33:53) Chapter Five: Wendy and Blythe’s reaction The original pandemic episode was produced by Kaitlyn Sawrey, with help from Wendy Zukerman, Michelle Dang, Lexi Krupp, Rose Rimler and Meryl Horn. It was edited by Caitlin Kenney and Blythe Terrell. Extra writing help from Kevin Christopher Snipes. Fact checking by Diane Kelly. Mix and sound design by Peter Leonard. Music written by Peter Leonard, Bobby Lord and Marcus Thorne Bagala. This new update was produced by Rose Rimler and fact checked by Erika Akiko Howard, and mixed by Bobby lord. Thank you to all the scientists and researchers we got in touch with for this episode, including Dr. Eric Toner, Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, Beth Maldin Morgenthau, Dr. Melvin Sanicas, Dr. Mandy Izzo, Dr. Kurt Frey, Professor Michael Osterholm, Dr. Patrick Saunders Hastings, Rosemary Gibson, Thomas Bollyky, Dr. Ashleigh Tuite, Professor Stephen Morse, Dr. Lalitha Sundaram, Professor David N. Fisman, Lynette Brammer, the late Dr. Mohamed Naguib, Dr. Yeulong Shu, Dr. Dan Jernigan, Dr. Kirsty Short, and special thanks to Bess Davenport at CDC.  Thanks to our actors, Annabelle Fox as Mindy, as well as the late William Dufris, Alice Kors, Dani Cervone, Robin Miles, Jordan Cobb, Jonathan Woodward, Ian Lowe and Casey Wortmann. Directed by William Dufris with help from Wendy Zukerman, Kaitlyn Sawrey and Fred Greenhalgh. Recording by Fred Greenhalgh and Peter Leonard. Also thank you to all the Gimlet people who performed various drafts during edits, including Chad Chenail, Gabe Lozada, Jasmine Romero and MR Daniel. And a huge thank you to Frank Lopez, Jorge Just, Joel Werner, R.E. Natowicz, Stevie Lane, Phoebe Flanigan, Chris Giliberti, Justin McGolrick, Katie Pastore, the Zukerman Family and Joseph Lavelle Wilson.  Gimlet’s managing director is Nicole Beemsterboer. Science Vs is a Spotify Original Podcast and a Gimlet production. Follow Science vs on Spotify. Tap the bell to receive new episode notifications. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hi, I'm Wendy Zuckerman and you're listening to Science Versus from Gimlet. Today we're pinning facts against fortune tellers. I'm here with Blythe Terrell, our editor. Hey Blythe. Hey Wendy. So last week, big pandemic news, the World Health Organization declared that COVID is no longer a global emergency anymore. While COVID isn't going anywhere, my friends just had it. Some are calling this a big symbolic step towards the end of the official pandemic.

Right. And so we thought on the show, it was a really good time to go back to this episode that we made a few years ago. Yeah. Okay. So this is an episode we made before the pandemic. And it's a fictional episode where we pretended that a dangerous virus was spreading. And we scripted it, we hired actors. and actually we even, Wendy, you might remember, we talked to somebody very special. Yes, Anthony Fauci. That Anthony Fauci. He was still the, you know, fancy pants at the NIH, talking to presidents. But he had time to talk to us about this fictional pandemic. And then he actually listened to the episode you're about to hear, this sort of fake world we created, listened to it while we were all just like, what's he going to think?

What's he going to think? And then he commented and gave us notes. And wait, Wendy, so wait, the episode came out when? Remind us. So Fauci listened and then this episode came out in October of 2019. And then two months later, reports started coming out of Wuhan about a weird pneumonia, which would obviously then become the real pandemic. So what we want to do now is play the episode for you in its entirety, which involves this interview with Fauci and then this fictional episode that we come back to Fauci and he'll tell us how we did. And Blythe and I are going to now listen in the studio. And neither of us have listened for a really long time.

Definitely not since the actual pandemic happened. I'm a little, yeah, I think it's going to be tough. I think it's going to be tough. Are you nervous? Yeah, Yeah. And I want, and I think our audience, whoever had a particularly tough pandemic, I do, I do want people to take care while they're listening to this. Yeah. It gets intense. It does. It does. Okay. All right. So let's, let's go back to simpler times. October 2019, Old Town Road from Lil Nas X

was still playing over and over. And it should have been. And it should have been. And then we dropped this episode. Here at Science Versus, we love a pandemic disaster movie as much as the next person. Life as we know it will come to an end in 90 days. Every single person that you or I has ever known is dead. You got 19 dead, you got hundreds more infected, and it's spreading like a brush fire.

You gotta isolate the sick, and I mean, really isolate them. We're doing that, Sam. No, we're not doing it! Watching these films, you get the idea that if there was a pandemic, basically all of humanity would be destroyed. You know, all that would be left is Will Smith and his dog. No, let's go! But what would it really be like?

To find out, we called up the guy. You know, I'm one of the people. You know, I wouldn't say the guy. This humble fella is Dr Anthony Fauci. He's the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. And despite this organisation's tame name, it's Anthony's job to directly advise presidents about scary diseases threatening

the U.S. Anthony has been in this field for so long that he's advised six presidents. Do you have a favorite? No. They're different. That I can say, but I don't play favorites. Anthony has talked to presidents about HIV, Zika, Ebola. So I asked him, of all the diseases out there, which one is most likely to turn into a pandemic? Well, influenza overwhelmingly is the most likely. The flu?

That's the scariest? I mean, when we look at what's happening with Ebola, it looks, it feels much scarier than the flu. Well, yes. I mean, Ebola appears to be much scarier than the flu because it has a very high mortality, but it is much less easy to transmit from one person to another. So, for example, you can't get Ebola unless you come into contact with the bodily fluids of someone who's infected, say their blood. But with the flu, you can get infected from someone just breathing next to you.

Now, there are lots of different strains or versions of the flu out there. The CDC actually has a hit list of the most dangerous, and at the top of that list is a flu virus called H7N9. It's been circulating in China for around five years and H7N9 is scary because it's killing about 40% of the people who are infected. That's more than 200 times more deadly than the typical flu. But you've probably never heard of H7N9 for one very simple reason.

It's a chicken virus that easily goes from chicken to chicken. It occasionally jumps from a chicken to a human. Right now, it doesn't spread easily from human to human. But viruses do mutate all the time. So we wanted to know what would happen if a virus like H7N9 did evolve so that it spread easily from person to person. And on today's show, we're going to imagine that happening. We've created a fictional world where this disease has mutated and is spreading fast. To make this episode, we consulted with more than 20 researchers,

including scientists at the Institute for Disease Modelling and the CDC. So what you're about to hear is fictional, fictional world, fictional people, but it's based on real science. Think contagion, but with citations. And your guide to this world is a fictional host called Mindy Tuckerman. Science vs. Pandemic starts now. Bumble knows it's hard to start conversations. Hey. No, too basic.

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download bumble and try it for yourself it's season three of the joy of why and i still have a lot of questions like what is this thing we call time why does altruism exist and where is jan 11 i'm here astrophysicist and co-host, ready for anything. That's right, I'm bringing in the A-team. So brace yourselves. Get ready to learn. I'm Jan Eleven. I'm Steve Strogatz.

And this is... Quantum Magazine's podcast, The Joy of Why. New episodes drop every other Thursday, starting February 1st. Obviously, the president is very concerned about the recent cases of H7N9 flu in China. The president is monitoring the situation closely and has ordered an active, aggressive, and coordinated response. Hey, I'm Mindy Tuckerman, and you're listening to Facts Versus. What you're hearing is from a White House press conference earlier today. There are some things that it's important for people to understand.

Flu viruses are extremely unpredictable and variable. We've just heard that a deadly flu virus circulating in China has mutated. With this new virus, basically no one has immunity. We will keep a close eye on this virus as it progresses. I'll take your questions. Excuse me. Are there any confirmed cases in the U.S.? It's true the president is considering closing the border.

As far as we know, this flu virus hasn't left China yet, but the way people are talking about this disease, it seems certain it will hit the U.S. soon. To find out what we're dealing with here, I flew to CDC headquarters. And it's my pleasure to welcome you to Atlanta. Scientists here study this new virus in a level three biosafety lab. There's double security doors, biosafety jumpsuits, you know, the ones with the mask and respirator. Is it possible for me to get closer? No. And what I'm seeing are a lot of ferrets. What's that one's name?

Uh, we don't really give them names. It's probably like 1287. That's Dr. Rosie Morales, the head of the Influenza Division Laboratories at CDC. She told me that the CDC uses ferrets to study how quickly this new virus will spread. And why use ferrets? When they get the flu, their symptoms are similar to ours. Sneezing, mucus buildup, lack of appetite, fatigue. Season five of The Good Wife. I guess. Point is, we use them to help map how contagious this new virus is. A researcher is sticking the virus up one of the ferret's noses. To keep track of the ferrets, I'll call this one Will Ferret. So tomorrow we're going to put that infected ferret...

Will Ferret? ...in a cage next to a healthy ferret. They'll be divided by some mesh to stop them from touching each other, and then we'll wait and see if the healthy ferret gets sick. We should call the healthy guy Ferret Bueller. You know, because he might get a sick day off. Dr. Morales and her team do this to a bunch of ferrets at once. It's not just Will and Ferris.

A couple of days later, I come back to the lab to check on them. They don't look good. How many ferrets got sick? More than we were expecting, and three out of eight are dead. This virus is highly contagious. We test a lot of flu viruses every week, and this one sticks out. Rosie says, based on what we're already seeing in China and in this lab, here's what it's looking like. Say you're on a packed subway car at peak hour and someone coughs.

With any flu, maybe four people will get infected. But with this virus, possibly 10 people could get infected. That means at the moment, we think this virus is highly contagious and deadly. So, how worried should we be here? I mean, it's not in the U.S. yet, right? Well, the virus could actually already be here. We just may not know it yet. If it makes you feel any better, I'm still catching the subway.

For now. Two months since flu virus mutation. Worldwide death toll over one million. Hey, I'm Mindy Tuckerman. You're listening to Facts Versus. It's been two months since we first started talking about the killer flu. Over a million are dead worldwide. In New York, I've noticed that people are stocking up on food, avoiding the subway. But I really want to know what's happening in the hospitals. So I'm headed to St. Mary's in Manhattan to see how they're coping. Oh, hi. Excuse me, Dr. Ragus? Hey, put on a face mask, wash your hands, and don't touch anything.

Follow me. This is Dr. Emily Ragus. She's an ER doctor, and she saw some of the first cases of H7N9 in New York. We're in here. We ducked into Emily's office, and she told me the mortality rate of the flu is dropping. The virus is evolving. We're still learning what's going on.

At first, 40% of the people who got infected ended up dead. Now, it's only 2%. But Emily told me this is still scary. 2%, that's still really high. It's on par with the worst flu pandemic we've ever seen, the Spanish flu 100 years ago, which killed 50 million people. That's what we're looking down the barrel of. 50 million dead. It's not even flu season yet. It's still summer, and I've got people turning up on the ward in

their 20s and 30s. We actually had a doctor die here. He was treating patients without a face mask, so you'll forgive me if I don't take mine off. Oh, wow. He was only 31. He started getting symptoms. Within the week, he had a fever, a really nasty cough, and he couldn't breathe properly. So we put him on a ventilator. Steroids, antibiotics, nothing helped. He died of a secondary infection, severe pneumonia. I'm so sorry. It was certainly a wake up call for the medical staff here. No one has immunity to this, and we're on the front lines.

Secondary infections like this are really dangerous, but Dr. Ragas is also seeing something else. When some patients try to fight the virus, their immune system goes into overdrive. It's called a cytokine storm. Your body ends up attacking itself. It can go after the lungs, making it even harder to breathe. It can affect the liver and kidneys. I've got people in here coughing up blood.

So if you're feeling unwell, see a doctor ASAP. Three months since flu virus mutation. Worldwide death toll, 10 million. Hey, this is Mindy Tuckerman. A couple of weeks ago, the U.S. took a big step to stop the spread of the killer flu. They closed the borders. Hundreds of flights traveling to the United States have been canceled. It was a controversial move at the time, but since then, the number of new flu cases has dropped. What scientists are calling the worst virus in decades now shows signs of abating.

That's welcome news to Americans who have spent weeks avoiding crowded places like malls, movie theaters, and stadiums. Politicians are calling the border closure a victory. Today, Americans can sleep easier thanks to the steps we've taken to protect them. To find out when this will end, I went to speak with Dr. John Uzdiansky. He's an epidemiologist from the University of Brooklyn, who is, quite conveniently, my downstairs neighbor. Knock, knock.

Hey, Mindy. Come on in. John's been tracking this flu since the pandemic started. So, is the president right? Has he averted a full-scale flu pandemic in the United States? No, of course not. That's insane. It won't stop it. Why not? Because the flu is already here.

Shutting our borders won't make it magically go away. But we are seeing fewer flu cases. Yes, but that's not because of the border. We've seen this before. He could have emailed me. I would have told him. My grad students could tell him. John, what are you talking about? From everything we know, flu pandemics can come in waves. There's a little one to start, followed by a lull, and then you get

smacked in the face with a big wave. That's when people really start getting sick. Some scientists call the first smaller round of sickness the Harold Wave. The Harold Wave? Yes. So in 2009, the swine flu hit America. There was this outbreak in the spring and then poof, the virus seemed to drop off until just a few months later, flu season picked up when it got colder and there was this explosion of new cases. So you're telling me this thing isn't over? No, far from it. Despite what the president says, I think there's a very good chance that this thing is going to come back in the next few months. It's just a matter of time. John told me that when it starts to get colder and everyone is stuck inside,

it's much easier for the flu to spread. And to make things worse, John told me a vaccine isn't coming anytime soon. To make a new vaccine, we're basically stuck in the 40s. Most of the time, we're still making vaccines by growing the virus in chicken eggs, for God's sake. It's a really inefficient system. It takes time, up to six months or so. But eventually we will have a vaccine? Yeah, eventually. But by then, it's possible we'll have already seen the worst of it. Five months since flu virus mutation.

Worldwide death toll, 24 million. In the U.S., hundreds of thousands are dead and millions are sick. Hospitals are overwhelmed and authorities in New York are urging people to call 311 before going to the ER. And as I walk into St. Mary's in Manhattan, I can see people being turned away. There's a lot of people here, mostly adults, but also children. Some are lying on the pavement. There's one man who seems to be struggling to breathe. Sir? Are you okay? Sir?

Oh, hang on. I'll try to find you a doctor. Sorry. Excuse me. Can I just get... Sorry, I'm not trying to cut the line, but I need to find a nurse. Everyone please stop crowding my station. We'll assist you just as soon as we can. Hey, excuse me. There's a line here, ma'am. I know, I'm sorry, but there's a man outside on the ground. I don't think he can breathe. Is there someone who can help him?

Let me see if I can page someone. Thank you. Is he a family member? Oh, no, I don't know him. I'm actually here to see Dr. Ragus. I have an appointment... Is your sister here? She has immunity, right? Never mind. I see her. Next patient, please.

Hi, Emily! Yes? It's Mindy. We had an interview scheduled. It's full in here. This is only the tip of the iceberg. Most of us haven't been home in days. Sorry, what were you doing here? You were going to give me an update on the flu situation. Right, look this isn't a good time. Of course, of course. I totally understand. Do you think though it would be alright if I just follow you on your rounds? No, I'm sorry. That wouldn't be safe. You really shouldn't be here at all. So do yourself a favor and go home. But if I could just get some time...

I'm serious. I don't want to see you next week as a patient. Okay, I've just snuck into the intensive care ward. No one seems to have noticed. All the doors to the ward are shut, but I can see through some of the windows. All the rooms to the ward are shut, but I can see through some of the windows. All the rooms are full. There seem to be a lot of people connected to ventilators. Most of the patients I can see don't look so good. Their skin is pale. Some of them look a bit blue.

There's so many people. But I haven't seen any doctors or nurses yet. It's weird. What do you mean you don't have a ventilator for her? Ma'am, but all our ventilators are in use at the moment. So take one from someone else! She's 15! Ma'am, I'm sorry. Your daughter is not a good candidate. Her organs are failing.

Ma'am, sit down. I can... I'm sorry, your daughter is not a good candidate. Her organs are failing. Ma'am, sit down, I can- Don't ma'am me! I will rip one out of someone else if I have to! Ma'am, I know this is a painful situation, but I need you to stay- No! No!

Ma'am. No! Ma'am, if you don't control yourself, I will have to call security. Fuck security! And fuck this hospital! And fuck you! Excuse me? Sorry, I didn't mean to startle you, but I couldn't help but overhear. Is it true the hospital is out of ventilators?

I'm sorry, who are you? I'm a journalist. I know I shouldn't be back here. Turn that thing off. Turn that thing off! This nurse eventually agreed to talk on Mike. She told me she hasn't been home in almost a week because a lot of her colleagues aren't coming to work.

Yeah, it's scary. I mean, look around. These wards are full. So I get why some of my colleagues stop showing up. It's a lot to ask. And it's not just hospitals that are short-staffed. A lot of us aren't turning up to work. And that includes factory workers. So factories around the world aren't pumping out enough of the things we need, like medication. The U.S. has huge stocks of medication for situations like this, and now they've broken the glass. They're giving out meds to help cover the gap,

but we don't know how long their supply will last. And already we're hearing reports that people with diabetes are dying because they couldn't get their insulin. Seven months since flu virus mutation. Worldwide death toll toll over 33 million. Okay, so this is Mindy Tuckerman. It's been seven months since the flu hit the U.S. City officials have recommended people work from home if they can.

I never thought it would get this bad. Anyway, I was really worried about my neighbor John. He's the epidemiologist we had on the show a few months ago. I hadn't heard him walking around the apartment for a little while, so I knocked on the door and nothing. So I dialed emergency and recorded the conversation. Hello, 911. What's the emergency? I'm worried about my neighbor.

I haven't seen him in almost a week. I know he was sick. I tried checking on him, tried calling. I went to his apartment, knocked a bunch, tried his door. It's locked and no response. Okay, uh, we'll get someone out to you as soon as we can. What's your address? Oh, just a second. Let me just put my mask on.

Ma'am, I'm Murphy. This is Officer Kelly. Are you Mindy Tuckerman? Hi, yes I am. Thank you for coming. I'm not sure what's going on. He's just not answering. Sure. Is this your friend's apartment? Yes. His name is John. It's been at least five days since I've seen him. He's in his 60s, so he might have just fallen and hurt himself. It's okay, ma'am. We'll let you know what we find. You can step back into your apartment, ma'am. We'll let you know what we find. You can step back into your apartment, ma'am. We'll handle this.

Okay, thank you. Hello? Emergency services, open up. Hello, sir, can you answer the door, please? Your neighbor called to check up on you. John? Hello sir, can you answer the door please? Your neighbor called to check up on you. John! We going in? Yep.

Yeah, I'm over here. It looks like another one. Yeah, I'll notify the neighbor. Okay. This is Officer Kelly. Yes. We have a 1045D, deceased male, approximately 60 years of age, at 418 Darcy Avenue. That's correct. Called in by Tuckerman, K-U-K-E-R-E-Y.

20 minutes. Ma'am, I'm sorry to confirm your neighbor is in fact deceased. I heard. We're going to make arrangements to remove the body. Do you know if your neighbor had any immediate family? I'm just his neighbor. I don't know his family. Okay. Don't worry about it, ma'am.

We'll take care of it. The city couldn't reach John's family, so they ended up taking his body to Heart Island. I can see the island from where I'm standing. It's served as a cemetery for all the unclaimed dead of New York for over 100 years. And now John's here, along with thousands of other victims of this flu pandemic, buried in long trenches. It's been months since we first heard about this flu, and more than 35 million dead worldwide. The vaccine is finally here, but for millions of people, it's too late.

I've seen so many posts from friends who've lost people. It feels like everyone knows someone. OK, so there's a lot to unpack here. We just theoretically killed off some 35 million people worldwide. But was our scenario realistic? Well, we actually played it for Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. So, Anthony, how did we do? We did really well.

I was a little concerned when you started off with the 40% mortality, but when you immediately pivoted and it dropped to 2%, then that became more realistic. Why would the lethality drop from 40% to 2%? You don't know, but what you do know is what experience and history tells you, that from an evolutionary standpoint, viruses cause disease, they can kill, but they don't like to put themselves out of business

if you had a virus that infected very easily and killed everybody that it infected the virus would have no more hosts and so then when we do think of like a worst case scenario, like when you think of a worst case scenario, do you ever think of a flu virus that is both super deadly and super contagious? You know, obviously you always put that in the back of your mind, but the scenario that you depicted is overwhelmingly the more likely scenario. So the movies, that's where most of them go wrong then?

Yeah, yeah. So tell us, with this idea of closing the borders then, do you have residents asking you about whether closing the borders is a good idea? Yeah, and we always recommend not to. But they ask? Well, I mean, it's a reasonable question to come up. Should we be restricting travel, closing the borders?

And we always say no. It can make things worse. Because what it does, it doesn't allow for help to come in and supplies. I mean, if you close borders, you're not going to wind up getting any supplies that you need. A lot of our medications come from countries. You close the border, you're not going to get the medications. And as that character in the clip said, it's already here. So sooner or later, the flu will get to you, unquestionably. The government does have a stockpile of certain medications

for times like this. Have you visited the stockpile, by the way? Because I'm imagining like an Indiana Jones warehouse-style room. Is that what it looks like? You know, I can't tell you that because then you'd ask me where it is and I can't tell you where it is. Interesting. Then you'd have to destroy all record of this conversation.

You're right. Do you think hospitals, if we did have a pandemic with a 2% mortality rate, would hospitals run out of ventilators? Yeah, they definitely will. You know, there's only a certain number of ventilators. I mean, we have stockpiles of ventilators, but when you're talking about a catastrophic pandemic, you almost never have enough of them. So that is something that is a problem. So the scene of running out of a respirator is an entirely realistic scene. And in our scenario, it took about six months to get a new vaccine. Is that realistic?

That, well, unfortunately, it is. Right now, today, if we got hit this moment, we would have to rely predominantly on a vaccine that's made by growing the virus in eggs. That is not the optimal way. So a vaccine really could turn up after the worst of a pandemic. Oh, absolutely. The vaccine that we had available in 2009 was available after the peak of the outbreak in the United States. Chatting with Anthony about our episode, though, he did take issue with one choice in our story, the strain of flu virus, H7N9. Anthony told us that pandemics in the past have actually come from flu viruses that no one saw coming. I mean, obviously, for the sake of the show, you did a good logical extrapolation from an H7N9

that was smouldering to one that mutated and went to humans. That could happen, and we need to be prepared for it. But historically, I repeat, historically, the most likely evolution of a pandemic would be literally out of nowhere, the way it happened in 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. I guess, like, how should we feel about the potential for a big pandemic? You know, does it keep you up at night? Well, nothing keeps me up at night. I work too hard.

I sleep very well. Just kidding. We will have another pandemic. We've had them in the past. We've recently had one in 2009. We cannot predict when the next pandemic will be, but we can be almost certain that it will occur. Will it occur in the next 10 years?

No idea. Would it occur next year? No idea. But history tells us that sooner or later, we will have another pandemic. We could be lucky, like in 2009, when we had a pandemic that wasn't particularly lethal. Or we could be really unlucky, like in 1918, when we had a pandemic that was catastrophic. That 1918 pandemic that Anthony is talking about was the Spanish flu, where some 50 million people died.

It's what some of the scenario that you just heard is based on. Now, the world has changed a lot since then. We have things like ventilators and antibiotics, but there's also a lot more people and more travel. And as you heard, we're still really vulnerable. So what can we do to learn from the past and stop this kind of pandemic from happening again? Well, all the researchers we spoke to, including Anthony, told us that better vaccines are really key here.

We need a universal flu vaccine that will work for all kinds of flu viruses. The research on that is ongoing. And in the meantime, we need to improve how we make vaccines and stop growing them in chicken eggs. But the experts that we spoke to also told us that viruses are a fact of life and death. Oh, that was brutal. Yeah, I mean, listen, not to call you out, but I saw you tearing up a couple of times. Yeah, I mean, listen, not to call you out, but I saw you tearing up a couple times.

Yeah, I did. I did. It's like it hit you when that first doctor died. And then the ventilator scene. I know, I know. I mean, I thought I was going to cry. I thought, because there was some moments. It's not that, it was like, in those early days in New York, like in March,

I remember there were just sentences that academics actually told us that we had made up and I couldn't believe it. That line from the professor that was like, it's already here, it's already here. I remember speaking to a virologist who was basically that guy. Like the real version of that guy. And I remember him saying that as well. Those exact words.

I remember that too. It's already here. I remember that. Yeah. What about you? What hit you? The Heart Island thing. They're burying folks in our episode.

Like there were people who were buried at Heart Island during COVID. And I remember when that happened during the pandemic, I remember seeing those news stories. And that is like what gave me goosebumps. I was like, oh, gosh. I think it's just so sad. And it's so sad about how naive we sounded in this episode.

That it was like a game that we would make a fictional ep about it. Oh, gosh. I'm just going to blow my nose and then let's talk science. Yeah, let's get this emotional shit. I want to talk about feelings, Wendy. Okay. What did we get right? What did we get wrong?

Yeah, and listen, point of order, I will say. I don't know, wrong and right is quite it. I think it's what, you know, where did our fictional pandemic line up with COVID and where did it not? Right. Okay. Yes, because I guess in the future we could have a pandemic like the one that we...

Wendy, don't say it. Everyone already thinks we're witches. Okay. Okay, okay. So things that happened in sync, that happened in this episode and then happened in real life, the virus did come out of China. Yeah.

Which we picked for a couple of reasons. One is because there are these models that scientists use to try to predict where the next pandemic could come out of, and they use things like the population of a place and diversity of wildlife, because many of our new viruses come from animals. And using these models, they know that China is hotspot, along with other countries.

So that's one reason we picked it. Another reason is that H7N9, the flu virus that this whole fictional episode is based on, that first emerged in China. Other stuff we were right about, medical staff being overwhelmed, masks is in this episode, that moment where Mindy's opening the door to the police and she's like, I'll just get my mask. Like now it's like, oh, yeah, of course.

But that was like a little creative flair we just added, like, oh, she's probably going to grab her mask. It was like, oh, wow, I can't believe that felt so real. The cytokine storm causing a bigger illness, the waves of disease, we talked about that. That happened. But now turning to the stuff that did not line up. So one of the most obvious was that the real pandemic was caused by a coronavirus,

whereas we talked about it happening with a flu virus, which is what scientists had been expecting. Although very prescient that Fauci was like, it comes out of nowhere, it'll come out of nowhere. So, you know, points to Fauci for that one. Right. You win this one, Anthony. But the fact that we, yeah, so the fact that we picked a flu virus to cause this fictional pandemic, it also meant that a lot of the conversation we had around the vaccines ended up being off, right? Right, right. Because we make our flu vaccines

in chicken eggs and for the COVID vaccines, like that's not what we did. You know, we use these different tools, including like the mRNA vaccines. Yes, yes. Which was a miracle. It was a miracle that we got them as fast as we did. Oh my God. What within a year or so people were getting COVID vaccines. It was a science miracle. Right, right. But yes, but either way in our scenario, it was different. Yeah. And it also felt like in ours, way more people were dying. Is that right? Yeah, yeah. So, okay, in the in our fictional pandemic after seven months 35 million people had died globally now for covid as of early may 2023 around 7 million people have died according to the who you know according to the best numbers we got right

right but you know actually, actually our mortality rate actually ended up being not too far off. Really? Because we started with that very high mortality rate, but then switched to 2%. What happened in real life? Yeah, yeah. So, I mean, in real life,

it definitely dropped for COVID too. So like basically it peaked at almost 8%. And that was at the end of April 2020. And then it went down. And you know, not necessarily because of mutations, like we talked about in the episode, but partly because in the beginning, you're really catching like the sickest people.

I mean, the people who have to go to the hospital and you're not catching the people that didn't get that sick. So as our data got better, the mortality rate for COVID went down to about 2%. And that matched our figure. Oh, wow. Yeah, yeah. And then from there, it dropped down to like around 1%. Obviously, that was like

after we had vaccines and stuff. Yeah, that's interesting. And I think the reason that our model had predicted so many deaths is because we hadn't thought that countries were going to be going into lockdown as quickly as they did, right? In our scenario, Mindy's working from home seven months in. I'm like, Mindy, what are you doing? Stay home. That's bonkers. And in reality, that happened relatively quickly, right? Right, right. I mean, it happened, yeah.

So Wuhan went into lockdown pretty you know like early 2020 and then in the u.s like by the early march was when we first started hearing about cases popping up in the u.s and spreading um and like by within two weeks of that by the middle of march it's like lockdowns were happening so it was bam bam bam it was so fast compared to what we thought it might be based on our episode. A couple things I wanted to mention that have always stood out to me. Well, number one, actually, is one thing that I think is, I think we found is kind of wrong, is the idea that border closings don't do anything. Right.

I mean, you know, Fauci kind of talked about it. I was like, we always say no. Did you like my Fauci accent? We always tell people not to do that. But forget about it. But actually, there is some evidence that, you know, that that can slow things down potentially. I mean, New Zealand, you know, like we saw that. Australia.

Yeah. Australia. Why are you going to talk about New Zealand? I'm right here. I don't want you to get a big head over there. So the most famous of the Australasian countries, New Zealand, closed their borders. But I mean, and look, you know, like that made it, that made a very obvious difference. Yes.

And actually there was a review paper that came out just a few months ago, and they looked at lots of countries that closed their borders and they found basically sometimes it did seem to help, especially if you close early and use that time to do stuff like prepare. And other times it really didn't help. You know, so I think it's just like not as cut and dry, maybe, as we presented it. And one thing that, you know what,

one question that Meryl, one of our senior producers kept having as we were talking about this episode, is like, what about the ferrets? I don't remember using any ferrets during COVID. Like, were they using ferrets? I don't remember using any ferrets during COVID. Like, were they using ferrets? I remember that too. We were like, we just predicted a worldwide pandemic.

Forget about the weasels. Well, for the Merrills of the world who are wondering, we can confirm that yes, in fact, there were ferrets used in sort of testing how infectious COVID was. For those who are concerned, it happened. About ferret Bueller. Exactly, and Will Ferret. Yes.

Incredible. Yeah. Yes. And I mean, just zooming out here a little bit, the fact that we did create this episode, the fact that, like, this episode, the fact that, like I know this wasn't perfect, exactly right by any means, but the fact that by using these scientific papers and documents,

which is what our fictional episode was based on, you know, we were able to get pretty close. To me, really shows how much science wasn't surprised by what happened. Hmm. Hmm. Yeah. Oh, I mean, absolutely. Yeah. I mean, listen, you know, we should have listened to the scientists.

Is that what you're saying, Wendy? Yes. That is what I'm saying. But I guess, you know, I guess the real lesson of the episode is that next time we make a fictional episode, we will make it about how the world is full of rainbows and starshine. Maybe we fix climate change. Exactly. We'll manifest that into the world.

Thanks, Blythe. Thanks, Wendy. That's Science Versus. Oh, and Blythe. Yeah. How many citations in this week's episode? Oh, in this week's episode, we have 185 citations. 185.

That is a lot. Listen, we have a lot of pandemic science, Wendy, it turns out. We sure do. And we've been adding to it plentifully over the last few years. We did want to do a call out as well to two people who did an incredible amount of work on that fictional episode. The first is Caitlin Sorey, who was the lead producer on this episode,

just did an amazing job. She now has her own podcast company called F&K Media. Go check it out. And then also Peter Lennett, who did the sound engineering for it. And oh my God, like listening back, I just could feel all of his blood, sweat and tears. Next week is our episode on skincare.

Yeah, no, I'm very excited for you to tell me how to look less old and withered. Sorry, weathered, I guess I should say. Maybe both. That's right. Is there anything you can slap on your skin to make your wrinkles go away? All right. See you, bye. Okay, Bye.

The original pandemic episode was produced by Caitlin Sori with help from me, Wendy Zuckerman, Michelle Dang, Lexi Krupp, Rose Rimler, and Meryl Horn. It was edited by Caitlin Kenny

and Blythe Terrell. Extra writing help from Kevin Christopher Snipes. Fact-checking by Diane Kelly. Mix and sound design by Peter Leonard. Music written by Peter Leonard, Bobby Lord

and Marcus Thornbergala. This new update was produced by Rose Rimler, fact-checked by Erica Akiko Howard and mixed by Bobby Lord. Thank you to all of the scientists and researchers that we got in touch with

to build this episode, including Dr. Eric Toner, Dr. Dimitri Daskalakis, Beth Malden-Morgenthau, Dr. Melvin Senecas, Dr. Mandy Izzo, Dr. Kurt Frey, Professor Michael Osterholm, Dr. Patrick Saunders-Hastings, Rosemary Gibson, Thomas Bolleke, Dr. Ashley Tweet, Professor Stephen Morse, Dr. Lalitha A huge thanks to all of our actors. Annabelle Fox played Mindy, as well as the late William Dufresne, Alice Kors, Danny Curvone, Robin Miles, Jordan Cobb, Jonathan Woodward, Ian Lowe

and Casey Wertman. Directed by William Dufresne, with help from me, Wendy Zuckerman, Caitlin Sorey and Fred Greenhalgh. Recording by Fred Greenhalgh and Peter Leonard. Also, thank you to all the people at Gimlet who performed various drafts during edits,

including Chad Chanel, Gabe Lasada, Jasmine Romero and Emma Daniel. Also, thanks to Frank Lopez, Jorge Just, Joel Werner, Arina Tavich, Stevie Lane, Phoebe Flanagan, Chris Giliberti, Justin McGulrick, Katie Pastor, the Zuckerman family and Joseph Lavelle-Wilson. I'm Wendy Zuckerman. Back to you next time.