Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 12/22/22 Kelley Vlahos on Zelensky’s Visit to Washington DC

Episode Date: December 25, 2022

Next on Antiwar Radio this week was Kelley Beaucar Vlahos of Responsible Statecraft. Scott and Vlahos talk about Zelensky’s visit with Biden and address to Congress on Wednesday. The visit highlighted the evolving politics of aid to Ukraine and gave a window into the mainstream Washingtonian narrative of Ukraine’s current situation. Scott and Vlahos also examine the possibility of negotiations in the face of such high stakes.  Discussed on the show: Rage Against the War Machine Protest Kelley Beaucar Vlahos is Editorial Director of Responsible Statecraft and Senior Advisor at the Quincy Institute. Follow her on Twitter @KelleyBVlahos.  This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott; and Thc Hemp Spot. Get Scott’s interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjYu5tZiG.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For Pacifica Radio, December 22nd, 2022, I'm Scott Horton. This is Anti-War Radio. All right, y'all welcome this show. It is Anti-War Radio. I'm your host, Scott Horton. I'm editorial director of anti-war.com, an editor of the new book hotter than the sun, time to abolish nuclear weapons. You can find my full interview archive, more than 5,800 of them now, going back to 2003 at Scott Horton.org and at YouTube.com slash Scott Horton's show. And you can follow me on Twitter at Scott Horton Show.

All right, before we get into the interviews today, I want to tell you guys about this anti-war protest we're holding on February the 19th in Washington, D.C. I know that's on the other side of the country from LA, but it's just a few hundred bucks away. And it's called Rage Against the War Machine. It's going to be at the Lincoln Memorial. And the thing is hosted by the Libertarian Party and the People's Party in Alliance. I'm speaking there. So is Medea Benjamin and Jimmy Dorr and a bunch of other great people we're working on trying to get Roger Waters, I think, and others.

So please, come on out, help make the thing a spectacle. Help make it matter. It's Rage Againstwar.com to find out more information. Rage Against the War Machine, Anti-War Rally, Washington, D.C., February the 19th. Rage Against War.com. All right, you guys, and our next guest today is the great Kelly Bocar Vlehos. She is the editor of Responsible Statecraft, the article website of the Quincy Institute for Responsible statecraft in Washington. Hi, Kelly. Welcome back to the show. How are you doing? I'm doing great.

Thank you, Scott. I'm so happy to have you on the show here. And a lot of important stuff to talk about. We just kind of went over some developments in the war with Connor Freeman from anti-war.com. So I figure we'll focus more on the politics in the United States with you. Vladimir Zelensky came and gave an address to the U.S. Congress last night. What's going on? Well, it sounded like that that trip was well in the works, I guess, for months. So it wasn't as much of a surprise as we were led to believe. I think in the matter of the aid, the $45 billion that has been allocated for Ukraine aid goes, it's going to pass as of this recording.

it looks like the Congress is poised to pass the omnibus bill that they need to to keep the government going. And in that is that massive new Ukraine aid package. And so this will bring Ukraine aid to, I believe, $113 billion for 2022. Not all of that, of course, is military aid. But in this last package, more than half of that $45 billion is military related, either directly to Ukraine or to replenish the stockpiles that have been so depleted over the last year, the U.S. stockpiles. So we're talking big amounts of money and assistance continuing, though it was interesting that Biden had really pushed back last night in his press conference with Zelensky that he is standing firm against giving Ukraine any more or any offensive, more sophisticated,

advanced weapons. They want to hold the line on defensive weapons. But to me, Scott, we seem committed to keeping this war of attrition going. So to me, saying, oh, well, we're going to stop at offensive weapons. I mean, that's good because I really feel like that would escalate into World War III. But I feel like the billions of dollars were giving them in new weapons every day, every week, is just going to keep that grind going at the expense of millions of Ukrainian lives. Yeah. Well, and, I mean, when they're talking about we demand fighter jets and this kind of thing,

that's obvious to everyone that that would escalate right into war. And as we were just talking about with Connor Freeman, they're already, as the London Times explained, it was on an explicit green light from the American Pentagon that the Ukrainians launched these drone attacks on a Russian air base, more than 300 or however many miles, inside Russia, including damaged nuclear-capable heavy bombers. This is the kind of thing that could escalate into a war between Russia and NATO at any time. Right. So best case scenario, there's a negotiated end to the war right now or the Ukrainians just win. Putin turns around and goes home with his tail between his legs or some kind of thing.

What's going to be the future of America's relationship with Russia after this? How can we ever get it back to where we want it, which is at least the friendliness of the 90s, if not the policies of the 90s, you know? Yeah, I don't know. I mean, to me, and not knowing what's going on behind the scenes. So, you know, a generous take would be, okay, behind the scenes, there is diplomacy going on. And then perhaps Biden, when speaking with Zelensky in private at the White House, talked a little bit about how to start moving both sides, Russia and Ukraine, towards the table to talk and to finally put an end to this war.

But forward-facing, all that was said yesterday was that, that the United States remains committed to helping Ukraine defeat Russia. And like you said, that may not mean overtly giving them offensive weapons, but if we are covertly helping them target Russia in Russia, I don't know how that doesn't escalate. So I would like to see a little bit more of the diplomacy part of this puzzle, which I didn't see a lot of that during this visit. I didn't see a lot, I feel a lot of signals there.

And I believe that needs to happen. Now, the only pushback that we actually saw yesterday was from Republicans and populist sources on Twitter and Tucker Carlson, who were really banging the drum against the unaudited, you know, blank check aid that we're giving Zelensky. That's the only pushback that I've seen so far. Now, whether that's politically motivated and charged, whatever, but the Republicans, or this small slice of Republicans, but very vocal slice, are the only ones calling for some breaks on this sort of avalanche of aid, U.S. taxpayer dollars that are going over to Ukraine for this war. Sorry, hang on just one second. Hey, y'all Scott Horton here for Tennessee Hot Sauce Company. Man, this stuff is so good. They get all different flavors.

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check out this incredible piece of art at rickasali.com slash ron paul and you'll see what i mean use promo code horton and you'll save 25 bucks and this show will get a little kickback too that's rick casali dot com slash ron paul cassali is c a l i rick casali dot com slash ron paul and there's free shipping too and you know you do have just like in libya and in yemen you have this uh what the Obama people call leading from behind where it's almost like a lynch mob where they diffuse responsibility so where you know okay yes we technically are committing genocide in Yemen but really it's just the Saudis and the UAE who are doing it and we're only helping them do it and so it's sort of their fault not ours and it's the same kind of thing here we go oh look we'll give you all

of these missiles and all these weapons and all this training and all this money by like hey hey hey, it's their war. We can't tell them whether they should try to invade Crimea or not. That's purely up to them to decide. Well, geez, I don't know. And the same kind of thing here, where, if anything, we're giving them, according to the London Times, I think quite credibly, a green light. You know, hey, hey, we're not stopping you from attacking inside Russia. Never you mind Crimea or the newly annexed, supposedly annexed territories of eastern Ukraine.

but inside Russia itself, and we're just telling them go right ahead, that's almost certainly bound to lead to further escalation. And by the way, I guess part of the context here too is whether this actually happens or not is uncertain. It's the future. But, you know, all the credible reporting, Kelly, right, is that the Russians are preparing a massive winter offensive that could start at any time here. And so... Yeah, that always bothered me with the talk that I've been hearing over the last week, in particular yesterday, that Ukraine, is one, that they stopped Putin, that, you know, Zelensky said, we are no longer under the tyrannier control of Putin. You know, realistically, let's look at what's going on on the ground

there. And I'm sure you talked to Connor quite a bit about that. To me, they're getting pummeled by missiles and shelling every day. We have this, the threat of this massive invasion or this massive, rather offensive in the works. You know, they're information. infrastructure is so crippled at the height of the winner. I mean, I'm not seeing a lot of winning going on. And I feel like I know that that is to keep morale up and to have some sort of siops against Russia. But I also think that it could be a little bit delusional and unrealistic when we're looking at what's actually going on the ground. And there's not a lot of winning going on. And I feel like if Ukrainians feel like they're winning, of course they're going to

want more U.S. weapons because victory is right around the corner. And it'll be at the expense of really destroying that country and everybody in it. Yeah. I thought it was so telling when after the Ukrainians took back her son that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, he said, look, you boys have done a real good job. You took back her son. I think maybe you should talk now. Yeah. Which I inferred to me that, look, you're going to lose Mary Pole. In fact, I believe it was NBC News. Oh, it was.

It was Andrea Mitchell, Alan Greenspan's wife, was reporting, and her reporter was saying on her show that Biden is telling Zelensky, listen, man, you know, you're going to have to negotiate now. That, you know, outward appearances are that, you know, total victory is at hand. But in reality, we're telling them, dude, you're going to have to negotiate. Which means what? Like, to me, the obvious inference is you're going to lose. Donetsk and you're going to lose at least half of Lujansk and you're going to lose Marya Pohl and you'd be lucky if you get Zaproja and Kurson out of the deal and let's quit while we're behind but not too far behind that was months ago and here he got shouted

down at least months worth here they're asking for more weapons and as you're saying doubling down under the premise that it's working and it looks like you know even the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff is saying guys, we really should be winding this thing down before it gets worse for our side. Yeah, exactly. And I don't know, you know, I'm not a diplomat. I'm not trained in these particular arts. And I realize that, you know, Twitter is probably not the best way or social media.

Overall, it's not the best way to, like, roll out your diplomatic plan. But if there are these diplomatic channels being pursued behind the scenes, great, but I do feel like the signals that I was reading last night in the speech, the reaction to the speech, the press conference was all that we aren't going to force Ukraine to the table or to talk. When they're ready to talk, they'll talk. In the meantime, we're committed to defeating Russia. and we're backing that up with billions and billions of dollars and weapons. So I just don't know. I feel like this is like having it both ways. And perhaps I just don't know enough about diplomacy.

And I'm missing something, but I just, I don't think this is healthy. Yeah, I'm going to err on the side of you're not making an error here, Kelly. I've seen them in action and I've seen you. I don't understand how anyone in the world thinks. that there's anything more important than trying to get a ceasefire in this war on Russia's border. It's the most dangerous thing to happen

probably since the Second World War and, you know, what we're on the precipice of... And look, it's not that there's a very great risk of nuclear war, right? It's just that there is a heightened one and the consequences. And look, it could happen today. The Russians could get a blip

on their computer screen and misunderstand it and think that they're under attack. You know, kind of thing happens all the time when it happens at a time of tension like this a mistake like that could lead or a misunderstanding of diplomatic language or or of military action or even just a severe enough provocation could lead to annihilation exactly um yeah it'll be interesting to see what 2023 brings and we'll have a new a new complexion in Congress, although Mitch McConnell, you know, in the Senate had taken a lot of heat from Republicans who are against this aid

for saying yesterday or the day before that, our number one priority as a country is defeating Russia. Yeah. So I do think that there is going to be a political battle as much as there'll be literal battle on the ground in Ukraine. And I don't know which way it'll go, Scott, but I'm hoping for some real open debate about this aid. It doesn't have to be, I don't care to, you know, take pot shots at Zelensky. He's doing what he's got to do for his country. But I think as an American, I would like to see more of a healthy open debate on how our taxpayer dollars are being spent in this war. And not because I want it for something else, because I'm not sure this is the morally correct thing to do for Ukraine. Yeah. All right, you guys, that is the great Kelly B. Vlehos.

She is the editor of Responsible Statecraft at ResponsibleStatecraft.org. So please check her out there, responsible statecraft.org. Thank you, Kelly. Thank you. And that's it for anti-war radio for today. Thanks to everybody for listening. I'm Scott Horton. Find the full archive at Scott Horton. and I'm here every Thursday from 2.30 to 3 on KPFK 90.7 FM in L.A. See you next week.