Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 12/21/23 Nasser Arrabyee on the Risk of a New War in Yemen

Episode Date: December 24, 2023

Nasser Arrabyee returns to the show to talk about the dangerous situation developing in Yemen. He and Scott lay out the context. Arrabyee then gives an account of where things stand on the ground. The two then discuss the best and worst paths forward. Discussed on the show: “US to Review Terrorist Label for Houthis After Ship Seized” (Bloomberg) “Yemen peace plan at risk over Houthi attacks in shipping channels, says US” (The Guardian) Nasser Arrabyee is a Yemeni journalist based in Sana’a, Yemen. He is the owner and director of Yemen-Now.com. You can follow him on Twitter @narrabyee. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Moon Does Artisan Coffee; Roberts and Robers Brokerage Incorporated; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; Libertas Bella; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott’s interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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author of the book, Pools Aaron, time to end the war in Afghanistan, and the brand new enough already time to end the war on terrorism and i've recorded more the 5,500 interviews since 2003 almost all on foreign policy and all available for you at scothorton.4 you can sign up the podcast feed there and the full interview archive is also available at youtube.com slash scott horton show all right you guys introducing nasser arby He is the founder and director of Yemen alon. That's Yemen now.com, I think it is.

And is a journalist based out of Sana'a and has been a good friend of the show and reporter on the horrible war there since 2015. Welcome back to the show. How are you doing there, Nasser? Thank you very much. Thank you for having me. I'm okay. That's good to hear. Very happy to have you here.

So, I mean, there's such big news going on from what I can tell in the Western press and from my colleagues at anti-war.com, it sounds like the Americans had finally failed to obstruct a peace deal and that the Houthis and Saudi had a peace deal essentially signed, I don't know, in pencil initials, but not quite, you know, perfectly ratified yet or something. But then this current war broke out between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, of course, and now the Houthis have sort of, mostly symbolically, I guess, jumped in the war on the Palestinian side for their own reasons. And now, I don't know about Saudi and UAE, but it looks like the United States is considering going to war. against the Houthi government in Sana'a soon. So I guess what can you tell us from your perspective there in the Capitol about why the Houthis are doing this, how far they're planning to go, and just how much trouble they're about to get the rest of y'all in here? Well, this is something up to the United States.

if they want to go on war, on Yemenis, because they just wanted to help what they could, to help the Palestinians, or to help end the war, or at least help getting the AIDS in New Gaza. if this is if this is something that deserves war from the American perspective it would be very funny

it will be it will be something that has never happened before but you know you know what Yemenis in the streets are happy if the United States would come here and fight

the Yemenis they talk to the streets when we had the news and they said okay let's go let's get started no problem and who they're the Yemenis they said who have we been fighting with 14 years it's United States so they they they they they felt like happy and don't care at all so it's very complicated, you know. But I don't think this is going to happen. But if it's, if it's, if it happens, it will be very crazy. Well, so can we talk about the Houthis policy here in seizing and attacking civilian shipping in the Red Sea? I think the first ship was owned by an Israeli company,

but then they've been firing. Yes. Go ahead. Houthi was very clear from the very beginning. They tried after the war broke out between Israel and Jaze and Hamaas and Jaze. Houthi said they would help clearly. They declared they would help as much as they could. So they tried to send their drones.

and missiles, but these drones and missiles were mostly intercepted either by U.S. or by Israel or by Saudi Arabia. Then they said what's easier for us is, this is the Houthis, is to prevent any Israeli ship going through Babel Mandel. And they did this, of course. And then they said, any ship linked to Israel, and they did this. Anyone linked to Israel, whether by ownership or whatever. And then they said, any ship hitting from any nationality, any ship hitting to Israel.

Right? while they were doing this they attacked at least three shots and they seized one they seized one called

leader galaxy they seized it in a very famous operation they seized it in the in the high seas and they they They led it to the Yemeni coast, which where it is now, where it is now moored.

Now the new thing now, what's happening now is that United States last week formed a coalition from 10 countries, at least from 10 countries, including one around, country that is Bahrain and they said they said they would what they would protect the ships of the navigation from Houthi attacks of course Houthi said Houthi is not attacking any ships in the going in the in the in the in the in the in the in the Bhabel Mandeb Street because they said no they made it clear or they clarified it by we don't attack any ship and we don't attack any ship except the ships that are heading to Israel and we will not continue forever

we will continue this we will continue attacking this we will continue attacking we will continue attacking these ships only until Israel allow the aids into jazza because jazza is sea and so we'll try to help by sieging israel from here this is what huthi is saying we'll try to help by imposing a siege from the south of israel from the red sea because we want the we want the aids to to be allowed into jazza And this is, Houthi says, this is the demand of the world. The General Assembly, the UN General Assembly said this. They said, they called for a ceasefire.

And then the Security, the UN Security Council also voted for, voted unanimously for a resolution that calls for a ceasefire. And then the United States came and vetoed this resolution. So Houthi said, so it's now America who is, who is, who is supporting the killers, who is supporting the killer of children of Israel. And this is, you know, this is a big violation for the human rights laws and for the international laws. and all these kind of laws. Okay, but... Houthi now, yesterday, yesterday, when, I mean, the leader of Houthis, the top leader said,

we will attack it even the U.S. warships if the United States attacked us. if the United States attacked Yemen, we would attack their ships in the Red Sea, and if they come to Yemen, Yemen will be even more difficult than Vietnam and Afghanistan, and this is what Houthis said. And we are here now, and we have to wait and see what happens. All right. Well, a couple of things there. First of all, according to Bloomberg News, the UAE is urging the Biden government to keep the Houthis, or was it, relist them, yeah, to redesignate them because Biden had taken them off of the terrorist list, which of course includes all kinds of sanctions and things. And UAE wants Biden to put them back on the terrorist list, which would ruin the deal. But according to Bloomberg, news, Saudi Arabia doesn't want that. Saudi Arabia, as we have discussed before, learn the hard way that they can't beat the Houthis in this war and that more and more

their oil refining, uh, oil refining capability is, uh, in danger of Houthi drone and missile tech. And so they had been suing for peace. They had, and according to this Guardian article, Nassar, they had, and this is more than we knew, I guess, as much was secret, that they had really made a lot of progress and were even disregarding the Americans in making real progress and were essentially on the verge of signing a real, you know, armistice to end the war between Saudi and the Houthis. And after everything that this country has been through for the last, you know, since 2015 especially, but even before that, of course. But since 2015 especially, the idea that they're going to throw all that away and risk going back to full-scale war with at least the UAE backed by the United States and or the United States.

I mean, it's not going to be Vietnam or Afghanistan. They're not going to put the Marines in the third infantry division so that the Houthis can shoot them up. They're just going to bomb the hell out of you from the air, the way that they've been helping Saudi and UAE do since 2015. and man it can't possibly be worth that you know it's not the will of the world that the hooties start shooting rockets to intervene in this conflict as much as it is you're absolutely correct that the entire general assembly and UN Security Council are essentially unanimous about the humanitarian aid and as well as the ceasefire but and it's the US vetoing it but I mean look at all what's stake here all this this stuff about, oh, we'll come and fight then. You're who we've been fighting this whole time. But we're who the war has finally been ending with after all this time. And so, you know, all the, all the macho, tough guy talk is just, or, and thinking behind that to me is just, at this point completely crazy and and and so dangerous for the the future of civilian life

in Yemen at the hands of the empire that the Houthi government is provoking now you know it's like George W. Bush saying bring him on and then he got all his guys shot up when he should have shut up you know what about that yes but Let me tell you something about Saudi Arabia. For Saudi Arabia, they said over and over again, time and time again to the United States during or over the last few weeks, I am OK with Houthi now. I don't want you to provoke them.

I don't want you to, so I don't want even to get upset from Houthis. I don't want you to escalate with Houthis. So I'm okay with them. If you, if you are concerned with me, if you are concerned about what is happening between me and Houthi, it's okay. We are almost, we are almost, we are almost, we are almost to sign the deal. We have been for, I mean, we have been for one year. now negotiating with Houthis. I don't want to spoil all that in minutes. So, but it's not now, it's not, you know, there is a big pressure from the United States

that tells Saudi to go back to war with Houthis, but I think this does, it doesn't work and it will not work because Saudis are very convinced that it doesn't work to go with with Houthis and it's very dangerous to them. It is very dangerous to the plans of Muhammad bin Salman, the 2030 plan and the economic plan. And so, but it's not only Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates also want something. They want something, as they say, they talk about designating them again as terrorists, also go to war with them. But they don't want to go now. They don't want to go.

Neither Saudi Arabia nor United Arab Emirates. They don't want to go. They don't want to declare they are in war with Houthis. but they are in you know as I told you always they are in complete or a lot of disagreement with each other Saudi Arabia and United Arabians they have different things they have different strategies different tactics and they are different in everythings in the war in Yemen. So this is why they could not come to an agreement

that would be unified with the United States in terms of fighting or not fighting Houthis. So Houthi now has that support from Yemen and from the region and even from everywhere. because he is not Houthi is not that big power or no Housi is it wants only to

help. He wants to translate the demands of the world that says please stop the war in Gaza stop killing people in Gaza stop doing all these

atrocities and war crimes in Gaza. So this is what Houthi wants and also allow the humanitarian aid into Jaze. You don't break this seed

into Jaze. So this is, but I am, I don't think I don't think until now that United States will will be that foolish and wage a war with

Houthis to protect the killers in Israel, that children, killers in Israel, and I think this will be a big, big shame on the United States it has ever done. Hey, guys, I've had a lot of great webmasters over the years, but the team at Expanddesigns.com have by far been the most competent and reliable. Harley Abbott and his team have made great sites for the show and the Institute, and they keep them running well, suggesting and making improvements all along.

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I got to tell you, Nassar, as I know that you've lived through this for the last decade here, there's no shame that prevents the American Empire from doing a damn thing. And what we're risking here is, and I'm not sure exactly how easy it is to see from where you are, but from where I'm sitting in Texas, what we have here, right, is all the Sunni kings are kept. And so, but the Shiites are essentially the enemy alliance, axis of resistance, as they call it, against the American empire in the region, led by Iran. Now they're friends in Baghdad and especially in Damascus more than ever before and Hezbollah as well. And the Houthis, all along the narrative of the hawks has been that the Houthis are nothing but the sock puppets of the Iranians too. You can tell

because they're Shiites. That's all you need to know. And that's why it's okay for the U.S. to help Saudi and UAE kill them all this time or kill innocent civilians in the name of killing them anyway in this war from 2015 to 22 here. And the risk is that just as we see with fighting at the border of Israel and Lebanon, and as we see with strikes back and forth between Shiite militias and American forces in Syria and Iraq right now, Nasser, I know you know where I'm going with this. We're at risk of a real regional war. And for every one rocket that the Houthis launch, because as you say, their intent is to get humanitarian aid in there, to get Israel to stop the fighting, they are essentially adding to Israeli public relations, that it's America

and the West against Iran and their Shiite sock puppets throughout the region, the Shiite crescent. And so this could be just one step toward a real and horrible regional war, worse than what we've seen since Iraq War II. And, you know, nobody can want that. And so the Houthis are, in a way, I mean, look at the map. The Houthis are a bit player in this compared to a rock and Syria and Hesbala.

They're the tail wagging the dog. They should be sitting back and wait until the Ayatollah tells them to go launch rockets. If he's not saying, then there's a reason he's not. Am I making sense here? You are.

You are, yes. You are. And this is the big concern. Scott, this is the big concern with me and with everyone. This is the big concern here and everywhere. But I think, let me just tell you one thing. Let me just tell you one thing. I think the cheapest, the shortest way and the cheapest and the least cost way of avoiding all this is not to strike Houthis now. strike Yemen, but

not to wait a new war to end a war, to end the Israeli war, to end it. Agree. I absolutely agree with you, of course. Yes. Yes, this is the shortest way.

The shortest way, the shortest and the easiest. Why we go to other wars? Why we and we can just stop this war? And that yeah no i completely agree with you um and i guess i could have stipulated that at first it sort of goes without saying but i'm just looking at it more just from the point of view of the hooty role in

this thing now and it seems like such a risk of restarting the most horrible war really at least equal to iraq war to and afghanistan maybe worse the american war against yemen since 2015 and to see that war coming to an end and then the risk being raised again that it could be restarted that and ultimately too this is only a parenthesis for some reason that the more we're fighting against the huthis there the more al-Qaeda and the arabian peninsula and whatever offshoots and all that that have grown up in the last decade here have the advantage and i consider them still to be a danger to American civilian life here.

So that to me is the highest priority that ultimately the American war in Yemen against the Shiites is treason because it's essentially directly benefiting al-Qaeda on the ground and has been this whole time.

So, but no, you're certainly right. And of course I didn't mean to like underplay this. Like, oh, this, all our troubles in the region right now are because of the Houthis, I just mean that in this recent round of violence since October, kicked off by the Hamas jailbreak and slaughter there on October 7th, and then the Israeli insane reprisal ever since, the question is, you know, whether we're talking about Syria, Iraq, or

Yemen, or Lebanon, what's the, or Iran? what's the reaction of the locals what are they going to do how bad might this get and so that's the only way i'm looking at it is you know with an eye toward it being minimized in all cases as much as possible you know a lot of people will benefit not only you know a lot of people i mean you know yeah russia is also watching and the nana is watching and they have their own interest and they have their own calculations and they you know it's not they are they are they are they are they are watching everything I mean it's it's not easy to to to go to to war in such an

important thing in such an important way of you know I mean a water way like Babel Mandah where millions and millions of oil barrels pass every day every day yes it's it's a it will be a big problem Yeah. Well, and now I'm sorry because I only got, what, three more minutes here real quick, two and a half. Can you talk to me a little bit about the situation on the ground, the development of politics in Sana'a since the ceasefire, the relationship, for example, between the Houthi government and the southern socialist secessionists of the transitional council, al-Isla, and other important factions? The most important thing that I continue is Houthi is getting and gaining. a lot of popularity because of these things nowadays. The fighters, the Houthi fighters were, you know,

were raised from the very beginning as, you know, as our enemy is Israel and America. Our enemy is Israel and America. Now they are, they say it's close now. Our dream is, is close to, to be realized or to come through. So they want to, I mean, they don't care. Those people want to continue in this, in never-ending wars.

So the problem is that we are surprised. We are surprised why the Biden administration is giving all these chances. they are doing all this, why they are protecting Israel to this extent, to the extent of risking their security and their interests? This is the thing that is not understood to me and to a lot of people. But for the politics, as you asked me, politics here, it's only now Houthi and for the dialogue between Saudi Arabia and To see, there's a lot, as far as I know, there is a lot of barriers, and the deal would have been declared this month or these weeks if the war was not there.

But now it is not, they are still continuing. And the Saudi side is still insisting on continuing. continuing dialogue with Houthi because they don't want to come back to work with Houthis at all. But United States... I'm sorry, Nassar. I'm so sorry to interrupt you, man, but I just absolutely have to go. I'm at a time wall here. But I hope we can talk again very soon.

Okay, thank you very much. I really appreciate your time, as always, sir. Okay, y'all, that is... Okay, thank you. Okay, thank you. Y'all, that is Nassarabee. he's at yemen dash now dot com the scott horton show anti-war radio can be heard on kpfk 90.7 fm in l a psradyo dot com antiwar dot com scott horton dot org and libertarian institute dot org