Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 2/10/22 Ray McGovern on the Russia Invasion Panic

Episode Date: February 14, 2022

Ray McGovern joined Scott on Antiwar Radio this week to discuss the hysteria over a Russian invasion of Ukraine. McGovern explains why no such invasion will be taking place. They then discuss the reasons the U.S. government has to stir up panic and what both sides here actually want. Lastly, McGovern gives his opinion on William Burns, the current Director of the CIA.  Discussed on the show: “Putin Is Not Stupid and That’s Good” (Antiwar.com) Support KPFK Ray McGovern is the co-creator of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity and the former chief of the CIA’s Soviet analysts division. Read all of his work at his website: raymcgovern.com. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: The War State and Why The Vietnam War?, by Mike Swanson; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott; EasyShip; Free Range Feeder; Thc Hemp Spot; Green Mill Supercritical; Bug-A-Salt and Listen and Think Audio. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjYu5tZiG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For Pacifica Radio, February the 15th, 2022. I'm Scott Horton. This is Anti-War Radio. All right, y'all, welcome to the show. It is Anti-War Radio. I'm your host, Scott Horton. I'm the editorial director of Anti-War.com. and the author of the book, Enough Already.

Time to end the war on terrorism. You can find my full interview archive, more than 5,600 of them now, going back to 2003 at Scott Horton.org and at YouTube.com slash Scott Horton's show. All right, introducing the great Ray McGovern, former CIA analyst and chief of their Soviet division back in the day,

and he spent this entire century being a great anti-war activist, co-founder of veteran intelligence professionals for sanity and now full-time writer at anti-war.com as well, I am so proud to say. Welcome back to the show. Ray, how are you, sir? I'm doing well, Scott. Thanks for having me. Very happy to have you here. So there's so much going on. Let's start with the bottom line, which is, if I may sum it up, your position, sir, is that the Russians never were going to invade Ukraine. And this whole thing is essentially a tempest in a teapot built up in Washington, D.C., last November. But what is the real context? What is the threat from Vladimir Putin? And what should

Americans be concerned about here? Ray? Well, Scott, I cut my teeth on analyzing Soviet Union and Russia. And we used to be heavily dependent on what Russian and Soviet leaders said. I mean, like empirical analysis of what they said today and what they said yesterday. And what they said, and how it differed and what they might say tomorrow. So it's kind of a con to suggest that we practitioners of that art can't make reasonable conclusions based on what we know of what has been said before and what we know more important of a leader like Vladimir Putin, who has been in charge now for almost 20 years. Now, when I say, as I have been saying for two and a half,

months or so, the Russians would be stupid to invade Ukraine. I wonder why nobody pushes back on that. In other words, if they're going to invade Ukraine, they have to have a reason. They have to have a plan, you know. It's not like invading Iraq like we did back in 2003. It's not like invading Afghanistan. The Russians usually have a plan, right? And what possible plan could they have. I mean, tell me, what would they do day two or day four? Who in their right mind would invade a country that used to be prosperous, a country that used to be the breadbasket of Europe, and now is a basket case given what Victoria Newland and other people in our state department did to it by fomenting a coup in February 2014.

Now it is the poorest country in Europe. Now it's going downhill very quickly. So why Putin want to invade that? Plus the fact that looking at Putin over the years, I see him as a very cautious, very cautious, very discreet. He will always use other measures rather than brute military force. Why? Because he's afraid. He's justifiably and understandably afraid of what the crazies in Washington

or even Kiev might do if they had a justified, in quotes, reason for doing it, that is, employing military force. So relax, folks, relax listeners. It's not going to happen. There'll be no Russian invasion of Ukraine. Will there be threatening presence around Ukraine? Of course, there will. Will there be practice landings in the Black Sea?

Yes, there will. They're going on today. But the whole thing is a political maneuver. And white people can understand that massing troops can be a political lever as well as an indicator that those troops will do something really stupid. White people can't understand that. So it's kind of hard to explain. Yeah.

All right. And hang on one second. Ray, we're going to do a little fundraising here. Sure. That's right. And it is fundraising time here at KPFK 90.7 FM in Los Angeles. Of course, that's 98.7 FM in Sanjubl. Santa Barbara, 93.7 FM in San Diego, and 99.5 FM in Ridgecrest and China Lake. Pacifica Radio

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and participating in helping to run the station. You can get involved that way and anyone who donates $75 or more and you'll get a copy of my new book enough already. Time to end the war on terrorism which has been endorsed by Daniel Ellsberg

Matthew Ho, Gareth Porter, Ramsey Burrude, Andrew Coburn, and Aaron Mottay, among others. It's a history of all of America's Middle East Wars since 1979. I think y'all really like it. Again, just call 818985-5735. That's 81895-5735. Or go to kpfk.org to donate today. All right, now talking with Ray McGovern here on anti-war radio this morning. Luckily, again, on the subject.

of course of the Ukraine crisis right now. It's true, right, isn't it, that the Ukrainian government has been saying since November that we don't really know what y'all are talking about. We don't think the Russians are invading. And then I guess they played along for a little while to get some weapons. But then even in the last couple of weeks, Zelensky has been saying essentially, geez, we wish Joe Biden would shut up. You're crashing our economy. We don't even think this is a real threat. But you're causing all these other consequences for us. us. So, I don't know, how much long before the Americans just declare victory and declare that their Homer Simpson bear spray has kept the bear away and that they succeeded in deterring the

evil Putin from his dastardly plans? And then we can go back to talking about dancing with the stars again or something. Well, it all depends, really. It all depends on track two. And what I mean by that are the negotiations going on now between the U.S. and Russia, on things that really matter. Now, Putin has been complaining, well, well before 2014, but when the coup happened in Kiev in 2014, he complained loudly that he had to annex Crimea, why?

Most important, those are his words, most important was the prospect of having so-called ABM sites put in Crimea. Crimea. Now, ABM sites shouldn't be a real big threat because they were characterized as being a defense against Iranian, mind you, Iranian ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, neither of which Iran had at the time. Then there was the agreement where Iran could not possibly do that for five, ten years. And yet these ABM so-called missiles kept going into Romania and Poland. And what's funny, too, I'm sorry, but I have to add here, if people aren't that good

on Southwest Asian and Eastern European geography, take a look at a map and tell us what you think about Iran's threat to Poland. Sorry, Ray, go ahead. Well, it was laughable, and Putin called us out on that, you know, but nobody played that in the press. So these sites keep going in. They're already operational in Romania. They're almost there in Poland. And so what's the threat? Well, as Putin himself has said many times, the threat is this, to be crude about it, the holes, the capsules into which the so-called ABM missiles fit are exactly the same ones into which things like Tomahawk missiles fit, okay? Now, Tomahawk missiles, the subsonic cruise missiles,

in danger a good portion of Russia's retaliatory nuclear force. And so Putin, you know, he's thinking about defending his country. He knows that the ABM treaty is dead, the ABM being the anti-ballistic missile treaty. So what do the Americans have in mind? Oh, what they have in mind is building. building foe ABM sites to fit the Tamahawk missiles, which endanger Russia's strategic force. That's what it's all about.

Now, guess what? When Putin called Joe Biden and said, look, please, let's talk. And Biden must have said, well, wait a second. Our negotiators are going to be getting together in Geneva in just 12 days. What do you need to talk about? Well, what came out of that was Biden assured the Russians that the U.S. has no intention of putting offensive strike missiles in Ukraine. Big deal.

Okay. Then the next question would be, how do we prevent them from using Tomahawks in Romania and Poland? Well, what the U.S. offered to do was the time-tested tactic of inspections, you know, trust but verify. In other words, you're saying, Ray, that Biden's climbing down on all the important parts of this. In fact, even that counteroffer, as it was leaked, it's full of all this bluster. But boy, on the substance, it says, we really need to sit down and talk about this

over and over again. Yeah, that's right. The notion that Putin is lusting for a piece of paper signed by the U.S. that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO. Well, that's a propaganda ploy. Why a signed piece of paper? Because in the next sentence, Putin always says, You didn't give us a signed piece of paper when you promised not to expand NATO one inch to the west. Now we're going to require a signed piece of paper. Does it mean anything? Putin points out in the next sentence that, you know, a signed treaty about ABMs or assigned treaty about intermediate nuclear force that. The U.S. left that without so much as an explanation.

So the signature doesn't really mean much. Biden himself is saying there's no prospect Ukraine entering NATO, quote, in the near term. So that's rhetoric. What really matters are these offensive missiles that could be put in these same capsules in Poland, Romania, and they're still negotiating, of course, about Ukraine, but Biden has already promised. That's the outcome of that very hurried, a demanded call by Putin just 12 days before the negotiator. got together on the 10th of January. So these things are real.

And if they're being negotiated quietly, that's good. If we don't know about it, well, it's too bad, but it's better that way because the military industrial complex is going to jump all over this. Now, Raytheon makes tomahawk missiles. And Lockheed makes parts of them, and Lockheed makes these other missiles that are high altitude defense missiles. So these things are real problems for Biden, whether he can face into the mickey mat, what I call the military, industrial, congressional, intelligence, media, academia, think tank complex.

And that covers pretty much the mickey mat, whether he can face into them is an open question. But so far, he has given on essential points. and they, even though Biden, even though Blinken, as recently as four hours ago now, so the Russians can invade, the Russians can invade, I mean, they're beginning to look pretty stupid, but as long as he can say that in one voice and then have his negotiators look into these offensive strike missiles and the other, then that, you know, there's some prospect this thing will go away. All right.

Now, so talk to us about America's, well, the American people. people's greatest long-term allies, the Germans. They're really helping tamp things down here, aren't they? Well, you know, I always love it when the Germans help nullify and interpose between me and the federal government. Sometimes we're really counting on them. Well, as you know, Chancellor Schultz appeared in Washington this past week. And he had a a press conference after the talks with Biden. And Biden made bold to say, look, if the, if the, I want to quote the White House press release here, if Russia invades, and that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.

But how will you? I mean, how will you do that exactly, since the project and control of the project is within Germany's control, President Biden? We will. I promise you. I'm sorry, Ray. Let me just interrupt to clarify here for people not familiar that Nord Stream 2 is this gas pipeline, natural gas pipeline, from Russia to Germany, and then the money flows the other way, that the Americans object to strongly for, they say, strategic reasons, but as Rand Paul points out, for mercantilist reasons, too. They have Texas natural gas companies that want a monopoly on selling to Germany instead. That's a big part of it. Sorry, hang on just one second. Hey, guys, anybody who signs up to listen to this show by way of Patreon will be invited to join the Reddit group. And I'm going to start posting stuff over there more. That's patreon.com slash Scott Horton's show. Thanks.

Hey, y'all, libertosbella.com is where you get Scott Horton's show and Libertarian Institute, shirts, sweatshirts, mugs, and stickers and things, including the, great top lobstas designs as well. See, that way it says on your shirt, why you're so smart? Libertas Bella, from the same great folks who bring you ammo.com for all your ammunition needs too. That's Libertasbella.com. You guys check it out.

This is so cool. The great Mike Swanson's new book is finally out. He's been working on this thing for years. And I admit, I haven't read it yet. I'm going to get to it as soon as I can. But I know you guys are going to want to beat me to it. It's called Why the Vietnam War? nuclear bombs and nation building in Southeast Asia, 1945 through 61.

And as he explains on the back here, all of our popular culture and our retellings and our history and our movies are all about the height of the American war there in, say, 1964 through 1974. But how do we get there? Why is this all Harry Truman's fault? Find out in why the Vietnam War by the great Mike Swans. available now. But anyway, go ahead. So the Americans under Obama, Trump, and Biden, they've tried to stop this project, but the Germans just keep steaming ahead anyway. So now I'm caught us up. Go ahead. Yeah, well, they've invested $11 billion, a billion with a B in it. And it's really essential for supplying Europe with natural gas they need to heat their homes, for God's sake.

So here's Biden getting up with the Chancellor of Germany and saying, we will stop it. And then they turned to the Chancellor. Do you agree with that? We will always follow unanimously the NATO guy. In other words, circumlocution. I mean, Schultz gave it a new name. It was very artful. He said everything, but what the press wanted him to say, and that is, yes, Germany will cancel Nord Stream 2.

Nord Stream 2 is really, really big. Germany is a big factor now. And, you know, here Schultz goes back to Berlin. And he said, look, folks, it was all predicated on this hypothesis that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. You know, it's not going to happen. So it's all subjunctive. So give me a break. You know, I didn't say yes.

I didn't say no. But you want me to say, well, give me a break. More important than Germany is China. And I would like to just make sure that I include the fact that what accounts for Putin's assertiveness? After being sort of Mr. Milk toast at the first summit in June 16th last year, he all of a sudden got really assertive. And now we know what he's just sort of demanding. Well, what happened? Well, he found out at the June 16 summit that Biden was from, Biden had been very poorly advised on the real correlation of forces in the world, and that is Biden told Putin, we know that you're being squeezed by China.

We know you have a long, long border. China aspires to be the military dominant factor. We know you've got real problems with China. Putin turned to his advice and said, where the hell did he get all this? And the next several months were spent by Putin and Chinese President Z, trying to give Biden kind of a school lesson in the fact that the triangle, the relationship between Russia, China, and the United States has changed markedly. China and Russia are together, and they've found all kinds of expressive ways to do to, to. reassure people about that. They talk about an alliance that exceeds in warmth, in closeness, and in effectiveness,

the traditional military alliance. So Biden got religion. He asked us folks about that and say, oh, yeah, actually Putin's right there. They're very close. They're not on loggerheads. And he changed his change. Who wants, does our military want to deal with a two-front? war with the two most powerful other countries in the world, Russia and China. I mean, they have to be

crazy if they think that you can take on, take them both on. Even Brzynski said, we don't want to do that. So I think the military and the other people said, let's be a little more realistic here. China is backing Putin on the core interests on his approach to NATO. And that's big, because it's all but unsaid. It's unsaid, but all but clear that if there's a flare-up, if there are hostilities in the West, there's the likelihood that China will flex its muscles in the South China Sea and perhaps even the Taiwan Straits.

Nobody wants that. We can't deal with that. We're going to lose. That, I think, is the realistic thing that was being taught to Putin after his real major gaffe, bragging about how he told the Russians how scared they should be about being squeezed. His word, squeezed by China. All right. Hold on one second, Ray. I've got to raise some money for KPFK.

Sure. That's right. It is fundraising time. Again, Scott Horton here for anti-war radio on KPFK, 90.7 FM in Los Angeles. Of course, again, 98.7 FM in Santa Barbara, 93.7 FM in San Diego and 99.5 FM in Ridgecrest and China Lake. I'm here every Sunday morning bringing new anti-war radio. Interviews with Gareth Porter mostly. Sometimes Ray McGovern. We talk about what's true and what's false about the wars here.

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happen for you every day here on KPFK. Now again, I want to emphasize that anybody who donates at least $75 to KPFK's Winterfront Drive here will get a copy of my new book, enough already. Time to end the war on terrorism. It's a history of all the wars from 1979, and I'm absolutely a nonpartisan and blame Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden in equal measure and hold them responsible for all of their actions and all their men and women who helped them do it all too. And I try to show the cause and effect of America's terror wars ever since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and all of America's intervention in the region since then. And again, it's endorsed by the

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Yeah. Well, the Normandy format, which is Germany, France, Russia, and Ukraine, met again two weeks after they met in Paris, and they met again this time in Berlin just yesterday. Now, the only readout we have is from Russia. And here's the task roundup here. Did not bring results. The talks brought no results. The parties could not overcome differences regarding the Minsk agreements. And that was. was said by the Russian participant Dmitri Kozak. Now, that's bad news. That's bad news. What does that mean? Well, the agreements that they're trying to implement include not only a ceasefire along the line with Danyetsk and Lvansk, they include a regional autonomy for those two provinces, and they include a change in the Ukrainian constitution. Now, is this some pipe dream? No, it was It was approved by the UN, for God's sake.

The Ukrainians have been dragging their feet, and Ukrainians don't really matter to a, not out of Hill of Beans, it's the U.S., it's the Victoria Nulans that are saying, hang tight, no concessions here. We don't want any regional autonomy for Hulgunsk and Danyetsk, what we'd really like to see, Soto Voce, is a kind of limited Russian invasion of Ukraine. And then we can kill Nord Stream 2, which is so critical to Russia and to Western Europe.

That's what Newland wants. She said she wanted that six weeks ago, and that's the name of her game. Now, whether she's in charge or not is really the question. She, of course, was responsible for going to the UN for that debacle. But whether she's guiding the negotiations, the ones that really matter, the ones on intermediate range and short range. ballistic missiles, which was, of course, the treaty called intermediate range nuclear missiles, which was, you know, annulled just about 10 years ago.

If that comes back into being with inspections, you know, with inspections, trust, but verify, then that could have a real calming effect on our list. As suffice it to say, again, that they are negotiating on this. they are being very quiet about it and not even the press is giving it much play but the hope is there and that's one reason why i think poochin would never invade ukraine all right now uh give us just one minute if you could about the importance of the character of our current CIA director william burns and you know his unique character what that has to do with how this is playing out now and some have worked very closely with Bill Burns, say that he's an honest guy and that he's

about as a smarter guy as you're going to run into. Okay. Now, he was told by Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, look, not means yet, no Ukraine entry into NATO. He was told that in 2008. And he explained quite deftly why that would be, why strategic interests would impel Russia to react very, very strongly. Now, that was 2008. So do the math. What's that? 14 years ago. Now he's CIA director. And now Biden is using him as a kind of unofficial emissary, not only to Russia, but also to Ukraine, which we find out surreptitiously. So is Bill Burns playing a constructive role as one of the adults in the room? I think the answer is Yes. And he said in his own memoirs that the Russians are right and we're wrong in terms of

pushing the envelope in Ukraine. So that's just come out by some industrious investigator who actually read Bill Burns's memoirs. He comes out just the opposite of how Biden and Victoria Nolan are talking. And so there's some hope there. There may be other adults in the room. But I think the one that really counts is Bill Burns, and I hope I'm right on that. One can always hope, but there was someone who told Biden, look, you better get off this hook. You better start negotiating because Putin, not only is serious this time, but he has China. He has China at his back. We can't afford a two-front war.

All right, you guys, that is the great Ray McGovern, former CIA. analyst, former chief of the Soviet division over there. And now regular writer for anti-war.com. His latest is Putin is not stupid. And that's good. He's at anti-war.com slash McGovern. Thank you again, Ray. Most welcome. All right, you guys, and that has been anti-war radio for this morning. I'm your host, Scott Horton. I'm the editorial director of anti-war.com. I'm the author of Enough Already. Time to end the war on terrorism. Find my full interview archive at scothorton.org and youtube.com slash scott horton's show and donate today to kpfk just go to kpfk.org or call 818985 5735 that's 8189k and thank you very much i'm here

from 830 to 9 every sunday morning on kpfk 90.7 fm in l a see you next week Thank you.