Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 10/25/23 Meron Rapoport on Netanyahu’s Choice to Aid Hamas

Episode Date: October 27, 2023

Scott talks with Israeli journalist Meron Rapoport about Netanyahu’s policy to prop up Hamas and the broader political ramifications of the current escalation. They begin by working through the history of the Israeli strategy to keep Hamas in power in an attempt to discredit the Palestinian Authority and pro-Palestinian advocates more broadly. Scott then asks Rapoport about the current geopolitical dynamic in the region and the political dynamic within Israel after the attacks. They end with some predictions about the impending invasion and the fate of Netanyahu.  Discussed on the show: “The End of the Netanyahu Doctrine” (Responsible Statecraft) “Israeli Right: Keep Hamas In Power” (Lobeblog) Scott's Twitter Thread: The Israeli Regime Likes It This Way Starter Pack  Meron Rapoport is an investigative journalist and an editor at Local Call. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott’s interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRj Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, y'all, welcome to the Scott Horton Show. I'm the director of the Libertarian Institute, editorial director of anti-war.com, author of the book, Fool's Aaron, Time to End the War in Afghanistan, and the brand new, enough already, time to end the war on terrorism. And I've recorded more the 5,500 interviews since 2000. almost all on foreign policy and all available for you at scothorton.4 you can sign up to the podcast feed there and the full interview archive is also available at youtube.com slash scott horton's show okay you guys introducing moran rapaport and he is a writer for the 972 mag in israel and he's got this piece at responsible statecraft called the end of the Netanyahu doctrine, although if his name sounds familiar, it might be because you've seen where I was reposting in the past few days in the past week or so, this really

important article that ran at Jim Loeb's blog back in 2019 that he wrote about the Netanyahu doctrine and the Lekud's support for Hamas in the West Bank. And I hope this has gone a bit viral. People can find. It's a tweet called the Israeli regime likes it this way starter pack and I have this long thread and it's even a thread of threads of Israelis explaining why Netanyahu prefer Hamas rule the Gaza Strip at least up until this point. So this is a very controversial topic. I understand why people might be upset to hear about it but I have a guy who absolutely is an authoritative source for us here to explain just exactly what this means and what it doesn't and all the rest.

So thank you very much for joining us on the show today, Maran. How are you? Fine. I'm good. I really appreciate you joining us on the show. So obviously, it's all history and backstory and who knows where to start, but like maybe we could start with, would it be okay? Or would you agree a good place to start would be 2005 with Ariel Sharon's disengagement from the Gaza Strip and help people to understand what was the purpose behind the

that. And then as that story obviously segues here into Netanyahu and his doctrine here. So the floor is yours, sir. Please go ahead. Thank you. Yes, I have to admit that we have to admit that this is not an invention by Netanyahu. You mentioned now the disengagement or the unilateral withdrawal of Israel from Gaza in 2005 by Prime Minister Riali Chavonne. Netanyahu was a minister in his government, he supported the move, then he went against it. But again, and even Sharon did not invent it. It's quite, there are two issues here. One is really to separate the Gaza Strip from the West Bank. This is something that Israeli government, so from I would say from the early 90s, I found it very important to separate Gaza from the West Bank.

As you know, they are not connected geographically. There are something like 40 kilometers separating the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. And this was very important for Israel in order to weaken any Palestinian claim for state. when, you know, a territory is divided into two, then it's, of course, easier to not allow it to become a state. And it's more difficult for the PLO to claim that it represents the whole of the people, the whole of the Palestinian, as they are detached from Gaza. So this is, you know, an Israeli doctrine going for years. What Ariel Sharon did in 2005 is really taking it one step further. And he said, okay, I will withdraw from Gaza unilaterally without having an agreement with the PA,

President Abu Mazen at the time and now, without his consent, I will do it in unilaterally. And the idea was to weaken the PA and weaken the PLO stand demanding political solution and two-state solution. His advisor at the time, though Vice-class, in a very famous interview given to her arts, said it very bluntly that the disengagement is meant to put the – the – the – the peace process in formalite. That's the name. Oh, I'm sorry. I have my mic off. Formaldehyde is how we pronounce it in America. Go ahead. So he said it very, in a very strict way. So Netanyahu inherited this doctrine. And what happened is that in another, you

issue that happened in 2007 is the coup made by Hamas after it won the election and the Palestinian election and was not recognized by the PO and PA and other Western countries. It did a coup in Gaza, took over Gaza in 2007. So when Netanyahu came back to power in 2009, there were two issues that were really almost a gift to him. One is this total separation between the West Bank and Gaza, because it was run by another entity, the Hamas government. And the second is that it was Hamas there. And Hamas is is an organization that oppose any peace negotiation and is illegitimate in the eyes of almost all Western countries.

So it had a gift almost that it can on the one hand, you know, consolidate this separation between the West Banker Gaza on the one hand, And on the other hand, to strengthen the political separation between Hamas and Fatah and aiding Hamas in order to weaken Fatah in the West Bank, to weaken Aboumas in the West Bank. So there were two strategies here going along together. Okay. So listening to you, sir, through the ears of a critic, I might say, aha, your. saying that the leaders of Hamas are all secretly controlled by Massad and this kind of thing.

Is that what you're saying? No, not at all, not at all. This is, this is, I generally speaking, I am not so fond of conspiracy theories. And in this case, it's, of course, baseless, Netanyahu, of course, knows. that Hamas is a terrorist organization, that it is a murderous organization, that it, he has no illusions about Hamas, what is Hamas. I didn't speak personally to him about it, but it's very evident. No. But yes, he used, because he thought that Hamas is weak and Hamas cannot really threaten Israel militarily.

And he added building a very huge obstacle fence, wall, along the frontier with Gaza. So for him, he said, this is a weak organization. It can, you know, send some rockets and kills here, there people, but it's not really a strategic threat to Israel. And with a fence, it cannot, it can never go into Israel because we built such a beautiful and sophisticated fence overground and underground. So there is no problem.

So this is why Netanyahu thought that I can give how, You know, I will allow Hamas to prosper in Gaza. If it will attack Israel, I will attack it by my air force. They cannot cross. So they're not a big threat, but they are big help politically. You have to add here another element. That is, I think this is the other real doctrine of Netanyahu that was crashed on the 7th of October.

Of course, this doctrine crashed when this wall just were torn apart in 40 spots simultaneously. And the Hamas militant went as far as 40 kilometers into Israel. So this was really this doctrine that Hamas is a weak organization that cannot really hurt Israel. It killed more people than the whole second intifada. In four years of second intifada, it killed in six hours. The other doctrine that was developed in the last years and received a lot of support internationally in the US and elsewhere is that we can bypass.

the Palestinian authority at all. And we can make peace with our world without negotiating any deal with the Palestinian, without going into negotiation with them, without changing their status, leaving them under occupation, under Israel settlement, without rights, without political rights,

without national rights, we can bypass them. He did what we call the Abraham Accord with the Emirates and Bahrain and later Morocco and Sudan that was internationally celebrated, especially in the U.S., by then President Trump, but also when President Biden came into power, he welcomed these agreements. Even now in the last month tried to add Saudi Arabia into this melt pot and saying, we can make peace with the greatest and the wealthiest Arab country without even negotiating with the Palestinian, without a few days, just I think two days before the October 7th, there was a headline. attribute to Netanyahu, but it was not an official quote, saying that we can do it, the peace with Saudi Arabia, without the mayor of Ramallah. This is how Abu Mazen, the leader of the PLO, the leader of the president of the Palestinian people, was called by Netanyahu, the mayor

of Ramallah. So this also, I think, crashed at this horrible. morning of October 7th when the Palestinian, when the Palestinian of Hamas in a horrible, cruel and despicable way. But still, they said, we are here. The Palestinians are here. They're not going anywhere. You don't make peace. If you want to leave, you don't make peace with Saudi Arabia and secure your lives here. It doesn't work that way and not to the Emirates. the Emirates. We are your enemies. And Hamas proved to be a terrible enemy, a cruel enemy, but they are from here. And this is also a doctrine that really was smashed at that horrible morning. Well, folks, sad to say, they lied us into war. All of them. World War I, World War I, World War II,

Korea, Vietnam, Iraq War I, Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq War II, Libya, Syria, Yemen, all of them. But now you can get the e-book, All the War Lies, by me, for free. Just sign up for the email list at the bottom of the page at Scotthorton.org, or go to Scotthorton.org slash subscribe. Get all the war lies by me for free. And then you'll never have to believe them again. Hey, y'all, Scott here. Let me tell you about Roberts and Roberts, Brokerage, Inc.

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it's worth mentioning here i don't know you can comment on this if you want but um it's worth mentioning that in Israel, you guys can talk about this. And nobody accuses everybody else of being an anti-Semite because everybody's Jewish. And so you can have articles like this in the Jerusalem Post or in Haaretz or in, I don't know if they write this stuff in YNet, but maybe pro-Lakud point of view, pro-Hamas stuff previously there. But this is all perfectly fine for open discussion in Israel, whereas here in the United States, it's much more of a third rail thing that oh no how dare you say but so i think it's very important as you clarified there as i pushed you to do and not that you overstated anything but i just wanted to give you the opportunity to clarify

that you're not saying that Hamas is controlled by masad and they do either this or even overall controlled by them you're saying they are strategic allies which doesn't necessarily require a single phone call of communication just like america worked with al-Qaeda to fight against the Shiites in Syria. It doesn't mean they were working directly with them. They always had a mythical moderate rebel as intermediary or whatever, but it doesn't take away the fact that they were working against Iran and their friends there on the same side of the war. This is another example where it doesn't have to be a conspiracy theory. It's just foreign policy. It's not even necessarily covert action. It's maybe

not very well-covered action, but not even necessarily secret. It's not covered at all. It's not covered at all because Netanyahu said it in a liquid meeting openly that if you want to weaken the PA, if you want to avoid the Palestinian state, you should support Hamas. This was after he was criticized for allowing Qatar to be. give money to Hamas. So he said it openly, and I quote in my piece, one of his greatest supporters, Galite di Stal, who later became his propaganda minister, and she now resigned a few days

ago, which he was the propaganda minister in his government, saying Netanyahu could wipe out Hamas in a moment, but he knows that this is the only way to avoid the Palestinian state. He said that. Not me. Not me. I'm not inventing anything. So it was out of the open. And Charles Motrish, he's now finance minister, said that Hamas is an asset and the PA is a liability. He said it on TV. So there's nothing covered here. Right. I'm not accusing none of them, Smotrich or Galidi Starr or Netanyahu, in colliding with Hamas, wanting Hamas to kill Israelis. This is absurd.

Right. It cannot happen. But the fact that they thought it is useful, this is evident. Right. It cannot be denied. Well, and you, okay, so first of all, we're going to have in the show notes, links to a couple of your articles here that are just chalk full of notes, and we'll have a link to my Twitter thread

where I've just been compiling all of these great quotes and I've poached quite a few of them from you sir and they do say over and over again not just that this is a policy but explicitly why so again to sum up for people who are a little

bit lost here the real answer you correct me if I'm wrong sir what's going on here is the Israeli government and the factions in control of it they don't want peace. They want the West Bank. And as long as they can keep what they considered, as they explicitly described, essentially, a good little enemy in Hamas in control of the Gaza Strip, then they can

argue, we don't have a partner for peace. You don't really expect us to deal with these terrorists, do you? When if it was Mahmoud Abbas who was in charge of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, Well, then everyone would agree that, okay, this guy's kind of a kook, but he wears a three-piece suit, and he ain't that bad. He's been compliant. His men don't do terrorism, right? His army and police were trained by George Bush's guys, right? That's where his authority comes from. And so we could deal with him, and they don't want that. That's what they're afraid of, is that international pressure will come and say, you've got to give up the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to be an independent Palestinian state. So by keeping Hamas in power in Gaza, they can say, yeah, right, you expect us to give a state to these cooks, and they said that, and you have the quotes in your pieces here, and we have the quotes from all different Israeli publications. They say this explicitly over and over and over again. We know it sounds crazy to prefer Hamas in Gaza, but hear us out. The reason why is so that we don't have to give up the West Bank. to the Palestinian people to be part of their Palestinian state, correct? Correct. Only I would say just one thing, you know, peace is a very, you know, a tricky word. Okay.

Everyone wants peace. Of course, Betel, Sumatric and Netanyahu and Galitistal, and all his ministers want peace. Everyone wants peace. But they don't want, Palestinian will have a right for self-determination in the land between the river, the Jordan River, and the Mediterranean Sea. This is the nationality law that was passed in 2018, if I'm not mistaken, by the Israeli parliament saying that between the river and the sea, there's only one people that has a right for self-determination. This is why they refused.

any negotiation with a PLO. So it's not that they want peace. They want peace. Of course they want peace. They want the Palestinian to accept to be non-citizens in an apartheid-like regime where there are subject without rights in the West Bank that only Jews, Israeli Jews, have rights. This is what they want. They don't want to kill Palestinian. Nobody wants that. Nobody wants to kill. Nobody wants to murder Palestinian. That's not the idea. And again, everyone wants to live in peace.

But they don't accept that the Palestinian people have a right for self-determination now. I would only add this. I think this terrible, terrible crisis that we are in and really the darkest days that I've experienced in my life. and I'm 66 years old, the worst day I experienced in my life. And I think it is maybe the darkest days of Israel since its creation in 48. From these dark days, I think maybe, maybe. There will be an understanding internationally and not, but also in Israel. that

to avoid to ignore that there is another people here of course rejecting the violent

murders ways of Hamas there's no acceptance of this but that there is

another people here and they deserve to live in freedom and indignity

and inequality I hope I hope that through this crisis, we will have maybe a new understanding. I see some glimpses of it, but there are really glimpses in a very dark moment. You know, it's so frustrating, though, because the attack by Hamas this time, and we're not talking about a few kidnapped soldiers or, you know, a small reprisal like what happened before in 2014 or in 2014 or in 2006 and these kinds of things. This is the kind of thing that hardens, feels like maybe a major setback, maybe generations worth of setback here. On the other hand, as you say, there's a real

understanding that could break through too, that there's a real reason it's like this. And you know, let's get back to that Netanyahu doctrine a little bit here. This is so important for people to understand. I'm trying to understand it myself. And I had missed this. I was so busy. I did not read his, uh, Benjamin Netanyahu's United Nations address that was just what, a few days or a week or something before this attack broke out. And in his UN address, he holds up a map of the Middle East instead of a fake Iranian nuclear bomb. This time it's a map of the Middle East. And he says, he draws a big red line and he goes, look at these are all our allies now. I did it. This is the Netanyahu doctrine. I've now made friends with Bahrain and UAE and now Saudi Arabia and without

making peace with the Palestinians first, which he terms letting them hold peace hostage, which is hilarious, right? And then he says, and I'm sorry for people who don't understand, the deal was these states would never recognize Israel, not that they were at war. The Abraham Accords aren't peace deals. They were recognition deals for full recognition, but the deal always was they wouldn't do that until the Palestinians got their independent state. And the Abraham Accords, were short-circuiting that with American weapons and tax money, F-16s for Bahrain, F-35s for UAE, and roll over your loans for Sudan and all this is what got them to go along with it. And then, so Netanyahu explains that now that we're friends with all the local Arab Sunni kingdoms,

now the Palestinians will have to essentially just give up. As you said, oh, they want peace, all right, the peace of just total submission. Palestinians will now know that there's no way out for them, not even the Saudis, rhetorically even have their back anymore. And so they're just going to have to accept. You have Hebrun and you have Ramallah, and that's just going to be about that, you know, Janine. And otherwise, forget you. You get 2% of what's left to Palestine, period, and nobody's coming for you. And that was his speech he gave, just a couple of, what, a week or less before this attack broke out.

Yes, yes. I think it was very clear. I think I quote in my article a piece that Netanyahu himself wrote just before the last election, the election in November 1st, 2022, when he was re-elected for the fifth or six time, saying, we don't need Ramallah. We can bypass Ramallah. He said it very openly. It's not, Israel is strong. The idea was, his philosophy said, I'm a man of power of, of, of, of, of, of, out of strength. Israel is strong militarily. The, the most, the strongest military force in the, the, the most, the strongest military force in the, Middle East, Israel is strong economically, and Israel is strong politically to its relation, spatial relation with the U.S. and Europe. So they need us. We don't need them. We don't need peace. He was arguing with the left, with what is left of the left in Israel, saying, you guys,

your leftists, for many years said that Israel cannot prosper without peace. with the Palestinian. That if we want to prosper, you have to make peace with the Palestinian. That was Rabin's way. That was the Oslo Accords. They were, had a lot of problems in them, but that was the idea. That was the idea of the center left for almost 20 years. Netanyahu was practically saying in his article, in Haaret, just days before the election, no, you that it totally wrong. Israel can prosper without peace with any any understanding of peace or accord with the Palestinian. Even more than that, it can prosper only without them. Because then you go directly to the Emirates, you go directly to Saudi Arabia. They're just

interfering with their craziness and whatever. They don't recognize Israel as a Jewish state, which is quite senseless because no Arab country, including Egypt and Jordan and the EU and and Bahrain, no one country recognized Israel as a Jewish state. It recognized Israel. Well, and it was so obvious How Israel defines itself That's its problem It's not Bahrain to decide

What is Israel and not for the Emirates Or for Saudi Arabia Not for the Palestinian And Marron, isn't it right that They added the stipulation That Hamas has to recognize Israel As a Jewish state After Hamas said that they would recognize Israel

Within 67 borders as part of a deal And then they went, aha, we got to move the goalposts another hundred yards. Now you have to say, you know, you rhetorically sacrifice the full citizenship of the Palestinian citizens of Israel. No, that's a trick a little bit older. That's a trick that was pulled, I think, around the Annapolis talk in 2006 with Olmert as Prime Minister and C.P. Leveni as his foreign minister. She was the lead. the talks with the Palestinian, and then came this formula that the Palestinian, the PLO, is required not only to recognize Israel, because it recognized Israel already in the Oslo Accord in 1993, but to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. This was, of course, almost, was and still, is impossible for the Palestinian because there's a Palestinian minority in Israel.

20% of the citizens of Israel are Palestinian Arabs. So there's no way that they could recognize Israel as a Jewish state. So it was a condition meant to be an obstacle and not to promote peace. And this was a trick that was pulled in 2007, but six. But then it was adopted by Netanyahu and other government. So when Bennett was prime minister for a year and a half, he also adapted the same formula. So it's not only Netanyahu. He's really very talented, but he represents a current that is very deep in, unfortunately, in Israeli politics.

So I have a new Israeli friend of mine who I've interviewed and talked to all the the phone and we've been emailing back and forth a little bit. He's saying the consensus in Israeli society right now is so far to the right and is just so seething with rage and just wants the absolute decimation of the Palestinian people in revenge for this attack and all of that. And yet at the same time, Marone, I'm seeing that Netanyahu's approval rating is in the trash because what adult over there in Israel could deny that they call this guy King Beebe. He served longer in power than Ben-Gurion or any other prime minister in Israeli history. He's the, you know, for certainly well over a decade here.

If this happened on his watch, well, he's responsible. It'd be like if Bill Clinton was still in office when 9-11 happened, you wouldn't be able to say, oh, gee, he got caught by surprise. He's been sitting there this whole time. This has to be somewhat his fault. And according to the polls, people are really. mad and hold, you know, I guess they're saying when the war is over, he'll have to go, that kind of thing. But let me ask you, does that mean that we're going to get somebody who

is less worse, like, you know, I don't know, labor, but somebody who actually has a much more realistic take than this absolutely failed Netanyahu doctrine? Or does it mean that we're just going to get Naphtali Bennett or somebody to the right of him even who's going to, that what's wrong with Netanyahu, whatever he's mad at Netanyahu for is that he's not being harsh enough. not using many nukes or going, you know, killing them all, driving them all off into the sea or into Egypt or something. So what do you think is the near-term future? Well, separately, I'll ask you about the future of the war and whether you think it's going to spread. But just in terms of Israeli politics and Netanyahu's future, what do you think?

Yes, there's no doubt the atmosphere is, you know, is filled with, with, with, revenge and really will to wipe out Gaza at this. There is some difference. I know these are maybe it seems tribal, but I don't think it's so tribal. People are talking about wiping out Gaza and not a Palestinian in general. The Palestinian minority in Israel is in a different situation.

And but yes, the revenge is very, very high, and there is really people are ready that, you know, there was one commentator, the military commentator on the Israel national TV tweeted, not when he was, you know, was talking in the TV, but he was tweeted that if there should, one million Palestinians should die, then That's, you know, it has to be. And a minister in the government just, her ministry just published yesterday, a plan to force two million Palestinian into Sinai. So was that a government report that said that?

Yes, it's a government. It's by the Ministry of Intelligence. It's a fake minister. It doesn't have any responsibility whatsoever, just a title. But she is the Minister of Intelligence. It's a small minister. And they published a report arguing for transferring the Palestinian of Gaza into Sinai. Do you think that Netanyahu is going to go that far this time?

I think it doesn't really. met. First of all, I don't think so, but even if it did, I think, an effort to force the Palestinian into the Sinai, out of Palestine, out of the borders of Palestine, meaning out of Gaza, into Egypt, I think could put at risk the whole existence of Israel, as a state. What do you mean by that? I'm not exaggerating here. I think that if Israel

we really try to re-enact a NACBA, 2.0 in 23, 75 years after the first NACBA, I think that there is a real

risk that the whole Middle East will blow apart not only Hizbalah will go into fighting and maybe Syria, but I think there is a possibility that the Jordanian regime will fall. You have to remember that 80% of the Jordanian citizens are of Palestinian origin. They just need to cross the Jordan. And Jordan is a nice name, but it's a ditch, if you've been there, if you've seen it, it's a ditch of a few meters. It's

not a real obstacle. They can just go over the border into the West Bank and millions of them. And Egypt itself may change sides. These are two huge armies. So I think Israel, if it tries to pull out something like this, it risk its own existence. So therefore, I think Israel leaders have some sense left in them i i hope so uh so i think they won't go to that even if they they they like the idea in private uh but uh going back to your question yes i think um yes netanyahu is uh the revenge on one hand and there is the weakness of nataniao on the other. Netanyahu is very weak. Contrary to what happens sometimes in wars, his popularity goes down instead of going up. It is really the lowest he has seen, I think, ever since he came

into politics. He's really hated. People really hate him now. I see it's not only the polls. I I can see, hear it in the cafe. I hear it from people. I hear it from people who went to the front and talked to soldiers saying, okay, we will fight here. We will do the war now. But after the war is over, we go with our uniforms and go to Jerusalem to topple and now. So there is a real rage that he is held responsible for this.

And of course, this is not, you know, it's quite obvious. He was prime minister for 14 years, so he's definitely responsible. Who will be next? It's a huge question. I think for the moment, if we go to look at the polls, then next is Benny Gads. He is today the defense, and not the defense minister. He's in the war cabinet. He's an ex-chief of staff.

He is middle of the road, but he is, I think, less what we talked before, his refusal. He's not a refusnik concerning Palestinian negotiation with the Palestinian. He hosted Abu Maz and Mahmoud Abbas at his private home in Roshayn a few a year ago when he was a defense minister in Ben. and Lapid government, he is, he made some statement in favor of the two-state solution in a, in a vague way, but still he was never really against it. military establishment in a strange way is quite sympathetic of Abu Mazen and the PA because the military, the security cooperation between the Israeli army and the PA in the West Bank is good and maybe even very good. So they feel confident if Fatah is, if Fatah is in power, the military establishment and Gantz is part of this military establishment.

So we don't know, but it's not to be excluded that if Gantz is prime minister, and that could happen maybe in a few months, if the political crisis will go on, it's not to be excluded that he will not reject, you know, immediately some kind of negotiations with Abu Mazen, with the PLO, with PA, it's not to be excluded. I don't know. I'm not that I'm quite sure. He is not, doesn't understand, grasp yet. What does it mean? a full agreement, peace agreement with the Palestinian, what does it take, what Israel will have to give. I think maybe he doesn't really understand, and maybe the most, Israel public doesn't. But once I think negotiations starts, we start, I'm an optimistic

everything is possible. Once negotiation starts, what we have. to remember that since john carrie uh mission to the middle east in i think it was 2009 i think and 13 well that was when they finally gave it up 30 13 yes 13 so it's 10 years there's nothing no negotiation whatsoever not even indirect uh nothing uh carry was indirect was in negotiating negotiation. He made the dialogue with

Abu Mazin and Netanyahu. So for 10 years, we don't have anything. The very fact that some kind of talks will resume and we are still far away from there.

We are still in the moment of revenge, wanting to really to get to all these horrible people who did these atrocities. This is the mood. But once the war is over, and I hope

it will be over, without too many casualties, further casualties on both sides, I hope it will be over soon. Then I think talks. are not impossible.

What I'm saying in these last days that we are so close to the abyss that we are also closer to the other side of the abyss to the beginning of some kind of promised land. This is the way things are. That's a great way to look at it. Hey guys, Scott here for Leo Hamel

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Diego. Go to jewelry storeSD.com to check out their fine selection and to find out more. Hey, y'all, you should sign up for my substack. It's Scott Horton's show.substack.com, and if you do that, you'll get the interviews a day before everybody else, but not only that, they'll be free of commercials. How do you like that? Pretty good, huh? Scott Horton Show.substack.com. Hey, y'all, Libertasbella.com is where you get Scott Horton Show and Libertarian Institute, shirts, sweatshirts, mugs, and stickers and things, including the great top lobstas designs as well. See, that way it says on your shirt, why you're so smart.

Libertas Bella, from the same great folks who bring you ammo.com for all your ammunition needs, too. That's libretasbella.com. All right, so let me ask you one more question for I let you go here. is about the pending invasion. I'm not really asking you to read the future, but just, you know, read the TV and the politics in Israel right now. We know that in 2014, they sent in a land invasion and then they quickly changed their mind because it was a tough road to hoe and they decided, no, we'll just bomb them with artillery and air power instead. This time, the catalyzing event obviously is much greater on the part of Israel and the October 7th attack there.

So, and then all the hype has been that they're lined up at the border and there's been reports, say, for example, the Wall Street Journal that the Biden government has been asking Netanyahu to wait because they're using the Qataris to negotiate some prisoners releases, which have been successful, although that same report says that that's the only reason they're urging a delay. They're not urging a cancellation of the actual invasion that I know of or that I've read of. But obviously, if you want to start talking about Domino's falling down, there's an obvious danger that if they do a full-scale invasion of the strip, whether or not they try to force everyone out of the south into Sinai or not, if they do a full-scale invasion

of the South, that that could lead to real war with Hezbollah, with Syria, with Iraq, which is, of course, very Iran-friendly government now because America did Iraq War II for Ariel Sharon back 20 years ago. And so, you know, people are, and it could spread even to Iran. And as you were saying, some of these Sunni kingdoms and Sunni el-Presidentes ships like Fatah al-Ci, the dictator of Egypt, I mean, they might be forced to choose or be overthrown themselves. I mean, which whatever. I know this is slippery slope madness craziness I don't think it'll happen in 2006 I remember thinking oh no this is going to spread and then it didn't so what the hey but I wonder what you think about that because I know a lot of people are really worried about regional war right now and that may be actually

Netanyahu will take the chance and maybe he does have the cahones to just say you know what we are going to force America into a regional war against the Shiites the Ayatollah's got to go and so let's do it you know faster please like Michael Ledean you say to say. So what about all of that? I just read the report that only nine people really know what's going on. It's five members of the war cabinet and then the chief of staff and the head of Mossad and the head of Shabakh and maybe another minister. So, and that even it was written that the resolutions are written in English in order that they will receive the American approval

before they are passed to the government and that it's a rubber stamp the government and the decision are taking there. So we have to know, we have to admit that we know very little. Having said that, I think that Ground invasion is complicated for many reasons, for the reason you mentioned, that I don't, and certainly after what happened in October 7th, I'm not sure that the Israeli army itself is confident that it can pull it out. It didn't succeed in 2014. It didn't succeed in 2006 in the second Lebanese war when it entered direct combat with the Uyzbollah. It was not successful.

So I think Israel itself, I'm not sure, and I think Netanyahu maybe himself is not sure that the Israeli army can do it. This is one thing. And the second is, of course, the casualties for Israel and the casualties for the Palestinian and the trigger that might trigger a regional war. But there is another element, I think, and this is something I wrote today, it will be published, I think, tomorrow or the day after a local call were right in Hebrew, and then maybe in 972. I think Netanyahu knows that if Israel goes, and of course there's a hostilization, of course, that's also complicates things very much because if there's a ground attack without a deal to release the hostages before, then the fact that the blood of 250 Israeli civilians.

something like 150 Israeli civilians, in addition to some 50 soldiers, but 150 civilians, including women, children, very small children, that they will be killed as a result of an Israeli invasion that's a high price to pay politically. So all these are factors that delay and maybe even make a pull-blown invasion very difficult, but there was another issue that is less talked about. If Israel goes in and takes over

Gaza, then that means that we have to think about the day after. And the day after will inevitably include some kind of political

negotiation. Because no one will be ready to take the Gaza Strip from Israel, unless Israel will be ready to enter some kind of political dialogue on the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, whether it will be the PA itself, whether it will be an Arab coalition, whether it will be an international coalition that will go in. And this is something that Netanyahu avoided, as I said in the beginning, he avoided it since he came into power in 1996 to avoid a Palestinian state, to avoid. So I think Netanyahu maybe refers to go on with the aerial bombardment and not go in ground force significantly in order to avoid this.

day after. Because if it doesn't go in, then maybe, you know, somehow Hamas may stay the weekend, but it may stay. So it may be, it is maybe even better for him. So I think there is also this reasoning for Netanyahu not to go for a grand defensive. Now, that there will be no ground defensive at all, the Israeli public will not accept it, will not accept it. But there is a middle way, like, you know, they will take over the Gaza Strip is very small, but it's 60 kilometers long and some 10 kilometers wide, but there is some alternative they can take more areas in the north of the of the of the of the of the of the of the of the street that are less populated bet lahia but hanun the names are less important they

could take a strip or one kilometer strip all along there the border between gaza gas a gaza strip and israel they could maybe even divide the gaza strip into two There is a space there between Gaza City and Dahlbalah that is more to the center and south of the Gaza Strip so they can divide a Gaza Strip into two. So this will be always also requires soldiers to come in and it could be portrayed as a ground offensive. And there are hints to that, that the army is talking not about a ground offensive, but about a ground maneuver. Why is using this word maneuver instead of operation? It's not clear. Sounds like possibly they're climbing down, though, a little bit from the worst.

Yes, I think they are leaving the possibility for a limited... ground offensive, meaning taking only few zones in the Gaza Strip that will put pressure on Hamas. It will maybe lead to the attrition war. It was not brilliant, neither in Iraq, neither in Afghanistan, and neither in Lebanon for Israel, this attrition war with local militias and But maybe that will be a way out in satisfying the Israeli demand for ground defensive, but still not jeopardizing the whole Middle East and not jeopardizing Netanyahu also in forcing him to start some kind of political dialogue with the international community concerning solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

You know, I saw that poll that said the Israelis want Netanyahu to go as soon as the war is over. And I thought, man, I hope nobody tells him that. 23% wants him to go now, during the war. Right. But then that's just a huge incentive for him to prolong the war so he can stay. Yes. Unfortunately, we don't know. But yes, there is an incentive there that if it will go for months,

then people will maybe forget, and they will only, you know, concentrate on this attrition war. They ought to do a reconciliation commission with a drop all his corruption charges if he'll just step down. We promise not to put you in prison for all the grifting and graft, you know, not that he would ever be responsible for the people he killed in office, only for bribes he took. But even there, those are minor charges compared to the danger of leaving him, authority, right? I, I, with all his, you know, maneuvering, Netanyahu's maneuvering, I don't see him stay in power more than six months.

It will be, it will be a surprise for me if you will stay in power over six months. With the charges against him being, uh, being sent, you know, wiped down or not, I'm not, I don't know but, but it's hard for me, the atmosphere is so much against him, so much against him. Well, that's good to hear that. From his own people,

from his own people, I think it will be hard to forget something like what happened on the October 7th. It's not, it's not, it's not, it's not an event that you can just, you know, manipulate and say, no, it happened. No, no.

It's a huge thing. It's a trauma. It's a huge trauma for the Israeli society. I think maybe, again, I think it's harder than the October, the 73 October war, the Yom Kippur. It's harder. It's because it's in our homes, you know, the Hamas people came into people's home. It's not. It was not in the front that soldiers were neglected in the trenches near the Suez Canal in 73. It's people in their own house, in their own courtyard, in the kindergarten. You know, this is something that I don't see how it is forgotten for many years. and I don't see how Netanyahu gets off. Well, it seems like... If you look at September 11th,

I mean, George Bush's approval rating went up to 90-something percent, even though he'd been on the job for eight months, but people just held him completely innocent for it. And then the story was that this group of people just dropped out of hyperspace from some other dimension or something, and they started this war with us

because they hate us for being free being innocent. And that was all the American people were going on at that time, basically. Whereas in this situation, instead of, it sounds like what you're saying to me is, instead of having a rally around the flag effect around Netanyahu, they might be rallying around their security forces. They are not rallying around their leader because this is so blatantly his damned fault that there's just no way to spin that. I find it very difficult for him to spin you know

he's sometimes described as a magician I never thought he is maybe he will pull a trick that nobody can imagine now but I don't see it all right well listen I want to thank you so much for your time on the show today and your great insight and we'll definitely be linking to your great pieces the one at Low Blog from

four years ago and the brand new one too and thank you again for your time everybody that's moran rapaport thank you the scott horton show anti-war radio can be heard on kpfk 90.7 fm in l a psradyo dot com antiwar dot com scott horton dot org and libertarian institute dot org