Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 12/14/23 Erik Sperling on Why the Saudi War in Yemen is Truly Over

Episode Date: December 19, 2023

Erik Sperling of Just Foreign Policy joins the show to talk about how the war in Gaza has affected the Saudi-Houthi conflict in Yemen. Sperling disagrees with some recent reports that the Houthi attacks on Israeli ships have put their peace plan with Saudi Arabia at risk. He and Scott discuss the geopolitical dynamics at play.  Discussed on the show: “Yemen peace plan at risk over Houthi attacks in shipping channels, says US” (The Guardian) Erik Sperling is the Executive Director of Just Foreign Policy. Follow him on Twitter @ErikSperling This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Moon Does Artisan Coffee; Roberts and Robers Brokerage Incorporated; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; Libertas Bella; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott’s interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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All right, you guys, introducing Eric Spurling from Just Foreign Policy. He's been working hard on this Yemen issue for a very long time, which must make him the most frustrated person in America right now dealing with this thing and all the recent developments going on over there. So first of all, welcome to the show. How are you doing, Eric? Doing pretty well.

Not as frustrated on the Yemen front at this particular moment as we are on the Gaza front, I would say. but yeah, there is some interesting, interesting Yemen overlap, so. Yeah. Well, I mean, and that's the most obvious thing there is the threat that the war could really heat back up since they've decided to, at least it's reported that they fired some missiles. I know they seized at least one ship, and they've been reported to have fired some missiles and some rockets toward Israel and towards American shipping civilian vessels, as well as military vessels. they claim in the Red Sea, I guess, believably, I don't know. I don't know what you know about that. Maybe let's just start with that.

Can you kind of update us on what has been going on just in the recent developments there? And then we can backtrack to the negotiations and what effect this has on that? Yeah, absolutely. In fact, I had to review because we did a couple other conversations, one where we were very hopeful that it appeared to be a major breakthrough. and then another one where we kind of tempered those expectations and and you know because the war had not been fully concluded and we're still essentially in that that phase but what we've seen happen in recent you know since the start of the you know israeli kind of response to Hamas in Gaza is that you know the Arab world the Muslim world is and actually really much of the entire world is pretty shocked by the Israeli response and the total lack of any kind of proportionality or any targeting to it. And the Houthis, being a group that has now battled the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, you know, pretty, pretty ferociously and successfully over

nearly nine years, you know, took the opportunity to say we're in this strategic location. We've developed this missile and drone industry that they used to basically gain leverage against Saudi Arabia to force them into the peace deal, you know, over the last. last five years, they developed that. It's quite an impressive industry. I think all analysts agree that, you know, some level of Iranian advising, but that there's a major domestic production component to it. And so they've used that and to start to threaten ships that have some ties to Israel and to generally create, you know, pressure on that, that, that straight, that really they can, you know, they largely are able to kind of oversee from the territory they control and then use that

to create pressure on the U.S. and global community to stop supporting Israel or to kind of act more aggressively against Israel. Yeah. Well, and the thing is, though, is I guess there's this report in The Guardian that they had a peace deal finally worked out and that now the conflict in Gaza. and their willingness to dive right into it in their own way is really threatening the peace deal, which could lead, obviously, right back to the worst of the war.

I mean, depending on who escalates what, we just finished. I mean, I know it's kind of an obscure one for a lot of people, but it's as bad a war, America's war, with Saudi Arabia and UAE in Yemen since 2015 is, I think, you know, equal in terms of body count and morality count to Iraq War II or Obama's dirty war in Syria, the very worst things our government has done in this generation. And it's just been an absolute nightmare for the people that country. And to think that it could start up again over this is just the saddest damn thing. in the world, I guess.

Well, I think I have good news on that, on that front. I mean, maybe just quickly for the, for the listeners and those who are trying to keep their minds around all of the countless dozens, if not hundreds of places the U.S. is involved around the world or as some sort of pressure campaign. You know, the Yemen War was, you know, for those, like I grew up in the Iraq War, Afghanistan, Iraq War era, you know, those wars became less popular over time. And, you know, the U.S. has found ways to distance itself from the war, but it hasn't reduced the brutality. In Yemen, it was kind of the lead example of that where we provide the weapons,

we provide the intelligence, and we provide the diplomatic support. But the Saudi, the Saudis technically pull the trigger and technically, and a Yemeni government, quote unquote, provides the legitimacy, even though both the Saudis could never know what to bomb without the U.S. telling them what to bomb and giving them the bombs. And the Yemeni proxy government, nobody thinks if the U.S. with through its support. There's not a person that whatever, you know, its legitimacy evaporates immediately, essentially. It's all based on U.S. diplomatic maneuvering at the U.N. and other places that even allows it to be even remotely considered a government. And so, so that is, you know, kind of how we got to this. So, you know, and the way, and then on top of the bombing, which was

horrific, especially initially, they do a whole economic campaign. So the deaths are very quiet, but, you know, they, for much of the war, the U.S. and the Saudis were keeping, you know, almost all of Yemen, just a few meals away from death. And, of course, small issues could lead to mass, you know, die-off events. And children, you know, some experts will discuss how there could be an entire generation of children that have developmental problems due to nutrition issues in the last eight, nine years. And so anyway, that's where we were. But then, you know, I think as we discussed in your previous shows, you know, that Saudi

you know, pushed by China have a new approach to dealing with this. They've decided there's no way we can stop Houthi missiles from hitting us. And there's no amount of U.S. support that can stop that. And so they decided, you know what, let's make a peace deal with the Houthis because the Houthis only want to hit us to get us out of this war. So why don't we just get out of the war as long as they promise not to hit us again? And that's essentially where we were. The U.S. of course, said it not so fast, don't give in, you know, don't give in so quickly, you know, don't throw this proxy government under the bus and allow the Houthis to be legitimate, which they see as a major win for Iran. And so essentially, there's now a split between the Saudis who are kind of going

with China's approach to the region and saying, let's have relatively friendly relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and focus on economic development. And the U.S. and Israeli approach, which is still kind of focus on an anti-Iran proxy war, you know, type approach to try to make sure Iran doesn't have new allies in the region and so on. And so, so all that to say is, you know, I guess we could speak again about how, you know, maybe we can, I'll leave it there, and then we can get into kind of what the U.S. was saying about how these recent attacks would impact the deal. Yeah, sure. Well, go ahead. Okay. Yeah. So, you know, I think there was a Reuters article, the one you mentioned, that, you know, says this could endanger the deal. But the issue is that the Saudis, the U.S., in their new approach to war, doesn't want to do bombing themselves because they don't have authority. We've said the U.S. needs to get authority and the American people don't want a new war. So they needed the Saudis to do the bombing. The problem is the Saudis don't want to return to the bombing.

And so the U.S. is trying to say this is going to mess up the deal. But meanwhile, the Saudis are saying to the U.S., please don't say that. Please don't do anything to mess up the deal. We're still fine with the deal. Well, that's sure good news. So it's a really interesting dynamic. Yeah. Well, and of course, yes, Dave DeKamp was saying on anti-war news the other day that, you know,

the Saudis are in a difficult position here. They might like bomb and the Houthis, but they don't want to be seen. is bombing them on behalf of Israel in America, not right now. Even if they wanted to, which I think there's evidence they didn't, and the reason for that is just because the Houthi missile and drone program

is so advanced that there's no amount of bombing you can do of the Houthis that will protect Saudi infrastructure. Now that's the second time you said that, but let's go back a minute because this is at the beginning of 2021 when Joe Biden is sworn in, this was

the real, you know, of the Houthi forces then. They'd gotten a few lucky strikes, but they got a couple of more, you know, pinprick strikes on oil fields and refineries just outside of Riyadh. And that was in what? In February of 21 or January of 21? And then somebody in a big white robe said to MBS, enough of this, right? And that was what it was.

It was a direct causation right there. One more giant oil fire. And they said, okay, that was the last one of those. Yeah, I think, you know, what we've seen has been consistent. You know, and this actually relates. I know some of your listeners think about other wars. We have a, you know, I know about other wars, say, the war in Ukraine or we've talked, you know, Taiwan is one that some of us are fearing.

But there's a dynamic where a lot of U.S. allies, the U.S. wants them to take the hit. and then providing the pretext for the U.S. to strike back very aggressively. But the Saudis have a lot of valuable stuff, and they are also somewhat proud, especially under MBS, and they don't feel like getting hit. They don't want to be, you know, treated like a third world country. They want to modernize, and they do not want missiles or drones coming from, you know, Iranian-backed, you know, groups in their airspace. Yeah.

And so the U.S. says, you know, so essentially they just decided there's no way we can end these airstrikes. And so, but then of course, I think what you mentioned is also really critical, which is that, and this just came out, there was a new polling. I could pull it up. But even the most moderate, you know, pro-U.S. commentators admit that these Houthi actions are incredibly popular across the Muslim world. And so the Saudis, you know, if anything, these attacks have actually weakened the U.S. U.S. proxy government in Yemen, totally sidelined it and totally elevated the de facto government in Yemen's capital, which the Houthis, not only domestically, but also internationally across the region. And so, you know, it's amazing to think that, you know, we've come to a place where, you know, when we initially started the war powers work, you know, to try to cut U.S. support for the Saudi war, you know, we wanted to force the Saudis to end the war. And now it has taken such a turn that it's the Saudis telling the U.S. please don't endanger our peace deal with the Houthis. We understand why the Houthis are doing this. You should end the war in Gaza,

you know, if you want to stop the Houthi attacks. Do not attack the Houthis and endanger our peace deal with them. So it's really just a remarkable to see, you know, how U.S. credibility has collapsed in the region and, you know, bringing together groups like Saudi regime and the Houthi rebels. Yeah. Well, I mean, this war has given a huge. opportunity to the Shiite crescent, as they call it, the Iranian-based Shiite alliance that now includes the Houthis, and of course now includes the Iraqis, and includes a Syrian regime that is more dependent on Hezbollah and Iran than ever before in the aftermath of Obama's dirty war there. And so all the Sunni kings from Jordan and all of the Gulf, they're all the

sock puppets to the Americans. None of them can really even say anything or very much at all against what's going on. But the Ayatollah and the Shiite militias in Iraq, the Shiite militias in Syria, I don't know who's really attacking our guys in Syria, but they're saying it's not ISIS. It's Shiites allegedly allied with the regime there. And then with the strikes already ongoing, escalating in southern Lebanon between Hezbole, and Israel, assuming the thing doesn't just go to full-scale catastrophe for everyone. This has been a great opportunity for everyone from the Ayatollah to Nasrallah to build up their political capital in at least denouncing or even, you know, committing strikes against Israel

and their allies in this case, America hitting our guys or attempting to in Syria and Iraq. and we haven't had any killed yet, but we've had some real close calls. And so there's, one, the danger of this thing escalating out of control, but even short of that, they're essentially solidifying massive public relations gains for their primary enemies. Yeah, it's remarkable. And, you know, it's, you know, I'm not in the business of, you know, insisting the U.S. should maintain a global, you know, dominance where we must control militarily and geopolitically every part of the world. But even for these folks in D.C., where that is the prevailing kind of ideology, they're so

beholden to what they see as this kind of domestic, I mean, both to their own, like in the case of Biden, his own historical, you know, kind of, you know, his own connection to Israel and that, you know, over the course of his extremely long career. But, you know, which is based on kind of his perception of what is politically important in the United States. And so on one hand, he's trying to compete against Trump with, you know, pro-Israel, you know, hawkish pro-Israel voters. And, but meanwhile, it's just decimating whatever was left of the U.S. reputation. You know, to say that, oh, we have to protect Ukraine because they are being, you know,

treated so unfairly in the violations of international law and the attacks on civilians. And then to go around, to go back and just pump weapons. into Israel, they're doing this and barely say anything while the whole world is just, you know, united in horror about it. I mean, it'd be different if the U.S. said, look, you know, we're looking out for our own interests and, you know, that's why we're supporting some countries and opposing others. But they really insisted it was all because of defending, you know, human rights and democracy and international law in Ukraine. And they really hit people over the head, bludgeon people with that saying, you know, you got to, come on,

aren't you going to stand up for human rights and oppose, you know, these types of things? And now they're doing the exact opposite in Gaza. And it's just remarkable to see that they, in the way that they can't understand the harm that this is doing to the U.S. credibility in both in the Mide East, but really around the world as well. Yeah.

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how famous this is. I just saw this clip today of Netanyahu speaking with some military officers. And there is an if in there talking about Hezbollah and the threat of escalation in Lebanon. But he, you know, very boldly proclaimed that what we're doing to Gaza right now, we'll do to Beirut and to southern Lebanon. I'm relying on you guys to decimate these people for me. And so that is the threat of regional war right there. I mean, you could have a situation where we all remember Beirut, 1983, or at least have heard of it. Yeah. When sort of proto-Hesbola, Shiite militant, was sent and did that truck bombing, suicide bombing, killed 241 Marines,

and quite a few French soldiers as well. And which, by the way, according to Viktor Ostrovsky, the former Mossad officer, the Israelis knew about and did not warn the Americans that the thing was coming. And anyway, that could happen. We could have something just like that. Did you know, I'm 90% sure, Eric, that this was in Iraq. Maybe you know better than me.

This one passed by me until Dave DeKamp just reminded me of it or something. But I think it was in Iraq. but there's been strikes against our guys in Iraq and Syria right now and you know in the past couple months here and one of them was a drone flew in the window and was a dud but there were like 15 guys in the room and if the thing had blown up they'd all been killed and it was just by luck that the thing malfunctioned

so that's you know if you're a religious guy that was a miracle that saved them otherwise that was you know great luck but very well could have gone the other way, you know? Yeah, and I think your listeners probably also would appreciate an effort that, you know, was led by, you know, someone on the right with Rand Paul, who tried to force a war powers and who did force a warpower vote a few weeks ago

to remove U.S. troops from Syria for this exact reason. And groups that are kind of left-leaning or seen as on the left, such as ours, also organized around that, working with our friends who are on the right of the same movement. And, you know, overwhelmingly U.S. senators did decide to stay, but we got some of the core senators on the left and right to vote to remove U.S. troops within 30 days, 13 total, including Sanders and Warren and, you know, the chair of the Middle East Senate Formulation Subcommittee, Chris Murphy,

and several others. And, but yeah, you know, it's just such risk for escalation. Obviously, if U.S. troops were killed, we would argue we need to get them out. They shouldn't have been there in the first place. And we don't have a mission for them. But there is always that risk that, you know, folks on the other side try to use it to say, you know, we need to get more involved and actually really launch a war. And so, you know, it's not clear which way it would go.

But there is just, just like with Ukraine, I mean, these aren't. just very risky operations the U.S. is involved with, and you just start to get the feeling that it's just not really someone very thoughtful at the helm of this whole thing, whether it's Biden or even, you know, it's just really risky responses that are, all of which are, I think, hurting, certainly in the case of Ukraine, hurting people's pocketbooks, but also, I think, ultimately damaging the U.S. global standing, you know, both in that war and in this one, and with the huge risk of escalation that can't be controlled. So it's just a remarkable time to see it. And, you know, it does feel like a little bit more desperate than it used to.

And, you know, we're hoping that we can, there won't be too many more of these horrific conflicts that the U.S. is backing before we can move towards the society that, you know, kind of values, focusing on what matters back at home and not getting so involved supporting, you know, horrific conflicts abroad. For real. Well, and, you know, we always have the problem of sectarianism

where, you know, conservatives have been getting better and better on the wars as the wars keep getting worse and worse and the results are always disastrous. And yet, once the leftists get out in the street and start blocking traffic and waving foreign flags around and stuff,

then they just, because of the social psychology of the thing, they just don't want to agree with leftists about anything, I guess. Some of them don't. Some of them do. So those, you know, I'm not trying to say that's how it should be. It's something very unfortunate. But you know what's interesting is, you know, when people talk about coalitions and this and that, and that really doesn't even mean anything.

Like all we're talking about is let's all be good on something at the same time. You don't have to show up in the same place or call each other and talk. and go out to drinks and be friends or any kind of thing. Just, hey, don't we all want to stop the war in Somalia right now if we can? Don't we want to, you know, stop burying people alive in the Gaza Strip or risking war with Russia over Luhansk, All Blast? Then we can all just be good on these things all at the same time without getting each other's icky, left-wing, right-wing cooties.

I'm a libertarian, so I don't care. like everybody and hate everybody, but mostly like everybody. And so I don't mind. But I know how left and right get, but I just think, you know, hey, especially for right wingers out there, celebrate the fact that the anti-war left is back. I mean, there have been a lot of great leftists leading on foreign policy this whole time. But the sort of rank and file anti-war left has sort of been gone since 2006 or 2008. And so they should be welcome back and we should all be grateful. And the fact that the right has been getting better and better this whole time means that now we finally really have consensus among the bulk of the people of the country that we don't want this

anymore. It's the people versus the government rather than the left versus the right on foreign policy. And we've been successfully establishing that narrative and we should not be backsliding now. We should be taking the opportunity to congratulate and welcome each other or if we have to just ignore each other and still do the right thing at the same time as each other to try, for example, to support bills like Rans to get us out of Syria or, well, for example, resolutions on Yemen, which is, I guess, leading into my next question, which is, what are we doing about Yemen right now to see to it that this doesn't get worse, Eric? so yeah this is again you know we should reiterate kind of the good news i suppose um the bad news is

the world is you know in a very you know there's a lot of death and there's a lot of chaos and a lot of risk um but the good news is that um the u.s and israel are so isolated on this issue that it doesn't seem it's not going to be easy for the u.s to stand in the way of this deal essentially what the u.s is talking about and if you read that reuters article it's actually quite amusing because there's been a lot of reporting from folks like the Intercept, Brian Graham and others who've talked about how, and on your show, we talked about it in depth the previous episode where I joined you. The U.S. is absolutely trying to, has been trying to stand in the way of this deal, and that's pretty increasingly well documented for those following

this. And because they want the Saudis to empower the U.S.-backed proxy government there, and the Saudis say, we don't care. We just want to get out. and we're just deal with the Houthis and forget about this proxy government. And so in the Reuters article, you'll see what the U.S. is talking about is imposing sanctions that would essentially prevent or make it very difficult legally for the Saudis to lift the blockade that is being enforced on that area and also would make a bunch of economic aspects of lifting the sanctions hard to implement, which then would require the Saudis and the Houthis to go back to the table and find a way to do it without the U.S. that could evade U.S. sanctions.

And that would be probably pretty tricky. But the cost for the U.S. of being seen as, you know, where you have the Saudis and the Houthis both saying, hey, U.S., we're trying to make peace stand out of, get out of the way. And the U.S. says, sorry, no, like, we're going to make it impossible for you to achieve peace. I think the public relations for that, I don't think that these bureaucrats could even explain this to Joe Biden. And he'd say, are you kidding me? We got to get out of this war.

I don't think he wants to be seen. The entire war rested on the idea that the Saudis were leading it. And we were just supporting them behind the scenes, which was false. But now for them to flip and have the Saudis and Houthis want to have peace and the U.S. will be, you know, intentionally standing in the way. I just think it's going to be really hard. And if that were the case, and I think what we will see is a big push from folks that say, know, you know, obviously do not put in place sanctions that prevent peace in Yemen.

You know, I think that's a pretty low-hanging ask for anyone sane. And so I think we will prevail, but the U.S. is just doing some bluster here, trying to, you know, use that threat to see if they can get Saudis to pressure the Houthis to stop. And like what we've seen is the Saudis have said to the U.S., no, actually, you should get Israel to stop and so again just a remarkable change and in kind of alliances and perspectives that i just don't think anyone any of us could have dreamed up just like even three years ago right yeah that's true so um i mean is who you mentioned chris murphy who it's amazing that that

guy is great on anything but here he's great on one of the most important things what a world um i wouldn't say i wouldn't go so far to say that he's been pretty good on it's yeah He was quite good, and then once he realized that the U.S. back proxy government was going to lose, once the experts told him, oh, actually, it's not just about a peace deal anymore. The U.S. back proxy government has so little support, they're going to completely lose the war outright. Then he took a more nuanced position. He's been a little better, but you're absolutely right to be a little bit, you know, he's a very, quote, unquote, serious Natsk guy who wants human rights advanced kind of insofar. as it helps, you know, advance U.S. power and hegemony, but, but I'd say in this case, you know, he has been on the record in the past opposing these types of sanctions. And so he would

be someone that we would be looking to. And he's the kind of person who talks so much about human rights and about peace in Yemen. He's exactly the kind of senator who would have, there'd just be no way that he could justify this. And I think, and I think the administration knows that too. and they're just doing some bluster here. But it's not going to work because we just saw today reports, you know, these attacks by the Houthis on these ships has led Israeli-linked ships to have a 250% increase in shipping insurance cost. So they're essentially enforcing a sort of backhanded kind of backdoor sanction

the Houthis are on Israel, which just speaks to why they've essentially launched themselves to kind of be the most seen as the premier resistance group to the U.S. and Israeli power in the region, which again speaks to what you said, which is just that once again, U.S. actors of U.S. and our allies are undermining, I think, the American people's interests and really helping the people we say are our enemies. It just shows how smart our policymakers are at the top. Yeah, absolutely. All right. So Murphy being who he is, And I don't know. I mean, obviously, if you're from ex-state, then you've got to try to focus on your own politicians somewhat. But is there real leadership? Is anyone in the House or Senate, like, really good on this, leading on this that needs support? Is there an issue, a resolution, a thing that we can focus on and get behind now? I think the main issue, you know, for those folks who do support it, and of course, you know, I know folks on the right and on the left have different views on Israel.

You know, and it's not to say that every action is illegitimate that Israel could do. But right now, for U.S. interests and for the region, I think the main focus is on ending this, you know, ending this particular, you know, period of Israeli military action so that the region can calm down and Saudis and Houthis can get back to making peace. And the U.S. can't use any pretext to try to get in the way. But if people do want to reach out on Yemen specifically, they could reach out to. to their senator and ask them, you know, to speak out against any new sanctions on Yemen that would prevent the peace process. But, you know, that's, your listeners are obviously very sophisticated and that's going to be a very niche advanced thought that, you know, I think some who follow these issues closely in the House or Senate would understand. But by and large, this is all

taking place. These debates are taking place in very niche policy circles, focused on the mid-east. And, you know, I will say, what I will say is the administration, their actions are limited by what they know is kind of the latent power of the Yemen-Peas movement that is on the left and right. And so even when we're not taking a particular action at a moment, our power that we've demonstrated many times through forcing votes in the House of Senate, passing things, you know, they know that that power is there and it constrains their actions. So, and that's since, you know, we'd have to thank you and, you know, those of your listeners who've been active on Yemen, because it's created a formidable force that shapes everything they do.

And if you read that Reuters article, you'll see that Lender King and them, they literally say in the article, and they told the reporter, there's not a secret plan to undermine the Saudi Houthy peace deal. They had to actually say that because we've laid out in the media, so many of journalists that all the evidence indicates that there is basically a pretty undeniable plan for them to stand in the way of peace in Yemen. And so it just shows they're following all of the stuff our movements doing and it's shaping their actions. And they can't stand it. They prefer foreign policy to be done in elite circles. The American people just go, you know, know, numb yourself, you know, with whatever your advice is.

Don't focus on what we're doing here in Washington to tinker with the lives over there. But this movement has been one of the more impressive ones as far as taking an issue that's off the radar and kind of using people power to kind of battle with these elite policy, you know, and kind of hawkish policy dweeps. Yeah. Okay. Well, man, thank you so much for coming back on the show. Did you call them dweeps?

I agree with you if that's what you said. They really are. They are, exactly where they are. I'll invite you to D.C. if you want to, you know, come see these folks in action. Yeah, Gordon Prey, they always called them the State Department weanies because he was an Army guy, you know, so they were the weanies. Yeah, that's pretty accurate.

So anyway, well, thanks so much. For real. Hey, listen, you do great work, and you set a great example for others to follow, too. And I really appreciate you, Tom, on the show, as always, Eric. You as well, sir. Talk soon. The Scott Horton Show, Anti-War Radio, can be heard. on K-P-FK 90.7 FM in LA.

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