Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 4/14/23 Erik Sperling: Don’t Underestimate America’s Ability to Ruin the Yemen Peace Talks

Episode Date: April 18, 2023

Erik Sperling of Just Foreign Policy joins the show to talk about what’s going on in Yemen. There have been some very good developments there recently with peace talks, ceasefires and blockades being lifted. Overall, it appears that the Saudis are no longer interested in carrying out regime change in Yemen. That is a major step towards peace, but Sperling warns that there are still parties who want elements of this war to continue in some capacity.  Discussed on the show: “Jake Sullivan Discusses Yemen Peace Talks With Saudi Crown Prince” (Antiwar.com) Erik Sperling is the Executive Director of Just Foreign Policy. Follow him on Twitter @ErikSperling This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott’s interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, y'all, welcome to the Scott Horton Show. I'm the director of the Libertarian Institute, editorial director of anti-war.com, author of the book, Fool's Aaron, Time to End the War in Afghanistan, and The Brand New, Enough Already, Time to End the War on Terrorism. And I've recorded more than 5,500 interviews since 2004. almost all on foreign policy and all available for you at scothorton dot for you can sign up the podcast feed there and the full interview archive is also available at youtube.com slash scott horton's show hey guys on the line i've got eric spurling from just foreign policy how are you doing eric well pretty good uh hopeful with everything going on in yemen yeah and i'll have you people know that rick sterling and eric spurling are two totally different dudes. Now,

although you both write good stuff. Yemen. It's the biggest deal in the world and we finally have some real good news, huh? Tell me good news. Well, it's certainly the most hopeful moment in the past eight years from

perspective of many, I'd say, anti-war activists, at least in the U.S. and also for many people in Yemen, you know, that the Saudis may finally be ending their military intervention. and the related blockade on Yemen's air and sea ports. Great. And so, you know, I talked with my buddy Nasser Arabi, who's a reporter from Sanah,

who I've been interviewing really since the war started. And this is, I guess, what, two, three weeks ago now. And he was just having a great time. He was just happy to tell me, yeah, it's over. And it's, you know, the Houthis are talking directly with the Saudis. The Saudis are prepared to officially recognize and accept the Houthi regime and so peace is breaking out all over there's still some loose ends to be tied up such as the UAE's relationship with al-Qaeda and with the southern socialist separatists and all of that but it looks like the major motive of regime change has been canceled so that really is kaput huh Well, that's certainly the hope. I mean, I think the indications are that that would be the case, but there certainly are many groups, including some indications that folks in, you know, senior folks in the U.S. administration, you know, are not thrilled with this deal.

You know, I think U.S. policy had basically sought to use the Saudi war and blockade as leverage in talks that would weaken Houthi control the country and been doing so in their view weaken Iranian influence. Um, but the Saudis appear to be, um, you know, essentially, you know, open to giving in to most of the concessions that the Houthis wanted. Um, and, you know, I think there are still forces that are going to be urging them to say, you know, don't give in just yet. Um, you know, you know, use your leverage to get to make some more gains for, you know, some of the allies of, of the U.S. in the West in Yemen. Um, there's a whole series of, of NGOs. that the West is funded in Yemen, that they certainly want to be part of the agreement. And as of now, those kind of Western-backed groups are kind of on the outside of these talks. And it's really become talks directly between Riyadh and Sana' but, of course, you know, as your listeners know, this has been the major focus of activists here, which is ending the U.S.-backed Saudi-led war on Yemen. You know, I think both libertarians and people on the left can appreciate that we want Yemen to be able to chart its own course free of foreign intervention. You know, I always say, you know, these folks are from the country, their grandparents are from the country, they speak the language.

They're going to be the best ones to chart their own path. Of course, that's not the prevailing view in the U.S. power centers where, you know, despite all the evidence, somehow, you know, we continue to have a better sense of what. what should happen. And, you know, we continue to think, you know, U.S. policymakers continue to act like they, they can best chart the course for these faraway countries that we know so little about. So that's sort of the split right now is, you know, whether, you know, whether the foreign intervention component will come to an end, you know, and the humanities will figure it out, or whether, you know, these talks can be, can be leveraged, you know, to continue kind of that, that Western influence in Yemen.

And I think that's kind of a big open question. But it's looking pretty good. Certainly the most hopeful we've been in the eight years I've been working on Yemen. And so there's a lot of hope at this moment. Yeah. I can see the worry, though, when the headline reads, Jake Sullivan discusses Yemen peace talks with Saudi Crown Prince. Just when they were going so well, the Americans show up.

So I guess we'll see. Well, it got even worse than that, because we We saw that Brett McGirk, who's known as one of the most hardcore kind of Iran Hawks and, you know, just one of the most hawkish individuals is a holdover from Trump administration and he is in the region as of a few hours ago with other U.S. officials. So they are doing a full court press. There's Lender King, the special envoy who's been criticized by many in the anti-war movement in the, you know, in the U.S.

Well, just to be clear, what do you mean by full court press? They're there to stop this from happening? That's certainly not going to be their public messaging. Their public messaging will be we want to support the talks. But in their messaging, you're going to see something very commonly referred to as, you know, an inclusive or comprehensive peace deal. And what that means is, you know, because there's so many forces inside Yemen that were propped up by the Saudi war, if the Saudis get out without securing the interest of

of those groups, those groups will have very little leverage in talks domestically. And so there's a fear of these U.S. officials, you know, in their mind, they'd say, well, we don't want the Saudis to abandon all of these factions that they've propped up without securing their interests in talks. The risk there, of course, is the same risk that's led to the eight-year war, which is that the Houthis might not be able to, might not be willing to agree to those terms to give these kind of foreign-backed forces inside Yemen a significant role in the new government. And so that may ultimately lead to the same thing

that's led the war to drag on, which is just the lack of agreement. As of now, the Saudis very clearly appear to be leaning in what we think is the best direction, which is just end the foreign war on Yemen, let Yemenis figure it out, you know, according to the balance of power that exists in the country without foreign intervention.

But, you know, that's sort of the split that's happening in sort of the Washington, you know, between the anti-war folks in Washington and you've been kind of supportive of those, of kind of the coalition of groups there and kind of the more powerful influential administration folks and, you know, quote-unquote Yemen policy experts that they're close to. Yep. we've seen Biden ruin the end of a war before, so I guess it wouldn't be too big of a surprise. All right, so at least give me some good news about what's happening at the port of Hodeda as, say, compared to before. Eric, could you do that?

Yeah, well, that's something we don't have Hodata port news just yet. The Saudis are talking about and have indicated that they would be part of the deal would be to lift all of these restrictions that have essentially led to major cost of food, just general cost increases for Yemenis. So in Yemen, it's actually not a shortage of food. It's the cost. And the Saudi blockade is a major driver of that. What they have done is they lifted restrictions on the southern port. So a lot of us, you didn't even realize the extent to which the Saudis were blockading the southern port, which is controlled by the Saudi-U.S.-Saudi-aligned forces. But this blockade was so cruel that they were even had a pretty strict blockade on their own allies port in the south of Yemen as a way to just ensure that

you know, no certain goods could not get to the Houthi-controlled north. So those were lifted, and that is a step forward. But we have not seen progress just yet. There's a lot of of indications that, you know, they're planning on a full removal of the blockade, but we have not seen that deal announced just just yet. And so there's a lot of optimism because, you know, the Saudis, you know, it just seems like they are in the mood to transition out of this militaristic approach in light of the China Broker deal. They're going to be looking to try to engage diplomatically and also economically in the region in a way that they're. They haven't been able to as much due to the proxy war between Saudi and Iran.

So, but that said, we still have not quite seen it, but it is a very hopeful moment. And I think, you know, we're, you know, cautiously, but extremely optimistic, I would say. Okay. So where do we stand as far as the activist movement here in the United States trying to end this thing? War powers resolution still? Or we've got to have a better idea than that now? Yeah. So, you know, basically there's going to be two things.

that will come out of these talks. Either what we hope will happen, which is that the Saudis will essentially make a deal that lifts the blockade, ends, you know, guarantees an end to airstrikes and exits Yemen. And in exchange for that, the Houthis will presumably agree to not do anything to harm Saudi Arabia's interests, or Saudi territory in particular. But, you know, and so that was the end result that we hope to achieve with the war powers resolution, which is an end to the Saudi intervention. So essentially, the Saudis will be doing what we sought to achieve with the war powers resolution. So in that instance, it may not be as critical to proceed with that. But if the talks do somehow break down, then we're very likely to see a resumption of

the full-on war between the Sana'a de facto government of the Houthis and Sondi's. Saudi Arabia. And if that were the case, then we would be very, very focused once again on the War Powers Resolution. So so much of it is going to hinge on what comes out of these talks. And I think every Yemen watcher or activist is kind of glued to their screens right now for every piece of news we can get out of these private talks. Yeah. Well, look, I mean, China working out this new peace agreement and this whole new, I hope, unless America can still screw it up, this new modus vivendi between Saudi and Iran sure should help.

I mean, it seems to maybe be the backbone of this whole process. What do you think of that? Yeah, and it's actually interesting for libertarians, too, because it kind of brings us back to, you know, this idea that, you know, economic, you know, relationships and, you know, doing business is a smarter way of doing things than, you know, doing. war and conflict and proxy war. And I think that's, that is the shift that China, you know, for as authoritarian as they are, you know, that is their general approach is, you know, minimize differences, a focus on economic and other cooperation, which will, you know, bring people's quality of life up and reduce tension. So, you know, I think it's if this, this certainly, the current progress in Yemen is certainly a result of kind of the general,

approach that China is pushing in the region, which is that cooperative, more cooperative and business-focused approach. And so, yeah, I think, you know, the U.S., when we see they have many, many officials in the region right now. Like, as we speak, it's just all dropping as of a few hours ago. And I think they're very concerned about some of these countries, which, you know, we used to think of as client states of the United States. Yeah, they were completely dependent on the U.S. for their security and even much of their economic relations, economic activity. And now that's no longer the case. And so, you know, the U.S. has sent everyone they can, as far as I can tell, to the region

to see if they can shore up those relationships and keep these folks in kind of in the U.S. orbit. And it's just a really fascinating historical moment on many levels. Well, folks, sad to say, they lied us into war. All of them. World War I, World War II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq War I, Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq War II, Libya, Syria, Yemen, all of them. But now you can get the e-book, All the War Lies, by me, for free. Just sign up the email list at the bottom of the page at Scott Horton.org or go to Scotthorton.org slash subscribe. Get all the war lies by me for free. And then you'll never have to believe them again. Hey, y'all, Scott here, let me tell you about Roberts & Roberts Brokerage, Inc.

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That's 800-874-9760, or check them out at r-rbi.co. That's r-rbi.co. You'll be glad you did. Yeah. Well, in a way, thank goodness, Joe Biden is there and not someone more capable of doing the same job, you know? Yeah, I think that the downside. is, you know, there was a recent piece out in the Washington Post. I mean, and it showed that, you know, Biden for his, you know, his terrible role in being the kind of the lead Senate Democrat,

in a sense, pushing the Iraq war, you know, he did have periods over recent decades where he was, you know, not, he was kind of on the more restraint-oriented side, including kind of pushing back against the Afghanistan surge, urging against the Libya war. and a few other instances. And so in a sense, it's, you know, in the Washington Post article kind of flagged that even in Ukraine, he's been the one most likely to say that the nuclear risk is very severe. Part of that probably helped by that he was a lucid. I think he might have been an adult during the Cuban missile crisis, so that helps. But, you know, so in a sense, it's good.

It's not someone more hawkish and capable, but on the other side, when the president is kind of out of it, it gives a lot of power to these unelected bureaucrats who have a ton of ability to kind of shape outcomes and, you know, and limited, if he has, President Biden has limited energy to get deep into the weeds on these issues, then that just means more power for unelected bureaucrats. So it is still a problem. And we'll have to see kind of what that means is Brett McGurk is in the region and the Yemen envoy Tim Lenderking's in the region. And, you know, they're really going to have a lot of ability to shape this. And, you know, we'll have to see what that means. But, you know, it hasn't been good until up until now. I mean, we have Lender King was appointed early in the Biden administration over two years ago. And it was very limited indications that until now, until the sudden kind of Chinese broker deal,

there were very limited indications that they were going to find a way to resolve and end the Yemen war. and so but so yeah i would say you know in the sense it's great it's not a more capable hawkish president but you know and it it tells you a lot about our country you know Biden you know rock war advocate at the time is is maybe one of the least pro-war people in his administration which is troubling yeah well and he sure gives them plenty of free reign it looks like to me but i see what you mean there. It could be worse. And you look at this administration, it's like, you know, what diplomatic deals have they managed to secure? I mean, they blew the Iran deal, even though Iran was adhering to it.

Well, it was their deal. I mean, they were the ones who helped to do it. I mean, it was John Kerry more than them, but still they were in on it. Yes, you don't have a deal there. You know, we don't see much of a push for diplomacy in Ukraine. You know, you don't see, you don't see Yemen was pretty much stagnant until the sudden breakthrough that, you know, I think the evidence is China facilitated that. And, you know, so you really have, you know, you look at, you know, North Korea, there's nothing there. I mean, there's major warnings coming out about escalation there. I can't even keep all of the conflicts, you know, the potential threats and risks in my head at one time. There's just so many. So, you know, we don't even have a return to, say, Obama policy

on Cuba, you know, or even Obama policy on Venezuela. It's all still mostly Trump policy with regards to those. So it's just really amazing how few, how poorly this team has done as far as the Biden team has done as far as diplomatic achievements that reduce tension or reduce human suffering abroad. And they went back to, stunning. Yeah, they went back to Obama's policy on North Korea where they could have built on the progress that Trump was making. And instead they went back to the permanent cold shoulder and increased tensions there. More military exercises and all that. Yeah. I mean, so it's just, you know, this administration, you hope that someone could get through to, you know, to the Biden and say, is this really what you want your legacy to be?

Do you really want your legacy to be, you know, one where tensions escalated and in almost every, you know, either were maintained or escalated in many, almost every area. And, you know, I don't think that's what his intent was. I mean, I think he did, again, he did have growing skepticism, you know, over the recent decade or two about things like Libya, things like Syria. And yet, you know, I think it is a lot of the, you know, there are a lot of these unelected bureaucrats that have their own agenda. And it's certainly not an agenda that really any normal person, any normal American can understand or see as valuable. And so, yeah, you have, of course, major escalation, you know, we're still continuing to escalate with

China as well. So you just have across-the-board escalation and, you know, you hope it is at least a huge relief to see that there's another actor in the world that is promoting peace, you know, for as repressive as China is and for their many flaws, at least their impact as of now seems to be positive in the international arena. And so we're very lucky in that sense for that, because otherwise if it was a totally unipolar world and this was all we had it could be in a very dangerous place yeah that's the most disgraceful damn thing in the world but it is what it is and i'll take it man this has been absolutely nasty war every bit as bad as a wreck or two and lord knows it'll never be any accountability for it but at least it's coming to an end here

looks like so i agree with you though it it remains to be seen whether the americans can find a way to screw this up so um yeah so everyone should pay. I know your, you know, your base, your audience and followers have been huge in terms of the impact. I think everyone can see it online. That's this kind of libertarian left coalition, you know, but the part that you bring and, you know, it's been huge in terms of creating pressure. And so, you know, I know a lot of those folks are very sharp and we'll be following this and we'll be ready to try to see this war to an end. You know, it's not a very big. You know, it's not a Every day we end a war in America.

So, you know, it feels, it would feel really good if we could say, you know, this U.S. Saudi war on Yemen is finally over after eight years. In eight years, that's pretty good. The Afghanistan took us 20, you know, eight-year war. If we can get it done in eight, that would be pretty great. Well, we're probably just switching sides again. There's going to be more Al-Qaeda guys than ever to kill there. But it still would be way better than this attempted regime change, which is just amounted to a general. inclicting famine on these people and just this i'm not promoting the terror war but i'm just saying

the war for terrorism has been way worse than what proceeded um anyway so listen um not that again not that i'm in favor of that but so on ending the um the uh the current war making sure that to you know that we can do whatever we can to provide pressure what do people do we call the white how Switchboard or we look up just foreign policy, you've got some kind of Yemen campaign that's still going on that people can get involved because it's not over yet. We don't want to get too satisfied here. And so let's end with what kind of activism you're doing and other people can get involved in here and how they can get involved. Yeah, well, I think definitely continue to follow your Twitter page. You're always on top of it. Also, you know, we're at just, you know,

handle is just FP for just foreign policy. And we'll keep updates. You know, with the talks ongoing, we're sort of in a wait and C mode. You know, so I think, you know, but the basic focus is, you know, attention on the White House to make sure that, you know, they don't get in the way of a deal, urge them to support a Saudi Yemen deal. And but, you know, so I think if this deal does happen, you know, I think we'll be pushing for the U.S. to, essentially support reconstruction efforts in line with, you know, to try to make sure Yemen can actually recover from this horrific war. You know, their ports have been destroyed. They don't even have capacity to import everything that they're going to, that they need to be importing,

their infrastructure is destroyed. So that, you know, if the war does end and we finally win that, then we'll move on to accountability, reconstruction and accountability. And I do think another focus will have to be, you know, what was, you know, reviewing the U.S. role in this, in this horrific conflict. Because if you remember, this all began, you know, Tony Blinken was in Riyadh, in April 2015, announcing accelerated U.S. support and targeting assistance for the Saudis. And, you know, so I think, you know, that will be, the focus will turn to kind of reconstruction and accountability for U.S. officials that were involved. You know, and if the war doesn't end, which is possible, I'd hate to say it, but, you know, then we'll be right back at it, you know, working to cut unauthorized U.S. support for this Saudi war.

So I think everyone should just stay tuned. Obviously, stay glued to your page and check us out on Twitter at just FP. And we'll, you know, we'll just be updating as we all learn what comes out of these talks. Okay, awesome. Well, thanks very much for your time, Eric. Really appreciate it. Yeah, thank you. Talk.

All right, you guys, that is Eric Sperling from Just Foreign Policy. Steady added on the Yemen issue for you there. The Scott Horton show, Anti-War Radio, can be heard on KPFK, 90.7 FM in L.A. APSRadio.com, anti-war.com, Scotthorton.org, and Libertarian Institute.org.