Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 3/17/23 Nasser Arrabyee on the Major Progress Towards Peace in Yemen

Episode Date: March 22, 2023

Nasser Arrabyee is back to discuss the improving situation on the ground in Yemen. They talk about two huge developments, first that the Saudis have agreed to most of the Houthis’ requests in their negotiations to end the war, and second that the UAE is planning to start talks with the Houthis. Scott and Arrabyee dig into the implications of this progress, weigh the possibility that the U.S. will switch sides again to restart the drone war against Al-Qaeda and discuss the lingering effects of famine and disease on the Yemeni population.  Discussed on the show: “Suspected US Drone Strike Kills Three Alleged al-Qaeda Members in Yemen” (Antiwar.com) Nasser Arrabyee is a Yemeni journalist based in Sana’a, Yemen. He is the owner and director of Yemen-Now.com. You can follow him on Twitter @narrabyee. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott’s interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, y'all, welcome to the Scott Horton Show. I'm the director of the Libertarian Institute, editorial director of anti-war.com, author of the book, Fool's Aaron, Time to End the War in Afghanistan, and The Brand New, Enough Already, Time to End the War on Terrorism. And I've recorded more than 5,500 interviews since 2004. almost all on foreign policy and all available for you at scothorton dot for you can sign up the podcast feed there and the full interview archive is also available at youtube dot com slash scott horton's show okay you guys on the line i've got nasser arby on the line from sena yemen welcome back to the show nasser how you doing sir thank you very much for having me

uh very happy to have you here so uh looks like more good news on the Yemen war front, especially, I think, in regards to the breaking report from last week, I don't know, breaking, the report from last week, that China has helped to forge a new piece between Saudi Arabia and Iran. And then the idea is that wrapping up the last loose ends on ending the war in Yemen will be part of that. So that's what I hope you're about to say. What do you say? Well, I think what's happened between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with the help of China,

is something very important for ending the war in Yemen. But what's more important is what's happening between. Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. You know, what's happening between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are very, very important and very serious in the direction of ending this war. And there are a lot of indications for that. Okay. Go ahead.

Yeah, I had heard that they had even thrown their appointed ruling council out of the way and the Saudis were dealing directly with the Houthis now for the first time. the UN or the Americans or anyone else involved. Is that right? Exactly. Exactly. So Saudi Arabia now wants to end this war. But of course, what's happening between Saudi Arabia and Iran is also helping in the same direction, of course, especially for, you know, for the outside world. They understand that it's in a way or another. The Houthis are, you know, support in it, although they are denying completely they are not subordinates to Iran, and they are not receiving any orders from them.

But politically, of course, this will help a lot. But let me tell you why it's important, why what is happening between Houthis and Saudis are important. Saudi Arabia now wants to guarantee its security and maybe it discovered and it concluded that the only body or the most important body in Yemen that will guarantee its security is the Houthis or are the Houthis. And this is why now what's happening between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Oman and somewhere else are more important for this. Saudi Arabia now ready to meet all the conditions or most of the conditions of the Houthis, and the most important of which are paying the salaries. Saudi Arabia itself will pay the salaries for the people, for the civil servants and the military servants in south and north,

which means for the Houthis and for the Saudi-backed government. without any without any differences between the two bodies. That was the most important condition Houthi was offering from the very beginning. The second thing will be

the airports and the boats. Airboats and boats now, the airport of Sana'a is almost now open and it soon will be open for maybe all countries and all destinations and

the boats of Houdaida the three boats of Houdaida are now very open for all kinds of ships, commercial and all kinds of goods without any delays in Saudi Arabia without any delays in the boats

of Saudi Arabia. Just the licenses from the UN in Djibouti and from Djibouti directly to Hudeda. And this is also one of the

Houthis demands which is the lifting the the blockade. And also there is is also a very important indication about the seriousness of this attempt or this efforts to end the war is what is happening now in Geneva nowadays.

In Geneva nowadays, they started, all parties, the Saudi-backed government and the Houthis have been talking in Geneva for the third day now, and they will last about 10 days for ending the issue of prisoners, all for all, all. And this is what's going to happen most likely. that's all the prisoners from the Houthisides will be released and in return for all the prisoners from the Saudi-backed government okay so I'm sorry go ahead there is also one more important it's also one indication then you can talk you can ask me whatever you want

sure the tanker the tanker the saffert tanker. This is a decayed tanker, which is anchored of the Houdaida sea boats, with about 1 million, more than 1 million barrels on board. And it is, of course, it is stricken and it is decayed, and it may explode at any time. causing a huge environmental disaster. What is happening to it now is that the UN has recently bought a new tanker or hired a tanker to transport or to transfer all the barrels, the one million barrels on the stricken one, on the stricken one, to the good one, to the one that is hired from United Nations.

This is also, all these things are indications that there is, the efforts at this time are completely different and the people are here in Yemen and in the region are expecting that Saudi and Houthis and UN will announce in the, in the, in the few coming days, we'll announce a ceasefire. Saudi Arabia is saying that they want this ceasefire, a permanent ceasefire, this truth, they want it to be a permanent truth. But we'll have to wait and see. Just I think in the beginning of Ramadan, there is four days from now.

at Mosque and they will declare it as they did last year. Last year they declared the truth on the first day of Ramadan, which is in last April. This time they will do the same and because the last one lasted for six months as a truce and last and six months a truth without truth. till today, which means they want to end the war anyway. Now you can ask whatever you want. Okay, sure. Listen, so, I mean, one of the most important things there is the salaries that you say is

the hang-up there that's still to be resolved. How much money are we talking about? Because the Saudi's revenue is billions a day, right? They could take care of this by writing one check, couldn't they? Yes, we're talking about millions of dollars, of course, because, but I don't think they're going to pay all the unpaid salaries. I think they will do it in installments, not necessarily. And people, anyway, people now need their money anyway, to start for the first months and then they will talk about the months, the years, the unpaid years.

So I think they will start from this month or next month or this month, or this month, Ramadan. and the Eid, because it means a lot, and it is very simple, like as Ramadan, Hulimams and Eid that follows Ramadan. So it's millions of dollars. But Saudi Arabia, I think, doesn't care about this. Saudi Arabia would do it. If it receives the assurances and the security guarantees,

they want. And the most important thing of these, guarantees of these security guarantees is the no-man land or the, you know, they want a place between the two countries or between the two borders that will be empty. And Houthi was a little bit hesitant about this, but now they seem to be willing to say okay and to agree on this in particular because they in return Saudis will give huthis assurances and guarantees for its participation in the government in a way that is that is that is okay that will be okay for him not any

participation. This is because Houthi is, you know, views themselves as you know, as a big body or something like this and they want security

guarantees for their participation in the government. With something that is that is proportional to its weight to its strength

Right This is what This is the big concern of Houthi And Saudi Arabia Understood or seems at least Seems to have understood This point in particular For Houthis

And this is why they have been talking For months With Houthi Without any UN Without any all right i'm sorry let me stop you your internet's cutting out again there um the last thing i i picked up what you were saying that without they're dealing directly and without even the internationally recognized government um so this is the important point this is you know the crux of what i wanted

to follow up with you about was i think what you're telling me is the Saudis are prepared to accept the fact that the Houthis not only are going to be part of the new government, they're going to be the dominant faction in the new government. They rule the capital city. They have for eight years now, and there's nothing Saudi can do about that. They lost their war. Yes, I think the only guarantee for Saudis would be this, to be honest. The only guarantee with the Houthi, because you know, Saudi Arabia, we know Saudi Arabia, always historically. They want some who is strong on the ground if I if this somebody who is strong on the ground if he's loyal with me if I trust him this is what Saudi Arabia wants this is this is all

this is this is what Saudi Arabia wants to to to to have from from from from from any another one Saudi Arabia didn't find this one in the other bodies Unfortunately, because the so-called internationally recognized government is very divided into many, many, many bodies, very fructious. And the Saudis didn't find anyone that would guarantee its security at all. Now, I think it has found this body. Right now, so let's assume for the sake of argument that... And there will be, of course, there will be, there will be regional guarantees for Houthis from Iran, given what has happened between Iran and Saudi Arabia recently.

Yeah, that's a very good point. Okay, so let's assume that the Houthis and the Saudis can come up with not just a renewal of the ceasefire, but a real peace deal to end the war permanently now between Saudi, UAE and which please address the UAE's role here too. But also then there's still a conflict inside Yemen. The former government, whatever exists of it. I don't know what exists of it outside a hotel room in Riyadh, but you could address that. The Houthis and then of course the Southern Transitional Council, I believe is still dominant down in Aden with the support of the UAE. And so that's a whole new set of negotiations. I guess it could be. What do you think? Nasser of the

the chances are that a civil war could continue. The most important thing here is UA. The most important thing for this, for this concern, is UA. UAE now is almost to start talks with Houthis. This is a new thing that is not already announced, but I heard from my sources that they are going to start talks with Houthis in the same way as Saudi Arabia did. Great.

In this case, if they did this, if they started their own talks, if the UAA started their talks with the Houthis, I think they can manage to convince their proxies, STC and others. It's not that, because they are not also, the problem in the South is There is no one leader.

There is no one commander. This is the problem. They have not unified leadership in the South, whether STC or others. So the biggest one is that is the one that is supported by UAE, STC. And if they talk, if the Houthis talk with UA, I think everything will be okay. Why I am saying this, why I am saying the U.A. is interested very well because the oil exporting is stopped now for about five months now. Why? Because Houthi stopped it. So nobody can now, nobody can take oil. Nobody can export oil. Nobody can export oil from Yemen to any way. any place for any purpose. No. So Houthi, now, even the tankers, the internal tankers, are under the control of Houthi today or yesterday, they arrested a tycoon, an oil tycoon, I mean, an oil tycoon, I mean, in transportation and services of oil.

this businessman did something that was not good for Houthis by exporting some oil from Shabwa in the south to Aden which means he is breaking the rules that were imposed by Houthi I want to say here that Houthi is controlling a lot of things including the exporting of oil and gas from inside Yemen and nobody

can do anything now because they threaten and they implemented many strikes to the places by drones to the boats of Hadramoud and Shabwa

and told them don't take our oil don't take our oil and they stop now they want to talk with him of course they can't do anything without talking with those. Yeah.

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jewelers out of San Diego. Go to Jewelrystoresd.com to check out their fine selection and to find out more. Hey, y'all, you should sign up for my substack. It's Scott Horton's show. Stack.com, and if you do that, you'll get the interviews a day before everybody else, but not only that, they'll be free of commercials. How do you like that? Pretty good, huh? Scott Hortonshow.substack.com. Hey, y'all, libertosbella.com is where you get Scott Horton's show and Libertarian Institute,

shirts, sweatshirts, mugs, and stickers and things, including the great top lobstas designs as well. See, that way it says on your shirt, why you're so smart. Libertas Bella. from the same great folks who bring you ammo.com for all your ammunition needs, too. That's Libertasbella.com. Well, you sure do have a good point there that the Houthis are in a very strong position compared to the STC there if they want to start making money again.

But now let me ask you about AQAP, speaking of forces backed by the UAE. As we've discussed over the years, they became an embarrassment after season control of about seven towns on the southern coast there. And so the UAE hired them and renamed AQAP, the Giants Brigade, which I guess integrated them into their militia they had that's bigger than them. But still... This is the only cut now. And they...

By the way, at the end of January, Nassar, there was a drone strike that they say targeted members of AQAP. So it looks like maybe they're switching sides in the war back again. Exactly. This is the only thing that can happen. Unfortunately, what might happen now as a new element in this, in this all equation, is al-Qaeda, it can reimage by supporting from UAE and by supporting from some sympathizers in some political bodies. And, you know, from the enemies of Houthis, let me say. from the internal enemies of Houthis or from U.A or from anyone.

If the UAA couldn't reach a deal with Houthis, they would use Houthi, as they did use them in the beginning of this war, in Havramaut and why not? And this is why we are seeing them now re-emerging. Because it's, you know, in Marib, in Shabwa, in Hadramaut, you know, under the control or, you know, it's almost under the control of UAE or their security camps and their security people who were trained and financed by UA. So the most dangerous thing is this, the account that may come back to the arena

and implement operations here or outside. Yeah, well, you know, as we've discussed on the show before, Back in 2015, America's current Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, was providing the Houthis with intelligence that they were using to target and kill a QAP before he stabbed them in the back and betrayed them and turned around and took Saudi Arabia's side against them in March. And so, you know, eight years ago. So I guess they could just switch right back again and we could have something like Obama's old drone war. in the south of yemen for the indefinite future huh i think the two successful the two successful operations carried out or implemented recently by you by you by us a by us a in marriage which killed the the commander and the bomb maker happened because of

because of the differences between the Baatis and because of the American concerns about these things. But if the UAE did not agree with Houthis and also if there is no solution for all Baatis and ending the war, Altogether, I think it will come back maybe stronger than it was. Well, yeah, I mean, that's the real danger. It's been years and years.

I mean, going back, Nasser, to your coverage in the New York Times back when they were interested in what you had to say when you were covering the last war over there, the drone strikes were just making everything worse. We're just recruiting more and more people into their cause anyway. So the war against them was counterproductive. How counterproductive has the war for them for the past eight years been? I mean, I'm terrified to even ask you what you think the real number of forces loyal to these suicide bomber cooks even are at this point. I think it's, you know, it's as underground and the numbers are there and they are increasing.

in a way or another for many reasons, social, tribal, and economic, and a lot of things. A lot of reasons for this. But the key thing here is they can image or re-image easily if the big people want, if the big people of the big financials are willing. They can make easily overnight. And if there is no funding, if there is no finance, they will remain their underground and without any effectiveness. The problem is that if the big people,

if that many people are willing to use it, it, they can then, it will be there overnight. This is the thing that I have, that I have noticed and I have observed through my journalist career. And now, now, you can, you can use it. When you say money people, does that mean Saudi princelings, or who are you talking about? Yeah, Saudi and, yes, Saudi, Saudi, Saudi, Saudi, whether Saudi government or Saudi, Saudi, or Saudi, Saudi, Saudi, Saudi, or Saudi, Saudi, Saudi, Saudi business. business people. Yes. And the U.S. government or business people. Yes.

But then in other words, when you say the big people, you're saying they can turn this on and off like a light switch. In other words, if the U.S. Treasury Department made themselves clear that they would have to stop. Exactly. Yes. Like a light switch. Yeah. Well, I think that's such an important point, especially when you consider that this group has attacked the United States in the past and not just the coal. I mean, you have to go back to 2000 for that, but there was the printer cartridge plot. I mean, I don't know if you count Charlie Hebdo was the French, but still, you know, an anti-Western attack that was coordinated by them. And I guess there were two different failed airplane attacks. In fact, two different

bomb, you know, cartridge plots. And then plus the underpants bomb. And then plus the underpants bomb. who tried to blow up a plane over Detroit on Christmas Day 2009. It sounds like the light switch was turned on back then. Maybe just so we had somebody to bomb over there. But I am now a little bit optimistic because of the willingness I am feeling, the big willingness, I am feeling from the UAE side. UAE now is very willing or at least seems to be very willing to talk with Houthis to also to know you know what the UAE wants they want only to say what we have in it

because they want to make sure what they have in it that's it and if Houthis Houthi knows what the UAE wants. But whether he will agree or not, this is something not remains unknown, of course. But politically, I think they will manage to reach a deal if they sit down and talk. Let me ask you this. From your point of view, I mean, never mind American interests and keeping al-Qaeda down, but just from the Saudi point of view of, you know, their reaction to the Houthis taking power at the end of 2014, the beginning of 2015,

could they have just, as you said, all they want is their interest protected? They want some security guarantees from the Houthis, the same as the Houthis want security guarantees from them. Could they have avoided this entire war, Nassar, if they had just been willing to deal with the new Houthi government then? Yes, if there was more young prince, prince, if the crown prince wasn't of that, If there was a king But if

Mohammed Salman was not there I think they would have avoided all these things With Houthis or with others Yeah, I agree with that He was just 29 years old The new element is Mohammed bin Salman

Who was very new, very young And very naive, maybe And now He's now 100 person upside down now now he wants he wanted war at the beginning

now 100% he wants diplomacy now he wants diplomacy and the money and soft war the thing that he can do the thing that the money can do without any further problems

now he wants to do the same things that his fathers and grandfather did over the whole history with Yemen and not only with Yemen with the region and maybe the world because he can do a lot of things by his money but to to to fight wars is they they can do and it's a very very very very bad thing to them hey so a year ago it wasn't it the case that the Houthis had gotten a couple of really good strikes on

Saudi oil facilities. I think that was the last straw, right? We have to imagine somebody in a white robe came to the crown prince and said enough of this. The Houthis have figured out how to reach out and touch our oil facilities

anytime they want and you can't stop them and so you have to stop this war and somebody made him fall in line at that point, right? I think this was happened this happened for sure

because he felt the crown prince felt that his big projects like 2030 is threatened by Houthi not by anything else especially after the last

strikes on Gidda yes somebody told him stop enough is enough yes Yeah. Well, thank goodness for that. Peace through strength. You know, what's funny is I still see the Houthis called rebels from time to time here, but I guess the media is going to finally have to get over that, considering they won their war eight years ago. The statement from the White House, the statement from the White House said the government and the Houthi. right and this is the softest

this is the softest statement from the white house that's so funny yeah they drop the term rebels but they still won't call them the government even though they've been the sovereign government in the capital city this whole time when they talked about Iran and Saudi Arabia hey you know what I don't know I'm sure you do know this history the Americans pretended that the government in Taiwan

was the legitimate government in China for like 25 years after they lost the Civil War. So, you know, they'll ban the truth. This is the problem. All right, well, listen, man, I love talking to you. I love hearing you laugh. Inshallah, you know, I want to tell you something good. If the war is over, complete over,

then I'll invite you to Yemen to see everything. and you should come to Yemen for one week or for 10 days, then you'll see everything. Man, I would love to. And you will come back with a book, not only with a report, with a book. Absolutely, I would love to. And honestly, I've daydreamed about that many times. Coming to see you. Thank you very much.

Once the bomb stop going off. All right, so I really hope that we can do that. And I hope that the time comes soon. Let me ask you one last thing here before I let you go, Nasser, which is the state of the humanitarian crisis. You say the airport's been running, you know, flights back and forth to Egypt and Jordan for almost a year now, I guess. And the port of Hodeda is wide open now for trade. Can you see already the effect of the hunger and the famine subsiding? Or is it, has it already begun to help? Be honest, Pramute, tell you something from what I see and hear.

People are more assured now. People are, people risk assured and they are not, they are not concerned as they were now. They are a little bit optimistic. But for the humanitarian thing, of course, it can't be sold overnight, although UN yesterday said in the brief of UN envoy to Yemen, he said that about two million, about two million people are now, or the people who are in need for food are now less by two million, and the people who are threatened and with famine are dropped to zero.

Let's say this is right. Let's say this is right. But still, we have millions and millions of people who are in need because millions of people are without salaries, millions of people can't travel. Millions of people need medical treatments outside. and children, millions of children are malnourished. So the humanitarian problem can't be solved overnight at all.

And nobody can solve it overnight, whatever he or she says about this. But a lot of hope is there, a lot of optimism is there. I can tell you this. There is a lot of things happening, a lot of things changing. People feel that the war is not going to come back. Now, everyone looks like there is no war anymore. You don't say why, you can't say why, but you feel it. Because you see what Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia, that has everything in their hand, wants to end it.

They are just arranging now, how to end it. Right. you can feel it yeah that's great man it's such great news to hear yes yeah best of luck to you and to your people man thank you so much again for your time nasser

we really appreciate you thank you very much thank you thank you very much all right you guys that is the great nasser arbi he runs Yemen alon that's Yemen now is his new site there and reporting as always

from Sanaah Yemen the scott horton show anti-war radio can be heard on kpfk ninety point seven fm in l a psradyo dot com antiwar dot com scot horton dot org and libertarian institute dot org