Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 12/3/21 Giorgio Cafiero on the Rumors of Russian Mercenaries Fighting in Mali

Episode Date: December 8, 2021

Scott interviews Giorgio Cafiero about an article he wrote last month on France’s war in Mali. Cafiero gives a concise, but thorough, background on the war, how it started and where it stands today. He then explains how anti-French sentiment in the country has been on the rise. In that context, rumors have been making the rounds about a deal between the Mali government and a top Russian mercenary group. Scott and Cafiero discuss what this could mean for the region, and the world, if these rumors are true. Discussed on the show: “Mali could rewrite Russian-French relations in the Sahel” (TRT World) Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington, DC. He writes regularly for the Middle East Institute, The National Interest, and LobeLog. Find him on Twitter @GiorgioCafiero. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: The War State and Why The Vietnam War?, by Mike Swanson; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott; EasyShip; Free Range Feeder; Thc Hemp Spot; Green Mill Supercritical; Bug-A-Salt; Lorenzotti Coffee and Listen and Think Audio. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjYu5tZiG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, y'all, welcome to the Scott Horton Show. I'm the director of the Libertarian Institute, editorial director of antivore.com, author of the book, Pools Aaron, time to end the war in Afghanistan, and the brand new, enough already. Time to end the war on terrorism. And I've recorded more than 5,500 interviews since 2000. almost all on foreign policy and all available for you at scothorton dot for you can sign up the podcast feed there and the full interview archive is also available at youtube.com slash scott horton show all right you guys introducing georgio caffiero CEO of gulf state analytics and a really great writer an analyst on foreign policy as they say this one is in t r t world dot com it's called molly could rewrite russian french relations in the sahel welcome back

to the show how you doing georgio scott it's great to be with you i'm doing well thank you so much for this chance to be back on your show yeah i love having you here and you always write such great stuff in this case uh we're talking about molly aka hilary's war i mean one of Hillary's wars. Really, Obama, of course, is the one who pulled the trigger in Libya. And to start us off here, you guys recap very briefly how the war in Libya spread to Mali, which is the all-important background to the rest of this discussion here. Yes. So this brings us back 10 years, back to 2011. There was the Arab Spring uprising in Libya, which internationalized and regionalized very quickly with a number of countries in NATO and the Gulf

Cooperation Council intervening directly in the Libyan crisis that was going on. We all know how this ended with the destruction of Omar Gaddafi's government and later a civil war that erupted in 2014. But nonetheless, going back to 2011 as the Libyan regime was falling apart, there were various groups from around Africa, from many different African countries that had links to Gaddafi's government. He was a patron of many separatist movements, anti-imperialist movements throughout the African continent and even beyond. Nonetheless, one group that was a that was tied to Gaddafi's government that was an ally of Gaddafi's regime were these Tuareg separatists from northern Mali who had been on the ground in Libya

trying to help the Libyan government of the time survive. Obviously those efforts did not succeed and we know the government fell apart. And so at that point, when it was really the end game for Qaddafi in Libya, there were Tuareg separatists from Northern Mali who returned to Northern Mali from Libya. However, they came back with a ton of weaponry that they picked up in Libya during this failed effort to prop up the Qaddafi government. Back in Northern Mali, with this much greater amount of armed power, they managed to assert themselves very strongly, and this became a crisis for the central government down in Bamako. because of the widespread anger toward the central Malian government for its failure to deal with the Tuareg issue up north, there was a coup in March of 2012. And what also was going on at the same time was that the Tuaregs failed to maintain control

of Northern Mali. who were the ultimate victor, as well as a group of jihadists who were extremely hard line. They took over northern two-thirds of the country, essentially hijacking, if you will, the Tuareg rebellion that gained a lot of momentum because of events in Libya. And so the northern two-thirds of Mali came under control of basically three militant jihadist groups, one of them being al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb, which is the North African offshoot of al-Qaeda, AQI-M. And there were, of course, some others. And this led to some French military intervention that took place in early 2013, Operation Serval.

This definitely dislodged the jihadist forces, but it did not destroy them. And there remains a huge problem with these hardline groups that are linked in some cases to al-Qaeda, some cases to ISIS. They continue to spill a lot of blood all over the Sahel. And despite France's heavy-handed military intervention, Mali is still one of the countries in the Sahel that suffers very much from these extremely violent and dangerous groups that have been terrorizing people in northern Mali all these years. Yeah. Well, as Samantha Power said in her memoir, What, are we supposed to have a crystal ball and see what the future is supposed to be?

I mean, I don't know. Still, at least start a war if we want. No, that was exceptionally well told and exactly correct. And, you know, we covered it on this show all through at the time, of course. And step by step, you nailed it. I just wanted to add one thing, which was that, According to Stephen Zunis, the professor from the Bay Area there, he talked about how the government that was overthrown in the military coup of March 2012 was a former military leader, but a guy who had essentially taken off his uniform and put on a suit and tie and stood for election twice and seemingly meant to leave behind a Democrat. form of government as best he could rather than just declare himself president for life and

this kind of thing and so it was still just a chance but there was it seemed to stephen zunis anyway before all this ever happened he was already you know in tune with what was going on there and it seemed like the guy was really trying to make an effort to transition the government into something with regular elections and a presumption of popular sovereignty of some kind of and that was all ground to a halt because the military, guys who were trained by the United States, of course, were mad that the government was doing such an ineffectual job of protecting from this new jihadist menace coming out of the north. And so they overthrew him to kick him out of the way to take control of the situation, which, of course, they didn't. And they needed French help and all of that anyway. But there was a, in other words, there was a decent shot that maybe there was going to be a less tyrannical system of government for the people of Mali, north and south, and all of that was ground to a halt by this intervention by the jihadists who were driven by the intervention by the Western powers, led by the United States, of course, in Libya.

Well, yeah, you know, it's certainly a great example of spillover effects. In the Sahel region, borders are very, very porous. Many state institutions have failed or are failing. It's very easy for these transnational groups to move across borders and carry lots of weaponry and other things with them. So it was sort of naive to think that the, NATO intervention could have taken place in Libya without some of the countries in the neighborhood feeling the heat. And I also, to your point about democracy in Mali, I think it's also important for us to understand that from the early 1990s up until 2012, there was this

period of time in which Mali was one of the most successful African countries from the standpoint of democratic development. It was a country that had achieved a lot in the early 1990s in terms of transitioning from one-party rule into a democracy. And Mali actually served as a good example to other countries in the continent in terms of how to make real progress when it came to democratic reforms. So it's very unfortunate, as we look back on the past nine, ten years or so, to see how there have been some major problems when it comes to Malian democracy. There have been these coups that have taken place, and there's sort of a big question mark

on the future of democracy in this country. All right. Now, we know that there have been, you know, supposedly, Deniable American forces caught there after the Obama government said they weren't sending anyone. But there was the case of almost certainly it was two Navy SEALs who murdered a Green Beret who found that they were stealing. And then there was the Delta Force guys who got in a supposedly pickup truck wreck with their prostitutes and were revealed in that way.

The French, as you say, have been there fighting since. what for the last um you know eight years now i guess on and off um and so yeah i mean can you give us like what's the status update on how powerful these guys are and then get to uh the entering of the wagner group as you guys write it here yeah definitely so it's important to realize that molly is one of france's former colonies in africa and that the whole Sahel is really, for the most part, made up of countries that gain their independence from France. So fast forward to 21st century, France is by far the most powerful outside actor in Mali and the majority of the Sahel. France is definitely the dominant security player in the

country. So as we mentioned back in January 2013, France took this bold military action to try to liberate northern two-thirds of Mali. You know, I should always put the word liberate in quotes because it always depends on whose perspective you have, but there were many people in Mali at the time who saw it as a liberation or an attempt to liberate northern Mali. And And in the eyes of many Malians back then in 2013, the French were seen as liberators when they took this military action against these extremely violent and hateful jihadist groups that took control of the northern two-thirds of the country. Over the years, the French have maintained a military presence in Mali and other countries

in the Sahel, where they're engaged in similar counterterrorism operations. And what we've seen is French, anti-French sentiments on the rise. This is the case in Mali, as well as other countries close by. And I think this is just sort of an outcome of the French staying for a long time and more people in the country believing that their time has come to leave. They were welcome originally in 2013, but now, you know, I mean, next month is going to mark nine years since that operation began. And there are also those in Mali who understandably frame this in sort of the context of resisting colonialism. Or today, maybe we should

say neo-colonialism. And the fact that France used to be a Molli's colonial ruler is, you know, an extremely important factor when looking at the relationship between Bamako and Paris. As anti-French sentiments have been growing and spreading throughout Mali, the Russians have in various ways been seeking to take advantage of these anti-French sentiments. We've seen a number of Russian media outlets appeal to Malians who would like their country to become, if you will, truly independent. And in September of this year, Reuters reported about a contract that the Malian state is signing with the Wagner Group, or at least rumors of such. Now, the Wagner Group is a Russian mercenary private company, which Western governments maintain is linked to the Kremlin. And the Kremlin maintains that Wagner Group is a totally private company that is not, controlled by the Russian government.

This organization, the Wagner Group, was active in a number of other conflicts, such as Ukraine, Syria. They've also been in a number of African countries, Sudan, Central African Republic, Libya. And now, according to some of these reports and these rumors, the situation in Mali is where they are going to intervene Next. Hey, y'all, check out my new book, Enough Already. Time to end the war on terrorism at enough alreadybook.net. Early reviews are that people either think it's hilarious or they get so angry that they put it down. But it's the Iranian Revolution, the 80s Afghan War, the Iran-Iraq War, Iraq War I, Iraq War I,

Iraq War I half, and then Afghanistan, Iraq War II, Somalia, Pakistan, Libya, Syria, Iraq War III, Iraq War 3, Yemen, and all the special operations wars throughout Africa in the aftermath of the war in Libya. It's all there for you. It might change your friend's mind. Enough already. Time to end the war on terrorism at enough already book.net. Hey guys, Scott Horton here for Expanddesigns.com. Harley Abbott and his crew do an outstanding job designing, building, and maintaining my sites, and they'll do great work for you. You need a new website?

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and here's how you can get a lifetime subscription to listen and think audio books just donate $100 to the Scott Horton show at scotthornton.org slash donate. Am I wrong here, Georgia, that they're on America's side in Libya and in Mali here. The Wagner group?

Yeah. So in Libya, they were supporting General Halifa Hoftar during the Libyan Civil War and they continue to have a presence in Libya. some people think the U.S. sort of played both sides in the Civil War, and Trump, of course, gave his congratulations to Hoftar at the start of his 2019 offensive on Tripoli, but at least officially speaking, the U.S. has been supportive of the U.N. recognized government in Tripoli that Hoftar was fighting. So that might actually be an example of the U.S. and Wagner Group being at odds with each other. In Mali, though, the U.S. is very concerned about the possibility of Wagner Group playing a role in terms of helping the central government in Bamako deal with the crisis of terrorism. When Anthony Blinken was out in Africa last month, one of the countries he went to was Senegal,

and he specifically addressed this Russian mercenary group saying he would, that the U.S. would certainly not welcome them having any sort of activities take place inside Mali. And now, just to be clear here, it's not because, well, I don't want to be too prejudicial about this, But I don't think, Georgia, it's not because, like in Syria and Yemen, they're just on the terrorist side. It's that they want the French and their own deniable forces and they're doing the fighting rather than the Russians edging them out and taking their place, fighting against the jihadists here and then gaining overall influence in the country. Is that correct? Yeah, I agree. This has to do with questions about Russia's overall Africa foreign policy.

and Moscow's ambitions across the continent. The French definitely see the Sahel as a region where France should be the dominant outside power. And French officials have been very bold in terms of responding to these reports and these rumors of a deal between the junta in Mali and this Russian group, officials from Paris have sent very strong warnings to Mali telling them that the West African

country would find itself a very isolated of Wagner group is going to come in and help out with the counterterrorism operations. Of course, Mali is very rich with many natural resources and the mercenary group according to these reports and rumors is going to receive would receive compensation in the form of access to certain natural resources in the country. So that is a really important factor. We have to keep in mind when talking about reasons why Western countries such as France and the United States are extremely troubled by the possibility of the Russians coming into Mali and successfully exploiting a wedge between the Mali and state and society on one side

and France and other Western countries on the other. And you say that, I mean, I guess so far French companies aren't getting kicked out or anything, but that's what they're afraid of is that the Russians are going to gain so much influence that they're able to really exclude the French. Do you think that that's likely? I think we need to be cautious when trying to assess what's really going on between Russia and Molly. I think there is a risk of reading into things too much. I don't want to dismiss the significance of these concerns that French officials have about Wagner Group,

but I don't see this organization, this mercenary group replacing France. as the dominant power in Mali anytime soon. I think they could gain some influence at France's expense, but again, I don't think the Russians will be replacing the French anytime soon when it comes to this role in Mali. I think what Russia might want to keep on doing and what I think it could do is sort of use Mali when it comes to sort of war of nil.

narratives and to sort of continue trying to make soft power gains in Mali through media in other forms. You know, when the Mali and leaders deny that there's such a contract that they're signed with this Russian mercenary group, but they have also made it very clear that Mali is a sovereign nation that has the right to enter into security agreements with whichever powers it chooses and that Mali does not need to get a permission slip signed in Paris before it enters some sort of a contract with some other country or company. Russia supports Mali very much. Russia has a strong relationship with Mali, going back to the Cold War when the Soviet Union had a

strong relationship with Mali. And Russian diplomats emphasize that the Malian leadership has every right to make whatever decisions it makes. And then, of course, Russia's line is that the Wagner Group is not, you know, linked to the Kremlin. It's a private company and that this is a matter between a private Russian company and the Malian government and nothing that the Kremlin is required to address. So, like I said, there's a lot of, you know, emphasis on these ideas of Malian independence. and sovereignty, and I think Russia is keen to support Mali diplomatically and also in terms of some security domains, but again, I think probably we could have this discussion a few years

down the line, and by that point, I think France will still remain the dominant force in in Mali and the Sahel. And now, by your reckoning, does it make any difference to the average American whatsoever? I think after the 9-11 attacks, there was a lot more concern in the U.S. about terrorist threats to the United States. And, of course, Sahel was one region in the world where the U.S. started to carry out more anti-terrorism operations. the aftermath of 9-11, but to be honest with you, I really doubt that most people in America have any idea that, you know, Timbuktu is anything other than a word in a famous expression. I think what goes on in northern Mali is so far removed from the minds of most American citizens

right now. Well, and as we talked about all the jihadists got there from Libya, where America took their side against Gaddafi and created this entire mess. And as also discussed, the reason the Wagner group is there is, it's not like they're there to support Al-Qaeda. They're there to kill these guys too.

So, as far as American security, if you stretch to say that any bin Ladenite anywhere is a threat to the United States, which is a big stretch, but, you know, even if you accept that, or if you're concerned

about the local menace of the we're talking about who gets to take the lead in fighting them and then who gets to you know benefit economically from access to resources or whatever but that's a fight between the russians and the french that i don't give a damn about even if you waterboarded me i don't think i could care at all which country's company gets the contract to mine whatever it is out there you know it's ridiculous yeah you know you make a good point that in certain ways they're definitely definitely is some common cause here. Neither Washington, Paris, nor Moscow would like to see the Malian state collapse again with scores of jihadist militias taking over a huge amount of territory in the Sahel.

That's what we saw in 2012. And I don't think there's any government in the world that has an interest in seeing a repeat of that. But, you know, the French, an important point I did not bring up earlier, I'd like to raise now. The French have been talking about their plans for reducing their military footprint in Mali and the Sahel. The French believed that they have made huge investments in this region since 2013, in that things have not necessarily paid off so well. And when this became apparent, the Malian leadership accused France of abandoning the country,

which the French officials responded quite angrily. So I think it's important, as you imply, for us to think about how the French might, at the risk of being, sounding naive, I think we should consider the possibility of France seeing a Russian role in Mali as something that's not extremely negative. And to realize that maybe down the line there could be some cooperation between France and Russia that is productive in the Sahel and can help local governments take on jihadist groups more effectively.

And I would go as far as saying when we look at the extent to which France has been much softer, if you will, on Russia compared to Western governments, you know, that Macron administration has emphasized that they see Russia not as an enemy, but as a rival, which is very different from how you hear some other Western governments talk about Russia. I think we can be open to the possibility of there being some sort of a shared understanding between Paris and Moscow in the future when it comes to Mali and perhaps other parts of the Sahel. Yeah. All right. Well, it's a fine mess, but as you say, there's no reason really why these people can't get along. Seems like the less intervention by the United States and it all, the better for both sides, or all sides, I should say. Well, yeah, for now, the Biden administration is going to probably do quite a bit to push back against any sort of Russian effort to gain greater influence in Mali.

The fact that, you know, Blinking was raising this issue while in Senegal last month, I think underscores how concerned the White House is. I'm sure the White House will probably support French measures taken against Russia because of these conflicting interests in Mali. Yeah. All right. Well, listen, man, I really appreciate you coming back on the show. You do such great work, Giorgio. I appreciate it a lot. Thank you so much.

It's always a pleasure. All right, you guys. That is Giorgio Caffiero writing in TRT World. Molly could rewrite Russian-French relations in the Sahel and check them out at Gulf State Analytics. He's also on Twitter. The Scott Horton Show, Anti-War Radio, can be heard on KPFK 90.7 FM in L.A.

APSRadio.com, anti-war.com, Scott Horton.org, and Libertarian Institute.org.