Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 1/19/23 Ara Sanjian Explains the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Episode Date: January 22, 2023

Scott speaks with Ara Sanjian, an Associate Professor of History at the University of Michigan-Dearborn, about the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. This is ...an excellent interview for listeners unfamiliar with the situation. Scott and Sanjian go over the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict more broadly before focusing on the flare-up over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and the state of things today. The conflict also has notable international implications with the Russian government backing Armenia and the Turkish government backing Azerbaijan. Scott and Sanjian explore the international ramifications of this dispute on an already messy world stage.   Ara Sanjian is an Associate Professor of History and the Director of the Armenian Research Center at the University of Michigan-Dearborn. He received his master’s degree in history from Yerevan State University (1991) and PhD in Modern History of the Middle East from the School of Oriental and African Studies, the University of London in 1996. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott’s interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:22 you'll know just how healthy they are. Visit Spexsavers.cavers.cai to book your next eye exam. Eye exams provided by independent optometrists. All right, y'all, welcome to the Scott Horton Show. I'm the director of the Libertarian Institute, editorial director of antivore.com, author of the book, Fools Aaron, time to end the war in Afghanistan, and the brand new, enough already, time to end the war on terrorism. And I've recorded more the 5,500 interviews since 2000. almost all on foreign policy and all available for you at scothorton.4 you can sign up the podcast feed there
Starting point is 00:01:07 and the full interview archive is also available at youtube.com slash scott horton show all right you guys introducing ara sanjian from the university of michigan at deerborn and he is an associate professor of history director of the armenian research center there how are you doing sir. I really appreciate you joining us today. So we have a very complicated but very important subject for people to get caught up on here. And this is the perennial dispute over, well, between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And crazily and interestingly, both countries have enclaves inside the other country. So people think back to, you know, where we have West Berlin, wholly surrounded by East Germany, that kind of thing.
Starting point is 00:02:01 We have Nagorno Karabakh, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure I'm right. This is the Armenian territory inside Azerbaijan, and then I forget the name of the one. That's the Azerbaijani territory inside Armenia, but they're always fighting, and the Americans and the Turks back the Azerbaijani's against the Armenians, who I think are getting the worst of this. Is that about right to get us started here, sir? Well, just to some extent, let's put this. The Nakhchewani enclave or exclave is part of Azerbaijan, although it is cut off by Armenian territory. So, illegally internationally, it's Azerbaijani territory.
Starting point is 00:02:41 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh used to enjoy autonomy under the Soviet system within Soviet Azerbaijan. They were unhappy with their limited rights. In 1988, during the Gorbachev era, when there were promises of reforms, They asked to be transferred to become part of Armenia, and that was the beginning of the escalation of the conflict which has been going on since then. And so technically the international community recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, and since 1991, Azerbaijan does not recognize the autonomous nature of Nagorno-Karabakh. It abolished it unilaterally as the war was going on.
Starting point is 00:03:26 And so that is the legal situation. So still Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh think that they have no future if they continue to be living under Azerbaijan. And at the moment, they are shielded from the Azerbaijani's by a small contingent of Russian peacekeepers, which have been there since the year 2000. To say that America is actually supporting Azerbaijan in this particular issue, I will not go that. far, although America supports Azerbaijan vis-a-vis Iran, which is, of course, the southern neighbor of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Well, and is it fair to say, though, that Azerbaijan has had a government very friendly to the United States ever since the coup of 1993, uninterrupted all along, though, right?
Starting point is 00:04:17 I'm not sure, but Azerbaijan, of course, is country of great interest to Western oil companies, because it is a good producer of oil and now recently of gas as well because its oil reserves are diminishing. And of course those companies play a very important role in creating a favorable image for Azerbaijan outside Azerbaijan
Starting point is 00:04:38 although Azerbaijan at the same time is one of the most vicious family dictatorships that we have in the world. The ruling family has been in power ever since the Soviet days since 1969 when the father of the current president that became the first secretary of the Communist Party in Azerbaijan. And, of course, at the moment, president's wife is the vice president of the country.
Starting point is 00:05:04 Yeah, it sounds about right. It's funny the way the global democratic revolution only picks countries where the government is not loyal to the United States, but a place like Azerbaijan gets skipped right over for that. So now it was 2020 was the last major conflict there, right? And then you said the Russian peacekeepers have been there since 2000, though, but now there's just more? No, 2020, 2020, since the end of that conflict. That's what I thought it was.
Starting point is 00:05:36 Just a misstatement there. I want to clarify that. Okay, so then, but now there's some kind of siege and continuing conflict going on in Nagorno-Karabakh right now, right? Yes. According to that, because technically, Nagorno-Karabakh has no land borders with the Republic of Armenia. It is shielded by a short corridor. It's about maybe 15 miles or something like that, so it's not a huge distance. And so there's a road which connects it to Armenia. And ever since 1991, for all intent and purposes, economically, Nagorno-Karabakh has been part of Armenia. I'm not saying legally, but economically.
Starting point is 00:06:23 Garabakh is, of course, used Armenian passports when they fly out of the country. Most of Nagorno-Karab's relationship with the outside world is carried out via Armenia as well. And the Russian priestkeepers have to be there for an initial period of five years, which can be renewed according to that agreement. And in the meantime, of course, the two sides. Well, the two sides in this case, of course, are the Armenians and Azerbaijani's, because we have two different entities on the Armenian side. We have the government in Armenia, capital city Yerevan,
Starting point is 00:06:53 and we have also an elected government in Nagorno-Karabakh, capital city Stepanaget. On some issues, they may not see eye-to-eye. I'm talking about the technicalities. But of course, both of them shared that the intent of the Azerbaijani government is to ethically cleanse the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The problem has begun because the Russians have been reluctant to anger the Azerbaijani's. First and foremost, because Azerbaijan is backed fully by Turkey, and Turkey has now become extremely important for Russia in order to evade the sanctions and to create a separate
Starting point is 00:07:29 economic environment where the Western sanctions would not apply. So essentially, the Russians are saying we don't have the right to use force, and that has given the Azerbaijani to take certain steps, like trying to block the road by just sending in a couple of hundred of activists or whatever, which, if it was, for example, a demo in Moscow, it would have been cleared away in 10 minutes. So, but this political issue has actually blockaded Karaba almost for 40 days now from the rest of the world. Yeah. And then it's funny because it seems like it's a pretty severe crisis, but it's not getting too much coverage or, you know, is the European Union or the United States saying anything about it,
Starting point is 00:08:14 or this is all just... Well, diplomatically, yes, there is intense interest, but for some reason, and I find it very strange, it is not being covered by the media. At the United States level, the two top officials who are constantly involved in this are Jake Sullivan and Anthony Blinken, and, of course, they're, you know, subordinates, like in the State Department, USAID is also to some extent involved, and there have been no statements from the White House, but we've been told that the President Biden is also being briefed on what is happening. At the EU level, Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, is involved.
Starting point is 00:08:52 France is involved very much. Of course, the Russians are involved, but you don't see that kind of coverage in the media. Even Gutierrez, the UN Secretary General, he also issued a statement, calling Azerbaijan to lift to blockade, but ultimately calls have not been enough. Baku basically thinks that he could ignore it. President Ali have said in an interview, they call us. We respond to their, you know, calls politely, and that's it. That was literally what he said in interview at the end of December.
Starting point is 00:09:25 And now we're not talking about an exceptionally wealthy area in the first place. What kind of effect is this having on the population there? For the timing, there is no starvation. But the problem that it will soon be, if this one continues for another month or two, it's a largely agricultural area. It has a relatively vibrant agricultural economy. And I will not say that living standards in Karaba are lower than those in Armenia. In the last 30 years, the Armenian currency is used over there. But the problem is that it's not only the blockade.
Starting point is 00:10:03 The Azerbaijani is whenever possible are also. to catching the landline internet, and on and of they are cutting the gas supply. They are also preventing extra electricity coming from Armenia. The region can supply some of its own electricity, but not all of it. So they're just trying to create a situation where people will be fed up, and whenever they're fed up, they'll probably open the door and say, you can leave if you want to. I think that's the intention. They want to ethically cleanse the area, and to show to Armenians how vulnerable they are. The world doesn't care about you. can do whatever we like with you. I think that's the intention. And they are benefiting from
Starting point is 00:10:40 Russia's involvement in the war in the war in Ukraine. In what way? In the sense that the Russian prestige is now low, Russia cannot actually play a strong hand here because ultimately Russia has become too much dependent on Turkey. I see. Would they become dependent on Turkey? I mean, they have become dependent on Turkey as a way of, you know, communication. and also trade and also some banking, et cetera, and it's very, very important for the Russians. I see. Even though the Turks are helping arm the Ukrainian side in the war.
Starting point is 00:11:17 Yes, that's a very kind of a strange balancing game that the two sides are. People are calling the relationship between Erdogan's Turkey and Putin's Russia, and here the personalities are very, very important in this case, as co-optition between cooperation and competition. Yeah, it's certainly a complicated relationship. Okay, so now you talked about that area that is, I think you said, officially recognized as a Ziri territory inside Armenia there.
Starting point is 00:11:52 And obviously this is overly simplified, but it's also the obvious thing. Why not just swap if you have these enclaves of people who refuse to accept the sovereignty of the nation states that they're stuck within? And why not just, sorry to use their term, cleanse both areas of each other, just swap and figure it out that way as the compromise? Well, territorially, that will be a loss to Azerbaijan, because ultimately both areas are Azerbaijani territory. And, of course, for Turkey, the existence of that... Except that, in a way, Nagorno-Karvok is not their territory, like, officially it is, but they're also this autonomous zone this whole time and everything. So it's kind of, you know?
Starting point is 00:12:35 Well, first at all of us, I think it would be much better to come to an understanding that both minorities, you know, in this case, can live peacefully. But also, secondly, the second issue is very important. Nachichevan has a 12 kilometer, so we're talking about seven or eight miles, of a border with Turkey. That's the only border Turkey and Azerbaijan have. And it was there since 19, 2021, a range between Kemal Ataturk and, of course, Lenin, when they were still in power, They're still considered to be rogue entities, not internationally recognized. And so that's very, very, very, very important. Otherwise, had not that small borderline, as I said, 12 kilometers being existence,
Starting point is 00:13:19 Nakhchewan would have been sandwiched between Armenia and Iran. So that will be a very... Now what Azerbaijan wants is Armenia to actually concede rights of total free passage via southern Armenia between Nakhichevan and the rest of Azerbaijan, what we call the eastern part of Azerbaijan. And in that sense, of course, the Armenian government is saying is our over-dead body because that will basically cut off Armenia not only from Iran, but essentially from the whole Indian ocean basis.
Starting point is 00:13:51 Because most of Armenia's trade the relationship with many of the world goes via Iran through the Indian Ocean, as you remember, and especially to countries like India, China, etc. that route is very, very important to be connected to international trade. Now, I am a master diplomat, but I don't have an easy solution here. Maybe the one-state solution. We'll have Armenian, Azerbaijan, joined back together again, and then they'll have an extremely limited government
Starting point is 00:14:18 whose only mandates to protect everybody's rights and nothing else, and it doesn't even know anybody's... Well, one person who would like the old Soviet Union to come back, his name is Vladimir Putin. And of course, for Vladimir Putin, he is not ready even to concede as much as the Soviets did to the local cultures, et cetera, because in the end, the Soviet state was federal, with some kind of strong element of local culture being encouraged by the central government. No, of course, that will not be. Unfortunately, nationalism is flying high in both countries, and there is a lot of intolerance. So at the moment, I cannot see any quick-fix solution.
Starting point is 00:15:00 Unfortunately, the resumption of war and trying to sort the profit through military action seems to be much more likely than any kind of actual peace being generated bilaterally between the Azerbaijani's and the Armenians in the area. The problem is just that Armenia doesn't have enough oil? Armenia has no oil. Not at all. Because I know there's a huge, there's a huge Armenian population in the United States. I know just in Los Angeles, there's enough to elect or unelect any congressman or senator in California that they want, you know, or at least in that part of California.
Starting point is 00:15:40 And, you know, it's like Korea town. It's an Armenian town. It's a huge part of L.A. And so we saw, like, Nancy Pelosi went to Armenian and said, look at me, I love the Armenians and all this stuff. But at the end of the day, that doesn't amount to anything, right? At the end of the day, America chooses Azerbaijan and is not willing to stick their neck out. It's the Russians, if anybody's going to help the Armenians, not the Americans here. Well, this is the major dilemma that Armenians are facing.
Starting point is 00:16:07 Over many, many years, Armenians had believed that it is in Russia's interest to actually support Armenia if the Russians want to have a foothold to the south of their country. and probably this changed because Vladimir Putin took a very anti-Western stand and Val-Aubu Putin is now wanting to create a counter-block anti-Western. Armenians are stuck in the middle of this. You know, Armenians and their noibers to the north of Georgians are Christians. They have been Christians since the 4th century. And as Christians, they have readier psychologically, they are ready in order to learn from European societies.
Starting point is 00:16:50 many, many years, Armenians didn't see much of a difference between the West and the Russians, because Armenians used to live in the 19th century, both in the Ottoman Empire and also in the Persian Empire, and then the Russians came in and occupied that sector of what was formerly the Persian Empire. And so when in the 19th century, you know, this modern nationalism that we now live in started to develop, Armenians in the Ottoman Empire started looking to France as a model. while Armenians living in now the Russian part of Armenia looked to, of course, Russia and via Russia to Germany. And for many, many years, for Armenians,
Starting point is 00:17:30 this kind of westernization, modernization, came via two routes, and they didn't see these things as contradictory to one another. What is actually happening now is that Vladimir Putin is trying to put a sharp divide of either or. Either you are with the Russian, let's say, civilization, or you are with the Western civilization. And that really puts big pressure on the Armenians because traditionally Armenians have always wanted
Starting point is 00:17:56 and have always tried to be good with all Western powers and also with Russia. For Armenians, the arch-enemies are the Turks and now the Azerbaijani's and nobody else in that sense. And that has, of course, become very, very problematic. Up until the 2020 war, Armenians made a lot of concessions, even economically to Russians, hoping that by they being part of the Russian version of NATO, what is called the CSTO, will protect them. Now they have come to realize that the Russians are not ready to shoot a single bullet for that. And Armenia is desperately looking for alternatives, which also includes gradually trying to improve relations with the West. Those relations had remained limited because the Armenians understood that going too far to the West may actually antagonize the Russians.
Starting point is 00:18:49 And now, of course, they feel freer to do this. Of course, it will be years for the West to have an kind of equal influence compared to the Russian influence in the region, which is a few hundred years old by now. But essentially, the Russians are also very unhappy with what the Armenians are trying to do. Like, for example, trying to establish better links with the European Union, a relation with America have relatively improved over the last couple of years, etc. all these things, because that constraint was geopolitical, this idea to keep the Russian troops inside the region for protection, and suddenly they see that that is no factor on which they can rely on. So, unfortunately, other than that, today's Russia doesn't have much to offer for the country's modernization. So most of the models that the Armenians will have to look for
Starting point is 00:19:44 will be towards the European Union and America. Of course, traditionally, links with the European Union have been much, much deeper than America. And of course, for that, the geographic factor is, of course, very essential. But ultimately, there is some progress, whether that will be enough to check the Azerbaijani's and the Turks, I really don't know. In September of last year, Azerbaijan tried a large-scale attack, but it was stopped within less than 48 hours. But even in those 48 hours, Armenians lost 200 or more troops. If you compare that to the size of the country and America, that would have been something like 15,000 American soldiers in 36 hours,
Starting point is 00:20:28 you know, in that kind of situation. And the way the information was leaked by the Armenian government, they basically said that it was Anthony Blinken who stopped to a telephone call rather than anybody else. So at this moment, there is a wider section of Armenian society, who wants better ties with the West. But of course, the problem is, is the West ready to commit resources to countries like Georgia and Armenia who are in a very precarious condition, sandwich between Russia in the north,
Starting point is 00:21:00 which is ultimately looking to be much more better ties with the powers in Asia. And, of course, to the south of Armenia, you have a large chunk of, you know, countries which are mostly Muslim. And so, of course, that's some kind of a very difficult cultural devoid. provide to bridge in a way. And although politically Armenians have no problem with any of the Arab countries in that sense, and they have a good working relationship with Iran at the bilateral level, but in the end, of course, Turkey is the major strong power in that region, and it has a very ambitious president who wants to spread Turkey's influence wherever that is
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Starting point is 00:23:06 and there's free shipping too uh you know i was reading this thing about erdogan and his, you know, heightened rhetoric lately talking about referring to Armenians as the leftovers of the sword. Is that right? And what does that mean? I'm not sure about that particular passage. I don't want to quote on that because I don't really know the exact context of what it was said.
Starting point is 00:23:30 But ultimately, Erdogan has been in power for some now 20 plus years now, yeah? And if we look at his record, for the first 10 years, he was relatively quite liberal and to some extent Armenians benefited from that liberalism. It became possible at least for a minority in Turkey to talk about what happened in 1915. Nowadays, it is possible to publish books in Turkish with the word genocide being used in it. They are not being banned, although the number of the literature which supports the other state preferred option, of course, are there. And to some extent, the small Armenian community, which still lives in Turkey, fills itself slightly freer under Erdogan.
Starting point is 00:24:11 But all this has changed in the opposite direction since 2015. That year, Erdogan came very close to losing power. His party did not win a majority in the parliament, so it basically heightened the internal political tension, created a new front against the local Kurds, rushed into another election so that with a nationalistic hype, he, of course, got the majority back and his party is now basically ruling, allied to a small but very extremist, expansionist, what we call pan-Turkish party,
Starting point is 00:24:46 and their votes are very, very important for Erdogan to survive. And he has elections, of course, next year, which are very, very, very crucial in Turkey. And so since 2015, Erdogan thinks that, Nationalist rhetoric helps him maintain influence inside Turkey, and of course he wants to project the image of a powerful Turkey, which is a regional player. It is interfering in many countries neighboring Turkey, from Libya to Nagorno, Karabakh, etc. But this had been at the cost of a very difficult economic situation. The price of the Turkish pound has plummeted.
Starting point is 00:25:29 the country, there is a very high inflation rate, and most of the people are feeling the pressures of that economic decline. So next year's elections will be very, very crucial. I have some friends in Turkey who even think that Erdogan may not even hold elections by trying to engineer a crisis so that under that pretext you could say that the time is not right to have now elections, because it's a 50-50 situation. He may actually lose power. There is a coalition which is being formed against him. Because in the end, when you're in power up for 20, 22 years, you create a lot of rivals. And of course, it's time for those rivals to come up together.
Starting point is 00:26:07 If they bring down Erdogan in the elections, how much Turkey's foreign policy will change? That's anybody's guess at the moment. But it also seemed, sorry, it also seemed that Putin will be interested to have Erdogan back in power because he cannot be sure that the next government will continue to oppose the government. the Western approach to Russia after the Ukraine war. Well, it used to just be that the Americans really own the Turkish military and what they're the ones who really coined that phrase, the deep state in Turkey. And they would just overthrow and do a coup against any president who got out of line.
Starting point is 00:26:46 But that hasn't really worked with Erdogan. I think they tried to overthrow him a couple times. Well, there was a coup in 2010 and 2016. We don't know exactly what it was. He used the coup in order to silence his internal critics, both within his Islamist movement and also the more liberal wing in the country together. I think 20 years is a long period of time and he has managed to change quite a lot in the army's top brass. And so now many of the people in commanding positions in the army's hierarchy probably share his own visions rather than those secular Turkish nationalism that, was there, starting from the time of Kemal Ataturk up until the time when Erdogan got to power
Starting point is 00:27:31 some 20 years ago. Yeah. So, yeah, those days are over is where I was going with that. For example, let me just say, because I did my PhD on Turkey, and that was now 30 years ago. And at that time, one of the most quoted phrases by Turks was a statement by Kemal Ataturk, he said, peace at home and peace abroad. And that was being interpreted as Turkey being a status quo power, which does. won't change in any borders.
Starting point is 00:27:58 Now, Turkish troops are, to some extent, direct or in Libya, in Syria, in Iraq, in Nagorno-Karabakh, etc. The Turks have created some kind of a mercenary army among the rebels in northern Syria. They're shifting them from one place to another to become cannon fodder. Some 500 Syrians were killed in the Karabakh War in 2020, you know, because the Azerbaijanis used to send them as the front-line. troops, thus reducing the Azerbaijani casualties. So in that sense, of course, it's a much more adventurous policy that Erdogan is following, which is very, very different from the policies of successive Turkish governments from 1923 to the year 2000.
Starting point is 00:28:43 Speaking of which, and just shooting in the dark here, any chance do you know about a Turkish role in the attempted coup in Kazakhstan a year ago? No, I don't want to comment on this because my knowledge of what is happening is Kazakhstan is extremely limited. Oh, okay. Because one thing that was obvious at the time was you had some real protests that had been sparked by a cut in the fuel subsidies. And then all of a sudden you had these apparently highly trained teams of armed men taking out banks and airports and police stations and this kind of looked like somebody had sent them. I don't think we ever got to the bottom of where they were. one thing that I can assure you is that Turkey is trying to use the economic growth that it
Starting point is 00:29:30 enjoyed up until really recently to use the same soft power tactics in different parts of the world. And of course, Central Asia is very important because most Turks know that some of their ancestors came from Central Asia. That was over a thousand years ago, of course, in any case. And there are still some similarities between the languages spoken in Turkey and also in Central Asia because all of them originate from one core, you know, proto-language. But Turkey is also trying to win friends in Africa as well. It's spending quite a lot in Africa to have some kind of friendship in the African countries to use them on the international arena, like for example, votes in the UN or attending functions
Starting point is 00:30:15 that the Turkish government wants a large number of countries to attend. So while I do not know whether they were directly involved in what happened in Kazakhstan on the ground, the fact that they're trying to create a certain class of people in Central Asia, Kazakhstan included, which are favorably inclined to Turkey. That's something that they have been trying ever since the collapse of the Soviet system in 1991. Yeah. You know, there was a time when the Islamic State was doing so well with their help, I expected, more than half expected, that the Turks themselves were going to roll right into Mosul
Starting point is 00:30:54 and say, thanks for taking Mosul for us and go ahead and expand the old Ottoman Empire into northern Iraq at that point. It seemed clear that that was the plan for a minute. Maybe the Americans talked them out of it or something. I don't know about that, but certainly, of course, the Kurds in northern Iraq do have a lot of American support. they enjoy quite wide-ranging de facto autonomy because now you have a very weak government in Baghdad compared to the days of Saddam Hussein. Turkey has been much more involved in northern Syria.
Starting point is 00:31:29 In some areas of northern Syria, basically it has practically become Turkey with the Turkish currency being used, et cetera. We know that a lot of industrial infrastructure was looted in those areas that were fell out of the control of Damascus government and was taken to Turkey from northern Syria. In that sense, I don't think that Turkey's position is actually to annex these countries, but essentially to become a very important player.
Starting point is 00:31:56 And ultimately, two other regional countries, despite their rivalries with Turkey, I'm talking about Russia and Iran, want to have this kind of a platform when they three together decide what's going on in the region. and by trying to keep all the Westerners, the Europeans and the Americans out of it. Now, in this kind of situation, countries like Georgia and Armenia will be at a very difficult situation, because ultimately they don't fit into the Putin's understanding of what Christian orthodoxy should look like, which is to become anti-Western, and technically they are not Muslims as well. So in the Caucasus, Turkey and Russia are talking about what was called a 3 plus
Starting point is 00:32:44 three platform. The three big three will be, of course, Russia, Turkey, Iran. The three minors will be Georgia, I mean, Azerbaijan. The Georgians have been very reluctant. They have opposed participating. Armenia has said yes, only not to antagonize Russia, but with no intention at all to actually to try to make this framework work because they think that it will work against their own interests. Yeah. Well, in the sense of just angering the Americans?
Starting point is 00:33:18 No, I think for Russia and Iran, it's very, very important to diminish America's role on the globe. And for Erdogan, I think it's more opportunistic, try to make the best out of... I meant for Armenia, why they... they'd be worried to do it to go along with them. Because they will think that, you know,
Starting point is 00:33:39 the Russians will try to compensate Azerbaijan and Turkey at the expense of Armenian interests to keep them happy. All right. Well, listen. This word that we don't want to be used as small change is often used by Armenian pundits when they talk about analyze. Of course, diplomats don't use that kind of word,
Starting point is 00:33:58 but, you know, TV personalities, TV anchors, experts interviewed use that. Right. It's tough because it just sounds like Armenia doesn't really have any cards to play here. They're just stuck between all these powers, right? Not much. The major thing is that Armenia can become a very important north-south highway, and that's why they are very much afraid that the Azerbaijani will try to cut that. They feel that the Russians also want to come as intermediaries and act as the arbiters and actually take the control of that highway, which will cut across Armenia.
Starting point is 00:34:31 But that will bring down a lot of plans, especially plans which India is pursuing, and Armenians are seeing a lot of potential in that, so that there will be some kind of a very important trade route, which starts from India, via the Indian Ocean, crosses Iran, that enters Armenia, Georgia, and then, of course, it divides into two lines, one going north to Moscow, the other one going, of course, to Europe, the Balkans and the rest of Europe. In Armenia, there's a plan that was called the North-South Road. It has been going on for years. It hasn't been gone much forward. The Russians have been reluctant to endorse it. But now that southern sector is, they're trying to build it as quickly as possible. The tenders have been announced, and so probably they're receiving bids. I don't know when they will actually give it to which countries.
Starting point is 00:35:25 And the ministry, which is in charge of that, is telling that they have bids from various countries, from Western Europe, from Iran, and other local smaller contractors, et cetera. I think that is what they help that will keep the country as a stable country, as an important trade route, and that may keep the Azerbaijani Turks out of it. That's probably what they're trying to do. And the last two years have seen very intense deepening of relations between Armenia and India. And now, so back to where we started here, just to wrap up, The people of Nagorno-Karabok, the Azerbaijani plan is to just make them at least so hungry, if not starving, and so miserable that they are then allowed, quote-unquote, forced out, cleansed out of there.
Starting point is 00:36:17 Is there any other really countervailing force against that policy right now that can prevent that from happening? I mean, the Russian peacekeepers are there, but I guess they're just standing there. They don't have the mandate to break that corridor open or to trade or anything like that, right? Well, about the mandates, someone at the Jackson, did they have the mandate to shoot in Ukraine? So it's not an issue of having a mandate or not having a mandate. Ultimately, the big problem. Although, I mean, if they're pretending to go along with deals that they made in some cases, you know, not everything is war. But I understand.
Starting point is 00:36:51 But ultimately, the pressure should be international. And there are a couple of things, of course, which has to be taken into consideration. One is a very important principle of international relations since the Atlantic Charter, that, you know, you cannot actually change borders. But does that give the right to any government to ethnically cleanse part of its population of a certain undesirable group? And this will be an issue. So there should be some kind of an international involvement to try to,
Starting point is 00:37:24 to find a solution. At the moment, there were, at least a few weeks ago, two possible solutions. And Armenia is ready to go with either of them, if they work, although, of course, they have different agendas. Russia is saying, let's postpone the issue, and let's make things cool down, and then we can have a more cool-headed decision. And the Armenian government said, okay, if you want to stay, let's do it for five years, let's do it for 20 years, so that people will go on with their own life.
Starting point is 00:37:54 and not be feeling about what will happen within two or three years' time. And then we can set down, just go and try to convince the Azerbaijani's. And what Azerbaijani said, no, they don't want the Russian troops in and they want them to go out. And in the year 2025,
Starting point is 00:38:09 they will have the right to actually ask them to leave. The American position seems to be that let's find a solution so that Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh and the government in Baku should sit face to face with international participation to sort out some kind of a deal. And of course, Azerbaijan says, no, they are my own citizens.
Starting point is 00:38:33 I'm not ready to discuss any specific deals for them. They can enjoy the rights that every other citizen in Azerbaijan does. But here, of course, come to problems. People in Azerbaijan do not enjoy much rights. And international organizations which monitor Azerbaijan give them a very bad record. Even when Armenia was in bad times, its record was much higher. And actually, since a number of years, Freedom House also monitors Nagorno-Karabakh's human rights situation inside.
Starting point is 00:39:04 And it is somewhere in between Armenia and Azerbaijan. So people at the moment in Nagorno-Karabakh have much more civil political rights, actually, than do people living in Baku. Secondly, there is intense anti-Armenian propaganda in Azerbaijan, wiping out of old Armenian monuments, even actually. having things in the textbooks which are very clearly anti-Armenian. How would you expect a population to be citizens and read textbooks when they are identified
Starting point is 00:39:34 as the enemy? How quickly will Azerbaijan change that attitude? It will be easy to change the attitude that you have fostered for something like 20 years. So these are very, very difficult questions if there will be to be a negotiated solution acceptable to everybody.
Starting point is 00:39:50 All right, you guys. That is Aara Sanjian. He is and associate professor of history at the University of Michigan at Dearborn. Thank you, sir. Appreciate your time. Thanks for this invitation to talk to your program. The Scott Horton Show, Anti-War Radio, can be heard on KPFK, 90.7 FM in L.A.
Starting point is 00:40:11 APSRadio.com, anti-war.com, Scotthorton.org, and Libertarian Institute.org.

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