Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 4/15/22 Nasser Arrabyee on the Ceasefire in Yemen

Episode Date: April 16, 2022

On this week’s Antiwar Radio show, Scott talks with Nasser Arrabyee about the ongoing two-month Ramadan ceasefire in Yemen. Scott begins with a quick recap of how the war broke out. He then gets into his discussion with Arrabyee. Arrabyee, who lives in Sana’a, gives an on-the-ground account of the ceasefire so-far, and explains why it’s the best development since the war began seven years ago. Although these developments are great news for those who want peace, Yemen remains a very divided country. Scott and Arrabyee examine the political situations that will need to be addressed whenever the war truly comes to an end.  Discussed on the show: “In Strategic Shift, U.S. Draws Closer to Yemeni Rebels” (Wall Street Journal)  Nasser Arrabyee is a Yemeni journalist based in Sana’a, Yemen. He is the owner and director of yemen-now.com. You can follow him on Twitter @narrabyee. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: The War State and Why The Vietnam War?, by Mike Swanson; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott; EasyShip; Free Range Feeder; Thc Hemp Spot; Green Mill Supercritical; Bug-A-Salt and Listen and Think Audio. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjYu5tZiG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For Pacifica Radio, April 17th, 2022, I'm Scott Horton. This is Anti-War Radio. All right, y'all, welcome the show. It is Anti-War Radio. I'm your host, Scott Horton. I'm the editorial director of Anti-War.com. and author of the book, Enough Already. Time to end the war on terrorism. You can find my full interview archive, more than 5,600, almost 700 of them now.

Going back to 2003, 19 years ago, this month actually, at Scott Horton.org, and you can also find the entire archive at YouTube.com slash Scott Horton's show. All right, guys, now this interview actually runs a little bit short, but I've decided to go ahead and run it anyway because it's such an important one. It's Nasser Arabi, a journalist from Sinai, Yemen.

The New York Times used to run him actually back in the days of the war against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, but they've been not so interested in what he's had to say for the last seven years. And so I just want to give this interview an intro to sum up the war that is so poorly covered in American media.

It started with Obama's drone war in 2009 against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula there, which was only counterproductive and helped grow them more and more powerful, of course. At the same time, Obama was bribing the government and the dictator Abdullah Saleh in Sanah, the capital city there, with weapons and money to let him wage that drone war. Sala was then taking the weapons and money and also was playing a double game and a line with Al-Qa. Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood to use them in a war against his enemies, the Houthis, in the north of the country. And, in fact, he was arming the Houthis against his own army and his al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood allies as well in a triple game there. But then the Arab Spring came, and everybody wanted rid of this guy.

This is 2011. And after an assassination attempt, when he was in the hospital in Saudi, The Saudis and Hillary Clinton, the secretary of state, arranged essentially a coup. And instead of letting the Yemeni people figure out how to proceed, they installed, they forced him out and installed his vice president in power in a bogus election with one man on the ballot. You can even see it at NPR News. They admitted it there. And he stayed in power and refused to hold new elections. And like his predecessor, launched a war against the Houthis.

not only did it backfire against him, but it turns out the previous dictator, Sala, had gone away mad and taken about two-thirds of the army with him. And so he had allied with his old enemies, the Houthis, and they now then, at the end of 2014, marched on the capital of Sana'a and conquered it. Now, at that time, our current Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, was the commander of Central Command, and he was passing intelligence to the Houthis to use to kill al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. And that was reported in the Wall Street Journal in January 2015. Just two months later, he stabbed the Houthis in the back and took al-Qaeda's side against them. That is, the Saudi-U-A-E al-Qaeda coalition against the Houthis back this whole time through the last two years of Obama, four years of Trump,

and now into more than a year of Joe Biden have backed the Saudis in the UAE and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in their war against the Houthis. Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed. It's the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. But now this interview is actually about the good news. It looks like the war just might be coming to an end.

All right, you guys, on the line. Again, I've got Nasser Araby, our friend, the journalist from Sena Yemen. Used to write to the New York Times back before America switched sides of the war over there. Welcome back to the show, Nasser. How are you doing?

Thank you very much. I'm very happy. Thank you. Thank you for having you. Great to have you on again. And, you know, we've been talking for seven years, I think from the very beginning of the war, maybe right before, I think right after the war broke out was when we first started talking. And from this side, anyway,

the news is sounding pretty good like we have a ceasefire? What does it look like from your point of view? Well, ceasefire looks like, let me say, completely different from the previous ones because it's comprehensive. It's agreed upon by all parties, by Houthi, by Saudi Arabia, by Emirates,

by all the groups here, by the Saudi back government, everyone. And it's the ceasefire, it's the attack, and Saudi Arabia. The blockade also is lifted, and the roads inside Yemen that were also blocked are open or they are doing to open them. So what I can say now is it's completely different from the previous ones in terms of the time, the duration, it's two months, and in terms of the bodies involved in this through. Nassar, did I just hear you right? Did you just say that

the blockade is lifted? Yes, it is the ships have been allowed in, about three and there are now about 20 who are now, which are also loud in, allowed in, and the fuel, the food, the commercial things. As Sanayr bought was supposed to be open this week, but it's for technical things not yet open. So it should, it must be open also. And this is what the UN invoice said yesterday, who was here in Sana'a.

And so these are the new things. Sana Airboat, Hudeda boats, and almost everything that Houthi wanted to do, wanted to have, like the blockade, I mean, the sea boats and the airboats and they are okay. Seabots, as I told you, are open now, but the airboats of Sana'a is not yet because of technical things, as they said, because they need to do some things, I don't know, for the Yemeni airline and the other things. This is why I told you it's auspicious, it's new, it's heralding this time around. So we hope that this, as I told you, this will lead to permanent and lasting, a peaceful solution and ending of the war.

And now that's the real point. When you say that this one just, it's so much more comprehensive than any of the previous ceasefires that have been arranged and I guess falling apart very quickly here. You really think this is the first big step toward peace? It is the biggest, it is the biggest, it is the major since the war started. It's very new, as I told you, very new and completely different for a lot of reasons, of course, including Saudi Arabia, Houthi, and Emirates and other groups. And now, one of the major pieces of news that seemed to also indicate that a change, was being made here was the report that Mansour Hadi, I guess hiding safe in his hotel room

in Riyadh, has officially renounced his claim to the presidency, which was the premise of the whole war, was to put him back in power, right? I mentioned this as a big thing also, why it is different. Because Haddy now is no there. Has he now is gone. His vice president is gone. Haddy was, you know, divisive. And his vice- Vice President was divisive. For example, Hadi was disliked by the separatists and by Emirates. Vice President was not liked also by whom, by separatists and by Houthi, because he fought wars against the separatists in the South in 1994 and also against the Houthis in 2004. So these two are gone now, and this means that it's different. It's completely different.

Maybe it may lead to a permanent solution and debase in Yemen. Okay. Now, what about air strikes in the capital city of Sana'a there? No, no air strikes. No air strikes at all, no strikes at all. No violations to the ceasefire at all, except with some small things. but small things that were not announced as big or as breaking the ceasefire or something like this, no, at all.

I should also mention something that is very important that also all these things came after the huge fire that was in Aramco in Jutta. That is because of the drones and the missiles that hit the Aramco that was on fire for 24 hours. It's a big, big things that was seen by everyone in the world. And this is something that made Saudi Arabia, I think, think twice how to end this war seriously. I was going to ask you, what was it that really changed on the ground there?

Where do you mean? Yeah, in other words, what changed in the minds of the Saudi princelings that they decided to go ahead? Yes, exactly. Yes, yes, yes. And now, so what about the, can you tell me sort of the battlefields, around Marib because I believe that, you know, and I'm sorry because it's been a little while since we talked, but I think since we've talked, the Houthis had to withdraw from Marib, right? Yes, not to withdraw, but he stopped from it. He's where he was. Now, Houthi is where he was

in Marib. He's surrounding the city. They are surrounding the city, but they were not, they were not allowed to go in. But now, the only concern now, the only concern now, the only concern, my concern, everyone's concern, and the UN-in-in-in-in-voy concern, is this, is married, because Houthi forces now are still closing in on the city until today. But not as a violation, but as, like, reading, but it may, it may end any time. at any moment because if Houthi, for example, if Houthi stormed, took control over the city, it would be considered as a big violation for this is fire.

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So now, Nassar, as you've described to me over the years here, as we've talked about, politically speaking, this is a very divided country where you have the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis, you have the socialists who seem to be dominant around Aidan, you have the Houthis who are from the north, who are now camping out in the capital, in the middle of the country. And now when they originally ceased the capital city, and they did seize it in alliance with the old dictator, Sala, back at the end of 2014 there, they did start to try to negotiate with all these different factions, right? Rather than just conquer the whole country and lord it over everyone, I wonder if you think that there's a possibility that they really could sit down and, you know, hash things out among the different factions inside Yemen and come. to some kind of coalition, government, rather than just some sort of Houthi dictatorship that everyone else would try to resist, and that kind of thing. Yes. Let me just tell you one more thing. That is that the Hadi now, after Hadi is gone, they formed a presidential council

of eight persons, okay? They already have done that, you're saying. Yeah, it's already done that. Now, the Houthi, when you say they, that's the Houthi. No, Houthi is not there. No, Houthi is not there. Oh, you're talking about the Saudis? Yes, the Saudi-backed government.

Okay. So what is replacing Hadi now is a presidential council. It's made of eight persons, okay? These eight persons are, you know, four by four, four backed by Saudis and four by Emirates, right? not only this, not only Emirates and Saudi Arabia, it's also the eight persons representing or are representing different groups, enemy groups, enemy groups inside Yemen, which means if they can, if they can agree, if they would agree, it would be a good thing for them to talk with Houthi, but it's completely different for them.

For example, the separatists is under this council. The South, the South separatists are under this presidential council. And Houthi, sorry, and Islaah, Islaah and separatists are under this council. Salafis, Salafis, who are caida. So it's, they are very, it's very, very, very, very. fractious it's very fractious it's very difficult to lead so and now if you bought this in one group and then you talk about houthi houthi is one is is the other or the the the biggest obstacle after that if they agree because their strategic mission their strategic task is to to make

to make dialogue with houthi to sit down with houthi But would they agree, would they be okay to, would they be friends, would they be good? This is something still or remains to be seen because it's not easy for them to agree. We know they are enemies. They were in wars. You see? So, it's, Houthi now is still waiting because he's not in that council. He's not in that council.

You see, this is a difficult thing. Yeah. So, although I guess it sounds like maybe what you're saying is that the Saudis and the UAE, by bringing these groups together, Islam and the Southern Socialists and this kind of, if they can sort of form a united front there, then that's fewer people for the Houthis to then negotiate with, right? That kind of thing. They would force him. And Houthi may be forced if they... if they are okay, but now the observers are still waiting how they would be, how they would be friends overnight. We know that there are a lot of problems. And Houthi are waiting, Houthi is waiting now. Houthi is waiting for them.

If they are okay, then I would sit with them, no problem to me. I would sit with them and I would put my conditions and so and so, okay. But I think now there are also objective things. that would force Houthi and bring all together because there is a big, big will from Saudi Arabia, and because of this will, because of this political well and good will of Saudi Arabia or from Saudi Arabia side, I think there will be a solution, a peaceful solution, or separation, I mean, a secession, of the, I mean, making, Yemen becomes two, at least, south and the north. And that's how it was for many years back in the days of the Soviet Union when the communist

dominated the South, isn't that right? Sorry, sorry, can you start again? Isn't it right that it was like that under the days of the Soviet Union up until the end of the Soviet Union and the southern part of Yemen was aligned with the USSR then, right? Yes, yes, of course, of course. And maybe until now, they, now the separatists, but they support Putin and they, of course, they want to, they expect something like this. They expect kind of support from the, from Putin now. All right.

Now, so what about the future of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula here? And they have been strengthened so much in the last seven years. And as you have documented on the show, have been integrated into the UAE's militia on the ground there. What's their future, do you think? They're thriving now because Vice President, Vice President, Ali Maheson, General Ali Maheson, who's gone now with Hadi, is supporting, or has, at least has friends and supporters from the Salafis who are also linked to or linked. with al-Qaeda and ISIS, we can notice also, we can hear and we can see many things happening now in the South because of, because of Ali-Mhoussin or the general Al-Ali-Mhsson being gone. So we think, or the observers also notice that Al-Qaeda and ISIS will be active and

will be stronger to make a kind of balance between the between south and north and and to also to to to pressure houthis because uh kaida is the enemy of al-qaeda is hooty and they want to to pressure houthi by using al-Qaeda unfortunately and this is what is expected to be happening in the future. Now, even though the UAE has a relationship with the Aden socialist separatists and also with AQ, they must be enemies of each other, right? UA, the proxy of UA is Salafis, the giant, the so-called the giant brigades. These giants, brigades are Salafis, are Qaeda and ISIS sympathizers, at least. Let me say sympathizers. And these are being baited by UA. The salaries are coming from UA, the salaries of all these

forces. And these forces are, in a way or another, they have something to do with al-Qaeda and ISIS. do whatever they want. They can pressure whoever they want at any time, just by gesture from UAE. And now, but the UAE has their relationship with the aid and separatists, too, right? Yes, aid and separatists. Aid and separatists are made by UAE, of course.

And they are the proxy. They are the proxy of the UAE also. So that's what I'm kind of getting too is you have three three brooksies let me tell you okay brooksies who are enemies to each other the separatist and the the separatist and the salih supporters the saloher and his his people and his forces and the salafis the giant the giant what was the group you mentioned in the middle there nasser uh salih supporters salih forces the the the formal one. I guess, yeah. So what I'm getting to is I'm interested in what's going to happen

if the war ends and the UAE leaves and then you have this balance of power to be settled between the separatists and the al-Qaeda guys, I guess, are the big worry. And also from an American point of view, you know, I'm worried that we're going to have the war on a cue is going to start again and going to last forever. Exactly. It is. The vice, the chairman of the council now has nothing to do. He has no sway. He has no influence on the groups, on the militias, on the ground.

He is just a man. He's a man. He can't do anything. He can't order anyone. Okay? So the people, the separatists, is not under him. The separatist, the separatists,

the so-called city, the Southern transitional council. city and the giants, the Salafis, and the Salah forces. So in addition to the Hadi, the Hadi forces, which are Islaj. So no one is under him, no force is under him, no military force is under this chairman of the presidential council. So this is why it's very fragile, and it could be explode at any time. Yeah.

Man. Now, so back to the so-called, you know, ceasefire here between the Houthis and the Saudis. You said kind of at the beginning here that all sides had agreed to it, signed on to it, but all sides is a lot of sides. So can you be a little bit more specific there about it was the U.N. announced it. Were they the ones who negotiated the deal? Was the U.S. involved? And what all Yemeni factions were involved in signing on to the ceasefire? I told you, yes I told you they all agreed but they all

disagreed I could say I can say this And who do you mean by all On the Okay Okay Houthi Saudi Arabia

UA and their brooksies They're different brooksies Okay The separatists The Islaah The separatists, the Islaah And the military The Giants

The Giants Brigade When we say Giants Brigade here, it is the Salafis. Salafis, people or militias linked with Al-Qaeda and ISIS. So you can just see these things. Different, different things, different groups, enemies, fractious, very fractious. Great. And they did, all of them signed on to the thing.

And was it the UN that hosted the thing? Yes. You can ask me, you can ask me within why they agreed. They agreed, because every. Everyone thinks now that it would be in his interest. It would be in his interest, maybe. Maybe Houthi is this, maybe. And Houthi is bidding on, they disagree.

They are enemies to each other. But if they are okay, then I would sit with them. No problem. I would sit and I would tell them what I want from them. Houthi would go to sit also to talk about the presidential council, if the meeting was in Uman or in Qatar or not in Saudi Arabia. Houthi didn't refuse the meeting that was called for by the Gulf states. But he said not in Saudi Arabia, not in Riyadh.

Houthi said not in Riyadh, I would come, but not in Riyadh. So it's wait and see now, it's wait and see from Houthi side. it's and also from the other side yeah well listen I mean this is the best interview we've ever done I know that I mean this is so much good news yes we can do it more we can we can do it we can do it anytime

I thank you very much for your interest but the time this time is not that suitable because as I told you it was a little bit critical because I when I told you six okay sex is I was not thinking of Ramadan because now it's completely different but it's okay now right right oh I'm so sorry yeah I don't

please don't let me get in the way of that just thank you so much for your time happy Ramadan to you my friend and great to talk to you again I hope we can do this again and good luck to you and all of your we can do it we can do it all right take care thank you very much thank you very much all right you guys that is Nassar Arbi

he's from Yemen Elan, that's Yemen now, yemen-now.com, reporting out of Sinai Yemen. All right, Sean, that has been anti-war radio for this morning. I'm your host, Scott Horton. Thanks very much for listening. Find my full interview archive at Scott Horton.org and at YouTube.com slash Scott Horton's show. And I'm here every Sunday morning from 8.30 to 9 on KPFK, 90.7 FM in L.A. See you next week.

Thank you.