Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 6/19/26 Larry Johnson on Trump’s Effort to End the Iran War
Episode Date: June 21, 2026Scott interviews Larry Johnson about the ongoing, frequently broken yet somehow still holding ceasefire between the US and Iran, the Trump administration’s effort to find some way out of the war the...y started and the Israeli’s muddled attempt to sabotage the process. Discussed on the show: “Persian Gulf Oil Shipping Crisis Deepens as Barnacle Fouling Hits Idled Supertanker Hulls” (Sonar21) Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and a former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. Follow his analysis at Sonar21. Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott's work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott's other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott's books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/43D82oY (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/4eMQblu Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/4a5fKvx Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tax Attorney Matt Sercely https://agoristtaxadvice.com; Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com; Expat Money https://expatmoney.com/; and Crowdhealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/ (use promocode Horton) Sign up for the Scott Horton Academy of Foreign Policy and Freedom at scotthortonacademy.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Ladies and gentlemen of the press have been less than honest.
Reporting to the American people, what's going on in this country?
Because the babies are making this.
We're dealing with Hitler Revisited.
This is the Scott Horton Show.
Libertarian foreign policy, mostly.
When the president visit, that means that it is not illegal.
We're going to take out seven countries in five years.
They don't know what the fuck they're doing.
Negotiate now.
End this war.
And now, here's your host,
Scott Porton.
All right, y'all.
Introducing Larry Johnson again on the show.
He's former CIA, but I like him.
Yeah, don't hold that against me.
Nah, well, some of you retirees are okay, guys.
Sonar 21, that's his website, sonar21.com,
and you should subscribe to his email list so you get one in your email every morning,
telling you what the hell is the dang deal, and it's very helpful stuff.
U.S. and Iran will not meet in Switzerland,
Israel succeeded in derailing the negotiation already.
Or did they?
I don't even know what's the latest news today.
Is there any latest news today about developments here
and hopefully some good news about maybe we'll have the signing ceremony
next week instead or anything like that?
What do you know?
Yeah, that's like that line from the Charles Dickens to Christmas Carol
where Scrooge looks at the ghost Marley and says,
Marley, speak comfort to me.
Marley responds, I have none to give.
Am you, Johnson.
Well, yeah, look, the Israel escalated its attacks in southern Lebanon.
And the very first paragraph of the memorandum of understanding that Donald Trump signed
and President Vosseschian of Iran side stipulates that the United States and Iran will ensure
the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.
Remarkable.
That was one of Iran's red lines, and Trump conceded it.
And so that means no Israelis in southern Lebanon
because that constitutes a violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Israel wasn't going to say, well, we're not going to abide by that.
So they stepped up their attacks in southern Lebanon.
Hesbalah has retaliated, killed four Israelis yesterday,
including a very senior commander, tank commander, lieutenant colonel.
And so about three hours ago, the really raging battles.
And then we get the news throughout Jazeera about an hour ago
that the Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a four-clock,
PM ceasefire. Now, that is coming because of pressure the United States is putting on Israel.
The Pakistanis working closely with the government of Iran and also backed up by China.
They have communicated, let's call it, some very specific threats to Donald Trump of action that will be taken.
that would be, to put it politely, very detrimental to Israel
and detrimental to U.S. interests in the region.
So they're serious about it.
The talks or the meeting that was supposed to take place in Geneva today,
a place called Bergenstock, it was supposed to really kick off.
And initially it was assigned that was where they were going to sign the memorandum,
but they decided they advanced that with the,
signatures that took place on Wednesday.
So this was to be really the kickoff of this 60-day period of negotiations
where they're supposed to try to sort out Iran's nuclear program.
But the good news is they're still talking.
They're behind the scenes.
The bad news is it's not just the diehard Zionists in the Republican Party
that are pushing back against Trump.
You've got Democrats doing it too.
you know, so much so much for the party of peace.
They're, you know, instead of welcoming this,
they're sitting there in a very different ways to just, you know, piss on Trump.
Including their leader Charles Schumer.
Yeah.
And crucially.
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Now, so wait a minute, don't get me start on how much I hate emacrest because we're spent after you sit there.
It doesn't seem to be rent.
But now, I hate them all.
Yeah, I got, I got grudges, man.
I got a clutch.
But we got to stay on focus, a topic point of view thing here, which is the question is this.
About the relationship between our president and their prime minister now.
Yeah.
Obviously, there's been a narrative building for weeks here, and hell, they even were obviously lying a year ago when they pretended there was this division when really they were just planning the strike.
You know what I mean?
But they've been building the idea here for quite a while now, at least since a few weeks after the ceasefire, that no Trump is really, you know, trying to seek some kind of arrangement here.
but then the Israelis have this Trump card
that they can just start increasing their attacks in Lebanon
and ruin the thing.
And that happened a few times over the last few weeks
in the lead up to this thing.
Now it looked like Trump really meant at this time.
And it wasn't like the previous 39 times, right?
Like on the 40th one, no, we have a deal.
And we are kind of signing it.
We're moving forward with these talks.
We're punting on the nuclear program,
but we are reopening this.
straight and we are definitely doing this.
And then Netanyahu comes in and ruins the thing.
You know, I thought that Iran might tolerate the attacks yesterday,
but that it would take a real campaign today to get them to call off the talks.
I was wrong about that.
They went based on what had happened on Thursday.
They called off the talks for Friday or the signing ceremony and all that stuff, I guess.
But so then, what was that really mean?
you like, you know, I'm always very dubious about the reports of them fighting.
You know what I mean?
Like, I think they tell Barack Ravid to go and write that.
You know what I mean?
That like, I'll say this, but you do that or whatever.
But then this seems like a pretty big one.
But then am I supposed to really believe that Netanyahu is just giving Trump the middle finger
and yelling F you in his face and ruining Trump's big day because screw you?
You can't tell me what to do at all?
Like, I have trouble believing that.
But then again, it doesn't really make sense.
Well, he's the,
Trump told him,
go ahead and ruin my big day.
You know what I mean?
Either.
So what do you say?
Well, okay, well, here's what we know that happened last week ago,
when Iran had,
they'd drawn a line in the sand and said,
any further attacks on Beirut or the suburb Dahlia
will result in retaliation.
And Israel did it.
They had just like it was the lip, you know, middle finger to the face of the Iranians, like saying, yeah, yeah, you can tell us what to do? No, you're not. And then Iran's was ramping up to strike back. And the Trump administration did intervene and say, don't, don't, what will it take for us to get you to stop? And Iran basically, they laid out. They said, because these were the five, the five Iranian red lines were the stuff.
stumbling block that was preventing the MOU from being signed.
They said immediate sanction relief.
We want the assets unfrozen.
We want the blockade lifted.
We want our recognition of the Strait of Hormuz,
and we want ceasefire in Lebanon.
And Trump gave it to him.
That was the breakthrough.
I've said somewhat tongue-in-cheek that perhaps
Bibi Netanyahu deserves the Nobel Peace Prize
for bringing that apart, a bell.
Because we're not for Bibi,
that might not have happened, but it happened.
The other thing, though, that was going on at the same time
was the briefing that Trump got,
I think it was from Chris Wright, the Secretary of Energy,
who came in and said, we got a five-alarm fire.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is going to be,
it's going to be empty in about two weeks.
And we can't refill.
There's not enough oil out there to refill it.
and when it goes empty, the price of gasoline of oil is going to skyrocket.
We've been able to manage it up for the last four months by drawing out of the strategic petroleum reserve.
That's why I don't know about your area, but gas prices down here in Florida have come down about 70 cents.
They're still not where they were pre 28 February.
Well, I read on your site later that you said that if the stores go below us,
certain point, that then wrecks the infrastructure. They got to keep a certain amount of oil in there
pressure. It's actually like the inverse of the threat that they were making against Iran a few weeks
ago. As long as we keep up our blockade on their blockade and they can't get rid of their oil,
then their overcapacity is going to break all of their infrastructure and then they'll have to give in.
Well, three weeks later, it's our undercapacity is about to cause our infrastructure breakdown.
And that was why Trump gave it.
Yeah, yeah. I mean, and he admitted it.
I was, because I actually had been on a podcast three hours before that with Pepe Escobar.
And Pepey was, you know, saying, hey, I just got confirmation from a source in the United States.
And he laid out this whole, because I had written about it, but just drawing upon what was in the press.
Pepe then had a source confirm it that this was what was told Trump.
And then, lo and behold, Trump three hours later confirms it himself.
So, you know, they're not kidding.
This is, there's been a lot of whistling past the graveyard going on with respect to the oil shortage
and what are really the implications for the global economy.
But it's serious.
And we've been, we've been lying to ourselves.
We've been pretending, oh, we got this under control.
Oh, there's plenty of oil.
I mean, I've still seen people right.
Oh, how can you say that we're going to be?
Look at all the oil we produce.
Yeah, look at what we produce.
We don't produce the heavy crude that's,
needed to produce diesel, or at least what our refineries are set up to produce diesel from.
So it's just, you know, a lot of ignorance out there about this.
Well, you know, and on the opposite side of that, I mean, I was really kind of astounded to see
how much you obviously know already.
I mean, obviously you're looking up recent statistics, but you already obviously have a
deep kind of knowledge of how these things work when I'm reading on Sonor 21, all of your
stats about how much oil is blockaded in the Gulf, how long it's going to take to get to its
various ports around the world, you know, how the backup in those deliveries are going to affect
things, how the fact that they've been made to sit in the hot sun out there in the Persian
Gulf for four months, what's that, what that has done to the oil inside the tankers.
Now I see you have a piece here about the barnacles on the.
propellers and this absolute like specialty um you know diving and and you know robotics and
whatever kind of solutions are needed to get all these ships back to 100% again and um so i could tell
you like you're looking at the recent statistics but you know exactly where to look and which
statistics uh really count here and i think you said it best case scenario we're somewhere near
back to normal by the end of the summer and that's if a lot of
lot of magic wishes come true.
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, more likely we're looking at six months.
And, you know, when Trump has told me, we've got to do something to, you know,
get the oil flowing out of the Gulf.
And I guess even in Trump's sort of simplistic thinking, it's just, okay, we say it's open.
And man, the price is going to start flowing.
But as you pointed out, it's not just those physical things.
It's also the mines, the presence of mines, the insurance.
Right now you got Iranian ships.
They're flowing because they don't depend upon Lloyd's of London.
but the rest of the ship owners, they do.
And Lloyds of London is telling them,
you're not moving that ship until we've got to guarantee
that there are no mines out there.
And it was the Pentagon,
they went and told Congress in like April 15th,
they said, yeah, it'll take us up to six months
to clear the mines.
So you got all of these obstacles to the flow of oil.
So anybody that thinks is going to turn around quick,
not going to happen.
And what's so disturbing, though, is you think that the markets are free markets and that
they'd play fair?
Oh, hell no.
They are, it's the ultimate crooked casinos, man.
They're hiding what's going on.
They're pretending, oh, it's all going to be great.
Just put your money in here.
And it's not going to be great.
Yeah.
Hey, y'all, don't forget to check out my substack.
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Any great.
All right, so now,
uh,
well,
I mean,
there's so many consequences there in terms of,
of industry and energy and relations.
And as you say, corruption, when markets have been rigged so far one way,
there's going to be a lot of people figuring out how to take advantage of all that.
But as far as the ceasefire and all that goes, I mean, I saw that report this morning
and I guess Barack Ravid had it at Axios and Reuters had it,
that they had this new ceasefire there.
But so are we to really interpret that to mean?
Do you think that Trump got on the phone with Netanyahu and told him that,
look, this time I'm really pissed off and this time I demand that you enter into a ceasefire here
so that I can enter into mine or not?
Well, I think it's possible.
I do know what's going on behind the scenes militarily.
So, you know, two days before the invade, we attacked Iran on February 28, the U.S.
military started standing up what are known as cats, crisis action teams.
You had a cat at the Pentagon.
had a cat at Centcom in their operation center.
You had a cat out at Andrews Air Force Base.
And these were staff 24-7, seven days a week.
They're the ones that are running the orders, issuing the orders,
and monitoring what's going on.
And it's all for managing, you know, managing wartime operation.
Those have now been, those are now shut down.
they shut them down earlier this week.
So they're not operating.
So the way that means the United States is no longer on this war footing.
The one group I was told that is very, very busy in trying to get,
that is working 24-7 is what's called Air Combatant Command.
And what is their job?
Their job is to figure out how are we going to get all those F-35s, F-15s, F-16s,
A-10s, how are we going to get all those back to the United States?
So they're in the process really of pulling them out now.
And so Trump's got some leverage with B-B.
He can pull the Patriot missiles.
He can pull the Thads.
He said, you want to go on your own?
Go it on your own, but not with our stuff.
And he is being advised to do that.
The question is, will he go along with that advice?
Yeah.
I mean, that's where, you know, I have to,
when it comes to just speculation and inference,
I have to assume that they're still just working together
and there is no real divide there.
You know, it seems like they're the best of friends.
You know, I don't know, like,
how bad is Netanyahu ever going to really stomp on Trump's foot
and how mad at Netanyahu is Trump ever going to get, you know?
But let's shift away from Netanyahu,
because I don't know, did you see the comments by,
Natali Bennett on the Pierce Morgan show the other day.
He was, he was, he said, he said,
I think that was Ben Gavir said that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
But here's Nftali Bennett, who's supposedly the lefty,
the guy, you know, not a right-wing fanatic like BB Netanyahu.
He was excoriating Netanyahu,
and he was claiming he was going to be tougher on Iran than anything that,
you know, Iran's not going to live at peace with him.
in charge.
So my point...
He had a reputation as a liberal.
I thought he was always a right-wing nationalist like Netanyahu.
Well, we've yet to hear any politician with any standing in Israel stand up to say,
hey, this is, thank God that President Trump got this deal.
They're all blast in it.
So my point is that the majority of the Israeli public are just as bloodthirsty as BB,
if not more so.
even then though I can see again I'm totally just speculating here but it makes sense to me
that Trump and Netanyahu would have had this conversation that look I'm going to have to
enter into this deal essentially we lost the war my military is telling me there ain't no point
starting it back up again so we're cutting and running yeah and so therefore so are you
go ahead and throw your temper tantrum in your media go ahead and let your cabinet secretaries
stump their feet and whatever, but it is what it is?
I mean, what can Netanyahu really do about it, dude?
You know, he's going to, what, attack Tehran and force Iran to hit American targets and
drag us back into a war?
Like, he's not.
And I guess what I'm saying is, I don't think that Trump would have to read him the
riot act.
I think that they can just, they just are friends and work together on this.
So I don't really necessarily believe that Netanyahu's going very far off the reservation
or that Trump would really have a very hard time pulling him back if he tried to.
You know what I mean?
We'll find out here in the next couple of hours.
Yeah.
I mean, and it could be that actually we already did find out,
that the fact that Netanyahu is willing to bomb the crap out of Lebanon yesterday
was proof enough that he was willing to tell Trump FU.
But I guess I'm not quite ready to conclude that all the way.
You know, I don't know.
Well, yeah, but the key difference now is
prior to this week, the United States had a strong military presence there and was positioned that it could retaliate against Iran if necessary.
But what happened on June 9th and June 10th, those were the two days where Iran inflicted significant damage on U.S. military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, the Prince South Air Base, and Jordan.
and it did so using some Chinese missiles
that were being operated in tandem
with Pakistani military technicians
who were sitting side by side with Iran.
And that damaged,
while I haven't been read into these systems
and I've been just told in vague terms
that these apparently were multi-billion dollar systems.
that the United States had in the area
that were targeted and destroyed
the U.S. intelligence community believes
the only way they could have been hit
was with intelligence received
from the Chinese and the Russians.
And it did significant damage to U.S. capabilities.
I mean, that's so telling, right,
that Trump did not get thunderously loco, angry about that
and ordered the B-2s back out.
He backed down after that.
He was chicked, man.
at that point, like, ah, hell.
In fact, see this in your promising a peace deal 38 times up until then.
And then he began to mean it after that, it looks like.
Well, they also, it wasn't announced, but it was apparent what was going on.
So starting about June 1st, Central Command was trying to see if they could run.
They would basically put bait into the strait of hormones, like run a ship in there.
See what sites in Iran along the Strait of Hormuz or in Kempshah Island or in Bandur Abbas would light up,
where missiles might be fired from, where communication notes were that would be coordinating the movement and actions of Iranian troops,
and therefore they would then attack them.
So the United States started doing that, and then as soon as we hit them, the Iranians would turn around,
and they were shalacking us in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.
So it was in the course of that after about 11 days of that,
the U.S. realized, you know, we cannot militarily force open the Strait of Hormuz.
Right.
Because of what is this multi-layered defense that Iran has.
So, and that came in conjunction then with this severe damage they inflicted on the 10th of June.
And while all that was going on, on the 9th of June, the United Arab Emirates who had been in bed with the Israelis, they went to Tehran,
ostensa, reportedly carrying $3 billion in frozen funds that they were returning to Iran.
Then the next day, Qatar was there, and Qatar was negotiating.
And Qatar's role is important because today, before I came on your show, they're reporting that Qatar is the one that brokered the ringer.
renewed ceasefire between Hezbollah and Iran and Israel and working with Iran.
So, you know, there's a lot going on diplomatically behind the scenes that is with the ultimate goal to basically push the United States out of the Persian goal,
establish an Islamic security presence that will consist of Egypt, Burkia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan.
So lots going on.
Yeah.
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All right.
So one last thing here before I let you go.
I got to push your chops a little bit about that story, what, last week or two weeks ago, about the nuke.
Yeah.
On either made a nuke or maybe Pakistan gave them one or something.
I mean, that turned out to be bullshit, right?
No, no, no.
All I can tell you is what we were told by this Pakistani source.
The other things this Pakistani source told us was true.
And what he conveyed was this message was conveyed to Marco Rubio via the foreign minister of Pakistan.
And they said, one, we're going to suspend all talks on nuke.
not going to do that. We're not going to have a framework. And if you don't come back to the table,
we'll do a, we're going to detonate a, we're going to do a demonstration. We're going to show you
that we can't. Now, all I can tell you is, that's what the source was saying. Now, was the source
full of, full of crap? Maybe. Was that a bluff? Maybe. But what we know for sure is the United
States took it seriously, because it was right after that message was delivered that all of a sudden
And Donald Trump, instead of threatening to end civilization in Iran, was talking about,
you know, everybody, the ceasefire has sort of a different meaning in the Persian Gulf.
And, you know, he was talking conciliatory about Iran from May 30th up until about June 9th, June 10.
So that, like I said, it may have been not true, but the reality is the Trump administration believed it was true.
possibly.
I mean,
Trump says a lot of things.
Oh, no, no, but I'm saying,
go back and look at the change in tone
because he wasn't issuing the daily threats
against Iran.
He backed off of that.
I mean, on a logical basis, right?
Like, it doesn't make sense
that Iran was able to get an atom bomb together
somehow without everybody knowing.
And it doesn't make sense
that Pakistan's going to just hand one
in the middle of a war with the United States
because America's going to hold
a grudge about that if they did that.
And Russia and China have no interest in tearing up the last shreds of the non-proliferation
treaty and passing off an atom bomb to deny.
I can tell you is what the Pakistanis believed and what they were saying.
I got you.
I mean, and that's, you know, some people took it that Pepe and I were, we were pushing, you know,
they got to try to insert the nuke story into it.
And it wasn't that.
It was just this.
In fact, we had set up a new channel.
It was called Power Shift.
And it was headed up by a Pakistani American named Zulfiqar Ali,
and it had Peppy and I as sort of, you know, let's call it co-host.
We did three shows, and we talked about this.
We were taking that show yesterday, actually.
You know, that's now called, that's now called Transition Protocol.
Yeah, that was the show.
That's the guy, though.
Yeah.
Yeah.
But we had power shift.
Marco Rubio went to Google and got the power shift taken off
because he'd called and complained to the foreign minister of Pakistan.
He said, I thought our conversations were confidential.
Well, we didn't get it from the foreign minister of Pakistan.
We got her from somebody who was in a position to know what the foreign minister of Pakistan was saying.
So that vouched for us.
who said, okay, this, why would Rubio freak out like that if that actually wasn't true?
How do you know that Rubio said that to the Google fault?
When they went to find out, why the hell did we get canceled?
Oh, I see.
They said that they got a call from the State Department about it.
Yes, yep.
Good times.
Yeah.
Well, you're not paying attention to you, Larry.
Yeah, it's kind of attention I may not want.
That's the other thing.
But let's hope the peace holds.
Yes, absolutely.
It ain't over yet.
I got a relatively good feeling about this compared to some other things anyway.
Yeah.
At least we've got an agreement.
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
And as you delineated it, it includes America essentially admitting defeat hearing
and climbing all the way down on all their demands and all of that stuff, Washington, America,
you know what I mean.
Did you catch the irony of where Donald Trump signed the agreement?
Yeah, at Versailles.
I saw someone had a funny meme this morning of Mark Levin saying his transition to hit Larry
and is complete because it's Mark Levin complaining that his country has been betrayed at
Versailles and now he must get ridden.
I think it was Kurt Mills probably from a Urikan conservative.
That's all right.
Anyway, great to talk to you again, Larry.
Appreciate your time on the show, man.
always. All right, my friend. Thanks, Scott. Later. Bye-bye.
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