Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 7/27/23 Dave DeCamp on the Ukrainian Counteroffensive and America’s Escalations in the Pacific

Episode Date: July 30, 2023

Dave DeCamp was back on Antiwar Radio this week to discuss developments in Eastern Europe and the Pacific. They start with an update on Ukraine’s counteroffensive, examining how both sides are characterizing it. They then move over and discuss some of the new weaponry Washington is deploying to China’s near abroad.  Discussed on the show: “Putin Says Fighting in Southeastern Ukraine ‘Intensified Significantly’” (Antiwar.com) “The West feels gloomy about Ukraine. Here’s why it shouldn’t” (Washington Post) “Opera Buffa in Ukraine” (Substack) “US Marines Activate First Missile Battery Previously Banned by INF Treaty” (Antiwar.com) “US Tests Cargo Plane Missile System in the Pacific in Message to China” (Antiwar.com) Dave DeCamp is the news editor of Antiwar.com and the host of Antiwar News with Dave DeCamp. Follow him on Twitter @decampdave This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott’s interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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slash Scott Horton Show. Okay. And time to welcome back to the show. Antiwar.com's news editor, Dave DeCamp. He's also the host of anti-war news, which is almost copyright infringement, but I'll let you skate, dude. Welcome back to the show. How are you doing? I'm good, Scott. Thanks for having me back. Very happy to have you here. And we got a lot of bad news to talk about. Can we start with, I think the big breaking news is that Ukraine has launched. Is it correct? That's massive. second wave of their summer offensive against Russian positions in Zaporosia province there? Yeah, so that's what it looks like. So on Wednesday, the Russia's defense ministry said that they repelled a massive Ukrainian tank attack in the southern Zaporosia region.

And U.S. officials also, you know, told the media that this is the main thrust. Ukraine had a few of these brigades, these NATO-trained brigades, kind of waiting in the wings during the first few weeks of the counteroffensive or it's been a little, it started in early June. And these U.S. officials are saying that they've committed those brigades now and they're making it kind of sound like a final push, a final kind of last-ditch effort to gain some territory here. And Ukrainian officials are saying that the goal is to sever, you know,

the land bridge between Crimea and the Russian mainland. And again, according to Russia, they're saying they're repelling these attacks And Putin actually mentioned it on Thursday. He said that they're inflicting huge casualties on Ukraine. And looking at the battle lines don't look like they've really moved that much. Ukrainian soldiers that were talking to the New York Times on Wednesday said that they were making steady advances, but that they didn't make any kind of big breakthrough. So that's the situation now.

And, you know, this comes after, you know, kind of this whole narrative that Ukraine can can push back. Russia is completely gone in the Western media. You know, there's just been a report after report of how Ukraine has been losing and took very heavy losses and is barely making any gains. And over the weekend, there was a report in the Wall Street Journal that said Western officials did not believe Ukraine had enough training or equipment to dislodge Russian forces, you know, at all in this counteroffensive and that they were basically just hoping that they would push through, which is, you know, that lines up with, you know, what we learned leading

up to the counteroffensive. The discord leaks showed that the U.S. did not expect Ukraine to regain much territory. There's all sorts of media reports that said that. But you had Blinken and other Biden administration officials saying publicly, I, we've given them all that they need. They should be able to break through. But it turns out, you know, even they didn't believe that. And now, you know, who knows how many Ukrainians have died in this counteroffensive. And they're also blaming Ukrainian commanders now. There's other U.S. officials have been saying, oh, they're wasting their NATO training. You know, they've reverted back to Soviet tactics using just artillery and trying to, you know, sending out what they call sappers to demine these big mine fields that Russia has laid.

And they're saying that they want Ukraine to go harder. So it looks like Ukraine is going harder now to try to break through. So we'll see how this plays out. Ukrainians are saying, if this is successful, it should take one to three weeks. But, you know, it seems unlikely that they are going to have that success. Well, so a couple things about that. First of all, I did see this morning a claim in Sky News in the UK for what that's worth. Rupert Murdoch organization there claiming that the Ukrainians had made, had had some success.

I guess they were saying, I don't know how many miles exactly they were claiming they'd gotten. But there's also a new Seymour Hirsch article this morning where he talks to a couple of dissident intelligence officers who are saying that, you know, whatever the Ukrainians can demine in the daytime, the Russians replenish them all at night. They're getting nowhere at all and just getting, you know, completely blown up. So, and then, you know, we've been talking with Daniel Davis on the show and I've been reading him. And I think anybody can just picture the situation if somehow they succeeded in severings of. Broja and marched all the way to the sea, well, now they're surrounded and they're going to get killed anyway. They're going to lose anyway, assuming, you know, in other words, it might as well be a Russian tactic to let them make in advance and just lure them into the trap, because

we're still, we're talking about a corridor through territory that's completely controlled by Russia on either side, right? Yeah, yeah, that's a good point. If they break through, you know, how are they going to be able to hold off Russian forces that are surrounding them? And you mentioned that these U.S. officials saying or the intelligence official at Hearst spoke to saying that the Russians come back and lay the minds that they're demining, there was actually a report in the Kiev post. They spoke with Ukrainian soldiers and officers fighting on the front lines. And what they said was, we're gaining, you know, some, you know, square mileage here, but we don't think we can hold it is basically what they told them. So, yeah, the prospect just isn't looking good. And now talk to me

about this article from last week from the New York Times where they were openly complaining that, geez, we trained them on all this maneuver combined arms warfare. And just because they were getting blown to bits, now they're being cowards and moving slowly and crawling on their bellies. Even though they admit that, you know, we know they got no air cover and they're just getting torn to pieces out there. But anyway, back to the front. Yeah. I mean, this is really something. It really shows, I think, the attitude that the U.S. and, you know, the West has towards Ukrainian soldiers, their lives just don't seem to matter. They're basically saying that, you know, the Ukrainian commanders started being too cautious by not sending all, you know,

their armor into these minefields in the first few weeks of the counteroffensive. According to, you know, what U.S. officials are saying, Ukraine lost 20 percent of all of its equipment that it deployed to the battle. And that includes a lot of armored vehicles, you know, mainly because of huge mine fields. So after that, you know, they slowed down and they're trying to demine these fields and relying on artillery mainly. So it's basically artillery and trying to demine. And the U.S. is saying, no, no, no, we trained you how to integrate artillery with your infantry and your armored vehicles. You should be trying, you know, a big push. Again, saying that, you know, it doesn't, we don't care that, you know, about the casualty risk, just push through. And a point you

made that this is something it's interesting. Zulusini, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, has had some interesting interviews with the Washington Post and other media outlets recently, really, you know, hitting back at this criticism from the West saying, you guys would never do an offensive like this if you didn't have air superiority, let alone, I mean, they don't really have any air power at all. So whose doctrine are we fighting was the question he asked. He's like, are we using the NATO doctrine, but we don't have air superiority. So it's not a NATO doctrine. And, you know, you're telling us not to use Soviet or Russian doctrine. What are we supposed to be doing?

And, you know, it's just kind of revealing, I think, that you have this guy who's tasked with executing this war saying he said it's not feasible with the current equipment that they have. He's saying they need F-16s and that would make the difference. But at the same time, you have U.S. officials saying, well, that's not really going to make much of a difference if they get 50 F-16s anyway. So, you know, we're just trying to give them as much artillery and stuff as we can now. I think they just don't want it shown how susceptible F-16s are to Russian ground fire, anti-aircraft missiles, you know, they got a bunch of, you know, promotional videos for that thing that suggests the contrary, you know. I mean, it's really something like, because when Biden sent the cluster bombs, they said that they did that because they're running out of ammo.

You know, Anthony Blinken said that Ukraine would be defenseless without. these cluster bombs that we know we're going to kill and maim civilians for decades after this war and it's just really revealing you look at the military spending you know that the u.s has compared to russia and the u.s and the entire nato alliance is struggling to you know keep this war going yeah now on the attitude in washington dc i think this is so revealing by the way it's antiwar radio i'm scott horton i'm talking with dave de camp from antiwar dot com he's our news editor are there and he writes like 10 or 15 articles a day or something what's the real average was it not the real average these days is about six to eight he writes six to eight articles a day for you keeping up on

every single thing in the world and he does a podcast uh summing up the page for you that uh he puts out every night to anti-war news and anyway so we're talking about the war in ukraine of course the proxy war with russia and i'm sure you saw this day but i'm sure you saw this day but i'm sure many in the audience had missed it. I have to point out, David Ignatius, who's an opinion writer at the Washington Post, but is known, and people can look this up. I'm pretty sure it's in his Wikipedia and everything officially, that he's known as the man at the post closest to the CIA, which has got to be a tight race.

But, and he says here on July 18th, quote, for the United States and its NATO allies, These 18 months of war have been a strategic windfall at relatively low cost, parenthesis, other than for the Ukrainians. And he goes on, I'm sorry, I can't even say without laughing. He goes on to talk about, well, we've added Sweden and Finland to NATO, and Germany is now separated more from Russia economically, and he calls it a triumphal summer for the alliance. what do you make of that i mean yeah that's that's the attitude and if you remember that washington post report it wasn't ignatius but it was the washington post you know early in the war kind of summing up the view of of the u.s and most of its NATO allies you know they said for some in NATO you know the war uh basically if the war ended it would come at too high of a cost

for the alliance like they just wanted to keep this war going it was very clear from the beginning And now that Ignatius column, I think that is the view, as we know, they wanted to weaken Russia. And, you know, that's why, I mean, right now I'm very pessimistic about this thing ending anytime soon. You know, there's all these, the narrative now is, you know, it might be a stalemate, but that the U.S. and NATO would want to continue fueling this thing and not, you know, push for peace talks. there's another report recently there's been just kind of so many revealing reports just the narrative that the U.S. officials are putting out to the media is that if Ukraine doesn't regain any significant territory then we're not going to push them to negotiate we're just you know we can't give Russia a victory here so we just got to keep it going and I think that is what again that

Ignatius column that is the attitude oh well if we can't get a victory let's just keep fueling this thing. Let's just keep throwing Ukrainians into this meat grinder. You know, keep Russia bogged down. I think that's exactly what they want to do. And then on the Russian standpoint, you know, time is on their side. So they're going to keep going. So yeah, I think we're we have years ahead of us of this war, unfortunately. Yep. Hang on just one second. Hey, y'all, the audio book of my book, enough already. Timed and the war on terrorism is finally done. Yes, of course, read by me. It's available at Audible, Amazon, Apple Books, and soon on Google Play and whatever other options there are out there.

It's my history of America's War on Terrorism from 1979 through today. Give it a listen and see if you agree. It's time to just come home. Enough already. Time to end the war on terrorism. The audiobook. Hey, guys, I've had a lot of great webmasters over the years, but the team at Expanddesigns.com have by far been the most competent and reliable. Harley Abbott and his team have made great sites for the show and the Institute,

and they keep them running well, suggesting and making improvements all along. Make a deal with Expanddesigns.com for your new business or news site. They will take care of you. Use the promo code Scott and save $500. That's expanddesigns.com. Man, I wish I was in school so I could drop out and sign up for Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom instead. Tom has done such a great job on putting together a classical curriculum for everyone from junior high schoolers on up through the postgraduate level

and it's all very reasonably priced just make sure you click through from the link in the right margin at Scott Horton.org Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom Real history, real economics, real education and yet anyone listen to this show or any guest on it or anyone in this country could tell you what this

anonymous intelligence officer says to Seymour Hirsch in this piece this morning the reality is that the balance of power and the war is settled Putin has what he wants access to Crimea and the four eastern oblasts there Ukraine does not have them and cannot get them back

and that's it and so you know they don't have all of done yet they have pretty almost you know virtually all of Lujansk but they don't even have all of Donetsk, Zeprosia, and Kurson, but they will, or at least, certainly the Ukrainians are not going to be able to take back what the Russians already have with the amount of their defensive lines and so forth. If they were going to ever get any of that back, it's going to be at the negotiating table. You tried to take four, you can have two or something, right?

But everybody already knows. And this is what critics said from the very beginning, Noam Chomsky, for example. said more than a year ago, you know, a year and a half ago at the start of the war. Well, let's see. Either Russia wins outright, which is a catastrophe, or Ukraine wins outright, which is an impossibility, and will probably lead to the use of nuclear weapons if America gave them that much support to actually get it done, assuming that's even possible at all. Or the third option is negotiations at a table.

Should we do that now rather than later? and remember, as you covered, of course, Dave, Admiral Millie at the end of October. I said, you guys got a great advance there in Curzon and in Harkiv. And you ought to quit right now while you're as good as you're going to get. And they ignored him. Anthony Blinken and the diplomats overruled the Joint Chiefs advice. And so just keep fighting. Yeah.

And going back to that Hirsch piece, I think it was the intelligence official he spoke to, mentioned how Blinken, just the other day, he kind of, he's putting out this totally phony narrative that Russia, you know, has lost, that Russia isn't going to get what it wants. And then that official goes on to mention, well, he has this, you know, land bridge to Crimea. And yeah, he probably, they would probably want more territory in these oblasts that they control. And he mentioned something interesting saying, I don't know what the fate of Odessa is going to be. Because if you remember earlier in the war, there was some Russian generals saying that they basically wanted to take Ukraine's entire Black Sea coast. So that's another big question is, okay, this Ukrainian counteroffensive fails, then what is Russia going to do next?

And I think there's a chance they might go for Odessa and try to push into these oblasts and take advantage of Ukraine losing a lot of its troops in this counteroffensive. So, yeah, that might be what the next year kind of holds for us. And they had Harkiv and they lost it. They might very well try to take Harkiv back. Yeah, that's true as well. And so you go back to what Chomsky said and what we were all saying at the beginning, you know, negotiations in the beginning of the war and Russia wouldn't have controlled, you know, any of this territory that it's captured.

It would just be Crimea and those areas in the Dombas. But, you know, so how anybody's going to try to frame this as some kind of success, I guess only if, you know, your viewpoint is, oh, we're hurting, you know, we're inflicting pain on Russia and keeping them bogged down. If that's their view of success, and I guess it is a success. Yeah. Although, you know, there's that important quote from Pryozan, the head of the mercenary group, Wagner, who had complained, this goes back a couple of months before his attempted

push against the military command there, where he was saying, oh, geez, we've militarized Ukraine. This is completely backfired. Look at all the support, all the Western weapons and intelligence and everything pouring in there. We've made matters much worse, at least for what's left of Ukraine as far as from the Russian point of view. You know, that is true. And if, you know, you look at that recent NATO summit, you know, a lot of people were saying, oh, Ukraine was, you know, they didn't get what they want because they didn't get membership. But realistically, like, you know, we knew Ukraine wasn't going to get full NATO membership. but what they are getting is these countries and even some of them like France, that was more kind of pro ending this thing and, you know, negotiating, you know, they're starting to make these big long-term commitments. The EU is planning on creating this, you know, multi-billion dollar fund to keep arming Ukraine, you know, for the next few years. So they're, you know, and they're starting to negotiate these agreements with individual NATO countries to get in writing like, you know, similar to the U.S. and Israel.

Israel arrangement, kind of sign understanding that you'll get X amount of dollars over the next few years. So, yeah, I mean, even though they can't, might not be able to fuel this kind of artillery war that's going on, I think they're, they're all ready to keep arming Ukraine and keep it as this NATO bulwark on Russia's border. And, you know, the territorial control isn't really what's important right now to NATO. It's just about keeping Ukraine what it is, you know, this NATO outpost right on the Russian door. step there. Yep. Yeah, it's true. You know, the, um, as uh, pregozen said that this has redounded to the Americans and, and Britain's, you know, priorities over the Germans, for example, uh, this whole time. They've added two new NATO members and all these things. So if it's a question of, um, strategically weakening Russia, as they keep putting it, we're getting such great bang for

our buck here. This is the cheapest war we've ever fought and all this stuff, you know? Yeah, and that's what you hear from people like Lindsey Graham and all the Hawks in Congress. You know, they're saying, oh, this is a low cost for us, you know. We should just keep funneling money into this war and for as long as we can. And these young Ukrainians getting blown to bits literally just belong in parentheses. Well, I mean, yeah, I mean, they're getting blown to bits. But anyway, Well, let's talk about the bad news in the Pacific Ocean then, too, Dave. I'm not sure which order. Let's do Tomahawks in the Philippines because that's the thing that I'm most mad about this morning.

Yeah, so the U.S. Marine Corps has activated a Tomahawk missile battery. And this is a missile system, you know, a land-based ground-launched missile system that was previously banned under the INF Treaty that the Trump administration withdrew from in 2019. And this is kind of what it's all about, why the U.S. withdrew was to create these missile systems. so they could station them near China. And the Tomahawk missiles have a range of about 1,000 miles, which was banned under the INF for ground-launched missiles. And, you know, the U.S. accused Russia of violating the INF Treaty

by developing this new cruise missile. And from what I understand from the arms control people you've spoke with, the U.S. might have had a legitimate grievance there. But Russia also had a legitimate grievous with these Aegis ashore missile systems. systems, you know, anti-ballistic missile systems that the U.S. put in Romania and Poland, because they use these MK-41 launchers that can fit Tomahawks. Well, the new battery that the Marine Corps just activated also uses the MK-41 missile launcher, so, you know, Russia's worries were not unfounded. And it was actually, I was just looking back, you know, a few weeks after the U.S.

formally withdrew from the INF Treaty in August 2019. Just a few weeks after that, they were testing these MK41 ground-launched missiles, you know, with this range. So this was, you know, the plan all along. And now the treaty banned not just tipping them with nukes, but banned the deployment of the missiles themselves in Europe at least. But then I guess I need to reread that treaty. It banned them from the Pacific too, I guess. Well, the Soviets did have, well, let's see, INF was 87.

So, yeah, so the Soviets, they do have an East. coast in the Pacific, right? Yeah, banned them all together, like the development testing and totally banned them. And that's the thing, you know, the Trump administration, even if, you know, you say you wanted to, they basically wanted to pull out of this so they could make these missiles to put them in Asia. And Russia has offered him a moratorium on the deployment of INF missiles in Europe. And the U.S. has not taken Russia up on that offer. Yeah.

But wait, that can't be right because, you know, they use Tomahawks in Iraq for, example they have ship fired tomahawks and that kind of thing so yeah ship fired but not uh ground launched oh i see yeah yeah so it's specifically ground launched missiles and uh got you so these ones that they're putting in the philippines and wherever else over there as far as we know they're not putting in nukes yet that they're installing the launch systems is that right yeah so and they haven't been deployed yet to the philippines or japan but that is the plan um so they just activated this first battery at this Marine Corps base in California. And I know, yeah, there's no plans right now for them to be tipped with nuclear weapons,

as far as I know. So they're supposed to be in California, what, anti-ship missiles for the China's impending invasion of California? Yeah, yeah. Well, the plan is to eventually deploy them to Japan, Okinawa, the Philippines. They want to deploy them along what they call the first island chain so they can hit, you know, the Chinese mainland. It's all part of this, you know, military buildup in the region there.

but they only have a range of how many miles a thousand oh okay interesting i'm talking with dave de camp from antiwar dot com dave what's the rapid dragon you're writing about here yeah so this is this missile system that allows you know u.s military cargo planes like the c130 to launch you know long range cruise missiles that are you know normally uh only fired by you know heavy bombers and basically what it is is it's like a pallet that they drop out of a cargo plane with a parachute and I guess there's some sort of firing mechanism in the pallet and it can fire the missile from a cargo plane. And this is something it's new. They tested it for the first time in 2021.

And in November 22, they tested it off the coast of Norway up in the Arctic. And when they tested it, you know, a U.S. military official in charge of the operation actually called it an intentional provocation aimed at Russia, which I thought was interesting that he just came out and said that. So the U.S. just tested another one during big drills that they held in the Pacific. You know, it's not clear exactly where they held it, but obviously this is aimed at China. And they got this general Mike Minnihon.

He's the head of Air Mobility Command, which is like the Air Force in charge of transporting things. So they have all the C-130s and C-17 cargo planes. and he's saying this means now that the enemy or however you put it the adverse adversary should has to be afraid of our cargo planes now and he's like we have these c130s all over the world all of our allies have them you know they should be scared of these cargo planes now so yeah that that's what that's about and this guy minion made headlines recently earlier this year he was the one he wrote this memo to his officers predicting that the

U.S. is going to be at war with China in 2025. Same guy, huh? And now, so this is an important phenomenon that's been going on right where they take all platforms and improve them, and I'd have to get an expert to ask, but it seems like they must be skating up against one treaty or another with this, turning their cargo planes into, as he said, by the hundreds and thousands around the world, into potential nuclear cruise missile platforms like this. I don't know.

They must be in violation of at least the spirit of Newstart with this. And it's the same sort of thing as they did when they improved the proximity fuses on the nukes. That meant they could use the lower class of nukes directly on enemy silos, freeing up even more nukes for more cities and other civilian targets and that kind of thing, as they did, I guess, in the Obama years. So this is all kind of too cute. by half when you're talking about nuclear weapons. It sounds funny, but it sounds like they're skirting the treaties here is what they're

trying to do. Yeah, exactly. And just speaking of nuclear weapons, a big thing happened recently in Asia. The U.S. docked a nuclear-armed submarine in South Korea. For the first time since H.W. Bush, right? For the first time since 1981. Oh, really? And this is the first time since H.W. Bush that U.S. nuclear weapons were in South

Korea because the U.S. pulled their tactical nukes out in 91. But this is the first time. And I guess their ship-based nukes. He also took them off the ships. But this is the first nuclear sub, you're saying. Yeah. And, you know, this is just an intentional provocation, just for the sake of provocation, because we know the nature of these nuclear-armed submarines. They could be anywhere, and they have really long-range missiles. So there's not like a strategic value to, you know, placing them in South Korea. The only purpose is to say, hey, look, we got nukes right here. We'll nuke you. And this is about North Korea, obviously. The president of South Korea, Yun, who came in last year,

said he was going to take a harder line against North Korea. And since then, the U.S. and South Korea have resumed these massive war games. And North Korea's launching all these missiles. But this is also about China, you know, the U.S. flexing their muscle more in the region. You know, they're kind of, I think, giving Yun whatever he wants just because they could threaten China as well with all this stuff. So, yeah, the situation in Korea, I mean, it seems like it's not getting much attention, but it's very volatile again, unfortunately. Well, and the North has been testing missiles too, right?

Including cruise missiles, right? Yeah, and ballistic missiles, ICBMs, and, you know, what they say are ICBMs. So, yeah, it's just not a good situation. Well, you're just not thinking like an admiral. We have them to hold over the head of our friends, the South Koreans, and Japanese too. So that's what that's about. That's why you'll never command the Navy, Dave, again.

Yeah, I guess so. All right, you guys, well, he's our news editor at anti-war.com and the host of anti-war news. Thanks so much again for your time, Dave. Thanks, Scott. Thanks for having me. All right, you guys, and that's anti-war radio for today. I'm your host, Scott Horton.

I'm editorial director over at anti-war.com. And I'm the editor of the book, Hotter than the Sun. Time to abolish nuclear weapons. Seriously, before it's too late, guys. And you find my full interview archive at Scott Horton.org, and I am here every Thursday from 2.30 to 3 on KPFK, 90.7 FM in L.A. See you next week.